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I'm going back on that same train
that brought me here before
While my baby walks the streets of Baltimore


We haven't seen this bunch yet. How are they doing, anyway?


Not great. It's better than last year, not that there was really anywhere to go but up after losing 110 games. They're playing at a 69-93 pace this season. Baby steps. They're not giving up as many runs as they did last season, despite the fact that their one decent starting pitcher, John Means, had Tommy John surgery in late April and won't pitch again until 2023. The other starters... well, they're not good. They're just not as wretched and awful as last year's bunch. And several of the relief pitchers have actually been genuinely good, especially closer Jorge Lopez and LOOGY Cionel Perez. You probably recall that Lopez and Keegan Akin, who's been decent enough out of the pen himself, were both part of the rotation last season - they went 5-24 between them, with ERAs over 6.00, so you might say this role suits them better. You might say.

The Orioles' best player last season, by an order of magnitude, was centre fielder Cedric Mullins and up until yesterday he seemed to be bent on proving that his 2021 was one of those fluke seasons that happen from time to time. But right fielder Anthony Santander is having something of a bounceback season and while Ryan Mountcastle's sophomore season doesn't look quite as impressive as his rookie campaign, that's probably because he hasn't seen the Blue Jays yet. Last year he hit .324/.403/.662 with 7 Hrs in 18 games against the Jays.

The Orioles have already played the Yankees 13 times - they went 4-9 - before their first meeting with the Blue Jays. They've played 8 with Boston (and won 5 of them) while going 2-4 against Tampa Bay.

So who's pitching?

Mon June 13 - Bradish (1-3, 6.45) vs Manoah (7-1, 1.81)
Tue June 14 - Lyles (3-5, 4.97) vs Kikuchi (2-2, 4.44)
Wed June 15 - Zimmerman (2-5, 5.52) vs Berrios (5-2, 4.73)
Thu June 16 - Wells (3-4, 3.86) vs Gausman (5-5, 2.67)

Baltimore at Toronto, June 13-16 | 245 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Leaside Cowboy - Monday, June 13 2022 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#415406) #
Earl Weaver... "ejected from both games in a doubleheader three times... twice ejected from games before they even started..."

One day, Charlie.

mathesond - Monday, June 13 2022 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#415407) #
Magpie, I think it quite funny that both you and Defector used the same Gram Parsons song in posts about the Orioles today (Defector's story was about the Angelos v. Angelos lawsuits going on).
greenfrog - Monday, June 13 2022 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#415408) #
Winning three of four would be a good outcome.

Remember when Rocky Balboa’s coach advised him to “hit the one in the middle”? Kikuchi should do something similar in his start. “Throw it down the middle.”
Magpie - Monday, June 13 2022 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#415410) #
the same Gram Parsons song

I did think about Randy Newman, but his Baltimore song seems to have even less to do with the city than Gram's (actually Bobby Bare's, I suppose.)
hypobole - Monday, June 13 2022 @ 05:58 PM EDT (#415411) #
Santander and Keegan Akin will be coming to Toronto it seems.
hypobole - Monday, June 13 2022 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#415412) #
NOT be coming to Toronto.
Magpie - Monday, June 13 2022 @ 06:22 PM EDT (#415413) #
Remember when Rocky Balboa’s coach advised him to “hit the one in the middle”?

That was Rocky Balboa? I thought it was Mickey Mantle's approach to hitting with a hangover.
greenfrog - Monday, June 13 2022 @ 07:46 PM EDT (#415415) #
Vlad’s wrist doesn’t seem to be 100%. Might be worth resting him (even giving him an IL stint) to allow it to heal.
Magpie - Monday, June 13 2022 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#415416) #
I think Kirk will get the Thursday afternoon off - day game after catching the night before, and about time for a Springer DH day.
92-93 - Monday, June 13 2022 @ 10:09 PM EDT (#415417) #
Zimmermann and Wells have reverse splits, so they may want to start Zimmer in CF on Wednesday night and then give Kirk the full day on Thursday.
92-93 - Monday, June 13 2022 @ 10:16 PM EDT (#415418) #
Guerrero's wrist looked pretty healthy on that swing.
greenfrog - Monday, June 13 2022 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#415419) #
If it's healthy, great.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 12:48 AM EDT (#415420) #
Wonder how the Jays are working things now... seems like lots of rest by making full use of Biggio & Tapia.

Biggio covering 2B/1B mainly (at 2B then Espinal covers 3B or SS), Tapia for some bizarre reason keeps getting tons of playing time. Well, in June he has hit OK - 296/296/593 but just 10th best on the Jays this month by OPS with Chapman close behind (889 vs 867). Just 3 hitting poorly - Jansen 411 (4 games), Moreno 393 (2 games), Zimmer 286 (0 for 10 with 3 walks) - before today Zimmer had a better OBP than Tapia in June, but now Tapia slightly ahead 296 to 286.

Biggio is a house on fire this month - 346/500/577. Seems having COVID did him a world of good - go figure. Others with a 1000+ OPS this month are Collins, Espinal, Gurriel, Guerrero, Kirk, and Hernandez. Bichette is close at 944, Springer at 898. Kind of explains the hot streak. When you have 7 regulars with OPS of 898+ over 13 days you know something is going very right.

5 pitchers in June have 0 ERA's (by IP: Stripling, Garcia, Gage, Romano, Mayza); Sub 2: Manoah, Berrios, Thornton; Sub 3: Phelps; Sub 4: Gausman, Merryweather; The rest are 5.40+: Cimber, Beasley, Ryu, Richards, Vasquez, Kikuchi. For pitching clearly #1 is getting Kikuchi going. Gausman should be fine, everyone has a bad game at some point, Richards I'm seeing as the tail end of the pen at this stage. Cimber twice allowed a run this month thus explaining his bad ERA. I'd put the rotation as Manoah, Gausman, Berrios, Stripling, Kikuchi right now (lord knows when Ryu comes back, if ever). The pen as Romano, Mayza, Garcia, Cimber, Phelps, Thornton, Merryweather, Richards, Gage. At least until I see Gage vs some real competition instead of just over AAA quality hitters (only faced KC & Baltimore). I see Merryweather and Richards as being on the hot seat now. Merryweather has an option left, Richards doesn't, Gage & Thornton have options, and for what it worth so do Mayza, Cimber, and Romano. IL guys Pearson, Vasquez, Saucedo all have options too.

It'll be interesting if forced to go to 13 pitchers who the Jays send down. Gage should be it, by the logic of him having the least ML experience, but Merryweather hasn't been impressive imo, and releasing Richards wouldn't shock me as he also has been unreliable imo (I get scared when he comes in during a close game). Who do they call up? 3rd catcher Collins (125/333/344 in AAA, 212/288/455 in majors)? Capra to cover all positions (307/374/443 in AAA, 200/429/200 in majors)? Lopez (also a Johnny Everything - but just hitting 216/317/343 in AAA) or Leo Jimenez (uh no, SS in A+ hitting 229/348/356) - those are the 4 guys on the 40 man roster. I think Collins would be best as a safety net for late in games so you can safely run for Kirk if Moreno is already in the game too. Plus he could hit for Zimmer. Capra is a nice choice as a RH backup given the bench is 100% LH - Tapia-Biggio-Zimmer and whoever isn't catching (both RH) if they aren't DHing. Logically I'd pick Collins, but Capra is a guy I'm cheering on (20th round pick making it is always fun to see).
Jonny German - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:55 AM EDT (#415421) #
I'm hoping Tapia can be this year's Joe Panik - a bad player getting more playing time than he should, surprisingly flipped for an effective bullpen arm. Who knew he had any trade value?
lexomatic - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 06:41 AM EDT (#415422) #
<br> "Seems having COVID did him a world of good - go figure."

Od like to request we don't make any comments like this on this site, even jokingly. It's not based on science, and it does real harm. As a parent to an under 5 where thr government doesn't give a crap about whether my kid does or doing the minimum to try and prevent that anything that minimizes covid is a big deal.
If anything the time off and rehab amd working on whatever hitting or confidence issues were bothering him helped. At best covid is a short term illness where we don't know what later effects happen - like bieber's face.
lexomatic - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 06:47 AM EDT (#415423) #
Guerrero's wrist looked pretty healthy on that swing.

<br>If it's healthy, great

I thought i remember hearing on the broadcast that a bunch of thr Jays had noticed that they were chasing pitches and decided not to do it anymore... and one of them was Guerrero. And that some, including guerrero, had been pressing.
Was doing some heavy cleaning before garbage day so maybe I'm misremembering , because I wasn't paying the most attention
bpoz - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 07:08 AM EDT (#415424) #
Tapia is having a comparable year this year compared to last. Grichuk is having a worse year this year compared to last. Both are 4th OFs which have value in case of injury (Teoscar & Springer (DH) & Gurriel hot/cold). Maybe Grichuk will get hot.

uglyone - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 08:27 AM EDT (#415426) #
Careers up until and including their Jays Seasons....

Panik (29): 2842pa, 96wrc+, 2.2war/650
Tapia (28): 1599pa, 77wrc+, 0.3war/650
bpoz - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:11 AM EDT (#415427) #
Panik had a fairly good career mainly with SF. He deteriorated with age. So far Tapia is not as good. He probably does not get a good opportunity with the Jays.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:30 AM EDT (#415428) #
Tapia has now grounded into 6 double plays in 174 PAs, and all of them as far as I can recollect have not been close at first base.  That's on pace for 22 GIDP/650 PAs, which is a very poor number.  On the other hand, he has only 5 infield hits.  How is it that a player who scoots from 1st to home on a double as fast as anyone on the club and probably in the top 5% in MLB can hit into more double plays than infield hits?  The thoughts inside his head at the key moment:

"Did I hit the ball?"
"I think I did"
"Where is it?"
"I think it's over there heading to the shortstop"
"What should I do now?"
"Oh crap, run to first base...that's the one over there"

The man freezes better than any player I have ever seen, but the timing of his freezes is just awful. 
hypobole - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:39 AM EDT (#415429) #
Tale of 2 games last night featuring contenders vs mediocre divisional opponents.

Pittsburg at St. Louis. Attendance: 37,398
Baltimore at Toronto. Attendance: 19,716

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#415430) #
But the TV audiences are much larger for Toronto than for St. Louis.  It may have something to do with Canadians on average having a different comfort level with large in-person crowds than Americans during COVID.  Nonetheless, the Blue Jays are 5th of 15 clubs in the American League in average home attendance, and only the Yankees have significantly higher attendance.  There is a big disparity in interest between the leagues, which I can't quite understand.  Colorado has a higher average attendance than the Red Sox or the Blue Jays, and essentially the same as Houston.  Don't get that at all. 
Glevin - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:58 AM EDT (#415431) #
To me, Pinto is a top-20 prospect (maybe top-10 depending on his D ) so very happy with dumping Grichuk even if Tapia isn't any good.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:00 AM EDT (#415432) #
The reality is Tapia isn't fast. That 2nd straight DP he grounded into was bobbled and he still got thrown out.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#415433) #
Lining up the next stretch of games which ends on July 10.  The Blue Jays play 27 games in 27 days, with one day off and one doubleheader.  It looks like this:
3 vs. BAL
3 vs. NYY
3 @ CWS
3 @ MIL
3 vs. BOS
5 vs TBR
3 @ OAK
4@ SEA

The tougher series are at home, and the less tough ones are on the road.    I am pretty sure that the offence will be fine, but it will really help if they can get 5 decent innings consistently from Stripling and Kikuchi to prevent bullpen burnout.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:07 AM EDT (#415434) #
The reality is Tapia isn't fast. That 2nd straight DP he grounded into was bobbled and he still got thrown out.

He is fast once he gets going, but it's the getting-going that is the rub.  Fast, but not quick. 
hypobole - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#415435) #
After the 2nd DP, I started writing a post about DFAing Tapia. My only question was if he could refuse an outright assignment. But I came up with the correct answer "Who cares?", so never completed it.

