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When you've lost 9 of 10, you need to draw a line somewhere. But where?

Let's ask the Captain.



That's right. This far and no further.

Kevin Gausman won't make the start tonight - maybe tomorrow, they say - but yesterday's off day (at last!) means the team can just roll out their regular rotation for the next four days if necessary. The only point to having Gausman start tomorrow is it would allow him to make two starts before the All-Star Break. I expect they'll decide to hold him back until Saturday. There's been no word as we went to press (whatever!) on the status of Danny Jansen - they were waiting for him to get comfortable at the plate, and he did hit a home run for Buffalo on Sunday. Which suggests a certain level of comfort has been reached.

The Phillies have been playing .667 ball (24-12) since Joe Girardi walked the plank, despite losing their best player and the reigning NL MVP to a thumb fracture that will keep him out of the lineup for at least another month, if not longer. Bryce Harper had been limited to appearing as the DH because of a shoulder problem, but he was having another magnificent year with the bat until Blake Snell caught him on the thumb. Harper doesn't turn 30 until October, and he has a chance to put up some pretty interesting career numbers. Harper is quite a bit like Ted Williams, except Harper's just a .280 hitter (Williams hit .344 for his career.) Harper will now have had two seasons shortened significantly by injury, and another by a global pandemic  These things, along with the enormous number of walks he takes, make it unlikely that Harper will make it to 3,000 hits. Williams came up short as well. Williams, of course, lost almost an entire season with a broken elbow and broke his collarbone a couple of years later. He also went off to war, twice.  But Harper should cruise to 500 home runs, and has a real chance to go well beyond Williams' 521 and make a run at  600 career homers, territory reached by just nine men so far.

The Philies will have four players on the COVID restricted list because they haven't been vaccinated:  catcher J.T. Realmuto, third baseman Alec Bohm, and starters Aaron Nola and Kyle Gibson. Gibson suffers from ulcerative colitis and takes a number of medications to deal with it. They compromise his body's capacity to build up antibodies. The Phillies can't replace Nola on the roster (he pitched Monday); they can replace Gibson for Wednesday's game only.

Andrew Bellatti is the listed starter for the Phillies tonight. He's a relief pitcher, and this is going to be another bullpen game for the Phillies, their second in three days. This had been Bailey Falter's spot, filling in for Ranger Suarez,  the last couple of times through the rotation. The Phillies, thinking ahead, optioned Falter to Triple A last week because he isn't vaccinated. But Suarez will be on the IL for the rest of the week.

Matchups

Tue 12 July - Berrios (6-4, 5.44)  vs Bellatti (1-3, 3.14)
Wed 13 July - Stripling (4-3, 3.34)  vs Wheeler (8-4, 2.46)
Philadelphia at Toronto, July 12-13 | 172 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Cracka - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#417089) #
I learned something new today about IL rules: "The maximum an IL stint can be backdated is three days, even if a player hasn't appeared in a game for longer than that."

Gausman last appeared July 2nd and under the old rules could have been backdated to July 3rd if he couldn't make his next start. But if he were played on the IL today, it would only be retroactive to July 9th and the earliest he could return is July 24th (the Sunday after the all-star break). So it seems like there's very little chance of an IL placement at this point... even though this is the 10th day since he's pitched. Hopefully, he's ready to go soon and this doesn't matter - but it's another wrinkle in the rules that makes things more complicated to juggle pitchers.
jerjapan - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 03:08 PM EDT (#417092) #
Fun series over at Blue Jays nation on the drafting of the 'Shapiro era'. 

The first two picks were Zeuch and Woodman.  After that, the track record is impressive.  Manoah, Bichette, Biggio, Tiedman, Groshans and Pearson lead the way, along with a ton of trade capital.  the entire package for Chapman was drafted under Shapiro if i recall correctly, along with loads of smaller deals. 

Logan Warmoth is the only other really big miss.  The org has learned - no more safe first round picks. 

i do pull for Warmoth though, the guy has reinvented himself as a 4th OF type as it is his only path to the bigs.  He got his signing bonus as a 1st rounder at SS, but he just keeps on grinding his way up the ladder. 

Am I right to say that this FO has done an objectively good job overall on the drafting front?  I know some of you guys follow the minors and other systems more closely than I do!
John Northey - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 03:53 PM EDT (#417094) #
No question in my mind the current team has done well on drafting. Even though it is hard to measure until at least 5 years have passed normally.
  • 2016: Bo Bichette (more WAR than any first round pick even though he was a second rounder), Cavan Biggio the big 2, then a few others who reached (Zach Jackson, Josh Winckowski, T.J. Zeuch, Josh Palacios, Kirby Snead)
  • 2017: Riley Adams, Ty Tice, Zach Logue are the positive WAR guys, then super prospect/super injured Nate Pearson, Kevin Smith. This is the 'good enough to trade' group. Used to get Brad Hand (Adams), $$ (Tice), Chapman (Logue/Smith with others). Still some realistic prospects there too (Hagen Danner moved to pitching from catching for example).
  • 2018: Nick Allgeyer, Vinny Capra are the only ones to reach so far, but Jordan Groshans is still a top 100 prospect, and Griffin Conine was used in a trade for Jonathan Villar.
  • 2019: Alek Manoah - need more be said? Well, Kendall Williams was part of the trade for Ross Stripling, Spencer Horwitz was picked in round 24 (306/415/533 in AA/AAA so far, and now excellent trade bait I figure).
  • 2020: the short draft - Austin Martin, CJ Van Eyk, Trent Palmer, Nick Frasso, and Zach Britton. Martin a key part of the Berrios trade, Palmer looking good (#23 on the Jays prospect list), Eyk #8 on the Jays prospect list, Frasso has a 0.71 ERA over 29 2/3 IP this year, and Britton is hitting 229/370/423 in A+.
  • 2021: no one has made it yet, but Gunnar Hoglund traded as part of the Chapman trade, Tiedemann is looking damn good, etc.
That looks like a very nice record so far. We'll see how it goes over the next few years before we know for sure though.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 04:06 PM EDT (#417095) #
Danny Jansen in Toronto and in the starting lineup tonight. Kirk is the DH.
bpoz - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 05:12 PM EDT (#417096) #
Moreno was optioned to Buffalo. I feel bad for him. I thought somehow he would stay up. But this way he can play everyday.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 07:00 PM EDT (#417098) #
There wasn't much question at this point that Moreno would be the guy sent down when Jansen came back - just not enough PA for a 3rd catcher when that catcher is a kid. Collins has been up awhile but only had 1 game in July and 1 in late June since being called up. June 19th was his last minor league game, so a total of 1 PA in 2 games since then. With a minor league vet who is a marginal ML at best you can do that, but not with a super prospect - especially when he hit just 276/300/293 while in the majors. In his 18 games he hit 379/400/414 over the first 9, then 172/200/172 over the last 9. A bit of success then a bit of failure - good for a kid to experience. Now he has to learn from it and be ready when/if Jansen or Kirk gets hurt again. If he kept hitting like he did those first 9 the Jays would've had to find a way to get him into the lineup.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#417099) #
I'd say that went better than the last time Berrios pitched to Jansen.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#417100) #
Teoscar could use remedial sliding lessons.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#417101) #
You're not supposed to make the first or third out at third base, but this is a really bad defensive outfield. I'd challenge them to make a play every chance I get.
Dr. Zarco - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#417103) #
I’m not able to watch today (I’m 6 time zones behind this week and still at work!) but Berrios has 10 swing and misses through just 3 and a third, which is a great sign. I presume his stuff looks good. Really nice to see him bouncing back. Hopefully it continues. Jays are pretty screwed if he continues and ERA of 5+.
Mike Green - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#417104) #
Why would you challenge when your first baseman visibly is telling the world that the runner is safe?  Maybe I'm thick, but this seems monumentally foolish. 
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#417105) #
What was the fielding error by Guerrero Jr.? I’m not watching the game at the moment.
dalimon5 - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#417106) #
Berrios was tipping pitches with his mouth/breathing so now Walker has him wearing a mouth guard and he’s dealing.

