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Features Winter Meetings Thread
The winter meetings are underway in San Diego. The off-season has been relatively quiet so far. It is uncertain whether there will be deals at the winter meetings or just a lot of discussion.

There is chatter on Sunday night that a trade of Sean Murphy, from Oakland, is imminent. That would clear up the market for one of the Jays catchers, should there be a deal there to be done.

The rule 5 draft will end the meetings. It used to be held on Thursday morning as the attendees wait with their bags packed. This year it appears to have been moved to Wednesday at 5pm. There will also be the inaugural draft lottery on Tuesday.

Posted by Gerry on Sunday, December 04 2022 @ 07:46 PM EST.
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Shoeless Joe - Sunday, December 04 2022 @ 08:10 PM EST (#424669) #
I mentioned this in the other thread, but Bryan Reylonds for Moreno trade makes a lot of sense now, and then use whatever financial resources we have to improve the starting pitching. I also like Cody’s Bellinger as the 4th outfielder.
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Gerry - Sunday, December 04 2022 @ 08:17 PM EST (#424670) #
And congratulations to Fred McGriff, he is now a hall of famer. He was elected today by the new contemporary era committee.
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Gerry - Sunday, December 04 2022 @ 08:20 PM EST (#424671) #
McGriff averaged 6 WAR in his last three seasons in Toronto.
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John Northey - Sunday, December 04 2022 @ 08:47 PM EST (#424673) #
Looking back at McGriff's career I noticed his best year here in 1989 he led the league in HR, OPS, OPS+, was 5th in bWAR, but 6th in MVP votes - behind George Bell (!) among others. Bell had 3.0 WAR vs McGriff's 6.6, McGriff outdid Bell in HR, OBP, Slg but was well back in average (269 vs 297) and RBI (92 vs 104) which were the main stats for writers back then. Geez were they bad at these votes then. Jays won the AL East, but a Brewer (Robin Yount) with a lower OBP and a lower Slg% beat him out despite his team being 500 on the season, 8 games back in 4th place. A frustrating time for those of us who understood statistics. His best MVP finish was 4th with a teammate ahead of him again (David Justice) thanks mainly to RBI's this time, but Barry Bonds won it with a clean 9.9 bWAR so hard to complain too much. McGriff's main problem was he was too consistent - 2 years of 165 OPS+, 3 years in the 150's, 4 years in the 140's, just 3 sub 100's including his 3 game 1986 season and 27 game final season in Tampa. Every season with 100+ games he had an OPS+ of 106+. Negative WAR only in that tiny '86 and his final 2004 seasons (covering a total of 30 games).

Cool that he got all 16 votes. The voters also showed their hypocrisy by giving under 4 votes to Clemens/Bonds/etc. after giving 100% to the manager who got the ball rolling on PEDs Tony LaRussa and putting in the guy who encouraged it for years in Bud Selig. Final vote totals: Fred McGriff (16 votes, 100.0%); Don Mattingly (8 votes, 50%); Curt Schilling (7 votes, 43.8%); Dale Murphy (6 votes, 37.5%); Albert Belle, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Rafael Palmeiro each received less than four votes. With 16 voters and a max of 3 votes each there was a total of 48 potential votes to be given out, we know about 37 for sure, so no more than 11 for Belle-Bonds-Clemens-Palmeiro combined.
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John Northey - Sunday, December 04 2022 @ 09:01 PM EST (#424674) #
Not a fan of a Moreno for Reynolds trade. Reynolds is a good player, but not a 'wow' one imo - 2.9 WAR last year thanks to poor defensive ratings, 6.0 the year before, 0.5 in 2020, 4.2 as a rookie in 2019. Having him for ages 28-30 would be nice as those are prime years but I'd expect 3-4 WAR a year at best or basically Teoscar for the past 2 years. Nice to have, but would not be much of an improvement. Not worth giving up a top 5 prospect in MLB for. I'd rather go for a younger player who might still have growth space if I'm dealing a kid like Moreno or get a proven star (someone with 4+ WAR a year as the likely result)
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Shoeless Joe - Sunday, December 04 2022 @ 09:10 PM EST (#424675) #
Steamer has Reynolds as exactly 4 WAR next season, he also is a switch hitter which brings a different dimension to this line-up. He has been heavily shifted as a left handed hitter and hits much better when he is not shifted.
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dalimon5 - Sunday, December 04 2022 @ 10:33 PM EST (#424676) #
First off, Reynolds is not what this team really needs. Second, Pittsburg released a statement saying they are not planning to trade him. Third, Moreno is worth more than Reynolds and can get you a much better player than Reynolds. I expect Moreno to have a better WAR over 162 than Reynolds.
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John Northey - Sunday, December 04 2022 @ 11:33 PM EST (#424678) #
Right now I'd be surprised if they trade Moreno for anything short of a kings ransom. Jansen I see as far more likely to be traded as teams always are looking for veteran strong defense catchers who can hit and he is that - regardless of contender or non-contender. Non-contenders need that to help their young pitching staffs grow, contenders want reliable catchers. The Jays with Kirk and Moreno have a killer combo for years if they choose where one would catch and the other DH (Kirk) or play LF/3B/1B (Moreno).

It'll be interesting to see what happens. With Moreno's flexibility I could easily see the Jays going with 3 catchers for at least half the season - Moreno spending more time in LF/1B and Kirk at DH. Maybe Kirk with Manoah, Jansen with Berrios and whoever is #5, Moreno with Gausman (learning the ropes from a vet) while whoever they get to be #4 would be rotated around. Lots of potential.

My best bet is still an Arizona trade as the match is so good one has to think a deal is reachable. A lot depends on budget and who the Jays grab off the free agent market, if anyone. MLB Trade Rumors says the Jays are still after Verlander. So who knows? They get him and the budget is blown. Then they might just see if Moreno can handle RF and sign a few AAAA types to back him up if needed. Or do an Arizona trade for pre-arb types like Thomas.
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lexomatic - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 12:13 AM EST (#424679) #
<br>excited for my Ngtugg rookie card to be worth kore now
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lexomatic - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 12:18 AM EST (#424680) #
Thanks to autocorrect for the creative spelling of McGriff
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Jonny German - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 05:22 AM EST (#424681) #
Moreno has played a grand total of 44 innings in his pro career at positions other than catcher. His flexibility at this point is hypothetical and it makes absolutely no sense to pencil him in to a utility role.

The front office has to talk about being open to keeping all 3 catchers for the sake of negotiating with other teams. They lose leverage if the perception is that they have no choice but to make a trade. But if the 2023 season starts and all 3 are still in Toronto that'll be a major failure, the team will be much worse off with 3 catchers than it would be trading one of them for less than "equal value".

Consider for example a lopsided trade: Moreno for Alek Thomas. That's a very clear win for the Diamondbacks and a huge gamble for the Jays. But it would also put the Jays in a much better position for the next 2 years than they would be if they hung on to all 3 catchers.
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dalimon5 - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 07:48 AM EST (#424682) #
I agree that Moreno at a non C position does not make sense. From scanning Twitter and reading/listening to reporters and shows - I think either the Guardians or Cardinals will pony up and trade for one of our catchers. I’ll guess that Cleveland gets Sean Murphy and then the Cardinals trade one of their OF and a good prospect or bullpen piece for Kirk. I don’t think this FO will let Moreno go for anything other than a kings ransom as John said.
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bpoz - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 08:18 AM EST (#424683) #
Getting Verlander is a long shot. But if the jays do get him then we know something about how Rogers wants to run their team.

Over the last few years we have had bullpen days. My definition of a bullpen day is that no pitcher pitches 4 innings or more.

T Richards has done 1 & 2 innings. This was a planned bullpen day.

Berrios 1st game of the season .1 IP 4 ER. Unplanned bullpen day but the Jays won the game.

In April Kikuchi pitched 3 of 4 games with less than 4 innings. These were unplanned bullpen days. None of the other pitchers pitched 4 innings.

Against Milwaukee Kikuchi started gave up 5 runs 2 earned in 2 innings. Then 2 shutout innings from Thornton followed by 4 shutout innings from Max Castillo. So an unplanned bullpen day but by my definition Castillo's 4IP does not make it a bullpen day. This is my personal way of looking at it.

Mitch White most often did not pitch well. Sept 13 Merryweather was the opener 1IP 1 ER, next White 6IP 3Er. So not a bullpen day.

My conclusion is that until the Jays develop a strong rotation there will be planned bullpen days where no pitcher does at least 4 innings. Planned openers and an early exit by the starter with at least 4 IP from another pitcher. That is a very good long man or bulk pitcher. I don't know how this would be executed. But I see value in this.
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Shoeless Joe - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 09:32 AM EST (#424684) #
Brandon Nimmon is in town for face to face meetings, his market should heat up in the next few days.
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85bluejay - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 10:33 AM EST (#424687) #
Bit of irony discussing a potential Bryan Reynolds acquisition as I remember there was some surprise expressed when the Jays passed up the more highly regarded Reynolds (Pick 59) in favour of J.B. Woodman (Pick 57) in the 2016 draft. I would have to say no to a Reynolds acquisition - The Pirates will want much more than Moreno for a star like Reynolds and I don't think the Jays can afford the prospects capital required - Reynolds is not the long-term answer in CF as his defensive metrics has been declining and I expect he will need to move off CF maybe in a couple of years - Reynolds FA timeline is similar to Bo & Vlad and I don't expect the Jays will want 3 potential mega contracts coming due together.
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dalimon5 - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 10:39 AM EST (#424688) #
Shoeless,

Where did you hear about Nimmo being in town? Do you mean at the Winter Meetings?
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Shoeless Joe - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 10:47 AM EST (#424689) #
I mean at the winter meetings, he is meeting with the interested GMs. I did not clarify that very well.
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bpoz - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 10:50 AM EST (#424690) #
If Nimmo or any big FA is in SD then they are probably signed and are doing a publicity introduction.
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Paul D - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 11:06 AM EST (#424691) #
Spit balling an off the wall idea for conversation.. Would you make an offer to the Padres for Tatis?
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dalimon5 - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 11:15 AM EST (#424692) #
I would want to have nothing to do with Tatis. Right now I like the approach that I think the FO is taking which is steering the team away from comfortability and more towards "win win win." "Do not let the kids play" for lack of a better expression.

They hired Mattingly who is known for no BS to run the bench.

They shipped out Teoscar who was the fun of this team.

I always had the impression from camera shots that there were 3 groups in the Blue Jays dug out:

1. Bo, Biggio, Gausman, Jansen and Manoah who were no nonsense, get shit done and do your job. Old school.

2. Vlad, Teoscar, Espinal, Gurriel and Berrios who were "let's go, lets win and lets have fun." New school.

3. Chapman, Springer and Kirk who seemed to be able to do both. Glue guys.

Semien was strongly entrenched in the first group when he was here.

The robot, Halladay like guys from group 1 all sit on the bench or lean over the guard rail, watching intently as they dissect swings, pitch calls and the details of the game. The free and easy group always sits at the end of the dug out, usually on the floor and talking non stop during the game while they watch and commiserate, usually surrounding laughter and jokes from the looks of it.

Tatis would fit strongly in the 2nd group in my books while Manny Machado and Joe Musgrove (and most of the Padres actually) fit in the 2nd group. Give me another player with the attitude and reserve of Semien for this team.
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bpoz - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 11:19 AM EST (#424693) #
dalimon5, what about Russel Martin? How would you describe him?
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85bluejay - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 11:54 AM EST (#424694) #
I have to say, acquiring an injured prone, PED guy who likely is moving down the defensive spectrum and with an expensive long-term contract would be an off the wall idea.
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bpoz - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 12:41 PM EST (#424695) #
Verlander to the Mets 2 years $86mil with a vesting option.
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Glevin - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 12:49 PM EST (#424696) #
"Verlander to the Mets 2 years $86mil with a vesting option."

After losing deGrom would have been shocked they didn't land Verlander or Rodon. Don't think Jays were ever realistic in this market.
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John Northey - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 01:00 PM EST (#424697) #
That grouping makes sense - the good thing is if the Jays can sign both Bo and Vlad long term you have one of each of the big 2 groups who are stars and long term pieces. You always need a few 3's for sure - keep the team as a team and not just groups. But if you don't have the 'fun' crew then the game becomes a job for everyone and not as fun to watch.

We know the management pays attention to this stuff (character) so I don't see a Tatis type coming (he is too much fun, not enough business and his PED suspension mixed with motorcycle injuries suggests he isn't the type you'd want to build your team around.

My gut says they want to add to group 1 or 3, not 2 right now. And Gurriel is high risk of being dumped if the right deal comes along imo as well. So who fits and is a LH CF who is strong on defense? That is the challenge. Ideal is a 120 wRC+ type with positive defense in CF who bats left. Only 12 guys has a 120 wRC+ who played a fair amount in CF last year, of those 5 had a positive defensive score on FanGraphs - Judge, Michael Harris II, Byron Buxton, Brandon Nimmo, and Stuart Fairchild. Of note: Springer and Reynolds both had negative defensive scores. So which of those are left handed or switch hitters? Nimmo, Harris. Not much. In the 110's all are either righties or poor on defense. In the 100's you have Daulton Varsho, Cedric Mullins. 90's add Mike Yastrzemski, Jesús Sánchez, Leody Taveras, Kevin Kiermaier, Aaron Hicks, Brandon Marsh. Yeah, I'm getting down there now. What about insane glove, no bat? sub 90 wRC+ but top 10 on defense? Kyle Isbel (67 wRC+ but projected as high as 95 for '23), Trent Grisham (83 proj 106), and Jackie Bradley Jr.

Thomas who many including me would like was ranked 25th among CF for defense (out of 70) but is very young and has raw talent oozing out of him. So it gets complicated after the ones I listed above. You basically then get into potential which is very hard to measure.

So that gives us a list of who to watch the Jays chase imo - Gold standard: Nimmo, Harris (not available signed through 2031). Silver: Varsho (Arizona so available), Mullins (team control through 2025, in Baltimore so odds are wouldn't want to deal with a division rival). Bronze: Yastrzemski, Sanchez, Taveras, Kiermaier, Hicks, Marsh - hopefully the Jays don't go here unless as a 4th option. Then the Zimmer role: Isbel, Grisham, Bradley Jr. You can quickly see why the Jays are hot after Nimmo.
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85bluejay - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 01:51 PM EST (#424698) #
Whom do you prefer - Verlander (40 in February) 2/86.66 plus 35m option or DeGrom (35 next June) 5/185 - interesting choice by the Mets who had best information on DeGrom's medical.
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Shoeless Joe - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 02:08 PM EST (#424699) #
I would easily take Verlander
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John Northey - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 02:12 PM EST (#424700) #
Both deals seem nuts but obviously the teams felt they were reasonable. I'd go for Verlander's myself as 2 years isn't too bad and the worst case is $100 mil less risk. The option is only if he throws 140 innings in 2024 and is a player option for $35 mil. DeGrom seems a massive risk given his recent history of injury and entering his age 35 season but who knows? Maybe he is a Nolan Ryan/Randy Johnson type who can be better later (of course I have doubts on both for PED use given their career path and who they played with - Ryan with Ken Caminiti when he had his late career jump then went to Texas where Rafael Palmeiro was and a pitching coach who was known to hand out stuff in Tom House, Johnson became crazy good once he had some sit downs with Ryan). I put massive question marks beside anyone having new levels of 'wow' in their late 30's especially from the mid 80's to mid 00's when PEDs were all over the place (I count Canseco's emergence in '86 as the start of the era, Bonds forced retirement in '07 as the tail of it).

This winter will see a lot of deals teams will regret in 5 years as we see 10 year deals and the like signed plus 5+ years for pitchers. Gillick had the right idea with his 2 year limit on pitchers and 4 on hitters iirc (which was near impossible to stick to) - beyond that you are risking a $0 return. Thus Verlander for 2 with a vesting option makes sense, 5 for DeGrom does not. You have to factor in the market of course, but also plan on that limit - I'd go 3/5 for pitchers/hitters and anything beyond that needs to be earned in those initial years, and anything beyond age 31 is risking being a total write off. Verlander in 2022 was worth $48 mil according to FanGraphs and his contract shows that. 2018 and 2019 he was worth $51.4-$52.6 according to them as well. Basically if healthy he will earn that deal. DeGrom in 2018 was $72.3 and 19 $55.5 but never $40+ in any other season. Texas is counting on him doing his '18 and '19 years 3 times over those 5 years. That is a bad bet imo.
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85bluejay - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 02:35 PM EST (#424701) #
I know Joey Gallo bombed in NY but I'd be willing to give him a pillow contract he probably prefers to rebuild value.
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Shoeless Joe - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 02:39 PM EST (#424702) #
Trea Turner to the Phillies, first SS to sign and set the market
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Gerry - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 02:41 PM EST (#424703) #
Reports say Trea Turner is signing an 11 year deal with the Phillies. Turner is 29 so this contract takes him to age 40. Turner was looking to return to th East coast, he is from Florida and his wife is from New Jersey.

A couple of comments:

Classic Dombrowski, pay out the big bucks when you know you wont be around for the end of the deal.

There is lots of money in baseball.



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Hodgie - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 02:45 PM EST (#424704) #
In the hypothetical world where the Jays could trade for Tatis without giving up their young core, I would do that trade every day of the week. Tatis doesn't turn 24 until January and is on a contract ($21.3M AAV) that seems laughably cheap already. There are certainly issues with immaturity, but I am surprised that would be a bridge too far for some that had no issues trying to bring one Trevor Bauer into the fold.

No need to twist oneself into pretzels here finding reasons to avoid him, he is and will be one of the very best players in MLB for a very long time. The only real question is acquisition cost.

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Gerry - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 02:45 PM EST (#424705) #
There has been a lot of money spent on the few free agents to sign so far this off-season. Is this a sign of things to come or is it the big spenders getting out of the way early? I think its the former.

The Jays are reportedly close to their payroll limit, this inflation doesn't help them sign any free agents. They could get priced out of some of the better players.
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Glevin - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 02:49 PM EST (#424706) #
I think Turner's skill set will age pretty well but back end of deal with be terrible no matter what.

