I think the Jays win 93 games and tie with Yanks for the lead in the AL East. The back end of the rotation becomes a problem, the front end as good as it has ever been. Hitting and defense are outstanding. They underperform Pythagorean w/l percentage but make it to the World Series.

Dasan Brown gets a surprise callup in May and leads the club to a 115 win season.

It would be nice, but instead I have a drab prediction. The Jays start out slow, but in the second half, the pitching reinforcements (Ryu, Green, Bowden Francis! and Tiedemann) and the club eyes out a division championship with 91 wins. Fortunately, they are much better than that in the post-season.

Santiago Espinal will continue to be an important player for the club. And maybe not underrated this time.

*ekes out a division championship.

Starting pitching effectiveness and depth are the big worries for the Jays. But those issues are also worries for many other teams.

Alek Manoah's second half of last year wasn't as good as his first half. Berrios and Kikuchi had their issues. who knows how Bassitt will fare.

I will say 92 wins and another wild card.

As I said on the other thread, 92 wins and a WC berth. Unlike last year, when I thought most of the risk was to the downside, I think there is a decent distribution of potential outcomes either side of that number. I do think there is some risk that the runs scored drop off arising from the roster changes is more significant than most are assuming. I'm less bullish on Varsho's offence than most and KK is, well, KK with the bat. The run prevention benefits from those moves should be good though.

As mentioned, I'm predicting 95 wins (an admittedly high total) for the Jays. I think the good quality up and down the roster, including better pitching and defense, plus the reinforcements on the farm and IL, will allow them to win fairly consistently this year. There are enough interesting prospects in the system to allow the team to acquire a complementary piece or two at the deadline if need be.

Minimizing injuries will be a key determinant of success for the team.

I think that a lot depends on whether Varsho can fill Teo's shoes and whether Kikuchi (and to a lesser extent, Berríos) can remain a steady rotation starter.

My guess is that some things are going to go wrong that we can't predict yet because they have not happened. This feels like another 90-win team to me, which should be good enough for a postseason berth of some sort or another. After that, it's a crapshoot.

Top team in the AL East with 96 wins.

The Jays go deep into the playoffs because 3 hitters will get very hot. The pen will sort itself out and be very strong with with some surprise additions from the farm.

93 wins and just beat out Yanks for division.

ALE-Jays
ALC-Cleveland
ALW-Houston
WC-NYY, Minnesota, Seattle
NLE-Braves
NLC-Cardinals
NLW-Padres
WC-Mets, Brewers, Dodgers
WS-Jays over Braves

Barring superb health, offense will be (somewhat of) a problem all year. If they get '21 Vlad, they win the division. If they get '22 Vlad, they will have to settle for the Wild Card. It's good having Chapman playing for a big contract.

The rotation will be fine. Improvement from Berrios and Kikuchi will offset some pullback from the top 3.

The totality of the offseason moves looks good, and I commend the front office for recognizing that they couldn't run back the same squad and hope for better results. That being said, the timing of the Varsho trade felt like it was a fallback, the result of missing out on perhaps Plans A and B and subsequently forcing a Moreno trade. And I still don't understand why they traded Teoscar for a reliever; there's lots of room for him on this roster.

To complete my ballot:

ALE - NYY
ALC - do I have to pick someone? Minn
ALW - Houston
ALWC - Jays, TB and Sea
NLE - Mets
NLC - Cardinals
NLW - Dodgers
NLWC - Padres, Braves, Brewers
WS - crapshoot but I guess I'll say Padres over Houston

92-93 - that sums up pretty much exactly where I come out on all of those issues.

92-93 Teoscar on the roster I think prevented them from making plays for the FA OFs they wanted. With him here there really wasn’t room in the OF. Of course they sorta got burned when they missed on some high profile players. I think if Teoscar is here now all he does is replace Belt. He wouldn’t be playing in the OF as more than a 20 game stint.

I'll be the wild eyed optimist. 100 wins with all 5 guys in the rotation getting 15 + wins. Varsho MVP, 40+ saves for Romano, Cy for Gausman. Hey, it could happen!

