Hey, Andrew Benintendi went 1-10 against his old team in his first series as a Yankee. There's a trend worth cheering for.

And to recap... the Yankees are getting Frankie Montas and Lou Trivino from Oakland for pitchers Ken Waldichuk, J.P. Sears, Luis Medina and second baseman Cooper Bowman.

And Trey Mancini to Houston, price not yet disclosed.

Looks like Montas and Trivino to the Yanks.

Thanks Magpie

Are the Yankees going to regret giving up any of the players they relinquished for Benintendi, Effross, Montas, and Trivino? I don't think so.

Andrew Benintendi went 1-10 against his old team

He did walk 6 times, though.

Jose Siri to the Rays. He’s batting .178 but hey WAR says he’s 0.8 so ignore that average (eye roll)

Brett Philips DFA??? Easy pick up for Jays.

Siri hit .272/.321/.470 in the minors so maybe there is more there.

Passan has the three team deal:

Houston gets: 1B/OF Trey Manicini and RHP Jayden Murray
Baltimore gets: RHP Seth Johnson and Chayce McDermott
Tampa Bay gets: CF Jose Siri

Brett Phillips (346 career games) - .190/.276/.350, OPS+ 73
Bradley Zimmer (335 career games) - .215/.301/.338, OPS+ 73

Phillips is a year and a half younger, if anyone cares.

That's Brett Maverick Phillips. You'll notice the absence of quotes around the Maverick part. It seems to be his real middle name, not a nickname. Better than Goose, I guess.

Or Bum. Friends don't give friends that nickname.

Is there a law of Benintendi consequences? Let's hope that it leads inexorably to elimination in the first round of the playoffs.

Waldichuk can reach 98mph and his doing nicely in AAA.
Sears did alright in limited action with the Yankees this year.
Medina could be a decent reliever if nothing else.

I think they mostly regret holding on to too many pitchers and losing them in the rule 5.

Yeah, if they wanted pitching, then the Jays didn't have much to give them.

Bum. Friends don't give friends that nickname.

No they don't. That sort of thing is generally the work of young blood relatives who haven't yet mastered speech. Oail Phillips had a younger sister who couldn't pronounce "brother" correctly, so "Bum" he became.

My Uncle Bob had an older sister (my mother) who couldn't pronounce "brother" correctly, but I guess he got lucky. He was known all his life as "Brudge" to the immediate family.

Trading Mancini is the Orioles way of saying "not this year. Not yet."

Braves just extended Austin Riley for 10 years / $212MM.
Why do I get the feeling we'll (over)pay way more than that for Bo / Vlad? Similar to the Leafs paying top dollar for every good player, and other teams somehow get discounts..

Younger siblings would have trouble with Oail too. I guess it was Bum or Owl and tha parents chose Bum. Bad decision.

Pretty good haul for the Yankees, but if they're done, it's still not the same level team that steamrolled everyone the first three months of the season. With injuries in the bullpen, Stanton out for awhile, and a few guys in the bullpen due for a regression, 100 wins isn't a certainty.

Interesting to see how much playing in a much more homer friendly park in New York affects Montas.

With less than 24 hours to go, Atkins facing his toughest deadline in his tenure I reckon.

The Jays front office has generally done a good job in recent years. They've added a lot of talent and haven't given up a lot in trades. I think they should stick to their game plan. Don't succumb to the pressure to trade good prospects for middling players.

One good thing about the Yankees trades is that they might reestablish the norm of not giving up top prospects for players like Montas and Benintendi.

Christian Vasquez to the Astros.

Boston acknowledges reality. Christian Vazquez crossing the field to join Houston.

And Tommy Pham is going... to a team to be named later?

So what did the Yankees give up in that deal?

JP Sears, Ken Waldichuk, Luis Medina, Cooper Bowman. - none on the top 100 BA list, none on Keith Law's top 60+ list, none on the MLB.com top 100 list. Talk about underwhelming. Bloody Yankees, bloody A's going for quantity over quality. Sears has done well in 22 IP for the Yankees this year (190 ERA+) but with just 6.1 K/9. His AAA numbers were better 96 IP over 2 seasons, 11.2 K/9 vs 1.7 BB/9. But overall, the Jays could've easily given a more valuable package. I don't get it. Sigh.

Riley finished 7th in MVP voting. Vlad second.
Vlad is not signing anything cheap.
I wouldn't overpay Bichette. Vlad is the face of the franchise.

The discount is in keeping the prospects.

They need to retain only one of Gurriel/Hernandez.
I don't mind keeping these guys on contract years and issuing QOs.
That's one way to get a leg up in a bidding war.

Jansen will probably want to test free agency.
There is money for good catchers.

Looks like Pham to the ... Red Sox??

I think part of the problem is the dearth of tier 2 prospects (below Moreno and Tiedemann) that have strong appeal to other teams. Unfortunately some prospects (like Groshans and Orelvis and Pearson) have stalled this year and don't have the market value they presumably once did. The Jays have good depth on the farm but may not be as well positioned as the Yankees to make trades right now.

You can’t invest big $$$ in Bo after this seasons performance. He looks like a 20 mil/year type player not 30 or more.

Volpe is hitting .253 in AA. He's a right bat. This isn't Wander Franco.
Peraza is doing similar in AAA. Right bat as well.

Those guys are 21/22 but they could very well come up and struggle.
I'm not sure other teams really value them.

Jasson Dominguez (The Martian) is only hitting .222 in A+ ball.

Re: the Montas trade, in The Athletic write up, they noted that the A’s had a preference for players that were performing well and close to the Majors. Explains the underwhelming return a bit

I am enjoying the trade chat. I have bad feeling that winning the trade deadline will still be heartbreaking. I remember back in 2013 when AA won the off season and the team underperformed.

Bad memories but experience!!

It's not really a dearth. They traded a lot of middling prospects already.
Almost all of the near MLB ready pitchers have struggled and they need to develop some for themselves.
The guys who have struggled were guys they wanted to use, not trade.

Reese McGuire to the Red Sox?

Reese McGuire to the Red Sox?

Well, he's dead to me now.

Boston sending Jake Diekman to the White Sox in exchange.

There are a few Jays prospects on Keith Law's midseason top 60:

5. Moreno
41. Tiedemann
49. Zulueta

Carroll is #1.

Greenfrog - on a previous thread I posted the current top 100's for 3 sites...

• MLB.com: Gabriel Moreno #5, Orelvis Martinez #34, Ricky Tiedemann #61, Jordan Groshans #82
• Keith Law (top 60 + 10): #5 Gabriel Moreno, #41 Ricky Tiedemann, #49 Yosver Zulueta,
• Baseball America: #1 Gabriel Moreno, #34 Ricky Tiedemann - that's it.

Moreno is #1 or #5, Tiedemann is #61/41/34, while Zulueta, Martinez, and Groshans all show up on one list each. Carroll is always top 5 btw, just like Moreno.

Northey I think the Yankees offer is better than what that suggests. Waldichuk is a top three prospect from their system, probably similar to someone like Zuleata.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-yankees-bolster-their-rotation-with-frankie-montas/

Waldichuk is 36th on fangraphs mid season update, well ahead of where they have Ricky and Zulueta. Medina also fits in their top 100, ahead of both our pitchers. (At least on that rating) So I don’t think you can just state that we could match that deal for nothing. The deal for Toronto would have had to have one of those two plus another good prospect at least.

Thanks Kasi - I didn't check FanGraphs but should've obviously. Going by the other lists those guys didn't look impressive. Given I am not an evaluator that was all I had to go by.

An interesting thing now - people are starting to say the Jays should look at 2B for an upgrade. After all, where else can you improve? But I don't see any solid 2B out there who aren't on contenders. Plus Espinal is amazing on defense and Biggio isn't bad. So hard to improve on offense outside of getting a Soto or Ohtani.

IMO the Jays focus is still a mystery.

I originally found out about the rating by looking at a Stoeten retweet. But yeah one evaluators treasure is another’s AAAA fodder. Yankees are just quite good at drafting pitchers so I’m not surprised they can keep trading them.

Maybe I'm missing someone but I can't remember the last prospect the Yankees traded that into a somebody but my memory may be foggy.

As before, lets look at how the Jays are by position for sOPS+ vs the AL only (thus vs the teams we'll face in the playoffs)

• Top 5: CA (147, #1), 1B (120, #2), 2B (109, #5), LF (113 #3), DH (124, #3)
• 6-10: 3B (111, #6), SS (106, #6), CF (119, #6), RF (105, #7), PH (87 #9)
• 11-15: None.

Dang, if that doesn't scream the offense is A-OK. All top 10 in AL, even pinch hitting. Worst position is RF and that is mostly due to Teoscar being hurt for a big stretch early on. So basically a confirmation that the Jays need to work on pitching. Screw the fears on offense and the 'wouldn't that be nice' of upgrading to Soto in RF. Fun thought exercises, but not going to happen.

Phew im so glad we're not taking any risks!!!

For pitching I'd say quality starts is key - 6+ IP/3 or fewer runs. Get a lot of those and with this offense the Jays will win a LOT. AL only

Manoah: #3 at 80%; Gausman #15 at 53%; Berrios #19 at 52% (tied with Robbie Ray), Stripling #60 at 20%; Kikuchi #62 at 18% - clearly the #4/5 guys cannot be counted on. Stripling often allows fewer than 3 runs but doesn't last, Kikuchi made 6 innings 3 times (0 or 1 run each time), same for Stripling (3 times, 0 or 1 ER each time). Basically those 2 are either really good (3 times each) or not. Sigh. A solid 6+_IP guy who allows 3-4 runs each time would probably be a very good fit right now. No need to chase down an ace or a #1/2 guy. Better to chase an overpriced former ace that the Jays could get for almost nothing beyond eating payroll.

For the pen I'd think the Jays want a guy who has been pitching in high pressure despite being on a poor team. Scott Barlow of the Royals fits that perfectly (27 high leverage, #3 in the AL behind Romano and Clay Holmes) - he is tied with Baltimore's Jorge Lopez. Detroit's Gregory Soto is up there at 24 high pressure games (#6 in AL). So a few names to look for the Jays to chase in the next 20 hours (roughly).

Like trading for Berrios, signing Gausman, trading for Chapman...?

Be patient, the trade deadline is still 21 hours away.

Also, one of the best moves the Jays made in the last year was *not* trading Kirk away. (Maybe Gurriel Jr. too.) Sometimes the best thing you can do is refrain from doing something.

I said phew!

Soto against Scherzer tonight: 1/1 with a HR and two walks.

Agree UO.

