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A team from the Other League makes one of their uncommon visits to our town.


I have no memory whatsoever of any previous encounters between the Cubs and the Blue Jays. I have plenty of memories, not all of them pleasant, of games against the Yankees and the Red Sox, against the Tigers and the Orioles, against the Royals and the Rays. But these National League outfits don't mean much to me.

Well, the Blue Jays have only played 18 games against the Cubs, ever. (The Cubs and the Padres are the two teams the Jays have played the fewest games against.) The Cubs were here just last August - the Jays took two of the three from the Cubs, losing only the game started by Mitch White. The Jays are 10-8 against the Cubs all-time but they're 8-4 in the games played in Toronto.

The Cubs have been playing at Wrigley Field for more than a hundred years but the Blue Jays have only been there twice. Once was back in 2005, and the most recent occasion was in 2017, when the Cubs were the defending champions. The Cubs would go on to win 92 games and the NL Central in 2017, and they swept all three games on that occasion. I seem to have blocked the finale from my memory, so let me traumatize you with the grisly details. In the moment, Eephus said it would forever be known as the Raffy Lopez game. Roberto Osuna, on in the tenth with a two run lead, struck out Schwarber leading off. Alas, he reached base anyway on the wild pitch that Lopez couldn't handle. Zobrist singled him to third and he scored on another wild pitch. Osuna got Rizzo to ground out and struck out Baez - but Baez reached base on the third wild pitch of the inning. Osuna then hit Heyward with a pitch and Avila's two run single ended the game. Yeah, I'm glad I've forgotten that one.

Ten days before the deadline, the Cubs were presumed to be one of the teams that would be selling off assets at the deadline. After all, Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger are both free agents at the end of the season. Stroman had actually been pitching pretty badly for the last month before going on the IL, but he's a proven commodity and Bellinger is having a monster year and seems to have recovered all the ability that went so mysterously missing his last few years in Los Angeles. On July 20, the Cubs had a record of 45-51, and were 8.5 games off the division lead. But they ran off eight straight wins, part of a 13-3 run that has put them right back in the thick of things in the NL Central. And Bellinger and Stroman are still with the team.

We'll see ace southpaw Justin Steele on Saturday. A reminder that it's baseball and nobody knows anything. Steele, who turned 28 just a few weeks ago, had a career record of 8-11 in 33 starts over two seasons coming into this year. But here he is,  second in the league in ERA, tied for the league lead in Wins, stuff which would probably put him in the Cy Young discussion. I think his workload might be catching up to him a little bit. In his last 9 starts, he's... well, he's gone 7-1, 2.72. Very, very little, I suppose. But hey, he's allowed 7 HR in those seven starts. He had a stretch of nine consecutive starts earlier this season when he allowed zero homers. Not a one.

The Blue Jays have, at last, signed a RH outfielder... oh, wait. It's Jose Bautista, who probably doesn't  fit into any plans beyond this weekend. That's okay. I will always, always be happy to see Jose. Good times!

Matchups!

Fri 11 August - Assad (1-2, 3.35) vs Berrios (9-7, 3.38)
Sat 12 August - Steele 13-3, 2.68) vs Bassitt (11-6, 3.87)
Sun 13 August - Taillon (7-6, 517) vs Ryu (0-1, 4.00)

Chicago Cubs at Toronto, August 11-13 | 188 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
92-93 - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 02:01 PM EDT (#434067) #
The Cubs are 2.5gb of the Brewers but actually have a better chance of making the playoffs because of strength of schedule. They are 16-6 in their last 22 and this series will not be easy.

It would have been nice to see Stroman pitch this weekend at the Dome.
John Northey - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#434068) #
Manoah back to AAA Hagen Danner up. Sigh. Poor Manoah, from ace to the minors twice.
uglyone - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#434069) #
Manoah sent down. The end of the silly 6 man rotation couldn't come soon enough.
electric carrot - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#434070) #
Nice to hear that Joey Bats retired a Blue Jay. He was a joy to behold when he played with the Jays. This post made me imagine a-pushing-30-year-old José on this incarnation of the Jays. Whoo!
uglyone - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#434071) #
Potential batting order based on this year's stats only:

* 1. SS Bichette 471pa, .352obp, 135wrc+
* 2. DH Belt 319pa, .367obp, 128wrc+
* 3. 3B Chapman 477pa, .348obp, 123wrc+
* 4. 1B Guerrero 494pa, .342obp, 118wrc+
* 5. 2B Merrifield 437pa, .347obp, 114wrc+
* 6. RF Springer 492pa, .328obp, 104wrc+
* 7. CF Kiermaier 299pa, .336obp, 109wrc+
* 8. C Jansen 263pa, .289obp, 103wrc+
* 9. LF Varsho 429pa, .276obp, 75wrc+


With of course arguments for all of Biggio Dejong Espinal Schneider playing ahead of Varsho, with Whit flip-flopping position as needed.

That order would surprisingly hold up well vs both Rhp and Lbp, with the exception being that we probabky wouldn't want Belt in the 2 hole vLHP.

dalimon5 - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#434072) #
I've been wondering lately what would happen if Vlad batted lead off. It worked out very well when Gibbons tried it with Bautista.
Magpie - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#434073) #
It worked out very well when Gibbons tried it with Bautista.

This would be 2016, and we can cut to the chase and say it did work well enough - the team went 25-15 in the 40 games Bautista was leading off. Gibbons spent the first six weeks trying to decide whether Pillar or Saunders should lead off, and eventually decided neither one of them should. Bautista hadn't led off since the beginning of the 2010 season - it didn't work out at that time, but he worked his way up the order, was batting third by the end of the year and had hit third ever since.

It didn't stick in 2016, largely because Bautista made two trips to the DL. Zeke Carrera and Devon Travis led off in his absence, and in September Gibbons moved Jose to cleanup.
scottt - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#434075) #
The 6 man rotation worked well.
Without it, the Jays would probably be out of playoffs spot right now.

Still, they have 2 off days this week and neither Manoah nor Ryu fit in the pen.
So the logical choice is to send Manoah down for a relief pitcher who will only be used in low leverage.
I look forward to another Blue Jays debut.
As long as players are on the 40 roster, I like them to get a cup of coffee.

Leaside Cowboy - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#434076) #
Reed Johnson returned to Toronto with the Cubs and received a warm welcome. If memory serves, the game was played indoors while a thunder-storm raged outside.
uglyone - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#434077) #
"The 6 man rotation worked well.
Without it, the Jays would probably be out of playoffs spot right now."

If by worked well you mean gave us worse starting pitching and worse relief pitching, then yes it worked well.
scottt - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#434079) #
When's the last time the pen allowed a run?
The starting pitching has been excellent.
Kikuchi came out of Japan where they pitch once a week.
Ryu didn't allow a single run on the extra day of rest.
Gausman's splitter causes blisters.
Bassitt has been the apostle of the 6-man rotation.

The next opportunity for an extra starter comes on the 27 against Cleveland at home. I'd pass, but the next day is against Washington. There's also the possibility of having to play a doubleheader on the road, either in Cincinnati or Baltimore. Then the next big stretch is from Sept 8 to 17.

The real story is Ryu over Manoah and that could be revisited if Ryu has a couple of bad games.


James W - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#434080) #
When's the last time the pen allowed a run?

