I assume that should be Espinal, not Espino.

Lukes has been optioned so the last spot is between Borucki and Collins.

I dunno rpriske, the link does go to Sebastian Espino...

Price of copy/pasting and doing it too quick I guess on the automatics. Grabbed a row too low. Sigh. Getting old. Fixed now.

Collins on the Jays website is listed as being optioned to Buffalo and is listed on Buffalo's roster as being there along with 3 other catchers. Bec, Moreno, and Deglan (starter for today's game). Still just 2 outfielders listed there. Kellin Deglan has only 3 games at 1B to go with all his time behind the plate (over 600 games). Chris Bec has 2 pro innings at 3B and 6 games in RF in college so I doubt he is moving, plus his bat isn't great (219/322/308 career in minors, peak was AA before now). Collins might be getting a lot of 1B/DH time as his defense isn't great and his bat has potential (I don't see it but he did have an OPS over 1000 in college so who knows?). Moreno is obviously going to play a LOT but could be promoted quickly if he is healthy and shows his bat is as good as last year suggested.

Technically, Lukes is on a minor contract, so he's not really optioned.

Maybe they're still debating what to do?
They could be watching the waiver line.

I wonder where Josh Fuentes is? I assumed he would be in Buffalo. Maybe just getting some extra prep time since he was signed late?

Same as Dexter Fowler I expect. Also where is Mallex Smith, did he have an out?

Did Smith play much?

Fowler arrived quite late, so his out is likely later.

Bird is back with the Yankees on a minor contract.

I see Keith Law has picked the Jays to not only win the AL East, but also the World Series (over the Dodgers, no less). Obviously he hates the Jays, otherwise why would he be trying to jinx them?

The last time the Jays were the favorites everywhere was 2013.

Fortunately this year, they aren't favourites everywhere.

Ramirez signs extension in Cleveland so he's not going anywhere. He gave them discount too. Really don't get players like this but those are his choices.

Ramirez contract also has a full no-trade clause. That should put and end to the incessant blather.

Once the Chapman trade went through, Ramirez didn't really make much sense. You'd have to play him out of position. He hasn't played 2B since 2018. Long-term needs for Jays IMO are CF and SS (to push Springer and Bo down the defensive spectrum where they are better suited).

If the need arose, Bichette could make the Yount transition to CF.  It is always good to be deep at SS, CF and C, as those are the positions with very particular refined skills and there are natural places to move (almost always) down the spectrum.    The Jays could definitely use more depth at SS and CF. 

Bo's style of throwing on the run is not suited for second base.
CF is really the only spot they need to fill.

That looks like a good offense to me.

But to be a truly top offense it looks to me like they really need a breakout from someone, probably a youngster - maybe it's Bo breaking out to a new level, or Biggio having a bounceback, or Kirk/Moreno stepping in as an impact, or even maybe Espinal carrying over what he did last year into a fulltime role.

I really wish they had added another established impact bat though, and there's a decent chance they'll be we looking for exactly that come deadline day. Much like last year when the need for another dependable SP was clear from day one.

Hopefully though we do get that breakout performance from someone (without anyone else having a breakdown performance of course).

My money’s on Chapman to have a big year with the bat, assuming good health. The hip will be better and he’ll like the ALE parks.

Like many others I'm glad Ramirez is staying in Cleveland. Makes a ton of sense for both him and the team. $124 for an extra 5 years is below market but still good money. He is set for ages 29-35 at which point he'll probably just sign year to year to stick around Cleveland if still productive. Nice for each team to have its home grown star. For years Tampa had Evan Longoria, and now Wander Franco should be there for a very long time. I figure this is what hurts teams like Oakland who can contend but never get much fan support - fans like having someone to cheer on year in/year out. My daughter still misses Tulo & Bautista, but is getting used to Vlad & Bo. C'mon Jays, lock them in for 10 years.

when i say "breakout" i mean significantly better than projected.

as a baseline, we can look at the combined Zips/Steamer projected wRC+


* Guerrero 162 (665pa)
* Springer 128 (637pa)
* Bichette 124 (658pa)
* Teoscar 116 (651pa)
* Chapman 111 (651pa)
* Gurriel 109 (588pa)
* Biggio 101 (532pa)

* Kirk 117 (379pa)
* Jansen 105 (398pa)

* Tapia 86 (504pa)
* Espinal 85 (336pa)
* Collins 89 (52pa)
* Fowler 82 (56pa)
* Katoh 78 (91pa)

* Moreno 102 (---pa)

too close not to add a little more IMO.

