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Here we go.


The Blue Jays have emerged as the trendy pick to win the AL East and make a deep post-season run. It seems to me that they haven't been so highly regarded, that there hasn't been this much excitement heading into the season since... well, since 2013. Remember when they fleeced the Marlins for two quality starting pitchers and an All-Star shortstop whilst simultaneously acquiring a Cy Young winner from the Mets? They couldn't miss. How did that work out anyway?

Everybody's got a plan until they get punched in the mouth. This team looks pretty good, they really do. But the punches are coming. They always do. And then we'll see.

The Texas Rangers provide the opposition for this opening series, and the Jays and Rangers hooked up in a couple of fun divisional series back in the day, way back in 2015 and 2016. It may not seem all that long ago, but only one of the players who appeared in that series is still a member of one of the teams that will meet this weekend. That would be Texas southpaw Martin Perez, back in the fold after stops in Minnesota and Boston. The Blue Jays do have the same pitching coach and third base coach, but I'm pretty sure Walker and Rivera are the only uniformed Jays personnel who were around for Jose's mighty bat flip and Donaldson's mad dash home. Good times, no?

As for this year's troop of Rangers, despite some extremely impressive upgrades in the middle of their infield, they will probably struggle to win as often as they lose. The 2021 edition lost 102 games, so there's a lot of ground that they need to make up. No AL team scored fewer runs last year, and only two AL teams allowed more. Semien and Seager will surely help improve that, on both sides of the ball. They've also brought in a couple of veterans (Brad Miller and Kole Calhoun) to fill the corner outfield spots, which might work.  I somehow suspect at least one of those guys will turn out to be more or less past his best-by date (Calhoun, I bet.) They can feel good about centre fielder Adolis Garcia, who hit 31 homers and finished fourth in the Rookie-of-the-Year voting last year, but they'd probably feel even better if he wasn't already 29 years old. Did you know that? I didn't.

And their pitching... well, it doesn't inspire a great deal of confidence. Perez is back, and they signed Jon Gray from the Rockies. I assume they're hoping those two can provide roughly league average stability at the top of the rotation. Tryouts will be in progress for the other three spots. They have high hopes for Taylor Hearn, an enormous lefty who worked out of the pen last year. Spencer Howard and Dane Dunning, a couple of young RH of little accomplishment to date, will fill out the rotation for now. But hey, youneverknow.

Matchups? Of course!

Fri Apr 8 - Berrios (12-9, 3.52) vs Gray (8-12, 4.59)
Sat Apr 9 - Gausman (14-6, 2.81) vs Dunning (5-10, 4.51)
Sun Apr 10 - Ryu (14-10, 4.37) vs Howard (0-3, 9.70)

Let's get this thing started. Play ball!
Texas at Toronto, Apr 8-10 | 87 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
vw_fan17 - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#412029) #
Didn't see Gausman pitch at all in spring training. May have seen him pitch as an Oriole, but I don't tend to remember opposing pitchers too much.. Looking forward to watching him.
Glevin - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 03:26 PM EDT (#412031) #
Best lineup out there for opening day. Montoyo likes to use everyone on the roster so I'm sure we'll see tons of everyone in April but good to see what they think their best lineup is. I mean, Chapman, Jansen, and Biggio as the bottom of the order is absolutely ridiculous.
grjas - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 05:31 PM EDT (#412033) #
I see Montoyo settled on VG batting 3rd. Fewer at bats over the season vs batting 2nd, I know, but I’m still old school and prefer this order. Speedsters in front of boppers works for me. Not that it probably matters much with this lineup.
Polite Nate - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#412035) #
Yeah, once we got past putting actively bad hitters at number two because they can bunt or something I can't get too picky about the nitty gritty myself.
scottt - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 05:50 PM EDT (#412036) #
I've seen Gausman over and over. He never had that splitter though.
Gaus is from Colorado like Doc. The 2 best pitchers to ever come out of that state?

I think they looked at the Jays lineup and decided to skip both lefties for this series.

Magpie - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 06:49 PM EDT (#412037) #
The 2 best pitchers to ever come out of [Colorado]?

