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Game Threads Toronto at Philadelphia, May 9-10
The road trip concludes, with a visit to the home of the defending NL champs.


The Jays have played the Phillies quite a bit over the years - more than any other NL team, in fact (we're obviously not counting the Brewers, who were an AL opponent for the first 20 years of the Jays' existence.) It's gone well - the Jays are 42-28 against Philadelphia, which is a nice, tidy .600 winning percentage. The only teams Toronto has beaten more frequently are Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, but the Jays have played just 21 games against each franchise.

Trivia time? So which AL franchise would the Jays have defeated most often? And which AL franchise would they have their best winning percentage against? (In case this question has a different answer, and the fact that I'm bothering to ask probably represents a Great Big Clue that it does...)

The Jays visited Citizens Bank Park just last September, and split a pair of games. The first was that ridiculous 18-11 game; the second was a ten inning affair won by the Phillies when Matt Vierling drove in the Zombie Runner. Kevin Gausman and Zack Wheeler were the starters; they exchanged zeroes for a few innings before turning it over to the bullpens. The two of them have a rematch tomorrow.

The Philles have been scuffling a bit in the early going. Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler - the two starters the Jays will face - have merely been kind of adequate, and Tajuan Walker and Bailey Falter have been downright terrible. They're also not scoring as many runs as they expected , but Bryce Harper is back in the lineup and looks like he intends to correct that all by himself.

Matchups

Tue 9 May - Manoah (1-2, 4.71) vs Nola (2-2, 4.64)
Wed 10 May - Gausman (2-3, 3.86) vs Wheeler (3-2, 4.86)
Posted by Magpie on Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 09:37 AM EDT.
Toronto at Philadelphia, May 9-10 | 64 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
mathesond - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#428559) #
Ooh, fun trivia questions!

For the most wins, I will guess Baltimore, if for no other reason than the 24-10 game back in '78.

As for best winning %, I dunno...how about the Rangers?
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Mike Green - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#428560) #
Just a reminder that the Jays have played 23 games on the road and are 12-11 with a 115-117 RS/RA.  They have played 12 games at home and are 9-3 with a 58-36 RS/RA. 
It's a fine start obviously.  The upcoming part of the schedule is tough, even if mostly at home.  We'll see if they can continue to play .600 ball.
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mathesond - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 11:00 AM EDT (#428561) #
Win at home, split on the road, isn't that the old formula?
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electric carrot - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#428562) #
No research guesses:

Most Wins:
Baltimore?

Best Percentage:
Seattle?
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Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#428563) #
I agree the most wins must be against Baltimore. A division rival (6 series per season) plus the O's losing record from 1998 to 2012 or so. Toronto swept Baltimore 5 times circa 2016?

The clue suggests best winning % might be against an N.L. opponent. The Blue Jays usually beat the Cubs?
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Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 11:30 AM EDT (#428564) #
Oh, best win % vs. A.L. opponents. That's a tough one.
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John Northey - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 12:10 PM EDT (#428565) #
Hmm .. Angels or A's maybe for win%?
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Magpie - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#428566) #
Everyone got the Orioles (384-321, .545) - the Jays have a .561 percentage against another AL opponent, a Central Division team.
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Magpie - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#428567) #
It's a fine start obviously.

Agreed. If you're playing .600 ball, and you've had twice as many road games as home games, you're doing all right.
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92-93 - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#428569) #
The Rays lineup is off to an incredible start. Their CF Margot has the only sub-100 OPS+, but his caddy Siri is at 107. Even their "bench" players, Walls and Raley, have OPS+s of 145 and 156. Wander Franco has a higher fWAR than Chapman with a more sustainable offensive profile. What a dangerous squad.
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Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#428570) #
The St. Louis Cardinals are dead last in the National League. Worst start since 1973.

Wait, not so fast, mister! Let's go Mets! tonight vs. the Reds!
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vw_fan17 - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#428571) #
The AL Central clue reinforces my wild guess of Cleveland?
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uglyone - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 01:07 PM EDT (#428572) #
Best team WRC+ in mlb history


* 1. 2023 TBR 142
* 2. 1928 SLS 138
* 3. 1926 SLS 136
* 4. 1925 SLS 135
* 5. 1875 BSN 135
* 6. 1876 CHI 135
* 7. 1930 SLS 133
* 8. 1934 ND 132
* 9. 1884 STL 132
* 10. 1927 SLS 128


Best in modern MLB history:

* 1. 2023 TBR 142
* 2. 2019 HOU 124
* 3. 2020 NYM 123
* 4. 2017 HOU 121
* 5. 1976 CIN 120


(big) regression is coming.
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soupman - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 01:21 PM EDT (#428573) #
my gut says the chisox. just seems like a team that i don't ever remember sweeping the jays even in years they probably should or could have.
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Nigel - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#428574) #
Regression is definitely coming on the run scoring side of TB's ledger but with Glasnow and Fairbanks close(ish) to returning their run prevention should hold up. With Franco taking a leap forward, its going to be very tough to take the division - fluky starts still bank wins that you get to keep at the end of the year.
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Eephus - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 01:36 PM EDT (#428575) #
the Jays have a .561 percentage against another AL opponent, a Central Division team.

