As I mentioned at the end of the Game 1 thread via the Jays website...

The lineup for potentially the final game of 2022...
CF: Springer
SS: Bichette
1B: Guerrero
DH: Kirk
RF: Hernandez
3B: Chapman
C: Jansen
LF: Merrifield
2B: not listed but I'd assume Espinal given the all RH lineup.
SP: Gausman

All vs Ray - so appropriate the $110+ million guy who left so we could sign $110+ million guy Gausman. Who wrote this script? Only way it would be better is if it was game 3.

For extra hope...
Ray the past 28 days: 889 OPS against, last 14 940, last 7 1.113. So he clearly has had issues when the pressure was on for Seattle. For the season vs RH: 236/308/431 vs LH: 212/260/387. Home: 208/266/380, Away: 262/342/480. His OPS against in high leverage is 742 vs 710 in neutral vs 731 in low.

So everything suggests today should be a good day for the Jays on offense. Lets hope.

Tbh at the time we thought it was just a CV pics on which they liked better but given Ray didn’t come to Toronto earlier this year given the regulations and such Ray was never an option.

BOLD Predictions:

Teoscar Hernández steals the show and hammers Robbie Ray to lead the Jays to game three.

Hey, remember when Charlie Montoyo sent Breyvic Valera up to pinch-bunt for Alejandro Kirk? Kevin Cash just did the same thing. In the post-season.

Didn't work for him either.

Let's have it.

Really missing the straightaway centre-field camera on the pitches today.  Can't see the break on the lefty's slider when the camera is in left-centre.

Teoscar Hernández steals the show and hammers Robbie Ray to lead the Jays to game three.

So far, so good.

Nice one dalimon5

Dalimon…LFG!

The home plate umpire is not having a very good game so far.

Teoscar tells BB flyballs are good.

It took 15 inning, but someone finally scored a run - on a home run, of course - and Tampa Bay is finished.

DALIMON….

Dalimon…buy a lottery ticket today.

Dalimon, predict more good things!

I just remember so many Robbie Ray starts where he was unhittable then in the 5th or 6th some Swiss cheese hitter with power would go yard on him. This seemed to happen nearly every start. I could see Robbie Ray Ray thinking “ok I’m through Springer, Bo, Vlad and Kirk…now I can conserve some energy … but Teoscar is the perfect hitter to sit off speed since everyone knows he destroys fastballs. By the way, Teoscar is batting .538 or something ridiculous on pitches near the middle of the plate. Tops in MLB.

At the end of every inning, Gausman takes the gum out of his mouth and throws it at the on-deck circle. He'll get himself a fresh piece for the next inning.

Baseball players are not like you and me.

The Jays have scored as many runs in this inning as Tampa Bay and Cleveland combined to score in two games and 24 innings.

Much better game than yesterday

<br>springer has not looked good today, got a little hurt earlier. No game is secure, but this would be a good time to give him a half game rest. Won't happen jnless he needs a few weeks off though.

<br>that TB / CLE game:is
19 Baserunners 39 strikeouts!
Gimenez had 5 k, 0/5 would be interesting to see if TB had a plan or a young player got a bit hyped and pressed.

if TB had a plan

Kevin Cash played for one run in the tenth inning. Scoreless game, extra innings, makes sense - except the pitching was so good (and the hitting so feeble) that no one could string any hits together to score even a single run. All the runs in the two games scored on homers, and Cash's tenth inning moves took two of his three guys - that's all they had - who had double figures in HRs this year out of the game. He pinch-ran for Choi, he pinch-bunted for Paredes. All he had after that was Arozarena.

Santana went 10-20 with 3 HR against Toronto this season.

That was maybe the worst pitching change decision I've seen in my life. Santana has a 134 WRC+ VS L and an 89 WRC+ VS r. So you went to a worse pitcher so Santana could be on his stronger side and on top of it Mayza pitched yesterday so if the jays win, he probably can't go tomorrow. Just baffling. Why????

I think Gausman would have gotten the third out there. Two of the Seattle hits were rinky-dink, and he was still pitching well enough to get the first two outs. I wish managers would go more by feel sometimes and not be a slave to the left-right thing.

I just realized that "Santana" is Spanish for "Mountcastle". How about that...

But the left right thing isn't even applicable here! Santana is WAY better against lefties. That's what's so infuriating.even if you're going to pull him, Phelps? Garcia? Not Mayza.

The left-right thing doesn't even make a whole lot of sense here. Santana's better from the right side and Mayza's much worse against righties. Just a weird move.

Mayza has not done very well with runners on base lately. He was money earlier in the year, but hasn’t been as effective in those spots in September

The left-right thing doesn't even make a whole lot of sense here.

It doesn't, but the last time the Jays saw Santana, back in July, he hit three HRs. All of them left-handed. He had just missed another one - again left-handed - by about three inches his last time up. It leaves a terrible impression on the mind.

I agree that was a terrible pitching change.

You need strikeout pitchers in the bullpen in the post season.

I predict tomorrow (if there's a tomorrow) that JBJ will be in the outfield sooner.

I hate the outfield positioning when they try to take away the alleys. That Suarez double had an expected BA of 0.40. Brutal.

0.040

Bringing in Mayza there could cost us the game, the series, and the season.

Holy F@%#

I don't like this movie.

What an unlucky inning.

Sometimes its better to be lucky than good. The Mariners have had some hits tonight that were soft or barely out of reach.

BTW, is Tapia faster than Merrifield?

Alright Guerrero. It’s time to prove you’re a superstar.

Ground ball to SS. Quel surprise.