I'd love Tatis. He's had 2 full seasons worth of PA and has almost 14 WAR. He's immature for sure but that is something that often goes away with age and perhaps this past year has taught him a lesson.
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85bluejay - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 02:56 PM EST (#424707) #
Who are these "some" that wanted Trevor Bauer but not Tatis?
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Hodgie - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 03:21 PM EST (#424708) #
"Who are these "some" that wanted Trevor Bauer but not Tatis?"

Well, two of the three people in this thread that said No to Tatis have advocated for Bauer in the past. Not sure if you had an opinion one way or the other 85bluejay.

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85bluejay - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 06:10 PM EST (#424709) #
Perhaps I was too hasty on Tatis - there seems to be a lot of money in baseball.
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Lylemcr - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 06:36 PM EST (#424711) #
- I don't think Gurriel is going anywhere. His bat has too much potential and why sell low. Also... It is not like they have all these prospects waiting to replace him.
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Lylemcr - Monday, December 05 2022 @ 06:44 PM EST (#424712) #
Dalimon5-
I like how you put the teams into the three groups.

It is interesting how San Diego is heavily group 2. It probably tells you why they have a hard time closing the deal with so much talent.

From an outsider, this is what I put the team %
Group 1 Group 2 Group 3
(Serious) (Fun) (switch)
Toronto 40 40 20
NYY 50 30 20
Seattle 70 20 10
Houston 30 30 40


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Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 06:47 AM EST (#424713) #
The Jays being in on Heaney might suggest their not looking at the top of the pitching market.
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Gerry - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 07:18 AM EST (#424714) #
Reports say Heaney has a three year offer but is holding out for a fourth year.
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Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 07:46 AM EST (#424715) #
I’m not sure the durability is there for a 4 year deal, I think I would rather T. Walker in the mid rotation market.
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Jonny German - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 07:50 AM EST (#424716) #
The Jays being in on Heaney might suggest their not looking at the top of the pitching market.

Reports have also been that they were in on Justin Verlander and Kyle Gibson... which is to say very much top of market and also so low in the market you have to think they've been considering adding 2 starters.

I'm now hoping for Kodai Senga. And I'd rather they take their chances with Kikuchi and White for the last rotation spot than spend $10M on the next Tanner Roark.
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Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 07:52 AM EST (#424717) #
The star reported a few hours ago that the Jays are also in on Kodai Senga.

I agree that we should avoid a Tanner Roark scenario.
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Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 07:56 AM EST (#424718) #
Senga would bring a devastating splitter which the Jays love.
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bpoz - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 08:21 AM EST (#424719) #
The Marlin's strength is their young extra pitchers. Only S Alcantara will not be traded. M Meyer has an elbow sprain but may be ready for ST or sometime in 2023.

They are going to trade for immediate offense and within their payroll range.

I expect their moves to be done by early/mid Jan.
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bpoz - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 08:54 AM EST (#424720) #
The draft lottery is tonight for nonplayoff teams.

We can actually figure out where the Jays will draft.

Since the Jays lost in the WC round they get a higher pick than the winners.

The WC losers Jays, NYM, TB and St Louis I believe. My thinking is TB #19, Jays 20 and St Louis/NYM 21/22.
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James W - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 09:18 AM EST (#424721) #
Picks 19 through 30 are decided (kind of).

19. Rays
20. Blue Jays
21. Cardinals
22. *Mets
23. Mariners
24. Guardians
25. Atlanta
26. *Dodgers
27. Padres
28. Yankees
29. Phillies
30. Astros

The Mets and Dodgers picks will drop 10 spots if they exceed the initial competitive-balance tax threshold of $230 million by more than $40 million. (How is this not determined yet...?)
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Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 10:15 AM EST (#424722) #
On the morning lineup on MLB radio they mentioned that Danny Jansen is the catcher from the Jays who has been floated around the most.
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dalimon5 - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 10:21 AM EST (#424723) #
Nice tidbit Joe.

If Jansen is the catcher they try to move then it would explain why a trade hasn't happened yet as other options at C on the market are clearly better and will need to be moved first before Jansen is moved.
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Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 10:29 AM EST (#424724) #
MLB trade rumours implied that the Cardinals are waiting to see how the Vasquez market goes and then they might be in on Danny Jansen.

From their MLB roster Dylan Carlson, Lars Nootbaar or Nolan Gorman would be the ideal fits for the Jays, with likely Gorman being the most available.
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John Northey - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 10:59 AM EST (#424725) #
Nootbaar has lots of love around here, LH CF with a 125 wRC+ last year makes him very tempting. 2.4 on defense (Fangraphs) or 0.1 on defense (BR) - either way a positive. But he was mainly in RF(79 games) vs CF (12 games). The Cards didn't have a regular CF (most used was Harrison Bader with a 94 OPS+ over 72 games). I see him as a solid RF who'd move over when needed to CF but generally would be left in RF which would be a massive upgrade on defense vs Teoscar but not as big on offense. Nootbar has just over 1 year (1.076) in the majors so wouldn't be a super-2 and has 5 years of control left - very big pluses. He'd be a nice one to get.

Carlson is a switch hitting OF who mainly played RF (87 games) but had a lot of time in CF (60 games). Just a 100 OPS+ so not as good a hitter with a horrible 316 OBP last year. Well over 2 years of service time (+104 days) so a free agent after 2026. He lands under 'solid 4th OF' imo, perfect for the role Tapia had this year.

Gorman holds no interest to me as a 2B with a 106 OPS+, but has a full 6 years of control which is nice. Negative on defense according to BR. Outside of years of control he isn't anything special vs what we already have at a crowded position imo.
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Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 11:06 AM EST (#424726) #
The Cardinals also will want to open a corner outfield spot for Jordan Walker, and might be willing to move a MLB outfielder. I agree that Lars nootbar is the ideal candidate for the Jays.

Gorman to me has the highest upside, and has serious power but also swing and miss and requires a defensive home.
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dalimon5 - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 11:43 AM EST (#424727) #
If they can get Gorman or Nootbar for Jansen that would be a serious win for the Jays.

Yankees just gave 6 mil per year to Kahnle and are now meeting with Nimmo. Hopefully it means Judge to Giants. Then the Yanks can sign Nimmo and the Mets and Rangers can battle it out for Rodon. Then Heaney can sign here and then the Jays can go make the trades we all want for a LHH OF and SP.
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Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 12:08 PM EST (#424728) #
Heyman also mentions that the Jays are in on Cody Bellinger who wants a 1 year 20 million reset, but that seems unlikely.
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Petey Baseball - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 01:29 PM EST (#424729) #
Sometimes I just don't agree with the logic of some of these moves. The Jays are willing to give four years to Hyun Jin Ryu, a guy while rock solid and occasionally elite during his career, was injured plenty. They're reportedly ready to pay Andrew Heaney around the same amount in terms and years.

What is the reasoning for not being serious players for DeGrom at six years? Even if you wash away two of those seasons for injury, age, and underperformance, he's still worth it. The only argument I could see is if the Jays are looking ahead to monster deals for Vladdy, Bo and Manoah, which aren't a given. Isn't the window of contention basically the next three years? Help me out here.
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dalimon5 - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 01:52 PM EST (#424730) #
You just questioned why they signed a pitcher with injury concerns from 3 years ago then in the same post suggested that they sign a player who was injured more than he pitched in the past 2 years, cost a serious ton of money and could seem to get the contract he wanted from a state free place.

Ryu signed with the Jays because nobody else offered him the same money and years.

The Jays seem inclined to pay for upside rather than paying a guy for the next few years based on his last few years of performance. Why risk adding DeGrom on the downturn of his career while paying at a rate commensurate for the peak of his career?

The Jays interest in Verlander seemed an exception because that player isthe exception. Short term commitment for elite production at that age. I don't think anybody thinks DeGrom will be that good in 5 or 6 years.
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Ducey - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 02:06 PM EST (#424731) #
Help me out here

Degrom may not have had any interest in the Jays. He apparently didnt give the Mets a chance to counter the Rangers' offer.

Plus that could be a debilitating contract for a team that likely doesnt want to get into the competitive balance tax range if they can help it. If he is hurt for much of it, it could really impact their ability to sign guys like Vlad and Bo. Just look at what the $20 million for Ryu this season is doing.

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Lylemcr - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 03:13 PM EST (#424732) #
I hope the Yankees sign Judge. At 30 years, he is definitely near the Apex of his career. He is a big guy. 6-7 280lbs. I don't know the numbers, but I can't imagine big guys like this can maintain their quickness and health into the 30s(without steriod help).

The only HOF that I can think of that sustained it (without injury) is Dave Winfield.

Can anyone think of other players?

Bottom line for me, I think whoever signs him will regret it long term. But that is more of a gut feel than based on any statistics.
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85bluejay - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 03:26 PM EST (#424733) #
I think it's all about ownership and the budget - I think most FO would spend to acquire top talent especially in their competitive window - I'd just assume the Jays budget doesn't allow them to compete for DeGrom.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 04:29 PM EST (#424734) #
Frank Thomas was very good until age 39.   From age 31 to 39, Thomas generated 23 bWAR despite being a DH throughout the period.  Judge has a good chance to beat that thanks to his defensive value over the next few years. 
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Gerry - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 04:31 PM EST (#424735) #

From Shi Davidi

Joel Wolfe, the agent for Kodai Senga, says the feee agent right-hander recently visited 6-7 cities but “only one country.” Senga wants a long term deal, Wolfe adds, and has already been offered contracts of 5-6 years.

That doesn't sound good.

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Gerry - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 04:32 PM EST (#424736) #
Heaney to the Rangers, per Ken Rosenthal.
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vw_fan17 - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 04:43 PM EST (#424737) #
At this point, I think we need to make a somewhat-above-market offer to Stripling ASAP. And find ourselves a Kikuchi-whisperer.

It feels like very few FAs want to go north.We may regret trading Teoscar a LOT during the season.
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Gerry - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 04:43 PM EST (#424738) #
Seems like a two year deal with an opt out after year one for Heaney.
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85bluejay - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 04:52 PM EST (#424739) #
Whenever quality Japanese talent are posted I assume they have little interest in coming to Toronto.
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John Northey - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 05:08 PM EST (#424740) #
Heaney signed for 2 years $25 mil total. Only once over 130 IP (180 in 2018) and just 72 2/3 last year. He has great BB-SO numbers but his HR/9 is scary high (1.7 last year, 2.0 the year before, 1.6 lifetime) entering his age 32 season - I see hope there but he isn't any better than Kikuchi on the risk measure imo.

Nimmo meeting with the Yankees (as any sane free agent should), Judge reported to have been offered $360 mil by the Giants. Senga getting 5+ year offers pushes him to the 'um, maybe not' category imo - entering his age 30 season with 0 ML experience and 3.4 BB/9 lifetime in Japan makes me a bit nervous.

Given the size of deals so far, and rumored as well, I'm thinking the Jays just say 'screw it' and do trades to fill the OF/LH bat need and the 4th starter hole. Guess we'll see.
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Gerry - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 05:10 PM EST (#424741) #
Heaney had nine offers.
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Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 05:12 PM EST (#424742) #
That’s a very reasonable deal for Heaney, although ultimately I think he’ll find success as an Andrew Miller multi inning reliever ace.
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85bluejay - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 05:17 PM EST (#424743) #
Joey Gallo is probably looking for a pillow contract - I'd take a shot.
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uglyone - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 05:20 PM EST (#424744) #

Asked Mark Shapiro about #BlueJays willingness to become a tax paying team: "It's not an obstacle for us. It's not what will limit us."

— Gregor Chisholm (@GregorChisholm) December 6, 2022

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Gerry - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 05:23 PM EST (#424745) #
Heyman says Judge is headed to the Giants.
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vw_fan17 - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 05:26 PM EST (#424746) #
Given the size of deals so far, and rumored as well, I'm thinking the Jays just say 'screw it' and do trades to fill the OF/LH bat need and the 4th starter hole. Guess we'll see.
Either you overpay a FA, or your overpay in prospects - it's a seller's market..

I mean, our farm system isn't exactly stocked. And we traded Teoscar for a couple of good pieces, but we're essentially down one starter (in the field) due to that, with no obvious replacement. I guess Springer in CF, Bigio in right, for now?

Jansen might get a 4th starter back, or maybe a salary dump of someone signed to be a 1st/2nd who is underperforming. I don't think he's getting anyone of Teoscar's caliber in return. Especially in a slim market for LF-hitting above-average CFs. Would we trade Tiedeman for such a unicorn?


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85bluejay - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 05:33 PM EST (#424747) #
I will believe the Jays are willing to go into the luxury tax level when it actually happens - I just think what Shapiro said should be taken with a large grain of salt - it's not what the FO says but what they actually do.
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Gerry - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 05:34 PM EST (#424748) #
Heyman now hedging his bets.
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Nigel - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 05:53 PM EST (#424749) #
I know most people don’t care, but I do find those kinds of answers by Atkins and Shapiro irritating. Normally, I ignore the things they say - they aren’t alone in their obfuscation of their plans etc from public scrutiny and reporting. I don’t mind that at all. In this case, it’s so obviously untrue. There is zero history of the team spending above the level of a (upper) middle market club. It isn’t going to happen now. There are so many other ways to dodge the question without that ridiculous answer.
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Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 06:05 PM EST (#424750) #
My optimism for this off season is dwindling.
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Paul D - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 06:20 PM EST (#424751) #
Looks like Bellinger to the Cubs for $17.5 million
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Gerry - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 06:20 PM EST (#424752) #
Bellinger to the Cubs, one year $17.5M.
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bpoz - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 06:27 PM EST (#424753) #
I admit I don't know the Jay's plan. So I have to guess.

1) Ownership liked what they saw in 2015/16 so they wanted to keep it going. EE was offered a big contract but turned it down.

2) Shapiro I think wanted to rebuild after 2017 was a 76-86 record. 2018 was a worse record and had injuries to Donaldson and Martin. Both were strong players that finally had age affect them.

3) Continuing on we had great prospects arrive as well as 1 year contract players like Semien/Ray/Matz that had career years. We enjoyed the benefits of 2020/21/22. You have to give Atkins the credit for bolstering the pitching at the trade deadline in each year. He did acquire some duds.

4) Ryu's contract was limited payroll damage compared to 5/6 years and without him 2020 and 2021 would not have been successful.

5) At the moment Ryu, Springer and Gausman are expensive. Ryu's value was low value in 2022 and is expected to be low value in 2023. Springer has not had a good year for us yet. Gausman at age 31 gave us one of his better years. I don't expect him to do that every year for the length of his Jay's contract. But as a "richish" team we accept this negative because winning does generate big money in our market.

6) Our team would be as successful in 2022 if Ryu was with another team. Same for 2023 due to his expected low contribution. But the $20mil/yr cost is a factor somehow.

7) Covid opened our playoff window in 2020. Semien/Ray/Matz kept it going in 2021. $18mil for Semien is not payroll damaging because it is for 1 year only.

8) Shapiro/Atkins "could" have waited until 2022 to open the window. This means no expensive Ryu/Springer and maybe Semien. Gausman?? Berrios?? Maybe yes/no. It is getting hard to think now.

9) After the 2018 trade deadline Teo/Gurriel/Jansen/McGuire were promoted. 2019 Vlad, Bo, Biggio. 2020 Kirk, Pearson. 2021 Manoah. All these players contributed more value than their cost.

If the plan is to have a long window up to 2030 then payroll is a big consideration. Talent has to come from the farm.

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dalimon5 - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 06:36 PM EST (#424754) #
I liked the Teoscar trade but that thought is quickly changing with the lack of action by the Jays.
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bpoz - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 06:49 PM EST (#424755) #
By the time the trade deadline approaches all teams know how all their players are performing. They then determine if they are buyers or sellers (throw in the towel).

We then get the results of the games played after the trade deadline. Surprises seem to happen.

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christaylor - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 07:30 PM EST (#424756) #
I would have liked Bellinger but I wonder if he wanted a non-competitive team that would give him a long leash. Here if he struggled he could find himself fighting for playing time with Biggio or Merrifield.

I'm warming to Nimmo but think whoever signs him will have a couple of years of regret. Didn't Atkins say he's focused on trades? None of the names (outside of SS and Judge) jump out as good signings.
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bpoz - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 07:36 PM EST (#424757) #
Jay's moves will be slow. Mid Jan. Prove me wrong!!
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dalimon5 - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 07:49 PM EST (#424758) #
At this point im hoping for a Rodon and Brantley signing plus one trade involving one of the catchers.
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Gerry - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 08:35 PM EST (#424759) #
Mitch Haniger to the Giants.
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Shoeless Joe - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 09:22 PM EST (#424760) #
T. Walker off the board, the starting pitching options are starting to run out.

Rodon, Eovaldi and possibly Senga are the only real playoff starter left. Tailion has more mid rotation upside in my opinion.
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Kasi - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 10:04 PM EST (#424761) #
Despite the success the Jays have had in getting FA to come I still think it’s more difficult than most to get players here even if the reasons are not that valid. Walker for 4/72 seems a bit more pricey than I’d expect. I do wish they had just qualified Stripling but it’s crazy how prices have spiked again. Wonder if the Jays missed that.
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Gerry - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 10:07 PM EST (#424762) #
Reportedly Boston had higher bids than the winners for a couple of the recently signed free agents but were rebuffed. After years of being pressured by the union to take the most money on offer, it seems now that some players are taking the offer that appeals to them, either for geographical or personnel reasons.
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Gerry - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 10:51 PM EST (#424763) #
Reports say the Jays offered Heaney more money than he took from the Rangers.
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Ryan Day - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 11:09 PM EST (#424764) #
Heaney's from Oklahoma, so Texas is the next best thing to playing at home.
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Lylemcr - Tuesday, December 06 2022 @ 11:24 PM EST (#424765) #
You have to assume that the teams want to play for the Jays. This is starting to smell like the Jays will get a pitcher that they will regret signing. I am not liking the left. We will probably sign a Dylan Bundy or something.

They need to get Stripling back and hope that either Berrios or Kikuchi can be reclaimed. Maybe sign a couple midrange projects that could be helpful in a leadership role.

