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Game Threads Toronto at Baltimore, October 3-5
The Blue Jays are certainly going to the post-season. Who they play, and where, remains to be determined.


Three possibilities remain. The Jays have 90 wins with three games remaining; Seattle has 87 wins, with four left to play; Tampa Bay has 86 wins with three to play.

If Toronto wins two of the three games with Baltimore, it doesn't matter what the Mariners do. Even if Seattle won all four of their games with Detroit, Toronto would still host Seattle in the Wild Card series. Tampa Bay would be off to Cleveland.

But if the Blue Jays win just one of their three remaining games, Seattle can catch them. They would have to run the table but the Mariners will be playing at home, against a team that's already lost 93 games, whose starting rotation resembles a MASH unit. And all Seattle has to do is tie the Blue Jays because they already hold the tie-breaker. In which case, Seattle would host Toronto. Similarly, if the Jays get swept by the Orioles, Seattle will catch Toronto by winning three of their four games with Detroit. And again, Seattle would host the Blue Jays. And Tampa Bay goes to Cleveland.

But if Seattle wins just two of their four games with Detroit, the Jays are home free. And if Seattle win just twice against Detroit while Tampa Bay sweeps their series with Boston (or if Seattle wins just once while Tampa Bay wins twice, or whatever it takes for the Rays to catch the Mariners) - if that happens, and Seattle and Tampa Bay finish with the same record, then the Jays would host Tampa Bay in the Wild Card series, while Seattle goes off to Cleveland. Tampa Bay holds the tie-breaker over the Mariners.

Incidentally, the two hottest teams in the AL right now, having won 10 of their last 12 games, are the Cleveland Guardians and... the Detroit Tigers, MASH unit rotation and all.

The solution, as always - just win, baby.

Or you could look at the ERAs of the pitchers the Jays will send out to accomplish this mission. And be afraid. Be very afraid.

Matchups!

Mon 3 Oct - Berrios (11-7, 5.37) - Kremer (8-6, 3.17)
Tue 4 Oct - White (1-6, 5.21) - Baumann (1-3, 4.34)
Wed 5 Oct - Kikuchi ? (5-7, 5.27) - Lyles (12-11, 4.42)

Posted by Magpie on Monday, October 03 2022 @ 08:00 AM EDT.
Toronto at Baltimore, October 3-5 | 159 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Gerry - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#423126) #
I think weather could play a part. Rain in the forecast for the next three days.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#423127) #
The Orioles are interesting.
Their payroll is only 63M of which 26M are pocketed by Chris Davis and 3M more are going to John Means who has been injured all year. Lyles makes 7M and the rest are all under 1M.

Given that Tampa's payroll is around 90M and Davis is off the books next year, Baltimore has the budget to sign an ace and a couple of All-Stars to plug the holes.
In reality, Means should be back next year and they have another pitching prospect, Rodriguez, who will probably be given a rotation spot.
I don't foresee them spending until the revenues are significantly up, but it probably helps them that Washington is in for a long rebuild.

[ Reply to This ]
electric carrot - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#423129) #
These pitching matchups don't look great. We may need to rely on the resurgent slugging of Teo, Bichette and Merrifield. And can we hope for Vlad Jr. to get back in a groove?
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Kasi - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#423130) #
Crazy to think that Vlad might finish sixth on this team in WRC+ which would be crazy. He’s already lost to Jansen and Springer. He’s a couple behind Kirk. He’s basically tied with Teo and Bo. Those two have a good series and Vlad does his usual second half crap and he could finish sixth. Pretty disappointing season for him.
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Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 11:37 AM EDT (#423131) #
Vlad does his usual second half crap

Not sure which word is operating under more strain - is it "usual" or "crap"?
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pooks137 - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#423132) #
The final week of the season really shows the difference that shrinking September rosters from 40 to 28 makes.

Even if the Jays clinch HFA before Wed, they simply don't have enough roster spots at present to have a few Casey Lawrence types called up to soak up some meaningless innings in order to rest the bullpen before Friday.

[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 12:12 PM EDT (#423133) #
I've only given two position players derogatory nicknames this year - "Walk of the Month Club" Tapia and "Pound the Ground" Vladdy.

133 qualified hitters so far. Only 2 have a lower launch angle than Vlad's 4.1. That's ridiculous for a guy with 80 raw. He really, really needs a proper hitting coach.
[ Reply to This ]
Kasi - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#423135) #
I just meant in relation to this year as in hitting an incredible amount of double plays and ground balls in general. Obviously last year he was very good although even then he was better in the first half. Vlad has been in general a better first half than second half hitter. Not sure if that is a universal trend among all hitters though. Anyway we keep waiting for him to break out like last year but clearly not going to happen when hitting 52.5% ground balls.
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Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#423137) #
This is just Guerrero's third full season - 2020 was a fragment - and in 2019 he was significantly better in the second half. I also think his 2021 first half created some very unrealistic expectations - for the fans, for management, and for Guerrero himself. So much of it was built on how he hit in Dunedin and Buffalo - .364/.464/.827 with 21 HRs in 44 games. That's not who he is, because that's not who anybody is.

This year, the difference between his two halves is essentially the home runs. They're down - 19 in his first 81 games, 12 since. Everything else has been pretty much the same.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 01:52 PM EDT (#423138) #
"Walk of the Month Club" Tapia

And therein lies the dilemma, because Tapia was a much, much better hitter in those two months - June and July - when he drew, yup, exactly one walk each month. In June he hit .296/.306/.507 and in July he hit .357/.368/.554, which will definitely pass muster. He drew 5 walks in May, and hit .239/.292/.254. So I dunno... keep hacking?
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85bluejay - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#423140) #
If the Jays are able to clinch home field and set their rotation, I'd strongly consider having Alek Manoah as the game 3 starter - Stripling - Gausman (extra day rest for his finger) - Manoah. You would have Manoah available if a decisive game 3 is needed or potential games 1 & 5 against the Astros. The downside of course is that you could lose in two straight with Manoah watching.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#423141) #
I have been thinking about the two halves of the 2022 Blue Jays. As you might recall, they replaced the manager right about halfway through the season and since that moment - things done changed. They played .523 ball for Montoyo, and so far they've played .620 ball for Schneider. If that's not sufficiently impressive, let me point out that they've only played .600 ball for two managers in franchise history - Bobby Cox in 1985 and Cito Gaston in 1989 (and if the Orioles sweep the final three games, they won't do it for Schneider either.)

So I've been looking at how everyone played under the two managers, and what's actually been different on the field. The big picture is simple enough - they scored 4.56 runs per game with Montoyo in charge, they've scored 5.07 for Schneider. They allowed 4.44 per game before the change; they've cut that down to 3.95 since. But how did this happen? So I'm looking at the individuals involved. There may be Data Tables....
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Kasi - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#423142) #
Not sure I agree with resting Manoah that long. If he goes game one on Friday that is one week between starts. If he skips and goes Sunday just in case it is 9 days. More if they win in two. I don't think I'd want to push my main starter into a long rest just to set up a scenario that only works if they sweep Seattle.

If they don't then they won't be able to pitch Manoah to at least game 4 against Houston. Say Manoah goes Friday then regardless he should be able to pitch game 2 and a later game against Houston on shorter rest (5 game series).
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 02:44 PM EDT (#423143) #
Not sure I agree with resting Manoah that long.

Word. Don't get cute.
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99BlueJaysWay - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 03:25 PM EDT (#423144) #
Magpie, I for one am extremely interested in seeing that breakdown. Bring on the tables!

Count me in on Manoah in Game 1. There are very few rest days in this year’s playoffs. I’d rather see the Jays out their best foot forward in the first two games to avoid a third, and gain a rest day, than try to line up their best starter for the second series.
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Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#423145) #
Bring on the tables!

I'm trying to decide whether to just present the raw numbers, or if I should pro-rate them - turn the 88 games under Montoyo and the 71 under Schneider under full seasons for each!
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hypobole - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#423146) #
Just noticed that despite Vladdy's wRC+ drop from 166 to 130, this years team has been better overall by that measure.

112 wRC+ in 2021, 118 so far.
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jerjapan - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#423147) #
Jason Stark has his awards picks up at the Athletic. 

BB 9th for MVP, with Manoah and Romano on the just missed out list (of 11 names). 

Manoah 2nd behind the ageless Verlander for the Cy Young. 

Berrios second for the Cy Yuck....
Surprised to see Romano on the MVP list!



[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#423148) #
And I immediately thought - I'm not writing for children here! I don't need to pro-rate these numbers! Just the raw data will be fine!

So here are the hitters.

