Batter's Box Interactive Magazine - San Diego at Toronto, July 18-20

If the Mets did not exist, the Padres would surely be regarded as the most disappointing group of under-achievers in all of the game.

They went 89-73 a year ago and made it as far the NLCS, knocking off the mighty Dodgers along the way. In 2023 they would have a full season of Juan Soto. Fernando Tatis would return to the lineup, having missed the entire 2022 season. They signed free agent Xander Bogaerts to take over at shortstop. They were expected to seize control of the NL West.

It hasn't happened. The Padres are 44-50, and stand 10 games off the division lead, and 8 games out of the Wild Card. But they haven't been bad - it's more that they've been very, very unlucky - they've played 21 one-run games and have won just 5 of them. The quality of their play suggests their overall record should probably be closer to 50-44. Which would probably have been a huge disappointment after what was expected, but they would gladly take it at this point.

The strength of this team is preventing the other fellows from scoring. Only one team in the NL gives up fewer runs. This is what you would expect from any team that plays half its games in Petco Park, but the Padres have indeed received strong pitching this season. All of a sudden Yu Darvish is 36 years old and not quite the ace he was in years past - but no matter. The Padres have four other starters having better seasons than Darvish anyway, led by former Cy Young winner Blake Snell. Closer Josh Hader, who struggled so badly after coming over from Milwaukee last July, appears to have completely regained his mojo.

The offense is about league average - it has a couple of unsightly holes at positions one normally expects to provide production: first base, where Jake Cronenworth has moved over from second base, and DH, where Matt Carpenter and Nelson Cruz have both looked thoroughly past their Best-By date. Cruz has already been DFA'd, and that day may be coming soon for Carpenter as well. Fernando Tatis has settled in as a right fielder and picked up where he left off with the bat. But Xander Bogaerts has merely been adequate. He obviously wasn't going to be the same hitter in Petco that he was in Fenway. And he hasn't been. Perhaps more concerning is that Juan Soto does not hit very well in Petco Park at all - his career numbers are .222/.372/.389 - and he might be counting the days until he can hit somewhere else. His enormous walk totals have become the most impressive part of his game. And Manny Machado has just turned 31 and is having his worst season in ten years. It's been pretty decent by anyone else's standards, just not his.

The Blue Jays haven't played those NL West teams very often. They've played fewer games against the Padres - just 15 - than any team in the majors. The Jays are 8-7 against San Diego, who were last in Toronto back in 2019. That was the last time the teams met- the Padres took the first two of three from the Jays on that occasion, mainly by hitting an absurd number of homers (10 in those first two games) before the Jays salvaged the finale behind Marcus Stroman.

As you've probably heard, the Jays have decided to give Kevin Gausman a few more days off. And John Schneider is looking for his 100th win as the Blue Jays manager, which will tie him with Buck Martinez. Before July is over, he should overtake Bobby Mattick. The real action comes next year, when he should zoom past John Farrell, Roy Hartsfield, Jim Fregosi, Carlos Tosca, and - hopefully - Charlie Montoyo.

Matchups

Tue 18 July - Musgrove (8-2, 3.29) vs Manoah (2-7, 5.91)
Wed 19 July - Darvish (6-6, 4.65) vs Berrios (8-6, 3.41)
Thu 20 July - Snell (6-7, 2.61) vs Bassitt (9-5, 4.12)

Posted by Magpie on Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:57 AM EDT.

San Diego at Toronto, July 18-20 | 195 comments | Create New Account

The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.

Glevin - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#431925) #

Padres are a fun team but show the danger of trying to build a team in a patchwork and splashy way.he Bogaerts signing was awful. Not because he's a bad player but because they already had an elite SS and a good backup SS and paying a premium for another SS made no sense. if you want Tatis in OF, put Kim at SS, keep Cornenworth at 2B and sign a 1Bman or just sign an OFer. Both would be much cheaper. They're definitely a better team signing a couple of guys like Bellinger, Carlos Santana, or Belt than they would be signing Bogaerts. Cronenworth is valuable as a 2Bman. As a 1Bman, he's bad. Baffling to me that they didn't address catcher in the off-season. Nola is bad and Campusano is a work in progress. Sometimes, unforeseen issues come up but with the Padres I think the issues were obvious and the need to make splashy moves rather than smart ones I think has hurt them tremendously.

hypobole - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#431929) #

Wednesday's game may be fun. Jays batters get to face a knuckleballer for the 1st time since??? Boston had one a few years back.

hypobole - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#431930) #

Get your kids to help with the chores and have fun at the same time!. It's a Mop! It's a Toy!
it's Charlie Mopntoyo!!!

ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#431931) #

Hopefully the Jays won't continue their yo-yo season and get swept by the Padres.

Chuck - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 11:43 AM EDT (#431932) #

I think the issues were obvious and the need to make splashy moves rather than smart ones I think has hurt them tremendously.

Agreed. To needlessly accommodate Boegarts they went out of their to lower the values of existing players by moving them off positions at which they were very fine defenders. Intentionally not playing Kim at SS and Cronenworth at 2B is ridiculous. I get that Tatis needed a position (given Kim at SS) and by all accounts he appears to be gold glove worthy in RF, so good job there at least.

This past off-season, the Padres and Mets behaved in ways very reminiscent of the early days of free agency in the 1970s. The fear was that championships would simply be bought by the likes of Steinbrenner, Autry and Kroc, but that proved more difficult than it looked. I do not begrudge the players getting all the money they can, but I do laugh at the drunken sailor strategy exhibited by Cohen and Seidler, reminding us how often history repeats. Correa signing in NY would have been the cherry on top.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#431933) #

Jays batters get to face a knuckleballer for the 1st time since???

'Fraid not. The Padres have called an audible, decided to take advantage of the Monday off-day, skip the fifth starter, and move Darvish and Snell up.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#431935) #

it's Charlie Mopntoyo!!!

One of my better typos, if I do say so myself. (Naturally, I have corrected it, like some humourless spoilsport.)

hypobole - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#431937) #

Sorry, Magpie, had to pay it forward after my "not bothering to preview" Nimmala face-plant yesterday.
Yours was a far better typo than mine. I even had the SNL Dan Aykroyd voice in my head as I was typing.

Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#431938) #

The Padres famous closer Trevor Hoffman's wife is a former Buffalo Jill.

A humourless spoilsport! Say, is that a joke or just a musing?

Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#431947) #

L-C attended the Padres game at Petco Park on the day that the San Diego Chargers player Junior Seau tragically died. So sad.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#431948) #

San Diego with a bunch of roster moves. Rough Ned Odor has been DFA'd. They've optioned Austin Nola - who is 33 years old, and has been their #1 catcher for the last three seasons - to AAA, along with first-baseman outfielder Brandon Dixon. Catcher Luis Campusno comes off the IL, and they've promoted Taylor Kohlwey and infielder Alfonso Rivas.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#431949) #

But enough of that. Has everyone seen, and marvelled at, the double Max Kepler hit against Seattle yesterday? I've watched it half a dozen times and you should too!

