FB has reverse platoon numbers.

It's been suggested that Kikuchi needs to throw more fastballs.
Will he do that?

I know he gave up a HR, but to my eyes, simplifying things looks like a qualified success. He looked like he actually had command. There was one pitch - the 1-2 FB to Bregman before the HR on the slider - that I thought, "he flew open".

It’s maddening to watch Kikuchi right now. Hopefully he will figure it out over the course of the season.

It’s maddening to watch Kikuchi right now. Hopefully he will figure it out over the course of the season.

I did say qualified success...

Kikuchi not giving them very competitive starts here

As a closet M’s fan here in Vancouver - I can safely say that this isn’t just now. This is who Kikuchi has been since he arrived. Obviously, he’s struggling with BB’s more than normal but this is merely exaggerated form of himself rather than an anomaly. He’s really only had one short stretch of MLB success.

Maybe they ought to send Kikuchi down on Sunday….

I’m obviously not suggesting that. Merely, that expecting more than a reasonably competent 5th starter with some upside if Walker can unlock something, isn’t reasonable. The stuff looks so tasty though:)

Finally they have to pitch to VG…..

I think that baseball will get sent down Sunday, after it stops bouncing around the stands.

The lineup will really start to click when Bichette starts hitting (and, of course, when Teo and Jansen return).

Bo is currently hitting .207/.233/.299

I'm not sure what I find more frustrating. Kikuchi's lack of confidence in throwing his fastball, and inability to throw it for strikes, or Bo's inability to not swing at balls. I think yesterday he struck-out in at at-bat where the pitcher threw 5 balls and no strikes. I don't remember if I've seen that before.
Kikuchi needs to channel Ray's aggressiveness (heck maybe he needs tighter pants). Keep throwing the fastball until they hit it! Then throw it some more!
What's worse with Bo, is his over aggressiveness can be contagious... and definitely doesn't help the other Jay's batters see any pitches.
All that said, go Jays!! I'm digging the Bo Flow bobblehead :)

They should consider switching Bichette and Espinal. VG might get more pitches to hit if he actually had someone on base, and it would take the pressure off Bichette till he straightens things out. He’s really been a rally crusher.

You have to think that Bichette will sort himself out. He has a pretty long track record of success as a hitter. Sometimes a good hitter just goes through a prolonged spring slump. I remember when it happened to David Ortiz. Checking his stats, in 2009 he had a wRC+ of 56 in April and 37 in May. He finished with a wRC+ of 100. He had an awful start in 2010 as well — wRC+ of 38 in April. He finished that season with a wRC+ of 134.

Bichette's struggles seem to me to be a preview of future Bichette. His approach is so aggressive and violent that once he starts to lose some reaction time and/or bat speed, it could get real ugly. He convinced me with last season that its sustainable for now, but among all the candidates for extensions he's my lowest priority.
Arden Zwelling had a bit there on Tapia that confirmed my feeling that he's been making some pretty good contact lately and elevating the ball. I'm still hopeful for him. I'm done with Zimmer though.

Kikuchi is throwing plenty of fastballs, he just can't throw them for strikes consistently. Everyone is clearly sitting on the offspeed stuff. You can see what the team is dreaming on though.
Collins is cooling off a bit, as expected, but I still like his approach at the plate. He's swinging at the right pitches, just kind of whiffing on them, which is maybe troubling in its own way.

After all the close games and comebacks, a blowout is vaguely comforting -- such is baseball. That typed, it is still only the 6th. Bo is clearly of,f, but his all-out approach seems like one that would be sensitive to the short spring training.

It's still April, everybody. Houston came into tonioght's game with Yuli Gurriel (.203) and Kyle Tucker (.191). The Yankees have Josh Donaldson (.197), Tampa Bay has Brandon Lowe (.183), Boston has Enrique Hernandez (.197), Baltimore has Cedric Mullins (.205), Minnesota has Carlos Correa (.200), Kansas City has Whit Merrifield (.127), Chicago has Adam Engel (.188), Cleveland has Franmil Reyes (.145), Detroit has Jonathan Schoop (.159), the Angels have Anthony Rendon (.213), Seattle has Jesse Winker (.159), Texas has Marcus Semien (.158)

Relax, I say.

