Adley Rutschman has been the Orioles' best player

He seems poised to have the career that many hoped Wieters would enjoy. Both are switch-hitting catchers, which you don't see often.

Yennier Cano is a freak/fluke to pay attention to this series. After years of mediocrity, plagued especially by wildness, he has allowed 0 walks and just 4 hits in 22 IP. Lots of BABIP luck, of course, but 0 walks is 0 walks.

Their starting pitching is OK. Their bullpen is good.

Cedric Mullins has been very good this year. The Jays need to remember to pitch Santander up the zone.
Overall, they have a pretty deep lineup, but their bench is really bad.

They have 4 regular left bats and  2 switch hitters, so I would think Kikuchi and Gausman will be OK but it's going to be difficult for Manoah.

So who has Baltimore done well/poorly against?

• Detroit: 6-1, clearly an easy mark for them
• Oakland: 3-1, lost a game to Oakland?
• Boston: 3-3
• 2-0 vs Washington (5-0 runs for/against)
• 2-1 against ChiSox, KC, Pit, TB, Tex
• 1-2 vs NYY and Atlanta

So vs current first place teams: 5-4
vs current last place teams: 10-5 (3 losses vs Boston who are only last due to being in the AL East, they'd be first in the AL Central).
vs AL East: 6-6

Jays...

• 3-0 vs Atlanta, ChiSox, Pit
• 3-1 vs KC
• 3-4 vs NYY
• 2-1 vs Detroit, LAA, Seattle, TB
• 1-2 vs Houston, StL
• 0-2 vs Philly
• 0-4 vs Boston (ouch)

Vs first place teams: 6-3
vs last place teams: 4-7

Kind of interesting there. The Jays have beat up on the good teams, but been bad vs the worst. Of course, they played a fair amount vs the 'good bad' teams (St Louis, Boston). BR's site has something called SRS to rate team quality and St Louis is the best at that for the NL Central, yet are last in the standings that matter. vs AL East 5-9 (ouch)

Basically, the Jays have had a tough schedule as we all knew, Baltimore has had an easier one. It'll be interesting to see if this results in the Jays going 2-1 this weekend (I sure hope they do, or 3-0).

switch-hitting catchers, which you don't see often.

That seems intuitively true. After immediately thinking "Ted Simmons" I had to pause for a moment before names like Posada and Varitek came to mind. But is it true? How would we know? Is there anyone out there silly enough to look at the lists of the top 100 at each position and count up all the switch-hitters?

That was a rhetorical question. You all know by now that I'm exactly that silly.

As it turns out, just six of the 100 men who have caught the most games in the majors are switch-hitters (the other three are Schang, Ashby, and Wynegar.) Switch-hitters tend to congregate at three positions in the middle of the diamond: shortstop (20 of the top 100), second base (19) and centre field (14). Just 7 of the top 100 first baseman were switch-hitters and the same is true at third base. Left field is the same as catcher, just 6 of the top 100. But the position where we never see switch-hitters is right field, which has just Ken Singleton and Kevin Bass among the 100 players with the most games in RF.

Most games played by a switch-hitter at each position? Ted Simmons (c), Eddie Murray (1b), Roberto Alomar (2b), Chipper Jones (3b), Omar Vizquel (ss), Tim Raines (lf), Bernie Williams (cf), Ken Singleton (rf).

Strange but true: Pete Rose, a switch-hitter who played more major league games than anyone, doesn't even crack the top 150 at any position.

Bichette has really found himself as a hitter (remember when people wanted to ship him out after the first half last year?).

Second half 2022: .337/.378/.543 (wRC+ 163)

First half 2023: .328/.372/.527 (wRC+ 150)

There was some interesting footage shown last night of Bo repeatedly hitting off a tee, refining his approach on tough inside pitches. He then executed on that quality approach during the game.

FYI: ex-Jay Bradley Zimmer was just released by the Dodgers - he was in AAA for them and 'hit' 219/322/343. The overall Dodgers AAA team has a batting line of 249/366/407 for comparison. (in Oaklahoma City)

John N - given that the last place team in the AL East (currently Boston) is giving all indications of being as good as or better than the two Central division leaders, I'm not sure that's the best way to assess strength of schedule issues:). Nor is it overly really relevant - the Jays are going to have to beat at least one (if not two) of the AL East teams to make the playoffs.

I'm inclined to think that the position is more a matter of throwing left handed.
First basemen are more likely to throw with their left arm and third basemen pretty much always throw with their right arm. Catcher and outfield are neutral position with respect to throwing.

CF and middle infielder tend to be smaller guys, so maybe there is a correlation with respect to size.

Also, switch hitter are mostly right handed hitters who teach themselves to bat left because its advantageous.
A left handed guy shouldn't bother. Varsho and Belt, both use the bunt as an equalizer.

H e then executed on that quality approach during the game.

Yeah Bichette had some real quality at bats fouling off a bunch of tough pitches. May be he should share his regimen with Varsho.

Glad to see Kiermaier and Guerrero back in the lineup, and Manoah line up against another pitcher who has struggled.

Terrible picture on Apple TV. Freezing as well. Might not be watchable.

Huh. Seems to be working ok for me

The Jays seem to be having some trouble on the bases recently.

not only do they keep cheating, but they're allowed to keep cheating.