Petey Baseball - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#431950) #

Despite Chuck's very good point about the Padres hurting value by playing guys out of position, you still look at this series and hope they don't start finding a groove, especially the starting nine. I'm far more concerned about this series than I was for Arizona.
The ability is there for San Diego to kick it in gear and beat the Jays handily, even if the Jays starters keep on dealing like they have lately. As has been well documented on the various sports radio yackety yack shows this week (and in print), the Padres could break out of their wheel spinning at any time and start hammering teams. Let's hope that's delayed.

It's a really interesting series coming up, I'm looking forward to it, but with quite a bit of trepidation looking at the names on the lineup card.

Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#431951) #

yahoo sports: " Fans criticize Mariners for selling Blue Jays gear in official team store. "

hypobole - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#431952) #

Fan favourite Rougned Odor will not be playing this series, the Padres DFA'd him today. Guess the Jays store will be stuck with their supply of Odor jerseys

scottt - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#431953) #

A few things catch my eyes. They have a winning record at home, hence they've been really bad on the road.
Overall, they have many good players and put respectable numbers but the pen is weird. Not a lot of strikeout and a ton of HRs. Not a good combo.

Directionwise, they still have a few "value years" on Machado's contract who makes 17M but in the tail end of that contract he'll be making 39M for 3 years when he'll probably be the DH. They have 4 players with "player options" at the end of this year. I guess the pitchers will mostly pass on but Matt Carpenter will probably exercise his.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#431954) #

I don't think defensive positional value works like people are suggesting here.

hypobole - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#431955) #

As I posted Sunday, Padres biggest problem is folding in the clutch. Only 2 Padres are over 100 wRC+ in high leverage. Kim 141, and Tatis 105. Amusingly Odor was best at 177.

Jays wRC+ in high leverage - Jansen 202, Vlad 189, Bo 140, KK 132, Whit 122, Springer 117. Biggio at 82 has been better than Soto and all the other big names. The other DFA'd Padre, Nelson Cruz, hit 083/083/083 in his 12 high leverage PA's.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#431956) #

Gausman, Berrios and Bassitt are locks in the rotation. So who gets bumped from the rotation if Ryu continues to pitch well? If Manoah starts struggling again, could he be on the bubble?

The next couple of weeks are going to be interesting. I think Atkins and Shapiro know they're lucky to have a relatively healthy team this year and that they should try hard to significantly improve the roster at the deadline (that is, make a run at a championship). It takes two to tango, of course. And they will also want to preserve some prospect capital for the next couple of years.

hypobole - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#431957) #

Who are the trade chips other teams would give up significant talent to acquire?

92-93 - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#431958) #

The Padres pythag is 51-43, only one game worse than the Jays. This is going to be a very tough series now that they will face Snell.

It's a good thing Mayza is very fresh, because Soto is significantly better vs. RHP. They might need Mayza in all 3 games.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#431959) #

Last summer the Jays landed Merrifield for Samad Taylor and Max Castillo. There will be deals out there for an astute GM. There may also be the option of taking on salary to make a trade happen.

Incidentally, in retrospect the Jays were wise to trade Groshans and keep Orelvis. There used to be some debate around which prospect would emerge as the better player. That debate now seems to be largely over.

christaylor - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 06:30 PM EDT (#431963) #

File under: When You Know Your Fanbase

99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#431965) #

Well, I hope the ump scorecard shows at least a +2 runs for the Padres.
Monah struck out Soto with a change up easily in the zone that the home plate ump called a ball. 2 pitches later Soto hit an HR

James W - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#431966) #

Either the plate umpire is terrible or Sportsnet's camera work/strike zone box are terrible. Probably both.

James W - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#431967) #

Nigel - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#431968) #

He�s had some tough calls but he�s also been pretty awful. Very very few FBs are anywhere near where Jansen is calling for it.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#431969) #

Gameday had pitch 6 as a clear strike. It's unusual for an umpire to miss a change that badly.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#431970) #

41 pitches to get through the first inning.

BlueJayWay - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#431971) #

Well that wasn't very good.

lexomatic - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#431973) #

Well, I hope the ump scorecard shows at least a +2 runs for the Padres.

It won't. It'll show the difference in run value between the 2-2 count that occurred, and the strikeout that should have occurred.

Always, a HUUUUGE problem with the system And as a manager, I would be playing the game under protest.
This will be a good test, if Manoah can't recover, then he is toast this year at least.

James W - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 07:34 PM EDT (#431974) #

The umpire screwed up one call (well, another one in the at bat to Springer. And ANOTHER one in the Belt at bat) but it has to be a theoretic model. If Manoah would've got a swing-and-miss on the next pitch, your system would have to count it as 0 advantage given to the Padres, which would be wrong.

99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#431975) #

He gave one back in the Chapman AB.

Then blew another call in the next half inning for Manoah.

I would love to know how this (ump performance)is addressed by MLB

Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#431976) #

Umpires:

HP: Malachi Moore. 1B: Bruce Dreckman. 2B: Stu Scheurwater. 3B: Mark Wegner.

Moore had no business hovering around the mound, irrespective of anything the pitching coach said.

Atta boy, Pete.

lexomatic - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#431977) #

If it doesn't describe what actually happened - runs that shouldn't have occurred/ (possibly) affecting the game - then it is misleading, and not accurate. The ideal would be both. The theoretical model , and what actually happened. If calls happen at inopportune times and lead to runs, that's valuable info, and if it has some consistency ( some umps do it more often/ only some umps screw ups lead to runs), then it's even more useful.

lexomatic - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#431978) #

What we really need is to see if bad blown calls early lead to bad player decisions/ more swinging strikes later in the game.

SK in NJ - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#431979) #

The umpire has been bad but Manoah still looks awful. They can�t keep throwing him out there.

lexomatic - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#431980) #

Anyway Manoah doesn't look playable, even with bad umpiring.

Nigel - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#431981) #

There will fe enough excuses tonight to give him another start but I didn�t think he was very good against a terrible Tigers team and it�s more of the same tonight.

Chuck - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#431983) #

The camera guy seems drunk tonight. Several foul popups have proved elusive.

christaylor - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#431984) #

I want to be wrong, but barring some undisclosed injury, Manoah will a handful of starts before finding a low leverage role in the pen.

He used to pitch to the zone and get folks out with a biting slider. He now does neither.

That being said, I'd love for him to find a few ticks on his fastball and bite on his slider to be a setup reliever.

Case in point Pearson finally looks playable out of the pen maybe Manoah will be too.

Petey Baseball - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#431985) #

Luckily, his control was so bad that the Padres only could stand and watch and not do too much damage. With the offense heating up and the Padres bad bullpen, there's a chance to erase another Manoah debacle.

That should be the final straw, because I agree, the Detroit start he danced between the raindrops and got people excited again because the final pitching line looked good.