Personally, I am more worried about their bullpen than their batting. It’s improved from last year, but then it was pretty crappy for much of 2021. If this is the list, we have 5 dependable guys and 5 hard to predict ones. A few injuries to the first half and it could be trouble.

1- Jordan Romano
2- Yimi Garcia
3- Tim Mayza
4- Adam Cimber
5- Trevor Richards
6- David Phelps
7- Ross Stripling
8- Julian Merryweather
9- Tayler Saucedo
10- Trent Thornton

I never worry too much about relievers. I think there's a bunch of good arms in there, and theoretically the deep starting staff should take a lot of strain off the bullpen.

though of course Montoyo does love his early hooks anyways.

Montoyo tends to be fine when everything proceeds in an orderly way. SP goes 5-7 innings, then single innings from his rested high-leverage arms to preserve the win or keep the game close.

The problems last year seemed to occur when unexpected things occurred, as when Chatwood started the season strong but then unravelled. It took a while for Montoyo to process that this was happening and to adapt accordingly (although it should be said that his bullpen options were pretty limited much of the time).

Agreed that the Jays could use one more impact position player. They'll probably also need a couple of more pitchers by the time the trade deadline rolls around.

According to ZIPs, Jays weak spots are bullpen LF, RF, and 2B. The issue with the offense is that Gurriel, Teoscar, and Biggio/Espinal is already pretty good with upside to be better than that. They are predicted to give 4.9 WAR at those 3 positions but I could easily see that being 7-8 WAR too. You always want to upgrade if you can, but as of right now, Jays have a top-3 offense in baseball. Jays are in a good position and they can add if necessary.

The importance of bullpens is often under rated as reliever results bounce from year to year and mid inning relievers are of little interest to most fans. Fangraphs estimates that over 40 percent of innings in the last few years have been thrown by relievers, making the BP almost as important as the SP.

Last year, the Jays were done in by their BP, whereas the Rays BP was arguably the main reason they hit 100 wins.

There are definitely some good arms in this year’s pen and they have a chip on the shoulder, so hopefully all works out. But I still think it’s the biggest risk.

Trevor Rosenthal is still available. I assume the main reason he has not signed yet is he's not quite at full health yet. But he seems likely to return at some point this season. He's risky in terms of health, but for only money and no assets surrendered, he'd be a good signing to add a high leverage arm.

Bullpens are important, sure, but imo i still wouldn't support the FO spending valuable assets on RP. Much too variable - imo an FO earns his keep by making smart value reliever adds.

Whereas i would defenitely support spending those assets on another legit impact Bat.

And I do think one of the best things you can do for your bullpen is to improve the starting rotation.

It's quite puzzling that Conforto remains unsigned when he's such an obvious fit for this team. Perhaps he refuses to get vaccinated and/or doesn't want a pillow contract.

Fangraphs estimates that over 40 percent of innings in the last few years have been thrown by relievers, making the BP almost as important as the SP. Interesting stat, although of course not all those innings are equal - in some cases, the game is very much in the balance when in the hands of the bullpen and the shortened time horizon increases the importance of those innings; in other cases, the game is effectively out of reach and the innings are nearly meaningless in terms of their impact on the result. Would be interested to see a study breaking down "significant" innings pitched by starters and relievers over the past several seasons (acknowledging that no really good definition of "significant" is likely available).

Maybe teams are wary of the shoulder injury Conforto sustained in January. There is also the draft pick compensation issue. Conforto also had a down year in 2021. So there are reasons a team might look elsewhere to address its outfield needs.

i still wouldn't support the FO spending valuable assets on RP.

I agree with that. I’d just feel more comfortable if they had 1 or 2 more Cimber/Richard’s calibre guys who aren’t that expensive. Anyway, hopefully Merryweather and Phelps stay healthy and produce to their talent levels,

(And yeah, I wouldn’t complain about another big bat.)

Conforto is a Boras client. I imagine he'd be looking for something like a 3 year deal with a bunch of opt outs.
No, thank you.