Monday.
Magpie - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#434081) #
If by worked well you mean gave us worse starting pitching and worse relief pitching

They ran the six man rotation from August 1 (Ryu's season debut) through yesterday, and in those 10 games they allowed 34 runs. If they were allowing 3.4 runs per game all season, I think we'd be in a pretty good mood.

The bullpen's ERA was 3.73 during those 10 games, slightly above their season figure of 3.63, mainly because they allowed 9 of those runs in the very first of those 10 games. (They allowed 4 runs in 26 innings over the other 9 games.) The six starters pitched to an ERA of 3.18, which is not too shabby.
scottt - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 07:16 PM EDT (#434082) #
I guess it's another game that's only available on the crap company streaming service.

3rd one I think. It's probably so folks who take a temporary membership get screwed as well.
And they achieve this by doing 2 games every Friday. I guess they don't care about the quality of the product.

I see they will blank next week's game against the Reds which will run concurrently with a Yankees/Red Sox game.
Maybe the interns will broadcast that one.


Leaside Cowboy - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 07:17 PM EDT (#434083) #
José Berríos roughed up in the 1st.
uglyone - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#434084) #
Yep.

* Ryu 4.00
* Manoah 5.90

And bullpen worse as you detailed.
99BlueJaysWay - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#434085) #
He was. He left the two pitches in bad spots. They weren’t really crushed though - 98 and 101. They just had the right launch angles to get over the wall (Bellingers was 41 degrees, and if memory serves 45 degrees gets you the maximum distance)
Magpie - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#434086) #
A team that has been allowing 4 runs per game has a 10 game stretch when they allow 3.4 runs per game. This is not worse, although I am quite happy to see the last of the six man rotation.
soupman - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 07:44 PM EDT (#434087) #
Fans of this team seem to continue to wring their hands while we watch a very good run prevention team.
uglyone - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#434090) #
well at least Berrios is nice and rested.
uglyone - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#434092) #
good thing this one doesn't count against the "6 man rotation stats".
Four Seamer - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#434093) #
I keep going back and forth as to whether this is a “good” bad team or a “bad” good team, but either way it has a middling-to-poor manager and will be life and death to make the “playoffs”.
greenfrog - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#434094) #
It’s too bad there were no good bats available at the trade deadline. Look at Jeimer Candelario, for example. Since his trade to the Cubs, he’s hitting only .485/.541/.727 … oh, never mind.
Petey Baseball - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 08:53 PM EDT (#434095) #
If nothing comes of this season, I guess the highlight will be...the play of Whit Merrifield?


Magpie - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#434096) #
Hey, I'm sorry they gave up fewer runs while they had six guys in the rotation. It's not my fault. I don't like it either. As far as I can tell, the only person who actually likes pitching every sixth day is Kevin Gausman.
scottt - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#434097) #
So you think they should have traded for Candelario and sat Chapman?
scottt - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#434098) #
Gausman, Bassitt, Kikuchi and Ryu (Ryu and his extra day of rest was a topic a few years ago).

The one guy who might not care is Berrios. Manoah doesn't really matter anymore.

The last spot in the pen was used by White. You guys miss him?

uglyone - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#434099) #
yep definitely shouldn't count Berrios' start tonight as part of the 6 man rotation.

and we definitely need to ignore that the 5th and 6th starters were both bad.
scottt - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#434100) #
Let's go with Berrios. This year on 4 days of rest 3.53 ERA. On 5 days, 2.43.

Of course, that doesn't include today's game because you can't make decisions based on hindsight.

Magpie - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 09:27 PM EDT (#434101) #
Oh, for the love of... All right, let's count tonight. 40 runs in 11 games is still better than what they've done over the rest of the season. Except now the bullpen has actually improved its ERA over these 11 games. Happy now?

The fifth and sixth starters were bad? Well, Manoah was just as bad, if not worse, in the five man rotation. But Ryu? Four runs in nine innings is bad?
scottt - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#434102) #
Assad was moved from the pen to the rotation on July 31.

First start, 3.2 innings, 0 earned runs.
Second start, 3.2 innings, 2 earned runs.
This start, 7 innings, 1 earned run.

Once again, the Jays hitters are failing to impress me. 

uglyone - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#434103) #
you're trying to compare to season average for some reason but the plain fact is the 6 man rotation forced a lesser starter into the rotation. I'm not sure how much more blatant it could get. you can compare to season average if you want but the plain fact is they would have been even better in this stretch if Manoah or Ryu were dropped.

(and yes, in addition, the 5th starter putting up a 4era while only going 4.5ip/gs is also not good.)

and why wouldn't you include tonight? or the next few nights where the starters will all still be pitching in a 6 man rotation? including these starts isn't some sort of favour, it's just the correct thing to do.
scottt - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 09:36 PM EDT (#434104) #
Guardians in Tampa, 8-8 in the 9th. 

The Rays aren't seeing the same team.

Magpie - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#434105) #
I'm fine with including tonight. But I couldn't include it before they played it.

The lesser starter wasn't added to the rotation - he was already there. I suspect the team just wanted to be sure that Ryu looked like Ryu before they gave him Manoah's spot. And you know perfectly well that Ryu wasn't pulled after four innings last time out because he was pitching poorly.
soupman - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#434106) #
I left the room but it looked like Vlad let another ball through his glove. That’s what? Three times that’s happened now? Since he’s obviously not able to stop chewing through the laces maybe the equipment manager needs to do something different.
scottt - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#434107) #
Yeah, the 6-man rotation adds a 6th man. I think we all understand that.

That's a side effect though. The whole point is to get the other 5 guys to start on 5 days of rest instead of  4.
What difference does that make? Best way to estimate that is to use season number to see what improvement in performance that produces.

Berrios, ERA of 3.53 to 2.43
Gausman, 4.98 to 1.52.
Bassitt, 3.39 to 3.91. (Bassitt gets more strikeouts with the extra day but that hasn't actually mattered much.)
Kikuchi, 3.31 to 4.10. (Kikuchi's ERA in August is down to 1.38. The ERA is inflated from his second start where is allowed 6 ER.)

I don't believe the pen was overused. Some pitchers were rotated. You have liked to see Pearson pitch more innings maybe?

The other thing here are the schedule days of rest given to the position players.
Are you OK with those? That didn't exactly spark the offense.

scottt - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#434108) #
Is Danner injured again?
92-93 - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#434109) #
Yep, what a terrible outcome for an MLB debut. At least he’ll earn an MLB paycheque while on the IL.
Magpie - Friday, August 11 2023 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#434110) #
I left the room but it looked like Vlad let another ball through his glove.

Nothing wrong with the glove. Not this time.
vw_fan17 - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 02:04 AM EDT (#434111) #
Seattle 0.5 games behind.. We might be out of a playoff spot as soon as tomorrow..
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 03:46 AM EDT (#434112) #
Not to be too much of a bummer, but Seattle is ahead of the Jays in the loss column. They’re only behind because they have 3 games in hand. The season series is tied and the next tie breaker is inter-division record…

This team needs a nice long win streak.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#434113) #
2022 Jay's postseason team evaluation by management:

Shapiro: Well, what went wrong this year?

Atkins: I blame it all on Kikuchi.

Shapiro: Right, but besides that, I think we need to get better defensively.

Atkins: Okay, but we'll have to sacrifice some offense.


2023 Jay's postseason team evaluation by management:

Shapiro: Well, what went wrong this year?

Atkins: I blame it all on Manoah.

