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Game Threads Baltimore at Toronto, September 16-18
Jobu, Jobu. Alas, mighty Jobu. Eighteen runs in the last six games? Have you lost your powers? Is it time to summon a new guiding spirit?

It's time. It's those Orioles again.


Once more unto the breach...

Dishonour not your mothers; now attest
That those whom you call'd fathers did beget you.


The Jays didn't see the Orioles until the middle of June, by which time they were already playing much better than the team that had stumbled through the first part of the season. After starting the year 14-24, they had begun to steer the ship in the proper direction, and took a 26-35 mark into the Dome by the Lake.

June 13: Baltimore 1 Toronto 11 - The Jays busted this one open in the fifth when Logan Gillaspie came pout of the pen with a couple of runners aboard, and the Orioles down 3-0. With two outs, five straight hits plated six more runs and it was all over.

June 14: Baltimore 6 Toronto 5 - A two run HR by Mountcastle put the Orioles up 3-1 but Chapman tied it up with one of his own. But Kikuchi instantly gave up a go-ahead HR to Hays. The Jays got the tying run aboard in the eighth, but Jorge Lopez shut them down.

June 15: Baltimore 6 Toronto 7 - The Jays took a quick five run lead, but Yimi Garcia (of all people) couldn't hold it - with two out in the eighth, he was suddenly touched up for doubles by Mullins and Hays and a game-tying HR from (who else?) Mountcastle. We went to extras. Cimber stranded the Zombie Runner in the top of the inning, and Guerrero cashed him in the bottom half.

June 16: Baltimore 10 Toronto 2 - Gausman's original team kicked him all around the yard, scoring six runs in the third inning to put this one away early.

The Blue Jays didn't make their first visit to Camden Yards until early August. The third game was rained out, to be made up in September, leaving a two game set that did not go well for the visitors.

Aug 8: Toronto 4 Baltimore 7 - Kikuchu gave up a three run HR to Urias in the first, and back-to-back HRs to Santander and Mountcastle in the third.

Aug 9: Toronto 5 Baltimore 6 - Manoah didn't have it on this day, falling behind 3-1 early, and working out of trouble all day. But he fought his way through five, and the Jays jumped in front on Bichette's three run HR off Bryan Baker. But in the eighth, Rough Ned Odor smacked a two run HR off Yimi Garcia, and Bautista closed it out.

By the time the Orioles made their return visit to Toronto the following week, they had become a positive annoyance. They sported a 59-55 record and had closed to just 2.5 games behind the second place Jays.

Aug 15: Baltimore 7 Toronto 3 - Mountcastle hit yet another HR off Kikuchi in the third, and the Orioles tacked on three more in the fourth.

Aug 16: Baltimore 4 Toronto 2 - Springer singled and Guerrero homered to start the game, and the Jays put their bats away for the rest of the day. Manoah was absolutely dominant until Mullins and Rutschman suddenly went back-to-back on him with two out in the fifth. They pushed together two more in the next inning, and now stood just half a game behind the Jays, who had now fallen into third place.

Aug 17: Baltimore 1 Toronto 6 - A tremendous pitcher's duel between Voth (six shutout innings of two-hitter) and Stripling (perfect for the first six.) The starters were both gone when the Jays kicked around three Orioles relievers for six runs in the seventh, with the big blows being two run doubles from Espinal and Kirk.

And was it just last week that the Jays returned to play four in Camden. They held a 2.5 game lead on the Orioles, and proceedings began with a double-header to make up for the June rainout.

Sep 5 (1): Toronto 7 Baltimore 3 - The Jays went ahead in the third, and the game stayed close until RBI singles from Springer, Guerrero, and Bichette put it away.

Sep 5 (2): Toronto 8 Baltimore 4 - Bo Bichette hit three HRs and drove in five, to make life very easy for Jose Berrios.

Sep 6: Toronto 6 Baltimore 9 - Mitch White took a 3-0 lead into the third and completely imploded - the Orioles scored five times, and every time the Jays got within one they'd add another. They tacked on three more in the eighth when an exhausted Trevor Richards simply couldn't get the third out of his inning.

Sep 7: Toronto 4 Baltimore 1 - Manoah pitched eight brutally efficient ininngs of three hitter, and the Jays scored three runs in the fifth on three singles, a walk, and a Rutschman error.

Baltimore still leads the season series 7-6. This must not stand.

I see you stand like greyhounds in the slips,
Straining upon the start. The game's afoot:

Matchups!

Fri 16 Sep - Lyles (10-10, 4.62) vs Richards (3-2, 5.59)
Sat 17 Sep - Bradish (3-6, 5.01) vs Berrios (10-5, 5.07)
Sun 18 Sep - Kremer (7-5, 3.34) vs Manoah (14-7, 2.43)
Posted by Magpie on Friday, September 16 2022 @ 11:45 AM EDT.
Baltimore at Toronto, September 16-18 | 206 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#422351) #
It seems like a warlike theme here, so a quick look at what WAR says about the Orioles.  Their leader (despite playing only 98 games) is Adley Rutschman.  You know he's hit well (and will probably hit even better in coming years) and that he's a good defender if a bit rough around the edges (and will probably be even better in coming years).  But, I'll bet you did not know that he's added 4.6 runs baserunning (the Blue Jay leader is George Springer at 4.7 in more games).  Add it up and he likely would have been one of the top 5 players in the league had he played a full season.  The rest of the offensive players have been tolerable, but nothing more.  Did you know that Ryan Mountcastle has been a 1.3 fWAR player- a below average player?  He's got 6 more games with the Blue Jays to make his way up to average. And as for the pitchers, they've been pretty decent, with the starters iffy and the relievers bullpen very good.  The most important pitcher on the club is Felix Bautista, although he does trail Dean Kremer in WAR. 

And as for Gunnar Henderson, he's at a 153 wRC+.  His defensive numbers are not good overall, but they've been good at shortstop and poor at second and third base.  It's easy to see that they will just stick him at a position next year and let him play and he's going to be very, very good. 
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ISLAND BOY - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#422352) #
I think a lot of us would accept taking 3 of 5 from the Rays although 4 of 5 would have given the Jays more breathing space. Now taking 2 out of 3 from the Orioles would be satisfactory, but a sweep would pretty well kill their chances at the playoffs. Let's do it!
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Dewey - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#422353) #
I ask you, is there another baseball site on the web that would so aptly allude to Henry V, and show the illustrious Olivier as Prince Hal to boot!?

Glad I’m here.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#422354) #
In Henry V,  the quote above continues:

be copy not to men of grosser blood
and teach them how to war

Shakespeare as an early Moneyballer.  Who knew? 
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dalimon5 - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 12:47 PM EDT (#422355) #
Mr Green, thanks for the excellent summary and salient points on the Orioles. Fascinating stuff about their catcher and 1B.
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92-93 - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#422356) #
Fresh arms tonight: Merryweather, Kikuchi, Bass, Mayza, Garcia, and Romano. Maybe Cimber for a brief appearance.

Bradley has a .492 OPS with the Jays and has gotten semi-regular ABs lately while Zimmer can't buy an AB. Veteran presence.

My lineup tonight would have Guerrero DH, Biggio 1B, Tapia LF, and Zimmer CF. Give Springer the day off with PH duty.
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ISLAND BOY - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#422358) #
I find that Bradley is excellent on defense and does get the occasional hit. Zimmer is excellent on defense but could swing with either end of his bat and get the same results.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#422359) #
Seems like a good day to call up Nate Pearson.
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jerjapan - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 01:32 PM EDT (#422360) #
yes it does.  i heard Pearson was throwing, is he ready?  better than Richards at least. 

Cedric Mullins is at a 3.1 fWAR, but other than him and the rookies, it is a pretty no-name bunch of position players in Baltimore.
I'd rather see Zimmer pitching than at the plate, regardless of JBJ's struggles. 

Really interesting conversation between Ben Wagner and Caleb Joseph at the end of the radio broadcast yesterday.  Joseph was talking openly about how low his minor league pay was even in AAA, even for 6 year free agents, and how the reduced September rosters hurt some of those AAAA players who need that sort of money once in a while.
never heard that candid a conversation on the subject before.  times are changing! 
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Magpie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#422363) #
Henry V, and show the illustrious Olivier as Prince Hal to boot!?

Brando once said that some parts are so well written that they're actor-proof - it's impossible to do them badly (he was speaking specifically about the famous scene with Rod Steiger in the taxi.) He was probably full of it, but this one does come pretty close!
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hypobole - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#422364) #
We still want to trade Bichette, Ricky T., and more for Juan Soto?

Since Aug 3 (Soto's 1st game for Padres).