I think the success of the Jays starting staff really depends on one (or more) of the young prospects stepping up. The way Tiedemann has shot up the system, it smells of a pitcher ready to start in MLB. That is who I think it will be. Zulueta or Robberse are intriguing as well.


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Gerry - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 07:27 AM EST (#424766) #
Jameson Taillon to the Cubs, 4 years, $68M.
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dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 08:21 AM EST (#424767) #
Jays also offered the same or more money to Kyle Gibson who signed with the Orioles.

Go trade Orelvis, Pearson and Kirk for Shane Bieber.

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Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 08:35 AM EST (#424768) #
Judge back to the Yanks, I would assume Rodon returns to the Giants shortly with the money freed up.
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dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 09:00 AM EST (#424769) #
Wow what a winter meetings. Basically only Correa, Bogaerts and Rodon left from the good free agents.

Next free agents of interest:

Nathan Eovaldi
Noah Syndergaard
Michael Brantley
Chris Bassitt




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christaylor - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 09:04 AM EST (#424770) #
Being FA, they can have whatever reasons they want for not choosing the Jays. If a pitcher wants to work to Rutschman, so be it. No QO to Stripling looks like a bad idea now, but he'd likely have rejected it. The QO system seems broken to me designed to be a resentment trap. I liked Walker when he was here but the term on that deal seems long. AAV not that out of line. FA are expensive this year.
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dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 09:23 AM EST (#424771) #
San Diego had a strong final offer to Judge. Jesus. They went after Turner then Judge. They want to spend big.
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Chuck - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:10 AM EST (#424772) #
No QO to Stripling looks like a bad idea now, but he'd likely have rejected it.

Even if he had, the QO would have given his pursuers pause, knowing they'd lose a draft pick, and made it easier for the Jays to negotiate a longer term contract with him.

I wonder how many front offices were aware of the new normal this wave of new contracts would represent, and how many were genuinely surprised. Can you be in the latter camp and be seen to have been doing your job effectively?

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bpoz - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:36 AM EST (#424773) #
Very exciting meetings. The draft lottery was nice. Some teams have not made any moves yet.
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vw_fan17 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:49 AM EST (#424774) #
$400M/10 offer to Judge by the Padres? Where did they get all those $$ from? Hopefully not crypto :-)

The problem is - they now have $400M/10 burning a hole in their pockets.That's probably enough to sign Nimmo and Rodon and have $$ left over.

At this point, if I'm Ross Atkins, I focus on one player I really need, maybe two, overpay 20-30% and HOPE to get him/them. The "value" play seems out the window this year. Look at: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mlb-trade-rumors-top-50-free-agents-predictions-2022-23.html and how much they estimated and how almost everyone who has signed has gotten 10-20% MORE than projected, some even more than 20% over. Inflation is wild this year.


Sure, you can (almost) always get value by signing 3 or 4 end-of-the-offseason relievers to cheap contracts and having one get hot, but we traded for a bullpen piece and we are pretty much set in the pen, I would think. We need starters and fielders, and those aren't as easy to dumpster dive for.

With our "years of control" and "value spending" approach, we're getting bupkis this year.. 

I know, I know. Grumpy old man syndrome.
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Ryan Day - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 11:01 AM EST (#424775) #
Let's just do something crazy like sign Correa and move Bo to centre field.
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Gerry - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 11:01 AM EST (#424776) #
Who would want to be the GM of a team that is not one of the big guys (NYY, LAD, etc.), not in a prime location or one with a big spending owner?

The Yankees and Dodgers can outspend anyone. More players come from Florida or California and those states often are preferred for family reasons. Some states also have low tax advantages. Finally some teams have owners who just want to win and are willing to splash the cash, such as the Mets, the Padres and the Phillies right now.

That leaves lots of other teams who have to be very smart or very creative to win. For example Tampa Bay and Cleveland seem to have a team philosophy that helps them succeed.

Unfortunately the Blue Jays do not have a splash the cash owner, are not in a desirable location, and do not seem to have a smart or unique approach.

I will agree being the GM of the Jays is a tough job. The Jays need a standout GM, not an average one.
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bpoz - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 11:02 AM EST (#424777) #
Rule 5 draft this evening may be interesting.

We have 5 OF on our 40 man. Springer, Gurriel and Merrifield have experience. O Lopez and N Lukes have no ML experience. Biggio and a couple of other players can play the OF.

Miami cannot afford to go FA. They are offering SPs for Offense.
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Gerry - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 11:09 AM EST (#424778) #
Kenley Jansen to the Red Sox.

Jose Quintana to the Mets.
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Ryan Day - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 11:27 AM EST (#424779) #
The Cardinals are apparently close to signing Wilson Contreras, removing a popular potential trade partner.
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Nigel - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 11:28 AM EST (#424780) #
Hard to look at what’s happened and not come to the conclusion that the Jays completely misread the market in the Teoscar trade. Both in misunderstanding his own value in these market dynamics or what could be achieved with those salary savings. Ooops
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SK in NJ - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 11:28 AM EST (#424781) #
Keep in mind that when the Jays made their big splashes with Springer, Semien, Gausman, etc, it was during a time when there was a lot of financial uncertainty in the game. The winter of 2020 was coming off the pandemic shortened season where almost every team was not spending money, and then the following winter was a combination of revenues still not fully recovered plus an impending lockout. This winter features a new CBA, league revenues reaching $11b (so right back to pre-pandemic levels), and more teams spending money. The Jays are going to have a tough time getting free agents again even if they offer more money. Players have way more options now as the Jays are no longer one of only a handful of teams spending.
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85bluejay - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 11:35 AM EST (#424782) #
With all the money being spent in FA, I recall two things I read last year - Kevin Goldstein, after his return to Fangraphs from his stint in Houston was asked about baseball finances and he basically said that before Houston he felt that owning a MLB team was kind of like owning a license to print money and after his Houston stint his opinion had not changed - Leading up to the labour strife last year the owner of the Cardinals whining to his friends at the St.Louis Post how difficult it was to make a buck owning a MLB team.
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ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 11:52 AM EST (#424783) #
I'm more in favor of trading for a good, young, left-hitting centerfielder with upside and putting the available money toward pitching. I'd imagine the Giants, Padres and even Dodgers will be after Nimmo now and what's left isn't as enticing. I'm getting antsy for the Jays to do something, though.

I also don't think that Atkins/Shapiro would be surprised by the money being thrown around for free agents. Trading Teoscar was more for trying to balance out the right-handedness of the batting order.
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bpoz - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 11:52 AM EST (#424784) #
S Murphy still has not been traded. So still lots left to happen.

Nobody is talking much about the change in shifting and the other changes. Also the league seems to change the baseball without telling anyone.

The GM meetings were Nov 8-10. Teo traded Nov 16 so Atkins and all the other GMs knew what was happening and what to expect.

Arizona with a surplus of OFs traded for Kyle Lewis. They should make moves.
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Cracka - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 12:01 PM EST (#424785) #
I think that Contreras signing will be the catalyst for one of our catchers being traded - he was clearly the Cards #1 choice and that's likely similar for other catcher-needy teams... so now the market shifts.

I would not be surprised at all to see us select a speedy defensive outfielder in the Rule V draft. With the new rules forcing a four-man bench, there is more space to stash a specialist, like we did with Zimmer most of last season. Costs have doubled this year though - it's now $100k per selection - so I'm guessing that fewer players will be selected this year than in the past.
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Petey Baseball - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 12:20 PM EST (#424786) #
"I will agree being the GM of the Jays is a tough job. The Jays need a standout GM, not an average one."

They just need one that's not afraid of risk. Compare the Phillies to the Blue Jays moves this off-season. The Phillies were in the World Series, the Jays lasted two games in the playoffs. Yet the Phillies spend on elite talent, the Jays don't. Tough to take.

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Joe - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 12:51 PM EST (#424787) #
Petey, the Jays spend on elite talent: just look at Ryu, Springer, and Gausman.
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bpoz - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 12:58 PM EST (#424788) #
NYM & LAD have their top draft pick drop 10 spots because they over spent.

Houston won 108 games. Phil 87 games. TB & Milwaukee 86 games. So IMO the Phillies were not that great a team.

In 2021 Atlanta won 88 games and won the WS. They were worse than NYY/Boston with 92. Toronto 91 and Seattle 90. So the worst playoff team won the WS.

That is why many Bauxites including me believe that the playoffs are a crapshoot.

There are a few big FAs like Correa still available for anyone to sign. There is also the possibility of an impact trade or 2 yet to come.

If the jays don't sign a big FA or make an impact trade then this is the team that we have with just a few touch ups to come.

So can this team make the playoffs? Texas will be a lot tougher with their additions and a new manager. Other teams have also made big improvements.

I expect the 2023 season to have a lot more playoff contenders.
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Lylemcr - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 12:59 PM EST (#424789) #
We always assume that players want to come here. I think it is important for the Jays to have a strong farm system to be competitive.
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jerjapan - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 01:14 PM EST (#424790) #
Question for you guys - if we extend bo and vladdy to fair market deals, win-wins, is this off-season a win or loss, regardless of other moves?
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bpoz - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 01:16 PM EST (#424791) #
St Louis signed W Contreras to a 5 year deal.
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85bluejay - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 01:24 PM EST (#424792) #
Re Bo & Vlad extensions - it's tough to say as length of contract will have a big impact on how I view the deal.
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Glevin - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 01:52 PM EST (#424793) #
This is incredible. A study on the baseballs found that the league used deadballs for every occasion except postseason and Yankees games. All that talk about Judge's record purity and the league put its finger on the scale.
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Polite Nate - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 02:05 PM EST (#424794) #
Pitchers especially seem like they are going for more than I'd expect. Kikuchi contact not looking so bad by comparison, and might regret not giving Stripling the QO at this point.
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dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 02:37 PM EST (#424795) #
Well, the Blue Jays front office, must be at a point of "let's think outside of the box," to try to muster up a new plan.

With Sean Murphy still available via trade it will be awhile before they can find a taker for JAMOKI (Jansen/Moreno/Kirk). With St. Louis out of it there are only a few realistic trade partners. Guardians, Marlins and Diamondbacks probably in that order since the Diamondbacks aren't really in a spot to contend or even try to contend.
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ayjackson - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 03:06 PM EST (#424796) #
Come again, Glevin?
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vw_fan17 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 03:12 PM EST (#424797) #
With Sean Murphy still available via trade it will be awhile before they can find a taker for JAMOKI (Jansen/Moreno/Kirk)
Shaka, when the walls fell...
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lexomatic - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 03:14 PM EST (#424798) #
This is incredible. A study on the baseballs found that the league used deadballs for every occasion except postseason and Yankees games. All that talk about Judge's record purity and the league put its finger on the scale.
Come again, Glevin?
Yup this needs a source. This would be a pretty big scandal for the league.
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vw_fan17 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 03:16 PM EST (#424799) #
We always assume that players want to come here. I think it is important for the Jays to have a strong farm system to be competitive.

This 100x. Just the hassle of crossing the border, covid unknowns (will there be a new lockdown / do players still need to be vaccinated?), etc.

I would be willing to bet that, aside from the bottom 3-5 organizations who are clearly not going anywhere in the next few years, good/great players who want to win generally view Toronto as their least favourite / choice of last resort.
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Glevin - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 03:19 PM EST (#424800) #
Source... https://twitter.com/BWDBWDBWD/status/1600254602120556544?t=C79we0N7-27oj8KHQ3jkWw&s=19


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Petey Baseball - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 03:24 PM EST (#424801) #
"Petey, the Jays spend on elite talent: just look at Ryu, Springer, and Gausman."

Agreed. But what about last years trade deadline? What about this off-season? I'm not sure I can be convinced Andrew Heaney is going to move the needle much. At best he's J.A. Happ from '16-'18. They're probably going to lose Stripling, which to me even had they landed Heaney, it means their rotation is marginally better, if not, it's a wash.

Which is why I go back to their aversion to risk. Say it would have taken seven years to get Jacob DeGrom here. Or it would have cost most of our farm system to get Juan Soto. Our viewing of it is so skewed towards avoiding the albatross contact, we're losing sight of what's going to push the team to the next level at this stage. If we're not going to spend significantly more, we're banking on Jays farmhands developing into elite players. It doesn't happen often, and even with supremely talented/hyped guys like Vladdy and Bo, you end up with prolonged struggles to go along with the highs.

Other teams with ownership/payrolls similar to the Jays are overpaying for elite talent. The closest the Jays have gotten to a W.S. was in '15 when they went for broke. I'd like to see this F.O. take that approach, but they won't.
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Kasi - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 03:55 PM EST (#424802) #
They went for Berrios in the 21 trade deadline. Sorry if you thought Soto was ever realistic. We just don’t have the trade chips a team like San Diego did. Anyway that team in 15 went all in and in 17 they were done for years. Don’t think that’s a great model. And they also really can’t go all in like you want unless Rogers ups their payroll. They’re going to be in the 210+ range this year easily. We might want them to go all Mets and spend to 300 but they won’t. Their revenue would likely support it but Rogers won’t. Corporation just won’t do what a private owner would with their money. Best thing that would make the Jays a salary juggernaut would be private ownership.

I don’t think there is really much to complain on how the current Jays have balanced FA, prospects and trades. They’ve done all three over the last 3 years. And they’ve made fairly good choices. Springer and Gaussman have been good. Ryu was necessary to start this all. Berrios I think will bounce back from his last season. They’ve have good prospects come up and there is a good pipeline in place. They’ve done well enough on trades and at least so far have not majorly lost any of them. They’ve managed to sell high on prospects that were passing their expiry date.

For me there are two things to criticize the current team on.
1. Payroll isn’t high enough for their media market. There is nothing wrong with the Jays playbook but it would look better at 280 million than 220 million.
2. More minor but they need to be better at bringing up relievers from the minors that can step in and be effective. We have had to focus a bit too much on picking that up through FA while teams like Tampa and NY and now even Baltimore seem to have an endless supply of 95+ relievers.
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Mike Green - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 04:31 PM EST (#424803) #
Here is the link to the article on the various balls used.  MLB's credibility on this issue is, as Elvis Costello sang, less than zero. 

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Kasi - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 04:58 PM EST (#424804) #
I guess I’d also critique them on swingman type pitchers. Like that number 4-6 starter should be able to be developed from within. People like Thornton or Kay or the like. But too often the Jays have had to burn trade capital for both relievers and swingman types. Which I think thins out their system a bit and makes it harder to get the big trades.
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hypobole - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 05:02 PM EST (#424805) #
Rule 5 just started. Will any Jays get taken?
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uglyone - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 05:04 PM EST (#424806) #

To extend Vladdy or Bo, the #BlueJays still need to find a "sweet spot" of shared risk. Shapiro added:

“The closer they get to free agency, the more that changes their equation of risk. It makes them probably less willing to give up the risk of what it means to be out there."

— Keegan Matheson (@KeeganMatheson) December 6, 2022

I legit hate these guys.
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ayjackson - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 05:12 PM EST (#424807) #
MLB's credibility on the baseballs is, as Jackson Browne sang, running on empty.
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Gerry - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 05:13 PM EST (#424808) #
No Toronto impact in the rule 5 draft. Adrian Hernandez survives.
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lexomatic - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 05:23 PM EST (#424809) #
No impact unless you consider Noda going to As in a very on-brand move to be impacted. But it is at leat a Jays connection
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Gerry - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 05:36 PM EST (#424810) #
Logan Warmoth lost in the minor league portion of the draft.

The Jays selected a 25 year old catcher, Kekai Rios, from the Dodgers. There is nothing in Rios's profile to suggest he is anything other than roster filler. Rios has played nine games above A ball.

Unlike the major league portion, these picks are final and not subject to return.
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Kasi - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 05:46 PM EST (#424811) #
Just wanted us to not lose Martinez which I guess we didn’t. I’d be surprised if Warmoth turned into anything at this point.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 05:46 PM EST (#424812) #
I see at least three interrelated problems with the Jays’ approach:

1. Failure to develop a more productive farm system

2. Some questionable FA signings and extensions (poor allocation of scarce resources)

3. Risk aversion at the wrong time on the win curve
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dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 05:49 PM EST (#424813) #
“ I legit hate these guys”

Noted
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Lylemcr - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:01 PM EST (#424814) #
Bring back AA
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Shoeless Joe - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:01 PM EST (#424815) #
Noah Song was a shrewd pickup by the Phillies and Dombronski.

He would have went much higher in the draft if not for his military commitment and on the military restricted list he won’t even take up a 40 man spot.
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Kasi - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:03 PM EST (#424816) #
I don’t think there is much difference on the two front offices in trades anymore but it does seem rather clear AA has some talent for getting young players to sign team friendly deals. Something that hasn’t been as good here for sure.
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dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:22 PM EST (#424817) #
I’ve never felt AA did anything great. He sold out the franchise after finding out he was getting fired after fielding mediocre teams for years that were never as good as what the current regime has done.

I can now agree with the above post that with time it must be acknowledged that AA has some great talent for resigning his players to team friendly deals especially when compared to the current regime which has no track record in Toronto for that.
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uglyone - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:27 PM EST (#424818) #
"that were never as good as what the current regime has done."

weird that those lesser teams, built after only 5yrs on the job, won more games than any of the current regime's teams and actually won a bunch of playoffs games too.
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Glevin - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:30 PM EST (#424819) #
"I don’t think there is much difference on the two front offices in trades anymore but it does seem rather clear AA has some talent for getting young players to sign team friendly deals. Something that hasn’t been as good here for sure."

I think that's the aspect the GM has the last to do with. I mean, who signs with a team for under what you'd expect because of a GM? With the Braves, they were able to keep some guys very cheap because the system baseball has rewards young players giving up upside for guaranteed money now. The Jays don't have that luxury because Vlad and Bo are both already rich and the children of the super rich. They have no incentive to sell out the future for now becuase they are fine now.
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uglyone - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:31 PM EST (#424820) #
phew. I'm sure it's gonna be poor value anyways.

BREAKING: Outfielder Masataka Yoshida and the Boston Red Sox are in agreement on a contract, sources familiar with the deal tell ESPN.

— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 7, 2022
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greenfrog - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:40 PM EST (#424821) #
AA accomplished that in Toronto as a very young GM with a stingy payroll. Shapiro has a lot more experience and resources at his disposal. Expectations for him should be higher.