Get Happ, Quintana, plus a good RP or two, and we're all good.

Quintana to STL.

phew!

greenfrog - very good point. Looking back at Jays prospects who made the BA top 5 you see guys who had 40+ WAR like Delgado & Olerud, 20+ WAR (Vernon Wells) and the worst was Alex Gonzalez who was a solid everyday SS for years.

The highest ranked guy who flopped was Travis Snider (2009 #6) with Nate Pearson (2020 #7) looking like a probable flop. Jose Silva (#10 1990) was also a top 10 flop. All that vs guys like I mentioned above, plus #6-10 successes like Bo, Shawn Green, Alex Rios. Roy Halladay peaked at #12. #15 saw Derek Bell (solid player for a few years), #16 Travis d'Arnaud, #18 flop Eddie Zosky, #20 starts having flops show up more with Mark Whiten (solid), Kyle Drabek (flop), Anthony Alford (flop), and Dustin McGowan at 21 (a few decent years but ended with just 1.6 WAR). You get the idea.

A top 19 guy is a great shot at being a very good MLB player, a 20 and down drops significantly but still has a good shot. So the old 'maybe we should hold on' applies, but last year showed that trading at a peak is a good idea with the Berrios for Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson who both have dropped a LOT in the past year. Martin lost all his power, SWR isn't King guys like before but is a better pitcher one can argue (3.12 ERA in AA at 21 is nice). Guys like that now might be Tiedemann (skyrocketing but A ball pitchers who flame out are common), and Moreno (hard to picture his value going higher than it is now with nowhere to play him). But damn would I hate to trade either as the risk of an 'oh crap what did we do' moment is sky high with them.

Quintana staying in the NL is a good thing. I'm still hoping the Jays get a nice 5-6 inning guy like Madison Bumgarner who is under contract for 2023 to eat a few innings at the back end. Cheap in prospects as Trade Values has him as a big negative. Might be able to take 2 relievers from there too (Joe Mantiply & Ian Kennedy would be nice) in a deal without giving up much of anything. Of course, if they'd mix in Carroll then Moreno could be used :)

One other thing is we don’t know which players who are being shopped just can’t come to the Jays due to vaccination status.

looks like its Syndergaard.

The prodigal son returns. That being said I like him as a starter who can push Kikuchi or Stripling out and who can also relieve in the offseason. He still hits 95 so he can probably hit 97 out of the pen.

If true, I like the idea of Thor returning.

Reported that Jonathan Villar signs with the Mariners (minor league deal). Well, that should torpedo their chances :)

Robbie Grossman has been traded from the Tigers to the Braves via Joel Sherman. As a LH hitting OF he might have been tempting to the Jays - having a terrible year (73 OPS+) but lifetime 101, 114 in 2021 so could be decent, but limited to LF/RF.

Jon Morosi reports Thor is down to Jays/Phillies/Atlanta now. He'd be a nice solid piece - 6 times 6+ IP, just 4 times under 5 IP over 15 starts. 3 times allowing 4+ runs, the rest 3 or fewer. Would give a very solid #4 to the rotation, but a free agent post 2022 with no compensation possible if lost. So hopefully not too expensive in prospects. They have a killer closer in Raisel Iglesias who is signed for 3 more years at $16 mil per, Aaron Loup has been having a very good year (just 36 IP over 42 games) with a poor ERA but 10.9 K/9 and signed for 2023 at $7.5 mil with a $2 mil buyout or $7.5 mil team option for 2024. In case the Jays are looking to get more than 'just' a starter. Interesting options.

No thank you to Syndergaard unless he gets turned into a 100MPH bullpen arm. I’d actually prefer Kikuchi unless the return is nothing prospects.

Tarik Skubal removed from his start tonight due to “arm fatigue.” WHO’s brilliant idea was it to start him on the eve of the deadline?

Bullet dodged there, potentially.

Quintana appears to have cost RHP Johan Oviedo (24 years old, in majors as a reliever after starting 18 games in 2020/21) and 1B Malcom Nunez (FanGraphs #20 Cards prospect, a 40 but having a good year in AA at 21 255/360/463 and playing 9 games at 3B in addition to 1B). Seems light to me (ML reliever and a minor league 1B/3B who wasn't a top 10 prospect for the team giving him up). Might be more to it though.

No thank you to Syndergaard unless he gets turned into a 100MPH bullpen arm.

I don't think that's who he is anymore. This season he's been a rather good finesse pitcher, a guy who keeps the ball in the yard and doesn't walk people. He's been getting killed by his own team, which has scored 2 runs or less in 8 of his 15 starts. In his last seven starts he's 1-5, 3.63, which is hard to do.

Yeah, it’s not him any more and that’s why I hope they don’t trade for him because he ain’t moving the needle much.

At this point I’m expecting a big move by the Jays. If they don’t secure a player like Pablo Lopez, Juan Soto, Gregory Soto or someone else of that magnitude then I will be underwhelmed. John Schneider can’t be the biggest upgrade of the year.

Also, after thinking about it I officially would like the Jays to trade for a big piece or two without touching Tiedemann or Moreno. Trade from the ML roster, that’s my hope.

I don't think Skubal was really available. The Tigers may have been willing to listen to offers, but the price for a talented 25 year old LH under team control for four more years was always going to be very, very high.

Appears Soto to LA for multiple prospects (4) plus Gavin Lux.

Given what was given up for the hottest starters on the market, it is unlikely we will be able to match what other teams are asking for big talent.

Yeah, we'd all love to get the best players at the best prices and be an instant world series favorite. But the competition is fierce and mortgaging too much in hopes of closing the gap on the Astros and Yankees may end up shortsighted.

I like the Syndergaard rumors - he's not what he once was, but we can swallow the cost without needing the Angels to help. He can slot in to the back of our rotation, which is currently a large source of concern. Add a couple of bullpen arms and we are at least competitive in any playoff series.

Source, John?

Agreed - the Jays need innings not "wow" right now. Stuff like Soto and other big names are fun but the Jays have a very strong big 3, a solid closer and setup men, great lineup with no holes, so upping the 4th starter, more pen help, deeper bench are all they need. It'd be fun to get a wow but right now some meh is all that is required.

The Soto trade I saw now appears to be BS. The story came from 2 claims of a guy being pulled from the LA game but when I double checked he played the full game. Should've checked before posting. Ah well. If he goes to LA that price makes sense. 4 very good prospects plus a ML young star.

Boston (52-52) and SF (51-52) have tough decisions to make after their respective win and loss yesterday. Miami also has to decide how they want to approach today's deadline.

Buster Olney this morning confirmed what I've been hypothesizing recently. He said that part of the issue for the Jays is that other teams "just don't view their farm system with a lot of enthusiasm."

I’ve heard people say the same thing, but only outside of Tiedemann, Martinez, Moreno, Zulueta and their 2022 draft pick. It’s the rest of the farm that teams aren’t impressed with.

Kiley McDaniel has them at 20th overall.

Ben Nicholson Smith has said this morning that Merril Kelley is not vaccinated.

I wonder whether Robertson and Happ will be traded individually or as a package.  I guess either is possible and the Jays are a natural trade partner. 

True about having only 4 attractive prospects on our farm. I do like Frasso but he has only pitched 42 pro innings so far.

Now I don't have to worry much about the rule 5 draft.

M Beltre & I Carter are very far from the Majors as are others. S Taylor & O Lopez are bench players at best IMO. So limited value. Robberse & Kloffenstein are not close to the Majors and so should be considered as just having potential at the moment.

I realize now about a Bauxite saying that Atkins has a tough trading deadline.

Final predictions!

Juan Soto- Padres (heavily rumoured right now)
Josh Bell- Padres (heavily rumoured)
Wilson Contreras- Mets
Ian Happ- Blue Jays
David Robertson- Blue Jays
Noah Syndergaard- Phillies
Carlos Rodon - Blue Jays

Jordan Groshans and Adam Kloffenstein's failure to show star potential has made the 2018 draft look less than great. Griffin Conine was picked in between them, too. Proving the draft is a crapshoot once again is 6th round pick, Addison Barger, showing the most potential. Maybe I'm selling Groshans short, but he's not showing much power potential and isn't mentioned as a prime trade target of other teams any more.

A couple of Jays prospects made BA's latest Hot Sheet:

- Barger (#8) - improved bat-to-ball ability - has been "more consistently able to get to his power"

- Orelvis (#13) - he is "one of the youngest players in the league and has plenty to improve upon, but he’s shown his raw power plays in the upper minors"

Really nice to be seeing the Orioles sell some pieces with how many games we still have with them this year. Hopefully they've played their better ball over the first half and we will be catching them a little weaker.

I keep looking at the Cubs and guys like Happ and Robertson and can't help but think: man, if only Marcus Stroman didn't have history here...with his 2023 opt out, he'd be kind of a perfect fit right now. Alas.

Seems like other teams don't value much of Jays prospects outside of Moreno, Tiedeman, O. Martinez, Zulueta and G. Martinez. Jays are probably being asked these prospects in almost all trade proposals and Jays feel the returns they been asking for don't justify trading away these prospects...that's my gut feeling. Jays also don't have many good pitching prospects...usually what you see moved a lot in trades.

As much as I'd love the Jays to get a batch of guys, I don't see it as they have promoted/traded/had flop too many prospects.

• Under 25 in majors: Alejandro Kirk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Alek Manoah - top prospects are out there who are as old or older than these guys, all all-stars.
• Under 25 on 40 man: Leo Jimenez, Gabriel Moreno, Otto Lopez, Hagen Danner, Max Castillo
• 2021 draft: Gunnar Hoglund traded, Ricky Tiedemann skyrocketing, Chad Dallas meh, Irv Carter dinger problem in rookie ball at 19, Hayden Juenger in AAA already, Jaden Rudd in rookie ball still, Trenton Wallace - K's or walks everyone. Covers everyone with a $150k+ bonus.
• 2020 draft: Austin Martin - traded, CJ Van Eyk had Tommy John last September, Trent Palmer doing OK in AA, Nick Frasso lights out in A/A+ but no more than 4 IP per start, Zach Britton now up to AA in LF with some C and an OPS over 800. - despite losing the top pick and the 2nd having TJ this is a promising class.
• 2019: Alek Manoah - OK, that was a successful class. Yeah, others drafted but if you get a Manoah out of a draft you win.
• 2018: Groshans - driving people nuts as a decent prospect but not able to break through or he'd be gone or up by now. Conine was traded. Adam Kloffenstein is the million dollar arm that you don't know where the ball is going with - maybe time to look at relief work for him. Sean Wymer (4th round good bonus) has moved to the pen. Addison Barger finally showing something (up to A+/AA with an overall line of 327/393/591 at SS/3B) at 22 and should climb prospect lists.