Soto: 35 games 112 wRC+, 0.2 fWAR
Bo: 40 games, 198 wRC+, 2.7 fWAR
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hypobole - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#422365) #
If the starters keep pitching the way they are now, Manoah gets playoff game 1. Is it crazy to think it's Stripling who should get game 2? He won't, but he should.
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Michael - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#422366) #
Yeah, the recent salary increase means AAA players make $700/week, which is better than it was but still a long way from majors or a good salary. But that is only for the 22 weeks a year they play minor league games. The major league minimum salary is $700k/year (so about $4,321 a game - I'm not sure if it is paid per game or per time period of the season). So about a half week 4 game call up could earn a player more than a full 22 weeks in AAA (22*700 = 15,400; 4*4,321 = 17,284).
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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#422367) #
It's not crazy.  Indeed you can make a case for Stripling being the Game 1 pitcher in the Wild card series, with Manoah as the Game 2 starter.  Presuming that Manoah is the better bet to give you 7 or even 8 good innings, it allows you to use the pen (and in particular, Romano) more in Games 1 and 3 (if necessary).  I wouldn't do it, but I'd understand if the manager did. 
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greenfrog - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 02:41 PM EDT (#422368) #
Stripling recently emphasized how good he feels right now. He said he may have benefited from the extra rest he had while on the IL. So that’s another reason the Jays might want to consider starting him in the postseason.
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John Northey - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 02:57 PM EDT (#422369) #
Biggest Jays news might be Vlad wanting to sign a long term deal this winter. Of course, we have no idea the dollars he wants or term, but I'd be OK with a 10 year deal at $30 mil per. I suspect this year is probably as bad as he'll be - 3.7 bWAR, so lets go with 3 - 3 WAR is worth around $27 mil a year. His peak is probably around 7 (6.8 last year) which is worth about $63 mil. So his range would suggest that a $30 per year deal over 10 years should work out (prime is normally 25-29 area so we haven't hit that). The Jays were reported to be working with Bo's agent on a deal for him last winter but didn't get there. Ideally you lock those 2 up for 10 years so the team's core is set. Then build around that.
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Kasi - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 03:06 PM EDT (#422370) #
Agreed hypobole. Like do we really love Teoscar that much that we want a version of him with a better bat at the cost of gutting our farm and having to spend 30 mil/year? Remember his value is all in his bad he is way worse defensively than Teoscar and worse on the base paths too. Anyone offering him a long term contract is going to get burnt buying on an offensive only player whose offense isn’t great enough (no he’s not Ted Williams) to offset his other weaknesses and the cost of obtaining him.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#422371) #
It's mostly about his free agency years.  If it's a 10 year contract, you're talking about really the 7 years from age 27 to 33 inclusive.  Eddie Murray generated 33 bWAR during that time frame.  Vladdy could do worse than that and could do better; it's not a bad median for him.  And then you've got the 3 arb years.  He's not going to get paid Trout money- that's for sure.

Anyways, it's probably best to avoid thinking about this after the mid-point in September.  They've got a World Series to win.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 03:20 PM EDT (#422372) #
I never did want to trade Bichette and Tiedemann for Soto, but how they've done since the trade has little to do with it.  They've both played full seasons in 2021 and 2022, so even with Bichette's incredible run, Soto has been a somewhat better player.   But Bichette has an extra year of arb eligibility and Tiedemann is very valuable (and it's also true that the trade isn't optimal from a position perspective- cornering the market on corner outfielders isn't usually a great strategy).  So, no. 
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Petey Baseball - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#422373) #
I wonder if the Jays don't put Springer back on the 10-day to rest up and get the elbow as right as it can be for the postseason. All indications are it is structural damage that can only be fixed with surgery, however, after the last DL stint he emerged hot as a pistol.

The timing would be perfect; he'd get back for the Yankee series, where ideally, the Jays would still have an outside chance at the division. Even if they didn't, he'd still get enough at bats to get ready for the wildcard series.
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Magpie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 03:28 PM EDT (#422374) #
I wonder if the Jays don't put Springer back on the 10-day to rest up

The problem is they already have one of their starting outfielders on the IL.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#422375) #
Springer had an "anti-inflammatory injection", presumably a cortisone shot, at that time (as the Rays did with Shane McLanahan).  There's concern that repeated cortisone injections may damage the cartilage (per the Mayo Clinic) and so usually at least 6 weeks between shots and no more than 3 or 4 in a year.  Springer might fit within those guidelines, but that might wait a week or so longer and bring him back strong for the playoffs.  Interesting decision.
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Petey Baseball - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 03:34 PM EDT (#422376) #
I meant George's elbow, not shoulder.

I should add to that; the hot streak after the DL stint in August, Springer still didn't show home run power. At this point though, with his elbow's condition that isn't going to be coming back this season.

I think it's important they at least get the August version of him back, though. Without much contribution from Springer, that's a pretty thin lineup even with Bo's streak.
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Magpie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 03:47 PM EDT (#422377) #
Fun fact: Yusei Kikuchi is 0-3, 9.00 against the Orioles who basically drove him from the rotation. He's 4-4, 4.88 against the rest of the league.
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Petey Baseball - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#422378) #
That's a great point Mike. Undoubtedly, the Jays have a plan with him and it's likely we're in the middle of that six week waiting period now. There's some permutations to this situation of course; how George body would respond to another cortisone injection, other health factors unique to him, etc. But just from the outside, the eye test showed he looked great physically after the first one. You'd have to think they'd do it again as soon as they can.
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Magpie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#422379) #
Yimi Garcia, too - 1-1, 13.50 against the Orioles and 3-3, 1.61 against the rest of the league.
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Hodgie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#422380) #
Even 6 weeks is really pushing it, the sports med doctors from Hockey Canada that I frequent recommend at least 12 weeks between cortisone shots at a minimum. Of course, if George had no cartilage left in his elbow like my hip he wouldn't have to worry as much.
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bpoz - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#422381) #
A 10 year deal for Vlad or anyone is risky in case the player gets injured or declines drastically IMO.

Has any player made a 5+ year contract a good thing for the team? Maybe Votto's LT deal is a good one. V Wells was not good.

AA in Atlanta is giving out 5+ year deals but the total $ is not crippling.

The TB deal for Longoria was a good LT deal. If I remember correctly the total $ was a bit low. I am not sure Longoria even had 1 full season in the majors before signing.

Moreno & Kirk can probably be had cheap. Cheap= decent $ and term that will not cripple a budget. Kirk's weight will be the risky factor for the Jays I guess. Also anyone can get injured anytime. Springer for example.

I tried to be fair, open minded and honest in my post but I have to admit that I was biased in my opinion against LT deals. This could be a general human failing but I don't know.

Another good LT contract was Barry Bonds IMO. Then how about LT contracts for J Franco and B Colon? 5 years was nothing to them. I am proving myself wrong it seems.
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grjas - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#422382) #
I hope they burnt their book on Mountcastle and bribed another team for theirs. Any team.
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Chuck - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 04:13 PM EDT (#422383) #
and how the reduced September rosters hurt some of those AAAA players who need that sort of money once in a while.

Tangentially related, CBC has started airing its 4-part series on the 1972 Summit Series. In episode 1, Phil Esposito mentioned that he spent his summers working at Algoma Steel to make ends meet. And it was only Bobby Orr's urging that convinced Phil (who then convinced brother Tony) to participate in the series at all, thereby foregoing their much needed revenue from their summer hockey school.

Baseball and hockey cards of the time often made mention of what the players did in the off-season to earn money. Richie Hebner dug graves. Tim Horton owned a doughnut store. Henry V invaded France.

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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#422384) #
That makes sense to me, Hodgie. 

We don't know Springer's history of injections nor the state of his elbow, and Springer of course will listen to medical advice on the point.  All we can do really is root for him, knowing that he's in a spot.  The club should probably give Merrifield some work in centerfield to keep their options open against LH pitchers in case Springer can't go. 
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Magpie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 04:17 PM EDT (#422385) #
at least 12 weeks between cortisone shots at a minimum.

I got a shot in my wrist, after it had driven me mad for almost a year, and it's been fine ever since. That was 18 years ago, so I naturally regard it as The Miracle Cure.
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Magpie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 04:44 PM EDT (#422386) #
Henry V invaded France.

A fascinating campaign, mostly one long disaster redeemed by the unexpected triumph at Agincourt.

Everyone who plays Henry, from Olivier to Branagh to Hiddleston to Chalamet decides they don't need to bother with the fact that he had a pretty hideous scar on his face, from an arrow at the Battle of Shrewsbury. The shaft broke off, leaving the tip embedded five inches deep in his skull. He was saved by the best medicine the 15th century had to offer, but just imagine - no anesthetic. He was sixteen years old at the time.
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92-93 - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#422387) #
Richards being available to open tonight after 29 pitches last night is a welcome development, even if it's a curious decision.

Padres fans are probably as concerned with Soto's numbers since the trade deadline (112wRC+ 0.2fWAR) as Jays fans are with Guerrero's: 108wRC+ 0.3fWAR
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Chuck - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#422388) #
I think Schneider likes employing Richards as an opener since he can count on a surfeit of LH batters. Whether that will matter a tinker's cuss to this battered and bruised version of Richards, we'll soon find out. Those of us not on Apple+ will need Marconi's help to find out.
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greenfrog - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 05:22 PM EDT (#422389) #
Winning two out of three would be great, but for the love of…just don’t get swept.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#422390) #
I don't think so, 92-93.  "Curious" isn't the way I would put it.  Richards has been a below average relief pitcher over the last 2 years.  He's coming off a 29 pitch outing where he struggled, and can't be expected to perform as well as his average.  It looks to me like they're planning to roll the dice with Kikuchi for some bulk innings, and evidently they want a pitcher who can counter lefties at the outset. However,the beginning of the game is a medium leverage situation and Richards isn't fit for that today.  So send out Mayza then Merryweather for the righties at the bottom of the order and then Kikuchi and maybe White for an inning . Richards can come on later on if the game is out of hand, but really I wish that they had someone else around to pitch.  If the club is ahead, Romano can probably go 2 innings tonight.   
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Michael - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#422391) #
Manny Ramirez was pretty good LT value when he signed for 8 years/160M in the 2000-2001 offseason (his age 29-36 seasons). He put up WAR of 5.2, 6.0, 5.4, 4.1, 4.4, 4.5, 1.1, and 6.0 in the following 8 seasons of the deal. That's about $4.3M per WAR which is about half what the going rate is/was.

