Burnette is one to watch, a typical lefty reliever with a sweeping slider. He has limited hits since he turned pro, but has walked too many. If he can control the walks he could be a bullpen candidate for the Jays next year.

So, basically Aaron Loup?

He did hit 5 guys in 19 IP with the C's. That's Loup-ey.

Burnette was pitching 1-2 innings with 2 days rest often while with the Cs. Yesterday 3IP so days off may change. Will just have to wait and see.

Also congratulations to Gabe Moreno. Atkins praised him a lot which is not what I like Atkins to do. I prefer when he uses words that tell us nothing. In 2019 he said a negative about Vlad when pressured by the media about calling Vlad up. Then said he was going to get an impact player before signing Springer. Never said anything about Gausman & Berrios then made transactions.

Aaron Loup has had a long career so that would be good for IIRC an 18th round pick.

I remember the Astros first and then other teams drastically cut back their scouting departments. Jays didn't seem to follow. Just compared the Astros and Jays FO directories. Astros have 44 names total listed in their scouting departments.

Jays have 21 on the pro side, 20 international, and 40 more amateur. Seems the AA philosophy of not being out-scouted has stuck.

Glad the Jays are still big on scouting. Stats can't cover amateurs anywhere near as well as a scout can - projection is hard to do, motivation, quality of opponents, etc. etc. etc.

Measure what you can, then use whatever else is available for things you can't. Sometimes that means using human judgement.

Looking at the Jays site I see 7 dedicated to the Dominican; 5 to Venezuela; 1 each for Mexico, Nicaragua, and Panama; 1 for Latin American Operations, and more. There are scouts for BC, Ontario, Quebec, and other places in Canada & the USA. IMO this is a smart way to go. Strangely the Rays only have 12 listed with 'scout' as part of the title, 20 with Analyst as part plus others that are related to that. A good area to invest in, but without scouts they will lose out on finds like Kirk & Moreno. Yankees only list 3 with 'scout' as part of the title. I'm wondering if the Yankees & Rays both just don't list most scouts on the website for whatever reason. As both seem very well run so one would think they'd invest heavily in an area like scouting where the ROI is potentially very high.

The teams that cut back scouting don't just use stats, they use video instead of in-person scouting.

With Moreno coming up I thought I'd check the 2016 top IFA list for fun. #1 was Luis Robert with the White Sox, a CF with a 126 OPS+ lifetime. So a solid get for them. #2 is Kevin Maitan who is now in AA with a 601 OPS at 3B/1B so a flop. Down at #7 is Lourdes Gurriel Jr. who we all know quite well. No one else jumps out at me but given the youngest are still just 21/22 years old I figure things are still in flux but Kirk's got a real shot at being the best (3.3 WAR so far and climbing fast). The Jays had no shot at #1 as they had penalties that year due to signing Vlad the year before. Worth it.

Now that I think about it, even using video would have failed to capture both Moreno and Kirk. We would have had video of the kid no one can remember instead of spotting Kirk. And the makeup of Moreno that really impressed our scout would have been missed altogether.

Joey Bart has been optioned to AAA by SF. More proof that some top prospects can struggle. This makes Kirk look very good for now. Jansen, Kirk and Moreno have to show what they can do at the majors over a longer period of time. Health and performance.

Max Castillo is getting some love. FB up to 95. My source was Future Blue Jays.

Thanks, bpoz. FutureBlueJays is a very underrated site, with content I don't see anywhere else.

Cory Popham (Blue Jays pitching development coordinator) says that Castillo has turned his between-starts regimen around this year, and that’s made a huge difference:

"His routines have improved a lot since last year, which is a huge testament to Max’s hard work and also the staff in NH. Our pitching coach there, Jim Czajkowski and Evan Short (Pitching Analyst) worked hard with Casey Callison, Luke Greene and Kara Terry (strength coach, athletic trainer and dietician) and helped him with his work off the field. His velocity ticked up towards the end of last year (averaged 95 his last start, first two starts were 90-92) and has ticked up just about every start he’s made this year."

