Memories of 1985 when the Jays entered the final weekend needing just 1 win to go to the playoffs. A heartbreaking loss on the Friday followed by the big win on Saturday to reach the playoffs for the first time ever. Then a loss on Sunday as Phil Niekro (future Blue Jay) won his 300th game. Hopefully the Jays do better this time, but have the same end result - making the playoffs. Win all 3 and get to 90 wins - the Jays have made the playoffs everytime but one that they won 90+ (1987). Not to be forgotten, Seattle is just 1/2 a game behind the Jays, Boston 1 game ahead, Yankees 2 ahead. 4 teams who all want to win out the string to have a shot at the playoffs. Only 1 will play in the ALDS against Tampa. 2 will be golfing by this time next week, a third shortly after.

FYI: if MLB went by a 16 team playoff, winners of each division gets in, then next 5 as wild cards, then the playoffs would be set outside of seeding. Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Seattle, and Oakland all in. All sub 500 teams out. Using last years top 2 in all divisions plus 2 wild cards would have us worrying a LOT about Boston but having a shot at the AL East #2 slot (Tampa/NYY (Boston/Toronto), ChiSox/Cleveland (2 up on Detroit, 6 on KC), Houston/Seattle (2 up on Oakland)). Using the old single wild card this would be just as big a series but we'd need to hope Boston loses at least one more than the Jays from here on out. The 1969-1993 method (2 per league) would have Houston and the ChiSox fighting hard for the AL West (assuming the Astros still switched leagues). The pre 1969 method of just 1 per league would have Tampa clinching last night when Houston lost to Oakland.

The NL pre-69 through 1993 would have a wild battle between LA and SF as only one would get in. The 1969-1993 method would have Milwaukee in as well (assuming they would be in the East, if not then St Louis would be 3 1/2 up on Atlanta). The single wild card would have everything set outside of the NL East (Atlanta/Philly as it is right now). The 2020 method would have Atlanta/Philly, Milwaukee/St Louis, SF/LAD all in plus 2 wild cards - Cincinnati and San Diego.

Each method would've had some kind of race still going. Plus, of course, teams would've acted differently in July had there been 2-4-8-10-16 teams going to the playoffs.

I'm a little nervous about Ryu tonight. In fact, I wish it was anybody else on the staff starting the series, even Matz, after his last two performances. It's not like he's a power pitcher who has had a drop in velocity, it's that he's leaving pitches in entirely hittable areas and that could prove deadly against the Yankees. I hope Charlie will give the quick hook if things start to go south.

I choose to believe in Ryu.

This is a jays-career-defining start for him.

Montoyo has to manage these 3 games like playoff games, starting with tonight. Not sure he's a good enough in-game manager to succeed in this type of environment, so hopefully the bats do all the talking, but he can't play Reese McGuire based on a hunch, or bring in a low leverage reliever in a tight spot, etc. He's going to have to go with his best, and as a manager who routinely looks like he doesn't know who his best players are, he doesn't inspire much confidence, but hopefully he proves me wrong.

David Laurilia in Fangraphs today talks with Gerrit Cole about his curveball.  Fascinating.

I worry about a Ryu too but he has had success against the Yankees this year. So let’s hope he’s bringing his A+ game. He owes us after last year's playoffs.

Jobu will be with Ryu during warm-up.

Wondering what the lineup will be tonight. Biggio called up and I'm betting big time he starts vs the right hander over the much better on defense Espinal (who also is hitting better) but might start Valera instead. Sigh. I really, really, really hope McGuire doesn't get an AB this series - with 3 catchers, 2 of whom can hit, there is no excuse for using him. The pen is fully rested so hopefully we don't see the low leverage guys unless there is a big spread in the score (5+ runs).

I’m nervous about Ryu but am also curious to see how he does. I like that he’s an experienced veteran who has pitched in big games before.

Looks like this game was FINALLY important enough for Montoyo to just put his best lineup possible out there.

Kirk is likely a better hitter than Gurriel, but the difference isn't large and the club will need Gurriel back to play left field soon if he's healthy. 

I'm willing to subdue my Kirk love and admit that Gurriel has been much hotter for long enough to make him the better option for now.

Not me.  Coming off a hand injury trumps a streak (with Kirk's cold streak actually more important than Gurriel's hot streak) in my book.  But I still think that it's the right move. 

Yay! I was wrong - he did put Espinal in the lineup over Valera and Biggio. Dickerson in LF is probably setting up the best defense possible for Ryu. Although Dickerson is -1.1 UZR/150 in LF this year (but +23.7 in CF, and +41.3 in RF for a net of +2.0 in the OF this year). Gurriel in LF has been a -2.0 so no matter how you cut it Dickerson has been better in LF this year for defense. As an FYI: Hernandez has been a +4.7 in RF, but -3.6 in LF in 2021. Springer has been bad in CF though at -6.5 vs his career mark of +0.9.

No matter how you cut it though I'd say this is as strong a lineup as possible right now outside of having Kirk behind the plate but Jansen has been hitting better than Kirk lately (588 OPS vs 195 over the past 2 weeks) not that either has hit worth a darn. Lets hope the teams has a big game tonight - they need it.

Kirk can pinch-hit for Dickerson later in the game if need be, with Grichuk or Dyson moving to the outfield at that point.

It's not easy to be a manager.  What would you do if Ryu and Taillon are both being hit hard and it's 4-4 after 4 innings with both Ryu and Taillon having thrown 90 pitches?  Leave Ryu in for the 5th to face the middle of the Yankee lineup for the third time, or bring on someone else and if so, who?  I know what my answer is- but I won't pretend that it's a good one. 

For me, a couple of keys to the game are:

- Can Ryu deliver a solid outing, mixing location and speed and also staying away from the middle of the plate?

- In a high-adrenaline game, can the Jays hitters be aggressive without being too aggressive (swinging early at pitches out of the zone)?

- Can the bottom of the Jays order contribute? It will be a good sign if Jansen stays hot.

Espinal and Gurriel in the lineup is definitely a pleasant surprise, at least till we see Gurriel’s first at bat.

They’ve mostly played the Yankees well so that should help the team’s confidence. Win or lose, it’s late September exciting baseball

Don't throw that Teoscar come on.

Ryu has some extra juice tonight. His stuff actually looks kinda nasty.

Bo knows clutch.

Gary Sanchez showing Kirk-skeptics what bad catcher D looks like.

Assuming Ryu can only go 4 or 5, who would you bring in?

Cimber maybe.

I’d be tempted to try Pearson, see if he can get 2 innings and switch to Cimber. A lot of different looks for a Yankee hitters

Ballsy. Big spot for Nate. I'd be a bit too chicken to try it.

Dang. Almost had a badly needed quick inning against the top of their lineup. Then that.

OK well use this gift. Knock out their bullpen for the series.

Was this a planned pitching change, or is Taillon injured?

Injured.

1 hit in 3 innings ain’t gonna do it boys.

José Bautista feuded with Baltimore. George Bell battled Boston. As I gather, Cito Gaston always had it in for the Yankees.

Great framing by Danny to get that K.

Love it. Now steal second, Bo.

I know Baltimore fans had it in for Cito...

I wouldn’t mind if Bo tried to steal third.

Yeah greenfrog it would have been a good time for it.

Thankfully....Clutcherson.

Two-out RBI from the bottom of the order. Outstanding. Keep battling.

Huge inning here for Ryu.

Ah that was a strike. Dammit.

Come on Ryu get rizzo please.

This might be the most important inning of the game.

Orioles tied it up.