Vlad failed to touch first base with his foot on a strikeout by Berrios where the batter ran to first. Jansen through the ball and Vlad caught it, planted his foot parallel but not touching the bag and the inning continued. Vlad signalled a save sign to the bench so they would not challenge, but they likely already challenged before that.

He can be sloppy at 1B and I don’t like how he was signalling his disappointment with the team after that play. Cover the bag, get the job done.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#417107) #
What was the fielding error by Guerrero Jr.?

Throw down to first base after a third strike. Guerrero missed the base with his foot.
lexomatic - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#417108) #
Not a good game for Guerrero. 3 Ks in what is currenrtly a tie game with that error is not really gonna do it.
Chuck - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#417109) #
The Phillies are playing pylons in the outfield corners.
Kasi - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#417110) #
I see a bit too much of Prince Fielder in Vlad. Great talent but body is going to wear down fast. He’ll have good seasons but I don’t think he’ll ever get back to what he was last year. And when injuries and age sao his bat speed he’ll go downhill fast.
greenfrog - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#417111) #
Thanks for the report.

The Jays could really use some lower-stress games.
Magpie - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 09:50 PM EDT (#417112) #
I see a bit too much of Prince Fielder in Vlad. Great talent but body is going to wear down fast.

I certainly expected Fielder to break down early but it's not really what happened to him. Fielder's demise was much more like Kelly Gruber's, a chronic neck injury that's hard to link to the 280 pounds or so he was lugging around.

The elite hitter who truly did break down because of the weight he was carrying was Frank Thomas, and he stayed durable through age 32 and productive (when he could play) through age 39.
uglyone - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#417113) #
Win!
John Northey - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#417114) #
Good point Magpie. Most hitters stop being productive around age 32 anyways, but bulk doesn't help I'm sure. I see Vlad being a pure DH at some point in the not as distant future as we'd all like it to be. I see Kirk being a (at best) 50-50 C/DH. The day will come where the Jays can't keep both on the team, no idea how they'll deal with it. Odds are one of them will leave via free agency thus making the issue moot as I hope Vlad can be mainly at 1B for at least 5 more years.

Boog Powell is another big guy (230 lbs listed but I suspect more) who had his last great year at 28, then a few very solid years, then a final 'wow' at 33 (154 OPS+ over 134 games) then done (145 games over 2 years, 90 OPS+). I'm sure we could find a lot more. Bottom line is if you are big but can hit homers you can last a long time, especially with the DH around.

Basically the Jays shouldn't count on Vlad past his age 32 season if they sign him long term, but nor should they count on anyone past that age. Springer is working out so far, but this is his age 32 season and the Jays really need to find a new CF so he can play in RF after this year and save some wear and tear.
John Northey - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 10:42 PM EDT (#417115) #
Low stress and Blue Jays don't go together it seems. One just has to accept that and enjoy what we get. The weird ways the Jays can lose, the fun when they do a comeback, etc. Vlad will have a book about his year (2 balls through his glove, missing 1B on an easy play, and more to come I'm sure).
Magpie - Tuesday, July 12 2022 @ 11:32 PM EDT (#417116) #
the Jays shouldn't count on Vlad past his age 32 season

His age 32 season is 2031, and I'm pretty sure he'll be worth having around. Guerrero's a much better athlete than either Fielder or Thomas. He will definitely have to work at managing his body, but at least that's an option for him. Fielder and Thomas were both basically stuck with what they had been given.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:13 AM EDT (#417117) #
I love VGJ but I think his twenties are likely to be much better than his thirties. He’s a big player with a violent swing and he already has chronic wrist issues at age 23. I think he could end up having significant physical/injury issues relatively early in his career.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 05:22 AM EDT (#417118) #
his twenties are likely to be much better than his thirties.

Agreed, but mostly because that's true of practically everybody, whether they're built like Vlad or not. It's almost a Law. Oddly enough, three notable exceptions played here - Molitor, Bautista, Encarnacion.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 05:39 AM EDT (#417119) #
Doesn’t Vlad have one of the most complicated swings in baseball? It’s been said many times by players and analysts that he has more moving parts than anybody else and the reason it works for him and nobody else is because of his godly speed. As he ages and that speed regresses then it should follow that he will have more issues with his swing. It will all come down to how strong he is mentally to stay in shape and make adjustments. This season hasn’t been good when it comes to adjustments to make to the league. Ever since he demolished that Cole home run he’s been a hitter who seems to be guessing or chasing.
scottt - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 06:29 AM EDT (#417120) #
In my mind, the 3rd catcher should be groomed to pitch in blow out.  Danner would be excellent in that role.
scottt - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 06:41 AM EDT (#417121) #
Vlad has a nagging wrist issue, but the problem is that's he's too aggressive and chasing pitches.
Hitting in front to Kirk should help eventually.

Vlad was upset with the weird challenge until the Jays scored another run.
The fly out by Espinal could have been reviewed otherwise as the ball clearly hit the net.

Phillies also made a challenge on a play that wasn't close.
The manager seemed to tap his chest and say "my bad" after the quick review.

Next game could be harder.

I suppose they get a starter and push Stripling back to the pen but he's been really good as a 5 inning starter, so might not help at all. Key get for me is another hard throwing reliever since Merryweather/Pearson/Danner all flamed out.

Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 08:07 AM EDT (#417122) #
In my mind, the 3rd catcher should be groomed to pitch in blow out.

You're worrying about this too much. This team doesn't fall behind by six runs often enough to have someone on the roster for that specific role.

Anyone else notice that Vlad hasn't drawn a base on balls since June 28? He's drawn 11 walks in the last month (Kirk moved into the cleanup spot on June 12) and 4 of them were in the 6 games when Hernandez was hitting behind him. A little weird. I think it's mostly him hacking, guessing wrong.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 08:31 AM EDT (#417123) #
The Jays are 1.5 games behind TB who is 3rd in the AL. TB is on pace to win 88 games and Houston on pace to win 108 games. We seem to be in good shape as we compete for a playoff spot and also 3rd in the AL.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#417124) #
It's certainly odd that the team has a better record (13-5) when Berrios starts than when it's either Manoah (10-7) or Gausman (8-8), but this is a funny game. The only other starter that the team has a winning record behind is Ryu (4-2). They break even with Stripling (6-6) and lose with the rest: Kikuchi (5-11) obviously, and they've lost the single games started by Castillo, Hatch, and Banda.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#417125) #
Every team in the AL East is .500 or better and the Orioles are only 2 games behind the Jays - the Orioles may not be sellers anymore.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 10:01 AM EDT (#417126) #
Joey Votto and Castillo makes too much sense. Find a way to open the DH spot. Before anyone shows red flags with Votto, the attraction of including him and his salary is strictly to a) get ahead of the other suitors for Castillo who are less likely to want to absorb salary and b) lowers prospect capital of any is needed at all and finally c) there is more upside in Votto’s bat as a left handed and former elite player…he was in top 5 in 2nd half of last year in of baseball I think. He’s got no protection in the Reds line up right now.

I’d trade Kirk for a too young talent like Corbin Carrol or similar if there is a trade like that out there for a player ready to contribute now.
Hodgie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#417127) #
You aren't the only one Magpie, noticed that a couple of games ago and he is now up to 14 games and counting without a walk. I wonder if his wrist is now affecting him to the point where he feels he needs to guess/cheat.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:14 PM EDT (#417129) #
Montoyo fired, per Ken Rosenthal.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#417130) #
Didn't see that coming.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#417131) #
I’m floored and disappointed. I liked him a lot and it was clear he didn’t have a bullpen or LHB.

Gives more power to Vladdy and Bo which I don’t like.

This front office needs to take blame and field a MLB calibre bullpen.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:17 PM EDT (#417132) #
Schneider favourite to take over?
Gerry - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:23 PM EDT (#417133) #
Fired after a win...that's unusual.