Cleveland? I'm theorizing that the Clevelands were consistently dreadful when they shared the AL East with the Jays for a couple of decades, and then got extremely good in the mid-90s right around when MLB added the third division (just in time for Toronto to not play them as often).
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soupman - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#428576) #
they're 5 runs scored clear of the rangers, but 20 runs allowed ahead of the field.

they've had a light schedule so far, but how much regression and on which side(s) of the ball?

my money is on offence. i don't see them continuing to hit nearly two HR for every one the jays hit, for example. but i also think they, like the jays, have a nicely constructed roster for the rules changes.

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BlueMonday - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#428579) #
Another no research guess for the best Jays winning %age …. With the Great Big Clue, I’m gonna say the AL era Brewers.
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hypobole - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#428580) #
Royals. They've killed us in the postseason, but they haven't made it often, with lengthy stretches of mediocrity.
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Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#428581) #
Bernie Brewer is my hero.
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Magpie - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#428582) #
And still no one has it?
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John Northey - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#428583) #
Maybe for win% the team the Jays first beat - the Chicago White Sox? 
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Magpie - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#428584) #
The Jays have an awful record against the Brewers (122-165, .425) and we should all be thankful they're in the Other League. The only teams the Jays have been worse against are the Mets (11-20) and the Dodgers (7-14).
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Magpie - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#428585) #
I believe every non AL East team has been suggested, except Detroit and someone else. (It's not Detroit.)
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Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#428586) #
By process of elimination, the Twins?

tsn.ca: " Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will play first base and bat second Tuesday night against the Philadelphia Phillies. "

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Magpie - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#428587) #
Finally!
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Magpie - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#428588) #
I think it's Data Table time...

                       GPL     W     L    T    PCT
                    
Cincinnati             21     14     7    0    .667
Pittsburgh             18     11     7    0    .611
Philadelphia           70     42    28    0    .600
Minnesota             410    230   180    0    .561
Chicago Cubs           18     10     8    0    .556

Montreal/Washington    69     38    31    0    .551
Baltimore             705    384   321    0    .545
Detroit               446    241   205    0    .540
San Diego              15      8     7    0    .533
Kansas City           419    220   199    0    .525

Colorado               21     11    10    0    .524
Seattle               419    217   202    0    .518
Chicago White Sox     420    217   202    1    .517
Texas                 442    226   216    0    .511
Atlanta                61     31    30    0    .508

Cleveland             440    217   221    2    .493
Los Angeles Angels    441    217   224    0    .492
Oakland               438    209   229    0    .477
Arizona                19      9    10    0    .474
Tampa Bay             438    200   238    0    .457

Boston                702    320   382    0    .456
St. Louis              22     10    12    0    .455
San Francisco          22     10    12    0    .455
New York Yankees      699    315   384    0    .451
Houston                65     29    36    0    .446

Miami                  34     15    19    0    .441
Milwaukee             287    122   165    0    .425
New York Mets          31     11    20    0    .355
Los Angeles Dodgers    21      7    14    0    .333
These are the figures at the end of 2022, so the sweep of the. Pirates means they now have a 14-7 mark against both Cincinnati and Pittsburgh. And the sweep in Fenway means they have now lost to Boston more often than any other opponent, although their updated winning percentage against the Red Sox (.453) is still slightly better than what they've done against the Yankees. Who, as you all know, are the focus of all evil in the modern world.
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Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#428590) #
The Blue Jays came along shortly after Harmon Killebrew retired. I didn't know he played one season for Kansas City (1975) at the end of his career.
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scottt - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#428591) #
Aaron Nola has been about league average, but  Zack Wheeler has just been unlucky.
He's sporting one of the best FIPS of his career. HR rate is tiny, K rate is at over 10/9, BB is low.
The Phillies outfield defense looked terrible on paper last year. It's probably still bad.
Luck tends to run out eventually.
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Nigel - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 08:12 PM EDT (#428593) #
It's beginning to look like Manoah's lack of control is a real issue.
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lexomatic - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#428594) #
It's a very  real issue. Though I guess the silver lining is it may save on long term contract costs (though downside is the team may not want one if he doesn't figure stuff out).
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lexomatic - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 08:51 PM EDT (#428595) #
Following on gameday. Seems like Pearson was just throwing a ton of waste pitches. Did he have command/ control ssues?
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greenfrog - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 09:10 PM EDT (#428596) #
Springer got a pitch to hammer, an 0-1 FB out over the plate, but he fouled it off. Then struck out. Tough PA. Not sure I would have PH Springer for Varsho there.