Player     Managaer    G  GS   PA   AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB  IBB   SO  HBP GDP  SB CS  BAVG   OBP   SLG   OPS    BAbip
                                                                                                        
Jansen     Montoyo    20  16   65   59   9  14   1   0   7   13   3    0   10   2    0   0  0  .237  .292  .610  .903    .163
Jansen     Schneider  50  43  176  149  25  41   8   0   8   30  22    1   31   1    1   1  0  .275  .364  .490  .854    .290
                                                                                                     
Kirk       Montoyo    78  66  285  247  41  77  12   0  10   33  32    1   27   4    7   0  0  .312  .397  .482  .878    .316
Kirk       Schneider  59  56  250  217  18  57   7   0   4   30  31    1   29   0    4   0  0  .263  .352  .350  .702    .285
                                                                                                        
Guerrero   Montoyo    87  85  374  331  46  88  14   0  19   54  37    4   68   4   12   0  1  .266  .345  .480  .825    .281
Guerrero   Schneider  71  71  323  300  42  84  21   0  12   42  19    2   47   2   14   8  2  .280  .325  .470  .795    .296
                                                                                                        
Espinal    Montoyo    87  80  338  310  31  84  21   0   6   37  24    1   54   1    9   5  2  .271  .323  .397  .719    .308
Espinal    Schneider  48  39  153  139  20  36   4   0   1   14  12    0   14   1    3   1  4  .259  .322  .309  .632    .282
                                                                                                       
Bichette   Montoyo    87  87  389  366  48  95  20   0  14   48  23    0   95   0    7   5  6  .260  .303  .429  .732    .315
Bichette   Schneider  70  69  302  280  41  92  23   1  10   45  18    0   58   2   14   8  2  .329  .371  .525  .896    .383
                                                                                                        
Chapman    Montoyo    82  79  321  286  42  63  15   0  13   41  28    0   80   4    5   0  0  .220  .296  .409  .705    .255
Chapman    Schneider  71  71  293  247  40  59  12   1  14   34  38    1   90   6    2   2  2  .239  .352  .466  .817    .310
                                                                                                        
Gurriel    Montoyo    79  77  311  285  35  87  23   0   5   36  19    1   54   5    6   3  1  .305  .357  .439  .796    .360
Gurriel    Schneider  42  42  182  168  17  45   9   1   0   16  12    0   29   1    5   0  3  .268  .320  .333  .654    .324
                                                                                                        
Springer   Montoyo    78  73  335  292  51  73  14   2  17   40  31    1   65   6    3   9  1  .250  .330  .486  .817    .262
Springer   Schneider  54  52  244  217  38  64   8   2   8   36  23    0   34   1    4   5  1  .295  .364  .461  .824    .318
                                                                                                        
Hernandez  Montoyo    64  62  262  243  28  64  16   1   9   35  17    0   73   2    6   5  3  .263  .317  .449  .765    .342
Hernandez  Schneider  65  64  264  248  42  67  19   0  16   42  16    0   76   0   12   1  0  .270  .314  .540  .855    .327
                                                                                                        
Tapia      Montoyo    72  61  246  232  25  61  14   0   4   22   9    0   46   0    7   4  1  .263  .289  .375  .664    .312
Tapia      Schneider  53  44  175  168  22  44   6   3   3   30   6    0   32   0    4   4  0  .262  .287  .387  .674    .308
                                                                                                        
Biggio     Montoyo    47  41  153  126  19  27  10   1   2   12  23    0   45   3    1   1  0  .214  .349  .357  .706    .317
Biggio     Schneider  47  33  138  121  22  23   8   0   4   12  14    0   36   2    1   1  0  .190  .283  .355  .638    .232

It will surprise no one that the player who has prospered the most Under New Management was Bo Bichette, whose OPS has gone from .732 to .896; alas that whopping improvement is almost entirely cancelled by a dropoff of similar proportion from Alejandro Kirk (.878 to .702 - Kirk's basically been Tapia if Tapia ever took a walk. They even have the same number of RBIs! )

So I think there are three players to single out: Matt Chapman, Teoscar Hernandez, and Danny Jansen. Chapman's been hitting more HRs, drawing more walks, and hitting for a somewhat better average. It all adds up. He's been striking out more than ever, which was already a lot, but it's working. Hernandez basically found his power stroke. Everything else is the same - he's just hitting HRs twice as often. As for Jansen - he's simply been in the lineup. He was available to start just 16 games for Montoyo.

Curious - we talk about Guerrero's GDPs all the time, and why wouldn't we. Bichette and Hernandez have both been hitting into twice as many DPs since the managerial change as they did before.

One more thing. Neither Espinal nor Biggio have hit much since Schneider took over, but Whit Merrifield has come riding to the rescue. I didn't include him because he was in Kansas City.
[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#423149) #
I still hate that we put Max Castillo into that deal, but I think Whit is starting to prove some people wrong. 
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#423150) #
And some people right.
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Kasi - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#423151) #
I just don’t think Castillo would be any better than White. But maybe not worse and we could have still traded for Whit and kept Frasso. I think Kikuchi will be better next year his stuff is too good. Not sure on White though but then again Stripling sucked for a while here too.
[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#423152) #
And some people right.
Pro Whit from the get go?  nice call.  he always looked like a good buy-low to me.  I think we need to be raising our ceiling, not our floor, but thumbs up to the deal nonetheless. 

Not sure if Castillo = White, tbd.  to me, the issue is org inflexibility. 

last year we needed an arm for the pen who would throw strikes, and I was like, where is Taylor Saucedo, the loyal org soldier throwing strikes in Buffalo?  took major injuries to get to him. 

this year, its castillo not getting a chance to be a bulk inning guy.  Gage.  Lukes.  guys with potential utility, but too low on the depth chart to merit consideration. 

those fringe guys need to know they can work their way into the mix based on performance, not pedigree.  we need more Kevin Pillar type finds. or a nestor cortes of our own.  creativity.
anyway, small potatoes.  big picture, I like where we are at.
playoffs baby!
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#423153) #
And here are the pitchers.

Player        Manager     G  GS  W  L   IP    H    R  ER  BB   SO  HR  HBP   ERA  FIP    BF  BAVG   OBP   SLG   OPS  BAbip
                                                                                    
Manoah        Montoyo    17  17  9  4  107.2  81  33  28  25   97  10   7   2.34  3.41  428  .208  .265  .328  .594  .247
Manoah        Schneider  14  14  7  3   89    63  22  21  26   83   6   8   2.12  3.27  358  .195  .271  .297  .568  .243
                                                                                    
Gausman       Montoyo    16  16  6  6   88    96  35  28  16  100   2   0   2.86  1.68  371  .273  .302  .364  .666  .372
Gausman       Schneider  15  15  6  4   86.2  92  37  37  12  105  13   1   3.84  3.09  354  .272  .298  .438  .735  .356
                                                                                    
Berrios       Montoyo    18  18  7  4   95.1 107  57  57  23   86  19   6   5.38  4.81  415  .278  .328  .486  .813  .313
Berrios       Schneider  13  13  4  3    7.2  89  45  42  19   58  10   5   5.35  4.33  314  .310  .362  .460  .822  .359
                                                                                    
Stripling     Montoyo    20  12  4  3   67.1  64  27  25  14   55   5   0   3.34  3.07  275  .246  .284  .365  .649  .294
Stripling     Schneider  12  12  6  1   67    53  22  20   6   56   7   2   2.69  3.16  261  .211  .234  .343  .576  .242
                                                                                  
Kikuchi       Montoyo    16  16  3  5   65    61  43  37  41   74  14   6   5.12  5.81  295  .249  .367  .490  .857  .296
Kikuchi       Schneider  15   4  2  2   34    32  24  21  17   48   9   3   5.56  5.50  154  .241  .338  .519  .857  .299
                                                                                    
Romano        Montoyo    33   0  2  2   32    25  10   9  14   36   2   1   2.53  3.08  132  .214  .303  .299  .602  .291
Romano        Schneider  29   0  3  2   31    18   8   6   6   36   2   3   1.74  2.50  121  .162  .225  .225  .450  .219
                                                                                    
Cimber        Montoyo    40   0  8  3   38.1  31  17  14   6   29   4   1   3.29  3.51  150  .223  .257  .367  .624  .250
Cimber        Schneider  36   0  2  3   31.1  34  11   8   7   28   2   7   2.30  3.50  139  .276  .350  .374  .724  .344
                                                                                    
Richards      Montoyo    33   0  2  1   32.2  30  22  21  20   39   7   1   5.79  5.44  146  .244  .352  .455  .807  .295
Richards      Schneider  28   3  1  1   30.1  26  19  17  15   43   2   0   5.04  2.62  131  .230  .313  .336  .649  .338
                                                                                    
Phelps        Montoyo    38   0  0  2   34.2  27  13  11  16   32   0   1   2.86  2.74  143  .216  .310  .264  .574  .290
Phelps        Schneider  27   0  0  0   28    24   9   9  15   32   2   2   2.89  3.58  125  .222  .328  .343  .671  .297
                                                                                    
Mayza         Montoyo    30   0  2  0   24.2  25   9   8   8   20   2   1   2.92  3.64  102  .275  .333  .396  .729  .324
Mayza         Schneider  31   0  6  1   22    17  10   9   4   22   5   0   3.68  4.61   85  .213  .250  .438  .688  .226
                                                                                    
