Did not expect to have a crucial series against the fricken orioles in september but good to see the Jays are feeling the urgency - we finally get a no-scrub lineup in game 1:

* 1. Springer CF
* 2. Guerrero 1B
* 3. Bichette SS
* 4. Kirk C
* 5. Teoscar RF
* 6. Chapman DH
* 7. Biggio 2B
* 8. Gurriel LF
* 9. Espinal 3B

The irony is had we played the Orioles a tonne when the Yanks did, our position with the New Yorkers would probably be reversed.

Put up or Shut up time!

Based on the standings, it looks like the only obstacle between the Jays and a playoff spot is going to be the Orioles, so they have to take care of business here and for the rest of the month. Being the last WC team isn't necessarily a bad thing since it's going to lead to a Wild Card series against the winner of the AL Central, so just have to do enough to get in at this point.

I love that Orioles closer Felix Bautista entrance music is Omar's whistle from the TV series The Wire - probably my favourite tv series.

The Jays likely optimal starting 9 position players all have a wRC+ of 110 or better. Not sure i've ever seen that before. It's impressive.

*1. Guerrero 138
*2. Kirk 137
*3. Springer 130
*4. Teoscar 124
*5. Chapman 123
*6. Biggio 113
*7. Gurriel 112
*8. Bichette 111
*9. Jansen 110

*10. Espinal 99




*11. Collins 93
*12. Tapia 83
*13. Merrifield 77
*14. Moreno 70
*15. Bradley 55
*16. Zimmer 34

Great to see Espinal back, and the decision to give Chapman a DH day is a wise one.

I like the batting order. Let's see if that perpetual underachiever Bichette actually earns the #3 spot.

Say, does anyone know how BR determines regulars at each position? Kirk leads at DH and C, and is listed at C as the 'regular', while Collins is at DH even though Kirk, Springer, and Vlad all have more DH games. Collins has 13 games, 12 starts at DH vs Kirk's 41/39. At C we have Kirk 67/64 then Jansen 45/40. So Jansen has far more playing time overall and the spread from Kirk to Collins is 28/27 vs Jansen 22/24.

Eh, just bugs me when I look on the page and see Collins as the regular at DH with 79 PA while listed as 'bench' are Tapia 338, Biggio 237, and Jansen 165.

Btw, for bWAR leaders (they list top 12 on the Jays page) you have Manoah 4.2, Kirk 3.8, Vlad 3.7, Springer 3.2, Chapman 3.0, Gausman 2.7, Romano 2.5, Teoscar 2.5, Espinal 2.1, Stripling 2.0, Gurriel 1.6, Bo 1.6. Last year you had Semien 7.3, Vlad 6.8, Ray 6.5, Bo 5.9, rest sub 4 (2-3.9 for Teoscar, Gurriel, Manoah, Espinal, Springer, Romano, Matz, everyone else sub 2). So if Gurriel and Bo can pick it up this month the Jays could have more 2+ guys than last year, but I don't see anyway Manoah, Kirk, or Vlad can climb to 7+ in a month - would love to see it though - would just take Manoah going Orel Hershiser '88 (6 games, 6 9+ IP 0 R allowed, his last start went 10 IP 0 R so he could break the consecutive IP without allowing a run record, but his team failed to score while he was in so they lost after Orel left). I think Vlad or Kirk would need a 10+ HR month to get there - again would be fun to see but very unlikely.

So what to expect for this series? I hope for good starting pitching for the Jays and poor from the O's. But given what we've seen lately who knows?

may as well send Bichette here.

Say, does anyone know how BR determines regulars at each position?

They can't list one player twice, at two spots. Collins has the most DH games once you eliminate everyone who's already the top starter at one of the other positions.

robot umps now

I missed that PA. I take it Gausman struck out Santander at least once, but the ump blew the call(s), then Santander hit a home run?

Yes, exactly that.

Yep, greenfrog. Ball about split the inside corner. Should have been a strike, but wasn’t atrocious. Those are often 50:50’s. Next pitch, homer on a bad change up. Tough break.

Exactly right greenfrog.

The pitch was an obvious strike. 50% over the white of the plate. Called a ball.

Super annoying

It’s raining and going to be a long day. If I were managing, I would have found a way to get thrown out of the game on that Santander AB. That’s mostly a reflection of my laziness, but it was such lousy umpiring that no one would suspect:)

He just gave baumann a strike on a pitch that was two inches outside at the same height….

Gausman looks fired up and focused.

Now the bats need to do their job. And for the love of Kevin, can they please stop hitting into double plays?

What fabulous baserunning by Springer. Hopefully Kirk cashes him in.

Baseball gods even it back out

Thank you very much.

Outside pitches are always called more frequently than ones that are high and tight. Gausman should've made a better pitch to finish off Santander.

Rookie mistake there from Henderson not recognizing who was running down the line.

Gausman did his job. The umpire failed to do his.

Seven in a row retired by Gausman. Let’s get five innings in with a lead.

Rookie mistake there from Henderson

That can happen when you decide a guy will learn how to play a new position, and do this learning in major league games.

Aaaaaaaand right back to advantage Orioles….

Everyone, make sure you pay attention to the umpires. We are all here to see them, ignore the baseball teams.

This is a big inning for the Jays. Maybe the decisive one in the game.

A couple 98s from Gausman. Nice. I didn’t know he had that much gas

Superb pitching to shut down that potential rally.

Agree greenfrog- with some help from the home plate umpire too

Baumann looks a whole lot like Gausman. Build, start-from-the-stretch, the hair, compact delivery. A little weird.

Baumann looks a whole lot like Gausman.

He's even got the foot twitch, although Baumann only twitches once.

I’m happy to come on here and say that Bo and Vlad have been hauling ass today, for once. This team actually looks pretty good today.

<br>so many blown strikes today. At least they've helped both teams- though no ody as much as Santander- but it's just so so so bad.

Elite pitching by Gausman so far today. As always, another insurance run or two would be helpful.

Gausman is bringing it today

Man, I hope they find a taker for Hernandez in the off-season. His defense is near impossible to watch.

I like the way he pitched to Santander there, aggressively using the FB including up and in to induce the popup.

One more inning for Gausman, with Mayza available to face Mullins if necessary?

It's not a mystery why that Hays ground ball went through.  They're playing the extreme shift.  I don't quite understand it playing it in a park where it's very hard to hit a home run to left.  If you're going to do it, you won't want to pitch him like that.

Huge hit for Teo. Crushed it.

I echo the exasperation most have had with Teo's defense over his five seasons with the Blue Jays. Indeed, I've advocated trading him for bullpen help and even suggested a DFA in early 2020 after one egregious gaffe and subsequent lack of effort in mitigating it.

But feats of athleticism and strength such as the one we just witnessed are precisely why the Jays haven't ever been able to cut the cord.

<br>another gift missed call for Santander

<br>two this at bat.grr

I don't think Shulman and Tabler properly broke how improbable that home run was. For most major leaguers I doubt that even reaches the warning track....Hernandez hit it comfortably out. Incredible stuff.

Teo’s moonshot looms large now.

<really frustrated with this umpiring. 2 morr strikeouts for Sabtander and 1 less HR, please.

Sorry 2 should have been strikeouts and not home runs.

Time to bear down.

Kind of an impressionistic strike zone today.

Hit-and-run please. 

Both teams have been helped/hurt by the inconsistent strike zone.

Is there a reason why Zimmer is not running for Gurriel?

<br>Both teams have been helped/hurt by the inconsistent strike zone.

Only one team has 2 HR from what should have been strikeouts.
But yes, Espinal should've been called out.

Bo is legit back, baby.

Might be our best hitter since the deadline.

Bichette becoming Bichette again is a welcome development.

Nice approach all the way around this inning.  A couple of more hits and they'll be able to get Pop in. 

I think the plan is for Zimmer to play CF for Springer.

what happened to Biggio?

what happened to Teoscar?

Merrifield pinch-hit for Biggio when they brought in Hall to face him.  Bradley replaced Teoscar for defensive purposes in the bottom of the eighth with a 2 run lead.

This is why I hate defensive replacement and punch running except in very specific situations. Teoscar versus Jackie Bradley with the bases loaded is what you can get.

Pop for the ninth.  Very nice. 

what happened to Biggio?

Orioles brought in DL Hall to pitch to Biggio, so Toronto pinch hit with Whit Merrifield.

Merryweather activated for Game 2. Lawrence optioned. Zack Collins DFAed. Merryweather is nearly 31 and has less than 50 career MLB innings. But yet the upside is still exciting...

That was the best game I've seen the Jays play this year. I would have been happy with any result. Great effort.

Only thing I would have liked was to see someone other than Cimber there.

Tapia in the lineup?  Oh please.  (Labour Day scorn)

Damn Chapman. I'm ready to put him ahead of Rolen and on par with Johnny Mac. Fantastic.

A lot of hard contact and no swinging strikes so far.

Doesn’t seem like today is one of the good Berrios starts

28th home run allowed by Berrios this year...in about 142 innings. That's a lot.

"Orioles brought in DL Hall to pitch to Biggio, so Toronto pinch hit with Whit Merrifield."

but merrifield is much worse than biggio against lhp.

If Merrifield doesn't have a role against a LHP, he ought to be restricted to pinch-hitting.  Biggio has been pretty bad against LHP over the last 2 years. 

*pinch-running

Just happy Berrios didn’t give the runs back that inning. Hopefully Jays can score some more and give more of a buffer.

There are times for a quick hook.  This is one of them.

nah keep him in. i believe.

he's throwing strikes at least.

65 pitches thru 5. has a chance to get through the inning a 3rd time and go a full 7.

He seems to have settled in. Top of the order is coming up again so this is probably the inning I’d have someone warming up. But he should be able to get one more inning which would be nice. Possible for two but who knows.

Bo, baby.

Bo is all the way back. Does wonders for the team.

Not that I’m complaining but what are the O’s doing pitching to Bichette?

Boy oh boy did Bo pick a hell of a time to find it and get hot.

I like how Bo didn't even think he got much on that one of the crack of the bat.


On another note, I am really enjoying the quiet at the ballpark.