Bo has a good attitude but it’s clear he tries to do everything himself and it leads to stupid stuff. I hope he matures a bit as he ages because forcing things and injuring your CF is not a good idea. Then again not a good idea for Springer to charge in without any backup.

ROBO UMPS (*&@(*#&$(*&*(@#&$(*@&#*($&(*@#&$(*@&#$*( NOW!!!!!!!!!

If Seattle takes the lead here, the not-so-nice part of me wants some payback by throwing at a few Mariners.. We might even get a few strikes called that way..

is Tapia faster than Merrifield?

Statcast says Merrifield is faster than everyone but Zimmer.

And no not a fan of the Jays and how they’ve done things this year life shift and pull in relievers. Not really sure what Schneider is thinking bringing in Mayza against Santana.

Wow!

Also, the jays inability to develop hard throwing relievers is baffling. Every team has like five homegrown guys who throw 98 and the Jays have one.

This feels like the Jays' version of 2013 Leafs vs. Bruins 4-1 blown lead in game 7..

Baseball always exposes your weaknesses. Bullpen was always going to be the problem. Obvious from day 1.

That was great hitting by Frazier. He singled off a fastball last inning so he was sitting on a first pitch slider this time.

Poetic that this all came from pulling the SP for no good reason, again.

Still hoping for a ninth inning rally, but if it doesn't happen, this has to be one the bigger choke jobs in baseball history....just awful.

Jimmy Garcia threw 8 pitches and was lifted for Bass. That doesn't look good right now either.

This is a fireable game by John Schieneder. Up 8-1 you should be able to navigate any bullpen. Sending Jordan Romano back out there in the 9th was something I did not agree with.

The bright side to this very dark cloud is it might result in the Jays removing the “interim” tag in front of the word manager and replacing it with “former”.

Everyone is overanalyzing things. If the Blue Jays lose this game, it was due to the gods of BABIP and sequencing and also Bass had a terrible outing.

It's happening, Tapia will be up with the season on the line.

Ramiel Tapia with the season on the line.

Perfection.

Worst.....playoff loss....ever.

Painful

It was 8-1. The Leafs are off the hook.

In 40 years of watching the Jays, that was the most demoralizing loss ever, and probably the worst choke in Toronto sports history, which takes a lot. Blame the manager, blame the FO, blame the umpire, blame the bat boy all you want. This is on the players. They choked.

Shatkins.

Shatkins.

Total crap.

Worst Jays game I remember but fitting in so many ways.
-Jays haven't developed bullpen as well as pretty much any other team in baseball and it has hurt them.
-Schneider overmanaged all season and it hurt them again (worst bullpen move of the season)
-Vlad once again looking useless when it matters. (good hitter still but man, went from looking like an all-timer to CJ Cron in one season.
-Jays ultimately losing on players trying to do everything themselves.
-Springer gets hurt and you bring in one of the worst five players in baseball to replace him.
-Tapia who played WAY too much this season majkes final out.

There need to be changes next year. LH who can play CF. Tapia gone. New manager. Trade a catcher. Maybe new GM who seems good in some ways but never seems to address obvious weaknsesses.

Well…. At least there was…. Damn I got nothing. Just…. Wow.

This is about as bad as it gets. I think there are big changes coming in the offseason... I don't think they can just merely try again next season with the same core group of players. And kudos to the Mariners for coming to Toronto getting the job done - they were the better team this weekend, no doubt in my mind.

Gosh. Clearly some folks are too young to remember the Ricciardi years.

I was fine with pulling Gausman at the time, although turning Santana around was a bad idea. The quick hook of Garcia turned out very badly, but Bass has been death to RH batters ever since he got here.

Ah, who wants to go get crushed by Houston anyway?

Did this happen in the Ricciardi years?

The only greater postseason comeback than the #Mariners today (down 8-1) was the 1929 Philadelphia #Athletics in Game 4 of the World Series when they trailed by 8 runs, per @SlangsOnSports

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) October 9, 2022

The Jays missed the playoffs by one game last year. The front office tinkered around the edges with the roster so they were marginally better this year.

It was a fun team. But a very flawed one. I have to imagine some changes forthcoming.

Seriously though, that game-tying single has to be one of my least favourite moments I’ve ever seen on a baseball field, playing or otherwise. The Mariners would’ve been kinda fun to root for…. Now I hope Houston obliterates them back into another 20 year drought.

They were obviously betting on internal progression from a fairly young squad - which they got from Manoah and Kirk, primarily - but didn’t foresee the regression from Guerrero and Bichette, pre-September. Will be curious to see what lessons they take from this when it comes to constructing next year’s roster. Assuming that players develop consistently is a mistake we all make, but one front offices cannot if they want to be playing games when it really matters.

The thing is I don’t really know what’s there for meaningful changes next year? Sure can the GM or the manager or whatever but there isn’t a ton of available moves unless they have a way bigger budget. The position players and starters are pretty much who they are. Bullpen is the biggest spot that needs help but there does not look like much close other than Pearson and maybe Zulueta/Ricky.

So I guess the questions are:
1. Managerial changes?
2. Trade a C or something for a CF so we can move Springer to the corner.
3. Resign or qualify Stripling?
4. Is Kikuchi a reliever or 5th starter again?
5. Do they think of moving Bo to 2b?

That’s about it I guess. I don’t see any big signings happening.

Does anyone know the statcast catch percentage on the Tapia almost catch?

Did this happen in the Ricciardi years?

Of course not. His teams never sniffed the post-season. Did you like that better?

Fun fact. Before today, the 2022 Blue Jays were 26-0 when they scored at least 8 runs.

I was just coming on to say Magpie cursed us with the line about the Jays being undefeated when scoring 8 runs!


