But I don't think we'll fall into it.
The other day, I believe that I saw Dante Bichette behind the batting practice cage when Bo was hitting.
The 2005 Arizona Diamondbacks featured the "G-Force" with Luis Gonzalez, Troy Glaus, & Shawn Green.
Stripling activated. Smith to AAA.
Neither Biggio nor Espinal is close to a return.
Not a lot of time to come back from one bad inning.
Other than that, we got Ryu on regular rest.
Another option I see for Sunday is Mike Baumann.
I'm sure they'll recall someone for the second header too, probably a pitcher.
Matt Harvey was replaced on the roster by UT Richie Martin.
Akin, Lowther and Wells are lefties, but they only have 2 in the pen.
Springer back at DH?
Lamb at 3B.
Dyson gets a start in center. Don't get upset if he bunts.
Robbie Ray has a decent chance at the Cy Young if he gets the win tonight: he's ahead of Cole in ERA and quality starts, and should move ahead in strikeouts tonight. Right now Cole's advantage in record (14-7 vs 11-5) is the biggest thing keeping him a favourite, and narrowing the win gap would be a significant help.
Let’s hope it fires the boys up
White Sox beating Boston 3-0 (Abreu just hit a three-run HR)
That seemed to surprise Gurriel, which makes one think Lamb did it on his own. And isn't Montoya a NASCAR driver?
Kind of pining for Breyvic Valera these days, which is extremely disturbing.
I thought Buck said they'd like a low leverage situation for Merryweather and Tabler basically said there's no such thing in September.
Kirk was set up for a fastball at the bottom of the zone, and that's what Merryweather threw. Maybe they forgot the scouting report.
The woulda shoulda coulda game is a slippery one. The Jays' 2-run inning was also predicated on stuff that should not have happened. Jones should have not tried to get the 2nd out of the inning at third base, not with a 3-run lead. And if he did, he should have made a good throw. The Orioles should not have failed to score a run in the 2nd inning with a man on third and nobody out.
Deconstruct a game and the knife cuts both ways.
-Tied for the WC in the loss column
-Most games still to play (they control their fate)
-Springer, Stripling, Pearson, Merryweather back from the IL
-Wander Franco has been placed on the IL and may be unavailable for the Jays’ games against TB. The Red Sox have had a bunch of players on the COVID IL. And the Yankees have temporarily lost Cole and Taillon
It’s going to be a close race, though.
Agreed on Valera, Magpie. It’s amazing because a few weeks ago we didn’t want to see him in the lineup, but he’s shown more utility when given the opportunity lately. Taking a chance on Lamb’s pop is a good idea for a bad team or one that has secured a playoff spot, but it’s hard to work a new guy into the lineup and show the proper patience when you desperately need results now. Thankfully there hasn’t been too much important action at the hot corner since Espinal got hurt, it feels like it’s been just 2-3 fairly routine plays a game.
They wanted to throw him in there against a lefty to get him going.
Today, everybody should get into the action.
Springer has not look anywhere near 100% to me.
Ryu is on regular rest and came out with a stiff arm last time.
I would be very careful with him here.
In 16 PA, he's hitting .000/.250/.000 with a 31.3 K%. He also has below-average defense during that span. He's posted -0.2 WAR in total.
That being said, the exact same thing was true of Valera and then he started hitting a bit.
Also, conveniently, the combined projections say that both Lamb and Valera are both likely to hit for a below average but not awful identical 93wrc+ going forward.
It also helps that Lamb looks extremely comfortable at the hot corner.
He's definitely the ghost of hitting past. Being a left-hand hitting third baseman has bought him chances, but those would appear to be soon done. The game is a cruel mistress.
The knife should cut against the Orioles more often than not. That's why they are where they are.
My point was that any deconstruction focuses on micro aspects of a given game. What if this play had been made? What if that pitch hadn't been thrown? What if that throw had been cut off? What if the relief pitcher were not such a mindless oak to have bodychecked a base runner? Last night's game had plenty of what ifs to go around even if one team was markedly better than the other.
Baltimore is where they are more because of macro failures that don't invite deconstruction. They can't hit (14th). And they can't pitch (15th). And they can't field (13th in defensive efficiency). The what ifs don't quite work at that level.
With respect to 3B, I'm willing to give Biggio a mulligan on this year, because he's pretty clearly never been healthy. However, that's also why I put little stock (or hope) in the suggestion he may be back in late September. For this year's playoff push, it looks like Espinal or bust.
- Biggio to be the regular, 84 sOPS+ injured
- Panik #1 sub, 49 sOPS+, traded for Adam Cimber, and Corey Dickerson and cash (also sent Andrew McInvale to Miami who has a near 6 ERA for them in AA in relief) - Panik has a 34 OPS+ since the trade so yeah, that was a very, very good trade.
- Espinal #2 sub, 102 sOPS+ now on IL
- Kevin Smith, prospect called up, 11 sOPS+
- Breyvic Valera, almost a panic get off waivers - 104 sOPS+
- Jake Lamb, who knows why - off waivers, not qualified for playoffs, -53 sOPS+ so far.
