This is great, thanks Magpie.  And yeah, props to Kaitlyn McGrath.  She does some good stuff, and it's great to see so many women in these positions. 

Lots of action to come?  Quiet offseason?  I know what I would do, but what will this FO do?

First they need to clean out the deadwood - Zimmer obviously, but maybe they'll give it up on Tapia - OPS by month 589-545-813-922-389-728, with his poor defense he needs to be an 800 OPS guy but he only did that in two months, the sub 600 in 3 months and the meh 728 to end the year wasn't anywhere near enough. He is a free agent after 2023 so I really don't see any point in tendering him a contract.

I fully expect some trades. One of the catchers, one of the 2B, one of the corner OF. I almost can imagine keeping all 3 catchers if they clear out Merrifield and and OF thus opening up a slot for him to play everyday, but that would cut his value drastically. The smart moves are to do deals involving those positions. Get a LH OF, a CF who can hit at least for a 600 OPS and be decent on defense to caddy for Springer or even push Springer to RF. Get a solid 4th starter who ideally is more a #2 (110 ERA+, 6 IP per start guy). Not easy, but possible. Hopefully Atkins is closely looking at the top Japanese free agents/postings too - a solid starter (Kodai Senga sub 2 ERA, OF/DH Masataka Yoshida (LH 327/421/539 in Japan lifetime) for example).

Fangraphs has its write-up of the top 50 free agents, including staff and crowdsource contract estimates.  The figures for Ross Stripling were surprisingly low to me- 2 to 3 years at $10-$11M per year.  I'd sign him for any combination of those in a heartbeat. 

And if the left-hand hitting outfielder market shakes out as they project, there are quite a few enticing alternatives. 

Nimmo is a solid fit but it's unlikely the Jays get involved in the 5/100 range, so it's really just Conforto, Brantley, and Pederson as options. The Jays would be well served trading Gurriel or Hernandez and signing one of those bats.

I suspect this winter will be all about speed. Sign someone fast to avoid the inflated prices as the winter rolls on - $20 mil is now less than half the top salary so 5/$100 isn't that bad anymore. Nimmo's big issue has been health - just twice over 100 games in a season (including 2022). Safe to say years will be the big issue to him. If teams get nervous he might be looking at 3-4 years so the Jays to win would need to add that 5th year ala Ryu's 4th year. Is it worth the risk? That is the question the Jays braintrust I'm certain is going through right now. A 130 OPS+ CF who bats left would be sweet, but if he is hurt all the time we are looking at a Springer v2 but, like with Springer, he can be a force when healthy. Of course, like Springer, he is a leadoff guy. So if signed someone has to move to #2 - ideally Nimmo so you'd have R-L-R to start every game.

Where to cut salary to avoid going too far over $200 mil? Trading Hernandez is pretty much the only option. Wonder what he'd get in a deal? Anyone out there need a veteran RH OF who is 'clutch'?

A good LH bat is talked about a lot on da Box. If we acquire that via FA or trade I will feel "I don't know respect? be amazed? by da Box". Yes I will!!

My attitude is called cynical?? Definitely sincere!!

The Ryu contract was a success in part IMO. Without him we would not be as successful in 2020 and 2021. Too bad Covid made the revenue numbers faulty.

Conforto makes the most sense, IMO. Since he missed all of 2022 and is coming off an injury, I can't imagine he's getting a long term deal, and when healthy he's certainly capable of being a bat that can hit in the top of the order. He might end up being the best combination of upside and reasonable contract length available. Another good target would be Brantley, both for hitting and veteran leadership (which a young Jays team could probably use), but he's likely a full time DH (or close to it) at this point so the team would have to use DH for him rather than a resting spot or a spot for Kirk.

Ultimately, what the Jays decide to do with the catching situation is going to be the important decision they make all winter. They could go a number of different directions there.

Of note: the HOF vets will be voting on the 'contemporary' group (main contributions from 1980 to now)...

Barry Bonds*, Roger Clemens*, Curt Schilling, Albert Belle, Don Mattingly, Fred McGriff, Dale Murphy and Rafael Palmeiro*

I figure if they want to send an anti-PED message (vs their manager votes) they'll go with McGriff and maybe Murphy. Schilling is an a-hole who no one likes, Belle right there too. Mattingly one of the most overrated players ever (42 lifetime WAR, 4 years of 5+, 4 years sub 1 in a 14 year career, made playoffs just once and knocked out in the first round). McGriff has 52 WAR, 4 years of 5+, 5 years sub 1 in a 19 year career). Murphy has 46.5, 6 years of 5+ (2 MVP's), 7 sub 1's over 18 seasons. Forgot how long Murphy hung on - a peak or nothing guy.

What bugs me more is the names left off the ballot - non-PED guys like Stieb, Hershiser, Saberhagen (all over 50 WAR), or batters like Lou Whitaker (75 WAR, 4 years over 5, just 1 year sub 1 over 19 years), and Kenny Lofton (68 WAR, 7 years of 5+ WAR, just 2 sub 1's). Any of those 5 would be better for the HOF than the guys on the ballot. Ignoring PED's and jerkiness Clemens, Bonds, Palmeiro, Schilling all would've been in long ago. Belle, Mattingly, McGriff, and Murphy are all HOVG guys imo - none had the length mixed with peak to be HOF'ers imo. McGriff is the closest with Murphy being a good peak candidate. FYI: Guys with 2+ MVP awards not in the HOF are Pujols (not eligible), A-Rod*, Bonds*, Trout (NE), Miguel Cabrera (NE), Juan Gonzalez (not that good 38 WAR lifetime), Bryce Harper (NE), Roger Maris (that was it for his career no other years of 4+ WAR). So 2 PED guys, 4 not eligible, and 2 who just weren't that good (sub 40 WAR each, barely pass Whittaker when combined 76 vs 75). Murphy lands in that 'not that good' category but was slightly better than Gonzalez and Maris.

Right now my bet is they say 'screw it' and put in PED guys in bulk via Bonds, Clemens, & Palmeiro just to get it over with. Writers should put in A-Rod too just to make it simple for everyone then anti-PED people can skip the celebration this year and not think about it again. Rolen and Beltran can go in next year. Andruw Jones, and Todd Helton will get in eventually I figure but not this year. Manny Ramirez*** (caught 3 times I think) might be left out forever as he was just too many times caught - never being caught (Clemens, Bonds) or just once (Palmeiro) I can see saying 'OK, we let spitballers in so we can live with this', but when you get caught over and over again I say 'nope'.

Conforto seems like a good OF to get. He and Teo seem quite similar to me. So $ and team long term plan would be the major consideration.

For trading the way I think or it:

1) Trade present for present. Grichuk/Tapia.

2) Future for present. Martin/SWR for Berrios. Or the Matz deal.

3) Present for Future. Liriano for Teo. Stroman for Kay/SWR.

Yeah, I'd say Atkins has shown he can do all 3 types of deals. This year needs to be a different style - where you get younger and better at the same time - very hard to do. In the old days Gillick could do this - the classic Carter & Alomar for McGriff & Fernandez deal for example. Today fear of contracts would be a bigger factor making it very hard to get a guy still pre-arb for a guy who is near free agency unless that other team is desperate for a certain player/type of player to get over the top.

