David Robertson's pitch mix this year is interesting- 52% cutters, 23% sliders, 25% curveballs.  He uses all three against both lefties and righties, with a few more cutters against righties.  Everything breaks down more than average and the cutter a lot more than average. 

Would be nice to see Hernandez turn it around. It’s not been a good month and the last week was dreadful. It’s a different lineup when he’s slugging.

Jansen now has the best OPS on the team.

Philadelphia should have kept Zimmer to shore up the outfield defense.

Somebody needs to stop feeding Tabler stats on fielding percentage ("the Phillies are second in fielding percentage; this team can field the ball"). This isn't 1970, Pat. It's time to move on.

The Phillies are not a good fielding team, near the bottom of the NL in Total Zone fielding runs above average. Per BRef's DWAR, and the eyeball test, Bohm, Castellanos and Schwarber have all been awful. FG cites the worst offenders as Castellanos, Schwarber, and Hoskins. Both agree that Harper and Vierling have not been good.

A lot of pitches for Gibson so far, hopefully can wear out the philly pen.

The Phillies are well known as a bad fielding team. It was expected and has been true. Is tabby so old school he doesn't pay attention to nl teams? It's also true the defense/offense tradeoff has worked well enough for them. 5-0 is nice, but more please. Focus on hitting weak flyballs to left apparently?

It's also true the defense/offense tradeoff has worked well enough for them.

That's at least up for debate. They are paying Schwarber and Castellanos 20M each for a combined 1 WAR (per both BRef and FG).

Tabler loves fielding percentage

On Sep 13, Jansen was sitting on 2 doubles for the season. Since Sep 14 he has 7 hits: 5 doubles, 1 HR, 1 single.

Stripling is a pleasure to watch. Pitches quickly, moves the ball around the zone and never panics. He may in fact be the second best starter on the team right now.

Shulman from time to time will throw in a DRS number.

The club looks sharp today. Solid defense and a good approach at the plate.

Jansen's BABIP is up from a ghastly .190ish to a still-low .244. According to Statcast, he been maybe a bit unlucky.

Lately, I've been on the John Kruk diet.

This felt like a leverage situation for a leverage reliever. Pop seems like a weird choice

The Phillies look just terrible defensively.  Bohm played Springer's double badly before Stott's 2nd error. 

Nice inning by the Tapman there. Would be nice if he could get back to those June/July numbers.

Bohm played Springer's double badly

Yes, he intentionally moved his body from taking the ball squarely to doing the matador thing, stabbing at it with his backhand. I used to see kids do that in little league when they were afraid of the ball.

Exactly. It was more of a white flag than a red flag though.

I completely understand Philly fans booing. It's been a poor effort.

Up 14-5, it would have been a safe time to pinch-hit Zimmer for Springer.

I am not sure Merryweather knows where any of his pitches are going.

Maybe Schneider knew something- dangerous to pinch-hit Zimmer for Springer only up 9 runs in the eighth.

I hope it’s Pop not Merryweather in the playoff pen.

Yeah I think I’d rather have Thornton than Merryweather. He needs to develop some movement on his fastball.

Merryweather is a month away from being 31yrs old.

Time for the team to stop dreaming.

I used to see kids do that in little league when they were afraid of the ball.

I didn't do that in little league. And I still remember the bad hop that came up and got me square in the eye.

I didn't cry, though. No crying in baseball.

That's the Brad Hand I remember.

I know this is one of the best HR parks in the majors. I still don't know why, but when Jackie Bradley's hitting them out...

I got it in the chin. You play third base and you take your lumps.

This one does nit have the intensity if a playoff game.

That was just the second HR hit off Phelps this season. Mike Trout had the other.

Is this the game that would not end?

And the Pirates could not hold an 8-4 lead in the 9th.

The Pirates should be relegated. Their $70m man taking his glove off to munch seeds mid play is an all timer of “I don’t give a crap”. So we shouldn’t either and punt the team and it’s players to AAA.

I was watching a high level softball finals tonight… seems I missed a thing or two.

I was watching a high level softball finals tonight

So better baseball than we were subjected to.