- Vlad got in 1 game and was 0 for 1 while at 3B.
Jays odds: 45.7%, 3rd best of wild card contenders. Up 0.2% from yesterday, but down from 51.8% the day before.
Using Season to Date stats: Jays odds jump to 57.2%, 2nd best of contenders (Yankees drop to 36.1%)
Using coin flip: 35.8%
Interesting.
Speaking of Ryu, he has a 4.45 ERA since June. Up to 4.82 over that span with his 2 innings factored in today, and he's still pitching so it might get worse. Something to keep an eye on.
At least Ryu will be on extra rest next time.
This is two games in a row when Charlie brings in pitchers who haven’t pitched in a long time to keep the score close.
This is a season ending game, possibly. 10 runs against and counting. I can’t believe in 2021 the Rays former assistant manager leaves Ryu in for 7 runs, then goes to Stripling fresh of the IL, then warms up Pearson.
The Jays go up against the Rays next and will be lucky if they come away with 1 win.
There is an old school response for those times when you think the opposition has the catcher's signs. Call for the breaking ball low and away but throw the fastball up and in. Might be a little too old school.
If they're all on deck and in form we might have an average bullpen by the time the playoffs roll around, but that's best case.
We do have a nice rotation tho.
We’ll see how the Yankees and Red Sox do tonight.
Also, the Jays game is somehow not over yet. Top 6, one on, none out.
It's also good that they didn't need to use Cimber, Richards, Mayza, and Soria with what could be a bullpen game to follow.
For Lamb the previous inning tho...
Ryu didn't have it but they let him battle and it would not have been a close game if Stripling had been sharper.
Eh just let your team play and you should beat lesser trash
Unrelatedly, the MASN announcing crew is new this year and I like them. I really didn’t care for the old group, that has included Jim hunter and Jim Palmer. These guys are much better.
Ok. Not really.
Oakland lost
Seattle is losing
Yankees are losing
Boston is tied 8-8 with Chicago
I turned on gameday in time to see that Hernandez didn't quite feel that things were quite done.
Martinez and Tabler didn't notice either, not until they saw the replay. Are they at the ballpark?
The Jays now tied for 2WC with Yankees and 2 wins and 0 loses behind Boston for 1WC. I think there chances are pretty good.
Boston's is a bit easier than the Toronto's but they are a hard bunch to predict.
The good news is that they may be able to grab the first wild card and host the game.
The bad news is that the wild card winner will go against the division winner with the best record which will be the Rays.
That was a great come back. Best inning in franchise history.
Would be nice if they scored early today.
Then the *non-clutch* Jays do this:
"They are the first team in Major League Baseball history to hit a go-ahead home run while trailing in the final scheduled inning of both games of a doubleheader, according to ESPN Stats & Info."
Also, rewatched the highlights this morning, such fun. Didn't realize Guerrero broke up a no hitter in the 2nd game to kickstart a...checks notes in still disbelief...11 run, 4 hr final inning. Random observation from just seeing the highlights: The Orioles hit a lot of pitches at the edge of the zone very hard to score their 10 runs. Not sure they were "bad pitches" from Ryu and Stripling, except that neither was apparently fooling opposing hitters whatsoever. Oh, and it was very obvious that Pat and Buck were announcing from watching a screen somewhere...sort of a 1/2 second delay on reactions as they figured it out. Not usually one of their issues.
1:05 - Toronto (Steven Matz) vs. Baltimore (Zac Lowther)
2:10 - Boston (Nick Pivetta) vs. Chicago White Sox (Lance Lynn)
2:15 - Cincinnati (Sonny Gray) vs. St. Louis (J.A. Happ)
4:07 - Texas (Taylor Hearn) vs. Oakland (James Kaprielian)
4:10 - Arizona (Tyler Gilbert) vs. Seattle (Yusei Kikuchi)
4:10 - San Diego (Blake Snell) vs. LA Dodgers (Max Scherzer)
8:08 - NY Yankees (TBD) vs. NY Mets (Carlos Carrasco)
That being said, my personal preference would be to see Dyson PR and attempt a steal. There are times where an attempted steal is warranted (perhaps not last night) and the Jays don't budge. They are pretty effective at swiping bags, but Bichette and Semien's numbers suggest a little bit more risk can be taken at times. Bo probably takes pride in that % and doesn't want to go unless it's a sure thing. The only time he was caught this year, just barely, was trying for 3rd on a 2 strike pitch to Vlad.
Picture being in the shoes of said Dr. Heckle. He has won 34% of his games in his three years as a manager. He is very likely to be out of job in a few weeks and not land on anyone's A-list. He is a tactician of dubious merit, though this is largely moot given that he has been armed mainly with AAA "talent".
That he hasn't been jawing more at opposition players is a surprise, let alone being seen openly drinking from a paper bag in the dugout.
