"The Texas Rangers don't look too frightening."

I hope the Jays don't look past them to the upcoming games with the Rays and Orioles. Texas just lost 2 of 3 to Houston but all three games had one run margins. The worst part about the Jays is that they sometimes get completely stymied by pitchers with 5+ ERA's.

They're only 6 back, not 6.5, and 5 games in the loss column. It's great that the Rays get the Yankees this weekend before the 5 game series with the Jays kicks off next week. There's still hope for the division.

Berrios is the scheduled Sunday starter, but they ought to push him back to Monday so they can throw their best at the Rays. It's better to have the opener/Kikuchi game vs. the Rangers and then they can recall White for the Tuesday double-header.

Earlier this year it was reported that Guerrero isn't comfortable in the #2 spot. Perhaps it's time to flip him and Bichette again. Tonight's Rangers SP has noticeable splits, so it will be interesting to see if Schneider rolls with Biggio at 2B with Tapia and Bradley in the corners (assuming Gurriel can't play), or if he's willing to play Biggio in one of them and Espinal at 2B.

Earlier this year it was reported that Guerrero isn't comfortable in the #2 spot.

Could be true. This year:

Split           G    PA   AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO  BAVG   OBP   SLG   OPS
Batting 2nd    50   228  212  30  60  15   0   7  26    7   2  14  26  .283  .333  .453  .786
Batting 3rd    83   362  320  46  87  14   0  20  56    0   1  35  66  .272  .348  .503  .851

And in his career:

Split          G     PA   AB    R    H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS   BB   SO  BAVG   OBP   SLG   OPS    
Batting 2nd   116   516  470   70  127  28   0  18   60   8   3   41   72  .270  .333  .445  .778
Batting 3rd   254  1104  966  168  281  45   3  69  176   3   2  124  183  .291  .374  .558  .932

Yeah, but his numbers are even better hitting 5th or 6th.
Also, he's never hit leadoff, but his OPS is over 1 when he's the first hitter of an inning. 

Biggio is not in the starting lineup.  Tapia is in left, JBJ in right, Espinal at second and Kirk is the DH.  Biggio was born in Texas. /subtle scorn

Gurriel to the IL with a hamstring strain.

Otto Lopez recalled.

Which likely means more Tapia.  Great. 

It’s just so bizarre that Biggio has an .800 OPS over the last 3.5 months and he doesn’t play every day vs. RHP, often losing ABs to Tapia or Bradley. If they put him in LF every day for a few weeks he would quickly become an average+ defender.

I get when they need to cover for Springer but in LF? Really? Tapia vs Biggio on defense has to be a wash in LF, and with the bat it is a no comparison situation. Bizarre.

Bradley and Tapia both starting for some reason. Wonderful. I Can't believe Biggio is getting blocked by two players who have combined for - 0.4 WAR.

I think it’s pretty clear that Schneider isn’t a Biggio fan. Montoyo wasn’t using Biggio as much as he could have but there’s been a noticeable cut since the managerial change. I don’t get it. I would choose Biggio over Espinal at 2B versus a LH but I can understand choosing Espinal over Biggio due to Espinal’s defense. I can’t understand refusing to use Biggio in a corner OF spot in the circumstances.

He’s just not a fan of Biggio in the OF. Which having seen him play there that’s not a surprise. But there probably isn’t that much different between him and Tapia in LF. Bradley and Zimmer sure but Tapia is no plus defender.

Bradley for sure is a much better defender in RF and Tapia maybe a bit better in LF but defensive value is less and less important as you move down the defensive spectrum. Like, how often would Bradley make a play in RF that Biggio wouldn't? Once a week would be a lot. If they had 20 PA's, you'd expect Biggio to get on base 7 times and Bradley to get on 5 times. Forget about extra power too. You're giving up so many outs to improve D at the third least valuable defensive position in the game. Just doesn't seem like a good trade. And Tapia isn't really any better defensively than Biggio so you're just giving away outs for some reason. I don't get it.

