Before his game July 8,  Horwitz had 2 HR's in 247 AB's  for Buffalo. He's hit 7 HR's in 83 AB since.

Horwitz is now up to .327/.446/.485 (139 wRC+ and 931 OPS) on the season. When does he get his shot in the majors?

With the success of D Schneider (SSS) in the ML I have more faith in our prospects that were not highly rated.

Horwitz has 7 of his 9 HRs July 8 - Aug 8. Like Davis Schneider in AAA v good Avg & bb/k.

Barger earned his high prospect rating last year. Orelvis had a horrible April in NH then improved starting in early May. I thought that Orelvis would get fooled by the AAA pitchers throwing less hard but with a lot more control than the AA pitchers. He has adjusted quite well.

My imperfect prospect ranking is Barger/Orelvis in my top 10 and Schneider/Horwitz not in my top 10.

Horwitz may get a shot as Belt's replacement next year, or get a call up if either Belt/Vlad injured.

No question for me, Horwitz is first in line to replace Belt next year - Maybe he's taken a que from Davis Schneider success that power gets attention.

I also hope Rafael Lantigua get a shot - hope he works to increase his power stroke.

I missed class that day - "taken a cue" - sorry, must learn to read before posting.

“But a club with championship aspirations can't put that much trust in rookies, right?”

Probably not but I hope that’s what they end up doing. Orelvis could probably use a little more seasoning in AAA, unless he goes on an absolute tear to finish the season, but I’d have no issues with trusting Schneider (2B), Horowitz (DH), and Barger (3B/LF) with taking 3 of the 4 available spots next season. The Jays need to start incorporating more prospects into their big league spots if they want even a chance to still be competitive after 2025 (assuming they lose Bo).

I tend to agree, although not all three players may make the roster. As others have suggested, Horwitz could be a rough equivalent to Brandon Belt next year -- DH and occasional first baseman who provides good hitting ability with patience and some power from the left side. Perhaps he could be an occasional fill-in in LF as well.

Probably Horwitz will get some additional MLB exposure in September, which should help him acclimatize to the majors next year.

"Championship aspirations".

I think that is just PR. No team personnel will say that they don't have championship aspirations IMO.

Prospects will get their shot even on a good team IMO. Which means I can't explain O Lopez for 3 years. For C Jansen & Kirk can get injured so a 3rd C gets his chance. Either a minor league veteran or a prospect. Chapman probably leaves so a FA, trade, other or prospect gets a chance. I have doubts about a FA or trade to replace Chapman. Is our OF built for D over O? If so then O has to come from DH I think.

Smart playoff teams will supplement their core roster with cheap rookies. The further you get into your competitive "window", the more expensive your roster typically becomes - you can't just keep running to free agency and paying market rate to fill holes on your team.

Brandon Belt was a smart signing this past offseason that has worked out, but I'm 100% giving Horwitz that spot next season and seeing what he can do. You save nearly $10 mill that way, and there is a real chance that Horwitz is just as good as Belt is. I'm intrigued by what he can do, especially considering this recent string of hitting the ball harder. If he's growing into his power, then there are really zero holes in his profile.

Angel Del Rosario was signed as an IF but is playing the OF. He is a SB threat. I don't know his D or how strong his arm is.

Biggio has the same .852 OPS as Belt since May 23rd and should be the one to get the first shot at replacing him with more regular ABs next season. Especially if they implement some sort of automated ball/strike system.

Biggio has the same .852 OPS as Belt since May 23rd and should be the one to get the first shot at replacing him with more regular ABs next season.

That sounds "impressive", but you left out that he's had only ~100 plate appearances over that entire stretch. It seems pretty disingenuous to compare that to Belt (who plays every day) and suggest that it's a replacement. The idea of replacing a 1B/DH with Cavan Biggio is absurd to me. There is just no consistent impact to his bat. .224, .202, .208 - that's his batting averages the past three seasons. How is that your 1B/DH replacement? Maybe if he hit 40 HR's a year, but his power isn't there either.

I've said it before but the one thing the Blue Jays have really failed at for years now is drafting and developing decent outfielders. All of Barger, Horwitz, Orelvis, Schneider, Leo Jimenez are naturally infielders. Cam Eden might have potential as a good defensive 4th outfielder, but how good would the Jays be if they had a young guy that could play average to above average defense in a corner outfield position, hit 25-30 home runs and bat .270-.280 ?

Actually, Belt doesn't play every day either. 31 PA's vs LHP, 284 vs RHP.  Biggio 22 LHP, 165 RHP.