From yesterday’s thread:
The offense isn't quite as cut and dried, but they never win when they don't score at all (0-8) and they never lose when they score at least 8 (26-0).

Magpie cursed us

You don't know the half of it. I've been polishing the Annual Report Card, and when selecting a day for it to go live, I thoughtlessly picked the day after the last World Series game. Luis Castillo quickly demonstrated just how foolish and presumptuous that was of me, and while I hastily amended the schedule...

This is all my fault, I fear.

And here's a grim coincidence. This was the third time a Blue Jay hit two HRs in a post-season game:

Jose Bautista against KC, Game 6 2015
Danny Jansen against TB, Game 2 2020
Teoscar Hernandez against Seattle, Game 2 2022

Pretty easy to see what those game all have in common.

Yeah, when Buck mentioned that the other two games had been losing causes, I felt a lump in my throat.

Tim Mayza vs Aaron Judge was a worse bullpen move.

<br>Magpie cursed us

You don't know the half of it.

Sorry if I did anything talking about insecure leads.

Anyway, I think Glevins post earlier is pretry close to my thoughts.

So I guess the questions are:
1. Managerial changes?
2. Trade a C or something for a CF so we can move Springer to the corner.
3. Resign or qualify Stripling?
4. Is Kikuchi a reliever or 5th starter again?
5. Do they think of moving Bo to 2b?

Those are good questions, and I'll take a swing at them.

1. They played .622 ball for Schneider. That's better than they've played for anyone in franchise history. So probably not.
2. A good idea in principle, but I think you'd also be wanting to include one of the RH outfielders while you're at it - for one thing, you need to create a spot for the guy to play. If the price is Moreno and Gurriel, that's the price you have to pay if the return is what you want.
3. They only have three starters - Manoah, Gausman, Berrios - carved in stone for next year. I would assume they'll qualify Stripling and try to re-sign him.
4. No one knows. Certainly no one is going to count on him.
5. Only if you have a very good reason, like a Gold Glove shortstop suddenly coming to town. There isn't one in the house.

Getting that message eating rhing happening can't post in reply or quote from my phone

Reasonable answers. I don’t know how they’re going to make this bullpen elite with what they have right now. And going FA for relievers generally isn’t a good idea. I feel Atkins has done a fairly good job building a team but the inability to get top line relievers is a real downfall of this team. I have hopes Pearson can step in but other than that not seeing much.

I do hope Bo matures a bit this offseason after so many of his stupid aggressive defensive moves. I like how he gets to balls but that doesn’t mean he has to be reckless getting there or make bad throws to force something. Hopefully him and Vlad mature some this offseason and improve their game.

So I looked at Statcast. The Raleigh hit to Tapia in the sixth had an expected BA of .270, which means 73% of the time its an out. I don't know if Statcast accounts for fielder positioning.

The bloop into the triangle in the eighth had an expected BA of .550, or 45% of the time its an out.

Long, long post coming...

Well, painful and time for over-analysis to begin. So now the demands of redoing the entire pen, firing the manager, trading Vlad for lack of clutch hitting, and that they need to sign Aaron Judge, Jacob deGrom, and Trea Turner while moving Bo to CF or something. Oh yeah, and sign Edwin Díaz to close now that Romano had a bad game in the playoffs (which would've been good if Springer was playing a few feet more in and Bo didn't run out at full speed into him).

Phew. So many things to change on a 92 win team which in a traditional 7 game series would be down 2-0 and in trouble but not dead in the water (KC came back from that in 1985 to beat the Jays then for example).

Realistically we had a few really odd things happen - shut out in game 1, then scoring 9 in game 2. Blowing a 7 run lead for the first time this year. 2 players injured in one game. Sometimes crap happens. I figure the players will have learned and be hungrier next year and more ready for the playoffs. Nothing matches being in that pressure cooker.

So back to speculation about a trade with Arizona for a LH CF in exchange for a C. I suspect Gurriel is higher on the trade list than Hernandez for the Jays after his solid performance today. I don't think the Jays are at the 1990 level where they feel this is as far as this group will go so we need to blow it up (after 1990 they cleared out a lot of the '83-90 team - McGriff/Fernandez for Alomar/Carter, Felix for White, George Bell left via free agency, as did starting CF Mookie Wilson, rookie Juan Guzman came out of nowhere to dominate, rookie Mike Timlin did well in a setup role - that covers most of the changes for a team that won 86, the division the year before, that then went to win the division 3 straight years plus 2 WS titles (and had TONS of other changes). Change is a constant in baseball and is often vital to keep the hunger needed to win.

Btw, final post season stats for the Jays are on MLB.com now 800+ OPS+ (woohoo) for Hernandez (250/333/1000), Chapman (429/444/571), Kirk (375/444/500), Jansen (375/375/500). 600-799 (meh): Bo (250/333/375), Springer (286/375/286). Sub 600 (ugh): Merrifield (200/333/200), Vlad (125/222/125 - 1 for 8), Tapia (0 for 6, no walks).

Pitchers: ERA over 5: Gausman (thanks Mayza), Manoah, Mayza, Romano (10.80). 0's for Cimber, Garcia, Richards, Pop. Infinity for Bass (3 batters faced, all scored).

Am I worried about Bass and Romano after today? No. They had a bad day, crap happens. Sadly it happened on the worst possible day. Mayza is a decent reliever but not a super one, same for the rest of them. Gausman & Manoah will be fine next year. Today was a classic 2022 Gausman start - 5 H 1 BB but 4 R - everything piled on at once. If his luck wasn't horrid he wouldn't have any.

I see this offseason as having a few big decisions...