Yeah, I’d never suggest using Biggio over JBJ over Zimmer in CF. But Biggio over any of Tapia, JBJ or Zimmer in a corner seems obvious. There’s a cavernous gulf in offence between Biggio and any of those three. I really believe it’s a stubborn insistence on trying to prove their original decision to trade for Tapia as being right. It’s a common managerial decision making failure (not just in baseball).

Glad Springer thought that was funny. Looked like a slow motion train wreck despite his calling it multiple times.

Yeah, that was scary. What Tapia was doing there, I have no idea. That was a heck of a play by Stripling.

What Tapia was doing there, I have no idea.

Chasing a line drive in the gap, and not hearing the centre fielder? I'm just guessing, but that's the usual explanation.

Oh, of course. It’s just that Springer appeared to be shouting “I got it” multiple times and there wasn’t any change of pace throughout the piece. You could see Springer say “I got it” when Tapiia was about 6 feet from him but no reaction. Maybe Springer was whispering?

Happens all the time. When the home team hits the ball into the gap, it often makes a great big noise and the fielders don't hear each other very well, especially when they're focused on something else, like chasing the ball.

The crowd makes a great big noise. For those two or three seconds that the ball is in the air.

I don’t agree. They almost always veer at the last moment or there isn’t a “call off”. There was nothing here.

Doesn't that tell you he didn't hear he was being called off?

Not sure what magic elixir Bichette drank this month, but he looks like a different guy at the plate.

Bichette is doing everything right.

Then Springer was whispering. All I’m saying is that that was not a normal “near miss”. You do plays like that but they all involve no one calling it.

Bo is firmly back into “star” territory. Good to see Vlad and Bo go back to back with very hard hit balls.

Bichette is doing everything right.

Leads the team in RBIs!

You cannot hit and run with Raimel Tapia.

“They found more power with him this year” - referring to Tapia. Uh, no.

You cannot hit and run with Raimel Tapia.

There are plenty of guys on the team who swing and miss more often, but no, he's not the best choice. Kirk and Espinal are really the only good choices.

3-0 count on Tapia. Runners at second and third. Scornful fans wait with bated breath.

They were afraid, clearly.

Does Biggio hit for Espinal if they're losing?

Yes, and he should’ve hit for Tapia with them winning too. Those runs would’ve been huge, and there’s little downside to making the move.

Poor choice by JBJ to throw to the plate.

It looked to me like Vladdy wasn't in a good position to cut that one off.  It needed to be.

Just replayed that. Vladdy wasn’t in the right spot plus JBJ air mailed it for a cut off. Choose your problem.

Yes, and he should’ve hit for Tapia with them winning too.

They walked Tapia on four pitches. You think they would have rather pitched to Biggio? They wanted Espinal.

Biggio has had his chances and hasn’t seized them. He also seems to get injured every year. Maybe they want him fresh as a super utility player, the way they have said all along.

Why would you remove Stripling at 68 pitches with 11 games in 10 days, a likely bullpen day on Sunday, and a doubleheader on Tuesday?

That was a terrible sequence for Schneider/JBJ.

I imagine that they are going to the pen because it's a 1 run game and Stripling didn't look quite as sharp in the 6th. 

Why would you remove Stripling at 68 pitches

Probably because the three hitters seeing him for the third time each hit the ball really hard. I'm just guessing.

That was a terrible sequence for Schneider/JBJ.

Yup. There's doubtless a place for the bunt, but not if the players can't bunt.

That last out wasn't hit hard, and he struck out Semien but for a bad call. Might as well just yank him at 50 pitches before he faces their 3 best hitters. This is how bullpens get tired so quickly.

"If you can hit, you can hit, and he can hit." Classic Tabby.

lookin good, Ramiel.

Hate seeing the bunt put batters in the hole every time. Better to just let Tapia try and steal the bag.

Props to Tapia.  No more scorn for today.

Jansen delivers. Good man.

I find Jungian strikeouts very therapeutic.

Woo!

Not the prettiest of games but good teams find ways to win.

Yankees lose, so the Jays are 4 games back in the loss column for the division and 2 back of Tampa for home field. New York is dealing with lots of injuries right now and have been rolling out some really poor lineups lately.

Romano has been fantastic. He hasn’t allowed a run in over a month.

5gms back of the Yanks with 25gms left.

