Manoah: 8 starts without a walk out of 51 regular season and 1 post season start. - 6 were in 2022.
Kikuchi: 6 games in 2022 without walks, just one was a start. None were 5+ IP.
Berrios: 3 games with 0 walks, 2 games with 3 walks, none with 4+ over 32 starts. He should be helped with the added OF defense as it clearly wasn't walking that was his issue last year.
Won't bother with Stripling and Gausman since those are covered already.
Clearly avoiding the walk is a key element in the Jays pitching. A good thing to push, but Kikuchi needs a LOT of work on it.
The original estimate was 4-6 weeks.
Chuck suggested that Halladay should have his appendix out more often.
Bichette and Vladdy seem more likely to command Devers-like extensions (they may even require more years and dollars).
The key is getting them done early.
https://twitter.com/DownToBlack/status/1611014525557284864
Rogers Centre...
Fenway...
Looking at those pictures my first thought is the Red Sox should've chased hard after him as at least 14 of his outs would've been home runs or doubles at Fenway (if I counted correctly). SkyDome sees 8 more HR at least, maybe more. So as a Jay, if you assume he has 4 more HR due to the dome you get a line of 243/308/473 - 781 OPS which is nicer than the real one of 235/302/443, but at Fenway you'd up that to 256/320/525 845 OPS. And both assume road parks are the same as the NL West (which they aren't obviously - no Dodgers Stadium out here). Varsho could easily have a career year this year and make the trade look very lopsided for the Jays ala the Donaldson trade way back when. Could Moreno & Gurriel make it look like the old McGriff trade? Doubtful unless Varsho has a career ending injury, Gurriel a career year, and Moreno becomes a superstar (yeah, can't imagine any trade being that lobsided today).
Most times used as a pinch Runner: Zimmer was #4 in the majors with 24 times used that way, Billy Hamilton #1 with 35. Since 1957 #1 is Don Hopkins in 1975 used 74 times. Top Jay is JJ Cannon in 1980 42 times used as a pinch runner - 9th most in that time frame.
Most pitches in a game 2022: Manoah's 113 pitch game was the top Jays one, #23 in the majors. #1 was Miles Mikolas for St Louis with 129. New Jay Chris Bassitt had a 114 pitch game for the Mets.
For most inherited runners no Jay was on the list, but for 1957-2022 Mark Eichhorn 1987 had 96 inherited (5th highest for that time frame)
For most foul balls per PA Bo does a lot... #8 last year at 0.84 and in 2021 he had the 4th highest ratio since 1957 at 0.96. Knew he fouled off a lot, didn't know it was that high historically. The entire top 10 are since 2011. Tapia fouled off a lot too at 0.81 per PA last year good for 21st. New Jay Varsho was #17 with 0.82.
I could go on but there is so much there it is crazy but fun. Bo's fouls caught my eye the most.
Jays are clearly loading up on guys who throw hard. Confusingly so as they signed Julian Fernandez before getting Junior Fernandez. But with the Fernandezes, Pop, Pearson, Merryweather, and more, their entire AAA bullpen looks like it will throw high 90s to triple digits. Hopefully one or two of those guys can harness their stuff and become a solid major league reliever.
Varsho describes his mindset as “fast and physical.” The same mentality he carried as a football player growing up in Wisconsin. If he’s pursuing a baseball in an outfield gap, tracking down a pop up behind home plate, or trying to go first-to-third, he’s doing it with a full head of steam. And who does Varsho credit for that instinct? Well, who do you think?
“I learned a lot of those things from my dad,” Varsho said. “He’s the guy I go to every day. He’s the one that I’m able to bounce some things off. He’s been there from the beginning to the end of understanding my swing, understanding an adjustment, helping me out with outfield play, and understanding the little things that go on with an everyday game. There’s not really many people who are going to understand going through a 162-game season, the ebbs and flows, and what that’s all like. So, it’s nice to have that resource.”
This will be the 19th year of the Batters Box top 30. The first list was produced by Jordan Furlong in 2004.
Aaron Hill was #1 and Adam Lind was #28. So there is hope for players at the bottom of our list.
You can see the old list here.
Rainer Nunez won ROY in winter ball. He made adjustments to his swing to produce more fly balls last off season. Exit velo as high as 114 in 2022.
The Jays do a lot of off season development camps and use the development complex. I don't know much details. We have seen improvements in young players. Tiedemann is the #1 example of success. Dahian Santos I spent the winter in Dunedin. Dasan Brown finished 2022 very strong.
First half: .233/.299/.409 (5 SB, 4 CS) 97 wRC+
Second half: .239/.306/.487 (11 SB, 2 CS) 118 wRC+
Basically, he was a valuable defense-first player in the first half, and an excellent two-way player (as a result of a significant uptick in power and base running success) in the second half.
I'm trying not to read too much into these splits (I've been burned before by overestimating the predictive power of a player's first half / second half splits from the previous year). But it is noteworthy and could suggest that this positive trend will carry over into 2023.
I agree. There are other factors for sure. However, Varsho was much better away than home (119 WRC+ to 93 at home) so there is some hope that moving away from Arizona will boost his numbers.
* RF: 256pa, 98wrc+, 5.1war/650
* CF: 177pa, 107wrc+, 6.6war/650
* C: 90pa, 120wrc+, 4.3war/650
* DH: 60pa, 112wrc+, 1.1war/650
* PH: 9pa, 139wrc+, 7.2war/650
His development, while slow, has picked up over the past year which offers some hope.