That should be the last pitch he throws in the majors this season, barring some sort of major turnaround in A ball or AAA or wherever they send him. I hope the Jays have the guts to do it.

greenfrog - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#431986) #

It has to be tempting to swap Ryu for Manoah at this point (in a week or whatever).

Nigel - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#431987) #

Pearson looks really solid.

I still don�t see any benefit to the rush to get Manoah back in Toronto. Hopefully Ryu can give them something.

Mike Green - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#431988) #

Exactly what I think, greenfrog. Coke to you.

Nigel - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#431989) #

Varsho is such an easy out.

Kasi - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:42 PM EDT (#431990) #

Yeah send Manoah down til when he can really figure things out.

christaylor - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#431991) #

Pearson does not look solid. Meatballs up.

uglyone - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#431992) #

Jackson, on the other hand, has been nothing but solid this year.

Cracka - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#431993) #

Jay Jackson has been great. I don't have exact details but from what I can gather this is how his last 12 days has gone:

July 6th: Added to MLB roster as 27th man and traveled to Chicago to be with the team. Found out his fiance gave birth that morning to a boy born 14-15 weeks early. Pitched 1.1 innings scoreless innings. Officially added to the active roster and placed on the paternity list. Flew to Utah to be with baby/mom.

July 14th: Flew back to Toronto, pitched a scoreless inning that night and another scoreless inning on July 16th. Flew back to Utah to be with baby/mom on the off day.

July 18th: Flew back on Toronto, pitched 2 scoreless innings.

It will be awfully hard to send him back to the minors at this point with a 0.82 ERA.

scottt - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 10:12 PM EDT (#431994) #

Manoah wasn't great, but Musgrove wasn't much better.

If balls and strikes are called properly, the Jays are up 1-0 in the first and Manoah saves a load of bullets.
Also, the 2 doubles that produced the next 2 runs were catchable balls.
Chapman couldn't squeeze a ball that hit the third base bag and Springer seem to lose a sinking linedrive.
Then Chapman dropped another ball in another inning.
Manoah generated soft contact but the plays were not made.

A game to forget and the run differential doesn't tell the real story once again.

Magpie - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#431995) #

Jackson, on the other hand, has been nothing but solid this year.

Aside from that one at bat when Aaron Judge knew what was coming, it would be hard for him to be better.

Jackson has options. White doesn't, and they gave up something to get White. But even if you keep him and option Jackson when Ryu arrives, he'll never survive the arrival of Chad Green.

hypobole - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 10:58 PM EDT (#431997) #

As poor as our pitching was, aside from Jackson, in the 8 other games that have gone final so far, 8 teams surrendered more runs than the Jays.

hypobole - Tuesday, July 18 2023 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#431998) #

Eleven teams have now given up double digit runs tonight. Mitch White may have a market. :)

SK in NJ - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 01:02 AM EDT (#431999) #

Not that justifying a trade is a reason to keep a pitcher that is hurting you on the roster during a playoff push, but the emergence of De Jesus from that trade should make it a bit easier to move on from White, if saving face is a reason for White�s continued existence on the roster. I think demoting Manoah for Ryu, and dropping White for Green is possible while keeping Jackson on the roster, but I suspect Jackson will be the one to go down.

scottt - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 06:43 AM EDT (#432000) #

This is one game where the challenge system would have worked.
I still much prefer the automated strike zone.

Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 07:57 AM EDT (#432002) #

"San Diego Padres" is an anagram for "disparaged ones."

85bluejay - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#432004) #

Shame the Jays didn't reacquire Ryan Noda last December when probably cash consideartions would have done the job - a cheap productive LHH - saved on Brandon Belt salary.

ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#432005) #

I hate that the tone after the game from Schneider regarding Manoah was once again, " it looked worse than it was." I know he shouldn't disparage the player but I hope this isn't management's view privately. For whatever reason, Manoah has lost velocity on his fastball and bite on his slider and really is only capable of offering mediocre relief in low leverage situations.

He was one of my favorite players on the team last year and I hate to see him struggle, but he needs to be sent to the minors for a longer period to work things out. It looks like a rush job calling him back up now.

hypobole - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#432006) #

Mentioned last night the amount of teams that gave up double-digit runs last night. Mariners by giving up 10 against the Twins, made it 12 teams total. That's the most in one day since 1894.

mathesond - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 09:29 AM EDT (#432007) #

Maybe Schneider is trying to pump up Manoah's trade value. value. Who knows, they might be able to get Nick Frasso for him...

dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#432008) #

These next two games are going to be great fun to watch. I'm putting everything off to watch them. Darvish vs Berrios is awesome. I expect a pitcher's duel to die for with a clutch big hit. Wicked stuff from both and that knuckle curve from Darvish is something to behold.

Bassitt vs Snell could be another pitcher's duel. I really enjoy watching both of these pitchers.

At the same time these two games can help determine "how real" each team is regarding a world series run. If the Padres take 2 of 3 or sweep the Jays then I expect them to trade big in the next 2 weeks as their GM usually does.

scottt - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#432009) #

This isn't the Cy Young Manoah but it wasn't a terrible outing either.
The hits were lucky bounces through the defense.
The walks were mostly on the ump.

I don't think that Bassitt or Gausman would have won this one with only 1 run of support and handicapped by the ump.

Given that his change isn't very good, I'd like him to work on a cutter.
I think that would complement the 2-seamer and slider very well.

Magpie - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#432010) #

Tough night for the AL East (0-5), good night for the NL West (5-0).

uglyone - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#432016) #

Yeah Manoah didn't look great but the sheer amount of extremely costly defensive miscues/close plays plus some big iffy ump calls makes it hard for me to gauge.

hypobole - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#432018) #

Read something I thought was awesome. Ronald Acuna has been a great hitter for years. But this year he has improved historically. His 23.6% K rates the past 2 seasons were his career best. This year it's at 11.9%.

If he keeps it up through seasons end, he'll be only the 3rd player ever to improve their K rate by 10% one season to the next. The only 2 so far - David Ortiz 2010/11 and Mark Belanger 1968/69.

Waveburner - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#432021) #

I don't find it difficult to gauge Manoah. Sure there was a few bad calls. But that shouldn't change the evaluation I don't think.

He can't locate any of his pitches with any sort of consistency. He doesn't get any chase on pitches out of the zone. He doesn't get any swing and miss on pitches in the zone. The grades on his stuff are not a mistake at this point.

He looks like a minor leaguer who should only be called up when your normal rotation has been decimated by injuries.

I remain hopeful that Manoah can be fixed over the off season. But right now he is broken and shows no reason for optimism.

Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 02:14 PM EDT (#432026) #

"doesn't get any chase on pitches out of the zone . . . doesn't get any swing and miss on pitches in the zone"

That's it.