What teams are in the 'must win now' situation? In our division the Yankees might be, but that's it. AL Central? White Sox have a reasonable mix of vets and youth, no idea on farm, but might be feeling pressure after 3 years of contention but didn't reach the ALCS let alone the WS. The Twins look fairly young from a quick scan and should be fairly safe from the pressure but losing Correa will make them press a bit this winter and their OF was a bit weak (their OF was 11th of 15 in the AL for OPS+ with a line of 230/296/390 total) so they might want one of Hernandez-Gurriel. They were 10th for C OPS+ (197/275/355) Jhoan Duran in their pen would be nice to get (LH 11.8 K/9 vs 2.1 BB/9) and I see a few 10+ K/9 guys in there. Their rotation had a few nice guys but no idea on availability. Still, there is a potential match depending on what they think their needs are. The Angels are desperate to contend as they'll lose Ohtani if they don't and Trout's prime is being wasted there. Their LFs stunk (14th at 208/259/339) as did their catchers (13th 188/268/309, yes someone was worse). The problem is doing a quick scan of their ML roster no one jumps out at me as 'yes, that is who we want'. Of course, 2 of their top 3 prospects are catchers so a match might be hard here.

I'm certain there are many other teams in a 'must win now' situation for their GM if he wants to keep their job. But those 3 teams came to mind quickly. The Giants, Brewers, Mets all come to mind as well. Are there good fits? Hard to say. We will see what happens this winter.

Manoah is a finalist for Cy Young (top 3). Top 3's in Jays history are ...
Winners: (5): Clemens (2), Halladay, Hentgen, Ray
2nd: (3): Key, Halladay, Price
3rd: (3): David Wells, Halladay, Ryu
TBD: Manoah

Oddly, Dave Stieb's best was a 4th (voters were win addicts in the 80's). I have seen reports of there being 9 before - must be just counting players and missing Price as he was just a half year here. But there is no question, it was 10 players, now 11, to finish in the top 3 for Cy Young as Blue Jays.

Leaving Whitaker off the ballot is absurd. He's legitimately a top-10 2Bman ever. My guess is that Mattingly, Murphy, and Mcgriff get in because these guys always seem to vote for the worst candidates. (MCgriff is borderline. Other 2 aren't really close IMO). Bonds and Clemens should absolutely be in. By any measure, both are inner inner circle HOFers. The Ted Williams/Walter Johnson kind of players. Keeping them out keeps the HoF silly. I mean, Bud Selig is in the HoF. I understand more borderline cases but these are not borderline talents.

I think going after a young pitcher from the Marlins is a great idea. I mentioned this before.

Miami will not spend a lot of money. We have traded a fair bit with Miami. Villar in 2020, Cimber in 2021 and Bass/Pop in 2022. Groshans seems the only good prospect we have given up.

I don't know if Miami is willing to spend more than TB. Miami may have a better fan base. So low payroll for Miami.

I think the contracts for Alcantara and Snell are similar. Who can we trade to Miami? Tapia is a ML OF IMO. Nothing great but still capable of some value on Offense. Zimmer can be a D only OF to protect a lead which is valuable. But his type does not need to be traded for. Teo gives them a huge boost on offense and may not be expensive due to only 1 year before FA. Plus he probably gets a QO. Gurriel is half the cost of Teo and if healthy is a 20 Hr player. O Lopez seems to have no value here but may in Miami.

Who would we get? They only have good unproven young arms. They cannot all play unless there is injury/non performance. If not playing in the ML then they are burning options in the minors. E Cabrera has burned all 3 options if you count 2020 which it seems that we must.

Miami has probably already made known to the other GMs that young pitching is available for bats. I expect that they will get a lot of offers. LAD would pay but would want an arm that they can option or not even put on the 40 man like K Williams and N Frasso.

S Alcantara has 4 more years left on his contract. Very difficult to rebuild and compete against Atlanta, NYM and Philadelphia.

That is going to be a very interesting rebuild.

This seems like as good a place as any to bring up the amazing four-part deep dive into Dave Stieb's career on youtube from Secret Base.

The first episode is here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZlviajJlctQ

As a Jays fan too young to remember him pre-about 1986 the doc really put his amazing career in context. Not enough to persuade me that he was better than Halladay given they pitched in different eras, but that's a debate for another time.

Here's the Blue Jays franchise page from BBRef.  The #1 player by WAR while a Blue Jay is Dave Stieb, and it is not close.  From 1982-85, he was a 7 WAR player every year (well, 6.8 one year but who cares?).  Nobody else had a run like that. 

where you get younger and better at the same time

Both teams pulled that off in the Carter-Alomar trade. Alomar was the youngest and best player in the trade, but Carter was the only one already in his 30s and his best season had come five years earlier. McGriff was the next youngest, and the next best, player changing teams.

But the Jays got a little lucky, if you can call it luck, in that Carter aged much better than Fernandez. Carter's first four seasons here, at age 31-to 34, were the best four season run of his career. Fernandez never approached his 1985-87 level again.

All eight of the players on the HoF ballot are obviously better than many players who are already in, and there are even more even better qualified players who didn't get included on this ballot.

Dale Murphy - the Andruw Jones of the 1980s. Same team, same position, exact same career shape. Each put in ten seasons as a great player (Andruw much more glove, Dale much more bat - but Andruw could hit a little and Dale won five Gold Gloves), and then they both went right off a cliff.

Atkins said that he wants to get another SP and add a bit to the pen. As far as the C situation he said that teams are very interested in all 3. No specifics but evaluations are being made on each C and he may keep all 3.

I'm certain the Jays have fully evaluated all 3 catchers and know what it would take to give up any of them in a trade, and what to do if they lose one or two in trades. Like most teams, the Jays are very high on Moreno right now, a 111 OPS+ and 0.7 bWAR in his first 25 ML games is a good sign. All but his first minor league season he had an 800 OPS, and that was at 17 over 32 games (a 570 OPS) all as he enters his age 23 season (he is 2 years younger than Baltimore's Rutschman). So it is easy to see why everyone loves him. Jansen is a solid defensive catcher (finalist for gold glove in the past) and was known for his bat in the minors (over 800 OPS his last 2 years down there) which is finally showing up in the majors (141 OPS+ last year). Health is obviously his big issue. Kirk has power, patience, was Manoah's primary catcher after being Ray's the year before - you catch the Cy winner and finalist 2 years in a row (different guys) and your rep on defense will automatically jump. Mix in that he is just entering his age 24 season and has 4 years of control left and you get a TON of value.

Basically any team would be very happy to have 1 of our 3, all 3 are strong on defense and strong on offense. This is a lot like how 1B was in 1987 with McGriff/Fielder/Upshaw which was blown as the Jays played the weakest the most (Upshaw) due to veteran status, then lost Fielder to Japan. Ugh. But in '89 they got Olerud which created a 2 headed crowd at 1B again until the McGriff/Fernandez for Alomar/Carter deal. Then it came back with Olerud/Molitor/Delgado where they dumped Olerud (terrible choice). 1B for years was insanely good here. Lets hope catching can be the same but with better choices made.

Great write up on our Cs John N. I said the evaluation part wrong so I checked if Atkins misled me somehow. He did not. He is evaluating the interest of other teams in the 3 Cs. This makes more sense.

Oakland's Sean Murphy could be traded. He has 1 more year of control than Jansen. Then they have 3 kids Langeliers, Soderstrom and Sucac. Soderstrom has an incredible bat but his C skills are lagging.

Atkins won't say what he'll do.
You always say that you are willing to keep expendable guys or you will get noting for them.
He might have to wait until the decent free agents are all signed.

I could see a guy like Jansen going to a struggling team like the Tigers for a high K reliever.
The fans there are starting to lose patience and you can always add relievers back when you start winning.

Other than that, there's not a lot of money to save.
A decent pitcher will be expensive even if they trade for a guy with a couple of options left.
Gurriel is cheap. Hernandez will be on a contract year and worth a QO at the end.
Merrifield is cheap and can play a decent CF.
Guy finally gets to play in the postseason after catching fire in September, gets nailed in the head in a blowout in an apparent retaliation for Manoah's drilling the star player the previous day, gets taken off while the pitcher is not penalized and Jays lose the game.