I guess no one wants to trade Bichette, Moreno, and three or four other players for Soto anymore…?

I for sure would trade them for Soto right now.

Anyways, Bichette now up to a 116wrc+ on the season, just a tick behind last year's 122, the previous year's 120, and his career 121.

I remember this annoyingly clutch JBJ playing for boston.

And more leeway.  Very nice.

Bichette and Mountcastle appear to have had some sort of body swap. I prefer this arrangement.

I would also trade him for Soto right now. Bo, Moreno, Tiedeman for Soto, no problem.

Very good chance Bichette gets one more AB…. Just saying.

Bo is hot at the right time! He’s a Jay, get used to it.

118wrc+ for Bo now.

I wouldn’t do the Soto trade. Do we really need a Teoscar+? Because that’s what Soto is. He has no defensive or base running value. Whomever signs him to a big extension is going to regret it. Bichette despite his inconsistency plays a far more important position and imo is getting better there. You just don’t trade our best pitching and catching prospect along with a young stud SS to upgrade your corner OF.

At this point I don't think I would trade:

3.5 seasons of Bo plus 7 seasons of Moreno plus 7 seasons of Tiedemann

for

2.5 seasons of Soto

come on ump call it.

Jeff Nelson should lose his job.  That was reckless endangerment. 

I like the batting order. Let's see if that perpetual underachiever Bichette actually earns the #3 spot.

hmmmm ... scorn seems to work w Bichette.

Phew we really needed that out. Thanks Richards.

Nelson seems the type of umpire to be more concerned with imaginary balk calls than safe playing conditions. Good job by Richards to battle through that circus and minimize the damage.

Had to put the little one to bed so I missed the Nelson show. Can someone summarize? I only saw “on field delay”

This is a pathetic excuse for a game-ending.

I only saw “on field delay”

The delay was delayed. It's raining quite steadily, the mound was getting pretty muddy, and Richards had to very nearly wipe out after delivering a pitch before the ground crew was summoned with their magic dirt.

Not that anyone will ever forgive Jeff Nelson for the called strike on Ben Revere in the 2015 ALCS. But I don't know what he was thinking here.

It's coming down hard and pitchers are struggling so hard with grip and footing that control is just about impossible.  The risk of injury is extremely high.

For someone not watching why has this game not either been put in delay or called?

September game with two teams in contention.  That's the reason.

How ironic, Merryweather pitching when the weather isn't all that merry.

Merryweather pitching

Still got the big fastball. And it's still straight as a string.

Looking at Gameday I see Merryweather's fastball sits 96-99 and his change is 81-82. Not sure if its weather related but the change should be closer to 86-89. I think the gap is too big and major league hitters will be able to differentiate.

The change has good movement and is a nice pitch on its own, but not at the right velocity to add to the fastball deception.

I wonder if they told Nelson that it's going to keep raining until 2 in the morning, so if you put the game in a rain delay, we all have to sit around until midnight waiting for something that isn't going to happen before we can give up and go home? I don't know, I'm just spectacle-lating.

The change has good movement and is a nice pitch on its own, but not at the right velocity to add to the fastball deception.

So it sounds like he'd be better off if he sacrificed about 5 mph off the fastball, to get a little more movement, and also make it a better fit with his changeup.

Which makes sense, but it might be hard to convince him of that. Most of them only get a look because of how hard they throw. He's probably pretty sure that it's only the 99 mph heater that has people interested in him.

It'd be even better if Merryweather had the ability to add and subtract velocity on the fastball as Romano does.  If he a 92 mph fastball which he was able to locate well and change off it, and then threw in the 99 mph as a swing and miss pitch less frequently just outside the zone up (and maybe take a shot at the low outside corner on an 0-2), that would be interesting.  Still hasn't shown that. 

Pretty nice to get through a double header, win both games and not use out top 3 relievers at all. No Romano, Garcia or Bass is nice for the rest of the series. Baltimore had to do a bullpen game and burned their pen much harder. Just really need to split the remaining two games but still overall a nice start to this series. I think Baltimore is a pretty good up and coming team but the one thing we really have on them is our starters are better.

That's about as well as a crucial doubleheader can go. Very nice.

If Berrios can keep giving us solid outings and Vlad can join Bo on a hot streak, we could have a very fun end to the year.

The six hits and the three homers were nice, but Bichette's best play may have come when he got in between Gausman and Nelson before Gausman could get himself kicked out of the game.

Nelson ejected Gausman from a game three years ago. Miami pitcher Jose Urena came up to hit, Gausman's first pitch was behind his knees, and everyone knew why. (Urena had drilled Acuna - who was on a home run tear - on the arm with the first pitch of a game the last time they'd met. Got a six game suspension for it, but the Braves wanted a little more satisfaction.)

Excellent to get 2 wins today.

So what is the reliever churn today?
Richards: 12 pitches 1 IP
Phelps: 17 pitches 1 IP
Merryweather: 16 pitches 1 IP
Mayza: 16 pitches 2/3 IP
Cimber: 8 pitches 2/3 IP
Pop: 11 pitches 1 IP - then back to AAA

So 6 pitchers used, 5 who will be here tomorrow, none threw 20+, none went more than 1 IP, so all could be available tomorrow, all for sure by Wednesday. And of course the big 3 not touched (Bass - used Sunday for 1 IP 13 pitches; Romano used Sunday for 1 IP 20 pitches, and Garcia used Saturday for 1 2/3 IP 14 pitches). Given Romano was used a LOT on the weekend (2 saves plus warmed up but not used Friday) ideally he'd get tomorrow off again, but I guarantee he is ready to go if needed. Plus Kikuchi is still here if needed. So the Jays pen is in great shape for the final 2 games. Critical with White going tomorrow.

I am very un-religious, but I may start going to the Church of Jobu. I am now a believer.

Yeah, Bo got in front of Gausman quickly- the twitch reflex was really working today for him.

Liam Hendriks (who's kind of been scuffling since the all-star break) made it very, very exciting - gave up a run, and put the tying run on third and the winning run on second - but he eventually got the third out. The White Sox, who probably aren't as good as the Red Sox, are now 1.5 off the division lead.

none went more than 1 IP, so all could be available tomorrow

Not Phelps. No way the old guy is pitching three days in a row.

Tough day of baseball for our resident Orioles fans who find it hard to root for these Blue Jays.

Kikuchi is fairly fresh for tomorrow as well. The bullpen is in a good shape.

Bullpen has been so much better. Until end of June, jays had 23rd best Bullpen ERA at 4.36. Since Canada Day, Jays' bullpen has a 2.79 ERA which is second best in baseball. You feel the difference too. Depth of decent relievers in the minors, guys in the majors pitching well repeatedly, etc...

Definitely a tough day for fans who proclaim it’s a “big mistake” to play JBJ in important situations.

The Blue Jays found out a LH was going in the second game when the lineup cards were exchanged at home plate, minutes before first pitch. Schneider thought about changing his lineup, decided it was too close to game time.

And JBJ’s GIDP was quite unlucky. He smoked that ball 104mph, which you’d have to, to double up a fast runner on the unusual 6-2-3 DP. Rutschman made a nice play turning it with a low throw from Mateo.

Fun fact: the last AL teammates under age 25 to both have three HR games in the same season were Lou Gehrig and Tony Lazzeri for the 1927 Yankees.

In the loss column, the Jays are now equidistant from NYY and BAL (5 loss difference).

"Definitely a tough day for fans who proclaim it’s a “big mistake” to play JBJ in important situations."

No. he's one of the very worst players in baseball but even those players will have a good day now and again. I mean, I am going to judge him more by the fact that he was the the 2nd lowest WRC+ and tied for lowest WAR in all of baseball in the last 2 seasons than having one good game. (i.e. 750+ PAs matter more than 4) He still shouldn't be on the team.

I’m not saying JBJ isn’t toast, but let’s see how he does in his limited role with Toronto. He had several big hits yesterday and another one against Cole in a huge game. Those hits count; they helped win two ballgames.

Sometimes a seemingly-toasty player rebounds. Like Drury 2018-2021 versus Drury 2022.

This was the Mountcastle t-shirt day. Loved it.

Possibly a rain out today.

Biggio should definitely start vs. every RHP, but Gurriel should be thrown into that playing rotation as well.

Since May 26th, Biggio's return from AAA:

Biggio 6hr 33r 23rbi 1.7fwar (216 PA)
Gurriel 3hr 39r 39rbi 1.3fwar (338 PA)
Espinal 5hr 31r 29rbi 1.1fwar (294 PA)

And with Bradley around, there's little reason for Tapia to play. Merrifield can start in CF vs. LHP.

I'd rather Bradley in the lineup than Tapia at least.

With the MLBPA moving to unionize the minor leagues, I'm expecting that the owners will move to downsize the number of teams and employees.

In left field, Tapia's bat catches up to JBJ's defense.

It's a mix of resting regulars and keeping the backups from rusting until the next injury happens.
Teoscar is visibly hobbled.

I did not like giving up Max Castillo but the Jays want to win now (make the playoffs) so Merrifield improves that.

Sorry, Tapia's bat?

He has a wRC+ of -9 since July 30th and has been worth -0.8 WAR!