Nigel - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#432028) #

Waveburner - that's exactly my assessment too. And it doesn't speak well for the Jays pitching/development staff in that that is really no different than when he was first sent down. The idea that the team was best positioned to know, had made an assessment and deemed him ready to return doesn't look good in my view.

hypobole - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 04:00 PM EDT (#432032) #

Lukes down, Luplow up,

Petey Baseball - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#432033) #

Jays about to be just 5 back of Tampa for the division. Rays coming back to the pack in a big way has really opened up the division for a potential four team race at this rate.

electric carrot - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#432034) #

On the reliability meter:
2nd half 2023 Manaoh = 2nd half 2022 Kikuchi.

It makes me sad that Kirk and Monoah are so off pace this year.

scottt - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#432035) #

Chasing is something a hitter do.
Some hitters don't chase and when the ump don't call the 3rd strike there's not much one can do.

Manoah's pitches have always been easy to recognize.
They can tell the slider from the fastball early.
He's never blown hitters with the fastball.
He's always been around 92-93mph.

Gausman doesn't get swing and miss on pitch in the zone either.
The splitter is missed when it's out of the zone and if they start taking it, he brings it in the zone for a called strike.

All considered, there wasn't an inning that was as bad as the first inning of game one against the Mariners in last year's first wild card game.
I just wish he'd bounce a fastball against the ump's helmet when the guy is not calling a fair game.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 07:30 PM EDT (#432037) #

Umps, man.

Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#432038) #

HP: Bruce Dreckman / 1B: Stu Scheurwater / 2B: Mark Wegner / 3B: Malachi Moore

scottt - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 08:01 PM EDT (#432040) #

Speaking of swinging strikes.
Darvish is getting loads of them.
Berrios got 1 to end he first inning on a change up.
In the second, 2 to Cro (fastball and slurve) and 1 fastball by the young catcher.
Then 2 in the the 3rd, one fastball by the rookie and a slurve to Tatis.

I don't think I've seen a check swing by the Padres tonight.

Varsho is missing a lot. Vlad chases too much.
Springer chases too, but less with 2 strikes.

Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#432041) #

I expect a pitcher's duel to die for with a clutch big hit.

Excellent prediction thus far.

Nigel - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#432042) #

The way Varsho is going at the plate they may be forced to consider trying to resign KK.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 08:23 PM EDT (#432043) #

Berrios walking the #9 hitter on four pitches in a scoreless ballgame in T5 with one out. Then hitting the leadoff hitter, bringing up Tatis/Soto/Machado. Not ideal.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 08:30 PM EDT (#432044) #

Bichette probably just lost the game for the Blue Jays with that errant throw.

The little things.

Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#432045) #

Sweet Lou Piniella: "You can't win if you don't throw strikes."

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 09:29 PM EDT (#432046) #

Rally time? Bichette is such a good hitter.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#432047) #

Vladdy has got nothing at the moment. Swinging at pitchers� pitches.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 09:33 PM EDT (#432048) #

4th and 5th hitters in line up are automatic outs it seems. Is it crazy to say I'd take Teo over Vladdy?

Kelekin - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#432049) #

It would be pretty ridiculous to say you'd take the guy on pace for 200 strikeouts and a .718 OPS over the guy who has a .781 OPS and significantly better situational numbers, yes. It's frustrating to watch the Jays squander opportunities but it's important to not let that reactiveness affect reality.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 09:42 PM EDT (#432050) #

Nah, I've seen this narrative play out last year. Vladdy OPS shrinks as the season goes on. I remember who shows up when it matters. Teo and Bo not Vladdy or Chapman.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#432051) #

Teo is not as good as he used to be. Note the progressive decline in his wRC+ over the last four years:

142
132
129
100

Kelekin - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#432052) #

Teo 2023: .609 OPS in Late & Close, .605 in Tie Game, .567 in High Leverage
Vladdy 2023: .896 OPS in Late & Close, .812 in Tie Game, 1.022 in High Leverage

Teo Career: .710 OPS in Late & Close, .738 in Tie Game, .759 High Leverage
Vladdy Career: .792 in Late & Close, .846 in Tie Game, .908 in High Leverage

Don't get me wrong, Teo is a good late-season hitter. But it doesn't matter how good you are in October if you're not helping your team get there.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 09:53 PM EDT (#432053) #

I'm not playing a video game or fantasy baseball where max WAR or stats matter. Im asking myself "who could come up to bat with 2 men on and none out against Nick Martinez right now and deliver a key hit?" I'd prefer Teoscar in that role because whether or not his numbers are better or declining he sure as hell was willing to go the other way or take a walk. I'd take Semien there too.

I guess im in the minority when I think about players that can help the team win. If it was about having one player who can put up the best stats over 162 I would pick Vlad every day, but that's not the case. This team needs a clean up hitter that can be patient and hit elite pitching. We have one guy that can do that and he's usually on base for Vlad and left on base. Imagine leading the league in hits but only scoring 47 runs...baffling.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#432054) #

To me, this game was encapsulated by a few key situations:

-Runners on in B1 with none out when Belt was wrongly called out on strikes (high curveball), taking the pressure off Darvish

-Vladdy failing to come through with multiple runners on in B1, B5 and B8

-Bichette�s offline throw to Chapman T5, setting the stage for the two-run single for Machado (Berrios should have been out of the inning unscathed)

Kelekin - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#432055) #

"I'm not playing a video game or fantasy baseball where max WAR or stats matter."

But those stats are what can be used to check against our personal biases. You have seen Vladdy flounder at key times recently and used that to retroactively ignore the fact Teo is significantly worse in the situations you're suggesting are important. If you are asking who is more likely to deliver a key hit with 2 out against Nick Martinez, sorry, but it's Vladdy. That's just factual. If you want someone who is more patient, against, that's Vladdy (Teoscar has much worse walk rates and strikeout rates in ALL situations).

Again, I'm not saying it isn't frustrating dalimon5, the team is a hard watch at times here and that includes Vladdy. But there is some revisionist history to believe it would be better to have Teo over Vladdy now.

Nigel - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 10:06 PM EDT (#432056) #

Notwithstanding the records coming in, if you compare the lineups the Jays are at a disadvantage so this isn�t a terribly surprising outcome. Tomorrow could be an equally tough day at the office.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#432057) #

While I agree with Kelekin, Teo seems to be someone who got the most out of his talent, while Vladdy sometimes seems to coast on his immense talent (even if this may not be factually correct). Which may be part of what is underlying fans� frustration with VGJ.

Magpie - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#432058) #

I'd prefer Teoscar in that role because whether or not his numbers are better or declining he sure as hell was willing to go the other way or take a walk.

You can prefer whoever you like. If you prefer the player hitting .208/.288/.321 when it's Late nd Close over the player hitting .339/.354/.542, I say go for it. After all, no matter who you prefer, chances are they're going to fail. That's just how the game works. One fails a little less often.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#432059) #

I never said I prefer Teoscar over Vlad. I simply asked if it is crazy for me to want Teo over Vlad right now, implying that Vladdy is not good at the moment. It is a reflection of the umpteenth time that Vlad, with all of his talent lets it go to waste. If I purchase a Porsche and get VW performance and ask if I'm crazy to want a Toyota over the Porsche that won't drive like a Porsche, I don't need to be told that a Porsche is faster than a Toyota. I already know that but it doesn't change the fact that I'm not getting performance I'm paying for.

