Guerrero Jr. heading to first base on an obvious 3-0 strike was annoying.  He is not going to make any friends with umpires acting like that. 

Ah, but he did it on the road and got the fans cheering for the umpire.

Gurriel Jr. got a poor jump out of the box and should obviously have been held at first.  That wasn't close. 

Or more accurately, Gurriel Jr. had the play in front of him and should have stopped. 

Count me out on Schneider's aggressiveness on the basepaths.

aggressiveness on the basepaths.

As always, it helps you beat the bad teams but it helps you lose to the good ones. You'd think teams would be better at picking and choosing how they're going to play depending on who they're going to play.

In today’s day and age, to get caught by a pitchout is pretty embarrassing.

Seconded.  The Rays have been an excellent defensive club for years.  Hyper-aggressive baserunning is guaranteed to be a bad idea. 

Serious question - is this even a roster that lends itself to aggressiveness on the base paths? My immediate reaction would be no - who on this team is even a "good base runner" leaving aside actual speed? I guess Springer and Vladdy spring to mind as good base runners but I start running out of names pretty quickly.

Guess the Jays couldn’t get anything of value for Pat.

Springer and Tapia have been the best on the bases. They don't run into outs, they take extra bases. Vlad's been pretty good, Chapman's been fine. Everyone else - either extremely cautious (Jansen, Bichette), extremely slow (Kirk), overly prone to running into too many outs (Gurriel, Hernandez) - and in some cases, more than one of these issues apply (Bichette, Kirk.)

Not really a team strength.

Hernandez has been mostly OK, overall.  He runs into too many outs, but he's fast enough that he offsets it by taking enough extra bases. 

For all the talk in the spring about adding weight and gaining power, Espinal has really trailed off. He slugged .295 in July and .227 since the ASB. Not sure what the issue is, but might help explain the Merrifield pick up

Good to see Berrios and Gausman dialed in on Sunday and today.

Espinal has really trailed off.

I think the grind may have gotten to him. It often does, and he hasn't played this many games since 2019.

Great start from Gausman! Leading from example and getting back to form.

Now let’s tack on some runs so he (and the team) can get a badly needed win in the Trop

Its not just Espinal, Kirk was hitting .200 over his last seven games before tonight. Now he is 0-3.

The all-star game is not good for everyone.

Brilliant performance by Gausman. Scoring at least one insurance run T9 would make things a bit easier for Romano B9.

Its not just Espinal, Kirk was hitting .200

Good point. Catchers, of course, work like dogs and get beaten like mules.

Scoring at least one insurance run

So this would be a good time not to run yourself out of an inning.

I thought Kirk was supposed to play every day at DH when not catching. Not like he needs a spell or anything.

Kirk should get more of a breather in September when Moreno joins the team.

Players can go cold without it being fatigue related.

Huge outing from Gaus that started with a 25 pitch first inning and that looked like a possible no-hitter.
Tapia comes out big again with 2 insurance runs.

Gausman works really well with Kirk.

"So this would be a good time not to run yourself out of an inning."

Yeah, despite 3 Jays getting thrown out on the basepaths, Tabby really wanted Teoscar to be aggressive - can't expect to string 3 hits together. Teoscar doesn't run, Tapia and Danny get hits.

To be fair to Tabby, if Teoscar had stolen second, he likely would have scored on Tapia’s single. And the third hit (Jansen’s) was pretty flukey. He got jammed and his pop fly to shallow centre fell in as the fielders converged.

With the Nats trade, Josh Palacios got his first game in the bigs this year vs the Mets tonight. Also a name I kept seeing in the minor league boxscores the past few years, Joey Meneses, made his major league debut at age 30.

To be fair to Tabby, if Teoscar had stolen second, he likely would have scored on Tapia’s single.

And if he had been thrown out, Tapia and Jansen would be leading off the 10th.

For sure. Same as would have happened if Jansen’s jam shot had been caught by Siri (instead of it rolling off his glove).

can't expect to string 3 hits together.

