Jon Heyman: "Bichette is not expected out too long"

So giving up an A+ level 24 year old reliever makes sense then for a fill in 'just in case' Bo has recurring issues or needs to DH a lot more.

Verlander to Houston.

Nice bit here about DeJong's last day as a Cardinal - volunteering with the local community even though he knew he was probably being traded. Nice.

Latest on Verlander is 2 prospects for him. Sure Houston regrets not just paying him last winter now unless the Mets pay a big chunk of his salary of course.

Jays listed as front runners for Teoscar.

Houston's #1 prospect, Drew Gilbert (an OF) is going to the Mets. Plus one more prospect to be named it seems.

Ryan Clifford is the other minor leaguer - their #4 prospect. So the equivalent for the Jays (#1/4) would be Tiedemann & Orelvis Martinez. Yikes! Good news for the Jays and the AL West in 2025 and beyond, but bad news for 2023.

It may be that the club's best lineup against RHP right now would have Barger at third base and Chapman at SS.

Per Schneider, #BlueJays SS Bo Bichette had an MRI last night. Revealed no significant structural damage, just inflammation. DTD for now

— Mitch Bannon (@MitchBannon) August 1, 2023

Phew good news.

Apparently the Mets will pay up to $54 million of Verlander's salary if his 2025 option vests.

Interestingly, the Astros West rivals Rangers and Angels only have 3 games apiece left vs Houston.  Red Sox and Yankees both have 7.

That's great news on Bichette. At most it looks like an IL stint, not the season-ending ligament or meniscus tear that people were worried about.

Jays have another new Shortstop ... Arjun Nimmala playing today for FLC Blue Jays ... 1st at bat KOed; but he's still just 17 for the next two and a half months.

Hope there's no concussion symptoms from that 1st at bat. :(

oops ... I'm getting my sports' jargon mixed up !

People have said "don't trade with the Rays" . If the Joe Ryan for Nelson Cruz trade didn't put the kibosh on that, here's another one. Luis Patino was the headliner going back to the Rays in the Blake Snell trade. Rays just traded him to the White Sox. For cash.

Pham to Dbacks.

Flaherty to the Orioles

#BlueJays don't have any late moves coming in, source tells me & @ShiDavidi

— Ben Nicholson-Smith (@bnicholsonsmith) August 1, 2023

that's a bit disappointing, even though Hicks, Cabrera, and Dejong is a pretty decent deadline.

It would have been interesting to have Teoscar back, but I guess the org made the call on that in the winter. They made a long term investment in Varsho and they want to ride it out. This year is focused on pitching and defense and the deadline kept the theme.

How far my baseball interest has fallen - the Yankees just traded for a pitcher, Keynan Middleton, that I don't think I've ever heard of and he's a pending FA.

I know I'm in the minority here but I'm relieved with that deadline day outcome.

Kind of a subdued deadline across the entire league this year.

I'd like to see schneider given a shot now.

I agree, let’s see what the kid can do.

What a waste.

Interesting to see many one time hotshot prospects being virtually given away.

"I think we like some of our internal options more than some of the DFA options," Atkins says.

I tend to agree with Nigel. I was hoping for a RHB like Pham or Teoscar, but otherwise I don’t think this is the roster to be doubling down on, so if they hold on to what they have and live with the consequences then I think that’s a reasonable stance. The one thing I will say is that what I said above only applies if they call up Davis Schneider to be a bench player for the rest of the season. They need a RHB and while I believe he has reverse splits in the minors, he can still come up and play a few games a week. Rolling with a bench of Espinal, Biggio, and the journeyman of the week is simply not going to cut it.

Way to leave out the quotes where he says the bats people thought were available were not available.

Then he put the pressure on Vladdy and George to produce.

Bo has swelling of his patella tendon.

Maybe Rogers froze the budget at Cabrera / Hicks / DeJong.

Great trade deadline. I loved it!! Very interesting!!

I was thinking what Greenfrog said. Cash came back to the Jays in the De Jong trade, that was a sign for me.

Ryu does not look impressive (not that his stuff was ever overpowering).

On the radio they said its protocol for prospects in trades. Choose from list C for free. List B need to send us cash and list of players A are not available. If Hernandez or Bellinger were moved i'd think differently but who was the most significant bat traded today?