Stats are not facts and dismissing one person's opinion because you have stats to compare "facts" is laughable. Greenfrog is a lot closer to my opinion that Vladdy is under performing. I see a .282 career hitter who is on pace for maybe 2 WAR this year. If you watch the games it is obvious that he is guessing pitches when he actually has the bat speed and skill to adjust to the pitches in real time as Bo does. He doesn't run hard and he's guessing in key situations leading to quick outs.

Of course, he's Vlad so he doesn't need to maximize his god given talents, why live up to the 80 grade scale bestowed to him when he can just guess off speed on Darvish in a key at bat only to get schooled and result in another infield pop up or ground out. Absolutely unacceptable for a clean up hitter of his potential. So tired of putting the hopes on this guy. Nobody wants to hold this guy accountable. It's only getting worse as Bo Bichette (who I felt the same about last year) shows how it actually should be done.

Move him up or move him down but don't put him in the clean up spot. Hoping this year is different and he doesn't have a .644 OPS in September again. For July he is at .679. If I went by your logic then any player having a better season with stats would be a better player than Vlad in these situations. Using your logic Manoah is one of the best pitchers in baseball last year and that's a fact and Berrios was done and nothing can change that. Learn to watch the games and ask yourself if it's possible that what you see can tell you something that is more true than the numbers. Example, Berrios stuff is way too good to be this bad of a pitcher (2022). Or you can just use the stats and have no explanation a year later when he's one of our two best pitchers.

Kelekin - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#432060) #

Nothing you said in your last message was implied even remotely in any of your prior posts. You said "is it crazy to say I'd take Teo over Vladdy?", to which I said yes and tried to provide a counter-argument. I fully agree with what greenfrog said - but you weren't suggesting Vladdy was underperforming, you were suggesting another player.

Clearly we won't see eye-to-eye on it. Either way, I am sure we both hope that Vlad improves, because this team needs him to be better.

Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#432061) #

Earlier today, on Leaside Cowboy's balcony, a pair of bright red cardinals had a trash-squawk showdown.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#432062) #

If he's gonna be this version of himself (which we've seen many times) then just give me the weaker player who's more consistent whether that is Teo or someone else and spend the 30-40 million ear marked for Vladdy on someone else. That's essentially my thinking.

Magpie - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#432063) #

Using your logic Manoah is one of the best pitchers in baseball last year and that's a fact and Berrios was done and nothing can change that. Learn to watch the games and ask yourself if it's possible that what you see can tell you something that is more true than the numbers.

I think I'll just repeat what I wrote about Berrios when the 2022 season was over.

Berrios did hold the opposition to three runs or less in 21 of his starts. That will always give you a chance to win, and the team did in fact go 20-1 in those games. He didn't pitch remotely like an ace, but he was generally a decent starting pitcher.

I watch the games, too.

dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#432064) #

Don't even get me started on the ghost of Alehandro Kirk....

Leaside, why do you speak in 3rd person?

dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 19 2023 @ 10:59 PM EDT (#432065) #

Mags you're reading a message not intended for you.

ISLAND BOY - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 05:05 AM EDT (#432066) #

I agree with you about Vlad, dalimon. A lot of the time he's not the big, scary bat you want batting cleanup and certainly not someone who's going to lead the team into the playoffs and beyond. Too often it seems like the opposing pitchers outsmart him.

Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 05:32 AM EDT (#432067) #

L-C emulates Rickey.

Glevin - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#432069) #

"I agree with you about Vlad, dalimon. A lot of the time he's not the big, scary bat you want batting cleanup and certainly not someone who's going to lead the team into the playoffs and beyond. Too often it seems like the opposing pitchers outsmart him."

It's the single biggest issue with the team now. You can upgrade here and there but if your elite 160 WRC+ hitter because a 115 WRC+, you are in deep trouble. I think it is almost all mental with Vladdy. He gets in his head and then overthinks things. Not sure how, or even if possible to fix it.

Nigel - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#432073) #

I�ve been saying for some time now that, absent the Dunedin/Buffalo CV induced stretch. there is actually very little evidence to suggest Vladdy is an elite bat. So, I understand that there are issues with Vladdy but to lay the offensive challenges largely at his doorstep is a bit harsh. Kirk, Espinal and Varsho�s bats are getting close to unplayable. They are regularly sending out lineups with two of those players in it so there are nightly automatic outs. A start would be to lean more heavily on Jansen and give Biggio more ABs (given he�s hit better after a horrible start).

dalimon5 - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#432075) #

Nigel I never subscribed to your expressed POV of Vladdy as non elite until now. While you're right about Varsho and Kirk, the FO and Schneider have been able to "hide" them or mitigate their playing time or where they hit in the line up. Acquisitions like Merifield help them do that with Varsho as an example.

When it comes to Vladdy they have no back up plan and they will bot move him in the order and that's why he gets more scorn. No matter what happens he is your clean up hitter every day. To me he looks a lot like Varsho did at the beginning of the year when he was hitting 4th. Maybe a move up would suit him better.

Springer
Bellinger
Vlad
Bo

That would cure Vladdy, maybe.

greenfrog - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#432077) #

I don't disagree that Vladdy has been a disappointment, but remember that there was a lot of disappointment in Bichette around this time last year. If the Jays had cut bait and traded him for Jazz Chisholm, as was proposed, they would be in a non-playoff spot right now. I think there is the potential for Vladdy to heat up and help the team down the stretch.

Also, it could be way worse. Look at Houston and Jose Abreu.

Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 11:16 AM EDT (#432078) #

Vladimir has not hit a home run against a left-hander pitcher this season. (53 AB, 63 PA.)

soupman - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#432079) #

Bo's inability to make a low pressure throw cost that game. It won't show up in the stats for him - rather, according to the statistics, Berrios surrendered a double steal and eats the earnies instead of an inning ending pickoff.

I thought pinch hitting for Kiermeier who was the only player outside the top of the lineup with a hit and has reverse splits this year was a decision I wouldn't have made. It feels like sometimes Schneider manages like a little league coach - trying to get everyone their cracks and the impression I was given was that he was brought in to be less of a 'players' coach'.

I was confident they'd mount a comeback but today will be a good bounce-back opportunity and a chance to put a dent in Snell's Cy Young hopes.

Dewey - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 12:19 PM EDT (#432080) #

�L-C emulates Rickey.�

Hardly.

Not sure what you�re taking, cowboy; but it doesn�t seem to be helping.
And how�re the shrink-sessions going? Have you told him/her that you�re the only person on this site who refers to himself in the third person? Cause that�s interesting, at least.

hypobole - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#432081) #

�L-C emulates Rickey.�

Hardly.

Does emulate Chucky though.

