The draft starts on Sunday July 17. There are a few mock drafts already published.

With the draft my main hope is someone drops for some reason (say, needs Tommy John, or slumped most of this year, or whatever) so the Jays can get a top quality guy with their low pick (#23).

My main hope is that by skill or luck they draft some good prospects. How many 2021 draftees are currently looking better than #91 Ricky T?

Addison Barger has been promoted to New Hampshire.

Absolutely right Jonny German about Tiedemann. Please remind us in 2-3 years.

Early still but for anyone starting to consider the draft, the Jays have 4 picks on Sunday. #3/4 are 77/78.

There is a top 250 list of players. I expect that the Jays will pick from the top 150 on the list. As Jonny German said #91 was 3rd round pick R Tiedemann. I wish I knew where Tiedemann was ranked on last years 250 list. We all love that pick.

Easy enough to find out. The 2021 draft tracker is still online. Tiedemann was ranked #125, Thus in theory was an overdraft at pick #91. That is where scouting comes in very handy. Hoglund was ranked #22 (picked with #19). Hayden Juenger (now in AA with a 3.63 ERA over 16 starts 52 IP 3.6 BB/9 vs 11.3 SO/9 at age 21) was the first unranked guy the Jays took (with pick #182 in round 6). In round 20 the Jays took Luke Holman with pick #602 (ranked #172 and did not sign - 5.68 ERA this year in college). Irv Carter (round 5 pick #152, ranked #118) was the first pick that was ranked higher than the Jays drafted him (#10 on the Jays prospect list now - 9.17 ERA in rookie ball at age 19 - 17 2/3 IP 26 H 7 HR 7 BB 24 SO)

Bottom line? How a guy is ranked doesn't tell us the whole story. Scouting is critical on prospects pre-draft. The Jays best pick ever has to be Roy Halladay (HOF) drafted in the first round with pick #17 - only Todd Helton was close in WAR (Halladay had 64.2 vs Helton 61.8) with Darin Erstad next at 32.3 (first overall pick). Only 7 first rounders got 10+ WAR that year, with 6 more being positive WAR, and 6 more reaching but having negative WAR. 3 guys were drafted before Halladay who never even reached the majors. 13 guys got bigger bonuses than Halladay (Helton got just a tiny bit less than Roy did).

A more extreme example? Sure - Dave Stieb was a 5th round pick. More recent? 2010 saw the Jays take Noah Syndergaard with pick #38 and he is now #6 in WAR for that year's first round. 2016 saw the Jays take Bo Bichette in the 2nd round (10.5) and Cavan Biggio in the 5th (6.2). Best so far from round 1 is Will Smith (8.8 WAR) with 2 others at 5+ WAR (Cal Quantrill & Gavin Lux). The 2nd round saw Bryan Reynolds (12.4), Pete Alonso (11.9) drafted as well as Bo.

so the Jays can get a top quality guy with their low pick (#23).

Maybe like... Kumar Rocker? There was a time not too long ago when he was among the best pitchers in college, and just a year ago he was a Top 10 pick. He's certainly a bigger injury risk, but there's so much upside, both as a top-end starter OR even as a fast-tracked to MLB reliever. There are apparently teams considering him as a potential 2022 late-season bullpen arm - and obviously, that's a big stretch, but it's not unprecedented and Rocker is one of the oldest and most experienced prospects in this draft. Again, there's obviously a lot to consider with medicals/physicals, etc... but Rocker has passed the eye test this season in indy ball and I think some team is going to roll the dice on him in back-end of the first round. Maybe even us?

Thanks John N for the link.

I believe you have to sign round 4-10 or lose the $ value. They paid Irv Carter $500,000 over the slot value of $350,000. 2nd highest bonus paid. So they had to sign him.

I also looked at the 2020 and 2019 drafts. Austin Martin threw off the 2020 draft budget by getting a high bonus which Frasso and Z Britton paid for with below slot signing bonuses.

I am very impressed by Frasso so Martin may best be remembered by me as being the reason we picked Frasso. 100 mpg FB.

Spencer Horwitz made BA's hot sheet.

The Blue Jays first baseman didn’t waste much time getting acclimated to Triple-A as he made the Hot Sheet in his first week. Horwitz had two three-hit games on the week and collected a hit in five out of six contests. He collected his first Triple-A home run on Saturday in a 3-for-4 effort where Horwitz came a triple short of the cycle. With an excellent combination of above-average power, on-base ability and bat-to-ball skills, Horwitz is one of the more underappreciated bat-first prospects in the minor leagues. (GP)

BA listed Ricky T as one of the top risers at the mid season point. Here is an excerpt of their reasons.

Despite plus velocity on his fastball, Tiedemann’s true standouts are his secondary pitches. With a plus slider and double-plus changeup, the lefthander has two pitches he can go to as out pitches against either handedness. His slider is a low-80s true sweeper with over a foot of horizontal break and spin rates in the 2,600 rpm range. Opposing hitters have hit .109/.163/.130 against his slider this season with a greater than 50% whiff rate.

His changeup is without question Tiedemann’s best pitch and his go-to secondary. Sitting mid 80s with tumble and heavy arm-side run, opposing hitters swing 50% of the time against the pitch but have done little to no damage, hitting .155/.188/.217 against his cambio.

Tiedemann and Moreno are the only two prospects I wouldn't want to see traded right now.