Since Deadline:

*1.Bichette 132pa, 162wrc+, 6.9war650
*2.Springer 84pa, 147wrc+, 6.2war650
*3.Biggio 61pa, 145wrc+, 6.4war650
*4.Teoscar 121pa, 126wrc+, 3.8war650
*5.Guerrero 148pa, 116wrc+, 1.8war650
*6.Kirk 114pa, 93wrc+, 1.7war650
*7.Espinal 74pa, 93wrc+, 1.8war650
*8.Jansen 69pa, 91wrc+, 2.8war650
*9.Chapman 134pa, 90wrc+, 1.9war650

*10.Gurriel 121pa, 74wrc+, -1.6war650
*11.Bradley 40pa, 68wrc+, -1.6war650
*12.Merrifield 62pa, 57wrc+, -1.1war650

*13.Tapia 64pa, 2wrc+, -7.1war650



Season

*1.Guerrero 583pa, 137wrc+, 3.1war650
*2.Kirk 451pa, 146wrc+, 4.9war650
*3.Springer 465pa, 130wrc+, 4.6war650
*4.Teoscar 440pa, 128wrc+, 3.7war650
*5.Chapman 511pa, 120wrc+, 4.5war650
*6.Bichette 578pa, 118wrc+, 3.5war650
*7.Biggio 244pa, 116wrc+, 3.7war650
*8.Gurriel 488pa, 114wrc+, 1.2war650
*9.Jansen 169pa, 112wrc+, 4.2war650

*10.Espinal 452pa, 99wrc+, 3.2war650

*11.Collins 79pa, 93wrc+, 0.8war650
*12.Merrifield 482pa, 76wrc+, 0.7war650
*13.Moreno 60pa, 70wrc+, 1.1war650

*14.Tapia 342pa, 82wrc+, -0.8war650
*15.Bradley 330pa, 59wrc+, -0.6war650
*16.Zimmer 103pa, 34wrc+, -0.6war650





Last Calendar Year

*1.Guerrero 706pa, 141wrc+, 3.5war650
*2.Teoscar 558pa, 133wrc+, 4.2war650
*3.Kirk 508pa, 132wrc+, 4.6war650
*4.Springer 574pa, 128wrc+, 4.3war650
*5.Bichette 696pa, 125wrc+, 4.2war650
*6.Jansen 228pa, 122wrc+, 5.4war650
*7.Biggio 248pa, 119wrc+, 4.2war650
*8.Gurriel 579pa, 118wrc+, 1.7war650
*9.Chapman 592pa, 111wrc+, 3.8war650

*10.Espinal 485pa, 106wrc+, 3.8war650
*11.Collins 99pa, 100wrc+, 0.7war650
*12.Merrifield 606pa, 77wrc+, 0.9war650
*13.Moreno 60pa, 70wrc+, 1.1war650

*14.Tapia 342pa, 82wrc+, -0.8war650
*15.Bradley 330pa, 59wrc+, -0.6war650
*16.Zimmer 165pa, 40wrc+, -1.2war650

Season vRHP

*1.Guerrero 484pa, 142wrc+
*2.Kirk 362pa, 140wrc+
*3.Springer 360pa, 136wrc+
*4.Biggio 207pa, 119wrc+
*5.Gurriel 395pa, 119wrc+
*6.Bichette 482pa, 118wrc+
*7.Teoscar 365pa, 118wrc+
*8.Chapman 417pa, 116wrc+
*9.Jansen 123pa, 93wrc+

*10.Collins 68pa, 109wrc+

*11.Tapia 291pa, 85wrc+
*12.Espinal 339pa, 82wrc+
*13.Merrifield 345pa, 75wrc+
*14.Bradley 263pa, 62wrc+
*15.Moreno 40pa, 46wrc+
*16.Zimmer 61pa, 36wrc+



vLHP

*1.Teoscar 75pa, 176wrc+
*2.Jansen 46pa, 160wrc+
*3.Espinal 113pa, 150wrc+
*4.Chapman 94pa, 135wrc+
*5.Bichette 96pa, 119wrc+
*6.Kirk 90pa, 117wrc+
*7.Springer 104pa, 109wrc+
*8.Guerrero 99pa, 108wrc+
*9.Biggio 37pa, 98wrc+

*10.Gurriel 93pa, 95wrc+
*11.Moreno 20pa, 119wrc+

*12.Merrifield 137pa, 79wrc+
*13.Tapia 51pa, 64wrc+
*14.Bradley 67pa, 51wrc+
*15.Zimmer 26pa, 19wrc+
*16.Collins 11pa, -4wrc+

Bichette has been a major disappointment this season, until recently. He's stepped up, delivered and looks to be hitting his potential which is very good to see. I'd grade him and Springer far higher than Vladdy right now with the game on the line. Perhaps Vlad needs more time to continue developing. Perhaps the Jays FO can resign him for a bit less money this offseason compared to if he repeated the insanity of last year.

"I’m not saying JBJ isn’t toast, but let’s see how he does in his limited role with Toronto."

Bradley's decline is pretty understandable and unlike Drury,, there aren't theoretical underlying skills that might develop . He was never a good hitter and elite defense almost always will fade by early 30s so you take a guy who was an amazing fielder and below average hitter and he gets worse at both and now he's a good fielder and a terrible hitter. He has hit the ball pretty well so far in Toronto but it's a super small sample size for a player with a very known skill set. He's actually been way better than he was last year and was still released by the Red Sox. I prefer Zimmer because Zimmer is much faster and a way better fielder. He's probably a worse hitter but what the Jays should be using this position for (pinch running and D) Zimmer is better at both. I mean, Bradley is -1.9 WAR over his last 700 PAs. That's spectacularly bad

I've had a view for a while now that Biggio should be a near full time player. He should be the 2B of choice against most RHP. He should definitely be the first LHB of choice for any corner OF role when not at 2B. Schneider's initial assessment was different than mine but that seems to be changing.

I think you could make a strong case for DFA'ing Tapia for a 3rd C today but we know management doesn't agree with that.

I'm not disappointed by Espinal's season, so I can hardly be disappointed by Bichette. And I'm not. Now Kikuchi....

I was befuddled by the addition of Bradley to a team that already had Zimmer (and then the reacquisition of Zimmer.) But whatever - a team that plays Gurriel and Hernandez in the corners can use some defensive caddies. And Springer plays hard and he's probably reached the age when playing so hard stats to work against him a little. And Bradley hasn't really declined that much with the bat. There was never much there to begin with, just Fenway Park propping up his numbers for years and years.

Disagree on Biggio being the obvious choice for corner OF. I like his bat and all but I don’t think he’s very good in the OF and is defensively inferior to all of them. Sure his bat is much better and that makes the trade off maybe ok but really the only places I want Biggio to play defense is 2b and 1b. Maybe 3b in an emergency but keep him out of the OF.

Looking at logs looks like Schneider agrees that Biggio is not an OF. Hasn’t played there in 3 weeks.

I've had a view for a while now that Biggio should be a near full time player. He should be the 2B of choice against most RHP.

I think that was the original plan, but Espinal got off to such a good start and Biggio went 1 for April and then went on the COVID list. He's had to fight his way back into the lineup ever since.

Disagree on Biggio being the obvious choice for corner OF.

And I agree with you! He's not an outfielder. Why would he be? You generally can't just take a guy, say "you're an outfielder" and expect him to be good at it. I have no doubt that Biggio could be a good outfielder. Once he's played more than a few dozen games there, scattered over several years. But until then...

8/20 was the last time Tapia played a corner and Biggio wasn't in the lineup, so Schneider has smartened up there.

My view is that Biggio's bat more than makes up for the defensive downgrade to Tapia or JBJ. I don't think that its particularly close either. I agree that it's not ideal. You really want a better LH OF. But, you should really be keeping Hernandez and Gurriel in the line-up as much as possible.

To be clear, I'm suggesting Biggio is the best LH corner OF choice.

Bradley's decline is pretty understandable and unlike Drury,, there aren't theoretical underlying skills that might develop . He was never a good hitter and elite defense almost always will fade by early 30s so you take a guy who was an amazing fielder and below average hitter and he gets worse at both and now he's a good fielder and a terrible hitter. He has hit the ball pretty well so far in Toronto but it's a super small sample size for a player with a very known skill set. He's actually been way better than he was last year and was still released by the Red Sox. I prefer Zimmer because Zimmer is much faster and a way better fielder. He's probably a worse hitter but what the Jays should be using this position for (pinch running and D) Zimmer is better at both. I mean, Bradley is -1.9 WAR over his last 700 PAs. That's spectacularly bad


Not sure I agree with the argument. Zimmer had his probable career year last year with OPS+ of 85, and one good year as a 24-year-old rookie. Last year was good for 1.2 WAR. in 100 games, 2017, 1.6 WAR in 101 games. Aside from those two seasons (obvious anomalies, IMHO), he's a lifetime 0.0 WAR player. And his defense is only mildly positive (best dWar of 0.3 in 99 games) aside from his first season where he had 0.8. Heck, he amassed 0.3 dWar in 9 games in PHI, where he's only had 0.1 in TOR in 81 games. And a -0.4 oWAR (TOR).

JBJ has had 3 seasons of OPS+ >= 116, including a 116 OPS+ season 2 years ago (i.e. one season longer ago than Zimmer's obvious career year), and this year, he's at OPS+ 61, way better than Zimmer. Yes, he had an atrocious 2021 - but all of his seasons between 2015-2020 were better than Zimmer's best. In 2020, he had 2.0 WAR in 55 games - Zimmer managed a 1.2 in 99 games. Adjusting for GP, JBJ had 3.599 (3.6) WAR in 99 games, or 3x the value of Zimmer in 2021. So he can actually get hot and carry a team for a bit.

Yes, he had a really, really bad 2021. Does that mean he's done for good? 2020 JBJ was basically this year's Gurriel Jr with the bat plus good defense. 2021 Zimmer was Tapia with good defense.

Zimmer has had ONE outfield assist since 2018 - JBJ had TEN in 2019 alone and 2 already this year with the Jays. Zimmer doesn't seem like he's got a good arm (I could be wrong), but JBJ has 67 lifetime outfield assists in just over 1000 games vs 13 in 335 games for Zimmer.

To me, Zimmer is the guy who wilts under pressure (i.e. any expectations). JBJ isn't a great player anymore, but seems lik ehe does better at dealing with the pressure, plus he has a good arm. I know who I'd pick for my post-season roster.

You should bear in mind that Bradley did not have a good year in 2020. He had one good month (September) which was to enough to give him a nice looking "season." Tapia had a month like that this season, and no one cared.

Fenway Park propping up [Bradley's] numbers for years and years.

Why did I say that? Because in 469 career games at Fenway he's hit .262/.339/.436 and in his 650 career games everywhere else he's hit .202/.282/.351.

The only thing disappointing about Bichette's season really is that he's gone from 25/1 to 9/7 stealing bases.

I suppose, but doesn't the 25-1 just scream "FLUKE" to the high heavens? He was never that fast to start with, and he was 8-5 before that season.