Garcia        Montoyo    31   0  1  3   29    21  11  10   5   27   3   2   3.10  3.32  113  .202  .248  .346  .594  .237
Garcia        Schneider  29   0  3  2   31    27  15  11  11   31   3   2   3.19  3.63  131  .233  .305  .353  .659  .286
                                                                                    
Thornton      Montoyo    16   0  0  2   24.1  19   7   7   9   20   0   0   2.59  2.58   98  .218  .286  .264  .550  .275
Thornton      Schneider  15   0  0  0   19.2  21  14  14   7   16   7   1   6.41  7.33   84  .276  .345  .579  .924  .264
                                                                                    
Merryweather  Montoyo    20   0  0  2   18.1  23  13  13   3   17   2   2   6.38  3.50   83  .311  .346  .514  .859  .368
Merryweather  Schneider   6   1  0  1    8.1   8   7   7   4    6   2   0   7.56  6.23   36  .250  .333  .438  .771  .250
                                                                                    
                                                                                
Ryu           Montoyo     6   6  2  0   27    32  17  17   4   16   5   0   5.67  4.78  113  .294  .319  .541  .860  .307
White         Schneider   9   8  0  4   39    52  32  32  15   27   2   1   7.38  3.63  184  .313  .370  .464  .834  .360
                                                                                    
Lawrence      Montoyo     5   0  0  1   15.2  20  14  14   3    9   5   1   8.04  6.88   68  .318  .353  .587  .940  .300
Bass          Schneider  27   0  2  0   24.2  19   5   5   8   27   5   0   1.82  4.53   97  .214  .278  .393  .672  .246

Pop           Montoyo                                                                                
Pop           Schneider  18   0  0  2   19    18   4   4   2   11   1   1   1.89  3.11   74  .254  .284  .324  .608  .288

I think it's a little more difficult to identify why they're giving up half a run per game fewer since the change. It doesn't really appear to be the starters. Manoah has been consistently excellent, and Berrios has been consistently bad. Gausman was definitely better early on. Ryu wasn't very good for Montoyo, but he was quite a bit better than White was for Schneider. Kikuchi was bad for Montoyo, and Schneider banished him to the bullpen quickly enough. That leaves Stripling who made 12 good starts for Montoyo (3.19 ERA) and 12 excellent starts for Schneider - and Schneider did get more innings out of Stripling, who was fully stretched out by the time the change was made.

I think the bullpen might be a bigger reason. Obviously, the addition of Pop and, especially, Bass gave Schneider more good relief pitchers to work with. Schneider has also used his relievers more than Montoyo did. That may not leap out of the data, but I did pro-rate all these numbers at one point and it turns out that Schneider used each of his trustworthy relievers just a little more frequently than Montoyo did. Not a lot, just a little. Cimber and Romano, who both pitched well for Montoyo, pitched very well for Schneider. Everyone else was pretty much the same all along (except for Thornton, who went bad and went to the minors. And Bass and Pop, who came aboard.)
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#423154) #
I still hate that we put Max Castillo into that deal

Look at his numbers in Kansas City (and Omaha!) You'll feel better, I promise.
[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#423156) #
true, but there is a big difference between him starting in KC and low-leverage relief IPs for the org that developed him ...
as for Omaha, I mean, we have years of minor league data on the guy. 

is there such a thing as a trade effect on performance?  i assume its FAR more disruptive for the minor league AAAA guys
[ Reply to This ]
Gerry - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#423157) #
Matt Gage, Julian Merryweather and Casey Lawrence are with the team and on the taxi squad.
[ Reply to This ]
grjas - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#423158) #
“ Manoah 2nd behind the ageless Verlander for the Cy Young. “

Under the what if category, if Verlander had picked Toronto instead of Houston- and it was very close- the Yankees would be looking up at us.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 05:29 PM EDT (#423159) #
The only player I know of commenting on Montoyo's dismissal was Bichette with his "lost the room" comment. Interesting he's the most improved since the change.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#423160) #
Looking at the pitching table, Schneider turning Lawrence into Bass was the outside-the-box thinking Montoyo just didn't have.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#423161) #
Interesting he's the most improved since the change.

By interesting I presume you mean coincidental and are not hinting at causality.

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#423162) #
Schneider turning Lawrence into Bass was the outside-the-box thinking Montoyo just didn't have.

Well, that's what a GM is for.

There are odd little nuggets in all that data that defy explanation. For example...

Richards and Berrios both significantly reduced the number of HRs they gave up after the managerial change. It didn't do them much good, partially because they got much worse results on the Balls that were In Play. But both men were clearly throwing the ball better than they were earlier.

Whereas Gausman and Thornton went all HR happy. Well, opposition hitters were happy. The rest of Gausman's game is good enough that he can more or less get away with it. Thornton, not so much.

Are Phelps and Garcia even aware that there was a managerial change?

Bichette stole 5 bases in 11 tries while Montoyo was in charge. He's 8 of 10 since the change. And he's hit into as many DPs as Vlad since Schneider took over.

Since Schneider took over, Tapia has more extra-base hits than Kirk, in far fewer at bats. How does that even happen? It does explain why his Slugging Pct. is so much better. It still seems wrong.

Espinal has 5 extra-base hits since Schneider took over? I know he's missed a lot of games - but five? He can't be swinging very hard. Notice that he never strikes out any more, either.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#423163) #
"By interesting I presume you mean coincidental and are not hinting at causality."

On one hand, is it always 100% coincidence that a worker performs better for a boss he likes than a boss he doesn't?

On the other hand, from the mid-July dismissal through the end of August, Bo was slightly worse under Schneider than he was under Montoyo. It wasn't until September, when he decided to stop striking out and started spraying the ball all over the yard that he really took off.

So by interesting, I guess I mean "Hmmm... interesting".
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#423164) #
The Tim & Friends show brought up that the Jays 7-9 hitters are #1 in Avg/OBP/Slg so I figured lets see the whole lineup vs league...
  1. 5th in OPS 258/324/435 - 759 - Tapia at 844 (!), Springer 824, then 733 for Espinal and 600 or less for the rest (104 PA). Clearly Springer is critical
  2. 15th in OPS 274/321/434 - 755 - Vlad (806) & Bo (754), 29 PA for Espinal (252 OPS), 8 PA for all others.
  3. 11th in OPS 277/337/473 - 811 - Vlad 818, Kirk 662, Bo 1.177, Gurriel 560, Teoscar 683, rest 4 PA.
  4. 17th in OPS 249/329/395 - 724 - Kirk 821, Hernandez 731, Bo 572, Gurriel 774, Chapman 327, Collins 650, 16 PA for all others
  5. 3rd in OPS 243/309/438 - 746 - Hernandez 820, Chapman 588, Bo 930, Gurriel 567, Kirk 1.267, Espinal 725, Tapia 672, Collins 580, Biggio 237, 16 PA for the rest
  6. 1st in OPS 291/346/478 - 824 - Chapman 909, Gurriel 779, Tapia 666, Kirk 563, Espinal 829, Hernandez 1.076, Biggio 868, Bo 773, Collins 1.285, rest 16 PA
  7. 2nd in OPS 254/335/417 - 752 - Chapman 813, Tapia 629, Espinal 706, Jansen 945, Gurriel 925, Merrifield 710, Kirk 597, Biggio 600, 25 PA for the rest
  8. #1 in OPS 289/345/448 - 793 - Espinal 689, Jansen 955, Gurriel 1.073, Tapia 599, Merrifield 879, Moreno 681, Biggio 600, Kirk 1.187, Collins 913, 22 PA for the rest.
  9. 12th in OPS - 226/306/362 - 668 - Biggio 734, Jansen 766, Tapia 728, Zimmer 507, JBJ 464, Espinal 735, Merrifield 657, Moreno 445, Collins 909, rest 23 PA Interesting to dig though. For #4 on I used PA order for who I listed with over 10 PA. So Springer-Vlad-Bo-Kirk-Hernandez-Chapman-Jansen-Gurriel-whoever is at 2B seems to be the best order based on how they hit at the spots in the order. It'll be interesting to see what actually happens as that is very close to what we see now with the obvious exception of Gurriel being IL'ed and Jansen often being 8/9 for some reason it seems.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#423165) #
Well, that's what a GM is for.

Thanks for that info. I hadc always thought GM's were for giving overly enthusiastic, yet vapid, interviews.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#423166) #
Eddings is umping like it's raining and the game doesn't matter. Buck and Pat are playing along, as if pitches half a foot outside caught the corner.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#423167) #
Eddings is umping like it's raining and the game doesn't matter.

I had the same thought watching that last bat (Berrios to Vavra.) Those first two pitches were not strikes.
[ Reply to This ]
lexomatic - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 08:56 PM EDT (#423168) #
Eddings is umping like it's raining and the game doesn't matter.

 I had the same thought watching that last bat (Berrios to Vavra.) Those first two pitches were not strikes.

So much for good Berrios showing up. I have not been following. Better lucky, than good, I guess.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 09:08 PM EDT (#423169) #
Berrios was good, but he and Kremer have been getting some help. But Doug Eddings has had worse nights.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 09:16 PM EDT (#423170) #
Step one for the Orioles to prove they are a serious team will be to bid adieu to Odor once the season is done. They saw a player owed the league minimum and decided the cheap route would suffice for 2022. Given the core they now have, it's time to abandon that kind of strategy.

