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The 2023 MLB draft goes Sunday at 7pm. All reports suggest it will be a strong draft. Many high school players in 2020, somewhat due to Covid, decided to go to school rather than sign up for a non existent minor league season. Those players are now eligible as college players.

The Jays first pick is at number 20. They have forfeited their second round pick due to signing Chris Bassitt. As a result the Jays second pick is in the third round at number 89.


At ESPN Casey McDaniel says the Jays could draft Dillon Head, a CF from an Illinois high school.

Head has been tied to the Jays for a while, with this pick and No. 25 to San Diego as the most likely landing spots. I think Toronto is still pretty open to other demographics, but I'm hearing mostly prep bats here, which also seem to be what will be on the board.


Keith Law, at the Athletic, says the Jays could select Blake Mitchell, a catcher from a Texas high school.

Mitchell is the best high school catcher in the draft class this year, which probably puts him in the first round automatically, although the potential as a left-handed-hitting catcher with power and plus defense also qualifies him. Mitchell starts with a very wide stance and still strides forward from there, which gave him some trouble with better quality stuff last summer and probably cuts off some of his natural power. His hands work well at the plate and he has the finish to his swing to drive the ball in the air, with 25-homer potential if he hits enough to get to it. He’s a plus defender with a plus arm who is a no-doubt catcher, which is good since he doesn’t have a clear alternative position. He’s nowhere near the same sort of prospect off the mound, but does work 90-94 mph, showing his arm strength, just lacking anything like an average second pitch.


Law also says the Jays could pick Aidan Miller, another high schooler, a Floridian 3B, or Enrique Bradfield Jr, a college OF.


Jim Callis, at MLB.com, suggests the Jays could take a high school pitcher.


None of these experts seem to have a good handle on what the Jays will do. There will be more mock drafts coming out later this week as we get closer and teams above the Jays start making up their minds. With a pick at number 20, the Jays will have several names on their board and will see what happens above them.

2023 Draft | 32 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Kelekin - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 12:17 AM EDT (#431144) #
I love draft time. The only article I ever co-wrote here at BB was about the draft (with Sam).

There are certainly some interesting names this year. I consider myself a draft genius (please clap) for suggesting in advance of our 2019 1st round pick we should take Corbin Carroll. But hey, at least we didn't pick Jackson Rutledge as expected.

Based on my one hour of research (why do teams pay for scouts when they could hire us internet readers?), my vote is for anything except a college middle infielder.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 12:30 AM EDT (#431145) #
does the # 20 pick immediately become a top 10 prospect in the system?
John Northey - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 01:11 AM EDT (#431147) #
What is funny is Manoah (#11 pick) is still the #1 guy for lifetime WAR for the 2019 first round at 7.8. Not much longer though unless he really is fully back as Adley Rutschman (#1 pick) is at 7.2, and Corbin Carroll (#16 pick) is at 4.9

The #2 pick was Bobby Witt who many saw as a super prospect but has just 2.0 WAR so far. The Giants used #10 on Hunter Bishop who was a top 100 prospect in 2020 and 2021 but not this year it seems. He hasn't played an inning this year after a 722 OPS year in A+/Rk last year with 117 K's in 360 PA as a 24 year old RF. Ugly.
Kelekin - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 02:42 AM EDT (#431149) #
Out of the 28 College players from that 1st round, 17 have negative WAR or have yet to make it to the majors. Out of the 13 High School players, all 6 that have made the majors already have a positive WAR (even more impressive considering the lost year of development). Only 3 or looking poised to not make it, with some of the others being pitchers having dealt with TJ/shoulder injuries.

Compare that to 2018: 19 High School players signed, 10 have made the majors, and only 2 have positive WAR (though some big names will turn positive soon enough, i.e. Grayson Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic). 20 College players were taken, 16 have made the majors, 13 of whom have positive WAR. The 4 who haven't made it yet include a center-fielder by the name of Kyler Murray - wonder what he's up to.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 06:24 AM EDT (#431150) #
It’s too bad this was the year the Jays gave up a second-round pick (by signing Bassitt). Word is this is a very deep and talented draft class.

Also, it sounds as if the Jays may be likely to choose a prep bat with their first pick.
scottt - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 07:25 AM EDT (#431152) #
This looks a lot like the 2021 draft in which they picked #19 and lost the number 2 pick for signing Springer.

That draft was pitcher heavy, mostly because the data on hitters was scant due to the pandemic.

In 2021, the took Hoglund because he needed TJ.