Games like today make one wonder how the Jays and Phillies are both in playoff positions at the moment. The Phillies are in danger though 2 1/2 up on the Brewers, while the Jays are in excellent shape, 1st WC by 2 over Tampa & Seattle, 7 1/2 ahead of the closest non-playoff teams (Baltimore & ChiSox), all others are 11+ games behind the Jays. Boston's tragic number (total elimination from playoffs) is now 7, same for Minnesota, while ChiSox & Baltimore are at 11. ChiSox playing (tied with Cleveland at the moment), as is Seattle (A's winning 4-1 after 5).

Basically the Jays would need to do a 1987 level swoon to blow it now. Top WC is still a crapshoot (2 games isn't much this time of year) and are 5 1/2 behind the Yankees for top spot (bloody Pirates blowing a 4 run lead in the 9th).

FYI: for Run differential the Yankees & Astros are both over +200, leading the AL by a mile there. Jays are 3rd at +76, then Seattle at +71, Rays +64, Cleveland +36, Twins +10, ChiSox 0, rest are negative (none at -200 but Oakland is close at -191). The Dodgers lead the majors though at +333, no other NL team at +200.

The Pirates should be relegated.

I love the whole concept of relegation. (It would surely discourage tanking.) The four worst teams every year go down to AAA, the four best AAA teams get to play in the Show. If they'd only thought of it a hundred years ago, when the minor leagues were free and independent.

So better baseball than we were subjected to.

WIth relegation the Jays would've been sent down every year from 1977-1981 (1980 they were 2nd worst in AL, tied with the Angels and ahead of Seattle, 1978 they were 2nd worst with 102 losses while Seattle had 104). 1995 they were tied for dead last with Minnesota. 2019 they were clear by losing 95 but KC lost 103, Baltimore lost 108, Detroit 114.

Instead of relegation I think the incentive to lose needs to be removed. Either by a shift in the draft (all non-playoff teams in a lottery with equal odds at the top picks - any weighting keeps an incentive to lose in there) or financial penalties (less revenue sharing money if you lose 90+ 2 years in a row, significantly less if 3 years or more in a row - that'd hit Baltimore big time for losing over 100 3 of the past 4 years, they were half decent in 2020 - pace for 95 losses so under this plan they'd have been hit that year too). Perhaps ala the luxury tax - lose 90+ and get a minor 'so what' penalty, lose 100 and it goes up, 110 and it goes up further. Do it in consecutive years and it goes higher, 3+ years in a row and it really hurts. So Baltimore would be in a LOT of pain going into this year, by 3rd year you lose draft picks or they get shifted down a LOT. If a team keeps doing it for 5+ years then you need to look at revoking the franchise from the owner.

Detroit would've reset its clock last year with 85 losses, same for KC (over 100 in 18 & 19 but just 88 last year, at 89 now so safe to say they'll crack 90 losses again). Washington would be in penalty status this year with 97 losses after 97 last year, Oakland just starting a new cycle after being over 90 in 15/16. This might have stopped Houston from growing like they did - from 2011-2014 they lost 92-111 games each year (over 100 3 years in a row) - very clearly tanking to get better draft picks, they had TV ratings of literally 0 at times they were so bad. Those bad years helped them get Carlos Correa (2012), wasted 2013, on Mark Appel, and blew 2014 on Brady Aiken (never reached, didn't sign), but in 2015 they got Alex Bregman (2nd overall - compensation for failing to sign Aiken) and Kyle Tucker (5th overall). Note: in 2011 they were 11th for draft position and got George Springer (a good draft year - Gerrit Cole, Bauer, Rendon, Lindor, and Baez all went before Springer and the top 29 picks all reached the majors... Jays took Tyler Beede who didn't sign but replaced him the next year using the replacement pick on Marcus Stroman).