John Northey - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:38 AM EDT (#415436) #
Sorry lexomatic. I have a very dark- gallows type of humor. Agreed COVID is no laughing matter. Clearly for Biggio some time off then some regular playing time is what he really needed.
Nigel - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:40 AM EDT (#415437) #
Fast but not quick is part of the problem - but, “choosing whether or not to exert yourself” (as an annoying math teacher used to repeatedly say to me about my school boy laziness) is the other part.
Ryan Day - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:48 AM EDT (#415438) #
The man freezes better than any player I have ever seen, but the timing of his freezes is just awful.

I noticed that on Salvador Perez's "triple" - after the ball took that bad bounce away from him, he just came to a complete stop.

Great physical tools, terrible instincts for playing baseball.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 11:03 AM EDT (#415439) #
Must say the best aspect of Tapia is that he keeps this site going. The days he doesn't start, posts here drop substantially.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 11:15 AM EDT (#415440) #
How many prospects are definitely ahead of Pinto? Tiedemann, probably Orelvis and then I think you are getting into argument territory. Groshans for instance is at a much more advanced level, but he is almost 3 years older and still has questions.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 11:19 AM EDT (#415441) #
Tapia has been hitting well lately. As long as he doesn't start in CF or bat 6th ahead of clearly better options his presence is fine. Montoyo has been better on both counts lately.

Any word yet on who will replace Merryweather? There doesn't appear to be any viable option on the 40 other than Beasley, unless Lawrence can back up Kikuchi on 3 days rest.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#415442) #
How much do TV audiences affect this years bottom line? I imagine it's negligible. Whereas extra attendance is almost pure profit. As for Covid, maybe a bit, but there are lots of people where I live who've ditched their masks.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#415443) #
What's our best healthy pitching staff?

Manoah
Gausman
Berrios
Kikuchi
Ryu

Romano
Mayza
Cimber
Phelps
Garcia
Stripling
Richards
Thornton/Pearson


So if Ryu is done for the year then Stripling in the rotation and both thornton and pearson in the pen (if we keep 8 RP).

99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 11:52 AM EDT (#415444) #
Just wanted to circle back on the Tapia speed issue.

According to baseball savant, Tapia’s speed is in the 66th percentile, so as others have said, not very fast. On Mike’s point about him stopping and standing a lot, he’s 14th percentile in Outfield Jumps. So, I think when the trade was made we had this impression that he was a burner with great contact but no power (Otis Nixon with less defence). He is not that. He’s got above average speed, poor instincts, and above average exit velo.

99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 11:54 AM EDT (#415445) #
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/raimel-tapia-606132?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb
uglyone - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#415446) #
He's a poor man's Zeke Carrera.
Cracka - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 12:06 PM EDT (#415447) #
I don't think Stripling can be counted on as the 5th starter for the rest of the season - it would be an unprecedented workload for him; his career highs are 21 GS and 122 IP; last season was 19 GS and 101 IP. If he stays in the rotation, he'd be on pace for ~27 starts and 140-150 IP which seems way too high for a team with postseason aspirations. Unfortunately, there are no obvious replacements. Casey Lawrence has been among the best AAA pitchers this season, but he's not a long-term fix. Max Castillo is worth a look but has obvious limitations. Tom Hatch can routinely give up 3 runs in 4-5 innings. If Ryu isn't coming back, I think they'll add another SP before the deadline.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 12:11 PM EDT (#415448) #
As much as some hate bunting, I wondered why Tapia doesn't. Just found my answer. Since 2017, he's laid down 6 bunts. His success rate is zero. He has 3 sacrifices and 19 GDP's in that timespan. OMG.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#415449) #
I'm sure they'd want to upgrade on Stripling, Cracka.

But do you really think pitching 20-30 more innings than previously is that big a deal?
John Northey - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#415451) #
Jay priorities and why...
  1. Quality 4th OF: Why? Tapia sucks (73 wRC+, -6.3 runs on defense already and no signs of getting better) and Zimmer is not any better (16 wRC+, +0.9 runs on defense) - between them the Jays have gotten -0.9 fWAR this year. Tapia is 8th in PA for the Jays and played in 52 of 60 games. Yes, Biggio will take some of that playing time now, but a solid 4th OF would be a better solution. AAA: Nathan Lukes (0 days in majors, 302/370/441 in AAA), Logan Warmoth (236/343/400 in AAA), Mallex Smith & Dexter Fowler were released, Samad Taylor now getting some time in LF (262/352/401) - all 3 who are still here would be better options than Tapia imo, Lukes really has earned a shot imo (plays all 3 OF positions, mainly CF, 12-2 in SB-CS so not a sloth either) with Taylor having the versatility the Jays love (2B/LF/SS this year, 3B/CF in the past). However, if the Jays haven't used either yet I have to figure they see problems with them thus why Tapia is still here. Thus a trade is needed.
  2. More relief depth: Romano/Mayza/Cimber/Garcia/Phelps are guys you can count on, Richards/Thornton/Merryweather/etc. are guys you hold your breath with. A very solid #2 for the pen would be sweet so everyone else can move down a slot. But with Pearson coming back eventually and I have hopes for Gage I see this as a luxury item.
  3. 5th starter, maybe #4: again, a luxury as Stripling has done fine and Kikuchi I have high hopes for still - after all it took awhile for Ray to get locked in too. The cost of an upgrade would be an arm & leg. If Ryu comes back he could be a top guy anyways. Our big 3 are as good as you'll find - Manoah I figure has a Cy in his future, Gausman is at that level too, and Berrios if he is straightened out is also a top pitcher. 3 #1's make it so all you need from 4/5 is a few innings. AAA depth: Lawrence has pitched amazing in AAA (1.82 ERA) but lifetime in the majors is a 66 ERA+ guy so I see him as emergency depth at age 34. Thomas Hatch the Jays have been hoping for but he isn't showing it in AAA (5.05 ERA but good numbers otherwise), Max Castillo is very promising right now (2.06 ERA between AA/AAA with 4.0 BB/9 vs 10.32 K/9 under 1 HR per 9) and might be the Manoah of 2022 if given a shot (OK, not THAT good, but promising).

This is mostly tinkering for the Jays. The only spot I see a massive improvement possible is #4 OF because a 0 WAR guy would be an improvement right now. If they could get Andrew Benintendi from KC for a reasonable price (he is a free agent post 2022) he'd fill that hole nicely. Arizona's David Peralta also could work well (LH, free agent post 2022, 108 OPS+). Ian Happ with the Cubs would really be nice - plays LF/CF/RF/2B/3B/1B and has even pitched. But he is more an everyday player who moves around ala Biggio and isn't a free agent until after 2023 thus a higher price to get.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 01:16 PM EDT (#415452) #
Taylor Saucedo pitched an inning in the FCL today.
Cracka - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 01:37 PM EDT (#415454) #
Actually, I think if there's anyone that you'd want to push to their max this season, it's Stripling. He's 32, pitching better than ever, and about to be a free agent. But he's going to be called upon to pitch important innings in the postseason, which could be longer than ever this year. Optimistically, this is a 180+ game season, and it seems like Montoyo is managing for the long haul (rest days, DH rotation, early hooks for SPs, etc.).
ayjackson - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 01:49 PM EDT (#415455) #
Just suddenly had draft withdrawal and realized that the Rule 4 draft is now a July event (17th - 19th). Where do we pick? Any supplementals?
ISLAND BOY - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#415457) #
The Jays pick 23rd for the first time in team history. They get two supplemental picks for losing Marcus Semien and Robbie Ray and these will probably be in the 70-75 range of the draft order.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 02:30 PM EDT (#415458) #
The Yankees have the exact same needs as the Jays - relief pitching, a guy who can handle CF, and potentially a depth starter because they don’t have much waiting in the wings. It may be worth paying a steeper price for a good fit just to keep them away from your division rival.
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 02:38 PM EDT (#415459) #
Tapia had been in the 80-90 percentile range as a runner until this year... he's slowed down significantly this year. His Outfield Jumps are also far worse than his career norms. I don't know why his defence and speed seem to have significantly declined - perhaps something has been nagging - an ankle or suchlike. Or perhaps he's just older and slower.

Regardless, I think the Jays are interested in him because they think there's a better hitter somewhere in there. And so far that idea has looked pretty good: his xWOBA and xWOBA on contact are both significantly above his previous career highs. I definitely want to see whether that continues... and hope there's some regression to his previous levels on his defence and speed.
ayjackson - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#415460) #
Thank you, Island Boy.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#415461) #
Tapia in CF again today.  Kikuchi has been much more of an even FB/GB pitcher this year. 

Chapman is at 3B and Biggio at 2B, while Espinal gets a day off.  That's a good call, but all the more reason to have Zimmer in CF if you absoluetly must give Springer a day out of CF today instead of tomorrow or Thursday.  The defence down the middle of the diamond is now weak and Kikuchi needs all the help he can get. 
Lylemcr - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:07 PM EDT (#415462) #
To me, the jays offense is locked in. I think the next couple weeks with Moreno will tell what they need to do for offense. I could live with Biggio as a 4th OF. If we can get a 4th OF for a second tier prospect, I could live with that. To be honest, that offense is so locked in now, I am not sure how much upgrading is needed. But injuries do happen.... I definitely would not trade Orelvis, Groshans or Tiedemann for this.

It would be nice to have a 6th starter in the bullpen like Stripling. I definitely would not trade Orelvis, Groshans or Tiedemann for this.

In the end, it is the bullpen that needs that Strikeout arm to come in tough situations. I don't see that right now. I would consider trade Orelvis, Groshans or Tiedemann for this, if it was a young fireballer that they could control for 2-3 more years.

That being said. I am looking forward to the weekend with the yankees. The Jays seem to be firing on all cylinders



Gerry - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:08 PM EDT (#415463) #
Merryweather to the IL. Beasley back.

Ryu to have season ending surgery.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#415464) #
Tiedemann has to be close to untouchable at this point. He could be in the rotation by 2024.
Chuck - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:15 PM EDT (#415465) #
all the more reason to have Zimmer in CF if you absoluetly must give Springer a day out of CF

Zimmer seems intent on investigating the question: Just how poor offensively does our best defensive CF have to be to cede the position to Tapia? It would seem that batting under a buck would do it. Hitting at even his crappy career rate would guarantee Zimmer loads of playing time.

Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#415466) #
Tiedemann could be in the rotation by 2022.  Obviously you don't want to rush a pitcher, but if you send him to double A now and he absolutely crushes it for 2 months, then you have to think about that.  There are pitchers who are ready at age 20. 
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#415467) #
Here's a complete Change of Subject. I've been doing some reading up on the legendary Braves shortstop Rabbit Maranville and I came across this photo:



If you peer very closely at his cap, you'll notice the swastika. Okay, it was 1914, but couldn't they see into the future?
lexomatic - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:20 PM EDT (#415468) #
<br>apparently Ryu getting elbow surgery done for year maybe with Jays
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#415469) #
Atkins says they don't know yet if Ryu needs Tommy John surgery (which he had previously, in 2004 when he was 17) or something not quite as drastic.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:24 PM EDT (#415470) #
Zimmer has looked absolutely horrible against LHP and struck out in 10 of 18 PAs.  Against RHP, his W, K and IsoP is within spitting distance of his career norms, but his BABIP is .160 instead of his career .329.  Here's the link.  As far as I am concerned, it's an obvious error to put Tapia in CF rather than Zimmer.  It's looking at small sample sizes of offence in isolation.  It's particularly bizarre because Zimmer has, by far, the better career record but has had 1/3 the opportunity that Tapia has. 