10. Manuel Beltre
9. Adam Kloffenstein
8. Samad Taylor
7. Leonardo Jimenez
6. Otto Lopez
5. Kevin Smith
4. Gunnar Hoglund
3. Jordan Groshans
2. Orelvis Martinez
1. Gabriel Moreno
No less than five top prospects traded. Lopez probably doesn't qualify as a prospect any more and The Kloff probably doesn't qualify as a prospect any more. I think we all know who is going to be the #1 prospect now (Mister Strike Out), and, probably by default, who is going to be #2 (Mister Strike Out). Then it's anyone's guess.
He threw 105 IP in Detroit last year with a 84 ERA+. Not a great pitcher, but a good depth signing imo. He can eat a few innings if needed as the #7/8 guy for the rotation. Helps ensure we don't push a kid to the majors too soon. A slight upgrade on the earlier Casey Lawrence signing. Neither uses a 40 man slot unless called up so zero risk signings.
C Rob Brantly, 68 OPS+ lifetime in majors over 8 seasons 456 PA
RHP Julian Fernández: 6 2/3 ML innings, 4.14 ERA lifetime in minors, with 4.7 BB/9, 8.7 K/9 rates. A pure reliever (0 starts ever) entering his age 27 season
LHP Paul Fry: 177 IP in majors, 94 ERA+ but a 68 ERA+ over 13 IP last year, 4.9 BB/9 vs 9.8 K/9 lifetime.
Nothing wow, but all nice pieces for Buffalo. Who knows, maybe one of them will 'click' with our coaches and become something useful. Odds are against it but Brantly almost certainly will be watched closely in spring to see if he can cover when a catcher gets hurt this year (it seems inevitable with catchers).
I like the focus on versatility, tbh. The TB model
Not good enough to play right field.
It also showed in his catching evaluation. Athletic, good at receiving and blocking, poor at throwing.
Moreno was better than Kirk and Jansen. Varsho is probably not going to be able to hold runners.
Varsho seems to be another player with good intangibles, based on what has been written about him in recent weeks.
So yeah, Grossman who I see as a very good fit is still out there. Pollock also is a nice fit - RH hitter, over 600 PA just once in his career (11 seasons), in 2020 he was an everyday player too, and last year with 500+ PA, but all other seasons were sub 500 PA and 4 times sub 350 PA/100 Games (*plus 2020). 4 times in the 400's with 112-137 games played. Basically he is in the Tapia role more often than not in his career. But he wants $8+ million since he opted out of his $13 mil option for this year ($5 mil buyout). So I see Grossman as a great fit (less cash demand probably given his last deal, just once in 10 seasons with 500+ PA but 5 times in the 400's).
I guess the question is do the Jays feel a guy like Nathan Lukes mixed with Lopez, Merrifield, and Biggio can do the job? I suspect they do feel that way thus won't make any offers to these guys unless it hits spring and they are coming to the door begging for a deal.
For 5th starter I suspect the same is in place - they have 2 decent AAAA guys now, plus Kikuchi and White.
The pen they want more high level help for, but what is left? Andrew Chafin looks good - a LHP just 11 saves lifetime, but always a reliever (473 career games in relief) 132 ERA+ lifetime, 9.5 K vs 3.5 BB/9, but 10.5 K/9 last year vs 3.0 BB/9 so not getting weaker as he hits his age 33 season. If signed I think he'd finish the pen off nicely. We'd have 2 left handers to go with a lot of solid RH pitchers. From MLB TR - "Over his past 126 innings, Chafin has a 2.29 ERA with a 25.7% strikeout rate, a 7.5% walk rate and a 47.9% grounder rate. His strikeouts (27.6%) and grounders (51.3%) in 2022 were particularly impressive." Yeah, he'd be ideal to finish off the pen.
Similarly, one injury to the starters could lead to two big holes: Hutchison and Kikuchi in the 4 and 5 hole is a scary thought.
I’m less worried about the bullpen as there are a number of reasonable options that could step up.
I can envision a 2023 season where where Varsho plays 140-155 games and Kiermaier and Springer play something like 120-140 games each.
However I have a bit more faith in our ability to fill this role than most.
Whit Merrifield is being severely underrated here- he gave us a 118 OPS+ last year and that is pretty consistent with what he was giving the Royals before he was beaten down by losing.
Cavan Biggio still has potential, Otto Lopez is pushing, and I don't see why Addison Barger couldn't be tried in the OF (or Orelvis if he makes big gains). Even if none of these players work out, a generic bat is one of the easiest things to get at the trade deadline.
Personally I'd rather find the OF equivalent of Drew Hutchinson and spend whatever resources we have left on the bullpen- which I am still not sold on.
Nah, my biggest concern right now is the pen. One more high quality arm would make me feel better, especially a LH one. Thus why I suggested Andrew Chafin earlier. He is probably the best free agent left standing - a sinker/slider/fastball pitcher with high ground ball rate (over 50%) and high K% at 27% with his BB% sub 10% - slightly lower K% than Romano, but a better BB% and higher GB%. I'd love that finishing touch. Romano-Swanson-Garcia-Bass-Mayza-Cimber-White or Kikuchi plus Chafin. Richards would be dumped in this as I can't imagine Cimber, Mayza, Romano, or Swanson being sent to AAA and the Jays will want a long man in the pen in Kikuchi or White with the other the 5th man in the rotation (I strongly prefer both sharing that slot - max of 2 times through the order each, then the rest of the pen covers whatever is left plus the transition between them). Remember, for the pen we still will have Pop in AAA (who should be in the majors but who do you send down?) plus Yosver Zulueta (hotshot kid with a flamethrowing arm)
Rotation? Meh. We have a very solid top 4 imo (Berrios 2022 was a fluke I'm sure and having a strong defensive OF should be a massive help), and 5th slot can be Kikuchi/White until a kid is ready. If/when an injury happens it'll suck but hopefully that won't happen until a kid is ready for a shot, or one of Hatch-Pearson-Hutchison-Lawrence-Thornton is able to cover for a start or two. Phew, lots of backup in AAA. I suspect Pearson will be given short starts, 3 IP max, to stretch him out a bit followed by Zulueta. Plus mid-season we might have Ryu back too.
