It's so relieving
To know that you're leaving
As soon as you get paid
Everyone ready to stay up late?
The Mariners won 90 games a year ago, and got to play post-season baseball. As you may recall. It's going to difficult for them to do either of those things this season. They've taken a step backward on both sides of the ball, and I would expect they're most surprised by the fact that they have a below average offense. Especially if they had known that Jarred Kelenic, who we've been hearing about for years, would finally establish himself as a major league player. Which he certainly has. It's a little surprising is that Kelenic has been better than our old chum Teoscar Hernandez; it's positively shocking that he's been better than the handsome young Face of the Franchise, last year's Rookie of the Year, Julio Rodriguez. Three other players who were quite good in 2022 have backslid considerably this season - catcher Cal Raleigh and corner infielders Ty France and Eugenio Suarez.
Kelenic and shortstop J.P. Crawford are really the only bits of good news. Or at least they were - Kelenic broke his foot the other day kicking a cooler in the dugout.
This is why you need to be on an even keel, kids. Don't get too worked up about it all. Not too high when you succeed, not too low when you don't. Especially when you don't.
Run prevention hasn't been as good last season either, and this was the 2022 team's real strength (fourth best in the AL.) And this is despite having the services of Luis Castillo all season. Castillo has been just fine, as have Logan Gilbert and George Kirby - it's the other two rotation spots that have caused problems. Robbie Ray was lost for the season after making just one start, Marco Gonzales is out with a flexor strain, and Chris Flexen was so awful they had to DFA him. Bryce Miller may be the solution to one of those problems, we'll see about Bryan Woo.
And of course they traded away the man who was their best relief pitcher a year ago, in exchange for an outfielder one year away from free agency. Very much a win-this-year type of move.
So things could be going better for the only major league team that has never been in a World Series.
The Story So Far
Fri 28 April: Seattle 2 Toronto 3 - Luis Castillo and Alek Manoah locked up in a tight game - Seattle scored a single run in the second and third innings, and the Blue Jays answered with one of their own in the bottom half both times. The game was turned over to the bullpens, and the Jays managed one more run on Springer's two out single. Four Jays relievers - Mayza, Garcia, Swanson, Romano - each retired all three men they faced, each striking out two.
Sat 29 April: Seattle 0 Toronto 1 - Kevin Gausman was awesome, scattering six singles over seven shutout innings while striking out 13. Easton McGee, making his first major league start, was even better for the Mariners. McGee took a one-hitter into the seventh before turning the scoreless game over to the bullpen.. This one went to extras - former Mariner Erik Swanson stranded the Zombie Runner by striking out Wong, Murphy, and Pollock. In the Toronto half, Guerrero singled the Zombie Runner to third, Chapman was intentionally walked, and Varsho's single plated the winner. As for young McGee, he went on the IL after this start with a "strained forerarm" - he would end up having Tommy John surgery in late May.
Sun 30 April: Seattle 10 Toronto 8 - This was a wild one. With two out in the top of the first, Bassitt walked Kelenic and Raleigh and hit Hernandez with a pitch, each time on a full count. Trammell then cashed everyone with a grand slam. The Jays got two of those runs back in their half as Chapman doubled in Bichette and Guerrero, and they took the lead an inning later on Bichette's three run homer. They stretched the lead to 8-4, and turned the game over to the bullpen. A solo homer by Hernandez off Richards made it 8-5 in the sixth; in the seventh, Kelenic reached on an Espinal error and scored on Raleigh's homer off Bass. They tied it in the ninth against Garcia on a walk, a groundout, and Crawford's RBI single. On to extras once again, and Raleigh's second homer of the day, this one off Pop, cashed the Zombie Runner and gave us our final score.
We've all done bit of complaining about how the Blue Jays have been hitting, or not hitting, with runners in scoring position, in clutch situations - and why wouldn't we. It's a frustrating thing. But I am here to help. Because if we're going to complain - and we are going to complain - surely we should focus our unhappiness in the proper direction. There are Blue Jays who are not delivering the goods. We need to know who they are.
You know there are Data Tables coming! How has this year's group done with Runners In Scoring Position?
Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Bichette RISP 63 85 82 32 27 3 1 4 37 0 1 3 13 1 .329 .353 .537 .890
Guerrero RISP 70 106 91 30 28 5 0 3 44 2 1 7 20 2 .308 .368 .462 .829
Merrifield RISP 65 101 91 32 27 8 0 3 38 12 4 7 17 3 .297 .337 .484 .820
Jansen RISP 38 60 57 17 15 5 0 3 26 0 0 3 13 3 .263 .300 .509 .809
Biggio RISP 30 44 40 17 8 2 0 3 14 1 0 4 16 0 .200 .273 .475 .748
Chapman RISP 72 115 97 40 22 5 0 2 26 1 1 15 33 2 .227 .330 .340 .671
Kirk RISP 48 69 60 12 14 2 0 1 20 0 0 8 12 1 .233 .319 .317 .636
Springer RISP 67 94 81 36 20 0 0 1 24 5 0 11 11 6 .247 .340 .284 .624
Kiermaier RISP 45 65 55 31 10 2 2 1 17 6 0 6 16 3 .182 .266 .346 .611
Varsho RISP 70 104 88 23 15 3 0 2 19 7 0 10 29 1 .171 .269 .273 .542
Espinal RISP 32 42 37 15 7 1 0 0 10 1 0 3 7 3 .189 .268 .216 .485
Belt RISP 45 62 54 18 9 2 0 0 12 0 0 7 31 1 .167 .258 .204 .462
OK, Guerrero, Bichette, and Merrifield have been just fine. Danny Jansen, too. Pretty much everyone else fits on a spectrum ranging from mediocre to downright terrible.
