Batter's Box Interactive Magazine

Trent Palmer threw two seven inning no hitters last season and on Sunday he threw six perfect innings. It led to the only affiliate win on the day. Pitching was lacking at the top of the system, although there was a sign of life with the bats. Now they just need to get both at the same time. Dahian Santos was another pitcher who had a big day.

Buffalo 6 Worcester 10

Reading 10 New Hampshire 9

Vancouver 7 Hillsboro 0

Dunedin 4 Bradenton 5 - 10 innings

This is what I noted from yesterday's games.

The Bisons lost but outhit Worcester 12-10. I noted yesterday that Logan Warmoth's average had dipped, but he rebounded going 3-4 with two doubles, two runs and two RBI. Nathan Lukes also doubled twice. Gabriel Moreno and Jordan Groshans had two hits each.

Andrew Bash, who is starting because of injuries and callups, and Jake Elliott who is in Buffalo for the same reason, gave up the ten runs between them.

Because of a rainout on Tuesday, New Hampshire had to make Sunday a bullpen day. Five relievers pitched and three of them were scored upon, including the starter Marcus Reyes. Gilbert Ponce pitched three shutout innings. His ERA is 2.08 in 8.2 innings with nine strikeouts and a WHIP under 1.

Tanner Morris tripled, homered, singled and walked and has moved his average up to .311. Will Robertson also homered. Orelvis returned to go 2-5 with two strikeouts. There has been some concern over Orelvis's strikeouts. But remember he was advanced beyond expectations to AA. I am prepared to give him a pass for April and May and will worry if the strikeouts continue at this rate into June and July.

Trent Palmer is listed at 6'1" and 230 pounds and when you see him he does have a very wide body, broad shoulders and wide torso. He is like a smaller Alek Manoah. Palmer has a low 90's 4 seam fastball, a sinker, a slider and a change. Most of his pitches move, making it hard for hitters at this level. On Sunday he threw six perfect innings with eight K's. His ERA is now 1.69. For the season he has 24 K's in 16 innings. Alejandro Melean pitched the last three innings and he allowed one hit, spoiling the no hit bid.

Addison Barger homered, his third. Miguel Hiraldo tripled. Riley Tirotta and PK Morris had two hits each, including a double each.

Dunedin suffered another walk off extra innings loss. Rainer Nunez continues to lead the offense, he drove in three of the Jays four runs including his sixth home run. Adriel Sotolongo continues to try and keep pace, he singled and he is hitting .269. After those two it's .220 and below.

Rafael Ohashi started and in four innings gave up seven hits leading to two runs. The pitching star was Dahian Santos who struck out nine in four shutout innings. Santos threw 30 sliders in 61 pitches, almost 50%. He got ten whiffs on 13 swings. His other main pitch was his sinker which he threw 21 times with an average velo of 92.5mph. Santos also piked up three whiffs on eight changeups.

In injury news, Hagen Danner, Estivan Machado and Rikelbin De Castro are all on the 7 day IL.

Three Stars

Third Star - Logan Warmoth

Second Star - Tanner Morris

First Star - Trent Palmer

Boxes

Posted by Gerry on Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 06:48 PM EDT.

Palmer's Perfect | 21 comments | Create New Account

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John Northey - Sunday, May 01 2022 @ 08:27 PM EDT (#413200) #

I wonder if the Jays need to be a bit more aggressive with Palmer. 2 no-no's last year in A ball, and now a perfect 7 today in A+. 20 starts at low levels for a 23 year old. I say push him to AA ASAP. He isn't going to learn much more in the low minors - even if he gets hit around he'd at least be learning. But 79 IP 46 H 1 HR 49 BB 107 K's suggests the low minors are too easy for him. A bit wild still, but when it doesn't hurt him he won't learn. 5.58 BB/9 is ugly though, his 12.19 K/9 protects him as does his 0.11 HR/9. If he can do that in AA he'd be well on his way here, but this year he really needs to be in AA to learn I suspect. Manoah went from low A (2019) to COVID camp (2020) to AAA (early 2021) to the majors (May 27, 2021). Manoah had far, far better control (2.6 BB/9 in A-, 1.5 in AAA) and even higher K rates (13.9 in the minors) but gave up 2 HR in 35 IP with 6 HBP (a problem he still has) in just 35 IP.