Yeah, I think the Jays are set for 2022 now, with minor tinkering left. If a quality starter or 4th OF is sitting around hunting for work come March the Jays might sign him. If Chafin is available at a good price he'd fit in the pen nicely. But right now I see the Jays sitting back and letting free agents come to them, letting other teams come to the door with trade offers but zero urgency to do anything right now. Spring battles will be for backup positions and kids trying to catch coaches eyes.
Given the amount that the 4th OF is likely to play, Merrifield serving this role is fine and well if he's closer to the 120 AB guy he was with the Jays than the 1000 AB guy he was with KC over the past two seasons. I'm wondering if too much faith is being placed in his strong September.
His ability to play 2B and the OF makes him a useful bench player, but 4th outfielder, as we saw last year, is damn near a fulltime job.
It's hard to keep up very good performance when you're on a trash team with nobody around you to help in KC. Unless he gets injured or he aged a ton in the last 2 years and his time with the Jays was a fluke...I think it's very likely that he will be a solid regular for the Jays.
Overall his numbers are on a curve which peaked in 2018 when he was 29.
That was all in KC with a really bad team.
An OPS+ around 100 with a high OBP and lots of baserunning value would add up to 3~4 WAR.
Espinal has been worth around 2.5 WAR.
So for 2023 the 3 combine for 4.2 fWAR which isn't much for 3 roster slots but for 2B alone would be great but the G/PA is 322 games, 1393 PA so 2.0 fWAR per 650 PA or basically what you'd expect from a full-time regular, split among 3 guys so basically we have a good bench is what it implies by having those 3 share 2B.
Now, will Merrifield be better now that he is settled into Toronto and knows for the first time in his career he is starting the season with a playoff contender? I doubt it'll make a big difference, but it shouldn't hurt.
actually I disagree here - one of the huge flaws the last couple years is only having one guy that could play CF, with Springer needing time off this forced us to play our 4th OF much more than we should have. This is part of the reason why Tapia as a 4th OF was so bad - because due to roster construction our 4th OF in particular was a near full time role.
Last year PA as OF:
Teoscar 490
Gurriel 429
Tapia 416
Springer 393
This year that shouldn't be the case.
Varsho should be 600+ pa in the OF this year, while Springer should see less time at DH. Kiermaier does have an injury question but if he avoids another major injury he should be good for at least ~400pa out there too, and maybe more than that.
That would leave the 4th OF as more of a 200pa role than a 400pa role this year. And more importantly we should never have to play a 4th OF for defensive purporses (i.e. to play CF), they will only ever need to be a corner OF and likely only ever a LF. This makes Merrifield and Biggio's likely league average bats more than enough to fill in that slot.
I can't imagine 4th OF will get nearly 1000 innings again. In 2021 we saw Hernandez 1138 innings, Grichuk 1065 2/3, Gurriel 943 2/3, Springer 333 2/3, with 200's for Dickerson and Davis, while 100+ innings for Biggio. Palacios had 91, Dyson 55, while Jared Hoying & Kevin Smith each played less than a games worth of innings.
2019 saw Grichuk get over 1000, Hernandez come close 991, then 500+ for both Billy McKinney & Gurriel, with 3 guys in the 200's in Fisher, Davis, and Drury while Socrates Brito, Biggio, Alford, Sogard, Pillar, Hanson, and Urena all had time out there too.
Basically, it is odd to have your planned 4th OF get that much time despite not playing well like happened last year. We saw injuries to Hernandez and Springer which skyrocketed his time, but he was so poor on defense that Zimmer got into 88 games in CF. What is tough is that both years Springer has been here we've seen our 4th OF get regular playing time. Now with KK and Varsho both being CF'ers along with Springer the situation isn't the same. We can have a 4th OF who is a pure LF or RF easily or just use converted IF'ers out there. But there is a high risk of both KK and Springer going down at the same time. This is where prospects are needed. Merrifield playing everyday out there we could make work (Espinal/Biggio sharing 2B) I suspect. But if 2 positions need to be filled who fills the other one? Orelvis Martinez and Addison Barger are the 2 best hitting prospects who are close but neither has time in the OF. Nathan Lukes is the top guy on the 40 man for the OF but entering his age 28 season the odds of him being more than an emergency cover is minimal. Zach Britton is the most interesting one - climbing fast over his first 2 minor league seasons and should be in AA to start but if he hits like he did last year he'll be in AAA before you know it and ready for his shot. He is the best hope for a regular OF'er from the system imo.
Best wishes and hopes for good results for Chicago White Sox pitcher, and former Jay, Liam Hendriks, who announced that he is undergoing treatment for non-Hodgkins Lymphona.
The Nashville Stars was the name of a Negro League team located there, and the ownership group seems to be focused on building the Black community around their planned stadium. The large group (minimum stake: $25,000) is 42% Black. Source: https://www.tennessean.com/story/news/2022/06/14/nashville-major-league-baseball-dave-stewart-diversifying-push/7553181001/
I'm surprised he came so cheap. He could easily end up our best hitter without it being too big a surprise.