Doc and Goose Gossage, for the moment.

And the only pitcher ever to pick off three Blue Jays baserunners in the same inning would certainly merit an Honourable Mention.
Magpie - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#412039) #
Only five guys left from the last Toronto home opener? I guess that's Gurriel, Hernandez, Jansen, Mayza, and Thornton.
Michael - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#412040) #
Exiting to kick off the year, but always humbling to have the first AB be an opponent HR.
Gerry - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#412041) #
Berrios wasn't good in the spring but there was an excuse, not throwing a curve for example. Somethings not right.
Magpie - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 07:59 PM EDT (#412042) #
Just got punched in the mouth, I think.
scottt - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 08:05 PM EDT (#412043) #
Lineup full of left bats. Semien and Garver know Berrios very well.
Defense was shaky all around.

Polite Nate - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 08:06 PM EDT (#412044) #
His stuff looked pretty sharp to me but not a lot of command compared to usual.
mathesond - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 08:08 PM EDT (#412045) #
Well, thank goodness the home run came on the first at bat of the inning.
greenfrog - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 08:13 PM EDT (#412046) #
Maybe this one is the prequel, and tomorrow’s game will be the movie?
Magpie - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 08:14 PM EDT (#412047) #
Maybe it was the ear-splitting ad for something I don't care about?
greenfrog - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#412048) #
Berrios’s subpar pitching and early exit, Chapman’s bobble, Jansen’s passed ball, Biggio’s inability to complete the double play. An awful lot went wrong in the first inning for Toronto.
rpriske - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 08:46 PM EDT (#412049) #
That awful first inning aside, I really wish they would stop wasting Vladi hitting 3rd. It statistically minimizes the effects of his production.

He should hit 2nd or 4th.
mathesond - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 08:52 PM EDT (#412050) #
Selfishly, I think the worst part of tonight's game is that I have to wake up early and so will be asleep when they complete the comeback.
Magpie - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 09:00 PM EDT (#412051) #
Eephus texted to inquire if this was the worst Opening Day start in Jays history. I was pretty sure it wasn't, and it's not.

It's the second-worst. I was in the house for the worst one, 40 freaking years ago.

Time for the season's first Data Table!