So the Jays have found talent lately, but not highly ranked talent thus making it hard to trade them. The cream was already traded in Martin, while the Jays produced an all-star in Manoah from the past 3 drafts (this years is still in the 'where do we put these kids' stage). I see a lot of guys who could be useful parts but until others see that the Jays are stuck with them. Pre-2018 you are getting into guys who are 40 man already thus harder to trade or see as prospects (such as Nate Pearson). So what do the Jays do this year? Not sure. Maybe eat someone's bad contract to get talent in or settle for minor tinkering. Really, that is all the Jays need - so much talent here already. I suspect the Jays will look at signing Thor this winter (no compensation) and at a few others to deepen the team but trades will be hard until/unless evaluators see more in the kids.

I still think Atkins might have a significant move or two up his sleeve. Gonna have to move some talent to make it happen, though.

O's dump their closer Jorge Lopez to the Twins. The O's get 4 pitchers in return - LHP Cade Povich (Twins #22), RHP Yennier Cano (13 IP this year 43 ERA+), RHP Juan Nunez, and LHP Juan Rojas. None a top 100, and only Povich on the Twins top 30 at MLB.com. Cano is on Fangraphs as their #38 and Povich #22. So the O's get a batch of arms, none amazing, for a very good closer.

Of interest - Aaron Sanchez is now a Twin with 1 start going 5 IP 4 H 2 R/ER 2 BB 8 SO. Nice to see he got another shot.

Given the Jays have 15 games left vs the O's their giving up is a very good thing for the Jays. Trading their lock down closer, and Trey Mancini (1B/DH with a 114 OPS+) for prospects helps the Jays a fair amount this season. 6 more vs Boston who also appears to have given up isn't bad either. The 7 vs the Yankees will be tough of course as will the 11 vs the Rays, but overall the trading season seems to be an asset so far for the Jays even if they don't do anything.

Morosi says the Padres are on the verge of acquiring Soto.

The money owed D Robertson is a key factor. A non contender will not want to pay for this year and certainly not for any future years. For I Happ the OF when is he a FA and how much are they paying for this year and expect to pay in the future? Happ is having a good year offensively.

<br>https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/08/report-padres-on-the-verge-of-acquiring-juan-soto.html
Agreement in principal for Bell and Soto. Hosmer would have to be going back. What prospects?

Abrams, Hassell III, Wood and Susana for Soto and Bell? Very disappointing Jays didn't top that. Huge underpay.

3 top 100 prospects and another close one. So what would comparable be? Moreno, Ricky, Zulueta and O Martinez? Aka gut the top of their farm system? I don’t think it is easy for the Jays to top that deal.

And Gore.

I wanted the Jays to get a BP arm and Soto. AJ Preller had other plans. Bader and Soto in.

Here's what it cost:

Taylor Rogers, Dinelson Lamet, Gasser, Ruiz, Abrams, Hassell, Wood and Susana

Jays could have easily topped that deal. If McKenzie Gore is included then that's the trump card and nobody else would top that.

Now Passan saying another major leaguer heading back too.

Wow Preller. That is a costly package indeed and I'll step back and applaud Atkins for not pushing in all his chips.

Rodon is interesting. I am not sure that SF is a seller because so far they have not done anything much. Rodon can opt out of his 2nd year. He does give them a chance to sneak into the playoffs because he is having a good year.

If Rodon opts out and is offered a QO and refuses then if signed does SF get a draft pick?

Yeah no thanks to trying to top that. Ofc Padres are still not going to win anything but they will be more fun to watch. Dodgers are still much better.

Dodgers are not much better. Not with Machado, Soto and Tatis in the line up and that rotation with Hader. I'll take the Padres now.

Oh yeah, looks like Hosmer is going back as part of the deal, so its even better for Preller and the Padres. Like someone tweeted today: This is AJ Prellers world and we're all just living in it.

New Hampshire lineup is published. Barger and Orelvis are listed as playing.

Prellar just knows how to make flashy trades. He doesn’t know how to build a farm system and promote players from within. Dodgers still have a better lineup than SDP and much better pitching. Dodgers are just in another league.

Getting Josh Bell and out from under Hosmer's contract at the same time though... That's some pretty nice gravy to go with the prospect package.

How can you say he doesn't know how to build a farm system when he literally just traded away a boat load of great and good prospects for the best young player in baseball?

He hasn't graduated many because he has traded them for all stars. He's traded for Tatis.

Dodgers do have a better rotation but they don't have a better bullpen. Line up favours the Padres, and after this summer Trea Turner is gone.

Top prospects don't get moved for rental players and rental players is all the Jays need.
Years of control are not important, but they need to find another reliever or the clubhouse will feel let down.
The rotation is more complicated. They have to manage Kikuchi somehow. Stripling will be happier if he keeps starting.

The more Baltimore sells, the better.
Unfortunately, they don't have that many free agents.

Eric Hosmer has Nationals on his No Trade List...they are waiting for him to approve this deal...

Hosmer refusing to sign off would be incredible.

However, considering his agent is Boras, and there's a lot of Boras-adjacent players here, I suspect it still gets done.

Pretty incredible trade. Hopefully this unsticks the market for the rest of the day.

Chances are they got a HoF and an elite closer for “some guys”. You can count me in the camp that would prefer to take 3 runs with Soto and the current core than holding onto the farm.

I agree with Kazi. SD 79-83 in 2021 which was a continuation of SD's futility. But now they have B Melvin as their manager so that could be the difference.

Baseball is hard to predict. Milwaukee and St Louis have been winning for a while so continued success is quite likely.

There is always an unexpected bad/good team each year. Minnesota is that last year and this year and maybe NYM.

Soto in my opinion is overrated. He is a great hitter but at the old age of 23 he’s already a negative defender and a negative base runner and isn’t showing any signs of getting better. The dodgers are just much better at promoting their minor leaguers to be useful members of their team. (Like just look at how they got their rotations and all they have in AAA and AA ready to step up) Padres have drafted well but just like 2 years ago they’re again just trading the farm for established players.

I bet you they win a Wold Series before the Dodgers do...

23 is now old age. GTK.

The Jays don't have the prospect capital to compete with the Padres offer - seems a good trade for both teams - the Nationals got quality prospects and the Padres got 3 swings at making a deep playoff run.

Dodgers just won the World Series so kinda hard to bet against them at this point. Interesting that they haven’t been doing flashy deals this year.

The Jays could have beat that comfortably.

Obv Soto is not old but I was reading an article about Soto on ESPN last week and they were saying teams were already being scared about extending him because at his young age he’s already seemingly given up on non hitting. The question is ofc how much of that is just because of playing for a bad team. Maybe it’s just mostly effort and he will play in the field better for a winning team. But even with more effort he’s never going to be a positive fielder/runner.

Quite the trade. So who did Washington get?

C.J. Abrams (#9 MLB prospect coming into this year, 77 OPS+ so far this year as a rookie), outfield Robert Hassell III (ranked from #26 to #33 pre season in MLB, #21 on MLB.com right now), RHP Jarlin Susana (looking good in his first pro season) and outfielder James Wood (1000 OPS in both his first and second season as a pro, #88 in MLB.com's rankings right now). So that is a pretty big package. It would've been very hard for the Jays to match it.

Still looking for LAD and Phils trades.

Soto's a great hitter, but the Padres are a long, long way behind the Dodgers, as far back as the Jays are behind the Yankees. Soto and Bell aren't enough to make up for that. And they don't fill existing holes - they upgrade positions that were already adequate or a little above average. Josh Hader definitely helps, but what they really need is for Sean Manaea and Blake Snell to pitch a little more like the way they did in the American League.

Oops, missed MacKenzie Gore who was a top 100 pre-2022 and was #6 in MLB in pre-2021 rankings. Dang. That is a big package. Good for Washington and glad Soto is going out west and not to the AL East.

Preller has made one good trade as GM.
Granted, it was an all-timer, but he's not infallible. I suspect the Padres are still not as good as the Dodgers, and if course, The Dodgers might have another move to make

They won the series in a shortened season. Not the same thing. They weren't good enough to get past the Braves last year.

Soto has the ability, not necessarily the mindset. I was sure happy he is not coming to the Jays.

Very quiet trade deadline. Seeing what Castillo cost the Mariners, I can see why the Jays are silent or waiting for the prices to fall.

They weren't good enough to get past the Braves last year.

Baseball is a lot more random than many people think. The Dodgers were good enough, they just didn't.

"Soto has the ability, not necessarily the mindset."

Everyday I am reminded how fortunate I am to read comments from people who see these players up close and personal-like every day. So many other sites have commenters that partake of long-distance diagnosing, but not here!

It would've been very hard for the Jays to match it.

Yep. The Jays dont really have any top end pitching prospects close to the majors. Tiedemann and Zulu have a year of professional experience. You would have to think they would want Kirk, Tiedemann, Orelvis, Moreno. Thats less than they got. The conversation probably ended when they asked for Manoah

Dodgers still a better team probably but Padres are good and exciting. It's a lot of top prospects but unlikely any of them becomes a star so I'll always take the side getting the superstar.

Soto is 5 months older than Guerrero and has logged 550 more PA to date. His career OPS+ is 160, almost as high as the 167 from Guerrero's near-MVP season.

I think I'd happily make room for Soto on my team.

I'm willing to bet that at least one of the prospects becomes a star especially James Wood.

Lots of rumbling around Thor and Iglesias, but am I the only one thinking that it would be extremely off-brand for this front office to sign up for $16m/year for Iglesias for the next 3 years?

Per Davidi, looks like Anthony Bass and Zach Pop for Jordan Groshans.

Hosmer torpedoed Bell, but Soto still going to SD, the exact pieces havenèt been identified. Package may change. They werent saving from what I read except for whatevers left on this seasaon. It would help, but not much. Mostly its the roster spot for a better hitter.
Looks like Washington will replenish their prospect depth though.

No pressure, Ross!

@JonHeyman
Hearing of Jays players disappointed to see them not doing anything yet (and probably seeing the first place Yankees get better). Still 4.5 hours to go however and they are working on pitching, and maybe a lefty bat.
1:35 PM · Aug 2, 2022

Anthi4ony Bass and Zac Pop for Groshans...rumour.

Bass returns to the Jays, at age 34 he is having an excellent season.

Pop returns to the GTA. The 25 year old is from Brampton. He is probably more of a back end guy.