2yr Stats
* RF Springer (33): 925pa, 135wrc+, 4.7war650
* SS Bichette (25): 1387pa, 125wrc+, 4.5war650
* 1B Guerrero (24): 1404pa, 149wrc+, 4.2war650
* DH Belt (35): 679pa, 130wrc+, 3.3war650
* C Jansen (28): 453pa, 124wrc+, 5.7war650
* 3B Chapman (30): 1243pa, 110wrc+, 4.3war650
* LF Varsho (26): 907pa, 104wrc+, 5.0war650
* 2B Espinal (28): 737pa, 104wrc+, 3.7war650
* CF Kiermaier (33): 611pa, 97wrc+, 3.8war650
* UT Merrifield (34): 1270pa, 89wrc+, 2.3war650
* UT Biggio (28): 597pa, 90wrc+, 1.3war650
* C Kirk (24): 730pa, 123wrc+, 4.0war650
More than happy leaving the last spot open for kids to fight over.
381 PAs in 2021, 298 last year.
He's going to be 35 and doesn't need to play every day.
He's going to get a few start at 1B when Vlad is the DH.
Can pinch hit off the bench here and there.
Only 84 games in LF vs 1144 at 1B, but will probably get some starts there.
On another note we have to be solidly in the Tax now. Hard not to be pleased to finally see us there. It's about time.
Moreno - switch hitter IIRC, OPS 733 (but wasted as DH, questionable as OF).
The rest were all below 700 (highest value of OPS+ of 92 for Collins and Biggio): Collins, Biggio, Tapia, Zimmer, JBJ
To now, we could field an all-LHB outfield of Belt, Varsho, Kiermaier (or swap the last two). All of which seem likely to match or beat Biggio's OPS+ of 92 at minimum.
Not sure if Belt is still serviceable in LF, though..
Add in Biggio at 2nd for tough righties, and we could have 4 "reasonably legit" LHB in the lineup, whereas we struggled to find ONE last year.
I wonder if Biggio or Merrifield are on the way out now.
I wouldn't put $18 million of my own money into the geriatric versions of Belt and Kiermaier, but this could maybe work out.
Merrifield's right-handedness seemed redundant in 2022 but suddenly seems quite valuable in 2023. Biggio could well be squeezed out of playing time with Belt's arrival, as Belt would now appear to be the go-to to spell Guerrero at 1B (32 of Biggio's 49 starts came at 1B in 2022).
Hope they just keep everyone and never have to play any bad players ever.
Didn't PeterG propose this move several weeks ago? Nice call.
Espinal is the infield UT.
They can DH a catcher if they want more right bats against a lefty.
There's still one spot left on the bench.
I got Nathan Lukes penciled in for now. Late inning replacement in blow outs.
Pinch runner and the like but Biggio can also be used late in a key spot.
Looks pretty good on paper.
It seems surreal that we're actually approaching $250m.
F'ing finally.
Let's F'ing GO!
that was always just an excuse to run a weaker roster, though.
get a real DH. build a good enough team that you can actually rest players instead of wasting the DH spot on middling hitters.
The expression "Prospects are for poor people" most often comes up when talking about trading young players for established ones. But it also applies here - Addison Barger and Spencer Horwitz and Otto Lopez could potentially contribute to a World Series champion in 2023, but for a big market team like Toronto they shouldn't be Plan A or even Plan B.
A few weeks ago the Box seemed pessimistic about how the offseason was going and I predicted they would be Over on 2-1/2 more additions to the 40-man. Now it feels like I was too conservative. Technically they've already hit the over with Varsho, Belt, and Junior Fernández. I think they'll still add a righty outfielder (McCutchen, please) and quite possibly a reliever too (I like the idea of taking a flyer on Zack Britton).
The off-season has been quite purposeful- improve the outfield defence, balance out the lineup, and improve the bench. They may also have been trying to break up the Barrio, although that would be stoutly denied. The D'Backs insisted on Gurriel Jr.'s inclusion in the Varsho deal. We swear.
So let's count out the roster. Kirk, Jansen, Guerrero Jr., Belt, Espinal, Biggio. Merrifield, Bichette, Chapman, Varsho, Kiermaier, Springer. That makes 12. Biggio's role is quite attenuated unless he is used in the corner outfield when Springer or Kiermaier is resting or injured and a RH pitcher is starting. They've got a couple of good choices for the 13th position player.
Won’t be surprised if they add a 4th outfielder which could also give them 2 solid PH’s off the bench- one on each side- in addition to the spare catcher.
Looks like Johnny Kuato is off the board. Too bad.
Happy about balancing of the lineup as I've been banging about the lack of LHH the last few years and I also felt the team lacked maturity (maybe an old person's gripe), so I'm not upset about the breaking up of the Barrio even if there was no causal linkage.
My expectation is that Otto Lopez is the favourite for the 13th position player especially if his stint in CF during winter ball was acceptable.
For the optimists in the group. It looks like he had an especially terrible end to the season. Basically a reverse Bo. His last 250 PA are dark red (great) for the first 80% and then a deep dip at the end. It certainly looks like he was affected by injury towards the end of his season
I just like that we have guys who have been top quality, even elite, starting players in the recent past....that will be forced to ride the pine when we are healthy.
The biggest benefit of this depth is that we can both rest everyone liberallly, but even more importantly we can avoid the worst matchups for most everyone, and use them all in their more favourable matchups, which should make all their stats look a little prettier.