I left out Oakland because I'm not sure who's supposed to be good on that team.

Yep to be clear, I remain high on Bo and believe he will have a productive multiple all-star career (including above average defence). He might even be my favourite Blue Jay. Definitely would swap him and Espinal now though.
I also still like the Kikuchi signing, and believe Walker can make him a quality #3 type starter.
It's just frustrating to watch when the current problems appear to be mental, as it's clear the tools are there for both of them. When I watched Kikuchi blow away the Jays (I believe last year, vs Ryu) he had future ACE written all over him.
Of course, it's always possible there are subtle injuries hampering them, or also off-field pressures we're not aware of.

Missed my chance. I was all set to start a pool on what would happen first: Kirk's first strikeout or his first extra base hit.

<br>just liked at Bichette's statcast stats.
Hrs hitting thr ball on the ground a LOT launch angle 1.8 with next lowest last year at 7.3
Hitting the ball hard 50.8 % hard hit
But his bb% are bad and k% highest. But with all that his expected slash 281 BA and 453 SLG
So he's swinging at garbage, missing it a lot, and not hitting it well (lowest sweet spot and barrel %)
So unlucky and frustrated
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/bo-bichette-666182?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

Maybe there is hope for Tapia. Missed the Zwelling bit, but I checked his statcast. Running an average EV of 90 mph vs last years 85.7. Best ever was 87.6 in 2019. Running career highs in barrel% and Hard Hit%.

Chasing almost half the O-Zone pitches will have to stop though. A sub 2% BB rate is atrocious.

21 games in. Bo hitting 200/226/289 Lets check some history...

• Jose Bautista 2010: ended up with 54 HR, but at game 21 was hitting 234/344/481 with 4 HR, low point was after 11 though (175/358/300).
• Robbie Alomar's 1st year here (91) he was 256/315/366 after 21 games age 23.
• Tony Fernandez 1986 set the record for most hits by a SS (213 since broken, I think A-Rod holds it now with 215 at age 20), but after 21 games was hitting just 261/301/318.

Didn't find anyone as bad as Bo, but slow starts happen even to HOF'ers at a young age. Even to guys in years they would do great things. Yeah, Bo's slump is pretty horrid and a break of some kind might be needed or something. But it is rare to go from a 121 OPS+ to a 61 (now less) in just one year. Odds are this will turn around soon for him.

.200 is hardly a slump. It looks worse because it's early and he doesn't walk.

Break would be to drop him in the order, I guess, but the team hasn't lost a series yet, so that would be premature.

I wonder if there is a communication problem with Kikuchi.
Overall, he's not too different from Merryweather and Pearson.
Great stuff, poor execution.

Glad to see the top 3 starters are eating up innings as otherwise with Kikuchi and Stripling, the BP would be spent. Stripling’s getting his pitch count up but having him as a starter exposes Thornton as a mediocre multi inning guy. Unfortunate Ryu went down before Pearson is back, as Nate could have at least replaced Thornton.

Very early in the season and some teams have had great starts. Extrapolating wins NYY 113, LAA 108, Tor 100, TB 97. Much will change.

The pen has been very good. However Y Garcia and T Richards have had 1 bad game each. These things happen.

Kirk's K ruined Magpie's poll, but the XBH drought is concerning.

Last year, he hit the ball hard. 92.3 EV better than any Jays regular other than Vlad. 14.7 degree Launch Angle. 11% barrel, 46.9% Hard.

This year, 86.9 EV. Only Katoh and Heineman lower. 5.8 degree LA. 2.2% barrel, 32.6% Hard.

Tampa, Yankees and now Boston have all had a shot at beating up Baltimore while we don't play them until a few weeks into June. I'd be happy if we can go 3-3 in this series and the next against the Astros and Yankees. It's a brutal schedule to start the season.