This raises the floor of the bullpen by a decent amount, I think, without significantly raising the ceiling? What it does do is ensure fewer innings for guys who are really not cutting it. I think I'm fine with it...Groshans really hasn't done enough to suggest he's a long term piece. Curious this is what they used him for. Might have thought he could be part of a bigger deal.

Pop played HS baseball here in Brampton. Jays drafted him out of HS, but he went to college.

Bass and Pop have good numbers this year but not exactly comfortably reliable RP even in a world where RP are mostly never reliable.

Solid bolstering of the pen, but even though Groshans is scuffling this year it's mostly due to a mysterious drop in power, which if it corrects itself could turn him back into a good prospect, so this might be expensive for pure relief help.

Absolutely nothing wrong with that deal but it does very little for the team. I doubt Pop would see any innings in a playoff game and I suppose Bass might be a medium leverage 6-7th inning guy in the playoffs.

I do not like this deal, seems light for Groshans.

Pop has good stuff but doesn't quite get results so maybe they make him better with some tinkering. Bass is definitely an upgrade and can pitch later in games. They're also getting a PTBNL according to one report l.

Terrible deal for the Jays. Even with 2023 option on Bass I don't like this.

Very underwhelmed. Not the arm I would put up against elite line ups in high leverage situations.

I have trouble seeing this as a terrible deal for the Jays as I don't think that Groshans has much value left. I think its more of a nothingburger deal than a terrible deal.

Pop hardly strikes anybody out, but for relievers with 20 IP this year, he's 98th percentile in both groundball rate and BB rate.

Groshans was always the guy they were willing to trade this year.

Soto is 5 months older than Guerrero and has logged 550 more PA to date. His career OPS+ is 160, almost as high as the 167 from Guerrero's near-MVP season.

Think about how good he could be with the right mindset!

The Marlins deal suggests to me that there was no "bigger" deal out that that Groshans could have been a part of. I suspect the Jays decided that given the relief options available, he was the name they were most comfortable trading, and this was the deal they thought was best.

It's not Groshans so much as who they got for him. You're telling me you couldn't trade Groshans, Zulueta, Horwitz and Taylor for Job Pederson and Carlos Rodon?

"I think its more of a nothingburger deal than a terrible deal."

Agreed....but then again, i'd call a deadline of nothingburgers this year a terrible deadline.

It's not a terrible deal but it doesn't move the needle so I would probably prefer to keep the lottery ticket.

Well, Jordan Groshans star has dimmed a LOT this past year (loss of power will do that). Pop has years of control (through 2026) but not a big K guy, more a useful middle man who could eat a few innings instead of guys like Thornton. Bass has been having a very good year and would be an upgrade from Banda, and might take away some of Richards innings too. Those 2 would solidify the 4/5/6 innings instead of using Cimber that early when it is close. Bass has a 2023 option ($3 mil) or buyout ($1 mil).

When I flip this deal around in my mind, if I was a selling team and getting a player with Jordan Groshans career MILB line in return for two MLB-caliber relievers, I'd be pretty underwhelmed. Groshans' draft status has never really matched the numbers, for a variety of reasons, and he's been heading the wrong direction this year too.

I think it's the cost of doing business, and I think this raises the floor on the 2022 Jays, while also helping out future years with quality relievers.

I much prefer this to an Iglesias acquisition, which salary wise would have prevented other things down the road.

It's disappointing only if you still consider Groshans a top prospect. However, chances are based on his 2022 numbers, especially as it relates to (lack of) power, that "top prospect" ship has likely sailed. For the Jays to give up on a player this young, they probably don't see his bat rebounding.

The problem with the Jays is that the farm system aside from Moreno and maybe Tiedmann lacks highly desirable trade chips. If Orelvis was having a better season, then maybe his value would be higher, but it's not a system built for big trades right now. I doubt they have the capital to get Happ and a reliever like some have speculated. Syndergaard might be possible since he's expensive and the prospect cost should be lower.

I don't think so, no. I think Rodon is going to cost a prospect more like the best one in the Castillo/Montas deals, and the only guy the Jays have in that class is Moreno (maybe Tiedemann now), and I don't think anyone would be excited to give up either of those guys for Rodon.

Pop also throws hard. Averaging 96.5 on his sinker and 86.5. You have to think the Jays hope to unlock more K ability.

https://twitter.com/PitchingNinja/status/1540815860067082240

Didn't Groshans increase his walks and cut down on his strikeouts this year? Isn't he 22 years old in AAA? Seems strange that the Yankees hold onto guys like Perraza and Volpe with similar track records while the Jays punt Groshans. Keep the lottery ticket.

Maybe if they traded him for Barlow and Staumont I could understand, but Anthony Bass, having the best season of his career at 35 years? We're going to rely on him again?

Having Cimber come in during the 7th instead of the 6th is not an improvement. We can't have guys like Cimber pitching meaningful innings in the playoffs.

Here are the bullpen pieces you can throw against the Astros and Yankees with a chance of success:

Jordan Romano
Anthony Bass
Yimi Garcia (maybe?)

Rodon is a free agent in 60 days. He has a $22 million/year salary with a player option for 2023

Montas is a free agent after 2023 with a $5 million/year salary

Castillo is a free agent after 2023 with a $5 million/year salary

Rodon will cost more in the next 60 or so days than Montas or Castillo will all of next year.

Cimber is hardly unplayable. I’m fine with not touching our minor league pitching which means Groshans pretty much. He’s basically turned into a worse version of Austin Martin. Curious who the ptbnl is though.

Yeah I dont think you have to think groshans is a top prospect to still be underwhelmed by trading him for two RP who could easily turn out to be not very good for us without surprising anyone. Any prospect thats still a young age and has any tinge of top prospect on his resume seems a bit rich for fungible RP.

* Correction:
Castillo on 7.3 million/year

"He’s basically turned into a worse version of Austin Martin"

Well they have similar statlines this year but Groshans is a year younger and one level higher so not so similar really.

Andrew Vasquez has been lost on waivers to the Phillies. Jays needed to make room on the 40 man.

I will admit after looking at their lines this year it is surprising how similar Martin and Groshans look. At the same time, like Ugly points out, Jordan is younger and at a higher level.

He's had a "tough" year in 75 games in 2022. Previously he never hit below .290 so he's got a lot of potential still. I wouldn't trade that for Anthony Bass and Pop. Just give me better relief options.

Bringing up Martin is actually interesting.

Groshans is quite literally a better prospect than Martin, and people were quite upset about trading Martin last year for a proven quality SP, not just a couple iffy RP.

I don’t think Pop is fungible. Bass is pretty good too. Both are controlled through next year or further. Pop has elite sinker velocity and one of the best sinkers in the majors. I think it’s overall a solid deal.

Not trading Moreno is malfeasance.

I really wanted Groshans to work out.  Loved the pick with the joint signing of Kloff at the time. 

But I don't attach my ego to my evaluations and Groshans has never lived up to his draft spot and has been passed (in my opinion) by several people this year.  I'm not even sure he'd be finishing the year in our top 10.  
So I have no problem moving him. 

That said, Marlins fans have not exactly been complimentary of Bass or Pop in some of the other forums I've seen so if this is all that we get then I'm disapponted.  It isn't nothing. But like someone else said it raises the floor of our bullpen without actually raising the ceiling.  Worse yet is that neither is a lefty. 

Meh to the trade.  I won't complain too much because the Jays have been active and invested in this team a lot already but if we want to start to feel good about October baseball then I think that we need something more.

Hey don't get me wrong Groshans is likely not much, like most prospects, but this is literally the first season where he hasn't been a well above average hitter, and he's always been young for his level. Jays must be pretty high on these 2 RP.

The baseball savant page for Bass is excellent, dark red almost exclusively.
He’s not the same dude he was with the Jays.

Fits the front office's MO of holding on to the prospects they really like and moving the ones who have lost (or are in the process of losing) favoured prospect status.

Not trading Moreno is malfeasance.

Unless you actually have inside knowledge of what Moreno would have brought in return - do you? - that's something of an overreach.

With infielders like Barger & Damiano Palmegiani having encouraging years , Groshans probably is more expendable - not to mention that Orelvis Martinez plays 3B.

"Pop has elite sinker velocity and one of the best sinkers in the majors"

Kasi, where do you get your information from? I've seen some nice sinkers posted on Twitter but that's not quite reliable.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitch-movement?year=2022&team=&min=q&pitch_type=SIFT&hand=&x=diff_x_hidden&z=diff_z_hidden

One can disagree with the premise, but it is fairly obvious the #1 prospect in baseball (or top 5 if you want to split hairs) would have brought back something extremely valuable.

Extremely underwhelming day so far, but lots of time left.

He is just like Martin last year, and Groshans this year, his lack of power/massive splits is not ideal at this point.
Get rid of him before it comes more evident he won't hit.
His 2021 AA 100AB performance is an outlier, and people need to realize this now.

Eno Sarris notes that Pop’s slider is top 30 in MLB by STUFF+

He says Pop doesn’t throw it nearly enough and has the ability to take a step forward by changing his pitch mix

Was just thinking that Padres might just dump Hosmer on the Red Sox since the Padres will be paying and the Sox need a 1B & apparently it has happened - good gamble by the Red Sox.

Pop throws hard but doesn't strike out many, just gets a lot of groundballs with his sinker.
Reminds me of a young Aaron Sanchez in that regard.
Might just need to improve the slider to be more effective, but has been good this year regardless.

Bass is a rental who was good with the Jays in 2020. He's been dominant this year.
He's had more strike outs, fewer walks and fewer homers compared to 2 years ago while playing on a bad NLE team.
He's been great in high and medium leverage limiting opponents to a .185 batting average.
Pitched the 7th 29 time, the 8th 15 times and the 9th 8 times.
Has not been used otherwise.

This is the guy that jumped out to me earlier.

Apparently there is also a PTBNL coming to the Jays later. Nothing major, I would think.

What I like about this.
Not trading any pitchers. Trading a guy already on the 40 roster who wasn't going to graduate here.

Would have been great if Otto Lopez could have sufficed but let's be realistic. Groshans isn't a top 100 prospect anymore. They hold on to Moreno, Martinez and Tiedemann. They reloaded on infield prospects with Kasevich and Doughty.

Are the Jays going to regret this? I doubt it.

The lowest I have seen Moreno ranked is #5. When is the last time a Top 5 prospect was traded in a season they were ranked that high?

85, you always have a knack of thinking or suggesting moves which end up happening. What's happening with Carrol out in ARZ?

