For MLB, previously with just 1 wild card team, the old rule prevented a 1st-round matchup between division rivals. Now with 2 wild card entries, that rule was abandoned. I would not re-establish that format. Rather, I suggest all the teams should be re-seeded after the Wild Card Game. (San Francisco playing the Dodgers really should have been the NLCS. Moreover, Atlanta does not deserve home-field advantage.)
Speaking of the Buds, it's annoying seeing Kaberle in Montreal red on the Leafs HR franchise page. I would never have guessed the franchise's #1 player by hockey WAR.
Minor leaguers this season received some paltry pay increases. But the longstanding issues with housing were even worse than in past seasons for many. Because of the pandemic, host families weren't taking them in, like Danny Jansen's parents did with Adam Jones years ago.
The Angels may or may not have been the worst, but they were called out for the despicable treatment of their minor leaguers.
https://www.si.com/mlb/2021/07/24/angels-minor-league-players-critical-ownership-living-conditions-mental-health
Only one team provided fully furnished housing to their minor league players this year - the Houston Astros.
This format would make there be more to play for between the top and 2nd division winner as well as between the 2nd and 3rd division winner, and would also add extra interest. Teams could also have added motivation from being picked/not being picked so overall I think it is a better format, but also creates interesting talking points in both the end of season and start of playoffs.
Funny, I am the exact opposite. I like the players, like the team, but still have a sour tase after seeing AA get fired/put on notice then when he had nothing to lose go all in.
I especially like Freddie Freeman and would move Teoscar for pitching if it meant signing Freeman. 1% chance this happens?
Funny, that’s not how I remember it. I always thought that AA went “all in” because he realized that the team was much better than its record suggested and that the division that year was weak and there for the taking.
Shapiro was hired on Aug 31, so by then AA had already made his decisions (and the team was in first place, I believe.) I thought Shapiro told AA after he started that he didn’t approve of the prospect trades and that’s part of what led to a falling out. That, and Shapiro’s pretty tactless comments during his introductory interview about how glad he was that he was going to be more involved in baseball ops.
Water under the bridge and it doesn’t really matter anymore who the villain is. But I’ll be cheering for AA. He was always a very passionate, hard working, creative executive. I’m glad to see him continue to succeed.
Job Mccown has covered this and he’s very close with Beeston. Alex and Beeston according to him we’re extremely upset to not having their contracts renewed as the GM and President since they stuck to Rogers parameters up to that point.
Either way, AA was and is a class act.
IMHO we have been pretty lucky as AA was a well above average GM and Shapiro/Atkins are also a well above average GM. They could always do better, and there will always be some mistakes or missed opportunities, but we could do a lot worse.
I wonder if any of these characters can perform the classic turn from villain to babyface...
Joe West, my hero, is set to retire after the playoffs. One last hurrah brouhaha.
AA didn't go for it in 2015. He went for it in 2013 and the result was not good.
A lot of the moves in 2015 were just to try and recover from 2013.
Atlanta was not fit to hold the All-Star game.
It would be quite awkward to have a world series there.
Also, the way they played in the interleague this year, the AL would probably win in 4.
As per usual, I got exhausted making it through the early innings. The announcer seemed to be subtlely digging at how long the game was taking, which was kind of satisfying but didn't make the game go faster...
AA was not a development guy with the Jays and he did sell the farm for the 2015 year; that many of the Jays players traded never panned out is just a further reflection of the development challenges in the organization at that time. I have no issue with his 2015 "go for it" year as he had an aging team with a limited time to leverage the two incredible flukes of his tenure- EE and JB. It's wise to make good on your luck.
Where AA particularly shines is in deal making, in terms of both innovation and tenacity. The JD trade of course was one for the ages, and demonstrates in spades his doggedness in getting deals done. In Atlanta, he has inherited an excellent young team with a good farm system- built by the prior front office- so he has focused his efforts on what he does well; for example, he made a big difference again this year at the trade deadline for what was at the time, a middling team.
The current FO on the other hand is very development oriented, and has done a very good job of building a young competitive team and a decent farm system from the ashes of 2016. It's a pleasure to see good young players on the field that were actually developed within the system, which is something we hadn't seen for years. I am sure Baltimore, which cratered at a similar time, would kill to have this FO.
While it's frustrating to see them miss the playoffs, this is a young team that won 91 games (4 more than Atlanta) in a division where 4 of the 5 teams were playoff level. We can all identify 50+ "bad bounces"- eg Springer hitting the wall- that were the difference between playoffs and golf. The FO gave them a good chance to win, and that's all you can ask for.
The FO has now shown it's willingness to also sign and spend. It will be interesting to see how well they can balance that with maintaining a strong farm system, and if they can make solid deals with the same capability as AA.
IMO this FO does show promise.