Should Bo be hitting in front of Vlad until he does come out of his slump?


Last year Vlad led off an inning just over 14% of his PA's. This year it's over 20%.

Summer of George!

Fantastic Berrios having a 3 up 3 down to set the tone. Our pitchers did not have even one of those last night in the 9 innings.

“Siri, hit a ground ball to third.”

Hey, this technology works better than I expected.

Fantastic Berrios having a 3 up 3 down to set the tone.

And then another 7 innings of baserunners before Romano's clean 9th.

Great move by Charlie to get tossed and take the umpires attention away from Vlad. Don't have to do it Lou Pinella style to make it work.

Also, how about Springer, carrying the offense in another close ballgame while the team is shorthanded. OPS of 947.

Bo should be moved to 2B tbh.

Espinal obviously a better fielder.

And it would let Bo concentrate more on hitting.

Another 1 run win.

Is Garcia in need of rest or just in the doghouse?

About 10 days ago (redacted) pointed out the guy he wanted the Jays to sign had been incredible (1.1 fWAR). Instead people got the LHB they wanted so badly.

So how did they do the next ten games (prior to both with an 0 for 3, 1 BB performance today)?

Tapia .286/.296/.405
Suzuki .189/.268/.270

Not saying that Suzuki won't outperform Tapia, but may not be by as much as some believe. Or maybe he will. Early April judgements are often poor judgements.

Brought this up a while back, but it's become even more extreme. Prior to Saturday, Jays 680 PA's vs RHP's were the most in baseball. Yankees next at 596. No surprise, Jays 104 PA's vs LHP are the fewest in baseball. 21 teams over 190.

Last year Kirk vs RHP 79 wRC+, vs LHP 163 wRC+
Last year Bo vs RHP 111 wRC+, vs LHP 156 wRC+

Seems facing a constant diet of RHP's has really affected Kirk especially, but probably also Bo.

For sure, April judgments can be wildly off. But Suzuki is still at 0.8 fWAR on the season (same as Vladdy and slightly better than Springer). Tapia is at -0.1 fWAR.

But Suzuki is still at 0.8 fWAR on the season

As of this morning, Suzuki is now at 0.7 fWAR, so -0.4 fWAR since the OP. Is Tapia good? No, he isn't. But since the OP, Tapia's weak production has been better than Suzuki's. And also as of this morning, it's now Springer at 1.1 fWAR. All April stats.

It was the LHH comment that I felt unnecessary. Some people hated the trade, some, myself included, were accepting of the trade. No one I recall said anything akin to "That's the guy I wanted."

Catchers don't play every day and lots of players do better in AAA than in MLB where everybody watches every video so it's impossible to hide flaws. Kirk doesn't like to strike out and will reach for outside balls with 2 strikes. Also, they just need him to hit it on the ground, so they know where in the strike zone to throw it.

And players who work hard on defense can improve. Not too surprising.
Kirk is great with low pitches.

They'll cut a position player tomorrow and another one when Hernandez returns maybe in 3 days.

Offense is down. All 30 teams are now using humidors. The pitchers are complaining of lack of uniformity in the balls. Some say the seams are higher again.

That's part of the Tapia calculus. You can pitch hit for him and a right handed bat next to him has a higher chance of facing a lefty reliever.

Springer has been so good that you don't want him chasing fly balls on turf every day.
That's also part of the calculus.

Interesting article on Gausman with amazing stats and a fascinating overlay of his fastball and splitter. Best stat- “Gausman's splitter chase rate is the highest for any pitcher on any pitch type in any calendar month in the entire pitch-tracking era, which goes back to 2008.”

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/news/kevin-gausman-splitter-best-chase-pitch

“For sure, April judgments can be wildly off. But Suzuki is still at 0.8 fWAR on the season (same as Vladdy and slightly better than Springer). Tapia is at -0.1 fWAR.”

