Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine Batter's Box Interactive Magazine
Buffalo, New Hampshire, Vancouver and Dunedin all found the win column Tuesday. The Complex League teams did not.

Buffalo 5 Lehigh Valley 2

The Herd got the jump on the Phillies affiliate with a two-run first thanks to a Zack Collins sacrifice fly and a Vinny Capra RBI double. They regained the lead for good in the eighth when Collins doubled home a pair and came home on a Nathan Lukes triple. Lukes was hit by a pitch. He is now hitting .301 with an .803 OPS. Gabriel Moreno had a two-hit night but was caught stealing for the first time this season. The first six hitters in the Bisons order had a hit and the other three had a walk.

Thomas Hatch threw five shutout frames before giving up a two-run home run in the sixth. That was among the five hits and two walks he allowed while punching out four. Julian Merryweather got the win with two perfect innings and two inning-ending strikeouts. Matt Gage got the save with a game-ending punchout.


New Hampshire 5 Hartford 1

Two two-run homers by Orelvis Martinez in the first and sixth innings and a Sebastian Espino dinger in the ninth boosted the Fisher Cats to victory over the Rockies affiliate. Martinez was on base three times by taking one for the team. Espino and Davis Schneider joined Martinez in the two-hit with Schneider getting a double. John Aiello and Cam Eden singled. Addison Barger and Phil Clarke walked with Clarke swiping a bag, joining Espino as a member of the stolen base club.

Adam Kloffenstein scattered two hits, three walks and a plunk over five scoreless to get his first Double-A win. He struck out four and picked up seven outs on the ground. Jake Elliott allowed an unearned run over three innings and Jimmy Burnette wrapped things up with a scoreless ninth.


Vancouver 12 Everett 8

The C's had an 8-1 9-1 lead at one point but the Mariners affiliate closed to within 9-8 before adding late insurance for a much-needed win in the Northwest League's version of Fenway Park, Funko Field. Damiano Palmegiani brought in the first two runs with a fielder's choice and a single in the first and three innings before scoring on a Rainer Nuñez home run, his first in High-A. P.K. Morris homered in the fourth and fifth innings with RBI singles from Alex De Jesus, Palmegiani and Gabby Martinez tacked on RBI singles in between. A Dasan Brown double, a throwing error and a De Jesus base hit scored three Vancouver runs in the ninth. De Jesus, Morris, Nuñez and Miguel Hiraldo all had two hits with De Jesus and Morris drawn a walk. Brown was on base five times with a double, three walks and an HBP along with four runs scored and a stolen base. Andrés Sosa had a single to give eight of the nine hitters a hit for the C's.

Abdiel Mendoza gave up a homer and two runs overall over 4-1/3 innings on six hits and a walk while striking out two. Matt Svanson stranded a runner for Mendoza before surrendering four runs in 1-1/3 innings but got the win. Troy Watson did not strand any of the three Svanson runners he inherited before getting his two outs. T.J. Brock stranded a runner for Watson, struck out three but was charged with two runs. Connor Cooke stranded the bases loaded and struck out three two in his 1-2/3 innings for the save.

Dunedin 8 Jupiter 5

The D-Jays roared back from a 5-0 deficit with four-run innings in the fifth and sixth to down the Marlins affiliate. Alan Roden clubbed his first professional homer with a three-run shot before Estiven Machado knocked home a run. Cade Doughty completed the comeback with a grand slam. Roden took a couple for the team to get on base three times. Machado and Dylan Rock were on base twice with a hit and a walk with Rock getting a double and Machado stealing a base. Michael Turconi and Devonte Brown also recorded a '1' in the hit column with Brown getting plunked. Peyton Williams and Victor Mesia drew a walk. Josh Kasevich was 0-for-5 but scored a run.

Irv Carter coughed up four runs on five hits and two walks in his Florida State League debut. He struck out three and got five outs on the ground. Harry Rutkowski gave up the other run over two innings but struck out three. Ryan Chasse walked one but struck out the side in the seventh to get the win. Devereuax Harrison also walked one and whiffed three but did so over two innings to get the hold. He faced the minimum by erasing a leadoff walk in the seventh with a double play and struck out the side in the eighth. Jiorgemy Casimiri worked a 1-2-3 ninth for the save.


FCL Phillies 5 FCL Blue Jays 3

The F-Jays had a 2-1 lead but the Phillies scored three runs over the last two innings for the comeback win. Sac flies by J.C. Masson and Juan Pizzaro and a balk provided the scoring for the Jays. Manuel Beltre and Endri Garcia had two hits apiece with Garcia picking up a double. Tucker Toman drew a walk.