Pitcher    Year    IP    H    R    ER    BB    SO    HR    ERA    BF    GSc
                                           
Bill Singer    1977    4.1 11    4    3    3    5    1    6.23    28    29
Dave Lemanczyk, L (0-1)     1978    3.2  7    5    5    4    3    2   12.27    21    26
Tom Underwood, L (0-1)     1979    1.2  3    9    3    4    1    0   16.20    14    22
Dave Lemanczyk, L (0-1)     1980    0.2  4    4    2    0    0    0   27.00    7    32
Jim Clancy     1981    6    5    2    1    3    1    0    1.50    26    54
Mark Bomback, L (0-1)     1982    0.1  6    6    6    1    1    1  162.00    8    15
Dave Stieb, W (1-0)     1983    6    3    1    1    4    7    1    1.50    27    65
Jim Clancy    1984    7.2  5    1    1    3    6    1    1.17    28    68
Dave Stieb, L (0-1)    1985    6.2  5    2    2    1    3    0    2.70    28    58
Dave Stieb, L (0-1)     1986    4.1  6    5    5    4    3    1   10.38    23    30
Jimmy Key, W (1-0)    1987    6    3    2    2    3    3    1    3.00    23    58
Jimmy Key, W (1-0)    1988    6    8    2    2    1    4    1    3.00    27    51
Jimmy Key, W (1-0)    1989    6    6    2    2    0    4    0    3.00    23    56
Todd Stottlemyre, L (0-1)    1990    3.2  5    3    3    4    2    1    7.36    20    37
Dave Stieb, L (0-1)     1991    5    4    5    5    2    2    1    9.00    21    39
Jack Morris, W (1-0)    1992    9    5    2    2    3    7    2    2.00    35    73
Jack Morris, L (0-1)   1993    4.1 10    7    7    4    2    1   14.54    28    13
Juan Guzman, W (1-0)     1994    7    7    2    2    3    4    0    2.57    31    56
David Cone, W (1-0)     1995    6    5    1    1    2    5    0    1.50    25    61
Erik Hanson, W (1-0)     1996    7    4    3    3    4    5    1    3.86    28    58
Pat Hentgen     1997    8    9    4    4    1    4    1    4.50    34    51
Roger Clemens, W (1-0)     1998    7    2    1    1    3    3    0    1.29    27    69
Pat Hentgen, L (0-1)     1999    6   10    2    2    0    2    0    3.00    26    46
David Wells    2000    6    5    2    2    0    5    0    3.00    23    59
Esteban Loaiza, W (1-0)    2001    7    8    1    1    1    9    0    1.29    30    65
Chris Carpenter     2002    2.1  6    6    6    3    3    4   23.14    16    21
Roy Halladay, L (0-1)     2003    5.2  7    8    3    4    2    2    4.76    28    31
Roy Halladay, L (0-1)     2004    6.2 10    7    6    2    9    3    8.10    32    35
Roy Halladay, W (1-0)     2005    7    9    2    2    0    7    0    2.57    29    58
Roy Halladay, W (1-0)     2006    7.2  5    3    2    0    4    2    2.35    29    63
Roy Halladay     2007    6    6    3    2    1    4    0    3.00    26    53
Roy Halladay, L (0-1)     2008    7    7    3    3    2    3    1    3.86    27    52
Roy Halladay, W (1-0)     2009    7    6    5    5    1    2    2    6.43    27    46
Shaun Marcum    2010    7    2    3    3    1    6    1    3.86    25    66
Ricky Romero, W (1-0)     2011    6.1  7    3    1    0    7    0    1.42    27    58
Ricky Romero    2012    5    3    4    4    3    4    1    7.20    20    46
R.A. Dickey, L (0-1)     2013    6    5    4    3    4    4    1    4.50    27    48
R.A. Dickey, L (0-1)     2014    5    5    6    6    6    4    0   10.80    26    31
Drew Hutchison, W (1-0)     2015    6    3    1    1    2    3    1    1.50    23    63
Marcus Stroman, W (1-0)     2016    8    6    3    3    1    5    1    3.38    32    62
Marco Estrada    2017    6    5    2    2    2    4    0    3.00    24    56
J.A. Happ, L (0-1)    2018    4.2  4    3    2    1    5    1    3.86    20    50
Marcus Stroman     2019    7    2    0    0    4    7    0    0.00    25    76
Hyun Jin Ryu    2020    4.2  4    3    3    3    4    1    5.79    22    45
Hyun Jin Ryu    2021    5.1  4    2    2    1    5    1    3.38    21    56
Jose Berrios    2022    0.1  3    4    4    2    0    1  108.00     7    27

Going by Game Score, the worst was actually Jack Morris' lousy outing in 1993. But at least Jack pitched into the fifth inning. Bomback and Berrios both got knocked out before recording a second out. Morris also has one of the two best, with his 1992 Statement of Purpose. But top honours should probably go to Marcus Stroman in 2019, in what was probably the highlight of a pretty dismal season.

But the Opening Day master? Jimmy Key.
christaylor - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 09:01 PM EDT (#412052) #
I think this movie might be a reboot of one made in 2013. (kidding and wrong... I hope)
Magpie - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 09:06 PM EDT (#412053) #
I didn't line up the top row properly. Clearly not in mid-season form.
Polite Nate - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 09:30 PM EDT (#412054) #
Pinch hitting Espinal as early as the 5th is a sign of how things might look between him and Biggio this year.
hypobole - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#412055) #
Win or lose this game, the movie is nothing like 2013.
Magpie - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 09:48 PM EDT (#412056) #
So, a few blocks away, a lousy team from Texas jumped out to a huge early lead (53-29 in the second quarter) but it appears that the hometown heroes were just toying with them.
christaylor - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 10:01 PM EDT (#412057) #
Don't be daft. None of us have seen it yet. I enjoy this team as we all do but favorites to win the division in the preseason can always disappoint.
ae_scott - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 10:33 PM EDT (#412058) #
This game is bonkers.
grjas - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 11:07 PM EDT (#412059) #
Sheesh.
hypobole - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 11:09 PM EDT (#412060) #
Fans at the game got their money's worth.
DavidtheDeuce - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 11:24 PM EDT (#412061) #
Robo Umps can't come soon enough for me.