The Berrios trade is their big trade. It will take time to see if it is good. Good meaning Berrios's performance. The 2 prospects given up don't matter much to me. Smaller trades got us Grichuk and Hernandez. The pitching acquisitions at the 2020 and 2021 trade deadline improved the team.
In 6 drafts so far we have had a few successes. Bo and Manoah were exceptional.
5 years of Int'l signings have mainly produced hopefuls. 2016 was budget restricted due to signing Vlad. Also these players are only 16 years old so they need to be given time IMO. A Kirk signed Sept 2016. 1st season to play 2018 so he developed very fast.
Gurriel was a good signing.
They know how they must manage the payroll budget.
So far quite good it seems.
Job Mccown has covered this and he’s very close with Beeston. Alex and Beeston according to him we’re extremely upset to not having their contracts renewed as the GM and President since they stuck to Rogers parameters up to that point.
And of course, none of this is any more than anecdotal evidence and inference.
I found this position hard to support when it emerged 6 years ago. In this era of misinformation and division, I find it problematic. We are supposed to be information-savvy here at the Box.
This has nothing to do with my opinions of AA. Dont present as fact what you cant possibly know to be fact.
2011, zero playoffs hope, but finished 81-81.
2012, some hopes, but finished 73-89. The carefully chosen manager bolted to the rival team.
2013, go all in, favorite to win the division but name Gibbons as manager and finished dead last.
2014, back to zero hope. Bautista tried to raise money to sign a 5th starting pitcher. 83-79
2015, some hopes, under .500 at the deadline, but go in then and finish first but only 93 wins.
I saw some of the middle part of the game last night, including Altuve's game-tying home run in the sixth inning. I went to bed shortly after as it was midnight here on the east coast and I value my sleep more than caring who won. I don't know why the playoff games start so late.
Any story that has Beeston being extremely upset that he wasn’t having his contract renewed after 2015 is suspect to say the least.
When we say we don’t personally like AA, it goes without saying that none of us have met him and connected with him on a personal level. The expression refers to his work as a GM, not a friend. Shouldn’t be odd when you look at the criticism that way.
Maybe I’m in the minority, but I don’t look at Atlanta as a team Alex built and say “wow look at all those post season trips.” He had a top farm system with some of the best young talent in the game handed to him. He hasn’t done a bad job but certainly I still haven’t seen him do a few things that most GMs can do:
1) sign big time free agents to big contracts
2) construct a top bullpen
3) stop signing reclamation projects
4) draft and develop A players (stars to above average)
I’ve seen Atkins hit two of these out of the park already and expect the other two items on this list to be achieved after this off season.
The best thing about Alex was his deal making in trades, and since he has joined the Braves, he has been outclassed by Atkins in this department.
Accurate in my opinion to say they are both good GMs. Alex is just a little too safe for me, but I really like the team and players he has inherited.
Most GM's do sign reclamation project. Some extremely successfully like the Jays with Ray, Dodgers with guys like Turner and Muncy, and the Giants with almost half their team. In fact, I'd argue AA has been very much on the low side of reclamation project signings in Atlanta.
Freeman will be 32 next year as a FA. I don't think AA will give him another long term deal.
Back to Atlanta. Milwaukee went down very easily. Morton, Fried and Anderson all did well in the 1 game they pitched. Fried against LAD was good. SSS means no proof of an ace yet.
2022 April-May Reprisal List:
1. TB - Kevin Kiermaier** (re: Sep 20)
2. BOS - Alex Verdugo* (re: Aug 6)
3. BAL - Ryan Mountcastle* (re: June 19, Sep 10)
4. OAK - Josh Harrison (re: misc.)
5. SEA - TBD
6. NYY - TBD
7. HOU - TBD
**Encore
*Arbitrary player selection
I don't know how much "credit" AA deserves for that. He offered two players from poor backgrounds, who might value financial security* in a way that is very different from a North American-born player (even one who grew up in relative poverty), and both players were very poorly served by their agents in this scenario.
There have been numerous articles written about how extremely poor the odds were that Acuna and Albies would have earned less than their contract value by going year-to-year. Those contracts were ridiculous, particularly Albies which Rosenthal tweeted at the time was probably the worst contract in baseball history from a player's perspective. After a 4.1 WAR season (BR), he signed the next 7 years away for $35 million and gave the Braves two further club options at $7 million.
AA has a duty to do the best he can for the Braves, but the degree to which he ripped off those two players (there's a team-friendly extension, but these contracts are in another dimension) almost makes me like him less. There were also rumours that one of or both of Acuna and Albies were going to drop their agents, so their agents wanted them to sign the extensions while they would still receive the commission. If AA knew that and took advantage of that, it may be smart business from a financial standpoint, but I don't have to like it or him for doing it.
Anyhow, I'll be cheering for the Braves if they make the World Series, but until then I'm cheering for L.A. The less I have to hear of that chop, the better.