I assume Henderson/Mateo/Urias/Mountcastle will be the starting infield. I am not sold on Mountcastle other than when he plays the Blue Jays. A serviceable DH should not be difficult to add to that lot.

[ Reply to This ]
Kasi - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#423171) #
For people watching is this going to get called or just temporary?
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pooks137 - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 09:37 PM EDT (#423172) #
I was surprised they delayed it when they did (bases loaded, two outs, Top 8th).

It was raining pretty hard, but not really that different than the last few innings.

You would assume in a competitive game if the Orioles cared, they'd be upset that the timing of the delay just burned their reliever.

Maybe Brandon Hyde signaled to an umpire that he was going to make a pitching change anyway and they made the call there.

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#423173) #
They've got to wait a while, but I expect them to call it a night and count themselves lucky they got seven innings in.
[ Reply to This ]
pooks137 - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 09:41 PM EDT (#423174) #
Jamie Campbell just mentioned that there's a rule that a rain delay has to last at least 30 minutes before the game is called as official.

That seems to imply that they are just waiting out the clock.

[ Reply to This ]
pooks137 - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#423175) #
It's amazing the Tigers have won 10 of 12 with the ugly numbers of their starting 9.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#423176) #
This game will be called soon and the Jays will win, the magic number will be 1.
Seattle v Detroit just underway now
[ Reply to This ]
pooks137 - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#423177) #
Miguel Cabrera helping out the Jays. 1-0 Tigers.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#423178) #
And it's officially in the books.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#423179) #
That worked out well. An inning earlier would've been perfect. Still, just 1 reliever used (Mayza 1 IP 14 pitches) is a great night for the Jays. 2 games to go with a fresh pen. I like the Jays odds of getting that 1 final win to lock down top WC. The Mariners have 4 chances to blow it, Jays 2 to win it. Just need 1 of 6 games to go the right way. Seems like good odds to me.

Btw, anyone else watching those Mariner games lately? I watch a few innings and boy are their announcers bad - they sound like they expect their team to lose and/or screw up at any time. Just depressing to listen to. Make Buck & Tabler sound like HOF'ers in comparison.
[ Reply to This ]
pooks137 - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#423180) #
Javy Baez just went yard. 3-1 Tigers Top 3.
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pooks137 - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#423181) #
Tigers doing a good job running up the pitch count on the M's starter George Kirby.

67 pitches in the third with I believe a doubleheader tomorrow.

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#423183) #
Garcia runs into trouble in the fifth - a run in, runners on the corners with no one out - and fans Rodriguez and gets France to hit into a DP to escape. Cool.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 11:43 PM EDT (#423184) #
By the way, if you missed the broadcast yesterday, they talked to Stripling between innings and after he'd finished cheering Merrifield's homer, he talked some about his process and it was very interesting. He pitches like a grownup, and he talks like one as well.

Yeah, so that's been a process that I've added to as I've gone. When I first got in the big leagues I thought I was smart enough to handle as big a workload as I could take, which is like, 'What does a guy hit against 2-1 sliders with one out?' or, you know, just crazy things, trying to just remember anything and everything on the mound that I possibly could ... and I would just get too bogged down on the mound trying to incorporate too much information.

I've really been able to, now, narrow it down to exactly what I want, which is basically: fastball lanes that are safe, which offspeed are the best, which one gets ground balls, which one gets swing-and-miss, where do I go with two strikes, where do I go early in the count, can I get ahead with the breaking ball, is he passive, is he aggressive. I get with Buschmann, Pete, and Jano or Kirk, whoever's catching me, and we put a good plan together. It's not too much information where I'm thinking about too much on the mound. I'm still in attack mode, but I've got a really good plan of what I want to do and what I want to execute out there.

I was reminded vaguely of a pitcher from the past - probably Jim Palmer - who once said that the one thing he wanted to know about the hitters was where their power zone was. So he could avoid that, but otherwise just pitch his game.
[ Reply to This ]
Nigel - Monday, October 03 2022 @ 11:51 PM EDT (#423185) #
This M’s team is going to be a bear in a short playoff. They can’t hit but they have high leverage relievers galore.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#423186) #
Garcia runs out of gas with two out in the seventh. Cisnero allows an RBI double to Rodriguez but strikes out France with the go-ahead run down on second base. On to the eighth, Tigers up 4-3.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 12:19 AM EDT (#423187) #
They can’t hit but they have high leverage relievers galore.

Ya think? I count five guys, including Castillo who's not having a good year but has been very good in the past. The Jays look just as strong in the pen to me.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 12:53 AM EDT (#423188) #
And the Wild Card series opens in Toronto, opponent still to be determined. A couple of stress-free days upcoming.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 01:10 AM EDT (#423189) #
Woo-hoo! 2 days of sloppy baseball coming. I expect Zimmer, Moreno, and Lopez to get a lot of playing time, resting up the big guns. Especially Springer and Kirk who both need a break I figure. I'd try to give Bo a day off tomorrow too.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 03:21 AM EDT (#423190) #
Honestly didn't think we'd be at home. Sept 16 the Mariners had taken 3 of 5 vs the Braves and Padres and were even with the Jays, both 18 games over .500.

They had the easiest remaining schedule in baseball, not one game left against a team with a winning record. Meanwhile the Jays had 15 of their 18 against winning teams.

Jays have gone 10-6, Mariners 7-10.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 05:33 AM EDT (#423191) #
Stripling changed his pitch mix. He used to be fastball/curve/slider to righties and fastball/curve/change to lefties, now he only uses the curve as an opening pitch to every third hitter or so and throws fastball/change/slider.

A pitch in the middle of the plate is a mistake pitch. For some hitters, a high/low/inside pitch is also a mistake pitch.
Some pitchers have problems staying away from those parts of the plate and pay for it.

[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 05:57 AM EDT (#423192) #
Top seems like a good replacement for Maximo.
Merrifield was a good pick. He carried the team to that wild card host spot.

Nobody misses Groshans, but the Frasso deal is another matter.
Hopefully White can put up numbers that are closer to those he had in LA.

[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 08:01 AM EDT (#423193) #
2 days of sloppy baseball!! I like it. So what to talk about.

Houston's last 15 games of the season are all against teams that are/were contending at the time. TB 6, Baltimore 4, Phillies 3. Arizona 2 was the lone non contender. A good record of 8W/5L with 2 to go against Philly.
[ Reply to This ]
grjas - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 08:15 AM EDT (#423194) #
Good news. Was worried about BP burn out this week but they will be well rested. Will be interesting to see how often the regulars play. They will want to stay hot, but avoiding the wet field and resting up will be enticing options.
[ Reply to This ]
Thomas - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#423195) #
The lack of expanded postseason rosters hurts the Jays a little here with the meaningless games but having less ability to call up other parts of the 40 man roster to cover.

I expect the Jays to use their bullpen fairly normally today, behind White. However, I wouldn't be surprised if they demote White after the game (I can't see a role for him on the playoff roster, obviously) and call up Lawrence. That way, if Kikuchi has a disastrous start, Lawrence can soak up some innings tomorrow to save the pen.
[ Reply to This ]
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#423196) #
"[Stripling] pitches like a grownup, and he talks like one as well."

An intellectual economist. Has the Blue Jays roster ever featured an Ivy League ballplayer?

* * *

Playoff round opponents:
Seattle - WC
Houston - DS
Yankees - LCS
Dodgers - WS

Running the gauntlet in that scenario.

* * *

What a hassle! That blasted rascal Mountcastle.

[ Reply to This ]
pooks137 - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#423197) #
Bo getting a day off is probably contingent on the manager's confidence in Otto Lopez on being able to play at SS in the majors without embarrassing himself.

Unless Espinal is ready to be activated and play full games.

[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#423198) #
Ideally they play guys that can be demoted today so they can play the taxi squad guys tomorrow.

Guys that are scuffling could take a day off.
Maybe Springer at DH. Maybe give Moreno a start in case he's needed in the playoffs.
Bichette will want to play. Merrifield, Chapman, Guerrero, as well.
Maybe need to keep Teoscar rolling.

Hopefully, it doesn't rain too much.

[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#423199) #
"Has the Blue Jays roster ever featured an Ivy League ballplayer?"

Princeton alum Danny Barnes is a recent one

jerjapan, why did you pop in my head when I thought of Barnes?
[ Reply to This ]
Kasi - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#423200) #
Can we option players for two games and then bring them back for the playoffs? Mainly wondering about relievers we want to spell.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#423201) #
"An intellectual economist. Has the Blue Jays roster ever featured an Ivy League ballplayer?"

Jeff Musselman went to Harvard.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 11:06 AM EDT (#423202) #
You're traveling through another dimension, a dimension not only of swings and misses but of framing. A journey into a wondrous land whose boundaries are that of umpiring. That's the signpost up ahead - your next stop, the Shadow Zone.