Montoyo waited too long.

Dickerson gotta do better there.

Cimber save us.

A lot of fluky hits by Yankee batters. We need some good luck coming our way.

Not that flukey. And Ryu issued a critical walk in the inning. He should have been out of there before that.

Agreed. I think Montoyo waited at least one batter too long. Arguably he should have been gone after Urshela, regardless of the outcome.

Eh Ryu facing the lefty was the right call I think. Bad call by the ump for the walk.

But he shouldn't have let Gio get on.

But the Orioles have taken the lead.

Ah please dont just start swinging at everything now jays.

I don't understand pulling Cimber here.

Well, Tabby says manager bringing in their best/high leverage relievers. Pearson? I dunno. Now he says "you have to see how he does." I dunno.

I'm good with everything Montoyo has done so far.

Nice job by Pearson.

Eat that 100, Gardner.

They need another reliable BP arm. Big inning for Nate

Beg, borrow, or steal…just get a run somehow.

Perfect time for vlad to stop swinging at everything. Nice.

Poll question: should Bo steal third?

Ouch.

This is so painful to watch.

No chance they flip the call for us against the yanks.

Bo……

Come on Lourdes make Montoyo look genius.

Bo is who he is, but it would sure be nice to have first and second right now.

Gurriel looks very rusty.  Not really a shocker.

That was a deadly inning.

Ugh what an inning. Showing their youth.

A Sportnet writer described Jays games as consistently “chaotic,” for better or for worse. That seems about right.

Orioles up by 2 going into the 9th.

Not the time for the wave, dummies.

Another bad home plate umpire. Sigh.

Red Sox lose 4-2.

I’m 100% with you greenfrog. This has been excruciating to watch

Red Sox lose with Sale on the mound.

Please take advantage.

He hit every single inside pitch. Let’s give him another one!

Dammit

Their 2 biggest hits of the game were on pitches waaayyyy out of the zone. That's tough.

UO, Stanton was waiting for that pitch.

Just an amazing swing by Stanton to hit that changeup out of the park

How unlikely was it?

Trevor Richards had thrown 917 changeups down & out of the zone in his MLB career before tonight and none (!!!) had ever been hit for a HR.

Crazy & unbelievable hit. pic.twitter.com/HiCN15EX2n

— Chris Black (@DownToBlack) September 29, 2021

Anyways, their big bats showed up.

Time for ours to.

The 3 run homer was a killer. But this offense has to do better than 3 hits (4 total bases) in 7 innings. Lucky to have 2 runs and that won’t win many games.

"Lowest pitch that Stanton has ever hit by a homerun in the statcast era" - Shulman

Hot hitter with huge power. Fouled off multiple inside pitches. Looking for changeup down and in, where Richards likes to throw it. Outcome: home run.

Top of the order up, 2 innings, 4 runs.

This game shouldn't be over.

Pearson and Merryweather both looked better.  That's good.

Baltimore is starting two terrible pitchers against Boston on Wednesday and Thursday. The Jays pretty much have to win the next two games.

If they lose one of their next 2 games the only way they make it in is a collapse by the Red Sox

Well that was pathetic.

I have a lot of confidence in Berrios and Ray. I think the Jays can win those games, even against Cole, if they can get their offense untracked.

Has to be said that the ump has been horrible again with balls and strikes.

Guerrero is 1-21 and Semien is 0-16 in their past few games. Tough time of the year for them to both get cold at the same time

We have a manager that pulls his 3rd best RP after 3 pitches in the 5th of what is essentially a playoff game.

Might be time for an upgrade there, Ross.

Complaining about Montoyo's work tonight is missing the point. By miles. By light years.

It’s not an excuse, because the Jays have (so far) been thoroughly outplayed in this one, but the umpiring has again been very bad.

Can't say I'm happy about Anthony Castro putting a huge game completely out of reach.

UO, the game was out of reach when it was 3-2. They have 3 hits and 1 walk

the umpiring has again been very bad.

The strike zone to RH batters does seem to extend some six inches off the plate. Richards got a called strike in the Stanton at bat that was just silly.

I’m definitely in the camp that the team should move on from Montoyo but I agree that tonight isn’t on the manager. Look to the presumptive ace and lack of offence first and foremost.

In the bigger picture, this is all gravy for me. An exciting September is always great, more so when a product of a season founded on good fortune.

Disappointing game to say the least. They’re running out of “go get ‘em tomorrows.”

Yeah top of the lineup has gone cold again which is rough. Tomorrow is a must win and it’s against Cole too.

Every single pitch Vlad put in play was a ball

Tomorrow the Jays need to take the lead and then hold it. If they get out front of New York, the hitters may loosen up. Falling behind and pressing is a tough path to go down.

Jobu you are worthless. I have found a new idol.

You’re right. At least he didn’t pinch hit Breyvic Valera for Alejandro Kirk to bunt after two walks against a lefty in the 9th inning of a tie game tonight. Could definitely have been worse.

This is a fascinating deep dive into what might be the next frontier, after pitch framing and spin rates. The subject is deception and the poster boy is Yusmeiro Petit, a low velocity low spin artist who doesn't miss many bats but whom no one seems able to hit with any authority. Everyone knows why - "you don't see the ball until it's already in the catcher's mitt" - the challenge is to figure out how it's done, whether it can be measured, and whether it can even be taught.

We're at the point where the Jays probably have to win out to have a real shot. If they're lucky they could lose one more game and still maybe make it.

I dunno Magp8r. Petut has given up a lot of HR. I think it's that hr doesn't give up hits or walks. But he gets hit hard.

Speaking of Catcher Framing, Magpie, it seems like umps have learned to ignore that "skill".

Catcher framing is almost extinct these days: what used to be a 3-4 win skill is worth ~+/- 1 win these days. https://t.co/E5vJlpPTNM pic.twitter.com/rjht4k9x8O

— Rob Arthur (@No_Little_Plans) September 28, 2021

I think it’s time to offer up some fine single malt to Jobu. I was heading for a bottle after the game. The umpiring was bad, but impacted both sides. Jays bats are pressing yet again.

Yankees bullpen is looking formidable and a good reminder to management to nix the “fungible reliever” nonsense and put some money in the pen. Our top 4 guys are generally good, but in today’s game you need more.

Yes, Giancarlo Stanton's HR was ridiculous, so was Anthony Rizzo's single.

Hyun Jin Ryu has thrown 801 pitches low (<1.2ft) & off the plate in his MLB career, and Rizzo's single last night was just the 2nd hit he had ever given up on one of those pitches (.026 avg) pic.twitter.com/ilLtwFWYt1

— Chris Black (@DownToBlack) September 29, 2021

Joe Siddall suggested that Richards had become predictable in his pitch sequence to Stanton. Another broadcaster (Tabler?) said the same thing about Ryu’s pattern of pitches to a hitter. The ability to effectively call a game is something I would be interested in learning more about. I wonder how Jansen would rate on an honest appraisal of this skill (maybe more of a “knack” than a skill).

There may be a connection between my post and UO’s posts about Stanton and Rizzo’s hits last night.

To be fair, on the other side of the ledger, Ryu shook off several signs before throwing the hittable pitch that Judge homered on.

Judge and Stanton are hot, Guerrero and Semien are not. There are a lot more variables but this is a big one.

Yankees bullpen is looking formidable and a good reminder to management to nix the “fungible reliever” nonsense and put some money in the pen.

