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The new class is getting closer and closer now. Lets look back at Jays who have gotten votes for it.

First, as I mentioned in another thread, there aren't many ex-Jays in the HOF - Roberto Alomar (91-95), Rickey Henderson (half year in 1993), Dave Winfield (1992), Paul Molitor (1993-1995), Jack Morris (92/93), Phil Niekro (1987), Frank Thomas (2007/8), and of course Roy Halladay (1998-2009 - the only home grown Jay in the Hall...so far).

Digging into the records via the Lahman Database (and adding some more records for the past couple of years of Hall voting) I found the following...

Most overall votes: Jack Morris - 3338 over 15 BBWAA votes and 1 vets vote. 41.7% overall, lowest was a 19.6% from writers, best was his 87.5 from Vets who in their drunken haze thought Morris was more deserving than Alan Trammell (by 1 vote).
Most times on Ballot: Dave Parker - 17 times (that I know of) so on more ballots than games played as a Jay (13) - 10.3% to 24.5% but never over 30% from Vets.
Highest %: Rickey Henderson - 94.8% on his only time on ballot (should've been 100%), then Roberto Alomar cracking 90% on his 2nd ballot, Roy Halladay & Paul Molitor both got 85%, over 80% for Dave Winfield, Frank Thomas, and Phil Niekro.
Highest % without getting in: I think we all know that is Roger Clemens (61.6% last year, and probably closer but no cigar this year), over 50% for Scott Rolen and Omar Vizquel (both still kicking but Vizquel dropping drastically, sub 10% last I checked after his horrible actions were made public this past year).
Cracked 10%: Fred McGriff, Jeff Kent, Dave Parker, Mark Buehrle
More than 1 ballot: Dave Stewart, Joe Carter (BBWAA, Vets), Ron Fairly (go figure).
First Jays to be voted on: Bill Singer & Doug Rader in 1983 (0 votes each). In 1984 Ron Fairly got the first votes for an ex-Jay with 3. Al Oliver in 1991 was the first to crack 10 votes (19), and 1993 saw Phil Niekro become the first ex-Jay to get onto a second ballot, followed by making it on his 3rd.
Executives in the HOF: Tony Kubek 2009 (Ford Frick Award), Pat Gillick 2011 with 13 of 16 ballots. Bobby Cox with 16 of 16 votes in 2013. Tom Cheek 2013 (Ford Frick Award).

In all 77 different Jays have been on the ballot. 1+ votes but not listed yet are 35 players...
Al Leiter, Al Oliver, Armando Benitez, Benito Santiago, Carlos Delgado, Cecil Fielder, Chris Carpenter, Dave Righetti, Dave Stieb, David Cone, David Eckstein, David Segui, David Wells, Frank Viola, George Bell, Jeff Burroughs, Jimmy Key, John Candelaria, John Olerud, Jose Canseco, Juan Samuel, Lance Parrish, LaTroy Hawkins, Mike Flanagan, Pat Hentgen, Randy Myers, Rico Carty, Shawn Green, Todd Stottlemyre, Tom Candiotti, Tom Henke, Tony Fernandez, Tony Phillips, and Willie Horton

Those 35 had a max of 21 votes (Delgado & Cone), then Al Oliver with 19 was the only other one to get 10+. Lance Parrish got 9, Dave Stieb 7 (pathetic), Tom Henke, George Bell, and Jose Canseco 6 each. 5 for David Wells, 4 each for John Olerud, Tony Fernandez, Al Leiter, and Willie Horton. Jimmy Key just got 3.

Kind of interesting to see who got votes and how many. Doesn't say much about the writers that they put Morris on the edge of the Hall with the Vets putting him in while Stieb who was the better pitcher by any measure outside of wins and playoffs didn't get even 10 votes. In 20 years as the Veterans committee changes to a new generation I suspect guys like Stieb will be getting closer to getting in. Doubt he ever will get in, but by the standard of pitchers of the 80's he should be seriously considered at least. I figure Delgado and McGriff have better shots currently, especially McGriff (seen as the clean McGwire as pre-30's the two were close then McGwire went nuts on drugs while McGriff just kept playing his game with a normal age curve).