In short, I cry no tears for guys who sign early and get guaranteed tens of millions vs hundreds of million if they waited. A GM who gets those on the dotted line is doing what is best for his team.
You have to be careful about viewing these contracts paternalistically. These are bargains made by adults with professional advisors. No one would ever suggest that Bautista was anything but a smart guy. He made a deal for his own reasons. Every human values financial security, risk and value maximization (which in every walk of life are almost always working against each other) differently. I never looked at those Toronto deals and thought that the Jays had exploited anyone. Choices made and lived with. It could have gone differently for the Jays too. That’s just me though.
Agents deserve more criticism here than AA, but point still stands.
You can't compare a highly-rate prospect hitting the ground running in the majors with players with very checkered histories about to turn 30.
Bautista provided the Jays with excess value and I think it was a very smart risk for them to take due to the fact a mid-market team needs excess value in some of its contracts and there were logical reasons to believe Bautista's turn-around was real, but it was a risk.
Jose Bautista's OPS+ from his age 25-29 seasons: 94, 96, 91, 99, 164. Ozzie Albies's OPS in his age 20 and 21 seasons, before signing his contract: 110 and 101. To sign a 21-year-old already contributing above-average offensive production is not the same as a 29-year-old Rule 5 draft pick. Albies put up 5.4 WAR before his 22nd birthday. Bautista didn't have a positive WAR in his age 25, 26 or 27 seasons.
You're free not to find those contracts distasteful, but they're not comparable from a negotiating standpoint to Bautista and Encarnacion.
AA was known in Toronto for making trades that nobody saw coming.
Two completely different guys, it seems.
With no AL teams left worth cheering for and the last remaining racist team iconography repping the NL (thank you Cleveland), just... no.
After the Dodgers, I suppose I would cheer for the Red Sox out of the other three teams, but not really. Not enough to care about the result.
Ultimately, both Acuna and Albies are going to be paid millions and I'm sure they are fine with it, but it was never a good optic for anyone involved, IMO.
I keep wondering about Pearson recovering from his sports hernia over the off season. If healthy he can pitch well. A power starting pitcher with good enough control.
I thought Longoria signed his first six-year deal when he was still in the minors, but Wikipedia says he signed it after being a major leaguer for six days.
Longoria's deal is a little bit different than Acuna Jr and Albies in that he was still just a superstar prospect who hadn't proven it in the majors yet.
Like the Jon Singleton contract for 10 million for Houston in 2014 for 420 PAs of .620 OPS ball, there's certainly at least some argument for taking the millions on the table if offered before getting called up rather than betting on yourself for the first 3 years in the MLB making minimum salary.
Also, per Heyman, Brian Butterfield has been let go by the Angels.
You shouldn't just measure in $EV, you should measure in utility-EV. I.e., for Acuna $200M is likely not truly worth double $100M, and risking a little of the top for a guaranteed thing makes sense. A career impacting injury (on or off the field) could mean that he'd never make $10M, so locking up $100M should be more than enough. Same thing for Albies who lock up $35M. Even with taxes, agents, etc. $35M is set for life money living in the US, let alone living in a cheaper cost of living area.
Unless someone like an agency or the players association were willing to offer the players insurance (of the sort don't sign the deal with the Braves, we'll guarantee you that amount of money no matter what for a cost of half the amount more that you'll make on year-to-year negotiations over the lifetime of that contract), then from an individual's POV, of course you lock up the set for life money. They both can go for an even larger FA contract at 31 (if not sooner if options aren't picked up), but at that point they'll already be set for life even if they can't get a FA contract signed.
So, again, I don't think this is a fair knock against either AA or the player's agents. This is just the way that baseball is structured. Of course we'd be happy if the Jays singed a similar deal with Vlad or Bo, but as noted above they may already have the security from their parent's baseball careers, so they may be happy to note that if their career ended tomorrow they'd still likely be set. Dante Bichette earned $42.8 M in his career and Vlad Guerrero $125.5 M in his career. On the other hand, from a friendly family rivalry, make sure the next generation is good, perhaps they'd like a contract that guarantees them a higher salary than their fathers made?
From the minor league thread, last Thursday......
Gabriel Moreno is still in Dunedin recovering from his thumb injury. He is still headed for the AFL but just isn't there yet.
Extremely hard disagree.
Paul put it perfectly, there is no point having an agent if he isn't going to advise against taking that deal.
There are a lot of articles out there that show that, with his record of success in the majors over more than 600 at-bats at his age and playing plus defence at a premium defensive position, in his worst-case scenario he would have made the same amount as his contract amount. The only conceivable scenario where he might not have was a career-ending injury, but how often does that happen to a 21-year-old position player? Tony Conigliaro and that's about it (and he played several more season in the majors - he was just never the same player).