25-1 stealing bases in a 23 year old with above-average speed doesn't scream fluke to me.  There may be an element of luck, but at that rate, it looks to me like he's learned something about reading moves, maximizing leads and picking his spots well.  But if you lose 1 foot of speed every 2 seconds, it's going to be a lot harder to steal bases. 

I'd say for 2022/23 offseason the Jays need to find a new everyday outfielder and clear out one of Hernandez or Gurriel or make one of them play the Tapia/Grichuk role (4th OF/DH).

Free agent #1 is obviously Aaron Judge but he is staying in NY as a Yankee or Met most likely (it'd be nice to see him leave the Yankees). An interesting possibility is Kevin Kiermaier who has a team option for $13 mil for 2023 which I can't see Tampa picking up - they might, but then might flip him right away too. Basically Zimmer+ on defense with a 90 OPS+. Brandon Nimmo of the Mets is an interesting one - 110+ OPS+ every year since 2017, CF. Never an all-Star, never played more than 140 games. But looks like a good fit, even bats left.

That's not exactly fair, Magpie.  Bradley took a while to get rolling as a hitter, but was an ace defensive centerfielder.  From 2016 to 2020, he was a pretty good hitter- better at home of course, but perfectly fine on the road (roughly .230/.310/.430).  If you group his road seasons for 2016-17, you get 581 PAs, 129 hits, 23 doubles, 4 triples, 25 home runs, 56 walks, 134 strikeouts.  That's a good hitter for a centerfielder and for a great defensive centerfielder, that's terrific.  If you group his road seasons for 2018-20, you get 585 PAs, 120 hits, 30 doubles, 2 triples, 24 home runs, 60 walks and 179 strikeouts.  That's a decent hitter for a centerfielder- obviously striking out too much and hence with a poor batting average but with power and walks. 

25-1 stealing bases

That's always going to scream fluke to me, no matter who's running. I do think it probably encouraged the pitchers to pay more attention to him and make sure to keep him a step closer to first base.

I obviously don't have anywhere near the same belief in Bradley as a hitter, but there's one thing about him that does intrigue me. He's had a habit of getting really, really hot. Just once a year, and he doesn't do much the rest of the time, but still - in August 2015, he hit .354; in May 2016, he hit .381; in June 2017, he hit .353. Nothing much happened in 2018, but in June 2019 he hit .315 and in September 2020 he hit .326. That was two years ago, and he hasn't done much since, but if he's got one more of those months in him... I mean, he probably doesn't but youneverknow.

the Jays need to find a new everyday outfielder and clear out one of Hernandez or Gurriel

I wonder what would happen if the Jays gave Hernandez the Edwin Encarnacion treatment and just made him the everyday DH and let him concentrate on hitting.

Hernandez is a 3 WAR player this year and Gurriel is a 2 WAR player. They are not problems which need to be addressed

We can’t make Hernandez the every day DH. We already have Springer, Vlad and Kirk who need too much time there. His defense isn’t that bad either. We do need a better fourth OF (or make Gurriel that) but that OF has to be a good CF which limits the options.

Don't get me wrong, Magpie.  I think that Bradley may still have the ability to be a useful part-time centerfielder getting 250-300 PAs a year, fulfilling the same role as Marisnick did for Springer but from the left-side of the plate.  I am not sure that he is better than Tapia in that role, which is not where you want to be.  You do not, I repeat do not, need Bradley and Zimmer and Tapia.  Just one who is a net positive would do the trick. 

Tonight's Orioles starter Kyle Bradish has some pretty extreme reverse-splits this year (.683/.887 L/R OPS). The Jays probably won't face a LHP until Sunday, so Merrifield might get the start today in CF with Kirk at C and Springer DH. Management must be eager to get Whit going with the 6.75MM price tag next year.

Kikuchi and Garcia are the freshest bullpen arms for tonight, followed by Bass and Romano. Rutschman can't hit lefties so Mayza might get a couple batters too.

Merrifield might get the start today in CF with Kirk at C and Springer DH.

I dunno. Kirk will be catching tomorrow - he also caught White's last two starts, which were the opposite of excellent. So I expect it will be Jansen tonight. I'm hoping for Kirk dh, Biggio 2b, Springer cf - the classic lineup! - but that's probably too much to ask.

That would be 4 days in a row of catching for Jansen, which the Jays haven't done all season.

Well, if these guys - Tapia, Bradley, Zimmer - were better ballplayers, they wouldn't be getting jobs as fourth outfielders, would they.

I think Tapia has some upside as a hitter - he's the best of the three either way - but you can't really play that arm in RF and I'm not too keen on him in CF, either. Which makes it hard for him to be the extra outfielder, all by himself. You still need a glove. Bradley and Zimmer can provide that, they're both very comforting to have out in the field, wherever you put them. I don't expect them to hit, and having both of them does seem redundant. Still, I'll bet Zimmer gets more action in September - just pinch running and playing the occasional inning at the end of a win - than Zack Collins ever would have.

That would be 4 days in a row of catching for Jansen

True dat. Still, Schneider's a fiendish monster who's already had Jansen catch a day game after a night game. He's capable of anything!

Hernandez has 2 years of over 2 WAR - this year (2.7 so far) and last (3.9) at ages 28 and 29 (prime for peak). One can argue 2020 (1.4 but adjust for length and you get an over 3 year). Odds are Teoscar has 2 or 3 more decent years before falling to sub 2 level again. FanGraphs has him at 4.2 last year, 2.5 this, 1.5 in 2020.

Gurriel has 1 (one) year over 2 WAR - last year at 2.8, again one can argue about 2020 (1.1 = 2-3 range). This year is a 1.8 so far. This is his age 28 year. FanGraphs has him with no years over 2 WAR - last year at 1.7, this year 0.9. Their fielding system has him as a nightmare in the field.

Now, where else could one improve the team? Another #1 starter is always nice but expensive, more pen depth again a good thing (but pure crapshoot often). Not sure where else the Jays really can improve (2B? Espinal/Biggio/Merryfield are all potential everyday starters, Espinal over 2 fWAR this year, Biggio at 1.4 in 76 games, Merryfield was a 3.0 player last year for the 4th time in 5 years - only missing 2020 of course (on pace for it that year) but just 0.5 this year. Really the OF is the only spot in the lineup I can see improvement can be made practically and you mix in that both Hernandez and Gurriel will be free agents post 2023 I see it as important to look at replacing at least one of them - especially when you mix in how both are nightmares on defense regularly.

Not sure where else the Jays really can improve

I'm not planning to even think about this for at least two months, but I know this - if the team is second in the league in runs scored, and eighth in the league (exactly average) in runs allowed, I think I know where I want to start.

And one of your effective starting pitchers is a free agent..

But that's definitely a discussion for November. Let's see the home nine catch the Yankees.

Yep, better defense thus needing upgrades on Hernandez and Gurriel. So lets chase down Kiermaier this winter, thus allowing Springer to go to RF and skyrocketing the OF defense with Gurriel or Hernandez in LF.

For pitching we know Manoah-Gausman-Berrios will be there no matter what, and odds are super-high that Kikuchi will get another shot in the rotation. Leaving 1 slot for whoever - be it White, Stripling returning as a FA, another FA, a trade, whatever. Ryu won't be back until late August at best, and most likely not at all. I'd bet on White getting that 5th slot with the Jays trying hard all winter to find an upgrade so White/Kikuchi can fight for one slot with any kids (Pearson, Kay, Hatch, Thornton, whoever).

The pen likewise is mostly set - Romano-Garcia-Bass-Mayza-Cimber-Richards-Merryweather-Pop are all under team control for 2023. Mix in others like Gage, the losers from the starting battle, plus other kids coming up and I don't see the Jays tossing money at the pen again. Phelps is a free agent too btw and could be resigned but I wouldn't be shocked if he retires.

So free agents - Stripling-Phelps-JBJ this year, 2023/24: Hernandez-Gurriel-Chapman-Ryu-Cimber. Merryfield is signed for under $3 mil next year (not bad for a backup), then a $6.5 mil option for 2024.

Thus for 2023/24 most of the team will remain the same, but LF/RF/3B can all change post 2023 and odds are the Jays will try to lock in at least one of them before then.

Merrifield is in the starting lineup at second base and Espinal is on the bench. Espinal had success against Bradish in June and August, but he may need more time to heal.

There's only one actual flaw in our lineup, and it doesn't seem like it should be that big a deal, but it causes major problems for us.

- We have a starting 9 that are quality fulltime starters that don't need to be pinch hit for, and give us good defense around most all of the diamond.

- the closest guy to needing any pinch hitting for is Biggio vLHP, but he's actually not too bad there. But Espinal has been so good vLHP that it makes for an easy platoon. And Espinal fields so many positions and is still solid vRHP.

- so that's 10 starter-quality guys, with almost every position having a starter-calibre redundancy built in. So the Jays can lose/rest a starter and still have starting calibre offense and defense at every slot....

-...except for the one position we don't have a starter caliber redundancy for, and that's CF. CF is the only place we can't plug in another starter caliber guy when the starter needs a break.

- It also happens that the starting CF needs breaks more than anyone else, unfortunately.

- So now, to fill in that 1 seemingly minor hole - backup CF - we have no less than FOUR candidates taking up roster spots to try and fill it. Merrifield, Tapia, Bradley, Zimmer.

- That's four bench slots taken by guys trying to fill only one hole. Not great efficiency there. There are other needs that could be addressed with those roster spots - we could use a 3rd C, we could use a primetime pinch runner for the playoffs, we could use a bench bat with some pop. And we have guys in the minors that could possibly fill those needs well.

- So we're stuck with four guys trying to address one real need. I don't see any one of them that can address that need by himself, but maybe we could try to get down to 2 of those guys instead of 4.

- There's only one guy with semi-recent track record to suggest he could fill MOST of that role, and that's Merrifield. But it's been a while now that he hasn't hit so maybe that's a pipe dream. I think we should probably look to him as the best solution and give him the most playing time, especially since he gives us defensive cover in the IF too. BUt even if his bat comes round to career norms he's still not a good enough CF that you wouldn't want to carry a 2nd guy with a true plus CF glove as defensive insurance.