Belt 75 wRC+ vs LHP, Biggio 21 wRC+.

I should have added "as an internal option", because they definitely need to find another bat for next season (if not two).

The International League is hitting .263/.358/.443 this year for an .801 OPS. Just some added context for the stat lines of 24/25 year old guys having good seasons.

That's a good point, 92-93. Fangraphs has wRC+ numbers for the AAA prospects. They are, as you would guess, not as impressive as the raw slash lines.

The Statcast xwOBA for Merrifield and Espinal over the last 3 years have been essentially the same. Each has had years where they have outperformed and underperformed the xwOBA. The one thing you can say for sure this year is that Espinal's defensive performance and baserunning have been much poorer. The reasons for that are not known; he's a little young for that.

Yeah, that's why I included Horwitz's wRC+ stat this year (139). So he has created an impressive 39% more runs than an IL league average hitter would have in the same number of plate appearances.

138 IL batters with 250 PA's.  By wRC+, Schneider and Horwitz are 12th and 13th so barely in the top 10%.

Seems pretty nitpicky, especially when you consider that Horwitz's OPS was 1154 in July and 1398 in August. Those stats probably rank in the top 5% or so of the league for those months. The bottom line is that Horwitz has been raking for the last month and a half. Enjoy it!

In the last 30 days, of 127 qualified hitters in the IL, Horwitz ranks #2 with an OPS of 1332. Schneider is #7 with an OPS of 1158.

Horwitz is 3-4 with two doubles today.

Leo Jimenez is back in the lineup for NH in game two today.

As great as these recent hot streaks have been, I’m surprised this group is talking about potentially replacing Chapman, Merrifield, and Belt with three rookies next year.

I understand that it may be possible to replicate Belt’s production, however, is that really even good enough? This team needs way more HR power. A clean up hitter. Don’t get me wrong, I think Belt has had an excellent season, I just think we should be aiming higher than that for LF and DH next season. I am skeptical of Barger and Schneider replacing Chapman and Merrifield’s production. To me, that’s extremely likely to be a downgrade in both spots. I don’t think the offence can afford to lose that kind of certainty and production.

Unless the Jays go out and sign Ohtani, I will be very disappointed to see them replace three of their most consistent producers this year with internal options. I’m not against those guys bing on the roster, I just think the Jays need to add some proven impact talent to the roster, considering where they are in the window. Anything else is way too risky

The Jays may not have much choice, given what’s available in free agency.

Might a require a combination of relying on a prospect or two, trading for a MLB player, and signing someone in free agency.

Wasn't trying to be nitpicky, top 10% is excellent considering half the guys ahead of them are ages 26 to 30.


A couple of guys in the same range are in majors now.  23 yr old Mark Vientos (141 wRC+) with the Mets struggling - has a 54 wRC+ in 99 PA's. Then there's 24 yr old Edouard Julien, (137 wRC+) with the Twins -  has a 150 wRC+ in 236 PA's.

Basically in 2024 it is rookies or resign guys at inflated prices. There aren't many decent free agents out there this winter, so whoever is there will get big bucks (supply-demand laws apply). Chapman is easily the best hitter available outside of Ohtani.

So the way I see it is the Jays either mix in kids, blow the wad on Ohtani, blow the wad on Chapman/Belt hoping they hold up in their 30's, or ... well, there is no other option.

As a reminder - in 1992 (WS winner, pre-season favorite) the Jays put Jeff Kent as a 24 year old rookie (20th round pick) into the lineup nearly everyday for 2 months for June/July and part of August before he was traded for David Cone. Rookie Derek Bell (super hyped) played 15 games in May, 16 in August, and a dozen in September. Rookie Pat Hentgen had 50 innings in the pen that year. Not to mention 2nd year player Mike Timlin was on the mound for the final out of that WS. Oh yeah, and 2nd year guy Juan Guzman was great too.

In 1993 to repeat they put near rookie Ed Sprague in at 3B all year (just 50 PA in '92, over 100 in '91), rookie Randy Knorr was the backup catcher, Pat Hentgen became the ace in his first year as a starter in the majors (was to start game 7 if Carter hadn't hit that home run), Woody Williams as a rookie had 37 innings in relief.