All four umpires conferred with Yankees starting pitcher Clarke Schmidt during a foreign substance check. Looks like Schmidt was told to wash his hands or change something.

Schmidt has thrown four scoreless innings vs. Reds.

— Bobby Nightengale (@nightengalejr) May 19, 2023

I'm inclined to think that the position is more a matter of throwing left handed.

I think a lot of switch-hitters come from the tribe of players with speed and defensive skills - which is who ends up in the middle of the field - but not impressive offensive ability. Someone tells them that they should learn how to switch hit and use their speed.

Letting Jays-killers Judge and then Mountcastle beat up on the home team in consecutive series…not bright.

might want to try moving Belt up the order.

The Jays are in a funk. They’re playing just well enough to lose, each of the last five games (they only won one of them because of Bassitt’s excellent performance).

I hope it’s a funk. The alternative is that they’re getting beaten by better teams.

When MLB ordered special baseballs with “extra carry” for Yankees games during Judge’s home run chase last year, it became clear that there is a double standard in baseball. The Yankees get special treatment.

Ross Atkins might be edging into Kyle Dubas territory. Some good moves to be sure, but the players and coaches aren’t quite getting it done.

Meanwhile, AA has added a World Series championship to his resume.

Dubas only got 5 years.

This is year 8 for Ross.

I still maintain that the most fearsome Jays team during this window of contention might end up being the one they fielded on the last day of the 2021 season. That was the team no opponent wanted to face in the postseason.

Pitching is mostly fine (Manoah and Kikuchi being meh but the other 3 being good) and bullpen has been good and defence good. But between the tough schedule and the offence scuffling it’s rough. Not like the Teoscar trade has been bad but they need someone like that in their lineup. But to me it boils down to 3 things.

1. Catchers being bad
2. Springer and Varsho being bad
3. Bench being bad (also makes 2b bad)

Obviously only forty or so games in but the Varsho trade looks bad now. Heck just having Gurriel around would solve 3. But the biggest things is too many black holes in the lineup and now that Chapman has predictably cooled down and Vlad got hurt the lineup is very thin.

Also doesn’t help that the minors don’t have anyone ready to step up on either side of the ball. Pearson thankfully has been good but there is no bats and no more pitchers ready to step up. Pretty condemning for their farm system in both drafting and development.

If they could develop relief pitching the Teoscar trade wouldn’t be necessary. If they could develop outfielders the Varsho trade wouldn’t have been. What’s saving them is they’ve been astute in their FA pickups.

I kinda just feel bad for varsho now. Why are they doing this to him?

Flip Belt and Varsho in the lineup. I expect we’ll see that move made soon.

There’s just such an easy and obvious way to get Varsho out. It’s the same recipe as with Biggio. High velocity and CH’s away. No idea if this was the case in previous years.

adjust Belt up a notch.

I think Varsho has more batspeed than Biggio and can adjust better but they’re not doing him any favors batting him cleanup. Just stick him at 7/8 and leave him there. I think he can rebound and putting him lower should help take some pressure off. Heck even Varshos dad was surprised they were batting him so high.

It doesn’t help that the Jays have been batting Varsho cleanup all year. That’s a lot of pressure on a new arrival on the team and in the AL who doesn’t have the hitting ability for that role in the first place.

I still have hope that he’ll be able to hit to his career norm (which would be very valuable). But subjectively, he looks very beatable at the plate.

What is most worrying to me is that Springer looks like a shell of himself. Not typical regressive production...I mean he looks done, done.


Thats a potential 4-5 win player taken off the roster.

Being five games over .500 in late May doesn't exactly scream panic mode, but Springer has been such a key cog since coming here...and it's even a step down to what he was in Houston.

I too am baffled at the teams insistence at running Varsho out there in anything else other than the 8 or 9 spot. The "balanced" lineup thing was always kind of a cop-out...it's the defence and baserunning they were after.

Caught off guard when Hatch came in. They sent Jackson down to make room, the old "you have options so you are screwed" thing. Bass hasn't earned his slot this year imo. I feel Jackson would be solid as a 7-8 guy in the pen with potential to move up. Hatch is basically there to eat innings.

At some point do the Jays consider sending down Biggio and/or Espinal? Have to figure they’d be better served getting every day at bats in AAA and they’re both contributing absolutely nothing here.

I actually think the team has really improved in the areas they needed to. Berrios has had a bounce back season, the bullpen has been better, the defence overall has been better.

They weren't counting on Kirk and Springer cratering, so I'd imagine most of the big league resources and brainpower is being spent on resurrecting their swings and confidence.

morale seems kinda low, folks. makes me feel sadder than a pig in a dried up mud hole.

Lot of comparison of AA to Atkins which I don’t think is the best comparison. AA inherited a lot when he arrived plus, let’s face it , their WS win at the time was a bit fluky with deadline acquisitions outperforming.

I think the better comparison is Atkins to the Baltimore GM and I’m not sure over time that it’s going to compliment the Jays GM. Baltimore looks very good without any big FA acquisitions and their minor league depth is still looking impressive. Too early to conclude, but hmmm.