My breakout relative to Zips/Steamer projections is Espinal's 85 wRC+. This exchange from July 19 last year helps explain my thinking.

"On one hand Espinal's been sheltered against RH pitching and his team-leading .389 BABIP can't be sustainable. On the other hand, his numbers against RH pitching are actually better than LH. And he seems to be improving as a hitter, which may help offset at least some of the inevitable BABIP drop."

"It's always helpful to do a bit of babip math.

Take 80pts off Espinal's babip and he has a .294obp and a .355slg for a .649ops.

Which is, unsurprisingly, exactly what the projection systems guess will happen going forward."

Espinal from July 19 through October 3 hit 290/377/374, for a .751 OPS. And that was with a .316 BABIP, so not quite an 80 pt drop, but pretty darn close.

Adding muscle this offseason should add to his power (lack of power?) numbers. Been an Espinal believer for quite some time and he hasn't failed me yet.

Those Zips projected standings make no sense, IMHO. When I run the Zips rate stats for the Jays together with my own (conservative) playing time projections it comes out as 843 runs scored and 720 allowed, which is a 93 win season. To get that down to 88 wins you have to project 3 or 4 major injuries to key players, and assume the team will make no trades to address such a scenario.

GabrielSyme was the high person on Espinal immediately after he was acquired in June 2018, as reflected in this post:

"I quite like the return here - Espinal is high on the defensive spectrum and has a little speed. With that foundation, his bat looks quite intriguing - a quite strong contact rate and enough power to make it work."

and assume the team will make no trades to address such a scenario.

That's part of the disclaimer. Teams that ke trade to strengthen will likely overperform the projections, team that trade away major league talent will probably underperform.

"I was late to the Espinal party, but I'm staying late to compensate. He's the anti-Kendry, and is going to outperform his xwOBAs and expected BABIPs for quite a few years. "

Would love to be wrong but it's hard to see this. Outperforming XOBA usually means great speed or hitting the ball hard and Espinal doesn't hit the ball hard and has average speed. If you take Jays with 150 PAs last year, he had the highest BABIP on the team last year with the most soft contact and the 2nd least (to McGuire) hard contact. It's not that his BABIP was a bit lucky, it was extremely lucky. He barely ever hit the ball hard or deep (Maybe hit 10 balls 300 feet all season). I still like him as a backup infielder because his glove is good and he can play all over and give you enough offense to not be useless.

Kendry underperformed xwOBA despite hitting the ball very hard because he hit it where they were. Espinal has the ability to control direction of contact much better and that's his advantage. He's not quite "Pequeno Santiago" like Wee Willie Keeler, but he's more in that mode.

Collins has made the opening day roster. Borucki is not on it.

Not sure if this was posted elsewhere, but this is an interesting read on Espinal's off-season workouts & attempts to add some muscle & power: https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/bulked-up-santiago-espinal-continues-flashing-improved-power-at-blue-jays-camp/

He's not going to hit 30 homers, obviously, but I could see him adding a lot more doubles.

Marcus Semien really seems to have left an impact on some of his teammates.

Borucki and Pearson to the IL.

Zack Collins has made the team (per his Twitter), confirmed by Keegan Matheson. Borucki and Pearson are headed to the IL. He's listed as a catcher, but hard to see him doing much catching.

It is the most logical move to make (Collins as the 28th man). Allows Kirk and Jansen to DH when not catching, and then Collins can just be insurance for extra innings (pinch run for Kirk or Jansen, then bring in Collins). Really, the 13th hitter wouldn't play much no matter who it was, outside of a good LH bat who'd have to DH all the time. Borucki and Pearson on the IL was very predictable. Hopefully they get healthy at some point, but anyone who counts on those 2 is making a big mistake.

Ugh, if the plan is to keep 3 catchers on the roster anyways, they would have been better off with McGuire who is a better MLB player right now. Hopefully this doesn't last long.

Not really the 28th man, because they'll have to keep 13 position players when the roster goes down to 26.

It feels like they considered dropping somebody from the 40 roster but ultimately didn't.

We'll see what Montoyo does but it gives the Jays 2 catchers who can potentially hit off the bench.

The 2 extra pitchers are Saucedo and Thornton.
Saucedo is the second lefty and Thornton is there to save the other arms.

It's not great for Borucki since he's out of options and they only guy he can bump--assuming everybody is healthy--is Merryweather.