Moreno would surely bring back a lot but what if it isn't what the Jays want or need? You don't trade prospects just to trade them and Moreno is very unlikely to lose value until the winter.

It seems like Hosmer won't approve a trade.
What would it take? A better team? A raise/extension?

Good luck with that.

With the Marlins at home, is there a chance Bass or Pop could suit up with the Jays tonight??

Moreno is probably the favourite to be called up on September 1.

Moreno is young. Power is the last thing to come. And he's hitting very well for a catcher anyway.
He was hitting 9th, not clean up.

I just looked at Moreno's stats this year in AAA and doubled the stats to 90 games:

.306 average
.781 OPS
10 SB

Top flight defence and it's clear why he's a top prospect. Catchers are not supposed to bat in the .300s with OPS over .700 at such a young age.

I can see people not being impressed by him if they compare his bat to prospects at other positions. C's aren't supposed to have huge bats.

It's also possible the Jays don't want to move Moreno and prefer moving Jansen, but they can't move Jansen until the off-season because it would hurt their chances in 2022. I still think the long-term plan is Moreno/Kirk together, but I guess we will see.

Isn't it the first year Groshans has been healthy?

I think I'd have been fine with moving Moreno (who no one expects to hit for a lot of power anyway) this year if the deal brought in a top flight starting pitcher. But the teams with those pitchers on the market in 2022 generally happened to have good young catchers already in place. Moreno's only 22 years old, still learning the position, and if he's hitting .306 in his first look at AAA, he may hit even better second time around. There's plenty of time, for all sorts of decisions regarding him and the team's plans for his position, and to see who needs a catcher next July. Three's a crowd, certainly, but Danny Jansen could be the guy who gets moved by then. Maybe even Alejandro.

Who was upset about trading Martin? The guy has no defensive value.
I was down about losing SWR, but once they extended Berrios, it worked out.

Sorry Dalimon I misspoke it is his slider not his sinker. I think Pop could turn out to be very good if they can unlock his K potential a bit more. Plus they have years of control with him.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1554522310249308160

It seems like Hosmer won't approve a trade.

Not to Washington. So he's off to Boston, with San Diego paying much of the remaining tab.

All good Kasi!

Banda DFA'd

There should be no need for Bass or Pop to pitch tonight with the Jays being fully rested.

Bass is already familiar with Jansen, he was basically the closer here in 2020 after Giles' arm fell off.

Interesting to look at who was in the pen 2 years ago. Lots of churn:
Dolis, A.J. Cole, Borucki, Font, Hatch, Yamaguchi, Kay, Pearson, Waguespack, Stripling, Romano, Merryweather, Zeuch, Reid-Foley, Murphy, Giles, Gaviglio, Bergen, Perez, Moran.

His partial no-trade clause doesn't have Boston on it.
So, they just kick him out, basically. 

It does feel like Pop is the interesting part of this. It strikes me as a "we're not just thinking about today, we're also thinking about tomorrow" move.

That being said, even if Groshans has fallen as far as he has, and I think logically it makes sense to trade him if the organization believes it's not going to get better, it is still surprising prospect capital for relievers. We should be trading more Andrew McInvale's.

Of course, the price of relievers is a bit higher this year. But it's not astronomically higher. It's clear the pressure was on.

Not sure what other moves we'll make - I liked the idea of Syndergaard coming back, though.

I am waiting until the end to comment substantively.  The only thing I'll say here is that I have no idea what's up with Groshans.  He's had the foot injury, and a recurrence of the foot injury, and this year an oblique injury.  It may be that the injuries have sapped his power, but fans are usually the last to know. 

I am waiting until the end to comment substantively.

I'm out of here for the moment as well. Strange goings-on in F! today!

Pop used to throw his slider more but got better result this year by throwing it less.
Went from 4 walks per 9 innings to 0.9, K rate when down from 8.4/9 to 6.3/9.
His FIP went down from 3.77 to 2.82.
Which shows there is nothing wrong with sticking to the fastball if they can't do anything with it.

Still waiting to see if there is another shoe to drop (Happ? Robertson? Rodon? A Tigers RP?).

Trading Groshans to DFA Banda seems like a worthwhile trade to me!

More seriously, it really doesn't look like the Jays mid-tier of prospects was regarded that highly and/or took steps back this year, which really hurts finding deals that match up compared to other teams.

On Martin, I thought he still had significant value (but still liked the deal as a perfectly reasonable slight overpay), with my thoughts being that he had only struggled with power for a few months. Of course, he continues to have powerless month after powerless month, and has definitely proven ugly's skepticism++ correct.

As for Pop and Bass, they should both give the bullpen some much-needed controlled velocity.

<br>I'm a little concerned about Hosmer in Fenway, because he might be able to take advantage of the monster or have that hide his decline /approach flaws.
I've been hopeful of Groshans but meh. If he sticks at SS though, it might sting a little.

I like this trade a lot. Groshans had very limited potential. With Pop and Bass the headlines pretty much write themselves.

I think Espinal is part of the equation.
Since he took a step forward offensively, the Jays have depth in the infield that makes Groshans redundant while Moreno is just an injury to Kirk or Jansen away from another call up.

The need this year and next year is pitching.
Apparently they discussed Raisel Iglesias with the Angels.

In 2 years, they'll be looking for 3B and outfielders.
Trading prospects for prospects is complicated.
Everybody seem to want pitching prospects.
They used to have younger guys in the Tapia role and it hasn't worked.

With Bass and Pop, the Blue Jays have gone all-in on the music.  Would have preferred if they went all-in on fish with Bass and Trout. 

Let's see how Bass performs when he runs into treble.

Springer out again today. 2B offensive production hasn't really been there recently.

Ian Happ still makes a ton of sense to me for this club.

Iglesias and Thor would be a nice pair of additions to the team.

We can't have guys like Cimber pitching meaningful innings in the playoffs.

Heaven forbid the pitcher with the career 2.43 ERA for the Blue Jays pitch meaningful innings in the playoffs. That would be unforgiveable.

How many high leverage innings has he thrown Thomas?

Deals are starting to fly now:

Robertson to PHI.
Ruf to NYM (Davis to SF).
Marsh to PHI.

That Marsh/O'Hoppe deal is going to drive Northey nuts.

How many high leverage innings has he thrown Thomas?

Is it your contention he's not effective in high-leverage innings? If so, why not just say that?

So Corbin not attached to Soto deal. As predicted.

They rested Springer on Sunday to give him an extra day.
They also gave him an extra day around the All-Star break.
Two days doesn't seem enough, so I was expecting him to get another one today.
I don't know anything that heals in a day or two.
I used to get carpet burns doing judo once a week and it takes 2 weeks to heal.

It's a conundrum.
They can give him the full 2 weeks but it's probably not enough to heal what ails him and then his timing will be lost.
So they will likely DH him more and rest him around off days.

Happ is having a great year, but you can't predict how well he'd hit facing pitchers he's not familiar with in a 2 month stretch. It would be an easier call if Springer was on the IL, because having to sit Gurriel/Teoscar/Kirk more doesn't make a ton of sense.

Knew Robertson was going somewhere. Wanted him here but at least he is going to the NL and not the AL. Ben Brown is listed as going the other way (via Robert Murray of FanSided). A 22 year old RHP in A+ who has jumped his stats this year (12.9 K/9 vs 2.8 BB/9) so it makes sense.

I'm more looking at a lineup that is rolling out Tapia-Jansen-Espinal in the 7-8-9 spots today, at CF-DH-2B, and thinking I'd prefer Happ (a switch hitter to boot) at literally any of those 3 positions right now.

I don't think you'll have to sit Lourdes/Teo/Kirk much to get Happ into the lineup most days.

Guessing that the ask for Happ is Tiedemann.

Re Cimber and leverage. He’s been excellent in high leverage situations this year: 250/256/389. wOBA 272

11.2 of his 44 innings have been high leverage.

Thanks, Mike.

It's not really middle relief. It's about having enough pitchers to pitch every high leverage innings instead of most of them. This way, Mayza can be used against lefties. Romano has been used in the 9th but he can't pitch every day.
Garcia has often been used against the middle of the lineup, but you can't throw him there every day either.
It's about pulling the starter early in a close game. It's about not waiting to bring a reliever with guys on base.

The real middle relief role has more to do with the offense.
I haven't seem many games with high scoring on both sides.

By "high leverage" and "meaningful innings" regarding Cimber I am not referring to a counting stat which dictates a high leverage situation based on count, men on base, etc.

I am referring to a situation where you are facing the opposing teams best hitters in a playoff game with the game on the line. Romano has done that plenty of times this year in games that are not playoff games but had that atmosphere, and he still had trouble closing out Houston and had Judge take him deep and walk it off.

Cimber is not a pitcher you want in that type of high leverage situation.

It's tricky. After Romano, its clear that Garcia and Cimber are the next in line for the highest leverage innings out of the pen. Both have been undeniably good this year in those high leverage innings, but neither have a track record that would make you feel good about that success lasting and neither really has "swing and miss stuff". I'm not sure I'd bet on that lasting but I have no leg to stand on based on actual results this year.

Cimber is not a pitcher you want in that type of high leverage situation.

In other words:
When I use this term, I am not referring to an objective definition that is used to objectively measure this stat on widely-accepted websites. I'm referring a much more poorly defined-concept of situations which have "playoff atmospheres", in which I can then raise other people's failures or near failures in those situations to say that the person we are talking about is not likely to succeed.

Also, Jordan Romano has blown saves against the Yankees and Astros this year. Cimber didn't pitch in the game Romano lost against the Astros. In the game Romano blew against the Yankees, Cimber pitched a scoreless 7th inning.

Garcia is throwing the 2 seamer a lot more this year and it has been an effective pitch for him.  And he's cut his slider usage in half.  I think the change in pitch usage has been helpful.   

In 9 games Cimber has given up 1 run (team 4-5 in those games). In 2 games he gave up 3 (never 2, or 4+) with the Jays winning both. In 35 appearances he didn't give up any runs.

Now, in 6 of those 35 he did allow an inherited runner to score and in 1 he allowed 2 to score. In those 8 games the team was 7-1.

So when Cimber either gives up a run of his own or an inherited runner the team is 13-5. IE: when Cimber screws up the team still wins 72% of the time.

What about high pressure games vs potential playoff teams?