Castillo is not exactly a top of the rotation guy, but he hasn’t missed a beat since being promoted to AAA several weeks ago. International League hitters are managing only a .160 average. Space will have to made for him on the 40 man, but Castillo has to be considered a dark horse to be the next man up if the call for a starter is made.

https://futurebluejays.com/2022/06/05/blue-jays-minor-league-notebook-2/

I was just going to post a similar question -- is Castillo our 6th starter right now? Casey Lawrence and Tom Hatch are obviously in the mix for spot starts - but if we needed someone to take a regular turn for a few weeks, I think I'd give big Max a look.

There's a story up on the front page of milb.com on Tiedemann. The interview itself is fairly generic but there is some video embedded that is interesting. The video from the Canadians start is fairly telling - 5 of the 6 k's on belt high fastballs to RHHs (4 of which were swinging strikes). Obviously, the premium velocity is a part of the story, but there is something with his mechanics or delivery that makes RHH's have some trouble picking up the ball well. I noticed it live too.

Funny looking at prospects vs reality sometimes.

• Age 23: Alejandro Kirk hitting 322/401/477 for a 154 OPS+
• Age 24: Adley Rutschman: hitting 145/230/200 for a 26 OPS+ after hitting 309/427/515 in the minors this year
• Age 22: Gabriel Moreno: hitting 324/380/404 in the minors, just called up.

So, why is Rutschman so much more hyped than the 2 Jay catchers? Answer: 1st round pick in 2019 vs cheap IFA signings by the Jays in 2016. All too often that initial bias due to draft position or signing bonus will affect judgement by some. I'd rank them Kirk/Moreno/Rutschman right now. The O's guy might be best in the long run but I wouldn't bet on it. 1 year is massive in development terms, and 2 years is massive. I'm shocked so many ranked Rutschman ahead of Moreno last winter.

Just looked at a MLB top 100 list. Tiedemann broke in at 98, just a huge development for the Jays to draft a guy with this kind of potential. Throw in Robberse, Zulueta and third round pick Dallas, and maybe eventually D. Santos and it’s a fantastic summer for prospect watching in BC.

A. Martin was at 61 and Groshans at 72. Groshans is 8 months younger and is significantly outproducing Martin at the plate playing a level higher. Defence is not an advantage for Martin judging by errors. 11 in 30 starts at SS for Martin. 6 in 28 starts between 3B and SS for Groshans. Not a scientific measure of defensive prowess, but not Tony Fernandez.

Only real advantage for Martin is some pretty elite speed numbers this year with 21 sb in 23 attempts.

clark, I would add in Alejandro Melean who has been overshadowed by the others but is having a nice bounce back season and back on the prospect radar.

Maximo Castillo is a guy I'm cheering for -always considered a non-prospect by both scouting and analytic gurus - hope he has improved his conditioning and gets an opportunity with the ML team this year.

mlb.com has given the hottest Jays pitcher of May to Dahian Santos. 65 K in 33+ innings.
They gave it to  Tiedemann last month.

hope he has improved his conditioning

He has. Check out the quote from Popham I posted at 2:39

Pinto with another good night (the game is in the eighth inning). 1/3 with a double, two walks, two runs scored, and an RBI. He's having a very strong month of June so far.

With each month that passes the more I am certain the Jays traded Martin at his peak value. Repeating AA he is hitting 242/355/317 with those 10 HBP helping his OBP quite a bit. 21-2 in SB-CS is impressive, but if he doesn't keep at least a 350 OBP or jump that slg% he has no MLB future. Unless, of course, his defense is massively better than anyone thinks it is, but an 859 fielding percentage is so poor that almost nothing for range could cover it, and a 2.28 RF/9 doesn't suggest he has Ozzie Smith type range.

Simeon Woods Richardson is looking like the Twins best chance to make the deal work: 3.00 ERA over 48 IP 3.2 BB/9 vs 9.4 K/9 (that AA team is 4.45 ERA 5.0 BB/9 10.3 K/9 as a comparison point). Of course, if Berrios doesn't start pitching like he did last year and before the Jays will look bad.

Thanks for the FutureBlueJays site link - love all these sites out there, each has its own purpose and use. Checking an article from March there they list for breakouts...