I guarantee that neither Tampa nor Houston would do this. 
Cracka - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:33 PM EDT (#415471) #
Tiedemann could be in the rotation by 2022

I think you're the first person to say this, and I bet you won't be the last. Even Ross Atkins thinks "He has the stuff to compete right now in the major leagues" and now with Ryu done for the year, it opens the door a little bit wider. Not saying it will happen, but it's absolutely a possibility when you look at Tiedemann vs. other arms in the system and think about who could help us in September. I don't think there's anyway that we'll have to wait until 2024 to see him debut. It was just three seasons ago, that we had an even younger teenager (Elvis Luciano) on the MLB roster for most of the season.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#415472) #
Longenhagen describes Tiedemann as having "mid-rotation ceiling".  He has a 45+ grade.  In January, 2021, Longenhangen had Alek Manoah with a 45+ grade.  He had made 6 starts in low A ball in 2019 with a 2.65 ERA and 14.2K/9IP.  After three triple A starts in 2021, Manoah was in the major league rotation and if he ever did have a mid-rotation ceiling, has well surpassed it. 
SK in NJ - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#415473) #
Ryu's injury prognosis isn't all that surprising, but still leaves the rotation a bit vulnerable due to lack of quality upper minors SP depth. I wonder if the Jays look at Montas at the deadline. Similar situation as Berrios last season.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#415474) #
Agreed, Mike. It's hardly fair to look at Zimmer's sporadic playing time and draw any conclusions from the results, just like it was unfair when Biggio got off to a slow start and then rode the pine. A bad team would be smart to acquire Zimmer and play him everyday vs. RHP and see what he can do, because it wouldn't take much for him to add value.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:46 PM EDT (#415475) #
If you are concerned about his workload, you could apprentice him in the double A pen and give him a relief role with the big club later on (as the White Sox did with Chris Sale).  There are lots of ways to do it. 

I'm not saying that they will do any of this or that they should. I'm just saying that there's no point keeping him around a level which he absolutely dominates.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#415476) #
Here's the story on the 1914 swastika, Magpie. 
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:53 PM EDT (#415477) #
it's an obvious error to put Tapia in CF

I think it means they haven't abandoned the Raimel Tapia Project. Which would indeed be premature if they believe, as they must, that there's really something there that can be unlocked. I don't see it either, and I think these projects almost never work anyway, occasional exceptions notwithstanding. Perhaps more to the point, these projects usually require more time to work, if they do, than a contending team actually has. (It didn't much matter to a team that went 75-87 that Jose Bautista spent the first five months of 2009 hitting worse than ever before, like he'd become a backup shortstop or something.)

Still, I'm sure there's some organizational reluctance to go up to Tapia now and say "well, we asked you to change the way you hit, you did what we asked, it didn't work, you're worse than before you got here. Them's the breaks. See ya."
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#415478) #
Yeah, I eventually found the swastika explained elsewhere. It would be like putting a four leaf clover on your uniform today, I suppose.
GabrielSyme - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#415479) #
Still, I'm sure there's some organizational reluctance to go up to Tapia now and say "well, we asked you to change the way you hit, you did what we asked, it didn't work, you're worse than before you got here. Them's the breaks. See ya."

Well, I should hope there would be, especially since after a slow start - not unexpected when you're asking someone to change the way he hits - he's been an above-average hitter for the past month, and he's underperformed his expected statistics. There's ample reason to think he's already a better hitter than when we traded for him, and bailing on an experiment that's already looking fairly promising would be foolish.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#415480) #
At least we've discovered why Colorado was so reluctant to play Tapia in CF. I remember we were wondering at the time of the trade.
92-93 - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#415481) #
They don't need to abandon the Tapia project, they should just stop playing him in CF. Hernandez should play CF if Springer needs to DH and they refuse to start Zimmer.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#415482) #
a slow start - not unexpected when you're asking someone to change the way he hits

That's true, and in retrospect the worst thing that happened to the Tapia Project was the Hernandez injury. Hernandez hurt himself the very first week and Tapia got a field promotion he was not at all ready for.
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 05:17 PM EDT (#415483) #
The problem with Tapia isn't that he can't be a little better as a hitter- and hitting the ball very hard sometimes- it's the other things.  He's a terrible fielder and a poor baserunner in important ways.  
Playing him in CF is pushing his areas of weakness well past the breaking point. 
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 05:19 PM EDT (#415484) #
And I might say that "projects"  that need to be pursued beyond 1/3 of a season generally are a bad idea when you are trying to win now. 
bpoz - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 05:28 PM EDT (#415485) #
To get more revenue a team needs to:-
1) Be in a playoff race.

2)Making the playoffs.

3) Advance deep into the playoffs. This also will stimulate interest and income for the next year.

We can expect more injuries. Ryu is down but so is Mize in Detroit.

Pearson can earn his promotion over his next 5-8 outings. Lawrence, Hatch and Castillo seem close to ready.

You generally need about 8 starters and quite a lot of relievers.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#415486) #
This is a team with weird outfield personnel, once we get past George Springer. Tapia only approaches competence in LF, Hernandez in RF. And let's emphasize the word "approaches" in both cases. The best outfield arm is in LF, carried by a guy with less than 300 pro games as an outfielder, all at the major league level. Zimmer is certainly the best defender, but he's a pretty weird player himself- he may be a decent hitter when he makes contact, but he simply never makes contact (he has more career Ks than all but three of his teammates, despite never being a full-time player.)
Nigel - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#415487) #
In the abstract, I'm in favour of projects like Tapia regardless of how infrequently they are successful. Its just that a) this isn't the year or the positional situation for the Jays to be investing in such a project; and b) I don't see the payoff being that great because he's a lousy defender and maybe a worse baserunner.

On Tiedemann, I'm hesitant to venture much after only one live viewing but I would say that raw evaluations of his stuff may undersell his upside. There's something funky about his delivery or arm angle that seems to give RHH's some trouble picking up his fastball. I couldn't begin to tell you why.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 05:46 PM EDT (#415488) #
I too don't understand what they think they can do. I mean, Jose Bautista always generated elite bat speed - he just couldn't figure out how to put it to use. And that project took a year before it paid off. But Tapia... I don't know what's there. If there is a there. There.

He's just too skinny...
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 05:54 PM EDT (#415489) #
they should just stop playing [Tapia] in CF. Hernandez should play CF if Springer needs to DH

Which would have Tapia in RF. I assume Montoyo's thinking in that case runs "no matter what I do, with this trio I'll have a lousy CF. Do I also want a lousy RF to go with him? Or do I go with the lousy CF and the semi-competent RF?"
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#415490) #
Biggio can play a corner.
Hodgie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 06:09 PM EDT (#415491) #
Alas, if only there were some minor league system in baseball where a project could be undertaken that didn't hurt a team with playoff (and more) aspirations out of pure stubbornness.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 06:13 PM EDT (#415492) #
About a month ago Jays were at 96 wRC+, with massive doom and gloom.

Past 30 days Jays have a best in baseball 138 wRC+, 10 better than 2nd place.

Now at 113 wRC+ on the season.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#415493) #
Ryu officially done for the season. Maybe done as a Jay if it's full TJ.


Interesting now. Stripling is a fine #5 most likely (and probably as good a 5 as Ryu was gonna be the rest of the way) and you don't need a 5th in the playoffs. But it's getting pretty thin there now - and stripling is a pretty key bullpen piece too.

Pearson hopefully will be helpful soon which would solidify us for the time being but we still probably need to add another good pitcher somewhere even if it's just another good reliever.


Last Calendar Year using average of fipwar and ra9war:

As SP

* Manoah 29gs, 6.0ip/gs, 59era-, 5.4war/32
* Gausman 32gs, 5.7ip/gs, 84era-, 4.3war/32
* Berrios 31gs, 5.8ip/gs, 94era-, 3.2war/32
* Stripling 17gs, 4.6ip/gs, 78era-, 3.0war/32
* Kikuchi 28gs, 4.6ip/gs, 119era-, 0.6war/32

As RP

*,Romano 63gms, 1.0ip/gm, 59era-, 1.6war/65
* Mayza 51gms, 0.9ip/gm, 48era-, 1.7war/65
* Cimber 72gms, 1.0ip/gm, 43era-, 1.3war/65
* Phelps 25gms, 0.9ip/gm, 60era-, 1.3war/65
* Garcia 60gms, 0.9ip/gm, 108era-, 0.2war/65
* Richards 67gms, 1.0ip/gm, 96era-, 0.0war/65
* Thornton 33gms, 1.3ip/gm, 109era-, 0.1war/65

* (Pearson 11gms, 1.1ip/gm, 63era-, 0.6war/65)
* (Stripling 12gms, 1.6ip/gm, 154era-, -1.6war/65)

If everyone else stays healthy we'll be OK but more injuries and we could be in trouble.
electric carrot - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 06:45 PM EDT (#415494) #
Past 30 days Jays have a best in baseball 138 wRC+, 10 better than 2nd place.

Once the weather heated up so did our hitters. It's fun to watch.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 06:56 PM EDT (#415495) #
uglyone - agreed with injuries problems happen, but of course that is true if any of Springer, Bo, or Vlad gets hurt.  To have 4 guys who have a 3+ WAR/32 starts in the rotation is a sweet situation.  The 5th guy was an All-Star last year and is seen as a potential Ray type for improvement.  Remember, Ray went from a 7.84 ERA to a 4.79 in the same season by moving from Arizona to Toronto, then Cy Young the next year (just 4 starts and 1 relief game here in 2020), and now back to a 4.52 ERA in Seattle.  Kikuchi has now had 11 starts here with a 4.44 ERA (89 ERA+) with wildness being his #1 problem (5.4 BB/9).  If the Jays can just get him to trust his stuff watch out.  He could turn the corner quick.  Then suddenly we'd have a killer 5 man rotation.  

Tiedemann won't be up this year - I see no way the Jays do that with him in A+ right now, even a quick promotion to AA would still be 5-10 starts before a AAA promotion, 5-10 there and we're near the end of the season.  I see him fighting for the #5 slot in spring with Pearson and others.
For 2022 I see Lawrence as the emergency starter - a quick call up for 1 or 2 starts at most thanks to his 1.82 ERA in AAA (he can't do much better), Hatch the Jays have been hoping would step up and grab that 6th starter role, but he hasn't (5.05 ERA in AAA) - although 2 of his last 4 were 6+ IP with 0 R allowed, but 2 were 5+ with 2 and 5 runs allowed.  He needs to show consistency at a good level (6+ IP 2-3 runs max each time) to get a shot.  Castillo is the one I"m watching - an IFA who will need to be added to the 40 man this winter I think, 0.77 ERA in AAA over 23 1/3 IP.  3 starts, and a relief that was starter length (5 1/3 IP) he has 4 2/3-7 IP each game in AAA allowing just 2 runs, 1 in each of 2 starts (both solo home runs).  That is what Manoah pretty much did there.  A bit wilder than ideal (3.5 BB/9 in AAA) but one can't complain about the end results.  I figure he needs a few more to be certain he is for real - just 8.2 K/9 career, with this year his best by a mile at 10.3 K/9 (mixed AA/AAA) vs 7.9 K/9 last year in AA.  His peak for innings is 130 so he should be able to do 160 this year at age 23.  Most likely he'll be fighting for that #5 role in 2023 but if needed I could see him getting the call this year.

Bottom line to me - don't spend a fortune getting another starter as odds are an arm and leg will be needed to add an impact arm to the rotation.  If Pearson comes back strong he could be a 3-4 inning a game guy, works well with Kikuchi I'd think (L/R mix, could alternate who starts/who relieves in a tandem setup eating 7-8 innings each time).  We have 3 #1's in Manoah, Gausman, and Berrios.  Better to spend any ammo in the pen or for another OF to allow Zimmer or Tapia to go away.

Ryu being gone just makes decisions easier to make for 2022.  No waiting to see if he will return, then holding our breath every start. At this point I think Stripling is a better choice for the rotation anyways.  Playoffs will be Manoah/Gausman/Berrios then either Kikuchi or Stripling depending which is better suited to face whoever we are playing (probably Kikuchi due to being LH - funny to think last year we had nearly an all LH rotation it seemed in Ryu/Ray/Matz/Kay all of whom are either IL or gone now - Kay on the minor league IL btw.
Hodgie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 07:05 PM EDT (#415496) #
The Jays will solve their SP issue and address their need for an impact LH bat when they trade for Ohtani.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#415497) #
Now that would be amazing Hodgie sadly, about as likely as me winning the lottery.
Paul D - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 07:08 PM EDT (#415498) #
My daughter started playing baseball this year, and she has some lovely volunteer coaches. Even though they're great, sometimes I see a kid go up to the plate and think "the coaches should fix his stance , he'll never get a hit this way".