Not against your modern relief ace, he was saying. The problem was back in the third inning, when they did string together two hits, a walk, and a fly ball deep enough to score the man on third... if he hadn't already been thrown out making a very dumb attempt for an extra base.

Aw man. Vin Scully is gone. The best that ever was.

I don't totally hate being a little more aggressive on the base paths than might be expected from the make up of this team... but pick your opponents. The Rays would be just about the worst team to do this against. They always seem to be solid fundamental defenders that aren't likely to mess up cutting guys down.

At the best of times, TB seems like they are performing a magic act making playoff runs with fringey position players and young, unknown pitchers. Given the spate of injuries they have endured this season, the unlikelihood of their continued playoff contention is magnified all the more.

I don't think people realize how much our production at 2B is decreasing. Biggio has slowed down and since June 15th, Espinal ranks 82/82 in wRC+ for all AL qualified hitters.

I think Whitt is both a Springer backup but much needed 2B upgrade.

The new aggressiveness on the basepaths has been fantastic and well timed. Rivera deserves praise for making excellent decisions all season long.

Espinal is basically who we thought he was, and Merrifield should be the starting 2B moving forward if the team doesn't want to use Biggio there regularly vs. RHP because of defense. It will be interesting to see how Schneider deploys them. Ideally it means more off days for Bichette.

Against a RH Merrifield would be my third choice to start at 2B. Against a LH I’d say he was the second choice but there isn’t much to choose between Merrifield and Espinal these days.

A strong start to the season can mask a lot of poor play.

Since May 1st:

Merrifield .266/.315/.397 1.3fWAR
Espinal .266/.313/.362 1.1 fWAR

Since June 8th:

Merrifield .272/.333/.414 0.9 fWAR
Espinal .233/.273/.282 0.0 fWAR

Stripling to the IL, Peacock called up.

There is nothing small about a 3 month sample size. Espinal hasn't been playing that well.

In June, Espinal hit .284/.328/.440 for a 115 wRC+.  The power was still there.  In July, he hit .256/.301/.295.  The power was gone.  It's been a month.  And yes, that is a small sample but certainly worthy of a few days off consecutively. 

Bichette needs to be moved down in the batting order.

Also, is Bichette getting the coaching he needs? He has been labouring at the plate for most of the season.

Ouch to Stripling on the IL. He has been very effective in the rotation. Guess this explains why he was pulled so quickly his last start. He was losing it quick there, wonder what is wrong. Sigh. Matt Peacock was just taken off waivers from KC - just 96 IP lifetime in the majors (last year and this) 85 ERA+ with all 8 starts being last year. 5 times 5+ IP, once 4 2/3, 2 very short games (twice under 2 IP). 3.0 BB/9 vs 5.2 K/9 5.23 ERA in the minors this year so don't expect much - hopefully just left at the far end of the bench and not used except in blowouts. Hopefully Mitch White gets here quickly for Striplings next scheduled start (July 26th his last start, Striplings last was on the 30th).

Baserunning
Montoyo 88 games -4.9
Schneider 15 games -1.3

On a rate basis, Jays are doing worse since Montoyo's dismissal. But they are more exciting.

Seattle (Castillo) is up 4-0 on the Yankees (Cole) in the first inning in New York. Cole has yet to get an out.

Carlos Correa would bat 5th and 6th for the Astros when that was where he belonged in the lineup. It really shouldn't be a big deal to move Bichette down.

Thornton needed the work tho!

I assume Schneider didn't like his second time through the order as much as the first, and didn't want to see a third. But he does seem to have a pretty quick hook.

There seems to be an organizational philosophy that anyone other than the top 3 starters shouldn't face a lineup for a third time. I wasn't surprised to see Kikuchi pulled.

Probably a lot has to deal with building up Kikuchi’s confidence. Had a solid start last time against a weak team and a decent start today against a better team. But both had solid positives to build on and I think they just want to keep doing that. If Kikuchi can give them 4-6 innings of 1-3 ER starts they’ll be very happy. I think biggest thing to get that now is minimize chances that he gets blown up and loses confidence in his pitches.