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/2017/05/16/chuckie-hacked-f/324532001/

Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#432082) #

As a matter of fact, just yesterday L-C's psychiatrist increased his medication.

greenfrog - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#432083) #

Guys, it�s 2023. Enlightened societies are trying to eliminate stigma about mental health issues (which are extremely common), not perpetuate it.

jerjapan - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#432084) #

Well, I�ve got four of em myself, so thanks for saying that Greenfrog!

Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#432085) #

Aripiprazole, by the way.

It's all good. L-C is tougher than a $2 steak.

99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#432086) #

4 of the first 6 hitters reached base. The jays got zero runs out of this.

It�s honestly just insane at this point.

Pick off, caught stealing, missed ball on D. Hard to win when you give away outs likes this

Nigel - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#432087) #

Regardless of what happened afterwards, I was really not a fan of that stolen base attempt by Merrifield. This team just makes way too many unnecessary outs on the bases.

greenfrog - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#432088) #

Oh yeah. Way too many outs given away on the bases. This is not a recent phenomenon for this team.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#432089) #

Luplow 81 mph grounder for a hit; Kiermaier 100 mph line drive for an out.

Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

The break even point on a 1 out steal of third in a tie game early is surely over 75%.

Nigel - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#432090) #

There are outs and then there are "outs" on the bases. All hurt, but the totally unnecessary "outs" really hurt. Getting thrown out at third with none out in that situation is totally unnecessary.

Nigel - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#432091) #

Sorry folks, lost the plot there for a minute. With one out, not nearly so bad. I'm "o-fer" today:(

dalimon5 - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#432092) #

Lets remember he had the bag stolen earlier in the at bat and Espinal was swinging. Then when he went to steal again Espy did not swing. I like the aggressiveness from Whit.

dalimon5 - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#432093) #

Manny Machado... i havent seen such lack of hustle since...Vlad.

krose - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#432094) #

Yes! Finally got back into the site.

Could I make a suggestion for acquiring Otani? (Oh no, here we go.) start with offering Marinez, Tideman and VGJ. Then look at someone else from AAA who will sweeten the deal but is not needed in the next year.

99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:26 PM EDT (#432095) #

Bases loaded. Kiermaier strikes out swinging without seeing a single strike.

greenfrog - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#432097) #

With the frequent offensive droughts, the Jays pitchers often have to be near-perfect to put the team in a position to win. I think the offense will be better as the hitting with RISP normalizes, but the lineup could use an additional catalyst, namely a productive everyday RH bat.

Chuck - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#432098) #

Not easy to walk Bichette twice in a game. Snell�s going all Blass today.

Nigel - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:36 PM EDT (#432099) #

11 baserunners in 4 plus innings - 1 run so far. That isn't easy to accomplish.

Magpie - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#432100) #

Not easy to walk Bichette twice in a game.

No kidding. Bichette walked twice in June. Not his game.

krose - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#432101) #

Chapman looks lost. First two walks of the inning appear to be strategic.

Chuck - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#432102) #

Our Canuck ump has a generous strike zone. Wide and open like a Saskatchewan farm.

krose - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#432103) #

Very intelligent inning from Snell.

Chuck - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#432104) #

Snell has been channeling Leonard Cohen today. Like a bird on a wire, like a drunk in a midnight choir.

greenfrog - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#432106) #

In 2015, it was like, "oh, the Blue Jays are playing? Is it 8-0 yet?"

In 2023, it's like, "oh, the Blue Jays are playing? Have they managed to score a run yet?"

Chuck - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#432107) #

Lots of little leaguers in the crowd getting �how not to� lessons this inning.

krose - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#432108) #

Just not a smart team. Lots of talent but little league mistakes.

krose - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#432109) #

No synergy!😟 Just flat. Not really into the team, just a bunch of individuals doing their thing, unable to figure out what it would take to find that extra something. Kinda like a corporate job that�s run from the top down. Oh wait�

krose - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#432110) #

More like that! Great job from both Mayza and VGJ.

Magpie - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#432111) #

That play was so weird Mayza didn't realize that the tag was not necessary.

Chuck - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 03:21 PM EDT (#432112) #

Mayza didn't realize that the tag was not necessary.

Further traumatizing the little leaguers. "Hey dad, it's a force play, right?"

A 1-0 game would seem to suggest a nice pitcher's duel, some nice defense, etc. Nope. This game has been an ugly slopfest, a true eyesore. Lots of crappy pitching. Crappy umping. Crappy fielding. Crappy baserunning.

dalimon5 - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#432113) #

Sorry guys no comment from me my mouth is full.

krose - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#432114) #

Yes. Kinda weird. But at least he knew enough to get himself over there.

Nigel - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#432115) #

I'm with you Chuck - it's hard to feel good about this team right now. This is the second time recently that the good guys have won or are headed that way but baseball has really been the big loser.

krose - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 03:30 PM EDT (#432116) #

Nice swing from VGJ. He sure reminds me of VW.

greenfrog - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 03:32 PM EDT (#432117) #

"Late innings and close" oppo home run? Nice. Vladdy has a 120 wRC+ after the home run. 131 career wRC+. He'll probably finish somewhere in that range. You'd like him to be in the 140+ range but the Jays will be OK if they get Kirk and some of the other laggards going -- and they acquire a useful RH bat to hit against LHP.

electric carrot - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#432118) #

there is actually very little evidence to suggest Vladdy is an elite bat.

Exhibit A:
99mph fastball oppo field homer late in low scoring game.

(Just compiling Nigel.)

Magpie - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#432119) #

Kirk was clearly ready to break out. Once he starts getting those infield hits....

electric carrot - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#432120) #

I wondered if Schneider was sending Kirk a message last game when he pinch hit Espinal instead of Kirk. I was like "Wow!"
If so, Kirk replies "message received" in today's game.

Nigel - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#432121) #

I don't know whether Vladdy can be an elite hitter or not and I certainly won't argue if you are of that view. You have elite exit velocities and minor league numbers on your side. However, you also have to accept that, if you eliminate the first couple of months of 2019 from his major league stats, Vladdy has a career wRC+ 125 or so over 2300 or so PAs.

Kirk remembering that he's actually a good hitter would help this club immensely.

Chuck - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#432122) #

I wondered if Schneider was sending Kirk a message last game when he pinch hit Espinal instead of Kirk. I was like "Wow!"

Kirk also pinch-hit last night (for Kiermaier). Schneider chose Espinal to be the table-setter and Kirk to be the table-clearer.

electric carrot - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#432123) #

"Kirk also pinch-hit last night"

Ok, I walked away from the game after the Espinal at bat. Not so much of a message then. Thanks for the correction although I liked it better when Schneider was making a point.

scottt - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#432124) #

The Jays outscored the Padres 4-2 in the last 2 games.
The first game was a disaster but a large share of that was on the ump and the manager was able to save the pen for the next 2 games.

