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Back at it.


The Phillies sit comfortably enough in second place in the NL East, nowhere near the division lead and probably none too worried about it. As you doubtless recall, just last season they finished third in their own division, 14 games back of the leader, and who was that we all saw in the World Series in October? The Phillies hold the first NL Wild Card spot at the moment.

The Phillies offense has been just average, and the weakest link has been shortstop Trea Turner who signed an enormous contract this winter that binds him to the Phillies through the year 2525, if man is still alive. It may be slightly concerning seeing a 30 year old player lose 40 points across the board on his slash line, and then contemplate the fact that this contract has ten years and more than $270 million left to run. And Bryce Harper seems to have experienced something of a power outage, although his batting numbers otherwise look the same as always. The Phillies will be without centre fielder Brandon Marsh, who is having a very nice season, but he bruised his knee crashing into an outfield wall last week.

The Phillies are pretty good at keeping the other team from scoring, despite the presence of some defensively challenged individuals in their daily lineups. Lately Bryce Harper has been learning to play first base, allowing Kyle Schwarber to DH (and, most importantly, getting Schwarber's glove off the field.). None of their pitchers are having a particularly great season, but everyone's been pretty good.

The Story So Far

After their disastrous visit to Fenway at the beginning of May, The Blue Jays thought they had righted the ship by sweeping the Pirates in Pittsburgh. And then they went to Philadelphia to wrap up the road trip.

Tue May 9: Toronto 4 Philadelphia 8 - The Jays took the early lead when Bichette doubled in Kiermaier in the third, but a two run homer from Castellanos gave the Phillies a lead they would maintain for the rest of the game. Alek Manoah threw 94 pitches to just 20 hitters and was chased in the fifth trailing 3-1. The Jays would draw closer twice - once on a Bichette homer, again on an error and a hit batter with the bases loaded - but every time they did the Phillies responded with runs of their own.

Wed 10 May: Toronto 1 Philadelphia 2 - Gausman and Wheeler locked up in an excellent pitcher's duel - a solo belt from Belt in the fifth was the only scoring until Romano came on in the ninth to close it out. Singles from Harper and Castellano and a Realmuto double tied the game - the Phillies almost won it then and there but Guerrero threw out Castellano at home plate. So we went to extras, and with runners on first and second with one out, Harper hit a sharp comebacker. Mayza threw to second to start the DP but Bichette's relay to first went wide and Sosa barely beat Guerrero's throw home to win it.

Matchups!

Tue 15 Aug: Wheeler (9-5, 3.74) vs Kikuchi (9-4, 3.53)
Wed 16 Aug: Nola (9-8, 4.49) vs Gausman (9-6, 3.04)
Philadelphia at Toronto, August 15-16 | 208 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Chuck - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 02:42 PM EDT (#434303) #
Trea Turner who signed an enormous contract this winter that binds him to the Phillies through the year 2525, if man is still alive

Of course, by then the middle-infield pairing will be Zager and Evans with Turner having been moved to 3B. They will have desperately sought out a first baseman named Chance just for the then six hundred year old wordplay. Turner to Evans to Chance.

Yeah, I may have tried too hard on this one.

scottt - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 03:01 PM EDT (#434304) #
Turner, incidentally, is their hottest hitter, hitting .333 with a .989 OPS in August so far.

scottt - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#434306) #
Also of note, Harper had been playing 1B of late so that Alec Bohm can move to 3B which let them sit the light hitting Rodolfo Castro, but Harper came out of the game on Thursday with back spasms and has so far been limited to DH again.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#434307) #
"None of their pitchers are having a particularly great season"

Fangraphs' FIP begs to disagree. Zack Wheeler's 4.3 fWAR is behind only Gausman's 4.4.

Tonight is a study in contrasts. Wheeler 3.74 ERA, 3.06 FIP. Kikuchi 3.53 ERA, 4.52 FIP.

The biggest reason for Kikuchi having the ERA advantage is stranding runners. League average is 76%. Kikuchi has bettered that every month but July's 75%. Wheeler has been worse every month until August where he's stranded 100%. However for Wheeler his 3.75 August ERA comes with a 6.44 FIP and -0.1 fWAR.

So what have I learned? If you want a good FIP/fWAR, do not strand runners. Oh yeah, I also learned something a while back. A :) belongs at the end of my conclusion, otherwise someone will invariably think I was serious.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#434309) #
Chapman sits again. Probably best to just give him tomorrow off too so he gets a nice little 5 day break.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#434310) #
Fangraphs' FIP begs to disagree.

Who cares? FIP is a terrible tool to assess effectiveness. Its only use is in predicting the future. Which is certainly not nothing.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#434311) #
Zach Wheeler's K/BB ratio is 6.20, which leads the National League.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#434312) #
Is FIP even good at predicting the future?
Gerry - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#434313) #
Bichette will DH in Buffalo tonight. Trevor Richards and Chad Green will pitch in that game also.
Gerry - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#434314) #
However....tonights Buffalo game is in doubt due to the weather. Bo would also stay and play SS in game two, tomorrow or Thursday.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#434315) #
Is FIP even good at predicting the future?

Nothing is good at predicting the future! But I do think a substantial gap between FIP and ERA (like Gausman and Manoah in 2022) is a good reason to peer under the hood and try to see if anything interesting is going on (like the ridiculous BABiP against Gausman last season.)

I have an ancient prejudice against FIP that I should own up to. But it behaves as if a strikeout is better than a popup to the second baseman. In terms of desired outcomes, the reverse is true.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 04:41 PM EDT (#434317) #
Romano back, Pearson down
Nigel - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 04:47 PM EDT (#434318) #
Isn't FIP really telling you whether someone's ERA has been achieved with a degree of luck or, at least, a degree of unlikely to be repeatable events. That's different than FIP telling you whether someone has been good or bad or will be good or bad in the future. In other words, Kikutchi has been good this year - his runs against (earned and otherwise) tells us so. You can't take that away from him. But, FIP is telling us that those results were achieved with a degree of sequencing luck such that his stranded rate is unsustainably high. That doesn't tell us much about the future unless you are extrapolating that his performance in the past will continue in the same manner into the future.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#434319) #
FIP is absolutely a measure of current effectiveness, not a prediction of the future.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 05:42 PM EDT (#434320) #
"But it behaves as if a strikeout is better than a popup to the second baseman"

Whereas other measures mught consider a squib up the baseline worse than a screaming liner to the alley.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#434321) #
Except Magpie has a good point. IFFB are about as good as strikeouts. So why are they not incorporated into FIP? Cameron wrote an article 10 yrs ago asking that very question. He also noted Tango incorporates IFFB into his version of FIP.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#434322) #
Bo playing for Buffalo tonight.
scottt - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#434323) #
Not really. A pitcher who's good at generating ground balls can lead the league in ERA years after years regardless of FIP.

FIP is mostly the K/rate, the BB/rate mixed with the HR/rate.
Of those 3, the HR rate is a factor that can variate randomly.

Incidentally, Kikuchi has allowed a ton of HR which is why his FIP isn't that good.
The odd solo HR isn't a huge deal.

scottt - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#434324) #
Gerry beat you by over an hour.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#434325) #
FIP is absolutely a measure of current effectiveness, not a prediction of the future.

Well, not a very good one. Last year it claimed, if that indeed is what it does, that Kevin Gausman was the most effective pitcher in the AL.

He wasn't. Maybe he should have been. Maybe, if there was any justice in the universe, he could have been. But he wasn't.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 07:09 PM EDT (#434326) #
You're making the poor assumption that ERA is not as or more misleading.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#434327) #
I remember the Manoah draft year, a number of people really liked Corbin Carroll. The one player a number of people didn't like was Bryson Stott. They were right about Carroll.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#434328) #
This is going to quickly turn on the semantic (baseball) definition of effectiveness.
mathesond - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#434329) #
I may very well be wrong, but I don't think Magpie said anything about ERA.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#434330) #
Well if we're goong with the "all stats are meaningless" angle then sure
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#434331) #
On the merits/demerits of the current front office, it should be noted that via trade and free agency, they’ve constructed arguably the best rotation in baseball in Gausman / Berrios / Bassitt / Kikuchi / Ryu. They’ve done this without deploying all that much in the way of resources (cash and prospects). And while Manoah has done his best to sabotage the rotation.

Kikuchi looks incredible of late. Power stuff with life, FB/breaking ball, good control, confidence on the mound.
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#434332) #
Buffalo's game was rained out.

The staff ace needs run support.
mathesond - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#434333) #
Well, I can't speak to where you or anyone else is goong with it, but I believe it is possible that stats can have some uses while still being flawed, and vice-versa.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#434334) #
Vladdy…grrr
Nigel - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:10 PM EDT (#434335) #
Greenfrog - I'm with you on giving props to the FO for assembling this starting rotation but I don't think that you can say that they've done it without it costing. The Jays have an expensive (by any standard) starting rotation.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#434336) #
I believe it is possible that stats can have some uses while still being flawed, and vice-versa.

