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The Jays begin a nine game road trip with a visit to Camden Yards.


The Orioles, on the off chance you hadn't noticed, are really good. In fact, just one team in the majors has a better record and it's just the Orioles' bad luck that they play in the same division.

This is not a new development. On May 20 of last year, the Orioles sported a 16-24 record. Business as usual. And on the next day, Adley Rutschman made his major league debut. The Orioles went 67-55 (.549) the rest of the way.

They've been quite a bit better than that this year, but we should note that they've fattened their record by playing lots of games against the four worst teams in the AL (Oakland, Chicago, Detroit, Kansas City) and the worst team in the NL. The Orioles have played those five teams 22 times already, and gone a very slick 18-4. The Blue Jays have kicked the crap out of those teams as well (8-2), but they've only made 10 appearances on the Toronto schedule.

They're good at scoring runs. Camden Yards has been playing as something of a pitcher's park in 2023 (the Orioles are scoring and allowing more runs on the road) - but only two AL teams (Texas and Tampa Bay) are scoring more frequently. We can be happy, I suppose, that the Orioles will be without one of their best players, centre fielder Cedric Mullins, who's been out for the last ten days with a groin strain. The Baltimores found Aaron Hicks lying on the scrap heap where the Yankees had unceremoniously dumped him. Someone seems to have surgically removed the fork that was sticking out of his back - Hicks has taken over for Mullins in centre field and hit .345/.472/.586 in his first 10 games as an Oriole.

And as always there's Ryan Mountcastle, who has actually been one of the Orioles' weaker bats this season (notwithstanding the fact that he leads the squad in HRs and RBIs.) Mountcastle was out of the lineup this past weekend with an illness, but we may be sure that the appearance of the Blue Jays on the schedule will have him feeling better in a hurry. Mountcastle came into this season with a lifetime mark of .322/.381/.634 against Toronto, with 14 HRs in just 42 games. He'd hit three of those homers against Yusei Kikuchi in just nine at bats. And in the first meeting between the two teams this season, they matched up again. Kikuchi wisely walked him in the first inning (two out, no one on base), but two innings later Mountcastle came up to bat with a couple of runners aboard. Kikuchi tried to get him out, with the usual result - a three run homer.

And then - a miracle happened. Mountcastle went hitless the rest of the day, he went 0-4 the next day, and 0-5 in the series finale. Is it possible that the Jays have finally figured out something? Or is it just the inevitable swing of the pendulum?

Who the hell knows. But be ready for Thursday afternoon... Mountcastle vs Kikuchi. Yet again. Be there or be square.

The Story So Far

Fri 19 May: Baltimore 6 Toronto 2 - Mountcastle's three run homer off Kikuchi staked the Orioles to a 3-1 lead in the third inning. A solo shot from Santander in the sixth (off Richards) and a two run homer by Frazier (off Swanson) in the ninth did the rest of the damage. Kyle Gibson pitched seven strong innings, scattering five hits and holding the Jays to just a single run.

Sat 20 May: Baltimore 6 Toronto 5 - An interesting, and ultimately frustrating game. This was the game when John Schneider finally broke up the Manoah-Kirk combination that had been in place for almost all of Manoah's major league career. And it seemed to work - Manoah, with Danny Jansen behind the plate, actually looked like a competent major league pitcher once again. Manoah pitched into the sixth, and came out of the game largely because his manager had come out to the mound having forgotten that the pitching coach had already made a mound visit that inning. Naturally Jansen hurt himself and went on the IL before Manoah's turn came around again, and after going 0-3, 14.73 in his next three starts, Manoah was sent back to the shop for Major Fixes. As for the rest of the game - the Jays took a 5-2 lead into the eighth inning, with homers from Springer and Jansen leading the attack. But in the eighth, the Orioles put a couple of men on against Erik Swanson. Schneider summoned Jordan Romano for a five out save. Romano got one out, but Ryan O'Hearn tied the game with a three run homer. The Orioles cashed the Zombie Runner in their half of the tenth and Felix Bautista struck out the side to nail it down.

Sun 21 May: Baltimore 8 Toronto 3 - This was a close, absorbing game for most of the afternoon. A Chapman homer staked the Jays to an early lead, but the Orioles cashed a pair in the third. Ortiz led off with a double, Mullins followed with a single, and they both came around to score on a groundout and a failed fielder's choice. The Jays eventually tied it up against reliever Mychal Givens and we went to extras. The Orioles immediately cashed the Zombie Runner against Nate Pearson in their half of the tenth, but the Jays quickly did likewise in their half. So Yimi Garcia came out for the eleventh. He struck out Mountcastle, which seemed a promising start - it was Mountcastle, after all. Garcia then gave up base hits to each of the next four batters, allowing three runs to score, and after getting a second out, concluded his disastrous day by giving up a two run double to Mullins. And the Orioles had completed the sweep.

In our house.

Needles to say, this must be avenged.

Matchups

Tue 13 June - Bassitt (7-4, 3.29) vs Kremer (6-3, 4.89)
Wed 14 June - Berrios (6-4, 3.61) vs Bradish (2-2, 4.25)
Thu 15 June - Kikuchi (6-2, 4.34) vs Wells (5-2, 3.24)
Toronto at Baltimore, June 13-15 | 165 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#430118) #
the longer the season goes on the more frustrating this stuff gets:

Offense:

* TOR: 111wrc+ (#5)
* BAL: 105wrc+ (#9)

* TOR: +0.8bsr (#15)
* BAL: +2.6bsr (#6)

* TOR: 4.65 runs/9 (#12)
* BAL: 4.97 runs/9 (#7)


Defense:

* TOR: -1.5def (#6)
* BAL: -20.8def (#29)

* TOR: 93era- (#10)
* BAL: 99era- (#17)

* TOR: 100fip- (#19)
* BAL: 96fip- (#10)

* TOR: 94xfip- (#7)
* BAL: 96xfip- (#10)

* TOR: 4.27 runs against/9 (#9)
* BAL: 4.38 runs against/9 (#11)



the jays should not be 5 games behind the orioles.

of course much of that is because we let them sweep us. time to make up for that now.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#430119) #
Give the Orioles credit. Posted in the last thread how the Royals are one of the epitomes of futility. Continuous losing and little hope for the future from the farm. Orioles tanked big time but are both winning and have arguably the best farm in baseball.

Nigel mentioned Houston's ability to sign and develop. Orioles brought in Mike Elias from Houston as their GM and are reaping the benefits. Tanks are painful for fans, but when done correctly the benefits can be huge as the Astros and now the Orioles are proving.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 12:20 PM EDT (#430120) #
Some interesting answers from 13 pitchers (including Gausmann and Manoah) on the effects of the pitch clock.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/players-view-thirteen-pitchers-reflect-on-the-pitch-clock/
Gerry - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#430121) #
Jansen should be off the IL today. So who gets optioned? Heineman is the obvious choice but with Belt's sore hammy should you option Lukas instead so Jansen or Kirk can DH?
Nigel - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#430122) #
I think those stats say that the Jays are pretty much exactly where they should be from an overall record perspective. The offensive numbers are still slightly distorted by the 20 run game (partly against position players). But, in general, it shows an offense that has been slightly inefficient/unlucky and a run prevention team that has been slightly efficient/lucky. In both cases, suggesting an offence and a defence only slight above average.

The Baltimore side is more complicated but the one thing that they do have over the Jays is a dynamic bullpen - maybe the best in baseball.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 12:32 PM EDT (#430123) #
This is not a quiz, because I have no clue.

Noticed something when looking at the A's for my post in the Twins thread. Ryan Noda leads the A's in WAR.