Shapiro: Right, but besides that, I think we need to get better offensively.

Atkins: Okay, but we'll have to sacrifice some defense.
ISLAND BOY - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#434114) #
2022 Jay's postseason team evaluation by management:

Shapiro: Well, what went wrong this year?

Atkins: I blame it all on Kikuchi.

Shapiro: Right, but besides that, I think we need to get better defensively.

Atkins: Okay, but we'll have to sacrifice some offense.


2023 Jay's postseason team evaluation by management:

Shapiro: Well, what went wrong this year?

Atkins: I blame it all on Manoah.

Shapiro: Right, but besides that, I think we need to get better offensively.

Atkins: Okay, but we'll have to sacrifice some defense.
bpoz - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#434115) #
ISLAND BOY that is correct I think regarding the better D VS the worse O. The pitching is better this year overall I think except for Manoah's decline. There seems to be weaker spots in O in that Varsho for one cannot match Teo/Gurriel. I also did not think KK would match Teo/Gurriel. He is not a full time player as well.

I feel strongly that more O will be added this off season.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#434116) #
I think the frustration lies from the team not able to coax even the career average out of guys. Someone on this site has already put the most damning indictment of this into a chart comparing the dropoffs from career #'s to '23.
I'd be very suprised if they shook up the coaching staff this late in the season but if they slip out of a playoff spot and continue to struggle offensively, it's pretty much the only move they have left, no?

I think the only optimism I can muster at this point is remembering how bad Bichette was at times last season, and how quickly and dramatically he turned his season around late last year.
jerjapan - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#434117) #
Yeah, tough break for Danner!  But better here than in Buffalo for sure.
I had him, Cabrera and Francis as my interchangeable 8/9/10s on my depth chart.  Jackson next.  
Francis is sure looking good right now to me. Eight Bisons' 'starts' of 3-4 innings.  Throwing strikes, working multiple innings in the bigs?   I think we need that role as much if not more than a second lefty.  

Rafael Lantigua sure deserves a call-up.  Maybe he could get some ABs against righties?  That .922 OPS vs. righties is no joke.
He plays all over the place too .... any thoughts on his D?
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#434118) #
Robinzon Díaz for José Bautista.
scottt - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#434119) #
The career average is probably not the right way to look at it.
One is as likely to be under his average as over it.

It takes a few years to establish a credible baseline.
Once that's done the player is already in decline.

Dejong has a career OPS of .724.
With the Cards he had an OPS of .710.
With the Jays, in 9 games before yesterday it was .129.

I doubt that's because of the coaching.
I would imagine he's mostly doing his thing.
BAbip was over .400 in April, over 300 in June and July but just .095 in August.
Strikeouts are up, walks are way down. Maybe he's unfamiliar with the pitching.
Asad is kinda like the long relief guy for the Cubs.

soupman - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#434120) #
Former Blue Jays Jordan Luplow has become a Kimbrel clone in his Twins incarnation (!):
https://www.mlb.com/news/jordan-luplow-imitates-craig-kimbrel-pitching
hypobole - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#434121) #
Bref and FG WAR are converging on Vlad - 0.8 bWAR, 0.4 fWAR. There are people making all sorts of excuses for him but that is nothing short of awful for a guy who was supposed to be this teams offensive centrepiece.

No 1st baseman has cost his team more runs defensively by either DRS or RAA.
dalimon5 - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#434122) #
He's looking more and more like an average first baseman. I don't see the trade value he has now. You could sell low on him if another team believes he cant do better but nobody will pay more than an average first baseman with upside price.

What an unfortunate turn that management was caught in the wring side of. Vladdy has had many detractors including myself only when he's brandished as the centerpiece of this core.

Alek Manoah
Nate Pearson
Vladimir Guerreo Jr
Bo Bichette

Down
Bust
Wilted
Superstar




dalimon5 - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#434123) #
*can and *wrong meant

99% of my posts are of the mobile variety
85bluejay - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#434124) #
I see the WC slipping away - Can Atkins survive no playoffs?
hypobole - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#434125) #
A while back I mentioned Bo being drafted despite the scouting director Parker not wanting to do so. But one scout in particular was adamant and Parker relented.

FO's work much the same way. There is input from a bunch of people, with the GM having the ultimate say, provided his superiors approve. How many of the good Atkins moves were his idea, how many were input from others that he acceded to? How many failures were his or others. Shapiro knows, we don't.

That said, Rogers seems more results than process oriented, or at least they were with AA. So who knows what will happen with Atkins.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#434126) #
65 W - 53 L, on pace for 89 wins. 118 games played, with 44 games to go. Projected record of 24 - 20.

93 wins is a good target, which means a record of 28 - 16. Tough task ahead.
soupman - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#434129) #
Definitely doable and they have a really soft schedule for the next few weeks. No time like the present!
hypobole - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#434132) #
The bat flip never gets old.
hypobole - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#434133) #
Tommy Pham was the guy we wanted at the deadline. He hit a HR last night. That brought his OPS+ up to 46 in a DBacks uniform.
Magpie - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 03:39 PM EDT (#434134) #
The bat flip never gets old.

Never.
scottt - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#434135) #
Not making excuses, but before the winter, I didn't think they could trade Teoscar/Gurriel because I couldn't picture Vladdy without them.

I think what he needs is a young Latino prospect for him to take under his wing.

92-93 - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#434136) #
Call up Orelvis? He can’t be any worse than DeJong.
Magpie - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#434137) #
He can’t be any worse than DeJong.

This guy once hit 30 homers. He played in an All-Star game. I know 10 games is a small sample, but...
92-93 - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#434138) #
But what?

It was a joke. He's also been so bad in that 10g cameo that he sits against a lefty with Biggio in the lineup. Thankfully Schneider isn't caught up with what he did in 2019.
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#434139) #
Nice start for Bassitt!
4K through 2IP
hypobole - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 04:22 PM EDT (#434140) #
DeJong has been nothing short of pathetic with the bat, but Steele has actually had a bit more success vs RHB's than LHB's due to his unique 4 seamer.
dalimon5 - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#434141) #
I’m getting tired of seeing the same 3 Blue Jays in commercials who also happen to be the most underperforming.
92-93 - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 04:27 PM EDT (#434142) #
What's unique about Steele's 4-seamer this year? He has normal career splits.
Polite Nate - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#434143) #
Safe to say there probably wasn't much advance scouting on Schneider in Boston, but since that series it seems to me they are attacking him with high fastballs pretty successfully. Hopefully he can adjust.
Magpie - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#434144) #
But what?

But maybe he was kidnapped by aliens, who have switched his body with some ringer.

It would explain a lot.
hypobole - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#434145) #
It's a 4 seamer that acts like a cutter.
92-93 - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#434146) #
And it only started acting like a cutter this season?
greenfrog - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#434148) #
The Jays are reeling. A 4-1 lead seems near-insurmountable at this point.
uglyone - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#434149) #
Another well rested starting pitcher.
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#434150) #
Rough inning. Everyone hit Candelario had an EV over 100mph
Gerry - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#434151) #
Schneider is having trouble with the fastball up. I think he will be back in AAA soon to work on that.