Let's get ahead of ourselves. If the Jays sweep the Yankees they will take the season series, which means a tie goes to Toronto. With 9 games left against Tampa the Jays can win that season series too by going 6-3.

Glimmers of hope in the division race. The Jays still control their own destiny.

“ Like, how often would Bradley make a play in RF that Biggio wouldn't? Once a week would be a lot”

I counted two tonight! Granted it’s an an outlier and I think you’re right on aggregate, but Biggio has had a few bad plays out there in RF this year, for whatever reason. Plus that one game where he made a phenomenal catch but smashed his knee/leg.

I’m in agreement about the LF situation. Maybe after the leg smash Biggio said he’d prefer to stay in the infield? Total speculation.

Probably good speculation on that 99BlueJaysWay. I suspect the team wants Biggio to stay in the infield while the others go to the OF. It isn't like there is a shortage of guys for the OF, and Biggio can always pinch hit for one of them if needed in a pressure situation if he is on the bench. Tonight the super-depth of OF'ers was useful, but wasn't critical. I love having Zimmer out there in the 9th, same with JBJ if he hasn't already been hit for. Tapia... sigh.

If you'd like to see some bad outfield play, let me recommend the work of Aaron Hicks tonight in New York.

Wow Magpie - that was some creative fielding. This is fun to watch as a non-NYY fan. Back in the Billy Martin days Hicks would be lucky to leave the field under his own power after that play.

Nice to see NYY struggling. It seems that NYY have old, expensive and diminishing players.

Stripling has been crucial to the Jay position in the standings. He is having an fantastic season. He will be a FA at the end of this season and most likely leave the Jays.

We were lucky to replace Ray with Gausman who is having a great year but is not going to win the Cy Young. Kikuchi could not replace the good year of Matz.

My conclusion is that our SPs will not be as good. Berrios would need to step up next year. This is very possible. We will most likely need more than what Kikuchi and M White can provide next year.

Nice to see NYY struggling.

That is quite an understatement. Their batting lineup these days is Judge and 8 guys named Moe. If you have a pulse, you get to bat cleanup.

I really don't like defensive replacements and pinch runners in general except for a few key situations as I think even when it makes sense, the likelihood of it backfiring is as good as it is working out. With pinch running I think it's pretty straightforward. There are some situations where a run is important and the baserunner speed will make a huge difference. For example, Kirk on 3B in tie game with 1 out. However, pinch running for Kirk on 1B in the same situation is much trickier. Sure, it might make a difference but it's more likely it won't and then you're left without one of your best hitters in extra innings.

I think D replacements should be used even more sparingly. Let's take a gimme example. Jays up 1 and Zimmer replace Teoscar in the OF pushing Springer to RF. Sure, there is a chance there's a ball that is caught that wouldn't have been but there is a much bigger chance that the game gets tied up in another way and then you have replaced a top hitter with a minor league bat in the lineup. I'm not saying you shouldn't put in defensive replacements or pinch runners, just that I think they are something that should be used sparingly.

Update for those who didn't watch last night's game. The Rangers third baseman is now hotshot rookie Josh Jung. He's got some learning to do, but looks like a solid player to me.

With a RHP going today and a LHP tomorrow, I anticipate that Biggio will be at second base for Espinal today and Tapia will be in LF. It's not the right thing, but also not the worst.

Actually they’re getting in both 2bs with Biggio in right tonight. Tapia does play but that means Bradley is sitting.

Teoscar is not yet back from parental leave so Biggio in RF and Espinal at second. Scorn holiday for me at least until sundown.

Tonight's Texas starter, Kohei Arihara, is the second major leaguer from Hiroshima and a former teammate of Anthony Bass and Shohei Ohtani with the Nippon-Ham Fighters. It sure looks like he picked up a new pitch or something about three years ago, because he wasn't very impressive until then.

"Scorn holiday for me at least until sundown"

What did Gordon Lightfoot do now?

11th commandment.  Thou shall not desecrate the day of rest with scorn.

I don't think Gausman has hit his spot yet.  Maybe once or twice in 21 pitches.

Vlad just needs to stop swinging at so many balls. Let them walk you! Right now, he is swinging at almost everything.

