When an irresistible force collides with an immovable object, it's a sight to see.
This is not that.
This is the other thing. The Blue Jays arrive in the Big Apple, trying to hold their heads high, but knowing the world is saying "these guys have played like crap for the last two weeks." The waiting Yankees reply "Hold my beer. We've played like crap for the last two months."
Around Da Box over these last couple of weeks, I have heard expressions of... concern? Disppointment? Even a little anger? You may heard them as well. You may even have let such sentiments escape your own lips. Well, multiply that by about ten million times and you might begin, just a little, to approximate the mood of the New York fanbase. Theirs, you must remember, is a group with a sense of entitlement far beyond any possible measurement; a conviction that winning is not just the main thing, not just the only thing, not just the morally correct thing; rather that anything other than winning is an anathema*, an obscenity, nothing less than a gross violation of the laws of God and Man, of Space and Time.
And winning means nothing - nothing whatsoever - except a World Series victory. Nothing else will do. Everything else is a failure, everyone else is a loser.
Well, who's going to be Pitching?
Thu 18 Aug - Berrios (8-5, 5.61) vs Montas (4-9, 3.59)
Fri 19 Aug - Gausman (8-9, 3.16) vs Taillon (11-3, 3.95)
Sat 20 Aug - White (1-3, 3.72) vs Cole (9-5, 3.30)
This is not that.
This is the other thing. The Blue Jays arrive in the Big Apple, trying to hold their heads high, but knowing the world is saying "these guys have played like crap for the last two weeks." The waiting Yankees reply "Hold my beer. We've played like crap for the last two months."
Around Da Box over these last couple of weeks, I have heard expressions of... concern? Disppointment? Even a little anger? You may heard them as well. You may even have let such sentiments escape your own lips. Well, multiply that by about ten million times and you might begin, just a little, to approximate the mood of the New York fanbase. Theirs, you must remember, is a group with a sense of entitlement far beyond any possible measurement; a conviction that winning is not just the main thing, not just the only thing, not just the morally correct thing; rather that anything other than winning is an anathema*, an obscenity, nothing less than a gross violation of the laws of God and Man, of Space and Time.
And winning means nothing - nothing whatsoever - except a World Series victory. Nothing else will do. Everything else is a failure, everyone else is a loser.
So they're going to be in a mood this weekend. They've been howling all season long, like wolves deep into the night, that Josh Donaldson should be tossed into a small boat and cast out to sea. Last night's walk off grand slam, in the bottom of the ninth, with the team down by three runs - seriously, that's what he did - did that establish him as a True Yankee? Has that earned him his pinstripes? Are you kidding? It'll have bought him a little more rope, that's all. And then there's Frankie Montas, who has yet to have his True Yankee moment. The natives are already muttering that Cashman should have paid the price, any price, whatever the price, for Luis Castillo (who beat the Yankees in his first start for Seattle, and shut them out for eight innings in his second one.) Maybe Montas will have his moment on Thursday. (Let's hope not.) Maybe he won't, not then, not ever. Not everyone can play here. It's a different kind of city, a different kind of team, and a different kind of fan base. Other team's fans have Hopes and Dreams. This team's fans have Demands and Expectations. It's not an easy place to play. Some take to it like ducks to water. Some simply can't cope.
But what's happened to this team, anyway? The Yankees came out of June with a pretty nifty 56-21 record. They then won 5 of their next 7 to push their record to 61-23, and stretch their lead atop the division to 15 games. And since that high water mark, which came back on July 8, they have lost 22 of 34 games. That's .353 ball, that's the level of a 57-105 team. What on earth happened?