Has he had a hit this week?
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#434152) #
No hits since Boston. 11AB, 7K
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#434153) #
Vlad just struck out on 6 pitches. None were strikes. 1 was close
James W - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#434154) #
That ground rule double summarizes the luck of this Jays season.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#434155) #
Yup. They finally, finally get a clutch 2 out, extra base hit with RISP....and the ball bounces out which costs them a run.
scottt - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#434156) #
I don't know if you can work on that in AAA.
You ask the manager of the other team to have his pitcher throw high fastballs?

He's still having good ABs.
He's not chasing.
He's not freezing on pitches in the zone.
(I missed the last couple of games, so I might be wrong.)

greenfrog - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#434157) #
This feels like a game the Jays need to win, for morale purposes as much as anything.
dalimon5 - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#434158) #
I'm a season ticket holder as some might know. I remember following Drunk Jays Fans and other blogs in 2014/2015 and dreaming about the day Vlad arrived in Toronto. It never occurred to me that maybe the best slugger we would ever have was already in his prime at the time.

At one of the games that season I struck up a conversation with an old man decked out in New York Yankees gear. I distinctly remember talking about A-Rod and Vladdy. He just told me "I don't know who you're talking about (Vlad) but i'll tell you one thing, Bautista is pretty damn good." To that I replied he's alright but not a hall of famer like Derek Jeter. His reply? "I think Bautista is pretty special and Toronto is lucky to have someone that special. He has the same sound off the bat as Joey Dimaggio."

That kind of through me for a loop and reminded me there's more to numbers. This guy was in town from NY and scratching things off his bucket list like visiting the "SkyDome."
christaylor - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#434159) #
Vlad is our guy for a couple of more years but perhaps a position change to full-time DH is needed.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#434160) #
Swanson has been very solid this year. After today's outing, he's thrown 53.1 IP with a 3.44 ERA (2.96 xERA), 10.29 K/9IP and 3.1 BB/9IP.

Not as good as last year but still a strong performance. And he's been relied on heavily by Schneider. He's on track to well surpass his innings total from last year.
Four Seamer - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#434161) #
Man, does Kirk ever have uncompetitive at-bats.
Hodgie - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#434162) #
I remember a time when this team used to feast on fastballs instead of taking them middle-middle just to swing at the sliders out of the zone. As much as it is the deck chairs on the Titanic sort of thing, I don't imagine Martinez survives this performance this season.
greenfrog - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#434163) #
Didn't the Jays make Bellinger an offer early in the off-season?
scottt - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#434164) #
Speaking of working on something.
Kirk chased a slider that was very low and to chase it he used a swing that produces ground ball.
I would accept a golf swing, but there is no reason to try to get a ground ball with a runner on first.
I know the catcher has to focus on catching, but surely somebody could talk to him about situational hitting.

scottt - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#434165) #
Maybe he wanted to be in a central division to work himself into a long term deal?
greenfrog - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 06:28 PM EDT (#434166) #
WC standings based on run differential:

Tampa
Houston
Seattle
Toronto
Boston
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 06:46 PM EDT (#434167) #
The Metropolitans surrender 21 runs to Atlanta in game 1 of a double-header. The New York Mets.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#434168) #
A salute to the Blue Jays organization for a donation of $100 K to the Holland Bloorview Kids Hospital, which is located in the neighbourhood of Leaside.
99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, August 12 2023 @ 09:35 PM EDT (#434172) #
Agreed, Leaside.
hypobole - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 01:18 AM EDT (#434173) #
"I think Bautista is pretty special and Toronto is lucky to have someone that special. He has the same sound off the bat as Joey Dimaggio."

Where have you gone Joey Bats
Jays Nation turns its lonely eyes to you
Cause Vlad won't do

What's that you say Mr. dalimon
Jolting Jose has left and gone away
Playoffs Jays won't play
Jays won't play

Yeah, I ain't no Paul Simon.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 04:45 AM EDT (#434174) #
Art Garfunkel: " I never followed the crowd. So as a Queens kid, I didn't want to be a Dodger, Yankee, or Giant fan. One day when I was 8 I went to Ebbets Field and saw the Phillies with their red pinstripes, Robin Roberts, [Puddin' Head] Jones. Somehow, this was for me. "
85bluejay - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 07:25 AM EDT (#434175) #
Vladdy wants to get back to his grandma cooking ASAP - the playoffs will only delay that.
bpoz - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 07:43 AM EDT (#434176) #
The playoff races in each league are very exciting. In the AL the top 6 teams are fighting for 5 playoff positions. In the NL it is even tighter 6 teams #3-8 are fighting for 4 positions.

Points of interest for me are Boston & NYY are in a very stressful position of missing the playoffs.

Cubs, Miami, Cincinnati, Arizona, Baltimore, Texas are 1st time in a few years in the playoff race.

It is too early to follow the race for worst teams.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#434177) #
I believe Baltimore was on the fringes of the wild card race last year before fading in September. They look like they will be contenders for the next several years at least.
ISLAND BOY - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#434178) #
I believe Baltimore was on the fringes of the wild card race last year before fading in September. They look like they will be contenders for the next several years at least.
greenfrog - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 09:31 AM EDT (#434179) #
Baltimore beat Seattle 1-0 yesterday. Kirby pitched a 9-inning shutout for Seattle before the bullpen gave up a run in the 10th inning.

The Jays really need to get their act together.
bpoz - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#434180) #
Some teams are streaky. I think Seattle and Texas are streaky. Like 10+ win streaks. IMO the Jays are not streaky. My faulty memory tells me that the only time they were streaky was after the 2015 deadline.

I expect Seattle & Texas to have a losing streak.
electric carrot - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 10:37 AM EDT (#434181) #
My impression of the Cubs series so far is that Chicago is a really good team. Their lineup is stacked.
hypobole - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#434184) #
Concerns (including mine) about Schneider's defence seem to have been overblown, at least so far. He's looked much like the competent guy I watched in AAA, who made all the routine plays, a couple of tough plays , but nothing spectacular.

For Biggio fans who missed his play in Cleveland, Jay Jaffe had it as the #1 thing he liked in his weekly 5 things column.
 
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/five-things-i-liked-or-didnt-like-this-week-august-11/
Chuck - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#434187) #
Even with his 100 MPH stuff, Hicks has only struck out 3 of the 24 batters he has faced as a Jay.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#434188) #
" Back to the Future Part II " (1989) predicted the Cubs would sweep Miami and win the 2015 World Series.  A year later, the Cubs won the 2016 World Series.
christaylor - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#434189) #
However the big failure was to predict that Miami would be added to the AL not the NL.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 02:10 PM EDT (#434190) #
That's the thing with Hicks. Before this year, despite his crazy velocity, he hadn't actually struck out that many hitters (career 8.8 K/9 coming into 2023). Not even averaging a strikeout per inning despite throwing 102mph. This year he's finally putting up the Ks you'd expect. It's only 24 batters faced since the trade though.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#434191) #
HP: Nate Tomlinson. 1B: Brian O'Nora. 2B: Pat Hoberg. 3B: Nestor Ceja.

Daulton Varsho delivers.
Chuck - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#434192) #
Buck categorized Varsho’s troubles this year as high fastballs in the strike zone. Isn’t the real problem his propensity to chase high fastballs above the strike zone?
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#434193) #
Has Varsho figured something out? Sources say, maybe!

https://twitter.com/fan590/status/1689288881932279808?s=46&t=4l5Asp9-bvrJ1JLMCd0Xlg

https://twitter.com/downtoblack/status/1689270115206828032?s=46&t=4l5Asp9-bvrJ1JLMCd0Xlg


Apologies for the full link. I haven’t figured out how to link properly on the site. I used this command: , and put the link after the colon and inside the square bracket. When I do that nothing shows up
Chuck - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#434194) #
I haven’t figured out how to link properly on the site.