I wonder how much Vlad looking lost at the plate played into it.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#417134) #
Team attends a funeral for a 17 year old on Tuesday. Manager fired next day.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#417135) #
This could have been done last August (as I and many other on here, after it was abundantly clear his managerial decisions were costing the team wins, and I suspect only continued as the skipper because of the hot finish. The team still underachieved.

As I said at the time, he was the perfect manager to get them through the early rebuild but it was clear last year they needed a guy who can get them to the next level.

Bruce Bochy would be an excellent choice.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:30 PM EDT (#417136) #
I didn't see that coming either although the players were not, as a whole, performing as well as the FO had a right to expect (flawed as the design and updating of the roster were and have been).  UO did say a few days ago something like "Montoyo on the hot seat?".

Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:34 PM EDT (#417137) #
I'm shocked. I thought Tapia was the designated scapegoat.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#417138) #
Are they bringing back Gibbons!?!? /S
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#417139) #
Nah. CIto.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#417140) #
I will really be disappointed if it's Schneider. He has never managed above AA and probably had a lot of input on some of the bad decisions attributed to Charlie.

Wouldn't it just be perfect if it were Gibbons again?

Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#417141) #
Schneider is the interim guy for the rest of the season (this is a 10 week audition for 2023) and Casey Candaele is the new bench coach.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#417142) #
As I mentioned a few days ago I think firing the manager was a real possibility - not surprised - I liked Montoyo but I think the team did not have enough discipline - with the raptors for example Nick Nurse is in charge and everyone knows that - Nurse is not afraid to challenge even his best players and my sense is that was lacking in Montoyo - I have watched very little baseball this season but that's the impression I got.
99BlueJaysWay - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#417143) #
I hope to understand the rationale around the timing. Something must have happened behind the scenes to seal the deal
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:43 PM EDT (#417144) #
It would have been a lot more fun to bring in an old timer, or even an outside choice but probably impossible mid-season.

bpoz - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:45 PM EDT (#417145) #
K Cash turned out to be a great manager right from the start.

I really liked Cito.

The SP going deeper seems like a possible change.
Polite Nate - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:48 PM EDT (#417146) #
This really doesn't seem like the FO's usual style, kind of smacks of desperation to me. I can take or leave Montoyo, so it's a shrug from me, but regardless of whether the team turns things around or not I'm sceptical that this will have had anything to do with it.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#417147) #
Probably wanted to get this done after the weekend debacle, but would be tone deaf to do it Monday. And don't want to wait for a winning streak and then do it unless you're JP Ricciardi, who fired Buck Martinez after a three game sweep of Detroit.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:55 PM EDT (#417148) #
I can think of a number of reasons why this may have happened. The front office may have felt that his in-game decisions were poor or mediocre (you could argue that this cost the team a postseason spot last year), or that the team's on-field execution has been too casual or sloppy. Montoyo may also have lost the clubhouse to some extent.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:56 PM EDT (#417149) #
This FO clearly worships Vlad. They brought in Montoyo so they had a Hispanic Manager for Vlad.

Brought in Schneider because he managed Vlad.

Whoever the manager ends up being, let’s hope they aren’t forced to use Thornton or a forced line up.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#417150) #
Fired after a win...that's unusual.

Buck Martinez got fired after a sweep. On the road.

This isn't nearly as common as it used to be - it's the third in the majors this season. The Phillies went on a run (14-2) after firing Girardi before returning to their generally .500 level. And the Angels have simply cratered since Phil Nevin took over.

The Jays have done this four times before, once by Gillick and three times by Ricciardi. Gillick's interim hire, while he tried to get the guy he really wanted away from New York, ended up winning the division and lasting longer in Toronto than Gillick.

The team played quite a bit better for Carlos Tosca in 2002 than they did for Buck, not that it made much difference. Firing Tosca and bringing in Gibbons made no difference in 2004 - the team got even worse. And the team played better for Gaston in 2008, but it was too late to salvage the season. There was only one Wild Card back in the days of Yore!
Cracka - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:01 PM EDT (#417151) #
Schneider has won a championship at every level he's managed in this organization: Vancouver 2011, Dunedin 2017, and New Hampshire 2018. If you want a reason to believe in this change, there it is.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:02 PM EDT (#417152) #
"or that the team's on-field execution has been too casual or sloppy. Montoyo may also have lost the clubhouse to some extent."

I think these are the 2 main factors. Once you lose the clubhouse, its over. The jays also made a ton of sloppy mistakes which is something that falls on the manager. I like Charlie a lot and I care less about the in-game stuff than most but it was time.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:04 PM EDT (#417153) #
I do suspect that Ross Atkins is sending a message to the players. "See what happens? You lollygaggers just got a good man fired. Proud of yourselves?"
uglyone - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#417154) #
Can't think of any reason to keep him. Plenty of reasons not to.

My bigger concern is that many of the things I disliked about Charlie (i.e. tactics) are actually things our FO likes and agrees with anyway.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#417155) #
I do sense Schneider is a bit more of a hard ass and may do more to discourage the dugout antics, and the more "relaxed" approach. To me, the home run jacket is hilarious and fun when they're on a hot streak, the laughing and joking is great.... but not if the team is underachieving.
Gerry - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#417156) #
Listening to Blair and Barker on the fan590. Schneider and Barker are buddies. Barker implied that players were not being held accountable. Players were expected to do things and weren't doing them.

Davidi suggests frustrations built up on the west coast trip.

I would think this decision was made Sunday.

Davidi coming up on the fan.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#417157) #
Wouldn't be surprised if Atkins is next, though that would be an offseason move. Remember Shapiro's comments when he took over about AA trading off all the prospects? The upper minors seem about as barren as when AA left. Every GM talks about pitching depth in the offseason, but what pitching depth did Atkins get? As much as the hitting has underperformed, the lack of pitching depth is probably going to be what ends up killing the Jays season.
tercet - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#417158) #
Atkins isn't going anywhere (I've been his biggest hater for a while), he signed a 5 year deal in ST right?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#417159) #
Hypobole…jays don’t have high end talent SP in upper minors because they have them in MLB. Difference with AA is he traded them for a few months of David Price. Atkins has Manoah for years and years, and he’s resigned Berrios after trading for him and signed Gausman…complete opposite of AA.

Blair is wondering if this move means a bigger trade is coming, like Gurriel, Teoscar or someone else of value going out like Kirk to address issues.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#417160) #
I also think Charlie's comments to media about the pitching staff may have helped him out the door. Wilner had a pitcher ask if the manager had been critical of them over the weekend....if true, not a ringing endorsement.



Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#417161) #
Every GM talks about pitching depth in the offseason, but what pitching depth did Atkins get?

Well, we didn't really have an off-season this winter. People keep forgetting.
Ryan Day - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:22 PM EDT (#417162) #
Barker implied that players were not being held accountable. Players were expected to do things and weren't doing them.

I hear this sort of thing a lot, but I've never been entirely sure what it's supposed to mean. Should Montoyo bench Vlad? Demote Kikuchi? Release Tapia? Just shout at people more?

I don't think Montoyo is a great manager, but I've also got the impression that he's the guy the front office hired to execute their plan. He's played the cards he's been dealt.

The fact that his replacement was already with the team, and Schneider's replacement was in the org, suggests management don't think there are any serious problems with the team and/or its culture. They didn't even make a pretense of hiring some veteran bench coach who'd bring a "winning culture" or something to the team.

Unless the "hidden story" is that John Schneider is a tactical genius and brilliant motivator & Montoyo spent the year ignoring him, I don't see how this changes much.
bpoz - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#417163) #
I believe that Cito became manager when the team record was very bad. Maybe like 12W-24L as a %. This is not the case here. But the team is struggling.

Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:27 PM EDT (#417164) #
Blair is wondering if this move means a bigger trade is coming, like Gurriel, Teoscar or someone else of value going out

I have the same thought, and part of the idea will be to bust up the barrio. That's enough fun, you guys. There's business to take care of.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#417165) #
To be clear, the pitching prospects traded off have very little to do with the team's current pitching problems.  SWR and Hoglund might be  valuable pitchers in a few years, but weren't going to be helping this year.  The current problem arises from a failure to have acquired a few projects to be stashed in triple A, with the hope that one would emerge, and the failure to acquire a starter and reliever when the situation necessitated it.  Bowden Francis, Casey Lawrence and Thomas Hatch were decent 8th starter/minimal work options, but they did need a #7 option behind Stripling given the foreseeable issues with Ryu and Kikuchi. 

Either way, Atkins would rightfully be on the hot seat himself. 
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:38 PM EDT (#417166) #
Atkins would rightfully be on the hot seat himself.

I'm pretty sure Shapiro understands that all through December, January, February, and half of March Atkins literally could not talk to a player agent without a) violating US labour law, and b) risking the wrath of a commissioner who can issue fines, suspensions, forfeiture of draft picks.

This team doesn't look as utterly lost and confused as the 2008 squad. But they look like they've all lost about 30 IQ points. They've been playing a lot of really stupid baseball.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:46 PM EDT (#417167) #
"The upper minors seem about as barren as when AA left"

that barren system included one Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#417168) #
It's been obvious for a long time that the club needed a back-end starter. Too slow.
Nigel - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:50 PM EDT (#417169) #
I’ve always been ambivalent about Montoyo. I thought he deployed his roster inefficiently but accepted that what happened on game day was a small portion of a manager’s role. The off field benefits outweighed the game day issues. This team hasn’t played smart baseball for some time now and it got harder to justify that the off field stuff outweighed the other issues. I think you can do far worse than Montoyo but I can’t find fault with this decision. There’s a decided lack of grit on this team. I don’t know where you find that but it’s lacking in the current construct of the team.
krose - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#417170) #
They’ve been playing a lot of really stupid baseball.

Yes! Just seems to be a lack of seriousness about the game. It’s one thing to hang loose, but there’s still a need to stay tight. Over many years of watching this team/organization this problem has arisen from time to time. Maybe there’s a lack of wise old curmudgeons surrounding the decision makers.? Was interesting to see Blair come out with a negative article on the eve of this firing. Sure looked like someone was going to get fired. I thought it would be Blair.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#417171) #
They can't have it both ways. When Donaldson was here holding people accountable they cried foul about bullying and a culture that didn't fit their play book. They cleared out Gibbons and guys like Tulo and Donaldson and brought in a manager who introduced himself to Ryu over a round of bongo demonstrations in the players room. This is clearly a message to the team as mentioned upthread, yet the only real power to deliver a message is to fix the glaring holes on the team. Get a bullpen, bench players for dumb decisions, trade from surplus or prospects to address deficiencies.

Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#417172) #
They cleared out Gibbons and guys like Tulo and Donaldson

They cleared out Tulo?
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#417173) #
I think the worm turned "culture" wise with the Marcus Stroman situation. Clearly, Marcus would have been a good guy to have around; he wanted to stay here and could have been a solid rotation piece for 5-6 years but his personality did not mesh with what Shapiro/Atkins wanted to build here.
Rich - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:05 PM EDT (#417174) #
Respectfully I think you can.  There's plenty of middle ground where a disciplined, focused club can still have fun and be neither a military style operation nor a circus.  And this is one of the biggest tasks for Schneider and his potential replacement.
uglyone - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#417175) #
whenever "culture" is brought up to actually criticize key players on the only Jays' playoffs teams in he past 30 years it raises my hackles.
Petey Baseball - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:09 PM EDT (#417176) #
Speaking of Marcus Stroman, were it not for his acrimonious history with this front office, he'd be a perfect realistic trade candidate for the Jays. He probably wouldn't cost as much as other names floated around.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#417177) #
Donaldson may be an abrasive sort of fellow, but I don't think that's why they traded him. I think it was because an injury-prone 32 year old free agent wasn't a great fit in what was clearly going to be a rebuild. If anything, they hung on to him for too long.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:16 PM EDT (#417178) #
Tull was cleared out. They basically told him not to come back because he wouldn’t be their shortstop.

Donaldson they didn’t resign because they didn’t think he had a good attitude.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:19 PM EDT (#417179) #
They basically told [Tulo] not to come back because he wouldn’t be their shortstop.

He wasn't going to be anybody's shortstop. He was done, like dinner. He was a sunk cost.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:24 PM EDT (#417180) #
Sure…that’s why Yankees signed him.

Jays exit first round against Texas without Tulo.

And he’s still the 2nd best fielding shortstop in MLB history.

“Sunk cost,” is ignorant. We traded a bad contract to get him. He contributed before he was injured.

Try just a lite bit?
hypobole - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:28 PM EDT (#417181) #
Read what I wrote. I didn't say Atkins traded the pitching depth, I asked what depth did he get.
Paul D - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#417182) #
I don't understand the point you're making Dalimon. Tulo was done as a player after his time in Toronto. They didn't ditch him for attitude issues, they got rid of him because he could no longer play baseball
hypobole - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:33 PM EDT (#417183) #
"The upper minors seem about as barren as when AA left"
that barren system included one Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Vlad hadn't even played in rookie ball when AA left. That is not upper minors. AA left plenty enough in A ball and lower.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:35 PM EDT (#417184) #
Sure…that’s why Yankees signed him.

WHy not? The Jays were on the hook for all the money he still had coming. Tulo played 5 - count 'em, five - games for the Yankees. Then went on the IL. Then retired.

He was a big contributor in 2015 and 2016. But by the off-season of 2018, he was done. He missed almost 100 games in 2017, and the entire 2018 season. He was finished.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:40 PM EDT (#417185) #
he’s still the 2nd best fielding shortstop in MLB history.

That same metric - fielding percentage - says Freddie Galvis is the third best fielding shortstop in MLB history. Who knew?
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:49 PM EDT (#417186) #
“The upper minors seem about as barren as when AA left. Every GM talks about pitching depth in the offseason, but what pitching depth did Atkins get? As much as the hitting has underperformed, the lack of pitching depth is probably going to be what ends up killing the Jays season.”

I was commenting on your first statement of a barren upper minors system, which is a silly statement considering they have Manoah, traded some of that upper minors depth for Berrios.
Thomas - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 02:59 PM EDT (#417187) #
Donaldson may be an abrasive sort of fellow,

May be??

I don't think his personality was the sole, or even main, determinant of why the Jays didn't resign him, but there was also a case for a rebuilding team to spend the money on a one-year contract for Donaldson and then either the team catches lightning in a bottle or you hope he has a bounceback year and can be flipped for prospects at the deadline. As it turned out, he finished 11th in MVP Voting with 5.4 WAR and a 126 OPS+

This decision was obviously made over the weekend at some point, but only announced today for commendable reasons.

I don't agree with idea of breaking up the barrio just because* (a baseball trade is a different matter altogether), or with the idea that Vlad and co. are having too much fun that it distracts from winning. The idea that a team has to visibly "try hard" reeks of all of the worst elements of eyewash to me.

If Schneider can introduce more accountability that Montoyo was not able or refused to do - and I agree that it's a bit of a nebulous concept, but I do think there are ways to manage a team of people in a way that does hold them more accountable without becoming a tyrant or operating solely from a punish-any-error perspective - while also maintaining an environment that lets the players enjoy themselves, that's great and that could be a positive change. I tend to think that needing a fresh voice was probably a significant reason for this change; it's never a great sign when players are holding players-only meetings.

Schneider has a history of winning in the minors with Vlad and Bo, so I am hopeful that there is a good foundation for the three of them to build that in the majors. Ultimately, I think Schneider has a real chance to get this job permanently, so I'm looking forward to seeing how he does over these ten weeks.