On the 40 roster, Zimmer, Lawrence, Tapia are obvious drop.
Otto Lopez? I would have said Hagen Danner too, but apparently the stuff looked good in the AFL even if the results were not.

BBRef says that Carter's age 26-29 run was noticeably better than his age 31-34 run.

It says four seasons with an OPS+ of 115 are better than four seasons with an OPS+ of 117?

Carter was quite a bit better in other phases of the game earlier in his career.  He was an effective base-stealer and baserunner, and could play centerfield (until he turned 30).

Carter was quite a bit better in other phases of the game earlier in his career.

I'll buy "slightly better" but not "quite a bit" or "noticeably!" He wasn't a great centrefielder in Cleveland in 1988-89, either. He was always best suited to a corner. But Brett Butler had skipped town. He did more base stealing in Cleveland and was better at it, but he remained a good base stealer in Toronto. Obviously you don't run quite as often with Winfield and then Olerud hitting behind you. And he was always a good base runner even after getting older and losing a step.

Quibble, quibble, quibble!

I will cry if the Raptors retire Vince Carter's number before the Blue Jays erect a glorious Joe Carter statue.

Moves are starting...
Tayler Saucedo has been claimed off outright waivers by the Mets
Casey Lawrence has cleared outright waivers and been assigned to Triple-A

OK, not exciting or even unexpected but it is something. I figured Saucedo would be lost on waivers as he always looked interesting but had injury issues and always felt like the 9th man in an 8 man pen.

In the AL only Oakland does not care about winning.

It would be wild/strange if every other team played 500 or better. I think Texas might but I have doubts about Detroit, LAA and KC. I can't do the math for predicting how the above would end up. I probably need to understand curves I think. I guess 2 good teams only (NYY and Houston) with 95+ wins and everyone else in the 80s.

In the NL it seems that Pittsburg, Cincinnati and Washington will not try to compete. I checked what the Colorado GM said and it seems he will not do much to improve the team because it is not yet time. Everyone else is enthusiastic.

Jays have exercised they $3M option on Anthony Bass. No-brainer / expected / good news..

bpoz - good point about so many teams living on dreams right now in the AL. The Angels need to be win now, but don't have the horses - 4 regulars last year were sub 100 for OPS+, as was every non-regular outside of Livan Soto (59 PA) and Monte Harrison (14 PA). Basically their offense was Trout, Ohtani, and Taylor Ward (28 years old, -0.5 bWAR before 2022). Very solid rotation, solid pen. But to win you need to score a few or you lose a lot of 1-0 games. 3 times they lost 1-0, 5 time 2-1 and once 2-0. 12 times shutout. Ugh. 8 times the Jays were shutout - just 3 losses when the Jays allowed 2 or fewer runs.

Now, could the Angels have an offensive resurgence in 2023? Maybe. Stranger things have happened. Most of their top 30 are not expected to help until 2024 though which is a big problem for a team that NEEDS to win in 2023 - they are most definitely a team to be taken advantage of ala the David Wells deal years ago.

The Tigers were like this last winter - and they are dreaming in technicolor if they think they will win in 2023 imo. The most PA for anyone who had a 100+ OPS+ was 351 for 29 year old catcher/LF/DH Eric Haase. Their rotation was ugly - one guy with 21 starts, 8 guys with 10+ starts but just 2 with 100+ ERA+'s (111 max). They need a lot of growth to get where they want to be, and should be focused on rebuilding still not contending.

I'm glad the Jays took 2019 off to rebuild, then were still planning a rebuild in 2020 but had a miracle happen in the short season with Vlad, Bo, and Biggio all doing very well, while Hernandez and Tellez hit the crap out of the ball. But the trick was the Jays had the kids leading the way, not desperate trades/signings of old vets.

I'm glad the Jays took 2019 off to rebuild, then were still planning a rebuild in 2020.

That's not my recollection of 2020. The team played well in the 2nd half of 2019 and Atkins spent over $100 million on Ryu and Roark that offseason. More appropriate to call it "starting to go for it", rather than the continuation of the rebuild.

Similar to what the Tigers, Mariners and Rangers tried to do this past offseason.

3 words for this offseason
- Pitching (Need a flame thrower to come up in key situations and shut the door
- Pitching (2 starters needed + a swing man)
- Left handed batter

Before I begin. Whatever happens this off season, this year will really depend on Teo, Vlady and Bichette rising back to 2021 form. If that doesn't happen, similar results will happen. Good, but not great....

First question I have is what is in the minors.
- Orvelis (RHB...) So much power.. and nowhere to put him
- Tiedemann - When a pitches rises this fast, you need to make room for him. I could see how is the next Alex manoah.
- Zulu - Not much to prove in the minors. Just needs to get healthy
- Brown - Crazy speed. If he does well in AA this year, I would love to see him get a chance. I think every great team needs that speed demon.

The best trade partner is likely the Mariners. Maybe trade Orvelis for one(or two) of their young stud arms. How about Lordes for Winker and Flexen? Take Jesse Winker(LHB) off their hands and see if you can get him back on track. He has a good OBP, even with a bad batting average. Just getting out of Safeco field will get that BA up 30-40 points (and the OBP to about 400). Flexen can play 5th starter\swingman if Zulu\Tiedemann make the leap.

So, for free agents, I would love to see Stripling come back or Walker. Then maybe sign a couple vets at smaller contracts that are trying to get back on track (like Bundy, Pineda or Archer). Then, spend big money on some relievers.

I am curious to see what the Jays will do with the utility player situation. It seems with Biggio, Espinial and Merrifield, they have alot of options. Then you add in Moreno, it seems like access. I like Espinial at 2nd. He does alot of things right there.

Then the catchers. Unless they get something really good, I say do nothing and play Moreno as utility and Kirk gets alot of DH time.

NO QO for Stripling.

Turner and Nimmo got one.

Per MLBTradeRumours.

There was some suggestions over the last few days that the Jays were interested in reliever Robert Suarez. So much for that, he just signed a 5 year $46M deal to stay with the Padres.

It seems that there is plenty of money in baseball.

Nathan Lukes was added to the 40 man today to keep him in the system. Lukes had a good season and I thought he might get a call up a few times, and he hits from the left side.

In regard to the 40 man I believe Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger and Yosver Zulueta will be added. I don't believe Spencer Horwitz will and I am leaning to Adrian Hernandez not being added either.

The top 50 FA and predictions at MLB Trade Rumors is always fun. They have the Jays as serious contenders for (contract expected in brackets) Noah Syndergaard (Three years, $36MM), Rafael Montero (Three years, $24MM), Carlos Estevez (Three years, $21MM), Ross Stripling (Two years, $18MM - sounds like a bargain to me), Michael Brantley (One year, $15MM), Mike Clevinger (One year, $10MM), and mentioned in the comments for Kodai Senga (Five years, $75MM).

For comparison, last winter they had the Jays in the comments for Kris Bryant (0.4 WAR), Kevin Gausman (3.0 WAR), Marcus Semien (5.9 WAR), Max Scherzer (5.2 WAR), Chris Taylor (0.5 WAR), Jon Gray (1.4 WAR), Anthony DeSclafani (-0.8 WAR), Justin Verlander (5.9 WAR), Steve Matz (-0.4 WAR), Kendall Graveman (1.0 WAR), Yusei Kikuchi (-1.1 WAR ouch). Expected to sign: Robbie Ray (expected to sign by all 3 predicting 2.1 WAR), Kyle Schwarber (1 of 3 2.2 WAR), Raisel Iglesias (1 of 3 1.6 WAR in relief), Kenley Jansen (2 of 3 0.9 WAR in relief), Kyle Seager (2 of 3 retired), Eduardo Escobar (1 of 3 1.2 WAR). Always interesting to see what the experts thought (and screwed up on) - kind of glad the Jays didn't get any of the guys predicted to be signed by them in the end, all the good ones were in the 'Jays a consideration' group - WAR/player consideration 1.9 (even with 3 over 5, wow), for potential signed (skipping the retired guy) 1.6.