Indeed. They all tell us something, and we can argue away happily about what that something happens to be.

But what they tell us is always going to be a small part of a much larger whole. Probably best not to ask too much of any one of them.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#434337) #
Yeah — the rotation is not cheap. But the terms and AAV on those contracts are really not all that bad when viewed as a whole. Especially when you consider what top starting pitchers have been obtaining in free agency of late (Scherzer, Verlander, Bauer, deGrom, Rodon).

Pete Walker probably deserves a lot of credit for the current performance of the rotation. Their collective work has been impressive.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#434338) #
The run support the Jays have been giving to their SPs has been pathetic.
Nigel - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#434339) #
Last time I checked, MLB wide average OPS was around .725. The Jays are rolling with exactly 3 hitters in the lineup above that.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#434340) #
Two on, none out. Might be the last best chance for the Jays right here.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#434341) #
Vladdy…grrrrrr
Four Seamer - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#434342) #
GIDP, Jr. strikes again.
Kasi - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#434343) #
Look Vlad just sucks. You can run out all the peripherals with things like hard hit rate and all but the results just aren’t there. And unlike others he brings nothing on the bases and little defensively. He should feel bad for this horrible season he’s producing,
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#434344) #
Maybe VGJ could try taking some more pitches. Work the count a bit and then shorten his stroke with two strikes. Might get some more walks, too. Right now he’s swinging very early in the count and often swinging at borderline pitches.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#434345) #
I guess everyone's rested, so it's not the worst, but I'd still like to see Kikuchi coming out for another inning on 84 pitches and dealing.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#434346) #
The Jays are rolling with exactly 3 hitters in the lineup above that.

Their normal lineup actually features just two (or three) hitters below that. Hey, injuries happen.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#434347) #
Agreed uglyone, but with this 2-gamer bookended by off-days you knew Kikuchi was done.

Only the Mets started this season with a more expensive rotation, and no team spends a higher % of its payroll than the Jays on its rotation. They spent two top 100 prospects to acquire Berrios.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#434348) #
I'd still like to see Kikuchi coming out for another inning on 84 pitches and dealing.

Me too. I think, even more than the pitch count, the current managerial obsession with giving the relief pitcher a clean inning is to blame.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#434349) #
yeah Magpie - I actually think RP can thrive off of coming in with runners on, as long as it's not all the time and not like bases loaded no outs every time. I wouldn't mind seeing us challenge the RP a bit more like that.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:54 PM EDT (#434350) #
I’m OK with it in a 1-1 game with a deep and rested bullpen (that now includes Romano). And if they’re going to use Yimi in the seventh, I want him coming in without runners on base.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#434351) #
Vladdy is good, he just isnt elite. He's fantastic he just isn't the main core peace.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#434352) #
Agreed with the broadcasting crew that the home plate ump has done a good job tonight.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#434353) #
two top 100 prospects to acquire Berrios.

Fun fact: Austin Martin is seven days younger than Vlad Guerrero.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#434354) #
Vlad just sucks.

You can't say that. You need to keep something in reserve to describe the DeJongs of this world.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#434355) #
So who plays 3B if they pull DeJong? Biggio?
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#434356) #
The nice thing about the Jays rotation is that they are controllable for around the right length of time. The team is getting prime seasons from the SPs, but they aren’t saddled with them beyond that. And apart from Ryu’s stint on the IL, they’ve been healthy (and scandal-free). Compare that to other teams’ huge investments in players like deGrom and Rodon and Bauer.

As World Series champion GM Anthopoulos likes to say (quoting Warren Buffett), I would rather pay a fair price for a wonderful asset, than pay a wonderful price for a fair asset.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:11 PM EDT (#434357) #
Hicks, baby.
Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#434358) #
Hicks is the exact type of pitcher Walker has worked wonders with, go for the swing and miss stuff and get them pumping the zone. The Jays love athletic deliveries.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#434359) #
I'm still a Lukes fan. Hope he gets a legit chance before we lose him.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#434360) #
So who plays 3B if they pull DeJong? Biggio?

Schneider, probably.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#434361) #
Redemption time for Vladdy?
Mike Green - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#434362) #
Clutch HBP.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#434363) #
He tried so hard to get out of the way, too!
uglyone - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#434364) #
Honestly felt good about Biggio drawing a walk there even if he hadnt got hit.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#434365) #
Vladdy helped out in this inning with the patient walk. Good job.
Chuck - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#434366) #
Interesting managing from Thomson. Schwarber was the last out but he stays in LF. The game is tied and he opts for one of his weaker relievers.
lexomatic - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#434367) #
Wow. I didn't realize DeJong had been THAT bad with the Jays. Probably made him lose actual contracts. I imagine he's only getting NRIs for next year.
The Lukes PH is pretty much a kicker.

uglyone - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#434368) #
you mean 3 singles and 0 walks in 41 plate appearances is bad?
uglyone - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#434370) #
That's a good win.
greenfrog - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#434371) #
Romano is feeling it again. Stuff looked great.
lexomatic - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#434372) #
you mean 3 singles and 0 walks in 41 plate appearances is bad?
I was thinking about the 16 strikeouts as a hitter with 0 walks and only 3 singles in those 41 appearances.
It's a BRUTAL stretch. And obviously he's not THAT bad, but I could see him just being released when Bichette comes back.
uglyone - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#434373) #
Yeah it's been ugly. Thought he was an easy pick over Espinal for the playoffs but i'm not sure anymore.
Gerry - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#434374) #
How much confidence will the Jays have in Bichette's knee when he comes back? If the injury could come back then De Jong has to stick around.
hypobole - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#434376) #
Mclanahan getting TJ. Unlikely he'll be back before 2025.
scottt - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 10:15 PM EDT (#434377) #
Exactly. At least the defense is good enough to support the pitching.

In a couple of weeks, they add 2 players. Maybe Chad Green and who ever goes down now.
The 3rd catcher is also a possibility but they don't seem to need him now even though Jansen is banged up.

That was some nice pitching.

Biggio is playing great now, but I still like him in a platoon role.

ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 10:23 PM EDT (#434378) #
It was good luck that Biggio got hit by a pitch because the Jays can't seem to get a run any other way with the bases loaded.
92-93 - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 11:22 PM EDT (#434379) #
The Mariners closer Munoz, pitching for the 3rd time in 4 days, throws a career high 42 pitches and blows a 3-run lead in the 9th. The Royals comeback got stalled by some terrible baserunning, so they're tied heading to the 10th.
Jacob - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 04:53 AM EDT (#434380) #
Hi Folks! It's been years since I posted on this site but thanks to all of you for keeping me entertained with your posts. Ok...

As of August 15th, by Baseball-Reference bWAR, Vlad Jr ranks behind all other Blue Jays starting position players (including both Kirk and Jansen) and by Fangraph's fWAR, he even ranks behind Davis Schneider, sitting roughly in the same bin as Ernie Clement and Tyler Heineman. While bWAR and fWAR get their values from different shapes of data, it seems Vladdy's defence is so poor it undermines any positive contributions from his offence.

If we focus only on contributions from offence, Fangraph rates him as the 14th overall first baseman - roughly in a bin with Alec Bohm, Triston Casas and Josh Naylor. Rough season? Sure, but if we look at 2022 his offensive output was still far from the top 1B, roughly in the same bin as Luis Arraez and Christian Walker at the 7th best 1B in terms of only offensive output. Throw in defensive value and in 2022 he ranks as the 10th best 1B sandwiched between DJ LeMahieu and Anthony Rizzo.

We can argue all day about the construction of bWAR, fWAR and other one number efforts to measure a player's value but it seems what these numbers are suggesting is that Vlad Jr has been an average to slightly above average first baseman. That's conditional on position. Put him in the universe of players and he was bookended by Mark Canha and Jorge Mateo in 2022 and is currently sandwiched by Alex Call (?) and Andrew Vaughn as the 121st best player in baseball by fWAR. The exercise looks pretty similar if looking at Vlad's 2019 and 2020 seasons.

Is it time that we think of Vladdy as just a guy and not a GUY? Anyone thinking that a change in voice might help him like it has seemed to have helped Cody Bellinger?
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 06:40 AM EDT (#434381) #
Anyone thinking that a change in voice might help him

Guillermo Martínez could be the fall guy.

Magpie - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#434382) #
As of this morning, there is exactly one major league team that is allowing less than 4 runs per game, and that would be the Toronto Blue Jays. The 2015 Jays scored more runs than any other team in the majors; the 2023 team has allowed fewer.