1. Starting pitching - Stripling a free agent - do you resign him? At what price limit (3/$15 would be my max)? Do you sign another starter? High end/mid level/reclamation project? Do you work out Kikuchi and White as starters planning on them fighting for #5/6 slots or do you sign enough guys to push them to the pen or #7/8?
2. Bullpen: we have a LOT of decent guys, but Romano is the only 'ace' level guy. Bass & Garcia are solid. The rest are good but not great. But pens are crapshoots often so how to deal with it? I'm thinking Kikuchi might be the LH pitcher we really need after his final few games - might have been the right choice today but I can imagine the heads blowing up if he was used and did what Mayza did.
3. Hitters: CF is an issue, Tapia/Zimmer/JBJ are NOT the answer outside of the last 2 for late inning defense/running. How to deal?
4. Do you sign Hernandez/Gurriel/Chapman long term or trade them or keep them until they can walk after 2023?
5. 2B: who is in what role? Merrifield is probably the best overall player (3.6 WAR in 2021, but just 0.1 this year), Espinal has done everything possible to earn it (2.5 WAR in 2021, 2.2 this year), Biggio has talent (WAR of 3.0 in 2019, 2.1 in 2020, 0.4 in 2021, 0.7 this year, average of 3.0 per 162 games) and as a LH hitter is quite useful for days off plus can fill in all over the place.
6. Catcher: we have 3 starting quality guys in Kirk, Jansen, and Moreno - all of whom might be all-stars if given the playing time. A VERY nice problem to have. I figure Moreno or Jansen is most likely to be traded depending on which can get whatever the Jays want the most.
7. Do you sign Bo or Vlad long term this winter? If so for how much?

So what do the Jays do? I expect them to talk with Stripling right away about a deal to see what he is after and if he will sign cheaply or not. If he can be signed quick and cheap (3 at $10 per) they'll do it. If not he goes to free agency. If he signs great, that is it for starting pitching this winter with #5 being a battle between Kikuchi/White and kids in the minors with some reclamation projects signed to help out (at a low price). The pen will be as always, chase bargains with good arms this winter, see if a quality guy will sign cheap, but I hope they work on converting some failed starters in the minors to relievers with live arms. CF will be mixed in with 2B/C/OF as a trade to improve it - I'm expecting a deal with Arizona, maybe involving Jansen & Gurriel & Espinal or Merrifield (they are LH heavy) as the fit is just too perfect. 2B might be solved there, if not they can carry all 3 easily. Chapman they are probably going to try to sign for a couple more years unless the minor leaguers they see as being more ready that I see them. I wouldn't be surprised if Vlad is signed to a long term deal, but Bo I think wants to go to free agency and push records although seeing the mess with the glut of SS's the past winter and this upcoming one might help getting him to sign.

Schneider was somewhat defiant in the post game interview, said he wouldn't second guess himself. Regarding the Mayza decision he said they brought Mayza in because he keeps the ball in the park. I looked it up, 5 home runs allowed to right handed hitters in 26 innings this year. That's not keeping it in the park.

I don't know if anybody watched the postgame show but both Joe Siddall and Caleb Joseph thought taking out Gausman was a poor decision considering his pitches were still working. At the very least, as Joseph said, put in Garcia or Cimber, not Mayza who gets lit up by right-handed batters. I do like John Schneider, but it's too bad he made his most boneheaded pitching move of the season in an important playoff game.

Why did Tapia come into the game for defense with the Jays up 7 runs? It was just too perfect that he comes up with 2 outs in the 9th and the Jays have nobody to PH for him.

Schneider's horrendous management of this game led to poor execution by his players.

I believe that in their history, only three times have the Jays hired someone who'd previously managed in the majors, and two of those (Gaston and Gibby) were the second time with the Jays (the other was Jim Fregosi). It might be time to try something else

Kasi - don't know how I missed your 5 issues before typing out my looooong post. I see the manager change idea as being a fan issue after today. One game doesn't decide if you are going to keep or dump a manager unless you are a terribly run team. I'd be shocked if Schneider isn't manager next year unless someone else was their #1 choice and wasn't available in-season but I can't imagine who that'd be. Joe Maddon? Joe Girardi? Mike Matheny? All had some success but I think our current manager is probably the best for the team we've got.

Stripling we all enjoyed, and yeah I got caught up on the hype but lets take a colder look at him - career 109 ERA+ (split pen/starting), had a great year but this is his peak 129 ERA+ over 134 innings/24 starts/6 relief games entering his age 33 season. Last year he had a 93 ERA+ and was in/out/in/out of the rotation iirc (a yo-yo). That isn't getting a $50 million+ deal, and probably not a 3 year one at $15+ per.

Kikuchi (and White) are obvious imo - they will be fighting for the 5th/6th starter roles with prospects and any reclamation projects the Jays sign. Neither will be handed a starting job, they will need to earn it baring injuries in spring.

Bo isn't moving to 2B. If he is moved it would be to CF ala Robin Yount. The Jays aren't going to spend $30+ per to sign a top free agent SS this winter as 2B is in good shape with the 3 guys we have already. Lots of other areas to get more bang for the buck in upgrades.

Why did Tapia come into the game for defense with the Jays up 7 runs?

I thought he came into the game because Merrifield had just taken a baseball to the helmet.

Merrifield stayed in the game to run, if it was serious he should've been pulled immediately. And you still bring in Bradley, not Tapia, for defense. If you're worried about him in LF just slide Hernandez over.

I've said before that the Jays should not just hand Schneider a spot in 2023. Do a real search and find the best candidate. However, after today when he took Gausman out and brought in Mayza when every stat suggested that was a bad idea? Find someone else. Call it reactionary, and it probably is, but that was one of the worst calls I have seen a manager do in a long time. It wasn't a good move that didn't work. It was bad in every conceivable way.