1985, the year the Jays won 99 had a near rookie in Tony Fernandez at SS, Cecil Fielder was a force when given a shot as the RH half of a platoon at DH mid-season, Jimmy Key was in his first year as a starter, Tom Henke was a rookie when he saved the season (13-1 in Saves-Blown)

Basically, for us older Jay fans, don't tell us rookies or near rookies can't be a big part of a winner. We've seen it work. All vets all the time doesn't work as well as they wear down. You need youthful energy to get through a full season. Vlad & Bo were that but now we need new kids to come in. If they aren't ready then the Jays will be screwed. But what I'd do is go nuts on Ohtani (unlikely to get him, but the effort will impress players on the team regardless - get Vlad involved as Ohtani appeared to enjoy his silliness at the ASG). Then make a reasonable offer to Merrifield and Chapman to see if either comes back. If not, so be it. Plan on Schneider for the Merrifield role (LF/2B) and Horwitz at DH, with a gang of kids fighting for 3B. Your emergency case is Espinal/Biggio for 3B/2B but ideally you don't need to use them both in the lineup or the team is screwed. Belt you only resign if cheap and you don't have confidence in Horwitz and you don't sign Ohtani of course. If none of the free agents come back over $54 million is saved which I think is noteworthy. Merrifield shouldn't be over $10 mil per for 2 years (entering age 35 season), Chapman will be more like $20+ per for 5 imo (entering age 31 season). Belt should be cheap (under $10 for 1 again).

My ideal? Resign Merrifield, have Schneider and other kids fight for 3B, E/B at 2B with Merrifield mixed in. Horwitz at DH/1B like Belt is this year. Try for Ohtani up to $600 mil for 12 years (that'd be my absolute max). FYI: 18k people of Japanese ancestry live in Toronto, but with the growing population in BC it might help for TV money (critical for Rogers). I'll do a deep dive in the post season for fun on this.

Another thing to keep in mind is whether Rogers will be willing to be a tax team again next season, especially if 2023 results in either a quick playoff exit again or missing it entirely. Having inexpensive options at key positions, especially as the rest of the existing roster gets more expensive will be fairly important. If not in 2024, then soon after.

Here's my thinking. If the Jays wanted one of the kids to be the primary 3rd baseman next year, that kid would play 3rd as often as possible now. Last 8 games Orelvis 4 times,  Luis De Los Santos 3 times, Lantigua once.

Braden Barry and Jace Bofrofen, both 2023 draftees, were promoted to Dunedin today. To celebrate Barry singled in the first inning and Bohrofen homered to bring him home.

Michael Turconi was promoted to NH today.

A Blue Jay farmhand made BA's weekly Hot Sheet (20 hot prospects):

"20. Fernando Perez, RHP, Blue Jays
Team: FCL Blue Jays (Florida Complex)
Age: 19

Why He’s Here: 1-0, 0.00, 7 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 0 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR

The Scoop: On Monday Perez pitched seven hitless innings to combine with two other pitchers to record a nine-inning no-hitter for the FCL Blue Jays. Perez pitched seven of the nine innings, shutting down the FCL Phillies lineup, which featured 2023 first-round pick Aidan Miller. Perez struck out six, allowing only one player to reach base over his seven frames. Perez is a strike-thrower with a ton of upside. He mixes four-seam and two-seam variations of his fastball, which sits 92-94 mph and touches 96 mph at peak. He also uses a fringe slider and an average changeup. Everything plays up due to his plus control and ability to pound the zone. He’s a potential breakout name to follow in the Blue Jays system. (GP)"

John, I see the examples you provided as proving my point.

Even in the 93 situation, which is probably the most relevant comparison in terms of what we’re talking about, Hentgen had 27 appearances and 50IP in ‘92, and had a cup of coffee in ‘91. Sprague had 61 games and 183PA in ‘91, and 22 games and 50 PA in ‘92. Knorr had two cups of coffee in ‘91 and ‘92, and then appeared in 39 games and 112PA in ‘93.

So, Hengten and Sprague had way more experience than will be the case for Horwitz, Schneider and Barger. Sprague and Knorr were also on the playoff rosters in 92.

Again, I’m not against having them on the roster, but I think handing them starting roles out of the gate is a terrible idea, and will put the team in a challenging situation if there are growing pains. It sound a lot like the way the 2015 team started out (Pillar, Pompey, Collabello, Osuna, Castro). Now imagine how that would have turned out if the league had a trade deadline like this year’s.

In my view, it’s just accepting way too much downside risk in a prime contention window. The team needs to add high end players to replace any talent that walks.