In sports, seeing something happen is generally more fun and exciting than preventing things from happening. Winning 2-1 is an evening of stress and anxiety. Winning 7-5 is a party.

Incidentally, the early returns on the renovations at the RC are suggesting that the Dome has changed quite a bit in character and become a park that suppresses offense. The Jays have scored 4.14 runs per game at home, 4.79 n the road; they've allowed 3.74 runs at home, 4.21 on the road. Overall, the Jays and their opponenets are scoring 7.88 runs per game at the RC, 8.93 per game elsewhere. Small sample size warnings must apply - I'd want to see a few hundred games in the modified configuration, and we only have about 60.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 08:12 AM EDT (#434384) #
Is it time that we think of Vladdy as just a guy and not a GUY?

It's definitely time to stop thinking about him in such a way that we're already drawing conclusions about the shape and form of his career. He's 24 years old. Call me in five years.
Jacob - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#434385) #
Ha! Ha! How about I write to you the next time I think about how the Jays should allocate their salary (and other) resources. Not sure my opinions are worth the cost of a long distance call.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 08:36 AM EDT (#434386) #
Go for it!

Hey, that's why Ross Atkins gets the big money. It's his job to make the best guess as to what the future is going to look like. But nobody knows anything!
hypobole - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#434388) #
He's 24 years old. Call me in five years.

If you are a Vlad fan instead of a Blue Jays fan, that's perfectly reasonable. But the Jays only control Vlad for 2 more seasons beyond this one. The Jays are built to win now. If Vlad explodes and starts living up to his abilities in 4-5 years, wonderful for him and whatever team he is playing for. But highly doubt that will be the Jays.

Atkins traded for Brandon Drury in 2018. 4 years later he put up a 123 OPS+, 2.6 WAR season. What good did that do if you are a Blue Jays fan?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#434389) #
Where Vlad has faltered Bo has over-delivered. At least theres that.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#434390) #
But the Jays only control Vlad for 2 more seasons beyond this one.

That's great, because they don't pay me enough money to start thinking about 2026 today. When you're as old as me, the "future" is just a hypothetical construct anyway.
Polite Nate - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#434391) #
I think it was around this time last year that Bo started to turn things around - up until then he was the one who looked washed up.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#434392) #
I didn't like pulling Kikuchi either but it's the way John Schneider (and/or the Jays FO) likes to manage for some reason. I don't understand allocating $87M to the starting rotation in 2023 and being so giddy to go to the bullpen every night. I guess they have their analytics and put all their weight on that. If they make the playoffs, combined with how deep the pen figures to be when everyone is healthy, then that approach could work in October. Frustrating to do it so often during the regular season though.

Despite the early hook, Kikuchi has been excellent this season. You knew with the contract they gave him that they envisioned something a lot greater for him than what he had shown prior to that. Started off horribly (2022) but maybe they were able to fix him after all.
John Northey - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:56 AM EDT (#434393) #
I fully expected Kikuchi to be pulled when he was. He was starting to show signs of weakness giving up a run, plus the heart of the lineup was due. Mix that with a rested bullpen and there was no need to push it. I suspect he'd have been out for the 7th if the pen was gassed.
bpoz - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#434394) #
Thanks for explaining that the Dome suppresses offense Magpie. This suppression is due to the OF configuration except LCF alleys 375' reduced to 357' RFC 375 to 366 and CF 400 to 397.

Varsho & KK have less power than Teo and Gurriel. But the road games O is better than the home O.

Other than Manoah our rotation is V good. The pen is better too I think.

So we don't know why. Are the fences higher?
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#434395) #
It’s not just pitch count that matters. Those were stressful innings for Kikuchi (thanks to the weak Jays offense). It might have been different had he been breezing along with a 6-1 lead.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#434396) #
On a more positive note, the Jays relievers are 4th in the majors by ERA and have been even better than that the past few months. Got me thinking, when was the Jays pen this good? Thought of the Henke years, especially the Henke/Ward combo.

Jays were 4th in 1985, but never managed to finish that high the rest of Henke's time here through 1992. But 1993 was great, with the Duane Ward, Mark Eichhorn, Danny Cox group chewing up a lot of excellent innings. They ended as the 2nd best bullpen in the majors that season.

Then I found the one. The 2008 Jays bullpen had the only sub-3 ERA in the majors. Scott Downs 70.2 IP, 1.78 ERA. Carlson, Tallet, Ryan averaged 58 IP with 2.25, 2.88, 2.95 ERA's. League and Wolfe with a combined 55 IP, with 2,18/2.45 ERA's. The only #1 finish AFAIK.
92-93 - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#434397) #
In his post-game interview, Schneider said something along the lines of Kikuchi being gassed after leaving it all out on the mound in the 6th.

At this point last season, Bo looked more lost at the plate than Vlad does now. He was hitting .259/.300/.427.

Vlad might never be more affordable on a long-term extension than he will be this offseason.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#434398) #
Ballparks are changeable things. The Dome by the lake has generally helped the offense - over the thirty or so years it's been open, the Jays have scored and allowed about 700 more runs at home than they have on the road. That's not that big a deal, and in the very small sample that is any single season, anything can happen. Sometimes the team scores/allows 126 more runs at home (2001); sometimes they score/allow 77 more runs on the road (2015.) So here's how everyone has hit away from home in 2023...

             Split    G    PA      AB    R     H   2B  3B  HR  RBI   BB    SO    BAVG     OBP     SLG    OPS                                                                          
Bichette     Away    55    250    238   30    79   15   1   8   31   10    48    .332    .364    .504    .868
Guerrero     Away    60    270    245   31    72   13   0  13   40   19    40    .294    .356    .506    .862
Chapman    Away    62    262    230   35    64   19   1   9   28   30    77    .278    .366    .487    .853
Merrifield   Away    58    236    219   28    69   12   0   7   31   14    43    .315    .356    .466    .822
Belt         Away    41    170    142   22    33   10   0   6   19   27    65    .232    .353    .430    .783
Varsho       Away    63    241    220   29    55   10   1  10   31   17    56    .250    .300    .441    .741
Kiermaier    Away    52    169    157   22    44    6   2   3   18   10    28    .280    .325    .401    .727
Jansen    Away    42    144    130   16    26    7   0   8   24   10    37    .200    .278    .439    .716
Springer    Away    59    264    241   37    62   10   1   7   24   19    42    .257    .316    .394    .710
Biggio    Away    43    122    110   21    24   4   0   5   11    8    32    .218    .295    .391    .686
Kirk    Away    48    165    143   9    32   4   0   0   12   18    14    .224    .327    .252    .579
Espinal    Away    32    82     72   10    13   2   0   1   6    7    17    .181    .272    .250    .522
                                                                       
And here's how they've hit at home sweet home.
             Split    G    PA      AB    R     H   2B  3B  HR  RBI    BB   SO    BAVG     OBP     SLG    OPS 
                                                                                                                                     
Belt    Home    44    164    137   19    38   12   0   5   12    25   52    .277    .390    .475    .865
Bichette    Home    51    221    211   20    65   10   0   9   28    10   38    .308    .339    .483    .823
Kirk    Home    41    140    126   14    35    3   0   6   18    11   20    .278    .343    .444    .787
Jansen    Home    35    124    111   16    26    5   0   7   25    9   21    .234    .315    .469    .783
Kiermaier    Home    43    130    113   19    30    7   3   2    9    12   36    .266    .349    .434    .782
Merrifield   Home    54    220    202   29    59    9   0   4   25    14   34    .292    .341    .396    .737
Springer    Home    57    245    218   25    57    8   0   7   24    23   48    .262    .339    .395    .733
Chapman    Home    54    223    193   25    44   16   0   6   21    25   57    .228    .323    .404    .727
Biggio    Home    33     84     71   12    16    2   0   3   12    11   27    .225    .345    .380    .726
Guerrero    Home    57    241    209   24    48   11   0   5   32    27   39    .230    .320    .354    .674
Espinal    Home    34    106     97   15    25    6   0   1   12     8    8    .258    .321    .351    .671
Varsho     Home    56    203    184   19    32    7   0   4   11    15   49    .174    .248    .277    .525

Three hitters in particular - Varsho, Guerrero, Chapman - have been getting killed at home. That's three pretty different kinds of hitters, so there's no obvious conclusion to draw from that. And home field hasn't been doing Bichette and Merrifield any favours. 

It's probably just One of Those Things. And the other side of the coin is what happens to the pitchers. Long story short - Manoah, but only Manoah, has been getting killed at home. The others are either completely indifferent (Berrios, Romano) pitch a little better at home (Swanson, Gausman), pitch quite a bit better at home (Richards, Kikuchi, Mayza, Garcia), or never ever want to pitch anywhere else as long as they live (Pearson, Bassitt.)
uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#434399) #
Well Kikuchi had just tot through the toughest part if the order in the 6th so the "heart" of the order in the 7th wasnt such a big deal.