Also, Atkins/Shapiro continue to benefit from their inheritance from AA (Guerrero Jr., Jansen).

I think Gerry has it about right. The current FO is about average. Maybe somewhat better than average, if you factor in acquisitions and draft picks like Ray, Gausman, Semien, Manoah, Chapman, Bichette, Moreno, Kirk, Tiedemann. But the fact is that they have yet to make any significant noise on the field, whereas the 2015 Jays came within inches of a WS appearance. And now their veterans are getting expensive and the farm system is thin.
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dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:42 PM EST (#424822) #
Ugly,

Your continued hate for the current front office is tolerable, but your continued posts that are always cherry picked and always framed one sided are not.

If you want to hang your hat on 3 months of baseball after AA was notified he was getting fired then fine. So long at you acknowledge that all of the 4.75 years before and all of the 3 years after that time don't matter to you at all. That;s called rose coloured glasses or selected memory my friend. Might as well also ignore the drafting, the signings of free agents and the money spent on essentially building a new state of the art training center and renovated stadium.

It was years ago when you would come here and rant that you hated these guys because they wouldn't resign David Price or Edwin Encarnacion. Your posts would be so much more tolerable if you could balance out the sentiment and comment on some of the realities opposite of your clearly announced views of the front office.

Yet somehow, when the Jays make a big signing, you seem to disappear with no comment or commentary on the front office.

I apologize for this small rant but I really want to shoot back at you and let you know that I am so tired about hearing why you hate people who work for the Blue Jays.
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uglyone - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:45 PM EST (#424823) #
Red Sox must have found that sweet spot of shared risk.
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dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:47 PM EST (#424824) #
"Also, Atkins/Shapiro continue to benefit from their inheritance from AA (Guerrero Jr., Jansen)."

This is a truism for all GMs.

AA benefitted from inheriting Jose Bautista, Vernon Wells, Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Rios, Ricky Romero and a guy named Leroy Halladay.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:48 PM EST (#424825) #
Something tells me “sweet spot” is about to become the new “payroll parameters” when it comes to sassing the front office.
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dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:50 PM EST (#424826) #
Oh dear. These guys could spend $400 million and make a dumb comment and I'd still have the pleasure of logging into Batters Box to hear a few Beauxites complaining about budget and parameters.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:52 PM EST (#424827) #
Always good to have the site policeman working the beat.
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uglyone - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 06:57 PM EST (#424828) #
"I am so tired about hearing why you hate people who work for the Blue Jays."

seems we're both tired of the bullshit, then.
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scottt - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 07:08 PM EST (#424829) #
It always felt weird to me that Judge broke the HR record just when every team started using the humidor and the balls were supposed to be all "de-juiced".
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John Northey - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 07:39 PM EST (#424830) #
Sheesh - the doom and gloom. The Jays have certain challenges - their 2 big young guns (Bo & Vlad) both come from baseball families which are very wealthy and thus have zero incentive to sign away rights early. They NEVER would sign cheaply. The Jays tried last winter with Bo according to reports and he wasn't that interested. Vlad has said he'd like to do it, but probably as a 'lets get this locked in now' move (at $30 mil per I'm sure). I'd say Manoah is the best bet for a long term deal but why would the Jays do that right now? He is pre-arbitration and the Jays have zero risk, signing him puts them at risk if his arm blows out. The Jays have the cash if needed, so unless he'd sign for way under market value there isn't a point to signing those long term deals that we've seen in Atlanta from AA.

As to the market - if I was able to figure out this was going to be a wild one, I'm sure the Jays did too. They were rumored to be hot and heavy for Nimmo but then he seemed to sit back and wait for Judge when it looked like he might sign quickly.

Masataka Yoshida - OF from Japan signs for $90 mil over 5 years from the Red Sox (net cost $105 mil after posting fee) - the deal is for ages 29-33 for a guy who lifetime is 327/421/539 in the NPB. He never has hit 30 HR, walks a LOT and K's little, once hit 351 but otherwise 296-336. He might be a solid #2 but if he is a corner OF I have trouble seeing him doing a Tony Gwynn (well over 300 Avg) which is what is needed to be worth $20 mil per with his low power and low speed (21 SB over 7 seasons). The Sox also signed Kenley Jansen for $32 mil over 2 years.

Phillies got silly with $72 mil over 4 years for Walker. I suspect at least 2 of those years will be lost money.

Cards signed Willson Contreras for $87.5 mil over 5 years (entering age 31 season, 115 OPS+ lifetime, 122 last year). So they are off of the 'trade for a Jays catcher' list.

José Quintana got 2 years, $26 mil from the Mets - a good max comp for Stripling I'd think. 137 ERA+ last year 110 lifetime, but 32 starts last year (age 33). Stripling was 129/109 for ERA+ 2022/lifetime but in just 134 IP vs 165 for Quintana at age 32 vs 33 for Quintana. A QO would've been overkill for Stripling I think. At this point, unless the Jays have a really good trade coming, signing Stripling for 2/$20-24 would be a good idea imo.
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vw_fan17 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 08:06 PM EST (#424831) #
Might be an overpay for Yoshida, or, with the crazy inflation, it might be that the cost of 1 WAR has also gone up 20-50%.

IIRC, it was ~$8M last season? I wouldn't be surprised if it's $10-11+ after these meetings, and we basically gave away $20-30M of value in the Teoscar trade.

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greenfrog - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 08:22 PM EST (#424832) #
For what it’s worth, one exec at the winter meetings commented that it was relatively easy to pitch to the Jays RH-heavy lineup. I’m not saying the Teo trade was a good one (it may or may not have been), but the front office seems to be trying to create a more effective roster.

We’ll see whether they’re able to do that. There could be a lot of dissatisfaction if they fail to land Nimmo in a prime contention year.

And I don’t think the Jays are going to get the haul they’re hoping for in exchange for Jansen (I assume they’ll refrain from trading the younger, cheaper, and more controllable Kirk and Moreno). St. Louis clearly preferred Contreras to giving up any of their better young talent in a trade.
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Glevin - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 08:26 PM EST (#424833) #
No issue with fans complaining about front offices. Part of your right as a fan. What I do find annoying is complaining after every single move. The Jays are likely to make maybe 2-3 more meaningful moves that means that means there will be dozens of others they aren't involved in. We also know almost nothing about individual players. Maybe that guy is a bad teammate. Maybe this guy doesn't want to play in Toronto. Wait until the off-season is over before you criticize the approach or roster holes. If this is the team they go into the season with or only add like Benitendi or something, they deserve criticism but there is so much off-season still to go.
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John Northey - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 08:51 PM EST (#424834) #
Gave away some value in 2023 for more value in 2024 and beyond. Teoscar's best WAR is 3.9. The guys we got Erik Swanson (1.8 WAR last year) who has 3 years of control (lets do 50% so 0.9 x 3 = 2.7 WAR) and prospect Adam Macko (LH tons of K's, tons of walks so who knows if he'll even make it, but if he does as a starter he could easily be worth 3+ WAR a year). In 4 years this could look like a blowout win for the Jays, worst case is Teoscar has a killer year of 8 WAR and becomes a free agent (as he would've here) and Swanson flops while the Jays pocket the cash. Best case, Teoscar has a 'meh' year (around 2 WAR) and leaves Seattle as a free agent with no compensation while Swanson is a top notch setup man (2-3 WAR) and stays that way for 3 years while Macko turns into a top 10 prospect by finding the strike zone while keeping the K's high. Seems like a good deal imo.

Now, the RF situation. Top free agents left...
  • Carlos Correa: SS bats right with a 129 lifetime OPS+ - unlikely, but if Bo is giving signals he won't sign long term might not be a bad idea. 9 years $300 mil looks to be the asking price for guys like this which I don't like, but then Bo becomes great trade bait or can be moved to 2B.
  • Xander Bogaerts & Dansby Swanson: see Correa but at a lower level (roughly $150-$200 mil for 7 years).
  • Brandon Nimmo: much better fit - 5 years $130+ it seems now for him, especially with Judge off the table he now is the best OF on the market. LH, CF, high OBP, I'd say a perfect fit. His injury issues are a concern - could be a mix/match with Springer as to who is healthy but ideally get both on the field for October and 'woohoo'
  • Andrew Benintendi: might be the next best fit on the market - LH LF who played CF a bit up to 2019. 351 lifetime OBP, 373 last year - would be nice before Bo & Vlad hit. But being a LF when we need a CF or RF makes him an awkward fit.
Pitchers...
  • Carlos Rodon: 5 years $140 was predicted, but probably more now. I wouldn't with his injury issues, but with a clean bill of health and if the pitching coaches feel his delivery won't cause more troubles ...
  • Kodai Senga: 5 years $75 was predicted. He makes me nervous - killer arm but low K's, not a good sign. Can't help but wonder if his fastball is straighter than needed for the majors. I'd take him, but this is a case of how critical good scouting is.
  • Chris Bassitt: 3 years $60 mil prediction. He is very tempting - had TJ in '17 but 113-138 with a 183 ERA+ (2020) since each year. Been fairly healthy too. Entering his age 34 season I suspect years will be the big sticking point with him. Very tempting.
  • Noah Syndergaard: 3 years $36 mil sounds low, but that is predicted. His K/9 cratered to 6.3 last year so I'd be a bit nervous here. But the price might be low enough to be worth the risk. Hard to say.
  • Nathan Eovaldi: 2 years $34 mil - very tempting - has had injury issues, but is a high risk/high return guy. Could give no value, or could be a 4+ WAR guy.
  • Ross Stripling: we all know this guy. Would be nice to have return, but who knows what will happen?
So outside of going nuts on one of the shortstops or Nimmo there isn't much left that I could see the Jays going for - maaaaybe Rodon but he seems to much risk for the guys running the Jays. I'm thinking Bassitt is most tempting of the pitchers, Nimmo by a mile with the hitters. Then if you get one use the catchers to try to trade for help in the other position. Check with me in a week and I might change my mind again on some of these. FYI: as a reminder Cody Bellinger did sign with the Cubs for $17.5 mil so he is off the table - wasn't a fan of that match up for a contending team. Great for the Cubs though.
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bpoz - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 08:53 PM EST (#424835) #
My opinion is that winning 90+ games without making the playoffs is bad luck. Winning less than 90 wins and making the playoffs is good luck. Then the bad team gets lucky and wins the WS.
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Petey Baseball - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 09:01 PM EST (#424836) #
Shapiro and Rogers gave AA the option to stay, quite a generous offer Alex said on Gibby's podcast recently. He turned it down. The idea that AA was "fired" or was on his way out was flipped by the finish to '15 and how close they were to a championship. I don't buy for a second that AA broke the team just for one year and that his regime would not have been able to build it back up. We'll never know for sure, but I think he had come into his own as a GM and we'd probably be in a better spot than we are now.

This isn't to say Atkins and Shapiro haven't done a good job. There is a scenario where the next two or three years we see a playoff run similar to '15, but to modify what Gerry said, this team and this market needs a genuine gunslinger in charge who is willing to take big risks to beat the juggernauts. Without a lot of luck the Jays just aren't getting to the promised land by out-risk aversing the quality of competition they're facing.



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Glevin - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 09:11 PM EST (#424837) #
"This isn't to say Atkins and Shapiro haven't done a good job. There is a scenario where the next two or three years we see a playoff run similar to '15, but to modify what Gerry said, this team and this market needs a genuine gunslinger in charge who is willing to take big risks to beat the juggernauts. Without a lot of luck the Jays just aren't getting to the promised land by out-risk aversing the quality of competition they're facing."

I disagree. The new playoff format means the goal is to make the playoffs every year and then anything can happen. It's better to be a 90 win team every year than to win 100 and then 70 sort of thing. The goal is sustained getting to the playoffs.
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scottt - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 09:16 PM EST (#424838) #
They're making the playoffs.
They are 0-4 in September so far, but that's not because they have no good players.

I'm quite willing to have a look at the next wave of prospects.
Just give me a left bat and a 4th starter.

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Kasi - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 09:22 PM EST (#424839) #
Let’s not forget AA inherited a loaded team in Atlanta as well. He’s not had to do any crazy trades there likely because it’s not necessary. And probably some of what he did in LA rubbed off on him. No need to do those sorts of moves. But yes they got lucky winning the WS coming from a crap division. Didn’t we go 6-0 against them that year? Sure the Mets and Phillies are spending big now but they’re not as good or rich orgs as NYY and Boston. They also don’t have a Tampa in that division. Also have a perennial loser in Miami which all adds up to making heh is job easier than it was in Toronto. But yeah I wish we could buy some term for some of our young talent.
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John Northey - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 09:22 PM EST (#424840) #
Take the big risks - like signing a pitching with injury issues but high upside to a 4 year deal? Like signing an injury prone CF with WS experience to a long term deal? Like trading 2 top prospects for a solid SP. All things Atkins has done the past few years. All very risky, all with different degrees of success. He is willing to take risks, to swing hard and sometimes miss. For 'playing it safe' look to the nightmarish Ash, JPR periods - neither did much and when they did it tended to flop.
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scottt - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 09:32 PM EST (#424841) #
I don't really see Bellinger as a great fit for the Cubs.
He's all defense and they have a small outfield.

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Petey Baseball - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 09:47 PM EST (#424842) #
The argument isn't that the Springer, Ryu, Gausman signings and the Berrios trade are bad. It's that it's not enough to win a World Series.




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dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 09:47 PM EST (#424843) #
AA can hear us or reads this board. He just made a trade for a reliever the Jays should have targeted.
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soupman - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 09:50 PM EST (#424844) #
better in what sense?

100 win teams are more likely to win championships than 89 win teams that squeak in.
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uglyone - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:01 PM EST (#424845) #
I'm sure they will make one good add (replacing teoscar's value) and one or two iffy adds, leaving us as a bubble playoffs team again, hoping for more things to go right this year than last.
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soupman - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:02 PM EST (#424846) #
Shapiro/Atkins are the definition of middle managers. they work on established best practices. we're likely never going to see them do things like game the IFA market, or trade high-upside prospects at peak value. They'll trade aging vets for lottery tickets during a rebuild, sure - but I just can't think of a single time they zig'd when everyone else zag'd. i get that some people see these attributes as marks of their quality. i see them, at least historically, as disqualifying in the ALEast. with that said, the new playoff format and more balanced schedule does appear to make their strategy less wishful than it has been the previous 22 times Shapiro has led a FO.
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scottt - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:06 PM EST (#424847) #
That's not really an argument. I mean, are Judge, Cole and Stanton enough to win a World Series?
That's about 1 billion in contract right there.

The pen wasn't good enough. It should be better this year.
They won't eat the Kikuchi contract, so he's probably getting another shot at starting.
They still have Pearson, Merryweather and Zulueta as possibilities.
Would be nice to have a mid rotation guy in there.

Shouldn't be that hard to find a DH/LF platoon bat in the Matt Stairs/Adam Lind type.

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dalimon5 - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:14 PM EST (#424848) #
So when they signed Springer were they zigging or zagging?

Signing Semien at 18 mil for one year after a down year were they following protocol?

Trading 2 top prospects for Berrios was risk averse? Signing that pitcher to a long term contract? That’s literally a perfect example of selling high on not one but two prospects.

Trading for Robbie Ray who was just an okay pitcher and getting a Cy Young pitcher out of it. Yup…must have been them following par for the course strategies. I could go on but it’s clear some just have a target for two Americans being tasked with replacing a Canadian GM who was a fan favourite. They’ve spent more money, signed better free agents, made strong trades and have a better WL record and in less time. Hate these guys.
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jerjapan - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:14 PM EST (#424849) #
Hmm. Generally agreed with the managerial metaphor for the FO. But they traded Martin quick, hoglund.

To me, it seems like our FO has windows of contention in mind. They will spend big only when they think the window is truly open.

After a few years of FA value plateauing a bit, it’s no surprise the $ is flowing again. If there’s been an off-season to wait out the FA market in the past few years, it sure feels like this one
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greenfrog - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:16 PM EST (#424850) #
It’s harder to make trades when your farm system isn’t very well regarded. That was reportedly the sense among other teams at the trade deadline last summer — they just weren’t that enamoured with the Blue Jays prospects on offer (other than the near-untouchable Moreno and Tiedemann).
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Kasi - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:18 PM EST (#424851) #
Does zigging when zagging win World Series? I’d have to see the studies on going all in and how it works in baseball because recent champs have shown that building through the draft and especially through international free agency is how you win. Especially added with a bit of luck. Do the dodgers do super exciting things? Not really they just do everything well and have the most money. Even when they traded for someone like Betts or Turner they didn’t have to give their best prospects since they were so stacked.

Now sure Tampa does some crazy stuff and it seems to work but that’s born of their horrible market. I’ve yet to see the crazy Tampa strat go anywhere else. Also the two most unique teams of the last 20 years in the As and Tampa last I checked had zero World Series titles between them. To me the Jays success is all on how they draft, how they do IFA and how they develop players. I think they’re doing IFA quite well but have room for improvement in the other. Trading more prospects for another aging vet just to prove they’re all in seems somewhat foolish.
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Kasi - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:24 PM EST (#424852) #
And yeah I’d have to echo Dalimon here. There have been plenty of big FA signings and big trades the last 3 years. Also some very good selective targeting of high upside comeback players. What people seem to be saying without saying it is that they just don’t like the results. If only signing Semien and trading for Ray has worked as well as Atlanta sneaking into the playoffs. Well it didn’t but it wasn’t for lack of trying or lack of creativity in managing the ballclub.
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greenfrog - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:30 PM EST (#424853) #
Sometimes it’s hard to know when to be ultra-aggressive versus waiting. Had the Jays given Verlander 2/60 last offseason (instead of the 2/50, with opt-out after year 1, the Astros gave him), it might have seemed excessive at the time. A year later, $30m for a year of late-vintage Verlander looks like chump change.