Teo should have been called safe in the moment of the play. It really diminishes the fan experience when a video replay is required.

This season will be a fun ride!

Michael - Friday, April 08 2022 @ 11:25 PM EDT (#412062) #
Nice call from mathesond "I think the worst part of tonight's game is that I have to wake up early and so will be asleep when they complete the comeback". I think they were down 7-0 or 7-1 when that was posted.
StephenT - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 01:39 AM EDT (#412063) #
The Jays didn't make any defensive replacements when they had the lead the last 2 innings.
mathesond - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 05:17 AM EDT (#412065) #
Ha yep, it was 7-0. And as it turned out, I stayed up to watch the whole thing, sleep be damned (but probably a god thing the TTC will be doing the driving!)
scottt - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 05:30 AM EDT (#412066) #
Collins and Tapia are not good defender. Do you expect Katoh to replace anybody in the infield defensively?
Zimmer is not on the team yet and both Gurriel and Teoscar had a good night out there.

Interestingly, Teoscar is the one Jay who didn't hit at all during spring training.

ISLAND BOY - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 06:24 AM EDT (#412067) #
" probably a god thing the TTC will be doing the driving."

Jesus take the wheel.
Glevin - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 07:50 AM EDT (#412068) #
What a game. One interesting note. Espinal hit two balls harder than he hit all last session. If that new strength translates into much harder exit velocities, he's a legit starting infielder.
hypobole - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#412072) #
Don't be daft. None of us have seen it yet. I enjoy this team as we all do but favorites to win the division in the preseason can always disappoint.

Yes, disappointments can happen. We saw it last year and a few times in late 80's. And it could happen this year. But 2013 wasn't a disappointment, it was a disaster, finishing 14 games under .500. How remote a possibility is that with this team?
hypobole - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 10:03 AM EDT (#412073) #
"Collins and Tapia are not good defender."

All of UZR, DRS and OAA had Tapia as at least a slight plus defender in LF last year.
Petey Baseball - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 12:40 PM EDT (#412077) #
What a game. A few observations.

1. A lot is said about crowd noise and turnouts and atmosphere at the dome and whatnot....look I'm not the oldest around here, I remember going to season openers and home openers where it was "sold out" but most people were not watching the game. There were embarrassing alcohol fueled crowd mishaps (fights, attention seeking morons running on the field), and other stuff that just brought an amateurish look to the entire operation.

But man is it amazing to have a loud, baseball-intelligent crowd like last show up to the first game. I still prefer the traditional 1:05 start for Opening Day or Home Opener, but I truly can't remember by heart that last time that happened....2004 maybe? Anyway, well done to all those who showed up on time looking and sounding the part, and the seven run comeback didn't hurt.

2. I've posted last year that I was surprised Trent Thornton was still was on the Jays, and am more baffled this year. His appearance last night with the team being down 7-0 and he skipping breaking balls in the dirt and was a quick reminder of both his mechanical (I've never liked his delivery from the very first pitch I saw him throw) flaws, and mental lapses (seriously...he must lead the league in errors on pickoff throws the last few years). The fact he may have been the best Jays arm in 2019 is an indication to just how far the org has come). Anyways, I don't expect he will escape DFA through the first few roster moves, and while he seems like a pretty nice guy, I won't be sad when he's gone.

3. I can't remember if I ever advocated for cutting bait on Teoscar Hernandez through the dark days of '17-20, but how happy are we that the Jays front office remained patient? The Bautista career arc/comparison was always the easy one to make, but the combination of his power and speed (that was incredible he scored from first on that rather short double to left field and a fantastic relay....that's some seriously amazing speed) I think makes him even more valuable than Jose was...and that's saying a lot, obviously.