- So you need to keep one of Bradley or Zimmer. I don't feel strongly either way, though i'm probably leaning Zimmer because he's probably the best defensive CF and he is also probably the best pinch runner too (or is he? anyone have a view on who's the best pinch runner?). But I could also see arguments for favoring Bradley. Either way, we really shouldn't have both on the roster.

- Tapia? I dunno why he's here. There was kind of a need before but with Merrifield and Bradley here i don't see how he fits. he can't field anything other than LF and his little offensive streak is long over. I guess there may be one role he could fill - is he maybe our best pinch runner? anyone feel strongly about that?


All in all it seems crazy to me that we are literally using four bench spots to address basically one (secondary) need.

What are the current rules for playoffs roster size now? We're going to need a 3rd catcher added you would think.

The Orioles have a really easy schedule remaining - I think the Jays need to win these head to head games.

You only need 3 SPs in the Wild Card Series (and really in the Division Series too unless you're scared of using a guy on 3 days rest in Game 5). If the bullpen was Stripling, Romano, Garcia, Bass, Mayza, Richards, Phelps, and Cimber they could actually carry a six-man bench of Moreno, Biggio, Zimmer, Bradley, Tapia, and Merrifield. They would probably be inclined to carry a 9th RP though.

you're scared of using a guy on 3 days rest in Game 5

Yup. I'm scared. I frighten easily, but Berrios, Manoah, and Gausman have never, ever started a game on three days rest. The post-season seems a strange time to find out if they can or not.

Fair enough, but in the ALDS there’s a day off after both Game 1 and Game 2, so you can still get by with the same 11 pitchers and start Stripling in Game 5.

Given that Ross Stripling has pitched well, I'd definitely want a 4 man playoff rotation - Also, I've been wary of playoff starters on 3 days rest since the Dave Stieb debacle in 1985.

Espinal resting after getting hit on the hand makes sense to me.

As to catching the Yankees... this is fun to watch. A Yankee implosion would be wonderful, regardless of the Jays or Rays beating them. FanGraphs has the Jays with the same odds of winning it as the Yankees at 7.5% each. 100% of the Yankees making the playoffs, Jays at 97.7%, Rays 95.3%, O's down to 3.4%, Mariners at 99.2%, Astros 100%, then the NL Central mess - from 46.6% Cleveland to 31.5% Minnesota to 25.4% for the White Sox. 3.6% combines for the 3 AL Central teams shot at the wild card, so it looks like the Jays-Rays-Mariners for the 3 WC slots but there is a slim shot for the O's, Red Sox (0.8%), and the 3 AL Central teams. Under 1 in 10 odds of any of them making it but there is a chance.

So for the playoffs what is the bench/bullpen/rotation? Bench: Biggio-Jansen-Merrifield-JBJ or Zimmer or Tapia. I suspect the usual DH mix will happen with Kirk there most often.
Rotation: Manoah-Gausman-Berrios-Stripling if healthy otherwise bullpen day.
Bullpen: Romano-Garcia-Bass-Phelps-Mayza-Cimber-Richards-Kikuchi I suspect.

And the playoffs are not a strange time to see if a guy can pitch on 3 days rest. It's the only time.

I think the lineup thing just is because of the weakness of our upper minors especially in position players. Like you can bring up Moreno sure but he’s a worse bat than the two catchers now so he just sits on his butt most the time. They I think want to keep having him play everyday and then trade someone in the offseason to make him the backup.

But who is there in there to come up and hit? No one really. Part of that is players like Groshans and Martin but problem is some AAAA types. (Although Drury and H Ramirez are having good years now so maybe just need patience) So they’re just maximizing defensive flexibility for their OF. I do think Tapia is pointless now either Bradley but if you dump Tapia it’s not for Moreno. You ideally want another Espinal type but with maybe a different platoon advantage.

I've been wary of playoff starters on 3 days rest since the Dave Stieb debacle in 1985.

The way Morris and Cone pitched in their second starts in the 1992 ALCS, both on three days, definitely would not have changed your mind. Gastin immediately said "enough of that" and got Jimmy Key a start in the World Series.

Bichette is scorching hot.

Magpie, please photoshop or superimpose an image of Bo's face over top of Jobu's...

Bo knows baseball.

Help us Bo.

We offer rum.

We offer penance.

Seeing Odor on the O’s is icing on the cake. Can we get a bat flip from someone?

please photoshop or superimpose an image of Bo's face over top of Jobu's...

I wouldn't dare.

I think Gurriel might have a good bat flip in him. But he doesn't hit home runs any more.

Mitch White flirting with, if not actively courting, danger here.

No defense for this.

Everything was going so well. Then he just completely fell apart.

BB, BB, HBP. That’s just demoralizingly bad. Is the strike zone really that elusive?

Home plate don't move.

All three O’s runs (so far) resulted from free passes. That’s bad.

Why aid white still out there. Enough

White is proving to be quite the magician - his latest trick is making me wistful for Kikuchi.

Important to stanch the bleeding right here.

Game is far from over but White's ineptitude is really a frustrating turn of events. The team really was starting to roll in all facets, for the first time all season and now it looks like they'll have a depleted bullpen the rest of the series and let the O's back up off the mat.

I feel exactly the same way Petey. This team just can’t help making things as hard as possible for themselves

Jansen caught White's first three games here - 5 ER in 13.1 IP (3.38). Kirk's caught his last three - 18 ER in 11.2 IP (13.89).

I think I'm detecting a pattern.

Disappointing inning by White but the game is still early and close. You hate to burn the bullpen but the Jays can still win this one (if Vlad can stop grounding into outs).

LGJ may not be able to hit home runs at the moment, but he delivered a big base hit there.

BB, BB, HBP. That’s just demoralizingly bad. Is the strike zone really that elusive?Home plate don't move.
But sometimes Umpires blinkI haven't been paying attention so I don't know what the calls have been like, but it's Nelson, isn't it? So bad umping is likely. It's my default assumption these days when I see big innings without lots of hits or HR.

Nelson had nothing to do with it.  White was wild in the 3rd after being in control for 2 innings.  The Orioles did have a better approach though.  Less chase. 

Nelson did have something to do with putting Vlad in the hole 0-1 to start his PA in T4, though.

Another disappointing PA from Merrifield (first and third with none out, failure to cash in a run).

Is Cedric Mullins on cold meds? He has been in a fog all series.

Another disappointing PA from Merrifield

And Springer, guessing breaking ball with two strikes. Reasonable to expect one, but you still have to be ready for the heat.

All three of those at bats were disappointing. At least Merrifield got the ball in the air

The first pitch to Guerrero Jr. was a ball called a strike, but the 2-2 to Biggio was a strike called a ball.  Nelson's strike zone hasn't been perfect, but by the standards of 2022, he's been pretty decent. 

Nelson did have something to do with putting Vlad in the hole 0-1 to start his PA

And he did the same to Rutschman in the 3rd. Nelson is certainly crappy, but seems to be imposing his brand of "human element" equally.

Espinal to pinch hit?

I would have thought that the moves after the Espinal pinch-hit would have been Espinal to second, Merrifield to left and Gurriel to first.  Not a big deal, but that's what I would have done.

Probably best to have only one player out of position instead of two.

Kikuchi is set to face two lefties and then Rutschman who is much weaker from the right side. As good a spot as any for him.

Actually, Hays leads off not Odor. Maybe not.

I have not understood what the hell Schneider is doing tonight.
These decisions, in aggregate, do not fit together to me

Wish Vlad would get out of this funk. If he had done anything this game we’d be winning. Also I do agree Schneider should make up his mind. If he’s conceding then just ride the worse pitchers. If not play the solid ones. Don’t mix and match them.

Don’t mix and match them.

He has to. He's not going to get 6 innings from Merryweather and Kikuchi. He's got to use some of his good ones too.

The Jays’ approach with runners in scoring position has been pretty sketchy tonight to say the least. Feels like everyone is trying to hit a three run homer. If ever there was a lineup to pass the torch this is it.

I can almost guarantee that Manoah will hit a batter tomorrow. He hits someone almost every 8 innings and he didn't hit anyone in his last start. So he's due. That will be lively.

Bichette is a triple away from the cycle and bats 3rd in the ninth.  He hasn't done that yet in September, so why not?

He’s hit 2 in 1600 career PA, so there’s a chance. Wonder what odds Jesse Pinkman would give me.

Odor slides 3 feet past the base if he doesn't roll into the umpire's leg.

Jesus, the walks are just soooo painful. I’d rather a freaking grand slam. Make them earn it, my god.

were't Romano and Mayza more rested than Richards?

Not Mayza.

Romano yes, Mayza no.

Looks like Richards was good for about 15 pitches tonight and had nothing after that.

How would a Hernandez HBP play out?

Well, if the Jays score six tomorrow, they should be in pretty good shape. No more noncompetitive games, please.

IMO that was an extremely winnable game. Lack of execution and Jekyll/Hyde managing blew it

The managing?

Mitch White, mostly.

Shame since he was so solid through two this time and then totally lost the strike zone in the third.

Kremer has been pretty good over his last five or six starts. The Jays will need to battle him from the outset and not fritter away a bunch of plate appearances and scoring opportunities.

As Jays SP this Year:

* Kikuchi: 20gs, 4.1ip/gs, 136era-, 148fip-, 113xfip-
* White: 6gs, 4.2ip/gs, 211era-, 94fip-, 117xfip-

Yeah, they showed the Jays record for the big 4 (Manoah-Gausman-Berrios-Stripling) vs others (Kikuchi-White-Ryu-Castillo-Richards-Hatch-Banda) and it was ugly. Doing a BR check I see that 5th+ starter group has, including tonight, a 6-13 6.28 ERA over 149 IP over 37 starts 166 H 30 HR 68 BB 140 SO. The big 4? 40-25 3.45 ERA over 552 1/3 IP 534 H 60 HR 112 BB 535 SO.

Phew. What a difference eh? Losing the 5th starter in the playoffs will be a MASSIVE advantage for the Jays. Maybe White will be useful as a 2 IP reliever. Remember, that good starter group includes Berrios and his 5.23 ERA.

I don’t think White is a write off. Stripling was pretty bad the end of that first year here and a good part of the next. Now he’s pretty indispensable.