• Houston: April 23rd 1 IP 1 H 1 SO; April 30 1 IP 0 H/R/BB/SO; April 22nd 1 IP 0 H/R/BB 1 SO - clearly not an issue vs Houston
• NYY: May 3rd 1/3 IP 2 H 3 R 1 ER 0 BB 1 SO, came in tied, left behind by 2 in what would be a 9-1 loss. May 10th 1 IP 1 walk, 1 K, tied in 7th. May 2nd 1 IP 1 SO 8th inning tied game; April 11th 1 2/3 IP 1 SO. June 19th 1 IP 3 H 3 R/ER 1 BB 2 SO Jays down 1 when he came in, down 4 when he left, won 10-9. Apr 13th 1 IP 0's across the board.

I could go on but the point is he had issues vs NYY but was lights out vs Houston. It is all about proper usage. With the 2 new guys the Jays have more options and should be able to cut the issues down - Cimber often was used as a Swiss Army Knife - put him into whatever relief situation is needed. With more choices that aren't Thornton types he should be able to be more focused on a certain role.

Now, what does this mean? We have Closer: Romano. High pressure: Garcia/Mayza. Medium Pressure: Cimber/Bass/Pop. Low Pressure: Richards/Phelps. Obviously some shuffling there between roles, but that is what I expect going forward. Phelps will see more high pressure, Pop less I suspect. It'll all depend on where in the lineup things are. I suspect Pop will be up and down with others to make sure the Jays don't wear out the pen as needed.

Thomas, that’s exactly what I meant, for the person that had a hard time understanding the 2nd explanation, apparently…

There are still quite a few potentially available players out there.

Forgive me for not knowing you had a selective definition of meaningful innings that you used to exclude Cimber.

It's interesting how three people have gone through game logs and statistics to demonstrate how Cimber actually performs, which is generally quite well, and you have just posed rhetorical questions and made blanket statements.

They're relief pitchers. Anything can happen. The Blue Jays won their first World Series mainly because they got 18.1 innings of awesome relief pitching - the bullpen went 3-0, 0.49 - and while everyone remembers Henke and Ward from that team, the two guys who pitched the most in relief in the WS got most of their innings that season in the rotation. Two other guys had season ERAs over 4.00. Anything can happen. And probably will.

Is the trade deadline 5pm or 6pm?

6pm EDT

Does anyone else feel like Springer is destined of the IL as soon as the deadline passes?

Apparently there are two finalists for Thor: Tor and Phi

Jays should go big and snag Iglesias as well.

I would imagine that the playoffs start with a 3 game series with no days off.
What you don't need in those games is a 4th or 5th starter.
You don't want to to see those guys in a game without their proper warm up. 

You guys remember the series in Tampa in 2020?
Shoemaker once through the rotation and they lost on a triple given by Robbie Ray.
Then Ryu was terrible and it was over. 

Thomas, I hope this does not offend you, but since it is interesting to you and you keep pushing this, let me make this perfectly clear:

The original comment is simple. I don't trust that particular pitcher in a key spot in the game during the playoffs. Game logs from regular season games during 5th and 6th inning appearances does not demonstrate how Cimber actually performs DURING THE PLAYOFFS WITH THE GAME ON THE LINE or PITCHING MEANINGFUL INNINGS IN THE PLAYOFFS as the original comment says.

Simple as that. If you need clearer statements than that or want to continue to debate with me how accurate my own comments represent my own opinions then I'm afraid I can't grant you forgiveness you ask for. This is the part where I would normally insert a quote from Billy Madison but I'll forego that in the hopes you stop putting energy to try and defend yourself for accusing me of not being clear in my sentiment about Cimber. But if you insist I am happy to oblige.

The goals this year have to be #1 make the playoffs, #2 top wild card (thus 2 home games minimum), #3 win round 1, beyond that is gravy.

Syndergaard would help on the getting there, top wild card, but not in round 1 most likely as he'd be lined up for game 1 round 2 ideally (assuming no more than 1 day off between rounds, and going all 3 in round 1).

It is exciting that the Jays and Phillies are the final 2 for Syndergaard but we'll see in under 17 minutes.

Bidding wars are not great though if you are doing the bidding. I hope they dont pay too much

Especially bidding against DD, who loves to ship out prospects for MLB talent.

The Twins are having a good trade deadline: Mahle, Lopez, Fulmer

Looks like Philly won

Jays get 27-year-old Mitch White from LAD.

Jays have to be WS favourites now:)

Cimber has 3 playoff games to his career - 2018 and 2020. In 2018 he faced Houston twice once with a clean inning (5th down by 4), then allowing 1 run in 1 IP (9th in a blowout they lost 11-3). In 2020 he faced the Yankees going 2/3 IP 2 H 3 R 1 BB came in down 5 in the 7th so it really didn't matter much.

So Cimber hasn't had a pressure game in the playoffs, but has pitched in the playoffs.

Romano hasn't played in the playoffs. Same for Mayza & Richards. Garcia has 15 playoff games (mostly in 2021), allowed runs in 3 of those games, one he blew the lead in, another he got a loss in (2 in 2021, 1 in 2020). Also has a hold and a win in his appearances. Either Garcia was excellent or horrid (those 3 bad games he allowed 10 runs in 2 IP). Phelps only playoff experience was in 2012 with the Yankees and he did poor (3 games, runs allowed in 2 of the games 3 1/3 IP 3 R). For starters Manoah & Kikuchi haven't appeared in the playoffs, Berrios 3 times (3/4/5 IP 3/3/1 runs allowed), Gausman 6 times (16 IP 7 R just 1 start in 2021 5 1/3 IP 4 R), Stripling 12 games (9 2/3 IP 7 R - 5 from one appearance vs the miracle Cubs). Hrm. Not promising.

Basically those who have played in the playoffs haven't done that well. The pen guys have rarely seen pressure games outside of Garcia who should get the highest pressure outside of closing. Newbies: Bass has 1 game in 2020 (1 IP 0 H 0 R 2 BB 1 SO when Jays were down by 6), Pop hasn't played in the playoffs yet. And sadly no Syndergaard as the Phillies got him.

Jays are getting Mitchell White from the Dodgers.

Whit Merrifield to Jays

We're getting M. White, AND Whit M.?? Not confusing at all.

Didn't see that one coming.
Merrifield is a guy who can play several positions and hit lead--if he's vaccinated.

Wow Merrifield

For Castillo and Taylor. Great trade.

Jays giving up Samad Taylor and Max Castillo. Ouch

I’m not sure what Merrifield does for this roster? He was good defensively last year but he hasn’t hit since 2020. Weird

2.7 million salary in 2023 for Merrifield followed by 18 million in 2024. Likely spells a trade of Bichette in the summer.

Merrifield hit well in July: 132 wRC+

Two nothingburger deals and a trade for Merrifield that really doesn't make a ton of sense. Weird deadline for me.

Groshans has had only 806 ABs in his minor league career so far. So extremely injury prone but has done well with his strike zone control. His strike zone control in AAA this year is very good until you look at his terrible June and July.

Being injured is a common thing for him unfortunately. Has a minor/playable injury affected his June/July? We don't know.

A non contender like Miami can promote him immediately and not worry about their playoff hopes. This allows them & him to evaluate his ML results.

Basically if his health is fine and he still has no power then his value is low. But good health for him and Pearson for example would show high value based on their strengths.

That's a mutual option in 2024 with a $500k buyout so I wouldn't read too much into what it means for anyone other than the accountants.

Mitch White - an interesting one, seems to be a Stripling type - alternating between starting and relief, age 27 under control through 2027. No playoff experience. His relief games were all early in the season, then 10 straight starts. Last one was his only 6 IP one, allowed just 2 runs. His previous 3 were all 5+ IP, twice 0 ER, once 6 ER vs St Louis. Pre 2018 was a top 100 prospect, but with the Dodgers crazy pitching depth he didn't get a shot until 2020. Some minor league time every year (2 games this year).

Even odder is Whit Merrifield - a RH 2B/RF/CF/LF/1B who was an all-star last year but negative WAR this year. Tons of speed (174-41 SB-CS lifetime). He was unvaccinated for the Royals trip here but said he'd get the shot if he was traded to a contender. What is his role here though? Very odd.

Exactly John - I have zero idea what Merrifield's role on this team would be.

Assuming Merrifield decides to get vaccinated today, he still can't play in Toronto for two weeks. (Good time for a road trip.) It does make me wonder if there's some real concern about Springer's elbow.

Atlanta grabbed Iglesias. Nice move, AA.

Waiting for Espinal or Biggio trade to be announced as part of trade with BP help coming back.

<br>Taylor wasn't going to get a chance here, though I like his skill set so I don't care about him. I like Castillo though I don't think many outside of this site thought much of him. Don't care for Merrifoeld at all. Doesn't look like he can hit anymore and that whole extended no vax vacation is a pretty serious character issue for a pro athlete. I get it, but I don't want that attitude anywhere near a team I root for . I'm ambivent, Merrifield is an expensive bench player st this point. I liked the Miami trade much more,and I was pretty ambivalent about that too.

dalimon5 - agreed, that would make a ton of sense then. Otherwise I have to think Zimmer is gone with Merrifield taking over the Springer backup role. A slight upgrade but very expensive at the cost of Castillo and Taylor - I liked Castillo and felt he had real potential here. He'll get a shot in KC though.

"2.7 million salary in 2023 for Merrifield followed by 18 million in 2024. Likely spells a trade of Bichette in the summer."

Are you okay? What's the online equivalent of "blink twice if you are under duress"?

Merrifield makes a lot of sense. He can play all over the field including CF. He can replace Zimmer on the roster as another player who can cover Springer and also get plenty of starts at 2B.

Merrifield is lineup depth just like White is rotation depth.
The price for Merrifield is reasonable.
Looks like the price for White was Frasso and Moises Brito. 

2.7 million salary in 2023 for Merrifield followed by 18 million in 2024. Likely spells a trade of Bichette in the summer.

I would bet against a trade of Bichette in the summer of 2023. I will assume that is what is being referred to as the summer of 2022 is nearly over.

I'm not sure that Merrifield is better than either Espinal or Biggio - unless they are dealing one of them, I just don't get it. The cost wasn't huge so I can't see it as a huge issue but I just think its a very weird deal.

I don't love losing Frasso in the White trade. He was beginning to look like a really promising arm in a system without many.

We don't need him to start at 2B unless there is an injury.
They have to do this type of deal now since there is no trade possible later.

Merrifield is likely to not be as good as either Espinal or Biggio. But better than Zimmer or Tapia against LHP while Springer is out.

Someone on MLBTR wrote about Merrifield: “Good pick up for Toronto. BABIP is 60 points off his career avg but hard hit % and Exit Velo are still up to his career standards.”

And as I mentioned upthread, he has hit well over the last month.

