Always exciting when rosters start to form. The AAA roster will tell us a LOT about what the Jays plan for this year with the 26th man and the 10 relievers to start. I suspect a few players will be quite sad to hear their names called out today as they head off to Buffalo.

FYI: Buffalo has a roster up - not sure if it is a final one, as it has 15 pitchers, 4 catchers (including Moreno), 5 infielders (including Bird), 5 outfielders (including Lukes). So 29 players. No idea what the AAA roster limit is but I suspect it is the same as the majors at 28 so someone has to shift to the majors or AA from that.

The names on Buffalo's roster have been there for weeks/months. For example there is no way Leonardo Jimenez starts in Buffalo, and I'd be very surprised if Hagen Danner skips New Hampshire entirely given his minimal experience pitching. Abdiel Mendoza also seems unlikely to play in Buffalo.

Thanks Waveburner - I was distracted and didn't dig in like I should've to check if the names made sense beyond a quick count and eye check for key names. Probably just a list of guys the Jays have who might be there, but obviously they won't go with 4 catchers for example.

For what its worth here are links to rosters for the rest...

• Buffalo AAA: 15 pitchers, 4 catchers, 5 infielders, 5 outfielders = 29 players
• New Hampshire AA: 17 pitchers, 4 catchers, 9 infielders, 3 outfielders = 33 players
• Vancouver A+: 19 pitchers, 1 catcher, 12 infielders, 3 outfielders = 35 players
• Dunedin A: 25! pitchers, 2 catchers, 5 infielders, 5 outfielders = 37 players

Clearly those are a bit screwed up. 1 catcher in Vancouver? 25 pitchers in Dunedin? 3 outfielders in each of AA/A+? Yeah, lots to shift. This suggests a total of 76 pitchers, 11 catchers, 31 infielders, 16 outfielders for 4 teams. Works out to an average of 19 pitchers, 2.75 catchers, 7.75 infielders, 4 outfielders per team. Obviously a few guys are going to be cut and see their pro baseball careers end in the next few days, while others will be at the training complex in Dunedin working out hoping for a chance to play if/when injuries happen.

I think there's a pretty decent chance that Gosuke Katoh makes the major league roster ahead of Bird. Another LH bat, he's had a decent spring himself, and he offers a lot more defensive utility.

Looking forward to the minor league rosters to be posted.

Gabe, Orvelis and Groshans are the main impact players so far. Lots of opportunity for the others.

I think there's a pretty decent chance that Gosuke Katoh makes the major league roster ahead of Bird. Another LH bat, he's had a decent spring himself, and he offers a lot more defensive utility.

Yeah, but...spring training. Looking into Katoh’s minor league career and we someone who takes a walk but strikes out twice as much as he walks. His line is not dissimilar to Espinal but he strikes out more. He is not going to provide much with the lumber.  He is listed as 2B/3B not SS so Espinal is still your main backup.

In any case, the Jays will take two of McGuire, Bird and Katoh. They all provide _something_ useful. If they take McGuire, which is likely, then Kirk is your primary DH, making Bird somewhat redundant. Then Katoh gets his chance.

I guess they aren't taking McGuire... he just got traded.

Traded for Collins (less D more O) who has the all important option left.

<br>yeah this seems like an old school "years of control" + roster management trade. Maybe someone sees something to be unlocked, but he seems like depth.

The Jays loves quality contact hitters with questionable contact ability. It has worked out with Hernandez, but I won't hold my breath with Collins.

I don't think Jays love Collins particularly but having a third catcher you can send to minors is huge.

The issue with having two catchers is that managers are reluctant to DH one of them. The Jays best lineup might be Jansen catching and Kirk DH but I doubt we see it much. Its not really much of a risk, catchers do get injured mid game but not that often. Even so, I doubt we see it much.

So, 2 of Bird and Katoh?

If they're going to keep Kirk on the bench and stick a Tapia in the lineup regularly that just means they are overrating the team's offense.

Playing Kirk regularly would be overrating his offense.
Kirk is not Stanton, JD Martinez or even Meadows.
They can play him if he gets hot, but we're looking at 30 games in 31 days, so maybe just split the usage 4 and 3 a week.

I think Collins just takes the roster spot McGuire was set to occupy. The advantage is that if the Jays do manage to acquire a big lefty bat to DH, Collins can be sent to AAA without losing him.