The Yankees shut the Jays down with

a) Michael King, a middling prospect witha 7.76 ERA in his 27-inning 2020 season, putting it together a bit this year at age 26 as a low-leverage reliever.

b) Clay Holmes, a Pittsburgh reject (Pittsburgh!) with a 5.57 ERA in 120 innings as a Pirate, who has magically turned into an ace reliever in his 25 Yankee innings.

c) Chad Green, a longtime middle reliever originally acquired as a 24-year-old starter stalled out in AA.

d) Luis Severino, a good starter in 2017 and 2018 coming back now in the bullpen after missing nearly 3 years due to injury.

e) Wandy Peralta, a fungible middle reliever with a 4.69 ERA in 184 IP prior to 2021.

These 5 are not a case study in why a team should spend big bucks on relievers.

I think Chapman and Britton are the only highly paid RP on the Yankees, and this year that duo has provided less than 1 WAR in total. I believe that Chad Green is their third highest paid RP at 2.2M.

I 2020 The Jays found out they needed better SPs. After 2019, SPs added were Roark and C Anderson. Neither was cheap or good but they cost no real prospect capitol. Atkins went to 3 teams for reinforcements. Ray & Walker were playing for bad teams and Stripling was way down on LAD's depth chart. No valuable prospects were lost it seems. We ended up with Ryu and Walker being great in 2020 and Shoemaker and Ray not that bad/playable. It was enough to take the last playoff spot. Atkins off season acquisitions of Ray and Matz and mid season Berrios were very successful.

For 2021 the pen was bad and Atkins again went the trade route for Cimber, Soria and Richards. Soria has not been helpful. Cimber and Richards doubled the reliable relievers in the pen. Adding to Romano and Mayza. Again the players given up were not that much.

For 2022 Atkins has said he will strengthen the pen. He has not said how. I expect that by mid season or earlier we will be able to evaluate the 2022 pen. Good contributions from our large collection of young pitchers will be crucial I believe. That seems to be our biggest lack of success area. Going to weak teams to pick up their good relievers is a strategy that we hopefully will not have to do again out of necessity.

I'm at a point where I am fine if the Jays don't make the playoffs (or a tiebreaker) as long as it leads to Montoyo's firing. He didn't do anything egregious last night, but for the totality of the season, we are going to look back and see that he couldn't get the most out of a roster when practically every important thing went right and the things that went wrong were relatively minor (especially when compared to the rest of the league). How a team can underachieve this much is remarkable. Two MVP candidates, a Cy Young candidate, good rotation health all season. Extremely frustrating.

If the Jays miss the playoffs/tiebreaker, and Montoyo is still around in 2022, then it would be a bad look for the FO, IMO. If you can cut bait on underperforming talent that make real money (ex. Roark), then the manager is a much easier decision to make. Of course, if the Jays win out the rest of the season and head into a WC game, then he might actually get extended, which is both exciting and terrifying.

we are going to look back and see that he couldn't get the most out of a roster when practically every important thing went right and the things that went wrong were relatively minor (especially when compared to the rest of the league).

Doesn't the manager get any credit for practically every important thing going right? At the very least I think he should get some credit for the rotation health, Vladdy's emergence, and cobbling together a competent bullpen out of many arms with very little track record. Of course none of these things happened because of Montoyo alone, but I don't take for granted that any manager would have overseen these same results.

The Yankees didn't spend resources on updating their pen because their lineup had several gaping holes.

They acquired Rizzo, Gallo and Stinky but these guys were not the difference makers yesterday.
That was Judge and Stanton who have made adjustments to how the Jays are pitching them.

Two MVP candidates, a Cy Young candidate, good rotation health all season.

Two MVP candidates who rebounded from disappointing seasons, and a Cy Young candidate who learned how to throw strikes for the first time in his career. Plus a rookie of the year candidate who pitched all of 35 minor league innings, and a rotation that was pretty healthy for most of the year.

Typically, managers get credit for stuff like that happening.

With the off day Monday, I was hoping the team would give Ryu a longer rest and start him against the Orioles - Disappointed the team started a struggling Ryu in such a big game.

Despite Kirk's 3 for 6 line with a HR against Cole last time out (and being the vastly superior hitter overall), Reese McGuire and his 81 wRC+ are in the lineup tonight instead with the Jays' season on the line.

I'm sure there's an explanation for this one somewhere.

I’m not saying I agree with the decision, but I think it’s defensible on the basis that McGuire is more experienced (especially defensively) and this is a very important, high-pressure game. Also Berrios may have had some input regarding who the catcher should be.

Montoyo may not be a solid in game manager but sure seems to be all aces for the other stuff. Namely team cohesion no matter the circumstances, keeping stars and scrubs from fighting (a nightmare in Cito's last term here). In game you get the keeping a healthy rotation (mostly) in a year after a messy one. Think about the rotation. 16 guys were used - Roark was hoped to be the #3/4 guy. Pearson was to be the kid star, Kay/Thornton to be the emergency backups but expected to be inning eaters if nothing else. Instead Ray (who many felt was a waste of $8 mil) figured out where the strike zone is and became an ace, Matz (expected to be bottom of the rotation) has 28 very good starts (113 ERA+), Manoah came out of nowhere but was watched closely and has 19 starts (mostly very good ones). Even Stripling was very good for a key stretch before getting hurt.

The pen has been juggles in frustrating ways at times, but remember the closer was IL'ed pre-season (Yates), the #1 setup man only got 10 1/3 iP (Phelps), the replacement closer got 2 saves then IL'ed as well (Merryweather), last years closer fell apart (Dolis), Chatwood was a solid setup for a stretch then forgot where the strikezone was and was released, Borucki was to be a key piece but was IL'ed most of the year and lately has flip flopped between AAA/majors, Hand was traded for but pitched about as well as I would. I think Montoya did a solid job juggling what he had. Giving kids a shot and if they blew it they were dumped. Same for vets (but with more rope as Chatwood got far more than he should've).

Jacob Barnes is back.

Pete Walker deserves credit for the pitching and Robbie Ray. I don't think Montoyo is discussing mechanical adjustments with pitchers on the roster. As far as Semien, he is a 30 year old veteran, and he wasn't coming off a down season. It was a 60 game season. He had a bad first two weeks in 2020 but essentially played at his current level from that point on, including the playoffs. It's just that the sample was so small due to the condensed season that the overall numbers didn't look great.

If you want to argue that Montoyo helped get the younger players adjusted to the big leagues, maybe that's true. The clubhouse certainly appears to be very well run with no issues. But that's not the reason every SP stayed healthy (for the most part), or why every important non-Springer position player was able to stay healthy/play everyday, etc. That's quite a bit of luck on the Jays side. The fact that they have underachieved as much as they have, combined with endless amounts of questionable lineup/bullpen decisions, is a pretty big indictment on the manager.

Case in point, a loss tonight and the Jays are pretty much done. Yet, Reese McGuire starts at catcher. This is the type of stuff Montoyo has done all season.

I knew McGuire was going to play because Charlie loves using everyone on the roster. When everyone is hitting, it doesn't matter much, but when everyone is struggling having one of the worst hitters in baseball starting doesn't make a lot of sense.

The idea of firing Charlie is silly. I hate the bunting, I don't like a lot of in game stuff but by far the most important job a manager has is team cohesion and attitude and he's done a fantastic job there.

Hopefully McGuire isn't in there tonight because Montoyo believes he needs the work.  Right place, wrong time.

I would be shocked if Montoyo is fired

A manager that doesn't know who his best players are, bunts with 2 strikes, doesn't understand bullpen leverage, etc, should not be managing a team with playoff aspirations. His best qualities are actually best positioned with a rebuilding team because wins/losses don't matter. It's not 2019 anymore. It's not silly at all to replace him. It would be silly to keep him if the hope is to legitimately contend.