After the day off and Gausman's gem, the Jay pen could certainly tolerate the heavier workload today. 

Cimber coughs up the tie against the injury depleted Rays.

Can’t remember the last time the Jays looked this lethargic. Poor hitting, pitching and fielding; like they are done. Is this what the dog days will look like?

The Jays offence has been in a collective slump for a while now.

Darn, forgot it was a day game.  92-93, what are you praising Rivera for?  i haven't noticed him either way, but i miss stuff.  hey, it's a slow game!
I agree with your take on the playing time at 2b.  Espinal is still a good secondary player, but he's not an all star offensively. 

Speaking of missing stuff, is Joe Siddal killing it right now?  he seems on point every segment, and i learn from the guy even in his offhanded comments.  for a guy who never played seriously, he really explains some stuff for me better than anyone else.  or maybe he just looks good next to tabby and matt devlin?  woof.  i love matt Devlin with the Raps, but his overfriendly shtick is too similar to pat for my liking. 

Can’t remember the last time the Jays looked this lethargic.

The West Coast road trip right before the All-Star break?

They've scored 69 runs in 14 games (4.93 per game) since the managerial change. (I'm not including any Friday nights in Fenway Park.) And that's perfectly fine. They've averaged 4.83 per game on the season, which is second best in the league.

Not noticing Rivera is exactly what he deserves praise for. In years past there have been numerous bad coaching decisions at 3B, and this year it seems like there haven't been. A few times you are surprised that the runner is being sent, but then a weak and/or offline throw comes in and you wonder if Rivera factored that scouting into his decision.

Joe Siddall is excellent and it's a damn shame that Rogers seems intent on destroying the radio broadcast with Arden Zwelling who is horrendous.

You take out Kikuchi after 4 innings and that means Richards in the eighth down 3-2.  Not a fan.  Let him go another inning if that's what the result is. 

The West Coast road trip right before the All-Star break?

Yup!

Have been watching some of Yanks and Mariners. Completely different energy.

Yeah, Rivera has turned into an excellent 3rd base coach. Coming into the game today, Jays have had only 2 runners thrown out at the plate, best in baseball. Only 2 other teams fewer than 5. 14 teams have 10 or more. KC worst with 18, Tampa and Nats next with 16.

Not noticing Rivera is exactly what he deserves praise for.

The main job of the third base coach during game action is deciding whether to wave the runner home. The Jays have had just two runners thrown out at home this season, the lowest mark in the league (average in the AL is 10 - the Royals have had 18 men thrown out at home, Tampa Bay has had 16.) One of the Jays two outs at home truly was a Bad Send, and as the two players who were caught were Matt Chapman and Alejandro Kirk, I think you can figure out which was the Bad Send.

It's possible Rivera's been a little conservative. Toronto runners have scored second on a single 74 times in 146 opportunities. That's 50.7% of the time; league average is 60.8%.

But they've scored from first on a double 29 times in 63 opportunities, which is 46%; league average is 41.9%.

Richards in the eighth down 3-2.

It didn't hurt this time, but when you commit yourself to using four relievers in a game you always increase the chances of finding the guy who doesn't have it this particular day. Which means you'll need a fifth reliever.

I will always settle for a split in bloody Tropicana. But John Schneider's winning percentage plunges to .800, so I'm sure questions must be asked.

you wonder if Rivera factored that scouting into his decision.

Of course he did. That's his job. Every third base coach is supposed to have a working knowledge of the arm strength of every opposition outfielder, the accuracy of their throws, and how quick they are at getting to the ball in order to make the throw. That's the job.

Been thinking about Merrifield. From his comments after the Jays series and the family comment, maybe he's not the anti-vaxxer, maybe it's his wife.

Frustrating loss, but it's gonna happen in baseball, and always seems to happen at that atrocious ballpark with no redeeming value whatsoever.

I assume George will either be on the IL tomorrow, or good to go back on grass (I know it's the elbow, but they seem to like to protect him from the disgusting Trop carpet). Hopefully the latter.