The fact that your numbers being used show that Suzuki is an equal player to Vlad means nothing to you? Different variations of WAR are a good tool generally speaking, but personally I find too many people try to use the stat as a way to justify a persons worth vs another. When that happens it becomes obvious, to me at least, that WAR is a flawed tool for evaluating the values of players. At a certain point we need to acknowledge the limits of a general tool like WAR, unless of course you really believe that someone like Kiermaier can be a positive WAR player while posting a .200 average and batting at the bottom of the order.

Sunday notes. Includes Borucki talking his cutter/ slider combo (is that a clutter, slitter, slutter?)

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/sunday-notes-the-decision-is-in-hoby-milner-holds-a-unique-record/

also this link in there:

https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/mlb-oakland-athletics-vancouver-montreal

Montreal Rays and Vancouver A's?

dalimon5, what metrics are you relying on to establish that Vladdy has been more valuable than Suzuki this season?

Vinny Capra starts today (before likely being sent down after the game).

The completely old fashioned, biased one called “common sense.” I’ve been adamant about the limits of WAR. Is it a bad stat? Is it wrong? No and no. Is it more than a single stat that can justify or settle a players value? In my opinion, also no. It is the single most overused stat in sport and the go-to stat to use when trying to advocate for one player over another.

The highest gripe I have with WAR, aside from subjective defensive accuracy, is the fact that it is based on random sample sizes. Who cares if player A has more value over 30 games over player B? That’s useless info after those 30 games since the nature of baseball is that there are peaks and valleys to a players performance. This also is a problem over longer sample sizes. Who cares about a players measured performance if you know that a players performance is constantly changing year over year based on adjustments? If front offices followed WAR when signing players then that would assume they think that player is consistent enough to maintain that level of performance. That’s called a superstar, and part of the reason for big contracts is that consistency. For everyone else like. Bautista or Gausman, you don’t rely on WAR when trying to see what their potential can be. By the same logic, the front office won’t be looking at WAR between Suzuki and Tapia, even if they overlooked the acquisition and salary cost.

Vinny Capra will earn almost as much money this weekend as he will for an entire season in AAA. 3 days on an MLB roster at the minimum salary is worth about $11,500, compared to the AAA minimum salary of $700/week (about $14,700 for the season). I doubt this factors much into the roster decisions, but it's a nice financial bonus for a guy who signed for $1000.

Thanks Cracka. Nice to hear that.

<br>Dalimon you might want to go look at how statistics use WAR and not people on this site. Your argument also suggests the uselessness of ANY statistical measurement. And sure, none of them are necessary to understand or enjoy baseball.
Front offices have access to many stats we do not have, proprietary ones even. So whether they make decisions on WAR or not isn't relevant to its usefulness as a stat

Incidentally pretty much every field has a problem with people looking for some unifying theory, this is similar.

I find it useful. Not without its flaws, but it is changing the components of calculation as more reliable data becomes available.

This feels like more of an attack then intended, so hopefully you don't understand it that way. But you don't need to like WAR or thinknits accurate. I just find objections hard when statistical valuation of players is a large part of the game

Kevin Goldstein had access to Houston's proprietary stats. He stated WAR is fairly accurate, except for catchers. Players and owners are going to use a WAR type stat to determine who gets how much of the pre-arb player pool. Pitching value is an issue, with 2 totally different systems in use. But yeah, comparing one player to another over a small sample is fraught with error.

Yeah, it is great to see that reward for Capra.  I think there should be more of those types of moves.  not like a guy like Capra gets claimed when moved off the 40 man, and if he does, that's a bonus for the player and the org - like the Raps use their 905 time.  They don't have the rights to most of the players, any time can claim one at any time, but they also have a rep for development and as a ladder to the bigs.  Gotta imagine that attracts a lot of AAAA talent. 

How much money are we saving in the Tapia deal?  I never saw a specific figure, but that's as much a part of the deal as the player and his fit with the team. as is Pinto, the prospect and a worthy flier to my mind. 

"Toronto will pay Colorado $9,716,333 – $5,383,333 this year and $4,333,333 in 2023 – covering a little more than half the $18,666,666 owed to Grichuk, who has salaries of $9,333,333 in each of the next two seasons.