I have the same thoughts when I watch Zimmer at bats
Hodgie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 07:18 PM EDT (#415499) #
Well John, when Atkins was asked about the type of pitcher they might target, he replied the Jays "do have some flexibility there to think about it in a creative way." Seems clear to me :)
Mike Green - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 07:31 PM EDT (#415500) #
That was pretty.  Gabriel Moreno was not noted to have a Grade A arm earlier on, but he's obviously worked on his release and accuracy.
Hodgie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 07:33 PM EDT (#415501) #
The only reason I mention it is in addition to the Ryu news, Rosenthal published an article in the Athletic today "What to do about Shohei Ohtani long-term, a complicated equation for the Angels". Ohtani is criminally underpaid, could very well walk at the end of next season, and assuming he even wanted to resign to play in that dumpster fire, at market value, the Angels would be on the hook for something like $120M/season for just Trout, Rendon, and Ohtani.
Lylemcr - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 07:56 PM EDT (#415502) #
Wow! Moreno has a gun!

The way Ryu has pitched for the last while, I am not sure it is the biggest lost. We need that 6th starter out of the bullpen.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 08:29 PM EDT (#415503) #
John I agree Castillo is the guy to look at as the potential fill in.

But I also think we shouldn't ignore Zulueta, unlikely as it may seem.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 08:33 PM EDT (#415504) #
Yeah so Stripling is our #4SP, not #5.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#415505) #
There's a rookie mistake. Good chance the kid with less than 200 pro games behind the plate has never had quite that play before.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:12 PM EDT (#415506) #
Unfortunately Richards walked the speedy Mateo to start the inning, which opened the door to bad things happening.
Dr. Zarco - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:17 PM EDT (#415507) #
Richards’s good will from ‘21 is fading fast. Looking as his yearly stats ‘21 is looking like the flukey outlier. I wouldn’t mind not seeing him again anytime soon. He’s given up 7ER on 9 hits and 4 walks in only 5.2 innings since 5/31. His sub-1 whip of ‘21 looks unrepeatable.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#415508) #
Nice hitting, kid.
lexomatic - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:21 PM EDT (#415509) #
Maybe the top 4 hitters will do something in the same inning
Dr. Zarco - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:23 PM EDT (#415510) #
Or do something at all. They have 0 hits. All 6 are from 5-8 hitters.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#415511) #
Looking as [Richards'] yearly stats ‘21 is looking like the flukey outlier.

Yep. The fluke part, which has reverted to normal this season, is simply his luck on the Balls In Play, which was just .203 last season (and just .132 as a Blue Jay. Which is insane.) His career mark is .295, this season it;'s .297, and this is what happens when you attach that to the rest of his game.

It's always best to be lucky. But because luck is always fickle, it's better to be good.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:28 PM EDT (#415512) #
Nice piece of hitting by Moreno. He's hitting .300 after 10 PA with one walk and one strikeout. Good start for him, especially when you add in the promising defense.
hypobole - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:32 PM EDT (#415513) #
Thornton 9 pitches - 5 strikes - 5 outs.
uglyone - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#415514) #
Another fantastic piece of hitting by the rook.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 09:58 PM EDT (#415515) #
And that's why you split up the LH batters. Make the LOOGY face some of the other guys, too.
electric carrot - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#415516) #
i want kirk for biggio here.
electric carrot - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:02 PM EDT (#415517) #
oh they did it!
99BlueJaysWay - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#415518) #
Pinch running for Moreno was completely idiotic now we’re stuck with Kirk on first base is the tying run. Moreno is very fast. It was an unnecessary substitution. Should’ve saved Zimmer in case Kirk got on
electric carrot - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:08 PM EDT (#415519) #
actually i think the subs were brilliant considering how the defense was going to be set.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:10 PM EDT (#415520) #
I was surprised about that move too.

Also, once the move was made, I thought they might take a calculated risk and aggressively send Zimmer on the first pitch to Kirk.

It’s too bad Kirk wasn’t hunting a fastball on the first pitch he saw. Lopez threw a centre-cut 97 FB that I’m sure Kirk could have handled.
Gerry - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#415521) #
Nate Pearson threw two innings for Buffalo tonight. Micky Moniak took him deep.
lexomatic - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#415522) #
Whelp the right people were up at the end, they just continued to do nothing
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#415523) #
Miles Mikolas of the Cardinals loses the no-hitter on a two out double in the ninth inning. It used to happen all the time, but I'll bet he's never thrown 129 pitches in a major league game before.
John Northey - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:49 PM EDT (#415524) #
Well, clearly the issues are Kikuchi and Richards.  Score 5 and you should win.  O's scored 2, Jays came back with 1, Kikuchi gave up another, Jays score 2 more to tie it, Kikuchi gives up a home run when for some reason he was left in to face a RH batter THEN they bring in Richards (probably the worst in the pen right now, but this is when you try to get an inning or 2 out of him) and he gives up another run.  It isn't like there was a LH batter coming anytime soon either. If Richards was to be used, I'd have had him start the 5th instead.

The pinch running for Moreno made sense, just Zimmer went the wrong way for a split second and that is all it took for him to be out - he really is a bad player right now outside of defense.  You'd think there would be other choices for pure defense out there who can also run the bases.at least. Sigh.  After Vlad got hit to load the bases and no runs came in I felt this was a doomed game.  Still, scoring 5 should be enough vs a bad team like Baltimore.

I still think Kikuchi could be good if he'd just get some self confidence out there - the guy always looks like he expects the hitter to crank one off him and pitches like it.  I think a good therapist is what he desperately needs right now along with subliminal tapes at night (you are a great pitcher, you are a great pitcher, trust your pitches, trust your catcher).
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:50 PM EDT (#415525) #
Nate Pearson threw two innings for Buffalo tonight. Micky Moniak took him deep.

He threw 43 pitches, 30 strikes, and struck out 4 of the 8 batters. But what's really interesting is who finished the game for the Iron Pigs. Remember Mark Appel? Drafted first overall in 2014? Still hasn't pitched in the majors, will turn 31 next month. Returned to pro ball last year, and he's now 4-0, 1.82 in 16 relief appearances.

Never give up, kids!
John Northey - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#415526) #
2 out broken no-hitters were all the rage when Dave Stieb was pitching :)  2 in a row to end 1988, then another mid-way through 1989 (a perfect game that time) before he finally got one in 1990.  Not to mention the couple of times he got to the 9th inning with one but didn't get it.
Magpie - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 11:00 PM EDT (#415527) #
The Jays really need to do something about this Mountcastle fellow. This was his 27trh game against the Jays - he's hit .340/.397/.651 with 10 HRs.

I doubt the Yankees would share their scouting report. Too bad.
greenfrog - Tuesday, June 14 2022 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#415528) #
Here's an idea. When the Jays pitcher gets to 1-2 on Mountcastle, issue an IBB. I can't imagine anyone would take issue with that approach.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 12:05 AM EDT (#415529) #
Yeah, Jays fans have become so fixated on Tapia, because he was so awful when Teoscar was out and his defensive issues. but Kikuchi is the biggest problem for the Jays right now.

Richards is only an issue because he's still being used in winnable games. But he and Zimmer are the most fungible on the team right now. They don't need to be fixed, they could just be DFA'd. Replacing Richards with Pearson when his rehab is done is looking more and more likely.

Replacing Zimmer with Lukes can't make the team worse. And maybe Lukes is a guy who just needs a chance, like the Giants gave Yastrzemski. And he doesn't need to be good, just better than Zimmer. That's a low bar.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 01:24 AM EDT (#415530) #
Agreed hypobole. But when your 8th or lower reliever and your 5th OF are the problems things are good. Kikuchi is signed for 2 more years so I suspect the Jays will keep working on him. I wouldn't mind a move to the pen and give one of the kids a shot in the rotation but only if the Jays are sure the kid is ready.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 01:35 AM EDT (#415531) #
I guess there’s a perspective where Kikuchi is a problem. But other than walking more guys than he has historically, I see a guy pitching very much within the reasonable range of expectations based on past performance. This is who he is. I think he’s only a problem if they signed him hoping he’d be better than a functional 5th starter type (who would give you stretches of quality and stretches of abomination).
John Northey - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 09:35 AM EDT (#415532) #
The main problem with Kikuchi is the team is 3-9 in his starts (twice with 7 runs support, 2 more times with 5 runs). Manoah they are 9-3, Gausman 7-5 (4 of those losses were with the Jays scoring 0-2 runs), Berrios 9-3, Ryu 4-2, Stripling 4-3 in starts (1 or 2 runs in each loss). Basically he is the only starter who the team has a losing record with, and it isn't due to a 'Stieb complex' where the team just doesn't score runs. Just 5 times he has thrown 5+ innings out of 12 starts, just once he didn't allow any runs, just once he didn't walk anyone (but gave up 3 HR that game), he has as many starts sub 3 innings as 6 innings (2 each). If he was an inning eater ala Jim Clancy, or pitched great but could only last 4 innings that would be OK, but he does neither.

What about splits? Dominated LH - 178/240/378 but RH hurt a lot - 259/381/497. With no outs 774 OPS, 1 out 802, 2 out 886. With Kirk (just 5 innings) he had an OPS against of 564, but everyone else is 746 and up. Might be time to see if a second Kirk game works for him. His clutch stats are fine (2 out RISP 595 OPS, ahead 630 OPS) so I wonder if he might do well with a pen stint.

Nice that the biggest issues are 5th starter, 8th reliever (Richards), and backup OFs (Tapia/Zimmer) vs the old days where it would be a starter in the field or a need for an ace or a strong #2 in the rotation.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#415533) #
And he doesn't need to be good, just better than Zimmer.

What's unfortunate is that there's something positively reassuring about watching Zimmer play the outfield. He's really good, he really knows what he's doing out there. Because the other three guys.... Gurriel and Hernandez are a non-stop adventure and while Springer's actually a good outfielder he's a little too exciting as well. Is this the play where he hurts himself? Zimmer in the outfield is a comfort to me.

But watching him hit is simply depressing. Not "I feel kinda sad today" - more like "I have lost the will to live." Nothing good is ever going to happen. Ever. That kind of depression.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 10:25 AM EDT (#415534) #
I don't feel that way at all about Zimmer's hitting.  He looks completely out of place against LHP and it appears totally permanent to me.  Against RHP, it comes and goes and it could just as easily be lack of work.  I mean, he's not likely to ever be a good hitter against any kind of pitching, but his career line of .219//310/.353 against RHP seems to me to be easily within his reach.  As a fine-fielding centerfielder and slightly above-average baserunner, that's a useful 4th outfielder. 

For what it's worth, Zimmer's ROS ZiPS projection is noticeably better than Tapia's and he's a better fit for the club now that Biggio is back.  All I can think of is the ball last night that was hit to Tapia early in the game and thinking "it's eminently catchable, Tapia is twisting and turning this way and that, will he or won't he?".  A pitcher watching is going to get the same feeling, and that's the last thing that someone like Kikuchi needs right now. 
92-93 - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 10:35 AM EDT (#415535) #
Splitting up the lefties makes it less likely you will get the platoon advantage. The Orioles didn't go to a LOOGY to neutralize Tapia. The two batters behind Tapia were RHB and Espinal and Kirk were on the bench, so Baltimore was well aware the Jays could easily PH for Tapia leaving their LOOGY to face 3 righties. They went to Perez because they thought he was their best option to get outs.
bpoz - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#415536) #
I looked at the stats for our 2020 pen. Some unknowns had good seasons but were unable to repeat in 2021. Dolis, Hatch, Cole. Bass was decent and is doing well with Miami which is in a weak division.

Atkins had to bolster the rotation in 2020. Then the pen in 2021. Both years he had success. I hope the farm or 40 man hopefuls can provide something this year.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 11:07 AM EDT (#415537) #
I dunno Nigel I think when you sign a SP to a 3x$12 deal you don't expect him to struggle to get through 4ip most outings.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 11:25 AM EDT (#415539) #
Yeah, uglyone is right. The $ and length of the contract shows pretty clearly they didn't think Kikuchi would be some generic 5th starter.

As for Zimmer it's a chicken and egg thing probably. He may need more AB's to get himself out of his rut, but he's hit so abysmally that the team simply can't afford giving him the amount of AB's he requires. He's 6'4", don't know his wingspan, but long levered guys really need their swing in synch to hit major league pitching.