The Belt-Varsho flip-flop has finally occurred. Today's batting order is exactly the one I was expecting at the start of the season.

Jansen is also catching Manoah.

grjas, man, Shapirokins also inherited a lot. 

and fluky or not, a WS win is a WS win.  better than a 'have yet to be competitive when it counts, but still trying'.
8 years is too early to conclude?

I don’t think the inheritance on the two is comparable. Sure AA got Vlad but other than that the cupboard was pretty bare. Those trades to get there in 2013/2015 gutted the farm and tbh AA drafted pretty poorly. Chad Jenkins, Deck McGuire, Bickford, Beede, Smith Jr., etc. Once mlb cut the loophole on accumulating comp picks AA just didn’t draft well. The team in 2016 was old with little able to help.

That being said that’s 7 years ago and the inability to promote pitchers and hitters other than a few successes is concerning. That inability has led to trades to shore up immediate needs (like White trade or the Bass/Pop one last year) that has cost them top prospects that could or should have been cheap performers. I think things are improving now but the lack of anyone in AAA right now to step in on either side is damning.

Kasi, the White trade cost Frasso, which may well turn out to bite them in the ass, considering how poorly White has performed

But Groshans in the Bass/Pop trade is hitting 209/300/311 repeating AAA. a 51 wRC+.

Outfield defense is a beautiful thing. Springer just missed a spectacular play in the first, but it cost them a run.

Kiermaier really covered a lot of ground on that latest one.

I don't know about that Magpie, AA put together the best team in baseball in 2015.

Has anyone ever seen a team forget how many mound visits they've made before?

That White/Frasso deal broke one of what I think should be a fundamental rule of baseball trades - never trade pitchers with the Dodgers (current management version) / they appear to know more than you do about pitchers. Frasso looks excellent again.

Nigel, the Stripling trade didn't look good for a while, but he may well have saved our season last year when Ryu went down. And as much as Frasso has impressed, Kendall Williams has not much at all.

Oh I know hypobole:). And no one bats 1000, but they do seems to pull and endless number of P’s out of nowhere.

AA put together the best team in baseball in 2015.

Disagree. Certainly one of the best, but they didn't win a championship, they didn't win their own league, they didn't have the best record in the majors (they were fifth) or in their own league (second). Which sure sounds like the Kyle Dubas Leafs. I've described the Anthopoulos tenure here as something very like four and half years of mediocrity and two months of utter wonderfulness, that ended in disappointment. Which may seem harsh, but that's pretty much what it was.

Has anyone ever seen a team forget how many mound visits they've made before?

Incredibly, no! Although I've seen managers do things that were even dumber, like writing a guy into the starting lineup as DH and sending him out to RF in the first inning, and thereby losing the DH for the entire game. (That was Mike Hargrove.)

Maybe having fun and the home run jacket wasn't a problem

This feels a lot like last's year playoffs.
It's a good thing they got Swanson so Romano doesn't have to come out to save the game in the 8th.

<br>was starting to feel good about this game and contributions from struggling players and this inning has been brutal and its tied.

Still think the pen is the part of this team that is noticeably weaker than the other top clubs. Exhibit A being - Richards feels awfully close to being one of the better higher leverage options right now.

I know we’ve beaten this to a pulp. But my goodness the home plate ump has been awful. Both ways. The O’s announcers having a field day with it.

I hope this is just the bad stretch of the season and not a reflection of how the rest of the season will go

I was in the middle of posting a complaint about the bullpen management and Romano gave it up. I can guarantee Swanson was steamed about getting yanked there and I don't blame him.

If you can't trust your 8th inning guy to get an out there, you're really backing yourself into a corner.

Pretty sure Romano isn't going to this year's All Star Game.

I'm not quite as worried about the 2023 Blue Jays, not yet at least. The first half schedule is stacked against them. So I just want them to be within single digits of the division lead by the break.

I’m not worried about this team per se. I thought this was a 90ish win team before the year started. I think that’s what they appear to be. The worry for me is whether that’s enough to be in the top half of the AL East or not.

Ever since Schneider screwed up with Manoah, it feels like every reliever has had to come in a batter or two early.

I thought it was a good move not to bunt Bichette in the ninth though. You're setting up a bases loaded one out with Belt at the plate whose struck out a ton and is a double play candidate. That's assuming they walk Vladdy.


It is really impressive how Baltimore has built their team. They are straight up solid in all areas, no weaknesses to speak of.

I like the toolset... but if Varsho is gonna be chasing pitches up at his nose (which it seems obvious he cannot catch up to)... this is a problem.

Letting Jays-killers Judge and then Mountcastle beat up on the home team in consecutive series…not bright.
Came here to say exactly this - the very definition of insanity: continuing to try to get the very guys who have killed your team, game after game, out by directly challenging them.

I mean, Judge deserved a fastball to the ribs, IMHO. It's just stupid to pitch to Mountcastle in almost any situation.

It's just stupid to pitch to Mountcastle in almost any situation.

Certainly for this team. Whatever scouting report they have on the guy needs to be dropped into a deep pit, preferably one filled with poisonous snakes.

I mean, Judge is Judge. Miss your spot by an inch or two and there's punishment and that's just the way of things. But the Jays are keeping Mountcastle in the league.