José DeLeón was the opener and struck out two in a flawless first inning. Lefties Johan Simon surrendered a run over four innings and Marc Civit coughed up a run over three frames, getting charged with a blown save. Edgar Castro also blew a save opportunity and took the loss after yielding three runs over two innings.


DSL Orioles 6 DSL Blue Jays 5 (11 Innings)

Victor Arias tripled home a run in the third inning and Jonathan Bautista hit a two-run homer as the Dom-Jays held a 4-1 lead at one point in the early going. Jean Joseph and Omar Romero had two-hit efforts.

Daniel Guerra gave up a run over four innings on three hits and two walks and recorded five strikeouts. Francisco Lucumi allowed four runs in the fifth but they were all unearned. Jorge Guerra tossed three frames of one-hit ball with three K's. Ramon Suarez pitched 2-1/3 innings and took the loss.


*** 3 Stars!!! ***

3. Dasan Brown, Vancouver

2. P.K. Morris, Vancouver

1. Orelvis Martinez, New Hampshire
Martinez & Morris Mash | 54 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 11:10 AM EDT (#420069) #
Homers aren't my favorite measure of power but they are still a measure. This might help put Orelvis' still-high ratings as a prospect in perspective so those who are scared off by the weak parts of his current batting line. Never forgetting that he's a good 2 years young for the level:

.@FisherCats single-season home run record

Chip Cannon - 27 (2006, 524 plate appearances)
Eric Thames - 27 (2010, 560 plate appearances)
ORELVIS MARTINEZ - 27 (2022, 391 plate appearances) https://t.co/kfn96upXvW

— David Korzeniowski (@d_korz83) August 17, 2022
uglyone - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 11:34 AM EDT (#420073) #
video here of his 2nd homerun - 2nd deck opposite field power:

https://twitter.com/MLBPipeline/status/1559711172567384068?s=20&t=mnhPk1jWsz2Q02RU36p_XA
lexomatic - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#420074) #
Chip cannon 24, 51-158 bb/k 248/335/476 53xbh 810ops 115ops+ thames 23 , 50-121 288/370/526 58 xbh 896 ops 122ops+
O Martinez 20, 24-117 212/279/483 42xbh 762 ops 105ops+

Of course the youngest can play SS and has time. But... the offense as a whole is less developed. But making improvements could unprocessed the power even more.

The ops+ is rough calculations because fabgraphs mobile is not very functional
uglyone - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 12:02 PM EDT (#420076) #
yeah 3-4 years difference makes comparing their overall lines not very important.

but him showing better power at age 20 than those 2 pure-power prospects did when much older is very impressive.

but it's not just comparing him to those 2 guys - it's comparing him to everyone who's ever played for the Fisher Cats, ever.
Ducey - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#420080) #
Historical comparisons based on rate numbers are a little problematic, as if you are good, you don't stick around AA very long unless you are quite young.

For example Orelvis is tied for homers in the Eastern league with a guy who is a 28 yr old first baseman, and likely isn't getting promoted any time soon, if ever.

uglyone - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#420081) #
which is why Orelvis' low PA totals and very young age make it all the more impressive.

like i said, there are better ways to measure power, which show that his power is legit special, but some people might respond more to the fact that he just set the Fisher Cats franchise HR record in only 391pa at age 20.
lexomatic - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 12:57 PM EDT (#420082) #
which is why Orelvis' low PA totals and very young age make it all the more impressive.

like i said, there are better ways to measure power, which show that his power is legit special, but some people might respond more to the fact that he just set the Fisher Cats franchise HR record in only 391pa at age 20.
His whole line however shows the major contact flaws that may prevent him from showing that power in MLB. Comparing him with sluggers with low defensive value who are supposed to hit for power, reinforces his, which is why I showed it . Whether you want to dismiss it or not, you know someone's going to comment about you cherry picking stats to prove your point. And for someone not looking at ML stats a lot, it gives a picture of a guy who made it to MLB and had a career vs one who didn't and puts perspective. Neither of us is saying anything different, it's league context.
I didn't care about the entire history of Jays/Fisher cats franchise. Only the hitters he tied for the record.

Mike Green - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#420085) #
Martinez does have power, but what he does is hit a lot of fly balls and some of them leave the yard.  He's going to hit more home runs than Carlos Delgado did at age 20, but the difference in power between the two is canyon-wide.  Delgado would hit bolts with a flatter swing path, and you knew that the power would translate.  Martinez is a whole other kettle of fish, and you can see it both by watching and in the stat line.  He was a more interesting prospect in Dunedin last year, and ought to have played 2022 in Vancouver for the whole year. 