2001 142 G 1.014 OPS 162 OPS+
2002 120 G 1.097 OPS 184 OPS+
2003 154 G 1.014 OPS 160 OPS+
2004 152 G 1.009 OPS 152 OPS+
2005 152 G 0.982 OPS 153 OPS+
2006 130 G 1.058 OPS 165 OPS+
2007 133 G 0.881 OPS 126 OPS+
2008 153 G 1.031 OPS 166 OPS+

Got to like that outcome of an 8 year deal. He still had 2 more goodish years after that (155 OPS+ in 104 G; 138 OPS+ in 90 G). I think that's pretty close to as good as you can expect from a long term deal signed with a free agent (as opposed to locking in a young player pre-free agent).
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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#422392) #
Coke to Chuck.

I'm also not on Apple+.  I'll be avoiding the temptation to throw scorn on the day of rest. Alternatively if one prefers the Gordon Lightfoot version of after sundown, I don't want have anything to confess.  Pre-game non-scorn: Go Raimel!
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John Northey - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#422393) #
The 10 year deal is a thing now. Logically there is a lot of risk. Now, Vlad is 23, a 2 time all-star, 135 OPS+ lifetime. Pretty darn good numbers. Lets look back at others who were 2 time all-stars before age 25...

There are 121 players who qualify, the most ASG's goes to Orlando Cepeda with 6 (they played 2 a year 3 times he made it 59-61). 70 of the 121 got HOF votes, with 33 making it so far. Ones who haven't include Willie Randolph, Rusty Staub, Jose Canseco, Jack Clark, Fernando Valenzuela, Dwight Gooden, Don Mattingly, Darryl Strawberry, Dave Stieb, and many others whose names many here would instantly recognize as very good players with a case for the HOF (some weak, some strong).

Cut down to 2 ASG's and you get many HOF'ers but the one who caught my eye was Harmon Killebrew - another guy who played that double ASG year thus getting 2 before 24. A slugging 3B/1B/LF whose dWAR was negative most years. Lifetime 256/376/509 143 OPS+ - if Vlad can duplicate that he'd have a very fine career yet he is actually ahead of it in many respects as he has hit 300 last year (Killer only hit 300 as an 18 year old over 15 PA). He only slugged 600 once (age 25) but 5 times had a 400 OBP (inc his age 18 season). I see Vlad as a reasonable risk for a long term deal. Yeah, his fitness might be an issue but his worst case is probably his rookie year (age 20, 272/339/433) with last year his likely peak (311/401/601) although I wouldn't be shocked if he has a 340 avg or something one year and wins a batting title. Bo I'd also take a risk on although he is a year older which is significant when projecting, but he also plays SS. A 2B I'd be very scared to sign long term (see Alomar and many other premium 2B who fell apart in their early to mid 30's) but in 4 seasons he has had a 120+ OPS+ each year unless he slumps big time to end the year (oh god no). In fact, I bet this would shock many, Bo's OPS+ is 128 right now, the only time he did better was in 2019 when he had a 144 over 212 PA. After his poor start and hovering around a 100 most of the season this late push has been fantastic.
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Chuck - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 05:49 PM EDT (#422394) #
Why wouldn't Guerrero's agent keep his client mum on talk of a long-term deal. Better to have a bounce back season next year and then bring up the topic.
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John Northey - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 05:57 PM EDT (#422395) #
Long term deals are a crapshoot - you are often signing guys after their peak hoping for a second peak. But signing young you are often laughing. Cleveland in the 90's tried this but didn't do 8+ year deals - they got Albert Belle for 3, Kenny Lofton twice for 4 years each (5 time all-star during that, with a 1 year gap to Atlanta then came back to Cleveland) among others. The only deal that didn't work was due to the player dying iirc.

If you ignore the PED's Barry Bonds and A-Rod both signed great deals when they switched teams - Bonds to SF pre 1993, A-Rod's Texas deal which many tore apart but actually was a good one just poorly handled (he easily was worth it, but Texas signed a ton of others to overpriced deals that flopped thus putting them in a tough position). Mike Trout's first deal was solid, as were all of Alberta Pujols' ones pre-Anaheim, Joey Votto's is from 2014-23 producing 30 WAR so far (odds are next year won't help it).

To me the bottom line is to not assume more than 3 WAR per year on a longer term deal. If you go based on that you should be OK. If you bet on 5 WAR per year you need too high a level of play over 5-10 years to make it work IMO. Remember, 1 WAR is generally worth $9 to $10 million. So a 3 WAR guy is worth $27-30 per year. So a 10 year $300 million deal just lands in that area. I could see the Jays trying for a 13 year $300 mil deal (spread the cash out a bit further, ensure you have Vlad & Bo for their peak and decline if they are near HOF status then without risking more than they are likely to be worth over 10). Ideally you set it up so there is space for more free agent signings over the next few years too. Remember, the Jays easily have the highest TV viewership in MLB thanks to the exclusive Canadian market. There is no reason Rogers couldn't do a $200+ million payroll (Yankee/Dodger territory even at $250+) if they wanted to maximize that viewership.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 06:07 PM EDT (#422397) #
Why wouldn't Guerrero's agent keep his client mum on talk of a long-term deal

Now, there's one right in my wheelhouse.  The agent probably tried, but can you imagine trying to keep Vladdy quiet about something? On a DH day,  you'd need to sedate and muzzle him. 
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scottt - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#422399) #
The minimum salary in MLB is 700K.

Salaries in the minors range from 19K to 187K with a median of 44.6K.
The minimum salary for players on the 40 roster is 57.2K the first year and 114.1K after that.

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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#422400) #
Subterranean pre-sundown Richards scorn worked like a charm!
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Cracka - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#422401) #
That's got to be the first time in MLB history that a pitcher has allowed 5 ER in the 9th inning and then strikes out the side in the 1st inning the very next day.
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Petey Baseball - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#422402) #
Mike and Chuck, you do realize you can watch the game free with just an Apple ID?

I bought an Apple TV a couple years ago thinking my days of paying for cable/satelitte were over. Boy was I wrong. The best was the Sportsnet Now app freezing ten seconds before Kawhi's shot vs the Sixers.

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Chuck - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#422404) #
you do realize you can watch the game free with just an Apple ID?

Thanks for the info. I downloaded the Apple TV app to my iPad and I can watch the game without a subscription (trial or otherwise).

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Magpie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 07:49 PM EDT (#422405) #
Merryweather hasn't gone longer than 2 IP or 28 pitches all season. What now?
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Nigel - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 07:52 PM EDT (#422406) #
I'd probably try to squeeze another out or two out of Merryweather but that would risk the dreaded mid inning pitching change so that isn't likely the chosen path.

Hands up those who had Jansen and Vladdy essentially tied for OPS on Sept. 16 in the pool?
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John Northey - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#422408) #
Sigh. So predictable. Why Kikuchi is up in the majors at this point is beyond me. You can't have him on the mound.
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Nigel - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#422409) #
I'll say this again. That they haven't optioned Kikutchi is just a crazy level of obstinacy. They have had and will have a number of bullpen days in September - important games. They need guys who can give them 2-3 non-flammable innings if needed.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:04 PM EDT (#422410) #
Too late for me to regret not throwing some scorn Kikuchi's way earlier.
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Magpie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#422411) #
I posted his numbers against the Orioles! But do they listen to me? Do they ever?
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Cracka - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#422412) #
Kikuchi can't really be optioned. It would be unprecedented for someone on his 2nd MLB free agent contract and with that many years of top-level experience (factoring in Japan). The CBA rules imply yes, but that's a point of debate and would almost certainly bring about a grievance if it happened.

Kikuchi did offer to go to the minors, but that would likely require a DFA + clearing waivers + an outright assignment. No one is going to claim his $24M+ guaranteed contract, so maybe that's the best option at this point.
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Petey Baseball - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:17 PM EDT (#422413) #
I would demote Kikuchi just for his mental health at this point....in all seriousness.
It would be tough knowing you are repeatedly costing the team games while trying to work things out.
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Magpie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#422414) #
No one is going to claim his $24M+ guaranteed contract

It was front-loaded - there's $20 million left.
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Nigel - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#422415) #
This wasn’t a case of keeping Kikutchi around for blow outs and mop up duty. You could ahead at the last 40 games of the year and see that you were going to have to give 10-12 innings of medium leverage innings in bullpen games (in important games) to Kikutchi or his replacement. It’s been obvious for months that he’s unplayable - yet nothing. Just wasteful.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:21 PM EDT (#422416) #
Thanks to Apple having this game, I am watching Scorcese's Rolling Thunder Revue movie. Much better than watching Kikuchi struggle. It was indeed a simple twist of fate.
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Magpie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:24 PM EDT (#422417) #
Scorcese's Rolling Thunder Revue movie.?br>
The version of "Isis" about twenty minutes in - worth a year's subscription, all by itself!
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Magpie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#422418) #
I think I just heard Gunnar Henderson give the Apple broadcaster a "Yes, ma'am." Twice.