I think the team is in trouble. TB and Baltimore have been better than the Jays this year. The Yankees have been keeping pace without Severino and Rodon and Stanton. The Jays farm system is pretty bare, which will limit their options at the trade deadline and when injuries hit. And the team is struggling against AL East opponents (5-11), which is going to make it that much harder to secure a postseason spot. It’s not hard to envision TB, Baltimore and NYY finishing in the top three slots in the division, blocking the Jays from the playoffs.

That wouldn't block them, though. All three wildcards could come from the same division, which is certainly possible with the schedule being more balanced.

Good point. Yes, of course that could happen (especially with the balanced schedule). I wonder it MLB would finally consider realignment if that happened.

Good point. Yes, of course that could happen (especially with the balanced schedule). I wonder it MLB would finally consider realignment if that happened.

I'm guessing it's more likely they'll go right back to the un-balanced schedule at the insistence of every other team not in the AL East. They might all be fed up already. If you're ever looking for a fun exercise, add the total wins in each division. Last I checked, the AL East was 20+ wins ahead of any other division. 30-40 ahead of some. After 40 games.

Ok so maybe blow it up trade wveryone

You're never as good as you look when you're winning, and never as bad as you look when you're losing.

AA was excellent in Toronto, excellent in Atlanta and didn't sell the farm when going for it in the last year (they still had a decent farm when he left and he didn't give up too much). That said, Atkins/Shapiro have done a very good job on this team overall over the past few years including this year. Not everything is a hit, but more hits than misses and a pretty strong team overall.

I still expect us to be in the playoffs this year.

Did it occur to anybody--perhaps I'm a little bent--that Schneider's extra mound visit was intended to remove Manoah sans insult?

I doubt the manager would decide to screw up on purpose. Strange things do happen though.

I'm about at greenfrog's concern level. The fact Vladdy doesn't have a home run at the dome this year could be just a weird aberration...or it could be he's playing through a significant knee injury that is sapping his power.

And it's not all bad. I feel like the rotation is the team's strong point so far this year. Bassitt, Gausman and Berrios have all pitched well. Kikuchi has been much better.

Varsho gets a breather. Lukes gets an opportunity for his first MLB hit.

it could be he's playing through a significant knee injury that is sapping his power.

Vlad on the road: .348/.419/.630, .283 ISO

Seems more mental than physical to me

Any word on Espinal's injury?

I also share greenfrog's sentiment. My major concern is the bullpen and manager. Farm system too.

If this FO goes all in with Bo instead of Vladdy, I'm okay with that.

No word on Espinal's injury. He hasn't been placed on the IL but Otto Lopez is in the building, just in case.

AA was mediocre all the way. He drafted poorly. He picked bad managers.
He went all in in 2013 and they finished dead last.
Ironically, the successful 2015 team was mostly accidentally good and there are no players from that teams that went on to have truly great careers.

Lucky AA inherited a 75 win team with no prospects and in 5yrs turned them into contender and probably the favorite 2 years running.


The current crew have given us 8yrs of bupkis, despite inheriting an elite team, and their current marquee player.

no players from that teams that went on to have truly great careers

I have NO clue where you are setting the bar, but it's really high if Bautista, Encarnacion, Donaldson, Tulowitzki, Martin, or Buehrle don't meet it. They all had great careers. It's true.

the Chairman of the Board had another matter with Ujiri's contract.

Gillick is one-of-a-kind. Ash, J.P., A.A., & Atkins each possess strengths and weaknesses.

the Chairman could purchase Andrew Friedman's contract. here comes the money.

2015 certainly opened the eyes of the accountants.

Their current marquee player has...been worth 10 fWAR over 2300 career PAs.

I haven't seen a Jays pitcher with such poor run support since Stieb. And Gausman seems likeable.

Lucky AA inherited a 75 win team with no prospects and in 5yrs turned them into contender and probably the favourite 2 years running.

AA put it together in his last year or so in Toronto and he deserves credit for that. He's made some good moves in Atlanta, but when he arrived in 2018 he had the #1 farm system whereas Atkins had a bottom 5 system. That's why the Baltimore comparison makes more sense.

I’ll repeat what I said yesterday. Once it’s a battle of the pens the best odds are against us.

the successful 2015 team was mostly accidentally good

Let's not get carried away. There was nothing accidental about Anthopoulos' work at the 2015 deadline. He identified his team's biggest need - a really good starting pitcher - and he went and got the best one he could. He also finally realized that defense actually matters, and his other deadline acquisitions (Revere and Tulowitzki) greatly improved the team in that area.

Lucky AA inherited a 75 win team with no prospects and in 5yrs turned them into contender

And let's not get carried away. That 75 win team he inherited, Ricciardi's last team, was quite a bit better than their record suggested. They had outscored their opponents by 27 runs. They won 85 games the very next year, which was better than they would do in each of the four seasons following. And there actually was quite a bit of luck (or very dark magic) involved. No one had planned on a veteran backup infielder suddenly turning into the best hitter in baseball.

Well, no pint in Kikuchi pinch running now. Drat.

did that dark magic include all of Hill, Lind, Wells, Rios, Romero, suddenly turning into unplayable pumpkins?

As I said:(. This pen just isn’t up to it against the top comp.