And that's where Kirk and Manoah live.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/alejandro-kirk-and-alek-manoah-boldly-go-towards-the-shadow-zone/
[ Reply to This ]
Cracka - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 12:01 PM EDT (#423203) #
Another one: Mark DeRosa went to Penn and won 2 Ivy league football titles as their QB.

Unrelated good news: If today's game is canceled due to weather, it will NOT be made-up as part of a doubleheader tomorrow, and we will only need to play 161 regular season games.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#423204) #
Why would they even need to do that, Kasi? These two games mean absolutely nothing, so the Jays can get work for their bullpen arms as they see fit. If 4 days off heading into the playoffs is seen as too much then Romano, Bass, and Cimber will throw a little tonight for the 3rd time in 4 days and then get two days off. Garcia, Phelps, and Pop could each use some work tonight too. Richards definitely needs some work if he's going to make the WC roster. As Thomas pointed out, the Jays will swap White for Lawrence for tomorrow's game and should be fine with just Kikuchi, Lawrence, and Richards. Maybe Zimmer throws cheese.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#423205) #
There is a funny bit where an interviewer asks individual Blue Jay players to name as many Canadians as they can. Most get a few- Justin Bieber, Drake, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, maybe Wayne Gretzky but Stripling goes on and on. I don't think he gets to the Group of Seven, so his post-retirement CBC talk show gig will depend on him digging deeper after he signs a free agent contract here.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#423206) #
Did anyone namedrop their Canadian teammate, Otto Lopez? Is 4 Canadians on the active roster a Jays record?
[ Reply to This ]
BlueMonday - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#423207) #
I think the record for the Jays (or any MLB team for that matter) is a stretch in 2015 when there were a total of 5: Martin, Saunders, Francis, Pompey and Aalbers.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#423208) #
In the Mitch White trade we got White and a decent IF prospect. We gave up 2 decent pitching prospects that LAD have time to develop.

Since winning is most important the Jays needed an arm that could help. White has 145IP in the majors and Thornton has 253IP in the majors. Both have similar results.

This is the type of desperate deal we have been making the last 3 trade deadlines to help get to the post season. Maybe not desperate but calculating. The Berrios trade was different.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#423209) #
Nope, 92-93. It was probably filmed last off-season, FWIW.
[ Reply to This ]
Cracka - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 01:00 PM EDT (#423210) #
Kasi: Yes - we could option White & Pop and both would still be eligible for the playoffs. The 15-day waiting rule applies to the regular season and all optioned players are automatically "recalled" once the regular season ends. I don't think they'll do this, but they could get a live look at Nate Pearson tomorrow by making a couple of short-term roster moves.
[ Reply to This ]
Kasi - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#423211) #
We just really don’t have any long relievers right now other than White or Kikuchi so I’d like to have someone like Lawrence up in case White throws 80 pitches in three innings and now we have to use real relievers for six innings.
[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#423212) #
jerjapan, why did you pop in my head when I thought of Barnes?
Thats funny man you remember that man.  Another example of me geeking out over a long-shot, strike-throwing, relief-only prospect.  I think if he didnt get that rotator cuff injury in 2014 he might have had a tim mayza type career.  apparently he is an assistant coach with the Mets now.  35th rounder ... I wonder if there any more of them still playing the game.
Blake McFarland was another one of those longshot guys I liked to pull for.  Someone here posted bout his nascent art career years back, and he seems to have carved himself out a successful niche with his sculptures - lots of college sports mascots and the like.  he has a build your own cinderblock and wood bench project video up and I convinced myself I would build that this summer ... ah well.  next year.
[ Reply to This ]
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#423213) #
"You're traveling through another dimension - your next stop, the Shadow Zone."

Ross Stripling plays Rod Serling.

[ Reply to This ]
Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#423214) #
The Twilight Zone (1959) premiered on Friday, October 2nd.
On that day, the L.A. Dodgers defeated the Go-Go White Sox by a score of 4-3 in Game 2 of the World Series at Comiskey Park.

The Dodgers won the National League title after sweeping a best-of-three pennant tiebreaker with the Milwaukee Braves.
And I previously thought tiebreakers were single-game elimination?

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#423215) #
And I previously thought tiebreakers were single-game elimination?

They were in the AL. The NL, which had the first one in 1946, used a best of three series for the first 20 years or so. Bobby Thomson's famous 1951 HR was in game three of one of them. The last three game set was in 1952. Dodgers and Giants again, Dodgers lost again.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#423216) #
The last three game set was in 1952.

That should read 1962. The Giants scored 4 in the top of the ninth to win 6-4.
[ Reply to This ]
John Northey - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#423217) #
Well, no baseball tonight. Doubleheader tomorrow 12:35 start for game 1, game 2 starts 30 minutes after game 1 ends. So a long final day of the regular season for the Jays and O's, but it'll be done with luck before a normal start time for a weekday game, thus giving the Jays lots of time to get home and get a good sleep and full day to prepare for the playoffs.

So Seattle is 1 1/2 up on Tampa with 3 to go for Seattle and 2 for Tampa. I figure the two of them are only playing for pride as which would you rather face? The Jays with Manoah & Gausman and a hot Hernandez/Bo or Cleveland (Jose Ramirez on a mission it seems, Andres Gimenez also over 140 for OPS+ plus 2 starters with ERA+'s over 125 in Shane Bieber & Triston McKenzie). Round 1 will not be easy for Tampa or Seattle no matter if they are 2nd or 3rd WC.
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Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#423218) #
Intriguing. I could only think of Bucky Dent!
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hypobole - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#423219) #
So do the teams get a extra man for the doubleheader Wednesday?
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Kasi - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#423220) #
They should yes. I expect White for sure to be optioned and maybe Pop too after game one to get Lawrence and someone else in there. (Maybe Merryweather)
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bpoz - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#423221) #
Double header tomorrow!! IMO the Jays have planned on how to use their pitchers. Manoah need 3.1IP to reach 200IP for the season. Will he get it?

I will wait and see how/what happens. In the meantime I am sure that the Jays are deciding on how to use their personnel prior to the playoffs. Overuse VS underuse!!This is very tricky IMO.
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hypobole - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#423222) #
Manoah need 3.1IP to reach 200IP for the season. Will he get it?

I assume yes, but only if you count the playoffs. No way he pitches tomorrow.
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Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#423223) #
Wednesday, May 15th, 1912: Detroit Tigers vs. Highlanders in New York. The Georgia Peach enters the grandstand and brutally fights a spectator. Ty Cobb is suspended.

Friday, May 17th: Detroit loses without Cobb in Philadelphia.

Saturday, May 18th: The regular team takes the field with Cobb. The umpire sends Cobb out. All the players leave the field. A rag-tag replacement squad appears.
Philadelphia wins 24-2. Detroit pitcher Allan Travers - complete game, 8 innings, 26 hits, 24 runs, 7 walks, 1 strikeout, 52 batters faced.

Tomorrow, Kikuchi could pitch with similar carte blanche.

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Glevin - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#423224) #
Jays will get a 29th man tomorrow I think but also, optioning a couple of guys after game one would help. It's a day off Thursday so having any reliever throw an inning isn't a huge deal. If game one goes long or something, what's stopping jays from forfeiting game two? It doesn't matter at all and rest is more important.
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Waveburner - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#423225) #
Looks like Rays/Red Sox was called despite falling one out shy of finishing 5 innings. Red Sox were up 6-0 so maybe that's why. With Mariners winning Game 1 of their double header that means Seattle vs Toronto in the wild card round. Should be fun!
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John Northey - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 11:11 PM EDT (#423226) #
A first meeting in the playoffs of the 1977 cousins. What other expansion cousins have played each other? Brackets indicate times in the playoffs and WS wins/losses - not counting this year as it hasn't happened yet.
  • 1961: Angels (10 - 1 WS win) & Senators/Rangers (8 - 2 WS losses) - never met in playoffs
  • 1962: Mets (9 - 2 WS wins, 3 WS losses) & Astros/Colt 45's (15 - 1 WS win, 3 WS losses) - played in '86 (Mets 4-2)
  • 1969: Royals (9 - 2 WS wins, 2 WS losses both WS wins required them beating the Jays in the ALCS) & Pilots/Brewers (8 - 1 WS loss) & Expos/Nationals (6 - 1 WS win) & Padres (6 - 2 WS losses) - 2019 Brewers vs Nationals (Nats won WC game)
  • 1977: Jays (8 - 2 WS wins) & Mariners (4) - never met until this year
  • 1993: Rockies (5 - 1 WS loss) & Marlins (3 - 2 WS wins) - haven't met in the playoffs yet
  • 1998: Diamondbacks (6 - 1 WS win) & Devil Rays/Rays (7 - 2 WS losses) - haven't met in the playoffs
So since 1961 only twice have expansion cousins met in the playoffs - 1986 Mets/Astros (that was a doozy) and 2019 Brewers vs Nationals (WC game). Kind of amazing this will just be the 3rd time that has happened. Most WS wins by an expansion team is 2 (Mets, Royals, Jays). Houston has a real shot at making that 3 this year, with the Jays & Mets each having a shot at being the first expansion team to get 3. Rays/Mariners/Padres all trying to get their first.