Looks like we'll have clarity on Merrifield tomorrow, I'm assuming he joins the team in Minnesota.

Yep, it was a frustrating loss.  They hit the ball harder, and it would have been tied going to the 9th had it not been for an incorrect ball/strike call on Yandy Diaz. 

"Have been watching some of Yanks and Mariners. Completely different energy."

Yeah but they're not playing in a place that sucks the energy out of every living being.

I do not know what the Jays' preparation routines are for these mid-week, get-a-away day games, but whatever they are they should consider changing them, I am sure Jobu would understand. Uninspiring efforts seem to be the norm for these games.

I hate the getaway games - rarely remember they are on until I get an alert of the final score on my phone. Ah well.

Teoscar clearly did what he could - 2 hits, 2 RBI, 1 R, 0 LOB. Bo & Kirk going 0-7 hurt a lot. Kikuchi getting 4 innings in is a plus, allowing just 2 runs - for him that is excellent work. I don't get Thornton only going 1 inning though - guess the pen needed work or something.

Also, can we please get the Rays to move somewhere else? 14k is pathetic for a contender facing a top division rival in August. 13 games so far with under 10k for them, 7 with 20k+, 3 at 25k (their current limit - 25,025). The Jays for comparison have 3 games under 20k (18k the smallest), 15 total below the Rays max, 11 at 40k+ - safe to say going forward they should have more 40k+ than sub 25k. The Expos in their final season had 2 over 30k - opening day and the final day. I bet if they got a team again they'd easily out attend the Rays even if still in the Big Owe.

I think in general most 3b coaches are too conservative in sending runners, so not sure judging by fewest caught at home is a great metric. With 2 outs a lose rule of thumb is 2/3 of the time a runner on 3rd who is held will not score, 1/3 of the time they will, so the break even on sending the runner should be just around 33% (slightly higher since you could score multiple runs if you hold and get a good outcome). But clearly way, way below 50%. But most 3b coaches will not send someone that is going to be out 50% of the time, because out at home is much, much more noticeable than held at 3b and not scoring when the inning ends. The Jays do have one of the best offenses in the game, so it would make sense if they should be marginally more cautious than the average team (because their hitters are marginally more likely to drive someone in), but really that is one of the reasons I'm not as down on the aggression on the base paths (especially on the calls sending someone home).

Getting thrown out at the plate is worse than getting stranded at 3B, which buys you another AB.
The rule of thumb is not to send the runner if the outfielder already has the ball but you have to tell the runner before he rounds 3rd. Often the ball is there in time, but the catcher is not able to make the tag.
I imagine that the outfielders practice this regularly unless you're Springer and your elbow is killing you.

It didn't hurt this time, but when you commit yourself to using four relievers in a game you always increase the chances of finding the guy who doesn't have it this particular day. Which means you'll need a fifth reliever.

This is more myth than fact.

When the pen is loaded with 1 inning relievers with low ERA, the best strategy is to use a new reliever every inning.
The catch here is to optimize platoon match up, so a guy might get 4 outs. The illusion is that an ERA of 2.00 is still 1 run every 14 outs. If you have 4 innings to cover, you should expect to give up one run. Pitchers almost always have bad numbers the 3rd time through or after 70+ pitches, so the illusion with starters is that he's going to shut them down for another 3 innings.

Also, the guy who doesn't have it that particular day is often a creation of the manager. He might comes up when relievers have long period of rest or when they are pitching too many innings over a handful of days. So, it's probably better to stick to the schedule and use your guy here or he's more likely to be that guy tomorrow.

I find the Rays have lots of strike out in their game. They can manufacture a run with speed or hit a long ball out of the blue, but as a whole, they seem vulnerable to well located hard stuff.

Richards in the eighth down 3-2.

Wasn't that the lowest leverage inning of the game? That's where I want to see Richards pitching right now. Late in losses--you don't want to give up runs early, just in case you come back. Of course, it's different if you don't have to save anybody for the next day.

Overall, pitching wasn't bad. Offense wasn't good. Nothing from Kirk, Bichette or Chapman. Teoscar almost carried the team. Would have needed some guys on base to do it.

