It's an AL East opponent. Gulp.
As we all know, the Blue Jays have gone a grisly 7-20 against the four teams in their own division. A little of that is bad luck - they've played six one-run games against division opponenets, and they've lost all six. But that sort of thing can easily happen in a tiny, tiny sample. They've still gone 7-14 in the rest of the games, and that's just bad. How and why?
Well, in those 27 games, the Blue Jays have scored 117 runs. That's 4.3 runs per game, which is slightly less than their season average. That doesn't look too alarming at first glance. After all, they probably shouldn't be scoring as many runs against the AL East as they do against the other divisions. They did, however, score 10 of those runs against a couple of Tampa Bay position players and if we eliminate those runs from the accounting they're averaging 3.96 runs per game, which is not so great.
But there have been even bigger problems than that. The Jays have allowed 140 runs in those 27 games, which is 5.18 per game and that's just asking for trouble. As is well known, when you ask for trouble, trouble generally answers your call. It's more than a run higher than their season average. Four pitchers in particular need to be singled out for their disappointing work. One, obviously, is Alek Manoah - 0-4, 6.34 in six starts speaks for itself. Strangely enough, Manoah's best start of the season came against an AL East opponent, when he spun seven innings of two-hit shutout against the Yankees. But the Jays lost that game, which provides a nice segue into the three pitchers who have really come up short in the division: Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, and Yimi Garcia. Collectively, these three high leverage relievers have gone 1-8, 7.84 against AL East opponents.
The Story So Far
It ain't pretty. It began with the Orioles paying a visit back in May.
Fri 19 May: Baltimore 6 Toronto 2 - Mountcastle's three run homer off Kikuchi staked the Orioles to a 3-1 lead in the third inning. A solo shot from Santander in the sixth (off Richards) and a two run homer by Frazier (off Swanson) in the ninth did the rest of the damage. Kyle Gibson pitched seven strong innings, scattering five hits and holding the Jays to just a single run.
Sat 20 May: Baltimore 6 Toronto 5 - An interesting, and ultimately frustrating game. This was the game when John Schneider finally broke up the Manoah-Kirk combination that had been in place for almost all of Manoah's major league career. And it seemed to work - Manoah, with Danny Jansen behind the plate, actually looked like a competent major league pitcher once again. Manoah pitched into the sixth, and came out of the game largely because his manager made a visit to the mound. Evidently, he'd forgotten that his pitching coach had already made a mound visit that inning. Naturally Jansen hurt himself and went on the IL before Manoah's turn came around again, and after going 0-3, 14.73 in his next three starts, Manoah was sent back to the shop for Major Fixes. As for the rest of the game - the Jays took a 5-2 lead into the eighth inning, with homers from Springer and Jansen leading the attack. But in the eighth, the Orioles put a couple of men on against Erik Swanson. Schneider summoned Jordan Romano for a five out save. Romano got one out, but Ryan O'Hearn tied the game with a three run homer. The Orioles cashed the Zombie Runner in their half of the tenth and Felix Bautista struck out the side to nail it down.
Sun 21 May: Baltimore 8 Toronto 3 - This was a close, absorbing game for most of the afternoon. A Chapman homer staked the Jays to an early lead, but the Orioles cashed a pair in the third. Ortiz led off with a double, Mullins followed with a single, and they both came around to score on a groundout and a failed fielder's choice. The Jays eventually tied it up against reliever Mychal Givens and we went to extras. The Orioles immediately cashed the Zombie Runner against Nate Pearson in their half of the tenth, but the Jays quickly did likewise in their half. So Yimi Garcia came out for the eleventh. He struck out Mountcastle, which seemed a promising start - it was Mountcastle, after all. Garcia then gave up base hits to each of the next four batters, allowing three runs to score, and after getting a second out, concluded his disastrous day by giving up a two run double to Mullins. And the Orioles had completed the sweep.
A few weeks later, the Blue Jays visited Camden Yards, and things went only slightly better.
Tue 13 June: Toronto 6 Baltimore 11 - It started well enough. Springer led off with a double, Guerrero singled him home, and Bassitt worked a scoreless first inning. But in the second, Hays doubled and scored on Frazier's homer to put the Orioles ahead. And in the third, everything went to hell. Santander led off with a single, and O'Hearn followed with a homer to put the Orioles up 4-1. The Orioles then loaded the bases for Gunnar Henderson, who cleared them with his first career grand slam. The Orioles would tack on three more against Francis and White and take an 11-2 lead. Over the last two innings, the Jays would score four times against the back end of the bullpen.
Wed 14 June: Toronto 3 Baltimore 1 - The Jays finally defeat the Orioles, thanks mainly to Jose Berrios, who provided 7.2 innings of three hit shutout. Kyle Bradish was pretty sharp for the Orioles, allowing only a Springer solo homer over his seven innings. The Jays tacked on two more in the eighth on a Kiermaier single and doubles from Merrifield and Bichette. They were needed, as Romano made things a little too interesting with two out in the ninth, allowing three straight hits and putting the tying run on base before fanning Frazier to end it.