I would prefer to see Springer hitting after Chapman and maybe also Jansen.

Ryu wasn’t very good before his injury. Maybe he’s just not that good anymore…?

Groundhog Day.

The question might be - why isn't Jansen hitting near the top of the lineup?

Would have preferred a move but prefer no move to trading good prospects for tiny upgrades. Hope to see Schneider up soon.

Can someone please share the list of guys who will need to be protected in the fall/winter?

I was surprised by the lack of moves today, both with the Jays and outside. I was expecting something more significant

* ATL: + IF N.Lopez 0.6, RP B.Hand 0.4, RP P.Johnson 0.1
* BAL: + SP J.Flaherty 1.5, RP S.Fujinami -0.9, (- RP E.Bazardo -0.1)
* TBR: + SP A.Civale 2.4, SP A.Sampson 2.0, + C A.Jackson AAA,
* TEX: + SP J.Montgomery 2.4, SP M.Scherzer 1.2, RP C.Stratton 0.6, C A.Hedges 0.5, (- RP J.King 0.0)
* LAD: + RP Yarbrough 0.8, RP J.Kelly 0.1, IF A.Rosario 0.1, SP L.Lynn -0.4, UT K.Hernandez -1.4, (- OF T.Thompson 0.2, SP N.Syndergaard -0.3)
* HOU: + SP Verlander 1.9, RP K.Graveman 0.2
* TOR: + IF P.Dejong 1.5, RP J.Hicks 0.5, RP G.Cabrera 0.2, (- RP T.Thornton 0.1)
* CIN: + RP S.Moll 0.3,
* SFG: + OF A.Pollock -0.5, UT M.Mathias -0.4
* PHI: + SP M.Lorenzen 1.9, IF R.Castro -0.3,
* MIA: + UT J.Burger 1.4, RP D.Robertson 1.1, 1B C.Santana 1.0, RP J.Castillo -0.1, 1B J.Bell -0.3, SP Weathers -0.3, (- 1B G.Cooper -0.3, IF J.Segura -1.1)
* MIL: + PF M.Canha 0.6, RP A.Chafin 0.5,
* ARZ: + OF T.Pham 1.7, RP P.Sewald 1.0, IF J.Peterson 0.8, (- OF D.Canzone 0.0, 3B J.Rojas -0.1)
* BOS: + IF L.Urias -0.2, RP N.Robertson -0.2, (- UT K.Hernandez -1.4)
* LAA: + SP L.Giolito 1.8, OF R.Grichuk 0.9, RP R.Lopez 0.3, RP D.Leone -0.2, 1B C.Cron -0.3, (- RP T.Davidson -0.1)
* NYY: + RP K.Middleton 0.1, RP S.Howard -0.1,
* SEA: + RP E.Bazardo -0.1,
* MIN: + RP D.Floro 0.3, (- RP J.Lopez -0.5)
* CHC: + 3B J.Candelario 3.1, RP J.Cuas 0.1, (- OF N.Velazquez 0.1)


I think the Rays and the Rangers made the only legit impact moves of the deadline (unless you count the cubs as a team able to make an impact post deadline, which i don't).

I think the Jays did as much as anyone else did tho. We might also consider Ryu and Green as tantamount to deadline adds as well.

The Jays’ trade deadline was all about improving run prevention: Hicks, Cabrera, Ryu, Green, DeJong.

Guerrero hacking at the first pitch and failing to advance the runner at second in a 4-3 game was disappointing. The Jays don’t execute well.

What are our penalties for exceeding the luxury tax threshold?

I liked this trade deadline. I learned a lot.

1) NYM spent a lot of money. A losing team that gave the fans hope before the season started. Of course 2022 was a 101 win team. Yet the word is "unbelievable".

2) Texas is spending $ like crazy starting with Semien & deGrom. They have a V strong farm so their future is interesting. I was not sure they would succeed.

3) 1st time contenders Miami, Arizona, Baltimore and Cincinnati I expected to improve through trades so as to capitalize on their unexpected success. I thought Cincinnati would do more.

4) NYY did nothing which surprised me. SD & Seattle did not bother to improve which also surprised me because their GMs "always" trade.