Tapia agreed this week to a $3.95 million, one-year contract and is eligible for free agency after the 2023 season."

So no real savings this year. Savings if they dump Tapia after this season though.

No offence taken Lexo, just like to roll my eyes and post every time it’s posted “player A has x war vs our player who has x war. Useless in this application. Happens every season after a few months.

With WAR I see a blunt tool. Great for careers, for measuring drafts where you have to mix hitters, pitchers, fielders. But lousy inseason. Not good for fractions. Spreads of under 1 WAR are meaningless imo. In season I prefer stuff like OPS+.

These tiny WAR samples are useless.


And crazy graphic they just showed about the 17 balls called strikes on vladdy this year. He's getting jobbed.

He stated WAR is fairly accurate

WAR has its uses but accuracy is not one of its characteristics, more or less by definition. Accuracy is a valid criteria for measurements or counts of actual things, like runs scored. But WAR is an estimate of value based on what will always be a theory of what constitutes value. The argument must always be about how good an estimate one thinks it is, which in turn depends on what one thinks of the various components of the theory. Accuracy doesn't enter into it. How could it? WAR is conceptual, like size - height and weight can be accurate, but size is a concept. Is Jordan Romano bigger than Vladimir Guerrero? Depends what you mean by "big."

"Magpie, how this "fairly much in line with proprietary stats for one team in the time he worked for that one team."?

Nice play, but somebody please tell Bo he has the best fielder in baseball playing beside him…no reason to range that far, kid.

He might be struggling mightily, but Bo’s flair for the dramatic is surely intact.

Jays finally see a lefty and the guy had been dominant. Great job Zimmer pulling a Homer Simpson and even better by Bo.

Huge hit for Bo. Love to see that.

At the moment, Suzuki is hitting .282/.402/.535. He plays right field -- maybe he's average defensively. Vladdy is hitting .275/.341/.525. He plays first base -- maybe he's average defensively.

I don't see how it's "common sense" that Vladdy is having the better season.

in line with proprietary stats for one team

Well, it all sounds like it means that WAR (an estimate based on a theory) matches up well with their own proprietary estimate based on a theory. I'm pretty sure no one is actually counting and adding up portions of wins by individual players.

Suzuki and Vlad

It's going to be even more complicated than that. For starters, the Cubs have played a big chunk of their schedule against Pittsburgh and Colorado, who don't exactly shut the opposition down.

It’s true. That could possibly account for the 71-point OPS advantage Suzuki currently has over Vlad. I’m not sure it rises to the level of a obviously better season for Vlad to date (though Vlad may well have the better stats by season’s end).

At this very moment, someone from the Jays PR team will be trying to persuade the official scorer to give Kirk a hit on that last play. Resistance is not futile.

Of course, strength of schedule is itself a very hairy concept. Playing against Tampa Bay last May was a very different experience than playing against them in April. (And the same would apply to indivudual players, if you were tracking that. Batting against Hyun-Jin Ryu last September was much more pleasurable for the hitters than it was in July.)

I don't see how it's "common sense" that Vladdy is having the better season.“

Greenfrog it’s very simple. You started your argument by pointing out that Suzuki was the better target than Tapia, insinuating we would be better off with him than Tapia. You then started saying that Suzuki currently had a similar WAR to Vlad and a better WAR than Springer, as if to say if Suzuki is playing at that pace then we could have another player of that calibre instead of Suzuki. After being called out by some posters that WAR through 30 games is not accurate enough to put Suzuki on the same level as Springer or Vlad, you are now coming back and asking for clarity on why Vlad is having the better season vs Suzuki. Again, you’re missing the point…it’s not about who has a higher WAR … it’s 30 games…

You’ve done this every year… you target a player the Jays didn’t resign or sign and then use WAR to show that the Jays could have that player instead of who they decided to go with. You’ve done this with Bergen, Dwight Smith Jr and of course with Grichuk’s bad contract, pointing out the savings the team could have had. It’s ironic that now that the Jays traded him away you are complaining about the player he was traded for. You got what you wanted, they got rid of Grichuk, essentially replaced him with Springer and made Tapia the 4th OF.

dalimon5, every year you work yourself up into a very public lather, usually when confronted with rational arguments that counter your “common sense” positions (or a reference to Keith Law). We’re all familiar with it. It’s an obvious ploy to distract from a weak position and it’s simply not persuasive at all.