For completeness here are the 24 guys who got onto the ballot but no one gave them a pity vote:
A. J. Burnett, Bill Singer, Bob Bailor, Casey Blake, Dan Plesac, Danny Darwin, Darren Oliver, Devon White (you'd think a Jay writer would've given him a defense vote), Doug Rader, Doyle Alexander, John Mayberry, Matt Stairs, Mike Timlin, Orlando Hudson, Otis Nixon, Pete Vuckovich, Raul Mondesi, Roy Howell, Royce Clayton, Ruben Sierra, Ted Lilly, Troy Glaus, Vernon Wells, and Woody Williams.

This year has a few ex-Jays returning but no new ones. Clemens for his final shot at 78.9%, Jeff Kent gets one more after this @25.6%, Scott Rolen making up ground quickly @71.1%, Omar Vizquel dropping like a stone @10%, Mark Buehrle on his 2nd and probably final ballot @4.4%, plus Canadian Justin Morneau (never played here) on for his only time @1.1% (1 vote). Current votes via the HOF Tracker. Note: Clemens has picked up just 2 votes so far (lots of 'meh' to PED guys release their votes early), Rolen has gained 6, but Vizquel has dropped 28 (out of 90 cast so far - scary big drop for him, total of around 400 will be cast in the end). Canadian voters are bizarre. Steve Simmons: Andruw Jones, Curt Schilling, Gary Sheffield (dropped Vizquel from last year). Very weird one from Simmons given Sheffield is an admitted PED user and Simmons says he doesn't vote for PED guys. Jeff Blair: Bonds, Clemens, Ortiz, A-Rod, but dropped Man-Ram.

So any surprises on ex-Jays votes? I know I was a bit surprised here and there.

For Canadian born...

HOF: Fergie Jenkins (75.4% on his 3rd ballot) & Larry Walker (76.6% on his 10th and final ballot) were both voted in as everyone here should know.
Got votes: John Hiller (11 votes), George Selkirk (7 over 6 ballots - rules were different then), Eric Gagne (2), Terry Puhl (1), Larry McLean (1).
0 votes but on ballot: Matt Stairs & Jason Bay.
Just Justin Morneau on it this time for Can-Con (1 vote so far).

For Expos...

HOF: 9 - Andre Dawson, Gary Carter, Larry Walker, Lee Smith, Pedro Martinez, Randy Johnson, Tim Raines, Tony Perez, Vladimir Guerrero - most home grown (all but Perez, Smith, and Martinez)
HOF votes but not in (peak in brackets) more than 5%: Maury Wills (56.3%), Roy Face (18.9%), Pete Rose (9.5%), Graig Nettles (8.3%), Rusty Staub (7.9%)
HOF votes >10: Jeff Reardon, Al Oliver, Manny Mota, Andres Galarraga, Tim McCarver, Dennis Martinez, Dave McNally
HOF Votes >1: Mike Marshall, Moises Alou, John Wetteland, Ron Fairly, Felipe Alou, Marquis Grissom, Bill Lee, Dave Cash, Andre Thornton, Larry Parrish
HOF 1 Vote: Bill Campbell, Tim Wallach, John Candelaria, Bob Bailey, David Segui, Bill Gullickson, Chris Speier, Ron Darling, Ellis Valentine, Mike Jorgensen, Livan Hernandez, Mike Torrez, Jim Northrup
HOF 0 Votes but on ballot: Steve Rogers (surprised he didn't get any votes), Ted Lilly, Del Unser, Terry Crowley, Stan Bahnsen, Cliff Floyd, Jim Gosger, Todd Zeile, Bernie Allen, Tony Scott, Willie Montanez, Darold Knowles, Kirk Rueter, Orlando Cabrera, Otis Nixon, Matt Stairs, Mark Langston, Mark Grudzielanek, Manny Trillo, Woodie Fryman, Hubie Brooks, Rondell White, Grant Jackson, Ken Singleton, Jose Morales, Ross Grimsley, John Milner, John Boccabella, Mudcat Grant, Rudy May, Ron Hunt
First to get on ballot: Roy Face, got 23 votes in 1976.
First year with multiple Expos: 1978: Roy Face, Mudcat Grant, Maury Wills.
Most one one ballot: 10 in 1988 (Bill Lee, Del Unser, Grant Jackson, John Milner, Manny Mota, Maury Wills, Ross Grimsley, Roy Face, Stan Bahnsen, Willie Montanez)

Like with the Jays a few surprises on the low vote area. I always thought Staub would get more than 10% due to his popularity in NY and Montreal.