5) I can't figure out the Jays. IMO they want to win 90+ games every year. They spent a lot of money to do that right after the 2019 season. Springer and part of their rotation make $20mil/yr. This due to a slow farm and fast rebuild. The confusing part is trading the offense of Teo & Gurriel for the D of KK & Vasho. Actually I understood that because I believed that the OF dimensions needed 3 CFs but I no longer know if that is true.

An elegant selection of topics:

1. Steven A. Cohen is a maniac. Mets fans are happy with the departure of the Wilpons. All this madness does not help to attract premium free-agents.

2. Texas Rangers could be the wild-card in the Shohei Ohtani sweep-stakes. A contract the size of the State of Texas, Cowboy reckons.

3. L-C cheers for the Reds, too. The left-handed reliever from the Oakland Athletics adds to the bullpen. Diamondbacks are interesting players in the N.L. west division.

4. Yankees are worse than the Mets! San Diego is one more intriguing destination for Shohei Ohtani.

5. 93 wins is a good target, but the club needs another winning streak to make that happen.

What a horrible deadline for the Jays. It's hard to see how this team could be better next year without a massive payroll increase.

Y'know, the Jays might have by stealth got the bat they wanted.

A 129 wRC+ vs LHP sounds nice vs a 72 (Espinal) or a 109 (KK) or a 105 (Varsho) or a 107 (Merrifield). Well, that is what was traded for - DeJong has that 129 this year vs LHP. Of course, lifetime he is at just 89 but generally it seems we are focused on what guys have done lately.

So once Bo is 100% we could have DeJong at 2B and Merrifield in LF vs LHP and see an upgrade on offense and defense vs Merrifield/Espinal like we see now. Kind of surprised when I looked it up and saw Varsho actually has hit LHP well this year (in part due to those sweet bunt hits).

Now lets see guys who actually were traded but the Jays didn't get (how they did so far vs LHP in 2023): Grichuk 168 wRC+ (I know I don't trust it is real, do any of you?), CJ Cron 94 wRC+ (ugh), Tommy Pham 135 wRC+ - he'd have been nice. But his 2023 #'s not that much better than DeJong's, while his lifetime is a lot better (132). Pham cost Arizona Jeremy Rodriguez, a 16 year old SS playing in the DSL with a 751 OPS (signed this year for $1 mil) with the Mets paying part of Pham's $6 mil contract for this year. Have to think the Jays could've beat that unless the Mets were VERY high on Jeremy Rodriguez (possible).

"What a horrible deadline for the Jays. It's hard to see how this team could be better next year without a massive payroll increase."

1) the deadline has little to nothing to do with next year
2) the Jays would have had to move some MLB players to make the big upgrades you are apparently looking for. That kind of trade did not happen this year, and likely would not have had a significant impact.
3) this team is not one you spend a lot of resources for. It just doesnt have "IT", whatever that is that just gets teams on a roll.

You know who had a horrible deadline? The Tigers. They had arguably the best starting pitcher to trade and somehow managed to not trade him.

1) It has everything to do with next year when there's a good chance this was their best shot with this core. '24 Payroll is already around 180MM with gaping holes at 3B, LF, and DH. Deadlines are always tied to the next season - just look at the Mets.

2) We have no way of knowing what the cost of improvement would have been, but suffice it to say there were plenty of trades out there for just prospects. And there's no rule against moving Manoah, Kirk, Varsho, Pearson, etc.

3) This team went into the series with BAL with a better pythag record despite a tougher schedule, and they are already spending a lot on it.

2023 luxury tax (CBT) threshold is $233 M.

1st year 20 %
2nd year 30 %
3+ years 50 %

one source for Toronto lists a grand total of $214,720,824.

#1 for 2024 is better luck. I say it in jest, but it is true - Vlad has more hard hit balls than anyone in MLB but you'd never know it by his OPS. Manoah going from near Cy to A ball is nuts. Kirk from slugger who catches to a catcher who tries to hit was very weird. Before tonight the Jays were 1 game over their Pyth record, Baltimore 7 games over theirs. Right there is most of the spread between them.

As to LF/3B there are in house solutions - we already know Varsho to CF is happening unless KK resigns cheaply. Merrifield resigning isn't impossible by any stretch, I don't see Chapman returning (he'll get a silly offer from someone). But 92/93 saw LF/3B both change - 3B from vet Gruber to rookie Sprague, LF from Candy Maldonado (125 OPS+) to a dogs breakfast until Rickey Henderson was traded for (he got 44 games in with a horrid 83 OPS+). Yet that team won it all. They also lost their closer, and downgraded the starting staff via free agency Key for Stewart, but only dropped by 1 game in the regular season.