Yep.  It's the pride thing at work.  He can be an even more powerful version of Eddie Murray if he adopted Eddie's attitude towards pitchers avoiding him- "you don't want to pitch to me, I'll take my walk". 

lookin' good, ramiel.

Big Time Shelling a 'lo Life Park.

Nice to see Bringer of Raime showing some September power.

Don’t look but Bo is about to pass Vlad in every hitting category.

Arihara had given up 11 runs and the manager still left him in to face another batter.

Not only that, but they bring in a lefty?

I must concede I like watching Tapia outrun double play balls and even make the odd nice grab with a big smile.

Stripling gets pulled on 68 pitches last night when pitching well, we burn 4 rp, now Gausman has a poor outing (of course we only keep pitchers in 100+ pitches when they're pitching badly) and now we're gonna burn four more RP heading into a bullpen day.

When Tabler was talking about how hot Bichette was and started, "there's only one player I witnessed..." I mouthed George Brett before he said it.  I'd guess that Yaz was this hot in 1967 but I didn't see him much on TV then. 

Don't shift and then pitch outside like yesterday.

Jays now 5 behind the Yankees and 5 1/2 ahead of the O's. Just 1/2 a game behind the Ray's, 1/2 a game ahead of Seattle. September is fun this year!

I would like to see Biggio as the everyday left-fielder while Gurriel is out, for a few reasons. Obviously, he's the best player on the bench and he should get available work. Also, Gurriel's injury may recur in the playoffs and Biggio needs some reps in left-field.

Thinking ahead to the playoffs, Biggio may be on the bench with Kirk DHing. In a close game semi-late (6th or 7th), Biggio for Kirk as a pinch-runner will make a lot of sense. You may be willing to sacrifice further Kirk PAs as Biggio isn't that far behind him as a hitter against RHP.

At this point, the Jays have 10 above average hitters on the club. Very good spot to be.

What this team needs for a WS run is Jose Bautista instead of young Vlad. No gas acquitted himself well.

Jays are +40 Defensive Runs Saved. The players are +4 DRS, in line with +4 OAA. The extra 36 DRS is from team shifting. Only the Dodgers +41 and Astros +38 are ahead of the Jays in that regard.

Mike I think that’s a really good point regarding Vlad. I was shocked to see his ratio after you pointed it out.

Vlad is clearly not the best player on the team this year and at this rate he might fall out of the top 5 position players. Bo, Springer, Kirk and Chapman are all clearly better. It’s possible he falls behind Teoscar and Espinal as well. I don’t think anyone can sell this anymore as anything other than a massive disappointment of a season.

<br>when I try to comment and submit it switches to html and loses my text

<br> apparently tly I can't copy and paste. There's relevant to vlad discussion k Ramirez in the Sunday fangraphs.
This forum software is godawful

With texas’ ace going today and bullpen a bit more stretched out rehab it was yesterday I think they just go with Richards and Kikuchi and deal with having a very low chance to win it unless Kikuchi has one of his good games. Maybe if they’re winning late (6th or onward) you reconsider but I think this is a classic punt game given Perez is pitching.

If you copy and paste, don't preview, just submit.

This forum software is godawful

No disrespect to the forum staff, as this must be the longest running active Blue Jays online community site.

But it still blows my mind that commenting on here requires the use of BB/HTML functions (with no explanation how any of it works) and there's still such a dedicated user base that put up with it and post so intricately.

At this point, the Jays have 10 above average hitters on the club. Very good spot to be.

Danny Jansen's conversion to league average hitter (in part time duty due to injuries) is an interesting development.

Pre-COVID, it didn't look like Jansen could hit well enough to keep a starter's job.

This was somewhat surprising, as Jansen post-vision correction as a prospect arrived in the majors with as a bat-first catcher with good contact skills but nominal power, a little bit like Kirk.

Now, after struggling to hit his weight the first few years, Jansen is finding success with a low BA, flashing power approach with decent walk rates and being still hard to strike out.

Jansen's almost succeeding with a Biggio-lite statistical profile, only with better contact skills but still middling BABIP results.

I think Jansen is too good a catcher to be a backup. I believe the Jays will trade him in the off-season to leverage what I believe is a lot of trade value. There should not be a shortage of suitors.