One I feel a lot more confident in is most gold gloves ever in one year for the Jays. Record is 2 (White/Alomar 91-95, Fernandez/Barfield 86/87, Wells/Hudson 2005). With recent winners at CF, 1B, 3B plus good candidates at LF, RF, and 2B I like the Jays chances. Plus Jansen certainly should be considered at C - the only position the Jays never won a gold glove at with an * for LF (4 different OF have won but 2 were mainly RF, and 2 mainly CF). Kind of funny Josh Donaldson has never won one, just one Jay 3B ever has. Wonder if any here can guess who?

FWIW, Fangraphs projects the Blue Jays to lead the American League in scoring, but to be considerably behind the leaders in run prevention. Personally, I expect them to be better than projected at run prevention and not as good at scoring, but actually quite well balanced.

I don't think Guerrero Jr. is as central to this club as Judge is to the Yankees. They can win without VHJ at his best, but it wouldn't hurt if he was.

It's interesting that the Yankees think Volpe is ready though.

Three non-star players I’m rooting for this season are Belt, Kiermaier, and Kikuchi. If they can stay healthy (physically and mentally) and be productive, it would give the team a significant boost.

Yeah, An elite Vlad makes team much better but Jays strength is depth. ZIPS has the Jays having 7 players with an OPS+ of over 115. That's incredible.

117 wins.

I always love seeing crazy ranges. If I ran a team I wouldn't, but as a fan it is fun - means a lot of different things can happen. Projected WAR stats from FanGraphs which has 7 different projection systems in use.

• Springer: 2.8 to 4.9 (2.1 range!)
• Bo: 4.1 to 4.7 (0.6 range)
• Vlad: 4.0 to 5.4 (1.4 range)
• Varsho: 3.0 to 4.0 (1.0 range)
• Kirk: 3.4 to 4.5 (1.1 range)
• Belt: 0.9 to 2.0 (1.1 range)
• Chapman: 3.4 to 5.5 (2.1 range!)
• Merrifield: 0.9 to 1.7 (0.8 range)
• Kiermaier: 1.2 to 2.2 (1.0 range)
  

  ---

  Bench
• Jansen: 2.1 to 2.9 (0.8 range)
• Espinal: 1.0 to 2.6 (1.6 range)
• Biggio: 0.5 to 2.0 (1.5 range, just one has him at or above 1)
• Lukes: 0.0 to 0.1 (0.1 range)

Rotation (skipping pen as I see the pen as too variable and normally each is a max of 1.0)

• Manoah: 2.6 to 3.5 (0.9 range, odd none see him as valuable as last years 4.1)
• Gausman: 3.5 to 4.3 (0.8 range, again, 5.7 last year)
• Bassitt: 2.2 to 2.9 (0.7 range)
• Berrios: 1.8 to 2.4 (0.6 range, none as bad as last years 1.1 or as good as 2021's 4.0)
• Kikuchi: 0.5 to 1.2 (0.7 range, right now I'd bet on him doing better than the best option there)

So quite the ranges there. Biggest ranges are Springer and Chapman - both over 2 (seems to be all in quality of play with defense being a big part), then 2 bench guys in Biggio and Espinal (Biggio more playing time, Espinal more quality of play). So the keys to 2023 are Springer and Chapman - if they play at the upper end vs lower end of projections that makes a 4+ win difference which is massive.

4+ WAR guys potentially - ie: potential all-stars - are Springer, Bo, Vlad, Varsho, Kirk, Chapman, Gausman. Remember FanGraphs pitching ignores balls in play for pitchers thus why Gausman was so much higher than Manoah in 2022.

I'm betting most Jay pitchers do better in BR WAR than FG WAR with Varsho-Kiermaier-Springer in the OF vs last years ugly one. Can't hurt to have Mattingly working with Vlad more at 1B too.

"An elite Vlad makes team much better but Jays strength is depth. ZIPS has the Jays having 7 players with an OPS+ of over 115. That's incredible."

Think we had 8 or 9 last year.

Happy Opening Day! Season 47!

I think the team will do very well overall, but the #3, 4 and 5 starters will struggle out of the gate.