As you probably know, I'm not actually here. I wrote this up a while ago. I don't know who's pitching. But I know this, and I assume John Schneider knows it too. Since joining the Blue Jays, Yimi Garcia has made 10 appearances against the Orioles. They've scored on him in seven of those ten games. It was Einstein who said the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. He was a smart fella, that Einstein. Listen to him, John.
Mon 31 July - 7:07 PM
Tue 1 Aug - 7:07 PM
Wed 2 Aug - 7:07 PM
Thu 3 Aug - 3:07 PM (Getaway Day!)
After the Thursday afternoon game, the Jays are flying off to Boston, the Orioles are flying home to play the Mets, and I'll be flying back to Toronto my own self.
As we all know, the Blue Jays have gone a grisly 7-20 against the four teams in their own division. A little of that is bad luck - they've played six one-run games against division opponenets, and they've lost all six. But that sort of thing can easily happen in a tiny, tiny sample. They've still gone 7-14 in the rest of the games, and that's just bad. How and why?
Well, in those 27 games, the Blue Jays have scored 117 runs. That's 4.3 runs per game, which is slightly less than their season average. That doesn't look too alarming at first glance. After all, they probably shouldn't be scoring as many runs against the AL East as they do against the other divisions. They did, however, score 10 of those runs against a couple of Tampa Bay position players and if we eliminate those runs from the accounting they're averaging 3.96 runs per game, which is not so great.
Split G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Belt vs AL East 18 58 49 5 14 3 0 3 8 0 0 9 24 .286 .397 .531 .927
Jansen vs AL East 23 82 72 11 19 4 0 6 16 0 0 10 12 .264 .354 .569 .923
Bichette vs AL East 27 120 114 12 41 9 0 3 15 2 1 6 19 .360 .392 .518 .909
Guerrero vs AL East 26 110 100 9 27 5 0 5 22 1 0 7 22 .270 .327 .470 .797
Springer vs AL East 26 116 103 18 26 3 1 5 12 4 1 13 17 .252 .336 .447 .783
Merrifield vs AL East 24 91 85 10 24 7 0 1 6 3 2 6 17 .282 .330 .400 .730
Espinal vs AL East 12 29 24 2 6 2 0 0 2 1 1 4 1 .250 .379 .333 .713
Kirk vs AL East 22 73 64 5 17 3 0 0 6 0 0 8 6 .266 .356 .313 .669
Varsho vs AL East 26 106 97 12 22 3 0 4 10 5 1 8 18 .227 .283 .381 .664
Kiermaier vs AL East 22 87 82 13 20 3 0 1 2 5 0 4 17 .244 .276 .317 .593
Biggio vs AL East 17 37 35 6 6 1 0 2 2 0 1 2 10 .171 .216 .371 .588
Chapman vs AL East 27 116 105 10 20 4 0 3 7 2 0 10 34 .190 .259 .314 .573
But there have been even bigger problems than that. The Jays have allowed 140 runs in those 27 games, which is 5.18 per game and that's just asking for trouble. As is well known, when you ask for trouble, trouble generally answers your call. It's more than a run higher than their season average. Four pitchers in particular need to be singled out for their disappointing work. One, obviously, is Alek Manoah - 0-4, 6.34 in six starts speaks for itself. Strangely enough, Manoah's best start of the season came against an AL East opponent, when he spun seven innings of two-hit shutout against the Yankees. But the Jays lost that game, which provides a nice segue into the three pitchers who have really come up short in the division: Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, and Yimi Garcia. Collectively, these three high leverage relievers have gone 1-8, 7.84 against AL East opponents.
Split W L ERA G GS SV IP H R ER HR BB SO HBP BF WHIP Hatch vs AL East 0 0 0.00 2 0 0 1.1 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 7 1.50 Mayza vs AL East 0 0 0.00 13 0 0 10.1 8 0 0 0 2 8 0 40 0.99 Pearson vs AL East 0 0 1.50 8 0 0 12. 9 4 2 1 2 12 1 47 0.92 Richards vs AL East 0 0 2.19 9 0 0 12.1 10 3 3 1 4 17 0 51 1.14 White vs AL East 0 0 2.45 2 0 0 3.2 3 1 1 0 0 3 0 14 0.94 Berrios vs AL East 3 2 3.35 6 6 0 37.2 34 14 14 7 6 36 3 150 1.06 Gausman vs AL East 1 1 4.15 5 5 0 30.1 29 15 14 2 6 36 0 124 1.16 Bass vs AL East 0 0 4.26 8 0 0 6.1 6 3 3 0 3 6 0 28 1.42 Bassitt vs AL East 0 2 5.59 3 3 0 16.1 21 14 10 6 3 16 1 74 1.49 Kikuchi vs AL East 2 3 5.66 7 7 0 35. 41 22 22 9 13 36 1 157 1.54 Manoah vs AL East 0 4 6.14 6 6 0 29.1 34 24 20 4 19 27 3 142 1.81 Romano vs AL East 1 3 6.43 8 0 3 7. 14 5 5 3 3 8 0 38 2.43 Cimber vs AL East 0 0 6.75 4 0 0 4. 7 3 3 1 2 0 0 20 2.25 Thornton vs AL East 0 0 6.75 1 0 0 1.1 3 1 1 0 1 2 0 8 3.00 Garcia vs AL East 0 3 8.18 14 0 0 12.1 18 13 11 3 4 15 1 60 1.82 Swanson vs AL East 0 2 8.49 12 0 0 11.2 14 11 11 5 7 9 0 56 1.88 Francis vs AL East 0 0 9.00 1 0 0 2. 4 2 2 1 0 2 0 10 2.00 Jackson vs AL East 0 0 9.00 1 0 0 1. 1 1 1 1 0 2 0 4 1.00 Pop vs AL East 0 0 18.00 4 0 0 2. 4 4 4 2 3 3 0 13 3.50
The Story So Far
It ain't pretty. It began with the Orioles paying a visit back in May.