Magpie - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#415540) #
I don't feel that way at all about Zimmer's hitting.

Neither do I, when I try to comfort myself by perusing his bb-ref page, where I indeed see there's all kinds of reason to think he can achieve a tolerable level of... well, still incompetence. But a kind of tolerable incompetence.

But then I actually watch him hit - and even that little bit of optimism slowly drains away. Abandon all hope, ye who enter here. Maybe he'll foul one off.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#415541) #
Prior to his last 2 starts Kikuchi's season looked exactly like one would have reasonably expected heading into the season. He'll be fine.
Hodgie - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 11:46 AM EDT (#415542) #
Abandon all hope, ye who enter here. Maybe he'll foul one off.

You've been watching games with Virgil again Magpie?

John Northey - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 11:47 AM EDT (#415543) #
uglyone - agreed on that. However, $12 mil a year isn't what it once was in baseball. For example, comparable starting pitcher deals: Anthony DeSclafani (got roughly the same deal as Kikuchi - $36 over 3) - he has only pitched in 3 games, 13 1/3 IP 9 R/ER. Yikes. Steven Matz got $44 mil and is now up to 9 starts, 37 1/3 IP 65 ERA+ (phew, thank goodness the Jays didn't resign him). Now, Carlos Rodon had injury issues thus only got $44 over 2 years (with an opt out) and has 12 starts 65 IP 130 ERA+ for SF who have to be happy with that. Texas signed Jon Gray for $56 mil over 4 years and over 10 starts (52 IP) have an 80 ERA+ to show for it. Ick. At that point we are hitting higher end starters - Marcus Stroman is next ($71 over 3 - 9 starts 47 1/3 IP 80 ERA+... ugly); Eduardo Rodriguez ($77 over 5 with a QO) 8 starts, 39 IP 87 ERA+ (ouch). Kevin Gausman (147 ERA+ over 12 starts 70 2/3 IP, league leader in FIP at 1.75), Robbie Ray (almost the same deal as Gausman, but $5 mil more plus a QO) has an 83 ERA+ over 77 2/3 IP over 13 starts. Max Scherzer ($130 over 3 with opt outs) 8 starts 49 1/3 IP 158 ERA+.

For cheaper deals you had Justin Verlander ($25 mil for 1 year but odds are few teams existed that he would've signed with) 194 ERA+ over 12 starts 78 2/3 IP. Alex Wood $25 mil over 2 - 100 ERA+ over 12 starts 61 1/3 IP, Noah Syndergaard 1 year $21 mil (QO) 110 ERA+ 10 starts 51 IP. Charlie Morton $20 mil 1 year - 76 ERA+ over 12 starts 60 1/3 IP.

Overall the Jays did pretty well with their 2 signings. Gausman is the class of the $70+ crowd I'd say (outside of the great Scherzer), for the $20-80 crowd Kikuchi's 12 starts 50 2/3 IP 82 ERA+ is pretty much what the crowd is doing (Matz, Gray, Rodriguez, Morton about the same or worse, better: Rodon, Verlander, Wood, Syndergaard). Obviously the book is wide open on all these guys still but overall Kikuchi is doing about what one should expect from someone in his price range. Sad but true. I really wanted the Jays to take the risk on Rodon last winter but wouldn't have used a draft pick plus money on Syndergaard while I see Verlander & Scherzer as being out of reach (not due to money so much as both having specific places they wanted to play and risking over $40 mil per for 3 years for a pitcher is a massive risk).

Clearly free agency is a big risk and the Jays picked well (1 win, 1 meh or flop depending) and Garcia in the pen has been decent for his $11 mil over 2 (especially vs the $5.5 wasted on Yates last year).
uglyone - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 11:49 AM EDT (#415544) #
In 4/12 (33%) of his starts so far he's failed to go 4 innings, and in 1 other didn't start the 5th.

In 7/12 (58%) of his starts so far he's failed to go 5 innings, and in 2 others didn't start the 6th.

So in only 7/12 (58%) has he seen even part of the 5th inning, and in only 3/12 (25%) of his starts has he even seen any part of the 6th inning.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#415545) #
I think the Kikuchi contract reflects a balancing of relatively high upside and relatively high volatility/risk for a mid or back-end starter. The Jays have tried lower-ceiling starting pitchers like Roark and Anderson. This time around they opted for a SP with a different profile, one that might be more useful in the AL East and the postseason. Whether it works out remains to be seen.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#415546) #
Agreed john - not only is $12m not much anymore, but Kikuchi probably will get better.

But even though its not that much, when youre investing $12m for 3 years I think you're expecting more than 4ip per start with bad stats - that's the kind of stuff you expect from cheapo no-commitment adds.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 12:21 PM EDT (#415547) #
Sure, the Jays may have paid him that money hoping that he would be better. But, his ERA, FIP and xFIP this year are all at or around career numbers. His K's/9 and HR/FB% are both at career norms. The only number out of whack is his BB%. I don't see any reason to have expected a different outcome this year from what he has delivered. I watched a reasonable number of his Seattle starts here in Vancouver and, subjectively, this is exactly his mo from those days. Some days he looks great, more often, not so much. He's a viable back of the rotation piece regardless of what you pay him.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 12:22 PM EDT (#415548) #
Dan Szymborski thinks that the Jays should aggressively pursue another starting pitcher now.  That was my view prior to knowing that Ryu was out for the season, and I hold it more strongly now.  There's no reason to wait until July. 
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#415549) #
Speaking of Mr. ZIPS, before the season, ZIPS 3 year projections for Kikuchi had him with 8.5 K/9 IP and 3.0 W/9 IP and averaging just over 5 innings per start.  The very poor control has had knock-on effects.  The projection was that he would be a good 5th starter; so far, he's been a poor one. 
Nigel - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 12:39 PM EDT (#415550) #
This could be viewed as evidence for or against Walker as the LHP whisperer, but it sure is looking more and more like 2021 for Robbie Ray was a career outlier/fluke rather than the new norm for him.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 12:46 PM EDT (#415551) #
Don't really agree Nigel - the previous 2 seasons he was a 1.5-2.0 war rate type pitcher.

38 starts, 2.2fipwar, 2.0ra9war. An rate of 1.75 per 32 on average.

That's solid backend rotation stuff and good value.

This year, though, so far he's been pure replacement level.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#415553) #
Gausman 2022 has been much better than Ray 2022, and Espinal 2022 has been much better than Semien 2022. Good decision-making by the FO this off-season. The Seager contract is looking like it could be an albatross for Texas as well, so that outcome has worked out well for the Jays as well. The winner’s curse strikes again.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 12:54 PM EDT (#415554) #
2021 for Robbie Ray was a career outlier/fluke rather than the new norm for him.

It's interesting, because what's most different about his 2021 and 2022 seasons are the results. This year's Ray is still the Good Robbie Ray - the opposition is hitting .237, which is exactly on his career average (not as good as .210 a year ago, but good enough.) He's walking 3.2 per 9 - not as astonishing as last year's 2.4, but also good enough and certainly better than his career average. He's giving up about the same number of home runs. They seem to be hitting a few more doubles against him, which may say something about his ballparks, or his outfielders, or nothing at all.

It doesn't seem like it's enough - one more hit, one more walk per 9 innings, and almost two more runs. But there it is.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#415555) #
Ray's FIP for career: 4.08; FIP in 2021: 3.69, FIP in 2022: 4.59 so the stats say he isn't as good as his career this year. Lower K/9, higher BB/9, higher HR/9, higher H/9 - worse in all areas vs 2021. By xFIP he is at 3.91 vs 3.36 last year and 3.77 lifetime. He just isn't anywhere near as good by any measure. Boy did the Jays avoid a landmine there by going with Gausman instead it seems.
Cynicalguy - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 01:09 PM EDT (#415556) #
I guess with Moreno's performance so far, that makes it 3 catchers the Jays have where their value as trade chips has skyrocketed in the last 2 months. Good problem to have, deciding which of the 3 catchers to trade.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 01:10 PM EDT (#415557) #
Remember Mark Appel? Drafted first overall in 2014?

Clealrly Peter Gammons follows us closely. He's got a whole story on Appel today.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 01:15 PM EDT (#415558) #
Ray's FIP for career

Well, that's never going to convince me of anything! I think FIP is a pretty dumb way to assess past performance. (I think it's best use is in providing a hint at what the future might look like.)
Four Seamer - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 01:28 PM EDT (#415559) #
Assuming Ray does not right the ship (it is still early, although sample sizes are starting to become more persuasive), did we ever get to the bottom of whether the front office acted wisely in prioritizing Gausman, or whether they got lucky in that Ray's vaccination status meant they had no decision to make? In other words, if Ray was eligible to play in Toronto this year would they have pulled out every stop to resign him rather than focus their resources on Gausman?
hypobole - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 01:29 PM EDT (#415560) #
Thornton's solid and efficient outing last kept us in the game. He's been surprisingly good this year - 2.59 ERA/2.60 FIP over his 24.1 IP. How's he done it, since his K's are down (to a career low) and BB's are up from last year?

0 HR allowed is a big one. Another is his 26.7 IFFB%, ranking him 3rd best of the 339 MLB pitchers with 20 IP. Seems hitters haven't been squaring him up much. Sure enough, Statcast shows only 2 Barrels/2.9% rate.

Back to those 339 pitchers with 20 IP. Top 30 has Thornton and Manoah tied at 2.9% Barrels, but also Phelps 1.8% and Yimi 3.2%. So 4 Jays top 30. Brewers have 3, 7 teams with 2, 9 with 1 and 12 with none.

Now the weird part. Most of these are doing it by keeping the ball down. 19 of the 30 have yielded Launch Angles under 10 degrees. Not the Jays. Phelps is lowest at 12.7. Only 4 pitchers in this elite group have yielded a launch angle higher than Edwin Rios' 15.2 - the other 3 Jays (18.2, 18.4, Thornton 23.9) and Michael Fulmer 20 degrees. Mentioned Thorntons IFFB% is 3rd best in MLB. Fulmer is 1st.





uglyone - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 01:44 PM EDT (#415561) #
Four Seamer - i'd actually tend to give all the benefit of the doubt to the FO that they preferred Gausman to Ray flat out. Too much outlier in Ray's profile last year - all of K-bb%, babip, and lob% far better than ever before. And of course Gausman had a much better fipwar than Robbie last year anyways (and in most prior years as well).

Gausman had a tiny tinge of outlier in his profile last year - slightly better babip and lob% than usual - but the rest of his line was completel normal.

what's funny this year is that he's posting the worst babip of his career and a poorer lob% than usual and a slightly diminished K rate but still on track to having maybe the best year of his career.....though yes i'm sure he'll go through some rough patches eventually.

92-93 - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 01:47 PM EDT (#415562) #
Semien is hitting .303/.368/.504 since May 15th. Last year at this time Springer had played in only 4 games. It's quite early to evaluate contracts.
ISLAND BOY - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 02:27 PM EDT (#415563) #
I think one point of optimism with Kikuchi is that outside of the two home runs last night, he really hasn't been hit hard the last two games. It's the walks that are killing him, driving up his pitch count and resulting in early runs in his games. I still see a pitcher with good stuff but he just has locate his pitches in the strike zone, easier said than done.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 02:39 PM EDT (#415564) #
Yeah, agree with 92-93 on this one. Just as a lot of players seem to have career years just prior to hitting free agency, a lot of players under-perform the first year of a big contract. I read something a while back on that under-performance.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 03:22 PM EDT (#415566) #
Of course, the Rangers are paying Semien for both offense and defense. So far his defense appears to have fallen off in 2022 as well.

And so far Springer’s has maintained his very high offensive production throughout his contract (roughly wRC+ of 140).

I like Semien and hoped the Jays would re-sign him. But I think that his seven-year, $175m contract is going to look excessive before too long.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#415567) #
Also, my point (in part) is that the front office was smart to bet on Espinal, as he has been excellent offensively and defensively at second base, at a small fraction of the cost of Semien.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 03:44 PM EDT (#415568) #
Espinal was the club's everyday third baseman by the end of last year.  Basically, the club didn't sign Semien to the long contract and instead signed Chapman.  Which makes sense if they want to sign as many as possible of VGJ, Bichette, Hernandez, and Manoah, as well as Berrios. 