Had 'em all the way.

A couple of random observations. Gausman is taking this whole idea of being a strike-thrower to levels not dreamt of in our philosophy. Bradley Zimmer makes Jonathan Davis look like an actual major-league hitter, even if he is a better defender. It's kind of weird that Raimel Tapia shares the team lead in GIDP with Kirk and Vlad. Fast LH batters aren't supposed to do that, although Tapia does hit everything, hits it on the ground, and maybe isn't quite as fast as he's supposed to be.

I thought that catch by Springer in the ninth was fantastic, didn't think he was going to get there.

So far, this team reminds me of 2006, with shades of 1992.

I hope the roof opens soon!

Suzuki, having not played in MLB is a gamble.
The Jays were willing to bet some money there but not as much as other teams.
The Jays were looking for a middle of the order left bat, a good defensive thirdbaseman and replacing 2 good starters, one a Cy Young winner.
So, the Jays bet heavily on Gausman, traded for Chapman and took a gamble on Suzuki.
They also inked Yimi Garcia to improve the pen.

The Tapia deal was part of a secondary goal of  filling the bench with left bats.
I am not ready to say that this has not worked out.

The Jays have faced some pretty tough pitching so far.

Glad to see the last of the Astros for the season, but probably not as glad as the Astros are to the last of the Jays.

Hey 50% success rate today with RISP!

Romano is the most valuable guy on the Jays right now regardless of his WAR. Hope they don’t burn him out.

This run of good teams means our batters are facing a tonne of good pitching which doesn’t help those in a slump. And we have no shortage of slumpers

The Jays have optioned Bowden Francis and Gosuke Katoh. Vinny Capra survives. With Espinal now playing every day Katoh wasn't getting any playing time.

Gausman is good.

According to MLB Stats on Twitter, Gausman is the first pitcher since Cy Young in 1906 to not walk a batter or allow a home run in five straight starts to begin a season (minimum 20 innings pitched).

Prior to today, bWAR had Gausman as the 6th best Blue Jay thus far. fWAR had Gausman as the best pitcher in baseball.

At first glance, Capra looks like a RH version of Katoh, except two years younger. He's mostly an infielder as well. No one seems to regard him as any kind of prospect - he's 25 years old and until last year in New Hampshire he'd never done much with the bat. But he did have a nice year in AA a year ago and had picked up right where he left off in Buffalo. If nothing else, he'll balance the bench a little better.

Romano is the most valuable guy on the Jays right now regardless of his WAR. George Springer would like a word

With the lefties Tapia and Zimmer at the bottom of the roster the right-handed Capra is a much better fit than Katoh, so good move there. Capra has spent most of his time in the infield in New Hampshire and Buffalo.

The two WARs think Espinal, Springer, Manoah and Gausman have been the team's best players, which sounds about right. Springer gets dinged for negative defense, but he's been fine.

Yankees have played Cleveland and Baltimore.
The only .500 teams the Yankees have faced are the Jays as Red Sox are under .500.

Yeah, FIP based WAR for 30+K, 0BB, 0HR.
Manoah has only allowed 4 runs earned or not . Is that more valuable? Probably.

Offense is down, so lots of pitchers with high WAR and  not that many high OPS hitters.

“dalimon5, every year you work yourself up into a very public lather, usually when confronted with rational arguments that counter your “common sense” positions (or a reference to Keith Law). We’re all familiar with it. It’s an obvious ploy to distract from a weak position and it’s simply not persuasive at all.”

We can continue to disagree and put forth our arguments so long as we maintain the fair dialogue. I am listening to your position and disagree, but value your posts in any case.

