Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Always an angel, never a god

The season is half over, and the Red Sox finally make their first visit to Toronto.


Can't say I've missed them.

The Bostons have lost five in a row, and scored a total of four (4) runs in their last four games. This is the type of thing that always makes me nervous - I suspect I'm about to see a team that's simply due to play a little better, due to get a few cheap hits, catch a few lucky breaks. The Laws of Competitive Balance dragging everyone back towards .500.... the Law of Large Numbers saying whatever it says....

Hey, it was just two or three weeks ago when Minnesota brought their five game losing streak to town...

The Red Sox are pretty good at scoring runs, but their offense has been far more effective in the famous Friendly Confines. The Red Sox are scoring 5.52 Runs per Game in Fenway, and just 4.13 on the road. The HRs and BBs are about  the same - they just don't get base hits (.289 BAVG at Fenway, .228 on the road.) They really have just five good hitters. One is DH Justin Turner, and the other four all bat left-handed: third baseman Rafael Devers and the three outfielders, Masataka Yoshida, Jarren Duran, and Alex Verdugo. And yet, as a team, the Red Sox hit LHP about as well as they hit RHP, which seems odd. (Well, Devers and Yoshida don't really have big platoon splits, Duran usually sits against LH pitching, and whatever Verdugo loses against southpaws Turner picks up.)

The Red Sox give up just as many runs as they score - only Kansas City and Oakland have allowed more, and we're not too sure how serious those teams are about playing competitive baseball. The Red Sox have allowed quite a few more runs at the Friendly Confines, although there isn't a whole lot of difference in the opposition's batting lines: .253/.328/.425 at Fenway, .254/.305/.436 on the road. Nick Pivetta and Corey Kluber both began the year in the rotation. Both posted ERAs above 6.00 and were sent to the bullpen. Kluber has since been shut down with a shoulder problem, and who saw that coming? Also on the IL with a shoulder problem is Chris Sale, and who saw that coming?  And because they're the Boston Red Sox and don't deserve nice things, they've also lost starter Tanner Houck, who was hit in the face by a line drive two weeks ago. Houck, who despite being a Red Sock person surely didn't deserve that, just underwent surgery that inserted a plate into the right side of his face. Yikes. Young Brayan Bello has been their best starter - the Jays will miss him - along with veteran LH James Paxton. After starting a grand total of six (6) games over the last three seasons, Paxton has shaken off the rust and has been pitching very well indeed.

As you probably remember, the Jays went into Fenway at the beginning of May and things went very, very badly.

The Story So Far

Mon 1 May: Toronto 5 at Boston 6 - Jose Berrios took a 3-2 lead into the sixth inning, but homers from Duran and Valdez drove him from the hill (we all thought Schneider's hook was a little slow) and put Boston ahead 5-3. The Jays tied it up in the eighth, but Verdugo greeted Jordan Romano with a walkoff homer leading off the bottom of the ninth.

Tue 2 May: Toronto 6 at Boston 7 - The Sox took a 3-0 lead against Yusei Kikuchi, but the Jays jumped all over Tanner Houck for six runs in the fifth inning, Varsho's three run HR being the big blast. Boston got two runs back in their half, and tied it when Wong homered leading off the sixth against Zach Pop. Two innings later, Wong was leading off the eighth against Erik Swanson, and it was deja vu all over again - Wong's second of the game (fourth of his career) provided the final margin of victory.

Wed 3 May: Toronto 3 at Boston 8 - Solo homers from Varsho and Guerreo staked Alek Manoah to an early lead, but after breezing through the Boston lineup first time around, it slowly fell apart. Boston got two runs on four hits, a wild pitch, and Manoah's own error to tie it up in the fourth  The Jays retook the lead in the fifth, but after a Chapman error Manoah hit a batter, gave up three more hits, and Boston put three runs on the board. They then tacked up single runs against each of Bass, Richards, and Pearson.

Thu 4 May: Toronto 5 at Boston 10 - Boston finished the sweep, as Kevin Gausman submitted one of his occasional Outright Stinkers, getting roughed up for five runs in the second inning. It was 8-1 Boston in the fourth inning when Gausman was given the rest of the day off.

Payback is required.

Matchups

Fri 30 June - Paxton (3-1, 3.19) vs Berrios (8-5, 3.60)
Sat 1 July - Crawford (2-4, 4.01) vs Kikuchi (7-2, 3.75)
Sun 2 July - Whitlock (4-3, 5.15) vs Gausman (7-4, 3.01)
Boston at Toronto, June 30-July 2 | 108 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
uglyone - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#430914) #
Jays were off to a very nice 18-10 start, were outscoring their opponents by almost a run per game, had won 7 of their last 8 series....

....and then went into Fenway against a scuffling crappy last place team and absolutely humiliated themselves, losing all 4 games and getting outscored by 13 runs.

That series is probably the biggest reason why this first half has been just ok instead of really good.