Why this time didn't annoy me too much was because Kikuchi had given them 6ip already, and the bullpen can handle 3ip no problem. In previous quick hooks Kikuchi was being pulled after 5ip leaving the usually shortstaffed bullpen having to handle 4ip, which is a different kettle of fish.
bpoz - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#434400) #
Thanks Magpie.

Hope our hitting and pitching prospects adjust well to the new dome.
christaylor - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#434402) #
With the 100-level reno next year, I have a hard time imagining that the park will become more hitter-friendly. An obvious thing to do would be to reduce foul territory from its largish Argo-accommodating dimensions. That said, it is not apparent from the cartoon they show during games that smaller foul territory is going to happen.
Ducey - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#434403) #
Foul territory will be reduced in the outfield areas.

Man, Vlad is so bad at home. Time to bring up Horwitz and play him just at home!
hypobole - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#434404) #
Couple of thoughts from last night. Our offence ain't firing on all cylinders, but Wheeler was really good last night. Lucky we came out with the W.

I just rechecked the boxscore and am a bit surprised, though not displeased, Merrifield's second single wasn't changed to an error on Schwarber. Statcast does say the sinking liner had an xBA of .540. Schwarber was positioned perfectly however. He hesitated because it was hit right at him but only had to take a few strides. If that was hit at Varsho, he catches it at least 90% of the time, and probably closer to 100%.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#434406) #
A few strategic starts for Horwitz during home games in September is actually a great idea. Put Belt at first base and Horwitz at DH in those games (against a RHP, naturally). Vladdy gets some rest in advance of the playoffs, and the Jays add a LH bat to the lineup who hits RHP exceptionally well (in the minors, anyway).

It's worth a shot. Maybe try it during the KC series for a game or two and see how it works out.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#434407) #
" When you're as old as me, the "future" is just a hypothetical construct anyway."

So you're not buying any green bananas?

On a different note, I saw an article debating who would be the next person to have their name put on the Jay's level of excellence. One ex-player mentioned was Tom Henke. I'd be down with that.
metafour - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#434408) #
At this point last season, Bo looked more lost at the plate than Vlad does now. He was hitting .259/.300/.427.

Vlad might never be more affordable on a long-term extension than he will be this offseason.

Bo is a middle infielder and should never be compared to Vlad because the positional difference is astronomical. That "slump" that you just referred to for Bo (.727 OPS) likely still placed him near the Top 10 for shortstops; the same can't be said for Vlad. People really aren't grasping the fact that this is a slow, fat, below-average defensive 1B who is hitting for less impact than Whit Merrifield. Vlad has a .172 ISO and is slugging .436 - it is comically bad output for a player who provides nothing else of value. When you talk long-term extension for Vlad, what are you predicting that you are getting? He is starting to look like Eric Hosmer out there, which again, for his position is not even a player that you want locked into your lineup long-term.

"He's young, he has talent" - what is starting to worry me is that he really doesn't seem to give off the vibe that he actually wants to be great. All the elite hitters in this league are serious and work freakishly hard. Vlad looks like a guy who coasted off his natural ability, and his stupid "big kid" demeanor doesn't give me confidence that he has the maturity to get serious now that he has largely been exposed by MLB pitching/scouting. That's all before you even get to his weight which in itself is a testament of his "work ethic", or lack thereof.

Furthermore, how coachable is he really? He's a mess at the plate right now, but do you ever hear anything about tweaks being made. You can actually see visible changes in Varsho's swing which were made to try to offset issues he was having. One thing to remember about Vlad is that he's from a big prominent "baseball family". I believe his uncle has been his hitting coach his entire career. Does he even listen to the Jays' coaching/analytics/development team? I get the impression that the Jays are basically at the behest of whoever the hell is in his ear in the Dominican Republic when it comes to his hitting. Guys like that who are so connected to their family/"inner team" very often never get real critique because the family act as yes-men.

92-93 - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#434410) #
Not sure what a player's position has to do with a comment about it being early enough for a season's hitting line to turn around. Bo's ABs looked just as pathetic as Vlad's do now. Everybody in here is aware of positional value, but thanks for the reminder.

Biggio is rolling, and continues to deserve the ABs that the Box is designating for Horwitz this year and next. Heck, he's even on our banner.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#434411) #
Vladdy's still around a 115wrc+, which is just not a bad hitter. And many good hitters have had worse years than that.

There's actually one very encouraging data point for Vlad in his recent struggles that I'm very, very happy to see - he's finally getting back to the elite BB/K rates he was known for coming up (and had in his one huge MLB season so far).

In his last 30gms, since the Break, in ~130pa he has a 12.2bb% and a 14.5k%. That's something we haven't seen in a while from him. In the first half he was at 7.9bb% and 15.8k%, and last year he put up 8.2% and 16.4%. Neither of those marks are bad, but they are far from elite plate discipline type numbers.

In his one huge year in the bigs, he put up a 12.3% and 15.8%, which is what his recent trend is finally getting back to.

His lack of walks the past couple of years was really taking away from his potential upside at the plate, even if his power stroke came back. But the walks are starting to come again and for me it's a big development.

Now of course he only has a 98wrc+ over that stretch, but that also comes with only a .231babip, for a guy with a career .300babip. Even though that babip is probably deserved - his Exit Velocity, Launch Angle, and Barrel % are all down significantly over this stretch - I still see that as most likely a temporary thing, whereas a return to elite walk rates could be a more serious change in approach that he badly needed to return to.

The biggest thing that stopped him from being an elite hitter imo was him chasing bad pitches. First thing he had to do was stop doing that, and hopefully he's getting back on track there. The rest will come, and should benefit from a better approach.
metafour - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#434412) #
Not sure what a player's position has to do with a comment about it being early enough for a season's hitting line to turn around. Bo's ABs looked just as pathetic as Vlad's do now.
If you are aware about positional value, why would you even make the comparison? I just checked, during that "major slump" for Bichette he was still the 9th best hitting shortstop in baseball with a 106 wRC+. The whole point is that a slumping 1B is in fact doing considerably worse than a similarly slumping SS while posting the same statline. If your point is that Vlad can turn it around like Bo did, sure - that is obvious. But I'd also point out that Bichette is a considerably more consistent "great hitter" than Vlad has been. Take out the one monster season (wherein the team played like 30 games in Dunedin and then a considerable amount of games in Buffalo before only moving back to Toronto in the final quarter of the season) and Vlad's career line is actually very very ordinary - just like it has been this season. He really hasn't proven to be anywhere near Bichette in terms of hitting prowess.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#434413) #
metafour, 92-93's comment had nothing to do with value, simply that despite looking lost at the plate for much of the season, Bo turned it around big time so Vlad might do the same.

That said, my thoughts on Vlad have been somewhat similar to yours, I brought up the Hosmer comp quite some time ago.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#434414) #
I agree that Horwitz shouldn't be anywhere near the first choice to be getting any DH at bats.

Biggio, Schneider, Lukes are all more deserving. And heck maybe even Clement.

AAA

* Schneider: 18.4b%, 21.9k%, .309babip, .278iso, 140wrc+
* Lukes: 9.8b%, 7.5k%, .333babip, .231iso, 142wrc+
* Clement: 9.6b%, 3.6k%, .332babip, .206iso, 141wrc+
* Horwitz: 16.0b%, 15.8k%, .378babip, .157iso, 137wrc+


On another note, that insane low K% from Clement and almost as amazingly low K% for Lukes there has to be a result of the robot umps, no?

Is that an example of what we could see in MLB when umps aren't randomly giving pitchers generous strike calls in key counts?


85bluejay - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#434415) #
If you take away Vlad's one great season aided by playing many games in the Dunedin/Buffalo banbox, he's been quite ordinary for a 1B and when you consider the great expectations ( comparisons to Cabrera/Pujols ) Vlad's production has been abysmal - maybe he will become a great offensive player but likely with another team - many posters wanted the Jays to sign Vlad to a "300m or anything he wants" contract - not looking too hot now. Jays have him for 2plus more years and then it's probably thanks and goodbye.
metafour - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#434417) #
Vladdy's still around a 115wrc+, which is just not a bad hitter. And many good hitters have had worse years than that.

But this is just semantics to try to make light of the reality. 114 wRC+ hitting is not bad...compared to what? Yes, compared to players like Biggio and Jansen it's not bad. But Vlad isn't a backup/rotational middle infielder or a catcher. He's a poor defending, poor baserunning 1B. Which means that his 115 wRC+ is most certainly bad, hence why his fWAR is currently sitting at 0.3.