Baltimore might be full of promise, but they haven't won anything just yet and they put their fanbase through 4 or 5 borderline unwatchable seasons of baseball to do it. I've been pretty satisfied with the overall shape of Blue Jays baseball for the last decade, bumps and all.

And has been a top ~15 hitter since he entered the league.

Hill, Lind, Wells, Rios, Romero

You do know that Rios was already in Chicago when Anthopoulos took over, and Wells was traded away after his rather fine all star season for the 2010 Jays? I know it's your part of your basic world view that Anthopoulos is a Divine Wizard and Atkins is the Town Fool, but sloppy errors like that do not convince.

One thing I've noticed over the years are that young very talented teams (such as Baltimore in 2022/2023) often become seriously competitive sooner than people expect. And sometimes veteran teams with a track record of winning (like Philadelphia after 2011) become very mediocre sooner than people expect.

Thanks for reminding us how AA wizarded away that Wells contract.

Yeah my bad on Rios.

Yeah that prompts me to do a team Age check:

* RF Springer 33
* SS Bichette 25
* 1B Guerrero 24
* DH Belt 35
* 3B Chapman 30
* LF Varsho 26
* C Kirk 24
* 2B Merrifield 34
* CF Kiermaier 33

* C Jansen 28
* UT Biggio 28
* IF Espinal 28



* SP Gausman 32
* SP Manoah 25
* SP Bassitt 34
* SP Berrios 29
* SP Kikuchi 32
* SP Ryu 36
* SP White 28

* RP Romano 30
* RP Swanson 29
* RP Bass 35
* RP Garcia 32
* RP Mayza 31
* RP Cimber 32
* RP Green 32
* RP Richards 30
* RP Pearson 26
* RP Pop 26

The problem I'm having with "competitive windows" is that they undermine the entire concept of sustained winning. When AA came in, he promised us that it would be a long-term rebuild that would make us competitive year after year. Then Bautista and Encarnacion become who they became and we sell the farm. Atkins similarly sells us on the same promise. They're going to restock the cupboards to make sure we'll have wave after wave of prospects coming up. Then the team becomes competitive faster than expected, and the cupboards are empty.

The worst part is that we consistently use our top prospects to make small upgrades instead of big swings. Teams like the Mariners go after Luis Castillo - we go after Dickey and Varsho.

But the two teams I'd want to be more than any other team in baseball are the Dodgers and Rays, both organizations built by Friedman. He exhibited patience, poured it all into strong development, and despite only having one combined World Series - they are perennial contenders.

I'd love to know what that feels like. These boom-bust cycles are exhausting.

Cleveland in 8yrs since Shapiro left: .565w%, 92 win pace

The Jays are now in last place in the division:

TB --
Bal 2.5
NYY 5.5
Bos 7.0
Tor 8.5

There are eight teams in the AL with a better run differential than the Jays.

It's also worth repeating that the team has ended up in this position with a healthy roster. How is it going to perform when some key players get injured?

Long way to go yet but at the same time we're halfway to the trade deadline and if things don't change quick we unbelievably may be forced to sell and re-tool while some of the older contracts may still be tradeable.

I don't think the Blue Jays can do that while they're halfway through spending a few hundred million dollars on a stadium reno. One way or another, they at least need to make the postseason this year and next year.

I think what's adding to the stress over this rough patch is that you are seeing the team make mental errors and miscues that we were told were going to be cleaned up. It was a narrative driven largely by the media in the off season and spring training, yes, but the manager was hired (and hailed himself) as a guy who could enforce accountability. It was a bad week for the skipper tactically and I thought the fat boy chirp was pretty juvenile too...I'm actually surprised more is not being made of that incident.

There’s not much that can be done about scattering walks and hits in the least efficient way imaginable.

But the two things that do upset me are Schneider’s in-game decisions and the organizational failure of having a system with no viable callups.

I'd love to know what that feels like. These boom-bust cycles are exhausting.

We did have that in the Gillick years, the one Jays GM that truly was a wizard. I think we didn’t appreciate at the time how rare that is.

This home stretch is looking like the Mariners road stretch of last year that cost Montoyo his job. If the Jays lose this next seriesI'm betting Mattingly becomes the new manager. This is a big deal. The Kays are going after their ticket holders for more money/increases and it likely won't go well with a last place team.

It is strange thinking about it but yes, Shapiro and Atkins emptied the cupboard after all.

Manoah's start on Saturday was at least somewhat encouraging.  The slider still didn't have the sharp break but he did at least battle his control to a draw.  Baby steps. 

If Manoah can get back on track, it would go a long way toward getting the team back on track. Springer and Kirk are important pieces of the puzzle as well.

I still think Springer may have been impacted by the WC game injury in ways we aren’t fully aware of. He appeared to be very badly hurt on that play. And he’s had several significant injuries in his time with the Jays.

Also, I wonder if the loss of Steve Sanders and/or Ben Cherington to the Pirates has adversely affected the Jays farm system over the last few years. The FO has made some good FA signings but very little talent has bubbled up to the majors in the last few years, apart from Manoah. Something seems to be amiss in the organization’s ability to acquire and develop prospects (unless this is just a temporary dry spell).

time to go down into the Trop and open up a can of whoop.

happy Victoria Day.