Boy are free agents a crapshoot eh? I expected a LOT better than sub 2 WAR per player who the Jays were rumored to be after or who they were expected to sign out of the top 50 players.

For reference here are the top 50 for 2020/2021...
Comments: Trevor Bauer (ugh), George Springer, Kevin Gausman, Masahiro Tanaka, Liam Hendriks, Michael Brantley, Marcus Semien, Andrelton Simmons, Jose Quintana, Kolten Wong, Trevor May, Blake Treinen, Tommy La Stella, (not listed as likely chasing Ray for that year), Cesar Hernandez, Kirby Yates, Rick Porcello
Should sign: DJ LeMathieu, Jake Odorizzi

2019/2020's list: Jays not expected to be in on Ryu,
Comments: Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, Edwin Encarnacion
Should sign: Tanner Roark

Like I said, interesting to review a year or two later. Clearly the Jays weren't expected to do much going into 2020, but in 2021 and 2022 were expected to blow a fortune and did.

QO's were given to...
Aaron Judge, Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, Jacob DeGrom, Dansby Swanson, Carlos Rodón, Brandon Nimmo, Willson Contreras, Chris Bassitt, Anthony Rizzo, Tyler Anderson, Martín Perez, Joc Pederson, Nathan Eovaldi

That is a LOT of players - 14 players with some others who would've got them if they could've (Verlander, Correa, Kershaw, Syndergaard for example). Funny, same as last year - 14. Only Brandon Belt accepted one last year (then went and had a 92 OPS+ after a 160 in 2021).

I believe that some players will accept the QO. Joc Pederson for 1. He will get a very good raise.

R Suarez got a nice 5 year deal after just 1 season. He will be 32 to start 2023. Some teams are spending a lot. SD spending does not surprise me.

The Jays surprised me by adding N Lukes. I assume he has options. He will help Buffalo anyway.

In regard to the 40 man I believe Orelvis Martinez, Addison Barger and Yosver Zulueta will be added. I don't believe Spencer Horwitz will and I am leaning to Adrian Hernandez not being added either.

I agree on these. Hernandez is a really tough call.

What's your take on Gabriel Martinez, Jimmy Robbins, Brandon Eisert? Martinez is a long ways away but the upside is big. Robbins & Eisert may or may not amount to anything, but it's not hard to picture them sticking on a big league roster.

Would keep Martinez. I don't worry too much about Rule V but you don't want to lose someone with that much upside and a team like the Pirates could carry him all year. I don't care about losing Lukes or Zimmer or Kay but Martinez has the chance to be a regular in a couple of years.

As a contender the Jays need some fringe players that are "useful" rather than "good" on their 40 man roster.

Zimmer was good as a defensive replacement in the OF to protect a lead. So he was useful. Springer, Teo, Gurriel, Tapia were not healthy enough for the OF or non elite on D. Zimmers LH bat was terrible. That said I suspect that Zimmer is easy to replace.

Elite prospects like Orelvis can be impact players in maybe 2 years. Leo Jimenez has the elite D now and may develop his O. Zulueta is my #1 prospect. He has the potential to become a V good SP IMO.

Guys that don't need to be protected but IMO could make a big impact next year are Juenger for example. Some pitchers on our ML staff will fail which would create an opening. Allgeyer got a call up for that reason.

Click is no longer the Astros GM. Strange to say the least.

Click is no longer the Astros GM.

Crane obviously wanted him gone, just as we kept hearing. A one year offer?

Some team will hire him - Pittsburgh would be smart to - last in the playoffs in 2015, sub 400 winning percentage last 3 years, 4th or 5th in NL Central (a weak division) every year from 2017 on. Ben Cherington might be good, but his 3 years have been ugly to put it mildly on the field, but their farm is good (ranked top 10 by the systems I checked) - FanGraphs had them with 6 guys 50+ but just one at the 60 level - Oneil Cruz who hit 233/294/450 as their SS this year. So he might not be in danger. Washington has had 3 bad years in a row, but their GM Mike Rizzo has been around for over a decade. The Reds look prime - Nick Krall has run them since 2018 and they only snuck into the playoffs in 2020 (swept) and stunk last year. Some have their farm ranked highly, but just 4 guys with a 50 or better FanGraphs score 2 of whom graduated to their rotation this year (sub 2 WAR each). If I owned that team I'd be looking closely at giving Click a 5 year deal to run that team.

Can't see Click going to some cheap spending team like Pittsburgh or Cinci. His resume should get him better than that.

Click has only been there since 2020... There were rumors how the owner stopped a trade at the trade deadline. He didn't build the team with what it has, so there might be something more there.

I am kind of surprised how little is going on at this stage. I figured most teams would've planned ahead and prepared deals for this period. Guess too many want to feel out the market. I'm still of the mind that whoever strikes first and fast will do best this winter.

My high risk best is the Jays getting Koudai Senga - RHP starter from Japan. I figure one of these years the Jays will actually sign one of these high impact players from overseas. Should be a solid #3 between Manoah/Gausman and Berrios thus leaving one open slot for mass chaos or resigning Stripling. If deals don't work out and he sticks around in free agency until January I could see them signing Nimmo (LH CF), sadly I see Verlander, deGrom, Rodon, and all the great SS's and Judge as being out of reach. I just hope Judge goes to the NL (Mets just to piss off the Yankees totally). Syndergaard I see as a possibility due to high upside depending on price (MLB TR has him at $36 mil over 3 which seems reasonable, but I expect him to get more).

Yes Jonny G, all of those three need analysis in the front office.

The history of teams taking a hitter who isn't ready and essentially sitting on him for a year is not good. The missing year of development really hurts those players so that might be why Gabriel Martinez is not protected.

Relievers are the most common rule 5 selections so Eisert qualifies. But relievers are a dime a dozen and need to stand out to be picked. The Jays have too many "average" relievers on their roster which might mean there is no room to protect Eisert.

I would like to protect Robbins but it always comes down to choices. If the Jays are planning to sign a couple of relievers this off season they could DFA Richards or Thornton now, protect Robbins and deal with the fallout later in the off-season.

Thornton seems a safe DFA - purely used in the pen in the majors this year, 46 IP 7.2 K/9 3.3 BB/9 - very 'meh' and below average with his 91 ERA+ lifetime. If lost no big worries, but would be nice to keep around as a long man/spare part - there has to be dozens of guys like him out there who would take a AAA deal with ML spring invite.

A big factor has to be options remaining as well for guys at the end of the bench. A few marginal guys and options left...
0 left: Zimmer, White, Merryweather, Richards
1 left: Moreno, Lopez, Hatch, Kay, Thornton
2+ left: Danner, Griffin, Gage, Francis, Pearson, Lukes (now on 40 man), Jimenez, Capra, Pop (not really marginal but could become a 'numbers game' guy sent to AAA)

So expect Merryweather to be traded or released soon, Zimmer to be dumped, Lopez, Hatch, Kay, Thornton are all very marginal now with 2023 being their last year with an option. The rest have time thus will probably be kept. I figure someone will take a flier on Merryweather's potential still (getting old to be listed that way) as an extra part in a deal to push it over the top. The Jays don't have time to wait on his 100 mph heat but inability to stay healthy or effective for any length of time. Someone like the Pirates though would find a use for him I suspect.