Google the HTML [a] tag (replacing my square brackets with angled ones).

Magpie - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#434196) #
I haven’t figured out how to link properly on the site.

I switch to Firefox when I need to post a link  - that way I can get into the source code.


scottt - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#434197) #
Yesterday's hit on Hicks looked like a slider, for what it's worth.

103mph doesn't help if you don't throw it.

scottt - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#434198) #
The one thing Baltimore hasn't done is sign players to extension.
Santander has one year left.
Cedrid Mullins and Austin Hays have two.
I'm not sure what they will look like in a couple of years.
They should be contenders but so should the rest of the division.
I am not going to write the Yankees off.

scottt - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#434199) #
I, for one, am glad to have Ryu on an extra day of rest.
soupman - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#434201) #
I was looking up the the standings. I’ve been watching to see if the jays can squeak into the lead for best runs against….right on their heels? The padres. The padres have also scored at the same clip as the jays this year and have the same expected record. Of course the padres are out of the playoff race, but I found it interesting. Two teams widely favoured by experts in the spring - producing two very similar seasons but with a big spread in outcomes.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#434202) #
Miami rallies for 5 runs in the 9th to beat the Yankees by a score of 8-7.
John Northey - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#434204) #
Wow. Nice to see the Yankees continue to blow it.

So today, Jays win, O's M's tied at 1 in the 5th, Red Sox beat the Tigers, Cleveland pounded the Rays, Yanks embarrassed by the Marlins, Angels beat the Astros 2-1. So Jays will be 7 or 8 back of Baltimore, 1/2 or 1 1/2 ahead of Seattle, 3 up on Boston, 5 on the Yankees, 6 1/2 on the Angels, 8 1/2 on Cleveland. In the 3 WC slots Tampa has 5 on the Jays, Astros 2 1/2.

Not ideal, but not bad either for where to be on August 13th 120 games in. 42 to go.
soupman - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 05:53 PM EDT (#434205) #
After a quick two games against the Phillies…the next month has 3 games against the O’s which would be a quick 3 game swing if all works out and otherwise the series are: Reds, Guardians, Nats, Rockies, A’s, Royals…basically all the teams that were out of it before the deadline (and the reds who have been in free fall since). This is the softest part of the schedule and a golden opportunity for them to go on a real tear and take the east lead.
Magpie - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#434206) #
Even with his 100 MPH stuff, Hicks has only struck out 3 of the 24 batters he has faced as a Jay.

About two weeks ago, the not-so-handsome-one posted a little list of the average fastball velocity out of the Jays bullpen, and this is what it looked like:

Hicks 101.0
Pearson 98.1
Romano 96.7
Cabrera 95.9
Garcia 95.9
Pop 95.9
White 94.0
Swanson 93.7
Mayza 93.3
Jackson 93.3
Richards 92.9

I would especially draw your attention to the fact that the Blue Jays pitcher who strikes out batters more frequently than anyone else on the staff - one Trevor Richards - is also the one with the least impressive fastball of them all.

Well, that's if velocity is how you care to measure such things by. But it certainly shouldn't be! As everyone surely understands! As Ron Gardenhire once explained to a hard throwing prospect on his way back to AAA, "at this level, son, hard, hard, harder just gets hit, hit, hit."


hypobole - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#434207) #
Yes Magpie. That's why I was puzzled by peoples concern that Ryu's FB was only at 88 during his rehab. Remember thinking he hasn't averaged 90 since he joined the Jays.  It's all the other stuff, especially his command and his secondaries,  that are what's important.
uglyone - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#434208) #
The good news is that according to Pitch Info, Ryu is averaging 89.1 on his 4 seamer so far, just a tick off the 89.9, 89.8, and 89.4 he put up his first 3yrs here. And we can probably except him to bump that up a bit as he continues to loosen that arm up.
hypobole - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#434209) #
The good news is that in spite of losing 2 of 3 to the Cubs, Jays didn't lose any ground to the Mariners, who also lost 2 of 3. The heroes of the O's win were Cedric Mullins, who hit a 2 run 10th inning HR and Trent Thornton, who served it up.
John Northey - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#434210) #
Holy crap - Wander Franco's career looks to be over. He was dating a 14 year old in the Dominican and now is on the restricted list according to some reports. Crazy stuff.
hypobole - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 11:40 PM EDT (#434213) #
Danny was twice hit by pitches today.
Danny has been hit by pitches 7 times in his last 58 PA's.

Whit was not hit by a pitch today.
Whit has been hit by pitches 7 times in his last 1915 PA's.


John Northey - Sunday, August 13 2023 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#434214) #
I suspect the book on Danny is to pitch inside which jumps the odds of a HBP, but Merrifield's book is probably outside, which would reduce the odds. Merrifield has been hit 3 times this year, 0 times last year. 28 times lifetime over 4391 PA (1 every 157 PA). Jansen 7 times this year, 23 times lifetime over 1346 PA (1 every 59 PA). Craig Biggio holds the modern record for HBP at 285 in 12504 PA - 1 per 44 PA. So Cavan's dad got hit more often than Jansen, even accounting for the difference in PA. Amazing he lasted as long as he did (20 seasons).
hypobole - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 12:37 AM EDT (#434215) #
This season, both are 31% in, 50% away. Danny gets a bit more up and in, Whit a bit more down and away.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 04:34 AM EDT (#434217) #
" Sunday’s promotion at Tropicana Field was the Wander Franco Snapback Hat for fans 14 and under. "
Michael - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 05:07 AM EDT (#434218) #
The fact that the promotion for the Rays was a Franco related thing (on a day that he got an off day "for no particular reason" according to Cash) is odd. The fact the promotion was for kids 14 and under just writes the jokes for themselves given the suspected person Franco was in a relationship with was 14.

Apparently there is some amount of it that could be cultural given that about 1 in 8 girls is married before her 15th birthday in the Dominican Republic - although within the last two years the marriage age was legally raised to 18 so even in the light most charitable to Franco, that wouldn't be a kosher relationship. And needless to say the US laws will not take kindly to that - and US law covers US citizens and residents even when they are out of the country, so even if this were legal in DR (which it isn't), this would still violate US law (assuming the relationship was sexual, which is what the allegations seem to assume).

And then even once you get through the legal challenges, you have the PR challenges.

If Franco looks at Felipe Vazquez that's a recent similar comp of an All-Star level player that none-the-less ended his career with Vazquez behind bars.
scottt - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 08:19 AM EDT (#434219) #
Danny Jansen declared himself a pull-hitter last year.
The book on him is not to pitch inside unless its off the plate.
This is something Ryu can do easily but the average pitcher is likely to miss which is what we're seeing.

scottt - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 08:24 AM EDT (#434221) #
Franco was in the dugout at the start of the game but left about half way through.
He didn't travel to SF where the Rays are playing next.

scottt - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 08:32 AM EDT (#434222) #
Ryu's ERA is down to 2.57.
If he can keep pitching like that it will make things a lot easier.

Phillies, Reds. Sort of an average week.
Every starter goes only once; 2 with  5 days or rest and 3 with 6--which is usually counterproductive.
Only 4 games on TV. The Saturday game is a night game, at least.

Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#434223) #
Whole lotta shakin' goin' on.
Magpie - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 08:58 AM EDT (#434225) #
I saw what you did there.
hypobole - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#434226) #
Something Bucky pointed out yesterday was that up and in pitches, Danny's turning his head away, but leaving his hands exposed. Kinda late in his career to change that habit, but something he has to try to work on.
John Northey - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#434230) #
Ryu has really earned his slot in the rotation quickly hasn't he? I had him as a write off and thought the Jays from a practical 40 man roster POV might want to just release him rather than hold onto him last winter. But dang if they didn't do the right thing holding on. 2.57 ERA vs a 3.91 FIP - the team has a 3.70 ERA vs 4.08 FIP so he has a bigger spread than the team probably due to his low K/9 of 5.1 vs the teams 9.4. Scary that a K an inning is now low. 5.1 is close to Dave Stieb's career mark of 5.2 - different era but back then he was seen as a strikeout pitcher at times (yeah, Nolan Ryan did the K+ per inning but there weren't many of those then outside of closers).

Right now I suspect the Jays rotation if the playoffs started today would be Gausman-Berrios-Kikuchi-Bassitt but Ryu would be in the discussion depending on opponent. So we have 2 power arms in Gausman-Kikuchi, Berrios who is an interesting mix, then Bassitt-Ryu a R-L combo of tons of pitches - you never know what either will through at any time. Makes for a good variety of pitch styles. What to do about Manoah? If we didn't have Ryu he'd still be here I think, struggling along but slowly getting better. He'll have a slot next year with G-K-B-B, Ryu as a free agent will probably go elsewhere, although with the deep pitching in the free agent market who knows? Depends if the Jays want a 6 man rotation in 2024.
electric carrot - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#434231) #
Did anyone else notice that the Jays are now tied with Tampa for the second fewest runs allowed in the AL? I was surprised to see that. Not bad for a team whose best pitcher is now in triple A.
Magpie - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#434232) #
tied with Tampa for the second fewest runs allowed in the AL?

The Jays and Tampa have actually allowed fewer runs per game than the Mariners (who have played three fewer games.)
uglyone - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#434234) #
Team Pitching:

ERA-

* 1.ATL 87
* 2.TOR 88
* 3.CLE 89
* 4.HOU/PHI/SFG 90


FIP-

* 1.SEA 90
* 2.PHI 91
* 2.MIN 91
* 4.SFG 93
* 5.ATL 93
* 6.MIA 93
* 7.TOR 94
* 7.LAD 94



Magpie - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#434235) #
The Jays and Tampa are both likely to go the rest of the way without the pitcher who came into the season as the team's ace starter, a 2022 all-star, someone who received Cy Young votes. But the Jays going without Manoah actually improves the pitching. The Rays losing McClanahan is unlikely to do that.
uglyone - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#434236) #
Starters

IP/GS

* 1.SEA 5.67
* 2.HOU 5.63
* 3.MIN 5.62
* 4.TEX 5.58
* 5.PHI 5.54
* 6.TOR 5.48

ERA-

* 1.TEX 88
* 2.SDP 89
* 3.TOR 90
* 4.HOU 91
* 5.MIN/CLE/PHI 92

FIP-

* 1.TBR 87
* 1.MIN 87
* 3.PHI 91
* 4.SEA 92
* 5.MIA 94
* 6.SDP 95
* 7.TEX 96
* 8.TOR 97


Bullpen

ERA-

* 1.NYY 77
* 2.ATL 78
* 3.TOR 84
* 3.SFG 84
* 5.SEA/CLE/PHI 85

FIP-

* 1.BAL 84
* 2.ATL 85
* 3.SFG 87
* 4.SEA 87
* 5.TOR 89
dalimon5 - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#434237) #
It's a combination of pitching and defense that has propelled the Jays. Everybody is waiting for the best hitters to start hitting to career norms for this team to take off.

This would have been the year to add another bat at the deadline to help this offense.
hypobole - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#434240) #
Seeing Edwin in the dugout reminded me of something I've been meaning to post for some time. Edwin's 2010/2011 seasons were somewhat similar to what Vlad is doing this season.  Edwin was not satisfied. In a show of commitment to improve, he didn't spend the the off-season relaxing, he spent it with Luis Mercedes and redid his swing.  2012 started great and by July, AA (very smart GM) had signed him to an extension that kept him a Blue Jay through 2016.

Unfortunately, commitment isn't everything. Kevin Smith shot up the prospect rankings and was top 5 in the system entering his 2019 season in AA. Jays tried to change his swing to fix its biggest hole. Didn't work, he was a mess. His brain was trying to use the new swing, but his "muscle memory" was still reverting to his old swing. He ended up ditching the new swing halfway through the season.  In addition to commitment to improve, you also need the ability.

So what is Vlad? He should be among the HR leaders, not behind 51 other players. Does he have Edwin's commitment? Does he have the ability to adjust Smith didn't? The answers to those 2 questions will go a long way in determining his fate and the fate of the Blue Jays.




uglyone - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#434241) #
it still makes little sense that the Jays are borderline top-5 in overall hitting metrics while only 16th in runs per game.

there's just no reason that this shouldn't be a top tier offense, even looking at just this year's stats:

wRC+

* Bichette 135
* Belt 130
* Chapman 121
* Merrifield 117
* Guerrero 115
* Kiermaier 109
* Jansen 104
* Springer 102
* Varsho 77

* Kirk 95
* Biggio 95
* Dejong 77
* Espinal 74
* (Schneider 233)


and even better when you push it back a bit further...Past 1 calendar year:

* Bichette 147
* Jansen 125
* Merrifield 120
* Belt 119
* Chapman 115
* Springer 114
* Guerrero 112
* Kiermaier 109
* Varsho 84

* Kirk 96
* Biggio 87
* Espinal 85
* Dejong 62
* (Schneider 233)


They have only 1 weak spot in the order and otherwise are just very good throughout. There's no reason this offense shouldn't be a top one.

and hell, even that one weak spot is finally showing signs of life:

* Varsho last 15gms: 49pa, 114wrc+

scottt - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#434242) #
Jansen bats with bare hands which is not a great idea for a catcher.
After breaking his hand, he now wears hand pads.
Maybe he'll have to get thicker hand pads.

dalimon5 - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#434243) #
I've seen enough to count Vlad as someone that won't take the step Edwin or Jose did. I hope he proves his detractors wrong. Maybe in a few years when he can't rely so much on his natural ability will he start conceding and making bigger adjustments.

Do we know what Bo did last year to turn his season around? I can't believe it was something as simple as moving him down in the line up.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#434244) #
Franco to Restricted List through next road trip.
scottt - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#434245) #
Some people keep talking about adding another bat but where would that bat play?
There are no real holes to plug on this team.
Varsho plays great defense and he's the most likely guy to score if he can get on base.
Belt is doing OK. Biggio is hot.
DeJong is an automatic out while Bichette was leading the League in hits.
Espinal was supposed to play SS yesterday but ended at 3rd.
Both he and DeJong ended the day 1 for 5.

scottt - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#434246) #
E5 was 29 when he broke out. Vlad is 24.
Nobody can predict the future, but Vlad can hit the ball harder than Encarnation ever did.