Victory. let's have it, boys.

keep ya head up.

So Kirk has a REALLY low average launch angle. 1/4 his career.
Anyone have the ability to look at the half last year when his power disappeared? Guerrero is also back to a very low launch angle. What about other hitters who have struggled this year ( not that Guerrero has struggled until this recent injury, but he's probably hitting too few homers for his power(.

I did a quick check... it's a bunch of guys

yeah I expect Manoah will continue to bounce back.

which is good news because it looks like Kikuchi has fallen back closer to his old self the last 4 starts or so.

and i'm expecting all of Gausman bassitt and berrios to fall off at least a little bit from where they are at so far.

This homestand has sucked, but the old rule of the team is never as bad as it seems when slumping and never as good as it seems when winning holds true. In 1985 when the team won 99 games (still the Jays record) they had a stretch in June going 2-9, from 6 1/2 up to 2 1/2 up - all against AL East teams (of course, there was just East/West and no interleague then) - both wins were in extra innings, 3 losses were 1 run losses. Right now the Jays are 1-6 since the sweep of Atlanta. 1-2 in extras, just 1 game they lost by 1 run (an extra inning game). This came after a 6-2 stretch, preceded by a 5 game losing streak, preceded by a 6 game winning streak. Damn this team is streaky at the moment. When hot they are unbeatable, when cold they are painful.

So what does this mean? Basically try not to get too high or too low as I suspect this whole year will be a rollercoaster. Better one that is dancing on the playoffs than one that is fighting for 500 all year. The AL East will probably have 4 teams make the post-season while 1 misses out. The Jays have fallen into that final out slot but only after a very tough schedule so far. The Yankees have the easiest schedule left, the Jays the 2nd easiest of the AL East teams. The O's have the toughest schedule of anyone in MLB left, Red Sox and Rays are 3/4 for toughest in MLB, Jays 6th, Yankees 10th. Kind of surprised because the Jays have seemed to have a very tough one so far. Next is 4 at the Rays (ouch), 3 at the Twins, day off, 3 vs Brewers, 3 at Mets, 4 vs Astros, 3 vs Twins. Then another day off. The A's come here late in June (23rd to 25th) surrounded by a day off on each end (the easiest 5 days on the schedule I suspect).

If the Jays aren't in better shape by the end of June I'll be a bit worried. August 1st is the trade deadline. As greenfrog pointed out the Jays have TONS of pressure to do well with the renos going on. Gotta convince people to buy overpriced tickets this year and next at least to justify the massive cost. I expect a 90+ win team which should be enough to get into the playoffs then who knows as that is a crapshoot.

A lot of people are saying this is a playoff team but my early season optimism is waning fast. In the series with the Orioles they were 6 for 38 with runners in scoring position. That's pathetic.

There doesn't appear to be any accountability, at least none that's visible from the outside. Accountability used to mean benching guys like Springer and Guerrero for choosing not to hustle. Replacing Montoya with Schneider doesn't seem to have accomplished anything positive and trading away half of Guerrero's clique somehow didn't magically fix his makeup issues. Ugh, this organization is a mess. I wish they'd stop advertising all the things they're fixing until those things are actually fixed.

Ryan Mountcastle will be delighted to see some Blue Jays pitchers

Updated Mountcastle stats:
vs. Toronto: 306/368/981
vs. all others: 251/301/437

He's really not that good a player except for when he faces Toronto. Add to his bat a weak glove and he's a fringe major leaguer.

Oops. vs. Toronto: 306/368/613

Hey Parker. Glad to see your post. One can always quibble about the team’s shortcomings; especially when they are playing like they are now. However I think you’ve put your finger on a really big one. I had hoped that subtracting two of the children would solve the problem. Alas it has not.

fyi, here are the Jays stats through May 21, 2023, using my old scripts.

The A.L. Run Environment is currently up 0.4 runs per 9 innings compared to last year:

 Runs Scored Per 9 IP   Runs Allowed Per 9 IP        Winning Percentage
( 1)     Rangers 6.55 | ( 1)        Rays 3.51 | ( 1)        Rays  34-14  .708
( 2)        Rays 6.13 | ( 2)      Astros 3.58 | ( 2)     Orioles  31-16  .660
( 3)        Rsox 5.60 | ( 3)   Minnesota 3.74 | ( 3)     Rangers  29-17  .630
( 4)      Angels 5.10 | ( 4)     Seattle 4.01 | ( 4)   NYYankees  29-20  .592
( 5)     Orioles 5.09 | ( 5)   NYYankees 4.02 | ( 5)      Astros  27-19  .587
( 6)   Minnesota 4.66 | ( 6)     Rangers 4.17 | ( 6)        Rsox  26-21  .553
( 7)   NYYankees 4.66 | ( 7)     Orioles 4.22 | ( 7)   Minnesota  25-22  .532
( 8)    Bluejays 4.59 | ( 8)   Guardians 4.33 | ( 7)    Bluejays  25-22  .532
( 9)      Astros 4.42 | ( 9)    Bluejays 4.44 | ( 9)      Angels  25-23  .521
(10)     Seattle 4.41 | (10)      Tigers 4.78 | (10)     Seattle  22-24  .478
(11)   White Sox 4.31 | (11)      Angels 4.93 | (11)      Tigers  20-24  .455
(12)      Royals 3.99 | (12)        Rsox 5.27 | (12)   Guardians  20-26  .435
(13)          As 3.74 | (13)   White Sox 5.46 | (13)   White Sox  19-29  .396
(14)      Tigers 3.60 | (14)      Royals 5.52 | (14)      Royals  14-34  .292
(15)   Guardians 3.59 | (15)          As 7.32 | (15)          As  10-38  .208
             Avg 4.70                Avg 4.62                    356-349     

An EqA of .260 is supposed to be league average,
though I may be off a few points from out-of-date park factors and pitchers not batting in the NL anymore, etc.