Has there ever been a player to lead their team in WAR the same season they were picked in the Rule 5 draft?
Cracka - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#430124) #
Odubel Herrera led the Phillies in WAR in 2015. I think he might be the only one; I looked at a few other immediate impact Rule 5 picks (Dan Uggla, Joakim Soria, etc.) but they didn't lead their team. Noda certainly has a chance to be the 2nd - he plays every day and handles the bat as well as anyone on that squad.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#430126) #
It's hard to send down Lukes if Kiermaier is still sore too. If both of them remain unavailable tonight and there's no guarantee of a return tomorrow, Belt should get a week off on the IL.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#430127) #
Thanks Cracka.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#430128) #
One interesting note about the bullpens - Baltimore has great numbers but have somehow blown 13 saves, ranking them 25th in that department, while the Jays have only blown 7, tied for 6th fewest.

quick pitching breakdown beyond that:

SP

* BAL: 5.2ip/gm (#16), 114era- (#24), 107fip- (#19), 101xfip- (#15)
* TOR 5.6ip/gm (#4), 95era- (#9), 104fip- (#18), 98xfip- (#13)

RP

* BAL: 245.0ip (#13), 79era- (#5), 80fip- (#1), 88xfip- (#3)
* TOR: 223.1ip (#25), 90era- (#12), 94fip- (#14), 87xfip- (#2)
Chuck - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#430130) #
I got a chance to see It Ain't Over on the big screen, recently. This is a documentary/hagiography on the life of one Lawrence Berra. It's a gooey, cuddly ride and one easily taken if a couple of hours of old timey baseball nostalgia is your thing.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#430131) #
Jay All-Star voters are going nuts again.

Leading: Vlad, Chapman, Bo
2nd: Belt
3rd-5th: Merrifield, Kiermaier, Kirk
6th-10th: Springer, Varsho (10th)

Kind of cool that Canadian voters go so nuts each year. Yeah, the guys could use the rest, but I figure this helps other players go 'maybe it'd be nice to have a fan base that addicted'. All 9 possible players have a shot at round 2 (top 2 at each position, top 6 OF) although Varsho is a big longshot to make that.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#430132) #
Bad news for anyone hoping for a Raimel Tapia reunion. Brewers just signed him to a major league contract.
Marc Hulet - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#430133) #
The smart move would probably be to IL Belt and ensure he's healthy while seeing what you have in one of Schneider, Lantigua, or Horwitz... Perfect time to give them a taste in case you need them closer to the playoffs.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#430134) #
Apparently Ernie Clement is in Baltimore.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#430135) #
Good news with Tapia - he is the last thing the team needs. A 90'ish OPS+ hitter who plays very poor defense.

Clement being in town is odd. Wonder if Espinal or Biggio have issues. If Belt goes on the IL they should call up Spencer Horwitz (302/424/406) IMO, although Clement certainly has hit well in AAA (329/411/525) but I'd see it as a chance to really see if Horwitz is worth a 40 man slot this winter or might be useful as a piece in a trade if he does well.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#430136) #
Jansen and Kiermaier are back, so we get the 1-B lineup tonight with Kirk at DH instead of Belt. Good stuff.
Cracka - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#430137) #
Belt did running drills on the field today before being placed on the IL - that says to me that he's not going to be out too long, maybe just the minimum 8 more days - and maybe that's why they called up Clement instead of Horwitz, given the short-term assignment of "sitting on the bench next to Nathan Lukes" rather than a chance for actual playing time.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#430138) #
Whoever they call up be it Horwitz or Clement or any of the others will hardly play. So whatever they show or don't show that they haven't done in AAA is pretty meaningless.

Look at Lukes. Been with the Jays since April 17, so 50 games. 22 plate appearances. What have we learned?
Nigel - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 05:35 PM EDT (#430139) #
They’re hardly going to play and, in that case, they’re really a “break in case of emergency” body. Why not choose someone who could actually play a defensive position if needs be?
Nigel - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#430140) #
Plus, they may need to PH for Varsho at some point in the next week:)
Gerry - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#430141) #
Jansen, Clement and Francis are back.

Cimber to paternity leave

Belt to the IL

Heineman optioned
Magpie - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#430142) #
Mountcastle to the IL?

Fortune smiles upon us. Kikuchi is dancing in the clubhouse.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#430143) #
Fortune smiles upon us

It appears Baltimore has cloned Mountcastle and is using their creation in the cleanup spot.
lexomatic - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#430144) #
Too Many HR
Nigel - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 08:09 PM EDT (#430145) #
There are a number of reasons why the Jays’ offence is scoring runs below what some of the composite metrics like wRC+ might warrant. Tonight is a perfect example of one. Lead off runner on 2B none out in both the 2nd and 3rd - neither scored. Too many empty ABs like those from Jansen and Vladdy. They made some moves this offseason to improve the defense but also to diversify the offence and increase some of the long sequence offence chances. I’m not sure that the second part is working.
Chuck - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#430146) #
Bassitt's run of BABIP magic (.214 coming into tonight vs. .275 for his career) may finally be wearing off.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#430147) #
now would be a good time for this team to show some balls.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#430148) #
I guess not.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#430149) #
Too bad Cimber is unavailable.
lexomatic - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 08:22 PM EDT (#430150) #
All the O's have a hit, 2 have 2. This is going to get UGLY>.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#430151) #
Heineman is chuckling to Jim’s on the bus ride to Buffalo.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#430152) #
can't just lose to our closest rivals, need to make it nice and humiliating.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 08:38 PM EDT (#430153) #
Who is this Baltimore star hitter, "Aaron Hicks"? The name sounds familiar.
Chuck - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#430154) #
Six innings in, the Orioles have put 22 balls in play and 13 have gone for hits.
SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#430155) #
When Vlad is just an ordinary good player rather than a superstar, it's going to drag the upside of this roster down dramatically. He's been a 3.5 WAR player in his last near 1000 plate appearances. There are definite issues with the offense, but if Vlad is a 2-3 WAR/130 wRC+ player rather than something closer to what he was in 2021, then I'm not really sure this roster is as good as it is on paper.

I think it goes without saying that the Orioles, at least offensively, are legit, and they have a lot more reinforcements on the way. They are essentially what we hoped the Jays would be in 2019-onwards.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#430156) #
After this many games in the year, I don’t see much evidence that this is anything other than a 88-90ish win, wildcard caliber, team and probably the 4th best team in the AL East. There’s time though.
Kasi - Tuesday, June 13 2023 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#430157) #
There have been good depth players here that could step up. Drury is playing well in LA. Ramirez looks really good on Tampa. Even McKinney is back with the Yankees. We really don’t know who of the AAA batters are good because I think we as a fan base have been happy to say the above players and others like them are crap. But they moved on and have improved and become solid players? Are the batters at AAA exciting maybe not but there might be similar performers down there.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 01:25 AM EDT (#430158) #
An 88-90ish team can do well if it sneaks into the playoffs. The Phillies made the WS with 87 wins. Atlanta won it all in '21 with just 88 wins. Make the playoffs and good things can happen. Nature of baseball.

Also, I mentioned on Twitter that the Jays have only won 90+ 3 years in a row once, never 4 times in a row. That was 91-93. With 90+ this year they'd do it again. 3 playoffs in 4 years only happened in 91-93, and 89-92. From 1994-2019 (just before the current run) the Jays won 90+ ONCE and made the playoffs a total of 2 times. Thankfully the 2nd time they got to play the Orioles in the one game who left their closer on the bench. Both times they got to play the cursed Texas Rangers who have never won it all (twice to WS, won a total of 4 games losing 8) - this is a team that has existed since 1961 (part of the first expansion). Ugh.

So enjoy this team, 90+ wins annually isn't a normal thing. Jays 90 win seasons are 1985, 1991, 1992, 1993, 2015, 2021, 2022, and possibly this year (just need to get as few games vs AL East as possible).
scottt - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 06:42 AM EDT (#430159) #
In this ballpark, you don't want to give a left bat anything to pull and they keep 6 or 7 in the their lineup.

Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 09:20 AM EDT (#430161) #
" McKinney is back with the Yankees. "

gimme the skinny on Billy McKinney.

85bluejay - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 09:26 AM EDT (#430162) #
The Astros and now the Orioles did the tanking rebuild picture perfect, both featuring Mike Elias - Looks like Edward Rogers hired the wrong guy and along with AA's stunning success in Atlanta, Mr. Rogers must be having nightmares.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#430163) #
I can't believe the Mets lost to the Yankees. Oh, that's a shame. Well, at least the Mets are trying.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#430164) #
I don’t believe that Rodgers has ever shown any appetite for tanking and a rebuild. In fact, this owner’s trademark is to not lean into either end of the success curve. The mushy middle is just fine.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#430166) #
* 2017: 19th
* 2018: 22nd
* 2019: 26th

I mean that had better be a decision to rebuild causing that.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#430167) #
I mean that had better be a decision to rebuild causing that.

It was worse if you ask me. It was the new management group trying to squeeze a few more drops of success out of the aging team they had inherited. That may or may not have been their decision. Only the third of those years was an actual rebuild, when the reality of the situation could no longer be denied.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#430168) #
Exactly, they were trying to do the opposite of a rebuild and missed the chance to sell some assets and really lean into a rebuild.
bpoz - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#430171) #
IMO the rebuild started at the 2018 trade deadline. If Da Box had a poll on when the rebuild started and when it ended I would say the 2018 trade deadline with a comment added. In 2019 I was very impressed by the maturity and understanding of the Bauxites because practically nobody complained as far as I can remember. The 2019 team had a lot of growing pains(blunders) as they gained experience.

I can accept anyone saying that Ryu should "not" have been signed for the 2020 season because we lost 95 games the year before. Baltimore has not yet added an expensive FA. They preferred a long tanking. I cannot remember much about Houston tanking. I remember the Verlander trade. Also the Latin pitching studs.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#430173) #
It's interesting looking back at the Jays and O's from 2016 to now and seeing how they got here. Both won 89 games in 2016, then tried to extend their window and failed in 2017 with around the same record (Jays 76 wins, O's 75 wins). Both again misjudged their window in 2018, except the Orioles ended up being historically bad while the Jays were just bad. Finally in 2019 both decided to accept an outright tank, with the Jays stripping down in anticipation for Vlad and Bichette's arrivals, while the Orioles hired Mike Elias to take over. Both teams were awful in 2019. I won't count 2020 since it wasn't really a season. Then in 2021 the Orioles were awful again while the Jays won 91 games and missed the playoffs. Finally in 2022 both teams were good at the same time, with the Jays making the playoffs and the Orioles finishing with a respectable 83 wins, missing the last WC spot by 3 games.

I'm sure Orioles fans were miserable from 2017-21, but looking back, was it really any better being a Jays fan by comparison? The Jays were bad from 2017-19, probably would have been below .500 in 2020 if they played a normal season, and then finally became good in 2021 and still missed the playoffs (and Rogers didn't even benefit from it since most of the season was played in Dunedin/Buffalo). Now the O's looked poised to go on a sustained run while the Jays look like an old(er) team getting painfully closer to the end of a contention window (2025).

Rogers will probably never accept a prolonged rebuild, I think the Jays were lucky they even got to have one in 2019, but you could argue the refusal to rebuild from July 2017 onwards is a big reason why the team doesn't have more young talent to surround its current group. I don't want to sit through 100 loss seasons, but 87 loss seasons aren't much better, and at least the former could lead to some draft luck. The Orioles unfortunately played it the right way after getting Elias.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#430174) #
Shapiro's record of always being in the mushy middle extends much further back than his time with Rogers, of course.

It's why they hired him.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#430175) #
* 2017: 19th
* 2018: 22nd
* 2019: 26th


Naturally I had to look at the entire franchise history. I know one shouldn't take it too seriously - for roughly half of this period, the teams in the Other League might as well have been playing on the moon, there being no inter-league play. The schedules have never been balanced, and over the years the game has gradually become more like hockey, where regular season performance isn't nearly as important as how hot you get in the post-season.

It's still kind of neat, though.

The Expansion Years
1977 26 (last)
1978 25
1979 26 (last)
1980 23
1981 26 (last)

The Pat Gillick Years
1982 18
1983 7
1984 5
1985 2
1986 10
1987 2
1988 9
1989 7
1990 8
1991 5
1992 4
1993 4
1994 13

The Gord Ash Years
1995 27 (tied for last)
1996 22
1997 23
1998 11
1999 12
2000 14
2001 17
2002 18

The J.P. Ricciardi Years
2003 13
2004 26
2005 17
2006 10
2007 15
2008 13
2009 22

The Anthopoulos Years
2010 13
2011 14
2012 22
2013 23
2014 14
2015 5

The Atkins Years
2016 8
2017 19
2018 22
2019 26
2020 11
2021 9
2022 8

You will notice that the Jays have never had the best record in the major leagues. The two times they had the second-best record are a rather painful memory (for those of us old enough to remember 1985 and 1987.) And indeed they haven't spent much time wallowing amongst the bottom feeders since emerging from their expansion beginnings.

And holy crap, but Pat Gillick did a job. Couldn't make a first round draft pick to save his life, but....
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 11:57 AM EDT (#430176) #
Giving Atkins credit for that #8 finish in 2016 is a stretch i think.

The only notable addition he made to that team was bringing back jays-friendly Happ who AA had already brought in previously.
Joe - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#430177) #
I have a memory that Shapiro and/or Atkins wanted to do a rebuild when they came in (in 2016 or at latest 2017), but that plan was shot down by ownership. Whether that is true I don't actually know; I can't find any references on the internet.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#430178) #
That's always the way in Year One for any GM. Anthopoulos didn't trade for Jose Bautista.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#430179) #
I have a memory that Shapiro and/or Atkins wanted to do a rebuild when they came in

I remember it slightly differently -Shapiro didn't say they wanted to, but ownership prevented it (he would never actually say that, even if it was true.) But he did say it's what they should have done.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 12:09 PM EDT (#430180) #
Haven't looked at this in a while. Just wanted to see how it looks.

Marcus Stroman:

* w/TOR (5.5yrs, 23-28): 135gms, 5.9ip/gm, 89era-, 84fip-, 84xfip-, 3.4war/32gms
* Since (4.5yrs, 28-32): 83gms, 5.6ip/gm, 78era-, 89fip-, 85xfip-, 3.6war/32gms


good pitcher.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#430181) #
Traded for Anthony Kay and SWR.

Salary since trade:

* 2020: $12.0
* 2021: $18.9
* 2022: $25.0
* 2023: $25.0
* 2024: Player option for $21-$25m depending on IP
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#430182) #
What happened to Woods Richardson anyway? He had a terrific season last year, made it all the way up to the big club for his MLB debut by the end. And this year - poof! An 0-5, 8.08 log in AAA.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#430183) #
Looking at the Jays one can certainly see why us older folk should appreciate Atkins vs AA vs JPR vs Ash (brrr), vs Expansion. Gillick did better but he is in the HOF for a reason and he needed 5 years of pure crap to get good (more building assets in the minors for when '82 and beyond hit vs todays draft base). A top 10 record every year from '83 to 93 is a 'wow'. '17 you couldn't tank as the Jays just made the ALCS the year before, '18 they could've but it would've been a PR disaster if they dumped Donaldson as they should've in retrospect pre-season. It was reasonable to assume he'd be in decent health though and be tradeable mid-season. Guessing no one wanted Smoak (had a good year in '17 and '18 but limited to 1B/DH). Not a lot of tradeable parts by that point really.