If you think the player will be a real difference-maker for your club, sometimes you have to go well out of your comfort zone to get him. The Jays probably did this with Gausman to some extent and he was terrific for them last year.
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John Northey - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:35 PM EST (#424854) #
My favorite part of building the team is full use of whatever others aren't using - AA gamed the draft by trading for a free agent hours before he declared just to offer arbitration and get that draft pick. Atkins has tried to take advantage of the IFA market via signing guys in September vs July - getting the top post-frenzy guys and finding major gems in Moreno and Kirk for example.

I'd like to see him take more advantage of it - especially if it goes to a draft with trades in the near future (as owners are trying to do). IFA are less likely to complain about coming to a Canadian team than Americans are, thus more likely to sign long term later on (at least in theory - they can't go play for their home town team).
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jerjapan - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:39 PM EST (#424855) #
It’s true though. These guys are never going to be risk it all types, and I don’t think you can be under corporate ownership in MLB, tbh.

Especially in terms of dollars. Trading teo was about acquiring a value contract as much as it was about freeing up money, roster balance, etc.

The jays decisions make more sense, and look better, IMO, when you think of them as a cap-oriented team, in which contract value is much more significant.

I think berrios was the big go for it move we had. I was into it at the time, into the extension, but if you can only afford one big move, or one failed big move, berrios underperforming like that moves the window.

I expect us to continue to ‘flex’ our big market muscle with moves like that though … aggressive sell-high trade with extension $ value in mind.

My prediction at this point of the off-season -genuine value moves to come, no needle movers, no extensions.

Which is gonna look like a loss for a lot of fans.

and bo and vladdy either prove that they are the core, long term, or not. I can picture shapirokins trading one of those guys down the road as easily as I see them extending both this off-season

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greenfrog - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 10:53 PM EST (#424856) #
I’m not sure what to think about Bo and Vladdy beyond their arb years. Will Bo be a second baseman by the time he’s in his late twenties? Is his unorthodox swing going to continue to be effective as he gets older? Can Vladdy regain some of the plate discipline he had in 2021, or has he become a bit of a hacker? Are wrist and other injuries going to plague him, leading to a Prince Fielder-like shortened career?

The harsh truth is, it may already be too late to sign them to extensions that make sense for the team. After the recent inflation in MLB, they’re soon going to be hunting for $300m+ contracts, if they aren’t already.
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John Northey - Wednesday, December 07 2022 @ 11:07 PM EST (#424857) #
Right now 'going for it' seems like a very bad idea unless you are a team that NEEDS to reach the playoffs. There are just so many variables once in that you can't predict who will go all the way or how to do so. The Dodgers should've been the ultimate given their deep rotation (3 guys over 180 ERA+, the other 3 were 163-136-105 with Mitch White the one they dumped at 114), deep pen (4 guys with sub 2.25 ERA's, 30+ IP), deep lineup. But they lost in 4 in the NLDS to a team with no starter with a 130+ ERA+, who traded away their closer mid-season and more than 20 fewer regular season wins.

Baseball is a funny game, even the worst team can beat the best one. Look at the 1899 Spiders, worst in baseball history, but they won 2 out of 3 vs a team that won 95 that year. Weird things happen. In 2015 it made sense to put all the eggs into one basket due to the aging of the team thus a short window, and the decades of no playoffs. For example the Pirates have missed the playoffs 7 years in a row after a 3 year window, and before that missed them from 1993-2012. Their only series win was a one game WC playoff in 2013 since winning it all in 1979. Yep, it has been that long since they made it to the World Series, and haven't made it to the NLCS since 1992 when Barry Bonds was in LF for them and their hotshot rookie was Tim Wakefield (won both his playoff games with complete games that year, a shame they didn't line him up for 3 starts).
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soupman - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 12:12 AM EST (#424858) #
winning the division 5 years in a row is hardly "sneaking in".
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soupman - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 12:18 AM EST (#424859) #
i'd say martin was an aging vet.

they traded martin last year, and if we get the same berrios again for the rest of the deal, and martin continues to develop (not to mention SWR), that's going to look like one of the all time worst trades in franchise history pretty soon.
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soupman - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 12:23 AM EST (#424860) #
signing players and trading players...do you honestly consider these innovative tactics? or put another way: in what ways do Atkins/Shapiro ensure that they are doing a better job than the red sox or yankees in performing these? i can tell you how houston overhauled its FO about 10 years ago and remodelled its franchise. there's a book by 'he who shall not be named' about how the Rays consistently find new ways to win in this division. AA does nothing but win division (and world) titles these days. in my view, signing and trading players is just part of the job - and if you want those to be hallmarks of a front office - they need to do it demonstrably and consistently better than those who have more money to patch mistakes, and more resources to ensure they don't make mistakes in the first place. again: i'm not sure how this FO fits those criteria, or why so many are convinced they are especially talented given their middling track record that is moving deeper into its third decade.
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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 12:47 AM EST (#424861) #
Don’t know what soup you’re eating but you’re all over the map. Now the GM has a track record of middling performance for 30 years? You contradict yourself. You say a team must trade and sign players better than the other teams who have more money. Then you reference AA as a good example because he wins championships … what signings and trades did he make that allowed him to make better trades and signings than the Dodgers, Astros and other teams that you say the Toronto GM must do better than? Was it letting Freddie Freeman walk?

The Jays did nothing at the winter meetings! Quick let’s all polish off the keyboard and log in to the internet and point out why the GM is not very good.
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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 12:50 AM EST (#424862) #
By the way, the rumour out there now is that the FO tried to extend Bo last year and he wasn’t interested. Joe Siddal was on podcast today discussing the core of the team and the issues with resigning them.
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 01:19 AM EST (#424863) #
Martin might continue to develop sure but he’s got a whole to go before he’s even half decent. .241 avg and 2 home runs aren’t going to go far. Sure fall league good but we’ve seen with the Jays plenty of players do well there. Now maybe Berrios isn’t great or anything but I don’t think either Martin or SWR will ever be stars. Anyway for all their innovation Tampa has won squat themselves. I do agree the jays need to be better in drafting and development but I think if you did a ranking from 1-30 MLB wide on who did the most big/exciting moves the last 3 years Jays would easily be top ten likely top five. Ryu, Springer, Gausman, Semien, Berrios, Chapman on the FA and trade front. And emergence of Bo, Manoah and Kirk from players they’ve signed recently.
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jerjapan - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 01:24 AM EST (#424864) #
Austin Martin was an aging vet?

This off-season is going good by my books. No dumb money during the first dumb money off-season in a while.

I do think shapirokins (which, I like that. They do deserve a collective noun that doesn’t offend anyone. Heck if any pair deserves an inoffensive nickname…)

But I do think they are still doing what they said they were gonna do
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 01:45 AM EST (#424865) #
I think he meant Russel Martin there. Who they probably held on to too long but I still don’t think he was worth much by the time they were trying to dump him.
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Glevin - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 07:00 AM EST (#424866) #
I will also say that other teams also aren't that risky. When Atlanta won the. WS, they absolutely didn't go all in. They had a great system they didn't really trade from and instead traded for a bunch of pretty mediocre veterans who just played amazing. Getting Soler, Pederson, Duvall, and Rosario is hardly going all in. Braves had amazing system and could have made big traces but hedged their bets and got lucky. That's how you generally win. Similarly, last year Astros won with big holes. They made a few moves to upgrade team at deadline but Gurriel and Maldenado, and Diaz playing regularly could all have had much bigger upgrades.the idea of "being bold and going for it" is usually retroactively applied to teams that win.
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bpoz - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 08:56 AM EST (#424867) #
This off season we are scrambling for some pitching and OF help.

The pitcher type we want are guys that can give us decent length. Kikuchi is going to get his chance to start and then go 5-7 innings. White will most likely have to earn his opportunity to start and his success will determine 2IP or 7IP. Then there are Kay, Hatch & Thornton trying to earn any longish or short role on the pitching staff.

Do we have enough 1-2 inning guys? Lets count. Romano, Y Garcia, Cimber, Maza, Bass, Richards and Swanson. These are our good/reliable arms. I may have missed some. Merryweather is a 1 inning guy that has not done well. Pop, Pearson, Zulueta, Gage are all on the 40 man.

Hopefully our good/reliable bullpen arms perform well. Bass has only 1 year of control left. I don't know about the others but some would only have 2 more years of control. So the pen will have to be partly refilled after 2023-25. I think this may be normal for every team. Kenley Jansen was expensive for Boston as he should be.

In the OF Merrifield is capable of 500 ABs as is Gurriel. Some ABs in the IF/PH. Springer has 513 ABs last year with some as DH. I will just wait and see about O Lopez and N Lukes in 2023.

I have heard Shapiro say "just make the playoffs". I have not heard him say "we want to win a WS". The NYM owner has said that and they have added players to help achieve that. I would have to say the acquisition of Ryu, Springer, Berrios, Ray, Semien, Matz and Kikuchi were for "just make the playoffs". I remember Roark. The trade deadline deals in 2020-22 were to make the playoffs goal.

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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 10:20 AM EST (#424868) #
Pretty sure I’ve heard Shapiro say something alone the lines of “ultimate goal is to win the World Series” or “win a championship”.
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92-93 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 10:38 AM EST (#424869) #
The current payroll projects at around 165MM, yet a lot of people seem convinced the Jays will be spending near the 210MM range. If that's true, they are running out of worthwhile places to shop. They need to stay far away from the Roark/Kikcuhi strip malls, and stick to the high-end Springer/Gausman boutiques.
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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 10:41 AM EST (#424870) #
I can't fathom the prices for these free agents. This is the offseason that has changed my understanding of baseball. I've learned two things:

1) The players were right and MLB owners are swimming in cash and I don't think I'll ever take the owners seriously again in the next labour strike.

2) Business investments will trump baseball decisions

The following deals have particularly altered my perception of everything:

Jacob deGrom 5 years / $185,000,000
Trea Turner 11 years / $300,000,000
Xander Bogaerts 11 years / $280,000,000
Taijuan Walker 4 years / $72,000,000

Bob McCown was speaking about something Paul Beeston told him. With his guest they were discussing the fact that the Blue Jays do not get dollar for dollar what they should be getting for broadcast rights. Bob said that Paul said that what Rogers Media pays the Blue Jays for broadcasting rights is determined subjectively at the end of every season depending on which entity needs more help.

* Jays get underpaid by Rogers for broadcast rights
* Jays pay in CAD against the USD
* Rogers decides at the end of the season what it wants to pay the Blue Jays according to Paul Beeston, and that it is determined by "who needs the money more."

I still staunchly defend this FO and think ownership has has invested heavily.

In general I feel a sense of severe blues when it comes to this teams outlook because Vlad, Bo and Manoah will be so much more difficult to sign now after this massive contract sweepstakes that just took place. It almost feels like we will be operating as a small market team just with a much higher payroll. instead of a 75 million dollar payroll like the bottom feeders, the Jays will have a $200,000,000 payroll and will still be shipping out top players for prospects in 2 years because they won't spend the $1,000,000,000 it will take to resign Bo, Vlad and Manoah
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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 10:44 AM EST (#424871) #
Last note... indeed the Teoscar trade may have been the turning point for this front office turning back into "small market mentality."

Please sign Rodon and put my fears to rest...
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 10:56 AM EST (#424872) #
92-93 when you take into account expected arbitration rulings the Jays salary for this year currently stands at I think just over 200 million. I’m not 100% sure if that was updated to reflect the Teo trade but if not then that makes it 190ish. Regardless it’s well above 165.
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lexomatic - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 11:09 AM EST (#424873) #
I wonder what happens in Boston now. Looks like Tatis Jr is now in the OF and the worst defender of the 3 SS they have will be playing SS.
Oh well. Next year in SD will be interesting.
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85bluejay - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 11:15 AM EST (#424874) #
According to spotrac.com (I don't know how accurate this site is), the competitive Tax Threshold is 233M and the Jays are estimated at about 200M for that tax calculation - I don't think the Jays are going into tax territory and will want some cushion for potential in-season additions, so the Jays don't have much to spend and I think will be spending in the strip malls area.
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lexomatic - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 11:29 AM EST (#424875) #
<br>I can't quote the part I want about shipping out top players even with a high payroll be abuse this site isn't mobile friendly, but... a team should always be looking to move players they won't be able to re-sign. Thr calculus is different with a top prospect replacement or if you can get someone as a placeholder and not lose too much and in a win cycle. But as long as you're getting more than you would by a QO pick then it shouldn't be a big deal. But yeah, feels like this team had its window closed for it.
And not mentioning the luxury tax cap and re-signing does complicate things.
Anyway people are going to have to realize too many big salaries will make it very difficult to keep a good team together. It's bad for baseball fans.
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bpoz - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 11:34 AM EST (#424876) #
Thanks Kasi. I look forward to seeing how Shapiro will win a WS/championship.

We have had Stieb/Halladay, Guzman/Carpenter/Hentgen, Key/Wells and lastly Stroman/Manoah. Pearson/Zulueta/Tiedemann and Robberse/Barriera. So I expect 1 and hopefully 2 Ace/#1/#2 to join Manoah. Gausman/Berrios here for 4 more seasons. So potential great rotation.

Atkins has built the pen. Keeping it strong should not be that hard.

When they traded for Chapman how much O did they expect? He sure delivered on the D. If they were trading for D then that is the only exceptional D trade they have ever made. Zimmer/JBJ does not count for me. But I am ok if others want to count them as exceptional acquisitions.

Semien/Ray/Matz had career years with the Jays. Stripling had a career year in 2022 since all his categories improved to his best career level. These were all good luck. Roark/Kikuchi were bad luck. The future will also have good and bad luck.

I posted positively about the above categories so without any explanation then why not elite O from time to time.

Prospects Moreno, Orelvis and Barger all have potential for elite O. Dasan Brown has potential for elite D. He was on a hot hitting streak to end 2022 and he is a V fast runner.

I now accept Shapiro winning a WS/championship.


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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 11:46 AM EST (#424877) #
Well who knows if they’ll win. Like we know it’s a crapshoot with the current format once you get into the playoffs. Generally the team with the best record does not win the title or correlate to win it as much as top seeds in the other 3 North American sports leagues. I think the nature of baseball makes it more random over short sample sizes like 3/5/7 game series.

I think just saying those trades were good luck is selling the FO a bit short. They got Liriano and then Teoscar. They got Ray and Matz and Stripling. Then Semien and Chapman on the infield. They seem to have a pretty good eye on buying low on talent and then bringing it to life. I don’t think it’s just luck considering how often they’ve done it so far.

The problem I think they have is either their drafting or development. That is where to me they’re lagging behind their peers. They’ve had some big hits in Bo, Manoah and Kirk but they’ve had a real struggle getting second tier players or filling out their bullpen.
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SK in NJ - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 12:00 PM EST (#424878) #
The only issue I have with the FO is the lack of extensions to young players, which is not entirely within their control as it takes two to tango, but still a potential hurdle to overcome. Building a "sustainable winner" has to involve at least a few team friendly extensions to core players, and so far we haven't seen anything. Maybe not due to lack of trying, but certainly lack of results, and the farm system is no where close to being like the Astros where internal replacements can step in. They essentially have three years to win a World Series while simultaneously building the farm system back up to where they have players who can step in and take over if/when they lose Bichette and Vlad to free agency. The only positive to possibly letting Bo and Vlad go is that the team would have to replace a bad defensive SS and a 1B. The Astros had to replace a star CF and SS (Springer/Correa) who were also plus defensive players, which was a much more difficult thing to do.

Aside from that, I don't see the same risk aversion that others see. They have shopped in the expensive aisle in free agency (Ryu, Springer, Semien, Gausman), and gave out a massive extension to Berrios after trading two top prospects for him. Saying they don't spend or are too risk averse is not a valid criticism at this point. I still expect them to be in on Nimmo as well.
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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 12:36 PM EST (#424879) #
Great points everyone. For the record I hope they pass on Nimmo. Would rather they trade another player like Kikuchi with a prospect. Free up that $10 million and the $20 million its gonna cost yearly to pay Nimmo and instead pay Rodon $30/year for 5 years. Then sign Kiermaijer and Brantley.

Wait until you get a good offer for one of your catchers later in the off season.

Resign Manoah then whichever of Vlad or Bo are willing (sounds like Vlad is the only interested one).



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soupman - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 12:39 PM EST (#424880) #
you really haven't (imo) explained why you have confidence that the next 8 will be different than the past 22. I didn't say a team "needs" to sign and trade players better - I said, that if the hallmark of their superiority is signing and trading players (your assertion about this FO), then you should show how they (this particular FO) does that better than their competition. again, you have 22 years of evidence to draw on, so it should be quite easy - if that is in fact something Shapiro is innately talented at. what i have asserted in this thread is merely that Shapiro is a competent middle manager that doesn't do anything poorly, but also doesn't do anything exceptionally well. i'm open to changing my mind, but you seem to want to turn this into some kind of antagonistic discussion which i'm not really interested in.
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soupman - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 12:52 PM EST (#424881) #
if neither vlad nor bo wants to sign long term, then perhaps vlad and/or bo need to go...while they have value.

McGriff is going in the hall of fame. he could be wearing a jays cap, but he won't be. we all know why: Gillick risked his neck trading him for a kid that was (to that point) a league average hitter, and a big downgrade on the slugger he got back.

i can't see this FO ever doing anything close to that move today or ever...because they never have despite having many many chances over the 22 years.
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 01:28 PM EST (#424882) #
What is this 22 year FO you’re talking about? That covers Shapiro/Atkins, Beaston/AA, Ricardi and Ash. All four have different styles. I don’t think the current pair is the most risky FO out there today but I think they’re closer to the top than you think. Certainly much closer to AA than to Ricardi and Ash. The FA signings and trades they’ve done have been very impactful to the current team.

I do agree that trading one of Vlad or Bo might be the right thing. If they leave both to their last year they’re going to not get that much a return. And I don’t think I’d feel comfortable giving either 300 million like other players are getting.
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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 01:47 PM EST (#424883) #
Soupman,

You are combining three or four arguments into one while asking me to prove you otherwise and then concluding you are not interested in being antagonized. I'll do my best:

1) RE: Shapiro has 22 years of performance to draw upon to prove he is doing nothing exceptional. Your quote "what i have asserted in this thread is merely that Shapiro is a competent middle manager that doesn't do anything poorly, but also doesn't do anything exceptionally well. i'm open to changing my mind"

Several posts have shown that he has done the following while with the Blue Jays which is entirely opposite from his time in Cleveland and why you should stop combining "22 years" of data as if its consistent to proving this FO as middling:

Traded prospects and resigned high caliber talent
*FO made risky trades of top prospects (Martin and SWR for Berrios)
*FO made long term expensive commitment to near elite pitching at the time (Berrios)
--> Less than 10 other organizations have done this type of trade and extension in the last few years.