The current class will be announced on January 20th, but ballots have to be in by the 31st.

Posted by John Northey on Wednesday, December 29 2021 @ 10:38 PM EST.

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Glevin - Thursday, December 30 2021 @ 02:50 PM EST (#410215) #

The Ortiz voting bothers me. I think he's probably a hof guy but he's borderline and has his own PED suspicions. I mean, he pretty clearly had a worse career than McGriff for example but Boston versus Toronto/SD/etc... If Andruw or Rolen were Yankees, or Red Sox or Cubs, you don't think they'd be in the hall already?

John Northey - Thursday, December 30 2021 @ 03:22 PM EST (#410216) #

Glevin - interesting question.

Ortiz: 20 year career, 2472 hits, 541 HR, 1768 RBI 286/380/552, 10 time All-Star, 55.3 bWAR, 56.7 offensive WAR, 2.95 MVP award shares (best finish was 2nd, 5 times top 5). 25 black ink, 161 gray ink
Fred McGriff: 19 year career, 2490 hits, 493 HR, 1550 RBI, 284/377/509, 5 time All-Star, 1.41 MVP shares (best finish 4th, his only time in the top 5), 52.6 bWAR, 56.2 offensive WAR
Carlos Delgado: 17 year career, 2038 hits, 473 HR, 1512 RBI, 280/383/546, 2 time All-Star (very surprised that is all), 1.56 MVP shares (best a 2nd place, twice top 5) 44.4 bWAR, 50.9 offensive WAR.
John Olerud: 17 year career, 2239 hits, 255 HR, 1230 RBI 295/398/465, 2 time All-Star, 0.59 MVP share (3rd in 1993, 12 in 1998), 58.2 bWAR, 48.6 offensive WAR.

I added Delgado & Olerud so we have the 3 big Jays. Surprise, surprise Olerud was the least respected in his career but had the most value by WAR thanks to strong defense (2 gold gloves) vs stone gloves by the others. By offensive WAR (the only measure that really matters for the first 3) you get Ortiz slightly ahead of McGriff (under 1 WAR spread) and Delgado a bit back - always felt Delgado needed a few more years to make it, he was hitting well when his career ended (143 OPS+ his final season) - his 3rd season was his last sub 100 for OPS+ at age 23 (99 PA). Hip injuries ended his career a couple years early or he'd have been in I suspect.

In the end I'd say all of these 4 are short of HOF quality. Any or all meet the minimum standards the hall has shown but only Ortiz is likely to get in, with McGriff having a shot with future vet committees if old buddies of his are on the panel (all of these guys have far, far, far better cases than Harold Baines, or Jim Rice for that matter).

Thomas - Thursday, December 30 2021 @ 10:16 PM EST (#410217) #

Vizquel has dropped 28 (out of 90 cast so far - scary big drop for him, total of around 400 will be cast in the end)

Good.

whiterasta80 - Saturday, January 01 2022 @ 01:05 PM EST (#410229) #

Vizquel was, in my opinion, far off the standard of the HOF anyway, so this is a moot point. However my personal opinion is that we shouldn't keep people out of the HOF based on character issues, that ship has sailed. Instead we should enshrine their terrible behavior on the plaque.

Roger Clemens:
"One of the games most celebrated strikeout pitchers. Was the first pitcher to record 20 strikeouts in a single game. Multiple time Cy Young Award Winner and statutory rapist who tragically contributed to the suicide of Mindy McCready.

whiterasta80 - Saturday, January 01 2022 @ 01:17 PM EST (#410230) #

Cap Anson
"A celebrated innovator of 19th century baseball. Innovation included excluding superior black players through a gentleman's agreement so as not to violate the US constitution.