For comparison sake, Jurickson Profar earned $3,000,000 in 2019. This was his fifth big league season. Going into that season, Profar had 2 career WAR. In 2021, Albies earned $3,600,000 in his fourth big league season. Going into that season where he earned marginally more than Profar, Albies had compiled 11 WAR (it would be over 12 if his 2020 season was pro-rated over 162 games).
Albies didn't receive a lump sum signing bonus in order to get his money faster. He didn't get player options to mitigate his risk in case his performance dropped off in his early 30's. The team options aren't for a really high salary, which would either get him to free agency quicker or get him a more significant payment to buy out his late 20s (see the Scott Kingery deal, for example). He gave the Braves all of the upside in every single way in that contract.
This was a case of a number of factors converging to create the worst contract in recent baseball history and two of those are negligence and self-interest by his agency and predatory behaviour by the Braves.
A map of where MLB teams are...
As you can see a 6 team division of Baltimore/Washington/Philly/NYY/NYM/Boston makes a ton of sense (could drive from Boston to Washington's parks in just over 7 hours according to Google Maps).
The Jays are in a gaggle of teams in the central - closest to Detroit, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati. Add a new team in Montreal and you have a nice division.
Another could be ChiSox-Cubs-Brewers-Twins-Royals-Cardinals, all very close to the Jays division.
Then comes a west coast one of Seattle-Oakland-SF-LAD-LAA-SD-Arizona (7 teams, ick)
Then comes Colorado-Texas-Houston-Atlanta-Rays-Marlins. Add in an expansion team for Charlotte NC or Nashville TN to give another 7 team division.
South and West would play each other as a league, the 2 centrals play each other, and the East (aka nuclear) division plays everyone (as everyone wants the Yankees- Red Sox-Mets as visitors to sell tickets). I suspect divisions would need to be larger (8 teams) or some other adjustment needed but dang does 6-7 teams per work well geographically if you can live with 5 divisions. Of course, move Oakland to LV (no change) and Tampa to Montreal and things shift. Then expansion goes to Portland, Oregon (shifting Arizona to the south division) most likely or to Austin Texas (no division issues), San Antonio Texas (same), or El Paso Texas. Those appear to be the biggest expansion potentials. Nothing on that front will happen until 2028 when Tampa can move unless Tampa gets their stadium situation settled down there though.
Indeed, a largely uninspiring playoffs of mostly unwatchable games.
* * *
MLB moved the 91st All Star Game (and First Year Player Draft) to Colorado as a defiant protest against the State of Georgia. The issue in question was Georgia Senate Bill 202. Whether or not MLB's action was appropriate, it establishes a new precedent.
The State of Texas recently enacted a series of highly controversial laws. These included Texas Senate Bill 8. Due to pandemic protocols, last year's 116th World Series was staged entirely in Arlington, Texas. In retrospect, it follows that MLB should regret that decision.
It is not my place to comment on American laws. On the other hand, it would be wildly hypocritical for MLB to entertain any return to Montréal as long as Québec Bill 21 remains in effect. As a Canadian, I will comment here: Bill 21 is a discriminatory law and unabashedly obscene.
Just like the strike zone, the important element is consistency. For better or worse, MLB has opened Pandora's Box.
For the playoffs I think MLB will just allow games to happen where they happen as it is the home team's park, not a neutral site or a single game 'wow' event which is planned years in advance. I fully expect Atlanta to get that ASG back in a few years when the pressure dies down. But if it increases then they won't. Remember, MLB is played in big cities and those tend to be more left wing than right wing even in the deep south, thus they will focus on keeping those viewers/fans happy. To MLB money = #1 religion.
More like, if someone offered you $35 million, rising to $45 million, payable over 9 years, would you take it knowing you'd make at least that much if you didn't suffer a career-ending injury, even if you never improved your performance at all from what you have already done in the majors as a 21-year-old.
I'm going to make this my last comment on Albies, but I really think people are losing sight of the fact he was a former #11 overall prospect by Baseball American and MLB.com, he had held his own in the majors at 20 and been an all-star at age 21 with a 4.7 WAR season. That is not a player who should be giving up four free agent years for $7 million a pop. With that track record, you don't think he would have gotten $15 million over three arbitration years (which is what he signed them away for)?
Profar hit his second arbitration year with 1,100 at bats over five seasons (which were over seven calendar years) and had an OPS+ of over 80 in ONE season and still settled for $3.6 million. And that was in 2019.
So it would be comparable to more than $4 million in today's dollars. Albies has never had an OPS+ below 100 and is making $5 million in his second arbitration year. This isn't about "doing everything right" to get a bigger payday; it's about basically not suffering a career-ending injury. Albies has never had a WAR under 3.5 in a full season. Zips estimated he would be worth $280 million over the course of the contract!
This isn't about him giving up $30 million of upside for security. This is about a top prospect who had already had above-average performance in the majors at a time when a lot of players are still in college signing away his free agency for pennies on the dollar.