What a pleasant young man!
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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:43 PM EDT (#422419) #
I guess George doesn't need another cortisone shot. Good thing.
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Petey Baseball - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:44 PM EDT (#422420) #
What was that I was saying about Springer not having home run power with the bum elbow?

Granted, that was cookiest of all cookie pitches.


Good to see he still has second deck power. It was no wall scraper either.
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Magpie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#422421) #
Mayza coming in. Kikuchi in line for the W. Baseball is weird.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#422422) #
An early version of Coyote. I should have watched this movie ago. Actually I should have gone to the tour, but what I can say, I was in the last year of high school in the year captured by Dazed and Confused.

Matt Chapman picked a good day to get his mojo back.
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Petey Baseball - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#422423) #
Welcome back July Matt Chapman!

I think he likes hitting at Rogers Centre.
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Petey Baseball - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 09:13 PM EDT (#422424) #
Good to see a much bigger, louder crowd tonight.

Any Blue Jays fan that wants a finish second or third wildcard for better matchups is crazy. There is no downplaying how awesome that building is for important games.
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Magpie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#422425) #
It's hardly his only problem, but I've begun to suspect that Kikuchi doesn't get quite warmed up properly in the bullpen. He may think he's ready when he comes in, but I'm not so sure. Here's what happened with the first two hitters in each of his relief appearances.

W (4 pitch), single
W (4 pitch), W (4 pitch)
W (4 pitch), K
K (that was the end of the game)
K, single (the next guy hit a triple)
K, triple, (the next guy hit a 1b)
Pop 3, double
triple, HR

15 batters, 6 hits, 4 walks. That's bad for Kikuchi, never mind a decent pitcher.
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John Northey - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#422426) #
Yeah, I was thinking this too - wonder if that is why he was warming in the 2nd but didn't come out until the 4th. Safe to say the Jays know this too and are trying to figure out how to get him warm enough to be useful right away. After those first 2 batters tonight 6 outs, 4 K's, 0 H, 0 BB.
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Mike Green - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#422427) #
Solid win. It's good to have the bullpen games out of the way, but I imagine they might use an opener for White again.
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hypobole - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#422428) #
No one thinks the 2nd WC is a better matchup. The point someone made was the 3rd may be better than the 2nd.

Ideally we win the division. But reality says the Yankees 6 game lead makes that a remote possibility.

Winning the 1st WC is next best, but again remote. The worst team we have left are the 70-74 Red Sox. The best team the Mariners have left are the 62-81 Rangers.
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scottt - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 10:05 PM EDT (#422429) #
Finishing second is bad. Second WC plays first WC on the road.
Third WC plays the Central on the road. That's probably better than playing Tampa or Seattle on the road.

Finishing first is obviously the best but Yankees and Mariners have much easier schedules.

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dalimon5 - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 10:13 PM EDT (#422430) #
Help me out. Who was the former baseball player in the Apple TV post game segment? He looked so darn familiar but I can’t remember who he is.
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92-93 - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#422431) #
Because I'm not an Orioles fan like a few posters here and I find it easy to root for the Blue Jays I have no fear of their upcoming schedule and am actually relieved they aren't playing teams with nothing to lose like the Mariners have on their schedule. The Jays are a better ball club than TB, BAL, PHI, and BOS and if they play like they are capable of they won't have any issue having home-field advantage for the Wild Card, which simply HAS to be the goal. Every season ticket holder that actually invests money in this team would agree. If they happen to finish 5th or 6th after putting their best foot forward that's also fine.

With the off day on Monday they don't need White (or a bullpen day) until next Saturday.
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jjdynomite - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#422432) #
Anthony Recker, journeyman extraordinaire. He backed up d'Arnaud on the Mets.
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Magpie - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 10:45 PM EDT (#422433) #
I certainly wouldn't look forward to playing Cleveland, who've taken 5 of 7 from the Jays this season and have three starters - McKenzie, Bieber, Quantrill - who shut them down quite comprehensively.

They're all going to be tough to beat. And that's fine. They're supposed to be tough to beat. Home field will help. Good to see Tampa Bay lose. Good to see the Angels are kicking Robbie Ray around.
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greenfrog - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 11:02 PM EDT (#422434) #
Because I'm not an Orioles fan like a few posters here and I find it easy to root for the Blue Jays

Yes. You are a superior being.
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John Northey - Friday, September 16 2022 @ 11:52 PM EDT (#422435) #
Ideal is win East, #2 is top wild card, #3 is 2nd wild card with Seattle top WC (many Canadian fans come down from Vancouver all the time making it a near home game), #4 is 3rd WC vs Minnesota (see Seattle) or Cleveland or ChiSox. #5 is 2nd WC vs Tampa in Tampa (and a likely 2 games and out ala 2020).

That is how I see it. Right now Cleveland has a death grip on the AL Central (4 games up on ChiSox, 5 on Twins) with a magic number of 15. Angels beating the Mariners right now by 1. If the Angels lose they are officially out of the playoffs. Texas has a tragic # of 2, Boston 9, Baltimore 15 after losing to the Jays tonight. With 1 1/2 games from the Jays to Rays for the 3 wild cards it is a fun chase. Under last years rules it would've been even wilder as only 2 teams would make it to the 1 game WC.

Boy this is so much more fun than 2019 when we were just enjoying seeing if Vlad/Bo/Biggio were for real.
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92-93 - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 12:40 AM EDT (#422436) #
The Yankees blew a 5-0 lead tonight and got walked off in Milwaukee. Their closer Clay Holmes was hanging sliders all inning. CY Burnes on the bump for the Brewers tomorrow. The sweep + division fantasy is still alive and well.
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ISLAND BOY - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 06:38 AM EDT (#422438) #
" Who was the former baseball player on the Apple TV post game segment?"

I didn't watch it but Apple TV's former player analysts are Carlos Pena, Cliff Floyd and Yonder Alonso. Maybe it was Floyd because I've seen him talking baseball on other shows.

Great results last night with the Yankees, Rays, Mariners and Orioles all losing. It would be nice to have a good lead when we visit the Death Valley that is Tropicana Field.
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Glevin - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 07:39 AM EDT (#422439) #
Very hard to see Jays getting top wildcard spot as Seattle plays no teams that aren't really bad. You have to go out and play but once Jays clinch and the Yankees are out of reach, I'd be fine resting a lot of guys, skipping starts to get rest, etc... It's not that I want the Jays to tank just that the rest is way more important than positioning.
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99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 08:09 AM EDT (#422440) #
At least for today, several advantageous pitching match-ups from a Toronto perspective.

Ohtani vs Kirby in Angels v Mariners
Woodruff vs Taillon in Brewers v Yankees
Gray vs Armstrong in Rangers v TB

Let’s hope this adds up to more losses tonight for our rivals!
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dalimon5 - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 08:35 AM EDT (#422441) #
Robbie Ray did not have a great start yesterday. I remember last year he lost some of the attack on his fastball. That could affect the Mariners this playoff run.
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dalimon5 - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 08:37 AM EDT (#422442) #
Fascinating discussion on the Bob McCowan podcast from yesterday with Dave Hodge. They basically were blasting Vlad while acknowledging he’s still the best on the team. Some very interesting points they brought up about Vlad.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 09:06 AM EDT (#422443) #
Best AND youngest.
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bpoz - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#422444) #
Playoffs are going to be tough for the Jays every year IMO.

Seattle has a deep rotation Ray, Gilbert, Castillo, Kirby, Gonzales and Flexen. Hancock is close.

TB is always good.

Cleveland has Bieber, MacKenzie, Quantrill and Plesac.

NYY & Boston will always spend to compete. Tough for them to get in and win also.

Baltimore will get a lot better next year or most likely the year after as all those very high draft picks graduate. Their GM has also said that they will spend on FAs this off seasons.
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dalimon5 - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 09:28 AM EDT (#422447) #
He may be the best but none of them would want him in a key spot in an important game. They said that from 6th inning forward Vlad has ZERO runs to tie or take a lead in the game this year.
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hypobole - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 09:45 AM EDT (#422448) #
I remember Vlad grounding a ball between 3rd and short to win a game a few months back.
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99BlueJaysWay - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 09:52 AM EDT (#422449) #
Zero hits that tied the game or put the Jays in the lead.

Dalimon I had a very different experience listening to that podcast. I thought it was one of the worst ones from that group so far.

Hodge also said he would wait to see the condition of the bullpen before deciding if he could afford to start Stripling, because if Stripling can only give you six, he said he needs to know they have at least a rested Garcia, Romano and Mayza ready before he’s comfortable starting him. If all those guys aren’t fully rested he would start Berrios who has a better chance of giving 7 innings.

John Shannon thought the Jays’ record with Berrios on the mound was a more important stat than any stats about Berrios’s individual performance.

