Been a long time since unleashing one of these.

In all honesty, I haven't been following the local baseball squadron this season as intensely as usual (I work nights and when I don't, playing the sport is infinitely more fun than watching, always will be). However, from peeking into the discourse surrounding this team with championship aspirations, I figure things have been rolling along smoothly? No ace pitcher catastrophes of any kind, soul-searching debates about the face of the franchise, clumsy alienation towards a large portion of the fanbase, or calls for the head of the new-ish manager? Excellent. Figured an 162 game baseball season at the highest level would progress seamlessly without any hitches.

Okay snark aside (I'm sorry but it's just too fun), I've watched enough Blue Jays ball this year to at least have a few thoughts. Or, call them theories at the very least. Flimsy, flimsy theories... but this is my very brand of theory after all. We will get to the Jays eventually, but on this lazy Monday where there is no baseball at all (at least not involving the Blue Jays or its affiliates) and the weather in Toronto is legit terrifying, I thought it interesting to look around the league first and look at some other stories happening at the moment.

Disclaimer! At this current juncture of the season, I have no interest in talking about the rest of the American League. Why? I still don't think Texas is this good, the AL Central is a hot potato of mediocrity, and of course the reality of the East clearly tortures all of us enough on the daily.

Lets begin!

   

Naturally, I have to glance at my own pre-season predictions if I am to fairly make a mockery of any team here (lest I be the one most deserving of said mockery). Well, here was my conclusion about the team with the largest payroll in baseball:

Allergies are not easy to shake, especially the embarrassing ones. While even in a "everything clicks just right for us scenario" Atlanta is still the best team in this division... the first half of this 2023 Mets season has been *insert hilarious catastrophe* here. This is a team comfortably with a losing record, a negative run differential, are over a dozen games back of the division lead and oh yeah once again are running the largest payroll in the history of the league. Hey fellow Blue Jays fans, anytime you're feeling like this Toronto franchise is utterly hopeless... may I suggest a place to give some perspective?

So what is going wrong exactly? Well, lots. To my credit, back in April I described the Mets as a top heavy team loaded with stars but seriously lacking useful depth beyond those big names. Also... a lot of those same stars are old. I mean, older than me at least... which in 'active baseball player' terms is old! Damnit. Regardless, most of those key veterans that were so key to the 100+ win 2022 squad have run face first into that wall of age.

Removing 40 year old Justin Verlander from the Astros pitching lab/Faustian bargain seems to have reverted him back into the late-Tigers version of Verlander (a league average starter, not Cy Young favourite). Outfielder Starling Marte (34) has seen his extra base power dip significantly (a .176 ISO into a .082), Carlos Carrasco's bounceback 2022 (15-7, 3.97) now looks like the exception against 2021 and this season (except in 2021 at least he was striking out people), and even Mad Max Scherzer has been merely very good instead of his usual brand of holy hell freaking awesome.

They're 12th in the NL in ERA and 11th in OPS. They lost 34 of 55 games after starting the season 14-7. This... might just be a bad team. And a very old one. Mets gotta Mets.

Atlanta is ridiculous and Miami... yeah right. Also ridiculous, in as different a way any way can be. So lets talk Phillies for a moment. If you'd told me Trea Turner would actually be bad, Aaron Nola's ERA would be over 4 and Rhys Hoskins hasn't even played a game yet... I'd have said "2022 was a nice run, wonder if they sell some expiring pieces". Instead, they've been tangoing just above .500 all season, thanks to Nick Castellanos roping doubles all over the yard and some sneaky bullpen contributions (remember Andrew Vazquez?). They're not really in that different of a situation now than they were last year around this time. Wouldn't bet on all that happening again but also... who knows? They've done it and been there before. That stuff does count.

If these Cincinnati Reds are actually for real... and trust me even as a fan I have serious subjective doubts they are... then come on. There simply isn't a better story in all of baseball, or a more fun team to watch.