Mike Green - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#415569) #
Biggio out of the lineup today and Tapia in RF with Teoscar DHing.  No comment. 
uglyone - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 03:56 PM EDT (#415570) #
The thing is Espinal already did this last year, so he hasn't really replaced Semien.

The good news is that Kirk has stepped up huge and replaced Semien's bat - which was always a worthwile bet.....but the way they used Kirk to start the year that sure didn't make it look like something they were betting on.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#415571) #
I'll comment, Mike. Tapia in RF is stupidity (and I think Tapia in LF is perfectly cromulent).. Rarely slag Montoyo but this and his irrational belief that Richards should be used when games are winnable are baffling. And he did the same with Chatwood and Dolis last year as well. The man is choosing optimism over realism too often.
92-93 - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#415572) #
It's been a surprise that we haven't seen this front office actually bet on its young talent as they did in Cleveland via long-term contracts. They haven't paid for a single FA year other than for Berrios, whose MLB-level had already been pretty well established. It takes two to tango, sure, but it's been across the board and not just limited to the 2nd-generation guys.
greenfrog - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 05:27 PM EDT (#415573) #
Ramirez seems to have been at or near the top of the front office’s off-season shopping list. They also apparently made an offer for Seager. There seems to have been interest in Chris Taylor as well. So trading for Chapman was somewhat of a backup option.

Ramirez (already up to a superstar level 3.5 fWAR) would have been the ideal acquisition. But the infield situation has worked out pretty well overall.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 05:32 PM EDT (#415574) #
I'm with you hypobole. My two criticisms of Montoyo are that he is slow to adjust his RP roles when its clear that someone isn't up for the level of leverage that Montoyo wants that pitcher to take on; the second is the inefficiency of his bench player usage (not, to be clear, on him using those players, just on how he uses them). On the first, its not all the time, but there are significant stretches when its clear that Montoyo doens't really understand who should be trusted to take on significant leverage roles in the pen.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#415575) #
I figure the contracts is due to the Jays having flexibility that Cleveland and other small markets don't have. The Jays can wait out players or offer what they feel fits their budget (ala Berrios) and if the player takes it great, if not wait until free agency if the player holds up. They apparently tried to sign Bo long term last winter but he wasn't interested at the Jays terms. No shocker there. I expect them to try with Manoah for an arbitration & 2 years type deal soon, if not this winter then next. The Jays can afford a $200+ million payroll or basically double what Cleveland could thus can risk letting players go to free agency.

What will be interesting is to see how the Jays act if an international draft is put in place with trading of picks possible. I'd certainly trade prospects for picks in an effort to get better prospects. Or guys nearing free agency for picks if the team is out of it (lets hope not). Depth is everything for the Jays right now - you need guys in AAA who can fill in and with the Jays success in the IFA market I could see them grabbing tons of picks from anyone willing to dump them (1st round, 10th, 20th even). Which again would keep the system full so losing free agents ala Semien and Ray last winter won't kill the team.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#415576) #
I spent a lot of time on that Thornton/Barrel Rate post that seems to have interested absolutely nobody. But like Charlie, I take a long time before I learn my lesson, so here's the other end of the spectrum.

Who has had the worst Barrel Rates in MLB so far? Interesting names both past and present. Again out of 339 pitchers, starting with the worst. It's tee-off time.

#2 Daniel Norris aka, the big Price prize.
#3 Zach Logue
#4 Yusei Kikuchi still in major need of fixer-uppering
#10 Bruce Zimmerman, starts for O's today.
#13 Trevor Richards.
Mike Green - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 06:05 PM EDT (#415577) #
Mark Shapiro wrote on behalf of the Blue Jays to Toronto City Council on June 6 asking that they not close Lake Shore Blvd for bicyclists, runners and so on as part of the Active TO program.  He writes that people wanting to do those activities have other places to do them in Toronto, but Blue Jay fans do not have other ways of accessing the RC.  It's baloney- fans can and do get to the GO, the UPX or other road to get downtown.  And the Lake Shore is a perfect place for active transportation in the city in the summer.  Sorry, Mark, but Rogers gets an F for ESG in my book. 

I have a pdf of the letter, but can't figure out how to link to it. 
SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#415578) #
If you put the Rays in charge of the Jays roster for one game (tonight), and they saw that there was a lefty on the mound against them, would they 1) play Tapia in RF like the Jays are doing or 2) have both Moreno and Kirk in the lineup together? I think I know the answer to this already.
Lylemcr - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 06:16 PM EDT (#415579) #
I have been watching Kikuchi for years now (I live in Seattle). He is doing the same thing here as he did there.

When he is on, he is on. He looks unhittable.

When he is off, he doesn't know where home plate is.

If Pete Walker could get Kikuchi straight, he could this years Rob Ray. Before the last 5 starts, he had a 3.38 ERA. Then he blew up....

That being said, he is a #5 starter. In many teams, he would be the 3rd or 4th starter. It is a good experiment, and he will come around to be alright...
92-93 - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 06:17 PM EDT (#415580) #
If the Rays wanted Teoscar to DH they would do neither of the above and start Biggio in RF.
SK in NJ - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#415581) #
If Hernandez had to DH and it was not debatable, then yes, they would put Biggio in the OF (he's handled LHP pretty well in his career). My point was simply that I don't consistently see logic in Montoyo's/the team's decision making, whether it's lineup decisions in general, or optimizing off days/DH usage, etc. Whether this is their intention or not, it most of the time comes across as trying to manipulate the lineup to get Tapia in there, rather than fielding the most logical lineup based on the circumstances. Maybe I'm nitpicking, but it feels like it happens way too often.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 06:34 PM EDT (#415582) #
Tapia is an FO thing not a Montoyo thing.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 06:35 PM EDT (#415583) #
I spent a lot of time on that Thornton/Barrel Rate post that seems to have interested absolutely nobody.

Uh, I was distracted by a thing?

I was actually wondering, however, what was different about TT this year. I noticed the HR column, which was very much a problem for him last season (it hadn't been before) and thought - oh well, there you go and time will take care of that.

But I do believe that avoiding the barrel of the bat - "inducing soft contact" as some of us like to say, fond as we are of fancy words - is an actual skill rather than something that happens at random. It's surely too soon to tell, but it would obviously be swell if TT was developing it.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 06:40 PM EDT (#415584) #
My point was simply that I don't consistently see logic in Montoyo's/the team's decision making, whether it's lineup decisions in general, or optimizing off days/DH usage

I strongly recommend giving a hearty shrug and remembering that the manager makes decisions based on all sorts of information we don't have and aren't going to get. At least with the modern player, not nearly as many of them involve hangovers. I think.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#415585) #
Incidentally - while "flu-like symptoms" has long been the traditional code for "severe hangover" I'm now utterly convinced that it's been replaced by "food poisoning." These guys, in all sports, eat at much nicer places than I do, and I've never been poisoned in my life.
Kelekin - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#415586) #
You never got to try my baba's egg salad then Magpie. The taste could best be described as capturing the journey of migration by boat from Russia to Canada in the early 20th century.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 07:14 PM EDT (#415587) #
I've missed so much.
John Northey - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 07:21 PM EDT (#415588) #
hypobole - that barrel stuff I just missed as for some reason everyone here is chatty today. Go figure. Wonder if that explains why the Jays let Logue go in the trade but felt they could fix Kikuchi? Richards I see as a fungible reliever - if he gets it together great, if not ... meh, on to the next guy.

Interesting to sort it by qualified and getting highest barrel rate: Jose Berrios 11.8%, kind of explains his tough year. Alek Manoah 2nd lowest at 2.9% (Framber Valdez in Houston is the lowest at 2.3%) out of 62 pitchers. Ray is 50th best (or 13th worst) at 8.5%. But this is hardly new for Ray, as he was 2nd worst at 9.8% last year while winning the Cy Young with Garret Cole having the same score.

So how much weight to put on barrels? Hard to say. Clearly it doesn't stop a guy from being effective, but I suspect lower is better as a rule. Lots of K's mixed with a low barrel rate = ace.

From 2015 (first year they ahve the data) to 2022 with 150+ IP you get #1 Tyler Rogers (1.4% with Texas, 3.08 ERA), best current Jay is Adam Cimber at 3.8% (#22). Alek Manoah is #63 at 4.5%. The worst ML is Tarik Skubal (Detroit) at 11.4% (4.05 ERA), worst ex-Jay is Robbie Ray (7.8%), Trent Thornton appears to be the worst current Jay at #180 (6.9%).

Hard to see much there really. ERA's in the 3's and 4's aren't bad yet guys with those have bad barrel rates it seems. I see it as an element but not as big as other elements in a pitchers resume.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#415589) #
In the past 11 games since Jansen got hurt, Kirk has started (DH or C) in 7 of those 11 games and the team is 6-1; in the 4 games that Kirk did not start the team is 0-4. Things that make you go Hmmmm.
Magpie - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 07:54 PM EDT (#415590) #
In the past 11 games since Jansen got hurt

I think it's 7 games, but your point holds: they're 4-0 when Kirk starts, 0-3 when he doesn't.
Nigel - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 08:25 PM EDT (#415591) #
Oops - that is the win loss record and times when Kirk has started in the past 11 games - I guess I messed up Jansen's injury date. My bad:(
Magpie - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 08:50 PM EDT (#415592) #
This is mostly meaningless, but here's the W-L record with everyone in the starting lineup
Player     W-L   Pct
Biggio    17- 6 .739
Zimmer    13- 5 .722
Jansen    10- 5 .667
Kirk      28-16 .636
Chapman   33-22 .600
Bichette  36-25 .590
Hernandez 21-15 .583
Espinal   32-23 .582
Tapia     25-18 .581
Guerrero  34-25 .576
Springer  30-23 .566
Gurriel   30-24 .556
Collins    8-10 .444
Ok, probably seen enough Zack Collins.
Kelekin - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#415593) #
Zimmer = winner
Kasi - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#415594) #
Kirk is also the personal catcher to the team's best starter. Not a shock since he's not catching Kikuchi or Ryu that he's got a better winning record. Berrios as well has been very good the last two starts. I guess the 11 games nicely dodges the parts before then when Kirk was catching Berrios and Berrios stunk.
Gerry - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#415595) #
With the Yankees steaming away in the standings the Jays are most likely heading for a wild card spot. How does that influence what you are willing to pay for starting and relief pitching? (With the Jays facing the Yankees this week this might change)

At the moment the bullpen is a weak link. Beasley and Gage are to be kept away from meaningful games. Richards and Garcia are tinder right now. That leaves Romano, Cimber, Mayza with Thornton and Phelps in the I don't know if I trust them camp.

I wouldn't be surprised if Nate Pearson or Adrian Hernandez get an audition soon so the Jays know if they can help.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#415596) #
THAT's the Vlad I remember from last year. Fantastic!
Kelekin - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 10:14 PM EDT (#415597) #
If you can't build a bullpen from internal options then you're doing it wrong. This is a bit of a problem spot consistently for the Jays FO, but they feel it is more important to keep some starters *as* starters as long as possible. Which I get, but also, some of these guys are just never going to make it as starters and could contribute in other ways.

I hope Pearson can be healthy and viable. Hernandez needs a shot as well. Eisert can't be that far off either.

If the Jays can make another Cimber-level deal happen, then, of course, we should do it. But we really should look to see what we have.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 10:20 PM EDT (#415598) #
Some blame the bullpen.

I blame our manager consistently pulling our starters at under 90 pitches.
hypobole - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 10:29 PM EDT (#415599) #
Talking about the manager, Pat was right and their manager wrong. What was Hyde thinking not giving Vlad the intentional walk in the 10th? I mean, thank you very much, but I'd really like to hear the rationale.
Cracka - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#415600) #
Say what you will about Montoyo, but Brandon Hyde is clearly worse. Visiting teams don't bunt & play for 1 run in extra innings. And I think every other manager in the league walks Vlady to set up the double play in the 10th.
uglyone - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 10:36 PM EDT (#415601) #
Fear of the Alejandro
John Northey - Wednesday, June 15 2022 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#415602) #
FYI: on BBTF I saw an article about TLR and how long his career has been and it got me thinking - what would it take to cover all of pro-baseball? Turns out it takes 7 people.