Hmm.... Pirates have a decent starter in Mitch Keller who is 3 years from free agency and now in arbitration so a cheap team might want to deal him, Bryan Reynolds we all know and would like (CF bats both, not a free agent until after 2025 127 OPS+ lifetime) but like Keller is in arbitration thus expensive for the Pirates. So maybe a Moreno (star piece), Gurriel Jr (to fill in for this year and not look like a pure dump), and prosect Brandon Barriera (LHP, taken by Jays in first round last year but hasn't pitched yet). Mix in Merryweather for their pen along with Kay perhaps and you have a deal accepted at Trade Values which would fill in the CF issue and provide a 4th starter for the rotation who would be decent, but not great.

Pittsburg has been bad for a long time and Cherington has not indicated where on the rebuild the team is. Reynolds would be a good player to get and of course be expensive in prospects and maybe arb.

If Reynolds is available there will be a lot of competition.

Some moves are happening fast. Example R Montero signs $34mil/3yrs. He played 2022 as a 31 year old and was great after bouncing around the majors.

Jays have a whole bunch of guys who I'd be completely fine DFAing. Thornton and Griffin easily as pitchers with a couple of other guys like Richards and Kay being useful but not essential. Capra, Lukes, Zimmer, and Tapia are all pretty marginal as well. There isn't a real 40 man crunch where they have tough decisions to make.

Who will be this year's Tanner Roark/ Yusei Kikuchi?

Agreed Glevin. It is fun to debate which of those guys has value, but really if they get 50+ IP between them in 2023 it is a problem. Kay, Thornton, Griffin, Hatch all land in that category imo. Merryweather is close to it as well (if he goes so be it).

For the batters Capra, Lopez, Lukes all land in the 'meh' category - nice to have, but hardly vital. Lopez had 3 nice games to finish the season and give him a crazy 296 OPS+ but realistically he is at best the guy in AAA this year who hit 297/378/415 or his career minor league line of 305/373/420 - a LOT better than I thought it was to be honest. Hmm... maybe he isn't as marginal as I thought. Might actually be a useful backup right now if one of the 3 second base guys is dealt (Espinal, Biggio, Merrifield) as I expect to happen.

All things the Jays need to keep in mind - if player x is dealt who covers? If player Y is hurt who covers? Then they need to go sign decent AAAA guys to fill gaps in Buffalo with many getting a promise of a shot at the majors. I suspect Lukes going onto the 40 man is part of that (shows him he is seen as having promise here and shows other lifetime minor leaguers the Jays do view them seriously). I expect lots of relievers signed to AAA deals this winter along with other backups who will get spring invites and a real shot at the big team as backups.

Latest rumor is the Jays are after Andrew Heaney - 136 ERA+ over 16 games last year (72 2/3 IP), he is a LH starter with a 93 ERA+ lifetime, last year: 13.6 K/9 vs 2.4 BB/9 and 1.7 HR/9 - homer prone doesn't sound good for the dome (especially since he did a lot of that with the Dodgers after flopping with the Yankees), but everything else hits on the Jays 'drool zone' - where the GM drools over a player. First Ray, then Kikuchi, now Heaney.

The normal way to rebuild is to leave the pen for last. I accept this as being wise.

If you believe you are a contender then all parts of a team are important. O, D, rotation and pen. In 2020, 21 & 22 our O was top 3 in the AL so in 2021/22 we were considered contenders. Our rotation was quite good in 2021 especially with the addition of Berrios. 2022 not as good as 2021 IMO.

The pen had to be strengthened in 2021/22 at the trade deadline. In 2021 Cimber/Richards worked well Hand/Soria did not. In 2022 Bass/Pop worked well but Mitch White did not as the long man.

How do Bauxites rate the year M Chapman had? 1 bad offensive stat is that in 288 of his 538 ABs his Avg was under 200. May, Aug, Sept & Oct. He definitely provided some great D and his OBP was pretty good.

I mentioned the above because he should have good trade value. I doubt the Jays will trade him. His $12mil salary is quite good.

Chapman. The end results were good, but yeah some of it was not great. I haven't checked if he was streaky his whole career. Part of it seems like a return to health.
I would see if Barger is capable of being considered a 24 replacement or bench. With the possibility of qualifying offer.
If there's catastrophic injury elsewhwre and the team underpwrforms then I trade him if it's more than what the team gets for a qualifying him.

It's too quiet around here. I better lay an offseason plan to give Shapiro and Atkins some ideas.

1) Trade C Alejandro Kirk to Arizona for CF Alek Thomas and LHP Joe Mantiply.

2) Sign RHP Koudai Senga, 4 years $72M.

3) Sign OF/DH Michael Brantley, 1 year $14M.

4) Trade OF Lourdes Gurriel to Seattle for RHP Paul Sewald.

Non-tendered / traded: OF Raimel Tapia, RHP Julian Merryweather, RHP Trevor Richards


Opening day lineup and backups:

RF Springer
DH Brantley
1B Vladdy

SS Bichette
LF Hernández
3B Chapman (Espinal)

C Jansen (Moreno)
CF Alek Thomas (Zimmer)
2B Merrifield (Biggio)


Rotation: Manoah - Gausman - Senga - Berríos - Kikcuhi

Bullpen: Romano - García - Sewald - Mantiply - Bass - Cimber - Mayza - White

AAA pitching depth: Pop - Pearson - Thornton - Gage - Griffin - Juenger - Zulueta - A Hernandez - Eisert


The payroll for this plan comes in around $210M. I think this is reasonable, but if Rogers sets a cap of $200M I'd get down to that by signing a lesser starting pitcher (Stripling or Heaney) and trading Bass or Cimber for prospects. Trading a reliever may be a good idea regardless to create more flexibility for shuttling guys back & forth to Buffalo.

Rosters have to be set by about 5PM today. Some players will have to be taken off the 40 man roster. DFA means that we may not actually lose the player.

Trading Kirk seems to be the highest voted option in our poll. Almost half. I hope he is not traded.

Scott Mitchell had a couple of minor league updates today. Trent Palmer and Joey Murray both had TJ surgery and will miss 2023.

Dan Shulman is sticking with  his home team.  Good news. 

The tide has turned. I took quite a bit of heat when I was suggesting to trade Kirk around the all star break.

Good news!  Steamer projects that Yusei Kikuchi will be better in 2023 than Jose Berrios and Alek Manoah.  I guess their pitching need is less than I thought.  /s

I really don't see the Jays trading Kirk. He put up a 4 WAR, 129 wRC+, more BB's than K's, and top end framing at age 23, and he has four years of control left, including one more pre-arbitration year in a season where the Jays are going to have to be careful with money. The return would have to be pretty significant for the team to move him during a competitive window. I actually see him as the least likely of the three to get traded.

As far as which catcher they trade, the team was reluctant to use Jansen at DH for much of the season in 2022 except for the playoffs, even though playing both catchers at once was clearly the best lineup all season. They obviously don't mind using Kirk at DH, and Moreno can play other positions in addition to catcher to get him in the lineup if necessary. On top of that, Kirk/Moreno provides the most team control. I think Jansen is clearly the one they will move (if a catcher is moved at all), even though the return for him will likely be less than for the other two.

Looking at the payroll situation short and long term, the Jays need to start figuring out how to fill holes cheaply over the next few years. Moreno is one way. I am starting to believe that Barger could be a 3B option in 2024 when Chapman is a FA. That's a start. Turning Jansen into a long-term LHH outfielder, preferably CF, would be ideal. Whether it's realistic is another story.

The question with Kirk is whether he's really a catcher. He looked worn out for most of the second half of the season, and only slugged .320.

If you can only count on him to catch twice a week, around 60 games per season, that complicates the roster & usage of the DH spot. Since Kirk's role will likely depend on who's pitching, it's hard to use the rest of the DH time effectively.

Maybe the best solution is to keep Kirk, but make him the full-time DH. Make one of Jansen/Moreno the primary catcher, trade the other, and find a traditional backup.