4. I like the Espinal/Biggio platoon at second a lot for the time being, but I'm fairly confident in predicting that Espinal will have the full time duties very soon. If Espinal was a left handed hitter, I doubt Cavan would still be a Blue Jay. I always thought Santiago would be fine as a starting infielder (provided there was enough offense around to off-set his limitations at the plate...which aren't really limitations anymore, frankly). It has been sad to see Biggio fall off so much, but he will get a shot somewhere else.
Magpie - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 03:23 PM EDT (#412081) #
The historical record says that Seager singled on a groundball to the second basemen, and future generations will think it was an infield hit.
mathesond - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 04:14 PM EDT (#412082) #
Sounds like future generations will have a lot of time on their hands :)
Magpie - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#412084) #
Surely the future we've long been promised will become a reality. Jetpacks, colonies on the moon, robots to do the jobs we don't want to do....
scottt - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 04:26 PM EDT (#412085) #
Tapia doesn't have a good arm. That's kind of a requirement for a defensive replacement.
Gurriel made a couple of nice plays last night and would have gunned down a runner if his throw has been on target.

Mike Green - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 04:31 PM EDT (#412086) #
The boxscores will be retrofitted to record Biggio 4-8.5 and Seager's hit as LDS 8.5.  Easy-peasy.

Biggio prior to his injury would have been money against a pitcher like Dunning.  He looks nothing like that.  Espinal is going to get a lot of work.
Magpie - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 04:35 PM EDT (#412087) #
The boxscores will be retrofitted

Let us hope, because Seager just singled on a line drive to the second basemnan!
Magpie - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 04:37 PM EDT (#412088) #
Man. I just got a new keyboard and it's very different and very weird and I think I'm going to be a non-stop typo machinbe for the next little while.
uglyone - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 05:05 PM EDT (#412089) #
Espinal looks as good as Biggio looks bad.
mathesond - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 05:10 PM EDT (#412090) #
Well, the Jays gave up a World Series MVP for him, he better look good!
scottt - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 05:36 PM EDT (#412091) #
I like him coming off the bench. It's like a bait and switch.
Mike Green - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 05:38 PM EDT (#412092) #
That was a good bunt by Tapia.  He had a decent chance to beat it or draw a wild throw. 
scottt - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 05:59 PM EDT (#412093) #
So Romano franchise leader in consecutive saves?
Magpie - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#412094) #
Romano franchise leader in consecutive saves?

Now tied with Henke.
greenfrog - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 06:18 PM EDT (#412095) #
I assume two days in a row will be Romano’s limit this year.
Magpie - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#412096) #
I assume two days in a row will be Romano’s limit this year.

It's how he did it last year. Romano pitched on consecutive days 11 times, but never on three straight days.

I was curious as to how Henke's streak ended. This was 1991 - Henke picked up two saves in the first week, then pulled a hamstring and missed almost six weeks. Duane Ward filled in and - for the first time - was consistently great (Ward had spent three years going back and forth between great and not-so-good, often in the same week.) Henke ran off 23 saves in his next 23 chances and by mid-August, there he was with his 0-0, 1.38 log with his 25 saves.br>
The Jays played Detroit on a Thursday night and Ward - who had pitched on Tuesday and Wednesday - seems not to have been available. And nobody could score a run. Candiotti went 7. He was followed by McDonald, Weathers, Acker and Henke came on in the 12th. He got out of that inning, struck out the side in the 13th, but got hammered for four runs in the 14th. That's not the blown save - his next outing was the blown save, when Paul Molitor got to him for a 3-run walkoff homer in the ninth.

Henke only gave up 13 runs all year, and 7 of them came in those two games. Yes, I will sing the Song of the Terminator until they send me to that crumbling grandstand in the sky.
GabrielSyme - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 06:47 PM EDT (#412097) #
Any idea what happens with Zimmer? He seems pretty much to occupy the exact same role as Tapia. Drop one of the relievers until the end of the month seems logical, but then there's the question of what to do on May 1st if everyone is healthy - and long-term, it seems silly to use two roster spots for essentially the same role.
Mike Green - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#412098) #
The crumbling grandstand in the sky? As long as there are electric guitars instead of violins, I'm not gonna complain about the needed celestial stadium repairs. Who wants to be that guy for eternity?
Chuck - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 08:16 PM EDT (#412099) #
Any idea what happens with Zimmer?