Yes, the managing.
White should have been pulled sooner. That was a high leverage situation and they brought in Merryweather. He brought Kikuchi into a close game, for the first time. Richards was left in too long.

I feel that most of Baltimore’s runs would have been prevented if the bullpen had been managed differently.

Hyde managed to win that game, and IMO the jays tried to have it both ways and it blew up in their faces

I was mystified by the approach of Schneider and Walker to bullpen management in this game. They neither competed as if this game meant a tremendous amount nor conserved resources. Neither fish nor fowl.

I was particularly surprised by the decision to remove Bass after five pitches. I guess that they'd seen enough fish. Bad jokes aside, they acted as if they had plenty left in the pen and they obviously didn't, with both Richards and Mayza needing another day really.

There were several very different ways to approach bullpen management in this game with advantages and disadvantages for each. I felt that they didn't pick any of the reasonable ones.

They neither competed as if this game meant a tremendous amount nor conserved resources.

I thought he was conserving resources, and accepting the L if it left him three arms rested for tonight. So for tonight he's got Cimber, Phelps, and Romano. He may even have Bass for an out or two. They tried to keep Mayza out of last night's game as well, just weren't able to.

Did White lose the strike zone?
It seems more like bad decisions to me.
His change up and sliders were mostly bad pitches but he threw enough fastballs to get outs.
Like surprising the hitter with a fastball down the pipe 1-2 when the hitter was sitting soft.
It didn't look like he wanted to throw a fastball to stinky. Maybe that was the plan.
Lots of non competitive pitches, especially sliders and changeups in fastball count.
You can get away with a high breaking ball on a first pitch because the hitter will probably wait for something better.

I miss Kikuchi.

The bad news is there's another double-header next Tuesday. The good news is the two off days later on. You can juggle the rotation so that you can skip the fifth starter entirely on one trip through the rotation. It would go something like this:

7 Manoah
8
9 Stripling
10 Gausman
11 Berrios
12 White
13 Manoah / Bullpen
14 Stripling
15 Gausman
16 Berrios
17 White
18 Manoah
19
20 Stripling
21 Gausman
22 Berrios
23 Manoah
24 White
25 Stripling
26 Gausman
27 Berrios
28 Manoah
29
30 Stripling
1 Gausman
2 Berrios
3 Manoah
4 White
5 Stripling

Since the trade deadline:

Rodon 6gs 34.1ip 27h 10r 8bb 43k 2.62era 2.53fip

Happ 132pa 18r 7hr 18rbi .268/.318/.529

Did White lose the strike zone? It seems more like bad decisions to me.

On the broadcast, Siddall was very unhappy about the pitch calling, but this is what you get sometimes with a very inexperienced catcher. Which Kirk is. And last night it's Kirk calling the pitches. White doesn't know how he needs to pitch against the Orioles. He's literally never seen any of them in his life, not even in spring training. He's been in the American League a few weeks, he needs the experienced catcher with him.

Since the trade deadline

In view of the fact that neither player was moved at the deadline, doesn't that tell you that they weren't anywhere close to being as available as everybody just assumed?

I’m more forgiving of the pen management last night. The resources weren’t used as I would have but the recent pen usage left them in a tight spot. The bigger problem is the refusal to option Kikutchi. He’s not usable in an important September game. They started last night with one arm tied behind their backs. Having another LH arm would also be helpful.

Kirk seemed to be getting a lot of direction from the dugout last night.  He was looking over a lot.  Never a good thing, in my mind.  But then, I have more confidence in Alejandro Kirk than in Pete Walker this year. 

That's one way to frame it. It tells me that nobody was willing to meet their teams' price tag.

In general I can't get upset at bullpen choices when the starter poops the bed. Imo it was probably decent pen management that kept us close and let us come back to a 1 run game by the 8th despite not using most of the top relievers.


The only move that really bothers me is going with an unrested Richards in the 8th when they had just got the game back to 1 run and has a number of better RP to use. With the way the bats are going the chances felt very good we would score at least another and imo that should have been treated the same way a tie or one run lead would have been.

you bring in Kikuchi to face Mullins and leave him in through Henderson

I'm not letting Kikuchi pitch to Ryan Mountcastle in a one-run game. Not in this universe. No way, no how. Kikuchi gets at most the next five batters from when he came in, but no more. If you're lucky, that gets you the last two outs in the sixth and then the seventh. But Kikuchi needed to pitch to four batters to get those last two outs.

[Kirk] was looking over a lot.

They're always looking over when there are runners on base. (Which also describes much of White's evening.) I don't think they were calling pitches from the dugout.

The only move that really bothers me is going with an unrested Richards in the 8th

And even that.... okay, we think he had Cimber and Romano available. We know he didn't have Phelps. Let's say Romano - or Cimber - sets them down in the eighth and they score - as they did - in the ninth. Now someone's got to pitch the ninth as well, right? And then you have extras! I think Schneider preferred to lose in eight innings than even risk going to extras.

Richards had enough in the tank for four batters. He got two outs, the Odor single that Springer played into a double, and that stupid little infield hit. And then he was gassed and useless.

They probably should have gone with the opener+long relief.
Kikuchi might be OK if he's got a lot of lefties to face.

I don't trust Richards if he's not rested.

I don't know what the bench emptying was about, but you don't win pennants by brawling, just ask Odor.
Better to stay focused on the game.

Baker has looked better than many of the guys the Jays picked on waivers last year.
I think Atkins values experience in relievers while in reality guys in the pen can lose their edge--velocity, control and movement--without rhyme or reason. 

Well I think it would be wise to not let Kirk catch White for right now. Let Jansen bring him up to speed.

I think it would be wise to not let Kirk catch White for right now.

Yup, when your pitcher's ERA is 3.38 with one catcher and 13.50 with the other, rocket scientists are not required.

"And even that.... okay, we think he had Cimber and Romano available. We know he didn't have Phelps. Let's say Romano - or Cimber - sets them down in the eighth and they score - as they did - in the ninth. Now someone's got to pitch the ninth as well, right? And then you have extras! I think Schneider preferred to lose in eight innings than even risk going to extras."

don't like that thinking tbh.

the 1 run game in the 8th was high leverage. that's the time for high leverage relievers. You don't put in a low leverage guy just because you think he MIGHT be needed in later high leverage situation anyways imo.

Yeah, I just think he was determined not to use those guys last night because he thinks he'll need them tonight. And he wouldn't have had them tonight.

why wouldn't he have them tonight?

Romano is one more off-day away from "needing to get some work".

Kikuchi and White seem similar in that they have good stuff and can pitch decently for an inning or two, but then lose the strike zone. Last night White would get ahead on 0-2 or 1-2 and then continually miss the strike zone, especially with sliders. I'm just wondering how Max Castillo would have done instead of being traded for Merrifield who is contributing next to nothing.

I don’t think Max is very good but he probably could give a consistent 5ip, 3er start which tbh wouldn’t be bad atm. Chance ofc to blow up but he could occasionally outperform it. But consistently mediocre has a quality of its own.

I agree completely. Castillo was probably our 5th or 6th best starter. He's now back in the rotation in KC and is continuing to limit damage, outing after outing, despite not having the best stuff. We needed 6 starters last week and 6 next week and he would have been a perfect fit on this team in September. Otto Lopez could have played Merryfield's role. Remains a strange trade... but perhaps Whit was surprise us down the stretch.

stats wise there's no real reason to doubt that Castillo is decent.

He's a late birthday 23yr old so he's at standard AA/AAA age levels this year.

* AA: 28.7k%, 11.5bb%, .257babip, 3.10era, 3.80fip, 3.90xfip
* AAA: 24.1k%, 9.0bb%, .260babip, 3.43era, 4.41fip, 4.57xfip
* MLB: 23.5k%, 5.9bb%, .218babip, 2.97era, 4.53fip, 3.41xfip


Stuffwise his fastball looks like a weakness but at 93.5 avg velo so far it has some pace to it. While both his change and slider look pretty legit.

Not a world beater by any stretch but a decent candidate to eat some innings at the back of a rotation.

I like the other two deals more but I think the Merrifield deal was a bit of insurance in case Springer was more injured than he seemed and would have to sit for the rest of the year. Thankfully that didn’t happen but it does mean Whit is not as needed.

Fish or fowl is a weird expression when you're battling the Rays and the Orioles.
I noticed that there is a sign indicating the Fowl line in left.

I went back and checked the velo on Josh Towers' fastball. 
Back in 2007-9 is 4 seamer averaged 87.6 mph. Doesn't sound right.

I wonder if Schneider's real beef with Nelson yesterday was his failure to call the second game when it started to rain heavily with the Blue Jays up by 7 runs late, which resulted in unnecessary (and stressful because of the conditions) work for Richards and Phelps.  . 

You can't really compare historical recorded velocities to current recorded velocities. The measurement tools have changed. Somewhere in the past 15 years they changed the standard gun to the one which measures from point of release versus the gun which measured velocity as it crosses the plate and the difference is typically 2-3 mph. They currently use what used to be called the "hot" gun. Inflation is all around us:)

Nat Bailey stadium was one of the last to use the slower gun. I think it was still in use until about 4-5 years ago. It was pretty funny to see visiting pitchers checking their velocities on the scoreboard and not liking what they were seeing.

MLB September MVP's by fWAR:
Bo Bichette 1.2
Aaron Judge 0.7
Cal Raleigh 0.7
Adley Rutschman 0.6

Won't mention the #1 September LVP.

If I remember correctly, it was still a close game when Schneid got ejected.

We didn't really see anything, but he was tossed because of some noise coming from the bench was Garcia was missing on close pitches.
So his real beef seems to be about being ejected.

Tyler Wells now listed as the O's starter for tonight. 

Zach Collins claimed by the Pirates.

White optioned, Pop back up.

Teoscar on paternity leave, Moreno up.

Moreno & Pop recalled; Mitch White optioned; Teo to the paternity list (maybe that's why he was so anxious last night !?!?). Will be interesting to see how Moreno is used and if that means less time for Jansen. White can still be recalled as the 29th man for the Rays doubleheader.

Tapia in RF tonight. He's been particularly poor there this year.

Just saying, I would start Biggio in right field rather than Mr. T.