I apologize for banging on about the same topic, but these contracts are in a different stratosphere to some of the team-friendly extensions that young players sign for security or pitchers sign to mitigate injury risk.
Are any players wearing religious garbs during the game?
Is that allowed?
Have you noticed that the Yankees clubhouse rules are more severe than the Quebec laws?
If I had been a couple of years older I would have been taught by a noun wearing the full outfit like it happened to my brother. I don't feel like I missed anything.
I did have a Jewish professor at the U of O, an institution established by the Catholic Archdiocese and originally under the direction of the Oblates of Mary Immaculate.
The University's motto is Deus scientiarum Dominus est.
He liked making jokes while walking in front of some relics from the original days.
It's not like he was going to sign himself or something.
Not something I would have noticed, but he always brought it up on the first day of class.
Other people's religion can be unabashedly obscene.
- Good old Travis Snider sure would've loved a great deal at 22. Top prospect at 21, mediocore year at 22, career earnings of $5.148 million.
- Junior Felix (no one knows his real age so I use the age we were told but might have been as much as 10 years older). At 21 a 2.5 WAR player, 22 a 1.9, fairly solid but just 1.6 for the rest of his career. Under $3 mil lifetime.
- Brett Lawrie came up at 21 with a bang 3.3 WAR, 4.5 at 22, 2 more years in the 2's, then 2 in the 1's, and never got the massive payday. Total earnings of $8.1 mil. Probably the best 'worst case' for the kids in Atlanta.
I suspect sites of other eliminated teams are similar.
Very impressed with the power of O Martinez at a young age.
Words from Shapiro: " They're guys we're going into the market and compete for, but I,m not a believer that you have to sign anyone back". He goes on to say we will get better (my short version of what he said).
This is a fairly big clue IMO of the Jay's plan/philosophy on how they will proceed.
I expect lots of rumors and hope to not get sucked in.
I was fortunate to tune into the Astros game just in time to catch their offensive explosion. I tuned it immediately after the near strike 3 and caught the rest of the inning. Nice to see Boston lose IMO. I find their over achievement highly irritating (especially when compared to what I feel like was underachievement by a superior Jays team).
Albies was and is a way better player than Odor. Odor had combined war for his 21+22 seasons of 5. Albies had a WAR of 8.2 in the same period. He gave away 4 years of free agency and the maximum he can get is $45M for 9 years. He would have made more going through regular arbitration without giving up a year of free agency. Yes, there's always a chance of catastrophic injury but that is extremely rare and the risk reward made no sense. If Albies needed money badly, he could have done a different, shorter deal and bought out his arbitration years or something or even just signed a better deal. You don't think the Braves would have done this for another $25M added on? it still would have been a steal. The Braves bought out his prime for $5-7M a year. What would he get for a free agent deal if he were a similar player at 27? 6 years/$150M or something? He cost himself tens of millions of dollars for absolutely no reason.
The Jeff Passan tweet sums it up:
"It's typical that agents criticize competitors' deals. But I've now heard from executives, players, analytics people, development side and scouts who are saying the same thing: The Ozzie Albies extension might be the worst contract ever for a player. And this is not hyperbole."
Philadelphia got lucky with Z Wheeler. He was a good #3 IMO before they signed him and turned into a #1. I suspect he got a 2 or 3 year contract. Maybe his contract closely resembles Roark. When next Wheeler is a FA he will hope for a good contract. He turns 32 in May 2022.
SPs to anchor a rotation are maybe 7 FAs this off season? Scherzer/Stroman who are good and durable. Not Syndergaard who is coming off injury and needs to prove himself IMO. No QO for him would not surprise me. deGrom's injury definitely hurt NYM's playoff hopes. deGrom will be 34 next June.
I was actually fine with the All Star Game deciding home field.
Retiring Joe West behind home plate for Game 1?
Final MLB games without Universal DH?
I didn't see the game but on the highlights it showed an overhead view of the plate and, unless the pitch was high which it didn't look like, then then it was clearly a strike. Instead, it was called a ball, the inning didn't end and the floodgates opened for the Astros. If I was on the Red Sox I'd feel jobbed.
No, it wouldn't. He signed away 9 years of control for $35M with a maximum of $45M. Fangraphs had him as worth $33M this year. He's already made the Braves way more than they spent for the entire extension. He is now signed to what is either a 4 year-$30M or a 6 year-$40M and it's the Braves option which one they want. That's $6.7-$7.5M a year. You're talking about a player who would get likely $25M a year on a long term deal on the open market who is getting paid like a backup infielder/low-end starter. I mean, Tommy La Stella got 3/$18.75 and he's certainly not an everyday player.
Diaz was awful but that actual call was very close. It was likely a strike but a breaking ball in the top corner, barely touching the zone is the type of normal missed call.