Yeah, the O's and Astros both did the 'suck for a bit then win' but that doesn't always work (see KC now in year 6 of sucking, Pittsburgh which has had 3 years of playoffs from 1993-now never getting to the NLCS even, Detroit - last in playoffs in 2014 and has sucked bad most years since, etc.). The O's had 3 years of REALLY sucking - 108+ losses, Astros also had 3 horrid years (106+ losses and TV ratings hit 0.0 at one point). The Jays won't do that as Rogers likes the brand to have some value every year. A 500 team gets them enough to keep the lights on. A 90 win team gets 500k to 1 million viewers per game (top source of revenue) which is what matters most to Rogers. Getting up to 100 wins wouldn't add much to that, so no incentive to go all NY Mets or early 00's Yankees.

Atkins doesn't catch me as 'wow' but the team has done what is needed, namely 90+ wins each year and could do that again if they could just win a few vs AL East teams. Tanking isn't going to happen as it is too big a money loser for Rogers (if the Jays got a 0 rating I suspect everyone in the front office would be fired fairly quickly). I wouldn't be shocked if Atkins has a short leash now though - if the team doesn't win 90 and/or make the playoffs this year his neck is clearly on the chopping block. 2 big contracts to negotiate (Bo & Vlad), a few free agents to make choices on, but trades will be hard with the minors not as strong as it should be. We will see, winning solves everything of course.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#430184) #
Using our same silly measuring device, the 2023 Jays are the 10th best team in the majors (tied with Miami, to be precise.) And two things are true - it's not bad (Ash and Ricciardi never beat it, Anthopoulos just once) and it's not good enough. The bar has been raised.

I do remain blithely confident that they will finish better than that. I remain convinced that as the schedule - finally - gets softer, the team will win more often. And people (not the ones here, y'all know better!) will go - oh wow, they finally put it together.
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#430185) #
I thought Bo signed for 3 years? So, no "big" contracts to negotiate in the immediate future, IMHO.


If they sign Vlad to anything big at this point, with 2 'good' seasons in a row, it has the potential to be  another Prince Fielder deal.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 01:26 PM EDT (#430186) #
The only notable addition he made to that team was bringing back jays-friendly Happ who AA had already brought in previously.

AA Happ was pretty mediocre, as he was in Seattle. It wasn't the Pirates pitching coach fixed him he became good Happ. And it wasn't Atkins. Tony LaCava signed Happ and Estrada, and traded Hendricks for Chavez. Then Atkins took over.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#430187) #
It wasn't the Pirates pitching coach fixed him

Should read : It wasn't until the Pirates pitching coach fixed him
Nigel - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#430188) #
I agree that a softer schedule will make the team look better but I think its already been exposed for exactly what it is - a good but not great team. One that will likely have to beat one of Houston, NYY and Baltimore to even make the playoffs - no easy task. Plus, there really isn't an easy way to make this team a lot better (either in assets to trade, salary room to take on or obvious holes to fill with even an average player).

If you thought that this team would be better then I think its been a tough go so far to watch. I was probably the low person around here on this team and, as occasionally frustrating as they are, I find it more fun watching the Jays than the Royals.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#430189) #
If you thought that this team would be better

I did, and obviously I didn't expect them to go 4-9 when Alek Manoah started the game. I actually think they're doing rather well at surviving the utter implosion of their number one starter.

But Atkins needs a solution to this problem, and he needs it pretty soon.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#430190) #
ah yes good point about LaCava there Hypo.

so I definitely would not credit Atkins with the 8th placed finish in 2016, and would actually argue the team would have finished higher with AA still there.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#430191) #
I don't see any solutions that are even available - Atkins played his trump card in the Varsho deal. He really doesn't have anything interesting left in his hand to play (unless he loses his mind and deals Tiedmann). I think we're in the hoping and praying phase that a bullpen by committee can piece together something like a 5th starter contribution every 5th day.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#430193) #
Atkins was the GM of record in 2016, but I agree he was mostly watching and finding out what he had. The pitching was actually better than the year before. Happ replaced Buehrle and was an actual upgrade and a full season of both Stroman and Sanchez in the rotation was quite a bit better than two months of Price and five months of Hutchison. The problem in 2016 was the offense. They scored almost a full run a game less than they had in 2015. Everybody except Donaldson was notably worse than the year before, and in retrospect it was veryy predictable. Players in their 30s do not get better. They get worse, or they get hurt, or both.

You know, if Buck Showalter had just brought Britton into that game they might have got the rebuild started a little sooner...
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#430195) #
"watching and finding out what he had" is not exactly the strategy you want when you're fielding a contender, of course.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 03:31 PM EDT (#430196) #
"watching and finding out what he had" is not exactly the strategy you want when you're fielding a contender, of course.

True enough, but I think he watched and found out that he didn't really have a contender at all. He had a bunch of old guys who were declining right in front of his eyes. You could actually track it happening. They scored 5.63 runs per game in July, 4.82 in August, 3.70 in September. They were old, and they were running out of gas. I remember us all being worried about it at the time.
soupman - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#430197) #
nothing about anthopolous' success should be stunning. he took a franchise that had been ruined by the worst GM i can think of and turned it back into a division winner in 6 years without tanking. the new management has been here 8 years and never come close to sniffing another title. the evident m.o. of 'just try and make the playoffs and hope for the best' rather than: 'build the most dominant team in baseball', isn't one that inspires me.

Now would be, imo, a good time to change horses if the team falls out of it leading up to the deadline. Next year you are losing 4/9 of your everyday bats from the lineup (Belt, Merrifield, Chapman, and Kiermaier). New management could make the difficult calls to move on from some of the contracts while they still appear as assets (Gausman, Springer??, Bassit, etc) and potentially find someone that thinks Vlad is still an MVP in waiting. A full rebuild would be bold, but it's unlikely that the 2024 team is going to outperform this years' team. Without results on the field, that's a virtual certainty, and fans should be dubious of the notion they can fill the impending holes.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#430198) #
The doing nothing was incredibly frustrating in 2016. It was really the only option that made no sense. You either supplemented what was there to try for one more go with that aging roster or you started the tear down. Either were acceptable choices in the 2015 offseason. In hindsight, selling was the better choice due to the steepness of the decline. "Do nothing" as the chosen path in 2016 and the longstanding trend of pushing players up the defensive spectrum at the cost of defence (particularly OF defence) are my two main, roster construction, criticisms of this management group.
soupman - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 03:42 PM EDT (#430199) #
he's a middle manager. emphasis on the 'mid'.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#430200) #
"Atkins was the GM of record in 2016"

What does this mean?

Timeline was Estrade signed Nov 20, Hendriks traded Nov 20, Happ signed Nov 27. Atkins hired Dec 3..

I don't remember any offseason moves after Dec 3, other than Biagini in the Rule 5 and trading Revere for Storen. So yeah, mostly watching and finding out.
soupman - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#430201) #
that's what bothered me about the change at the time and now: if the ownership liked the team, why did they make the hire?

if the new management team didn't like the team, why take the job?

it's the hallmark of a bad organization to proceed in these half-hearted ways. i've lacked confidence in this group since day one, and sadly, my intuitions continue to be proven mostly correct. they've been given resources aa never was, and failed to come close to his success in less time despite having a functioning scouting department when they arrived, and semblance of an active fanbase.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#430202) #
2016 moves after Atkins came onboard (December 3rd 2015)...
  • Rule 5 Joe Biagini
  • Signed a ton of 'meh' guys to minor league deals (as every GM does every year)
  • May 31st: Traded Sean Ratcliffe (never reached) for Jason Grilli (effective in '16, crap in '17)
  • June 9th: Drafted Bo Bichette, 10th: Drafted Cavan Biggio
  • July 4th: Signed Otto Lopez
  • Aug 1st: Traded Drew Hutchison for Francisco Liriano, Reese McGuire and Harold Ramírez.
  • Aug 3rd: Signed Gabriel Moreno
  • Sept 24th: Signed Alejandro Kirk
  • Nov 12th: Signed Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
  • Dec 5th: Signed Steve Pearce as a free agent (later traded in '18 for Santiago Espinal)
Lots of other minor moves, but obviously in retrospect the biggest moves were the UFA's signed in Moreno/Kirk/Gurriel and drafting Bo & Biggio. Hard to do much better - wonder if they kept many of the scouts who pushed them to sign those guys?