It's funny how conditioned we have become to a 3-man bench that a soon-to-be mandated 4-man bench somehow seems oddly wasteful. I don't say this mockingly, only to illustrate how dramatically roster construction has changed over the years.

It wasn't that long ago -- or maybe it was, time speeds up as you get older -- that a typical roster was 15 position players and 10 pitchers, so your bench was full of platoon guys named Garth and maybe a rule 5 pickup riding the pine or a guy whose job description was pinch-hitter. Eventually, little by little, the norm became 12 position players and 13 pitchers, 5 starters and 8 guys who could throw 97 MPH for one inning (with a couple more AAA relievers of similar bent ready for life on the shuttle). Your bench was a catcher, one infielder and one outfielder.

Now that teams are "forced" into 13 position players, teams are wondering... Do we carry an outfielder who won't play much? Or an infielder who won't play much? Or maybe even a third catcher who won't play much? Earl Weaver never had a problem figuring out what to do with extra puzzle pieces, but modern organizations not named the Rays don't have that instinct and would surely opt for yet another reliever if the rules permitted.

Chuck - Saturday, April 09 2022 @ 08:26 PM EDT (#412100) #
As long as there are electric guitars instead of violins

Hey, there should be room for both! And you'll need the violins, especially the world's tiniest ones, when the Big Guy (enter deity of your choice) tries to get a state or province to fund the replacement of His celestial crumbling grandstand, replete, of course, with ample desk space for the purveyor of windy lore.

Gerry - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#412101) #
Zimmer has made it to Toronto. Katoh has been optioned with one pinch running appearance on his resume.
Mike Green - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 10:42 AM EDT (#412102) #
Tapia in CF with Springer DHing and Espinal at second base. Kirk gets the day off.
Nigel - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 10:50 AM EDT (#412103) #
This was always going to be the problem with the Grichuk trade.
scottt - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 11:33 AM EDT (#412104) #
The pinch hitter was really a NL thing. It's not really needed with a DH.
Also the defensive replacement lost its shine once you have a bunch or fire throwing relievers who don't put the ball in play much.

Now, it's all about running lots of platoons. As long as the ump sits between the hitter and the catcher, outside sliders are routinely called strikes. The 2 first games had 5 Texas left bats. Today's game again Ryu will only have 1.

scottt - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 11:38 AM EDT (#412105) #
In a way, it's Espinal who stole his playing time.
hypobole - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 12:18 PM EDT (#412108) #
Don't remember this being posted, but I found a projection system I haven't seen before at FG.

"ATC is smart aggregation of other projections; its methodology is based on the process that Nate Silver uses with his political forecasting model over at FiveThirtyEight.

While most other accumulation models apply equal weight to their underlying sources, ATC assigns weights based on historical performance.

Over the past few years, ATC has consistently been one of the most accurate baseball forecasting models. Indeed, according to FantasyPros, the ATC projections have been the most accurate baseball projections over the past three seasons."

The one thing I noticed is that while it also has the Jays as the best in the AL East, the gap is greater than other systems I've seen, 4 games over the Yankees, 6 over Boston/Tampa.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/atc-2022-projected-standings-and-playoff-odds/
Mike Green - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 01:06 PM EDT (#412110) #
Nigel, it's definitely a risk of the trade but it doesn't have to be. Montoya could have given Springer a DH day yesterday with Kirk catching, and had the opening day lineup with Espinal for Biggio today. Gurriel Jr. does not need a DH day very often. Montoya wanted to give Tapia two starts in a row. Hopefully that does not continue. He did that and more with Grichuk which is an equally poor idea.
Polite Nate - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#412111) #
I'm surprised it's Katoh going down and not Zach Collins. The Zimmer trade is weird. My first thought was that the Jays had really soured on Tapia over the spring or something, but now I wonder if the team just really likes Zimmer internally and took advantage of an opportunity if Cleveland was shopping him.
Nigel - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 01:18 PM EDT (#412112) #
Mike, I completely agree. But, Montoyo is constitutionally incapable of playing with less than all his toys. You have to avoid giving them to him in the first place. The 4th OF has to play, that’s a given. Hopefully Montoyo quickly comes to understand that Tapia is his 5th best option and really isn’t a CF.
hypobole - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#412116) #
When is the last time the Jays have swept a season opening series? I know it was before 2003.
scottt - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#412117) #
I was thinking maybe it's a mistake to move Chapman up to the sixth spot, but I guess not.
First hit as a Blue Jays, but it's going to cost you if you want to ball as a souvenir.