He’s an interesting pickup. He should provide some helpful infield and outfield depth. His trade value would have been way higher a couple of years ago.

Frasso is a high risk prospect.
They acquired a lot of controllable pitching today.
More movement off the 40 roster incoming.

Zimmer just hadn’t turned out and I’m sure Springer is going to be on the IL for a couple weeks soon and this gives some depth. Whit’s had a poor season but 132 WRC in July will play well as a generalist OF backup. I don’t really want Tapia out ther more than he has been.

Mike I agree with that - that a pretty niche role though. Weird but not a big deal. I remain a bit perplexed about the strategy by the front office today.

Bah thats a legit garbage deadline performance.

Multiple actual interesting young talents given away for a bunch of bottom roster slop that might not even be an upgrade.

Concur, Thomas. Thumbs down on Frasso for White. Not wildly impressed with the dealine moves if this is the sum total.

Yeah, I'm also thinking it's Springer Insurance, with a good deal of positional flexibility, speed, and some decent hitting over the past month. The cost was nominal, too.

The front office is sticking to its guns, for better or worse. They’re clearly trying to contend *and* build/maintain a robust farm system at the same time.

Merrifield is weird. A guy who left a lot of money on the table to sign an extension with a bad KC team.
Royals refused to trade him at any price for many years.
He's a right handed Ben Zobrist type.

Multiple interesting players lost? I see one, Frasso. Everyone else looks to be AAAA types.

Apparently Merrifield's contract is weird because it was restructured halfway through to move guaranteed salary from 2023 to 2022, which the Royals wanted to do.

For some reason I haven't figured out yet, Dayton Moore decided to add that very weird option during the restructuring. I assume it was just a way to pay $500,000 in 2024 and that was Merrifield's bonus for agreeing to the restructuring or something.

Also, Merrifield will get $4 million in 2023 (unless he spends greater than 110 days on the Injured List this year, which he won't).

Frasso for White is somewhat reminiscent of Williams for Stripling. We’ll see how it looks in a few years.

"Everyone else looks to be AAAA types."

You mean the guys we traded for, right?

I'm really not sure that the team is much better today than yesterday. The roster has more flexibility. Which, I guess is a good thing, but didn't really feel like a problem yesterday. I think Frasso is potentially the most talented piece moved today either way. Weird.

The only big hole to patch they had was the bullpen. Which they did.
They got rotation depth and position depth which gives them great odds at sticking to the playoffs.

The system still looks better now than before the draft.

It looks like the sold high on Castillo and Frasso.

Jays shouldn't care about Merrifield's salary.
They did some of their winter work today.

The transaction page says that Alex De Jesus (2B) came with White.

White is Stripling trade 2.0. Everyone who loved prospects hated that trade then. Well Williams hasn’t done anything and Stripling has been invaluable. It’s likely Frasso never gets to what White is. Pop is better than Groshans and no one in the Whit trade matters much. Castillo clearly showed he just didn’t have the stuff to play in the majors.

Seems like a doing something for the sake of doing something kind of performance by the FO - think I may have preferred doing nothing. Some of the young players lost may not have had a 40 man spot this winter so that is a consideration.

Frasso for White is somewhat reminiscent of Williams for Stripling. We’ll see how it looks in a few years.

For sure. Stripling had about four times the major league innings, and major league starts, so I liked that deal much more at the time, but the benefit here is the Jays will have more control over White if he can play that role effectively.

I think we're a slightly better team, but it feels marginal compared to what our opponents have done, and we've gotten rid of some decent prospects to make such a marginal effort. Don't get me wrong, I don't think Castillo will be a star, but if the goal is starter depth, he was fitting the bill already and looked good when he was called up, once he settled down.

We do seem to trade a lot of our interesting arms fairly quickly. If we're looking for back-end bullpen cheese, Frasso is one of the arms that might fit that perfectly and be ready by next year.

This is probably my one gripe with the FO - we often trade decent prospects for minor upgrades, which leaves us in a position of not having enough to offer for 'big' trades.

At the end of the day - a bunch of boring, minor moves which result in a shrug state of mind.

I don't hate any of the deals. But beyond providing some flexibility and some insurance they all mostly feel pointless to me. I'll repeat - just a weird deadline day for me.

Couple of years ago the Royals could have gotten quality prospects for Whit Merrifield - held on to him too long.

A very disappointing day. Considering what every other AL team currently in a playoff position did to improve their roster (besides injury-decimated Tampa) it feels like the Jays' FO just spent the day rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

I kind of liked Max Castillo and thought he was better than an AAAA type. Merrifield will probably get most of his playing time in the outfield because Springer's arm looks ready to fall off. The thing that worries me is that if a starter goes down, who is going to replace him? White?

Today, they dropped Banda and recalled Gage.
That's all there is.

It looks like they tried to sell high on Gage but nobody took the bait because of his age.

Later, Bass becomes the 7th inning guy, pushing Mayza, Cimber, Phelps, Pop and Richards to middle relief.
Thornton probably goes back to AAA.
That looks pretty solid to me.

Maybe Merrifield replaces Zimmer?

Yankees dealt Jordan Montgomery for Harrison Bader and a PTBNL.

This seems like a subtraction from their current roster. The Yankees are obviously making the playoffs, and they have five starters (Cole, Montas, Cortes, Taillon, German), with Severino out and Montgomery gone, anyway, so maybe Bader feels a more immediate need for them, but I was surprised by this move.

It will be interesting to see the team's reaction to all of this. I'd be surprised if there wasn't some level of disappointment at the day's results. Whether warranted or not, it sure looks on paper like the Jays lost ground in the arms race today.

It sounds as if the Jays just didn’t have the Tier 2 prospects to get some of the players they wanted (Castillo or Montas or Quintana or Thor or Rodon).

I probably should be more disappointed with the outcome than I am. I’m willing to see how the team does with these additions. I’m pleased the team is trying to be good both in the short term and in the long term.

Actually, no. Trading for a position player would have been rearranging the chairs.
The guys they have are good enough.  Worse hitter is Espinal.

They added 2 good pitchers and dropped some bad ones. That's very significant.
They added a starter with a good ERA who doesn't push Stripling or Kikuchi out if they pitch well.

Now anybody who doesn't perform can be demoted or sent to the bench.

So which of the new guys slots higher than middle relief or deep bench foe us?

Improving defense at Catcher and shortstop payed for them.
Now they are trying the same in CF so they can send Judge back to RF.
Stanton is on the shelf and will probably be limited to DH.

Ask again in a week.

Underwhelming but filled the team needs getting a better bullpen and another Stripling-like pitcher and getting offensive depth.

I'm not that disappointed as the jays added some help to the BP, the area of most need - As long as Manoah, Berrios and Gausman are healthy and throwing well heading into the postseason the Jays will have a fighting chance - I'm going to be very happy if the Yankees & Padres don't make deep playoff runs.

Why do we need to upgrade the lineup or top 3 starters? No SP traded was better than our top 3 and very few of the hitters traded would have replaced one of our lineup. The issues with this team were relief pitching, getting a reliable swingman better than Castillo and backup OF. They dealt with them all. Would I have minded another RP? Sure but I think we got two solid relievers there.

For me, this was all too risk averse. You can say that you want to win now and over the longer term but that isn't the way success curves work and the Jays have never shown a willingness to outspend the success curve. The window is now and over the next 2-3 years. And the prospect pool doesn't look strong enough to keep supplying elite bid league talent to sustain a longer run. I'd have invested more heavily in winning now and trading prospects to do so. But that's just me.

I’m sure they would have considered that more if the division wasn’t out of reach. I don’t think you move all in for a wild card spot. We already did our big trades in last year with Berrios and in the off season with Chapman. Both have turned out well and I don’t see why they need to trade even more from an obviously depleted system. It’s not that they haven’t done big trades they clearly have done two in the last year. They don’t have to do more to appease fans.

I understand what you're saying about win curve Nigel, I just think there are two o other factors here 1) expanded playoffs mean pushing chips in on shorter windows makes less sense. It's more of a crapshoot than ever. 2) Upgrading for the Jays was difficult because they are pretty stacked everywhere except bullpen and a backend starter. Other positions were pretty hard to upgrade. You just never really want to be trading top prospects for relievers who are unreliable. I also don't think window for winning is 2-3 years. Kirk, Vlad, Bo, Manoah, Gausman, and Berrios are all longer term than that.

Atkins just said that Merrifield will work out his vax status with his family

I actually view the impact of the expanded playoffs exactly the opposite of that. I understand that baseball playoffs are a crapshoot under any circumstance but I think the expanded playoffs mean that its much much more likely that they Jays will be some form of playoff team in each of the next few years - so invest now to give yourself the best shot in those years. As for the window, I guess it depends on your view of the likelihood of the Jays buying out some free agent years of Vladdy, Bo etc. I don't think that is particularly likely so, again, I think it places a premium on the now.

All of that thinking has rebuttals that may well be right.

I very much dislike this Merrifield deal on its face. I liked what I saw from Castillo at the MLB level just fine. But if they haven't even confirmed whether Merrifield is even getting vaccinated? Outrageous.

The deal for White I wasn't in love with but the longer I look the more I'm ok with it. De Jesus isn't nothing for a sweetener.

Bass is having a huge year and Pop looks promising too. I like this one a fair bit.

Honestly, it was an awkward deadline period. When it came to available players (non Soto division) there really wasn't any star names out there that I'm losing sleep over. Montas? Castillo? Yeah they'd be nice I guess, but given the costs I'm happy to take my chances with the rotation as it is.

But man get out of here with this Merrifield deal, blech.

I very much dislike this Merrifield deal on its face. I liked what I saw from Castillo at the MLB level just fine. But if they haven't even confirmed whether Merrifield is even getting vaccinated? Outrageous.
Yeah I'm in the actively disliking this. Apparently he hasn't gotten vaxxed yet. So 2 weeks earliest. If he doesn't get vaxxed put him on the restricted list. But also Atkins should get some grief.
This was a bad trade deadline.

If they've signed up for a Kyrie Irving scenario with Whitfield that would be pretty stupid.

Man - let me try that again - Merrifield.

I was out this afternoon and missed all the excitement? It was exciting right?

The Marlins trade is a bit of a meh trade for me. This was the year Groshans was due to show some power and he hasn't and his bat has cooled since the start of the season so it seems like the Jays were unable to get Groshans to do what they wanted him to do. Let him try somewhere else.

The Merrifield trade is OK, bit of a win now trade while giving up some potential future value.