That home run from Martinez in the second deck to the opposite field looked impressive, but you do have to realize that it's 308 to right-field and 350 to right centre in that park. 

Dasan Brown is coming along nicely, holding his own in Vancouver a month shy of his 21st birthday with a .357 OBP, some pop and an 8/1 SB/CS.  He should probably start 2023 in Vancouver, but with a shot at double A early on.  Do any Vancoverites have reports on his defence? 


uglyone - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#420086) #
I hardly think a tweet showing he just set the franchise record for NH at age 20 in only 391pa is "cherry picking", especially since I've been through his ISO and EV numerous times before.

And I'm not sure why you think him showing better power than much older pure power/dh prospects makes him look worse, instead of better.
uglyone - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#420087) #
In case you forgot the exit velocity parts of the discussion:

"BA on Orelvis Martinez “The Blue Jays infielder hits the ball hard at just 19 years old. Martinez’s max exit velocity was greater than 110 mph with a 90th percentile exit velocity in the 106 mph range.This plus-plus raw power really began to translate into in-game power”
10:27 AM · Dec 3, 2021"


That's not 90th percentile for 19 year olds, that's 90th percentile period.
Nigel - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#420088) #
I don't know whether his power is transferable at higher levels, but I don't see a future for him without some improvement in strike zone control. At Dunedin and lower, his high k% was offset, to some extent, by his bb%. That's gone since he left Dunedin.
85bluejay - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#420092) #
I can't get excited about Martinez until his strike zone judgement improves - have seen too many prospects with his analytics fail. Hope the Jays kepp him at AA until he improves.
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 01:48 PM EDT (#420094) #
The numbers were quite different for Martinez in low A ball and prior, and it wasn't only W/K.  He had a much more even distribution of line drives/ground balls/fly balls. 

Have we seen exit velocities for 2022?  I'll bet that they are down from last year. 
lexomatic - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 03:10 PM EDT (#420105) #
<br>
And I'm not sure why you think him showing better power than much older pure power/dh prospects makes him look worse, instead of better.


I honestly have no idea why you would think I was saying that. I don't think he's worse. I think he's very very flawed.
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 05:16 PM EDT (#420137) #
I think there's a good argument to be made that the Jays have over-promoted Orelvis, and he's moved to an all-or-nothing approach because he can make it mostly work at the AA level, even though it's detrimental to his long-term development.

The Jays probably just have to live with it, send him to the AFL, let him repeat AA next year and hope he can improve his plate discipline/contact with experience & application.
Gerry - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#420160) #
Jays assigned Yoshi Tsutsugo to Buffalo. To make room they released Nick Podkul.

Adrian Hernandez and Jackson Rees rejoined the Bisons.

Spifficus - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 10:28 PM EDT (#420161) #
Orelvis is a batch of cookies the way your grandmother used to make; they could be great if you can wait for them to bake, but eat that dough raw and you're getting salmonella.
Gerry - Wednesday, August 17 2022 @ 10:39 PM EDT (#420162) #
That's Gold, Jerry, Gold!

Read all about Ryan Gold tomorrow in the update.
John Northey - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 12:06 AM EDT (#420164) #
Hunting for minor league exit velocity but it all seems to be behind pay walls at sites I don't pay for.  Sigh.  2022 Minor League Batted Ball Stats - RotoWire  appears to have it but at $5.99 a month (US I'm sure) I don't feel the need to subscribe.

However for ML exit velocity Vlad is still elite with192 times hitting the ball 95+ MPH, #1 in MLB (3 ahead of Abreu, 10 more than Judge).
bpoz - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 08:16 AM EDT (#420171) #
A new top 30 Jays prospect list has been published.

the 1st 4 2022 draftees are in the top 11. the 5th selection Alan Roden (round 3) is #29. Only top pick B Barriera has not played yet. The other 4 are hitters with a chance to have 100+ ABs this season. This is a decent sample size for me to make an evaluation.

uglyone - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:02 AM EDT (#420176) #
Orelvis last 20gms:

86pa, 9.3bb%, 30.2k%, .262babip, .257avg, .378iso, 152wrc+


Shoeless Joe - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#420177) #
The k% is just too high for me. I’m not convinced he is going to become a regular in the big leagues.
85bluejay - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:20 AM EDT (#420178) #
Orelvis has time on his side - Addison Barger lowered his K% this season while moving up the system - Jays should return Martinez to AA until he improves his strike zone judgement.
uglyone - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#420179) #
He's 20 in AA.
92-93 - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:26 AM EDT (#420180) #
This Martinez kid is 20, in AA, plays SS, and has 27 HR?! Sounds like a tremendous prospect.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#420181) #
It's nice that Orelvis has taken a few walks.  Baby steps, so to speak.  They need to start him off in double A again in 2023.