After a brief 2020 playoff appearance, Cincinnati quickly ditched nearly all of their expensive players in the most "recouping value? Whatever just go away!" method possible (also known as pulling an Oakland A's). However, part of this purge involved shedding Trevor Bauer from their organization... a move the truly righteous Baseball Gods have clearly smiled upon. 2021 and 2022 were brutal years for Reds baseball, but not without glimmers of faint hope: second baseman Jonathan India establishing himself as a good everyday player (with excellent hair), pitcher Hunter Greene showcasing his 100+ fastball deep into starts, or closer Alexis Diaz (little brother of Edwin) bursting onto the scene as an unhittable strike throwing machine.

I didn't think they'd lose 100 games again in 2023... but this here is wild stuff, man. Three major things immediately come to my mind. First: the Tyler Mahle trade. Mahle had been a terrific mid-rotation starter for Cincinnati and at the time of the trade with the Twins it seemed like yet another case of the Reds just not wanting to pay a good MLB player anymore. The season-ending injury to Mahle aside... turning Mahle into Spencer Steer (who had never even been a top 100 prospect) looks like a real damn solid piece of business. I doubt Steer is a star in the making, but he sure looks like a good hitter with on-base skills and useful versatility that can slot into the 5-7 chunk of any MLB lineup.

Second: Elly de la Cruz. Dear god. Elly de la Cruz.

Third: you probably know where I'm going here. Despite all the drastic slashing of payroll, the Reds kept Joey Votto around while dispatching nearly all of his longtime teammates. Maybe it was out of respect to a franchise icon, or maybe nobody else in the league wanted anything to do with that contract for a late 30s first-baseman in clear decline, or maybe Joey simply wouldn't waive his no-trade clause regardless. He does genuinely seem to love Cincinnati, they drafted him two decades ago and it's been his only major league home for 16 years now... and also who the hell knows what Joey Votto is really thinking at any time. As a huge fan of the dude, I'd have been satisfied if this late career arc was simply him being this oddball fun personality on a rebuilding Reds team... occasionally chipping in but essentially in the current Miguel Cabrera role.

Cabrera is actually only five months older than Votto (both born in 1983) and the great Miggy has a single home run to his name thus far in 2023 (in 155 plate appearances). About two weeks ago my dad (I think you all know his work) came to watch me play and between innings we briefly chatted about Joey Votto... agreeing he is a likely eventual hall of famer but I mused "if only he had one more great or iconic season in there". At the time, he'd looked awful in a minor league tuneup and then seemingly just disappeared for a month (the eventual joke being that he'd become a schoolbus driver during this span). I'd figured this was the end... the shoulder injury had zapped him of his remaining skill and a fabulous career was all over beyond the official word.           

Foolish me. Because the thing is.... Joey Votto... still... bangs.

I mentioned Miguel Cabrera as having only one home run all season... Votto hit three in his first five games back. Watch the video too because they weren't wall scrapers either: deep shots halfway into the right field bleachers or a dead shot over the centerfield wall. He turns 40 on September 10th (great day) and of course he isn't going to slug .800 the rest of the season... but if he even somewhat resembles that 2021 version of himself that slashed .266/.375/.563... that's a huge addition to a suddenly ridiculously fun and compelling team. Adding someone with the sheer exhilarating electricity of De La Cruz and then this legend? After a serious injury at his age? These are bonkers storylines! Within the span of a month the Cincinnati Reds went from a bland franchise just slightly more watchable than the Rockies or Nationals... into the talk of baseball and a potential playoff team. A potential division champion, even. I haven't even mentioned how good outfielders T.J Friedl and Jake Fraley (who I have totally confused for each other) or rookie shortstop Matt McLain have been. They're 5th in the National League in runs scored, and Elly hasn't even played 20 MLB games yet.