Let’s see what Chapman can do.
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lexomatic - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#428597) #
2 Well that was disappointing.
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Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 09:22 PM EDT (#428598) #
Wow, Trevor Richards.
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Nigel - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 09:46 PM EDT (#428599) #
Lots of time to solve this but the pen needs another arm or two.
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Gerry - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 09:56 PM EDT (#428600) #
It seems that every time Schneider tries to get a second inning out of a reliever it backfires on him.
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soupman - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#428601) #
Chad Green will be ready at some point, I’d hope.
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Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#428602) #
Reds 7 - Mets 6

Wednesday matinée - Blue Jays vs. Phillies - 4:05 pm eastern.
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Kasi - Tuesday, May 09 2023 @ 11:45 PM EDT (#428603) #
Very disappointing that Manoah is our least dependable pitcher now. Hope he battles back and finds some humility on all of this adversity.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 07:16 AM EDT (#428605) #
Really bad choice by Schneider to ask Richards to pitch into the 8th, and compounded by not being prepared for the possibility of it going badly. He had 5 more fresh relievers at his disposal thanks to the off day Monday, with another off day coming Thursday... why try to stretch Richards?
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Nigel - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#428606) #
The Jays’ bullpen ERA (4.07) is 20th in MLB. That doesn’t sound bad except that the list of teams with worse bullpen ERA’s (other than the Dodgers and, depending on your views, Arizona) constitutes a who’s who of teams that aren’t contenders or even trying to be contenders this year (Oakland, Colorado, KC, White Sox, Miami, Washington etc.). The other teams in the AL East? NYY 1st (2.71), TB 3rd (3.01), Baltimore 4th (3.12) and Boston 8th (3.49). The Jays’ pen is good enough, with the quality of the rest of the roster, for this to be a solid playoff team but I think it’s the weakest part of the roster by quite a bit. Managing it will be challenging all year.
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scottt - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#428609) #
That was a weird outing for Pearson.
He was throwing breaking balls and when he used the fastball it got hammered.
Velo wasn't bad. It seems to be just a case of trying to pitch backwards (getting ahead with breaking balls and going for the strikeout with the fastball). It didn't fool anyone.
Romano pitches like that quite a bit, actually. But Romano will go through an AB with only the slider.

Maybe Richards was back in the 8th because he struck out the side in the 7th?
With 3 right handed hitters coming up, it was weird to stick with Richards for a third inning.



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Mike Green - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#428610) #
Adrian Pinto and Leo Jimenez are heating up. Each has regained control of the strike zone in the last few weeks, with OBPs now in the .400 range.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#428611) #
Sorry. Wrong thread.
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hypobole - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#428613) #
Espinal has 2 options left. Just sayin'.
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92-93 - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 06:57 PM EDT (#428614) #
Schneider lets Espinal hit vs. a RHP but not Kiermaier? What on earth is he doing?
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Nigel - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 06:59 PM EDT (#428615) #
I'm having trouble following the logic.
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scottt - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#428616) #
They jinxed it by commenting that Bo hadn't made an error in a long time.

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greenfrog - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#428617) #
That was just painful to watch. The Blue Jays would have been in a good position to win this one in the 11th, with the top of the order coming up.
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99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#428618) #
They were winning 1-0 at the time. The point of putting Espinal in was to get your best run prevention configuration, not score more runs.

Taking out Kiermaier would work against that principle.

I had no issue with this decision.

I’m more concerned with Romanos complete inability to be effective on the road. His era on the road was 5.86 coming into today and up to 6.67 now. He has a 2+ run differential between his home and road ERAs last year too
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Mike Green - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#428619) #
I am with 92-93 and Nigel. I can't follow the logic of pinch-hitting for Kiermaier rather than Espinal with Kimbrel on the mound. 