I suppose we should be thankful he didn't start Dyson as well like he did at this time last week. Gotta get everyone on the 25 man involved after all.

Good article on load management versus ironman approaches featuring a Jay: https://sports.yahoo.com/no-load-management-here-meet-the-2-mlb-stars-committed-to-playing-all-162-games-150809939.html

The Yankees are confident and loose right now. The Jays need to turn that around so that they start feeling some pressure. The best way to do that is to build and maintain an early lead in both games.

I assume McGuire is catching because a) Berrios has been more effective with McGuire behind the plate b) Montoyo figures neither Kirk nor Jansen have much chance against Cole anyway.

A. may be correct, although debatable. B., based on extremely recent history, is incorrect.

Kirk is 4 for his last 38. He's colder than my heart.

Guerrero and Bichette have been slumping and that's not Charlie's fault.
Springer is not 100%. Neither is Gurriel.
Having to DH Gurriel is not ideal.

Jansen is 1 for 3 against Cole and McGuire is 0 for 3.
Kirk is 3 for 6 with a homerun, but they need Kirk fresh tomorrow.
Besides, Kirk is slumping as well.

The one thing I don't like is bringing Cimber with runners in scoring position.
That's a waste of his skills which is producing ground balls.
Would have been nice to have a guy who can strand runners.
Hand and Soria have not delivered.

In a game in which you never have more than a 1 run lead, with runners on every innings, it's all high leverage.
It would have been a disaster if they had used the top relievers yesterday to make it a 3-2 loss.

Those Twins losses really hurt now and that was all a due to lack of offense.

Good one Mags. 

Oh I recognize that Kirk is ice cold. However, if this decision was based on likely offensive outcomes then this team really is doomed with Montoyo at the helm. I don't think it was and I think all of this overcomplicates the likely reason - getting everyone involved, playing pitcher/C pairing hunches is just the way Montoyo always manages. Why would he change now?

It would have been a disaster if they had used the top relievers yesterday to make it a 3-2 loss.

It surely would, and Cimber, Mayza, Romano are all available tonight because the team got some good work from Pearson and Merryweather.

Cimber and Richards have done a fine job since coming here but both have characteristics that make neither one all that ideal if there are already runners on base. Richards doesn't give up very many hits at all, but the ones he does allow tend to leave the yard. It's usually a clean escape but it can be a disaster. It's almost impossible to go deep against Cimber, but he strikes out significantly fewer hitters than the average pitcher. He will give up contact, and sometimes contact is all it takes.

Well, sure. Maybe Gerrit Cole is just what Kirk needs to get his bat going. Maybe Berrios' terrible outing with Kirk catching was just one of those things. Maybe. Hey, probably. This might be a good time to test these hypotheses.

I love Kirk as a prospect, but I feel comfortable with McGuire’s defense behind the dish tonight. I know it’s a contrarian view.

Kirk is good and has a lot of potential but I think some fans are being a bit crazy on the hype. On another board I frequent there were multiple saying to bench Springer in favor of him at DH. Or basing his defensive skills/game calling solely on CEra. Anyway I am glad we have him and think he’s got a promising future but he’s not arrived yet and his conditioning i think precludes him right now being an everyday player.

Man, Berrios is dealing.  Nothing beats meaningful fall ball. 

The O’s are keeping it close. It’s 1-0 Boston through 4 IP. You never know.

Well.... that's annoying. Berrios isn't even throwing bad pitches on those hits either.

Gardner’s double wasn’t even hit all that well. Teoscar almost ran it down.

Insurance runs would be a good idea.

Wow. Just wow. Another dropped popup. Hard to believe after game three of the Boston series. The Jays absolutely have to cash this run in.

That's a nice (and needed) instant response.

Nice fielding by Berrios on a tricky and crucial play.

Ugh I wonder if Berrios is going to head downhill here fast. Despite that start it looks like he’s losing things. Definitely nervous here.

Went from a great start to just a decent one.

Up to the bullpen now.

Great composure by Berrios to work his way through that inning.

Santiago Espinal has been a great surprise this year.  One thing about prospect watching- it's very hard to see from a distance a player's commitment to improve.  Espinal obviously has it.  He's a good ballplayer. 

McGuire should not be hitting for himself with a runner on base and Berrios out of the game. It’s bad enough he gets the start.

No throw home there?  I know Dickerson's arm isn't great, but I thought it could have been close if he came up throwing.  Granted, that would have probably put the go-ahead run in scoring position if he didn't get the out at home, but isn't it worth a throw to get the tying run?  Maybe it wasn't going to be close....

Damn it that guy always kills us. Well back to square one again. Disappointed to piss away a lead again.

Maybe it wasn't going to be close....

Dickerson throwing? Never going to be close.

Absolutely.  With two outs and Dickerson's arm, there was no play at home. 

When you are on a winning streak, like the Yankees, the bounces go your way. A couple of hits just out of Teoscar's reach, a swinging bunt down the line and the game is tied.

Maybe it wasn't going to be close....

Dickerson throwing? Never going to be close.
Fair enough--I guess I was just hoping they could keep the lead.  It's a 2-inning game now--Still going to hold out that hope.

Never fun when the catcher you have in for defense makes game-breaking defensive mistakes.

Very interesting strategy question.  Do you bring in Romano to face Judge and Stanton?  I knew that Charlie wouldn't, but there's a case for it. 

game-breaking defensive mistakes.

Blinked and I missed it.

Merryweather in case Cimber falters?  Weird.

Do you bring in Romano to face Judge and Stanton?

Absolutely not. Why is one worried about Judge and Stanton? Because they hit home runs. Which major league pitcher gives up the fewest home runs? Adam Cimber.

BO BABY BO

BO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

That pitch to Bo was on the inside edge of the strike zone and Bo hits it out to right centre.

So, everyone feeling relaxed at the moment?

exhale

Like the kid said to the Repo Man: "This is intense."

Had 'em all the way.

Cimber A+
Romano A+
Berrios A+
Semien A+
Bo A+ (and a special award for sheer awesomeness)
Team effort A+

That was a rollercoaster of a game!

Winning is the main thing, of course, but something I never thought of, until it was mentioned post game, is that the 5 runs earned for Cole hurts his Cy Young hopes and a great outing by Ray tomorrow might clench it for him.

Boy, Vlad is ice cold at the plate. We really need him to break out.

I thought Berrios was excellent tonight and pretty unfortunate to give up much of anything. Bo kind of gives off a “flair for the dramatic” vibe a la Alomar. Live to fight another day!

Still can't believe the Jays got Cimber for one of the worst players in baseball this season. Big win tonight. Every remaining game is a must win, so just have to take it one (nerve racking) game at a time.

Have to say, I picked a pretty good game to see at the Dome tonight.

Admittedly I didn't watch the whole game, but I'm not sure what the game-breaking defensive mistake McGuire made was.

Cimber was excellent. I thought he was pulled too soon yesterday, but it kept him available today and that was crucial.

Given Cimber only thew 16 pitches, 15 strikes, I figure he is available tomorrow if needed to get a final out of an inning. sidearmers tend to be made of rubber. Romano threw 12 and is most definitely available. Mayza might not be after a 20 pitch game. I keep having a feeling Vlad has a big game coming. Hopefully game 3 vs Yankees is it. Hopefully that is the last time we see McGuire hitting too.

Hopefully that is the last time we see McGuire hitting too.