Bo and Vladdy are different types of hitter.
Bo swings at everything near the strike zone until he can get something in play.
Vlads needs to be more selective.

hypobole - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#434248) #
Vlad will hit FA after the 2025 season and probably won't be a Blue Jay by the time he turns 29. Jays are built to win now. If he's going to do something, he better do it soon. Won't matter to us once he's gone.
85bluejay - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#434249) #
That Wander Franco situation has the potential to not only shake up the playoff race and to have devastating impact on the Tampa franchise.
dalimon5 - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#434255) #
At this point I would have taken a good LH bat at 2B or OF. In the offseason I would seriously explore trading for Juan Soto and going for it in 2024.
Michael - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#434256) #
Tampa at least will not have to pay him if he's put on the restricted list similar to others in the past. So it is a hit to Tampa but not as huge as if they had to pay out the nearly $200M contract with no player.
John Northey - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#434257) #
Vlad is doing a lot of things right - it just isn't showing up on the visible stats. FanGraphs has xwOBA which is what the stats underneath suggest a player should be producing - generally guys are within 10 points of it. Vlad's is 385 vs his wOBA of 336 - 49 point spread. That is nuts. Last year he was 4 points above his xwOBA at 351 (vs 347). 2021 was a 419 wOBA vs 417 xwOBA. Vlad is 8th in xwOBA this year. Only 5 of the top 50 in xwOBA are 30 or more points below - Vlad is #1 in negative spread, then Fernando Tatis Jr. -045, Marcell Ozuna -037, Ronald Acuna Jr. -033, Bobby Witt Jr. -030. These guys are all likely to do better going forward than current stats say (scary for Acuna Jr. who has a wRC+ of 167 this year).
92-93 - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#434259) #
Franco is still getting paid.

So is Bauer.
hypobole - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#434260) #
John, I posted something similar around the AS break. The gap was even a bit bigger then. Problem is he's closed the gap not by raising his wOBA, but by having his wOBA drop and xwOBA drop even more.

AS break - wOBA 342 - xwOBA 396 - spread 54
Now - wOBA 336 - xwOBA 385 - spread 49

And this one

AS break -SLG 443 - xSLG 547 - spread 104
Now SLG 439 - xSLG 519 - spread 80

His SLG has dropped a bit, but his xSLG is cratering.
hypobole - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#434261) #
Franco is on the restricted list and not being paid.

Bauer is totally different. He was on paid administrative leave, then suspended (194 games after arb) with no pay, then released. Released players get their pay.
92-93 - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#434262) #
Franco is still getting paid though. And would probably have had to commit a crime for the Rays to get out of the contract.
hypobole - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#434263) #
Where did you hear he's getting paid?
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#434264) #
USA Today: " Major League Baseball has officially launched an investigation into social media posts involving Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Wander Franco, and he has been placed on the restricted list, according to a statement from the team on Monday. Franco will miss the duration of the Rays' West Coast road trip . . . Players are not paid while they're on the restricted list. "
John Northey - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#434265) #
Well, if guilty of what he is accused of he did commit a crime - statutory rape at the least. Thing is the Rays would probably prefer he just be put on the restricted list forever instead of being able to get out of the contract as that would mean if he is reinstated he'd be theirs still (he is an excellent hitter) instead of going to the Yankees or Houston (both of which are A-OK with guys who beat women so probably would be OK with Franco too).
scottt - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#434266) #
I would wait until 2025 when Soto is a free agent.
In 2024, I'd rather they try the guys they have in AAA.
That would produce platoons and possibly a lot more long balls than what we have now.
Might not work, but it would be entertaining.

scottt - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#434267) #
xSLG is calculated from exit velocity and launch angles--and sprint speed on balls hit into the ground which we don't care about.  Not necessarily a cause for alarm. He's probably just hitting more balls into the ground which might be from swinging at breaking balls and off speed stuff.
hypobole - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#434268) #
No team, not even the Yankees or Astros is going to have a pedo play for them. I remember Luke Heimlich, the former Oregon State pitcher who pleaded guilty to sexually assaulting his niece when he was a teenager was touted as a 2nd round talent. He went undrafted and was last seen playing in Mexico.
92-93 - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#434269) #
@TBTimes_Rays “Franco will be paid during his time on the restricted list”
hypobole - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#434270) #
OK, they are allowed to pay him, teams almost never do. Suggests maybe the rumours of the "14 yr old" being a Junior Felix may have substance.
John Northey - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#434271) #
For this winter the Jays might go after Cody Bellinger for LF/CF/RF/1B - he has covered all of those over the years (mainly CF this year). He has had a nice comeback year with a 147 OPS+ in 87 games. His K's are waaaay down from the past 2 years when he sucked (66 OPS+ 244 K's in 900 PA) and entering his age 28 season he'll be looking for a long term deal at big bucks. The Jays went after him last winter but he felt he would get more playing time in Chicago so he went there I read somewhere but cannot find it now. He'd sure fit in perfectly with the goal of improved defense and offense - put him in LF everyday, Varsho in CF, Springer in RF - he'd move to CF when Varsho needs a day off. Resign Merrifield to cover LF when needed and 2B most of the time. Biggio & Espinal in their ideal roles as backups. 3B... if Chapman is not resigned then kids mixed with B & E. DH would be Horwitz and a mix/match of whoever needs a semi-day off. Keep an eye open for a RH power hitter who can't hit RH pitching thus would be cheaper to get ideally who can play LF.
hypobole - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#434273) #
Merrifield is very interesting. One side or the other almost always declines a mutual option, but..

For the Jays it would be $17.5 million, because the $500 K buyout is a sunk cost. Cheaper than declining and offering a QO, which would about $20 million plus the buyout.

Merrifield will be 35 in January. As well as he's played this year, how much will he get on the open market? ZIPS sees his next 3 seasons as 1.6, 1.0, 0.5 WAR. Maybe some team has a more rosy forecast or some GM really likes him. Or maybe he'll decline his option in hopes of getting and accepting a QO. But it's not a slam dunk the Jays will offer a QO in that case either.

John Northey - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 11:35 PM EDT (#434274) #
I'm betting the Jays try to resign Merrifield after the season to a 2 year + opt deal for $10 mil per. The option becoming a player one if he is in 100+ games in year 2 or something. Might work. Worst case is he is overpaid to be a backup/pinch runner in year 2/3.

Meanwhile tonight the Marlins beat the Astros, Atlanta pounded the Yankees, Rangers slaughtered the Angels, Royals just snuck by the Mariners, but the Rays & O's are winning. The Rays new SS Osleivis Basabe is 1-2 run scored, 2 RBI, and a walk. Dang that team is frustrating. They lose Franco, and might have a solid replacement in house for him. How do they do that?
hypobole - Monday, August 14 2023 @ 11:48 PM EDT (#434275) #
Quite the 9th in the Mariners-Royals game. Royals had a 5-4 lead with 2 outs, but consecutive RBI singles put the M's up 6-5. Royals got first and third on 2 singles and Samad pinch ran and stole 2nd. Perez sac fly tied it and moved Samad to 3rd, then he scored the walk off run a squeeze bunt.

When was the last time we walked it off on a squeeze bunt?
Michael - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 02:19 AM EDT (#434276) #
About the Rays paying Franco, my understanding is that they are paying him for the few days (the road trip) while he isn't with them and while MLB is investigating. If the investigation leads to a suspension (or end of career) then Tampa will not need to pay him.