Barger is settling in to a somewhat more normal line in double A (171 wRC+), but his BABIP is .464 after being .370 in Vancouver.  Obviously that can't continue.  But there are nice signs all the way around.  He's cut his K rate and maintained his power and walk rate while moving up developmental levels.  He's also done all of this while hitting more balls the opposite way.  From the youtube video of him in New Hampshire, it looks like he has an advanced approach and will work the count.  There is not much swing and miss in his game.  I'd love to see exit velocities for him.  Any reports on his defence from Vancouverites?


uglyone - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:33 AM EDT (#420182) #
George Springer had a 30+ K% in AA.....at ages 22-23.

After a 26k% in A+ at 22.
bpoz - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:43 AM EDT (#420183) #
I have a lot of faith in Orelvis. Hope he can get 35 Hr this year.
John Northey - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:47 AM EDT (#420184) #
A fun video of Moreno power
Mike Green - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#420185) #
Yes.  You can do it like Springer, with a 30% K rate in double A, but he had a 13% walk rate and hit .297 with a .390 BABIP.   How did he do that?  Well, his fly ball rate was 40%, line drive rate 20% and his HR/FB rate was 28%.  Hitting the ball very hard and not hitting everything in the air.  He was being selective and not afraid to go deep in the count. 

Martinez could do something like that.  He was like a lower case version of Springer in low A ball last year.  But he has to learn to hit the ball hard consistently.  He didn't do that in high A ball, and they advanced him to double A anyways.  Bad move, but there's plenty of opportunity for them to slow down and get there with him. 
uglyone - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 11:05 AM EDT (#420186) #
Springer was 3yrs older!
Mike Green - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#420187) #
Moreno is the polar opposite of Martinez right now.  After his injury, he flattened out his swing considerably.  You could see it when he was here.  He has ended up with ground ball rates in excess of 50%.  It looks to have been an adaptation to a loss of power- his HR/FB rate was way off.  But on the evidence of the swing in that video, I think it might be time to unflatten the swing a bit.  I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him come out in spring training 2023 like gangbusters, and win the job outright- with Kirk settling into the second catcher/DH role. 
uglyone - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#420189) #
"But he has to learn to hit the ball hard consistently. He didn't do that in high A ball, "

You keep claiming this despite him having super elite ISO and EV.

I think your claim is based on reading flyball/linedrive rates, which seems to be a much weaker and indirect way to try and judge power.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#420190) #
Like I said, Martinez can do it.  But the usual pattern is for players to uppercut less when they are younger, and to learn how to do it judiciously as they get older.  From a developmental perspective, you want your young players to be able to make good hard contact and not worry about whether the ball leaves the yard.  It's better if the bat remains in the zone longer. 
Mike Green - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 11:14 AM EDT (#420192) #
The super-elite EV doesn't mesh with the HR/FB rates in high A  and double A.  Shall we wait for the 2022 data, UO, or maybe you have access to it? 
bpoz - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#420194) #
There is a lot we don't know. Like Zulueta last pitched Aug 2 and is now injured. I don't know how accurate the the media was in saying he was going to join the Jay's pen after the trade deadline. I liked the video of him pitching "babyjays". He threw 4 types of pitches and they were strikes.

Groshans is doing well for AAA Miami. 310 Avg, bb/k 6/8. Still no power. 5 doubles in 42 ABs. I believe he has a minor injury. But who knows. Moreno also has hand injury/soreness so his power is down.

uglyone - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#420203) #
"The super-elite EV doesn't mesh with the HR/FB rates in high A and double A. Shall we wait for the 2022 data, UO, or maybe you have access to it?"

I don't really get the argument tbh - his HR/FB rate is better than Vladdy's was back then, even though Orelvis has a much high IFFB%.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#420205) #
I don't really get the argument tbh - his HR/FB rate is better than Vladdy's was back then

We know that Vladdy's exit velocities were indeed elite and we saw enough of them to know that the numbers weren't lying.  I'm not exactly sure why more of Vladdy's fly-balls didn't leave the yard, but I do know that he hit .402 and had a BABIP of .402, so I'm guessing that a number of his flyballs were off the centerfield wall and went for doubles.  He did have 19 doubles in 266 PAs. 