But... I have my doubts the winning ways can continue. Or at least, considering the state of the division they play in... these are doubts-ish. Their starting pitching has been comically bad: Nick Lodolo was an exciting young arm in 2022 but opposing batters had an OPS of 1.012 against him this season until he was mercifully put on the IL (he could be back in August), Graham Ashcraft and Luke Weaver have combined for nearly 130 innings (all starts) of about 7.00 ERA ball, Luis Cessa provided unspeakable results in his seven starts (do not look them up, trust me) before being cut loose, and Derek Law (yep, that one) has been used as an opener. Twice. So yeah. Doubts aplenty with these Reds. Damn though... they are ridiculously fun... and in a division this putrid... with that explosive offense the crown is there for them to snatch it, and what a tale that would be. Who in the world said that in April... or even late May.

Speaking of that division: man what a[it was at this point of writing the article that the writer, perhaps supernaturally akin to the concept of disaster thanks to the subject matter, noticed his toes feeling oddly damp. Quickly he realized something outside had clogged the storm drain and water was flowing in from underneath his front door, creating a rapidly expanding puddle throughout a significant portion of the apartment. With haste he abandoned his baseball thoughts, swept/mopped up with old T-shirts as much invading liquid as he could, and moved fragile objects away from the seeping danger. Once the action had concluded, those specific baseball thoughts were long distant in the corners of his memory... and so he summed them up with: injuries are killing the Brewers, Pirates actually bad after all (15-34 since the 20-8 start), Cubs exactly what I thought, Cardinals LOL. 

Seriously though, my place did flood while writing this. And it's rather fortunate I was awake late at night doing this so to notice in time. Baseball! Sometimes it can even (indirectly) save your worldly possessions.  

In my April season preview I said something to the likes of "Arizona is finally an interesting team again with multiple young players, but are probably a year or two away from being a presence." Well... can I get a half point on that one? How about .3 of a point? Ah? Ah??? Bah. Lets ditch decimal chatter and talk about the team with the second best(!) record in the National League. Strangely, on the offensive side of things it's been the veterans mostly carrying the affair. First baseman Christian Walker (32) is having a well-timed career year, while the streaky Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Evan Longoria in part-time duty, and retro Blue Jays trade-candidate Ketel Marte have all been simply marvelous. Alas those kids, outfielders Alek Thomas and Jake McCarthy, have been pretty bad (hitting for no power whatsoever) as has young brief friend Gabriel Moreno... getting raves by defensive metrics but he has 11 extra base hits all season. That's one more than Cavan Biggio.

The real headline in Arizona baseball, aside from their two excellent starting pitchers Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly... or their unknown star young shortstop Geraldo Perdomo, or their very effective "bullpen by committee" which has three different pitchers (Andrew Chafin, Miguel Castro and Scott McGough) all pitching well and with at least a half-dozen saves each, or their.... okay yeah the headline is Corbin Carroll. Holy geez moly murphy this dude is a ballplayer. I think Arizona knew what they were doing by not giving into our dream mock trades over here in Blue Jay land.

Carroll is absurd... like a Create-A-Player you name after yourself. "I'm gonna be a guy who hits for crazy power but also steals a bunch of bases and can draw walks!" Just ridiculous. I've only watched highlights of DBack games (mostly early in the season to see how Gabby and Lourdes looked) and just watching Carroll go around the bases is like... I dunno, trying to follow a bolt of lightning go somewhere. This is an unreal player, on course to be one of the game's upper tier superstars and hopefully should that trajectory proceed he gets that due. If he was a Yankee we'd hear about him daily and likely hate him already, so lets be thankful for that at least.

Is Arizona for real though? Unlike the morbid NL Central or the simply pathetic AL Central.. the NL West is a real division with real contenders. To pat myself on the back (my apartment just flooded so cut me some slack), I think my idea of the Dodgers finally losing some of their magic is coming true. You can only keep filling holes and hitting jackpots on replacements for so long, and the season-finishing injury to Gavin Lux in the spring has really hurt their middle infield.