And now, after an extended cold streak, the Jays are finally kind of getting back on track and have won their last 3 series, and get to host a boston team that is regressing back to where they should have always been and probably would have always been had the Jays not boosted their season so much.

Of course, if they faceplant again, then BOS gets right back in it and the jays' 1st half looks plain bad instead of even kinda ok.

they better show up this series. with scuffling boston and awful CHW and DET on tap before the break, they have a chance to go into the break on a real high note and comfortably over a 90 win pace if they don't screw it up.
Nigel - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#430915) #
As much as any series in July can be a big series, I think that this really is a big series. I don't actually see a big difference in quality between the Jays and the Red Sox but the one thing that is certain is that the Jays cannot be the 5th place team in the division. Plus, I despise this franchise's fanbase like no other and I never thought I would dislike a fanbase more than the Yankees'.
scottt - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#430916) #
I don't know how you interact with Red Sox fans, but the Yankees fans I hate are the ones who lives in Ontario.
I don't mind the Red Sox fans in the maritimes or the Tigers fans in Windsor.

Gerry - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#430917) #
Ryu to pitch in the FCL on July 4th. FB velo at 88 currently.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#430918) #
Boston Red Sox: the agents of Beelzebub.
uglyone - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#430919) #

Hyun Jin Ryu will make his first rehab appearance July 4 in either complex league or single-A.
Velo has been up to 88 mph so there’s a ways to go, but apparently he’s in “phenomenal” shape, down ~30 pounds.
Barring setbacks, he’s probably about a month away from helping #BlueJays

— Scott Mitchell (@ScottyMitchTSN) June 30, 2023
greenfrog - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#430920) #
I’m gonna guess that Ryu’s velo when he returns will be in the 88-90 range, maybe 91 once in a while. In other words, a touch below where he used to be.
Jonny German - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#430921) #
I don't actually see a big difference in quality between the Jays and the Red Sox

You must be looking at a different version of the Red Sox than me. Position by position I’d take Devers over Chapman and Yoshida over Varsho, otherwise the Jays are better up and down the roster.
Nigel - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#430922) #
In addition to 3B, I’d take the entirety of the Red Sox OF over the Jays’ and Turner over the DH de jour of the Jays. I do think the Sox pitching staff isn’t as good as the Jays.
hypobole - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#430923) #
Not sure how much it matters whether Ryu is 88 or 91. Being able to regain command of his pitches is the most crucial aspect that will determine his success or failure.
uglyone - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#430924) #
that's a pretty bold call imo.

last calendar year, for a quick snapshot, in a general order of best to worst hitter:


* SS Bichette (25): 728pa, 143wrc+, 6.2war, 5.5war/650pa
* DH Turner (38): 584pa, 139wrc+, 3.7war, 4.1war/650pa

* 3B Chapman (30): 681pa, 124wrc+, 5.2war, 5.0war/650pa
* LF Yoshida (29): 305pa, 126wrc+, 0.9war, 1.9war/650pa

* 1B Guerrero (24): 734pa, 123wrc+, 1.6war, 1.4war/650pa
* 3B Devers (26): 627pa, 109wrc+, 2.5war, 2.6war/650pa

* RF Springer (33): 645pa, 120wrc+, 3.5war, 3.5war/650pa
* RF Verdugo (27): 684pa, 121wrc+, 3.4war, 3.2war/650pa

* C Jansen (28): 360pa, 117wrc+, 2.6war, 4.7war/650pa
* SS Story (30): 99pa, 116wrc+, 0.8war, 5.3war/650pa

* DH Belt (35): 350pa, 105wrc+, 0.3war, 0.6war/650pa
* 1B Casas (23): 359pa, 107wrc+, 0.3war, 0.5war/650pa

* 2B Merrifield (34): 519pa, 111wrc+, 2.7war, 3.4war/650pa
* C McGuire (28): 254pa, 102wrc+, 1.5war, 3.8war/650pa

* LF Varsho (26): 634pa, 101wrc+, 3.9war, 4.0war/650pa
* 2B Arroyo (28): 340pa, 101wrc+, 0.5war, 1.0war/650pa

* CF Kiermaier (33): 247pa, 113wrc+, 2.0war, 5.3war/650pa
* CF Duvall (34): 143pa, 156wrc+, 1.2war, 5.5war/650pa


* UT Espinal (28): 331pa, 88wrc+, 0.9war, 1.8war/650pa
* UT Refsnyder (32): 275pa, 119wrc+, 1.3war, 3.1war/650pa

* UT Biggio (28): 326pa, 84wrc+, 0.6war, 1.2war/650pa
* UT Duran (26): 388pa, 87wrc+, 0.5war, 0.8war/650pa

* C Kirk (24): 509pa, 94wrc+, 1.7war, 2.2war/650pa
* C Wong (27): 246pa, 82wrc+, 0.5war, 1.3war/650pa