I don’t think Jansen has enough value to bring back a good piece. I believe the Jays want a comparable player to Kirk or Moreno. So lots of control and very good and underpaid. Also either a LHH or SP. to me if Kirk is still here it is simply because the return was not of fair value.

Catcher is your position of strength and should be where you deal from since you don’t want to thin out the farm in a division where the Yankees, Rays and Orioles have solid farm systems. A good young controllable LHH OF from Arizona is a good place to start or some high end controllable pitching from Miami or a 2B like Jazz Chisholm…any of those types of players would work for Kirk and strengthen the team overall.

Only way Kirk stays is if Moreno is more sought after in trades which is entirely reasonable because he’s so athletic. I’m hoping another team pays fair trade value for Kirk based on all his amazing qualities and the fact that the NL has a DH now to help rest him.

Alek Thomas would be an underpay and if that’s the offer then you don’t trade Kirk. If it’s Jake McCarthy or Corbin Carrol then a different story.

I really like Jazz Chisholm and see him as the perfect player to balance out this line up in handedness as well as the offense in type of attack. They have 3 players I quite like in Luzardo, Jazz and Max Meyer. I think Kirk could get you Luzardo easily, maybe Meyer but definitely not Jazz.

I think Jansen is worth more to the Jays than what they'd get in a trade with him. He knows the pitching staff and they have a lower ERA with him behind the plate. Injuries are a concern but he could easily be the Jay's main catcher for the next7 or 8 years.

Trading any of the 3 catchers makes sense depending on the return and which way you view it. Keeping Kirk/Jansen is the best short-term competitive move. Keeping Moreno/Jansen frees up DH for Springer/others and likely increases the return in a trade. Keeping Kirk/Moreno involves the most team control. So if there is a Kirk deal out there that makes sense for the team, then I'm sure they'd consider moving him, but IMO I don't see them going that route. Although maybe that changes if the D-Backs are offering Corbin Carroll or a deal like that. I'm not sure if that type of deal will be out there, but who knows.

I really like Jazz Chisholm and see him as the perfect player...

I like everything about him except the back injury (and the knee injury, to a lesser degree). I suspect that if he is available, it's because the Marlins have doubts about whether he can come back 100%.

If the Marlins are making Jazz Chisholm available, I smell a rat.

I’d be happy to take that gamble. It’s hard to find 24 year olds who can’t play baseball because of a back or leg injury.

Spencer Horwitz has been added per Scott Mitchell

Manoah was only throwing to Kirk.
Both Gausman and Berrios had lower ERA with Kirk.
Stripling doesn't really count. He's not with the team anymore.

Kirk is a silver slugger and should be the primary catcher.
It would make more sense to use Moreno as the backup while he develops than use Jansen there and waste the DH spot.

Jansen's pitch calling ability didn't help in the playoffs.
He's better with finesse pitchers, but the Jays don't really have any of those right now.
If you sell high, this should be it.

Scottt, I am interested only in acquiring the best possible return using my surplus of catchers. Since Kirk is likely the most valuable out of the three as it stands, I would trade him so I have a stronger player or players coming back. Highlighting all of Kirk's strengths (and none of his weaknesses) only strengthens why I think he should be the one traded.

Jays have added four, Orelvis, Horwitz, Zulueta and Barger.

Foster Griffin has been released. Zimmer and Tapia DFA'd.

Tapia and Zimmer DFAd which makes sense. Tapia would be kept if he were making a minimum but he was going to make like $5M so just not worth it. Makes me hopeful Jays are going to aim higher this season.

Looks like Griffin was released so he can sign to play overseas.

Tapia was due to make $5M this season and I believe cash is tight. Between Horwitz and Lukes they have options, albeit might not be as good.

Tampa have a roster crunch so they DFA'd Ryan Yarborough. He has pitched well against the Jays from time to time.

Priority should be winning now, not improving the farm by dealing elite players who are under control.
Kirk is not a guy who projects long term. He fits on a contenders and those don't trade performing players, they trade prospects. Jansen could be a target for a rebuilding club. A guy who could help develop a pitching staff.

Tapia was too expensive. Zimmer can be added back once injured players go back to the IL60.
He probably gets a minor deal with a spring training invite somewhere.

Tapia was about replacement level. He had some good moments but started really slowly, possibly because they worked on his swing. Lukes played all 3 outfield position at AAA. Tapia doesn't have a good arm. Horwitz is possibly a backup for the DH/LF job but hopefully they sign a regular.

Zulueta is a backup for Mitch White's spot. I don't expect him to make the team.
I don't see Capra lasting very long. Orelvis is at least a year away. Probably more.
Barger is very interesting, but Chapman is almost an iron man.

It is interesting but I pretty much agree with the Jays assessment - Zimmer is 100% replaceable, as is Tapia - paying them more than $1-2 million is wasting money.

Did Tapia get better over the season? First half: 275/300/388, 2nd half 252/281/368 - nope, worse in all 3 categories. His August was a killer - 12 sOPS+ (OPS+ vs all others in August) - yes, twelve. His July was great - 156 sOPS+, after a 121 June. But yeah, I see zero reason to keep him around. sOPS+ by month Apr-Sept: 74-57-121-156-12-107. He just isn't that good a player.

Going with Lukes saves the Jays $4+ million, probably gets a better defensive player and maybe better offense too. FanGraphs projects them as Lukes: 243/304/365 91 wRC+ vs Tapia: 263/307/386 97 wRC+ - Tapia a tiny bit better but random chance could easily shift wRC+ by more than 6 points. Zimmer... well... 198/279/311 72 wRC+ but his value is his defense.

Capra I see as a mix/match with Otto Lopez - the two of them are the backups if anything happens to Biggio/Merrifield/Espinal or Bichette. Horowitz is the Vlad backup, Bager the Chapman backup. Orelvis Martinez is the once and hopefully future super-prospect (tons of power). Right now the Jays have Lukes, Lopez, and Merrifield listed as outfielders on their 40 man roster. Easy to imagine them going with a 3 starters plus Lukes OF while Merrifield is a super-utility flipping between 2B/OF/DH roles depending on opposing pitcher, defensive needs for the game, and who is hot.

21 pitchers is a bit much for the 40 man roster imo, but not a shock given the teams needs. Rotation of Manoah-Gausman-Berrios-White-Kikuchi right now, Bass, Cimber, Garcia, Mayza, Romano, Richards in the pen (6 of 8 slots) with Pearson, Merryweather, Pop likely fighting for the last 2 slots if the season started now, while Gage, Hatch, Kay, Thornton fight in AAA to get back to the majors vs kids like Zulueta and Danner try to earn their first trip to the show. To be honest I'm surprised Kay, Thornton, and Hatch all made the cut (for now).

So thus far in the offseason losses: Tapia, Zimmer, Griffin, Saucedo. Free agents: JBJ, Phelps, Stripling. I think Lawrence qualifies for minor league free agency. Only Stripling is a significant loss if he doesn't resign out of that group imo. Phelps has been nice but is probably gone now.

This is the trade the Jays need to make
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/11/mariners-trade-rumors-jesse-winker-chris-flexen-marco-gonzales.html

Winker's year was not great, but Safeco does that to some players. I think if the Jays got him, he could be a solid 270 hitter with an OBP around 370 (and 20-30 HR) if inserted in the right spot. Plus he bats left.

Winker + Flexen + Toro for Gurriel + One of our 2nd basemen.

Minor League FA's - Baseball America
Toronto Blue Jays
RHP Jose De Leon | RHP Jake Elliott | RHP Brady Lail | RHP Elvis Luciano | RHP Eric Yardley
LHP Trey Cumbie
C Ryan Gold
1B Yoshitomo Tsutsugo
SS Eric Stamets

milb transactions
11/10/22 RHP Casey Lawrence elected free agency.
10/09/22 RHP Shaun Anderson elected free agency.