And McCown ended the show saying he wants the Jays to make Romano a starter. “Tell him to spend the off-season learning a new pitch and stretching out”
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hypobole - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#422450) #
Here's the game with Vlad's winning hit in the 9th.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/recap?gameId=401355343
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Paul D - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#422451) #
Do people think Vlad is unclutch, pressing, etc, or that he's just had back luck? I lean towards luck, similarly to the start of the year when the Jays couldn't hit with RISP
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electric carrot - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#422452) #
I certainly wouldn't look forward to playing Cleveland

I agree with Magpie. Cleveland looks very sneaky good to me. I see them as having good potential to advance and surprise people in the playoffs.
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Nigel - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 10:59 AM EDT (#422456) #
I live in Vancouver now after having spent the first 18 years of my life in Toronto. I think Toronto sports fans are inordinately wired to criticizing it’s sports franchise’s best players. I know it happens to some degree everywhere, but Toronto seems to really dig in to these kind of debates (Vladdy and Bo aren’t clutch, Matthews and Marner aren’t clutch, etc). Vancouver sports fans have their own peculiarities (largely stemming from years of having to watch some of the worst professional sports teams on the planet) and their own “whipping boys” but they don’t focus their ire in the best players to the same degree. I find it odd.
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#422458) #
The recap of the games with Baltimore this season actually mentions Guerrero having a walkoff hit against them.
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hypobole - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 12:31 PM EDT (#422461) #
https://www.espn.com/mlb/game/_/gameId/401355171

Here's the O's game Magpie mentions. So now were at 2. That's some great research for that podcast.
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hypobole - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 12:33 PM EDT (#422462) #
The recap does not say hit though.
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#422463) #
The Jays have five walkoff wins thus season, and here's how they pushed the winning run across:

Apr 26 Tapia sac fly (after Guerrero IW)
Jun 15 Guerrero RBI single
Jun 28 Guerrero RBI single
Jul 16 Hernandez RBI single (after Guerrero RBI double)
Aug 29 Jansen RBI single
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uglyone - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#422464) #
huh look at that.
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bpoz - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#422467) #
Very proud of you guys for being polite and diligent in your defense of Vlad. Manoah would be proud of you looking after your teammates.
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#422468) #
Do people think Vlad is unclutch, pressing, etc, or that he's just had back luck? I lean towards luck

Well, I lean to it being one of those narratives that develops in the teeth of the facts, the way they sometimes do. Here are your 2022 Blue Jays when the game is Late and Close

Split        PA   AB   R   H 2B 3B HR RBI  BB  SO  BAVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
                                                        
Jansen       35   30   4  13  0  0  2  10   3   4  .433  .457  .633   1.090
Guerreo      86   71  11  23  3  0  2   6  15  12  .324  .442  .451    .893
Gurriel      76   71   5  25  8  0  0   8   4  19  .352  .395  .465    .860
Biggio       33   27   6   6  4  0  1   7   4   9  .222  .313  .482    .794
Kirk         81   69   9  19  1  0  3   8  11  10  .275  .370  .420    .791
Espinal      82   72   9  20  5  0  2  10   9  12  .278  .358  .431    .789
Bichette     94   91  17  22  2  1  6  17   3  27  .242  .266  .484    .750
Hernandez    64   56   9  11  1  0  4   9   7  24  .196  .297  .429    .726
Tapia        62   56   8  17  3  0  0   9   2  13  .304  .322  .357    .679
Chapman      87   80  15  16  3  0  2   8   7  24  .200  .264  .313    .577
Springer     83   71   7  14  1  0  2  13   6  12  .197  .272  .296    .567

I'm sure there are those who want that  veteran clutchiness of Chapman and Springer instead.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 01:03 PM EDT (#422469) #
Dark Magpie >>>
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Nigel - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#422470) #
When you’re looking up at Tapia on a list of offensive success you should feel shame:)

It does reinforce something I’ve been feeling for a few weeks now - Danny Jansen is having one hell of a season and might be the team’s MVP this year (during the time he’s been available) and no one’s really noticed.
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bpoz - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#422471) #
Magpie is playoff ready. He will be a force. If Halladay can throw a playoff no hitter then Vlad can do something great. Awesome bb/k Vlad and Kirk. Tapia?? I don't know.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 01:14 PM EDT (#422472) #
(Danny should be playing more)
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pooks137 - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 01:34 PM EDT (#422474) #
And McCown ended the show saying he wants the Jays to make Romano a starter. “Tell him to spend the off-season learning a new pitch and stretching out”

I had to stop watching Bob McCown's revived YouTube podcast last year because of horrible, uninformed takes.

When MLB eliminated the August waiver trade period after the July non-waiver trade deadline, McCown resolutely stated that before the change, teams could still trade within their league in August but could only trade with the opposed league prior to August 1st.

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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#422475) #
I don't think anyone would dream - certainly not me - of saying Springer is lousy in the clutch. He's a World Series MVP! He carries that narrative with him forever now, and he's indeed had some huge, game-breaking hits in his time here.

it's Just One of Those Things!
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#422476) #
Tell him to spend the off-season learning a new pitch and stretching out

He probably thinks it's that easy. Guys spend their whole careers trying to master a third pitch, without success.
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:00 PM EDT (#422478) #
Guerrero Jr. has posted a pretty good slash line in high leverage situations over his career, but has grounded into an ungodly number of double plays.  With first base unoccupied, he is regularly issued an IBB in high leverage situations, but clubs will pitch to him seriously with a runner on first. 

This year, Guerrero Jr. has actually been a little better at avoiding the GIDP in high leverage situations.  He's slashing .317/.457/.463 with 4 GIDPs in 105 PAs.

This year and in his career, he's been very good in low leverage situations and not as good in medium leverage situations. 

He's a very good hitter, but there are weaknesses he needs to shore up.  A lot like Jim Rice.  He has the tools to be quite a bit better than Rice, but we'll see. 
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#422479) #
Here are your 2022 Blue Jays when the game is Late and Close

Random observations on sample sizes that are probably too small to mean much of anything...

Pitchers are obviously relaxing when they get done with the top hitters and Jansen steps up. The fools!

They're pitching around Guerrero, especially with men on base. Can't blame them.

Hernandez and Bichette both look like they're selling out a bit for the big hit. This works okay for Bichette, who hits like that all the time anyway until he gets two strikes. It doesn't work at all for Teoscar.

Tapia seems to actually cut down his swing and settle for singles. It's a pretty empty .304, but still - it's .304.

Springer mostly looks to be having bad luck on his Balls In Play.
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#422480) #
A lot like Jim Rice.

I think I've noticed that before - the main difference is that Guerrero has much better plate discipline. They were both vulnerable to the GIDP being RH batters who hit the ball very hard and didn't run like the wind.

Rice was batting behind Wade Boggs and Dwight Evans. Almost every time he came to the plate - certainly in the first inning - there was a runner on first and less than two outs. I don't know what the Red Sox could have done about that.
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#422481) #
I randomly looked at Matt Chapman's Fangraphs page and noticed the 2017 Prospect Report for him.  Under speed, they have 40/40.  I am pretty sure that he wasn't slower then, and it's obvious that he's got somewhat above average speed both from Statcast and by simple observation.  He was a 55/55. 

So, then I checked Adley Rutschman.  He's listed as a 40/30.  He's currently a 50.  Same with Danny Jansen- listed as 30/30 and in fact a 55/50.  I know when Rutschman and Jansen are in their early 30s after years and years of catching, they might be 30s, but that's not material for prospecting. 

They are so far off that I feel that I could do as well just by reading scouting reports and looking at video off youtube.  Which gives me no confidence at all about the things which I cannot see.  I have harped on this before, but I find it particularly annoying.  If you don't have the data, just say "no data". 
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#422482) #
Yeah, Vladdy does have the ability to control the strike zone better but his 51/102 W/K this year would have fit into Rice's career. 

You could bat someone like Guerrero Jr. fifth.  If there are 2 runners on, you've got 2 outs and the DP is not a factor.  If you get one runner on, he leads off.  And if you've got 3 runners on, the DP is a factor but the walk is an excellent weapon.  You'd hope that he learns to get the ball off the ground more, but as it is, you either live with it or adjust.  Personally, I think that I would just leave him where he is. 
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dalimon5 - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#422483) #
Well well, Beauxites have delivered with the goods. Vladdy is not a zero in the clutch and Dave should check his facts. That being said, I still think the criticism of Vlad is fair. He is supposed to do better.

I think the issue people have with Vlad is they want him to be at the top of the elite list of players and this year he’s at the bottom of that tier. That’s the issue. My issues is I don’t think it’s fair he gets treated like a top elite player when he’s barely cutting it in that class. If the Jays can sign him long term in the twenties then that would be great, but if his annual salary starts with a 3 then I’ll be disappointed.

One thing Jeff Passan mentioned recently was that Vlad is grounding into way too many outs and it reminds him a lot of Yellich who found a way to stay out of groundouts until the league adjusted and now he’s nowhere near the player he was. Passan also thinks the Jays missed the window to resign him anyhow since he only has 3 years left.
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92-93 - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#422484) #
Oh I've certainly noticed, Nigel, just like I've noticed the team's poor record when Moreno catches (4-12). That's why I mentioned in the other thread that it would be a huge mistake to force a trade of a catcher because of perceived depth at the position. If a team comes along and wants to pry one of them away with a good offer that's fine, but to actively try to trade one of them will lead to the Jays not receiving proper value. Jansen, Kirk, and Moreno have each had their injuries and there will be plenty of room for all 3 of them in 2023. If the team wants to force a trade they should move one of the corner OFs instead so they can balance the lineup with a lefty.
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:29 PM EDT (#422485) #
I agree with 92-93! (My addendum is, if you must trade a catcher, Anyone but Jansen!)