I too like the B Belt addition. A 1 year deal is a short term commitment. Last year of control of Ryu, Belt, KK, Chapman, Bass, Merrifield and maybe others. They are depth when there are injuries. The 2024 payroll will have money to spend with the above players coming off the books.
The hope is that by the mid point of 2023 the farm has produced some kids that are ready to graduate. That will help 2024 with replacements for the departing players.
The payroll has increased a lot this year. I don't know if the penalty is light or heavy for that. We had a chance in 2022 to be in a pennant race, make the playoffs and go deep into the playoffs. The 2023 team has a lower chance to achieve "make the playoffs" than the 2022 team IMO due to Seattle and Texas being "equal to Toronto" this year on paper rather than worse. But 2023 does have better depth, RH/LH balance and no Tapia/Zimmer than 2022 IMO.
The 13th position player would ideally be lefty mashing outfielder who would primarily pinch hits, but likely going to someone like Lopez who pinch runs, fills in at different positions in blowouts to give the regulars some innings off their feet. There's already enough defence and speed on the roster that a bat is more preferable for the 13th spot.
Hopefully the Jays can now flip Biggio for a reliever or an extra outfielder.
Junior Fernandez DFA.
Had a decent year as a swing man the year before last, but that was probably a fluke.The jays have traded Chavez Young to the Pirates for Zach Thompson.
— Blake Murphy (@BlakeMurphyODC) January 10, 2023
NOT pending physicals.
I just wish that the front office could find an equivalent for a right handed hitting OF.
That said, I really like what we've done this offseason.
I count 40 names on the Jays roster and Belt has not been added yet. I'm guessing one of Hatch, Merryweather or Thornton will be released to make room.
Thornton remains. Like a lingering cough.
In other news, Trevor Story out for season after TJ surgery.
If I were a team like the Pirates or Oakland, I'd give him a shot too. His velocity is great but his fastball was just too flat. If someone can fix that (big if), and he can stay healthy (also a big if), he'll be an elite reliever.
I’m actually happy for merryweather, he’s been so snakebit.
The depth is shaping up nicely. Young was expendable with KK and varsho able to Play cf. hope fernandez makes it through waivers, but we likely turn over the last few 40 man spots… hatch, gage, Lukes, Thornton … lots of guys could go,
I think we might be close to done, but if another value option like belt appears, we can still act.
Honest, for once I’m glad the FO is conservative / risk averse temperamentally … feels like the market was overheated?
he was probably also a heavy heavy shifts guy, for what it's worth.
He fractured his right fibula at 19. He had extensive ankle surgery.
It could have remained vulnerable--he limped after stealing a base last September--or it could be that something with the ankle causes him back pain.
He had no immediate path to play in Toronto.
It's all about Gabriel Martinez and Dasan Brown now.
Others would need to hit their way in. (Like Horwitz or Lopez)
Kevin Pillar?
i could see this team winning 100 games because they have lots of ways to win, but more importantly: fewer ways to lose. i think the last position player bench spot that people talk about a lot here is far less of a concern than the bullpen which is still just okay to my eyes. if they're where they should be in the standings by June, i think they should go get an elite reliever. i also think the lack of a left in the rotation is a glaring weakness.
ultimately, i think the team looks good going into the season. plus, if it works out they're set up for the next couple of years.
The Jays could be in a situation where their stars depart as FAs. There are also injuries to deal with C Sale/Ryu. The Jays adjusted by adding. Boston had bad luck regarding Sale. Seems to me Boston is weaker this year compared to last year.
Nothing is for sure but it seems to me that the AL West has stronger overall playoff contenders than the AL East.
Reyes was the SS. Played 69 games. Terrible defense. They got Tulo late. He played in only 41 games.
Ryan Goins had 69 starts at 2B, OPS+ 83. Devon Travis was good for 62 starts.
Collabello tried to play LF. Ezequiel Carrera played in 91 games. (OPS+ 88)
The backup catcher was Josh Thole, OPS+ 36.
Hutchison was the starting pitcher. Made 28 starts. ERA+ 103, but only 150 innings.
Buehrle made 32 starts, ERA+ 108, was left off the playoff roster.
Was the pen better than now?
Osuna,
Sanchez,
Hendriks,
Cecil,
Loup,
Bo Schultz,
Tepera
Steve Delabar,
There were a lot of guys getting chances (Jeff Francis, Todd Redmond, Scott Copeland, Miguel Castro, Colt Hynes, ) and they still acquired 2 (or was it 3) relievers at the deadline (LaTroy Hawkins, Mark Lowe, ?)