Ugly ugly win, but a win is a win is a win. Jays playoff odds at Fangraphs now at 99.9%, but AL East title down to 3.1% (time running out). 6 teams over 96% odds of making the playoffs, only the White Sox (6.3%), Orioles (0.2%), and Twins (0.1%) have a shot at a big upset. So we are down to who has which slot. Jays projected to get the top WC by 2 over the Mariners, 3 over the Rays. That would probably be the best playoff setup possible - Round 1 at home vs Seattle, Round 2 vs Houston, Round 3 an AL East battle vs the Yankees or Rays, then a WS vs the Dodgers (highest odds). It'll be fun.

Thanks for sharing John, but please stop tempting fate with those 1987 references!

The Phillies are in a losing streak and they're playing their last home stand.
It's probably going to be a rough trip to end the season.

The Jays are up by 2 but they don't have the tie-breaker, so the margin is quite thin.
They have 4 games to play in the House of Horrors.
The Mariners still have the favourable schedule.

So all the machinations about border crossings are for not. Canada is changing the rules on the 30th.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canada-to-drop-covid-19-vaccine-requirement-for-entering-country-on/

Wills' stats are remarkable to look at in the context of modern baseball. He was remarkable player. Off the field and post baseball he had many problems and there are quite a few people who didn't view Wills, the person, very kindly - Bill James being one of them if I remember correctly. RIP

So all the machinations about border crossings are for not.

Not not, not knot. Naught.

Wills deserved neither the MVP (Willie Mays)

His own teammate, Tommy Davis led the league with 153 RBIs, 230 hits, and a .346 BAVG. He was third in the voting. Aaron and Robinson had monstrous years as well. Mays was still the best player in the league - he was almost always the best player in the league - but Wills broke a record that had stood for a very long time and he did have a great season. A shortstop who scores 130 runs? Sign me up for some of that.

Danny and Kirky have the 2 best wRC+ on the Jays (min 200 PA's) at 138 and 137 respectively. Has any team had its catchers finish 1-2?

Merryweather throws hard.
He's not particularly wild.
He just needs to make some adjustments--which isn't going to happen this year.

Personally, I think Hatch should go back to the pen and I'd have Thornton starting in AAA for depth.

The 40 roster is going to get crowdy before the rule 5 draft.

Over the past two seasons (just over 400 PA - about what you might be able to squeeze out of a full time, fist string, C in a full season) Jansen has put up 3.5 fWAR and 3.8 bWAR. The offseason is going to be very very interesting on the C front for the Jays.

The question is why Danny hasn't been DHing.

It's fine to suggest that Springer and Guerrero would benefit more from full days off than DH days, but Jansen has not passed them in terms of reasonable offensive expectations so he sits when he doesn't catch.

I'm actually ok with Jansen sitting but I'm not sure that one armed Springer has a higher reasonable offensive production profile than Jansen.

Plate Appearaces as DH

* Gurriel 53
* Collins 45
* Tapia 5
* Jansen 4

One of my all-time favourite baseball books is Maury Wills' autobiography "On the Run: The Never Dull and Often Shocking Life of Maury Wills". He went into graphic detail about his post-career crack cocaine usage -- it's really quite amazing that he lived to be 89. He was like Rickey Henderson, but 25 years earlier, revolutionizing the stolen base and constantly distracting pitchers. He would have absolutely loved the new 2023 rules re: pickoff throw limits.

In fairness, it wasn't clear that Jansen's offensive success wasn't due to more than a relatively small sample variation, even if we acknowledge a genuine underlying improvement. It's not clear where his true offensive level now stands. When Shulman pointed out that Jansen leads the team with an 850 OPS, Tabler weighed in: "what if he hadn't been injured so much this year?" To which I yelled at my TV: "his OPS would be less than 850!".

I said previously that he is too good to not be a starter and because of this, I assume he will be traded. I'm not sure that he's really an 800 OPS hitter, though who knows? His past 400 PA say otherwise. And he doesn't actually have to be to still be a valuable starting catcher. He's too much of a luxury to keep around as a backup. I am happy for him that his game has developed so much, but he is a chit that needs to be cashed.

Enough already.