Targeted high upside players underperforming and turned them into assets
Robbie Ray
Marcus Semien
--> clearly above average and better than most organizations

Traded for Ross Stripling, Teoscar Hernandez and Matt Chapman for excellent results with minimal cost
--> above average

Drafted Bo Bichette, Alejandro Kirk, Alek Manoah and Gabriel Moreno
--> better track record than previous GM here in shorter period

High $$$ signings of Springer, Ryu and Gausman
---> not many teams doing that when they did


2) "I said, that if the hallmark of their superiority is signing and trading players (your assertion about this FO), then you should show how they (this particular FO) does that better than their competition"

They've clearly traded better than the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles and Rays. They've outspent all of them in free agency except the Yankees.

3) I'm going to repost your initial post. Let me turn this around on you and ask you to explain yourself better. Here is your quote:

"signing players and trading players...do you honestly consider these innovative tactics? or put another way: in what ways do Atkins/Shapiro ensure that they are doing a better job than the red sox or yankees in performing these? i can tell you how houston overhauled its FO about 10 years ago and remodelled its franchise. there's a book by 'he who shall not be named' about how the Rays consistently find new ways to win in this division. AA does nothing but win division (and world) titles these days. in my view, signing and trading players is just part of the job - and if you want those to be hallmarks of a front office - they need to do it demonstrably and consistently better than those who have more money to patch mistakes, and more resources to ensure they don't make mistakes in the first place. again: i'm not sure how this FO fits those criteria, or why so many are convinced they are especially talented given their middling track record that is moving deeper into its third decade."

--> Do the Jays really need to do a better job signing and trading players than the Red Sox and Yankees specifically? Prove how you think they haven't signed and traded better than them.

--> Please elaborate on how Houston overhauled its FO 10 years ago and remodelled itself and how the FO here could have done the same thing. How many 1st round picks did they have again? Do elaborate...

--> Nobody ever said this FO is especially talented, just pointing out to posters calling them mediocre, middling or useless


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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 01:50 PM EST (#424884) #
I think he's referring to Shapiro's total time as a GM in Cleveland and Toronto.

Also...

"i can't see this FO ever doing anything close to that move today or ever...because they never have despite having many many chances over the 22 years."

Has any front office done this Soupman? Maybe one or two since Gillick. The Soto trade and the Mookie Betts trade and so far the results speak for themselves. The trading team lost the Mookie Betts deal and we will see with the Nationals.
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 01:54 PM EST (#424885) #
I guess maybe the 22 year FO is just describing Shapiros whole career. I didn’t quite understand that but I think he’s definitely done things here in Toronto that he didn’t or couldn’t do in Cleveland. I think they’ve had enough successes that accelerated the rebuild that you can’t just chalk it up as good luck. Look at Texas who also made the playoffs in 2016 but are still sucking to this day and don’t even have a good farm system for it.
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92-93 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 02:07 PM EST (#424886) #
I have no idea when this flip happened to start quoting the payroll in luxury tax terms but it's quite odd coming from a fanbase of a team that has never come close to exceeding it.

The total salaries of what one would reasonably project as the 26-man roster today, including MLBTR's arb projections (which I think are too high) = 172.2MM. They should easily be able to fit in Rodon + Brantley, for instance.

Springer 22.5
Guerrero 14.8
Chapman 12
Merrifield 6.75
Bichette 6.1
Gurriel 5.4
Jansen 3.7
Biggio 3.25
Kirk 0.7

Espinal 2.1
Moreno 0.7
Lukes 0.7
Lopez 0.7

Gausman 21
Berrios 15
Kikuchi 10
Manoah 0.7
White 0.7

Garcia 5
Romano 4.4
Cimber 3.2
Bass 3
Mayza 1.9
Richards 1.5
Swanson 1.4
Pop 0.7

Ryu 20
Grichuk 4.33

I had forgotten Grichuk in my original calculation.
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jerjapan - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 02:18 PM EST (#424887) #
McGriff / Fernandez for Alomar / Carter was rare even for the time, if i recall correctly. 

The thing is, this approach of prioritizing value deals by our FO means that there will be busts.  Kikuchi looked lost last year.  The Roark Deal was bad before the ink even dried, as many round here noted at the time.  The Bradley Zimmer Experience, (which would be a great name for a terrible band).  Kendrys Morales.
I think that replacing EE with ... uhhh ... was part of the reason Shapiro got the 'Darth Vader' rep.  Definitely the wrong metaphor, in retrospect.  More smiling Moff Tarkin than DV.
I'm sure he's a lovely guy.  but he's not an inspiring guy.  nor is his mini-me RA.  neither are their actions. 

I do expect an opportunistic pounce or two to come. 

Dalimon- great point about the owner's swimming in cash.  I tend to avoid reading about labour disputes since I'm involved in one of my own, but you nailed it.  that was all BS from the owners.  I mean, not Andre Dawson to Chicago level BS, but this reaffirms how fake that bunch are. 


 


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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 02:35 PM EST (#424889) #
I can't take a post seriously when you're saying that this FO is prioritizing value deals. Recency bias does not support that view.

Ryu - paid over market
Springer - paid over market
Berrios - paid market
Gausman - paid market
Semien - paid market or higher

Here are some things that may be why people keep repeating that this FO is focused on value only.

Teoscar - traded him for low cost and controlled players
Winter Meetings - didn't sign or trade for anybody

Tapia, Bradley Zimmer...these are routine moves for edge players that all organizations do. You can't use these 23/24/25th roster spot players as evidence that this FO prioritizes value over anything else.
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 03:19 PM EST (#424890) #
Yeah have to agree this is recency bias. Going over last 3 years in total Jays are one of the highest spending teams in bringing in FA contracts. They did go from like a 60 million payroll to near 200 now. Now would I rather have Castillo over Berrios? Sure but I think Berrios will rebound. I assume they’ll get one 20+ million dollar FA and a budget pitcher (maybe just resign Stripling) and go into next season with that.
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Lylemcr - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 03:27 PM EST (#424891) #
In all fairness to Atkins, there were a lot of things that went wrong last year and the team made the playoffs. I am concerned of these trends
- Berrios\Kikuchi taking a step back really hurt. Luckily, Stripling and Manoah stepped up or the Jays might have missed the playoffs. I think this trend can change, so it is hopeful.
- The core of the lineup took a step back. This trend can change as well. A LHB is all that is needed.
- The bullpen was better in 2023, but showed it warts in the post-season. I think they did a little to address this, but 1 or 2 arms more would be nice.
- The minor leagues need more assets so holes can be filled via trade. I think this is the part I am most concerned about. The assets are ok, but I can't see a big trade happening anytime soon to pry that #3 started we need.

I don't see the free agent anymore that moves them with the Astros (or Mariners). It might be best to stand pat and see some more growth within. The last thing I want to see is to overspend on a free agent that restricts the team in the future.
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Nigel - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 03:27 PM EST (#424892) #
I'm with you 92-93 - I have no idea where this idea came from that the current team, without any additions, would be a $200m+ team. It isn't close to that. Having said that, I think when the dust settles the team's payroll will fall somewhere in the 8-15 range of MLB payroll's because that's where it has tended to fall since we stopped partying like it's 1999. What I do think is a big issue is the exchange rate. I have always believed that the internal budget is set in CDN and that in periods where the CDN $ is strong the team's payroll moves up the MLB list and when its weak its moves down. The CDN $ is pretty weak right now and projected to be so for the coming year. I'm not expecting a big splash (more a middle range splash like the offer to Heaney). The front office's comments about payroll and spending are ludicrous. Running this like a (upper) mid market team is the owner's right, to which I take no exception (I can opt out of my fandom if I don't like it), but I sure wish they'd stop talking garbage.
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 03:52 PM EST (#424893) #
A good point that I read elsewhere was that of the players who signed this week who would I have been happy with the Jays signing? As purely just adding the only two that stood out are Verlander and Quintana. I don’t think anyone else who was signed was someone I’m sad they missed on. Now if they were going something big like trade Bo than the only big contract was the Turner one. However it’s clear he wanted to go back close to family and we would not fit there so we’d be out. I don’t want any part of Boegarts or deGrom at those prices.
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greenfrog - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 04:00 PM EST (#424894) #
The team might have "paid over market" for players like Gausman and Springer, which is great, but they're still overpaying within the middle category (or upper middle if you prefer) of FAs in those instances. The front office has yet to sign a truly high-end FA like Cole, Harper, Seager, Turner or Verlander.

Nimmo is in a similar category to Springer, as he's probably going to get around $125-150m (or more). He fits the Jays' current needs pretty well but he may prefer to play in the US (and on natural grass).
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Shoeless Joe - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 04:51 PM EST (#424896) #
https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/big-catch-cardinals-record-offer-lures-former-cub-willson-contreras-to-new-home/article_c348d59f-a37a-511f-9ea9-25654a25cc4e.html

The Jays wanted Nootbar or Ryan Hesley in a Cardinals trade. Oakland wanted similar returns for Sean Murphy.

The Brewers are now interested in catching and I really like prospect Sal Frelick. However, it would take a little bit mroe than just him.
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John Northey - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 05:03 PM EST (#424897) #
Gausman middle market? Springer? Please tell me you are joking. Springer was a top 10 MVP vote getter in 2019, got votes in 2020 and 2017. He also was an All-Star in 17-18-19 and twice won the silver slugger in that stretch. His lifetime OPS+ was 131 when he signed with a 141 the year before signing - for a CF that is fantastic. Heck, for a corner OF that would be nice. He had 6.4 WAR in 2019, 2.2 in 2020 (over 5 if you adjust to a 162 vs 60 game season). He had 2 other 5+ seasons for WAR before that. If that ain't top tier I don't know what is outside of Judge.

Gausman had a 147 ERA+ and was an all-star with MVP and Cy Young votes in 2021. He was very parallel to Ray imo and to the Jays and the market in general given his contract and Ray's. No one called him mid-tier when signed.

Ryu was 2nd in NL Cy Young voting before signing here with a 179 ERA+ to lead the NL, the year before he was hurt but still had a 198 ERA+ over 82 IP. Injuries were all that kept him from getting a $100+ mil deal.

Checking MLB Trade Rumors I see for 2021/2022 Gausman was #5 on their list, the #1 pitcher available. For 2020/21 Springer was #3 (a catcher and pitcher were ahead of him). For 2019/20 Ryu was #9 - Jays were said to be close on Cole (#1) but he went to NY instead. Just glad the Jays didn't get the #3 free agent that year - Stephen Strasburg who has pitched in just 8 games with a 61 ERA+ after signing a 7 year $245 mil deal. Yikes.

A good reminder of how top free agents can be busts. Nimmo I agree is similar to Springer - an excellent CF who can hit - and would fit very nicely. He is from Wyoming which isn't near anyone but Colorado. He appears to live in Georgia now but Atlanta has an excellent CF in Michael Harris (signed through 2032 potentially, last 2 years are team options). His Wikipedia page suggests he is a strong Christian and Trump fan which makes signing in Canada less likely I'd think. But in the end money talks so we'll see.
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 05:05 PM EST (#424898) #
I’d like to see one of those too but considering the “tax” we seem to have to pay in even the mid tier FA I’d be scared to see what those players demand here. We saw SD offered more term for judge and money for Turner and were rebuffed. How much more for those types here?
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uglyone - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 05:21 PM EST (#424899) #
So much defending of an FO that can't stop talking while always leaving their team short of the best, and looks set to let the young core driving any current success leave soon too.

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Polite Nate - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 05:35 PM EST (#424900) #
As the dust settles on the Winter Meetings, I look around all the deals made and am not particularly upset at the Jays here.

I'd have made that Verlander deal, but it's a big gamble.

I'd have made that de Grom deal, but it's also a huge gamble.

I'd have made the Judge deal, but not because I believe in him but only to spite the Yankees.

The rest of the big ticket deals seem a bit nutty to me. Not interested im finding out what a late 30s Turner or Boegarts looks like.

And the mid tier SP signings? Jeepers creepers, if it takes 72 million to get you Taijuan Walker then I'm happy to let Kikuchi take another crack at it.

I really like Nimmo's profile, but the injury risk makes me nervous. But if the Jays have to make a big ticket signing for the sake of signing someone, then that's the one for me.

And I say keep all three catchers until Moreno well and truly kicks down the door. You only have to rewind to last year's hand wringing over how much playing time Zack Collins was getting to see the dangers of counting on good health for your top two.
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Lylemcr - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 05:52 PM EST (#424901) #
I just took my hand off the Panic button.

I think I forget how young the Jays core is. More and more, I think I need to give everyone another year or two before I push that button.
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bpoz - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 06:13 PM EST (#424902) #
Pitchers health will be important IMO.

If healthy Pearson 5IP start followed by 2IP pitched after 4 days. Same for Zulueta. Both can legitimately blame their "failures" on poor health. Juenger 3-5 innings whenever. But that affects days off between use. So dominate AAA and if the Jays need pitching they will get a shot.

Kikuchi/White are questions.
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 06:31 PM EST (#424903) #
The FO can only do what ownership allows them to do UO. And unlike our competition the Jays are owned by a corporation not a rich guy trying to buy a team for vanity. Pretty much all your arguments can be answered by one response. It’s the owners. And no it’s not the FOs job to tell us all the details of how Rogers constrains their spending but they do.
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uglyone - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 06:33 PM EST (#424904) #
* Springer 33
* Bichette 25
* Guerrero 24
* Kirk 24
* Chapman 30
* Jansen 28
* Gurriel 29
* Espinal 29
* Merrifield 34

* Biggio 28
* Moreno 23


* Manoah 25
* Gausman 32
* Berrios 29
* Kikuchi 32
* Ryu 36
* White 28

* Romano 31
* Bass 35
* Swanson 30
* Garcia 32
* Cimber 32
* Mayza 31
* Richards 30
* Pop 26
* Pearson 26
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uglyone - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 06:34 PM EST (#424905) #
Damn right it's the owners. And the yes men they hired.
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grjas - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 06:36 PM EST (#424906) #
Comparing AA and the current front office based on their playoff successes is nonsensical. As another poster said, the postseason is a crap shoot, especially in a game of inches. Last year, AA’s stars and scrubs performed, as did many of the Jays’ in 2015 and 2016. This year our star pitcher, closer and set up man had their worst games of the season in the playoffs. Both VG and BB have gone 2 for 17 over two post seasons. Hardly the FO’s doing. Could they have used another high leverage guy to cover guys that didn’t have it on game days. Sure. No team’s perfect. But the stars have to perform.

I want a FO that consistently gets us into the playoffs so we have a shot. Two of three years we have done it, and the other we missed by a game. That to me is the more important measure.

Having said that, the off-season to date is worrisome and they will need to get creative to fill the SP and outfield/LH hitter challenges. Personally I think they need to aim high for at least one of those roles, and trading one of Kirk or Moreno would yield more. I actually don’t think they need both going forward anyway. Ideally trading one would bring back a young, hotshot LH controllable outfielder as otherwise a year from now they may only have Springer left to patrol the outfield.

We’ll see what develops.
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 06:43 PM EST (#424907) #
I think the current FO has signed enough quality FA and made enough impactful trades (Liriano, Teoscar, Ray, Matz, Stripling, Berrios, Chapman) that they deserve a bit more than being called yes men.
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soupman - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 07:00 PM EST (#424908) #
It seems obvious that the Jays need to do a better job on things that don't involve paying players market salaries - because they cannot compete with the teams that routinely outspend them (BOS/NYY). So the question is the one I continue to pose: what are they doing to make up this shortfall? You argue that they have and are...but the final standings every year suggest the contrary.

So what made Houston a perennial contender since 2012? Ownership change played a big role. The new group hired Jeff Luhnow who had previously had success in St.Louis developing players, and was a consultant at McKinsey before that, having graduated from Penn where he got an engineering degree while also studying economics.

Luhnow immediately started shifting the organization from the ground up. He hired a shiny new scouting and data departments. Some of those he hired would do anything to win, but on the non-cheating side: they also started "zigging" by investing more in sports psychology and mental wellness which has evidently contributed to excellent results in their player development - forcing other teams to play catch up. They took their data department and ensured that the entire org from the MLB down was applying the ideas. They've 'won' FA on guys like Verlander, while letting guys like Springer and Correa walk...which they can afford to do because they keep developing more stars not just first rounders. They haven't had a pick in the top half of the draft since before Shapiro got here, and no picks at ALL in the first round for the last 2 years. Toronto chose not to field teams that would net them a few years of strong prospects. So far, that does not appear to be a better strategy for the Jays measured by playoff success - but there is reason for optimism yet.

I think that when teams don't have the ability to outspend your opponents, they ought to do something different or better than the rest. I simply don't see where Toronto is doing that. I appreciate the effort you put in to replying, but I am not swayed to raise my opinion of this FO. They're far from incompetent - but equally as far from exceptional.
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soupman - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 07:11 PM EST (#424909) #
"crap shoot" implies randomized outcomes - which is demonstrably not the case. i wish people would stop saying this. obviously the chances of winning when you never make the playoffs is 0%.

the expanded playoffs and less unbalanced schedule make the FO's strategy more tenable than it has been historically. at the same time, it will increase the risk of these mega-salary teams. look at what's happening to barcelona, for example.

i would prefer to see the jays managed in more of a boom/bust cycle, but i admit that the way they are managed now, might be (for the first time) a better path for the reasons in the previous paragraph.
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grjas - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 07:12 PM EST (#424910) #
BTW I actually find Atkins rather annoying and rarely read much of his press given that his "media speak" is off the charts. And to me, some of his decisions seem downright weird. So I have no particular man-crush for this FO.

But if we want to evaluate them fairly, I would argue that the best measure is their win/loss record since the end of the rebuild. In the last three years, their win % is .560, the best three year period since the early 90s. And that's despite the fact they didn't have a true home stadium for many of those games.