Biggest trade was Hutchison for Liriano & McGuire, with Liriano flipped the next year for Teoscar Hernandez. Liriano helped in '16 and via those 2 trades helped set up the future for the Jays as well. Signing Pearce who he'd flip much later for Espinal was a good move too. Really, he set up a lot of future moves in '16.

I'm just very glad Atkins wasn't dumb enough to trade any of the good kids for shiny objects back then to try to stay in contention in '16, '17, '18.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#430203) #
Either [one more go or a tear down] were acceptable choices in the 2015 offseason.

Tearing it down after 2015 was probably the right thing to do, it was definitely the right thing to do after 2016, and it was bloody overdue after 2017. But I think it would have been utterly impossible to sell it to the public after 2015, and probably after 2016 as well. You finally get to play in the post-season, after more than 20 years of missing it, and the first thing you're going to do is blow it up?
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#430204) #
"Atkins was the GM of record in 2016"

What does this mean?


What I meant was that while Atkins was the GM, it was for all intents and purposes a team built by Anthopoulos.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#430205) #
Oh I understand the marketing issues associated with the 2015 and, to a lesser extent, the 2016 offseason. But that's actually what a good front office is able to juggle. Maybe you sell a part and buy a part, etc. If the front office bars you from selling then you invest in the club but limit the long term salary obligations etc. Doing nothing was really the only option that wasn't available to them. Spilled milk and all that - there's a game tonight!
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#430206) #
Spilled milk and all that - there's a game tonight!

Yeah, we're just killing time before first pitch.

As I think everyone knows by now, I'm not a big fan of Anthopoulos' work here, although I sure enjoyed those two months in 2015 when the Jays suddenly turned into the 1927 Yankees. (It's the other five years and four months I have trouble distinguishing from the Ricciardi years. No they didn't tank - they finished 22nd and 23rd without tanking.)

But I think he's done a wonderful job in Atlanta, and I would note that he's been a very different GM there. He's emphasized getting the youngest players he can find. Freddie Freeman, who isn't even close to his Best-By date, was too old and expensive for the new Anthopoulos.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#430207) #
A tear down after 2015 wouldn’t have made sense since the team had one more year of control on both Jose and Edwin, and both were still star players in 2015. Stretching out the window for one more season was a reasonable move. Not starting the rebuild in the summer of 2017 was borderline delusional, though.

As far as 2016, not sure they could have done better than they did. Signing Happ and bringing Estrada back both worked out great, and the Liriano trade mid season made a difference. Offensively they didn’t really have a hole they could fill except 1B, but not sure if adding a 1B was going to change their fortunes that much. As mentioned that was a old team on its last legs.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#430208) #
No question marketing matters a LOT to the Jays. Rogers owns them, the TV network, and the stadium (among other things). If the Jays tank then all those things lose money. If the Jays win they all make money. So the question becomes how to stay at the 90 or so win level which will keep all things profitable for as long as possible? The Jays NEED to do a LOT better in developing talent. Bo-Vlad-Biggio-Kirk-Moreno-Jansen-Romano-Manoah and to a lesser degree Espinal-Lopez-Mayza helped build this team quickly. Now a new wave is needed, especially on the mound. Not as many needed, but some very soon.

The closest is infield with Orelvis Martinez looking better by the day, Addison Barger not having a good year. Not to mention Damiano Palmegiani in AA (23 yrs old, 276/389/470 at 3B/1B). But not a lot to write home about there.

Pitching has Adam Kloffenstein (22 yrs old, 2.84 ERA in AA, 10.6 K/9 vs 3.6 BB/9). Sadly Tiedemann only got 4 starts before getting hurt. Sadly again not much else stands out (some nice #'s for relievers but in sub 20 IP so who cares). For now I'm ignoring A+ and lower as they only help in trades for 2023.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#430209) #
"but I think he watched and found out that he didn't really have a contender at all."

eh, they finished 8th overall with their GM literally doing nothing to help them.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 04:58 PM EDT (#430210) #
and a couple of other things:

* regardless of whether you wanted a rebuild or not he could have re-signed the big names and we would have been no worse off other than rogers' pocketbook. literally could have both tried to keep the band together for the fans and on the chance that they could get one more year together and still made all the "rebuild" moves they ended up making anywyas.

* while people may not have liked AA trading all those (mediocre) prospects at the time, I think it's a safe bet that AA would have had much less hesitation doing a bold and significant rebuild when the team dictated it than the new guys did.
Kasi - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#430211) #
Well AA drafted those mediocre prospects too. And some of the ones he shipped out ended up being fine. Thinking of Gomes, Musgrove, Gravemen and others. I’d have to agree with Magpie in that AA was quite average here and then went and learned under the best and is now much better. I don’t think there is much proof if he had stayed here he would have gotten better either. But yeah the same issue is hitting the current regime that hit AA. No young players coming up to fortify the core. The current core is younger sure but it’s still the same problem.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#430212) #
The 2024 Jays payroll projects to be around 180MM right now, and that's with gaping holes in LF, 3B, and DH. If they aren't willing to go for it this year by trading a guy like Tiedemann, they should probably start thinking about what they can get for players like Romano, Chapman, Belt, Kiermaier, and Garcia.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 06:41 PM EDT (#430213) #
92-93 that does really get at the crux of things. I'll start with the obvious, there is zero chance that Rogers would support selling at the deadline if this team is in the playoff hunt. Personally, I don't think that this team is close to good enough to "empty the bucket" with something like a Tiedemann trade. Strictly from a baseball perspective (not a marketing perspective), I think that the Jays should consider moving Chapman and Romano at the deadline (I don't see Belt or Garcia having much value). The reasoning is different for both - I think Chapman is going to free agency and will go to the highest bidder and that will not be the Jays; for Romano, I think that the mythical closer is over valued and can sometimes return value in a trade over and above; plus his over 50% SL usage has me concerned about Romano's longer term arm issues. Chapman and Romano could return pieces that could keep the contention window open during the rest of the Vladdy/Bo pre-UFA years.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#430214) #
literally could have both tried to keep the band together for the fans

See, that's precisely my problem with what Atkins did. He tried to keep the band together. He didn't quite do nothing - he was a little busy fixing a bullpen that had gone south. But mostly he kept the band together. His greatest failing here, to my mind, are those three years wasted at the beginning of his tenure. It was 2019 before they got down to business.

We do judge by a different set of expectations now. The Jays are like the Leafs now. We don't care how good the regular season is anymore. Whereas ten years ago, if you'd told us they were going to win 90 games - never mind twice - we'd have got down on our knees and given thanks. Such was the cumulative impact of Ash, Ricciardi and the first five years of Anthopoulos.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#430215) #
Not quite the same thing. Leafs are a consistent top 5 team thats a playoffs lock every year.