2015
* 3B Donaldson 711pa, 154wrc+, 8.0war650
* RF Bautista 666pa, 148wrc+, 5.1war650
* DH Encarnacion 624pa, 150wrc+, 4.7war650
* 1B Colabello 360pa, 143wrc+, 2.5war650
* 2B Travis 238pa, 136wrc+, 6.0war650
* C Martin 507pa, 115wrc+, 5.8war650
* CF Pillar 628pa, 94wrc+, 3.8war650
* SS Tulowitzki 183pa, 92wrc+, 4.3war650
* LF Revere 246pa, 102wrc+, 1.9war650
* 1B Smoak 328pa, 108wrc+, 1.4war650
* OF Carrera 192pa, 90wrc+, 0.3war650
* IF Goins 428pa, 85wrc+, 2.0war650
* C Navarro 192pa, 94wrc+, 0.5war650
* OF Pompey 103pa, 82wrc+, 0.7war650
* X Valencia 173pa, 127wrc+, 4.9war650
* X Reyes 311pa, 94wrc+, 2.1war650
* X Saunders 36pa, 47wrc+, 0.0war650
* SP Price 32gs, 60era-, 7.0war32
* SP Stroman 4gs, 41era-, 6.8war32
* SP Estrada 34gs, 77era-, 2.9war32
* SP Dickey 33gs, 96era-, 2.4war32
* SP Buehrle 32gs, 94era-, 2.0war32
* SP Hutch 30gs, 137era-, 0.2war32
* RP Osuna 68gs, 64era-, 1.5war65
* RP Sanchez 41gs, 79era-, 1.7war65
* RP Lowe 57gs, 49era-, 1.5war65
* RP Hendriks 58gs, 72era-, 1.4war65
* RP Cecil 63gs, 61era-, 1.3war65
* RP Hawkins 42gs, 75era-, 0.7war65
* RP Schultz 31gs, 88era-, -0.1war65
* RP Loup 60gs, 110era-, -0.1war65
* RP Tepera 32gs, 81era-, -0.3war65
* RP Delabar 31gs, 129era-, -0.6war65
The pen has never been very strong since the 2018 rebuild. Our opening day rotation has only been good on paper since 2022 Manoah, Gausman, Ryu, Berrios and Kikuchi with Stripling #6. 2023 has Manoah, Gausman, Bassit and Berrios. So only 4 compared to 6 for Opening day. A Matz or Stripling type surprise would be good. A Ray type surprise would be fantastic. I know that surprises happen. Manoah to me counts as that type of surprise.
We have the depth for a surprise like Hutch/Thompson and a few other veterans. I think Juenger can do 120 innings and Robberse 140 in 2023. Long shot I know.
1) 221+ run differential. If accurate (doubtful) but WOW!! Best by far in all of baseball.
2) We definitely had stars on offense.
3)Pitching: Great pen. Our rotation Dickey 214 IP, Buehrle 199 IP, Estrada 181 IP and Hutch 150 IP all #2s with 3 in their 30s. No #1 until D Price also 30s.
At the trade deadline this team was not strong in the standings. We all know that the deadline trades were the difference.
Rogers is to blame for the mid level payroll. They probably did not believe the fans would generate the revenue and had to be convinced. Halladay probably had to be convinced as well I think.
Shapiro is benefitting from the philosophy of the payroll increase. I never thought payroll would go as high as the 2023 estimate.
The 93 win 2015 team still has recent bragging rights.
For me the sour note in all of this exuberance about the 2023 team is that MLB is still a league where the team that spends more money has the better shot to win. Now we're the big fish. But longterm I would love to see a model where there was greater equity between the haves and the have-not teams.
In times like these, I always try to remember the wise counsel of WInston Wolf. I can never forget how the 2013 team looked all shiny and wonderful and had us all pretty excited. Until they actually started playing the games.
With a bit more room left before the next Tax threshhold, it would be nice to see them finish off with one more solid add. And really it could be anywhere - the bench has a spot open, the #5SP slot could use a better 1st option, and the pen could always use the help.
At that point all my complaints about their philosophy and tendencies will be moot, as they'll have definitely decided to go all in for the first time.
Unfortunately the biggest issue on the team is the $30m sunk into Ryu and Kikuchi which is likely to be completely wasted this year (and might actually hurt us on the field if we care too much about trying to recoup that money somewhow).
Of course, this being baseball, either of those guys becoming a good 5th SP this year wouldn't be a shocker, either.
I’m probably in the minority but I still worry about the rotation this year. They only have 3 guys that right now are reliable, 2 of whom are not spring chickens. If one of those 3 gets injured for an extended period and Berrios and Kikuchi don’t turn it around then it could be trouble. There is a wide variety of outcomes for the latter two, so hopefully last year’s troubles are behind them.
It was a team with glaring holes in several positions. Donaldson, Bautita and Encarnation were the best trio in of hitters in baseball, but that didn't make it a complete team.
The Yankees finished second with 87 wins. Orioles were third with 81.
After the games of 28 July, they were 50-51. Good for fourth place, 8 games back of the Yankees. Outer fringes of contention, I suppose. Anthopoulos wasn't planning to move on - he was expecting to get fired unless something really remarkable happened. Like the team winning 14 of their next 15 games.
If you're in the minority, that doesn't speak too well of the majority. The rotation - the pitching in general - is the obvious spot where the team needs to get better. Only one team in the AL scored more runs than the 2022 Jays. But they were very average at preventing the other guys from scoring. Just in terms of run prevention, they had the eighth best rotation and the ninth best bullpen.
I think it's unreasonable to expect Manoah to be as awesome as he was in 2022, but I also think it's unreasonable to expect Gausman to be as throrughly snakebitten as he was. It seems to me that they're really counting on two things: a) Berrios recovering his form, and b) better defense making all the pitchers better. The rising tide lifting all the boats (a cliche I've never before had occasion to use. What a day this is!)
He also fixed 2B by trading Anthony Gose for Devon Travis.
...with the best run differential in baseball.
Then they increase the payroll to be somewhat competitive, they won more games but still finished 3rd or 4th.
They still had only 1 or 2 decent starters beside Doc.
Last year, they had 4 starters with double digits wins.
Berrios was 12-7. He could pitch a lot better and do a lot worse this year.
The 5th starter not lasting long enough is an issue only if the same thing happens to the 3rd or 4th starter.
The Yankees have a better rotation.