Update on Bichette - his quiet 1-4 last night dropped his September OPS a whopping 59 points, to 1.441 - his lead over Otto the Swatto for Best Month Ever is now just 44 points of OPS. Bo has already had more ABs this month than Velez did back in April 1977.
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Shoeless Joe - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#422486) #
I don't think carrying Jansen, Moreno and Kirk is a good use of assets for a contending team.

I would trade Moreno for Pablo Lopez & Jesus Luzardo for example.

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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:43 PM EDT (#422488) #
I would trade Moreno for Pablo Lopez & Jesus Luzardo for example.

And so would I. But would Kim Ng?

I don't think a trading strategy should ever begin with what you want to, or are willing to, give up. Ever. I think you always begin by identifying a target, a player you want.

Then you find out what the other team wants in return.

Then you dicker.

Then you decide if the price is worth it.
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:47 PM EDT (#422489) #
Oh bloody hell. I left my croissants in the oven for fifteen minutes instead of the proper five. I blame you guys! All of you! You distracted me!
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uglyone - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:53 PM EDT (#422491) #
Dark Croissants for Dark Magpie
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#422492) #
[Guerrero's] 51/102 W/K this year would have fit into Rice's career.

It would have indeed fit like a glove, and it also fits much better with Guerrero's first two seasons. (In that respect, 2021 is the outlier.) That acknowledged, we do have to recognize that 102 Ks in 2022 is very different from 102 Ks in 1983. When Rice struck out that often in 1983, he had the 12th most Ks in the league. Guerrero with the same number this season is 55th.
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Petey Baseball - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#422493) #
Vladdy was just so patient at the plate last year and his ability to lay off borderline pitches was incredible. This year, he's shown flashes of that but won't breakout until he gets back to being more selective.
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 02:55 PM EDT (#422494) #
Dark Croissants for Dark Magpie

Dark, and a little crunchy. The ham and cheese is fine, but the mustard is painfully, skin-scorching hot.
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hypobole - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#422495) #
I think Vlad needs a personal hitting coach. Someone who can actually teach him to put the ball in the air.

Fangraphs has 139 qualified batters. The lowest launch angles this season are Yelich 3.1 and LeMahieu 3.3. Tied for 3rd lowest at 4.5 are Brendan Rogers and Vlad. Such a waste of a guy with 80 raw.
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 04:02 PM EDT (#422497) #
Buck is wrong about this.  Mullins hit a ground ball into the shift against the changeup.  Yes, it went through, but that's an outcome you want.  Vavra's line-drive to LCF was entirely different. 
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#422498) #
If Kirk isn't ready tomorrow, not only do they have the off-day on Monday but Stripling is up for Tuesday and that's your big opportunity if you'd like to get Moreno a game, Stripling's the one pitcher who's done well with Moreno. The team in 3-2 with Stripling-Moreno, and Stripling has an ERA of 2.84 on those five games.
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#422499) #
Very crisp defense this afternoon.
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#422500) #
Moreno had a start this week.  I don't think that he's going to get enough work to be really ready either way.  I'd use him as a bat, not as a third catcher. 
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#422501) #
Raimel Tapia.  You can't stop him, you can only limit the damage.
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Kasi - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#422502) #
Can you feel the scorn? Need more scorn!
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scottt - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#422503) #
Another big Tapia hit.
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 05:07 PM EDT (#422504) #
Oh, I think the scorn is assumed at this point!
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#422505) #
On the 7th day, the scorn rests.
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scottt - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#422506) #
The modern Quality Start: 2 or fewer runs in 6+ innings.
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#422507) #
More crisp defense. And Berrios gets his ERA down to 4.99! Baby steps!
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#422509) #
Henderson looks like a shortstop to me. 
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#422510) #
The modern Quality Start: 2 or fewer runs in 6+ innings.

Well, that would mean the Jays have only gotten 52 Quality Starts out of their rotation instead of 63 by the old standard. Not a huge deal.

Because it's theoretically possible to get a Quality Start allowing 3 ER in 6 IP, there sometimes seems to be an assumption - especially from certain old-school media types - that a Quality Start just means an ERA of 4.50. It's seldom half that much, and just one of the Jays' 63 Quality Starts actually was 6 IP, 3 ER.

The ERA for the starters in their Quality Starts are Manoah 1.80 (21), Berrios 2.29 (15), Gausman 1.37 (14), Stripling 2.36 (8), Kikuchi 1.82 (4), and Ryu 0.00 (1).
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 05:39 PM EDT (#422511) #
Henderson looks like a shortstop to me.

Me too, but he may fit better for them at 2b, for the moment. He's a bigger upgrade on Odor than he is on Mateo or Urias. Good problem to have.
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Mike Green - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#422512) #
I'm thinking next year.  I really like his swing and actually everything about him, and it wouldn't surprise me at all if he's the 2023 MVP.  Hoping not, of course. 
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#422513) #
Yimi Garcia, too - 1-1, 13.50 against the Orioles

And after giving up a run in his inning on Friday, and another run in his inning today, he's cut that down to 11.81, and it's still 1.61 against the rest of the league.
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Paul D - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#422514) #
I don't think pitcher's ERA in the 16 games Moreno has caught tell us anything (although I understand why people wouldn't want to risk that during the stretch drive)
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uglyone - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 06:10 PM EDT (#422515) #
The most discouraging thing about this season was seeing us struggling to beat or stay ahead of the fricken orioles.

Going 5-1 against them in crunch time to get some real separation, and just as importantly completely outclassing them while doing it, has really changed the look of the entire season.


Also helps that we're in striking distance of the Yanks who seemed uncatchable just a month ago.
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#422516) #
I don't think pitcher's ERA in the 16 games Moreno has caught tell us anything

Nothing we didn't know already - that he's a 22 year old with less than 200 pro games behind the plate, coming up in mid-season to a new pitching staff and a league full of hitters he doesn't know much about.
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Shoeless Joe - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#422517) #
The Jays are a good balanced team peaking at the right time.

The playoffs should be very entertaining and I have several Yankees fans friends I want to ride in the playoffs.
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grjas - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 06:54 PM EDT (#422518) #
I’m surprised the Jays gave up on Bryan Baker so easily. He throws as hard as Merryweather, and is younger, healthier, and had better numbers in the minors. He had control issues a couple of years ago, but they’ve improved. It’s not like we’re overflowing with Big SO pitchers in Triple A.

His numbers this year in the majors are fairly pedestrian but he’s a big guy with a live arm.
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pooks137 - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#422519) #
Losing guys like Baker to waivers is a consequence of choosing to protect as many longshot Rule 5 prospects as possible.

Baker was added to 40-man Sept 1st, 2021 but was later waived after the World Series in November when 60 day IL guys need to be readded to the 40-man and new prospects need to be added soon before rosters freeze before the Winter Meetings.

The 40-man roster is a hard 40 over the offseason with no exemptions for injuries. There's consequences on the margins for carrying non-contributing prospects like Hagen Danner and historically Elvis Luciano.

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Mike Green - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#422520) #
The Jays reached 20 games over. 500 for the first time this season. That's a start.
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Petey Baseball - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 07:35 PM EDT (#422521) #
Let's hope for an annoyed Michael Kay call on YES, tonight. Go Brewers.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 08:18 PM EDT (#422522) #
Willy Adames just hit a three run HR. That should annoy him.
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John Northey - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 08:35 PM EDT (#422523) #
Would Baker even be on the ML roster if he was still here? Who would you dump (outside of Kikuchi) for him? Trevor Richards (the team wouldn't but I would) and Julian Merryweather are the only real candidates imo. Richards - 71 ERA+, 5.0 BB/9 vs 11.5 K/9 1.4 HR/9, Merryweather 76 ERA+, 1.7 BB/9 7.6 K/9 1.0 HR/9 - his ERA is a lot worse than the other numbers suggest (FIP 3.72). Baker before today (1 IP 0 R) 100 ERA+ 3.6 BB/9 9.9 K/9 0.5 HR/9. He would've been a lot better than Richards imo and probably better than Merryweather (I love how Merryweather isn't walking guys though). However, odds are he wouldn't have been there opening day. He'd have been on the shuttle between AAA/ML (he has options left). He was an odd dump last winter, but I'm wondering if there were other issues (see his yelling at the Jays bench after an inning ended). The Jays value team unity a LOT and I'm wondering if he is a hothead who didn't fit in at all and end of bench relievers are a dime a dozen (Jays rarely start the season with a strong pen, but do seem to get there by the end).
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John Northey - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 08:37 PM EDT (#422524) #
Don't know if anyone noticed, but Rowdy Tellez now has 30 home runs on the year. His overall stats are nothing to write home about (225/312/463) but I'm happy to see him get to 30. Hopefully he has a long career as a slugging 1B for Milwaukee.
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Petey Baseball - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#422525) #
Magpie, he's really not that annoyed tonight....I guess he hasn't checked the standings recently.
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SK in NJ - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#422526) #
Nice to see the Jays finally starting to play up to their talent level. Took longer than anyone of us wanted, but figuring it out in mid-September heading into October might be just the right timing.
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Petey Baseball - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 09:59 PM EDT (#422527) #
Jays about to be 4.5 back of the Yankees.