Magpie - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#432125) #

I don't know whether Vladdy can be an elite hitter or not

Neither do I. Neither does anyone else. I'm not going to kick him to the curb if he's merely a good hitter. And it's not at all certain that that's all he's going to be. He's 24 years old. Players are not necessarily finished products at that age, even if we've been watching them so long that it feels that way. When Barry Bonds was 24, having already played more than 500 MLB games already, he hit .248/.351/.426 with 19 HRs. There was still some growth to come.

In more ways than one, of course.

Nigel - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#432126) #

I agree with all of that Magpie, but my point was merely to highlight that banking on Vladdy as an elite bat is problematic both from the perspective of fan "disappointment" and with respect to roster building. The Jays don't exactly have a pipeline of prospects who could outhit Vladdy so his being "merely good" still is important for this club and he may yet become an elite hitter. The 2019 stint in Dunedin/Buffalo caused this team numerous problems and not just in 2019 - it set expectations for fans around the offensive profile of several of the hitters and, worse, I think it fooled the front office about exactly what they had on the roster in some cases.

Magpie - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#432127) #

Oh, that's reasonable. What's especially weird about Dunedin and Buffalo is that it was mostly just Guerrero who went berserk there. Well, him and Marcus Semien I suppose. Espinal was great in Buffalo, but lousy in Dunedin. Hernandez was really good in Dunedin, merely adequate in Buffalo. Bichette was pretty much the same everywhere.

It's also not unreasonable if one doesn't feel good about the 2023 Blue Jays. But maybe the glass isn't half empty. Maybe it's half full. After all, the last time a Blue Jays team had a better record at this juncture was in 1992.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#432129) #

Alejandro Kirk's first child is now just over 4 months old. Having a newborn may have contributed to his first-half struggles.

A return of his power stroke would be most welcome.

krose - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 07:41 PM EDT (#432132) #

I really like VGJ as a fun loving kid playing a child�s game. But ever since I saw him live in the minors his efforts to really make himself a top tear player remind me of Vernon Wells. Both wildly talented but neither so interested in being the over the top talent that would carry a team year in and year out. For this reason I�d like to see the Jays use VGJ as the key piece in an Otani deal.

christaylor - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#432133) #

The Vernon Wells comp is a little baffling. In a down year, at 23, Vlad put up a higher OPS+ than Wells ever did. I'd bet that Vlad will put up an OPS+ greater than 132 this year, again being better than Wells. He made himself into a serviceable 1B which ought to speak to his competitive nature. If anything, he looks as if he is trying to hard out there, which Wells never did.

christaylor - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#432135) #

"After all, the last time a Blue Jays team had a better record at this juncture was in 1992."

For all the frustrating baseball we've seen this year, this is good to keep in mind. A few break in yesterday's game and we're probably talking about the Jays catching the O's and/or Rays and not about Vlad's future.

Also, I don't remember being this frustrated last year. That team, despite being objectively worse was more fun to watch.

chris_jays - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#432136) #

Magpie, is there a way to look up teams records in the first X numbers of games (96 in this case) by season to compare how they all rank?

Ryan Day - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#432137) #

Wells was also a good centre fielder, so a strict offensive comparison doesn't mean much. But I was also thinking about Wells today, as a guy who had star talent and put up a few star seasons, but was also frequently just a "very good" player. Some players are superstars year-in, year-out, and others have peaks & valleys. I don't know that anyone who's not with the team on a daily basis can say it's about effort, or lack thereof.

dalimon5 - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#432138) #

Vlad is closer to Vernon than Delgado thats for sure. The belief for Vlad was a 3B with Paul Molitor average, Delgado OPS and more power. Right now we will be lucky if he can be someone with an OPS around .800/850 with .280 average for the length of his career, understanding that numbers typically decline past 30.

Magpie - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#432140) #

Magpie, is there a way to look up teams records in the first X numbers of games

I'll tell you how I do it. I look at each season's schedule, one year at a time. You must remember - I have no life.

The best record through this part of the season, by a fair bit, was the 1985 team who were of course the only Jays team to play .600 ball for an entire season. They were 60-37 through 97 games.

greenfrog - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#432141) #

Bautista pitched another scoreless inning (2 K�s) for the O�s tonight. ERA is 0.96. He�s en route to having one of the all-time great closer seasons. Fangraphs says his average velo this season is 100 MPH, but that�s just the tip
of the statistical iceberg.

Magpie - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 09:31 PM EDT (#432142) #

Vlad is closer to Vernon than Delgado thats for sure.

This is probably a cue for me to mention that when Delgado was Guerrero's age, he had hit .247/.337/.455, OPS+ of 101 in 220 MLB games. Wells had hit .296/.332/.491, OPS+ of 111 in 377 games. Guerrero has obviously accomplished quite a bit more and been quite a bit better as a major leaguer. From that beginning, Delgado got better. Wells did not. Guerrero's story has a long way to go before we know how it ends.

soupman - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#432143) #

I am not a fan of the kid, but i don't think it's fair to say he doesn't put in effort on the field. in fact, i think it's more the opposite. he often has 'too much enthusiasm' to run down a ball or make a spectacular play. i often say he plays like a little leaguer. he likes to make the splashy play often at a cost to the team. we see this in his base running antics most of all, but it's likely just who he is.

since his value has probably never been lower (outside of 2 weeks ago before winning the HR derby), trading him would probably be unwise unless you think he's worse than he's shown this year. if you believe, as i do, that he has battled a wrist injury, then you are probably more impressed with the production in spite of that and hoping for more signs of power returning (which we have seen in the last few series).

hypobole - Thursday, July 20 2023 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#432144) #

Take a look at Bautista's minor league career - it's crazy. Miami signed him in 2012 as a 17 yr old. He was still pitching in the Dominican at age 22 and at age 24 in 2019 was putting up pedestrian numbers in A ball. After the shutdown in 2020, his numbers showed a totally different pitcher as he shot through the minors in 2021 and finally reached the majors at age 27.

bpoz - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 07:08 AM EDT (#432145) #

Since the AS break ended. Miami 0-6, TB 1-5, NYY 1-5, Baltimore 5-2, LAA 4-2, St Louis 6-1 and Toronto 4-2. This is a small sample but IMO Miami and NYY may be panicking. TB probably neutral. Baltimore and Toronto feeling good and LAA possibly confused/unsure. St Louis I don't know!!

About 10 games to go for each team before the trade deadline. The trade deadline rumors always provide me with a good laugh. Last year Soto. This year Ohtani.

dalimon5 - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#432147) #

There were a lot of rumours last year between the Jays and Tigers around Skubal and relief pitching. I didnt realize Skubal had already returned.

dalimon5 - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 08:53 AM EDT (#432148) #

I was at the game yesterday for Vladdy's HR. After the game on the radio they talked about how it wasn't a hard to hit pitch since ot was down the middle. Is this true?

electric carrot - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 09:34 AM EDT (#432149) #

"it wasn't a hard to hit pitch since ot was down the middle. Is this true?"