Did they stop hitting? Let's have a look. Since July 1:
NAME GP AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB BAVG OBP SLG OPS
Aaron Judge 39 140 36 45 9 0 17 42 103 32 45 7 .321 .448 .750 1.198
Matt Carpenter 29 92 17 30 8 0 9 24 65 11 23 0 .326 .398 .707 1.105
DJ LeMahieu 37 144 30 45 5 0 5 12 64 26 22 2 .313 .418 .451 .869
Kyle Higashioka 16 43 6 12 1 0 3 8 22 4 11 0 .279 .340 .512 .852
Anthony Rizzo 40 108 21 23 8 0 7 17 48 14 26 0 .213 .303 .481 .785
Jose Trevino 35 109 11 30 5 0 4 12 44 2 23 1 .275 .288 .431 .719
Josh Donaldson 38 137 18 30 8 0 6 25 52 10 46 1 .219 .272 .416 .688
Gleyber Torres 37 156 20 39 8 0 4 17 54 9 40 1 .250 .291 .385 .676
Aaron Hicks 36 112 17 24 3 1 3 14 38 21 27 2 .214 .338 .330 .669
Andrew Benintendi 19 61 9 13 6 1 0 5 19 11 16 3 .213 .333 .328 .661
Giancarlo Stanton 17 64 10 10 1 0 5 9 26 5 23 0 .156 .217 .406 .624
Isiah Kiner-Falefa 39 139 13 36 5 0 1 18 44 7 18 4 .259 .295 .317 .611
Tim Locastro 11 21 2 3 0 0 1 2 6 0 2 3 .143 .143 .286 .429
Miguel Andujar 7 26 3 5 0 0 0 2 5 1 9 1 .192 .222 .192 .415
Marwin Gonzalez 19 31 1 2 0 0 0 2 2 4 11 2 .065 .171 .065 .236
Oswaldo Cabrera 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 0 .000 .000 .000 .000
Estevan Florial 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 .000 .000 .000 .000
Joey Gallo* 19 45 8 6 0 1 3 6 17 11 21 1 .133 .304 .356 .659
* Plays for someone else now
That looks adequate - after all, they get to write "Aaron Judge" in the lineup every day. Lucky them. I mean, my goodness, kids. Judge apparently just noticed that he wasn't leading the team in stealing bases and has since made it his mission to seize that one as well, from Kiner-Falefa, before the year is out. I'm running out of things to say about his season. He is Ryan-Mountcastle-against-Toronto all the time. He is a mighty, mighty man. He has activated god-mode. He has become Death, the Destroyer of Worlds. Look on, you puny mortals, and tremble.
Anyway, the Yankees - who still lead the league in scoring runs - averaged 4.99 runs per game (384 runs in 77 games) in the first three months of the season, when they were abusing the entire American League. And since the first of July, they have averaged - wait for it - a ridiculous 5.39 runs per game (221 runs in 41 games). Scoring runs does not appear to be their problem.
Kind of makes you think their problems stem from preventing the other guys scoring runs on them. And yup - over the first three months, they allowed just 3.04 runs (234 in 77) per game. But since the beginning of July, it's been 4.27 (175 in 41) per game, which is what they call a significant increase. Who might be responsible? Let's have a look at that.
NAME GP GS QS W L SV HLD IP H ER HR BB K K/9 WHIP ERA
Gerrit Cole 9 9 6 3 3 0 0 57 48 24 9 12 73 11.5 9.5 3.79
Nestor Cortes 8 8 5 3 1 0 0 46 34 16 5 10 43 8.4 8.6 3.13
Jameson Taillon 8 8 4 2 2 0 0 43.2 34 25 11 13 39 8.0 9.7 5.15
Domingo German 6 6 1 1 2 0 0 28.1 31 14 4 9 23 7.3 12.7 4.45
Frankie Montas 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 8 10 8 1 5 6 6.8 16.9 9.00
Luis Severino 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 8 8 4 3 2 4 4.5 11.3 4.50
Wandy Peralta 18 0 0 0 2 0 1 17.2 15 6 1 6 16 8.2 10.7 3.06
Aroldis Chapman 18 0 0 2 1 0 1 16.1 8 9 2 10 20 11.0 9.9 4.96
Albert Abreu 16 0 0 1 2 0 1 18.2 20 6 1 3 19 9.2 11.1 2.89
Clay Holmes 14 0 0 1 3 3 0 12.1 12 11 1 11 13 9.5 16.8 8.03
Jonathan Loaisiga 13 0 0 0 1 0 0 10.1 11 5 0 4 6 5.2 13.1 4.35
Lucas Luetge 11 0 0 1 2 1 0 16.2 16 4 2 5 19 10.3 11.3 2.16
Lou Trivino 9 0 0 0 1 0 0 5.2 6 1 0 4 5 7.9 15.9 1.59
Ron Marinaccio 8 0 0 0 0 0 1 10 3 1 1 4 11 9.9 6.3 0.90
Scott Effross 7 0 0 0 0 1 2 7.1 6 4 1 2 7 8.6 9.8 4.91
Clarke Schmidt 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 6 4 0 0 3 8 12.0 10.5 0.00
Ryan Weber 2 0 0 0 0 1 0 4 1 0 0 1 1 2.3 4.5 0.00
Miguel Castro 2 0 0 1 0 0 0 1.1 3 2 0 1 3 20.3 27.0 13.50
Shane Greene 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 1 1 1 9.0 18.0 18.00
Jordan Montgomery* 6 6 2 0 2 0 0 29.1 30 16 6 9 33 10.1 12.0 4.91
Michael King** 8 0 0 1 2 0 4 9.1 7 2 0 3 10 9.6 9.6 1.93
JP Sears* 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 9.1 6 5 1 1 7 6.8 6.8 4.82
* Plays for someone else now
** Out for the season
Well, Taillon certainly hasn't been all that great lately and none of the relievers have exactly distinguished themselves. But even so, this doesn't seem to add up, does it? Let's review. For three months, the Yankees scored more runs than everybody else in the league while allowing fewer runs than everybody else in the league. This is a pretty reliable route to success. It's also being followed by the Los Angeles Dodgers, who have enlarged on it somewhat by scoring more and allowing less than every other team in the majors. And for three months, the Yankees blew away the rest of the AL.