Foster Griffin has been called up from Buffalo and will wear number 60 according to BlueJays twitter. Julian Merryweather has been optioned to the Herd.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a 23 year old healthy first baseman.  The idea that he's limited to 130 starts at first base is strange to me;  Frank Thomas was making 150 starts at first base at age 24-25.  Give Guerrero Jr. 145 starts at first base, 5-10 at DH and a day or two off per month.  Incidentally, when Guerrero Jr. DHs  he has hit .254/.344/.446 over his career, and when he plays first base he has hit .299/.370/.547.   This year, when Vladdy DHed he hit .242/.319/.433.  There is a "DH penalty", but it seems that his is higher than for most players. 

a day or two off per month.

Every month? He's 23 years old! He had a day off in April. Whaddya want?

I do think that, especially since the managerial change, he's been Dhing a little in order to squeeze Biggio into the lineup.

Two weeks ago Jansen was hitting .218.

Yeah, but .218 is the new .250.

I wonder if and when they’ll give a Pearson a shot. He’s up to 12 innings in 10 games. Be nice to know if he can help a bit in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, interesting game for Gausman tonight. Has had HR issues recently and these fellas can clearly hit.

Jansen got back in the lineup on July 12, and from there through the end of August he hit .210/.295/.370, which is probably more in line with his career performance than the last 10 games.

It's good enough for me, mind you. He's still my number one catcher with an OPS of .655. He's just not the first guy I look at to DH when Kirk is catching.

I agree.  The club wants to give Biggio extra work.  They could have taken some of the DH games Guerrero Jr. had and given them to Biggio and Jansen depending on handedness.  Combined with some work in corner OF work for Biggio and a few days of rest for Bichette and Chapman, there was enough to keep Biggio in the starting lineup 3-4 days per week.  And I'd rather have Biggio or Jansen DHing than Guerrero Jr.   Vladdy gets jumpy and that's not a good thing when you're DHing. 

Wills had the mantle of hotness back then

It always helps to do something - in this case, steal more than 100 bases - that has never been done before. Willie Mays was just submitting another Willie Mays season. Ho. Hum.

Royals have finally fired Dayton Moore.

2yr Stats

*1.Guerrero 151
*2.Springer 133
*3.Kirk 128
*4.Teoscar 127
*5.Bichette 125
*6.Jansen 121
*7.Chapman 113
*8.Gurriel 111
*9.Espinal 105
*10.Biggio 94

I think this is the end of the Julian Merryweather era. Until today they hadn’t used his final option this season. Now they have, and that means he can’t be shuttled down to AAA next year. And without that flexibility he’s not roster-able.

The team could carry him through spring training and give him one more chance to show that April 2021 wasn't a small sample mirage. But I think it’s more likely he’s jettisoned before the coming Rule 5 roster crunch.

I think this is the end of the Julian Merryweather era.

He looked like Tom Henke in April of 2021, teasing us quite a great deal, but has looked quite the opposite ever since. He'll get his chances elsewhere.

Jansen is a good catcher but has not hit well enough in his career. He is still capable of being a being a regular rather than a backup. Kirk is a great hitting C who had 400+ ABs this year. His catching ability is possibly good. Moreno has impressed me with his arm. I think it is incredible.

The question is trade a C or go with 3. Kirk stays. Danny has 2 more years of control. Gabe M has maybe 6 years of control. We know that Kirk can hit!! Can Danny and Gabe also hit? We don't know.

Has Danny finally developed offensively at age 27 or is he having an above normal hitting period. He always had the good bb/k and power.

If Danny is traded, it is at his high. If Moreno is traded it is for his high prospect value. Either way Kirk is going to catch a lot. So the other C is not a 100+ game regular.

This reminds me of the Borders/Myers situation.

Statcast says that Merryweather has been particularly unlucky.  He hasn't been good, but nowhere near as bad as his ERAs would suggest.  In terms of pitches, his slider has not been hit at all over the last two years.  His changeup has barely been hit.  The problem is his fastball, which due to lack of movement and poor location, has been hit hard over and over again.  What he needs to do is work on a 2 seamer or a cutter.  He will get chances (and he should), but first he has work to do.  Pitchers.