IMO the jays have a solid advantage offensively that only gets bigger when you factor in defense.
hypobole - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#430925) #
1st big trade. Rangers acquire Aroldis Chapman.
Kelekin - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 07:51 PM EDT (#430926) #
I'll take Scott Barlow.
Kelekin - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#430927) #
(and if Oakland wants to give us Paul Blackburn, I won't complain)
greenfrog - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#430928) #
I’ve said this before, but it sometimes feels as if whenever the Jays SP puts up zeros for four or five innings to start the game, the Jays offense “matches” him by putting up zeros over the same stretch.
greenfrog - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 08:03 PM EDT (#430929) #
In Ryu’s best seasons in the majors, he was throwing 91-92. Can he still be effective throwing 88? Maybe, but the margin for success is probably smaller.
Chuck - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#430932) #
Some surprisingly nice defense from Boston tonight.
uglyone - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#430933) #
***turns on game***

***jays down 4-0, Trent Thornton on the mound***

***turns off game***
Nigel - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 08:47 PM EDT (#430934) #
Did Buck just say playing your own division less was actually a detriment to the Jays? I’m speechless with the stupidity of that comment.
uglyone - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#430935) #
at least they showed some nice fight this time at home.

oh wait, no they didn't.
Kasi - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 10:18 PM EDT (#430936) #
Kinda hard to win when your top four go 0 for 15.
John Northey - Friday, June 30 2023 @ 11:42 PM EDT (#430937) #
Frustrating game. When Vlad flew out to the fence and the guy jumped and got it (later they said it went 405 feet) you just knew this wasn't likely to be the Jays night and it wasn't.

Just goes to show how a team vs team record is really meaningless year to year. Last year 16-3 vs Boston 125 to 55 for runs for/against. This year 0-5 19-37. Sigh. Well, the SF series started poorly but the Jays won it in the end, lets see if they can do that vs Boston (not betting on it).
Crawford vs. Kikuchi tomorrow
Whitlock vs. Gausman on Sunday.

Fingers crossed for good stuff to come.
hypobole - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 02:30 AM EDT (#430939) #
Ryu averaged under 90 ever since he came to Toronto. 2014 was the last time his FB averaged over 91.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 07:46 AM EDT (#430941) #
In Ryu's dominating years with the Dodgers (2013, 2014, 2019), his FB averaged 91.0, 91.6, 90.9.

In his first two years in Toronto, he averaged around 90 MPH (89.9, 89.8).

So if he's throwing 88, that is a potential problem (although as I've said, he might be able to succeed at that level of velocity). Obviously he's still in the recovery process, so he may yet get back to his former velo.
scottt - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 09:05 AM EDT (#430942) #
At best Ryu would be a guy who could go 5 innings giving up 3 runs or less.
They would probably load the lineup with RHB against him, which has some value.

It's likely he'll have to throw fewer 4-seamer, keeping those slightly out of the zone.
Loss of velo shouldn't affect the change/curve.

Could go either way.


SK in NJ - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 10:44 AM EDT (#430943) #
The Jays need some offensive improvements and don't have many positions that they could realistically upgrade on. CA, 1B, SS, RF, and CF/LF (wherever Varsho is playing) are locked in. The other spots are occupied by impending FA's who are all producing well (Chapman, Merrifield, Kiermaier, Belt). The only thing I could think of is trading Kiermaier and replacing him with a more offensive oriented left fielder, maybe someone like Tommy Pham from the Mets, but I can't picture Atkins pivoting like that. Sticking with this same offense and hoping the hitting with RISP improves may not be enough to push them over the top. They need more power/home runs in the lineup.
hypobole - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#430944) #
Payback is required.

Magpie, it seems Boston definitely feels this way after losing 16 of 19 to the Jays last year. On the bright side, no matter what happens, the Jays ain't gonna lose 16 to Boston this year. :)
Nigel - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#430945) #
Buck wishes they could though!
greenfrog - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 11:36 AM EDT (#430946) #
Somehow the Jays need to get to a place where their hitters are making life more difficult for opposing pitchers. Right now it seems too easy for pitchers to carve up the Jays lineup. A lot of easy outs, short PAs, hitters expanding the strike zone. Over the last 14 days the Jays batters have a 93 wRC+ (18th in MLB) and a 6.5 BB% (28th in MLB).
Gerry - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#430947) #
Trent Thornton optioned. Thomas Hatch up.
Nigel - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#430948) #
The offensive malaise has been going on for a while. In the past 30 games the team has scored 115 runs good for 25th in MLB.
Gerry - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#430949) #
Alek Manoah will start for new Hampshire on Monday night.
Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#430950) #
Alek Manoah will start for New Hampshire on Monday night.

Might this be considered a bit pre-mature?

Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#430952) #
The staff ace is ready to go for the holiday matinée:

Canada Day - 156 - La fête du Canada

Boston tee-party. Let's have it. In the name of the King!

scottt - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#430953) #
Let's hope it's not one of those Canada Day games in which the ump heavily favors the visiting team. 
greenfrog - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 04:11 PM EDT (#430954) #
The Cardinals are crushing the Yankees 11-0 in the sixth inning. Good to see.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 04:28 PM EDT (#430955) #
Can't say I'm liking this Brandon Belt hitting third experiment.