Sure hope Manoa doesn’t lose his shit tonight when several Orioles poke, poke him.

one thing that came up with this series ump scorecards is that calls are evaluated in isolation
So blown calls that should have ended at bats when a hr is later hit do not have that error calculated in the score, and while still useful, I feel are fundamentally flawed and inaccurate.
Another ridiculous example in am earlier Jays game where another blown ball should have been a strikeout, but a later pitch in the at bat was deemed more impactful because a full count had higher leverage. In isolation that makes sense, but in thr context of the game it's indefensible.

I think there needs to be some leverage escalator when a blown call should have ended an at-bat, or an inning. Each nlown call for that at bat, or that inning should escalate the leverage of that first blown call. Each one should add. Runs that score on pitches that shouldn't have happened, or at bats that shouldn't have happened should also count for leverage of thr blown call that enabled that.
If you're trying to calculate the cost of blown calls, ignoring blown calls that directly lead to runs that should not have happened should absolutely be counted. But they aren't.
I get why they're calculating in isolation, but I also think I illustrated why that undermines the goals of the project. It incorrectly evaluates data that is fundamental to the scores.

Anyway it seems obvious to me. Which makes it extra frustrating.amd the trickiness of neutrality for statistical analysis. This is introducing error i stead of capturing error.

So Biggio gets removed in the 5th inning last night and sits today in favour of Bradley and Tapia against another RHP with extreme reverse splits. If Tapia really needs to play just put him in CF.

They can go with an opener/Kikuchi in one of this weekend's games @ Texas and have a Berrios-Manoah/White-Stripling-Gausman rotation for the 5 games at home vs. TB, but that would mean Berrios pitches on 6 days rest.

Sure, Biggio in RF over Tapia is an easy call. Personally I wouldn't play Tapia at all, unless all other OF options were off the table. SQ met.

I have given up on getting upset at Tapia's playing time. The organization thinks he's good despite all the evidence pointing to the opposite, and he'll end up with around 400 plate appearances on purpose. Montoyo was definitely not the issue with this team as Schneider is essentially a carbon copy of him.

A 3-pitch inning. Pretty rare.

Tapia's playing time is what happens when you drink your own Kool Aid too often. I think the same think happened with signing Kikutchi - Walker "fixed" another power lefty so he's the LHP Whisperer. It happens, the Jays aren't remotely the only ones.

I could live with the Jays taking a flyer on Kikuchi for a year. But 3 years?

Please, for the love of Raimel, cash in some runs after that gift.

But not if you have to injure yourself.

Poor Biggio can't even get into the line-up when Gurriel gets hurt.

Biggio is the 8th outfielder. His day will come!

I think you might have to go back to the expansion era Jays to find a worse OF than Merrifield, JBJ, Tapia. Hard to fathom in September of a pennant race.

But they've got deep depth.

I have no idea what they're thinking. OK. I think I've got it. Merrifield is faster than Biggio so he pinch-runs and then you can save Biggio for later!

"I think you might have to go back to the expansion era Jays to find a worse OF than Merrifield, JBJ, Tapia. Hard to fathom in September of a pennant race"

The funny thing is that they have another possibly worse OF not even playing. The inability to pick up even a league average player to play ahead of these guys at the deadline is mind boggling.

"Zach Collins claimed by the Pirates."

annoying. he's better than most of our bench.



"I think you might have to go back to the expansion era Jays to find a worse OF than Merrifield, JBJ, Tapia. Hard to fathom in September of a pennant race."

tried a few joke riffs on this but they all caught in my throat.

P.S. I'm almost certain Espinal would be a plus defensive corner OF

tried a few joke riffs on this but they all caught in my throat.

And you found yourself needlessly disparaging Alvis Woods.

The problem is both procurement of resources (Atkins) and deployment of resources (Schneider). I can't get my head around either right now.

7 pitches to Guerrero. 1 strike. He swings at 6 of them.

He really needs to get out of his own way

Hey there, no need to disparage Alvis Woods:) Woods is the yardstick by which I measure all terrible defensive OF's (God know I sat behind him enough times in the LF bleachers at the EX) - but you could have a legitimate debate about whether he was a better player than all three of tonight's OF's (in their circa 2022 forms).

I mean we probably just shoulda kept grichuk.

Actually the problem was giving Grichuk that five-year contract. Had the front office not made that unfortunate move, they wouldn’t have had to swap one substandard asset (Grichuk) for another (Tapia) this off-season. They could have used that money to acquire a player who is actually good.

or they could have decided they were rich enough not to give a flying fluck about a $10m sunk cost and just spent more to fix the issue.

Yup - that too. But since this front office doesn’t operate that way, they really should have refrained from giving him that lengthy contract (five years!).

What a fun play by Guerrero!

Something tells me the Jays are going to regret coming away with only one run from that bases loaded, none out situation in T2. It’s very irritating how they are letting Baltimore back into the WC race through lack of execution.

So easy to armchair manage. Of course the jays could have gotten a better player than Tapia if they just decided to, apparently. No issues to contend with like vaccine requirement, opposing team trade demands, scarcity of LHB on the market…let’s just pretend that this front office is incompetent and actually thinks Tapia and Kikuchi are overlooked gems.

Yeah, that’ll make everyone feel better about themselves while our best player continues to decline when it matters, oops I didn’t mean to mention that last part. I hope nobody spit out their drink. What I meant to say, of course, is that if we had a better bench player than Tapia or 6th starter than Kikuchi, then we’d be in a much better position right now…it would make all the improvement in the world to winning this league.

Talk about exhausting. Freshen up the targets, for once in your posts…

At full strength Guerrero is probably the last guy you want at the plate right now in a big spot. How is that even possible?

Alejandro!

On the positive side, so many of the key players on the club are a joy to watch.  So, the outfield is poor but Manoah is on the mound, Kirk is behind the plate and the infield is as good as ever. 

Rutschman strikes out on a ball in the 1st and walks on a strike in the 6th. The circle of life. Hakuna Matada and all that.

3 catchers on the roster is nonsense if Kirk runs for himself with 2 outs in the 7th up 4-1.

Excellent inning (and game) by Manoah. Bearing down and getting Santander and Mountcastle after the Rutschman hit was impressive. He has all the attributes you want in a starting pitcher.

Manoah better start the 8th.

He’s at 90 pitches and it’s 8-9-1.

Cimber is fresh so I would bet it’s his inning

or they could have decided they were rich enough not to give a flying fluck [sic] about a $10m sunk cost and just spent more to fix the issue.

This. Grichuck was reasonable under old finance rules, the market bottomed out for players like him soon after, and he didn't improve. But there were choices.

Grichuk would have been fine had he maintained his prior level of performance (2+ WAR per year in around 450 PA). Unfortunately he soon declined to a 0-1 WAR player and became largely untradable.

Shame Romano needs work cuz Manoah should start the 9th too.

I know that their stuff isn’t quite the same (although it’s similar) but Manoah definitely gives me Roy Halladay vibes.

I think one of the broadcasters (Tabby?) threw out a Jack Morris comp a while back.

He might be similar to Morris in personality but otherwise I don’t see that. He reminds me of Halladay in that Halladay was trying for soft contact/easy outs but sometimes Roy would need to strike everyone out and he could do that too. Plus, there’s the metronome like regularity of the quality of the outings.

Doesn't he remind you of Stieb with both the attitude and the slider?

Outside of attitude he reminds of Dave Stieb. Stieb though would stare down anyone who screwed up behind him, Manoah will encourage them and not hold it against them. But like Stieb he wants the ball for every inning of a game, like Stieb he is a bulldog out there who can go and go and go. I just hope Manoah can be here as long as possible - unlike Stieb and Halladay to spend his whole career here.

Yes the stuff is similar, but Stieb was trying to strike 27 guys out every start. There was no search for soft contact.

I can see the Halladay comp to some extent, for the reasons you mentioned (despite the different arsenal).

He’s now 14-7, 2.42. Brilliant sophomore season.

Romano, Manoah and Gausman are the clear stars on this team (arguably in that order.). They are the 3 players that are truly indispensable…so I hope I didn’t just jinx them.

Meanwhile, in a critical week of games, VG has an OPS of 325, worse than the much maligned Tapia and JBJ.

I hope Gurriel is back in a couple weeks so that he has a few games to get his timing back before the playoffs.

Otherwise we’re looking at starting JBJ.

A big similarity is how both Stieb and Manoah barely touched the minors - Stieb 19 games, 128 IP over 2 seasons (110 PA his first pro season as he still wanted to hit - in college he hit 394/477/670 his final season). Manoah 2 minor league seasons, 9 starts 25 IP - in his last amateur season he played in the Cape Cod league and threw 33 1/3 IP, more than he would in the minors! But he was no Stieb with the bat - 1 for 20 in college with 3 BB 8 SO and appropriately 1 HBP. Halladay on the other hand had 4 full minor league seasons (his 2 starts in '98 were in September after the AAA season ended) but infamously he fell apart in 2000 with a 10.64 ERA and was sent back. No sign of that from Manoah and Stieb didn't see the minors again until he was 34 on rehab.

"Otherwise we’re looking at starting JBJ."

Well, we should start Biggio in LF, not JBJ.

Starting Biggio in LF is an option, but they seem pretty averse to it. I was anticipating Teoscar moving to LF, Bradley to CF and Springer to RF.

For whatever reason, Teoscar has been pretty terrible historically in LF. I think the more likely set up with those three would be JBJ in LF, Springer in CF and Teoscari in RF. I’m not saying that’s ideal, just what they are most likely to do. I’d make Biggio the semi regular in LF but Schneider doesn’t appear to like that idea.

From ESPN. Schoenfield and Passan argue "The MLB players who graduated to stardom in 2022".
Budding Aces:

Alek Manoah

Schoenfield's case: Manoah is in his first full season in the majors but after an impressive rookie season, it's not a surprise that he has risen to this level so quickly. At 6-foot-6 and 285 pounds, you might expect Manoah to simply blow smoke past hitters, but his fastball is actually only about major league average. What this guy does is pitch -- and what he loves to do as much as any pitcher in the game is throw inside. He led the AL in hit batters in just 111 innings in 2021 and leads this year with 14. A sign of wildness? No. Call it a sign of intimidation, no small part of why he owns a 2.48 ERA. The only pitcher in Blue Jays franchise history with a lower ERA in a season: Roger Clemens.