Jays are a consistent borderline top 10 team that has yet to actually earn a playoffs spot.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#430216) #
and the Leafs have fired 2 GMs now in Atkins time in Toronto.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#430217) #
This has probably struck only me, but its felt like this team has been behind the eight ball in games all season long. There are some actual stats to back this up (sort of:)). The Jays rank 25th (and really a smidge off dead last) in runs scored in the 1st inning (.45 runs per game) and 29th (and a smidge off dead last) in runs against in the 1st (at .81 runs per game). Weird.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#430218) #
If often feels like when the Jays SP pitches really well and throws up zeros, the offense simultaneously goes AWOL against the opposing SP.
Chuck - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#430219) #
That argued strike three on Guerrero was indeed a strike, at least per the graphics we see. That's some lily-livered work by the production team to let the broadcast team argue the call without showing the replay that would refute them and Guerrero.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 08:49 PM EDT (#430220) #
Could be another interesting decision for Schneider if the game remains 1-0 heading into B9 — Berrios or Romano?
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#430221) #
Don't always want "interesting." This is better!
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#430222) #
Mayza time. Better hope he gets Henderson. Arguably would have been better to go with Romano in this key part of the game.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#430223) #
Mayza's been so good this year.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 09:38 PM EDT (#430224) #
The O’s are pesky.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#430225) #
Tommorrow is now a Big Game.

Hopefully we show up.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#430226) #
I thought the choice was Mayza or Swanson - both of whom have been better than Romano anyway - and as they said on the broadcast, you'd much rather have Swanson for the next two guys after Henderson. But Henderson doesn't handle LH very well, he's never homered against one, Mayza hasn't allowed a homer yet this season - and in that situation, it's the home run that ruins your evening. Schneider went all-in on the one at bat.

Made it all a little more interesting than I'd like, but take the W.
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#430227) #
The Mets have become . . . the Mets.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 09:54 PM EDT (#430228) #
Wasn’t there a game earlier this season where Schneider made a similar move, Mayza failed to get the first (LH) batter, and then gave up a crucial home run to a RHB? Maybe against the Yankees or Red Sox? That’s what I was thinking of. But checking Mayza’s stats this year, yes, he has been very good overall.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#430229) #
Well remembered! It was last September. He came in to start the seventh inning in a 3-3 tie against the Yankees. Gave up a single to Hicks and a homer to Judge.

Hasn't given up a homer since.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#430230) #

"Pitchers are kinda dumb." — Whit Merrifield

— Minor Leaguer (@Minor_Leaguer) June 15, 2023
uglyone - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#430231) #

Whit Merrifield to @thehazelmae on why it’s easier to steal third than second - “pitchers are kind of dumb.”

— Faizal Khamisa (@FaizalKhamisa) June 15, 2023
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 10:46 PM EDT (#430232) #
So, are we all feeling a bit better about Atkins? After all, a number of his moves were central to tonight’s win:

-Traded for Berrios (and gave up little in return)
-Extended Berrios
-Traded for Merrifield (and gave up little in return)
-Traded for Chapman (and gave up little in return)
-Signed Kiermaier as a free agent
-Signed Springer as a free agent
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#430233) #
Mets beat Yankees (and Cole) in 10 innings. The Jays are a game back of the Yankees again.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 14 2023 @ 11:26 PM EDT (#430234) #
Berrios trade is still hard to measure. 1.8 bWAR for the Jays, Martin has 3 games this year (1 for 6, a HR in rookie ball) due to injuries, Simeon Woods Richardson has 2 ML games (1 last year, 1 this year) -0.2 bWAR, and in AAA this year is 0-5 8.08 ERA over 10 starts 42 1/3 IP 5.5 BB/9 7.7 K/9 (ouch - he has fallen apart after a 2.21 ERA in AAA last year over 7 starts 36 2/3 IP).

Merrifield (1.4 WAR) cost us Samad Taylor (302/403/451 in AAA at age 24) and Max Castillo (5.14 ERA over 4 G 14 IP this year in majors, 4.97 ERA in AAA 8 starts 41 2/3 IP). Given how bad KC is this year (now fighting with the A's for last in majors) they both should get significant ML time this year.

Chapman (6.4 WAR) cost Gunnar Hoglund (A ball, 6 IP 10 H 5 ER 2 BB 4 SO), Zach Logue (6.79 ERA last year, 5.40 in AAA this year for Detroit as the A's waived him and lost him to Detroit), Kevin Smith (55 OPS+ this year) and Kirby Snead (64 ERA+ last year, stunk it up in rookie ball so far this year in 2 IP). So yeah, I'd say the Jays won that trade by a mile unless Smith somehow starts hitting.

Free agents cost nothing but cash and a draft pick for Springer (2nd round 2021, 20th pick of the round which the Cubs used to take James Trianto, hitting well 860 OPS in A+ at 2B/DH at age 20).

No question right now that those moves greenfrog listed all have gone the Jays way to date, and given the Jays are in a win now stage that is what matters most. Can't see any of those guys making the Jays regret the deals anytime soon. Maybe Martin if he somehow becomes what everyone thought he'd be but that is doubtful right now.
Michael - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 02:16 AM EDT (#430237) #
I'm still of the opinion that AA is very underrated by the fan base *and* that Atkins is somewhat underrated by the fan base.
Magpie - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 08:11 AM EDT (#430238) #
AA is very underrated by the fan base

A typo surely. Those two months in 2015 made him a legend, the sainted local boy who led the team to the post-season for the first time in 20 years.

Anthopoulos did have a Trade Deadline for the ages in 2015, and he had another that was just as important (if not so spectacular) in Atlanta in 2021. It can't always be done (and it's not always worth trying) but this is about when you start thinking about it. You begin the season with your plan. And then you get punched in the face.

Which brings us to the 2023 Jays. Alek Manoah's descent into unplayability is a nasty and unexpected Punch in the Face. I think Atkins needs to respond with something better than Waiting for Hyun-Jin, and fairly soon. Because Bowden Francis and Mitch White aren't going to cut it.
John Northey - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#430239) #
The 5th slot (was #1 slot) is a tough one. When your ace goes down it is hard to compensate. Last year it was Ryu going down but Stripling stepped up and did fantastic, but seeing how he flopped this year one has to think that was a large chunk of luck (Stripling has a 7.24 ERA over 32 1/3 IP and now is in a rehab stint in rookie ball 2 IP 4 H 1 BB 2 SO 1 ER).

The staff reminds me of 1986 in that respect. The Jays #1 (Dave Stieb) fell apart early on (19 starts 5.74 ERA, then did a relief game, start, 2 relief games) before getting solid (14 starts 3.35 ERA) again. Then had a 109 or better ERA+ every year for 5 more years before his arm fell off. In '86 that made it tough for a team that won 99 the year before. An assortment of #6's were tried, especially after Alexander (also a solid rotation member) was traded due to ineffectiveness. 2 relievers got starts, Duane Ward was given a start (he sucked at it), etc. It was painful. The option of demoting Stieb to figure it out wasn't there (later found bone spurs on his feet iirc which when cleared up allowed him to regain his all-star form).

Losing a #1 isn't easy to compensate for unless you get damn lucky (say, a rookie like Manoah in '21 coming up and dominating, or a #6 guy like Stripling suddenly figuring it out for a year like last year). For now it is piece it together with whatever you can find. I don't see a trade happening as the Jays don't have a lot of minor league parts to trade and Manoah hopefully will be back soon, followed by Ryu. I suspect the Jays are debating options from giving Francis a full start to giving Kloffenstein a shot (2.84 ERA in AA after bad results for years). Guys like Lawrence could've had another shot had they pitched well in AAA but he flopped as did Thompson as did Hutchinson - it was reasonable to hope one of those guys would be a good #6 guy. White should've been but hasn't shown anything. Sigh.
dalimon5 - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#430240) #
Surprised nobody has mentioned how good Nick Frasso would look right now as a call up.
John Northey - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 10:16 AM EDT (#430241) #
A reminder of how early it still is - Bassitt had a 3.29 ERA before his last start, now it is 4.02. That is a massive shift. Yet we have played 69 games, or 9 more than the whole 2020 season. Boy that was a freak show year.