Chapman at 3rd seems like a great fit for Ryu.
I wonder if Espinal is not starting for defensive reasons here.

Kirk is not going to play every day, but I'd use him if they bring a lefty to face Tapia.
Then Zimmer can take over. 

Shoeless Joe - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 02:13 PM EDT (#412118) #
I think overall I like Zimmer more than Tapia. He has the hitting profile that the Jays have had some success with improving over the years and is a plus fielder.

The only intrigue for Tapia to me is seeing how much better results a lefty groundball hitter can get with the shift removed.
hypobole - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 02:21 PM EDT (#412119) #
Danny with HR #2 already. Last year it was the 30th game of the season before Danny hit his 1st.
scottt - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#412121) #
Of course, individual stats in April are not exactly predicting.
Key is to keep winning while load managing guys who need that.
Wouldn't surprise me to see a 6th starter to give Ryu an extra day when needed.

Mike Green - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 03:29 PM EDT (#412122) #
Good thing the club has its ace going tomorrow.
dalimon5 - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#412123) #
Yeah, good thing. We all know Manoah is a better pitcher than Berrios and Gausman. Long track backs up his pro rated season last year too…?
scottt - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 03:40 PM EDT (#412124) #
They might right handed pitching just fine, but the umps sure like to take the bats out of their hands.
The Jays are not even getting those outside calls on the Texas right bats.

ISLAND BOY - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#412125) #
Holy crap, I'm getting severe PTSD watching the bullpen implode today. The back end is good but middle relief might be our achilles heel going forward if they don't improve. The home plate umpire is having a rough day, too.

I agree with Mike Green. Manoah is going to be our ace, if not this year then the near future.
Mike Green - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 04:30 PM EDT (#412126) #
Nice job there by Siddall showing Jansen's poor framing of Stripling's pitches.  I thought so live and it was good to have it confirmed.
scottt - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 05:18 PM EDT (#412127) #
Well, that can be worked on.

Kirk also had a few bad frames on Gaus. After one take, you could see him asking the catcher if he was expecting another pitch.

The Rangers have a much improved offense, but that's mostly out of the way.
2 out of 3 ain't bad.

John Northey - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#412129) #
Umpire scorecards for 2 of the 3 games are online...




Very poor work vs last year for these guys. Guess the umps needed more spring training too. A called strike below 90% is extremely poor. My gut says todays was just as bad if not worse. Roboumps now!
John Northey - Sunday, April 10 2022 @ 11:38 PM EDT (#412130) #
Umpire Scorecards has an updated site - the old links don't work anymore. For Andy Fletcher that game on Saturday was his worst since April 26th 2019 (SD vs Washington) for accuracy overall. He once had a 98.2% accuracy (2021-04-23 Cleveland vs NYY). His worst was a 82.2% (2015-04-15 Cubs vs Reds). Stats from 2015 to present.

Bill Welke has had a LOT of worse games - his best was a 98.2% (2019-08-06 Det vs CWS), worst an 82.7% 2015-07-09 (NYY vs Oak) but since 2020 started just one game sub 90 for accuracy (88.8% so very close).

Fun site - helps one tell if the ump was really off or if it was just our imagination. I still want roboumps for ball-strike calls though. If there is a desire to speed blowups then when the spread is 10 or more you increase the strike zone automatically by 10% or something. Same if you want close calls to be strikes on 3-0 counts. Then everyone knows it and it isn't up to an individual ump to decide.
hypobole - Monday, April 11 2022 @ 08:46 AM EDT (#412131) #
A few months back, MLB was hiring people to run the ABS system in 10 PCL parks and Charlotte in the IL. Anyone heard anything since?
John Northey - Monday, April 11 2022 @ 11:09 AM EDT (#412133) #
Here it is for yesterday....