Well, how about with Runners in Scoring Position and two outs? Those moments when making an out is never a viable option.
Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Guerrero 2 outs, RISP 35 37 34 13 14 4 0 2 23 1 1 2 6 0 .412 .460 .706 1.165
Bichette 2 outs, RISP 34 37 35 17 12 2 0 4 19 0 0 2 4 0 .343 .378 .743 1.121
Jansen 2 outs, RISP 19 23 22 9 7 2 0 1 9 0 0 1 3 0 .318 .348 .546 .893
Merrifield 2 outs, RISP 39 46 40 13 11 4 0 1 15 5 0 6 8 0 .275 .370 .450 .820
Kiermaier 2 outs, RISP 23 31 26 12 5 0 1 1 9 1 0 4 8 0 .192 .323 .385 .707
Biggio 2 outs, RISP 22 27 25 7 4 1 0 2 8 1 0 2 12 0 .160 .222 .440 .662
Chapman 2 outs, RISP 38 45 37 18 7 1 0 1 7 0 1 7 13 0 .189 .333 .297 .631
Belt 2 outs, RISP 25 32 28 9 6 2 0 0 7 0 0 4 14 0 .214 .313 .286 .598
Springer 2 outs, RISP 31 41 35 12 6 0 0 1 7 1 0 6 4 0 .171 .293 .257 .550
Kirk 2 outs, RISP 30 34 32 5 7 2 0 0 7 0 0 2 6 0 .219 .265 .281 .546
Varsho 2 outs, RISP 44 52 44 6 6 2 0 1 7 5 0 7 14 0 .136 .269 .250 .519
Espinal 2 outs, RISP 16 21 19 8 3 1 0 0 5 1 0 1 3 0 .158 .238 .211 .449
I don't know if one could describe the work of Guerrero and Bichette in this situation as "elite." Semantics is not my department today. I will confidently describe their work in these situations as freaking awesome and note that Danny Jansen has also raised his game considerably. (Incidentally, for a split second there, I was genuinely impressed that no one had hit into a
double play in that situation. Only for a split second, and luckily I
didn't mention it or speak it aloud.)
Fine, fine. How about Late & Close in general (defined as 7th inning or later, with the batting team either tied, ahead by one or has the the tying run at least on deck)
Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO GDP BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Guerrero Late & Close 55 67 61 10 21 6 0 3 13 0 1 2 9 0 .344 .358 .590 .948
Belt Late & Close 30 34 31 1 10 4 0 1 4 0 0 3 11 2 .323 .382 .548 .931
Bichette Late & Close 56 69 67 7 19 2 0 3 10 1 1 1 16 0 .284 .304 .448 .752
Jansen Late & Close 29 41 38 4 8 1 0 3 12 0 0 2 6 0 .211 .268 .474 .742
Springer Late & Close 48 63 55 7 15 2 0 0 7 2 1 7 15 2 .273 .365 .309 .674
Chapman Late & Close 45 55 47 8 10 4 0 1 7 0 1 6 18 1 .213 .309 .362 .671
Merrifield Late & Close 43 58 51 7 14 2 0 0 5 2 0 6 9 0 .275 .345 .314 .659
Kkiermaier Late & Close 37 46 38 10 9 2 0 0 1 5 0 7 10 1 .237 .356 .290 .645
Espinal Late & Close 21 25 24 4 6 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 5 1 .250 .280 .292 .572
Varsho Late & Close 39 49 44 4 8 2 0 1 3 3 0 4 13 0 .182 .265 .296 .561
Biggio Late & Close 22 26 22 8 2 1 0 1 4 0 2 4 9 0 .091 .231 .273 .504
Kirk Late & Close 37 45 41 4 6 0 0 0 3 0 0 3 8 0 .146 .200 .146 .346
Much the same pattern as the other situation splits - Guerrero has been really good, and Jansen raises his game as well. Brandon Belt, who's been pretty awful with Runners in Scoring Position perks up smartly when it's Late and Close. Belt hasn't been much good at finishing the trouble but he's been pretty good at getting it started. He's only scored one run for his efforts, but that's because someone - usually Biggio - runs for him after he gets on base late in a game. (And that's how Biggio has scored eight times in this split, despite almost never getting on base himself.)
I hope this helps you direct your disapproval appropriately.
The Blue Jays are off to Los Angeles after this, where the Dodgers await, and of the 29 other teams in the majors, none of them have been harder for the Jays to defeat than the Dodgers. It would be prudent to get something done this weekend.
Matchups
Fri 21 July - Kikuchi (7-3, 4.13) vs Miller (6-3, 3.66)
Sat 22 July - Gausman (7-5, 3.03) vs Gilbert (8-5, 3.65)
Sun 23 July - Manoah (2-8, 6.18) vs Woo (1-2, 4.74)