" It's possible he falls behind Teoscar and Espinal as well."

Whoa, I don't know about that. I agree that Vlad's season has been a disappointment but I wouldn't consider it massive because his stats will still add up to a pretty good season, especially considering how offense in general is down this year. What I find about Vlad being disappointing, besides swinging at more bad pitches than he usually does, is he's gone back to hitting a lot of ground balls and I don't know if it is a less lofted swing path or what.

The thing is, we expect more from Vlad. Even when he had a 22 game hitting streak this summer, not much was made of it. We saw him smash 3 home runs against Gerrit Cole and the Yankees early in the season and we thought," Yeah, Vlad gonna dominate this year!" Then we see him hit into more double plays than usual, strike out more than usual, and consider his season a bust. It's not, and he's still a darned good player and he's still going to be a big contributor over the last few weeks and into the playoffs.

Trivia question for today. A friend mentioned how Willie Mays would get very hot and so I did some checking of his splits, which led to this question.  Willie Mays played in 24 ballparks in his career.  In which ballpark did he have the highest batting average and in which park did he have the lowest batting average? 

If you copy and paste, don't preview, just submit.
I was doing that. It just switched to HTML and replaced all the text with the thread headline. It happens only on my phone. I'm on my phone 99% of the time.
I literally tried 5 times. I also tried preview after and nothing. It just periodically happens.

Yea he’s a fine player, but my issue is he gets treated like gold. If he’s struggling then move him down in the line up. They finally did this with Bo and he responded with better performance.

Vlad is still going to be given preference on batting order to appease him and he’s still going to demand 300 million plus for an extension. I just think too many people give him a pass until recently.

Be with us again, Jobu.

Vladdy has a W/K of 51/95.  Given how he is being pitched and his understanding of the strike zone, he should have an even W/K.  He's trying to do too much all on his own and there's absolutely no need for it.  If he needs to take pride in something, let it be for his defence which he has worked on and which has improved a lot over the last 2  and 1/2 years. 
What I was trying to post earlier, seeing as nobody took it up. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-rangers-infielder-brad-miller-embraces-man-city/
My thought is this is exactly what Vlad needs to learn. I believe he's trying sooo hard he makes bad decisions and is performing worse than he could/should (I also think blown calls, frustration, teammate ineffectiveness and injury are major factors). If he figures it out, that will be part of him growing up. If not he's still a good player.

I asked the Guardians hitting coach if his approach to working with Jose Ramirez was to stay out of his way and simply let him square up baseballs.

“There are a few things,” responded Valaika. “Everybody goes through certain parts of the season where they might get a little a little out of whack. But he’s so professional. He knows what he needs to do, and he knows what he’s feeling. If there’s a 1% chance that a pitcher is going to throw a changeup, or a slider, he’s going to be the guy to get it. So really, it’s more about keeping him focused on his approach and not feeling like he has to do it all himself, that he has to put the team on his back. He’s just as valuable when he’s taking the walk or moving runners.”

I’m surprised Moreno is still on the team instead of Lopez.

I continue to find the decision making around rest/DH days perplexing. Knowing a LHP was starting today, wouldn’t you give Springer his DH day yesterday? Today would have been the day to have both Jansen and Kirk in the lineup. Weird.

I’m surprised Moreno is still on the team instead of Lopez.

They apparently put more value in the security blanket of a 3rd catcher.

They are DHing Kirk a lot. Kirk also frequently needs a pinch runner late in games.

Who is the Jays' current emergency catcher?

Santiago Espinal?

Home plate umpire started Perez in in fantasy league today?!? That inside strike call to Merrifield was like something out of Naked Gun..

I guess Richards is back to being crappy again. He had a good run in the middle of the season after a slow start. Will Pearson show enough over the next little while to be a viable replacement?

Richards, Kikuchi, Rob Drake. Thankful for the NFL opening weekend providing an alternative today.

Hodgie, not if you're a Detroit Lions fan like me.

Drake heard that the bases were being expanded by 1.5" on each side and felt that it was unfairly limiting to home plate to be excluded from the expansion.  He may have gone overboard.