                Age        EqA   BA  OBP  SLG  R27   ERP   R RBI HR  SB CS   PA
    Matt Chapman          .315 .301 .381 .514  7.18   34  23  24  6   1  2  197
 Kevin Kiermaier          .313 .317 .372 .492  7.04   23  20  13  3   5  0  137
 Vladim Guerrero          .304 .294 .359 .482  6.58   30  25  27  7   2  0  192
     Bo Bichette          .303 .320 .358 .505  6.48   35  28  30  9   1  3  212
    Brandon Belt          .281 .250 .355 .404  5.39   16  13   9  2   0  0  121
  Alejandro Kirk          .264 .234 .357 .327  4.62   15   9  12  2   0  0  129
 Whit Merrifield          .264 .267 .323 .349  4.60   19  20  17  1  13  1  161
 George Springer          .246 .233 .299 .344  3.85   21  24  19  6   8  1  197
    Danny Jansen          .243 .202 .275 .385  3.74   12  13  23  5   0  0  120
  Daulton Varsho          .240 .206 .277 .359  3.64   19  19  16  6   6  1  188
         TORONTO          .271 .256 .327 .406  4.92  232 214 201 50  39 10 1816

                Age        EqA   BA  OBP  SLG  R27   ERP   R RBI HR  SB CS   PA
    Nathan Lukes          .234 .167 .375 .167  3.42    1   2   0  0   0  0    8
 Santiag Espinal          .204 .205 .266 .274  2.41    5   9   7  1   2  1   79
    Cavan Biggio          .141 .127 .179 .238   .95    2   8   4  2   1  1   67
   Jordan Luplow         -.158 .000 .143 .000 -1.28    0   1   0  0   0  0    7

REqA is based on Runs allowed,
CEqA is based on Component stats (H, BB, HR),
DEqA is Defense-independent (just K, BB, HR, rest normalized assuming .300 babip if I remember right):

                Age    W  L  ERA   REqA CEqA DEqA  dH   IP   H/9 BB/9 HR/9  K/9
   Chris Bassitt       5  2  3.05  .225 .217 .273 -15  56.0  5.3  3.7  1.0  7.7
   Kevin Gausman       2  3  3.14  .242 .234 .219   6  63.0  8.1  1.6   .9 11.6
   Yusei Kikuchi       5  1  4.08  .252 .290 .299  -1  46.3  9.5  2.3  2.3  8.4
    Jose Berrios       3  4  4.61  .268 .261 .251   4  52.7  9.2  2.1  1.0  8.9
     Alek Manoah       1  4  5.15  .283 .307 .308   1  50.7  9.8  5.9  1.6  7.1
         TORONTO      25 22  4.01  .256 .262 .269 -10 419.7  8.1  3.3  1.3  9.3

                Age    W  L  ERA   REqA CEqA DEqA  dH   IP   H/9 BB/9 HR/9  K/9
       Tim Mayza       1  1  1.13  .174 .228 .199   2  16.0  9.0  1.7   .0  9.0
   Jordan Romano       3  2  3.32  .228 .250 .240   1  19.0  8.1  2.8   .9 11.4
    Erik Swanson       2  2  3.52  .233 .227 .274  -5  23.0  5.1  4.3  1.6 11.0
    Nate Pearson       1  0  2.25  .239 .241 .250   0  12.0  7.5  3.0   .8  9.0
     Adam Cimber       0  0  4.50  .257 .283 .341  -3  10.0  7.2  3.6  2.7  5.4
 Trevor Richards       0  0  4.50  .269 .281 .266   2  18.0  8.0  5.5  1.5 14.0
    Anthony Bass       0  0  5.65  .294 .290 .277   1  14.3 10.0  4.4  1.3  8.2
     Yimi Garcia       1  2  5.82  .301 .279 .258   3  21.7  9.6  3.7  1.2 10.8
        Zach Pop       1  1  6.59  .311 .278 .315  -3  13.7  7.2  4.0  2.6  9.2

                Age    W  L  ERA   REqA CEqA DEqA  dH   IP   H/9 BB/9 HR/9  K/9
    Thomas Hatch       0  0   .00  .000 .402 .249   0    .3 27.0   .0   .0   .0
     Jay Jackson       0  0  3.00  .219 .244 .366  -2   3.0  3.0  6.0  3.0  6.0