1. Kikuchi improving (have the Jays found him a sports psychologist?)
2. White improving (he doesn’t have to be great, just fifth starter quality)
3. Ryu making it back by mid/late summer
4. Tiedemann earning a promotion by mid/late summer
5. Pearson getting healthy
6. One of the AAA arms (Zulueta?) or AAAA arms being adequate for a stretch of time if called upon
Each of these may have a modest chance of happening, but the team may only need one (maybe two) of them to happen. And the team should be able to find a mid/back rotation starter at the trade deadline if necessary.
Also the stronger defense should help everyone’s performance and lower the stress on the pitching staff.
I agree with the consensus that this is the best team we've seen for a while.
With all the enthusiasm lately about the Jays' season, I feel that I should have a dram of single malt in honour of Mylegacy.
Oh, for sure - I figure they're just betting that Berrios bouncing back and the improved defense are the ones most likely to work out.
Hey, Mitch White might turn out to be something. He didn't show me much last year - but the Dodgers stuck him in their rotation for two months, which in itself is enough to make me believe in him.
I'm liking the depth we're seeing here. A lot of these guys will be just 0 WAR filler but that beats having guys come in and stink up the place due to a shortage of options. Just gotta hope someone is hot whenever a guy goes down.
IMO the top need now is a LH reliever to finish the pen (as I've said a few times now), then a true 4th OF (power hitter ideally), and a good 5th starter (not a meh guy, we have those already). But as is I'm good with the Jays going into the season and seeing what they really need as the season moves along (is the pen OK as is? Can Merrifield be a solid 4th OF? Can Kikuchi or White fill that 5th starter role?).
For me it's 2004, back in the Zombie-Like Cult's heyday. The Blue Jays had an exciting young team coming off an 86-win season where Halladay won the Cy Young and Delgado could've been MVP, had just added a few veterans to complement the existing group of players, and even unveiled fancy new uniforms to take the team into the 21st century. I remember posting somewhere before the season (either here or on Baseball Primer) that I thought the Blue Jays would be challenging the Yankees for the division that year. I definitely didn't expect the team to lose 94 games.
That was special indeed. The Blue Jays version of Joe Pesci becoming a made man in Goodfellas.
The Jays just won 91 and 92 games.
No hitter had a career year last year except maybe Danny Jansen and he's only the backup catcher.
With the current lineup, 2 or 3 guys could be in slumps at any given time and it wouldn't matter as long as they continue to play good defense.
It's actually great that the Yankees are predicted to win the division.
It takes a lot of pressure off the team.
Reports say Jansen and the Jays have settled for $3.5M, Mayza has settled for $2.1M and Trevor Richards for $1.5M.
Only Bichette and Swanson remain from the arb eligibles.
Blue Jays and Bo Bichette are headed to an arbitration hearing after failing to reach agreement ahead of today’s deadline.
— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) January 14, 2023
The club struck deals with its 11 other arb-eligible players. pic.twitter.com/g0VXBUcGGU
- Vlad: $14.5 both
- Biggio: $3 est, $2.8 act
- Cimber: $2.85 est, $3.15 act
- Espinal: $2.3 est, $2.1 act
- Jansen: $4 est, $3.5 act
- Mayza: $2.35 est, $2.1 act
- Richards: $2.4 est, $1.5 act
- Romano: $3.5 est, $4.5375 act
- Swanson: $1.6 est, $1.25 act
- Thornton: $1.05 est, $1 act
- Varsho: $2.55 est, $3.05 act
So not a big difference (not sure if they adjusted Vlad's to the real figure or if they really estimated dead on, it is still in grey as estimates are there). Basically the Jays are $610k to the good, not enough to mean anything, and Bo could shift that way off either way depending on his hearing. In the past the Jays had a rule of if you file (as he has now) then they go to the hearing or they agree on a multi-year deal. No one year deal agreement after today. It'd be nice if they did a long term deal so we wouldn't need to think about his being a Jay for a few years but I don't see it happening.
He's been a better player than Vlad Jr. so far and it rankles him to get paid about 1/3 because of service time issues.
If you think you can be a perennial contender (like NYY) beyond 2025, then you could consider trading him for a player(s) with more years of control.
He and his camp anticipated this a year ago. You will recall that he and Manoah both rejected the team's offer (based on a scale for pre-arb players) last year. It meant both players actually took less money than the team was offering, but neither wanted to go on record as agreeing with the team's valuation of them.
The Jays seem to be in a very different situation now. If their star players want to chase the big dollars, then they may as well skip the extensions and adopt a “win now” approach — and then reset until the next window of contention.
Are there really a lot of those guys wandering the streets, looking to play shortstop for someone? If Dansby Swanson gets $177 million, if Xander Bogaerts gets an 11 year deal at age 30, Bichette has a license to print his own money. No matter what the arbitrator decides, he's a ridiculous bargain.
The arb hearing will go something like this. The Jays will point out that Corey Seager took $4 million his first time through the process, Xander Bogaerts took $4.5 million, and an arbitrator awarded Carlos Correa $5 million. The Jays love Bichette so much that they're offering him $5 million as well.
Bichette's camp will point out that all this was several years ago. Plus their man has been measurably better than Bogaerts was. Furthermore, he isn't coming off Tommy John surgery (Seager) and hasn't missed more than 50 games in each of the last two seasons (Correa.) So let's talk instead about Washington willingly offering Trea Turner $7.5 million when he likewise had three years and change of service time. And our man Bo has a) been a better hitter than Turner and b) done a better job at staying on the field.