Judge Jeff's verdict: Deeming someone an ace in his first full big league season is indeed a foolhardy endeavor. Well, by all means, call me a fool. Because Manoah is only going to get better once the Blue Jays let him pitch deeper into games, and with his elite fastballs -- he throws four- and two-seamers -- and an above-average slider and changeup, he's got the right arsenal to top their rotation.

The Orioles are now 5 back of the Jays in the loss column, and the Jays are 6 back of the Yankees. Neither team is out of their race, but chances are slim. Granted the Orioles have the extra head-to-head series with their foe, as well as 12 games remaining against BOS (7), DET (3), and WSH (2). The Red Sox also have 6 against the Yankees, so the Jays will need Bogaerts to keep raking for that new contract.

The Rangers just lost 9 in a row but they won't be a walk in the ballpark. They are 11-29 in one run games and should probably be closer to .500.

Corey Seager has put up a very similar season offensively to Bichette with better defense.

Seager 29hr 77r 72rbi
Bichette 22hr 77r 80rbi

Since May 15th, Marcus Semien leads MLB 2B in PA (469), runs (70), HRs (21), RBI (59), and stolen bases (20).

Nathaniel Lowe is having a similar year to Guerrero.

Tapia went 2 for 4. He's fine in left.

Winning 3 of 4 games against Baltimore is very good IMO.

Kudos to the poster calling Manoah our best pitcher already in the first or 2nd month of the season. I didn’t think he would be this good after adjustments to him.

I agree with you dalimon5. Looking at Stieb, Stroman and Manoah I see Stieb as a bit of a difficult teammate due to his glaring. All 3 are fierce competitors. Stroman was outspoken but also caring as he contacted prospects to give encouragement. He did that with Irv Carter. Monoah has an engaging personality. The AS game situation about wearing the mike and bantering with John Smoltz which made him very popular with all viewers. Sem Robberse has a good relationship with him. I think I read that in C's Plus baseball. Thanks Niall.

This is a very young team and I see ST as a good time for bonding. ML players and prospects. Dasan Brown spoke about how thrilled he was to make a difficult catch in ST.

Magpie please continue with the sacrifices to Jobu for the upcoming series…

I thought Nigel's post was interesting in that comps are not always about who has the most similar arsenal or even the most similar statistical profile. One can have a curveball (Doc) and another can have a slider (Manoah) but they can be similar in other respects.

In addition to his ability as a pitcher, Manoah appears to be a great teammate. Unlike Stieb, he doesn't blame or call out his teammates when they make an error. He sees it as simply another challenge that he is confident he can overcome.

Mike, I think they were referring to his fastball speed as average because that’s what it is after you take all the speeds he varies and average it out. They go on to point out that he has 4 types of fastballs so I think your analysis fits their commentary still.

I know they mean Manoah's average velocity, but in his case, it's not particularly helpful in understanding why he's so effective.  They got part of it by talking about his ability to throw inside, but he also blows it by people with high-end velocity up and away when he wants to.  Most pitchers with average velocity can't do that to the extent that he can. 

" Kudos to the poster calling Manoah our best pitcher already in the first or 2nd month of the season."

I'll modestly claim credit for saying Manoah was our ace early on in the season. I'll say modestly because I usually have one correct observation for every 5 wrong ones.( at least) I find the discussion on what makes Manoah effective fascinating. I know on the broadcast they mentioned how he is a fierce competitor and even on his bad days can seem to gut out 6 innings. At the same time, the bigger the game, the more he likes competing in it. I can see him as a key playoff performer.

For me, the biggest difference between Halladay and Manoah isn't the SL vs. CV (because, well, Monoah's SL is so big it feels like a curve sometimes) it's the FB usage. Halladay the Later largely eschewed the upper half of the zone and got soft contact through his unbelievable control of the 2 seam FB down in the zone. Manoah, as Mike says, works inside a great deal (and effectively) and also up. Manoah can get soft contact in all four quadrants. In some respects, its a better arsenal than Halladay's (no, I'm not saying Manoah's better:)).

Roy Halladay had his first good 1/2 season at age 24.  Manoah is ahead of him so far, but Doc took it to a whole other level regularly leading the league in complete games and innings pitched.  I can imagine Manoah throwing 210 innings a year and getting a few complete games a year, but the playoffs are longer and you do want him to be at his best for those. 

Halladay had 4 pitches that started the same but ended in different parts of the plate.
Manoah has a plus slider and 2 good fastballs.
The slider is good enough to throw for strike or ball inside or outside even on left handed hitters.
The shape seems to change from outing to outing.
The 2-seamer has screwball movement rather than sinking action and Manoah loves to go inside with it and doesn't care if he hits the batter.

Manoah works exceptionally well in a battery with Kirk.
I think that deflects most of the blame on Kirk when catching White.
Manoah is a predator. He'll make adjustments if a hitter has success against him.
Totally unlike some pitchers who seem afraid to throw a strike to a good hitter.

In Baltimore, left field is pitcher friendly now.
If in doubt, throw a fastball to that side of the plate.

I expect to hear people talk of Manoah as a throwback within a year. He goes 5+ EVERY start literally. Just 4 times last year he went less - last one was August 17th - pulled for a pinch hitter after a really bad 3rd inning (6 runs allowed). So that is 8 starts to finish 2021 plus 27 this year = 35 straight 5+ IP games for him. Doubt you'd find many who have done that this year. Very different from the old days. In Roy Halladay's final Jays season he had 1 start sub 5 IP (3 IP on June 12 - left due to an injury took 17 days to start again but had 32 starts that season anyways. The next year in Philly he had 33 starts, all 5 2/3+ IP, plus 3 playoff starts including that no hitter all 6+ IP.

On the radio they were comparing Manoah to CC Sabathia. CC was a pro at 17, just 48 games in the minors before getting his shot at age 20, 2nd for ROY. All-Star at 22, first got Cy Young votes at 26, played until 38 with 251 wins and a 116 ERA+. 1 WS ring over 10 playoff seasons - 26 games, 130 IP 4.28 ERA 10-7 record. If Manoah has that career he'll have done well, but who knows what his future holds? I'm hoping for even better.

A scoreless/hitless inning for Nate Pearson in Buffalo.
Hit 99, curve had great movement to it.
Big Nate was popping the mitt today.

— Future Blue Jays (@FutureBlueJays) September 8, 2022

I approved of the Grichuk for Tapia trade.

Don't feel bad. As I recall, pretty well everybody approved of that trade. I think it was mostly just an expression of glee at seeing the last of Grichuk, but there you are.

This is getting seriously unwieldy - 350 plus comments? Should I put up the Texas thread a day early?

How about a random (very short) off-day thread?  Maybe you can ask a question- name 3 players 24 and under who will be Hall of Famers.  There might be one or two consensus picks and then you could do a poll. 

Forget it, you already have one.  D'oh!

Oh, I can certainly think of at least one person who was against the Grichuk-Tapia trade...and that was coming from one of the few voices that didn't like Grichuk's extension either. Everything that has played out with Tapia was entirely predictable.

I didn't hate it when I thought we were saving salary in the trade.

Grichuk’s contract extension was more damaging than the Tapia trade. The trade merely added insult to injury.

$10m is chump change even for a bench player. It should not have effected our decision making whatsoever.

I didn't hate it when I thought we were saving salary in the trade.
This - getting a cheap pinch-runner / LHB for 1 season seemed to make some sense. If he was particularly bad, he could have just been DFAd. And we could re-invest the saved Grichuk money to sign a better outfielder.

Then again (looks at Bisons roster), I didn't realize how bare the OF cupboard is in the minors, and that we basically have no one in the minors who is a viable OF prospect?

It seems like our top-30 is basically pitchers and infielders.

"This is getting seriously unwieldy - 350 plus comments? Should I put up the Texas thread a day early?"

Well, the Jays just took 3 of 4 from a division rival that's trying to catch them in the playoff chase. Of course posters are going to complain about how bad they are.

They need to ask Arizona - MLB Trade Rumors has an article on their surplus and how they figure the Diamondbacks will use it to improve their pitching. Currently on their ML roster is Daulton Varsho (25 114 OPS+), Alek Thomas (22 88 OPS+), Jake McCarthy (24 125 OPS+), and Corbin Carroll (21 121 OPS+ in just 8 games). They also have a stack of CF prospects in the minors so it isn't like they will run out anytime soon.

You can see why I've been beating the idea of Arizona/Jays doing a deal. Their everyday catcher has an 83 OPS+ at age 27, backup a 32, 2nd backup a 61, one of the OF was catching but the manager has said that is over as they don't want him catching anymore. I figure if they want to deal one of the non-star level we'd use Jansen, star level requires Kirk or Moreno but I can't see Kirk being dealt now. This will be a good storyline to follow this winter. They might want Pearson as they need a closer and I figure Pearson or Merryweather could be that - send both as part of a deal (both out of options and the Jays need a solid pen from day one).

UO, it’s $10m (Grichuk/Tapia) plus $20m (Ryu) plus $12m (Kikuchi).

So, around 1/4 of payroll is going to non-producing assets (sub-zero WAR). That’s the big-picture problem.

It seems to be devilishly hard to develop a left-handed centerfielder with some on-base skills to be a 4th outfielder. The Blue Jays have needed one of those for over a decade.

Maybe it's an oxymoron. As in if you're a lefty bat with some on-base skills and can play a competent centre field... you're a starter and not a 4th outfielder.

Maybe,Jonny. The club has given Adrian Pinto some reps in CF, so maybe he will end up doing that.

Agreed greenfrog about a lot of $ spent on unproductive players. I am never surprised when players get injured or have poor years. I actually expect this.

Arizona OFs are mainly inexperienced except Varsho who is hitting well. Corbin Carroll has a bright future and could be a possible star. McCarthy seems fine, good speed. A Thomas also seems good. The years of control is a good thing too. I don't know how much the Jays value experience now that we are no longer rebuilding.