Man do we ever need another bat.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#430956) #
Hitters 3-9 in the lineup so far: 0/10 with a walk
Kasi - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#430957) #
Would I like Teoscar or Gurriel over Belt? Sure but it’s like a .5-1 win difference. The issue isn’t that. The issue is that our star players just aren’t performing. Like Bo is trying but he’s not getting much backup. Vlad, Chapman, Kirk, Varsho, Springer, etc just need to be better.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#430958) #
I think this is going to be a year where the Jays win around 88-91 games, probably earning a WC spot, and it's just going to feel bad getting to that point, because the team is often very frustrating to watch.
Kasi - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#430959) #
Vlad has probably cost himself a 100 million at this point.
lexomatic - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 06:03 PM EDT (#430960) #
It really feels like this team just puts too much pressure on itself and messes up when it matters. Trying to live up to people's expectations instead of just playing. Have to see if they figure it out.
greenfrog - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#430961) #
Talk about a leverage situation. Down 6-5 in the eighth, two out, runners on second and third, 3-2 count. Too bad Biggio couldn't come through.

On a positive note, the sequence in that inning means that Kiermaier, Springer and Bichette are due up B9.
BlueJayWay - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#430962) #
Biggio was maybe a foot away from a go-ahead double. But of course it was a RISP at bat so the ball had to go foul.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#430963) #
And that's why you don't want Belt hitting 3rd.
Nigel - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#430964) #
All of Belt, Varsho and Biggio are automatic outs against a pitcher with velocity. It’s a little hard to watch actually. Like watching amateur theatre gone wrong.
92-93 - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 06:37 PM EDT (#430965) #
Well, at least they showed some fight.

In two of his last three appearances Swanson has really deflated the Jays chances of coming back in a one-run game.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, July 01 2023 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#430966) #
Nobody really at fault there. Bo probably too far down the line to stop...Would still have been thrown out without the hesitation. Had the ball not been hit right at Verdugo it's a tie game. Bichette misses a game tying home run by a hair. Biggio misses the tying double by a couple feet.

chris_jays - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#430967) #
What has the general consensus been on Belt this year? He has a 118 wRC+ to date and has been worth 0.5 WAR but I'd have to imagine the Jays wanted more out of that spot for 9.3M?

I can't see him coming back next year and wonder how the Jays elect to fill that DH role.
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#430968) #
2024 free agents:

Shohei Ohtani, Charlie Blackmon, Joc Pederson, Nelson Cruz, A.J. Pollock, Rhys Hoskins, Michael Brantley, Hunter Renfroe, Joey Gallo, Randal Grichuk, etc.

Cincinnati has a $20 million option for Joey Votto, with a $7 million buyout.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 09:13 AM EDT (#430969) #
Wonder what Ohtani will get in free agency at this point. If he was a great hitter before this year, he's been otherworldly in 2023 (183 wRC+ and 437 wOBA). He's struggled a bit as a pitcher but has still been excellent in that role (1.9 fWAR). He's not quite 29 years old.

$500 million? $600 million? Let's just hope he stays on the west coast.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#430970) #
Another Japanese player to watch this off-season is Yoshinobu Yamamoto. If the Jays can't land him (because he wants to play in the US), he's another player they should be hoping ends up in a non-AL East division.

In 11 games in Japan this season he's 8-3, 1.73, 83.1 IP, 59 H, 1 HR, 11 BB, 88 K.

Here's Fangraphs' preseason report on him:

"Yamamoto followed up his 2021 leap, in which he became NPB's best pitcher, with a nearly identical '22 season. Once again he worked just shy of 200 innings in 26 starts (nearly 7.2 innings per start) while posting the best ERA (1.68), xFIP (2.31) and K-BB% in NPB, leading the league in strikeouts (205, 32 more than second place Roki Sasaki) and WAR among pitchers. Yamamoto retained the little velo bump he first showed in 2021 and still sits 93-95 mph, reaching back for some 6s and 7s during starts and peaking at 99 during 2022. That's happened while Yamamoto has retained his terrific command. He's a 70 on-mound athlete who attacks hitters and locates his secondary stuff almost at will. This is especially helpful for the viability of Yamamoto's cutter; his rainbow curveball and low-90s splitter (his best pitch and most-deployed secondary) have plus movement and don't need the help. Yamamoto is also super advanced, and can alter the shape of his fastball to make it cut, sink, or ride. Polished and talented in equal measure, Yamamoto is slated to meet MLB's foreign international free agent requirements after the 2023 season when he'll be of age and have enough foreign pro experience to be a true free agent. He'd immediately slot into the middle of a contending rotation with no. 2 starter upside and therefore comfortably fits among the top 30 or so prospects in MLB."
uglyone - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#430971) #
the unbeatable boston red sox.

humiliating stuff.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#430972) #
Blue Jays are gonna win this one.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#430973) #
I just can't get over how many times this team gets thrown out on the bases.