We're all about to be Pirates fans.
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uglyone - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#422528) #
4.5gms back.

16gms left.
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92-93 - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#422529) #
With Gausman-Berrios-Manoah lined up for the Yankees series at the Dome.

Seattle's 3B Eugenio Suarez has a fractured finger and went on the IL. It's a big loss for them.
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John Northey - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 10:35 PM EDT (#422530) #
So Yankees 4 1/2 ahead, Rays & Seattle 1 1/2 behind, Baltimore now 7 games back. Safe to say at this point the Jays should be playing in the playoffs it is just a question of what slot they will get. No question the Yankees are catchable now. Before today the Jays division win odds were at 6.9% but that has to be climbing with the win and Yankee loss today. 99.8% odds of making the playoffs - basically it would take a major disaster to miss it now. Sadly I still remember 1987 so until it is locked in that fear exists.
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Leaside Cowboy - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#422532) #
“To be honest with you, I love those moments,” Tapia said. “I feed off the energy of the moment."
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pooks137 - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#422533) #
The Rays and the Mariners owe the Jays some props for more-or-less singlehandedly eliminating a red-hot previously second-best-in-baseball-behind-the-Dodgers Baltimore team out of Wild Card contention, giving the rest of the three a lot more breathing room down the stretch.
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Magpie - Saturday, September 17 2022 @ 11:41 PM EDT (#422534) #
“I feed off the energy of the moment."

Don't tell him.
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grjas - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#422535) #
I'm wondering if there were other issues

Yeah I wondered that too. I can understand Baker being annoyed at the club after last year’s results, but taking it out on the players was ridiculous. Even his own coach wasn’t supportive. But He certainly could have helped them earlier in the year.

One of The best things about this run is the focus and effort of the team; earlier in the year the players at times had seemed to be distracted or indifferent. But now the prize is in sight, and almost every at bat, pitch and defensive play seems laser focused.
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grjas - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 09:08 AM EDT (#422536) #
Stats for top 4 starters over the last month. Last column is number of games with ER of 5 or more. Not a clear numeric choice between Striping and Berrios in the last month. Berrios gives up more hits but fewer HRs. Meanwhile, Gausman has replaced Berrios as the erratic one with an HR challenge; is he tired?  Obviously a small sample size but reflective of recent value. The next couple of starts will be interesting.


Games IP/game ERA WHIP H/9 BB/9 SO/9 HR/9 Games ER5+ Gausman 7               5.8             5.11               1.3             10.7               1.1             10.9               1.8 3 Manoah 6               6.6             2.05               0.9               5.6               2.7               8.7               0.9 0 Stripling 6               6.0             2.49               0.7               4.9               1.1               7.8               1.1 0 Berrios 6               5.9             3.04               1.4               9.3               1.8               6.2               0.4 0
table {mso-displayed-decimal-separator:"\."; mso-displayed-thousand-separator:"\,";}tr {mso-height-source:auto;}col {mso-width-source:auto;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}td {padding-top:1px; padding-right:1px; padding-left:1px; mso-ignore:padding; color:black; font-size:12.0pt; font-weight:400; font-style:normal; text-decoration:none; font-family:Calibri, sans-serif; mso-font-charset:0; mso-number-format:General; text-align:general; vertical-align:bottom; border:none; mso-background-source:auto; mso-pattern:auto; mso-protection:locked visible; white-space:nowrap; mso-rotate:0;}.xl65 {font-weight:700;}.xl66 {mso-number-format:"_\(* \#\,\#\#0\.0_\)\;_\(* \\\(\#\,\#\#0\.0\\\)\;_\(* 022-022??_\)\;_\(\@_\)";}.xl67 {mso-number-format:"_\(* \#\,\#\#0\.00_\)\;_\(* \\\(\#\,\#\#0\.00\\\)\;_\(* 022-022??_\)\;_\(\@_\)"; text-align:center;}.xl68 {mso-number-format:"_\(* \#\,\#\#0\.0_\)\;_\(* \\\(\#\,\#\#0\.0\\\)\;_\(* 022-022??_\)\;_\(\@_\)"; text-align:center;}.xl69 {font-weight:700; text-align:center;} table {mso-displayed-decimal-separator:"\."; mso-displayed-thousand-separator:"\,";}tr {mso-height-source:auto;}col {mso-width-source:auto;}br {mso-data-placement:same-cell;}td {padding-top:1px; padding-right:1px; padding-left:1px; mso-ignore:padding; color:black; font-size:12.0pt; font-weight:400; font-style:normal; text-decoration:none; font-family:Calibri, sans-serif; mso-font-charset:0; mso-number-format:General; text-align:general; vertical-align:bottom; border:none; mso-background-source:auto; mso-pattern:auto; mso-protection:locked visible; white-space:nowrap; mso-rotate:0;}.xl64 {font-weight:700;}.xl65 {mso-number-format:"_\(* \#\,\#\#0\.0_\)\;_\(* \\\(\#\,\#\#0\.0\\\)\;_\(* 022-022??_\)\;_\(\@_\)";}.xl66 {mso-number-format:"_\(* \#\,\#\#0\.00_\)\;_\(* \\\(\#\,\#\#0\.00\\\)\;_\(* 022-022??_\)\;_\(\@_\)"; text-align:center;}.xl67 {mso-number-format:"_\(* \#\,\#\#0\.0_\)\;_\(* \\\(\#\,\#\#0\.0\\\)\;_\(* 022-022??_\)\;_\(\@_\)"; text-align:center;}.xl68 {font-weight:700; text-align:center;}
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grjas - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 09:24 AM EDT (#422537) #
No idea how to post excel charts here and it's not in FAQ for us occasional users. Anyway key info - Gausman has an ERA of 5.11 and HR/9 of 1.8 and 3 games out of 7 with ER of 5. None of the other 3 have one game of 5 ER. Berrios ERA is 3.04 vs stripling of 2.49. Berrios has hits per 9 of 9.3 but only HR of .4 per 9.  Gausman h/9 were 10.7. SSS but still indicative of recent trends.
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bpoz - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 09:54 AM EDT (#422538) #
We are doing very well this year. The team is well constructed basically. Injuries to key position players next year can be a problem. Biggio has room to contribute more. The OF is confusing to me because Teo has missed time, Gurriel is having a weak year, Springer is a part time OF, but Tapia has performed up to expectations. I don't know if this group is likely to be better next year, but the potential is there.

The rotation needs a good #4/5 for next year with Stripling likely lost to FA. At the moment White & Kikuchi are 2 competitors for #4/5. We need 2 more from outside the org. The pen is good and deep with the trade deadline additions so hopefully they can be strong and consistent for all of next year.
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scottt - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#422539) #
In 2021, Baker had an ERA around 1.5 in Buffalo and only threw one scoreless inning on Sept 5 against Oakland.

Meanwhile, the Jays were running guys like Chatwood, Castro (waiver pick), Jacob Barnes (acquired for Troy Miller), Jeremy Beasley (Acquired for cash), Brad Hand and Joakim Soria.

It's similar to Matt Gage, maybe he the next one lost this winter.

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 10:52 AM EDT (#422540) #
No idea how to post excel charts here and it's not in FAQ for us occasional users.

I find every browser works somewhat differently here, and whenever anything remotely different is involved, I switch from Chrome to Firefox. But in the particular case of Excel, I always use Notepad as a middle stop - whether I'm copying data into Excel or copying stuff out of Excel - just to get rid of all formatting codes that might have been present. In my case, I'm often going from BB-ref on the browser to Notepad to Excel, and I don't want to take all the Chrome formatting data with me.

I tried copying your data into Notepad, but it quickly became obvious that some of your numbers hadn't survived the trip. It looks like there was supposed to be a WHIP column and none of the numbers I saw looked like they could possibly be WHIP numbers.
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grjas - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#422541) #
Thx Magpie. I’ll try again when back home as I saved the file.
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bpoz - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 11:50 AM EDT (#422542) #
What can go wrong with a pitcher that has not proved that he can succeed at the ML level?

1) Injuries: Pearson & Merryweather are 2 of many examples.

2) Inconsistent results that causes a team to lose confidence in you: Matz is a very good example. A 2nd round pick that moved fast through the minors. His first 168 ML innings (2015/16) were great. Then he got injured (2017/18). A solid #3/4 after the recovery (2018/19). A horrible 2020 caused NYM to trade him to the Jays for 3 reasonably good pitching prospects. So neither team gave up something that they valued very highly. I was upset because I felt all 3 prospects had a shot, whereas Matz had 1 year of control. That 1 year was a solid #4. No QO and there was competition to sign him long term. His LT contract possibly hurts less than Ryu's.

3) Healthy but not developing as hoped: Zeuch, Murphy etc...

Zeuch, Murphy, SRF etc are all in play for NRI contracts. We did something like that with Shaun Anderson. He did not work out as most will not.
[ Reply to This ]
Paul D - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#422543) #
Suarez has more home runs since 2018 than anyone in baseball (Although with the DL stint he'll be passed by Judge)
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uglyone - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#422544) #
Yeah I said i was going to check out those SP recent splits a couple days ago....here's some simple ones from fangraphs...