Kirk is still clearly the best option for regular DH at bats if the regulars are all in their normal positions. I don't really want Bird taking a good chunk of AB's from Kirk. Katoh is still my preference for the 4th bench spot if the Jays go that route as I have more confidence Montoyo can be convinced not to overplay Katoh compared to Bird.

If they plan to take both Bird and Katoh they would need to cut someone from the 40 man, but that's not a major issue, there's a few guys who could be released like Castro, Kay, etc.

Kirk's career xwOBA is .374, being roughly .290/.360/.500. You want him in the lineup almost every day, one way or another. 

I've seen it suggested by fans on other sites that the plan might be stop playing Collins as a catcher and send him to AAA as a 1B to see if the move to an easier defensive position allows his bat to reach full potential. He was a 10th overall draft pick in 2016 based almost entirely on his bat and power potential. This makes some sense to me, especially if the Jays truly were not planning to carry McGuire on the roster.

However that would still make me wonder about the major league roster. If they see Kirk like I do and want his bat in the lineup regularly, maybe someone like Deglan or Heineman stays on the roster as a pure defensive backup? Probably unlikely. It might just mean they want to see what Bird can do with an extended run at the beginning of the season, with Kirk mostly backing up Jansen.

We'll know in a few days, can't wait for the season to start.

Big question now is what do the Jays do next?  Be it soon or mid-season?  Possible trade targets could include guys who are free agents after 2022 who hit left or both - Andrew Benintendi (107 OPS+ lifetime, LF), Carlos Santana (116 OPS+ lifetime but just 79 last year, 1B/DH), Josh Bell (118 lifetime, 124 OPS+ last year - 1B/LF/RF).  Bell is obviously the best of that batch but would cost the most too I'm sure.  Of course, the old standby's are there too - Jose Ramirez (the rumors never die), Joey Votto, and many others.  Key is to be LH or switch, able to hit the crap out of the ball, and in a perfect world able to play the field somewhere other than 1B.

CWS usually fleece the Jays in trades. Hope not this time.

Zack Collins has never put things together in the majors, but he does have that tasty option. His minor league line OPS is 834 which is pretty fine..for a catcher. If as Waverburner's word on the street is correct and he moves to 1B, he'll need to do better, but not it's not a crazy idea.
His minor league line is rather interesting. He has a BA of 241 and an OBP…of 381. That’s nearly 1600PA so hardly a small sample size. We walks a fair bit and strikes out even more. What does that mean? I know, I don’t know. Maybe he’s a bit passive at the plate and major league pitchers exploit it?
The Jays roster is rounding into shape. Is it time to get excited yet?

Kirk doesn't have 200 ABs to his name.
He's never played every day. Some catchers have 500 ABs season in the minors but look elsewhere.
He has amazing ball to bat coordination and barrels the ball well, but he's a terrible runner.
He might be the perfect pitch hitter--when first base is empty.

Assuming he doesn't catch Ryu, he still need to catch the 4 other guys including Gaussman and Kikuchi.
That's a lot on his plate. He'll have to catch Gaussman on Saturday. Maybe Manoah on Monday.
They start with 30 games in 31 days, playing the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros over and over.
Montoyo will use that DH spot to rest people on day games and on travel games.

Speaking of minor leaguers:

https://twitter.com/hgomez27/status/1510933643472031756

Collins is a bit interesting as a bat. If he could raise his average from abysmal to bad, with his walks and power, he would have some value. His last minor league season, he was 24 YO in AAA with a 140 WRC+.

I think Jays plan to play Kirk a lot. Collins might even make the team and can backup 1B and even be used as a DH if you need (Unlike McGuire) which has a little value. My guess is Kirk will play about 75% of the time one way or another early on but if he hits well, he'll play more.

"Kirk doesn't have 200 ABs to his name.
He's never played every day. Some catchers have 500 ABs season in the minors but look elsewhere.
He has amazing ball to bat coordination and barrels the ball well, but he's a terrible runner.
He might be the perfect pitch hitter--when first base is empty.

Assuming he doesn't catch Ryu, he still need to catch the 4 other guys including Gaussman and Kikuchi.
That's a lot on his plate. He'll have to catch Gaussman on Saturday. Maybe Manoah on Monday.
They start with 30 games in 31 days, playing the Yankees, Red Sox and Astros over and over.
Montoyo will use that DH spot to rest people on day games and on travel games."


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.



If all this is true then our offense is not nearly as good as they think it is.

Buffalo's 1st game is tomorrow at 1 PM. I imagine that the team is no longer in Dunedin which means the roster has been decided.