His 114 wRC+ is currently 14th among qualified 1B, but if you add in qualified DH's he gets jumped by a few more guys. So he's in the bottom tier in just pure offensive output at his position, but he's also one of the worst graded baserunners and the absolute worst graded defender at his position. So once you add those parameters as well, then 114 wRC+ is very bad. If you're going to be a 114 wRC+ 1B, you better be an amazing baserunner and defender - otherwise you're not providing anything really.

And lost in all of this is that Vlad makes $14.5 mill this year. His fWAR value has his worth at $2.6 million this season. We paid 35 year old Brandon Belt (coming off injury) ~$9 million and he is posting a 131 wRC+ season even though he's striking out 35% of the time. Vlad has been really bad.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#434418) #
"114 wRC+ hitting is not bad...compared to what?"

compared to major league hitters.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#434419) #
it is interesting tho that there were many posters here very angry at WAR and WAR pace charts coming into the year that suggested that Vladdy hadn't been one of our best players recently. as usual, WAR doesn't usually get it too wrong.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#434420) #
I think the rest of the FO's in baseball view Vladdy as a buy low candidate currently hitting like an average middle of the pack 1B. If someone sees his ceiling as an Alvarez from HOU then you might be able to get some top prospects for him.

He was always a one dimensional prospect with hitting so good it was supposed to make him as valuable as other top prospects. Prospects like:

Tatis Jr
Acuna Jr
Franco
Rodriguez

He's struggling to keep up with them offensively never mind overall.
Glevin - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#434421) #
"Vladdy's still around a 115wrc+, which is just not a bad hitter. And many good hitters have had worse years than that."

Which elite hitters have had 115 WRC+ without major injuries in the middle of their careers? The 4 most similar to 23 YO Vlad according to BR are Congiliaro (Career ruined because of a HBP), Canseco, Eddie Murray, and Freddie Freeman. Canseco's career got off to a much slower start but once he hit his stride in 1988 with a 169 WRC+ (40/40 year), he didn't have a single healthy year with a WRC+ under 130 until he was 32. (One injury filled year was bad). Murray, from age 22 to age 30 had at least a 130 WRC+. Freeman, since he was 23 (he's now 33 and an MVP candidate) has not had a WRC+ under 130.

The only guys I can think of who looked elite and then seemed to collapse for no reason are Bellinger and Yelich and Yelich had a severe injury so he probably doesn't count. Either way, it's extremely rare and very concerning for an elite hitter to just become mediocre. I agree his issue is pitch selection which is just awful. He has as much offensive talent as anyone in baseball but right now, he just looks lost.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#434422) #
Is that an example of what we could see in MLB when umps aren't randomly giving pitchers generous strike calls in key counts?

Maybe. Strikeouts in the IL are only down from 9.2/9 to 9.1/9. It's BB's that have risen from 4.0/9 to 4.8/9.

Buffalo is an odd team. It may just be the players but I think it might be attributable in part to the coaching there. They have the fewest K's and the most BB's in the IL.

High and low get more strike calls than I see here, it's inside and especially outside that aren't expanded, and a lot of MLB umps expend there. Don't think we'll see pure robo-umping any time soon though. It's the challenge system they use on weekends that will be brought in first.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#434423) #
Also, I still have to say that writing off a 24yr old with a career 130wrc+ in 621 games, just because he's in his first sub-132wrc+ season since age 21, is a bit hasty.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#434424) #
Metafour,

Don't agree on your criticisms of Vlad's weight or conditioning. If he weighed less he'd still be facing similar problems. Also contest your coachability claims especially compared to Bo. We know Bo does his own hitting strategies and approaches. For all we know Vlad may be hurting from following the teams instructors.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#434426) #
"Which elite hitters have had 115 WRC+ without major injuries in the middle of their careers?"

* Altuve (30): 74wrc+
* Martinez (32): 76wrc+
* Bogaaerts (24): 95wrc+
* Rendon (25): 97wrc+
* Machado (24): 102wrc+
* Olson (26): 104wrc+
* Seager (24): 106wrc+
* Betts (24): 107wrc+
* Ramirez (26): 108wrc+
* rendon (26): 110wrc+
* Bogaerts (30): 110wrc+
* Harper (23): 111wrc+
* Seager (25): 112wrc+
* Acuna (24): 114wrc+
* Bregman (27): 114wrc+
* Tatis (24): 117wrc+
* Yelich (25): 117wrc+
* Goldschmit (31): 117wrc+
* Springer (28): 119wrc+
Nigel - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#434427) #
I'm with 92-93 - I'm not really sure why Biggio wouldn't take the notional "Horwitz ABs" going forward. Biggio has a 123 wRC+ since May 1 (160 PA's) and a 98 wRC+ in over 500 PA's over the past 2 years. His usage continues to confuse me. He obviously needs some sheltering (some elite velocity RH's and most LH's) but should be in the lineup most games against RHs.
Gerry - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#434428) #
Bo singles to right field...He's back!!

This is in Buffalo BTW.
metafour - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 01:56 PM EDT (#434429) #
compared to major league hitters.
What value do you get in comparing him to ALL major league hitters, when he in fact plays the most demanding offensive position on the field? No offense, but this is an obvious exercise in trying to make yourself feel better about how bad he actually has been. Why not compare him to his actual contemporaries?

Okay, so he's a first baseman who is hitting at the level of 35 year old slap-hitter Whit Merrifield while providing the worst defense and some of the worst base-running at his position. A position that features absolute mashers for the most part. He is paid $14.5 mill to do this. Again, this is a very bad season. C'mon man, let's not rope in defensive-specialist middle infielders, center fielders, and catchers who bring the league-average wRC+ down BUT provide massive defensive value elsewhere and then pretend like Vlad hitting like Merrifield is actually pretty OK lol.

Magpie - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#434430) #
Well, everyone hits as a hitter, one of nine. Bichette was a more valuable player in 2022. Guerrero was still the better hitter.

But enough about him. Can anyone explain how Daulton Varsho is duplicating his 2022 performance - so closely that it's downright spooky - in his road games this season? While hitting like you or me at home?
Paul D - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#434431) #
It's strange to me just how bad Vlad's been defensively. There was a moment when it seemed like he'd turned a corner defensively.
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#434432) #
Vlad's wrc+ - 106-110-166-132-114, so I can say that Vlad has had only 1 season of wrc+ greater than 132 - Statistics, you can use and abuse any way you want.
metafour - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#434433) #
Well, everyone hits as a hitter, one of nine. Bichette was a more valuable player in 2022. Guerrero was still the better hitter.
9 times out of 10 the first baseman on a team is a better hitter than the shortstop. That's kind the point. Very few players can play shortstop. Almost anyone can do what Vlad does at first base - which actually isn't even much considering that he's the worst defender in the league at the position. Overall hitting output is heavily dependant on power hitting output, which is skewed towards bigger/stronger human beings. You can't be 260 pounds and play shortstop.

Hence the barometer for hitting output at the first base position is very very high. Such that 114 wRC+ is literally replacement-level hitting. To suggest otherwise is asinine.

Magpie - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#434434) #
There was a moment when it seemed like he'd turned a corner defensively.

Is it possible that working with Don Mattingly has not been all it was supposed to be?
Paul D - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#434435) #
Guerrero's offence puts him just about squarely in the middle of 1b.

I find these debates a bit frustrating, as it seems as though everyone is talking past each other. Is anyone here claiming that Vlad is an elite hitter? At best, some say he's been disappointing, but still has potential. What are we disagreeing about?

No matter how he does, I don't see him getting traded, as the front office will see his exit velocity, remember his prospect status, and be terrified that if they trade him someone else will be able to unlock him.
Paul D - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#434436) #
Wow, his -13 Outs Above Average this year is the worst for a 1b that Statcast has in its database (goes back to 2016, and includes 257 people). And of course, he's likely to go down in the last 6 weeks.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/outs_above_average?type=Fielder&startYear=2016&endYear=2023&split=yes&team=&range=year&min=q&pos=3&roles=&viz=hide
metafour - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 02:25 PM EDT (#434437) #
Vlad's wrc+ - 106-110-166-132-114, so I can say that Vlad has had only 1 season of wrc+ greater than 132 - Statistics, you can use and abuse any way you want.
Exactly. And this is the worrying part. He actually has 3 completely replaceable (or worse) seasons of hitting (106, 110, 114 wRC+), one season wherein he was above average (132 wRC+), and one season wherein he was elite (166 wRC+).

The "elite" season came in a completely abnormal situation. The team played ~3/4ths of its home games in minor league stadiums. That's not a useless data point, and the fact that he hasn't come anywhere close to replicating that in two seasons since makes it look more and more like a red-flag of something that might just be an outlier. That one 166 wRC+ season is propping his career numbers up significantly.