1. Jordan Groshans: In AAA hitting 316/417/390
2. Ricky Tiedemann: good call, A/A+: 1.41 ERA 3.0 BB/9 vs 13.7 K/9 and 0.2 HR/9.
3. Irv Carter: hasn't pitched yet (19 years old)
4. Yosver Zulueta: A/A+: 1.75 ERA 2.1 BB/9 vs 14.4 K/9 0 HR - wow, should be mentioned with Tiedemann except a bit older (24 from Cuba thus only in 2nd pro season)
5. Victor Mesia: A: 064/120/064 - 3 for 47 - ugh. A catcher, but if that bat doesn't do something he should look at pitching as I'd assume he has a strong arm being a catcher.

17-year-old IFA Luis Meza ("a true catcher with an advanced offensive game for his age") is now the Jays #8 prospect according to Baseball America. I'll be interested to see how he develops in the coming years.

<br> I'm shocked so many ranked Rutschman ahead of Moreno last winter.


I'm not. Lots of Racists, and lots of people who don't know they're racist.

Rutschman hit .282/.391/.488 in 179 games in the minors. That performance should probably carry more weight at this point than a couple of weeks in the majors.

Apparently over the last year or so a majority of scouts canvassed by BA preferred Rutschman over Moreno, but there was a contingent that liked Moreno at least as much as Rutschman.

Quite the start for Cam Eden in AA. Only 4 hits in 18 AB's, but 2 doubles, 2 home runs. And 11 K's. So he's had only 3 AB's that didn't end up an extra base hit or a K.

Not a good night for Buffalo, who got shut out 6-0. Even Adrian Hernandez didn't have it. Came in with score 4-0, 2 on, 2 out. Gave up a walk and a sharp single up the middle to plate the last 2 runs.

But that also started the play of the game. The runner on 1st tried to go to 3rd which is where CF Chavez Young threw the ball. The inning finally ended on a perfectly executed 8-5-6-3-8 rundown. How often does the CF make the putout on a rundown?

Yes lexomatic, there are "Lots of Racists, and lots of people who don't know they're racist."


But to make such a blanket accusation when you know almost nothing of the subject is rather despicable.

<br>I don't see it as despicable. I think it's stating a fact. I'm not calling out individual evaluators. I do think civilly discussing things addresses things better than getting defensive about a non accusation ( which is how I read things, but tone is hard in internets). Tolerance of intolerance is a problem, and saying this is an issue how do we address it is better than saying this is not an issue.
America is a VERY racist country. Systemic racism is hard to learn to even aware of when you're in a position of privilege. Especially when there are active efforts to counter raising awareness ( all the banning CRT BS, for example).
It's not the only bias, but the 1st round vs international signing bias IS an example of a less conscious type institutional racism. And it's not surprising that many would prefer an American born and trained player over foreign born/ trained. Again I don't see that as controversial and its certainly not going to describe every single choice.

Hypo really loves to police everyone around. I wouldn't worry about it.

You addressed the 2 catcher rankings by certainly implying racism. How was that a non accusation?.

And if you read my first statement, I agreed on racism in general. And it's not just America, there are far more racists in Canada than many people care to believe.

More than a few Jays fans don't like Charlie Montoyo. Doesn't mean they're racists. Also doesn't mean none of them are.

If someone asked why some people liked Gibbons more than Montoyo, I could post "Lots of Racists, and lots of people who don't know they're racist."

The statement in and of itself is true but any reasonable person could tell I'm implying the fans who liked Gibbons more than Charlie are racist.

As to why I'm taking such umbrage? I was a supervisor in a very multicultural workplace. I was responsible for discipline. On one occasion an employee accused me of disciplining him because he was black. He was just lashing out - no one likes to get disciplined. He even apologized later, because I'd always treated him fairly before and because that comment wasn't his nature. But it stung at the time and I'll always remember it.

Pete Gammons wrote an article in The Athletic about Adley Rutschman and in he mentions that, from spring training until the present, more people have named Gabe Moreno as the top catching prospect over Rutschman when he posed the question to them.