It was a 98.5 mile an hour sinker that was low in the zone but more less middle of the plate.

scottt - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#432151) #

This is the like the Encarnacion theory of hitting.
Every AB you get one good pitch to hit, if you can do damage on it, you're an elite hitter.

(Encarnacion would often lament about missing his pitch.)

hypobole - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#432152) #

Vlad thoughts. Much has been said about the 2021 parks helping Vlad. They did, but not as much (or in the way) people believe. He had a .601 SLG%, but a .590 xSLG%. Whether you play in a little league park or the most cavernous stadium ever, xSLG doesn't change. What Vlad seemed to do was try to hit home runs, like in the HR derbies with more max level uppercut swings.

It worked so well, he seemed to abandon it in 2022. Statcast shows he was more lucky than good. This year is in between the 2 but more like 2021. However his fly balls have been historically unlucky. At the AS break, he was slugging .656 on FB's. His quality of contact says he should have been slugging 1.183 on those FB's. That's the largest gap since Statcast was introduced in 2015. Third largest FB gap is interesting. I don't have FB only, just overall numbers, but Matt Carpenter in 2021 slugged .275 despite a .425 xSLG. The Cards dumped him and he slugged. a crazy .727 last year despite only a moderately improved .484 xSLG. (Yeah, Yankee Stadium).

When a player is such an outlier like Vlad this year, there is always regression to the mean. Things will get better, and probably much better, on that front. He does have issues. Some are swing and miss related, but he's still good there overall. His defence has gone from overrated to bad, and he seems to have fully bought into Schneider's seeming "It's OK to be moronically aggressive on the basepaths" philosophy.

scottt - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#432153) #

Soto didn't sign an extension even with the Padres who are spending like there is no tomorrow.
Ohtani isn't signing an extension with Toronto.
If you're willing to overpay the insane free agent market, you don't trade to rent the player for 2 months.
You wait until the winter, the price will be the same.

The Jays usually have to offer an extra year to sign a top free agent.
For Ohtani, it would be at least 2 or 3 extra years at 40M. Probably more.
Is someone going to pay for a top DH (30M+) and a top pitcher (35M+) for Ohtani?

Now, Soto in left field would look really nice, but I don't see how the Padres would replace him.

scottt - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 10:09 AM EDT (#432155) #

Usually it's the league making adjustments.
They started to pound Vlad low and away and he hit a lot of balls hard into the ground.

You can change your swing to go after low breaking balls. It's harder to do against low fast balls.
His normal swing can deal with high balls.

Vlad has never had that much protection behind him.
They are very careful with him with runners on bases and he hasn't been bad.

The other variables that no ones talk about are the humidors in all the parks and the different balls.
I am still mystified that Judge had his own balls instead of just writing a secret number on the ball with a marker or something.

scottt - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#432156) #

Delgado had a notebook and kept tracks of his ABs against various pitchers.
Guerrero doesn't have a system to predict pitches.

scottt - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 10:14 AM EDT (#432157) #

Btw, I find it weird that we still have Biggio on the banner.

scottt - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#432158) #

Wells was a corner outfielder that the Jays never moved out of CF.
I mostly remember him for slumping and missing time with recurring hamstring issues.

Leaside Cowboy - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#432160) #

L-C remembers Vernon always looked at the ball inside his glove after making a catch.

Vernon's walk-off homer against Mariano Rivera was memorable.

Let's have Handsome Danny Jansen on the banner.

Magpie - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 11:28 AM EDT (#432161) #

Delgado had a notebook and kept tracks of his ABs against various pitchers.

So did Tony Gwynn (and extensive video as well, long before anyone else) but that simply doesn't work for everybody. Some hitters are genuinely better off if they forget about all that, go up there with a clear head, an empty mind, and just "see ball, hit ball."

Or as Yogi once said "How am I supposed to hit and think at the same time?"

uglyone - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#432162) #

did i miss how do we know Vlad doesn't track his pitcher history?

Magpie - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 11:39 AM EDT (#432163) #

Wells was a corner outfielder that the Jays never moved out of CF. I mostly remember him for slumping and missing time with recurring hamstring issues.

He was a good centre fielder in his first few years on the job. He was much faster than people remember, much faster than he looked. Wells didn't have that slender, willowy build of so many great centre fielders. Wells was built like an NFL running back. But some of those guys are really fast.

He was actually pretty durable while he was here (you're definitely remembering 2008 - that was his injury year.) But oh my gosh, you never knew what you were going to get from one year to the next. In his last five seasons here, his OPS+ went 129 - 85 - 123 - 86 - 125.

There's some low yo-yo stuff, Leaside!

Magpie - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#432164) #

did i miss how do we know Vlad doesn't track his pitcher history?

I have no idea myself. Delgado used to talk about it, especially because Shawn Green was his buddy but Green had no interest whatsoever in doing anything similar.

hypobole - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#432167) #

Jays picked up Genesis Cabrera from the Cards for complex catcher Sammy Hernandez. Hopefully spells end of the line for Mitch.

Nigel - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#432168) #

That's the ideal acquisition for the upcoming batting helmet give away night in the LF bleachers!

Leaside Cowboy - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#432169) #

Vernon broke his wrist on a diving catch, which zapped his power for a while.

Lyle Overbay kept a log-book of his at-bats.

Ryan Day - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#432170) #

I would guess the Jays' analytics team can give players as much data as they want on opposing pitchers. We've all got the entire history of MLB on our phones, and Jays likely get more curation & customization than we do.

If Delgado was still playing today, he might not need his notebook any more.

hypobole - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#432171) #

Nigel, you have the most awesome negative spin on almost everything. Jays may have done this move today to make up for not letting you have a crack at Varsho at the plate yesterday. :)

Nigel - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#432172) #

Oh hypobole - it was a joke. He's got an awful hard hit % this year but I'm all in favor of the move. Bullpen arms yo-yo around from year to year and time to time and he's had success in the past. I think its a thumbs up move.

uglyone - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#432174) #

Jays acquire Genesis Cabrera for Sammy Hernandez.

Cabrera throws gas, but may also be a gascan.

Don't mind the upside play here.

Mike Green - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#432175) #

2023 deadline. In the beginning, there was Genesis.

hypobole - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 12:44 PM EDT (#432179) #

Yeah, Nigel I know it was a joke with an element of truth, which is one of the best kinds of jokes. My judgment depends on the corresponding move. DFA White will make it thumbs up.

ISLAND BOY - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#432181) #

I don't know if anybody who was watching the broadcast yesterday caught it, but until Vlad hit the home run, the Jays hadn't had an extra base hit in the series. If they had finished the game without one, it would have been the first time since 1978 that they completed a 3 game series without an extra base hit. I know, yawn, but still it's funny that it hasn't happened again in 35 years given the randomness of baseball.

hypobole - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#432182) #

I caught Hazel's graphic with all our puny singles. Being compared to the 1978 team that slugged .359 would not be a good look. That's the A's this year.

Gerry - Friday, July 21 2023 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#432192) #

Trent Thornton DFA to make room for Cabrera.

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