Has anyone "written him off"? I'm not sure, but the trend is very very very worrying. To claim otherwise is crazy to me. He is hitting for almost no power, routinely looks lost at the plate, and appears to have lost or considerably regressed in his supposed elite tools. The bat to ball skills are still there,m but it's kind of funny because pitchers actually seem to be using this against him by making him chase bad pitches. So whereas a less "talented" might just swing and miss at that low and outside slider, he is able to adjust and make contact...which produces a groundball double-play LOL.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#434438) #
"What value do you get in comparing him to ALL major league hitters"

a hitter is a hitter. he's still a good hitter, even in the midst of a terrible year.



hypobole - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#434439) #
Here's something i noticed. Most good hitters ambush fastballs. Vlad vs 4 seamers per statcast.
Weighted Value and rank

2021 - +32.5 #1 of 132
2022 - +8.8 #28 of 130
2023 - -1.3 #108 of 140
uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#434440) #
And never forget age.

Seasons until age 24:

* Guerrero: 106 / 110 / 166 / 132 / 114*
* Delgado: --- / 115 / 101 / 26 / 111



85bluejay - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#434441) #
Again, how selective use of statistics can skew reality - after peaking in his age 22 season , Vlad has been on a concerning decline while after starting poorly including a demotion Delgado was on an upswing in his age 24 season and continued that upward trajection.Posters are not writing off Vladdy but just pointing out the obvious - since his 2021 season he's been on a concerning decline - I'm sure every Blue Jays fan is hoping he turns it around and becomes an offensive monster but we shouldn't bury our heads in the sand.
Magpie - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#434442) #
In his "elite" season, Guerrero hit .291/.378/.497 on the road. And this year he's hitting .294/.356/.506 on the road.

So the mystery to me is why he's struggling so badly (.230/.320/.354) at the RC. Is he pressing, trying to do too much in front of the home crowd, because he thinks that's what's expected of him? Then why is he hitting better in High Leverage (.313/.392/.438), when it's Late and Close (.316/.368/.513), when there are Runners in Scoring Position (.304/.368/.426)? Is he simply not seeing the baseball as well at the RC as he does elsewhere? Or is it just one of those random things that happens, that no one will ever be able to explain?
Magpie - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#434443) #
And of course the gap between Varsho's home-road performance is even bigger than Guerrero's! But no one wants to talk about that!
92-93 - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#434444) #
No Chapman and Jansen again today, so they will both have had nice breaks when Friday rolls around. Friday's lineup could have four new faces in it (+ Kiermaier and Bichette).
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#434445) #
" first time the Yankees have been .500 this late in a season since 1995. "
Magpie - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#434446) #
This is a very nice piece on Jim Eisenreich, who I've managed to forgive for that homer I saw him hit thirty years ago.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#434447) #
The Blue Jay pitchers per Statcast.  The top 8 pitchers are relievers (Swanson, Richards, Jackson, Mayza,Hicks, Romano, Pearson, Garcia), then Gausman, then Bowden Francis and Genesis Cabrera, and then Kikuchi and Ryu.  Everyone up to Bowden Francis is noticeably above average; Kikuchi and Ryu are in the average range.  Bassit and Berrios are a little below average and Manoah a lot below average. It's a bit strange to praise the starters and criticize the bullpen.  
uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#434448) #
Interesting point Magpie:

Away wRC+

* 2019: 129
* 2020: 99
* 2021: 143
* 2022: 126
* 2023: 138

Home wRC+

* 2019: 81
* 2020: 121
* 2021: 189
* 2022: 138
* 2023: 87


The Away production has been very consistent other than the one blip in year 2, and this year is as good as it's ever been in his career.

The Home production has been all over the place. I think we all agree that there was plenty in the 189 in 2021 to be skeptical of, but at the same time I think we'd all agree that the 87 he's putting up at home this year is also pretty bizarre.
Ducey - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#434449) #
"So the mystery to me is why he's struggling so badly (.230/.320/.354) at the RC. Is he pressing, trying to do too much in front of the home crowd, because he thinks that's what's expected of him? Then why is he hitting better in High Leverage (.313/.392/.438), when it's Late and Close (.316/.368/.513), when there are Runners in Scoring Position (.304/.368/.426)? Is he simply not seeing the baseball as well at the RC as he does elsewhere? Or is it just one of those random things that happens, that no one will ever be able to explain?"

I will go with pressing too hard at home. Its evident from observation that he is swinging too hard. In tighter situations he may be cutting his swing down to drive in a runner.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#434450) #
The Blue Jay pitchers per Statcast.

This goes back to the "what do statistics tell you?" discussion. This table, if I read it right (using xERA or xwOBA) says that:

-Berrios and White have basically been the same pitcher this year. Despite White having more than TWICE the ERA of Berrios. I know which pitcher I want starting any given game, especially in the playoffs.

-Mayza, Hicks and Romano have basically all been the same pitcher this year. Despite Mayza having a 1.08 ERA, Romano at 2.72 and Hicks owning an ERA of 3.72 - close to 4x that of Mayza (closer than 3x when rounding). And Jay Jackson has been better than ALL three of them.

-This table seems to have been tailor-made (or calibrated) for Trevor Richards (our 2nd best pitcher) - his ERA and xERA are only 0.01 apart.. 

Not sure if this takes into account quality of hitters faced? It sure seems like it doesn't..
uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#434451) #
Nice I see that Green pitched for buffalo today. I was worried the concussion was going to keep him out.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#434456) #
And of course the gap between Varsho's home-road performance is even bigger than Guerrero's! But no one wants to talk about that!

Talking about that....
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#434457) #
Daulton Varsho and Cavan Biggio deliver.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#434458) #
I’ve been banging this drum for 6 weeks now so I’m in danger of being a one one pony. But Biggio needs to have regular ABs. DeJong and Espinal sit when Chapman and Bo come back. But Biggio probably goes to rot when KK comes back. That would be a mistake.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#434459) #
I’m fine with Biggio being a part time player but yes it would make sense to pencil him into the lineup a bit more when everyone is healthy.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#434460) #
Oh I’m not saying he should be an everyday player. Against many LH pitchers and premium velocity RHs he should sit. Against everyone else he should play. I’d guess it’s about a 60-65% role.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#434461) #
If it were me, I’d just be releasing DeJong when the walking wounded return. Thankfully the acquisition cost was negligible.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#434462) #
This is just great baseball.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#434463) #
A throwing error by Espinal, but one that could have reasonably be saved by VGJ. A fairly routine one bouncer that hebjusy didn't catch.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#434464) #
DeJong should be released but I suspect Davis Schneider will be demoted and they will carry both Espinal and DeJong when everyone is back. That wouldn’t be the right move but the fact that they’d rather play Espinal at 3B than get Schneider’s bat into the struggling lineup is telling. The Jays want replacement level guys on the bench.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#434465) #
My wife just notified me that Edwin Encarnacion is now a special advisor in the blue jays dugout? Is this accurate? Has he been brought in to teach Vladdy how to hit? She says Hazel Mae posted it?
uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#434466) #
I liked tired Gausman better.
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:03 PM EDT (#434467) #
The throwing error really changed the momentum of the game. We’re so used to good run prevention by the Jays that tonight’s error was jarring.

You could also argue that the two walks that preceded the double and error were what changed the momentum of the game.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#434468) #
I’m a big Schneider fan but I really don’t think Schneider can play 3B. Frankly I don’t think you want him at 2B if you can help it. Unfortunately.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#434469) #
Schneider doesn't have the arm for 3rd. As for 2nd, I'm not saying he should play there, but I haven't seen one thing, either here or in Buffalo that says he shouldn't.
Marc Hulet - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#434471) #
DeJong should not have been hitting in the seventh for a team desperate for offence...
Gerry - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#434472) #
Edwin was in the dugout on Sunday, after the Bautista ceremony the previous day. The Jays had to get MLB permission for that. I haven't seen him yesterday or today but not scanning the dugout too carefully.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#434473) #
I think the clock struck midnight for Jackson.

Welcome back soon, Chad Green.
hypobole - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#434474) #
I liked tired Gausman better.

This is hithe 4th time he's given up at least 6 runs this year. The 1st 3 were all on regular rest.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#434475) #
Schneider didn't have to play 3B. I get wanting to have the best defensive team out there, but when that means you have to play both a 70 wRC+ bat like Espinal and a -0.8 WAR/-74 wRC+ (and dropping...in a dozen games) player like DeJong in a lineup that is already struggling to score runs, it's simply not a good idea. Play Biggio at 3B for a night. He's not good there but you're not asking him to play there every night. I'm sure Merrifield could cover 3B in a pinch as well.