If Berrios is pitching, McGuire is catching. It's like Ray and Kirk.

There are 3 possibilities for when Berríos makes his next start:

Game 163: This would be much like yesterday in terms of the roster and it being a must-win game. I hope you're wrong about it automatically being McGuire at catcher, I'd go with Jansen.

Game 1, Division Series: Rosters will be down to 26 from the current 28. Does McGuire make the cut?

Game 2, 2022: I'll be surprised and dismayed if McGuire is still a Blue Jay.

In addition to his delivery and his success, I very much enjoy Cimber's low-key intensity out of the bullpen.

I don't believe these trends towards quasi-personal catchers are made in vacuum. I think Charlie and Peter must consult the pitchers. If they do, I'm sure Ray isn't saying he doesn't like throwing to Jansen and I'm sure Berrios isn't saying he wouldn't throw to Kirk. However, I imagine there are conversations or hints about who feels more comfortable throwing to who.

While long-term you want (or need) your pitchers to be able to throw to all the catchers on your roster, at this point in the season, I think it's reasonable to defer to your pitcher's preferences if it's a front-end pitcher and you think it might impact their comfort level. Even if it's psychological and not necessarily born out in the results, if it results in Ray or Berrios specifically feeling better I'd be willing to defer to that.

I think this is a judgement call, so I understand people disagree, but my priority for last night's game would be placing Berrios in the best position within reason to pitch well.

I think Charlie and Peter must consult the pitchers.

That, and they watch the games. And they probably also figure that right now isn't the best time to experiment. Let's stick with what's been working, for the next few days at least.

The tying runners advanced to second and third on a strikeout wild pitch, Thomas. In the next inning McGuire also dropped strike 3, but Cimber got an out a few pitches later anyway.

If we're going to fault McGuire for those issues, maybe we should also give him credit for helping Berrios execute a superb start in the biggest game of the year so far? (A game the Jays won, by the way.)

Still can't believe the Jays got Cimber for one of the worst players in baseball this season.

I think the trade was more about Miami unloading Dickerson's contract rather than an intended fair exchange of equally skilled players.

An under-reported aspect of the trade is that the Marlins even covered part of Dickerson's salary.

Here's the tweet from the Jays account announcing the trade:
https://bit.ly/3zTAqSo

Shi Davidi reported that the net increase to the Jays payroll was only $1M:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/mlb/article/report-blue-jays-acquire-dickerson-cimber-marlins-panik-prospect/

I saw that pitch and it wasn't McGuire's error, in my opinion. (And apparently not just my opinion since....you know....it was scored a wild pitch not a passed ball.)

Mayza bounced the pitch in the dirt right at home plate on the inner half and McGuire used his body to get over the ball, but it nevertheless bounced away. It's silly to call that a "mistake" on McGuire's part.

What a stunner it would be for Seattle to sneak in to the wild card. If the Jays , lose out, I’ll be cheering for Seattle. Gotta like their spunk.

An under-reported aspect of the trade is that the Marlins even covered part of Dickerson's salary.

If that's so then I stand corrected. Thank you. Then yes indeed, it is fair game to mock the Marlins on this one.

Wild pitches can still be a poor reflection on the catcher. If you want to blame the pitcher for burying a slider in the dirt to get a massive K, that's fine too.

The Jays went 8-2 in Kirk's starts in September and are 11-3 in his last 14 starts.

Honestly I still think the fans pushed Bo's hit over the fence. Off the bat it looked nothing like a HR to me.

As for what I called McGuire's "game changing mistake" in the heat of the moment...maybe I was being harsh but at the same time when you know Mayza is going to bury a slider to try for the strikeout you simply have to block that pitch in that scenario if you're a catcher who is in there for defense, imo.

It's crazy that it carried for a HR. It looked like good contact off the bat, but after Stanton's deep fly died in the same inning you assumed Bo's wouldn't go.

Yankees lineup - 10 K, 0 BB, 0 HR
Blue Jays - 8 K, 0 BB, 3 HR

I really don’t understand the complaining about Reese. He was Berrios’s choice as catcher. He called a great game against a formidable team, especially with Berrios’s assortment of pitches and location. Rizzo, Judge and Stanton were 0/11 (3 Ks, no walks) in the game. It was only dumb luck (hit batter, swinging bunt, fly balls barely missed) that allowed the Yankees to score five. The Jays won the game, stopped the Yankees’ win streak, and saved their season for at least one more day.

Failing to corral a wild pitch? Whatever. That happens to all catchers once in a while, and Mayza’s was not a simple one to block.

Fundamentally, McGuire did his job and contributed to the win.

That's fine that he was Berrios' choice. No problem with that.

But was he Mayza's choice?

If there's a report out there that Berrios prefers throwing to McGuire, please share it. Otherwise it's pure speculation.

And even if we do accept that as a fact, McGuire's job should have ended when Berrios was pulled from the game and the C spot came up with a runner on base in a two-run game. That's the real issue here, having a 6-man bench and not deploying those resources. If that wasn't a spot for Biggio, what's he doing with the big club?

You can fault a catcher for waving a glove at a wild pitch, or not getting on his knees to try to smother it, but McGuire did all the right things as far as I saw. The ball just took a bad hop and actually hit him on the arm or it would have gone to the backstop.

A funny part of that particular play was that Voit, the batter, ran hard to first even though he was automatically out and then limped off the field as he obviously has some issues with his knee. Bichette did that in a game not long ago and got called out on it on here. I think it's just a major leaguer's instinct to run to first in this situation and even they forget the rules sometimes.

Agreed with 92-93. I haven't seen anything that suggests that Berrios prefers or specifically asks for McGuire to catch him. Maybe it's true, maybe it isn't, but we can't assume it is true without someone confirming it. And as mentioned, if by some chance Berrios does prefer McGuire catching him, then you can just remove McGuire from the game the moment Berrios is gone, right? That didn't happen, and rarely does happen when Montoyo starts the catchers. If anything, I've noticed him pinch hit for Kirk more than the others, but that might be selective memory on my part.

I think a more likely explanation is that Montoyo just wants to play McGuire instead of having him rot on the bench, so he starts him periodically, and maybe likes something about the dynamic between Berrios and Reese. I'm not sure, but either way, I don't think every SP on the team has requested a personal catcher all of a sudden.

Montoyo actually said before the game that McGuire was catching because he and Berrios had been working well together.

In other words, it wasn't to get a LH bat in the lineup against Cole.

Pitchers don't usually ask for specific catchers unless their names are Clemens or Maddux.

I don’t think he pinch hits for Kirk but he almost always pinch runs for Kirk if he gets on base in the 6th inning or later and the game is remotely close. Obviously, Kirk is slow as molasses so there’s logic to that move. However, I’d like to see Montoyo be slightly more selective with that move when there’s a likelihood of Kirk’s spot coming to the plate again in what may well be an even higher leverage moment later in the game.

Most managers don't like changing catchers in mid-game - the guy who's been out there all along is always going to be the one with the best perspective in the park on how the umpire is calling the game and how the opposition's hitters are reacting to what they get. He's especially unlikely to pinch hit for his starter in the sixth inning when he's got a lead.

That one we all saw, Magpie, and it's quite different than suggesting that McGuire was Berrios' choice.

It will be interesting to see what Montoyo does tonight. Kluber has been tougher on lefties this year, but Dickerson is 5/14 against him. Does Grichuk get the start in RF with Ray and his fly-ball tendencies on the bump? Maybe Gurriel, who is 0/8 since coming back from injury, will sit and Dickerson will DH.