How about we wait for the 2022 exit velocities for Orelvis?  Then we'll have a better idea the degree to which his home run power results from uppercutting rather than exit velocity.  For fun, I ran a list of players aged 21-23 who amassed WAR of 2 or more while hitting .230 or less.  I got 17 such seasons, with a few names you might have guessed (Joey Gallo, Joc Pederson, Tom Brunansky, Matt Williams) and then some shortstops who were good defenders (Tinker, Peckinpaugh, Reese).  The best qualifying season after 1900 was put in by Barry Bonds in 1986 who I remembered.  There were oddities, to me anyway, like Nick Franklin and Don Money.    Most of the players drew a lot of walks, with Matt Williams the notable exception and really the most comparable player to Martinez.  Williams was a funny case- the Giants promoted him directly from the Midwest League in 1986 at age 20 (where he hit .240/.311/.404) to Phoenix in the PCL in 1987 where he hit .289/.345/.465 in half a season.  The Giants did not take the PCL discount on the stats and promoted him to the big leagues where he hit .188/.240/.339.  So, in 1987 (the hitter's bachannalia year for those who remember), the Giants did the same thing again.  Williams hit .271/.299/.458 in Phoenix in 2/3 of a season and they promoted him again.  This time he hit .205/.252/.410.  So they did it again in 1989 and Williams was now 23 and more or less ready.  He hit .320/.394/.680 in Phoenix in 1/2 season; they promoted him and this time he hit .202/.242/.455 but with enough defensive value that it was worthwhile.  And of course, he went to have a fine career although the Giants didn't exactly make the most of his pre-arb years. 
uglyone - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 03:58 PM EDT (#420207) #
His ISO is the same as last year, his HR/FB and LD% better than last year and is IFFB% lower, and his pull% up slightly....I guess his EV might be down this year but i don't see any reason to think it.

Especially since EV would be a reason why some prospectors who have that info might be higher on him than you are.
Mike Green - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#420208) #
I don't know, UO.  Fangraphs has his current Raw Power at 50 (not that I have any confidence in that).  I'd rather just see the data.  When you have a hitter who hits .210-.215 in high A and double A, it's really hard for me to get excited even if he is 20.  As it turns out, batting average at that age and level is more predictive than power because of the typical progression as players get older (decreases in batting average with increases in power and walks).  So, for instance, Bonds hit .299 and .311 in the minors prior to that season I talked about below.  Mike Trout hit for tremendous average and relatively less impressive pop in the high minors (.326 but 11 homers in 412 PAs in double A the year before he came up). 

I am sure there is a good player who hit .210-.215 in double A ball at age 20, but I can't think of one off-hand.  Rob Deer was something like that.  Gallo is the closest that I can think of.  At age 20, he hit .232/.335/.524 in the Texas League.  The following year, the Rangers sent him back to the Texas League where he hit .314/.425/.636 in 146 PAs and then they promoted him to triple A.  That's the way you do it.  Martinez doesn't take a walk like Gallo did, and has a harder climb.


92-93 - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#420210) #
Are there many guys who hit 30 HRs in AA at 20 and fail to become solid big leaguers?
LouisvilleJayFan - Thursday, August 18 2022 @ 08:40 PM EDT (#420228) #
"Are there many guys who hit 30 HRs in AA at 20 and fail to become solid big leaguers?"

Brandon Wood would like a word.
92-93 - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#420245) #
Wood was 21 in AA.
Mike Green - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#420247) #
I don't think there are very many players who have hit 30 homers in double A at age 20. Usually, they're hitting for a better average than .210 and after half a season with 16 homers or something, they are on their way to triple A.

The baseball cube used to be good for finding this kind of thing. I will see if I can work up a list.
Mike Green - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 12:35 PM EDT (#420249) #
OK.  I searched for players who hit 15 home runs or more in their first season at either age 21 or 22 in the post-war era.  I got 36 names.  One hit 30 homers in double A at age 20- that was Daryl Strawberry.  Another hit 29 homers in double A at age 20- that was Colby Rasmus.  Strawberry's slash line at double A was .283/.419/.602.  Rasmus' slash line at double A was .271/.381/.551.  Those were the only players who got or got close to 30 homers in double A at age 20.  The others were either not at that level at age 20, or more commonly, spent 1/2 season or less.  Most of those were more notable for their batting averages than for their home run production- for instance, Julio Rodriguez last year hit 7 homers in 206 double A PAs, but hit .362/.461/.546, Jason Thompson hit 10 home runs in 267 double A pas, but slashed .324/.415/.523.  Hell, even Chris Davis hit .294/.371/.688. 