Caleb Joseph pointed out that Bichette took an indirect route to the ball on Castellanos' ball up the middle in the 9th which made a flip to second to get Harper unlikely to succeed. lt also affected Espinal's throw as Bichette was in the way.  It was a purely instinctive decision which way to go, but Bichette's instincts led him astray. 
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Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 07:23 PM EDT (#428620) #
The Phillies visit Toronto for 2 games in August.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#428621) #
The pinch-hitting decision came in the top of the 10th.  The game was tied 1-1 with Lukas on 2nd and one out and Espinal and Kiermaier due up. 
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99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#428622) #
Apologies, I was talking about a different part of the game. I hadn’t seen the Kirk AB, I shut it off when Romano blew it
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Gerry - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 07:42 PM EDT (#428623) #
There were three plays not made between the ninth and tenth innings.

Vladdy had a very tough chance to catch a foul ball and he overran it.
The Espinal/Bo play that didn't get an out, and
The Bo error.

Small things can lose games.

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John Northey - Wednesday, May 10 2023 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#428627) #
I'm guessing the logic was that with 2 outs to play with still Espinal might get lucky then you don't need to lose the DH and if you did lose the DH at least it would be in the 9 hole if Kirk was the last out of the inning vs the 8 hole if he hits for Espinal. That is my best guess at least. I see it as overthinking a situation though - you let Kirk hit for Espinal and if it doesn't work then KK at least has a chance as a LH hitter vs RH Espinal.

The bigger issue is scoring just 1 run today. Espinal/Biggio continue to be a black hole on offense (0 for 4 2 K's) with Jansen not much better (0-4 2 K's as well but slightly better on the season).
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Petey Baseball - Thursday, May 11 2023 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#428632) #
Interesting that MG brought up Bo's defensive instincts.
I thought his footwork was bad on the transfer which caused the awful throw,
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Petey Baseball - Thursday, May 11 2023 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#428633) #
I agree that Schneider's bullpen management has been shaky. He seems to be caught between an numbers/analytical approach and his baseball instincts.
I thought it was a good idea to try and use Pop a lot early in the season (it seemed like he pitched every night in April) to try and really solidify him as an reliable option. I think with the Pop injury, he's trying to do the same with Richards, hence the second inning of work the other night.

John Gibbons had a good knack for doing this. I don't have all the numbers in front of me, but it seems an inordinate amount of rather ordinary relievers had great years in Gibby's two tenures.
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Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, May 11 2023 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#428634) #
Schneider was a catcher in his playing days, and he coached the position as well. With that background, bullpen management ought to be one of his strengths.

Tomorrow the boys welcome Dixie, then those bad Yankees next week.
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Gerry - Thursday, May 11 2023 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#428636) #
The Jays are coming into an important part of the schedule.

They start with 3 games against the 25-12 Braves, including having to face Spencer Strider in the first game. Then four against the Yankees, 3 against the Orioles and four versus the Rays. They finish with three against the first place Twins.

17 games in 17 days versus three division rivals and two division leaders.
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Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, May 11 2023 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#428639) #
A quick peek at the Metropolitans!

following 7 wins in 10 games during a west-coast trip to Oakland, Chávez Ravine, and San Francisco:

N.Y. Mets last 5 series W / L:

vs. Washington 1-2
vs. Atlanta 1-2*
@ Detroit 0-3*
vs. Colorado 1-2
@ Cincinnati 1-2

*double-headers: May 1st, 3rd.

Tuesday in Cincinnati, Buck Showalter was ejected for the first time as Mets manager.
Showalter had 9 ejections as N.Y. Yankees manager from 1992 to 1995.

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Gerry - Thursday, May 11 2023 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#428643) #
Adam Cimber pitched for Dunedin tonight.
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John Northey - Thursday, May 11 2023 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#428644) #
So 7 1/2 back in 4th place in the AL (B)East with the 3rd wild card. They'd be in 1st in the AL Central by 1/2 a game, 2nd in AL West 1 1/2 behind Texas. 1st in NL Central by 1/2 a game, 2nd in NL East 4 games back of Atlanta, 2nd in NL West 1 1/2 behind the Dodgers.

Interesting that things are slowly moving towards 'normal'. Dodgers lead the NL West, Milwaukee just 1/2 a game behind the surprising Pirates, Atlanta leading the NL East, Minnesota/Texas/Tampa in the AL. Texas the only pure surprise. I suspect the AL is determined by who has played the A's the most. Losing a game to them has to hurt big time. The Rays & Yankees swept their 3 each vs the A's, as did Seattle, the Mets, and the Cubs. The Angels had to be embarrassed losing 2 while winning 5 (when else could you say that), while KC gets the 'oops' award for being the one team the A's have a winning record against (2-1)
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