The other owners should have just taken his gate receipts like they threatened for Toledo 4 years earlier."

whiterasta80 - Saturday, January 01 2022 @ 01:22 PM EST (#410231) #

David Ortiz

"Largely overrated slugger who almost certainly took PEDs. Once, following Jose Reyes' arrest for domestic abuse stated that "these are good guys, I feel bad for them""

John Northey - Saturday, January 01 2022 @ 05:59 PM EST (#410232) #

Yeah, the morals of the writers are very much in question imo. A-OK with guys like Ortiz who are sympathetic to rapists, but 100% against guys who took PEDs after the writers celebrated known PED users (McGwire in 1998). Also how they put in with no questions guys like Kirby Puckett who was as painfully obvious a PED user as there ever was. 0 HR in a full season, 2 years later over 30. Bragged about his offseason workouts, but not one question iirc on PED use ever. Voted in super-quick too (82% on first ballot, then not long after found out that he beat his wife and was not the good guy his rep said he was).

AWeb - Saturday, January 01 2022 @ 09:53 PM EST (#410234) #

Like any election, the voters are individuals and we shouldn't read any motives into their collective vote totals. The Hall showed moral cowardice when they refused to give ANY specific guidance to the bbwaa, and unsurprisingly the writers have ended up all over the place, and no clear theme has emerged.

Are off-field behaviours, criminal and moral, supposed to matter? SHRUG! Are PEDs or suspected PEDs supposed to matter? SHRUG! Any distinction between pre and post testing, or extra punishments for those caught? SHRUG!

John Northey - Sunday, January 02 2022 @ 12:29 AM EST (#410235) #

Agreed AWeb, but the writers themselves could've handed out guidelines for their members to follow too. I think the controversy helps sell more clicks for all of them which they need badly at this point.

If I was a real voter I'd probably view pre-2004 PED use as a 'so what, the rules were go nuts, so if you didn't you were playing with your hands behind your back', and from 2004 on if you got a penalty for it I'd use that as part of the 'if you are borderline - out, if not then it depends on the rest of your resume'. IE: I'd debate A-Rod, Manny, Sheffield, and others for a long time each. A-Rod I'd probably vote for as he was so far past the line it wasn't funny (ala Clemens & Bonds) despite his later use of PEDs. Manny probably not due to his repeated use (I mean, c'mon, once I can work with but caught at least 3 times?). Guys like Ortiz I'd not use it as a factor, but wouldn't vote for Ortiz regardless (as a DH you gotta have a TON of hitting imo and he was great, but not quite Edgar Martinez level).

For comparison: Edgar - late start (first full season at 27), 66.9 oWAR, 147 OPS+, playoff heroics as well (forgotten due to being in Seattle) 873 OPS in playoffs. 8674 PA 500.8 offense from Fangraphs
Ortiz - stable regular (100+ games a year) at 26, but had a few before that. 141 OPS+ lifetime, 56.7 oWAR 947 OPS in playoffs. 10091 PA, 408 offense from Fangraphs

So despite more PA (3 years worth) by both BR and Fangraphs Ortiz was the lesser hitter by a very visible amount. Yet Martinez needed all 10 years to get in while Ortiz might slide in his first. Purely a Red Sox phenomenon (or Yankee) as writers pay 1000x more attention to those 2 teams than any other it seems. Ick. And that isn't factoring in that Edgar was a 3B for a few years too (564 games) vs Ortiz getting a small handful of games at 1B (278) in his career.

Thomas - Sunday, January 02 2022 @ 09:28 AM EST (#410236) #

I do think there's a distinction between a) present day and historical moral standards/character issues - I don't think there's anything wrong with keeping people out for those reasons while also acknowledging voters in the 1950s may have assessed those same issues differently and b) behaviour that is know before the fact vs. behaviour discovered after the fact.

While we disagree on the above point, you made an excellent point about Mindy McCreary. Sadly, her story has not gotten the recognition it deserves, in my opinion, with respect to what it says about Clemens, when compared to his PED use.

In some ways, I do find the lack of direction from the Hall; the variety of opinions; the inconsistencies of certain voters, not to mention the aggravating ballots of a lot of writers, to be somewhat reflective of the world we live in. And in that sense, letting voters work it out amongst themselves seems to be the closest approximation to what happens in every day life.

I also am skeptical that guidelines from the Hall would work in the way we might hope, since there's no method of screening ballots. As much as the Hall may say that voters should or should not consider certain things, voters may disregard them on a conscious or subconscious level and there's no requirement for them to explain their ballot.