Not Listed - should be FA's
15's & Older
RHP Abdiel Mendoza
C Stevie Berman
SS Luis De Los Santos

16's
RHP Jol Concepcion | RHP Edisson Gonzalez | RHP Roither Hernandez | RHP Nathanael Perez Lopez
LHP Naswell Paulino
2B Rafael Lantigua
SS Hugo Cardona
OF Chavez Young | OF Sebastian Espino | OF Steward Berroa

Winker + Flexen + Toro for Gurriel + One of our 2nd basemen.

Thumbs down. That's a trade you make if you're trying to go from 65 wins to 81, not when you're trying to go from 92 to 97.

Winker could be interesting to fill the Tapia role, but not a guy to prefer over Conforto or Brantley or Happ. And why would you want to further clog the roster with Flexen and Toro?

Winker is a perfect player to target after you find a better LHH who will join the core. Trade Kirk or Moreno for that player then trade surplus players or low grade prospects for Winker. A Winker could be the 2nd LHH in the line up.

There were stories earlier in the off-season about how Winker had a bad attitude and wasn't willing to work on his game. Basically he doesn't put in the work and then pouts if he is not in the lineup. The Mariners grew tired of him and he was sent home before the end of the season.

He would be a big risk.

Link to the above.

I am happy with our 40 man additions. Orelvis, Barger and Zulueta all have the potential to be impact players.

Horowitz has a v good bb/k ratio, good Avg and hits a lot of doubles. Lukes has been good in AAA. I don't project either to be impact players. I liked Kevin Smith better, traded to the A's, has a strong arm and can play IF & OF.

The rumors about the Jay's Cs have started. I will try to not get engrossed with these rumors. Also rumors about Japanese pitcher Senga to the Jays. This one could happen because the Jays have been successful in getting impact players for 3 straight years.

Thornton getting Arb is questionable to me because he is "just an arm". He is not succeeding in getting ML hitters out. Maybe he figures something out by ST.

I am puzzled about the handling of Nathan Lukes.  I have no opinion about him generally, but I don't understand why the club wouldn't have given him a look in 2022 if they were considering adding him to the 40 man.  It's not like he was an improving 22 year old.  He turned 28 in July and was essentially the same player in 2022 as he had been in 2021.  His value is entirely dependent on whether he's a capable defensive centerfielder, and on that, I have no idea at all.  But he's not likely to be getting demonstrably better at that than he was a year ago. 

I too am baffled by the treatment of Lukes - he had a solid year and when he wasn't given an opportunity with the team, I assumed the team had made a decision on him - I guess with letting Tapia and Zimmer go, the team wanted a left-handed outfield bat on the roster, but it seems more ad hoc than strategic planning.

I was interested in Jesse Winker as a bounce back, free agent year candidate but after I read that report on his bad attitude and lack of preparation for games, I hope the Jays take a pass.

Teoscar has been traded to the Mariners according to Jeff Passan. No word on the return yet.

Teo to the Mariners - return TBD.

Adding Nathan Lukes to the 40-man roster keeps him in org for another season instead of letting him walk as a minor league FA. I expect that he'll eventually be DFA'ed, clear waivers, and be outrighted to AAA to start the season as a non-roster depth player. This move just keeps him around for another season.

sourses say that Teoscar has been traded to Mariners.

I was for trading Teo last year - with only 1 year of control I don't expect much back - I'm going to guess Winker + Kelenic

Freeing up an OF corner was exactly what the Jays needed to do (not forcing a C trade). Now go find a LH bat and a CF.

MLBTR has it as Eric Swanson and Adam Macko coming back.
Swanson is a pretty intriguing bullpen arm.  Controlled until 2026, is probably instantly an 8th inning guy for us.
Macko looks like a meh pitching prospect. Was 10th on the fangraphs list for seattle in May but the year wasn't incredible.

I suspect that this means that we are getting a true CF and Springer moves to right.

I will miss Teoscar Hernandez, and wish him well.

Swanson had less velocity on his fastball in 2022, but it was more effective. 

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Macko looks like a meh pitching prospect. Was 10th on the fangraphs list for seattle in May but the year wasn't incredible.

He does have a low of 13k/9 and is still only 21. Not nothing. Control and stamina are real issues, but less 'meh' than I expected from your post.

We can't ignore the payroll components of this deal, assuming to cash changes hands. We know the Jays are close to being maxed out on payroll, this gives them more flexibility.

There has been some discussion that left handed hitters are in demand due to the change in shifting rules for next season. Another aspect of that could be an increased role of your right fielder if more balls are getting through. Having a more mobile Springer in right might also be a small win from this deal, assuming a new CF is on the way.

Teoscar Hernadez to the Mariners for a reliever was an idea I thought made sense going into the off season. Hopefully they now use the cash they are saving for a starting pitcher.

Absolutely pathetic trade.

A consistent 130wrc+ 3war hitter to buy high on a soft tossing reliever who had one good year at age 28.

Cheap MFers.

The payroll flexibility is huge, but I don't think that cash is involved, given that Hernandez doesn't currently have a contract. Seattle gets to negotiate his Arb3 deal and the Jays avoid a ~$14M commitment.

The Jays continue to like pitchers with splitters.

I always liked Teoscar and I think he he provided great value as a hitter and people were too critical of his defense.

This move only works if it is a precursor to using the money on starting pitching and a new person manning center field.

Macko is a good prospect if he can stay healthy.

He has good projection, and has swing and miss stuff.

Uglyone, baseball trade values says the Jays would need to add $7m for it to be an even trade. At this point, it doesn’t appear that the Jays included any money That would make the trade an overpay for the Mariners.

Teoscar is a great hitter, but with only 1 year of control and a projected arb of around $16M, there wasn’t a lot of surplus value there. Plus, with Springer likely moving to RF it doesn’t leave a lot of playing time for Teo if he were to stay.

Let’s wait to see who else they bring in before we start freaking out.

I love Teoscar but one of him or Gurriel had to be moved. Now do the Jays go after Brandon Nimmo or make a trade for a young centerfielder with upside?

This certainly looks like a trade motivated by the desire to move Teoscar so as to clear RF for Springer. That's never the best way to make a trade. You end up having to take whatever you can get, there being a very limited number of teams for whom one year of Teoscar makes sense. So I assume - I hope! - there is already a definite plan for CF, whether it involves the money they saved or not.

This does signify rather clearly the team has a budget they’re not going past. Also rather clear from FA that bullpen arms are pricey. So it really matters what they’re using the 10-11 million they save from the price difference between the two players. Hopefully get a LH CF. Also Gurriel from what I heard was more a clubhouse leader so makes sense to keep him as a 4th OF.

It's impossible to judge the trade in isolation as it depends what else the team does this winter (and surely there is more to come).
The return isn't overwhelming but it should help the bullpen and Macko is an intruiging arm for the future.  I like Teo and he's still good but I think 2021 was his peak and he won't be worth a big contract after this season at his age.  Springer badly needs to move to right and be replaced by a decent two-way CF who hits left.  The trade opens some payroll for this type of move, and it's only later that it can be fully judged IMO.  That said I would have preferred trading Gurriel who I think is a lesser player and more often hurt.

Teo is one of the best bats in the league. I also thought his D was getting better.

More moves have to come to replace his bat in the lineup. Earlier today I thought 7,8,9 in the lineup was Chapman, Jansen and 2B. I felt Moreno would earn a higher spot in the batting order with experience and good results. As of now the offense has taken a big hit.

New 2023 shifting rules have to be considered. By the AS break there will be enough data. So some hitters will benefit and others will suffer.

3 years of control on Swanson, and an estimated salary of $1.6m in 2023. That's ~$12m to spend on the rotation or towards Nimmo. Add in Tapia's $5 and there's $17m (ignoring all arbitration raises etc).