Could last until Moreno is ready.

The Texas Rangers have arrived in Canada with their full roster and seemingly didn't need to leave any unvaccinated players behind. Kudos to Chris Woodward's team for being fully vaccinated and avoiding any potential distractions/excuses this weekend. The Athletics, Red Sox, and Astros are also coming in April, so will be interesting to see how others teams handle this.

"Kendry underperformed xwOBA despite hitting the ball very hard because he hit it where they were. Espinal has the ability to control direction of contact much better and that's his advantage."

Not really. Kendrys underperformed expected OBA because he was the slowest player in the majors for a long time and hit a lot of ground balls. If he had even average speed, his OBP would have been much higher. I am extremely skeptical that "hitting it where they ain't" is a repeatable skill in the majors.

Here's another example for you.  Espinal and Jansen.  Espinal's a little faster, but not much.  Jansen hits the ball harder.  So far Espinal has hit almost 100 points higher on ground balls and line drives.  Jansen is a pull hitter and  Espinal sprays it around.  Espinal's wOBA is .330 and his xwOBA is .302; Jansen's wOBA is .300 and his xwOBA is .328.  If you think that pulling the ball vs. spraying it around doesn't matter, you'd end up with Jansen expected to do considerably better than Espinal this year.  We'll see, but I've marked them down for similar numbers. 

We just traded Castro for Bradley Zimmer.

Unlike Tapia, Zimmer can actually play a quality CF.

The Jays just traded Anthony Castro for Bradley Zimmer. Doesn't do much for me

Assuming that he's healthy, that's a modest upgrade on Tapia so thumbs up to me.

Nice pickup. Zimmer has huge K issues but is an excellent fielder and Jays' best defensive OFer now. His statcast page is just wild. Good depth for the Jays.

I figured Castro was hanging by a thread.
Hard fastball and nasty slider but the results have been lacking.

Interesting Article on Kikuchi.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/the-adjustments-the-blue-jays-hope-will-unlock-yusei-kikuchis-upside/

(Sorry if someone posted this already).
I think the Jays have 4 pitchers that have the potential to be in the Cy Young talks (and Ryu was already there).

I expect that Collins goes to AAA and maybe the Jays move him from catcher.

Zimmer's out of options, so I assume Collins is not going to make it to Opening Day, after all?

I'm wondering if Tapia might be dumped in a trade for 'future considerations' or something now.

I like the Zimmer trade. Provides a solid bench option for excellent outfield defence and pinch running, and some pop. This trade makes Tapia redundant on this roster. I prefer Collins and Katoh on the roster over Tapia as it enables Kirk to DH when not catching with Katoh providing infield defence option off the bench.

Don't know if there's going to be an official predictions thread, so I'll get mine in here: Your 2022 Toronto Blue Jays will score 859 runs while allowing 686 on their way to a 97-win season.

I'm confident Tapia won't go. I think the Jays still want to see what he can do. I could be wrong though!

I don't see the need for a third catcher, for all the reasons we discussed all spring, particularly when they are not a strong defensive catcher. It made a lot more sense to carry McGuire than Collins.

However, I'm not convinced Charlie see it the same way. So I fear it could end up being Katoh. The fact they announced Katoh before Collins does make me think maybe Katoh is ahead of him on the big league roster. The only other option I could see is maybe Trent Thornton, but they seem pretty intent on taking 10 relievers.

There's no need for a third catcher unless you want to use of the catchers at DH.
An extra bat on the bench is always useful and Collins has an option and can play 1B.
McGuire is better only if he starts game and Moreno is the option here.

Tapia is a lot less useful and neither he nor Zimmer has options.
Zimmer is a decent CF. By OPS they are very similar. Zimmer strikes out more but also can take a walk. Tapia makes more contact.
Katoh is the better bench piece.

It might be a month’s worth of auditions for the two outfielders before making a call May 1. I’d be surprised if they drop Tapia right away, but the FO has been willing to cut bait quickly…Bird being the most recent casualty

Here is a tour of the new Dunedin complex with Mark Shapiro. There are two parts.

Zimmer is a nice fit, and it makes the Grichuk trade look even worse.