It’s likely not about the splits. Biggio has been cold, and Merrifield typically gets a start every few days. They didn’t acquire a guy due 6.75MM next year to be a spare part, he has just performed like one. He is better than we’ve seen, and they must hope to get him going.

Thumbs up to the Merryweather-Griffin swap. Might as well have the bullpen as fresh as possible heading into 4 at the House of Horrors.

92-93 - I hope that you are right about Merrifield but it has been two full seasons since he was productive offensively. Last year he was a good player due to his defence and base running. By the eye test and by the numbers, both of those look to have taken a significant step backwards this year (which would be understandable for a player of his age). I think that there is a real chance that Merrifield is a bit piece in terms of utility. He's likely to be better than Otto Lopez next year but even that isn't that clear to me.

And bWAR agrees that Mantle's 1956-57 peak is infinitesimally better than Mays' 1964-65. It could be wrong because of the defence issue.

Ah, but was Mays at age 33-34 that much better in CF than Mantle at 24-25, enough to make up for Mantle's edge with the bat?

Late September in the thick of a pennant race is an unusual time to be worrying about the implications for next year.  Over and over again, the club has been satisfied to have two guys of their top 10 out of the lineup when only one needed to be.  Gurriel will come back and a left-hander will start, and you could certainly give Merrifield an opportunity then. 

Mickey Mantle or Willie Mays... Can we say the N.L. was a better league at the time?

...was the better league? was the best league?

"This is the better coffee I've ever tasted!"

To those who say we had quality depth in AAA, I say, ladies and gentlemen, Foster Griffin.  I don't think I've been less enthused about a September call up in my life. 

to be fair to the team, I assume this is some sort of options / asset management move, but if I'm Matt Gage, I'm a bit pissed. 

looking at the roster, Merryweather isn't the only fungible guy ... there's no rule v roster crunch when you can literally ditch a dozen guys off the 40 man this offseason and replace them with similar guys, if you feel like playing spin the wheel with your depth.  who are you guys worried about losing?  i admit to not paying attention as much since they ditched so many teams, so perhaps i'm sleeping on this.

Count me a believer in Jansen and Kirk as a tandem going forward.  I'd try trading Moreno before Jano, simply because I think he's more valuable to us than anyone else.  there are old school cliches for guys like him, but some of those old school cliches resonate for a reason.  Moreno, on the other hand, has tremendous utility to everyone.  I'd be looking at trading him for a young CF, like John Northey had been suggesting with Carroll till he played himself out of the convo.  Moreno in a package for Bryan Reynolds and a controllable high leverage reliever?  something like that?
but with Kirk and Jansen catching, hopefully, almost every game, and kirk the primary DH?  agreed that vladdy doesn't need all the DH days.  this lineup is deep when healthy.  love seeing the team maximize that at catcher and DH.  hopefully they can stop having 4 spare parts to fill out the OF and just go get an everyday CF. 

The crowd in Philly seems to be asleep. Yesterday's crowd was a hangover from Monday Night Football, then a 4-hour 9-inning game.

The more fully integrated NL was a much better league...WAR calculations give some credit for that. the AL's best team was also the yankees pretty much every year, so mantle missed the best competition, so he loses a bit there too. Mays in CF in his mid 30s likely was a better fielder than mid 20s Mantle. Mantle's rep was always...fine? I thought anyway. Fast doesn't equal great out there...

Wheeler has to stop the losing!!

Same thing with the ball-strike today.

The more fully integrated NL

I think we might see this as a bigger thing than it really was. The Dodgers and Giants definitely led the way, but Cleveland and the White Sox weren't that far behind. However, the Dodgers or Giants were in the World Series every year. Meanwhile the eternal AL reps took their sweet time about it. We do tend to see the 1950s through a kind of New York prism. It took about as long for the Phillies and Cardinals to integrate their teams as it took the Tigers and Red Sox.