As of last report there were still 40 players in the major league camp. With rosters to be set at 28, that leaves up to 12 players who will need to move to Buffalo. Some may move today but there will be a handful still with the Jays until their last game tomorrow. So Buffalo will likely not have a settled roster until Thursday or Friday.

Greg Bird has been released; presumably, Zack Collins makes the team which leaves one spot left for a non-roster invitee: either Lukes or Katoe are both deserving based on their spring performance, but perhaps there's another move or addition coming before Friday. I still think an 11-man bullpen to open the season is a possibility, especially with Pearson, Borucki, and Romano unlikely/questionable for opening weekend.

Not surprised about Bird. Jays are better off with more defensive versatility than a 1Bman who hasn't shown anything in years. Is Bird a better hitter than Collins is? Not sure. Is he better than Lukes or Katoah? They were pretty similar in AAA last year. I think Collins makes the team and Kirk probably DHs most days.

ok, so i'm actually kind of glad they released Bird because i would have been a bit annoyed if they thought he was anything but a fringe option.

trying to make sense of all the moves now and the one that makes the most sense to me, even if imo it's risky, is that they have lots and lots of confidence that Espinal can continue to provide at least league average offense while being very good defensively, which would actually make him a solid to good starting 2B. This would mean Biggio joins Teoscar/Gurriel as the starters filling the DH and corner OF slots.

The other part that would make this make sense is that they are clearly expecting Moreno to be up whenever that contract date thingy is - which given that he is already 22yrs old, and given that he's already crushed AA, i'm actually a big fan of. And in that case a guy like Collins would just be a placeholder for Moreno for a month.

Bird had a release clause which he exercised after the Jays chose not to use a 40man spot on him.

I'm fine with Bird not being on the team (apparently his decision, not the team's). In the absence of a legit LHB with a track record, the team is better off giving as many at bats to Kirk as possible, and a hybrid DH/CA role is probably going to be good for him and his body. Just have to hope the bat is legit over a full season, but I'm much more willing to bet on Kirk in that regard than Bird (who might have been this year's Panik if he made the team).

Nick Allgeyer is the opening day starter for the Bisons.

I think Collins probably makes the team, but I wouldn't assume so. He has an option, and if the club sees him more as a prospect than a backup, they might want him to get more playing time in Buffalo. Even if they want him with the club, Collins has also only had 14 PA this spring and struggled; Jays might want him to find a rhythm before moving up to Toronto. That all depends on Montoyo's willingness to play Kirk at DH without another catcher on the bench, but I would imagine that's a conversation the FO has already had with Montoyo.

"I'm fine with Bird not being on the team (apparently his decision, not the team's). "

No difference really. Jays said he wouldn't make team so it was their decision either way.

I don't really see the point of trading for Collins if you are going to keep three C's on the roster. His value over McGuire seems to lie mainly in the ability to send him down. I would assume that he's in Buffalo until needed.

unless it's about the ability to send him down in May, when Moreno comes up.

Wouldn't be surprised if the Jays sent Collins down for everyday AB's and kept one of Heineman or Deglan.

If that were the plan, I would have just kept McGuire until that time. Stuff happens to C's all the time. By May, one or both of Jansen and Kirk could be injured. Right now McGuire is the better player (who knows down the road) and the Jays are playing for right now. Long term planning around C's is close to pointless. Now, if the feeling is that the roster is better with only 2 C's and there's a better use for that roster spot then the trade makes all kinds of sense.

Coke to Mike

Bisons initial rotation is Allgeyer, Kay, Francis, Lawrence. #5 is TBD. I assume Shaun Anderson will fit in there too and maybe Nate Pearson. Thomas Hatch must be a bullpen guy now.

Bisons have 3 catchers on the roster, and none of them named Collins.

Arden Zwelling reports that Buffalo will start the season with Moreno, Deglan and Bec as catchers. Suggests Collins will be in Toronto. Also not sure what this means for Heineman.

"I don't like the McGuire for Collins trade for the simple reason that McGuire is, in my view, a significantly better player and if either Kirk or Jansen is hurt early, there will be a loss from it. My view of McGuire vs. Collins is shared by projection systems."

definitely agreed, Mike.....BUT, if Kirk or Jansen is hurt early, imothat just means that the other one will start more. In either situation, i'm guessing Collins remains a very strict backup with very few starts, and maybe some late game pinch hitting.

Buffalo announced a few more players on their roster. Samad Taylor will be on the roster, listed as an infielder.

Palacios and Warmoth are the only two outfielders mentioned.