So re Tabby comments on Kikuchi pitching better out of the bullpen.
Do we know L/R splits when Kikuchi pitches in the pen and % of RH he faces in each?i didn't think he had any equivalent to the good starts he's had from the pen.

We’re really getting hosed on strike 3 calls. Every single 3 3 looking has been a ball. Most not very close,IMO

Looking at the monthly splits, Kikuchi has been unplayable outside of May.
As a starter this year 82.1 IP 5.25 ERA  244/357/492 368 wOBA 5.95 fip 448 xFIP 49/91 BB/K
As a reliever 8 IP 6.75 ERA 294/415/588 .427 wOBA  4.99FIP 2.85xFIP but 6/16 BB/K in those 8IP so he's gotta be doing better.

This is a perfect example of someone talking out of their ass. Yeah FIP xFIP but that is not an equal sample.

Curious decision to pull Kikuchi. How is the pen going to be able to handle the rest of today, followed by tomorrow and the doubleheader (one game with White starting) on Tuesday?  I guess they're going to lean on Berrios. 

That they haven’t optioned Kikutchi prior to this is just monumental stubbornness. He’s unplayable. There are useful arms in Buffalo.

The bullpen is fine. Pop should start the 5th, and Merryweather, Garcia, Bass, and Romano are all fresh to finish the game. They can always swap out Pop (and Kikuchi) for a new arm if you're that concerned about tomorrow's game.

Who is useful in Buffalo though...? Hatch has a 4.88 ERA, 5.5 IP per start, Lawrence has done great in AAA (2.72 ERA) but not here (8.04 ERA, nearly 3 HR per 9 IP). Bowden Francis has a 6.72 ERA Nick Allgeyer a 5.77. Shaun Anderson has done well (3.04 ERA) but has a 73 lifetime ERA+ in the majors (135 IP). Pearson is close - in AAA now 1 IP on the 8th, faced 3 batters K'ing one, 1 ground ball, 1 flyout, 9 pitches, 6 strikes. He is the best hope for a Kikuchi replacement. I could imagine Hatch or Lawrence getting a shot again but none are sure things.

Yep. They can do that, but down by 3 runs, using high leverage relievers with 3 games in 2 days following is far from optimal. 

I'm expecting Pop to be stretched out here. Push him as far as he can go. If the Jays make a comeback then the big guns come in - a win is a win and a win today should move the Jays ahead of the Rays given they are getting pounded hard today (10-1 in the 3rd).

Looking at the monthly splits, Kikuchi has been unplayable outside of May.

Mar/APr 14.1 IP 5.52 ERA 15 H 10 xbh 3HR  12 r 9 er 13/13 BB/K  263/394/544May 26.2IP  2.36 erA 17 H 6 xBH 1HR 7R 7 ER  11/31 BB/K 177/269/260June 21.1 7.17era 10 HR 314/416/721 
July 7.1 6.14era 175/375/348
Aug 17.1 7.27 ERA 6 HR 250/373/544

Home 49.1 IP 211/306/511 38 H 26XBH 14 HR 474 ERA
Away 41 ip 291/420/491
2019 50BB 161 IP2020 20BB 47IP2021 62BB 157 IP2022 57Bb 90 IP That's a HUUUUUUUUUUUUUGE change over established levels

What's different about home and away. Is he getting more clsoe calls he shouldn't? Are the errors at bad times and he's unravelling? What happened differently in May?

Pop and Merryweather have come through.  Nigel's right- Kikuchi ought to have been optioned in favour of another pitcher.  No time like after the game. 

Will today's umpire scorecard be the worst of the season? Can't imagine any worse ball/strike calling than today..

It can't be worse than the game were only 68 or 69% of actual balls were called balls.  This was bad though.