*Billy Beane would disagree based on his John Mabry example.

electric carrot - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 03:03 PM EDT (#417189) #
I wish Montoya well but I do agree it's time for a new voice (and a new starting pitcher asap.) This team should be doing better than it has so far.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 03:07 PM EDT (#417190) #
Montoyo wasn't the big issue, pitching (especially the pen) and timely hitting are. But if he has lost the clubhouse then he had to go - on Twitter there were comments from people who were in Seattle who sat near the dugout saying the atmosphere was negative and not just due to the losses. Impossible to know what is real or not but it is an interesting item to add. I'd mix in Vlad twice having his equipment fail, Vlad waiving off doing a challenge and the team doing it anyways, as signs of bigger issues which we as fans don't see.

As to the farm - after the 2015 season the Jays had 1 guy in the top 100, and a second on the fringe (Anthony Alford & Conner Greene). In AAA the top 25 or less hitter was Dalton Pompey (285/372/356), then Andy Burns, A.J. Jimenez, Jon Berti, Devon Travis (alternated ML/AAA that year), Roemon Fields. Not much. Dwight Smith Jr. was the 'highlight' in AA (711 OPS), and no others jump out at me scanning the list. Pitching in 2015 though... under 25's were Sanchez, Stroman, and Osuna - an ace, a closer, and a guy who lands under 'could have been something'.

Today's farm has Moreno, Groshans, Orelvis Martinez all in AA/AAA (all top 100's), plus Samad Taylor, Otto Lopez, Spencer Horwitz, and others who might be good. I wouldn't call that barren by any stretch. More depth would be nice, but realistically having 2 guys every team wants and a 3rd who is a solid prospect in the upper minors is nice. It is rare you get to have 2 or 3 ready for the majors guys who aren't in the majors there as pitchers - we thought Pearson, Hatch, Allgeyer, Kay, and Francis could cover that. They didn't. Instead Castillo has shown up and looks like he could grab a rotation slot if given the shot.

So now what? The idea of a big trade coming makes sense - the Jays need a shakeup if they feel the team isn't going to start on a hot streak. Trading Gurriel would make a TON of sense as he is cheap still and is on a hot streak - both factors that could lead another team to overpay for him. But then you'd need to bring someone else in as no OF prospect is pounding on the door, nor is Tapia or Biggio the solution in LF imo. Should be an interesting couple of weeks before the deadline.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 03:14 PM EDT (#417191) #
The idea that a team has to visibly "try hard" reeks of all of the worst elements of eyewash to me.

Agreed. Absolutely.

I think there was an assumption in late 2018 that Donaldson was looking for, and would surely get, a multi-year deal from someone. It was a bit of a surprise that he found no takers and had to settle for a single year with Atlanta. Where he did just what you said - he re-established his value, and got himself a nice multi-year deal with the Twins.
tercet - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 03:18 PM EDT (#417192) #
So much for big changes, Bo is still hitting 2nd, and Tapia playing in first game of JS.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 03:19 PM EDT (#417193) #
Manoah was already in the majors and the trade for Berrios happened last year.

Other teams navigated this abbreviated offseason. Giants signed 4 SP's this past offseason (Rodon, Cobb, Wood, Desclafani), plus Matt Boyd and bullpen arms.
Glevin - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#417194) #
"Other teams navigated this abbreviated offseason. Giants signed 4 SP's this past offseason (Rodon, Cobb, Wood, Desclafani), plus Matt Boyd and bullpen arms."

And Giants needed to because they had almost no starters. jays already had Manoah, Ryu, and Berrios so they weren't going to sign more than 2 guys (nobody good is signing to be a 6th starter). Jays signed Gausman and Kikuchi and bullpen arms which made Stripling and Pearson their #6 and #7 starters with guys like Hatch and Castillo vying for #8. That was good enough to start the season. Once Ryu went down and Pearson never came back, the Jays need to make a deal but I am sure teams are holding out for ridiculous packages as it's a seller's market. I still don't think they need an elite starter (Manoah, Gausman, and Berrios is good enough for playoffs for sure) but do need someone who can throw some decent innings to get the jays to the playoffs. The biggest failure for me in the front office is not getting a late-inning flamethrower for the last couple of years. Would be very surprised if Jays don't trade for one. Right now, there's too much of middle innings guys in the late innings.

greenfrog - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#417195) #
I think the Jays should target a pitcher who can start in the playoffs. Otherwise the team may come up short against good teams (especially if one of their front three gets injured or goes through a period of ineffectiveness in October).

That's Plan A. Plan B would be to target a lesser arm (someone like Quintana, possibly) who can at least help them get to the postseason. Not making it to the postseason this year would be a clear failure on the part of the team and front office.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#417196) #
Apparently the last team to fire a manager while the team was actually in a position to make the playoffs was Milwaukee in 2008. They canned Ned Yost with two weeks left, and the Brewers sitting in the Wild Card spot. They'd just lost 11 of 14 games. They hung on to the Wild Card, and were dismissed by the Phillies in the NLDS.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#417197) #
Did they do this today because it's first day of NHL free agency? And either a) no one would even notice or b) they'd notice this instead?

The Leafs have signed three free agents so far. Which is what I had been planning on paying attention to until game time!
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#417198) #
"Manoah was already in the majors and the trade for Berrios happened last year.

Other teams navigated this abbreviated offseason. Giants signed 4 SP's this past offseason (Rodon, Cobb, Wood, Desclafani), plus Matt Boyd and bullpen arms."

You're talking about something else altogether now. You brought up "Upper minors depth," then used Rodon, Cobb, Wood, Boyd and Desclafani as examples of what other teams did, which speaks to nothing about Upper Minor depth. What's worse, 4 out of those 5 pitchers have been or are injured.

I think you're missing my point that Atkins used his top upper minors depth to acquire Berries and and promote Manoah. That was our depth. SWR, Manoah and Pearson. One is inured. One is in the rotation and the last was part of the package for Berrios. So it's not that Atkins hasn't had minors pitching, I'm trying to point out that he had it and either graduated it to the majors or traded it for our current rotation. It's not fair to say they don't have upper minor pitching to help when it was used to improve the rotation.

Most of the guys you mention are bounce back candidates not unlike Kirby Yates from last year which back fired.
scottt - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#417199) #
Surprised to see Montoyo go now instead of after missing the playoffs or a quick exit.
Maybe Shapiro is the one facing accountability.

Atkins did fine in the offseason. He wasn't supposed to trade away Ryu with 40M left on his contract.
Kikuchi was a high risk that didn't pay off, but he's the 5th starter.
Gausman is fine. Berrios has been up and down. It seems like he moved up and down the rubber.
Whose idea was that? Probably not Montoyo's.
Hatch has been terrible. Kay is basically a reliever now?

On the pen side, Richards has been bad, so the return for Tellez looks pretty thin.
Cimber was a steal, however.
Garcia has been fine. Merryweather, Pearson, Kay, Borucki and Haggen Danner (been injured and wasting a 40-roster spot since early April, just to protect him from a rule 5 draft that didn't happen) have been useless.

Romo and Banda went 0-2 on that trip.
Need to get good arms there instead. Maybe Stripling take one spot back but he has a 4+ ERA in the pen.

The pen isn't built to handle a starter going less than 5 innings.
Maybe that becomes Stripling's job, protecting the rest of the pen.

Schwarber would have been worth trading Gurriel, but trading a guy who has been hitting close to .400 isn't going to make the team better right now. As bad as they've been, they could be a whole lot worse.

Rays and Red Sox have also had their problems.
Orioles have been playing real well, which is fine, they're going to play nothing but Boston and Tampa for over a week.