Buffalo only announced 18 players on their roster announcement.

I don't like the Collins trade if they are keeping him on the Major League roster. If that is the plan they should have just kept McGuire. It only makes sense if they were planning on releasing McGuire anyways and saw some potential in Collins' bat if they move him off catcher.

Really hope Collins isn't on the Jays.

Surprised that Kay is the one who keeps a rotation spot ahead of Hatch, I would have flipped them around myself. Feel like Hatch has shown a little better command than Kay.

The Collins trade only makes sense to me if they send him down to AAA and turn him into a Mike Napoli/Evan Gattis. That's a batter that can fake a bit of catching in a pinch, but is in the lineup somewhere for his bat. He needs to play regularly to revive his hitting and it won't happen sitting on the end of the bench in Toronto.

"I don't like the Collins trade if they are keeping him on the Major League roster. If that is the plan they should have just kept McGuire. It only makes sense if they were planning on releasing McGuire anyways and saw some potential in Collins' bat if they move him off catcher."

They were going to release/trade McGuire anyway. He probably makes the team but once April ends, they wouldn't have kept him and that's without factoring in Moreno on the way. They needed the player option for their third catcher. makes zero sense to have a third catcher without one.

I agree that the Jays were either going to release McGuire for nothing or do a trade like this. I just don't think Collins is a viable catcher and doesn't belong on the Major League roster right now. So if they are keeping Collins on the roster, I think that's a mistake. I still believe he goes to Buffalo.

He's more suited to 1B/DH with the ability to catch in an emergency. But he needs time to work on hitting away from the catcher position.

Katoh has made the team. It seems that Collins and Lukes have a good chance as well.

Collins apparently makes the team too which means Kirk can DH most days. Happy for Katoh who has spent a decade in the minors. He hit as well as Bird did in the minors last year and played 1B, 2B, 3B, LF, and RF in AAA last year so he is extremely versatile.

Kirk 2021 splits
Vs RHP .211 .295 .368
vs LHP .314 .400 .588

First series, it's likely that the Rangers will start a lefty on Saturday when Kirk is catching, but if they do on any other day, by all means, DH him.

Some surprise names on Buffalo's roster right now, though it's probably just for the first few games while some of the Buffalo regulars are still in camp with the Jays for the final Spring games.

Can't imagine Rafael Lantigua, Nick Podkul or LJ Talley will still be there in a few days.

04/04/22 Toronto Blue Jays optioned C Zack Collins to Buffalo Bisons.

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/roster/transactions

Glad to hear Collins was sent to AAA, it was the only way the trade made real sense IMO. I've liked Lukes and he's performed very well this Spring, but at the same time a 5th OF when the Jays already have Biggio who can also play OF seems unnecessary. I really don't see an obvious choice for the 13th position player spot. But maybe he gets it for his ability to hit RHP.

Fangraphs looked at the trade...

In a previous era, that might have secured him a starting catching role. But our newfound understanding of the value of receiving has exposed Collins as one of the worst defenders at the position — one who was worth a ghastly 14 runs below average in only 506 innings of catching last year. It’s not an easy skill to show with a GIF or two, and that sounds like a ton of runs to surrender in such a short time. But that matches up with the eye test, and the Blue Jays will likely use Collins mainly as a first baseman and DH.

It will be interesting to see how the Jays use him in AAA.

They used McGuire a lot against lefties.  If you do that, he's going to put up a bad line.  Maybe the rotation will be something like Jansen catching 5 of every 7 games, Kirk catching the other 2 and DHing 3 or 4 with Springer DHing twice and the other 1 or 2 being split among the others.  Jansen is much faster than Kirk, so you don't need to pinch-run for him as much. 

Looking at Fangraphs description of Collins, seems like the perfect guy one would want on the roster if the plan for him is mainly as emergency catcher, with very little actual catching expected if the plan is to have Kirk DH on his non-catching days.

They used McGuire a lot against lefties.

I dunno. Is 9 games a lot?

Andrew Vasquez optioned to Buffalo. So if Pearson is starting the season either on the IL or Buffalo because of the illness, that leaves 11 relievers on the active roster. Either one more to send down, Borucki moves to the IR or this is it and they are running an 11 man pen to start the season.

Austin Meadows apparently traded to Detroit.