Others in the playoffs...
  • Yankees: trying for their 28th WS title (ugh), first since 2008 - the 2010's and 1980's are the only decades they didn't win at least one title since they got Ruth for the 1920 season. In fact the 2010's were the first decade they didn't even get to the WS - 12 years outside of the WS is pure hell for the Yankee fans I suspect. It was 14 between the 1981 and 1995 WS's. Their only other 10+ year streak was 1965 to 1975 (between Mantle and Reggie).
  • St Louis has a lot of titles - 12 so far, last in 2011, last time in the WS was 2013.
  • Dodgers: 7 titles (lots of losses to the Yankees, 15 total WS losses, 1 tie in the 1800's pre-WS title games). Last has an * due to being the short 2020 season, before that is 1988, first was the famous 1955 Brooklyn Dodgers (just a couple years before moving to LA).
  • Atlanta: 5 titles (2 in Boston, 1 in Milwaukee, 2 in Atlanta). Won last year. Before than 1995.
  • Phillies: 2 titles - 2008 & 1980 - given they were formed in 1883 that is pretty sad.
  • Guardians: 2 titles - 1948 & 1920, an original AL team from 1901. Last WS appearance was 2016 losing to the Cubs (someone's long streak was going to end)
So 3 teams trying for their first ever title (Rays/Mariners/Padres), 1 trying for their second (Houston), 4 trying for their 3rd (Jays/Mets/Phillies/Guardians), the rest have a lot of titles so they can just lose quickly :) Longest wait is Cleveland at 74 years. Longest wait for a first title by an expansion team is the Padres at 53 (formed the year I was born). The Mariners are the only ones who hasn't been to the WS ever.
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electric carrot - Tuesday, October 04 2022 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#423227) #
Here's what I think. Those days off are going to be curse not a blessing for the Yanks and the Astros.

I'm going to bet that it will be the Blue Jays facing Cleveland for the AL Pennant this year -- and that it will be a good series.
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Jonny German - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 05:44 AM EDT (#423228) #
I saw someone post a comparison like this on Twitter and he got a bunch of them wrong, so here's my take: 
C	Raleigh		TOR	Jansen/Kirk
1B	France   	TOR	Guerrero
2B	Frazier/Moore	SEA	Merri/Santi/Biggi
3B	Suarez    	Push	Chapman
SS	Crawford	TOR	Bichette
LF	Winker     	SEA	Tapia/Gurriel 
CF	Rodriguez	SEA	Springer
RF	Haniger     	TOR	Teoscar
DH	Santana     	TOR	Kirk etc.

SP1	Castillo    	Push	Manoah
SP2	Ray        	TOR	Gausman
SP3	Gilbert     	Push	Stripling

BP1	Sewald/Swanson/Munoz   	SEA	Romano/Garcia/Bass
BP2	Murfee/Castillo/Brash  	SEA	Cimber/Mayza/Phelps
BP3	Kirby/Festa/Boyd       	SEA	Richards/Pop/Berrios
I'm feeling good about this series for the Jays. The Mariners have better pitching depth, but not such a big edge when it comes to who will actually pitch in a short playoff series.

An interesting angle is that despite the Jays being a young team they have a big edge in Veteranness over the Mariners. Rodriguez, Kirby, Murfee, and Brash are all Rookies, Raleigh, Munoz, and Festa are each playing their first full season. The Blue Jays have zero important contributors with so little experience.
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scottt - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 09:32 AM EDT (#423230) #
fangraphs has an article on Kirk/Manoah and pitch framing.

What I take away from it mostly is how the umps favor the Yankees.

Catchers Framing Runs
Jose Trevino 18.5 (up from 8.8 last year)
Jose Heim 9.7
Cal Raleigh 8.5
Sean Murphy 8.4
Travis d'Arnaud 8.3
Omar Narvaez 7.8
Adley Rustchman 7.8
etc.

So basically, the umps have stolen about 10 runs from the Yankees opponents over the year.

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pooks137 - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 09:42 AM EDT (#423231) #
An interesting angle is that despite the Jays being a young team they have a big edge in Veteranness over the Mariners.

The Jays aren't really a young team anymore.

They are a team with a few young stars (Manoah, Vlad, Bo, Kirk) supported by a core of veterans, mercenaries and mercenaries-to-be.

The bullpen doesn't contain any rookies and the only 25-and-under guy is Zach Pop, in his second full season.

The rotation is all mercenaries except Manoah and a 27 y/o Mitch White yo-yoing to AAA.

Moreno and Lopez are on the bench because of the 28-man roster but aren't trusted to play. Defensive replacements JBJ and Zimmer are past their primes.

Chapman, Gurriel Jr, Tapia and Teoscar are entering walk years. Biggio and Jansen are 27. Espinal is older than he seems. Springer is 33 on year 2 of 6.

Will the Jays even take any rookies with them to the 26-man Wild Card series roster? 3rd catcher Gabriel Moreno who got the Brian Jeroloman treatment in Sept seems like the best bet.

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bpoz - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 10:17 AM EDT (#423232) #
Jays have a nice young but small core as mentioned. The goal is to win and make the playoffs while in this window.

They moved very fast to get good by getting older expensive players. Some regulars are getting older but not yet old. Gurriel, Chapman and Teoscar are examples.

A fast rebuild with the help of money was their goal IMO. Romano is 6 months older than Thornton, both 29. Romano fits the budget nicely now because he is not expensive and good.

I don't know how the team will change but I know that it will. The 1992/93 and 2015/16 teams got old fast. I don't think Shapiro will let this happen here. Merrifield made the team older by replacing Max Castillo. Merrifield adds something but Castillo's loss may hurt.
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99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#423233) #
According to bbref, the Jays have the 7th youngest team when it comes to. position players, and the 7th oldest pitching staff
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ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 11:41 AM EDT (#423234) #
" the 7th oldest pitching staff."

The Jays really need a young arm from the minors to come through as a starter soon, be it Tiederman, Robberse, Zuleta, or a guy from the lower levels. I'd far rather see a talented rookie in the fifth spot in the rotation, maybe taking his lumps occasionally but better than the mostly suckage that was Kikuchi and Mitch White this year.
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hypobole - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#423235) #
Article up at fangraphs on statcast outfield metrics. The author wondered what's more important, getting up to speed as quickly as possible or taking the best route to the ball. Apparently it's getting up to speed that correlates most to success.

A while back, Mike and Magpie (IIRC) discussed Tapia's tendency to stand at the plate after hitting the ball seemingly deciding whether to run. Teoscar takes elite routes; 100th percentile is about as elite as one can get. The main reason he's a negative in actually catching balls seems, much like Tapia at the plate, tied to his painfully slow reaction times before actually getting up to speed.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/learning-from-statcasts-outfield-jump-metrics/
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Nigel - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 12:07 PM EDT (#423236) #
Thanks hypobole - in Teoscar's case, you can't have both the elite routes and the getting up to speed quickly. In his early time with the Jays he used to take some awful routes but it was clear that a couple of years ago a choice was made for him to slow everything down and play the OF at 3/4's speed. I don't know that it works for everyone but in his case it was a very good trade off. Some loss of range for better decision making. The number of WTF moments have dropped significantly. This comes back to something that seems obvious now but wasn't to me in my early decades of watching baseball - the ability to judge the speed and distance of the flight of the ball is an ability that humans are better or worse at (just like running speed) and no amount of training can overcome some portion of that innate ability.
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bpoz - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#423237) #
Some reporters are saying the toughest level to master is the jump to the majors. I agree.

Stieb, Guzman, Hentgen, Stroman and others had no problem. Stieb & Stroman were given jobs on teams that were building. Manoah, Hentgen & Stroman were given jobs on contending teams. It seems that if you are good you will get a chance.

Zulueta, Tiedemann, Robberse & others should get a chance next year unless the whole pitching staff is fantastic and blocking them.
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Magpie - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#423238) #
Tapia's tendency to stand at the plate after hitting the ball seemingly deciding whether to run.

Subjectively, I thought he was doing better at getting up to speed more quickly as the season went on, and maybe he was. Mike specifically thought it was bizarre that a LH batter with Tapia's speed should hit so many GDPs and so few 3bs. In the first half, it was indeed 0 3bs and 8 GDPs in 254 PApps. In the second half, it was 3 of each (in 171 PApps.) Maybe he was reading...
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Cracka - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#423239) #
Playoff start times - all afternoon games:
Friday & Saturday: 4:07 PM EST
Sunday: 2:07 PM EST

Plan your long weekend accordingly.
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lexomatic - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 01:43 PM EDT (#423240) #
Wow. What broke BB .This is now page 11
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lexomatic - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#423241) #
Some hack still going. dropped another 3 in a few minutes. Check your host.
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Magpie - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#423242) #
I just manually deleted a few dozen fake posts. Don't these Russian bots have better things to do?
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Admin - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#423243) #
Yeah, turns out there's just a setting that lets anybody submit whatever they want. Turned it off, and I (and others) deleted those hack attempts.