So our big 3 are good - Gausman 2.9 fWAR, Berrios 1.5 fWAR, Bassitt 0.4 fWAR (OK his is low). Kikuchi is an issue at -0.2 fWAR (if he stays near 0 I think that is OK for the Jays purposes this year in his role). Manoah at -0.6 fWAR is horrid, Francis/White/Hatch range from 0.1 to -0.1 fWAR, net of 0 fWAR over 12 IP. IE: they are exactly what they are expected to be - replacement level. Also at 0.0 is Bass and Jackson. Negatives are Pop and Cimber.

Boy, can hardly wait for the injury guys to come back (Green will have a big impact if fully healthy as he'd shift everyone but Romano down a slot in the pen). Manoah could be a massive impact if he comes back in the 2nd half anywhere near his 2021/2022 form - I figure we'll know quickly, if he hits a guy or two and doesn't get rattled then we'll know he is back to his old self.
John Northey - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 10:22 AM EDT (#430242) #
dalimon5 - agreed. Frasso for White is looking REALLY bad now. But Frasso while having a great ERA at 1.69 in AA with 2.5 BB/9 vs 12.7 K/9 has only thrown 32 innings over 9 starts, or 3 1/2 IP per start. In April he reached 5 innings in 2 starts, but missed most of May and since coming back has 3 starts and just 5 1/3 IP allowing 3 runs 4 BB 9 K's 4 H. He is high on potential but still is a bit away and at 24 he needs to prove himself quickly or end up in the pen ala Pearson.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#430243) #
the Mets . . . Amazin' fools.
hypobole - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#430244) #
Surprised nobody has mentioned how good Nick Frasso would look right now as a call up.

Would he? Frasso's last 4 games, all in AA Tulsa:

May 6 - 4.2 IP
May 28 - 3.0 IP
June 2 - 0.1 IP
June 6 - 2.0 IP

Doesn't exactly scream "put me in coach, I'm ready to start in the majors" The 2 inning June 6 game was also his his worst this year. Don't know what injury issues he has but that seems to be the thing right now.


Chuck - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#430245) #
the Mets . . . Amazin' fools.

The 86M being paid to Verlander and Scherzer exceeds Tampa's entire payroll.

hypobole - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#430246) #
#1 - mea culpa. Predicted Vlad would hit his 1st RC HR during the Twins series.

#2 Process vs results.
Vlad 22/23 3.5 fWAR. Brandon Drury 22/23 3.9 fWAR. Atkins was derided mercilessly for the Happ trade.

Pirates gave Joey Bats a $500K signing bonus on a scouts recommendation who gave him a 70 power grade. Slugged .403 as a Pirate. Fired the scout.
Kasi - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#430247) #
Yeah that’s part of why I roll my eyes a bit about Jays not acquiring talent. I know Jays fans wanted to run Drury and Ramirez out of town calling them AAAA players and useless. And tbh the Jays kinda followed suit. And now they’re excelling elsewhere. I think we can develop good hitters it’s just we’ve done a poor job of being patient. Hopefully it can work with someone like Biggio.
Magpie - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#430249) #
Ramirez is one of those types that most teams just aren't very interested in, a corner outfielder without speed or power. His biggest skill is BAVG, which we've all been taught to disregard. But if your BAVG is good enough...

Drury was genuinely bad here, but his BABiP went completely into the toilet during his entire stint on the AL, and bounced back nicely in the Other League.
Kasi - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#430250) #
Well he has as many home runs as Vlad so not completely no power. He’ll probably hit low 20s this year.
greenfrog - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 01:08 PM EDT (#430254) #
Apparently one of his nicknames is “Barrel” Ramirez. He could be that he’s an outlier like Arraez. High xBA, good K%, decent speed. Tampa sure can pick ‘em. He has been more valuable than Varsho this year.
uglyone - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#430256) #
"Those two months in 2015 made him a legend,"

honestly Magpie you're better than this.

everyone knew that team was damn good before the deadline.

and that team was good enough to finish 8th overall the next year even with the front office sitting on its ass all year.

And that was only in 5yrs, despite inheriting a shit team with zero prospects.

uglyone - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 02:03 PM EDT (#430257) #
Not to mention AA was doing it with a much lower budget than the current crew has.
85bluejay - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 02:07 PM EDT (#430258) #
I was promoting the Jays go aggressively after Eury Perez last year - I noticed he's off to a brilliant start for the Marlins.
christaylor - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#430259) #
The Jays had some pathagoean blues but that's not inconsistent with the 2015 deadline making AA a legend. Those deals were surprising and deft. AA landed two name players when many Jays fans were fretting that we were a back water. I can't speak for others I was happy with one deadline splash and two was legendary.

AA was fine and I chiefly liked him because he was not JP Riccardi whose angry Toronto hating clown act had worn thin by 2004. The current front office has been very competent. The 2019-present teams have all been interesting and/or good. Really that's enough. Gillick made a career out of fielding that sort of team.
Nigel - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#430260) #
Being more valuable than Varsho this year isn't a high bar to cross:). Jokes aside, I've always believed that Ramirez and his ilk have a role in a balanced line-up. Contact skills and a high AVG have bigger value in a balanced line-up that is suited for long sequence offence. Balance isn't just L/R - its a balance of contact skills, power, speed, handedness etc. The Jays became significantly unbalanced over time and the course correction for 2023 was overdue - still not there yet though.
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#430261) #
Handsome Danny Jansen.

" There goes another one! "

uglyone - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#430262) #
Nigel last year the Jays ranked:

* #1 AVG
* #14 BB%
* #3 OBP
* #5 K%
* #8 ISO
* #25 BSR
* #3 wRC+ vRHP
* #7 wRC+ vLHP

seems like a very balanced lineup, other than baserunning.


This year:

* #2 AVG
* #20 BB%
* #3 OBP
* #4 K%
* #15 ISO
* #15 BSR
* #3 wRC+ vRHP
* #19 wRC+ vLHP

We've gained some baserunning this year, but that's at the expense of power, and now we suck against LHP.




Surprisingly the defense ranks the same in both years (#8), though i can't believe they were actually 8th last year with the way the OF and Bo played last year.

Magpie - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#430263) #
honestly Magpie you're better than this.

Don't you know me by now?

This is probably where I point out that the team was its usual 50-51 the day of the Tulowitzki trade, that the 85 games they won with the team he inherited was the most they would win over the next five seasons, and he didn't inherit prospects - he inherited something far better: Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#430264) #
Can we move on from the same tired arguments? Everyone’s positions have been well established, and no one is going to convince anyone else to move off those positions. Let’s stop acting like one more fact/argument will persuade the masses to your side.

2015 was eight years ago.

This is a game thread for the Baltimore series.

Shouldn’t we be talking about the games?
lexomatic - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#430265) #
So frustrated with Yimi today
Nigel - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#430266) #
For the first time in this discussion I part company with you Magpie. He inherited them, but AA was the guy smart enough to get them on sweet long term deals. Both were risky. It’s a pattern he’s successfully repeated in his new gig.
Nigel - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#430267) #
Not sure how much longer this pen can carry Garcia.
hypobole - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#430268) #
AA was the guy smart enough to get them on sweet long term deals.

AA has been the best GM in MLB at this.
Magpie - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 03:04 PM EDT (#430269) #
AA was the guy smart enough to get them on sweet long term deals.

Yes indeed, especially Bautista whom he snapped up while we were still wondering if he was for real.