Chuck - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 02:51 PM EDT (#430974) #
I love Buck Martinez’s definition of “borderline pitch”. It’s a close pitch out of the strike zone if thrown by a Blue Jay and it’s a close pitch in the zone if thrown against a Blue Jay. I get that announcers are homers but that doesn’t make the audience incapable of more objective scrutiny.
mathesond - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 03:15 PM EDT (#430975) #
I think definitions of borderline pitches would be greatly enhanced if Madonna's 'Borderline' was playing in the background.
hypobole - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 03:45 PM EDT (#430976) #
What has the general consensus been on Belt this year?

Better than it was this morning. :)
greenfrog - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#430977) #
His wRC+ is now 127, which seems pretty good for a DH not named Ohtani.
Four Seamer - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 03:52 PM EDT (#430978) #
Now Swanson on the other hand…
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 04:01 PM EDT (#430979) #
This team is more frustrating than the 2013 edition.
Finding ways to lose and collectively playing way below their potential.
They’re going need another hot stretch like 2021 if they’re going to make it
Magpie - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#430980) #
This team is more frustrating than the 2013 edition.

More frustrating than a team that went 74-88? I suppose, if you stipulate that 2013 was crappy rather than frustrating.

Swanson has probably pitched too often, but I don't know what else Schneider could have done. He's not going to trust Hatch or White in a game situation. Every time Pearson pitches on consecutive days he gets lit up. And now here comes Richards, who worked pretty hard yesterday.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 04:29 PM EDT (#430981) #
It’s almost enough to make you want to retire as a baseball fan.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#430982) #
Schneider could have sent Romano out for 2 innings. I am not suggesting that would have worked out better, but he has only thrown 1 inning since June 24.
99BlueJaysWay - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#430983) #
I don’t make that stipulation. They had a lot of big expected producers miss a lot of time. Bonifacio, Cabrera and Reyes played under 100 games. Rasmus, Laurie and Bautista played under 120. Encarnacion and Lind missed 20 games. Josh Johnson had less than half a season.

This year basically everyone is healthy, and they’re losing anyway
lexomatic - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#430984) #
Wasn't watching. How come Gausman got pulled so early
Nigel - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#430985) #
I really don’t know what Schneider could have done either. His circle of trust is really only three (Romano, Mayza and Swanson) and only one of them is really pitching well. This team is a starter, a thumper and a high leverage reliever short. That’s makes you a fringy playoff team not a real contender.
BlueJayWay - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#430986) #
No AL East series for a while now!
uglyone - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#430987) #
Our Ace vs their bullpen day and we can't win.

What a bunch of losers.
James W - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#430988) #
How come Gausman got pulled so early

Pitch count.
Petey Baseball - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 04:48 PM EDT (#430989) #
It's been fun to watch Gausman. Bo is always a treat to watch hit. But yeah, it's frustrating to watch them struggle offensively when the pitching has been good enough (IMO) for them to be 5-10 wins better than they are.

christaylor - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#430990) #
I'd bet it won't happen but the best thing for the Jays in the near term (next 2-3 years) is to do deal a couple of pieces (Chapman, KK or Merrifield) for decent controllable pitching depth.

Not enough to squash any hope of the playoffs as WC but enough to build on before Vlad and Bo get expensive.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#430991) #
Vlad's getting expensive? He's worth much less than Wander Franco is getting for his free agent years.
Kasi - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#430992) #
Vlad is just not very good and is the biggest issue with the offense. When your superstar is scuffling well that’s an issue.
scottt - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#430993) #
Feels like a typical Canada Day weekend series.

scottt - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#430994) #
That's the result of the circle of trust paradigm.
You have to use middle relievers for middle relief and give everybody regular work or the bullpen will suffer from overuse/underuse.

Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#430995) #
Chicago deep-dish pizza. (Kalamata olives.)
Gerry - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#430996) #
Manoah is pitching in NH now. A single and a walk in the first inning, 17 pitches, 10 strikes.
Gerry - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#430997) #
2nd inning, hit batter, single, walk. 3K's through 2.
Mike Green - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#430998) #
2 hits, 2 walks and an HBP through 3 innings in double A is not a sign that Manoah is ready.it does qualify as peogress over his last outing though.
hypobole - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#430999) #
K, K, K 4th.
greenfrog - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#431000) #
Pretty darn good start through 4IP, considering how awful Manoah’s season has been. Couple of singles, couple of walks, one HBP. Eight strikeouts. 65 pitches.

Let’s see how he handles the next couple of innings.
Gerry - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#431001) #
Manoah's done after five innings, ten K's.

I think he needs at least one more minor league start before thinking about coming back to the majors.
85bluejay - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#431002) #
The Boston Red Sox have launched a petition to play more games against the Blue Jays.
Nigel - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#431003) #
In early May I formed two “way too early” opinions - that the year end AL Central winner would have a less than ,500 record and that the Jays might be the 5th best team in their division. Unfortunately, I haven’t seen anything since to dissuade me from those opinions:(
Leaside Cowboy - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 10:11 PM EDT (#431004) #
Tampa Bay leads Baltimore by 5½ games. Kansas City 30½ games out. Oakland 33½.