The question becomes a mix - can you find internal options, and where is the money best spent - a 5 year deal for Chapman is asking for problems down the road ala Martin's deal from 2015. Now, could I see it working? Sure. But resigning Chapman won't be easy and will be expensive. Merrifield won't be. DH being open for Horwitz isn't bad as there are other options (rotating DH for example) should he flop. $20 mil is coming off the books as I don't see anyway the Jays resign Ryu. Schneider by the end of the year should be in a similar situation to Sprague going into 1993 - enough experience to lose rookie status but not a ton of it. With the other prospects pushing hard there are options. LF will depend on a lot of factors - do you resign KK? For how much?

I imagine giving full-time guaranteed work next year to many of the rookies is off the table, but this team is well-positioned for platoons if they'd give them more consideration. Horwitz is simply not good vs LHP, and with the way the roster is constructed, a LF/1B type who mashes lefties could work very nicely with what we have (as it would today).

I don't know if the Jays keep both Espinal and Biggio another year with the arb raises (Espi looking most at risk). I also don't see them guaranteeing 3B to an internal option. I could see them looking for another 1-year prove-it deal, or going after someone like Justin Turner who will only be like 52 or something this offseason (speaking of, can we bring back Julio Franco?), with the hopes that Barger or Orelvis push for the role by midseason.

Also, noting that we're at almost 40 comments on a daily minor league post. I think we'll call this the "metafour bounce". Batters Box engagement numbers are going up faster than Canadian house prices.

(whoops, forgot Turner doesn't really play 3B much anymore)

Can he play LF?

For 3B as a stopgap the Jays could do worse than ex-Ray Evan Longoria. 116 OPS+ this year in 178 PA (55 games). His defense doesn't appear to have collapsed, not gold glove level but still acceptable. His xwOBA is 355 so it isn't a dead cat bounce year either. Entering his age 38 season his demands won't be high I suspect. Not much else out there (Donaldson is a no bloody way guy now). So either Chapman, Longoria, a kid, or a trade. That's about it.

3B Jeimer Candelario, John. 136 OPS+, 3.5 bWAR

hypobole - looks good, oddly wasn't listed on a list of free agents I found, at least not at 3B which is odd given he played 98 games there this season so far. Appears to be a slight negative defensively at 3B but as a stopgap could do the job.

The good things with rookies is that you can platoon them, demote them and replace them with a veteran bat at the trade deadline. You can't do much with veteran players signed in free agency except hope that they play better.

Players don't get better with time. The age curve is cruel.

Jays aren't going to give 3 rookies starting spots on the team. Maybe, they'll give one position to a couple of guys but Jays should and will bring in proven guys either via free agency or trade (or likely both). My favoured method would be to trade relievers for hitters. Jays have a bunch under contract and plenty of teams are looking for cheap relievers.

Good to see M Turconi promoted. He plays 2B/SS and maybe 3B. Don't know how good his arm is.

It seems G Spain has a strong arm.

Maybe the Jays can move some of their amazing AAA prospects for the one year of control left of Pete Alonso. It would allow them to focus on D at 3B.

They could also try to go after Bellinger, and use him predominately in left.

Then you keep DeJong and Espinal, and give them a shot at the roster along with Barger and Schneider.

Remember hyped prospect Deivi Garcia whom the Yankees refused to part with a few years ago for quality MLB talent - White Sox claimed him on waivers today - I guess that's why you need so many especially pitching prospects because so many fail.

DeJong makes sense as a stopgap with Bo out, but I'd rather bet on Espinal next year. At the very least, the gap between them is pretty minimal - DeJong is down to an 80 wRC+ this year, and Espinal has a 71; but Espy has hit better over the preceding three years, is younger, and controllable if he takes a step forward.

And, as much sense as getting DeJong made, he's been so terrible at the plate in his first eight games it's unlikely he'll even be replacement level for us when all is said and done.

I'm not sure why the Jays would spend big in FA next year. Excluding paying Ohtani whatever he wants. Chapman, Belt, Merrifield, DeJong... I like them all, but by using rookies as replacements could this offense be any worse? Maybe with the exception of Merrifield, there aren't any clutch/veteran at bats this year anyway. Why not gamble on the kids? There is nothing in the FA market next year that will solve the core problem they have today.

Exactly, 2024 seems like the year to try out rookies.
QO to Chapman. I would also gamble on a QO to Merrifield.
Maybe we just overpay him for a year but that's fine.
He provides value and flexibility.

The rotation and pen are set.
April is totally random, like the Rays playing way over their actual talent this year.
Maybe a trade can be worked out by June once teams realize where they stand.