Stuff like this and refusing to let Bowden Francis start in place of Manoah is not making me optimistic about the Jays incorporating younger players into the lineup in 2024 and 2025. Preferring veterans even a sub replacement level performance over young players is a sign of desperation.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#434476) #
Bowden Francis is 27.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#434477) #
Thats some pure trash umping right there.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#434478) #
"Bowden Francis is 27."

He still should have started in place of Manoah a few months ago. He was the best available option. I'm not saying he would have been good, maybe he wouldn't have been, but the fact that they were so terrified to even try it, and preferred risking punting games with Manoah clearly not right is very telling. They probably won't act that way with guys like Tiedemann and Orelvis who have much higher upside, but sometimes those no name prospects become useful too.
Kasi - Wednesday, August 16 2023 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#434481) #
I think Kikuchi is our best starter now. I like Gausman but it’s hard to trust a pitcher who only runs two pitches. Sure when he’s on his fastball and splitter are hard to tell apart and he’s unhittable but if it’s not working then he gets crushed. Kikuchi if something is not working has other pitches to fall back on. Basically if I needs to throw a gem I’d run out Kevin but if I want a good six innings and to stay in the game with a chance to win I want Kikuchi. Can say the same with comparison Bassett to Berrios.
Michael - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 02:17 AM EDT (#434482) #
The point about Francis's age is that he's 2 years older than Manoah. So if they were playing Manoah over him it isn't because they are afraid of playing younger players - they were playing the younger player.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 07:34 AM EDT (#434483) #
The charity auction raised a lot of cash for the Jays-Care Foundation.

Gone fishing with Buck Martinez.
85bluejay - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 07:53 AM EDT (#434484) #
I think perhaps the poster meant to suggest that the Jays are reluctant to play inexperienced players (Francis) and stick with experienced players(Manoah) when the situation may suggest otherwise - it's not so much actual age as ML experience.
uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 10:13 AM EDT (#434486) #
Not sure there was any reason to ever want Francis to start for the Jays, tho. Sure he had a nice AAA ERA over 7 starts this year but that was the product of an incredible 97.6% strand rate.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#434487) #
There were two very good reasons to start Francis over Manoah. Francis was, at that point, obviously a better pitcher. And it was better for Manoah's long-term development to properly work out his issues in the minor leagues.

If the org felt that Francis was likely to fail at the major league level, it ought to have acquired another pitcher.

It was an organization failure. If you can't deal well with one of your five starting pitchers being unavailable due to injury/ineffectiveness, you probably should be in another role.
uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#434489) #
I don't think there's ever really been any reason to believe Bowden Francis is capable of being an MLB starter, and his miraculous LOB% this year in minimal innings (both in AAA or MLB) is the only reason people think he is.

Technically he was "starting" in AAA this year, but he averaged only 3.5ip per start. Only once did he throw more than 4ip or make it twice through the order in AAA this year, and he gave up 7 hits and 3 runs in that 4.2ip start.

Could he have been better than Manoah? maybe. So could a lot of pitchers. But I think not pulling the chute on your 25yr old ace after half a season shows the opposite of what's being implied here about the FO's decision here.



Mike Green - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#434490) #
Manoah was manifestly not himself in a number of ways. If you are aiming to compete for a WS championship this year under the current rules, you want to try to win the division and earn a bye. That meant either using him in a low leverage long relief bullpen role or sending him down for a serious rework. This ought to have happened earlier and lasted as look as it took.

FWIW, I think that Francis would have had an ERA of about 4.5 and given you 5 innings per start. Not great, but a perfectly acceptable bridge to Ryu.
uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#434491) #
On another note, Paul Dejong is in contention for the worst Blue Jays player of all time.

In 44pa so far, he has a -77wrc+ and a -0.9war.

The only comparable I can find nearly that bad in minimum 20pa is Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who in 26pa put up a -79 and -0.6.

The only Blue Jay to put up a negative wRC+ in over 40pa is Joe Cannon who put up a still awful but much better -2wrc+ in 197pa.

greenfrog - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#434497) #
Incorrect. Joe Lawrence in 2002 posted a -0.9 WAR in 174 PA. That was a similarly horrible stretch of playing time from a Jays middle infielder.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#434498) #
Correction - Lawrence had a positive (albeit terrible) wRC+ of 34 in his stint with the Jays.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#434499) #
Let us not forget the immortal Socrates Brito, who managed a -22 wrc+ in 43pa in 2019.

There is also Brian Lesher (I did not even recognize the name) who put up a -5 wrc+, also in 43pa in 2002.
uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 12:49 PM EDT (#434503) #
even dissecting Lawrence's worst stretch that year the best I can come up with is a 31pa stretch with a -55wrc+.
85bluejay - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#434506) #
For me, it wasn't so much about Francis but the absolute rush to recall Manoah - As Mike Green mentioned, Manoah should have been left to work out his problems in the minors especilly with Ryu almost ready.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#434507) #
DeJong has earned it- 18 strikeouts and no walks in 44 PAs, 50% of batted balls on the ground with an overall average EV of 81.8.  About half his batted balls are up the middle.  With that kind of profile, no home runs is entirely to be expected.  If he had a little bit of luck, he might have  a double and another single (he has 3 singles to show for his work). 
hypobole - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#434509) #
Starting to think Jays may not pick up DeJong's $12.5 Million option. :)
uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#434510) #
I didn't like the rush to recall Manoah, but at the same time he put up this in his four starts after his return:

4gs, 4.7ip/gs, 103era-, 113fip-

not great but pretty good for an emergency fill-in guy, and likely better than what any other arm in the system would have done.

Now when they kept him up in August just to have a 6 man rotation, when he was no longer needed as an emergency fill-in, that's what i had a bigger problem with. Didn't help that in those 2 starts he put up a 140era- and 122fip-.
uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#434511) #
Dejong's saving grace is that Espinal has also been terrible over the last month or so, and Dejong still likely has a good defensive edge on him.

Also, Espinal has options I think, so dejong is likely on the playoffs roster no matter what.

But now that I'm looking at it - just how good is Leo Jimenez' defense anyways? I bet he could hit as well as these two right now.
92-93 - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#434516) #
Espinal has looked much better recently, both at the plate and in the field, even if the results aren't there. That throwing error yesterday wasn't even that bad.

It's easy to cut DeJong in a message forum, and harder when you just picked up a 2.5MM tab. It's hard to see from his recent play why the Jays didn't just roll with Espinal.

And obviously Biggio should be playing every day vs. RHP, something a few of us have been saying for awhile. His numbers jump around a lot because of a lack of playing time, but at one point last night he had a higher OPS than Springer.
uglyone - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 02:46 PM EDT (#434519) #
This year

vRHP

* 1. DH Belt 306pa, 135wrc+
* 2. SS Bichette 385pa, 123wrc+
* 3. 2B Merrifield 353pa, 115wrc+
* 4. C Jansen 191pa, 112wrc+
* 5. 1B Guerrero 426pa, 111wrc+
* 6. 3B Chapman 389pa, 110wrc+
* 7. CF Kiermaier 227pa, 109wrc+
* 8. LF Biggio 183pa, 108wrc+
* 9. RF Springer 405pa, 97wrc+

* 10. Kirk 215pa, 89wrc+
* 11. Varsho 364pa, 73wrc+
* 12. Espinal 112pa 68wrc+
* 13. Dejong 261pa, 65wrc+


vLHP

* 1. SS Bichette 86pa, 185wrc+
* 2. 3B Chapman 96pa, 167wrc+
* 3. 1B Guerrero 89pa, 134wrc+
* 4. DH Merrifield 107pa, 116wrc+
* 5. RF Springer 108pa, 109wrc+
* 6. CF Kiermaier 72pa, 106wrc+
* 7. LF Varsho 83pa, 101wrc+
* 8. 2B Dejong 89pa, 99wrc+
* 9. C Kirk 94pa, 98wrc+

* 10. Jansen 77pa, 85wrc+
* 11. Belt 32pa, 69wrc+
* 12. Espinal 80pa, 65wrc+
* 13. Biggio 27pa, 40wrc+


Of course I would still trust Belt over Dejong vLHP, so Belt would stay as DH and Merrifield play 2B.

Biggio definitely seems deserving of getting a look as the starting LF vRHP tho.
SK in NJ - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#434525) #
"I think perhaps the poster meant to suggest that the Jays are reluctant to play inexperienced players (Francis) and stick with experienced players(Manoah) when the situation may suggest otherwise - it's not so much actual age as ML experience."