14 games separate 2nd-place (Baltimore) and 13th (Chicago White Sox.)

A dozen teams lumped together.
John Northey - Sunday, July 02 2023 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#431005) #
As the year goes on I am wondering more and more if the Jays might be tempted to go nuts and sign Ohtani - $500-600 million over 10+ years is the requirement, but DH will be open (can't see Belt coming back) and while 5 guys are signed for the rotation, we know Gausman does better on extra rest, as do most pitchers including Ohtani. Plus as a 6th man in the rotation we'd still be able to have an 8 man pen.

Sigh... not too likely, but one has to figure he wants to win and the Jays with him would be instant favorites while the Angels without him drop to sub 500 and would have to start debating trading Trout. The Mets are a mess and the Yankees fans are known for turning on guys (see A-Rod for the biggest recent example) as are Boston fans. Dodgers have to be the favorite by a mile in getting him this winter.

More likely is what the Jays need to think about - Belt, KK, Ryu, Chapman, Merrifield all are free agents (plus Cimber). So DH/CF/3B/2B-LF all need to be resigned or replaced. Rafael Lantigua is hitting well in AAA (270/413/407) but is 25 so marginal as a prospect at that age and has gone up the system slow but steady but never a top 100. Otto Lopez was a potential but his 248/305/304 after looking so good in spring has killed it. Addison Barger also looked great in spring but a 219/336/307 line doesn't cut it. Orelvis Martinez is back in the discussion with his 224/332/502 line at 21 in AA (May 10th to now 299/415/632). Leo Jimenez also is on the 40 man (AA 22) and hitting a solid 284/356/421. Between all of those I don't see a lock for 2024 at 3B/2B. I doubt the Jays want to go into next year with Biggio/Espinal as their only options either. So if the Jays make a trade I expect it to be for a long term piece to cover 2B this year and 3B next year - who I have no idea, but that seems most likely then try to resign Chapman or Merrifield on a 1-2 year deal, and resign KK to play CF. I could imagine Horwitz taking over DH mostly with others getting time there too. For this year though trades will be tough to do as 2B is really the only spot I could see a big improvement happening even with Merrifield going to the ASG like Espinal did last year. I can't see the Jays doing any trades though beyond backups (a RH power hitter would be nice to split DH with Belt).

Best news is Manoah looking like himself in AA tonight. He even hit a guy! I wouldn't be shocked if he starts for the Jays in 5 days (giving Gausman that valuable extra day of rest). That would be a big relief if he is ready. Next is getting Green up here and Ryu, thus making the 6 man rotation a thing for the rest of 2023, along with a 7 man bullpen.
Four Seamer - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 12:22 AM EDT (#431006) #
Happened to be in Anaheim this week and popped into a game at Angels Stadium - just a ho-hum game from Ohtani, punctuated by a moon shot home run that I didn’t actually see (was in search of churros for my daughters) but knew from the sound of the ball off the bat it was long gone. Anything is possible but unless he wants out of Anaheim I’d be stunned if the Angels didn’t just extend him a blank cheque to resign - every marketing initiative in that park is centred around him, from the marketing of Japan’s #1 cat treats to the free Ohtani-endorsed moisturizer samples. Trout is a first ballot hall of famer but pretty clearly a secondary option as far as monetization of the two players is concerned.
John Northey - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 12:57 AM EDT (#431007) #
I can see the Angels going nuts to keep him (and others going nuts to get him) but from what I've read about him #1 is winning and Anaheim just ain't gonna be that. The Dodgers are all about that if he wants to stay out west (as I suspect he does) but they don't need the extra marketing. The Mets have cash and marketing needs but are playing terrible and I know if I was Ohtani I'd stay far, far away from that.

Bottom line for Ohtani has to be a contender where he can be comfortable playing/living for the rest of his career. Current and former players from the team need to sell him, the teams record this year and in the past few will matter, I suspect he prefers full houses to empty ones thus killing off places like Florida where fan support is pathetic at best. West coast is better than east, helping Seattle, Dodgers, SF. Ohtani reached the majors in 2018 so how a team did pre-then won't be as big a deal as how they've done since. No idea where he stands on political issues - if he is anti-LGBTQ+ then Texas/Florida/etc would be attractive, if pro then they aren't and Toronto becomes far more attractive. If the Jays decide to chase him down I expect guys like Vlad & Bo to be important in selling him on it, as would be Ryu (Korean, so he also would've had a preference for the west coast when he signed here - he had Ha-Seong Kim sold on coming here but the Jays wouldn't guarantee him zero minor league time...sigh...how nice he'd look right now with gold glove defense and a 111 OPS+ for under $10 mil per year this year and next). Fun speculation after an ugly weekend.
Michael - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 05:16 AM EDT (#431009) #
Ohtani quote from the media this week was that $550M/11 was substantially too low for signing amount. That is a pretty crazy contract that is very hard to be worth that and puts a lot on not being injured and still being effective (and on some that pitches no less). Clearly when he plays like he has this past couple of years he's worth that (by MLB standards), but that is a lot of money over a lot of time.
bpoz - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 07:27 AM EDT (#431010) #
In 1 run games our record is probably ok. The question is who that is close to us will get favorable 1 run wins going forward.
bpoz - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#431011) #
The Jays have increased payroll a lot starting in 2020 because their goal was to make the playoffs or at least be in the playoff race until the end for a good revenue. They have met that goal which is a credit to ownership and the FO.