Horrible way to end the season, and I agree, I don't know what major changes, if any, the team can/will make barring a FO change. They'll make some minor changes and hope to have better luck next year, for better or worse.

He might be a nice guy, but Mitch White, he of middling stuff and a 7.74 ERA with the Jays, should not be considered as a 5th/6th starter in 2023.

The bullpen was really solid during Schneider's tenure. Bad time have a massive fail. More s/o arms are needed. Betting on Pearson's health is a risky one.

Fact is, almost all of Shatkins' big time acquisitions have been worse to much worse than advertised: from Ryu to Kikuchi, from Berrios to yes, Springer. GM should be on the hotseat now, much like the Leafs' kid. At least some of us have a promising Raptors season to look forward to, with proven management.

Madani said in the post-game that Bass didn't get up in the pen until the Jays scored the add-on (9th) run in bottom-7th to go up by 4.
Romano had already been up.
Previous plan with 3-run lead was presumably either to start the 8th with Garcia (who had thrown 8 pitches today, 6 pitches yesterday),
or to start the 8th with Romano.

I think the positioning of the outfielders was a far bigger problem than which ones were out there. I don't necessarily want to stick up for the Designated Scapegoat but I don't know if any of the alternatives are that much faster - not enough to make a difference on the Raleigh or Suarez hits, especially with the glove on the other hand.

I don't know what major changes, if any, the team can/will make barring a FO change

That would be surprising after consecutive 90 win seasons for the first time in 30 years. But I don't recommend running it back again. I've seen that movie. Pat Gillick ran it back after they blew the 3-1 lead against the Royals in 1985. He ran it back again after they lost the last seven games, and the division, of the 1987 season. Both times the team came out and played the next season as if they were still dazed and confused from the whole experience. Now if they were dumb enough to put me in charge... obviously I'm looking for pitching - two starters. Some relievers who throw as hard as Merryweather but can actually get people out would be comforting. But I would really like to remake the outfield - as John keeps saying, a LH guy to put in CF would be ideal. But just because it's what you want doesn't mean you can make it happen. You can't always get what you want.

That sounds like a song...

jjdynomite - yeah, the current GM has done so horribly - 100% turnover since the 2016 team and they only won 92 this year after 91 last year and making the playoffs in the weird 2020 season. No playoff wins but then again same for Tampa Bay this fall and maybe the same for the Cardinals (down 2-0 as I type) while the 101 win Mets could be eliminated as well (leading right now but we all know how that is no lock).

Guys they got? Everyone on the roster outside of Vlad (signed by AA the year before they came in), Ryu was vital to the 2020 team making the playoffs, and solid in 2021 and probably wouldn't have signed without that 4th year which is a 100% loss it looks like, but he also has been sitting with Manoah a LOT and teaching him so there is still some value. Springer we'd have been nowhere near the playoffs without. You don't mention signing Gausman over Ray last winter which looked solid all year and even better today. Kikuchi I'll give you but I know I was in favor of it as a 5th starter why not I figured. Ah well.

Raptors? But they lost in the first round last year, and missed the playoffs the year before! What a bum - they should dump that GM now. /sarcasm

The Leafs have operated that way for years - dumping GM's and coaches as fast as possible. Since dumping Pat Quinn after 1 year of missing the playoffs (2005-6) they have churned through 6 head coaches in 16 years. Babcock universally seen as a great one to get was dumped after 4 1/2 years. If they fail in round 1 again I expect Keefe to be dumped too. Not a recipe for success.

Mitch White is a 6th starter like Stripling was (Striplings 24 starts this year were his most ever). White needs time - I'd make him the long man to start 2023 and keep him ready to fill in ala Stripling in 2022/21/20 here. Might take awhile for him to develop but 8th man in the pen might be good for him. Kikuchi I see as a short LH power arm that we've dreamed of here lately - he finally seemed to be getting confidence at the end so maybe in 2023 he can settle into that role and if needed be used as an emergency starter.

FYI: read online that Gausman and Vlad were the last to leave the dugout. I suspect both feel they should've been able to stop this from happening and hopefully go into the winter determined to get this team much further next year. A Vlad on a mission is fun (see 2021).

There is still much to like about this roster going forward. There is much more good than bad - that’s how you win 90 games back to back. But the roster is flawed. The frustrating part is that the flaws are still the same as last year. The lineup needs a bit more balance (not just L/R but in offensive approach) and the bullpen needs more high leverage, swing and miss arms. These have been the issues for a couple of years. Time to fix them.

But the roster is flawed.

Of course, but which roster isn't? If the Jays traded Tapia himself straight up for the Dodgers' left fielder (or centre fielder) - it would improve the Dodgers, not the Jays.

But as I said, I think running it back with this lineup of position players is not the best way to go.

The good news is the team is still fairly young and just 1 key player is a free agent (Stripling). Springer is the only hitter on the wrong side of 30 already which means the offense should be fine next year, maybe even better even if they don't make any changes. The rotation has Manoah (24), Berrios (28) on the right side of 30, but Gausman is 31, Stripling 32, Kikuchi 31 (and probably in the pen), White is 27 but needs to get better in relief before being handed a starting job. Romano still on the right side of 30. But Phelps is probably retiring at 35.

So the pitching is old, the lineup in their primes, a kid ready to step in - Moreno, while Lopez shows hope of being able to be a solid utility guy at least. My hope is they find a solid LH reliever who can be counted on more than Mayza can be, and get that LH CF so Springer can move to RF and one of Hernandez or Gurriel can be traded for whatever. The rest will sort itself out I figure.

The loss today definitely sucked.