Some others:
                Age      EqA   BA  OBP  SLG  R27   EqR   R RBI HR  SB CS   PA
   Marcus Semien    TEX .309 .305 .385 .492  7.28   35  43  38  7   7  1  213
     Riley Adams    WAS .304 .300 .344 .600  7.13    5   3   6  2   0  0   32
    Rowdy Tellez    MIL .293 .246 .346 .522  6.28   23  19  25 11   0  0  156
  Randal Grichuk    COL .292 .344 .406 .475  7.20    9  11   5  1   1  0   69
 Lourdes Gurriel    ARZ .290 .304 .362 .525  6.69   25  27  25  7   1  0  174
 Corey Dickerson    WAS .279 .267 .313 .533  5.74    2   3   3  1   0  0   16
   Rob Refsnyder    BOS .279 .275 .375 .377  5.54   10  12  16  1   1  0   80
    Kevin Pillar    ATL .268 .260 .293 .494  5.16   11  11  13  5   2  0   82
       Yan Gomes    CHC .267 .293 .306 .500  5.48   12  13  18  6   1  0   98
 Travis D'arnaud    ATL .265 .314 .340 .431  5.03    6   4   6  1   0  0   53
    Raimel Tapia    BOS .263 .266 .338 .359  4.78    9  11   7  1   5  1   71
 Teosc Hernandez    SEA .260 .246 .284 .419  4.25   23  20  24  8   2  1  190
   Brandon Drury    LAA .256 .231 .263 .449  4.25   20  18  23  7   0  1  167
   Reese McGuire    BOS .252 .306 .333 .361  4.31    8   6   8  0   0  0   75
  Gabriel Moreno    ARZ .251 .311 .339 .387  4.67   13   8  17  1   2  0  127
     Kevin Smith    OAK .180 .171 .192 .303  1.73    4   8   7  3   1  0   78
  Josh Donaldson    NYY .173 .125 .176 .313  1.66    1   2   1  1   0  0   17
    Aledmys Diaz    OAK .170 .183 .234 .231  1.51    5   8   6  1   1  0  111
  Jackie Bradley    KAN .141 .145 .211 .205   .98    3   8   4  0   0  0   90
  Tyler Heineman    PIT .108 .111 .200 .111   .53    0   1   0  0   1  0   10
   Cal Stevenson    SFG .070 .000 .250 .000   .18    0   1   0  0   0  0   12
  Jake Marisnick    CHW-.209 .000 .000 .000 -2.75    0   1   0  0   0  0    2

                      W  L  ERA   REqA CEqA DEqA  dH   IP   H/9 BB/9 HR/9  K/9
  Tayler Saucedo SEA  1  0   .00  .000 .099 .174  -1   8.0  4.5  1.1   .0 10.1
    Jeff Hoffman PHI  0  0   .00  .165 .063 .117   0   6.0  3.0  3.0   .0 16.5
   Jimmy Cordero NYY  3  1  2.14  .188 .181 .224  -4  21.0  5.6  2.1   .4  8.6
   Miguel Castro ARZ  2  1  2.61  .202 .184 .224  -4  20.7  5.7  3.0   .4  8.3
    Jesse Chavez ATL  0  0  2.21  .208 .228 .217   1  20.3  7.5  2.7   .4 11.1
     Bryan Baker BAL  3  1  2.86  .211 .219 .234  -1  22.0  5.7  5.3   .4 11.5
  Marcus Stroman CHC  3  4  3.05  .215 .217 .237  -6  56.0  6.9  3.4   .6  8.2
       Brad Hand COL  2  1  3.24  .215 .206 .177   2  16.7  7.0  3.8   .0 13.5
 Anth Desclafani SFG  3  3  3.09  .225 .215 .234  -5  55.3  7.8  1.1   .7  6.7
 Kendal Graveman CHW  1  2  3.26  .233 .221 .276  -5  19.3  5.1  3.7  1.4  8.8
    Zach Jackson OAK  2  1  2.50  .234 .269 .238   3  18.0  9.0  5.0   .5 11.5
       Matt Gage HOU  0  0  4.50  .260 .316 .288   1   4.0 11.3  4.5  2.3 11.3
 Ju Merryweather CHC  0  0  5.09  .263 .253 .236   2  17.7  9.2  3.1  1.0 10.2
     Steven Matz STL  0  5  5.05  .277 .295 .270   8  46.3 11.1  3.5  1.4  8.4
 Noa Syndergaard LAD  1  3  5.88  .293 .284 .272   4  41.3 10.7  1.3  1.3  6.5
    Matthew Boyd DET  3  3  6.21  .294 .278 .278   1  37.7  9.3  3.8  1.4  7.9
   Dominic Leone NYM  0  1  7.04  .312 .334 .309   2   7.7 14.1  2.3  2.3  4.7
  Ross Stripling SFG  0  2  7.24  .315 .312 .309   2  32.3 11.4  2.8  2.8  7.2
      Aaron Loup LAA  0  2  7.00  .340 .317 .240   4   9.0 14.0  5.0   .0  8.0
      Robbie Ray SEA  0  1  8.10  .406 .339 .302   1   3.3 10.8 13.5   .0  8.1
      Sean Nolin FLA  0  0 18.00  .445 .432 .380   2   3.0 21.0  6.0  6.0  6.0

The raw data input to my scripts was taken from http://www.dougstats.com/2023.html .