In house - Orelvis Martinez AAA/AA (223/334/470 overall, 694 OPS in his first 11 AAA games), Addison Barger (AAA 232/350/369), Tanner Morris (AAA 281/371/411), Rafael Lantigua (AAA 288/416/466), Davis Schneider (AAA 279/421/561), and Leo Jimenez (AA 286/370/448). All 25 or less this year, all look potentially as 3B replacements in 2024, all have significant time at SS or 2B this year suggesting they aren't flops on defense. All are options in LF if needed as well. Also in LF you have Spencer Horwitz as an option (AAA 315/434/454) but he mostly is 1B/DH (20 games in LF this year).

This winter over $50 million comes off the books (Belt, KK, Chapman, Ryu, Merrifield, Cimber, DeJong [almost entirely being paid by StL] all free agents). Growth in payroll from Gausman ($3 mil), Bassitt ($3 mil), Berrios ($2 mil), Garcia ($500k), Bo ($8 mil), Green (TBD). Plus arbitration for Vlad, Romano, Jansen, Varsho, Biggio, Espinal, Mayza, Richards, Swanson, Cabrera, Kirk, Manoah (maybe), Pearson (maybe). Depending how the team does in the playoffs (assuming they make it) and how Rogers feels it'll be interesting to see if they go hard into free agency or not. Ohtani the obvious #1 this winter, do the Jays chase after ex-Jays Teoscar/Gurriel? Really not much on the bat side out there it seems this winter. I could easily see them holding onto Merrifield if possible, but otherwise it'll be up to the kids to provide new offense in 2024 (unless the impossible happens and Ohtani comes of course).

Cot's, generally a very good source, has the Jays CBT at $258,719,498 right now ($25.7 over) - just barely into the 2nd tier ($253 mil) Projected tax bill is $5,830,239. That puts the Jays #6 in payroll this year (by CBT methods). Rogers wasn't cheap this time. But how much more are they willing to go? Will they insist on being short of it next year (so all savings go to reducing payroll, requiring kids to take over 3B and LF) or will they be open to free agents? We will see.

Oh a couple more coming off - Bass ($3 mil), Grichuk ($4.3 mil), Luplow ($1.4 mil). Net of $8.7 mil there from those 3 dead weights, putting savings close to $60 mil. For payroll tax purposes though the increases I listed for Gausman/Bassitt/etc. don't matter as the average value is used not the individual seasons. So net savings is $63,323,118 via free agents and contracts coming off the books (not factoring in DeJong or Cabrera's partially paid 2023 contracts by other teams or their contracts coming off the books for 2024). It'll be interesting to see how the Jays handle it all. Vlad, Romano, Jansen all should be looking at big increases, with significant ones for the other guys. $10-20 mil will be gone to cover them I suspect given how arbitration works. So if you figure the Jays want to get below $237 (bottom luxury tax in 2024) they can only spend roughly $20 mil this winter, $40 if they just want to stay under the 2nd tax level ($257 in 2024). It'll be interesting to see what they do.

the curious difference in the total is $43.999 M. (the smaller amount came from a quick search.)

LC - the smaller figure is the raw payroll - for payroll tax they take average annual value instead (for Bo that shifts it from $3.9 mil this year to $11.2 for example, so he is less of a hit in the next couple of years than he'd be otherwise, but a bigger hit this year for payroll tax purposes). Plus the tax one includes stuff like 0-3 year bonus pool, 40-man players in minors, Estimated Player Benefits which adds up to $20.4 mil. Others who have more than a $1 mil spread are Gausman, Springer, Bassitt, Berrios, Kikuchi, and Green. Basically it lets the Jays spend less some years in raw dollars, more other years, but the tax hit is the same all of those years. I'm sure there are advantages for Rogers in doing it this way.

Thank you, John. By the way, you did correctly predict both the 6-man rotation and the DeJong acquisition. Well done.

You pay the penalty for being over the luxury tax. Then you must look at the teams playing record and try to predict revenue. At seasons end your accounting people will reveal your financial results. How far the team advances in the playoffs also affect revenue. So back to the accounting department for analysis.