I have really like the Schneider ABs. Even in Cleveland.
He hasn't taken pitches in the middle of the zone like so many others.
The Guardians pitchers have made pitches on the corners to get him out.
He's got nothing to hit in the 2 games I have watched.

Agreed about Chapman and Merrifield QOs and the general notion that rookies (one or more of Orelvis, Barger, Horwitz, Schneider, Tiedemann) may get significant playing time next year.

I think the farm is in better shape than people realize.

I don't get the idea that the jays will significantly cut payroll next year.

I didn't realize until recently that Merrifield is only getting paid 2.75 million this year with 4 million in potential escalators if he stays healthy. He is the best bargain on this year's team.

Merrifield has a mutual option at 18MM, so he'd have to finish extremely well and decline that to receive the QO. It's very unlikely but it would be a great outcome if he could maintain his performance from the last month.

There are many FA bats that make sense for this team at the right price. The Jays will add at least two of them. Maybe they will finally land Brantley on a cheap deal. They will get a good look at Bellinger this weekend.

1yr 18m seems good for both sides.

And if he would rather try to get a longer deal, i doubt he'd get 18 per, and we'd be a good fit to give him that longer deal at less than 18m too.

The QO would give the Jays some leverage into negotiating a longer deal, instead of losing him for nothing.

Brantley had shoulder surgery in March and has not played this year.
He'll be 37 next year. How is that a good match?
That's the type of players teams like KC and Pittsburgh sign with hopes of a deadline flip.
Bautista fell off a cliff at 36 without the benefit of shoulder surgery.

Merrifield

1st 2yrs KC: 962pa, .326babip, .148iso, 100wrc+, 4.4war, 3.0war/650pa
2nd 2yrs KC: 1442pa, .351babip, .150iso, 115wrc+, 8.0war, 3.6war/650pa
Last 2.5yrs KC: 1405pa, .294babip, .124iso, 90wrc+, 5.2war, 2.4war/650pa
1.5yrs with TOR: 567pa, .337babip, .134iso, 115wrc+, 3.2war, 3.7war/650pa

Mutual options are never agreed upon.
I see 3  likely outcomes.
The Jays don't offer a QO and he looks for the best multi-year deal.
He accepts the QO.
He rejects the QO and the Jays compete to sign him to a multi-year deal with teams who don't mind losing a draft pick to sign him. If they lose, they get a compensation pick.

He's having a great year at 34. I don't think he'll want to try to repeat at 35.
It really depends on what his long term valuation is, but I don't think a QO would overpay him massively.
Also, does he have a preferred position? Does his family prefer to be somewhere else?
I have no idea.

Merrifield is a good fit if there's more than 210MM to spend. Otherwise you have to spend the 30MM or so of payroll room you have elsewhere. Bringing back this squad sans Chapman, Merrifield, Kiermaier, and Belt will cost around 180MM.

I think the payroll estimates are being inflated.

If we let all the free agents go, thats around $60m off the books.

Then there's about $13m in guaranteed raises, so that space comes down to around $47m.

There will be a bunch of arbitration raises but then again they could walk away from many of their more expensive arby guys like Cimber, Biggio, and Espinal.

Chapman will definitely be in for a hefty raise, but at ages 35 and 36 guys like Whit Belt and KK should come in close to the same number.

Cimber is a lock to not get an offer, Biggio and Espinal I figure they want to keep depending on how the FA market goes and how high they are on the kids. Belt will be looking for the same deal he got last winter I figure (nice bounceback from 2022, but entering his age 36 season as a DH/1B with a 126 OPS+ I'd think $9 mil for 1 year is the best he'll see). KK is tougher - a 108 OPS+ with fantastic defense for 100 or so games a year is easily worth $10 mil, but could he get a 2 year deal entering his age 34 season? Maybe.

I figure it all comes down to budget and who else the Jays want this winter. If they go all in on Ohtani then everyone else who is a free agent can walk, but since odds are low on that I think they'll resign KK, Belt, keep B & E, and try to resign Chapman at a reasonable price (4 at $20 would be reasonable, much more I'm not a fan of - I'm betting someone goes to 5@$25 per which is too big a risk imo but I could be talked into 5 @ $20 or 4 @ $25).

I would put the odds of Ohtani signing in Toronto at about 1-5%.

Your scenario assumes they get Green off the books, uglyone. If he shows enough in 2023 to turn down his 6.25MM option they may actually be paying him 10.5MM next year.