The Jays are in a good position right now. a solid ML catcher, a good defensive backup, and a kid who can hit enough to be a DH but catches, and a prospect charging fast to take over that role. Time to cash some of those chips.
Is anyone going to value Kirk as a young C with a great bat? Or will they see Kirk as a platoon DH with some offensive upside? His conditioning does not really suggest he's a good bet to improve enough that stick at a premium defensive position. But it's possible. I personally believe in the bat so unless someone is willing to pay for a young, pre-arb, plus bat C, I would not trade him.
If Moreno is actually knocking down the door sometime soon, and if Jansen continues to be a competent major leaguer, that's a nice problem to have.
Personally I'd be on board for dealing Kirk in a Ramírez trade, but for this rumour it would depend on who else was in the package. Top prospects and major league players sounds like a lot.
Top prospects would probably include a shortstop. In July, it might have included Martin.
Ramirez would walk after 2 years, so they would have to keep a young 3rd baseman like Groshans.
Can't keep all those middle infielders anyway.
You can also see what Atkins and Shapiro turned down the proposal.
The front office has made some very good low-cost (in money and prospects) moves in the last year or two. Hopefully they can keep that up. Doing so will be harder if they’re under significant financial constraints.
If people wouldn't give up Martinez, Kirk, and Espinal for Ramirez that's probably a good approximation of what it would take. There's probably some recency bias + prospect status built in there, as people would probably feel differently about parting with Martinez, Jansen, and Biggio.
That's just not true. There are literally articles on the internet from the days after he signed the contract calling it an absolutely terrible contract for Albies. It was widely recognized at the time it was signed as an awful deal. There is no "recency bias" here.
There are three articles from April 2019 on Fangraphs only titled, "Ozzie Albies Just Signed a Stinker", "Here's Why the Ozzie Albies Deal Was Terrible" and "What Can the MLBPA Do About Ozzie Albies' Deal?" Sports Illustrated has one from April 2019 titled "Ozzie Albies's Contract Extension Is Insultingly Low". You can find articles from the same time period on other sites.
A tweet from Jeff Passan at the time (https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/1116419435244457984?lang=en) reads: "It's typical that agents criticize competitors' deals. But I've now heard from executives, players, analytics people, development side and scouts who are saying the same thing: The Ozzie Albies extension might be the worst contract ever for a player. And this is not hyperbole."
I don't think we can hold the Donaldson deal up as the standard against which to measure potential trades.
Sure - but IIRC, that trade is also widely regarded as one Oakland had to make due to Donaldson's increasing salary (they couldn't afford to keep him) AND it's widely regarded as being a HUGE steal for the Jays (i.e. we fleeced Oakland). It's like saying "why trade 3 players for a 3B, when we could just get another EE or JB off the scrapheap to play 3B and hit 40+ HR?"
Did you miss a /s tag?
IMO the current window opened much faster than expected. Vlad was out of shape for 2019 & 20. Bo had not yet played a full ML season. Nobody had even dreamed of Manoah. Ray's, Matz's and Semien's performances were a very big surprise.
The negatives were Springer and the pen.
For 2022 we start with a better rotation of Ryu, Manoah and Berrios. Stripling was considered the swing man because his 2020 was very bad. He should be considered the 4th or 5th for 2022. For 2021 Only Ryu had high expectations. Maybe Pearson if he was healthy. Ray and Matz were question marks.
I agree that many people viewed the Donaldson trade favourably at the time, but you need to be careful about relying on hindsight. Not everyone viewed the trade as a "fleecing." For example:
- "I have to dissent from the consensus on this one. I think that the A's will do better than the Jays in 2015 and a lot better in a few years" (Mike Green)
- "Hate to see Barreto go. That's a huge price to pay" (#2JBrumfield)
- "I understand this deal and have to give it a thumbs up - it's also a good deal for Oakland" (85BlueJay)
- "Not the biggest fan. Mostly because of the age difference between Donaldson and Lawrie. Donaldson is beginning his decline phase now while getting expensive fast" (Moe)
- "This looks to me to be a good trade for both sides, which probably means Oakland got a bit of the light end in it" (Spifficus)
- "I'm warming up to it a bit. You all are doing a pretty good job of selling the trade :) I still think Baretto will be the one we miss the most in a few years" (CeeBee)
To me, the only way the contract makes sense is if there’s something in his medicals that caused both parties to worry about his longevity. So as a result they’re both attempting to hedge - Albies through term and Atlanta through lower AAV. I’m thinking something like Devon Travis’ shoulder(or knees) or Tanaka’s elbow. He and Atlanta might just be having success in addressing these issues to date.
I concede that there’s no evidence of this so far, however for such a contract to both be offered and then accepted tells me something’s up. It’s hard to accept something so out of line so I assume there’s information we’re not privy to that makes it more reasonable.