The pitching management was definitely sub-par. Even the ESPN commentators were commenting on it being a bad idea to switch the side before the key hit.

All that said, the team is never as bad as it seems after a loss and this is still a very solid core. They need 1-2 quality starting pitchers (not counting Stripling) and improvements in the bullpen. And it wouldn't hurt to have another quality outfielder (of course Judge would be the dream, but really a better 4th outfielder who could cover center would be enough).

The Mariners deserved to beat us because they made the bold deadline move to try and win and we chickened out.

This series couldn't have illustrated it more perfectly.

So we deserved better last year since we made a bold move and others chickened out? You can’t make huge deadline trades every year. Doesn’t really make much sense. They deserved to beat us because their bullpen is superior and that’s pretty much it. They need to fix that.

We deserved the post deadline run we made last year, yes.

Deserved it last year? Because they made a big trade?

What utter nonsense.

Well said.

Very well said.

Yeah such nonsense when a team is rewarded for actually trying to win.

Total nonsense.

I’m with Nigel and Northey on next steps Re: roster.

I also think they need bring in several new bodies for AAA as depth. Literally all of those guys failed this year, for one reason or another. They can’t rely on Kay or Hatch et al to be reliable depth next season.

I hope they also do a dive into their data analysis and reliance on it. I believe Schneider’s decision to pull Gausman was heavily reliant on the pre-game strategizing they do, and it’s hard for me to grasp how a system that tells you to pull your second best starter for your 5th best reliever in a high leverage situation can be seen as objectively strong.

So the Jays have lost five straight playoff games and are 1-8 in their last 9. (I don't think this is meaningful for anything other than the fan experience)

Yeah such nonsense when a team is rewarded for actually trying to win.

You can't make a trade just because you want to. It doesn't matter how long you hold your breath or stamp your little feet. You can only make a deal with someone else who actually wants something you can provide.

I did have a bold idea - Alejandro Kirk for Pablo Lopez. Bold enough for you? Because now I think it would have been a mistake.

it’s hard for me to grasp how a system that tells you to pull your second best starter for your 5th best reliever in a high leverage situation can be seen as objectively strong.

I thought Schneider said something about groundballs with respect to bringing in Mayza. That also sounds screwy. Mayza gets more groundballs than anyone else - but who cares? There were already two outs.

He would stop getting playing time, they said.

https://twitter.com/DownToBlack/status/1578926015174569984

Both Gausman and Ray had good years. Gausman a #1 3-3.5 Era. Ray #2 3.5-4 Era. Morton in Atlanta #3 4-4.5 Era. Berrios underperformed this year as a #5 5+ Era but 172IP. He usually has a #2 3.5-4 Era. Strippling almost an Ace Under 3 Era (actual 3.01 most likely a career year).

92 wins is good. 1 more year of experience for a young team. The pen on paper is strong but some adds will be useful. Manoah, Gausman and Berrios should be a solid top 3. I doubt they can add another proven reliable #2. A surprise is possible like Matz last year. Kikuchi and others will get a shot at earning a spot in the rotation. The pitching on the farm is improving so there is a good chance that someone can earn a promotion and run with it as the year progresses. Our top pitching prospects should get to AA/AAA like Tiedemann, Zuluetta, Robberse and Juenger with a chance to dominate. Only Zulueta would be on the 40 man roster next year.

We lost a lot this year by Ryu, Berrios and Kikuchi being injured and ineffective. It is always better to have more possibilities. Of course 2 hits on 5 is better than 0 on 8.

I would have liked a better deal at the deadline but it was clear the asks were insane based on how many pending free agents didn't get moved. Bigger issue to me was not addressing needs long-term. Sometimes I feel the fo is trying to be too clever. Everyone going 100 MPh relievers, let's go spin rate as undervalued but teams are often doing a thing because it's better. I really wonder if there's a worse team in baseball at developing hard throwing relievers. Jays need to replace or resign Stripling, get another competitor for fifty starter, need to trade a catcher for a position if need, need a backend K guy for bullpen, and need a LH OFer and could use an upgrade at 2B. I would move on from Schneider myself but jays probably won't. I'd also definitely get a new hitting coach.

Ages Next Year

* Springer 33
* Bichette 25
* Guerrero 24
* Kirk 24
* Teoscar 30
* Chapman 30
* Gurriel 29
* Jansen 28
* Espinal 28

* Biggio 28
* Tapia 29
* Merrifield 34
* Moreno 23


* Manoah 25
* Gausman 32
* Berrios 29
* Stripling 33
* Ryu 36

* Romano 30
* Bass 34
* Cimber 32
* Garcia 32
* Mayza 31
* Phelps 36
* Richards 30
* Pop 26

L Castillo is having a great year. 2.99 Era is Ace by my evaluation but only 150IP. 85 IP in the NL Central.

Manoah 2.24 ERA 196IP in the AL East. 1 playoff game against each other only says that Castillo was having a hell of a start. That was game 1 loss. Game 2 loss had many Seattle hits finding good places to land. Also Gausman had a no hitter through 4 innings I think. It is not everyday that players hit each other in the OF resulting in both on the ground for a long time. I don't see how anyone can plan for that.

The reliever issue is a challenging one. The Jays’ plan to build a pen has some merit for the regular season. They have used relatively few resources (picks, prospects, cash) to build a functional pen. As you say, they’ve leaned in to some alternative pitching types and have found some cheapish, functional middle leverage arms who have, for the most part stayed healthy (not to be overlooked is the attrition rate of 15 pitch at a time 100mph relievers). But, in my view, that isn’t the best pen for playoff baseball. High k rate relievers allow you to avoid the bad luck that can happen with BABIP. For me it’s about balance. Spend some resources and get some swing and miss to balance out the current approach. I think management has been too cute in this issue.