I was interested in the White trade. It seems to me that the Jays were unable to meet the asking price of a lot of the other deals (more on that in a (minute). I wasn't thrilled to see Frasso traded. He throws hard from the left side and was a riser in the system this year. The Moises/De Jesus part was interesting to see who rated higher. Brito is a 20 year old pitcher in his first year in the DSL. He is pitching well but this seems to be his first pro season so he is a bit of a late bloomer. De Jesus is a 20 year old in high A. He was promoted recently from low A. So he should head to Vancouver and play third base there, with some shortstop. Bottom line, the Jays got more than White back in the deal. De Jesus was the 43rd Dodger prospect per Fangraphs. Writeup to follow.

While De Jesus had been in the “shortstop trending toward third base” bucket during the earliest portion of his pro career, he is now firmly a third base-only defender for us. Eric once compared his frame to Manny Machado’s but now De Jesus is already bigger than Manny, and still just 20 years old. That means that managing the swing-and-miss issues that have been a problem for stretches of his career is now extremely important. Still, De Jesus has so much strength and power that even if he continues to trend down the defensive spectrum, one can envision him playing a role in the Bobby Dalbec/Matt Davidson mold, an extreme power-over-hit corner bat who can give you 30 annual homers if you’re willing to live with all the strikeouts.

That Merrifield comment is concerning, but I assume they had *some* inkling as to what he'd do before pulling the trigger and Merrifield would announce on his own terms. If not...yikes.

Bullpen is certainly interesting - only Phelps is a UFA at the end of the season. I at least feel we're in a position not to have to spend wildly on bullpen arms for next year, but bullpens can change in a hurry.

Could Merrifield only play road games?

When Shapiro and Atkins came aboard they emphasized development of the minor league system as a key plank of their approach. As we have seen this deadline, the farm is not as strong as it should be.

The Jays have not drafted well. In 2016 it was Zeuch and Woodman as the top two picks. In 2017 it was Warmoth and Pearson. In 2018 Groshans and Conine. In 2019 Manoah and Kendall Williams. In 2020 Martin and Van Eyk.

That's your top ten draft picks over five seasons and it looks like one solid major leaguer. The draft is a lottery but the Jays should have had five solid players from their top two picks over five years.

If you look at the top five picks over five years, 25 picks total, you have Manoah and Bichette as major leaguers.

Then when you add that the development efforts have not been exceptional either, it paints a picture of a "not as good as they wanted to be" system.

The Jays were successful with Vladdy and Bo and their success has blinded us to the failures elsewhere in the system.

I think the inability to pursue meaningful trades this deadline is a sign of poor drafting and development and there should be some tough questions asked of Shapiro and Atkins.

Absolutely right Gerry - without the success of the international free agent signings the system would be a disaster.

Gerry, another way to look at those 5 drafts is that they've produced the following: 50% of our starting rotation, 3 regulars, 2 in the pen.

2016 - Bichette & Biggio
2017 - Chapman: Smith, Logue
2018 - Pop, Bass, Villar: Groshans, Connine
2019 - Manoah + Stirling: Williams
2020 - Martin (~Berrios)

"If you look at the top five picks over five years, 25 picks total, you have Manoah and Bichette as major leaguers."

I think 2 all-stars in 5 years especially with only 1 high pick is actually better than average. Vast majority of first rounders don't make any impact in the majors and vast majority after that don't make the majors. If you're expecting to hit on a solid major leaguer every year, you're going to be disappointed.

3 things comes to mind here.

1. They've drafted and developed much better than previous front offices. It's not even close.

2. Are the results really that bad? Who has the Yankees drafted and developed in that interval? Clarke Schmidt with Volpe still on the way? Isn't Espinal the best player drafted by Boston in that interval? (In the 10th round).

3. Things changed 2 years ago when Shane Farrell became the scouting director. The results for those last years looks pretty good to me. So much so that we lament the trade of a 4th rounder who isn't even rated highly.

Depends on how you grade things. Top 5 rounds only.

• Gillick: horrid draft, amazing trades/scrap heap/Rule 5 legend - 0 reached 1977; 1978 Lloyd Moseby (round 1), Dave Stieb (round 5 as an OF), 1979 flop (3rd overall pick didn't reach); 1980 not a single player drafted even got a cup of coffee; 1981 John Cerutti the only pick to do anything of note (6th starter basically); 1982 great draft David Wells round 2, Jimmy Key round 3, Pat Borders round 6 but wasted the 2nd overall pick on Augie Schmidt instead of taking Dwight Gooden (grrr!!!!);1983 flop; 1984 Greg Myers not bad for round 2; 1985 flop; 1986 5th round Pat Hentgen; 1987 Derek Bell 2nd round, Mike Timlin 5th; 1988 finally a good first rounder in Ed Sprague, 3rd in David Weathers; 1989 John Olerud in the 3rd; 1990: Steve Karsay in the 1st (very good reliever); 1991: Shawn Green (1st), Chris Stynes (decent OF) 3rd; 1992: Shannon Stewart (1st); 1993: Chris Carpenter (1st); 1994: flop (appropriate for his final draft). Late Gillick did great with first rounds, but from 1977-1990 only Moseby & Ed Sprague did anything for guys drafted in the first round (despite having top 5 picks often).
• Ash: Had a great draft guy, lousy at everything else. 1995: Roy Halladay, 1996: Billy Koch; 1997: Vernon Wells; 1998: Felipe Lopez (made an All-Star game); 1999: Alex Rios; 2000: Dustin McGowan (slowing badly here); 2001: flop - basically every year he got a very good first round pick - how did the Jays stay so mediocre despite that? Oh yeah, Ash sucked big time at trades.
• JPR: came with good moneyball credentials but flopped. 2002-2008 only Aaron Hill had 10+ WAR (Ricky Romero at 9.9)
• AA: was great at finding loopholes. A few good first rounders (Marcus Stroman, Joe Musgrove, Aaron Sanchez, Noah Syndergaard, James Paxton (didn't sign)) but nothing amazing.
• Atkins: Alek Manoah the only 'wow' first rounder so far, Pearson looks like a flop and Zeuch wasn't much (sold to the Cardinals who later released him, now with the Reds).

Yeah, I got lazy and cut back to just 1st rounders mid-way. Was just taking too long to do.

Shapiro and Atkins have never drafted particularly well. You can go back to Shapiro’s time in Cleveland to see a longer track record. Shapiro’s career and reputation is, I think, heavily weighted by being the beneficiary of the Montreal fire sale panning out better than anyone could have dreamed.

I’m a fan of their drafts and what they’ve done with the players, especially when compared to other front offices past and present.

This is where I'm at. Atkins likes to trade lottery tickets for marginal upgrades. I'd rather just keep the tickets. Surely a couple of them could have been developed into bullpen depth/ AAAA SP, which is what we need year after year.

I think Atkins has been great in free agency, but his trades are often too cute by half.

I'm not sure what trades you are referring to but Akins has traded lottery tickets for Ross Stripling, Jose Berrios and Matt Chapman. Some of these lottery tickets may indeed develop down the road but these three players are playing in the majors and are not what I would call marginal upgrades.

Agreed Island Boy. Lets look at his trades...

• Ben Revere for Drew Storen and cash - his first trade was dull as dishwater. Revere was -0.9 WAR the rest of his career (2 seasons), Storen was -0.5 WAR in the Jays pen over part of a season before being traded for Joaquin Benoit who was 1.4 WAR over the rest of 2016 then left via free agency.
• Sean Ratcliffe (never reached majors - just 1 pro inning left in him) for Jason Grilli (net 0 WAR, +0.6 in 2016 when it mattered) - a typical marginal deal like we are talking about today.
• Hansel Rodriguez (never reached) for B.J. Upton (-0.4 WAR) and cash.
• Jesse Chavez for Mike Bolsinger (oops)
• Drew Hutchison to the Pittsburgh Pirates. Received Francisco Liriano, Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez. AN excellent trade to put it mildly. Liriano helped in 2016, McGuire was important last year, Ramirez later developed for the Rays.
• 2 days after that signed Gabriel Moreno as a free agent
• Lots of minor trades that first year where no one did anything, but was trying to fill holes in a chase to a wild card.
• 2017 saw the Francisco Liriano for Nori Aoki and Teoscar Hernandez deal. Dang, Liriano was a gift that kept giving wasn't he?
• Same day Joe Smith traded for Samad Taylor and Thomas Pannone. Taylor of course was part of the deals yesterday.
• That winter Traded J.B. Woodman (never made it) for Aledmys Díaz (2.1 WAR here, 4.2 since), flipped a year later for Trent Thornton.
• Conner Greene (negative WAR lifetime) and Dominic Leone (1.4 WAR over 5 seasons since) for Randal Grichuk (4.4 WAR here, dumped for Tapia, negative WAR in Colorado).
• PTBNL or cash for Gio Urshela - would've been a 'WOW' deal if he didn't dump Urshela for cash from the Yankees a few months later. DOH!
• Steve Pearce and cash for Santiago Espinal. Pearce helped the Sox to the WS title that year, Espinal has been excellent here - a perfect deadline deal all around.
• J.A. Happ for Brandon Drury and Billy McKinney. A reminder to never deal for Yankee prospects.
• Seunghwan Oh for Chad Spanberger (never reached) and Forrest Wall (same) and Bryan Baker (1 IP here, lost on waivers)
• Roberto Osuna for Ken Giles, David Paulino and Hector Perez - pretty good for damaged goods. If Giles hadn't been hurt so much it would've been a great deal.
• John Axford for Corey Copping (never reached)
• Aaron Loup for Jacob Waguespack.
• Josh Donaldson and cash for Julian Merryweather - sent away a hurt guy got a guy who is always hurt.
• Curtis Granderson for Demi Orimoloye (never reached)
• Russell Martin and cash for Ronny Brito and Andrew Sopko (neither reached)
• Kendrys Morales and cash for Jesus Lopez and IFA slot space.

Phew. Getting tired going through all of these. Bottom line - our current GM LOVES to make trades. He isn't a 'stand Pat' guy. Lots of lottery tickets back in the 16-18 time frame and more in 2019. His biggest ones were probably for IFA slot space (used to help get Vlad among others). I suspect if we ever get an International Draft with trading allowed he'd trade for picks like mad. You can see here how often he dealt for guys who never reached the majors but the lottery tickets did produce Espinal and Teoscar Hernandez and Reese McGuire. Sadly going for what seemed like more refined, almost ready prospects didn't work out as well (Drury/McKinney). Still I have trouble complaining. Lottery tickets are just that - crapshoots. If your pro-scouts are good you might find a few more diamonds than others, but minor leaguers are always a massive risk.