This is similar to Bauer who was paid while on administrative leave (during the investigation) but was not paid when suspended (for violating the domestic violence and sexual assualt policy - which is the same policy that would cover Franco). Similar thing with Felipe Vazquez who the pirates don't have to pay while he's in jail due to the restricted list.

The point is that looking at the purely baseball $$ losing a highly paid star hurts the team only as much as the player was underpaid for their value and/or you can't replace that production even if you reallocate the money. But you don't need to pay the money for nothing, if the player is ineligible due to this, he doesn't get paid.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 09:53 AM EDT (#434278) #
Franco's under contract for another ten years, which is enough time to serve a lengthy suspension and/or prison sentence, and still return to the team owed $25+ million per year. The Dodgers ate the last year of Bauer's contract after his suspension was reduced to avoid having a sex offender on the team; that will be a lot more expensive in Tampa's case.

I'm sure everyone's lawyers are going over that contract very carefully right now.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 10:55 AM EDT (#434279) #
When was the last time we walked it off on a squeeze bunt?

In the Before Times? Well, the Royals do play half their games in a park that takes the home run out of the game. They need to do that sort of thing...

The Jays have four players - Kiermaier, Varsho, Merrifield, and Belt - who have demonstrated any skill, or even interest, in the ancient art of the bunt. Kirk, Guerrero and De Jong (!) have never even attempted a bunt in the major leagues; Springer, Chapman, and Bichette have tried to bunt a grand total of four times between them in their entire careers.

Belt has 30 bunt singles, most of them probably coming against the shift. Varsho has 25, Kiermaier 17, Merrifield 16. Kiermaier also has 15 sac bunts; Jansen is next with 5.
scottt - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#434281) #
I don't think I have seen Belt make an out on a bunt, shift or not.
The thirdbaseman is usually far enough to allow the runner to jog safely to first.

Belt squares at the last possible moment and still delivers a quality bunt. 
I've seen legions of Blue Jays players square  while the pitcher is getting ready and still not able to put the ball in play. Truly pathetic.

Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#434282) #
Frank Thomas (The Big Hurt) had 10,075 plate appearances, 8199 at-bats, with zero sacrifice hits.
scottt - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#434283) #
Shapiro has been on the record about never signing contracts with a player option.
If they don't offer a QO, he's a free agent without compensation, one of he best available.
He already left a lot of money on the table, I don't think he will do it again. 
John Northey - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#434284) #
DeJong did have a bunt - a sac bunt at age 23 in AAA in 2017 - OK, that is stretching it, but he has done it. Vlad and Kirk you don't expect to try it - Kirk because he'd be out by a mile unless they really screwed up, Vlad because he always is a risk to crank it a mile (even if he hasn't done so as much as we'd like this year). I remember way back when with George Bell how mad some fans were that he never ever bunted. At 18 and 19 he had 3 sac bunts for the Phillies minor league teams, but that was it in his pro-career.

Funny - just noticed in Bell's career he did something odd his final season - more RBI than OPS+ 64 RBI's vs an OPS+ of 63. Can't imagine that has happened often. He did it his 2nd last season too - 112 RBI vs a 99 OPS+. Joe Carter did it a lot - 1993 with 121 RBI vs a 112 OPS+, 1990 (SD) 115 vs 85, 1996 107 vs 95, 1987 (Cle) 106 vs 104, and 1997 102 vs 77. No one on the Jays now has a shot at that.
Hodgie - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#434285) #
"Well, the Royals do play half their games in a park that takes the home run out of the game."

Bobby Witt Jr. would like a word, Magpie.

PS - that boy can motor!

hypobole - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#434290) #
"Well, the Royals do play half their games in a park that takes the home run out of the game."

Bottom 9, tie game, runner at third with less than 2 outs. If your batter is trying to crank one over the fence, you might want to get a different smarter batter.
vw_fan17 - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#434292) #
Frank Thomas (The Big Hurt) had 10,075 plate appearances, 8199 at-bats, with zero sacrifice hits.

I see B-R labels "sac bunts" as: Sacrifice Hits (Sacrifice Bunts) and has a separate column labeled Sacrifice Flies (of which he had 121).

Strange to see a sac fly not called a sacrifice hit - the batter clearly HIT the ball (most likely into the outfield) in the case of a sac fly. While on a sac bunt, the batter didn't actually "hit" the ball in the traditional sense, he just tapped it with the bat. I would have thought sacrifice hits would be sac flies + sac bunts.

Is there such a thing as "hit-and-run" (instead of hit-and-bunt, aka suicide squeeze) with a runner on 3rd? Maybe the runner is trying to steal home and the batter swings? Would that count as a sacrifice hit? Even though it's not a bunt?
hypobole - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#434293) #
Wild card contenders remaining schedule by opponents win%

Tampa .519
Houston .479
Toronto .496
Seattle .476
Boston .536


Magpie - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#434294) #
Sure, but if you ask someone who doesn't know how to bunt to drop one down, you may need a smarter manager.
Magpie - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#434295) #
Would that count as a sacrifice hit?

It's only a sac hit if the batter (in the judgement of the official scorer) voluntarily made an out in order to advance the baserunner. A groundout that moves the runner from second to third is not a sac hit, but a bunt that does the same thing most likely would be. (The official scorer is free to decide that the batter was really bunting for a hit and not credit him with a sacrifice if he doesn't beat it out. They almost never do.)

A sac fly is any fly out that allows a runner to tag up and score. The current rule distinguishing them from sac hits dates back to 1954. Before that, they went in and out of the official record.
scottt - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#434297) #
Everybody knows how to bunt.
Bunting is taught in little leagues.
It takes only a few minutes and all the kids figure it out during their first try.

I think it's all about the players not wanting to bunt.
Let me swing or I'll just make an out.
It's like the players who don't hustle.
And unsurprisingly, guys who hustle like KK, Varsho and Merrifield are "good bunters". 

hypobole - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#434298) #
Sure, but there are things a batter could/should do do between swinging for the fences or dropping down a bunt in that situation.
scottt - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#434299) #
Let's see.

It counts as "players on the Restricted List for violation or possible violation of the Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy".

Cannot be reinstated after August 1 without consent of the MLB Commissioner.

A player still accrues service time unless he's on the Restricted List for any reason other than a Prohibited Substance or violence suspension. (Kinda vague wording.)

If one accrues service time, he most likely gets paid.

scottt - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 01:41 PM EDT (#434300) #
A player placed on Administrative Leave pending investigation .... is automatically placed on the Restricted List.
The player is paid and accrues MLB service time while on Administrative Leave.

The Commissioner has up to 7 days to complete its investigation.... but with consent of the MLBPA , the investigation can be extended 7 additional days.  14 days max.

After the completion of the investigation, the MLB commissioner can find there was no violation or find there was a violation and impose discipline... (unpaid suspension).. or find there was a violation but defer discipline... (not likely here).

Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, August 15 2023 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#434308) #
August 30th, 1992: Milwaukee @ Toronto. Bottom of the 8th, Blue Jays leading 5-3:

Joe Carter - Single to RF
Darren Holmes replaces Bill Wegman pitching
Dave Winfield - Bunt Groundout: C-1B/Sacrifice; Carter to 2B
John Olerud - Intentional Walk
Candy Maldonado - Hit By Pitch; Carter to 3B; Olerud to 2B
Kelly Gruber - Strikeout Swinging
Pat Borders - Groundout: SS-2B/Forceout at 2B

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