And the Jays will say, ah but this was actually Turner's second time through the process, because he'd been a Super-Two and was already making almost $4 million....
And so on and so forth.
Third, you can't compare him to Swanson or any other defensively elite SS, at least not yet seeing how is is nowhere near their comparable defensively.
There are lots of guys available of similar value. Juan Soto, Julio Urias, Eloy Jiminez, Freddy Peralta, Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Tyler Glasnow ... you get the idea.
For direct comparables in age and contract you have the following:
Dustin May
Luis Robert
Kyle Tucker
Eloy Jiminez
Freddy Peralta
There probably isn't a one for one swap anywhere but I'm in favour of retaining top tier talent long term rather than losing a massive piece for nothing after an arbitrary window...not least because it's the player who wants to test and not due to the FO making a fair offer.
Yeah, I understand Bo can make a gazillion dollars but most teams that are able to find ways to sign players on team friendly or market fair deals (as opposed to paying the most or more than any other team to sign the player) end up being successful and competitive longer. If Bo is being unreasonable then ship him off for comparable talent that can be around long term however that be.
And that's the thing. There may be players of comparable value. There are always lots of bats. You still need a shortstop.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/why-bo-bichettes-wheels-fell-off-in-2022/
Plus of course, there are only so many teams that can sign a guy for 10+ years before we start seeing buyers remorse and teams pulling back - in the 70's there were lots of super-long term deals but by the mid 80's those cut back to 5 years max as a rule (sometimes up to 7) until the A-Rod/Man-Ram deals in the early 2000's started (and stopped) those long term deals again, then more recently they started up again and in 3 years teams might be going 'oh crap, what did we do'. Or the teams willing to go 10+ years will be maxed out at SS.
Also, it's not like Bichette is a guy that can be moved around easily. He might be OK at 2B. He can't play 3B.
The market in 2026 will depends on what he does in 2025. If it's a down year he could be looking at a short contract. The Jays would be nuts to extend Bichette if better players are on the market for the same money.
Also the Jays seem to be drafting shortstops every year. It's not like the outfield.
Franco was worth only 2.6 WAR because he only played 83 games.
Tim Anderson was worth 1.3 WAR in 79 games, but he's a 18 WAR player.
WAR is a bit misleading here. Shortstop gets a huge positional bonus.
Jeremy Pena was worth 4.8 WAR.
Xander Bogaerts was worth 5.8 WAR.
Jorge Mateo was worth 3.4 WAR.
Kiner-Falefa was worth 3.0 WAR in 142 games.
Bichette was worth 3.6 WAR in 159 games.
It's pretty significant that the Jays were able to reach agreements with everybody else.
Probably he'll have between 4-5 bWAR in 2024 if he stays healthy. Maybe more. That is a very good player, providing valuable marginal wins for the team.
The 2023 team is getting expensive due to necessity. Bassit gives us a solid SP for the rotation but is expensive for 3 years. KK and Belt are $9mil/yr which is expensive compared to Varsho $3mil VS any prospect that might play a lot in 2023.
Also increasing Arb totals for 2023.
By the end of the 2023 season we will know what we have and what we need for 2024. A big contribution from the farm could decrease 2024 payroll VS a small contribution from the farm increasing payroll. I also think a sufficiently low contribution from Jansen/Biggio could result in a non tender or 2024.
Chapman is a key piece that could move on for 2024 IMO.
Padres got a top catcher for 5.6M, Mariners a top SS for 4.7M and the Yankees a top outfielder for 4.4M.
Rays also got an outfielder for 3.7M.
That didn't stop the Mets from agreeing to a contract with Correa, and it didn't stop the Red Sox from signing Story. Heck, it didn't stop the Blue Jays from signing Semien.
I did the same about five years ago and watched a game in May. I imagine the temperature was similar to what you recently experienced.
Next winter should be very interesting. It'll be the ideal time to extend Vlad and/or Bo, Chapman will be a free agent, we'll have a much better read on Orelvis Martinez & Addison Barger among others. If either of Martinez or Barger is ready they'll take over 3B in 2024 most likely. If both are ready the Jays might look into trading Bo depending on how extension talks go (and every indicator says they aren't going to go well).
They have twins who will turn 6 next month.
In his place, I'd probably look for work closer to home.
Best of luck to him, whatever he does.
Lindor is one of the best.
Less shifting might put more pressure on Bo.
We'll soon see.
Bogaerts was very good in defense in 2022.
When moving from Chapman to a young player at 3B, it would help to have a premium defender at SS.
Contenders try hard to hold on to their top prospects, so Bo would probably bring back 2 or 3 B prospects.
A Bo extension seems totally out of the picture.
Vlad seems interested in staying but he will be expensive.
I see Vlad as someone who could be mentoring young Latino players as they graduate.
Ken Rosenthal hints at teams willing to top whatever KC offers.
Teammate: I like dogs better than cats. I think cat owners are weird.
Grienke: Yeah, you're right.
Teammate: I have a dog at home. You have any dogs, Zack?
Gienke: Nah, I just have 2 cats.
4 solid SPs with Kikuchi, Thompson and White all having ML experience for #5,6,7. Our pen is deep.
IF is deep. OF may be ok with Biggio, Espinal, Lukes and Lopez backing up Springer, Varsho, KK and Merrifield.
The Blue Jays aren’t sharing the exact dimensions of their new OF just yet but a tour of the dome amid ongoing reno work makes clear it’s going to play much different: https://t.co/m9Htlve4xq
— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) January 17, 2023