Tapia's defense does make one wonder "what if" - a healthy Gurriel probably makes at least 1 of those plays (he loves to go for it) but 1 might have completely got away from him too. Could he have come up with a big hit? Maybe. IMO a priority has to be upgrading the outfield somehow which either will be a big trade or a holy crap free agent. I really don't want to see Tapia play here next year. He is like the guy he was traded for - good enough to make the manager think he helps but not good enough to really help.

Tapia was essentially a starting OFer who is replacement level. Easiest place to upgrade I think. Having Tapia, Zimmer, and JBJ on the roster was crazy. Merrifield can be fifth OFer/part-time 2B but Jays need someone who can play every day. Nimmo would be ideal but lots of OFers who can play like Gallo, Benitendi, conforto, Hanniger, etc...

Ugly,

I'm tracking your posts...I see your still adamant about picking on the #9 player on the roster. How did that "core player" with 80 grade hit tool do in the post season? He sure showed up to carry this team.

I'll also bookmark your ridiculous posts about the Jays wanting to win less because they didn't trade Tiedeman or Moreno. Let's see how much food you can cough up when we have these two in 2023.

It's also kinda funny how a former top prospect gets shipped out for bullpen help because his power disappears but when Vlad loses his power and chases pitches it's just a bump in the road as he ascends to greatness. How many chances is this guy going to get before he's exposed as a hitter closer to Delmon Young than Miguel Cabrera?

.680 OPS for Vlad in September and it only went down in October. Put up or shut up.

Dalimon I think you're fighting straw men here. Vlad is a very good hitter. I don't see him getting a pass or being treated as Trout. He had a disappointing season but is not the problem. I don't know what more you want?

I think a healthy Vlad with 600+ ABs next year will answer questions about how good he is. Avg, bb/k and power. Of course others will have to also contribute.

Paul, VGJ's arrogance is not good. It's not "my house"; it's "our house". Pace Madness. Better to let your bat do the talking.

By the way, some people have said that only one run would have scored on Crawford 's pop into the triangle had it not been for the collision. There were two out and 2 runs would have scored regardless, it seems to me.

I guess what I don't see is this - what's the solution? For all the complaints about home run jackets and having fun, the Mariners do the exact same thing and are getting credit for it today. I don't understand why hitting a walk off and celebrating is a negative. Most athletes aren't Kawhi Leonard.

Paul I have no issue with having fun or even Vlad. He is a very good player. My biggest gripe is with posters reverting to east targets like Tapia, Kikuchi or the front office but they never, ever dare to criticize Vlad who time and time again has been treated with white gloves, hits in the best spots and has not demonstrated an ability to be treated better than players like Springer or now Bichette. This guy gets way too much of a pass and needs to take some criticism.

Last night while addressing the media he said something to the effect of “the other team just beat us and I trust the front office to address that.” Dude went 1 for 8 I think and pooped the bed in September. This team doesn’t make the playoffs without Bo Bichette this year.

I don’t want to hear about Tapia batting 7th and not getting it done. I want to know why Vlad is batting 2nd and grounding into double plays. Why is he chasing. Why is he driving the ball down? Why is this team built around this guy after 1 good season batting half his games in minor league parks? How come Teoscar is called out and gets benched when he makes a mistake but Vlad doesn’t? Why does Teoscar need to show up in the playoffs but if Vlad doesn’t nobody criticizes him? It’s very irritating.

I think the reason for that is primarily because "sign Kiermaier and an elite reliever" is actionalble, while "Vlad get better" isn't.

I see what you're saying about sitting Vlad versus Hernandez, and yes Vlad probably needs to be talked to about hustling

Hey dalimon go ahead, trade vlad and see where it gets us.

Ugly,

can you show me where dalimon said he wanted to trade Vlad?

Yes I don’t want to trade Vlad, just want him treated like a top 5 player on the team instead of the #1.

I understand the idea of criticizing Tapia because it’s easier to do than making Vlad better. Makes sense to me.

Celebrating with one's teammates after a victory is great. A game-winning hit, a single, in a regular season game yet, is not the occasion for chest-beating and making it about oneself.

He's also probably hurt his standing by vociferously arguing ball/strike calls that were pretty clearly correct.

Every team has negative bats at the bottom of their lineup. Look at the Yanks, Rays, Mariners heck most any non Dodgers team. Now sure we would like those negative bats to have more defensive value than Tapia or Whit. Actually if you look at our lineup we are deeper than about anyone with more 120 WRC bats than anyone. However we don’t have that impact 150 bat like Rodriguez or Ramirez. We though that guy was Vlad but it’s unsure if he is now. A 125-130 WRC Vlad is a fine thing to have but really not worth investing in. It’s only if he gets up to that 150 that it’s interesting.

OK so he doesn't want to trade Vlad he just wants us to treat him with with less respect?

Just wants to lay the blame for our season on our best and youngest and cheapest hitter?

I did notice that Vlad had the lowest Blue Jay batting average in the two games. He was 1-8. It is a very small sample size.

Do you remember in the late innings (8th) yesterday Bo stole second and Seattle decided not to put Vlad on but to pitch to him rather than try and get a double play out of Kirk. That said a lot to me. And it worked for Seattle, ground ball to short.

Our poor FO was sabotaged by their youngest and best hitter they inherited making $7.9m this year.

Life's just unfair.