Of course, that could be changed and there could be a method of taking someone's ballot away, but that's a whole different kettle of fish. However, if I was dictator for a day, there's a whole bunch of voters I think should not have ballots anymore. But, that's just my opinion.

cascando - Sunday, January 02 2022 @ 05:53 PM EST (#410237) #

I very much enjoyed whiterasta�s descriptions.

I have mixed feelings on the weight that should be given to a person�s exploits off the field in deciding whether they merit a hall of fame vote.

Clemens and Bonds are two of the greatest baseball players ever. There is no debating that. Is the baseball hall of fame a sort of reward for people who were great at baseball, and also not terrible people? If you could give their skills to better human beings, their career WAR might be lower, but they would still be among the all time greats.

But Clemens and Bonds are two incredibly flawed people and it seems that their brashness/fecklessness in making those flaws apparent to everyone makes it difficult to check the box beside their name for the (mostly also very flawed) people responsible for voting for the HOF. It is a genuine dilemma because people like this may not be deserving of any further fame or adulation. On the other hand, by refusing to vote for obvious all time greats, you imbue a certain infamy.

I�m almost certain that many HOF are worse than both of them, but were either better at hiding it or lived in a time where others deliberately hid it for them.

ayjackson - Monday, January 03 2022 @ 08:52 AM EST (#410238) #

i think we need a thread dedicated to proposals for plaques for the immoral HOFers.

mathesond - Monday, January 03 2022 @ 12:52 PM EST (#410239) #

"i think we need a thread dedicated to proposals for plaques for the immoral HOFers."

So, all of them, then?

Glevin - Monday, January 03 2022 @ 02:06 PM EST (#410241) #

For me, the PED line for HoF is "would they have gone into the HoF without PED use." For someone like Sammy Sosa, I think the answer is clearly "no". For guys like Bonds and Clemens, the answer is very clearly "yes".

One interesting thought about Ortiz. Since Ortiz had to play DH, Manny had to play LF. Manny was an absolutely brutal fielder who shouldn't have been in the field whose defensive value as LF was way worse than Ortiz as a DH.

John Northey - Monday, January 03 2022 @ 04:06 PM EST (#410242) #

A reason I require crazy high offense from a DH. A 120 OPS+? Meh. 140+ then I think you can be a full-time DH. Adam Lind at his best was a 140 OPS+ guy, but just 112 lifetime, thus why his career was shorter then one would expect given his last 5 seasons were a 122 OPS+ overall. If you can't play the field you limit the teams options drastically. Cecil Fielder was like that - as a Jay he had a couple of years in the 130's but despite that strong bat they still sold him to Japan as he just couldn't be in the field enough to be worth keeping (still blown away that Jimy Williams tried him at 2B and 3B).

That is what will make it hard for Kirk. He has a solid bat, but he needs to be a great bat if he isn't catching. A 114 OPS+ won't cut it.

Ortiz had a 141 OPS+ lifetime - so he was good enough to be a full-time DH. But is that enough for a HOF DH? IMO no - but he is close enough I won't complain. Edgar Martinez was 147, Frank Thomas 156, Jim Rice 126 (should've been a DH but played in LF and not imo a HOFer), Harold Baines 121 (doesn't remotely belong in the HOF).

Dr B - Monday, January 03 2022 @ 04:10 PM EST (#410243) #

For me, the PED line for HoF is "would they have gone into the HoF without PED use.

JUK over at BluebirdBanter put it nicely and I quote:

�When Ben Johnson got caught they didn�t sit and say �I think he would have got bronze if he hadn�t used, let�s give him that�.�

Nigel - Monday, January 03 2022 @ 05:27 PM EST (#410244) #

There�s definitely some intellectual appeal to that argument and it�s a view I�ve had from time to time. My main problem with it is that I have no clue when a player did or did not start using PEDs and my long held belief is that in most cases it was earlier than acknowledged or believed. People seem to pick a year in the early 90s as their reference point for the start of rampant use but I think the mid to late 80s A�s were chock full of users and I don�t think they were remotely the only ones. So, what part of Clemens career was �clean� upon which I can then extrapolate? No clue. I�m certainly do not believe the individual player�s �admissions� of the time of commencement.