The closest player to Orelvis' profile was Miguel Sano who hit 19 homers in 276 double A PAs at age 20 and hit .236/.344/.571.  I was able to check Sano's batted ball profile and it was actually comparable to Orelvis'  (53% FB rate and 23% HR/FB for Sano).  Sano had significantly better W/K data though. 

I checked players who hit 15 home runs or more in their first season at age 23 for the late bloomers, and didn't get any hits there either. 
Ryan Day - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#420250) #
Not quite 30, but Travis Snider hit 25 homers at age 20, combined over A-AA-AAA-MLB. Delmon Young hit 26 at age 19 between AA-AAA.

I don't imagine there are many direct comparisons to Orelvis, because typically you don't get promoted to AA at age 20 after putting up a .282 OBP in 27 A+ games. And usually, a 30 home run pace is good enough to get you promoted to a higher level, since it doesn't usually come with a .211 AVG & .283 OBP.
uglyone - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 01:12 PM EDT (#420251) #
That's a 26hr/650pa pace for Snider at that age compared to a 44hr pace for Orelvis.
uglyone - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 01:17 PM EDT (#420252) #
Note that the names coming up in these comps were all considered super elite prospects, which nobody is claiming Orelvis is.
Mike Green - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#420254) #
These were all the players players who hit 15 homers in the major leagues at age 21 and 22, and yes all of them were very good prospects (well actually, I don't know if Roy Sievers was a very good prospect) mostly because they appear to have been better players than Martinez. The ones at age 23 were not all great prospects at all. But the point is, we're looking for a player who hit 30 homers at double A at age 20 (or was on a 30 homer pace even) and had an average under .230 and an OBP under .320, but later succeeded in the major leagues. I wasn't able to find one, using a pretty minimal definition of success.  If you want to suggest other criteria to try to find this unicorn, please be my guest.  Like I said, Miguel Sano is a pretty good comp and did improve his strike zone control somewhat between 20 and 22.  He peaked out at between 2 and 3 WAR in a season.  Joey Gallo is a pretty good comp also- Gallo hit .232/.335/.524 with 21 homers in 291 PAs in the Texas League at age 20.  Gallo though was running a consistent 30% HR/FB rate in the minor leagues including in double A at age 20.  By the time, Gallo was 23-24, he walked enough and hit for enough power that he could be a decent player hitting .210 in the major leagues. 
uglyone - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#420255) #
other criteria? maybe try including A+ and A in the data, even though those guys would have a big advantage over Orelvis.

also, we should take babip into account here, even he projects as a low babip guy due to his batted ball profile, because hitting in the low .200s with a low .200s babip is imo much more promising than hitting in the mid .200s with a mid .300s babip.

(p.s. those guys coming up in the comps weren't just "very good" prospects - most all of them were considered top-5 in the world type prospects, which nobody is suggesting Orelvis is anywhere near at this point.)

uglyone - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#420256) #
Orelvis' career milb ISO is near .280. Has been .270+ at each level so far.

Maybe use that as the basis for the comps.
Mike Green - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 04:04 PM EDT (#420257) #
Mixing low A data at age 19 and Rookie ball data at age 18 with double A data at 20 is hazardous. How about this- the two closest comps I could come up who made it to the major leagues were Gallo and Sano. Find me one who turned out better than either of them. There may very well be someone, but I couldn't find him. Daryl Strawberry and Colby Rasmus aren't realistic comps.
Nigel - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 05:48 PM EDT (#420259) #
If you adjust for league/hitting environment, Brandon Wood isn't a bad comp for Orelvis (although Wood had better strike zone command - doesn't everyone?). My two cents - notwithstanding that he might be generating it with an uppercut rather than just elite hard contact, the power is unique/elite. All of which is irrelevant without some semblance of strike zone control which Martinez really doesn't appear to have. 30% k rates matched with 6% BB rates for actual prospects is probably just as unique and far from elite. He has time on his side, so there is hope, but I think the odds of him being a good major leaguer are very low at this point.
Mike Green - Friday, August 19 2022 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#420260) #
That's my bottom line too, unless he can be a very good defensive third baseman rather than Miguel Sano or Joey Gallo.
Martinez & Morris Mash | 54 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.