Of course, the Dodgers (as I write this) are 43-34 anyhow, three games back of the lead and still have Freddie Freeman (bless him) and Mookie Betts in their lineup every night. They're second in the NL in runs scored, and strangely it's been the pitching that's been the weakness so far. The ageless Clayton Kershaw is having his best season in half a decade and Tony Gonsolin continues to mystify... but free agent add Noah Syndergaard has been completely dreadful, Julio Urias was okay but now hurt, Dustin May excellent but now extremely hurt yet again.. and outside of Evan Phillips and Graterol the bullpen ain't scaring a whole lot of people either. This is still a good team that can (and probably will) get it's junk together to make the playoffs, possibly even take the division as usual, but my suspicions were correct. This isn't a juggernaut anymore. Perhaps that might actually help them, even. Lower the expectations, make them sneakier than usual.  

I was high on the Giants coming into the season, thinking they could be a clever Wildcard pick. They've also done well to make me look good. Also... they play in a top 3 park in basebal, so they get all the bonus points. San Francisco didn't start well (6-13) but they've hit a stride and have been consistently murdering opponents for a month and a half now. In a way, the Giants have a bit of the Tampa Bay Rays moxy to them... except if the Rays actually spent money but then all their expensive players were the most disappointing ones. This is a good second place team in a tough division... and their best hitters are Thairo Estrada, LaMonte Wade Jr., Patrick Bailey (he's their everyday catcher!) and the DH version of Joc Pederson (who does seem to just mash now in the Bay). How? Why? I don't ask these questions.... because unlike the Rays, they play in a beautiful park with fans who actually turn up to games, and have nicer jerseys to boot. Giants-Rays World Series, a battle of the unheralded. You heard it here first.

Annnnnd yes, the Padres. Again... we're pretty damn frustrated as Blue Jays fans at the moment but hey. The optimists in Toronto still rightfully say "lots of season left", but in San Diego it's becoming a prayer in 2023. This has not gone according to plan... a lineup that many (myself indeed) forecast as possibly the most fearsome in any league has simply not delivered, sitting 11th in runs scored and 10th in OPS against the National League. Soto and Tatis Jr (once returning) have been as superstary as advertised, but Manny Machado and Jake Cronenworth have fallen from all-star heights into below league average production, catcher Austin Nola has been unplayable with his feeble attempts to hit (.142/.259/.192 in 49 games) and Matt Carpenter (still a personal favourite) definitely misses Yankee Stadium and whatever power-up mushroom they give you when you're a seemingly washed veteran putting on Bronx pinstripes. The Padres have reason for hope, however... despite this squad completely middling through an entire half-season. Their pitching, particularly the starters, have been excellent: Snell, Wacha and Musgrove have all been exceptional, while Darvish and Seth Lugo likewise aren't far behind that assessment. They've allowed the fewest runs in the league, and unlike say the Miami Marlins, have enough serious offensive talent to start making that a factor instead of an odd quirk. They will have to do such a thing soon, obviously. This could be like the 2015 Toronto Blue Jays: a super talented team that gets it together and stomps everybody for a couple months... or it just never comes together and the year fades into forgetability. What? That's not a word??? Bah! Stupid flood.

Speaking of not having a word...

While this has been a frustrating Blue Jays season (despite the cozy winning record), as discussed above I do think if this were more like the Mets or even Padres situation... we'd all be losing our minds a heck of a lot more, right?

Why such frustration? Why so serious? Well, there's a sense among some of the fanbase that this is the final kick at it before the window closes, if it hasn't already because 2021 was really the year. Uh... we sure about that? I mean, Matt Chapman is a real nice player and not easy to replace should he depart... but if he's the only key piece missing from the 2024 version of the squad, don't quite see them completely dropping into the 75 win range. Also, do people completely remember 2021? Granted I've tried to forget it myself, but despite the team becoming totally unbeatable near the end that was one damn frustrating season. The constant bullpen implosions (I still curse Brad Hand to this day), the Josh Palacios error in Detroit, the Marcus Semien game where he threw away the routine play with nobody on base that would've ended it, sparking an opposing rally. Marcus freaking Semien did that!