Personally I think the most valuable player is the one they can least afford to lose. And while Gausman, Manoah and Springer of all been outstanding, with the plethora of one run games, I think it’s Romano. Not only is he shut down, but with his loss everyone behind him would have to move up 1, and the solid pitcher ranks start to thin quickly.

Besides not losing a series yet, the Jays haven't lost 2 in a row yet either. The best prior to start a season was 2009, when Cito's Jays avoided a losing streak until games 23 and 24.

Since they just won game 23, this years team will have the new record no matter what happens.

Cito Gaston should have won the AL Manager of the Year Award in 1989 after turning the team around after their disastrous start to win the division over the Baltimore Orioles.

Incidentally, Baltimore's manager Frank Robinson took the award that year.

And then there's the Cincinnati Reds, who lost to the Rockies today. Not only is the Reds' 3-19 record the worst start in franchise history, it's also tied for the second-worst record through 22 games since 1900. Only the Baltimore Orioles 1-21 start in 1988 has been worse.

Found an article on Team President (also the owner's son, so you know that's going to work well) Phil Castellini's tone deaf interview around opening day. Had a picture of the guy.

Lots of team execs nowadays look like Wall Street-ers. Not Phil, who looks like he could have been part of John Gotti's crew back in the day. Which seems to dovetail with his "Nice franchise you have here. Sure would be a shame if anything happened to it" remarks.

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/reds-president-phil-castellini-scoffs-at-fan-frustration-requests-to-sell-where-you-gonna-go/#:~:text=The%20principle%20owner%20and%20chairman,runs%20business%20and%20ballpark%20operations.

FYI: Umpire Scorecards for Friday & Saturday, today's won't be up for awhile. A few more went the Jays way this time than normal it seems. But still I find sub 90% called strike accuracy unacceptable. RoboUmps now!

Cito vs Frank Manager of the Year:

Also relevant: Robinson managed the Orioles from a 107-loss season year before. (Also managed by Robinson.)

Of course, the 89 Orioles also had Jose Bautista pitching for them. Sadly, not our Jose... https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bautijo01.shtml

"RoboUmps now!"

Any word on how it's coming along in AAA?

Barkdale just had a huge strike zone and 4 strikes called balls.

Lentz's strike zone looks like that bunny shaped chocolate you can buy for a couple of bucks.

1-2 count, runner on second, obvious ball is called a strike to Guerrero. That's a huge one there.

I don't see the number 2 as being that impactful. 4th ball that grazed the strike zone is called a ball.
That's borderline. Most umps will call that a ball. That's a very bad pitch at a 3-0 count. Chapman probably takes unless it's straight down the middle. They have a very weird "impact" algorithm.

At first glance, Capra looks like a RH version of Katoh

Maybe if I close my eyes. Capra is listed at 5'8", same height as Kirk but more like Bichette's physique.
Katoh is listed at 6'1", he's the tallest guy in the infield after Guerrero.

Espinal has been better defensively than even Chapman. That's something.
Springer has been good on both sides. They're not pitching to Guerrero.

They're not pitching to Guerrero.

Yup. This will be a different lineup when Hernandez returns, provided he is fully recovered.

Wow, yesterday's game was one of the really well done ones, but mistakes were mostly to the Jays favour.

Looking at a couple of guys with weird bad starts.

Kirk's big issue so far seems simple - really poor contact. 87.2 EV down 5 mph from last year. Barrel 2% from 11%. Hard Hit 34% from 47%. The slowest guy on team is the leader with 5 infield hits helped by weak dribblers, but also has 25% infield flies.

Tapia's big issue is plate discipline, because when he's made contact, it's been pretty good. Yesterday's DP, smoking a ball right at the 1st baseman was a bit of a microcosm of his luck this year.

This the 7th year he's spent time in the majors. His 88.3 EV is his best ever. Same with his 8.1% Barrel (2.0 and 2.1% the past 2 seasons). Same with his 38.7% Hard Hit. Statcast each of the past 6 seasons has a lower, often much lower, xwOBA than his actual wOBA. This season his .336 xwOBA is by far the highest of his career, but his actual .259 is by far the lowest the past 6 seasons. He's been Joey Votto with 0 infield flies. And despite his speed, he only has 1 infield hit.