I don't think every SP on the team has requested a personal catcher all of a sudden.

Nor do I - I don't think Ray asks for Kirk or Berrios asks for McGuire. I think Montoyo and Walker have simply been paying attention to how it's gone so far, and have acted accordingly.

I actually wish Matz would say "Anyone but Jansen." Probably not going to happen.

I've noticed [Montoyo] pinch hit for Kirk more than the others, but that might be selective memory on my part.

Probably. Kirk's been pinch hit for 3 times this season (twice in April, and once against Detroit). He's been replaced by a pinch runner at least 7 times (I was only looking at games where he was the starting catcher.)

Jansen's been pinch hit for 6 times, McGuire 14 times. McGuire's also been replaced by a pinch runner 3 times.

If that's so then I stand corrected. Thank you. Then yes indeed, it is fair game to mock the Marlins on this one.

Cot's contracts on BP lists this on Dickerson's entry

acquired by Toronto in trade from Miami 6/29/21 with $4,432,796 remaining on contract (as part of the deal, Marlins paid Blue Jays about $2.65M in cash)

They suggest the Jays are paying about 1.8 million of Dickerson's pro-rated contract, or less than 40%.

I strongly suspect the team is just working with what they have in McGuire, Jansen, and Kirk. When you have 3 catchers you might as well use them with the starters who prefer them unless one of the catchers starts hitting up a storm.

• Jansen is always with Ryu (3.92 ERA vs 5.17 with McGuire, Kirk hasn't caught him).
• McGuire with Berrios (3.04 ERA vs 3.6 with Jansen, 12 with Kirk).
• Ray with Kirk (2.20 ERA vs 3.72 Jansen, 2.93 McGuire).
• Manoah has been a mix and match - 10 with McGuire (3.65 ERA), 7 with Kirk (2.86) and 2 with Jansen (3.97).
• Matz is mostly Jansen (14 games 4.92 ERA) but also a lot with McGuire (10 games 2.64 ERA), and a few with Kirk (5 games 2.05 ERA).

I detest letting McGuire hit, but letting him start with a pitcher who is comfortable with him in Berrios made sense and for 4 innings was amazing. When the wheels came off it was more dumb luck than anything. I'd probably keep going Jansen - Ryu, McGuire - Berrios, Kirk with Ray/Manoah/Matz. They keep trying to do Jansen/Matz lately but it isn't working. Funny how the catcher fielding stats say Kirk is much worse than McGuire and Jansen but the catchers ERA is a completely different story. I read that framing isn't as big a deal now (probably because umpires are far more aware of it and know which catchers are getting the better of them so they probably plan around that now) which changes things a lot. Pitch selection and how well a catcher/pitcher team work together is very hard to measure but appears to be the next great thing for fielding that needs to be checked. Maybe counting how often a pitcher shakes off a catcher as a measure - then factor in how many pitches a pitcher can throw (IE: Ryu will automatically have a lot of shake offs due to his wide variety vs Ray who just has 2 pitches [damn good ones] pretty much).

Thanks for that, John. Those stats go a long way towards explaining the decision-making behind pitcher/catcher combos, and they appear to support the decision to pair Berrios with McGuire. I'm sure the manager discusses this issue with his players and staff and the FO, and that the decision is partly data-driven. It's highly unlikely that an unthinking "hey, it's probably time we gave Reese some work" is the reason McGuire got the start.

Totally agree on the running, but I doubt it is about forgetting the rules. It makes a ton of sense from a cost/benefit perspective to training players to always run and ignore the rule. If they run without thinking about it they gain precious milliseconds getting down the line. If they're running to an occupied base they're always out but expend a little energy and have a minuscule chance of getting hurt.

I detest letting McGuire hit

But...but... but... he's got the highest batting average!

Jansen is the only one swinging a half decent bat at the moment and he's a better defender than Kirk. I expect he'll get the Ryu start, and probably Matz as well. (Me, I'd rather see Jansen get Manoah and have Kirk catch Matz.)

Fun obsessing over who's hitting ninth, no?

Thumbs up on tonight's lineup choices. Kirk catching, Gurriel sitting, Dickerson at DH and Grichuk in the OF. I don't think Gurriel has looked fully fit since returning, so I think this is the best use of bodies in the circumstances.

Outside of Kirk that is about as strong a defensive team as the Jays can put out there. And Kirk has done great with Ray this year so you don't want to mess that up. The offense is also pretty good given Gurriel isn't 100% by any stretch. When your #9 hitter has 22 home runs this year things look good. OPS+ going into tonight for the lineup is 131-136-169-120-135-104-110-102-92. 1-5 are clearly elite hitters, 6-8 solid, #9 OK but nothing to write home about. Jansen at 95 and Gurriel at 114 are the best hitters on the bench. Valera and Biggio are in the 80's, McGuire at 79, and Dyson at 11 (good runner, defense, but geez that bat, FYI: Davis was at 36 when he left, but for the Yankees he was a -51, currently in AAA for the Yankees).

The Jays have hit Kluber pretty well in the past. Here is Kluber's OPS against:

Springer (18 PA) 860
Semien (26 PA) 711
Vladdy (6 PA) 2333
Bichette (7 PA) 1286
Hernandez (4 PA) 250
Dickerson (15 PA) 900
Kirk (2 PA) 2500
Espinal (0 PA) ---
Grichuk (6 PA) 333

Lourdes is 1/5 against him (OPS 400).

OK Robbie Ray. OK Blue Jays.

Let's Go!

(old stats warning)We have FOUR 100+ RBI men. Gurriel and Grichuk both have 80+ RBI. Let's say Springer was injured all year - odds BOTH of them would have had > 100 RBI as well? Lourdes is only 16 away - had he not gotten hurt, conceivably, he could be > 90 right now, a hot finish would get him to 100. Grichuk would need 19 more, so a bit of a stretch - but I think possible, given that Springer / Dickerson / Davis / etc have maybe 60 RBI between them - conceivably Gurriel/Grichuk could have had 33 of those?
That would have been the first team EVER with 6 100+ RBI men. '36 Yankees had 5, and that's it. 4 has been done maybe 10-20 times, 5 once, never 6.

Might not have made for the best overall W-L record (Spring has been a huge boost at times!), but might have set a new record that would be hard-pressed to be beaten for many years to come..

https://youtu.be/nyQNYV-3tNg

If Springer was healthy all year then he might have had 100 RBI's from the leadoff slot (despite the injuries he is on an 80+ RBI pace over a full season). Of course then Gurriel and Grichuk both would've had fewer PA's (100+ fewer each - going to Springer). Next year will be interesting with Springer/Bo/Vlad/Hernandez here for sure, we'll see on Semien and others.

Middle middle out.

VG still not seeing the ball well at all. Missed a hanger and swinging at garbage. Come on man. We need you.

Yeah clutcherson is a badly needed scrappy lefty in this lineup. Nice trade.

Espinal has barely missed a hit a few times in this series.

The Jays badly need Teoscar and Vladdy to heat up. It would help if Kirk regained his hitting mojo, too.

Is Aaron Boone trying to take a page from Baltimore and chirp at Ray? Something's up between him, Montoyo, and the ump.

O's up 2.

I hope Grichuk does *something* to contribute to a win today. It has been painful watching him hit this season.

Support your ace, Blue Jays.

77 pitches thru 5ip.

Top of the Yankees order coming up in the 6th. Huge action inning for Ray coming up.

Would be nice if the boys gave him a cushion heading in tho.

Finally Vladito.