AA's best three year period had a win% of 530, and even if we factor in 2016 results under the debatable argument "it was largely his team", his win rate is still lower. And let's not forget, while AA did some very good things, two of his key performers- EE and JB- were frankly late blooming "flukes" that no one including AA predicted. Where would his teams have been without them?

This FO is far from perfect but in the measure that matters most, they have performed the best since the Gillick years.
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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 07:55 PM EST (#424911) #
Basically what Grjas has just posted is what my view is. I don't think this FO is exceptional and nowhere on this site will you find that opinion expressed by me. I simply choose to defend them against posters calling them "Yes men," or "focused on value" or "dumpster divers" or the generally held views by some that they are only in place to print money for their owners. The examples used for these views are usually one sided, cherry picked or unrealistic - such as claiming players like Springer and Gausman are "middle or upper middle" in the free agency class.

I can name a few FO I would prefer over ours but the list is short:

TB - they are amazing and creative within their limits

Milwaukee - incredible with the farm and development

LAD - GM delivers in all facets (trades, farms, signings, strategy, etc)

Cleveland - unbelievable track record and development. Uncanny ability to adjust and find inefficiencies in the game to leverage

That's 4 FO which I would prefer or think are doing a better job than the Toronto FO.

NYY - terrible...spending a ton of money. They have about a billion dollars now in 5 players in their 30s and haven't been in the World Series in over 10 years

BOS - boom or bust no thanks.

BAL - promising but lets see what is done over 3 years after the reset

KC/CWS/MIN/DET - awful

HOU - look like cream of the crop but I don't think so. They were bad for so long then drafted an entire core from top draft picks. I wouldn't accept tanking for half a decade to repeat that cycle here. Then there was the cheating.

SEA - not enough stability. I feel nervous watching someone run an organization like a baseball video game.

OAK - self -explanatory

LAA - vomit

TEX - its a mess

ATL - I'd take the GM there now but don't think he's doing a better job. I grew tired of the job he did here before his final hurrah

STL - not as strong as they used to be but perhaps this FO deserves to be up with the top 5.
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 08:05 PM EST (#424912) #
Well I think they’re trying with player development. The new complex is a start but it’s clear the results are lagging. The only place soupman that they are imo excelling is the IFA market. It’s not the most innovative thing but they have done a great job of signing both expensive options there and cheap options. If you’re looking for innovation that I think is where they are doing it. They got an all star in Kirk for 7500. Moreno for just 25k. They have an excellent Latin and South America scouting department and both sign expensive FAs (both Martinezes, hiraldo, etc) but they also get a ton of the players who are cheap enough to not count against spending cap. So I think that is one thing the Jays do do better than their AL east counterparts.
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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 08:08 PM EST (#424913) #
Soupman,

After answering my questions I can only conclude you are misinformed on some of the arguments you are making. There is nothing wrong with your opinion or personal belief and I won't try to change it, but I'm happy to correct some of your points:

They Jays are already competing and outcompeting "the teams that routinely outspend them." They were a game behind NYY and BOS last year, 6 behind the NYY this year and ahead of BOS. They have a higher payroll than BOS. So you're wrong on two fronts.

Everything you say the Astros did has been done by this FO or is not relevant:

They hired someone with an engineering degree who studied physics? Non relevant to the fact that Houston did well.

Their FO hired a new scouting and data department. You're kidding right? Just about every team in baseball has these departments and then some. It's 2022! Maybe the Astros got a 1 - 3 year head start a decade ago. Again, this would not explain or be a strong reason why they have succeeded as they have.

They started "zigging" by investing in mental wellness and psychology for player development. Sorry but I'm calling BS here. This FO in Toronto has spent more $$$ and done more on player development and psychology than any other organization in baseball. They have the best training facility in baseball. They send their players through Navy training, etc etc. Again, not a good argument to convince me that the Astros had something to offer that this FO does not.

"I think that when teams don't have the ability to outspend your opponents, they ought to do something different or better than the rest. I simply don't see where Toronto is doing that." You haven't shown where any other team in baseball is doing this. Your examples are not illustrations of this. After reading your points I can only surmise that you hold the view that you do because you do and not for any other factual or realistic reason, which is completely fine and I can understand.


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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 08:11 PM EST (#424914) #
Soupman,

Not to be rude, but I just don't see how your examples back your argument against this FO and so it seems unreasonable to to hold this FO to a higher standard that you can't seem to explain or demonstrate has been done effectively elsewhere. Maybe it's just me.
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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 08:15 PM EST (#424915) #
Kasi,

Can't we say that the FO has developed at least to an average level?

They've developed Manoah into a Cy young candidate.

Developed Gabriel Moreno into a top prospect in baseball.

Developed Alejandro Kirk in to an All star.

Developed Vlad into a better defensive 1B.

Maybe Jordan Romano?

Then they have Martinez, Tiedeman, Zulueta and others.

I'd peg this FO as middle of the pack and not lagging.

Teams lagging in development:

PIT
KC
LAA
CWS
TEX
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greenfrog - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 08:16 PM EST (#424916) #
When a number of free agents and other players are signing contracts / extensions in excess of $300m, of course Gausman ($110m) and Springer ($150m) are middle/upper middle.

Just because $110m seems like a lot to you (perhaps because of Stockholm Syndrome as a Jays fan), doesn’t make it a top-tier contract.


[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 08:51 PM EST (#424917) #
"Comparing AA and the current front office based on their playoff successes is nonsensical."

False. Those AA Jays were legit probably the most talented team in baseball. This team is not. It's not a crapshoot.
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#2JBrumfield - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 09:01 PM EST (#424918) #
Scratch Brandon Nimmo off the list. Jeff Passan says he's back with the Mets on an 8-year deal worth $162 million. David Robertson also signs with the Mets for $10 million on a one-year deal.

The scuttlebutt (such an underrated word) now is Carlos Rodon may sign with the Yankees.
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Gerry - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 09:01 PM EST (#424919) #
Nimmo back to the Mets, 8 years, $162M.
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 09:12 PM EST (#424920) #
Hmm salary isn’t bad, term is kinda crazy. We’d probably have had to go to 9-10 years or to 25 million since we’re a new team for him. Can’t say I’m not sad at paying him 8/180 or 10/200.
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greenfrog - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 09:29 PM EST (#424921) #
One signing I liked this off-season was Zach Eflin (3/$40m). Smart of the Rays to get out of front of the FA zaniness and sign a potentially useful SP for a reasonable amount. He would have been a good addition for Toronto to slot in behind Berrios.
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soupman - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 09:35 PM EST (#424922) #
Saying that they pursue a high floor/low ceiling approach is hardly an indictment of them. I think they are very capable - and as I say in another post: the new rules (specifically expanded playoff spots and less unbalanced schedule) are likely to make this strategy one that could work, whereas it has historically proven to be a failure (by JPR).

The higher standard has been established by the NYY and BOS (and the other teams willing to spend past the tax threshold) in terms of spending money to build better teams: in terms of how much is required and in what areas it ought to be matched or surpassed. Or, in the case of the Rays - by innovating in other ways: "opener pitchers" being an obvious example, but there are many others that demonstrate their ability to lead and experiment.

The Jays appear (to me) to be run like a B+ NYY/BOS. They aren't fielding a team of slap hitters and elite middle relievers like the 14/15 Royals, they aren't losing for 8 years and drafting high like the Orioles of today, they aren't trading Arb-eligible guys like the A's and Rays to restock the farm. Let me clarify: I don't suggest they do any of those things. However, if they want to compete with NYY/BOS by running the team in the same way, then the financial side is one that (i think) also needs to be matched or exceeded; otherwise they need to find another way to outpace them. It's not 'bad' - but I just don't think it deserves praise, either.

Again, the new format and more balanced schedule are likely going to allow the Jays to make it to the playoffs more often than they have.
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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 09:48 PM EST (#424923) #
Well TOR is projected to outspend BOS in salary this year, or they were. Now with how quiet the Jays are who knows. Perhaps they will move down to 3rd in salary in the division and you could be right.
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 10:03 PM EST (#424924) #
Dalimon there was the report last year with the jays at the trade deadline that teams didn’t like the jays prospects. I think jays have graduated a few stars but have an issue with filling out the team. Especially the bullpen. So yeah I think there is room for improvement in drafting and player development. IFA is really filling in the holes but they need to be better.
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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 10:03 PM EST (#424925) #
"When a number of free agents and other players are signing contracts / extensions in excess of $300m, of course Gausman ($110m) and Springer ($150m) are middle/upper middle.

Just because $110m seems like a lot to you (perhaps because of Stockholm Syndrome as a Jays fan), doesn’t make it a top-tier contract."

Okay, so first paragraph you are clearly back peddling. Good.

Second paragraph you trivialize the truth by pretending you can see past a personal obstacle of mine and other Blue Jay fans (because you are a different type of Blue Jay fan) in order to see that George Springer and the biggest player contract signed in 2021 wasn't a "top tier contract." Right, let's continue...

Can't you just admit that they signed a premium top of the market player and you made a mistake in labeling him a middle player? Is it really that difficult?

Springer was the most expensive player signed in 2021 via free agency. He signed for $150,000,000 over 6 years. You want to compare that to Bryce Harper who signed for $330,000,000 over 13 years? It's almost the EXACT same $25,000,000 per year. It has nothing to do with "stockholm syndrome" it's basic arithmetic and statistics to bare out the market value of a player and his contract. You can say that the contract and the player are not premium or worth it to you as a fan but you cannot pretend it is not what it is, which is a bonafide top of the market contract for a bonafide star player.

Resident police checking out.
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greenfrog - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 10:42 PM EST (#424926) #
Channeling Taylor Swift, you need to calm down. I’m not saying that Gausman and Springer’s contracts weren’t significant. Of course they were. But there is no way you can argue that a contract in the $110-150m range is in the same category of financial heft and risk as one in the $300-400m range — see below — without some serious sophistry. But good luck trying.

Trout
Harper
Judge
Seager
Cole
Machado
Lindor
Turner
Bogaerts
Rodriguez
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 10:49 PM EST (#424927) #
Tbh all of those were in the last couple years other than Trout I guess who is an all time top five player. Springers contract was huge at the time it was made. It was the biggest of the year and one of the biggest the Jays ever made. It’s just that right after that FA exploded. The others I agree are mid level contracts.
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dalimon5 - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 11:19 PM EST (#424928) #
Green,

Let's agree on one thing. You nor I figured to be debating this late into the off season whether or not George Springer's contract was mid level or top of the market.

What are the Jays planning to do? There's no way they can be this quiet without some master plan, right? ...Right? They've been on a roll every off season picking up talent from free agency. They have one too many catchers, a team on the cusp and glaring holes. They traded one of their top 4 bats and then just went quiet....what is happening and when will they strike so it all makes sense?

When the silly season started I thought they could acquire one strong player like a Reynolds from Pittsburgh and then augment with good bench players or 789 players. Now I feel like that need to make 2-3 acquisitions of really good players. Teams are loading up and there's nothing Vladdy or Bo can do to fight that if this FO doesn't react with something strong.

I want contention every year, but damn if the Yankees and Red Sox get better, and the Orioles get better and the Jays... just get worse by trading Teoscar...doesn't make sense. If this is how it's gonna be then Tiedemann and Moreno be gone! Bring me shiny new toys to plug 2B, CF and SP.
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Kasi - Thursday, December 08 2022 @ 11:26 PM EST (#424929) #
Tbh the teams loading up are in the NL. Texas got deGrom but they’ll still not be good. Baltimore did nothing, Boston and Yankees got worse. Houston was already good and did fine. Seattle and Cleveland did minor moves. Rest of the AL very little. Most of the action has been in the NL and mainly Philly, Mets and Padres. Talent seems to be moving to the senior league which is good for us in general.
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John Northey - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 12:14 AM EST (#424930) #
I think signing one of the top 10 free agents, especially a top 5, counts as chasing the big guns. Yes, some others got $300+ million but those deals rarely work out in the end. See Albert Pujols for an example, or A-Rod's 2nd mega deal, or Giancarlo Stanton (Miami had to pay NYY to take his contract).

Right now at Cot's the top 6 deals go into the 2030's, you have to get to #13 for a deal that has run out (A-Rod's second deal), then #15 (A-Rod's first mega deal), #19 is Albert Pujols. The rest of the top 20 are still going. Which would you say are good? My quick views...
  • Too soon: Trout, Betts, Judge, Lindor, Tatis, Harper, Seager, Bogaerts, Turner - all going to 2030's so even good looking ones could turn really sour quick.
  • Good so far: Cole (10.2 WAR for $108 mil so far, $216 still owed through '28), Machado (17.6 WAR so far for $108 mil but $192 still owed through 2028), Arenado (19-26 20.8 WAR for $131 mil, but ugly for Rockies who signed him then dumped him paying $112 mil for 8.7 WAR and 5 prospects).
  • Ugly: Stanton ($164.5 mil for 23.2 WAR, owed $160 though 2027, Miami paid $60 mil for 14.1 WAR, Yankees $132.5 for 9.1 WAR - $30 mil of Miami's payments come out in the future but they did OK vs NYY), Cano ($180.3 mil for 23.7 WAR, plus $24 mil for 2023 - overall total reduced due to PED use)
  • Total Disaster: Strasburg (-0.5 WAR $105 mil, still owed $140 mil through 2026), Rendon (3.2 WAR for $90.7 mil, owed $154.3 mil through 2026), Cabrera ($208 mil for 3.0 WAR, $32 mil still owed).
One can argue a few of my placements but the story seems to be these are high risk deals. 3 total disasters, 2 bad ones (1 was good for the team that signed, but terrible for the team that traded for him), 3 that seem OK (1 was terrible for the team that signed him), 9 far too soon to tell. Brandon Nimmo isn't part of that with his $162 over 8 (seems like a future bad one but not in the same category as these $200+ ones) - I can see why the Jays didn't do that deal and I can't blame them - 8 years for a guy turning 30 seems very risky to me - 17.2 WAR so far covering a lot of prime years, I suspect the Mets will regret that deal in a few years.

If the Jays have $100-300+ mil burning a hole in their pockets there is still Correa, Swanson, Rodon, left from the top 10 free agents. Plus Kodai Senga at #11 who'd be nice as our #3/4. Andrew Benintendi is the top OF left and would be decent but nothing special imo - might replace Teoscar in net value...might.
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scottt - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 08:14 AM EST (#424931) #
GMs are signing expensive deals.

Let's take Nimmo for example. Figure that the Jays would have had to add an extra year and lose a draft pick+500K in IFA money. I would have walked away too.

Right now, overpaying on Stripling and Brantley would be sufficient, I think.

On the payroll, Fangraphs' rostersource has the Jays at 176M after ending the year at 175M.

I think Vladdy is interested in staying but wants a record contract.
I see Bo as wanting to relocate, but I'm not sure he's going to make the top free agents list.
The shortstop market is overcrowded. Every time someone sign a 9-11 year contract, that's one less potential destination.

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bpoz - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 09:10 AM EST (#424932) #
The discussion is passionate but polite and respectful. It is never easy when someone disagrees with you. That is really wonderful for da Box.

A few Bauxites don't like the way Atkins talks. Vague!! I praise him for that because he was pressured into when he would bring up Vlad and he IMO "cracked" by saying Vlad was not ready or something like that. Other teams do stuff like that for "years of control". It is a common practice. Acuna/Bryant. Atkins learned.

The Jays have done nothing since the Teo trade. No mega $ deals. No non mega deals also like Z Eflin. They may have tried. If an owner says yes/no to mega deals then that is what you do.

Regarding the "Master Plan". Atkins had a 6:44 min very pleasant conversation with some guys he knew. Sean Casey I think was one. Both V good friends. He was specifically asked a lot of things and he answered well enough for me. 3 were about ranking his needs going forward. 1) SP depth. 2) OF to replace the loss of Teo. 3) Using his C depth to trade. Atkins dismissed #3 but said maybe. So well answered IMO. He said the he "will" acquire a SP but no details given. Replacing Teo's O I found interesting. LHH is a important in balancing the lineup. He was leaning towards 2 players to offset the lost O.
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Mike Green - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 09:26 AM EST (#424933) #
Green

It aint easy being Green, dalimon.
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bpoz - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 09:29 AM EST (#424934) #
Not many expensive FAs left. Best bet is that high budget teams will sign them. After that a new phase of the offseason will start which will be trades, NRI signings and left over cheapish FAs.

The Miami GM said to be patient.
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Ryan Day - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 09:40 AM EST (#424935) #
Jon Heyman tweeted something I'd been thinking: "One ramification of the free agent frenzy: The trade market is dead (at least for today). Teams obviously would rather spend $ than give up players."

The return for Teoscar was a bit underwhelming, and the Cards preferred signing Contreras to giving up talent for Murphy or Jansen. Will the trade market heat up with most of the big FA's signed? Maybe, or maybe not. I'm not optimistic the Jays can add a significant piece without offering Kirk/Moreno/Tiedemann/etc.
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John Northey - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 10:03 AM EST (#424936) #
Patience is important at this stage of the offseason. I saw this as a jump in quick or wait it out off-season. It appeared the Jays tried to jump in quick on Nimmo but his agent was patient and got him 8 years (insane). He has CAA Sports as his agent - not at the Boras level, but have a lot of clients and I'm guessing they are very good at their job (sucking as much cash for their clients).

Now the trick is to wait out Arizona and others before making a trade for an OF. Current OF is Springer, Gurriel, and an assortment which includes natural OF Lukes (no ML experience), and IF's listed as OF Merrifield and Lopez, plus Biggio and hot prospect Spencer Horwitz (LH 275/391/452 between AA/AAA while playing 1B/LF/DH entering his age 25 season). I'm wondering if the Jays think Horwitz is ready and are leaving space for him. IMO it seems Merrifield is going to be everyday in the OF somewhere (he has 175 ML games in RF, 88 in CF, 38 in LF) while having Lukes (285/364/425 mostly in CF - 301 G in CF, 193 RF, 103 LF, just 9 DH lifetime) as the 5th OF and giving Horwitz time in LF/RF in AAA to see if he can handle it everyday. Lopez might make the team as a universal backup (lifetime minors 150 2B, 121 SS, 66 LF, 44 CF, 24 3B, 9 RF, 7 DH - cover all but C/P and seemed to fit in personality wise with the team last year).