Cracka - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#417200) #
Some other very encouraging news for the rest of the week... Gausman is going to start tomorrow and the Royals are coming to town for four games and leaving TEN PLAYERS behind due to COVID (a few of which might have been trade targets for us):

2B Whit Merrifield
1B Hunter Dozier
OF Michael A. Taylor
OF Andrew Benintendi
OF Kyle Isbel
C Cam Gallagher
C MJ Melendez
RHP Brad Keller
RHP Brady Singer
RHP Dylan Coleman
lexomatic - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#417201) #
<br>wow 10 players
Benitendi was a clear best fit for LF with occasional CF backup.
Any platoon LH bats available?
Taylor MIGHT have been a fit and Keller too. Don't see a trade fit with Royals now, so that's good to know.
85bluejay - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#417203) #
10 players! WOW - That makes this weekend series a farce.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#417204) #
Wow, how insane, 10 players who are idiots. At least we know 10 players the Jays have zero interest in trading for now. With each road team coming in we learn more about the limits for the Jays in trades.
92-93 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#417205) #
It was only around 3 weeks ago in here when the commenters who were expressing dismay with the team's performance and management were effectively told to simmer down, mostly because their strong and lucky record in one run games had them close to their pre-season wins projections. It was obvious at the time that the team was not playing up to the sum of its parts, and we should be glad that they finally pulled the trigger and are trying to change the culture.

Let's take the series tonight and then destroy KC.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 06:19 PM EDT (#417206) #
They'll be down their starting catcher, first baseman, and left fielder. Singer pitched today, so the Jays wouldn't have seen him anyway. Keller would have been the Saturday pitcher. Merrifield and Taylor were day-to-day with minor injuries.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#417207) #
Agreed that a change had to be made.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 06:24 PM EDT (#417208) #
Quite the mess for KC this weekend. Their 3rd catcher will be needed, they'll be missing their entire regular OF and 4th OF (based on BR), their normal DH is on the IL, only 6 guys used beyond the minimum for their offense and 2 of those 6 are on the IL, Santana was traded to Seattle (grrr), 2 removed from the 40 man. Wow. The 3 pitchers are the 2 starters with the lowest ERA (Keller, Singer) and a wild reliever (Coleman who has walked 28 in 36 IP).

The Jays could still trade for their closer - Scott Barlow - I guess but he doesn't jump out as what the Jays want beyond being an effective reliever - he has under a K per inning, good but not great control, his big asset is a low H/9 which is the least reliable thing.
hypobole - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 06:38 PM EDT (#417209) #
Atkins knew Manoah would be in the rotation - he wasn't depth this offseason. Neither was SWR. Atkins should have known the pitching in the upper minors was thin. The Giants signings were in response to a different posters comments about not having enough time for signings.

All that said, todays Royals news has softened my stance somewhat. The pool of players that could have been signed for pitching depth would definitely have been smaller for the Jays than any other team due to vaccination status. Maybe the lack of depth signings wasn't by design.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#417210) #
Does the vaccination border requirement even make sense at this stage of the pandemic?
Lylemcr - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#417211) #
It is easier to fire a coach than the whole team. There are too many good players on the team to be just 4 games over 500 (and only 2 games ahead of Baltimore). They really should not be fighting for their baseball lives.

I still feel that he should have been fired after that showing with the Yankees.

The GM should be sweating too. He has many young superstars (thanks to AA) that will want their payday soon and the window is closing.

Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#417212) #
He has many young superstars (thanks to AA)

Really? Who? Vlad, okay. Who else?
mathesond - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 07:10 PM EDT (#417213) #
"Does the vaccination border requirement even make sense at this stage of the pandemic?"

I believe the US has the same requirement, so perhaps 2 countries are doing it wrong. On the other hand, it appears that re-infections may be more damaging than the initial infection (which finally left me back on July 4).
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 07:11 PM EDT (#417214) #
“The GM should be sweating too. He has many young superstars (thanks to AA) that will want their payday soon and the window is closing.”

Bo Bichette Not by AA
Alek Manoah - Not by AA
Lourdes Gurriel - not by AA
Teoscar Hernandez - Not by AA
Vladimir Guerrero - by AA

Which young superstars are you talking about who Shapiro and Atkins should be thankful to AA for?
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#417215) #
Which young superstars are you talking about who Shapiro and Atkins should be thankful to AA for?

Danny Jansen and Tim Mayza.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 07:22 PM EDT (#417216) #
Which GM signed Kirk and Moreno? Those were terrific signings.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 07:24 PM EDT (#417217) #
Which GM signed Kirk and Moreno?

Atkins.

Superstars are good to have. It's not enough. Mike Trout is playing for his fourth field manager and his fourth general manager.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#417218) #
You know, the Jays might want to negotiate an extension with Stripling at the All-Star break (I sound like a broken record. I said the same thing last year about Ray).
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 08:02 PM EDT (#417222) #
Green,

Ray and Stripling weren’t candidates to resign middle of the season at a discount. Half way through a walk season these guys know they’re less than a quarter away from the big bucks.

I’d also like to see Stripling resigned. On Blair and Barker someone said that Danny Jansen and Ross Stripling had a lot of sway in the locker room, for what that’s worth.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#417223) #
OK, that was ridiculous.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 08:07 PM EDT (#417224) #
His father's son.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 08:19 PM EDT (#417225) #
The club has had some bad luck this season with many warning track fly balls and few JEs.  A little good luck in that department tonight.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#417226) #
Stripling I wrote off as a resign due to his probably wanting to be a starter and no slots here with Ryu here. Now there is a spot until more kids come up so maybe he can be resigned. A 3 year $30 mil deal would be nice. No idea what he'd want.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 08:39 PM EDT (#417228) #
Apparently VGJ's homer went 397 feet.  Amazing.  It wasn't even a wallscraper. 
uglyone - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#417229) #
Hopefully vladdy is reminded how strong he is and goes back to being patient and easy.

Post-monotyo era off to a rollicking start.
Eephus - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#417230) #
Just think of where this team would be currently without Ross Stripling.

Actually, no don’t think of that.
dalimon5 - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 08:58 PM EDT (#417231) #
So, early theories:

Montoyo refused to let the players run. Atkins didn’t like it. Replaced Montoyo with Schneider and they’re running like hell.

uglyone - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 09:09 PM EDT (#417232) #
Still pulling SP at 80 pitches tho.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#417233) #

In the house. Just in case.
Mike Green - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 09:18 PM EDT (#417235) #
Full credit.  Nice play by Tapia.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 09:26 PM EDT (#417236) #
The Jays have pulled off the midseason extension before. They did it with EE (on July 12, 2012):

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-sign-edwin-encarnacion-three-year-extension/
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 09:43 PM EDT (#417238) #
Since coming back off the IL, Richards has made 5 appearances and worked 5 innings. He's allowed 1 hit - a single - and struck out 9.
greenfrog - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 09:47 PM EDT (#417239) #
Nice debut for Schneider, beating Wheeler and the Phillies. The Jays are now tied with Boston at 47-42.
John Northey - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#417240) #
First mid-season manager change by the Jays without Cito taking over. Hopefully the Jays get off to a charge like they did both times with Cito - 1989 from 12-24 to the playoffs, 2008 35-39 before then 51-37 after. I guess technically they did dump Cito in 1997 with 5 games to go (4-1 under Mel Queen) as well. But regardless, each time the team played a lot better post-dump than pre.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#417241) #
Whoa, there John. Tosca replaced Martinez midway through 2002 and Gibby replaced Tosca midway through 2004. With Ricciardi, mid-season managerial changes were all you ever had!
JohnL - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#417242) #
“First mid-season manager change by the Jays without Cito taking over.”

And…
2002: Martinez to Tosca
2004 Tosca to Gibbons
John Northey - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#417244) #
Oops good catch JohnL - forgot about those 2 probably because the early 2000's were such a depressing time in Jays history and I was dating then marrying my wife - kind of more important than baseball :)

2002: Martinez 20-33 : Tosca 58-51
2004: Tosca 47-64 : Gibbons 20-30 - the one time a mid-season change didn't improve the team
John Northey - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 10:51 PM EDT (#417245) #
Oops - sorry Magpie you were first to correct me.