I've been comparing Vlad Jr. to Carlos Delgado a bit in my head. Delgado was 24 when he finally stuck in the majors, and it took him until he was 27 or 28 to learn how to take walks at a high rate (and be a great hitter rather than a very good one). Even at his best, it seemed to me that Delgado would get walked into a slump - he wouldn't see pitches to hit very often, and eventually would stop making good swing choices because he wanted to hit, not just walk. And then for short times, he was easier to get out, before returning to murdering the ball - talks of Bichette's hot streak make me remember the long stretches in 2000 when Delgado either walked or just crushed the ball (sometimes at someone). Loud line drives everywhere...best hot streak I can remember witnessing : May 28 to June16, 2000, he hit .491/.613/1.070 (that's SLG at the end, not OPS) over 17 games. Anyway, Delgado mostly figured out how to take walks and be happy about it. And he seemed to very much know what his favourite pitch was (inner half, low).

Vlad Jr. is still only 23, and I think still sees taking a walk as a last resort, not an offensive weapon. Every 3-1 count is a reason to swing, but without a real pitch he sits on I can notice.  He still crushes enough bad pitches to get by, and if this is the 'floor' for his performance it's not so bad. There's still time for him to become a better hitter swings at fewer out of zone pitches, or weirdly...misses more out of zone pitches (hitting balls is no way to go through a career, no matter what papi Vlad managed)?  I'm looking at his heatmaps on fangraphs for the past two years, and it looks like Guerrero's hot zone, if he has one in particular, is upper zone and above, and outer half. He's not great at hitting the middle-middle pitches, actually well below average for 2022. His best results are on pitches that aren't typically thrown in hitters counts, or all that much at all really. HE needs to punish mistakes and deal with down and away more productively. That's offseason work at this point though.

Great roadtrip. Pitching wasn't really a problem today - 4 runs against the BP is good. Like last time in Pittsburgh, setting up for a more important series, but don't love using the pen so much.  That the Jays don't have a viable 5th starter right now is on the front office. You know what's a good 5th guy? Anyone who gives to 5 innings and 3 runs right now would be welcome. White seems like that kind of pitcher, but he's been bad. Buffalo as a team seems to be really good at preventing runs, so there's at least marginal MLB talent there somewhere. In the ancient past teams would pick up veterans to fill this role rather than just hoping the season ends before the bullpen arms explode. Or they wold have 15 guys in the bullpen this time of year. I don't miss the insanely expanded rosters on that front as whole, even if the Jays could really use another 3-4 arms right now.

White seems like that kind of pitcher, but he's been bad.

He's been adequate enough in his three starts with Jansen catching (13.1 IP, 3.38) and all kinds of awful in his three starts with Kirk catching (12 IP, 13.50). Which is enough for me to say there's a combination that hasn't found its way. But Manoah is scheduled for the other game of the double-header, which would set up Jansen to catch White's game.

It can't be worse than the game were only 68 or 69% of actual balls were called balls.

The Doug Eddings game in Chicago, on June 21. The scorecard said 25 of 70 called strikes were actually balls, so he got just 64% right. Pete Walker got tossed during the course of the evening, and Guillermo Martinez was ejected before the next day's game even began, during the lineup exchange at home plate.

Thanks, Magpie, for the details on the Eddings game. The Jays took a few days to get over it, if I recall right. They don't have that luxury now.

The batters must treat yesterday's game as an outlier and the real strike zone as the strike zone. Same goes for Berrios.

Baltimore has cooled off recently. I sort of expected that. All teams have hot and cold streaks. I expected NYY to not cool down so much.

Been wondering why Magpie's "flu-like symptoms" euphemism wouldn't apply to umpires as well. Players may get that day off, but bleary-eyed umps don't have a manager to sit their asses.

As hard as I have been on Vlad I still think he is going to be the best. Just prefer her gets that treatment only when he's performing at that level.

Might be good for the FO to sign him and Bo long term with a discount on Vlad before he hits his peak, if he hits his peak.

The Rays have optioned Patino and Calvin Faucher and placed Brooks Raley on the restricted list.
So instead, they are bringing up Cooper Criswell, Kevin Herget and Javy Guerra.

Criswell, 26,  is a righty that they picked off waivers from the Angels in July. He's only pitched 1.1 inning in the majors.

Herget is a 31 vet who will probably be making his debut after coming trough the Cardinals system.

Guerra, 26, was traded from the Padres to the Rays in April for cash consideration.

Hopefully, the Jays don't waste time admiring the unknown pitchers.