John Northey - Monday, January 03 2022 @ 06:48 PM EST (#410245) #

Bonds is one case where it was clear - 1998 according to the book. He was royally passed over the home run chase between Sosa and McGwire as everyone knew McGuire was on PEDs - they were found in his locker. He said something about how he was at the point of screw it. Then he went whole hog and shattered records. Now others have questions and I remember people chanting steroids at Canseco in the 80s. Lots of people did it. So how to deal with it? I feel if caught post 2003 then feel free to condemn, but Clemens, Bonds, and others played by the rules (or lack thereof) of their day.

rpriske - Tuesday, January 04 2022 @ 10:52 AM EST (#410248) #

Ortiz will likely be the only one voted in, despite the fact that there are at least eleven more deserving players onto ballot.

Nigel - Tuesday, January 04 2022 @ 12:50 PM EST (#410251) #

John - 1998 may well have been the year. However, if you look at changes in his body shape and a huge jump in power it could well have been 1992. Who know? That's really my problem with this thought process.

Mike Green - Tuesday, January 04 2022 @ 02:09 PM EST (#410252) #

FWIW, BBRef has Bonds' WAR totals 1989-92 as 8.0, 9.7, 8.0 and 9.0. They have him as a fabulous defender early in his career. Fangraphs' metrics are pretty comparable. Even at his bulked-up size from age 37-41, UZR has him as plus defender and DRS as an average one. He went 30-3 stealing bases from age 37 until the end of his career.

Nigel - Tuesday, January 04 2022 @ 02:27 PM EST (#410253) #

Mike, if there is one player that I am confident was a HOF'er without any enhancements its Bonds. My only point was that he went through a pretty pronounced physical change and spike in power in 92 and then again in 98. Maybe the first was natural and the second wasn't? Who knows. What happened with Bonds actually makes me a little sad - in the sense that he represents (for me) the poster child for my cognitive dissonance in relation to baseball statistics and their historical perspective.

Mike Green - Tuesday, January 04 2022 @ 04:33 PM EST (#410258) #

I hadn't noticed the physical change in 1992 at the time, but if you look at the 1992 and 1993 baseball cards (with images from the previous seasons), it is there. His 1992 season wasn't a whole lot different from his 1990 one. You're absolutely right, Nigel, that it's just sad.

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, January 05 2022 @ 08:10 AM EST (#410263) #

A few more brutally honest plaques

Barry Bonds

A true 6-tool talent. Was often lumped together with Roger Clemens but his crimes started and ended with PEDs. Very clearly a "Peak Performance" HOF case who extended his career by pumping his body full of chemicals I wouldn't want in sewer rats.

If you want an actual forecast of his career then look at Griffey Jr and then discount the defense.

Curt Schilling

Legendary playoff performer and collector of Nazi memorabilia. Post career has at one point or another ostracized 90% of baseball fans through vitriolic comments. If you see him in public, call it the ketchup sock.

Mariano Rivera

The greatest closer of all time. Managed to last almost 2 decades in the most toxic media market this side of London UK without incident. Post career it's become clear that he probably shouldn't have been allowed to wear the #42.

Jim Rice
How the F did this happen?

Bill Mazeroski

How the F did this happen? Joe Carter we are sorry.

Harold Baines
How the F did THIS happen? You know what, go home, visit baseball reference and just sort by WAR...

Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, January 05 2022 @ 10:02 AM EST (#410265) #

Performance-enhancing drugs have certainly skewed the record book. Yet, the worse problems were always alcohol, sleeping pills, painkillers, and cocaine.

During that era, which sluggers were clean? Frank Thomas, Ken Griffey Jr., Albert Belle, Jim Thome, Edgar Mart�nez...?

Pitchers on the juice? It rarely comes to mind, besides Clemens.

whiterasta80 - Wednesday, January 05 2022 @ 05:35 PM EST (#410270) #

Kevin brown maybe? Andy pettite definitely. Mussina just because of association?

Later on jennry meija and Edison volquez both did so. Only know because of fantasy...

John Northey - Friday, January 14 2022 @ 06:17 PM EST (#410421) #

Of note: Melky Cabrera officially retired today - didn't play in 2020 or 2021. Ends with just shy of 2000 hits. The Jays used their bonus pick (lost him to free agency after 2014) to sign Jon Harris - pitched in AA/AAA last year at age 27 so they still have something from his time there. Love how guys lost via free agency can still be producing potential value years later.

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