Weird how the guys the Jays give their first manager job to also are the last to hire the guys normally.
  • Roy Hartsfield: 77-79
  • Bobby Mattick: 80-81
  • Bobby Cox: 4 years in Atlanta, 82-85 here, 90-2010 in Atlanta again, then HOF
  • Jimy Williams: 86-89 here, 5 years in Boston, 3 in Houston - why the heck did he get those chances? He was terrible. All 3 times fired mid-season
  • Cito Gaston: 89-97, 2008-2010 here, but never again anywhere despite 2 WS titles.
  • Gene Tenace: 1991 filled in for Cito while he was sick for a month+ (19-14), his only time managing
  • Mel Queen: 1997 - 5 games after Cito fired
  • Tim Johnson: 1998 - lied about being in Vietnam, Gord Ash really didn't check up things did he?
  • Jim Fregosi: 4 years with Angels, 3 with White Sox, 6 with Phillies, then the Jays ended him in 1999-2000
  • Buck Martinez: 2001-2002 here and that's it.
  • Carlos Tosca: 2002-2004 here
  • John Gibbons: 2004-2008, 2013-2018, no one else has given him a shot
  • John Farrell: 2011-2012 here, then traded to Boston where he ran them from 2013-2017
  • Charlie Montoyo: 2019-2022, no idea if anyone else will hire him - if I ran a team that is early in the rebuild I'd hire him as he seems like a good teacher.
So out of 14 hires there were just 2 with prior ML managing experience (Cox and Fregosi) while out of those 14 only Cox, Williams, and Farrell got a chance elsewhere. So 12 rookie managers, only 2 got chances elsewhere and 1 was a horrid manager (Williams). Weird. It'd be interesting to check other teams to see if this is normal. Cito & Gibbons both made the playoffs here and had some success in the playoffs yet never got a shot with any other team (to date).
JohnL - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 10:55 PM EDT (#417246) #
John Northey:
Actually I was the first to correct you, except I had to “submit comment” three damn times before it posted. ;-)
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 11:03 PM EDT (#417247) #
Blame the browser!
John Northey - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#417249) #
In the end I'm just happy the Jays won again. They damn well better pound the crap out of the Royals AAA team this weekend.
Omaha the AAA team of the Royals, is 43-42 9 games out of 1st, the Royals are 35-53, dead last in the pathetic AL Central, 13 games back. This is the closest to a mandatory sweep there is. The 1899 Spiders (worst team in MLB history) might have been as good as this Royals team the Jays will face. We have Gausman, Manoah, Castillo, and Berrios going. Lets hope.
Magpie - Wednesday, July 13 2022 @ 11:50 PM EDT (#417250) #
This is the closest to a mandatory sweep there is.

Already, I'm imagining Zack Greinke turning back the clock for a day, and Bobby Witt hitting a solo homer...

I have one sick imagination, do I not?
John Northey - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 12:44 AM EDT (#417252) #
Sadly you are probably right Magpie. Or the Jays just have more balls go through gloves, a starter gets hurt, or other weirdness like, say, calling up Anthony Kay to start instead of Castillo.
Eephus - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 01:50 AM EDT (#417253) #
If there is any one thing I’ve learned in my adult life from baseball, either watching professionals or playing it (at a significantly lower level) competitively… never assume anything. Ever. That 1-15 team missing their three ringers can still somehow pummel you, while your squad full of objectively excellent ballplayers just have a day they can’t read the spin or the bounce off the infield. The game will humble you… arguably the greatest blessing and curse of it…
scottt - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 06:53 AM EDT (#417254) #
Richards was throwing his fastball at 94mph. Right at the knees, that's not a bad pitch.
He was painting the corner with the change at 84mph.
He was looking very good. Just need to be careful of hitters who know him too well and staying away from the hitter's hot zones.

scottt - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 07:00 AM EDT (#417255) #
I don't know about culture change.
This is a manager that has never been in another org.

I do like the idea of running the bases more.
Steal a base to get out of the double play with Kirk at the plate.
Steal a base when they're seeing nothing but breaking balls off the plate (possibly called for strikes).

Chuck - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 08:40 AM EDT (#417257) #
Schneider's best decision was to tell his players to hit two HR off of Wheeler. That was good managing. As for the all the running, it looks great when it works and like over-managing when it doesn't. Those kind of decisions seem like the type that new managers make to assert their presence. I don't know that the Jays will suddenly morph into Herzog's Cardinals.
scottt - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 08:50 AM EDT (#417258) #
They have a few guys who can swipe a base, Biggio, Bichette, Springer, Hernandez and Tapia.
Sometimes it's great just to make the pitcher rush his delivery, slide step, waste a pitch out or throw more fastballs.
You just need to pick your spots.

Besides bunting more, it's pretty much the only thing a manager can do.
Was it John Farrell who loved bunting?

I don't think Atkins promoted him to be told what players to trade and demote.

scottt - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#417259) #
Lots of press about the 10 unvaccinated Royals.

Merryfield said that if he were on a good team with a chance to make the playoffs things could change.

It seems a combination of the Royals not putting any pressure on their players--even though it might make it harder to trade them for some return and the fact that many players don't mind making the All-Stars break 8 games (even if they lose some money).

bpoz - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#417260) #
Nice to remember Cito. The 1989 team was part of that good 80s team. The 2008 team may have been there in 2005 80 wins, 2006 87 wins, 2007 83 wins. In both cases Cito did very well.

However 2009 under Cito only 75 wins. We discussed this years ago and felt it was injuries. In 2010 85 wins with many rookies I think. The rotation was also very young. Of importance to me was that Halladay did not play for the Jays in 2010.
Magpie - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 09:47 AM EDT (#417261) #
Was it John Farrell who loved bunting?

Not really - he bunted an average amount. But he came after Cito Gaston, who hated bunting with every fibre of his being. So it seemed like Farrell bunted a lot after that.
92-93 - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 11:08 AM EDT (#417262) #
Running and putting pressure on the defense when you have the lead always looks great, even in failure. The Jays weren't aggressive enough under Montoyo, and they have the personnel to change it up a bit.
92-93 - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#417264) #
Did the vaccination border requirement make sense at any stage of the pandemic?
Chuck - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 11:45 AM EDT (#417266) #
The Jays weren't aggressive enough under Montoyo, and they have the personnel to change it up a bit.

Even if true, that's just nibbling at the edges. The team's offense is indeed poorer than last year's (+0.27 R/G against AL average this year vs. +0.62 last year) but it's the other side of the ledger that is killing the team (-0.23 RA/G vs. +0.49). Schneider will be hard-pressed to manage his pitching staff into better performances. That will be on the players, the front office and, to some degree, the pitching coach.

On offense, my untrained eye is seeing a decline in discipline being the biggest problem. Guerrero has stopped walking in some kind of homage to his father and Springer now seems insistent on fouling inside pitches into his leg rather than taking them for balls. Bichette, of course, has been hacktastic all season.

Mike Green - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#417267) #
The vaccination border requirement obviously made sense prior to Omicron when vaccination directly affected transmissibility.  It still makes sense now to me- vaccine acceptance is likely correlated with mask-wearing and other infection control measures. Canada cannot reliably directly determine that people it admits have taken reasonable infection control measures particularly during periods of high community spread in their locales, but requiring proof of vaccination ups the odds.

This does, of course, raise the question whether Canadian provinces have had sufficient infection control measures on their own.  It varies of course from province to province but the answer is generally no (in my view).  This is particularly true now with our failure in Ontario and most other provinces to have a public indoor mask mandate during a period of fairly high community spread.

It's a mess, but the most important thing from my perspective is the emerging knowledge that the most recent variants are particularly awful for kids under 5.  We owe it to those who cannot take care of themselves to make things as safe as reasonably feasible for them.  A vaccine requirement for visitors is reasonably feasible and will help.  As will a public indoor mask mandate for everyone.  And increased availability of boosters, ventilation improvement requirement for indoor public spaces with funding in some instances and so on.

When I went to the RC for the first time in over 2 years, I was disappointed to be the only one wearing a mask that I saw.  It is outdoors, but you have less than 3 feet distance from your neighbour for 3 hours, and you do have the tight spaces when entering and exiting and using the washroom. 