I desperately need to upgrade Geeklog.

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lexomatic - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#423244) #
Thanks (and Magpie). Did you notice yourself or did one of my contact attempts get through?
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Ryan Day - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 02:32 PM EDT (#423245) #
In the first half, it was indeed 0 3bs and 8 GDPs in 254 PApps. In the second half, it was 3 of each (in 171 PApps.) Maybe he was reading...

It's worth remembering Tapia started the season changing his whole swing & approach at the plate. You could imagine that contributing to a more mechanical style of play.
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Admin - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#423246) #
I came in and noticed — how did you try contacting?
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lexomatic - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#423247) #
Looks like Moreno trying to send a message with HR #1. Decent cup of coffee for a 22 year old catcher. Today's 2/3, HR so far bumps him 22 wRC+ to 105 with positive defence.
GB% seems to be much higher this year than past career, so will be interesting to see if it will come back, or if it's injury related (strength loss, or mechanical change because of injury).
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scottt - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#423248) #
The outfield in the majors can be very different from the outfield in minor parks.
There's  2 domes in the division.
The guys who play LF used to be 1B/DH types with limited mobility.
It's not really true anymore.


Moreno is 22. Vlad and Kirk are 23.
Bichette is 24.
Jansen, Espinal and Biggio are 27.
Tapia is 28.
Chapman is 29.
Hernandez is 30.
Springer and Merrifield are 33.


Orelvis Martinez is 20.
Addison Barger is 22.
Leo Jimenez is 21.
Gabriel Martinez is 20.

Guys who haven't reached free agency don't qualify as old.


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Magpie - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 02:58 PM EDT (#423249) #
Watching poor Bradley Zimmer trying to hit is just sad.
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Ryan Day - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 03:02 PM EDT (#423250) #
I don't know if he'll play in Game 2, but Otto Lopez could finish the season batting 1.000, which would be a fun thing to see beside your name.
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lexomatic - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#423251) #
I came in and noticed — how did you try contacting?
I used the contact email and the twitter and then forum profile email to Magpie because only person I could think of who might have access
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Magpie - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 03:09 PM EDT (#423252) #
I didn't see an email - I don't know if that even works anymore - and I had this thread open when lexomatic first noted the trouble. I opened up the home page and saw all those weird posts. So I went in and started deleting. The site went down - presumably that was when the settings were getting changed, that wasn't me - and when it came back up, I resumed the deleting.
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jerjapan - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 03:11 PM EDT (#423253) #
Nothing to worry about with Moreno. Every team in the game would love to have him, and I still think he should headline a package for an elite player. Too much tinkering with the floor, time to raise the Ceiling, right? A legit CF, a starter, maybe even the right relief ace.

Lopez at all decent at short? I’m listening and heard he missed a play.

That’s the Mitch white I know…
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Magpie - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#423254) #
I don't know if today's players know who Wally Pipp was, but if they do they're telling Bo Bichette all about him.
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lexomatic - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#423255) #
I don't know if today's players know who Wally Pipp was, but if they do they're telling Bo Bichette all about him.
1000 OBP in first 5 PA (this season). But really, needs a bit more rope to prove his usefulness or lack thereof.
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jerjapan - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#423256) #
Adding to his big day, kid guns him down. Wait, that metaphors too dark, Moreno with a bullet, err, never mind. Gotta stop using violent metaphors
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jerjapan - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 03:24 PM EDT (#423257) #
Freakin baker
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Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#423258) #
Amidst a double-header, I wager André the Giant might imbibe 162 beers.

Handsome Danny Jansen.
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Cracka - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#423259) #
Moreno starting in LF in the season finale - first ever professional start in the outfield (3 games at 3B, 1 at 1B). I think there's a good chance that he's on the first playoff roster in lieu of Gurriel and/or Espinal, and he might need to be a utility guy in case of an injury or extra-inning game.
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Chuck - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 04:05 PM EDT (#423260) #
I have not paid attention all afternoon. Has Espinal's absence been discussed?
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Magpie - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#423261) #
Espinal and Gurriel are back in Toronto, working out there. The team has until Friday morning to set their roster.
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Magpie - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 04:21 PM EDT (#423262) #
he might need to be a utility guy in case of an injury or extra-inning game.

I believe we won't have the Zombie BaseRunner in the post-season. Old school baseball.
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Gerry - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#423263) #
I don't see it mentioned but Mitch White was optioned after the game and Trent Thornton recalled as bullpen insurance.
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Joe - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#423264) #
Emails from battersbox.ca definitely don't reach your address, Magpie — I saw them bounced by your host.

I, who was also signed in as Admin earlier in this thread, temporarily disabled the whole site while I investigated, and then once I figured out what had happened (WHY DOES GEEKLOG EVEN ALLOW ANONYMOUS STORY POSTING?!), I re-enabled it, turned off the setting, and started helping you delete.

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bpoz - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#423265) #
Thanks gentlemen for fixing the bugs.
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Magpie - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#423266) #
I saw them bounced by your host.

I have a host?
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Chuck - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#423267) #
Thanks gentlemen for fixing the bugs.

Yes, a thank you to all who keep this site up and running.

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Chuck - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#423268) #
I have a host?

Yes, he bounces emails. He's a goalie host. You are the father. Eephus is the son.

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Magpie - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 05:21 PM EDT (#423269) #
I was amusing myself on bb-ref the other day by figuring out how everyone on the team got signed to a pro contract - who was an amateur free agent, when people were drafted. (Yes, this is one of the ways I amuse myself.) It is weird to think that only three players - Gausman, Manoah, and Springer - were taken sooner in the draft than Bradley Zimmer.

But what I liked best was the Dodgers taking Mitch White with the 65th pick in 2016. The next player taken? Bo Bichette.
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grjas - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#423270) #
Yes, a thank you to all who keep this site up and running.

Yeah no kidding. I signed on mid afternoon and didn’t even know there was a problem …..you guys are quick……unlike Our ball club owner.
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pooks137 - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#423271) #
It was mentioned on the broadcast that Gage and Merryweather have already been dispatched to Toronto to throw live ABs to Gurriel Jr and Espinal in preparation for Friday.

Casey Lawrence is the 29th man for today's DH and Trent Thornton was called up for Game 2.

Not sure what these backend roster machinations say about the pecking order for these 4 in terms of potential inclusion on any postseason rosters if necessary.

I guess the postseason roster shrinking back down to 26 makes it unlikely that any of these bubble guys will get much consideration.

But I'm not sure it's much of a vote of confidence for Merryweather and Gage that management preferred them to be throwing rehab BP rather than eating innings in garbage time.

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Magpie - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#423272) #
I'm kind of curious to see where Otto Lopez's OPS+ ends up.
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blu-j - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 06:29 PM EDT (#423273) #
Game times have been announced for the Wild Card Round -- Jays play at 4:07 PM on Friday and Saturday; Sunday (if necessary) would be 2:07 PM.

So much for going anywhere in the afternoon this weekend!
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Kasi - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#423274) #
We should just move Moreno to CF and go with that next year.
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Magpie - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 06:39 PM EDT (#423275) #
Zimmer!
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John Northey - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#423276) #
I love how the Jays are doing these games - giving the kids as much playing time as possible in Lopez and Moreno who are running with it. Zimmer being Zimmer (1 for 2 games). Playing Moreno at C game 1, LF/2B/3B game 2.

Moreno really impresses - a C/utility guy would be nice. I suspect the Jays will try to trade Jansen this winter so Moreno can be in the majors getting regular time behind the plate and in LF. Maybe there is a contender or wanna-be contender who could use some veteran presence behind the plate and in the OF for 2023? Lots of possibilities to open up playing time. I'd love to have Moreno/Kirk as the C combo with Kirk getting lots of DH time and Moreno getting time in LF/3B as needed (Yogi Berra played lots of LF/RF while being a HOF C, Johnny Bench tons of 3B/1B/LF/RF while being one of the best ever at C as well for examples of guys who did that in the past).

The potential is fun to think about. This team is a rubik's cube of possibilities. At this point I'd be surprised if Moreno isn't on the post-season roster. Very useful if he can cover C/LF/3B/2B as needed and has a bat that shows life. Lopez is making a case to be on the team if Espinal isn't ready (5 for 8 today).

This reminds me of the 1992 team which took a couple of rookies to the playoffs - Derek Bell (one of the best prospect in MLB at the time - 184 PA that year, 88 OPS+), and Ed Sprague (50 PA that year, 71 OPS+) - neither setting the world on fire but useful parts - Sprague had a key HR in the World Series (3rd biggest play by cWPA - top 2 were from the final game, Nixon grounding out to end it, Winfield driving in the winning run in extras). Hmm... 1992 - 2022, both end in a 2 could it be a good omen? Lets hope!
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Nigel - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 06:58 PM EDT (#423277) #
It's pretty clear now that Zimmer should have been starting every day. And as for Lopez, its pretty clear that he has no future in the majors, he can't keep his average over .800.
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bpoz - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#423278) #
We have some prospects!! Next year they have to prove themselves if given a chance.
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John Northey - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 07:12 PM EDT (#423279) #
So who is in the pen for round 1?