Orioles just went up 5-1 too.

Vlad the Impaler!

Great AB by Vladdy but man do the Yankees have horseshoes this series.

6-1 Orioles.

Umps, man.

HUGE missed strike call there--Changes the whole at-bat and now we're tied.

Umpiring fail. Game-changing fail.

Damn I really do like Rizzo though. I’m hoping his stay as a Yankee is a short one.

This guy’s only called half the high strikes all game.

Time we had some luck.

I need a drink.

Game was getting to close fir comfort for the Evil lovers. Crucial and strategic missed call slants the field. Baseball needs better umpiring.

Sigh....that escalated quickly.

There goes the Cy.

Make that several drinks.

3 innings 3 runs no excuses.

Oh look the ump is giving us even up calls now that he blew the game open.

102mph



Still a prospect.

Scratch. Claw.

Umpire has lost control. Robo umps.

Ray is a bit worn down. Him topping at 95 instead of 97 makes a big difference to how well his stuff plays. Unlike Manoah he doesn’t really have the pitch mix to live at those lower velocities.

Bo begins.

And now, the season comes down to Randal Grichuk, just like we drew it up.

This is a sickening feeling. The Yankees making the postseason every year as a matter of course. The Jays making the postseason every decade or two. Having this chance in 2021 when they are the better team, or were the better team for most of the season, and then falling flat in a massive series when (because Boston has floundered) even two wins would have put them in a great spot.

Improbably, the Jays still have a chance to win the WC2 spot, although they would have to pass or tie both Seattle and Boston in the next three games, for example, by sweeping the O’s while Seattle and Boston win only one or two games of their final series.

That Gardner shot should have had your vodka thru the TV, eephus.

Beating Chapman is gonna be so sweet.

Breyvic seyvus

At least it wasn't a double play.

I think it’s safe to say that Grichuk’s 5/52 contract isn’t working out as planned when, in year 3 of the contract, the manager has to pinch-hit Breyvic Valera for him (against a LHP) in the ninth inning of a critical late-season game.

Umps aside, Ray lost his focus and threw gopher balls and the vaunted lineup cratered again with men on base. They did deserve to lose today.

I guess the long fade out continues through the weekend barring an incredible miracle.

Ray’s start tonight is why I’d be a little nervous with a long term deal. If he loses a tick on his FB, or his command suddenly goes away again, and you don’t know what type of SP you are getting. There is a price point that would make sense but I think he’s already gone past it with his performance this season.

WC2 is still possible but not looking good. This is going to be a long winter because this team was legitimately good enough to make the playoffs this season.

Yeah I think with a little health/luck from our young pitchers and a holding Beurhle year that losing Ray will be recoverable. I think resigning Matz could be a solid move because I don’t think he’s that much worse than Ray going forward and for a fraction of the price. A Berrios, Ryu, Manoah, Pearson, Matz rotation with Hatch and Stripling as 6/7 could be pretty good. And like SK said I want no part of a long term Ray contract. Semien sure but it will be hard to keep him since I think he wants to go back to SS.

Meant to say a holding (Ryu as Beurhle) year. Even when he wasn’t a stud anymore he was still a solid workhorse and could throw some gems. A full offseason to condition and I think Ryu could be a solid 3 WAR again next year.

Odds are low with 2 teams ahead by 1 game and 3 to go. But, on the bright side, the Jays have a young core. Only real risks to lose are Ray, Semien, and Matz. But in 2022 we get (hopefully) 100-140 games out of Springer, a full season from Manoah (10 more starts), a full year of Berrios (15-20 more starts), and go in knowing Romano is the closer rather than doing musical chairs for April (Dolis, Merryweather, etc.) 9 guys had saves this year which I'm fairly confident is a Jays record. Romano didn't get one until May 11th, May 27th his 2nd - 3 in May, 3 in June, 3 in July, 5 in August, 8 in September.

The big question is rotation - set right now are Berrios/Ryu/Manoah/Stripling with the 5th slot wide open for Thornton/Kay (lets hope not), Hatch/Pearson (Jays want one of them at least there), and whatever AAAA guys they sign for AAA who gets a shot in spring to impress. Plus other prospects of course. So Ray or Matz would be nice (then Stripling will be fighting with the kids for the 5th slot) but not critical. Ryu scares me a bit with his collapse for the 2nd year in a row at the end.

OK, other is 2B/3B - Semien would be nice but very expensive ($120 for 3? Maybe). Biggio/Espinal are both nice backups but not ideal as everyday guys. Valera - heck no. Smith? He'll get a shot. Otto Lopez will be given a shot too, as will Samad Taylor I figure. Jordan Groshans is a guy the Jays have high hopes for - over the last 90 days (41 games, July 3rd to end of AA season) he hit 324/404/472 which is a very good sign.

Hrm. Need to stop thinking about 2022 when we have 3 more games left. Weirder things have happened - if the Jays win all 3, and the O's and Mariners win 2 of 3, while the Yankees lose all 3 vs the Rays we get a 4 way tie which would be lots of fun/tension. It could happen. Not often you have that possible with 3 games to go. Jays go 2-1, O's 1-2, Seattle 1-2 3 way tie, Jays 1-2 then we need O's and Mariners to lose all 3 this weekend which lands under very unlikely but possible. So no matter what the Jays will still be alive on Saturday and it won't take much for Sunday to matter. Nice change from 2017/18/19 and 1994-2014. Painful with losses like todays but this sure beats all of those seasons even though they had Halladay and/or Delgado quite often on the team, or Rocket Roger (dang was that fun watching him beat the Red Sox and have a year for the ages in '97). Nothing as fun as a real pennant race outside of being in the playoffs of course. And this team is built to do this again next year even if we lose all 3 big Free Agents.

If TO sweeps Baltimore I think they'll tie for the last wild card position. Boston is not that good and neither is Seattle. With the Jays the talent is there -- now we just need to pair it with a little bit of luck.

I got to admit I turned off the game after the 7th inning. After watching the Leafs mess up their last 5 playoff series, I can't handle the teams I cheer for losing important games anymore. It was a bitter loss considering it was the Yankees on the other side.

I was totally against Kevin Cash taking Blake Snell out of the game in the World Series last year, even though he was cruising, to avoid the third time through the order. Maybe it is the right move in certain situations though. Imagine the howling if Montoya had done that last night, but could the bullpen have held the lead? It's easy to play the game in retrospect but I was thinking," Get him out of there, Charlie!" after Ray gave up the two home runs and then a walk.

With Boston playing so poorly, Seattle playing over their heads and the Jays playing Baltimore, it's easy to imagine a three way tie as of tonight.

The Jays could never recover from the games given away by players like Rafael Dolis. Too much leash given by Montoyo. I hope he and management learn from this.

Robbie Ray had a great season, but the gods have been smiling on him also.  His ERA was almost a run better than his expected ERA.  Here's the current Blue Jay pitching leaderboard.  It might be a shock to see Nate Pearson ahead of Robbie Ray.  In hindsight (and maybe in foresight), Pearson was likely a better bet to take on Judge, Stanton and Torres in the 6th inning.  He had the platoon advantage and Ray has faded the third time through the order both this year and over his career (opponents hitting .298/.333/.597 this year and .291/.360/.550 over his career).

I agree that the Jays might not recover from all the regular-season losses that should have been wins (the words “two-strike bunt,” “Chatwood,” “Dolis,” and “Semien throw to first” encapsulate some of those games).