Jose Fleming and Jimmy Yacabonis are also on the taxi squad. One of those will be the extra guy for Tuesday and they other will replace whoever gets DFAed after a game.

Somebody has to win the Central.

The White Sox are 9-3 since LaRussa was sent home with health issues.

The Jays took a few days to get over it, if I recall right.

If they were, it didn't show. They lost the Eddings game 7-6, but won 9-5 the following day, and 9-4 the game after that. I think they saw the Eddings zone as an aberration all along.

Up scorecard for the game is out. 69% called strike accuracy. According to their methodology the Rangers were impacted almost as much as the Jays, which doesn’t feel right to me because I counted at least 5 Ks against Jays hitters on pitches outside the zone, and the examples listed as impactful from r the Rangers was on a 1-0 pitch and an 0-0 pitch. I get that the bases were loaded, but surely turning walks into strike outs has more direct impact than going from 2-0 to 1-1, or 0-1 to 1-0.

It's very hard to measure the impact when batters lose confidence in the zone entirely. That certainly happened in the Eddings game and to some extent yesterday.

Yeah, the way they score the impact is quite questionable.

17 balls were called strikes. 5 inside, 1 low, and 11 outside.
The 3 most impactful calls were 3 balls inside.
Some of the outside calls were much further away from the plate.
5 balls were rightfully called balls even though some similar pitches were called strikes.
Only 1 low ball was called a strike.
Those would be the most frustrating calls.

It says that none of the called balls were strikes.
I thought Richards didn't get a call in the first inning.
My impression after the first inning was that the inside corner was generous which was in favor or the lefty throwing his inside cutter to right handed hitters.
I kinda lost interest after that.

69% called strike accuracy for Rob Drake.

Yep - details on his bad game. He was consistent, but basically called all but the most painfully obvious pitches strikes.

Shane McClanahan is starting Thursday...

This long after the fact but in the last game Manoah pitched, he had a string of 14 straight retired when the umpire missed a called third strike on the batter ( I forget who). It was a bad miss as by pitch tracker the entire ball was in the zone, and on the next pitch the batter hit a double. No damage was done as Manoah got the next two out.

Surprisingly, I saw somewhere afterwards that the umpire ( again I don't remember his name) was a minor league call-up and actually otherwise had an excellent game calling balls and strikes ( 96/97 percentile) with the missed strike being only one of three in the entire game. I guess I don't have a point other than even the best umpires can blow calls.

The most egregiously bad calls yesterday were actually inside to RHBs.  It's actually a  dangerous thing even if consistent, because batters have to hang in longer when the strike zone is enlarged in that way. 

Biggio gets the start at second base and Tapia is in left-field facing righthander Cooper Criswell tonight.

The trivia question yesterday attracted zero interest, but the answers follow.  Willie Mays had his highest batting average at Parc Jarry and his lowest at Braves Field in Boston.  Small sample sizes.

According to their methodology the Rangers were impacted almost as much as the Jays, which doesn’t feel right to me

From what I understand they look at each pitch in isolation. I've said it before, I think it is a flawed approach. It gets absurd results like a 3-2 ball incorrectly called a strike as more impactful than 1-2 strike called a ball in the same at bat. The 3-2 result would never have happened if the first pitch was correctly called It also does not properly account for that recent game with 2 HR AFTER blown 3rd strikes. Those runs should not have happened if the calls were correct, so the leverage on the blown call should be higher.
IMO each pitch, at bat that happens after a blown call that wouldn't have happened otherwise, or run that scores that would not have if a blown call would have been correct (like an error extends an inning causing unearned runs) should add leverage to the blown call. That does not happen, therefore the impact of the blown calls is not properly being calculated.

In the aim of neutrality, the results are completely skewed by changing leverage to improperly calculate certain blown calls.

I think it makes sense to look at the leverage of the calls that are made/lost as the primary issue for who was helped/hurt. Since if an umpire was fixing a game that would be what could be done (I.e., low leverage given to one team to clear the way for high leverage to the other). I don't think umpires are actually throwing games, but the errors can act like they are if they are unbalanced by leverage.

The US Open now doesn't have human linesmen using the machines. Baseball needs to move with the program and get the robo-balls-strikes asap.