With payroll already high but should reduce due to expiring contracts I wonder what next years payroll level will be?

We probably lose 4 relievers. Bass plus 3 others. This probably only reduces payroll by $10-15mil. But their replacements could be cheaper. The farm has a nice quantity of relievers in AAA/AA progressing well. Hopefully some of these relievers will be knocking on the door during the 2nd half this year.
ISLAND BOY - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 11:02 AM EDT (#431013) #
" I wouldn't be shocked if he starts for the Jays in 5 days"

I would be. I can't see Manoah being fixed in one short development league outing plus a game against AA hitters. If he gets called back up immediately and gets shelled again, then what do you do? Send him back down?

I really think Manoah should pitch at least a couple of games in AAA and get the tweaks that he needs fully ingrained. Some have suggested excess weight as a problem, others the pitching clock as an adjustment, but I have no idea if there is one thing but suspect it is a variety of factors. Much as the Jays need the Manoah of last year, the Manoah of this year has already cost them games in the standings and there's no use in doubling down on that.
bpoz - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#431014) #
I am expecting Manoah to make another AA start this week.

Interest is starting to develop in Sunday's draft. I expect it to build.
Magpie - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 12:25 PM EDT (#431015) #
I am expecting Manoah to make another AA start this week.

Me too, which will presumably happen on Friday. And in that case, there's no need to rush this thing. You've got the All-Star Break after this weekend, and after that the next time the team will need its fifth starter is Saturday the 22nd, almost three weeks from now.
GabrielSyme - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 12:51 PM EDT (#431016) #
Just noticed that the Jays are not scheduled to play today, a holiday Monday. There's an easy way to maximize revenue for MLB by ensuring that the Jays get home games on Canadian holidays and away games for American holidays, but for some inexplicable reason, they seem utterly incapable of doing so - or unwilling.
John Northey - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#431017) #
My bet would be a AAA start next for Manoah (July 8th), then one more due to the ASG break (July 13th) then for the Jays on July 18th vs the Padres.

Post break schedule:
Arizona: Gausman, Kikuchi, Bassitt
Day Off
Padres: Manoah (maybe), Berrios, Gausman
@Seattle: Kikuchi, Bassitt, Manoah
@Dodgers: Berrios, Gausman, Kikuchi
Day off...etc.

I put Kikuchi in the 2 hole due to the Jays wanting to break up Gausman/Bassitt. If Gausman is used in the ASG then they might flip Bassitt and Gausman there. Manoah & Berrios might flip too depending on how much rest they want for each. When/if Ryu returns I could easily see a 6 man rotation happening.

This year 4 days rest: 250/321/427 4.33 ERA vs 5 days: 217/294/365 3.11 ERA
  • Gausman 4: 4.98 ERA vs 5: 1.13 ERA
  • Bassitt: 4: 3.38 ERA vs 5: 4.24 ERA
  • Kikuchi: 4: 3.49 ERA vs 5: 4.75 ERA
  • Berrios: 4: 3.59 ERA vs 5: 2.68 ERA
  • Manoah: 4: 10.13 ERA (5 starts) vs 5: 3.75 ERA (7 starts)
6+ days off: very limited, just 1 or 2 starts each, net ERA of 6.40 as a group over 9 starts 45 IP (mostly their first starts of the season).

Kind of surprised I didn't know Manoah did so well on long rest vs so horrid on normal. 3 of our 5 do well with extra rest (Gausman, Berrios, Manoah) while 2 don't (Kikuchi & Bassitt). 1001 other factors could be in there for each case, but it is an interesting thing none the less.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 03:50 PM EDT (#431018) #
Speaking of Shohei Ohtani, he is scheduled to pitch tomorrow afternoon in San Diego.

The Padres would be an attractive destination. Conceivably, Las Vegas?

Elvis Presley watches Blue Jays baseball on television.
Magpie - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#431019) #
3 of our 5 do well with extra rest (Gausman, Berrios, Manoah) while 2 don't (Kikuchi & Bassitt).

This season, yes. But over his career, Bassitt has actually been a little better with five days rest rather than four, and a little better than that with six days or more. Not by a lot. And Berrios has been much the same however.