Connie Mack first played in 1886 for the Washington Nationals (age 23, first game was September 11, 1886) - Joe Start at age 43 was a teammate (final game July 9, 1886) - his first ML season was 1871 (first year of MLB sorta) with the New York Mutuals but sadly they weren't on the team together. Looks like his oldest teammate was Paul Hines who played the full season and more - his first year was 1872 at age 17 - soooo close to the beginning of MLB. Safe to say he heard stories of it. Mack's final managing year was 1950 with the Philadelphia Athletics of course. A player on that team was Bobby Shantz who would play until 1964, and as mentioned above Nellie Fox was on his team in 1949 who would last until 1965. So Mack played with or managed guys who were around from 1872 to 1965 - 93 years. Hard to imagine anyone could come close to beating that.

Fox played with a very young Larry Dierker (age 17 & 18 together). Dierker would manage until 2001 with the Houston Astros. A pitcher he managed was Roy Oswalt who would play until 2013 with Colorado. Nolan Arenado was on that team and is still playing today.

So to go from 1871 to today you can do it with Joe Start (adds that last year) - Paul Hines - Connie Mack - Nellie Fox - Larry Dierker - Roy Oswalt - Nolan Arenado. 7 players to cover all of pro-baseball history and more - Joe Start began playing in 1859 pre-pro ball and was part of the team (and final rally) to beat the first all-pro team the Cincinnati Red Stockings who won 81 straight over 2 years until they faced Joe Start's Brooklyn Atlantics.

That was fun to dig into. Not sure if there is a shorter route from the Cincinnati Red Stockings to today, but I doubt it. FYI: a fun story to read for any baseball fan is the story of Joe Start via SABR.
Magpie - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 01:11 AM EDT (#415603) #
I blame our manager consistently pulling our starters at under 90 pitches.

Not tonight. Garcia and Romano had both pitched just one inning in the previous week and they both needed to get into a game. Even if Berrios hadn't given up a couple of very loud hits in the seventh. It's that bloody Mountcastle. I'm ready to walk him with the bases loaded.

Richards and Garcia are tinder right now.

Richards sure, but Garcia? Who'd allowed exactly one run, total, in the past month? Who'd allowed exactly one hit in his last eight appearances?
Magpie - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 01:43 AM EDT (#415604) #
What was Hyde thinking not giving Vlad the intentional walk in the 10th?

He did get asked, and offered this:

Bautista is not a ground ball guy, he throws 101 miles an hour... If the count goes a little deeper, possibly. You've got Kirk and Hernández, some really good hitters, behind him. Give Vladdy credit, he got on top of 100.

I don't know. With the Zombie Runner out there, what you really need are strikeouts and Guerrero and Kirk are the least likely hitters in the lineup to give you what you need. So if you can avoid even one of them with no harm... I avoid one of them. Guys like Hernandez and Chapman are who I'd rather pitch to.
Magpie - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 01:54 AM EDT (#415605) #
Joe Start (adds that last year) - Paul Hines - Connie Mack - Nellie Fox - Larry Dierker - Roy Oswalt - Nolan Arenado.

If you want to follow the Bobby Shantz line instead of Nellie Fox, you can do it with Shantz, Cookie Rojas, Jack McKeon, Giancarlo Stanton. Same number of guys. I was hoping Trader Jack might help me reduce it....
92-93 - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 07:47 AM EDT (#415607) #
It's never too long after these silly pieces/comments about how overworked the bullpen is that the Jays are trotting out their best relievers because they "needed to get into a game". The problem is always how the bullpen is constructed, not properly utilizing a long man and cycling through the last couple of spots in the pen to always have fresh arms around in case of emergency. Hopefully the 9-man bullpen nonsense is officially put to rest this weekend.
Jonny German - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 08:20 AM EDT (#415608) #
It's not just the Jays tho - the true long man has become a mythical beast across the sport. 28 pitchers threw at least 70 innings in 2021 while making no more than 5 starts, and only 3 of them managed more than 1.5 IP/G.

IP/G	Player    	Team	G	IP	ERA	fWAR
1.80	N Crismatt	SDP	45	81.1	3.76	0.2
1.68	D Underwood 	PIT	43	72.2	4.33	0.1
1.59	G Whitlock	BOS	46	73.1	1.96	1.6
Magpie - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 09:40 AM EDT (#415611) #
The problem is always how the bullpen is constructed

Fifty years ago, Earl Weaver was moaning that you just can't win. When the starters are going well, there's simply not enough work to keep the (four-man!) bullpen sharp. So then they'd always be garbage when the starters went bad, as they all do from time to time, and the relievers would be needed. Within a few days all would be chaos.

Today's bullpens are twice the size, because most starters aren't allowed to face hitters a third time. But it's hard to see how the nature of the problem has really changed. It's always the case that there's either not enough work available to keep everyone sharp or not enough arms available to bail you out of all this trouble. Always.
92-93 - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 10:05 AM EDT (#415612) #
Has there been any update on the 13 pitcher rule? It was supposed to take effect on June 20th after a couple of delays.

It will be interesting to see who the Jays choose. Collins would give them added flexibility to use Kirk or Moreno as a pinch hitter without keeping them in the game. Lukes is red hot but would be redundant. Taylor, who would give them the most versatility, has picked it up over the last week but strikes out way too much and may need the consistent ABs.
scottt - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 10:08 AM EDT (#415613) #
The Jays are most likely heading for a wild card spot no matter what they do.
Now, the new playoffs format has the worst division winner facing the worse wild card team while the other 2 wild cards play one another. Those contests are the same 3-game series we lived through in 2020.

Right now that would be:
Boston at Minnesota and Tampa at Toronto.

I'd be OK with playing the central division but I really don' t want another 3-game series in the house of horrors.

hypobole - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 10:11 AM EDT (#415614) #
"Trent Thornton appears to be the worst current Jay at #180 (6.9%)."

Career barrel rates for pitchers may not be as predictive for pitchers as they are for hitters (though I haven't the time to check.)

Let's see how Thornton got to that 6.9%. 5.8% as a starter where he has most of his career IP. Only 5.2 IP the next year and up to 8.2%. Last year way up to 11.8%. Was looking like he should be out of the league, as at least a few of us hoped he would be. But he's way down to 2.8% this year. Randomness or something else?

Look at his pitch values. His slider has never been good and by last year he he pretty well stopped throwing it. This year it's been great and he's throwing it over 37% of the time. What happened? This.

“Last year, I struggled with putting away righties. My slider wasn’t playing very well. I feel like curveballs are normally better to lefties anyways, so I started tinkering with a new slider grip that [Blue Jays pitching strategist] David Howell showed me."

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/torontos-trent-thornton-and-minnesotas-josh-winder-have-distinctly-different-sliders/



John Northey - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 10:28 AM EDT (#415615) #
For the roster if/when it cuts to 13 pitchers I expect the bench to become (assuming rotating DH) - 5 guys: Tapia/Zimmer OF, Biggio IF/OF, Moreno C, and Capra IF/OF (giving a LR combo for backups everywhere). I see Collins as more useful since then you can run for a catcher and keep the other as DH with no fear. But right now I wouldn't be shocked if the Jays are working Capra (and Biggio) out as an emergency catcher like they were with Katoh earlier. Make your super-utility guys into extreme super-utility.

The pen is tougher - Safe: Romano-Mayza-Cimber-Garcia-Phelps, fighting to stay: Richards-Thornton-Beasley-Gage. Most likely to go is Beasley (most recently called up) then Gage (minimal ML experience) although I'd keep Gage around as a second LH. Thornton has earned his slot (for now) as the long man in the pen (24 1/3 IP over 16 games). Richards is hanging on by a thread I figure at this point even though he has more relief innings than anyone else (1 more than Cimber - while allowing 10 more runs).

FYI: 1+ IP per game relief: Thornton (16 G 24 1/3 IP), Stripling (8 relief games 11 IP), Beasley (3 G 4 IP), Lawrence (2 G 3 1/3 IP), Gage (3 G 3 IP), Kay (1 G 2 IP). 6 guys out of 17 used in the pen. Yikes. 10 years ago 18 of 29 did that, 20 years ago 10 of 19, 30 years (WS) 12 of 14. So in 30 years it flipped from almost none going sub 1 IP per game to almost none going 1 IP per game even with the 3 batter rule. I'm wondering if they need to make that rule even stronger - stay in until the end of an inning or until you allow a run along with 3 batter minimum. Just to keep staffs healthier (make sure you have relievers who can actually get 3+ outs each time).
Magpie - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#415616) #
I wouldn't be shocked if the Jays are working Capra (and Biggio) out as an emergency catcher like they were with Katoh earlier.

At the moment, Espinal is the emergency catcher.
Jonny German - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#415617) #
Taylor, who would give them the most versatility, has picked it up over the last week but strikes out way too much and may need the consistent ABs

You’re thinking of the old Samad Taylor. This year we have the new and improved Samad Taylor, who strikes out at a very reasonable 20.8% clip (and walks at a very good 11.1% rate).
Magpie - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 10:49 AM EDT (#415618) #
the true long man has become a mythical beast across the sport.

The long man is, and always has been, something of a paradox. In theory, you need one. But if you have a good rotation, in theory, you don't need a long man because your starters will work deep enough into the game. Except when they don't, and just how are you supposed to know when that's going to happen?

And the game conspires against you, always, and makes your best laid plans go gang-a-gley. Let's suppose I'm Jose Carlos Montoyo and I've decided that Kikuchi has become so unreliable that I'm going to save Thornton for Kikuchi's next start. As sure as eggs is eggs, one of two things will happen - either my starter will get knocked out in the third inning the day before, or Kikuchi will throw six scoreless innings while the rust grows around my long man's arm.

Is it simpler if you have a lousy rotation, like the 2021 Orioles? You'll probably need several long men. But none of them will actually be good enough to give you more than two innings anyway. If they were, you'd try them in the rotation.
vw_fan17 - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 11:11 AM EDT (#415619) #
Why T. F. are they still pitching to Mountcastle? I mean, at all? Should have been at least one, maybe two IBBs in there once it was 6-2 or 6-3. And why sliders / breaking stuff? The only pitches he should see if the Jays are up less than 5 are high 95+ mph fastballs to see if he'll chase or something.

Yankees released Ender Inciarte - a former gold glover who can play 3 outfield positions. What are the chances he hits worse than Zimmer?
Magpie - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#415620) #
Should have been at least one, maybe two IBBs in there once it was 6-2 or 6-3.

To whom? I assume one of them would be Mountcastle in the eighth, but very few managers have ever wanted to put the tying run on base. And for good reason. Even Mountcastle-against-the-Jays is more likely to make an out than reach safely. That said, whatever the scouting report is that they have for him - throw it away!

I feel your pain, I do! But perhaps not so deeply. I had a hard day and I packed it in after seven innings, figuring Berrios was done but Garcia and Romano would come in and lock it down without trouble. My experience of the game was not nearly so stressful!
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#415621) #
The other night, I noticed Jordan Lyles strikingly resembles Dustin Pedroia.

By the same token, Steven Stamkos might be a modern day Bud Abbott.

uglyone - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#415622) #
"You've got Kirk and Hernández, some really good hitters, behind him."

Fear of the Alejandro!

"It's never too long after these silly pieces/comments about how overworked the bullpen is that the Jays are trotting out their best relievers because they "needed to get into a game"."

Yup yup yup 92-93. Always hilarious to me when the team pulls the SP because the "pen needs work" only to need RP the next game and have nobody available.


"It will be interesting to see who the Jays choose. Collins would give them added flexibility to use Kirk or Moreno as a pinch hitter without keeping them in the game."


For me with a fully healthy lineup my bench is:

PH Collins
OF Tapia/Zimmer
IF Biggio
C Moreno

With the only one there I think we need to upgrade on is the OF slot.