Vlad was pretty bad the last six weeks or so. It’s clear he has a lot of holes in his game. Massive ground ball rate has to come down. It’s lucky he still has elite bat speed since without it he would really come down to earth. And yeah Vlad has more expectations on him from who his dad is and what his last year was. He clearly didn’t live up to it this year but maybe next year he rebounds. But I think it is pretty clear that the Jays treat Bo and Vlad with kid gloves probably since they’re afraid of their extension deals. I honestly don’t know what is do with them if I were the Jays. Maybe try to extend Vlad and hope he bounced back and you can resign him for cheaper? Could you do a trade akin to Julio’s where it has opt outs for both team and player?

That’s kinda a problem UO when your 2.8 WAR hitter with a 53% ground ball rate is your “best” hitter. If Vlad is a 3 WAR guy now instead of 5+ we’ll that’s pretty sucky. He plays in a bat first position so it’s expected he can actually hit better than those who can actually field important positions. No one is excited about a 1b with his line from this season. Next year will be big to show he can actually adjust his game.

Two posts up I meant extension similar to Julio’s. I really wonder what’s going to happen with those two and Teoscars extensions.

then the problem is that the FO in 8 years has been unable to add a better hitter than that "unexciting hitter" that they inherited and who costs them peanuts.

Paul Goldschmidt hit .245/.333/.383 with 2 HRs in September and went 0-7 against the Phillies. These things just happen. It sucks when it happens to your team, but if you make a mountain out of a molehill, the damn moles just eat you alive. (Because you've made them the size of elephants.)

Well he’s certainly not going to cost them peanuts next year. And I will argue that they already have and his name is Kirk. I think Kirk just got worn down this year by first full year and demands of playing catcher. He hit way worse in the second half (then again so did Vlad) But I think next year Kirk will still be better than Vlad. Anyway the FO got Springer and Bo and Teoscar who have all been good or good++ (but not great). They have a bunch of above average hitters they just don’t currently have any elite hitters.

He hit way worse in the second half (then again so did Vlad)

Kirk         G  GS   PA    AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS    
1st Half    83  71  306   267  45  84  13   0  11   37   0   0  33  29  .315  .395  .487  .882    
2nd Half    56  52  235   203  14  50   6   0   3   26   0   0  30  29  .246  .340  .320  .661    

Guerrero    G   GS   PA    AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO    BA   OBP   SLG   OPS    
1st Half   92   90  396   351  51  95  15   0  20   57   0   1  38  69  .271  .346  .484  .830
2nd Half   68   68  310   287  39  80  20   0  12   40   8   2  20  47  .279  .329  .474  .803

Do you remember in the late innings (8th) yesterday Bo stole second and Seattle decided not to put Vlad on but to pitch to him rather than try and get a double play out of Kirk.

I did notice that. I also noticed how actually giving Guerrero the intentional walk to set up the DP (runners on second and third, one out) had worked out for the Mariners three innings earlier.

Ugly,

Every time someone criticizes or points out factual numbers about Vlad you respond with repetitive comments summarizing how he’s the best hitter in the team and extremely cheap. Perhaps my issue is not Vlad as much as the fans who fail to see past the mirage of superstar Vlad. You’re exhibit A.

He’s at the same level or worse in my books as Teoscar, Bo, Springer and Chapman if you include defence.

I have no proof but I think Bo is sick of Vlad forcing himself as the “team leader” and is one of the reasons there seems to be reported tension. Between Bo and the FO.

I don't think there's much reason to expect big changes to be made, nor do I expect to see this admin zig while others zag. Shapiro's acumen (i think) reflects his educational background. They trust and use the status quo expertise of the day.

The team will most likely be in the mix again next year even if they do nothing from now until opening day (let's not forget that most pundits had them walking away with the division this year). Regression (both positive and negative) should keep them in the playoff picture barring health issues (which I think are the biggest risk).

I agree with the widely professed sentiment here that Vlad's attitude is grating, and when there were rumours of a "franchise altering trade" in the works last spring, it made me think that either he or Bo (or both?) might be on the move. As a child I was a fan of Gillick's trading the crime dog - but I remember it being widely panned outside of the bill james set at the time. To clarify: i don't think they ought to attempt to trade vlad or bo, but if top 10 players in the mlb (like soto and ohtani) are available, then these are paths that if nothing else, are fun (at least to me) to consider. i'm not convinced that this front office or ownership thinks that way; but i'm also fine with that being a philosophic difference. the expanded playoffs and less UNbalanced schedule will aid the blue jays and their current technocratic approach more than any team I can think of (in terms of getting them to where they just made it).

Is Vlad an illusion?

Age 23 or younger: 7 qualified for the batting title, so lets adjust to 300+ PA now up to 25 players. Vlad is #5 among those for wRC+ (132 vs Julio Rodriguez 146 with Juan Soto, Andres Gimenez, and Michael Harris II between them). Kirk is #6 with his 129. Just 13 had an wRC+ of 100 or better.

Ah you say, but selective endpoint to maximize Vlad value. So lets use 25 and under. 68 players then, Vlad drops to #11 with Yordan Alvarez #1 at 185. Bo is tied at #14 with 129 with Kirk and a few others (Kyle Tucker & Brendan Donovan).

Lets remove the age factor - still 300+ PA - Vlad is now tied for #36 with Springer and Rizzo.

Btw, mega rookie Adley Rutschman is older than Vlad & Kirk at 24.

So what does this mean? IMO Vlad is still a mega prospect. If he was in AAA right now and came up next year he'd be at the same stage as Rutschman. Instead he has playoff experience and a few years of dealing with expectations and having to perform in the majors. Same for Kirk. I like that. There is growth possible in both. I like where the Jays are at going forward.

Every team has negative bats at the bottom of their lineup. Look at the Yanks, Rays, Mariners

Heck, the Mariners had them in the middle of their lineup too.