I figure they'll be over anyone that drops to them for any reason.
I still expect them to get at least 3 pitchers in the top 5.

bpoz - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 09:22 AM EDT (#431153) #
Manoah is a #1 SP. If he gets hot in the Playoffs like Juan Guzman did in 1992/93, M Bumgarner with SF, this often leads to a WS championship. The C is important as well. Borders and probably Posey in SF.

The Jays should make the playoffs quite often with 3WCs available.

So a high ceiling SP is always my preference. I am very willing to get a Bo as well. I don't know what his pre draft ceiling was.
Glevin - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 10:19 AM EDT (#431155) #
Draft looks good. Most of the names attached to the Jays I like. Would definitely prefer they don't take a pitcher or a catcher with first pick. I think pitchers are flukier and I like having them more in bulk and catchers as prospects just fail more often. Also, wouldn't want another contact hitting/pretty good fielding type of player. Give me a corner OF with a big bat or someone with real upside.
scottt - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#431159) #
They've done well developing catchers lately, so I don't have any reserve there.
Any players taken 20th and after carry a lot of risk.
The biggest thing for me is the "hit tool".
Power can be developed. Athletics are great but don't always translate to anything.
I prefer guys who have shown an ability to put the bat to the ball.

hypobole - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#431160) #
Most every mock has the Jays taking a prep bat.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#431161) #
best player available. that being said, I hope for an outfielder with several tools.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#431162) #
not sure, unlikely he's still on the board at # 20, but I can wish for Brayden Taylor, 3B, TCU.
bpoz - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#431164) #
Day 3 of 2022 had some nice picks. Stanifer, N Perry and S Hernandez. Hernandez is hitting well in the FCL. He started this year in the FSL 104 ABs.

With only 20 rounds last year the Jays signed many non drafted older pitchers. Example Al Pesto played in AA yesterday up from the FCL.
hypobole - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#431166) #
FG with their 1st mock:

Pick: Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest HS (FL)

Indications are that Nimmala, who struck out a ton this spring, is falling. Teams likely to present a soft landing for him are the ones that care most about his pre-draft age; Toronto and Cleveland have to be considered potential landing spots for this reason.

FWIW, Longo at FG has Nimmala ranked 29th, Kiley McD at ESPN still has him at 11.
Nigel - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 01:55 PM EDT (#431167) #
A middle infielder with big strike zone control issues? How very 2022. With the exception of Roden, the purported emphasis in 2022 on the hit tool has really not panned out for last year's draftees.
Michael - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#431168) #
In terms of value from 2018 and 2017 drafts, I think that is pretty normal. IIRC an approximate rule of thumb was only about half of the first round of the draft in makes the major leagues/has any positive WAR season, and the odds go down significantly past the first round (with high variance). A non-trivial number of those who make it/have positive WAR season are barely worth replacement level, and then odds are a few will be break out stars.

If you think about it in terms of career length and roster position and what not "a typical draft" for a team in total likely produces you one starting player (I.e., one of your 9 position players or top 3 starting pitchers), one fringe player (I.e., back of rotation pitcher, reliever, or backup position player), and one cup of coffee guy (I.e., someone that rides the AAAA shuttle but gives you a few weeks of play in a season). That's a typical haul. Of course you'd trade the last two in a heartbeat for the top one being star quality rather than just average starter quality. And there's high variability so some draft may give you no one, and some draft two or three players.
Glevin - Thursday, July 06 2023 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#431169) #
"If you think about it in terms of career length and roster position and what not "a typical draft" for a team in total likely produces you one starting player"

That's generally correct AFIK but picking high changes things significantly. Top-5 are much more likely to make majors/make impact. Top-10 more so, etc...
Gerry - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 08:03 AM EDT (#431209) #
Keith Law has a new mock draft out today and it includes a surprise.

He has the Jays selecting shortstop Jacob Wilson. Here is his comment:

I’ve heard them mostly with college guys, and there’s some chatter that last year’s first-rounder, high school pitcher Brandon Barriera, showing up much heavier this spring and hitting the IL with an elbow issue almost immediately has shifted them away from prep pitching.
Gerry - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 09:00 AM EDT (#431210) #
Kiley McDaniel has a new mock draft out. Here is his Jays pick:

Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami

I'm hearing mostly college bats here, and that makes sense as that's what the board is delivering. Morales is unique within this player demographic because he offers 30-homer upside with real feel for contact and defensive value.
Gerry - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 09:03 AM EDT (#431211) #
Every mock draft so far has the Jays picking a different player. In part thats what picking at 20 does, but it is also a sign of a strong draft. There are plenty of options for each team.
scottt - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#431212) #
Barriera was signed with an elbow issue. That's why he shut it down.