MLB Trade Rumors has that trade - Austin Meadows for  Isaac Paredes (65 OPS+ over 193 PA - top 100 prospect in 2019/20, 23 years old 3B/SS/2B, hit 272/361/424 in the minors over 499 games over 5 seasons) and a competitive balance round B pick.  Seems light to me, but Meadows was 'just' a 2.0 WAR guy last year mainly in LF.  Still, you'd think it'd take more than a guy who was the 94th and 100th best prospect a few years ago who hasn't shown anything yet in the majors.  Still, these are the Rays who rarely seem to lose a trade.

This seems extremely light to me, if that's all it took feel like the Jays could've made a play of Meadows. Paredes prob have less value than groshans, who I would offer straight up for Meadows who has all Star upside and above average regular floor. I don't get this deal at all for the Rays

" Still, these are the Rays who rarely seem to lose a trade."

You got that right. Paredes will probably blossom in Tampa and they'll find another good player with the draft pick. It must suck to be a Rays fan though and see a constant roster turnover. It's a wonder they didn't dump Keirmaier this offseason.

In other news, Chris Sale is going to be out two months with a rib injury. Anything that hurts the Sox is fine with me.

"This seems extremely light to me, if that's all it took feel like the Jays could've made a play of Meadows. Paredes prob have less value than groshans, who I would offer straight up for Meadows who has all Star upside and above average regular floor. I don't get this deal at all for the Rays"

Meadows is a bit meh. Definitely would help the Jays but figure Rays would want more from direct rival and last 1.5 years WRC+ of 113 and 88. His statcast numbers also aren't great. 32% in hard hit %. 48 percentile in avg exit velocity, etc...D isn't very good either. I think trade is pretty fair.

9 games is quite a lot, assuming there is a right handed catcher available.
Having McGuire face a lefty is comparable to sitting Guerrero to play Joe Panik.

Pearson diagnosed with mono. Guy can't catch a break.

Apparently Borucki will throw today, so he might still make the opening roster.

Thornton, Merryweather, and Saucedo have all made the team; Nate Pearson has mono and will be out for a while. That makes a bullpen of 10: Romano, Richards, Cimber, Mayza, Garcia, Phelps, Stripling, Thornton, Merryweather, Saucedo.

With a bench of Kirk, Katoh, Tapia, and Espinal, there's one roster spot left, and everyone on the 40-man roster is accounted for except Ryan Borucki. We'll probably find out shortly, but I see three options:

1. Keep Borucki; go with an 11-man bullpen (must be cut to 8 by May 2nd).

2. DFA Borucki; add a non-roster player (Lukes? Fowler? Someone from another team?)

3. Borucki goes to IL and "rehabs" in Buffalo for a few weeks; someone on the 40-man roster is added, which would likely be Zack Collins.

I think Option #3 is the most likely - I saw Zack Collins' name on the transaction wire, however, this was not reported by any Blue Jays beat writers - in fact, he was already in AAA Charlotte at the time of the trade and is reportedly headed to Dunedin today and could be available off the bench for today's game. If he was going to Buffalo, they wouldn't send him to Dunedin for a day... so if we so him today, I think he's coming North with the team.

Mono is infectious and also causes tiredness but I really don't know enough. Pearson probably goes on the 60 day IL. Also is probably a 1 inning reliever this year.

Buffalo's game is about to start.

Mono is infectious and also causes tiredness but I really don't know enough.

I hope Pearson wasn't kissing Fonzie's girlfriend. That's how Richie Cunningham got mono.

Josh Palacios homered in his first at-bat of the season...nice.

Vancouver announced their roster in the same way as Buffalo, a press release listing some of the names. In other words they announced parts of the roster.

Leo Jimenez, Miguel Hiraldo and Sem Robberse were expected. Adam Kloffenstein was not. He didn't have the best year last year and so he stays in high A. Chad Dallas, who did not pitch last year and Trent Palmer who pitched well, join Kloffenstein and Robberse in the rotation.

Otto Lopez starts the season on the IL.

Gabriel Moreno gets his first spring at-bat in the sixth inning of the last game of the spring.

One way to keep Pearson’s innings down I guess. Poor guy. Dr. Google claims it can be 2 or 3 months till an athlete is back to full health. And They’ll likely have to build him up in Buffalo eventually so who knows when he’ll arrive here.

Thornton to me is still scary. Hopefully just mop up in blow outs

Bisons win 3-2. Allgeyer 6 shutout innings, 1 single, 1 walk. Spraker struck out the side, with a walk in the 8th, Kyle Johnson worked around a double and hit batter to get the save.

full Vancouver roster

https://img.mlbstatic.com/milb-images/image/upload/milb/nn7jbzzrspf2zzuzcbro.pdf