"It's impossible to judge the trade in isolation as it depends what else the team does this winter (and surely there is more to come)."

My feelings as well. I loved having Teo. Fun player but it does seem like a fair trade with Teo having only one more year left. Jays bullpen is a lot better than it was a year ago.
Romano, Garcia, Swanson, Bass, Mayza, Pop, Pearson, White/Kikuchi would be a good pen. Macko is a real prospect and Swanson was absolutely elite last year with 3 more years of control.

From MLB trade values on twitter:

@BaseballValues


Today the #Mariners acquired OF Teoscar Hernandez ($8.4M median trade value) from the #BlueJays in exchange for RHP Erik Swanson ($10.4M) and LHP Adam Macko ($5.4M).

The deal is rejected by our model as an overpay by Seattle.

The Jays now have at least 15 relievers on their 40 man roster, assuming White and Kikuchi are starters and Danner as not ready. That is probably excessive. I think Hatch, Kay and Gage are on the bubble.

Could also use excess relievers in a catcher trade as sweetner

Kikuchi will get a chance to earn a rotation spot in ST. The pen needs a good 2nd lefty IMO. Maybe Kikuchi. Kay and Gage are also lefties.

I suppose we would be happier if Teo had gone to Miami for one of their good young pitchers. Miami is still going to have to improve their O and trading a good young SP is a good way to do that.

You don't have to wait and see what they do next to evaluate this trade.

They went for "value" over quality again, period.

Morosi says they're looking at Nimmo.

They better not get outbid.

I think uo that you’re overrating a 1d OF in the last year of his contract. I think this does help a place of weakness quite well. We just need to sign a CF or get one of those Arizona options or something. I’m very curious how negotiations for Stripling are goingZ

I whole heartedly agree with the concept of this deal (i.e. reallocating your assets across different positions). Because of that, this is one rare case where you need to see what they reallocate those resources to before you judge the deal. I will say, that it reinforces the notion that Rogers will continue to run the club as a (upper) middle market club rather than the big market club it is - because if you were a big market club you have moved Gurriel Jr. out rather than Hernandez. Hernandez would certainly aid in the club winning now more than Gurriel.

first thing I saw when I scrolled the thread was your hot take Ugly, so I feared the worst, but I like this move. 

Not sure how much a prospect he is with less than 100 pro IPs, but Macko sure is a good story.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/canadian-resident-adam-macko-takes-unconventional-road-mlb/
Loved this bit:
Most kids say they want to play Division I or pro ball, and Adam told us his goal is to be a Hall of Famer," said Les McTavish, the head coach of the Vauxhall program in Alberta. "We kinda thought at the time, like ‘OK.’ This was back when he was in 10th grade
He has apparently has touched 97 and may have some helium, but the numbers dont dazzle.
As for Swanson, if he can be close to as good as he was this year going forward, win.  If not, he joins a pretty crowded mid range of guys in the pen.  His K% has actually increased as his velo has dipped, so even though the guy doesnt throw as hard as you might like, if he has made sustainable progress, this is a big win, especially if the financial savings are wisely allocated. 

I will miss Teo, he seems like one of the all-time good guys to have played on the team.  I can still recall the sounds of the last homer I heard him hit on the radio.  when he crushed a ball, it sounded crushed.  good luck in Seattle man!

The problem with Nimmo is it's Springer all over again. Not the worst problem, I admit - he's really good. But he's still a 30 year old CF and in two years you'll need to move him to a corner. Nimmo should be a little cheaper than Springer was, but not much, and he's had lots of trouble staying on the field. I'd rather chase one of those Arizona kids.

This does feel a lot like a Tampa type of trade. Deal a solid contributor for some random underrated reliever and a high ceiling prospect. We’ve seen the Rays so many of these over the years as they’ve constantly reloaded the team. Many have worked out wonderfully for them but not all. Who knows if this will but they were never going to extend Teo so glad they got something rather than lose him for nothing. Could they have got more? Maybe but I think his value was likely lower than what Jays fan thinks. Glad he was here though and I’ll continue rooting for him going forward.

I'm hoping the Jays resign Stripling if they don't have a bigger name in mind.

Macko was born in Slovakia, moved to Ireland for a year at age 11, and came to Alberta at age 12.

He made 8 starts for Everett this season, two against Vancouver, in Vancouver, #2JBrumfield might remember him.

He didn't pitch after May 21 and injuries have been an issue for him. But when he pitches he does strike out plenty but he also walks plenty. Because of the injury issues he could be a bullpen candidate.

Since Swanson started throwing his splitter two years ago he has been dominant. There was a legit change in his pitching repitoire, which explains his success after a rough couple of first years.

I agree that we need to know what the follow-up move is before we can truly assess this one. In isolation, it seems like a pretty fair deal overall. There is risk on the Jays end as they are buying high on Swanson. While his Statcast page is excellent, relievers in general are very unpredictable year to year. Regardless, I'm not sure Hernandez for one year at $14M really held that much trade value. This seems like a multi layer move designed to 1. clear some payroll, 2. balance out the lineup (safe bet that whoever they get to replace Teoscar will be LH), and improve a different position (bullpen). Now it depends on which OF they acquire.

I'd be very surprised if the jays get Nimmo.

Yeah, I'd be all in on filling the LH-CF gap with an Arizona kid and spending the $ on pitching. But that's just me.

The 2022 batted ball data on Teoscar reveals an interesting story: He couldn't hit sliders at all (.179 BA/.237 SLG) and as a result saw more sliders than ever (28%). As usual, he destroyed fastballs (.345/.733); but saw fewer than ever (26%). And this isn't new -- his entire career, except for 2021, he's been unable to hit sliders. If this trend continues, he's not going to age gracefully at the plate and probably not going to get paid highly as a FA.

The Arizona GM mentioned in his end of season presser that the team was looking to acquire catching help and Arizona does have a raft of quality young left-handed outfielders - a seeming good match with the Jays.

St Louis needs an experienced C as I have mentioned. I don't care much for their OFs either. They will have to do something. DeJong has lost the SS job to T Edman and the other IF jobs are all taken. Since I believe nobody wins/loses their job in ST this means that DeJong is on the bench or maybe given away like we got A Diaz for very little.

Wow. Not the return I would think for Teoscar. They Jays are probably being frugal again... Sigh... Are we doing that again?

Reminder to everybody that a player on an expiring contract is not worth much these days.

Did everybody forget that this team imploded due to its bullpen against the Mariners last month in the playoffs?????

This is a good trade the improves the bullpen and also brings good potential to the bullpen being elite in 8/9 role along with a high upside risky pitching prospect.

Having Swanson and a prospect in 2024 instead of no Teoscar is not Quantity over Quality, it's taking a gamble that you get the same value or more and for a longer time period. It's the type of move I applaud this front office for taking.

So far so good...so long as they address LHH and overall line up balance as well as one more SP.

He made 8 starts for Everett this season, two against Vancouver, in Vancouver, #2JBrumfield might remember him.

I made this comment in the thread above but it bears repeating.

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I saw Adam Macko pitch twice in Vancouver back in May. I had this note on him when he threw five shutout innings against the C's in which he struck out seven.

''The Slovakian-born lefty—raised in Ireland and Alberta—bamboozled Addison Barger with curveballs at 65 and 67 miles per hour before dialing it up to 94. Macko was up to 95 at one point.''

I was very impressed that I had to use the word bamboozle, a word that should only be used for the proper occasion.

https://csplusbaseball.ca/2022/05/04/cs-recap-balk-bases-loaded-walk-gives-everett-extra-inning-win-over-canadians-to-spoil-robberses-start/

C's Plus Baseball has been great reading during the off season. I like the chats. The links to other writers are also very good. Thanks Niall.