My prediction:

93 wins, a WC berth and our first playoff game victory since 2016.

My prediction is 86 Wins -- then in the offseason; the Jays will trade Vlad and Bo to San Diego for Soto and Tatis. 1990 all over again. Just kidding.

I'd say 93 +/- 2 wins, which probably wins the division. The Yankees rotation is already looking shaky, which lowers the bar for winning the division, but TB will be good, and BAL are both likely better than last year.

Your 2023 Toronto Blue Jays will score 803 runs and allow 649 on their way to a 96-win season.

Everyone forgets about the pitch clock by May, then it rears its head in October at a big moment.

Someone in MLB will steal 80 bases this year.

Jansen is getting 75% of the snaps at catcher by Civic Holiday.

" BAL are both likely better than last year."

I think Baltimore is a better team than last year but they got very lucky and won't be so lucky this year so will actually be about the same. Their offense is good but I don't see how a team with a rotation lead by Kyle Gibson and Dean Kremer is going to compete. I thought they would do what the Rangers did and make a splash signing some pitchers because it would have taken them into contention but they seem to be waiting another year.

""An elite Vlad makes team much better but Jays strength is depth. ZIPS has the Jays having 7 players with an OPS+ of over 115. That's incredible."

Think we had 8 or 9 last year."

8, if you include Merrifield but Gurriel was also just below. Offensive depth was a strength last year but this year it doesn't come at the expense of terrible outfield defense.

I think the Jays are a 90 to 100 win team, the exact total depending on injuries. I'll predict 94 wins, one more than the Rays who surprise as usual. The Yankees will be hit hard by injuries and finish at 89 wins, Baltimore will break even at 81, and Boston will only win 72 games with their fans moaning all the way.

ALE- Toronto
ALC- Cleveland
ALW- Houston
ALWC- Tampa, New York, Seattle
NLE- Atlanta
NLC- St. Louis
NLW- San Diego
NLWC- Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia
World Series- Atlanta over the Jays ( We'll be back next year)

Gonna go with 100 wins.

Similar team as last year but better defense and depth. Even with guys injured the bullpen is deeper to start, and the bench will consistently have starter quality players on it, which hasnt happened here in a long while


And i doubt their winter moves will stop thek from adding midseason.

98 wins with the Rays second. Most of all, I like the depth behind every position, mostly on the big league club but also in Buffalo, the ability to excel at all aspects of the game, the improved left-right balance, the outfield upgrade, the willingness of management to make whatever moves may still be needed, the advantages of no-shift for Chapman and Belt. Oh and I trust in Pete Walker…

Dare to dream!

Interleague play will be important 46 games.

Less games against the AL East. 6 less against TB. TB always has deeper pitching. Solid to great D by veteran players compared to the jays making an error or 2 due to youth. So we have to earn everything and we give them a gift and a chance to pounce. My analysis may be wrong. We always handle NYY and lately have crushed Boston and Baltimore.

More games between the ALC & ALW. This should help.

I expect the West coast trips to be hard as usual.

95 wins to edge out Yankees in the last series. Start and end strong but weaken mid season when short term SP injuries reveal lack of depth. Offence down but pitching and defence more than offsets. Fewer HR’s but not by much as VG and BB take off and Varsho hits mid 30s. Lots of running, though it takes a while to hit solid SB%s. Starters strong except Berrios who yo-yo’s again but still hits .500 w/l.

With enough predictions, may be one of mine turns out.

2 predictions:

1) uglyone will get annoyed by something Atkins does or does not do.

2) Parker will get annoyed by something uglyone posts.

I think those are pretty safe :)

my prediction is that this is a turning point season: either they win over 100 and walk away with the division, or they barely crack .500, i'll say 84 wins or fewer.

if the former happens, the rogers purse is open; if the the latter we see them draw back spending in the years to come. while i am often critical of this front office, they have put together a team that has a lot of ways to win with a high floor and a higher ceiling. it's really on the players here to determine the direction the franchise takes beyond this year.

Kelly Gruber won a gold glove.

Springs brings hope, so I'll say 97 wins and a pennant, driven by average-ish pitching and a great offence.