Maybe that mix/match can work. I wouldn't want to bet on it but it could.
C: Kirk-Jansen-Moreno
1B: Vlad
2B: Espinal-Biggio
3B: Chapman
SS: Bo
LF: Gurriel
CF: Springer
RF: Merrifield
DH: rotation (lots of Kirk & Vlad)
Backups: (2 not counting Jansen-Moreno-Biggio) Lopez, Lukes

Merrifield has the ability to get his butt on base with tons of singles-doubles-triples lifetime plus lots of SB so a different type of player from the rest of the lineup. The order would go Springer-Bo-Vlad-Kirk-Chapman-Gurriel-Jansen/Moreno-Merrifield-Espinal/Biggio and if Merrifield hits like he did a few years back he can move to 2nd pushing everyone else down a notch. Could work.

Rotation is Manoah-Gausman-Berrios then hope and pray for Kikuchi-White, OK, hope and pray for a new guy for #4 so only 1 slot is open for Kikuchi-White-Pearson (if healthy)-etc. until Juenger, Robberse, or Tiedemann is ready.
Pen is Romano-Swanson-Garcia-Bass-Mayza-Cimber-Richards-Pop and 1 of a big group - Merryweather (out of options)-Pearson (if healthy by some miracle)-Thornton-Gage-Hatch-Kay-Zulueta and many others I'm sure. Pop could be demoted to make room if needed.

The team is in better shape than I thought as I look at this. If Moreno can handle the OF (CF or RF especially) then this just might work. Schneider will earn his money with lots of shuffling of players (Mattingly's experience will help there I suspect after his experience in 2020 with a Miami team that used 25 hitters and 37 pitchers to get through 60 games and snuck into the playoffs).
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dalimon5 - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 10:40 AM EST (#424937) #
Ben Nicholson Smith tweets that the Jays have Brantley and Conforto on their radar and could look to ARZ and MIN for outfield help. Benny usually has strong but subtle hints to where the Jays are going. He’d been mentioning Andrew Heaney as a main target for a few months now which was accurate. Heaney signed for less in Texas. If indicative then it means the Jays may be looking to fill the OF with options like:

Brantley
Conforto
Kepler
Varsho
Thomas
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SK in NJ - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 10:50 AM EST (#424938) #
MLB Trade Rumors just posted about Max Kepler drawing trade interest. That seems like a realistic trade target for the Jays without having to give up too much in return. Great defense in RF, left handed bat, team option for 2024, and intriguing Statcast profile despite slightly below league average wRC+ the last couple of years. Not the sexiest replacement for Hernandez, but would certainly help the team improve defensively and add balance to the lineup from a RH/LH standpoint. There might also be some upside with the bat given his exit velocity and expected numbers (xwOBA, etc).

With Nimmo gone, there isn't many options out there. Conforto and Brantley are likely the best ones, but they would be one year deals, and in Brantley's case may not be the best fit if Kirk is still on the roster. A trade is also possible, but if Jansen is the one they want to trade, then I'm not sure they get anyone from the Diamondbacks. Maybe the Brewers would trade Frelick for Jansen, but even that seems like a stretch (trading 6 years of a young CF for 2 years of Jansen).

I didn't necessarily have an issue with trading Hernandez, but trading him without having a backup plan lined up was a pretty risky decision. Hard to say who the Jays end up with at this point.
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Ryan Day - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 11:30 AM EST (#424939) #
If Moreno can handle the OF (CF or RF especially) then this just might work.

I'm pretty skeptical that Moreno could be a decent outfielder in 20203, given that he's played 1 professional game there. I know he's an athletic & smart guy, but that's a tall order. (Lourdes Gurriel jr has all the tools to play the outfield, but it's still been a harsh learning curve)

If you're looking to move Moreno, the infield is probably a better bet, since I think he played there before going pro.
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Nigel - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 12:27 PM EST (#424940) #
I'd be far more optimistic that Moreno could handle the OF than I would that Brantley was still a capable OF. Brantley's LH bat would be useful but it would have me scratching my head if that was the route that they chose to go. They were pretty adamant this year that they preferred to use the DH role as a way to semi-rest regulars or to get Springer into the line-up when one of his inevitable injuries kept him from playing the OF. I like Brantley but think he's a poor fit for this line-up.
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Shoeless Joe - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 12:54 PM EST (#424941) #
I like Max Kaplar as a viable 4th outfielder, who with his good statcats numbers and removal of the shift has some upside. However not as a regular for a playoff team, we would still need more production or upside in another outfielder.
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Ryan Day - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 02:01 PM EST (#424942) #
Brantley is pretty clearly a DH who can play the field now and then. I also wonder about Conforto post-shoulder-surgery - is his arm strong enough to stay in RF? Is he limited to LF, or even DH, even if only to start the season?

It's amusing that instead of moving Springer to a less demanding position, it's possible they'll surround him with outfielders who make his job even more demanding.
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dalimon5 - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 02:24 PM EST (#424943) #
I'd rather they save any money from guys like Conforto and Brantley who will cost $15 per or more yearly and send that money to Rodon. Have a top rotation and try to fill the rest of the team with bench players.

Gausman
Rodon
Manoah
Berrios
Pearson/Kikuchi/Tiedeman

That should put you in every game. Trade a catcher for an OF.
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John Northey - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 02:25 PM EST (#424944) #
Just looking through MLB Trade Rumors and noticed there are 2 big name SS left - Carlos Correa and Dansby Swanson. Correa has a standing offer from the Twins for crazy money on a short term deal which I suspect he might take if no one is willing to shell out $300 mil. But Swanson is having trouble finding a market from what I can see. Gold Glove SS who had a 115 OPS+ last year you'd think he'd get a massive deal but his lifetime wRC+ 95 and just the one Gold Glove but generally nice defensive stats both at FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference. Wonder if he might be a match, then trade Bo for pitching help. 7 years $154 was MLBTR prediction for him, but the market makes me think he is now thinking he can get $200+, but if he comes down to 7/$154 given he is entering his age 29 season that would cover 29-35 seasons, which is a bit longer than I'd like - I'd want a 5 year deal, but $22 per year isn't bad to risk when you figure Bo will want $30 per before signing on the dotted line (offense sells better than defense generally) and how nuts some deals are getting this winter. I'd hate to see Bo go, but this might be a logical move for the Jays long term depending on how well they think Swanson will age. However, this is a deal that couldn't happen until mid-January to late February when free agents start to go 'crap I need to sign soon or I'm screwed'.

Of course, I could be way off - they mention the Cubs, Twins, and Giants are all looking for shortstops with the O's and Red Sox on the edge of it. He'd probably like to stay in Atlanta but their offer is in the 6 year $16-$17 mil range according to reports and unless he REALLY wants to stay there he has to view that as an insult given how the market has gone ($96-$102 mil total).

Fun to speculate on what could happen, but is very unlikely to. FYI: Swanson is a RH hitter so no balance via him. Same for Correa (RH bat but very solid D and O and just entering his age 28 season). Still TONS of possibilities. My bet though is on a 'meh' 4th OF type (platoon sorta with Merrifield) and a decent, but not wow, 4th starter. The big excitement being left for mid-season when a C trade would happen to fill in the worst hole on the team in an effort to win. Send Moreno down for 70+ days to get him back to 6 full years of control after 2023 (he got 61 days last year) which would add more value in a trade for him or give him more value to the Jays.
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dalimon5 - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 03:04 PM EST (#424945) #
John,

Reading your post and thinking about signing a 29 year old shortstop reminds me of the time I met Shapiro briefly and asked him about Tulowitzki and he had nothing to hide. He shook his head and told me something to the effect of "That guy needs to be on the field." The way he said it just took me aback a little bit. I got the impression that Shapiro could care less for a player that is not able to provide value every day. How will Swanson look at age 35?
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Glevin - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 03:15 PM EST (#424946) #
I don't get Brantley as a signing as he takes away a lot of flexibility which lessons some of his value as a hitter. He's a DH who can play a handful of games in LF if you really need. I'd much much prefer Gallo who can play all 3 OF positions and I think will be helped by shift rule more than almost anyone. He's not elite but he could replace Teoscar decently or be an excellent 4th OFer getting 350-400 PAs. My ideal thing would be signing pitcher as a free agent and then using catcher to trade for OF. There are just more FA starters out there. Sign Eovaldi/Bassit/Stripling as the #3/4 starter and then trade catcher to Arizona or someone else for long-term CFer answer. CF is a hard position to address in free agency in general as most free agents are around 29+ and D in CF starts to really decline soon after that.
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Shoeless Joe - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 03:24 PM EST (#424947) #
I would really like a Jansen for Sal Frelick trade now. I just think he really fits this team and would cost less than the Arizona outfielders.

I really like the idea of singing Rodon, but I wouldn't go past 5 years.
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John Northey - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 04:26 PM EST (#424948) #
Excellent point dalimon5 - I think Shapiro is very risk averse when it comes to age. He took a risk on Springer (4 more years at $24.2 per) 6.4 bWAR 6.7 fWAR for $53.3 mil which is decent so far, but will he be worth $24.2 per year going forward? Probably (just needs to be a 2-3 WAR player with today's market).

Worth noting who else the Jays debated signing that winter...
  • Trevor Bauer: Now there was a disaster for the Dodgers, a sign character matters.
  • J.T. Realmuto: 10.0 WAR so far for $43.9 mil, owed $71.6 over the next 3 years but as a catcher what a 4 man creature we'd be facing now eh? But dang would be a nice problem to have.
  • Marcell Ozuna: ranked just after Springer, -1.0 WAR for $28 mil so far, $37 mil still owed (including buyout) - total disaster as a LF/DH
  • DJ LeMahieu: Jays were very close to signing him it seemed, but he stayed in NY - 5.3 WAR for $30 mil, owed $60 mil over the next 4 years (ages 34-37) - been a good deal so far
  • Ha-Seong Kim: this one annoys me still as the Jays could've had him if they guaranteed him a roster slot, 7.1 WAR for $11 mil is a killer deal, $17 mil still owed plus $5.5 mil posting fee so net cost of $33.5 mil - even if he quit today he'd be a net positive for the contract.
  • Jake Odorizzi: was a target but luckily wasn't had - $29.9 mil deal for 3 years but just 0.6 WAR so far - ugh.
  • Michael Brantley: We thought he signed for a few hours, but instead went back to Houston. $32 mil got them 3.8 WAR which isn't bad, but where the heck would've he played here?
  • Justin Turner: $34 mil for 2 years in LA - 5.7 WAR - a good deal but he wasn't signing for that to play here, Jays would've had to add at least 1 more year and more cash.
Gives an idea as to the other options when they signed Springer and again shows the danger of signing the big guns. Bauer and Ozuna both were total busts, but the bargain has to be Kim. LeMahieu would've required a lot more money to come here, Odorizzi was a bust, Brantley not terrible but wasn't a solid fit imo. Realmuto and Turner both would've been nice but I like what we have in both positions instead (Kirk and Chapman).

Bottom line - I don't see the Jays really going after Swanson unless his price comes down - IE: late February. Similar for Correa. Too much age risk. One Springer (Mr. IL) is enough risk for this team. Mostly this is a thought exercise here - toss a lot at the wall and see what sticks.
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dalimon5 - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 04:44 PM EST (#424949) #
I echo Glevin and Shoeless' posts. Sign Eovaldi and Bassit (if you're serious) and trade for a CF even if its not a bonafide young CF with big upside similar to Kirk or Moreno.

Sign some LHH on short term deals like Conforto or KK and watch the other teams deal with those onerous huge contracts in the next few years. I don't see Bogaerts or deGrom aging particularly well and can see them being at replacement level in less than 3 years. I think BOS will be ahead of the Yanks within 2 years based on "TB Mentality" vs overspending.

By the way, Alek Manoah, Yordan Alvarex and Dylan Cease all earned an extra 2 million dollars last yeat based on performance bonuses from CBA. That's awesome.
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bpoz - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 05:30 PM EST (#424950) #
Atkins wanted/suggested to cover the lost Teo O with 2 players. He also wants better D overall. He definitely will acquire another SP he said.

2 more Merrifield types will not cover Teo's lost O. I will wait.

I doubt anything will change in the IF. Maybe trade Chapman since he has only 1 more year of control. If traded then gamble that Moreno can replace him at 3B until Olelvis or Barger is ready. Orelvis, Barger and Leo Jimenez are all on the 40 man and may earn a promotion.

D Bundy is a SP. There should be a few Kikuchi/White level SPs out there. Then wait for the farm.

The ask for S Murphy was very high it seemed. From St Louis L Nootbarr, B Donovan and a high pitching prospect Graceffo. I would not question St Louis because of their ongoing success. Was their top prospect Jordan walker asked for? Would they have parted with him? St Louis got FA W Contreras for a lot of money. They preferred that.

So Atkins probably is holding out for a "comparable" ask for his 3 Cs.
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dalimon5 - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 05:51 PM EST (#424951) #
Jon Schneider was on a podcast yesterday and emphatically stated that Matt Chapman is a key part of the team and will help to strengthen the defense of Bo especially with the new shift rules coming into effect (in past you could have Chapman, Bo and Espinal between 2B and 3B or thereabouts.
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lexomatic - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 05:56 PM EST (#424952) #
Maybe trade Chapman since he has only 1 more year of control. If traded then gamble that Moreno can replace him at 3B until Olelvis or Barger is ready


This is a serious retool move. You get rid of way more than Chapman because there's no real in house replacement. I've championed Espinal but that's a big loss. And your gamble is not something that a team serious about contending makes. Which is why realistically you're trading more to fill holes and punt a window a few years away. Because Teo AND Chapman is a lot of offense to replace with no sure thing. I also don't see Moreno as 3B in this scenario.
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dalimon5 - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 06:14 PM EST (#424953) #
Moreno is a top 10 prospect in baseball. I don't know if he cracks the top 75 if he isn't behind the plate.
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dalimon5 - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 07:10 PM EST (#424954) #
from Buster Olney:

Yanks are making a play for Carlos Correa and Andrew Benintendi. Brantley wants to go to the Yanks. Pirates aren't that motivated to trade Reynolds.
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John Northey - Friday, December 09 2022 @ 10:32 PM EST (#424955) #
Interesting - Yankees going to try to flex that budget muscle they have - first team over $100 mil, then $200 mil, now trying to crack $300 it seems (Dodgers were at $302 last year for CBT purposes so they did it first, Yankees at $259). Yankees first cracked $100 in 2001, $200 in 2005 so this has been a long time coming. They still could have the first raw payroll over $300. Of course, the Padres are charging hard for it too. Not really a battle most teams want to win I suspect.
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bpoz - Saturday, December 10 2022 @ 07:57 AM EST (#424956) #
We need to speculate on the new rules coming in next year.

Shifting: For D youth & athleticism. Chapman is elite. Hitting will improve somehow. More hits of the single variety. Is this what other people are speculating?

Pickoffs by the pitcher is limited to 3. Therefore a factor (major/minor) for the pitcher to deal with. The C can also get involved IMO. How? He tries to pickoff the runner at 1st. I sort of expect some old style pitchouts. That aspect of the C will be more important I think.

Larger bases: Easier DPs. Easier SBs. So advantage to more youth and athleticism. It could be less power and more speedy players. And also managing may be different. I am just going to say "no bunting" per Cito.
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bpoz - Saturday, December 10 2022 @ 09:39 AM EST (#424957) #
I expect the 1st 2 months of 2023 to be very interesting.

Pitchers with good K numbers. GB VS FB pitchers.
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scottt - Saturday, December 10 2022 @ 09:44 AM EST (#424958) #
I don't see why the Yankees would want Brantley.
They have too many DHs already and they like a good defensive LF.

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scottt - Saturday, December 10 2022 @ 09:54 AM EST (#424959) #
Brantley can hit in the top 3 and get on base.

Fangraphs' roster-source always had Teoscar as the DH.
Springer can play a couple of games in CF every week and the bulk in RF.
Merrifield can play CF 3 times a week and the 4th outfielder could play the 1 or 2 games left.

If you keep Kirk out of the DH spot, Brantley would replace Hernandez's offense and the defense is improved.
I'd take a couple of B prospects for Jansen.
Brantley is a platoon who doesn't start games against lefties and Guerrero doesn't need to DH more than that.

It's actually a really good fit. The team could use a couple of platoons.

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dalimon5 - Saturday, December 10 2022 @ 11:39 AM EST (#424960) #
John, Don't forget the Mets at a projected payroll of 308 million.
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John Northey - Saturday, December 10 2022 @ 01:09 PM EST (#424961) #
Good point dalimon5. The CBT is going to be royally low very shortly. Basically any real contender outside of the Rays will be shooting over it. You won't be able to have any star players post-free agency without doing it. $230 mil as a limit will look low like $130 mil would've in 2012 (5 teams over $130 mil then, Jays in their cheap phase with a $75 mil before going nuts that winter). 2013 saw 7 teams over $130 with 2 over $200 mil (Yanks/Dodgers) Jays climbed to $118. Good old Baseball Cube. An excellent resource in addition to FanGraphs and BR.
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uglyone - Saturday, December 10 2022 @ 01:16 PM EST (#424962) #
Kiermaier.

There is some sweet, sweet shared risk.
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Shoeless Joe - Saturday, December 10 2022 @ 01:23 PM EST (#424963) #
I am really not a fan of this signing, I mean he’s better than JBJ and Zimmer as a spare outfielder but I can’t feel disappointed we haven’t found any real upside yet this off-season.
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dalimon5 - Saturday, December 10 2022 @ 05:06 PM EST (#424979) #
im happy with this move so long as its a replace Zimmer/Bradley Jr/Tapia only. I can see the upside possibly post hip surgery.
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Kasi - Monday, December 12 2022 @ 11:35 AM EST (#425034) #
Apparently the Pirates are looking for a Soto package for Reynolds which is ridiculous. Explains why nothing has happened there so far.
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