One batter too long with Garcia, I think, but you don't want to turn Santander around and have him bat right-handed. But it was the LH Schneider had ready. Oops.
SK in NJ - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#430270) #
If Garcia appears in 19 more games, then his 2024 option at $6M becomes guaranteed. Given where the Jays are from a payroll standpoint, I think getting off of that deal would be the smart play, though I would imagine it would hurt/limit his trade value unless another team was prepared to pay him $6M next season. Seems like the Mets who don't care about money and need relievers would be the safest bet. I hope it's at least considered.
greenfrog - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 03:13 PM EDT (#430271) #
Key AB right here for Springer.
greenfrog - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 03:16 PM EDT (#430272) #
I find Garcia a frustrating pitcher to watch. He sort of appears to be a "late inning power arm" without actually being very effective in that role.
Magpie - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 03:27 PM EDT (#430273) #
I find Garcia a frustrating pitcher to watch.

Especially against the Orioles, who have generally made a habit of abusing him (.313/.327/.604) - he's 1-3, 9.00 in 12 games against them in his career.
uglyone - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#430274) #
this team is so...blah.
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#430275) #
Another 0-fer with RISP. Maddening.
Gerry - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#430276) #
Biggio almost homered by pulling a 101 mph fastball.
Nigel - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#430277) #
Other than a two or three month stretch at the beginning of last year, I don't think there's any evidence to suggest that Garcia is a high leverage reliever. I agree that getting off that commitment to him for next year would be a good idea, but I don't think that they have enough viable arms to really accomplish that.

I think the evidence is getting pretty strong that the Jays are, at best, the 4th best team in their division.
92-93 - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#430278) #
Biggio also missed a game-tying double by an inch or two. Those plays over the bag should be reviewable.
SK in NJ - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#430279) #
I don’t expect this FO to do it, but as mentioned previously I wouldn’t be against a “best of both worlds” trade deadline where they look to sell high on certain players while also trying to add pieces to help in 2023. It wouldn’t be popular from an optics standpoint which is why it will never happen, but that might be the best way to stack the team up in 2024 and 2025 without punting 2023. For example, Pearson looks more than capable of closing, and 2.5 years of Romano should be worth a lot. Then there’s Kiermaier who is almost certainly going to decline offensively from this point on, so trading him, moving Varsho to CF where he’s more valuable to the team, and trying to acquire a LF with a better offensive profile from a selling team may not be the worst idea. They are obviously more likely to stay the course and add pieces to the existing roster but I’m not sure the 2023 team is the one to go all in for.
hypobole - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#430280) #
Prior to today, 12 batters with 20+ PA's over the past 30 days. The best was Springer at 164 wRC+. 10th best Kirk at 97, which is pretty good for 10th best.

The 2 who have really struggled are Chapman at 76 wRC+ and Vlad at 70 wRC+ - the heart of the order.

Kikuchi has averaged 5 IP per start. ERA an unimpressive 4.31 with an FIP much worse. But 4.31 ERA is actually OK for a #5 starter. And the best thing he's done is made all 14 starts by staying healthy. That has real value on this years team.
Nigel - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#430281) #
I know that this wasn't your point, but the 20-1 games masks how poor this offence has been for the past 30 days. In the past 30 days the Jays have scored 123 runs in 29 games (4.2 per game) which is below their season average (4.55 per game). Taking out the 20-1 game and the offence has been scoring at a near league low rate (3.5 per game). Run scoring is a big problem for this team right now.
Nigel - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#430282) #
BTW - to give some context to that number, the two lowest scoring teams in baseball (A's and Tigers) are scoring at about 3.6 runs per game on the season.
Kasi - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#430284) #
Yes the Jays have good rate numbers. They have good average, walk rates, middle in power but they’re just very very bad at sequencing. Wouldn’t surprise me if we were bottoms in RISP numbers.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 07:36 PM EDT (#430285) #
The difference between the Blue Jays and Orioles so far has everything to do with sequencing and hitting in high leverage situations.  Here are the Blue Jay team batting splits and here are the O's team batting splits.  And here are the league splits.  The Jays have hit better than league average with no one on, and worse than league average with runners on and in particular with runners in scoring position.  The Jays have hit better than league average in low leverage situations and worse in high leverage situations.  The O's are the exact opposite.  Sequencing and clutch.  Humbug.
uglyone - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 08:57 PM EDT (#430286) #
horwitz called up
vw_fan17 - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#430287) #
Yeah, at this point, the team seems solidly middle of the road. MIGHT get a wild card, might not. Probably not too far out if they don't.

Chapman has really fallen off the last little while, and Vlad has been our 2nd best 1Bman. Kiermaier is only behind Bichette for highest OPS on the team, and Belt is behind KK. With neither one of those locked up for next year, and probably wanting a mint to do so (when they are both on the wrong side of 32), AND the cupboard being bare...
Not sure there's any single move we can make to do much. I mean, if Ryu can come back in a month and pitch like he has in the past, AND Green can be great, that would really help, but it might be too little and/or too late.

Not sure I have anything new to say - but unless we have a huge turnaround, at the trade deadline, I'd be open to trading almost any player except maybe Bichette and retool. And try to get Bichette on a long term deal before then.
Gerry - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#430288) #
Anthony Bass cleared waivers today and was released.
Gerry - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#430289) #
horwitz called up

I don't know if this is true but he wasn't in the Bisons lineup tonight.

The Jays face a lefty, Perez, tomorrow, then two righties.
GabrielSyme - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#430290) #
If you judged by quality of contact, the Jays should have won today. The Orioles had hits on five balls with an xBabip of below .500; the Jays just two. And the Jays hit into a bunch of gloves: five outs with an xBABIP of .500 or better, while the O's had none. That's an eight-baserunner swing from what we might regard as neutral luck.

uglyone - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#430291) #
Mike Green - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#430292) #
Annie Lennox and the other Dave Stewart, UO?

Would I say something that isn't true
I'm asking you, sugar
Would I lie to you?
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, June 15 2023 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#430293) #
upcoming dates:

1. first-year player draft - 24 days away (July 9th)
2. trade deadline - 47 days away (August 1st)
3. last day of regular season - 108 days away (October 1st)

the G.M. can certainly raise his profile with a successful draft / trade deadline.

and, of course, where the Blue Jays finish in the standings looms large.

the aftermath of those 3 results will guide ownership's decision on Ross Atkins' future.
ISLAND BOY - Friday, June 16 2023 @ 03:13 AM EDT (#430295) #
Numbers 2 & 3 maybe, but the amateur draft can take several years to be properly evaluated, by which time Atkins may be gone anyway.
Jonny German - Friday, June 16 2023 @ 05:17 AM EDT (#430296) #
2022 Blue Jays in Alek Manoah starts: 18-13, a 94-win pace

2023 Blue Jays in non-Manoah starts: 34-23, a 97-win pace

It's a completely different story this season if Manoah had regressed a normal amount rather than all the way down to Florida.
bpoz - Friday, June 16 2023 @ 08:10 AM EDT (#430297) #
We are only 1.5 games back of being 4th in the AL. We are right in the hunt. I expect positives and negatives to happen going forward.

I am looking forward to the draft July 9th. Thanks for the info Mr Cowboy.

There is a list of about 200 draft eligible players. I don't have any favorites yet.
Chuck - Friday, June 16 2023 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#430299) #
The Jays have hit better than league average in low leverage situations and worse in high leverage situations.

There is a positive takeaway from all this. A return to an average level of chance bodes well for the Jays and not so well for the Orioles. I see the Jays' underperformance to be more attributable to the vagaries of randomness than to issues of character (the media's default position when assessing events in the sporting arena).

Mike Green - Friday, June 16 2023 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#430304) #
I agree, Chuck.  Biggio's ball over the foul pole yesterday wasn't technically high leverage, but it is plays like that are essentially random. 
92-93 - Friday, June 16 2023 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#430333) #
The Jays need a frontline SP, not a league-average one.

But what they really need is for Guerrero to be an elite hitter. Without that, this just isn't that good a team.
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