Romano-Bass-Garcia-Mayza-Cimber-Phelps-Richards are total locks I'd say at this point. Pop should be too. Kikuchi I think is getting hot at just the right time to make it 9 guys in the pen vs 3 starters (Manoah-Gausman-Stripling). Trent Thornton showed he needs to be in the conversation if they want a long man (round 2 or 3) while White took himself out of that discussion. Lawrence is who he is, only used if an emergency situation occurs (multiple injuries). I'd have Berrios saved for round 2.

That means 12 pitchers vs 14 hitters. Hitters are mostly obvious depending on health for Gurriel and Espinal.
Vlad-Bo-Chapman-Springer-Hernandez-Kirk are the locks to start each game (6). Jansen-Tapia-JBJ-Biggio-Merrifield all could start any game but will flip flop bench-lineup (5). That leaves 3 slots - Zimmer (pinch run/defense), Moreno (super-utility 3rd catcher), and Lopez (utility) I figure if Gurriel/Espinal too hurt to play. If those guys can make it then Lopez is toast and probably Moreno with Zimmer a maybe cut so Moreno can be there (can hit, play C/LF/3B/2B). The Jays need to figure out what the roles for each is and which roles have the highest potential impact.
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John Northey - Wednesday, October 05 2022 @ 09:45 PM EDT (#423280) #
So, after a poor start that had many here calling for Bo to be traded or even benched he ends up leading the AL in hits and is 2nd in doubles (1 behind Jose Ramirez), 6th in runs, 6th in extra base hits. Vlad in an off year was 7th in HR (32) and 6th in RBI (97). Kirk was 10th in in OBP, Teoscar Hernandez 9th in Slg%.

On the negative side Vlad was #1 in GIDP with Bo 2nd Hernandez 8th (26 & 21 & 18 resp). Chapman 4th lowest GO/FO ratio (0.58), Vlad 3rd highest (1.45), Bo 7th highest (1.30), Kirk 4th in BB/SO ratio (good side) with the 3rd lowest K% in the AL. Vlad was #1 in hitting the ball 95+ MPH (263 times), Bo #3 (250) both better than Judge (247). For % of swings that produced 95+ MPH balls Kirk was #3 at 21.1%

Fun to look at now that we have final stats.
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Mike Green - Thursday, October 06 2022 @ 01:06 AM EDT (#423281) #
Addison Barger hit 2 home runs for Salt River today in the AFL.
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StephenT - Thursday, October 06 2022 @ 02:12 AM EDT (#423282) #
The ESPN/ABC announcers for the wildcard round are listed at https://espnpressroom.com/us/press-releases/2022/10/espn-platforms-to-exclusively-televise-entire-2022-mlb-wild-card-series/ .

I don't recognize all the names.  For the series in Toronto:
ESPN TV: Dave Flemming, Jessica Mendoza, Tim Kurkjian, Coley Harvey
ESPN Radio: Dan Shulman, Gregg Olsen

I'm not happy that the ESPN coverage of this series is censored in Canada.
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StephenT - Thursday, October 06 2022 @ 02:31 AM EDT (#423283) #
Hold on.  I just noticed the Sunday 2pm game (if necessary) would be on ABC.
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StephenT - Thursday, October 06 2022 @ 02:45 AM EDT (#423284) #
Actually, I just read the fine print at the bottom.  There needs to be at least 2 other series still alive for there to be a 2pm game Sunday.

The Sunday Jays game would move to 4pm on ESPN if there's only one other series still going, and it would move to 7pm on ESPN if it's the only series still going.

(I get ABC on my Rogers Digital Cable here in Ottawa.  But ESPN isn't even available as an extra-cost option.)
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Jonny German - Thursday, October 06 2022 @ 05:44 AM EDT (#423285) #
I'm kind of curious to see where Otto Lopez's OPS+ ends up.

296! 6 singles and a walk to show for his 10 plate appearances.

Speaking of rookies who hardly played, I wonder if these Jays set a new team record for least playing time for rookies. By my count just 49 games (101 PA) for the hitters and 32 games (38 IP) for the pitchers.

I guess Rookie of the Year goes to Moreno by default. Maybe he'll win it again next year.
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John Northey - Thursday, October 06 2022 @ 08:47 AM EDT (#423286) #
SO the offense was decent I'd say - 12 guys with a 100+ OPS+, 5 more in the 90's (Espinal finished at 99), an 88 (Heineman), then the nightmares - JBJ 51 and Zimmer 19. I figure that 19 has to be the worst in Jays history for a guy playing 100+ games (just 101 PA). Any other contenders? My first thought was Alfredo Griffin but his only year that bad was with Cleveland as a rookie (14 games 6 OPS+).
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Ryan Day - Thursday, October 06 2022 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#423289) #
I find Zimmer's 101 PAs in 100 games played really amusing. Sticking on a MLB roster for almost the entire season while rarely being allowed to swing a bat in anger.

I assume there are other great defence / bad bat guys who have been used similarly. My first thought was John McDonald, though he didn't make it to the Zimmer Zone until he was 39, with 91 PAs in 95 games in LA.
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bpoz - Thursday, October 06 2022 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#423290) #
Jays were 2nd best in AL in RS but it did not feel like it to me. I worried about the offense a lot. I guess middle of the pack for RA but I liked our pitching overall. Looks like I may have got it backwards.

Berrios had a good W/L record and Kikuchi .500 W/L. But they both hurt the team by early exits which taxed the pen. Berrios has usually been better and probably will be since he is still young. Kikuchi was a mess. As a SP he was bad too often thereby taxing the pen. As a reliever he was still bad as he had a very difficult time adjusting. He is an unknown for next year. A guy with great stuff (maybe gets good). This year getting poor results which regularly taxed the pen.
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John Northey - Thursday, October 06 2022 @ 03:17 PM EDT (#423304) #
Big trick with the pitching is how our bad days were REALLY bad ERA+ for starters...

Manoah 174, Gausman 116, Stripling 129 - that covers 86 starts

Berrios 74, Kikuchi 75, White 51, Ryu 70, Richards 73, 6 by others (1 or 2 starts each) = 76 starts.

Just a quick and dirty analysis, but that works well for the playoffs as the guys who stunk won't pitch much while the good 3 will.
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uglyone - Thursday, October 06 2022 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#423309) #
Season Stats

* 1.CF Springer 583pa, 132wrc+, 4.7war650
* 2.SS Bichette 697pa, 129wrc+, 4.2war650
* 3.1B Guerrero 706pa, 132wrc+, 2.7war650
* 4.RF Teoscar 535pa, 129wrc+, 2.9war650
* 5.DH Kirk 541pa, 129wrc+, 4.6war650
* 6.3B Chapman 621pa, 117wrc+, 4.3war650
* 7.LF Gurriel 493pa, 114wrc+, 1.3war650
* 8.C Jansen 248pa, 140wrc+, 6.8war650
* 9.2B Espinal 491pa, 99wrc+, 3.1war650

* UT Merrifield 550pa, 88wrc+, 1.8war650
* OF Tapia 433pa, 90wrc+, 0.4war650
* IF Biggio 303pa, 97wrc+, 2.8war650
* C Moreno 73pa, 113wrc+, 6.2war650

* OF Bradley 370pa, 45wrc+, -0.4war650
* OF Zimmer 117pa, 26wrc+, -1.1war650



* SP1 Manoah 6.3ip/gm, 58era-, 5.6awar32
* SP2 Gausman 5.6ip/gm, 87era-, 4.7awar32
* SP3 Berrios 5.4ip/gm, 136era-, 0.5awar32
* SP4 Stripling 4.2ip/gm, 78era-, 3.2awar32
* SP5 White 4.0ip/gm, 140era-, 0.6awar32
* SP6 Kikuchi 3.2ip/gm, 134era-, -0.8awar32


* RP1 Romano 1.0ip/gm, 55era-, 2.0awar65
* RP2 Bass 1.0ip/gm, 39era-, 1.7awar65
* RP3 Pop 1.1ip/gm, 71era-, 1.0awar65
* RP4 Cimber 0.9ip/gm, 73era-, 0.8awwar65
* RP5 Phelps 1.0ip/gm, 73era-, 0.8awar65
* RP6 Garcia 1.0ip/gm, 80era-, 0.8awar65
* RP7 Mayza 0.8ip/gm, 81era-, 0.5awar65
* RP8 Thornton 1.4ip/gm, 106era-, 0.1awar65
* RP9 Richards 1.0ip/gm, 138era-, 0.3awar65
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JohnL - Thursday, October 06 2022 @ 10:40 PM EDT (#423316) #
Rookie of the Year? I just noticed Wilner's podcast talks about the awards "voted by the players, coaches and front office", as opposed to the media-voted awards.

Rookie award went to... John Schneider. Can't argue with that. Manoah is both MVP & Pitcher of the Year. Stripling is the Unsung Hero. I can't argue with any of the choices.
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