Kikuchi is a bit of a surprise, if only because Japanese pitching rotations often feature more rest for the starters. He never started more than 26 games in a (140 game) JPPL season - that year he led his staff in starts and IP.
John Northey - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#431020) #
For All-Stars kind of neat to see Lourdes Gurriel Jr get in. His peak was May 3rd to May 29th 388/449/800 (WOW) over 89 PA. But from May 30th to now he has cooled down (that was his peak day for OPS). 180/234/350 over 107 PA 25 games. FYI: Opening day to May 2nd he hit 265/303/382 over 109 PA. No idea what happened there, he shifted from 'meh' to 'WOW' to 'oh crap'. Overall Line: 270/321/489 for a 120 OPS+ vs career 117 OPS+. Basically the same guy he was here but had that killer month to jump his numbers.

Kind of reminds me of Chapman - Opening Day to April 12th he was Bonds on steroids+ - 489/539/851 over 52 PA. April 14th to May 2nd pretty good at 283/394/500 over 71 PA. May 3rd to now pretty crappy at 202/276/354 over 221 PA. Overall line 262/340/459 123 OPS+ vs career 120 OPS+, so basically again the same guy as always just with a killer peak there.

Of note for Varsho - the guy people are a bit annoyed with as he has had a blech year with the bat. His peak month is July with an 869 OPS lifetime, next best is August at 777, then Sept/Oct at 742. So hopefully he will go on a 'wow' stretch like Chapman and Gurriel have had to balance out the bad stretches so far.
greenfrog - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#431021) #
A 117 career OPS+ (and 120 this year) seems pretty good, especially considering the lost development time early on in his career.

Streakiness can be frustrating to watch but what matters is the player’s final slash line. 117 OPS+ career (LGJ) versus 100 OPS+ (Varsho) is a pretty big difference in hitting performance. Of course, Varsho is a much better fielder. The problem is that there are situations against a tough LHP when you’d like to have a player like LGJ starting in left field and Merrifield starting at second base (with Varsho available to take over for defensive purposes at some point during the game).
greenfrog - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#431022) #
Like Julian Merryweather, ex-Jay Joel Payamps is having a good 2023 season:

3-1, 2.06, 39.1 IP, 32 H, 8 BB, 43 K (5 HR allowed)

It would be nice to have one of those guys this year instead of Cimber. Relievers are hard to predict (as we've seen with Richards this year).
Petey Baseball - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 09:05 PM EDT (#431024) #
greenfrog I also watched the Cubs-Brewers game and saw those two. All we needed was a Rafael Dolis sighting with all that ex Blue Jay bullpen content.

My how the mighty have fallen. Josh Donaldson hitting .150 and being booed mercilessly in New York.

Meanwhile in the Bronx, Anthony Rizzo hasn't hit a home run since May 20th. Stanton has a .657 OPS. Carlos Rodon hasn't thrown a pitch all year. Judge hasn't played in a month. And they're still ahead of the Jays. It's hard to believe.

hypobole - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#431025) #
June batting. 2 groups. 6 Regulars between 96-115 PA's, 6 Semi's between 45-58 PA's.

Regulars by wRC+; Springer 121, Vlad 119, Varsho 112, Bo 101, Merrifield 100, Chapman 75.

Semi's: Belt 132, Espinal 117, Biggio 115, Jansen 111, Kirk 73, KK 34.

Overall 102 wRC+, our worst month.

Chapman's struggles were often mentioned, but KK had a terrible June with the bat and Kirk was pretty poor as well.
greenfrog - Monday, July 03 2023 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#431026) #
I still think the Jays are going to pull themselves together and finish in one of the WC positions (no guarantees--they probably need to win at least 44 of their remaining 77 games to do this). There have been some improved performances in the farm system of late and I expect the front office to use some of those chips to acquire an upgrade or two. Add Ryu and Green and Manoah (eventually) and a bit better luck and the team will be stronger in the second half.
BlueJayWay - Tuesday, July 04 2023 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#431028) #
And they're still ahead of the Jays. It's hard to believe.

I'm not, really. The Yankees are like the Rays in that no matter what happens, they always seem to find a way.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 04 2023 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#431029) #
In the 2022 1st half if I recall correctly the NYY built up a very big lead. They still won 99 games on the year but I think their winning % in the 2nd half declined. Roughly around this time last year I think Montoyo was replaced. Again if I remember correctly.

SD and Seattle are doing poorly. Those 2 GMs are generally the most active with trades. I expect action from them.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 04 2023 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#431030) #
In the 2022 1st half if I recall correctly the NYY built up a very big lead.

I'm not sure exactly how they are managing to remain competitive this season with all the injuries. Who knows when Judge and Rondon are even coming back. Bader is always an inch away from returning to the IL. Stanton is stinking when he's even healthy. LeMahieu could be seriously into his decline phase. Donaldson may be toast. Too many AB are going to Calhoun and IKF. Other than Cole, the SP are nothing to brag about.

This does not look like a playoff team.

Boston at Toronto, June 30-July 2 | 108 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.