Richards in the eighth down 3-2.

Wasn't that the lowest leverage inning of the game? That's where I want to see Richards pitching right now. Late in losses--you don't want to give up runs early, just in case you come back. Of course, it's different

It's also a close game and you don't want to use an unreliable pitcher in a close game and put it out if reach

Man, i love the discussion round here at times. even when i'm not posting, i learn about the game from you guys.  now i have a reason to pay more attention to the 3rd base coach. 

Every time i see Richards pitch recently he looks sharp, but he's not a guy i trust.  tbh, the only guy i genuinely trust in the pen is Romano.  maybe the changes Bass made are for real.  Garcia is a quality reliever, but as our #2?  that makes me nervous, so hopefully someone steps up.  Pearson?  Merryweather?  Pop?  Gage?
btw, checking Pop's stats, whoever made that Brandon League comp is on to something. 

The SPs doing well for TB are McClanahan, Kluber but he is getting worn down and Rasmussen who got into the 6th inning only 4 times this year. He got pulled once 6IP 2H 0Runs 84 pitches and 7IP 3H 0Runs 81 pitches. Cash is too successful to argue with.

They don't give away anything and make you pay for your mistakes. Somehow.

TB shortens the game by having a "lot" of very good pitchers to pitch 1 inning or multiple innings. They trade for those good pitchers.

Down by 4 or more is the lowest leverage. Down by 5 you're allowed to put a position player on the mound.
Up by 4 or more runs is low leverage, but if you throw a bad reliever there, it can become high leverage quickly.

Down by 1 is not the same as up by one or a tied game.
Being on the road also makes it worse.
The win probability when Richards took the mound was 87.6% for the Rays. When he left it was 84.7%.
Even if the Rays scored one more in the 9th, it doesn't go to 100%.
Also, Richards nullifies the platoon advantage.
It's hard to pitch hit with him.

You don't want to go extra innings at the Trop.
So you really want 2 runs.

This is where I totally disagree with Siddall. He doesn't like to lose without using the best pitchers.
I like to win when I use my best pitchers.

There will be a lot of high leverage innings to pitch in the next series or things will have gone very wrong.

This is more myth than fact.

Disagree, obviously. Because what I'm saying is that if you use four relievers, there's a better chance of stumbling a guy who doesn't have it on the day than if you only use two relievers. No one has it every time. The only reason Richards was pitching in the eighth inning was because one of the planned relievers - Cimber in this case - couldn't get the job done, and Mayza had to come in early and clean up for him.

Obviously, if the score had been 3-3 or 4-3 for the Jays, Richards does not pitch that inning.
Everybody was available yesterday.

The only reason they'd use only 2 relievers is that the starter would be doing well and still have a lead after 7.
Clearly, they wanted Kikuchi to go through the rotation only twice.
Thornton has averaged less than 4 outs per outing all year and wasn't going to pitch multiple innings here.
He was a guy who throws breaking balls from the right side and a decent follow up to Kikuchi who throws harder.
Cimber throws even less hard but gets a lot of contact.

Most of the relievers are not saving anything for a second inning.
Asking them for 2 innings will generate bad results and land them in on the shelf.
Cimber and Thornton are not that type of relievers though.

When you warm up a lefty to face a couple of batters, it's probably not a good idea to bring him after those hitters have reached. As you said, Cimber was the second reliever that day, not the 4th. He wasn't bad because they used 4 relievers. By your logic he should have stayed to get 6+ outs no matter what.

I'm not saying they should use two relievers to get through four innings. Modern relievers for the most part simply aren't capable of that. I'm just saying that the more of them you run out there in any particular game, the greater the chances are going to be of stumbling over a guy not having his best day. Yesterday, they were committed to a strategy that required five different relievers if things went well. And actually - while it proved to be enough to lose the game, one run in four innings from the bullpen isn't bad at all.

TB lost game 1 because they only scored 1 run. Toronto lost game 2 because they only scored 2 runs. If you score only 1/2 runs you deserve to lose IMO.