Yes that is what I meant. I wasn't even considering actual age as it was irrelevant to the point. Francis was the best option they had in AAA to cover some starts in place of Manoah. If you want to say that the fact that he was the best they had in AAA is an indictment on the front office, then that's fair, but you can only use what you have available. This FO has been lousy at developing SP, but that doesn't mean you keep going to a SP who is clearly not right and potentially destroy his confidence even further. In an ideal world, Tiedemann would have been available to take Manoah's place mid-season, but he wasn't, so you use what you have at your disposal.
Magpie - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 04:25 PM EDT (#434529) #
Now when they kept him up in August just to have a 6 man rotation, when he was no longer needed as an emergency fill-in, that's what i had a bigger problem with.

I think they were just hedging their bets with Ryu, in case it turned out he wasn't ready to get major league hitters out.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#434534) #
Riley Adams has a .934 OPS in 31 games for the Washington Nationals.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#434536) #
Cincinnati tomorrow. Finally, an up-close look at Elly De La Cruz.

Go Washington! Rally time against Boston in the 5th. Adams hits a 2-run single. Red Sox 1 - Nationals 6.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#434540) #
I'd always look at career splits to judge how platoons should be handled. It takes a tonne of plate appearances before handedness splits are worthwhile.

I do think Biggio is miscast as a utility guy. He's been about average defensively at 2B, well below average in the outfield. It's nice to have him to fill in if necessary in the OF (and 3B & 1B) but I think 90%+ of his playing time should come at 2B.

The defensive and positional cost he's taken from playing other than 2B is about 1.5 WAR over his career. Take that out, and he's been about a 3WAR/650 player, and he'd be worth close to 1 WAR this season.

So yes, use Biggio as the strong side of a 2B platoon, and let Whit get more playing time in the OF, where he's significantly better defensively than Biggio.
Gerry - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#434541) #
Home run Bo Bichette, first AB tonight.
John Northey - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 08:28 PM EDT (#434542) #
Agreed on Biggio - he had a HORRID start to 2023: 111/184/244 in April March, but since has hit 264/360/436 which is very good indeed, roughly a 120 OPS+. Imagine what roboumps would do for him given he has a better eye than most umps.

For 2024 Biggio getting regular time at 2B is A-OK by me. The stats at FanGraphs suggest he is pretty much just a tiny bit below average at all positions (1B/2B/3B/OF) but not horrid by any stretch which doesn't pass the eye test when he was at 3B. Still, he is highly valuable. Put him in vs all RHP at 2B, avoid letting him play vs LHP (40 wRC+ this year, 21-23 wRC+ vs LHP is 51-62-40 vs his first two years at 105-157, I get the feeling COVID was a fluke year for him vs LHP). If Merrifield isn't back or is left in LF then let Schneider platoon with Espinal as a pure backup.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#434544) #
The M's beat KC today and are within 0.5 games of the Jays.

Seattle still has around 18 "easy" games left (against the White Sox, KC, Oakland, Mets, and Angels). They have about 23 "tough" games left (against Houston, Cincinnati, TB, LAD, Texas).

Toronto has about 12 "easy" games (against Washington, Colorado, Oakland, KC, Cleveland) -- assuming the Guardians fall into this category. The Jays have around 25 "tough" games (against Cincinnati, Baltimore, Texas, Boston, NYY, TB).

Advantage: Seattle
Petey Baseball - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#434545) #
I remember Joe Lawrence well, and a little bit of Brian Lesher. Both were in '02, Ricciardi's first year. I seem to remember J.P. saying "I think Joe Lawrence is really gonna blossom." I distinctly remember that exact sentence.

Wasn't much to cheer for that year except it was the year Halladay turned into an ace and didn't look back for a decade. Didn't Josh Phelps get a mid-season callup and rake for a few months?
92-93 - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#434547) #
The Jays have an easier strength of schedule remaining than the Mariners who own the tiebreaker.

Hopefully the Yankees throw in the towel before the final 6 games and get Judge off his feet early.
greenfrog - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#434548) #
There are teams the Jays should beat, like the Yankees (6 games pending). The algorithms probably like that matchup for Toronto. We'll see how it plays out. The Jays have done a good job this year of losing a bunch of games they should have won (due largely to hitting with RISP issues).
greenfrog - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#434550) #
The good thing is that Houston and Texas are in a tight race for the AL West division title. Hopefully that race goes down to the wire and they both play Seattle tough, including in the last seven games of the season.
soupman - Thursday, August 17 2023 @ 10:52 PM EDT (#434551) #
Cincy aren’t a tough team. The went nuclear hot when Elly arrived but they’ve been pretty bad before and since he cooled down.
Petey Baseball - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#434553) #
What is the consensus of when Richards and Green will be added to the bullpen?
Magpie - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#434555) #
I expect Richards, Kiermaier, Bichette to all be activated today. Goodbye for now to Francis, Lukes, Schneider. Green next week?
92-93 - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#434556) #
My guess is that it's Jackson over Francis, for two reasons:

1. The bullpen should have a long man, and using Richards as such limits you elsewhere.

2. If they send Francis down, they will be reluctant to bring him back to the majors because they won't be able to option him down again without exposing him to waivers (5x rule).

With respect to Green, he's still missing some heat on his fastball. Might as well build him up a bit more while the bullpen is well rested.

The algos don’t make arbitrary distinctions between the Yankees and Angels, who are separated by half a game in the standings with similar Pythag records. Also, the Jays have more home games.
Petey Baseball - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#434558) #
Wow they are really being careful with Green. It would be nice to see him with the big club soon.
uglyone - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#434563) #
Green got hit in the head by a throw from the catcher on a steal attempt on August 8th. They kept him out for a week and his first game back was on wednesday the 16th (1.1ip, 3k).

Video: https://www.milb.com/buffalo/video/chad-green-strikes-out-the-side

They still haven't given him the back-to-back days usage they originally wanted to before calling him up, but I imagine that should be coming up very soon (like right now this weekend). I'd expect him up next week unless something goes wrong.
hypobole - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#434564) #
Mentioned yesterday the Angels aggressiveness with promotions. Their 1st rounder this year was the 1st to AA. Well, he's also 1st to the majors. Angels just called him up.
scottt - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 11:18 AM EDT (#434565) #
Kiermaier is not an everyday  guy. Not even the strong side of a platoon.
He comes in late as a defensive replacement against LHP.
The best option there is probably Espinal at 2B and Schneider as the DH.

uglyone - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#434569) #

* CL Romano
* RSU Swanson
* LSU Mayza
* RMR Hicks
* LMR Cabrera
* RMR Garcia
* RLR Richards

The only real question in the bullpen is whether Green can come back and supplant Swanson as the RH setup guy. That would be ideal. Swanson is a decent high leverage guy but not a great one. Green was a great one for a long time.

After that i guess there could still be a debate as to whether a Jackson or Manoah could knock out one of the bottom guys there. I doubt Jackson would ever beat them out with his lack of stuff tho. Manoah could do it but would have to really dial it in to make it back.
Gerry - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 11:35 AM EDT (#434570) #

I liked this article by Mike Petriello. Its a dep dive into Vlad's numbers.

Gerry - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#434571) #
Here is an excerpt that caught my eye

When he barrels the ball up – a barrel being the perfect combination of exit velocity and launch angle, which in the Majors in 2023 leads to a .737 average and 2.467 slugging, i.e. “really incredible production" – he’s hitting those crushed baseballs an average of 365 feet. It’s well below the MLB average of 385 feet; it’s the second-shortest of hundreds of players who have at least 10 such batted balls; it’s by far the shortest of his career.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#434574) #
Buck Martinez was commenting during the last game that Vlad seemed to be on his front side before the pitch and not loading up on his back leg. That would rob him of power although he is still hitting the ball hard. Also I've read that his chase rate of balls outside the strike zone was much lower in his big season a few years ago.

At this point I think he has a lot of people in his ear and may be overthinking things when he gets to the plate.
uglyone - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#434575) #
Just wanted to remind myself how good Green is. And that he's only 32yrs old.

As RP only:

* Career: 248gms, 1.3ip/gm, 64era-, 67fip-, 77xfip-, 7.6war, 2.0war/65gms
* Last2yr: 81gms, 1.2ip/gm, 73era-, 81fip-, 88xfip-, 2.0war, 1.6war/65gms

If he can match what he was doing the past couple years that makes him the 2nd best reliever on staff.
92-93 - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#434581) #
We'll see if he can get his fastball velocity back. Yankees fans were concerned about its drop, and he maxed out at 94.9 in his last rehab start. A few years ago he would hit 98 with regularity.
uglyone - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#434585) #
94.9 on wednesday?
92-93 - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#434587) #
Yep. Averaged 94.5.
hypobole - Friday, August 18 2023 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#434588) #
Wednesday Green hit 95.3 once, the rest between 94-95 his 1st inning pitched. The 2nd inning, mostly 93-94, 94.6 his final pitch.
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