Fri 19 May: Baltimore 6 Toronto 2 - Mountcastle's three run homer off Kikuchi staked the Orioles to a 3-1 lead in the third inning. A solo shot from Santander in the sixth (off Richards) and a two run homer by Frazier (off Swanson) in the ninth did the rest of the damage. Kyle Gibson pitched seven strong innings, scattering five hits and holding the Jays to just a single run.
Sat 20 May: Baltimore 6 Toronto 5 - An interesting, and ultimately frustrating game. This was the game when John Schneider finally broke up the Manoah-Kirk combination that had been in place for almost all of Manoah's major league career. And it seemed to work - Manoah, with Danny Jansen behind the plate, actually looked like a competent major league pitcher once again. Manoah pitched into the sixth, and came out of the game largely because his manager made a visit to the mound. Evidently, he'd forgotten that his pitching coach had already made a mound visit that inning. Naturally Jansen hurt himself and went on the IL before Manoah's turn came around again, and after going 0-3, 14.73 in his next three starts, Manoah was sent back to the shop for Major Fixes. As for the rest of the game - the Jays took a 5-2 lead into the eighth inning, with homers from Springer and Jansen leading the attack. But in the eighth, the Orioles put a couple of men on against Erik Swanson. Schneider summoned Jordan Romano for a five out save. Romano got one out, but Ryan O'Hearn tied the game with a three run homer. The Orioles cashed the Zombie Runner in their half of the tenth and Felix Bautista struck out the side to nail it down.
Sun 21 May: Baltimore 8 Toronto 3 - This was a close, absorbing game for most of the afternoon. A Chapman homer staked the Jays to an early lead, but the Orioles cashed a pair in the third. Ortiz led off with a double, Mullins followed with a single, and they both came around to score on a groundout and a failed fielder's choice. The Jays eventually tied it up against reliever Mychal Givens and we went to extras. The Orioles immediately cashed the Zombie Runner against Nate Pearson in their half of the tenth, but the Jays quickly did likewise in their half. So Yimi Garcia came out for the eleventh. He struck out Mountcastle, which seemed a promising start - it was Mountcastle, after all. Garcia then gave up base hits to each of the next four batters, allowing three runs to score, and after getting a second out, concluded his disastrous day by giving up a two run double to Mullins. And the Orioles had completed the sweep.
A few weeks later, the Blue Jays visited Camden Yards, and things went only slightly better.
Tue 13 June: Toronto 6 Baltimore 11 - It started well enough. Springer led off with a double, Guerrero singled him home, and Bassitt worked a scoreless first inning. But in the second, Hays doubled and scored on Frazier's homer to put the Orioles ahead. And in the third, everything went to hell. Santander led off with a single, and O'Hearn followed with a homer to put the Orioles up 4-1. The Orioles then loaded the bases for Gunnar Henderson, who cleared them with his first career grand slam. The Orioles would tack on three more against Francis and White and take an 11-2 lead. Over the last two innings, the Jays would score four times against the back end of the bullpen.
Wed 14 June: Toronto 3 Baltimore 1 - The Jays finally defeat the Orioles, thanks mainly to Jose Berrios, who provided 7.2 innings of three hit shutout. Kyle Bradish was pretty sharp for the Orioles, allowing only a Springer solo homer over his seven innings. The Jays tacked on two more in the eighth on a Kiermaier single and doubles from Merrifield and Bichette. They were needed, as Romano made things a little too interesting with two out in the ninth, allowing three straight hits and putting the tying run on base before fanning Frazier to end it.
Thu 15 June: Toronto 2 Baltimore 4 - A pair of solo homers from Jansen had the Jays up 2-1 in the fifth, but the Orioles tied it up and chased Kikuchi that same inning. Yimi Garcia got the first two outs in the sixth, but three straight singles, from Hays, Rutschman, and Santander, plated the go-ahead run, and that would be enough on this day.
Mon 31 July - 7:07 PM
Tue 1 Aug - 7:07 PM
Wed 2 Aug - 7:07 PM
Thu 3 Aug - 3:07 PM (Getaway Day!)
After the Thursday afternoon game, the Jays are flying off to Boston, the Orioles are flying home to play the Mets, and I'll be flying back to Toronto my own self.