Since July 1, they've continued to score more runs than everybody else in the league. They've been allowing the opposition to score something close to an average amount - the league average is 4.3 runs per game, the Yankees have allowed 4.24 these last six weeks. But this has often been a route to success as well. It's certainly not as reliable as the road they had taken before. But if you score more runs than everyone else, you can get away with allowing just a little bit better than the league average. The Blue Jays did it in 2015 (and in 1993.) But for the 2022 Yankees, scoring 221 and allowing 175 has resulted in a 17-24 stretch, which seems a little counter-intuitive. Well, since July 1 they have gone 5-11 in one-run games, the Great Equalizer (they had gone 17-7 over the first three months.) And they have been known to pile on the runs long after there's any real need to kick the dead horse any longer - they beat Pittsburgh by 16 runs and posted consecutive victories over the Red Sox by margins of 13 runs and 11 runs (they must have enjoyed that!) They've been carrying on like that all season, of course - earlier on, they beat the Cubs by 18, the Tigers by 13, and the Royals by 10.
Tis a puzzlement!
The Yankees do not have a young team - they have the oldest gang of hitters in the AL, in fact - and as sure as eggs is eggs, old players will get hurt. Giancarlo Stanton is an enormous 32 year old human with an extensive history of visiting the Disabled List. He's been back for another call since late July, with tendinitis in his left Achilles. The Bombers hope he can begin a rehab assignment this weekend. D.J. LeMahieu has a better health history than Stanton, but he's 33 years old, and this is when it begins to happen. He has been day-to-day all week with a sore toe. Harrison Bader, acquired at the deadline to improve their outfield defense, was never expected to play until September.
And then there's Matt Carpenter. As I've mentioned many times, the Yankees have a longstanding arrangement with the Prince of Darkness. It was surely only through the intercession of the Father of Lies that they were able to have the Enormous Fork protruding from Matt Carpenter's back surgically removed. Carpenter spent the next couple of months strutting around the Bronx like he was Babe Ruth or something, with an OPS of 1.138, with 15 HRs in 47 games. But these deals always have an expiry date, and Carpenter's expired ten days ago when he fouled a pitch off his foot and broke one of those old bones.We won't be seeing him anytime soon.
And that's just the hitters. The Yankees bullpen has resembled a MASH unit for some time now. Clay Holmes, who had supplanted Aroldis Chapman as the closer, has been having back issues for about a month now. Holmes allowed just 2 runs - that's two - in his first 38 appearances. In his 11 outings since, he's allowed 11 runs, posted a 10.24 ERA, and finally gone on the IL. Where he has lots of company. Zack Britton's been there all season, of course. Chad Green blew out his elbow in May and had Tommy John surgery. Michael King broke his elbow in July, has since had surgery, and will be back next year. Miguel Castro's shoulder began bothering him around the same time. The rotation is down a man as well, with Luis Severino out with a lat strain. The egregious Domingo German has been the fifth starter.
Well, enough of those guys. I think I'd like to revisit, reconsider, and relitigate an idea I expressed in the Baltimore thread. You will recollect that I suggested Atkins was following the same strategy at the deadline that Anthopoulos followed in 2014 (I have long found it a prudent policy that if you bring up anything debatable that Atkins does, you had best have handy an instance of Anthopoulos doing the exact same thing.) Having spent these last few days thinking about it and talking about it with you lot - I don't think that's quite true. In 2014, Anthopoulos said "pass" - and rightly so. It wasn't their year, it wasn't going to be their year. I don't think Atkins is anywhere near as down on this year's team - he fired his manager, after all, which does suggest he had expectations that weren't being met, that he thought could be met. He made some upgrades to an area that had been a problem. But now I'm thinking that while he likes this team more than Anthopoulos liked the 2014 team - Atkins doesn't like this team and the year they're having enough to go any further than that, to invest any more on it than he did. (Or maybe it's just that Luis Castillo was the only big trade target that really made sense to him, and the Jays simply didn't match up well as a trading partner for the Reds. The Jays best trading piece is a catcher, which is not what the Reds need.)
Well, who's going to be Pitching?
Thu 18 Aug - Berrios (8-5, 5.61) vs Montas (4-9, 3.59)
Fri 19 Aug - Gausman (8-9, 3.16) vs Taillon (11-3, 3.95)
Sat 20 Aug - White (1-3, 3.72) vs Cole (9-5, 3.30)
Sun 21 Aug - Manoah (12-6, 2.71) vs Cortes (9-4, 2.74)
* I am using "anathema" in its technical sense, as a formal curse by a council of the Church. Excommunication, banishment, damnation - these are the kinds of things Yankees fans typically call for when they are displeased.