Mike Green - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#417268) #

On offense, my untrained eye is seeing a decline in discipline being the biggest problem. Guerrero has stopped walking in some kind of homage to his father and Springer now seems insistent on fouling inside pitches into his leg rather than taking them for balls. Bichette, of course, has been hacktastic all season.

Fangraphs helps.  Guerrero Jr. is swinging at 33% of pitches outside the zone this year as compared with 27% and 28% the previous 2 years.  He is not swinging at more pitches in the zone.  This is definitely not good.  Springer is swinging at 29% of pitches outside the zone, the highest of his career and considerably higher than his 25.5% career mark.  In fairness, he's swinging at many more pitches in the zone also.  But he's not making as much contact as usual.  So that's not good.  Bo Bichette is actually swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone (but still a lot), but making less contact than before.  In his case, it's been a combination of a few things- more strikeouts, fewer line drives and fewer infield hits due to reduced speed (he's lost .1 second over last year and .3 second since his rookie year and is now in the 57th percentile for speed instead of the 82nd). 

greenfrog - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 12:24 PM EDT (#417269) #
Those trends raise some questions:

1. Is the FO and coaching staff aware of these offensive issues?

2. Do they have an effective game plan for addressing them (to the extent that coaching can help)?

3. Should the team reassess what it will need to win a championship, what its realistic window of contention is, and whether it should offer contract extensions to Vladdy, Bo, and others?
Mike Green - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 12:37 PM EDT (#417270) #
1. Is the FO and coaching staff aware of these offensive issues?
2. Do they have an effective game plan for addressing them (to the extent that coaching can help)?
3. Should the team reassess what it will need to win a championship, what its realistic window of contention is, and whether it should offer contract extensions to Vladdy, Bo, and others?

1.  I assume that they know a lot more than what a simple Fangraphs search will tell you. 
2.  I have no idea.  I'm guessing that most of the cause is "mental" rather than mechanical- i.e. trying to do too much, too often. 
3.  Despite all of this, the team's position players as a whole have been almost good enough to win a championship. Just a small uptick towards reasonable expectations will do it.  The realistic window of contention is not changed.  And as for the contract extensions, I'd start with Teoscar Hernandez.  He's still the same hitter and a good player.  If he'd sign a 3 year contract, covering his last arb year and two free agent years at market price, I'd do it. 
92-93 - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#417271) #
If one is still scared of getting covid after 4 vaccine shots it's probably best if they stay home instead of attending sporting events. Better safe than sorry.

And the border rules make zero sense. There is nothing preventing a vaccinated person who has covid from hopping on a flight to Canada. A test requirement would be more effective.
greenfrog - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 12:52 PM EDT (#417272) #
If I were the GM, I would want some extra talent on the team to help offset the moderate declines of Bo, Vladdy and Springer. If the prime window is 2022 plus the next couple of years, then now is the time to load up on some high-level talent (SP, RP, CF) so that the team has a sufficiently deep roster to dominate the opposition.

Atkins says, “good teams win,” but great teams win more than good ones do.
lexomatic - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#417273) #
Guerrero Jr. is swinging at 33% of pitches outside the zone this year as compared with 27% and 28% the previous 2 years. etc.
I really think this is down to the bad/inconsistent umpiring. when there are clearly blown calls you have to start swinging at more, and you're likely to swing at more bad pitches, and doing worse. And then comes the trying harder and swinging more etc. And when most of the team was slumping  and then Vlad got hurt? But I think it all starts with blown calls.
Mike Green - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#417274) #
I would not be assuming moderate declines from Guerrero Jr. and Bichette based on half a season, given their ages.   I expect both to be a smidge better than their career marks to date through 2026.  Springer is very different, and they obviously need a centerfielder to spell him off.  Maybe Schneider will use Zimmer regularly and we will find out whether he can hit as he did in 2020-21 with more regular playing time.  That seems to me to be a P-K4 move. 
Paul D - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#417275) #
Mike, where are you seeing that the new variants are particularly rough on the under five age group?
lexomatic - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#417277) #
There is lots of information about under 5  harm. Schools have been a huge factor in transmission but a lot of the info is elsewhere because of government attempts at hiding information that would make them look bad.
UK stuff I thin kis mostly it, where there's evidence of hepatitis linked to covid.
AB stuff where mask mandates showed there was reduced transmission when in place
is the only saved link I have handy https://mobile.twitter.com/DFisman/status/1536129789005807617
John Northey - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 04:10 PM EDT (#417286) #
For the Jays offense - I'll guarantee the coaches are working with the players hard on getting those contact rates up. Sometimes it just doesn't work for whatever reason. I suspect Cito being at the game the other day was so he could work with some of them - give a different viewpoint on what is wrong. He was amazing as a hitting coach in the 80's and was a big factor in getting Bautista to move from marginal to superstar as I recall.

I suspect the Jays have Devo here right now not just to help while a coach deals with horrible tragedy but also to work on the baserunning as he was very good at stealing bases and the like (346 SB vs 98 CS - 78% success). FanGraphs has Devo as a net +27.3 runs in his career for baserunning (just 1 year as a negative near the end). Bo on the other hand has been negative in 3 of his 4 seasons (as an example). Tapia has 1 negative year in his career for baserunning, but overall is a net +11.7, Zimmer a net +10.0 with 1 negative year. So if White can help the not so good runners a bit in judgement and timing, and give the good ones a bit more help this team could gain a few runs here and there and win more often.

It is good if the Jays can keep bringing in guys from the past who had skills that the current team is struggling with - players listen to guys who have had success more than they listen to coaches who didn't have ML success I suspect, especially kids. In the past I recall the Jays having Tim Raines come in to help from time to time which was a fantastic idea. I'd see if Rickey Henderson would be interested in helping out too - he did play here and get a WS ring. Both would hold a ton of attention due to their HOF status and multiple WS rings. For raw offense, Dante Bichette helped in the past and I'd see if he is willing to help out again, be it at home or on the road (no idea on his vaxx status) even if just for a series. See what works with each player and go from there.

Right now I don't see any easy offensive improvements - the closest is replacing Tapia or doing a big trade to get a great LH OF to replace one of Gurriel or Hernandez. But the cost of such a deal could be high both in prospects and risk (due to how close Gurriel & Hernandez seem to be with Vlad). So coaching is the best route, followed by more pitching help. Richards is off to a good start coming from injury. Maybe Kikuchi will too - one can hope. Btw, Berrios has a positive Win Percentage Added in 10 starts out of 18 - basically he is either very good or very bad this year, but more good than bad games. 50% of the time going 6+ innings, 13 times going 5+ (72%). Not Manoah level, but solid. His ERA makes him look worse than he has been and the team overall is 13-5 in his starts. No question the Kikuchi slot is the headache. We have 4 solid starters right now in Gausman (if healthy), Manoah, Berrios, and Stripling I feel with the 5th slot about to be tested with a kid (Castillo) until Kikuchi is ready to come back. The pen needs help but who knows what the price teams are demanding is?
Mike Green - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 05:23 PM EDT (#417293) #
PaulD, there's more uncertainty about the new variants and COVID for young children than what my post suggests. Apologies.  It is known that:

1. Omicron led to a large increase in pediatric hospitalizations because of its transmissibility and the fact that under 5s were unvaccinated and only half of 5-11s were vaccinated
2. BA4 and BA5 are even more transmissible and the vaccine status has not yet changed yet
3. Myocarditis, and serious neurological consequences have historically occurred in 3% of pediatric hospital emergency visits for COVID

The long-term consequences are unknown.  The frequency of long COVID in adults leads to the reasonable possibility that children may have similar symptoms at unknown frequency (more, less or the same).  It is very hard to test for this, but it would be observable in learning situations over time. 
Paul D - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#417296) #
Thanks for the response Mike
Mike Green - Thursday, July 14 2022 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#417297) #
Danny Jansen had a BABIP of .163 before that PA.  He's been killing the ball this year, but doesn't have the numbers to show for it. 
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