Two things, though:

1. the season isn’t over yet

2. the Yankees and Red Sox have also had their share of appalling losses this year (for example, think of some of their games against Baltimore and how they lost those games)

It will be interesting to see how Montoyo plays his starters over the last 3 games. He’s seen 3 games in a row that starters have started very strong and then faded quickly in the middle innings. With the emergence of Pearson and Merryweather, he now may have 6 reliable relievers to play with. Pearson in particular can help his hand in one of the last 2 games by going multiple innings. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pulling the guys early. They are all looking tired, except May be the youngster Manoah.

Mike, you may be right, but can you imagine taking your ace out of a 80-pitch one-hitter in the final stages of a pennant race? For Nate Pearson of all people?

Maybe that’s why the Rays often pull their starters after five innings, even when they seem to be cruising. They remove the emotional “Ray has earned the opportunity to pitch the sixth” type of sentimental thinking.

it's not sentiment

he's our best pitcher, no way we could have pulled off what the rays do this year

Jobu no likey those 6oz bottles of island swill

some reserva exclusiva from diplomatico might be in order

That's why I admire the Rays so much - They have a plan and generally stick to it even after all the old time baseball writers ripped them during last year's playoff.

The correct move was to have somebody up and warming at the start of the inning, and for Ray to get yanked after walking Stanton. Montoyo let the game get away from the Jays by not being prepared. Hard to blame the manager when the team scores two runs, though.

Pinch hitting for Grichuk against a lefty down 4 runs in the 9th but not in the 6th down 3 runs with a runner on base against a righty was typical Montoya managing.

The Dolis, Chatwood memories are hard but the team has 18 blown saves, 3 each for Mayza and Richards (both key setup guys), 2 for Saucedo, then 10 guys with 1 each. So not a lot of blown lead chances given to guys who sucked. Just a variety getting those chances due to the mess the pen was due to injuries. Remember, the plan going in was Yates/Phelps/Dolis/Borucki/Chatwood/Romano - 3 on the IL for the vast majority of the season, 2 had to be released they did so poorly, and one became a very solid closer.

Looking back I see we had expected to see Kay, Borucki, Liriano, Mayza, Castro, Chatwood, Cole, Phelps, and Romano in the pen with Dolis and Yates. 11 guys for 9 slots. Forgot about Liriano - he didn't play for anyone this year. Of those 11 only Mayza and Romano worked well. Borucki, Castro, Kay, and Phelps had moments as did Dolis and Chatwood but most are not around now to help.

So for the final days the Jays now count on Romano, Mayza, Cimber (trade), Richards (trade), Pearson (demoted from rotation due to injuries), Merryweather (no one every counted on him, but he might be good going forward) with Barnes getting the 'break glass if needed' slot (ie: blow out one way or the other).

It's definitely sentimental thinking re: keeping Ray in the game. He did the same thing with Ryu when Ryu clearly did not have anything against the O's, yet Montoyo let him face another batter, made the deficit bigger, and then finally pulled him. It's one of the reasons why I don't really care about the narrative that he's good with handling players.

The Rays have a method to their madness. Some times it fails, most of the time it works, but they don't deviate from it. Most of the players seem to buy in to that, so it works for them. The Jays have a manager who will keep SP's in the game long enough to give up leads because they "earned the right to go deeper into games", or let star players play 162 games rather than give them periodic rest, or use RP's in high leverage spots because they used to be good in the past or he wants to show confidence in them, etc, etc. Those are traits that players will generally respect about a manager, but they don't necessarily mesh with winning games on the field. The key is to strike a balance between keeping the clubhouse happy while also having a manager who knows what he's doing out there. The Jays have a manager who only seems to do one of those things well (and we are just assuming since it's not quantifiable what happens behind closed doors).

It's probably a moot point since I don't expect the Jays to get rid of Charlie, on the contrary I actually expect them to extend him, but hopefully it's something they look into. Montoyo is a fine manager for a rebuilding team, and certainly for a minor league team (probably where he should be), but he's not built for the level the Jays want to be at.

Not sure it's sentimental.

The question is whether you want Ray to face those guys more than most of your relievers.

...and the answer to that question is probably still a resounding yes, even in retrospect.

Yeah I think with a little health/luck from our young pitchers and a holding Beurhle year that losing Ray will be recoverable. I think resigning Matz could be a solid move because I don’t think he’s that much worse than Ray going forward and for a fraction of the price. A Berrios, Ryu, Manoah, Pearson, Matz rotation with Hatch and Stripling as 6/7 could be pretty good. And like SK said I want no part of a long term Ray contract. Semien sure but it will be hard to keep him since I think he wants to go back to SS.

If anything, the success of Semien and Ray has probably made players notice Toronto as a FA destination. Two players who bet on themselves, took pillow contracts with the Jays despite not knowing where the team was going to play most of their home games, and put up MVP/Cy Young calibre seasons with a young team on the rise.

Even if Ray and Semien sign elsewhere, I think the Jays are a real FA option now even for players looking for pillow contracts, whereas in the past that might have not been the case, especially for SP's. Not sure which FA's fit that bill aside from Syndergaard (not sure any team is giving up a pick for one year of a SP who hasn't pitched in two seasons), but I'm sure an option or two will present itself. I'm not too concerned if the Jays lose Ray, but they'll have to aim higher than re-signing Matz.

To a point, but anyone could see that the wheels were falling off after Ray gave up two home runs and then the walk to Stanton. A tiring pitcher, even a very good one, is usually no better than a fresh arm out of the bullpen,( if he is a decent pitcher) plus the batter will be seeing a different style of pitching in most cases.

Like greenfrog said "the season is not over yet". So we could win 90 games which I realistically did not expect. My prediction would have been 92 wins. I like to be kind and over hopeful.

Very nice look back John N. I expected more from Springer, the kid pitchers and the pen.

Never expected Manoah, Ray, Semien, Vlad to play as well as they did. Also not expecting 4 100 RBI players. I checked some strong offensive teams for number of 100 RBI players just to see if the 4 for the Jays is special.

Houston 1, NYY 0 so far, CWS 1, Boston 1, LAA 0 so far. SF 0, LAD 0, Milwaukee 0, ST Louis 1 so far.

My conclusion is the Jays win with 4. Very special indeed.

Montoyo wasn't prepared for the sudden disaster? True, I guess. But you don't generally assume that a pitcher who is dominating the opposition is going to lose it all at once (Ray had retired 12 in a row coming into that fateful inning and got the first man). In fact, I was the one who was relieved when he walked Stanton (I suspected it was semi-intentional.)

I'm assuming then that you would have had a reliever getting loose at the beginning of the inning? You sure can't manage like that all year, but it is late September.

OK Blue Jays. Tonight, a couple of touchdowns will make us feel better.

I was at the game and Ray did not feel in control or like he was dominating. There were several loud out and fly balls to the warning track. Ray was also down 2+ mph from his normal self. Many 93s, a few 94s. That’s a big difference from sitting 95 and hitting 97 in key spots

There may have been an unspoken incentive at play. If Montoyo had pulled Ray and his replacement (say, Pearson) got shelled, Montoyo would have been subjected to heavy criticism. In this case, the conventional move (leaving Ray in until he got hit around) was probably the safer career move for the manager.

He was also quoted as saying he had trouble getting his slider over so they started sitting on his fastball. I also noted he was going up in the zone a lot and getting very inconsistent calls from the ump who seemed to like balls lower in the zone.

Still they have to score more than 2 runs. I thought all Kluber had some hangers earlier in the game that they couldn’t convert and then he settled in. The yankees on the other hand didn’t seem to miss the gifts they were given.