Last Calendar year:

C Moreno 12pa, 130wrc+, 5.4war650
PH/C Collins 204pa, 97wrc+, -0.6war650
IF/OF Biggio 207pa, 84wrc+, +0.1war650
CF Zimmer 374pa, 77wrc+, +1.6war650
COF Tapia 451pa, 71wrc+, -0.4war650


As the guy with both the worst offensive track record and the least defensive utility it would seem Tapia would be the one to drop, though I could see why Zimmer's futility so far this year might get him cut first.
hypobole - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 12:03 PM EDT (#415623) #
Ender Inciarte -a former gold glover who can play 3 outfield positions. What are the chances he hits worse than Zimmer?

Gold glove D was 2016-2018. 2020/21 basically not plus, not minus.

As for the hitting, 2020/21 wRC+s of 39 and 59. So, maybe?
Magpie - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#415624) #
It's never too long after these silly pieces/comments about how overworked the bullpen is that the Jays are trotting out their best relievers because they "needed to get into a game

Generally, though, it always is one or the other. There is a theoretical equilibrium, I suppose, some nice balance between those two poles. And every manager who has ever lived has run in desperate pursuit of that balance. They might as well be a hamster on a wheel.

Today, one would think, comes as close to that ideal balance as a manager could hope for. Everyone is available, even Mayza. But it would sure be nice if you didn't have to use your best guys this afternoon. Because guess who's coming to town tomorrow? The most fearsome offense in all of baseball, and Stripling and Kikuchi will be on the menu.

Basically, what I'm saying is it ain't easy. It's fiendishly difficult.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#415625) #
Nah, Magpie.  It's a lack of creative thinking. Most managers are stuck in old ways of describing roles.  Romano is the ninth inning guy, and so on.  Meanwhile, players are off in the dugout with their iPads and are perfectly capable of understanding leverage. 

So, let's say your leverage chart goes something like this: Romano, Cimber, Mayza, Garcia, Stripling, Gage, Richards, Beasley.  So, for Romano, his role could ordinarily be described as LI of 1.5 or more (which is a 2 run lead in the top of the ninth, or up 2 runs or less or down a run with a runner on in the 8th inning). Phelps, Cimber, Mayza and Garcia would ordinarily be an LI of 1.0 or more, Thornton and Gage would ordinarily be an LI of .6 or more and Richards and Beasley would be the rest.  If a pitcher hasn't thrown in a few days, you lower the LI a bit and that's part of the discussion with the pen before a game.  To give a concrete example, let's say Romano hasn't pitched for 2 days, and hadn't been overworked prior to that.  You still maybe want a leverage of 1.5 or higher, but you tell Romano that he might be brought in earlier to get high leverage work early on if the situation arises and you might also tell Cimber that he may get the ninth.  Seventh inning, tie game or a one-run lead, top of the order up.  Leverage is 1.5 (tie) or 1.7 (one-run lead).  On comes Romano.  Or if Romano hasn't thrown in 3 days, you might tell him that he's coming in with a leverage of 1.2 or higher. 

When Richards came on in the 5th inning down 1 on Tuesday night, the leverage was 1.0.  That, for example, was an occasion for a higher leverage pitcher. 
Mike Green - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 01:20 PM EDT (#415626) #

So, let's say your leverage chart goes something like this: Romano, Cimber, Mayza, Garcia, Stripling, Gage, Richards, Beasley.

*Romano, Cimber, Phelps, Mayza, Garcia, Thornton, Gage, Richards, Beasley
92-93 - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 01:31 PM EDT (#415627) #
That Richards appearance would have been a good time for Phelps who, if he "needs work" today, will only be able to pitch once this weekend against the Yankees unless things go awry.
Magpie - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 01:53 PM EDT (#415628) #
Most managers are stuck in old ways of describing roles. Romano is the ninth inning guy, and so on.

The reason for that, of course, is that a) no one knows in advance what degree on the Leverage Index is looming two at bats down the road, never mind more than that and b) most pitchers are more effective if they're used on a regular schedule and they're even more effective if they know exactly when in the game they can expect to be used. You can usually only manage that with, at best, two of the guys in the pen. (Romano doesn't start getting ready when he gets up and starts throwing. He begins getting ready quite a while before that. So did Rivera.) If you're Tim Mayza - well, you've probably got today off, you pitched Tuesday and Wednesday. But you probably can't be sure. If the game is close and the bottom of the order starts to threaten - hey, it could happen! - you probably need to think about if you're going to have to pitch to Mullins in a game situation.

But no matter what a manager does - he can sit in the dugout with a calculator and work out the Leverage Index for every at bat (and managers actually do have a mental version of it anyway - Trevor Richards doesn't get the same assignments he was getting in April) - he's still going to be chasing that will'o'the'wisp of balance. The game itself is too fluid and too unpredictable.
greenfrog - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#415629) #
I've noticed that sometimes in leverage situations Montoyo goes with the lesser reliever (Richards, for example) and then when the reliever struggles and the game becomes less winnable as a result, he brings in the better reliever (Cimber, for example) to try to salvage the situation. I've never really understood that approach. If the better reliever is available and it doesn't impact the manager's ability to close out the game with good pitchers, why bother using the lesser arm in that game at all?
Mike Green - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 02:54 PM EDT (#415630) #
Tapia in CF again today.  No comment.
Chuck - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 03:33 PM EDT (#415631) #
No comment.

To you legal beagles, no comment means no comment. To we laypeople, however, it speaks volumes. I'm thinking you uttered these words absent your powdered wig.

Mike Green - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 03:36 PM EDT (#415632) #
It's an old person thing.  Rumination about that which one cannot change is bad for health.  Pass the geritol on the left-hand side.   
Dr. Zarco - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 03:57 PM EDT (#415633) #
It’s unbelievable how the Jays can’t get Mountcastle out and other teams can just fine.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#415634) #
Not watching the game.  Is Chapman hurt- maybe the wrist flared again?
99BlueJaysWay - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 04:09 PM EDT (#415635) #
So, is it time to have a conversation about Gausman’s approach?
hypobole - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 04:12 PM EDT (#415636) #
Looking like Tapia in CF today is about the least of our worries.
92-93 - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#415637) #
Chapman's wrist is indeed acting up again, and it has cost the Jays bigly thus far. Onwards and upwards.
uglyone - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 04:16 PM EDT (#415638) #
Guess our RP won't "need work" for a while
hypobole - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#415639) #
"Not watching the game."

Good decision.
uglyone - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#415640) #
Bad enough that he plays so much, but even crazier that Tapia is so often put in the middle of the lineup despite being objectively the worst or 2nd worst hitter on the roster (even the extended roster).
Polite Nate - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 04:49 PM EDT (#415641) #
I'd have Gurriel ahead of Tapia but in general I prefer OBP at 8-9 and BABIP prayers at 6-7 than the reverse to be honest.
uglyone - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 04:52 PM EDT (#415642) #
Me I like better hitters more than worse ones.

Speaking of - is Biggio back? Lots of very hard contact lately.
Four Seamer - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#415643) #
My comment from last week regarding the best thing about get-away day games is that they don't ruin my evenings not only stands, but is positively affirmed. Let's stick to prime-time, gentlemen.
92-93 - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 05:13 PM EDT (#415644) #
It sure would have been nice to have any of Gurriel, Moreno, or Biggio up with 2 runners on instead of Tapia.
Mike Green - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 05:15 PM EDT (#415645) #
Best anagrams of Raimel Tapia so far: irate impala, a mail pirate, and pi male Atari.   Will keep everyone posted if I find a better one. 
Polite Nate - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 05:24 PM EDT (#415646) #
And it would be nice to have runners on base ahead of Espinal, Bichette, and Guerrero.

In a closer game I'd have pinch hit for him there anyway.
85bluejay - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 05:43 PM EDT (#415647) #
The Jays may be the 4th best team in the AL East and as such should be careful about spending too much prospect capital at the deadline - This may not be the year to go all in.
Magpie - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#415648) #
Pitcher gives up a hit to Zimmer. Manager is out of the dugout with the hook so, so fast.
Chuck - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#415649) #
Tapia: 247/275/339; 78 OPS+ at start of day
Grichuk: 254/295/363; 77 OPS+ at start of day
Mike Green - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 06:04 PM EDT (#415650) #
And Grichuk's defence has been bad too.  It was below replacement for below replacement.  Adrian Pinto has maybe a 15-20% chance of being a pretty good everyday player.  At this stage, he's the main item. 
Magpie - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 07:26 PM EDT (#415651) #
It sure would have been nice to have any of Gurriel, Moreno, or Biggio up with 2 runners on instead of Tapia.

On the other hand, they did go 1 for 12 between them. So not much nicer.
Magpie - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#415652) #
Sorry, I couldn't resist. It was a hanging breaking ball in my wheelhouse.
Gerry - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 10:04 PM EDT (#415653) #
Casey Lawrence is headed to Toronto. The Jays need help after the game today. I assume Gage or Beasley gets bumped.
John Northey - Thursday, June 16 2022 @ 10:54 PM EDT (#415654) #
Sucks for whoever is sent down, but certainly makes sense. I'd be tempted to just bite the bullet and let Richards go. May 31st to now he has appeared 7 times and allowed 9 runs over 7 IP with 5 BB vs 7 SO 1 HR 1 HBP 11 H. Ick. I have zero confidence in him at this stage. My bet is on Beasley as he went a few innings today thus won't be available for at least a few days and that is the role Lawrence is there for. Gage as a 2nd LH has value in the pen, even if just as an extra thing for the other team to think about before pinch hitting for someone.
Mike Green - Friday, June 17 2022 @ 08:34 AM EDT (#415655) #
Kevin Gausman's anagrams are epic: Amusing Knave, I Unmask Vegan, Vague Man Sink, Am Nuking Save, Suave Man King.  (Savage Mink Nu and Vagina En Musk definitely played at a scuzzy bar downtown pre-pandemic)
Matt Chapman's are what you might expect:  Math Man Pact, Catnap At Hmm
Adrian Pinto however wins the prize: Rapid Nation.
mathesond - Friday, June 17 2022 @ 08:45 AM EDT (#415656) #
I have a coworker whose anagram is Marinara Baths.
92-93 - Friday, June 17 2022 @ 09:46 AM EDT (#415657) #
Different space time continuum. Obviously one of the 3 better hitters than Tapia jacks a 3 run HR and makes it a much different ballgame.

At least the bullpen is nice and rested for this Yankees series. Sweep em.
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, June 17 2022 @ 10:21 AM EDT (#415658) #
the best thing about get-away day games is that they don't ruin my evenings...

These 3 o'clock matinees interrupt my stories at 4:30.

bpoz - Friday, June 17 2022 @ 10:41 AM EDT (#415659) #
A .585 record is 95 wins, .620 is 100 wins. We are playing at .587. So 95 to 100 wins is a very good season IMO.

We have an ongoing discussion about our needs. Lefty bat, 1 or 2 more relievers and another SP. Seems to cover what most Bauxites are suggesting.

More pitching is always/usually badly needed. I am assuming the lefty bat is to balance the lineup somehow for better run scoring. However Moreno is off to a good start and Kirk is doing great. All 4 of Moreno's games played was as the starting C. We probably get Danny back in 1 month. So with our 3 Cs on the playing roster when/if all are healthy I see a stronger offense. I don't know how our defense gets better because Tapia is way ahead of Zimmer.

With Ryu gone for the year Danny can't catch him. Other than Danny's great Hr total this year he seems equal to his other years but his good bb/k has been slightly better in past years. Hope he gets back by mid July. Then he can show that he is healthy and get shopped if the FO wants.
hypobole - Friday, June 17 2022 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#415660) #
Different space time continuum. Obviously one of the 3 better hitters than Tapia jacks a 3 run HR.

You made me look. HR's this year:
Gurriel - 3
Tapia -2
Moreno - 1 (including AAA)
Biggio - 0 (including AAA)
Magpie - Friday, June 17 2022 @ 10:58 AM EDT (#415661) #
Kevin Gausman's anagrams are epic:

Are you still playing with that same anagram generating toy that way back in the day took in Spencer Fordin and coughed up Dr Prison Fence? (Of course I remember that one, how could I ever forget!)
Mike Green - Friday, June 17 2022 @ 12:15 PM EDT (#415663) #
Probably a different anagram generator.  There are a bunch.  No, I'm not doing it by hand the old-fashioned way...
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