Last 30 days

* Manoah: 5gs, 7.0ip/gs, 1.29era, 2.68fip, 3.88xfip, 8.3awar/32
* Stripling: 5gs, 6.1ip/s, 2.97era, 4.00fip, 3.66xfip, 4.2awar/32
* Berrios: 5gs, 6.0ip/gs, 3.30era, 3.61fip, 4.47xfip, 3.2awar/32
* Gausman: 6gs, 6.2ip/gs, 4.38era, 3.51fip, 2.66xfip, 2.9awar/32


last 6 starts

* Manoah: 6.8ip/gs, 1.99era, 3.57fip, 3.98xfip
* Stripling: 6.1ip/gs, 2.45era, 3.46fip, 3.43xfip
* Berrios: 6.1ip/gs, 2.95era, 3.19fip, 4.14xfip
* Gausman: 6.2ip/gs, 4.38era, 3.51fip, 2.66xfip


Yeah I probably wouldn't overthink anything going forward. We have a very good 4 man rotation and I would just stick with it as much as possible.
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Magpie - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 01:23 PM EDT (#422545) #
The last time Jansen caught Manoah - 7 IP, 1 H, 1 R, 10K, 1 W. Against Baltimore last October 2.
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Petey Baseball - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#422546) #
Wow. Cole gave up a three run jack to Kolten Wong in the first inning. Brewers played the Jays tough earlier this season, they are definitely doing them a huge favor this weekend.

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uglyone - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 02:50 PM EDT (#422547) #
nice at bat vlad. keep doing that if they aint gonna pitch to you.
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uglyone - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 03:12 PM EDT (#422548) #
heading into today, over the past 2yrs Danny had a 115wrc+ in 402pa, good for a 5.5war/650 pace.
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Mike Green - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#422549) #
Buck. That 89 mph cutter to Hernandez was straight and right down the middle. Hernandez just missed it and has not looked good. New father issue, I suspect.
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grjas - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 03:51 PM EDT (#422550) #
Thx UO for posting the starter data. I won’t repost then. Bit concerning that Gausman has given up 5 ER’s in 3 of his last 7 games. And an HR per 9 approaching 2. Fatigue, some inconsistency, the league catching up? Hard to tell.

Agree they should leave starters as is but will be interesting to see how his next couple of games go.
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pooks137 - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 03:59 PM EDT (#422551) #
Bullpen must be really gassed to put Richards in for a high leverage inning up 2-1 in the 7th.

I guess Thursday's 9th inning meltdown didn't remove Richards from Schneider's circle of trust.

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#422552) #
Bullpen must be really gassed

Not the bullpen as a whole, just the two top options - Mayza and Garcia - against LH batters.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#422553) #
Late and Close!
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#422554) #
Vladdy. Ball in the air is usually a good bet. Very nice to see.
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bpoz - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#422555) #
Romano does not have it.
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Mike Green - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#422556) #
Rutschman made a statement with his PA against Romano yesterday and continued today.  He's a smart hitter and you do not want to shift him.  It does not matter that he will normally pull the ball when not shifted. 
[ Reply to This ]
James W - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#422557) #
If you can't get Stowers and Urias out in a 1-run game, then this is the nonsense you'll see.
[ Reply to This ]
James W - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 04:45 PM EDT (#422558) #
# robot umps now.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#422559) #
Yep.  It's not that the strike zone has been terrible; it's just that the Blue Jays are going to be - again at home. 
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 04:54 PM EDT (#422560) #
If he can deliver here I am on board…
[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 04:56 PM EDT (#422561) #
3-2 here comes the moment of truth. Silence the critics…
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#422562) #
Beautiful, Vladdy.
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dalimon5 - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 04:57 PM EDT (#422563) #
Professional at bat from Vlad, most we can ask.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#422564) #
The 5th run really hurt.  Tough loss.
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lexomatic - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 05:11 PM EDT (#422565) #
The 5th run really hurt.  Tough loss.
So does trying to start a rally with 2 outs in the 9th. Better than nothing, but a lot harder. Espinal gets on maybe he scores as well tying it. Maybe somethign weird happens with Bichette with only 1 out.
Darn Judge with 2HR At least Angels are doing okay.
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#422566) #
And... everybody's tied in the Loss column.
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grjas - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#422567) #
Tough luck today. Hard hit ball leads to triple play, Espinal having to move to the bag on 9th inning double play ball, Romano saving his crap day for a one run game and Springer just missing. C'est la vie.
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85bluejay - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#422568) #
Didn't watch the game but from the box score this brings back memories of 1987 when the Jays were about to put away the Tigers and I think it was Kirk Gibson (memory?) that hit a ninth inning HR off Henke and the Tigers won in extras, helping to set up that terrible weekend in Detroit to end the season.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#422570) #
It was Kirk Gibson. A great hitter with the platoon advantage has the edge on a great pitcher.

Rutschman vs. Romano is no different, I'm afraid. They played cute with Mullins and that was a mistake.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 07:20 PM EDT (#422571) #
It's the Cimber homerun in the 8th that I didn't like.
That was a terrible pitch.
Should have stuck to the sliders outside and then tried high/low not the soft stuff inside.

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#422572) #
everybody's tied in the Loss column.

Until the Angels finished sweeping the Mariners. Honorary Blue Jay Luis Rengifo hit another two more HRs against Seattle.
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Mike Green - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#422573) #
Yes. The funny thing is that the location of Cimber's pitch to Aguilar in the 8th would have been good for one of Romano's heaters to him in the 9th.
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John Northey - Sunday, September 18 2022 @ 11:21 PM EDT (#422574) #
Just looking at overall leaders in the AL and Bo is now #2 in hits - 168 to Jose Abreu's 172, with Aaron Judge close behind at 166.  Speaking of Judge he has a real shot at the triple crown - he has HR and RBI sewn up with 59 (2nd Yordan Alvarez at 37) and 127 (2nd is Jose Ramirez at 112), and is 3rd in average at 316 (Luis Arraez is #1 at 317, with Xander Bogarts tied with Judge at 316).  Jays on the leader boards are Kirk #10 in average at 295, Bo #6 in RBI with 89 (tied with Ohtani), Vlad is #8 in HR with 29, Bo is #2 in doubles with 41 (#1 has 42), for runs scored Bo is #6 with 84, Vlad #7 with 83, for AB Bo is #1 with 594 (tied with Marcus Semien), for OBP Kirk is #6 at 379, Slg Vlad at #10 with a 490.

For pitching Manoah is all over the place - #4 in ERA, #3 in wins, #3 in starts, #2 in IP, #1 in HBP, #10 in K's, #4 in WHIP, #5 in average against, #2 in quality starts (23, best is Framer Valdez with 26), #8 in pitches per plate appearance, #6 in pitches thrown, #3 in batters faced,
Gausman doing good too - #12 in ERA, #8 in wins, #6 in K's, #5 in K/9, #2 in BB/9, #1 in K/BB ratio.  He has allowed 17 SB (3rd most) vs 4 CS
Berrios is #10 in quality starts with 16 - either very good or very bad is his rule.  Note: SB-CS for him are 4-5 with 2 pick offs.
Romano is #2 in saves (2 behind Emmanuel Clase Cleveland - both have 39 opportunties, Romano just blew 2 more of them than Clase did).
Garcia is #10 in holds with 20

Kind of fun looking at leaderboards. 
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bpoz - Monday, September 19 2022 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#422575) #
The AL Central has an interesting finish to the season. Twins, Guardians & ChiSox play each other a lot. I expect only the AL Central winner will make the playoffs. Currently they are 6th, 8th & 9th in the overall standings.

The AL East winner may not necessarily be the NYY. Baltimore seems to have the toughest schedule and will have to win a lot of tough games to make the playoffs. They probably have to win every series and maybe sweep 1. TB has a very tough schedule, but they seem to thrive. Seattle should not find a way to not make the playoffs.



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hypobole - Monday, September 19 2022 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#422579) #
Couple of items I found interesting.

First a quiz from Sunday notes:
"Mike Schmidt led the National League in home runs six times from 1974-1983. Two other players led the NL in home runs during that 10-year stretch, each doing so twice. Who were they?"

(Got one, missed the other)

Second, Gausman has caused a lot of shifting discussion lately. Which teams shift most?

http://www.statoftheweek.com/

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Nigel - Monday, September 19 2022 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#422580) #
I’m confident one of those players was George Foster. The other? Dale Murphy?
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hypobole - Monday, September 19 2022 @ 10:34 AM EDT (#422581) #
Yup, Foster's the one I got as well. As for the other, no.
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Nigel - Monday, September 19 2022 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#422583) #
Dang. I looked it up. I should have guessed the other but I never would have guessed the other. Which makes no sense but there you go.
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mathesond - Monday, September 19 2022 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#422584) #
Dave Kingman maybe? I seem to remember he spent time with the Cubs around then.
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ISLAND BOY - Monday, September 19 2022 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#422587) #
I saw a table on teams doing the shift. I think Toronto and Tampa were at the top.
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hypobole - Monday, September 19 2022 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#422588) #
Yeah, King Kong was the other, once with the Cubs and once with the Mets.

Dodgers are full infield shift leaders for the 4th year in a row with the Jays only slightly behind.

This I didn't know:

"The Blue Jays are the MLB leader in what we call “outfield shifts,” instances in which the Statcast data shows that the three outfielders are positioned at least 110 total combined feet from their average position.

The Blue Jays have used an outfield shift 412 times this season. The only other team to do so more than 100 times is the Marlins (110)."
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