He's 6'1 and was labeled "athletic", so I wouldn't expect a weight issue.
He was known for an amazing slider.
bpoz - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 09:19 AM EDT (#431213) #
I have been reading the comments for the 2022 draft. When asked Shane Farrell said they were confident that they could sign all the players chosen in the top 10 rounds. It is nice to hear that but then he could not really say anything different.

There is a list of top 250 draft prospects. C Carrol & G Henderson are 2 of the best picks from 2019 IMO. I don't know how close to their pre draft ranking they were actually picked.
hypobole - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#431215) #
"Barriera was signed with an elbow issue."

Source?
hypobole - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 10:51 AM EDT (#431219) #
Kiley McD at ESPN with his 3rd mock. Echoes KLaw's college bat note.

Yohandy Morales, 3B, Miami

I'm hearing mostly college bats here, and that makes sense as that's what the board is delivering. Morales is unique within this player demographic because he offers 30-homer upside with real feel for contact and defensive value.
Marc Hulet - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#431237) #
Wilson would be a nightmare. He hits for average but doesn't walk much, has little power, and doesn't run well. He can likely stick at shortstop if he doesn't slow down more and his dad played in the majors... But not a first rounder in my eye.
Gerry - Friday, July 07 2023 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#431241) #
As I said in the top 30 discussion in January, this front office have not drafted well. They have been able to trade away some guys but that doesn't change the fact that those players have not been successful, yet.

Even the much talked about new approach last season doesn't appear to be paying dividends yet.
scottt - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 10:23 AM EDT (#431270) #
They have drafted a lot better than the previous front offices.

2015 was barren. 2014 was a disaster considering they had the 9th and 11th pick. Conforto went at 10th. Trea Turner at 13th.

In the AA days, there were more opportunities for marginal pitchers, so guys like Graveman and Mayza have been able to emerge, but this front offices likes relievers with experience. That's not really an issue.

If anybody thought Jansen was the catcher of the future, they would have picked him up before the 16th round.

D. J. Davis in 2012? Right in front of Corey Seager.
Tyler Beede in 2011? Right in front of Kolten Wong.
Deck McGuire in 2010? Right in front of Yasmani Grandal and Chris Sale.

How far do I need to go to find the last time the Jays took the best player available. Or something close

In 2016, they took T. J. Zeuch. That's actually not that bad when you look at the total draft.

1. Mickey Moniak
2. Nick Senzel
3. Ian Anderson
4. Riley Pint
5. Corey Ray
6. A. J. Puk
7. Braxton Garrett
8. Cal Quantrill
9. Matt Manning
10. Zack Collins
11. Kyle Lewis
12. Jay Groome
13. Josh Lowe

It takes a long time to evaluate the results of a draft and the lost 2020 has impacted a lot of prospects.

scottt - Saturday, July 08 2023 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#431271) #
I totally agree that the glove is not the tool to focus on in the first round.
Hit tool and speed and a style that doesn't prevent the development of power.

Gerry - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#431316) #
BA and Law have updates but no changes to the Jays selection. There appears to be great uncertainty at the top of the draft which is filtering down to the later picks. Draft goes tonight.
hypobole - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#431321) #
Jays pool is about $6.5 million. Yankees one of only 4 teams with less at $5.3 million.

Rays, Orioles, Red Sox all have between about $10.9 to $10.3 million. At least one of those 3 teams will almost assuredly end up with a better draft than the Jays or Yankees.
Gerry - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#431351) #
Kiley McDaniel's final mock has the Jays taking Tommy Troy, 3B, from Stanford.

Yet another different name for the Jays.
hypobole - Sunday, July 09 2023 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#431358) #
Longo at FG is super high on Troy, ranking him #8 with a 50 grade.
"Troy was a really fun little high school prospect whose inability to play shortstop was a big part of why no team would pay him to eschew his commitment to Stanford. He went to school and raked, slashing .339/.411/.607 while transitioning from second to third base in his draft year. Troy is athletic enough to play all over the diamond, including center field. He's a flat out 80 runner who was timed from home to first in the 4.0-4.1 range at the Pac-12 tournament, enough speed to give center a try if a pro team is so inclined. Troy is also a dynamo at the plate, with impressive power and strength for a compactly-built hitter. He's capable of hitting for all-fields power and has fantastic plate coverage. This is a complete player and, similar to Zach Neto last year, should be a quick-moving everyday player, potentially a super-utility type who plays a few different positions but is in the lineup every day."
2023 Draft | 32 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.