I suspect the Jays have a plan for Palmer, 3rd round 2020. I expect him to be in A+ until mid-season, then AA from then on, then AAA in 2023 if he does well in AA with a call up once the Jays are needing him and he shows he can do it. I expect him to jump up the Jays prospect lists this season quite a bit. Highest I see him on any is 23rd (MLB Pipeline) and often not listed or a 'keep an eye on' guy for other lists. Lets hope he proves everyone made a mistake not putting him a LOT higher.

bpoz - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#413212) #

Palmer was interviewed after his 6 perfect innings. Said that his FB, SL and CU were in the strike zone. The Jays told him he has to control the walks. It took a long time last year for him to improve the walks. This year first 3 games 10IP with 7bb so not really good enough. In the 1st 2 games he gave up 6 unearned runs of the 7 scored while he pitched 6 innings. He mentioned the good defense yesterday and also the topic about how he stays calm.

With continued success he should be promoted to AA. He probably has to prove himself as he moves up.

scottt - Monday, May 02 2022 @ 02:23 PM EDT (#413219) #

Palmer's best pitch is a changeup.
Most similar Jays pitcher is Richards.
Richards, undrafted, pitched A-/A at 23 and A+/ AA at 24.
By the time he was at AAA he averaged less than 1 BB per 9.

Palmer's K rate is good.
So yeah, he mostly needs to reduce the walks.

bpoz - Tuesday, May 03 2022 @ 09:10 AM EDT (#413257) #

Palmer and Max Castillo are about the same age. Castillo has always been young for every level. Palmer is not young or old. He is doing quite well.

Neither has exceptional velocity but rely on pitch ability. Castillo seems close to graduating AA. Palmer may also be close to graduating A+. AA is supposed to be a tough challenge for both pitchers and hitters. Castillo has passed that test but it is his 2nd year at AA.

hypobole - Tuesday, May 03 2022 @ 09:27 AM EDT (#413260) #

He isn't going to learn much more in the low minors

I have to agree with bpoz on this one John. If bettering command and control are the greatest development needs, then there is plenty to learn in the low minors. In my opinion, it's essential for a low 90's pitcher, because Palmer's going to struggle big time in AA without it being a plus tool.

John Northey - Tuesday, May 03 2022 @ 10:06 AM EDT (#413262) #

The problem is that in the low minors he will see success without gaining control, but in AA he'll get pounded for it. Sometimes you need to hit these kids over the head or they don't learn, the old 'I always have succeeded this way, why change' and at his age he needs to learn fast. 23 in A+ is old.

bpoz - Tuesday, May 03 2022 @ 10:27 AM EDT (#413264) #

Logue/Snead/Smith plus Hoglund got us Chapman.

S Taylor/Castillo/+/+ would get us another Chapman type.

This is valuable.

hypobole - Tuesday, May 03 2022 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#413265) #

You make it sound like Palmer is a stubborn idiot. He and the Jays development staff know a lot better than we do.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 03 2022 @ 11:01 AM EDT (#413267) #

Palmer has had 4 outings in Vancouver- the first three totalled 10 innings with 7 walks (and 13 hits), and the last was 6 unblemished innings and 8 strikeouts. After a few more longer outings with a modest number of walks and a decent number of strikeouts, I'm sure that they'll think about a promotion but not yet. For now, he's got work to do on the level he's at.

bpoz - Tuesday, May 03 2022 @ 11:40 AM EDT (#413268) #

O Martinez with his 7th Hr today. 3 run shot. 5-0 NH in the 2nd inning.

Gerry - Tuesday, May 03 2022 @ 05:00 PM EDT (#413294) #

Otto Lopez is back with the Bisons.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 03 2022 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#413296) #

After going 3-4 with a walk, Tanner Morris is up to .338/.488/.554. He has 18 walks and 14 Ks and 4 home runs in 84 PAs. He's a 24 year old LHH 2b/3b at AA level. He has a .393 career OBP and an almost even W/K. With the development of medium range pop, he becomes an interesting surprise prospect.

bpoz - Tuesday, May 03 2022 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#413299) #

V Capra seems to have fooled a lot of people. Me too. Drafted in 2018 and did ok. Immediately jumped to AA in 2019 and did ok. Repeated AA in 2021. V good in AAA in SSS with a good bb/k rate. So good results.

hypobole - Tuesday, May 03 2022 @ 06:48 PM EDT (#413300) #

from FG:

Morris has 40 pop and no physical projection left. Defensively, he�s played everywhere but isn�t particularly good anywhere, and has no shot to stick in the infield. He can hit though, and that�s the one tool that can carry a guy all the way to the majors.

Nigel - Tuesday, May 03 2022 @ 07:27 PM EDT (#413302) #

2019 was not my year to get out much to the Nat but I did see Morris a couple of times - frankly, I didn't even really notice him much but what I saw backs that comment on this defense. He could maybe fake some LF and 3B (maybe) - he's a bat without a home. The strike zone control was obvious though.