You can use Kirk at DH even without a third catcher. Why should an MLB team plan their roster on the minor possibility of losing the DH for a single game? It makes zero sense to me. Didn't Gibbons DH Navarro plenty of times? I could be forgetting but I don't think the Jays were carrying a third catcher at that time. I don't see how it's even risky.

Collins has no place on an MLB roster right now. He's been exactly as good a hitter as McGuire in his small MLB sample so far, isn't a viable catcher and has limited experience at 1B. His only value is as an interesting reclamation project you can send to AAA and play 1B to see if moving off a tough defensive position he can't handle allows his bat to take off. He wouldn't be the first such player to have a breakthrough after moving down the defensive spectrum.

I expect the difference between carrying Collins and Katoh for the month of April will be next to nil, but I do agree that the fear of losing the DH seems an odd consideration for roster construction purposes, when you consider the (frankly preposterous) number of arms in the bullpen and the fact that extra inning games rarely go past 10 or 11 frames in the age of the ghost runner. It's a vanishingly small number of at-bats that would conceivably be compromised.

Aw, Jonny German, your predicted win total is what I had in mind. I'll say 96 wins just because I'm not confident about Ryu and Kikuchi's performance this year. I also predict the Jays will win the home opener today 7-4 while hitting 4 home runs, 2 by Vlad. Semien also hits one in his return to Roger's Centre.

If this is the prediction thread, then maybe my question from the "AL East" thread is better asked in here:One famous "54" record held by a professional athlete in a Toronto uniform for 40 years fell yesterday..

Will we see another, less-longly-held "54" record fall this year?
Vlad obviously has the best shot at it - he's basically the baseball version of Auston Matthews (generational talent, just hitting his stride, surrounded with good players).

I was thinking Chapman maybe had a chance, getting out of Oakland, but in 2019, when he hit 36 HR, he hit 21 at Oakland and his OPS at home was WAY better than on the road (like 925 vs 770) - reverse Coors effect? OTOH, according to baseballsavant (not sure if this is the right place to look?) Oaklands HR park factors for RH hitters in 2019 and 2021 were ~0.81-0.83, and the Dome was like ~1.05-1.10. Does that mean 21 at home in Oakland would be 21 / 0.82 * 1.075 ~= 28 at the Dome? Adding 7 HR to 36 gets to 43, which is at least in the conversation.

Houston / Toronto seem to be basically tied in park factors, so I don't expect Springer to get much beyond his previous high of 39. Then again, if the Jays really crush it this year and consistently wear out opposing pitchers and get into the bullpen, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets to 45+..
Thoughts?

Haven't checked Fangraphs much this offseason, but I just noticed for the 1st time they have added Statcast Outs Above Average to their Advanced Fielding player pages.

Zimmer is a nice fit, and it makes the Grichuk trade look even worse.


Nice fit might be overselling it a bit, unless automatic outs is your thing (which to be fair, will speed the game up). The Grichuk trade does look feeble, but I think the “prize” there wasn’t Tapia but Pinto who could be a few more bags of baseballs than one deserved to get from such a trade.

Gibby used Navarro because he didn't have a lot of options. The Roster was 25. Dickie needed his own catcher who couldn't hit at all. 19 times in 2014 but no more than 10 times after that.
Adam Lind was a great DH back then except they kept starting him against lefties.

I don't know what you guys are looking at. Batting average?
ZIPS predicts better number for Collins than Katoh, Zimmer or even Espinal.
Tapia's overall numbers are a bit better but I think it's mostly because he can hit lefties.
It's all around an OPS of .680 to .700. Nothing great, but nothing terrible either.

Without the 3rd catcher and Kirk at DH, you can't pinch run for either late in the game, so what's the bench for then?
It's April after a short camp. Offensive results will depends on who gets hot, but you can predict who can play good defense and who cannot. 

I'm not defending Zimmer as any great shakes (although he is an upgrade on Tapia) but I'll just point out that making outs isn't really his problem - his .324 OBP last year (in 350 ABs) was above the MLB average and above Gurriel's (for example). It's too many k's and middling power, following contact, that limit his offensive profile.

It  didn't surprise me that .324 is a better OBP than our friend Gurriel (who I believe has allergies to whatever they make the bases out of) but I was skeptical that .324 was above average. And yet...Nigel is correct. In 2021 the average was .317, for example and .324 doesn't qualify as noticeably below average for a very long time indeed. I stand corrected.