They have already made a list of the guys they have targeted. The list may be 5-10 guys. On last years list Springer was probably in the top 5 but not Ray and Semien. I have no idea where Matz was as a trade target.
I can see Ramirez being a trade target. He is a good player. There probably are others on the "available for trade" list. Since they value prospects a lot then most likely they will only trade what they can afford to give up ie don't empty the farm.
I expect that they will follow policies on how to become strong and stay strong. Control expensive contracts and have a strong farm.
The problem is that would be about it for trade chips until some other kids start showing off more and climbing those prospect lists. I don't see Moreno as available at almost any price right now. Orelvis Martinez is close to untradeable but I think for a guy like Ramirez the Jays would part with him, but not in a year or mid-season this year. This winter is the time to trade Ramirez, not next winter and not mid-season 2022.
Alternatives like Chapman are FAR cheaper. Chapman would only cost Groshans which would make a lot of sense for both teams - Jays are win now, A's are build cheaply for the future at all times. Hmm...despite batting right (which I don't see as a problem but many others including our GM do) I think this is a really good fit. For 2 years he was elite 7+ WAR, then dropped the last 2 years. Would being surrounded by a team of great bats release the pressure on him and allow him to get going again? Maybe.
I suspect nothing will happen until the free agency period begins and we know for sure that Semien is going away and the Jays can talk with the assorted free agent SS's out there to see if any want to play at 2B or 3B in 2022 and beyond. Story last played 2B/3B in 2015 in AAA (never in the majors), Corey Seager played a little 3B in the majors & minors in 2015, Carlos Correa never played anywhere but SS at any pro level, Javier Baez played a lot at 2B this year, and 3B in 2018/19. Andrelton Simmons would be wasted anywhere but SS (and has never played anywhere but). For real 3B you get Kris Bryant (moved to LF a lot this year), and Eduardo Escobar (played at a lot of positions over the years).
I suspect the Jays #1 choice would be to keep Semien but not at any price and his price will be high. #2 would be Ramirez but the trade price will be high and I suspect they don't want to pay it. #3 is a free agent as the cost is just money, #4 is Chapman due to his decline the past 2 seasons (depending on what the underlying stats say). Right now I suspect the Jays know Semien's asking price and aren't feeling confident they'll keep him, they know Cleveland's price for Ramirez and hope they come down (I suspect the 3 I listed plus more, probably pitching), the free agents are an unknown right now. I suspect they tossed out feelers for Chapman but aren't willing to pull the trigger until they know all the other options. Worst case is giving Espinal the full time job in 2022 with Biggio at 2B hoping for Groshans to develop quickly with Otto Lopez in the mix as well (the cheap option).
Chapman is definitely interesting if the price is reasonable. Only 28 with just the one off year that hopefully would drop the price a bit.
Other than Manoah, this was such a rotten year for our pitching prospects. Going into next year, not much excites me for either the pen or rotation…or to trade for talent. And had Pearson emerged, there’d be less pressure to go big for a pricey starter, which now looks like a necessity.
Groshans could be up mid-year and outperform Chapman.
I'd take Chapman against 3 or 4 lesser prospects, but I don't think he really ticks the boxes.
Donaldson was less valuable because he was not on a cheap contract and had to get paid.
The return for Lindor wasn't great. 2 middle infielders and 2 prospects, one outfielder and one pitcher but they had to include Carrasco. Ramirez needs to be traded now or at the deadline and trading him at the deadline would be easier only if they think they'll be out of contention by then.
The Jays don't have pitching to trade. Anyone trading pitching usually wants pitching back.
Gurriel is in Toronto for another 3 years and I don't see any reason for trading him.
He was 4th in bWAR this year among position players despite struggling for months.
He's cheap and he's seen as a good clubhouse guy. Same as Hernandez.
I see Pearson as the 5th starter and Stripling as the 6th one.
So they need one more.
Would Berrios, Manoah, Ryu, Matz, and Pearson be good enough?
I suppose Groshans can be moved if they don't mind playing Orelvis Martinez at 3B.
Hiraldo is an obvious trade candidate but I don't think he has a high value.
Same story about Smith and Lopez.
BTW, Moreno watched 14 pitches in his first AFL game and walked 3 times.
* * *
In Business News: The Chairman of the Rogers Board made a power play against the CEO, but did not win the vote.
Update: The Chairman is out at home plate?
Small potatoes for the Boardroom...
Hope Pearson gets healthy enough to give us 100IP as a starter. I expect Atkins to roll the dice on another SP for depth at about $10mil. He would compete for the 4/5 rotation spot with Pearson and Stripling. Hatch, Kay and others will have another opportunity to show if they can start. If not there is always room in the pen.
This would be the low payroll version.