Anyone have a Zac Cook viewing to report on? He's really done nothing but hit since he joined the Jays. They had him in CF today.

Mike Green - Tuesday, May 03 2022 @ 08:20 PM EDT (#413307) #

Hypobole, I don't trust the 40 pop projection from FG on Morris. They've been wrong so many times before, and when he hits 4 homers in a month- 2 on the road and 2 at home- I'll wait on that. It's quite possible that's based on viewing from last year and things can change.

I think of Bill Mueller. At age 24, he was in double A and triple A and hit .305/.392/.412 with a 72/67 W/K. He was an average defensive third baseman but was a valuable contributor overall. I see nothing that suggests Morris can't be that, or maybe even a little better. Mueller didn't develop average pop until his 30s.

hypobole - Wednesday, May 04 2022 @ 11:04 AM EDT (#413334) #

40 power is about 8-12 HR/,115-120 ISO. Morris had a .116 ISO last year, 110 ISO in 2019.

Yes talent evaluators are wrong a lot. Ask uglyone about Blake Swihart. But they have access to Statcast data we don't.

Remember Reese McGuire in New Hampshire? 136 PA's/6 HR/.217 ISO. You argued about his power as well. The next year in Buffalo, 369 PA's/7 HR/.106 ISO. He's at 445 PA's/9 HR/.130 in MLB, but .073, .091, .025 ISO from 2020-2022.

On the other hand I watched his last home run. Belt-high FB, but he launched it - it wasn't a cheapie.(the triple though was just a warning track fly the CF lost in the sun). His power may well play up as he's hitting a lot more fly balls this year.

Gerry - Wednesday, May 04 2022 @ 11:56 AM EDT (#413336) #

Eric Longenhagen from Fangraphs was in Florida and checked in on some Blue Jay prospects.

In short he liked Ricky Tiedemann and Nick Frasso.

He did not like Eric Pardinho or Manuel Beltre.

He was somewhat positive on Irv Carter and he noted a name no-one has heard of Ben Baggett.

Waveburner - Wednesday, May 04 2022 @ 01:24 PM EDT (#413339) #

Interesting opinions from Longenhagen. Disappointing on Pardinho to hear his velocity is still way down from pre-TJ.

I see no value in his comment on Beltre though, every scouting service said the same thing when the Jays signed him, lack of tools. Maybe they will be right but Longenhagen was also highly skeptical on Vladdy when he was still in instructs. It wasn't until he destroyed full season pitching that he changed his mind. I admire Longenhagen's tremendous dedication, but he's just as prone to being wildly wrong as any other scout.

hypobole - Wednesday, May 04 2022 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#413344) #

Longenhagen was also highly skeptical on Vladdy when he was still in instructs.

Are you taking about this from the 2016 list?:

"First things first, Junior isn�t his dad. He�s a completely different athlete and possesses a completely different body type, to the point that the two best carrying tools of his dad�s skill set are question marks in the younger Guerrero. He has improved his arm strength and usefulness to be an average tool, prompting the Blue Jays to give him a try at third base. Papa Bear�s uncanny ability to barrel up pitches in any location is the counterpoint to Guerrero Jr.�s off-balance hacks and inconsistent swing path.

The third-base experiment is likely to be short-lived, with first base the long-term end point for his defensive journey. He doesn�t have the arm or dexterity, let alone range, to be of much value anywhere else on the diamond. I think his power is for real, but the tightness and effort it takes to use it hurts more than helps against game pitching. It�s just too big of a leap for me to count on him turning into more than a 45 hit-tool guy, which isn�t enough to get his likely future value to a 40 or better. If everything breaks right, he could be a fringe starting option.

He�s still crazy young, only just turning 17 in March; however, were he a high school junior or a young senior eligible for the draft, I�d be writing the same report. Unless his power jumps into generational-type levels, or he reveals undemonstrated feel for hitting and control of his swing, I can�t convince myself otherwise. Maybe physical maturity will be very kind to him, but that�s not a bet I�m willing to make."

That wasn't Longenhagen, that was Farnsworth.

Waveburner - Wednesday, May 04 2022 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#413353) #

That might be the article I was thinking of. But I actually thought that Longenhagen had done a specific breakdown of Vladdy's swing mechanics and concluded it just wouldn't work at higher levels.

However it's entirely possible the one you posted is actually what I was misremembering. It could also not be a FG/Longenhagen article at all. I'm too lazy to search though.

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