Any interest in Willie Calhoun? What would it take to land him?

Probably too much, he's under control for another year.

He's a linedrive hitter that they tried to tweak with an uppercut swing.
Is he an upgrade over Tapia?

Mets release Cano. Who will take a shot? Texas?

I can't see the Jays having any interest in Calhoun. His bat might be a marginal upgrade on Tapia and Zimmer but he gives that back and more with terrible defence and base running. That would be a hard no for me. Collins appears to be filling the "LHH DH/faking a position on defence" role on the team for now.

When Springer is on the field the Blue Jays are a very different team. That play yesterday was so clutch.

Off topic: Any chance the BB Banner can include a pic of George dancing?

" And despite his speed, he has only one infield hit."

I think Tapia is like Lourdes Gurriel in that they both aren't as fast as they look like they should be.( Long legs, lean physique) They both seem to cover ground adequately in the outfield but I wonder if they don't have that explosive take-off that real burners on the basepaths seem to take advantage of.

Also, no point of disrupting the team chemistry for marginal upgrades.

Per the Baseball Savant data, it looks like we haven’s seen the best of Tapia’s running game (yet?). Last year his sprint speed was 81st percentile, this year it’s at 63 so far. Gurriel was at 41 last year, 56 this year.

Also, infield hits aren't always speed based - see Kirk with a few this year, can't find a site that lists them though. Grrr...you'd figure someone would. Maybe I'm just blind.

Kirk has 5 infield hits this year (see under "More Batted Ball").

It's also on the team page where I found out Kirk is the team IFH leader in my post this morning. Also still waiting for someone to call me out for comparing Tapia to Joey Votto.


https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=10&type=2&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=9,d

Some love for Collins:https://blogs.fangraphs.com/who-makes-the-best-swing-decisions-in-baseball/

"Maybe we should be more willing to believe that Zack Collins can figure it out at the big league level given his propensity for taking bad pitches."

Cool thing. Knew it had to be somewhere. Kirk with 5, then Vlad with 4 tied with Springer and Gurriel for 2nd. Yeah, speed really isn't the deciding factor.

All time Jays Infield Hit leader... (2002-2022 wouldn't let me go further - don't appear to have those stats pre-2002)
Vernon Wells with 159, then Jose Bautista 84 and Aaron Hill 82

So a long ways to go for Kirk to take that one over :)

So I went to the swing decisions list. Combines last year and this year. 423 players listed (numbered to 424, but 1 is the header). Jays best to worst:

11 Collins
15 Biggio
24 Jansen
64 Chapman
112 Springer
115 Vlad
136 Kirk
164 Zimmer
183 Teoscar
211 Espinal
335 Gurriel
395 Tapia
401 Bichette

The name on that list that surprises me is Chapman. I suppose that tells you that there are plenty of holes in his swing within the strike zone.

That swing decisions piece was fascinating. Ben Clemens measures it by wOBA added or lost due to swing decisions relative to the average.

For the Jays players it's mostly what you'd expect, with Biggio pretty high (+.018) and Lourdes (-.021) and Bo (-.034) ranking really low. Old friends Kevin Pillar (-.036) and Randal Grichuk (-.018) are about where you'd expect.

In addition to Collins being a surprise on the high side (+.021) I was surprised to see Danny Jansen rank very highly (+.017). Vladdy is in positive territory, but not as far up as you might suppose (+.004).

One other point: the rankings reinforce more strongly than I expected long-held stereotypes of regional approaches. The top of the list, with few exceptions (Juan Soto), is largely North American, with a few Asian hitters sprinkled in; the bottom of the list is dominated by Latin American players. "You can't walk off the island" appears to be a pretty common view.

Yeah Chapman was a bit surprising, but Zimmer has got to be the worst "holes in his swing guy" on the team.