Gammons also mentioned Rutschman's size at 6ft2 possibly being a hindrance behind the plate. Six of the top 10 catchers in games played all time were between 5ft9 ( Ivan Rodriguez) - 5ft11 ( Johnny Bench). Interesting that Quiroz was 6ft1 and Wieters was 6ft5. A side note on Bench is that he hit 45 home runs at age 22 playing a very demanding position.

Rutchsman has some easy casual-scouting advantages - he's a big strong boy with real power potential and a good eye at the plate, and apparently rates well defensively too (though tbh catcher defense ratings in minors often devolves into just preferring the more "athletic" types - hello Blake swihart - rather than evaluating actual catcher defense).

On the other hand, Danny Jansen is listed at 6'2", Sal Perez is 6'3", JT Realmuto is 6'1, to pick a few names.

I'd be more likely to blame the physical & mental demands of catching than body type for the many prospect flameouts.

One other aspect is that apparently Moreno has shown continued improvement on his catching skills. The Jays' philosophy seems to be "If you put in the effort, we'll help make you a plus defender".

Danny came up with a weak reputation defensively (remember the bat first remarks?), but put in the time and effort to become a gold glove finalist a few years ago.

Kirk's framing was considered quite poor in the minors from what I remember reading, now he's sneakily become one of the best framers in the game.

The Jays have been amazing with young catchers lately - Jansen was told to focus just on defense his first full year in the bigs, not to worry about his bat. He did that and hit horribly (70 OPS+). Since he has improved on offense each year - 85-105-156 (yeah, this year is nuts). He now has a rep of being strong on defense and his offense is now up there too.

Kirk was all bat when first called up, but I suspect the Jays sat down and gave him the same speech they gave Jansen - that he has a job, just focus on defense. So he went from 166 to 105 and now back to 153 OPS+. His defense went from 'yikes' to 'nice'. Now people like to throw to him as he is a solid guy back there.

So for Moreno I expect the same - focus on defense then worry about offense. But he already has shown a killer arm in the minors and latest reports are saying he is getting solid as a receiver too.

So now what? If you split the 3 between C and DH you get 1300 PA roughly a season, divided equally that would be 433 each. No one would be too tired, each gets a day off every 3rd day that way. Could do it simply by having it go Jansen C/Kirk DH, Kirk C/Moreno DH, Moreno C/Jansen DH, rinse/repeat. Have Vlad & Springer just have more full days off instead of DH days, or let one of them DH and give one of the catchers a full day off now and then. Not a perfect solution, but could work for 2022 at least and maybe 2023 if everyone does well. How many catchers qualify for a batting title anyways (502 PA)? 2 catchers in 2021, 4 in 2020 (186 PA), 4 in 2019, 6 in 2018. It isn't easy, and most get there via playing a lot of games at a position other than catcher. Jay catchers have rarely got there - Ernie Whitt never did, Russell Martin did it 6 times out of 14 seasons, including 2 here. So while possible it isn't ideal imo. Spreading the PA between the 3 should keep all far more healthy and with the injury issues Jansen has had having a solid 3rd guy here all the time might be a good idea.

In the end though I think the best idea is to trade one of the 3 to get a LH hitting OF who can play CF (allowing Springer to move to RF) or is so good with the bat you don't care about their defense.

If you can hit, they will find ABs for you.

1) If 1 or 2 Cs get injured we still have a top C. Which helps getting to the playoffs and doing well there.

2) As a FA in a few years Jansen will want to be the #1 somewhere if he has shown that he can produce like a #1. He will probably still get an extension offer by the Jays.

3) All 3 got low signing bonuses. Jansen was a round 16 pick.

I find it much easier just to believe that catcher prospect defense gets very over or underrated rather than belive that certain guys just improve massively in that department.

If they're capable of improving that much that quickly then either their defense was underrated to begin with or catcher defense is easy to learn.

No question durability is critical. Thus going with 3 catchers rotating between DH and catching might be ideal. One gets hurt the other 2 play more and you use someone else as DH more often. Durability is not teachable. But with proper rest you might get more games out of a guy like the Jays are trying to do with Springer.

Martin didn't want Dickie to have his personal catcher.
Catching knucklers is not a good recipe for keeping your hands healthy
I believe his offensive numbers would have been better had he played a bit less. .