Maybe a lot of the angst comes from the team not being "as fun" as previous seasons. Gone is the flair and looseness that Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. provided. I do miss those guys (Teo especially) and there is a sense of boring stagnation watching this team when they're having one of those stretches where they simply can't score runs. It's tedious to behold, I agree. However, there are a few things I do enjoy seeing that, even if this team was truly bad (and they're not), would still keep me coming back to watch.

The outfield defense, when it's Varsho, Kiermaier and Springer, is just fabulous. Varsho plays out there like a charging bull, like it wouldn't surprise me to see him break through a particularly flimsy outfield fence one of these days. For a guy not blessed with elite speed, his ability to close in on a ball is really impressive. Springer isn't particularly quick anymore (I doubt, unless in case of emergency, we see him play CF again) but he plays right-field I think pretty well and very smartly. Multiple times this season I've seen George make excellent reads and throws from balls off the wall, his first step rarely betrays him, and most importantly RF does seem to be keeping the dude from crashing into things or other players and hurting himself. As for Kiermaier... what a treat. Just, wow. One of the most spectacular outfielders to ever wear the uniform, surely. A compilation of his jumps alone should be in Cooperstown or baseball academies everywhere. Whether Chapman leaves or not, but especially if he does, this is a guy you need to bring back.

As for the other enjoyable things... while Bo Bichette continuously hitting balls into right field is delightful, watching Kevin Gausman pitch has become must see television to me. It's sort of an odd style of pitching to behold: he's got the weird leg kick, the hair flying everywhere, chewing the piece of gum to the point it begs to finally be released from its mortal coil... and then he throws this one pitch that drops like an elevator in a horror movie. He's clearly a command and control guy, since he's always around the zone and he needs to command his fastball and great splitter to have any success... but he isn't exactly crafty with it? Gausman, aside from the occasional slider, doesn't really change or mix speeds on his pitches all that often and aside from dialing up the heater sometimes, it's like he doesn't really need to. With him, it's all about the location. Being able to spot his fastball, even when it's 92-94 one day and 97 another, spotting it on any corner in the zone at will is so key, and makes that hilarious splitter so devastating. Sometimes I chuckle more when a batter takes the 95 right down the middle for strike three, because you know exactly what he was thinking and afraid of. Gaus is an unusual pitcher and clearly a really damn good one, on top of seeming like a thoughtful and genuine good dude along with all that.

Anyhow... as for the team itself and their fortunes for the rest of the season... well it's gonna take a little energon, and a lot of luck. Playing some bad teams will surely help, and they seem good at mostly kicking the crud out of those guys. Eventually though, they're going to have to beat some AL East teams. There simply isn't any other way around that. I see no reason they can't do this, but also... this team has been blessed by being pretty darn healthy all season, particularly on the pitching side. Continuing to bank on that forever is a fool's wager.

One final note unrelated to any team that I want to talk about: the new rules! While Rob Manfred gives off that "I'm a soulless ghoul and not even trying to hide it" vibe, I think this is a rare one you can put in the win column for ol' Ghouly here. The pitch clock has not been the distraction I feared it might be, and while the quicker pace of play pitch-to-pitch doesn't make much of a viewing experience difference to me, the sharp decrease in overall game time does and has been absolutely terrific. This will all be especially interesting to see when the postseason rolls around, as many playoff games despite their obvious intensity can devolve into a grinding slogs in recent years. 

The larger bases I don't think has really done much of anything, at least that my untrained, uninformed and un-researching eye can tell... but I do like the limited pickoff rule. It just adds a nice little sliver of strategy into the action: a pitcher has to consider whether a second throw over is worth it, or risk that "do or die" on the third attempt. Neat stuff... I'm sure Andy Pettitte would've hated it but then we'd probably just see his great "A" move more often had he played in this era.     

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Anyhow! That's all from me for now. I swear I come into these with the honest intentions of writing something short, but then my apartment floods and my train of thought starts to runaway on an endless track. Might try to do a few more of these as the season goes on, should anything catch my interest, but until then...