Your team is good/bad based on the personnel and their performance on the field each year.

For predictions assuming good health 1) Vlad could be a "little" better/worse. 2) Manoah will show his results for the rest of this season which will affect his prediction for 2024. 3) Players will leave Chapman/Belt and be replaced. Will they be better or worse? Ray Cy Young 2021 but no Cy Young in 2022/23 for example. Matz?

We have not had a ROY contender in recent years because they don't make the Opening Day roster IMO. Anytime we get a player like this the cost is affected.

I would guess Biggio and Espinal will be non-tendered next year. As John mentioned with the internal infield options there is no reason to pay them.

I've always been a fan of Cavan Biggio but I acknowledge it may be time to cut him loose. Espinal has been a disappointment to me this season. I thought he was really coming on last year, but this year even his defense is slipping which was his strength.

Kikuchi and Berrios have really turned it around this season. Hopefully Manoah can similarly figure out what he needs to do to regain his 2022 form.

I don't see the point of cutting Biggio loose. He's a solid bench player.

Espinal was a nice surprise when he came up after never really being a prospect but it looks like the league figured him out after one time through.

That being said, Espinal can field SS well so even at his current awful level of hitting he's a servicable bench guy.

Since May 23rd:

Biggio 105PA 18R 5HR 15RBI .272/.362/.478
Belt 170PA 20R 7HR 17RBI .243/.365/.464

And that's without being afforded a real opportunity to get going. It would be a mistake to let him go over approximately 3.5MM.

I didn't realize that Biggio was doing as well as he is and I watch most games. I never would have guessed that his numbers were better than Belt's the past two months.

The problem is that Schneider hasn't realized it either. We have enough data to know that there are a few RH pitchers with enough velocity that Biggio isn't a great choice to face. But outside of that, Biggio should be in the line-up against most RH starters.

I'll add that a player's performance in the initial month of the season often seems to leave an inaccurate impression of seasonal performance. As I said on the other thread, gone uncommented on is that Chapman has been an out making machine since the calendar turned to May.

No doubt, Nigel. When Merrifield was acquired last summer I was saying he should be the starting 2B, but some people just couldn't see past Espinal's hot start.

Chapman is back to being good again over the last 6 weeks or so. It's a long season.

that's why i like to look at "Past 1 Calendar Year" stats instead of Current Season stats - it eliminates any undue small sample size influence from hot or cold starts to a season, and makes sure i'm always looking at a similar size sample at all times.

past 1 calendar year:

* Bichette 722pa, 148wrc+
* Jansen 391pa, 124wrc+
* Guerrero 734pa, 116wrc+
* Chapman 690pa, 115wrc+
* Merrifield 534pa, 115wrc+
* Springer 658pa, 110wrc+
* Belt 351pa, 109wrc+
* Kiermaier 291pa, 107wrc+
* Varsho 626pa, 86wrc+

* Kirk 471pa, 96wrc+
* Biggio 293pa, 86wrc+
* Dejong 452pa, 84wrc+
* Espinal 281pa, 81wrc+

They could keep rolling out Biggio and Espinal, we all know what they are by now...or save a few million and get at least replacement level with maybe some upside from some internal options.

Espinal is fun to cheer on, but it is time for the Jays to move on from him imo. He is who he is - a low bat, good fielding infielder who should only be a backup, not an everyday player. His ASG will be looked at as an oddity in his career, not a normal thing. His 2021 and 2022 were him playing way above his talent level, basically everything going right that could go right for 2 years and even then he just had a 105 OPS+ which is solid if he is a gold glover but his defensive stats say he is just solid, not 'wow'.

I like the idea of seeing if Schneider can be a backup at least (reports are that he will be called up tomorrow officially). I suspect Clement is going back down and might even be removed from the 40 man despite hitting well when given a chance. For whatever reason Schneider doesn't trust him one iota (he went 1-1 with a double his only chance since July 9th when he got a walk) - gotta wonder if he insulted the managers wife, ran over his dog, or something given his performance when given a chance to play vs Espinal who has dropped to a 599 OPS now and not counting today has 'hit' 225/244/325 since July 1st over 41 PA. Clement has just 2 PA in that same time frame, but has as many walks (1).

Espinal has 2 options left, I'd use one now and send him down first as 'Vlad friend' shouldn't be enough to keep you on the roster.