11 out of 57 called strikes were wrong.  Yikes. Direct cost to the Jays of 1 1/2 runs, but could be more if you factor in how rally's happened or didn't happen.  For all games he has umpired since 2015 this is the 2nd worst for overall accuracy (86.5%,, worst was 84.7% 2019-09-09)  His best is a 98.2 2021-09-25 at 98.2%.  Might have just been a REALLY bad day for him.

Mike Green - Monday, April 11 2022 @ 11:20 AM EDT (#412135) #
It was bad but the framing played a significant role. 
John Northey - Monday, April 11 2022 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#412136) #
One more interesting thing - Baseball Trade Values has a winter summary up.  Dollar figures are what value they put on the player (what he should produce vs being paid for the rest of his controllable time)
  • March 16 - Chapman ($24.1) for Gunnar Hoglund ($9.3), Kevin Smith ($4.7), Zach Logue ($0.7), and Kirby Snead ($0.3) = $24.1 value for $15.0 cost - an excellent trade on paper for the Jays.  Especially if Chapman can cut those K's down a bit (he needs to watch Vlad more).
  • March 24 - Tapia ($0.0) and Adrian Pinto ($1.6) for Grichuk (-$12.2) and cash ($9.7 mil) = $1.6 mil for -$2.5 mil = +$4.1 for the Jays.  Tapia is only at 0 due to the ability to release him at nearly no cost (-$1.7 otherwise).  I'm hoping the Jays take the release option and soon as Tapia didn't look good this weekend imo.  Net gain of $2.4 to $4.1 mil for the Jays.
  • April 3 - Collins ($0.0) for McGuire ($2.9) = net loss of $2.9 mil for the Jays, but odds were high that McGuire would be let go regardless soon (not sure how long until Collins is sent down as he is just warming the bench now)
  • April 7 - Zimmer ($0.2) for Castro ($0.2) = as fair a trade as possible.  But given Castro was no better than 13th on the Jays depth chart for the pen (and probably lower) while Zimmer is on the bench in the majors this is a net win for the Jays imo.
Total = $7.1 + $2.4  - $2.9 + $0 = $6.5 mil of value gained minimum, $7.2 if they dump Tapia quickly.

Nice post-lockout set of deals, mainly due to the Chapman one, but Pinto could be something if the Jays get lucky.
Polite Nate - Monday, April 11 2022 @ 11:29 AM EDT (#412137) #
IMO for Stripling in particular, Jansen is getting a bad rap. Some of those curveballs were just plummeting through the zone - they might have clipped the zone on the way through but they looked to me like they were landing on his shoe tops. Not sure Stripling is ever going to steal many strikes at the bottom of the zone like that when the batter lays off.

There was definitely a couple times where Kirk was either crossed up or just boxed things up.

I don't know if it's coincidence or not but all three games seemed to have a noticeably wide zone but not very high.
Polite Nate - Monday, April 11 2022 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#412138) #
Never mind, just paid closer attention to the card from yesterday, which had a higher zone than I thought.
Cracka - Monday, April 11 2022 @ 12:27 PM EDT (#412139) #
I'm pretty sure Tapia's $3.95 million is fully guaranteed now that the regular season has begun. Arbitration contracts are non-guaranteed in Spring Training only (with 30-45 days of termination pay required) - it would have cost ~$1M to cut him before last Friday, but now they are financially committed to him and might have to pay some of his salary if they want to try to trade him somewhere. They've given him two starts so far... but not sure how he fits in along with Zimmer.
Chuck - Monday, April 11 2022 @ 12:58 PM EDT (#412140) #
I don't know if it's coincidence or not but all three games seemed to have a noticeably wide zone but not very high.

I think you will see that this is a common theme. Many umpires call outside pitches strikes. Some umpires have issues with the very top of the strike zone and some with the very bottom. So those are typically the strikes called balls. I would say that I believe they have improved over the years, but I am definitely ready for them to be replaced by machines. It seems inevitable that they will eventually.

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