Top Ten
1) Kyle Drabek - part of the underwhelming return for Roy Halladay,
career 30 games started most of them 2 seasons with the Jays WHIP - 1.70 career 0.1 WAR
2) Brett Lawrie-kind of a head case, I really thought he was going to be great, 4 years with the Jays, 2 elsewhere career 15.6 WAR
3) Deck McGuire- nothing to see here, 8 innings with the Jays 9 hits 5 walks 7 k's, 43 innings with other teams career WAR 0.2
4) Zach Stewart- Eeech! 16 innings with Jays, 26 hits 5 walks 10 k's , 103 total innings pitched career -1.6 WAR
5) Asher Wojiechowski- drove equipment managers mad trying to fit his name on a jersey, never pitched for Jays, 202 total MLB innings including 4 this year with the Yankees career WAR 0.0
6) Carlos Perez- catcher was traded with several other to Houston in 2012 in exchange for J.A.Happ, among others. That worked out well. Parts of 5 seasons with 3 teams 618 AB's career WAR 1.1
7) Aaron Sanchez- I was always a fan of him, great stuff but was never the pitcher he should have been except for 1 good season. 625 innings pitched 571 with the Jays, 35 with SF Giants in 2021, career 9.8 WAR
8) J.P. Arencibia- looked good the first game, went downhill from there, 1573 total AB's over 6 seasons, 1392 with the Jays career WAR 1.9
9) Travis D'Arnaud- part of another underwhelming trade, 9 seasons in MLB with 4 teams, 50 games for Atlanta in 2021 career WAR 4.4
10) Anthony Gose- came with Drabek in Halladay trade, fast with good defense but couldn't hit a lick. 1128 MLB AB's 552 AB's with the Jays, became a pitcher and had 6 IP with Cleveland in 2021. career WAR 2.0
In the 11-20 rankings were a half dozen who played in the majors to different degrees.
Noah Syndergaard- okay, trading prospects does hurt sometimes because Noah turned out to be probably the best of the bunch, even if he's injured now. He has a career WAR of 14.7 and might add to it if he can come back from TJ surgery successfully. D'Arnaud was part of the deal, too and the Jays got R.A. Dickey who, if nothing else, was an ininng eater, averaging 233 IP over 4 years and 7.1 WAR. My God, he was exasperating to watch pitch, though. One game he would be unhittable, the next that knuckleball would go anywhere but over the plate and the Jays would be down 6-0 after the first inning.
Others : Jake Marisnick 11.3 WAR, Adeiny Hechavarria 5.1 WAR , Henderson Alvarez 0.3 WAR, Eric Thames 2.1 WAR, Chad Jenkins 1.5 WAR
I'll always remember Jenkins pitching multiple good innings in relief in that epic 20 some inning game against Detroit. ( I think)
Ones from 11-20 that never made it: Dickie Joe Thon, Kellen Sweeney, and Griffin Murphy.
Players mentioned that weren't ranked who made it: Drew Hutchison, Justin Nicolino, Sam Dyson and Moises Sierra.
So there you have it. Rating prospects is a crapshoot at best and if you're agonizing over the Jays losing a prospect in the Rule 5 draft or a trade, just remember, he probably wasn't going to amount to anything anyway.
1) I don't care much for Baseball America rankings. They count pedigree and tools too high IMO.
2) I am still a bit scared about trading prospects and the rule 5 draft. Especially now because this FO I think may understand baseball talent.
I like the fact that they believe a position player has to have the hit tool.
G Conine: Good Avg and bb. Great power. Horrible K rate.
J Palacios, W Robertson and T Morris are all lefty bats that make contact so they have a chance.
Very hard to figure out the pitching.
The Latin signings are very hard to evaluate because they sign at a very young age.
Weird series. Kike Hernandez got hot then Jordan Alvarez got hot.
To get into the playoffs an AL East team has to 1) Hold its own against it's ALE competitors. I think we did that against Boston and NYY but not TB. 2) We have to also definitely play better than .500 ball against the main competitors. 3) You are also competing for the WC spots against the other 2 divisions. 4) Then there is also luck, bounces and injuries, which cannot really be controlled.
I blame the pen for being unable to hold a lot of leads. They were terrible. Borucki, Dolis, Merryweather, Phelps, Yates were unable to provide enough innings due to injury. Thornton, Zeuch Hatch and Kay could not take up the slack. Basically they missed an opportunity to establish themselves. Also those 3 maybe cannot put the whole blame on injuries.
Atkins will have to do something like this again.
Atlanta VS Houston
Choppers vs Cheaters. Alex vs Dusty.
Georgia & Texas in the World Series. Politics, optics, etc. Is it accurate to say that MLB embraces Woke-ism? MLB HQ is located in Manhattan, an island of the largest concentration of wealth on Earth. Just sayin'.
Only in an Alternative Facts sort of way.
The odd part was it being a condition of accepting Uruji's contract extension.