Probably more important is the fact that the NL had by far the best of these players. Around the middle of the decade, several NL teams came up with a Cooperstown bound immortal - Aaron, Robinson, Banks, Clemente (and the superstar needs a roommate.) The AL teams were merely adding run of the mill good players - Luke Easter, Earl Battey, Al Smith. Connie Johnson and Bob Boyd. Good players, largely forgotten.

fruckin' right, Mayza, that was awesome.

Pinch hitting Biggio to hit for Espinal with a man on first and two outs against a LHP was an unorthodox move.

I presume Schneider was hoping Biggio could end this duel with an impromptu homer.

and BOOM.



that's some sweet tasting high leverage action right there.

I think something's up with Espinal.

Tabbie gets to read the graphic showing the Phillies 27th in DRS and 29th in OAA after praising their Fielding % last night.

I think something's up with Espinal.

Could be. I'm watching the Phillies' broadcast.

The left on left PH blew their minds.

And at least 3 obvious balls called strikes on Blue Jays, each time being 3rd strikes if I remember.  The Phillies had one, perhaps. 

What a nice play by Yimi Garcia. Fella does seem to have ice in his veins.

"left side discomfort" for Espinal.

Two games in a row with Bo making a late game error. Hopefully its just random.

Romano as a pitcher has a great fastball that he hesitates to use.

Romano is afraid of throwing the fastball to a good left-handed hitter.  You just can't throw slider after slider. 

Death by pinpricks.

Bad time of the season for the back end of the pen to break down. In my view it’s always been a risk. Interesting to see if they can right things quickly.

Agreed it’s a little weird how Romano seems to fall in love with his slider sometimes, even when he misses with it by a mile. Gotta at least show a fastball out of the zone to remind batters it’s there and it’s fearsome.

Are the bullpen mounds bad in this park or something? A lot of guys coming in and missing by a lot...

Groan…. That’s gotta be the weakest contact I’ve ever seen in a 5-5 game.

damn damn damn.

See you all on Monday. Watching games at the Trop are bad for my health, doctor says.

What's funny is that it probably won't take 91 wins to make the playoffs this year.

At least Gausman looked sharp after some iffy games.

And I don’t understand why they would use Cimber rather than Bass in extras. Much better odds for a strikeout.

Anyway when they hit into two double plays with the bases loaded it’s clearly not their night.

The NL did win 19 of 20 All-Star games, from 1963 to 1982.

Biggio (324/366) and Espinal (322/370) look like OBP/SLG clones.

Manoah and Gausman have each other's ERAs according to FIP. Manoah 2.40 (3.42 FIP). Gausman 3.32 (2.37 FIP).

With a 10-6 W-L record, Adam Cimber has far more decisions than any other reliever on the team. Of course, much of this is a result of the types of games he comes into.

After a terrible start, Marcus Semien is having a good season: bWAR 5.5, fWAR 4.1. His 109 OPS+ is also his career mark.

Andres Gimenez continues his stealth star season: bWAR 6.5, fWAR 5.5. He's channeling Chase Utley with a similar across-the-board skill set including a high HBP count.

Gimenez's stealth partner in the NL is Tommy Edman: bWAR 6.3, fWAR 5.4.

Fellow third basemen Eugenio Suarez and Matt Chapman are having awfully similar offensive seasons. ES 235/335/470. MC 238/328/459.

The AL leader in singles is Jose Abreu. His .142 ISO is easily his career low.

Dylan Cease could be the rare Cy Young winner that leads the league in walks. I'm assuming it is rare. I haven't checked.

As a stark reminder of how little I follow the NL these days, the leader in pitcher appearances and the leader in pitcher HBP are two guys I have never heard of: Brebbia and Lodolo.

Okay, back to your everyday business.

Thanks, Chuck.  I'll take errata over errors every day.

two guys I have never heard of: Brebbia and Lodolo.

Seen Brebbia in boxscores, but danged if I know the team.

LHP Lodolo,the NL leader in HBP's, was one of the 2 best college pitchers his draft year. Reds took him at 7, leaving the Jays the RHP at 11. He's the guy who leads the AL in HBP's.

the rare Cy Young winner that leads the league in walks. I'm assuming it is rare.

I believe it's only happened once, when Bob Turley won it in 1958.