HOU 88-53 +2.5
TBR 88-54 +0.5
TOR 86-56 ---
CHW 84-58 -2.0
OAK 78-64 -8.0
BOS 77-67 -10.0
NYY 74-68 -12.0
CLE 68-72 -17.0
DET 66-77 -20.5
SEA 65-77 -21.0
Never forget, the only race we should actually be in right now is a very tight race for 1st.
I don't think they've ever pinch run for Grichuk. The bunt's a safer play - you're not nearly as likely to lose the base runner - and you've still got Dyson available to run for Kirk or Gurriel next inning. Dyson's still pretty fast for 37, but he's not the nearly automatic successful steal he used to be.
1. 2015 117
2. 2021 113
3. 1993 109
2021 vs 2015 vs 1993
Guerrero 170 --- Donaldson 154 ----- Olerud 179
Springer 144 --- Encarnacion 150 --- Molitor 144
Semien 138 ----- Bautista 148 ------ Alomar 142
Teoscar 133 ---- Colabello 143 ----- White 109
Kirk 133 ----------- Travis 136 -------- Carter 108
Bichette 118 ----- Martin 115 -------- Fernandez 100
Gurriel 108 ------ Tulowitzki 101 ---- Henderson 92
Espinal 103 ------ Revere 98 --------- Sprague 85
Dickerson 96 ----- Pillar 94 --------- Borders 72
Lamb 96 -------- Smoak 108 --------- Coles 85
Grichuk 92 ----- Carrera 90 -------- Ward 59
Biggio 82 ------ Goins 85 ---------- Griffin 25
Jansen 92 ------ Navarro 84 -------- Knorr 98
Dyson 50 ------- Pompey 82 --------- Jackson 56
Valera 68 ------ Pennington 57 ----- Schofield 49
McGuire 86 ----- Thole 33 ---------- ???
Min 50pa
1. Soto 756pa, 169wrc+, 6.4war650
2. Tatis 721pa, 158wrc+, 7.5war650
3. Guerrero 855pa, 153wrc+, 5.0war650
4. Kirk 184pa, 137wrc+, 4.2war650
5. Franco 271pa, 126wrc+, 5.3war650
I imagine Springer and Kirk could pinch-hit later in the game if need be. With luck, that won't be necessary.
I think Manoah, Berrios and Ray are good SP choices for the Rays series starting tomorrow.
Yeah, no mystery this year. When a team's actual W-L record doesn't match up with their Pythagorean projection, it's because of either a) weird results in one-run games or b) weird results in blowouts, or c) a combination of the two. The 2021 Jays have a perfectly reasonable 14-15 record in one-run games. They're very, very good in the blowouts (26-12) and they really, really pile on the additional runs. It makes me curious, to investigate just how many excessive runs they've scored (need to define excessive, etc.) compared to the other teams....
In a 4-inning span, yesterday and today, they scored 27 runs in 4 innings. I wonder if such a thing has ever been done by anybody?
It's not clear that Orioles in-game pitching is as difficult to hit as Blue Jay batting practice pitching. If any batting practice pitchers are thinking of resigning, the Jays could grab a bunch of resumes from the Orioles' dugout.
And still rising, maybe.
Guerrero could potentially add his name to that list, triple crown winners who did not win the MVP. Ohtani will rightfully win the AL MVP, and Guerrero may not even be the best player on his own team. That said, I think he'll finish second in the MVP race and even get some first place votes should the Jays land in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, good friend Teoscar may be a fly in the triple crown ointment on the RBI front. "Sorry bro, you just keep getting on base in front of me."
Cleveland still without a hit through 5 innings today.
Mike Green deserves a big mea culpa here from many of us, myself included, who were not convinced that Jansen was in fact a major league hitter (I mean he did give us many reasons to doubt him).
As others have mentioned, you get offense from Gurriel and the catchers, and you have Springer in the lineup, now you've got an elite offense.
The ten homers and 53 total bases came in an 18-3 win over an awful (67-95) Orioles team in September 1987. I seem to remember listening to this one on the radio - it was a Monday night, the game wouldn't have been televised. Ernie Whitt hit three, Rance Mullinks and George Bell both hit two, and Fred McGriff, Lloyd Moseby, and Rob Ducey had one apiece. It was Ducey's first MLB homer.
Oh, I think that was mostly me, me, me! And you're right, he did provide many reasons. I was, after all, in the habit of naming various NL pitchers who were having better seasons with the bat. I like to think I was challenging him....
Lou Gehrig. Chuck Klein. Ted Williams.
Klein and Williams both finished second in the voting - Klein hit .368 with 28 HR and 120 RBI, and both the homers and RBIs were considerably less than his previous few years. It actually looked like a bit of a down year for him. And his team finished seventh in an eight team league. So Carl Hubbell (23-12, 1.66) won the award for the first place Giants.
Ted was the runner-up in 1941, when he hit .406 (Joe DiMaggio, the streak) and he was the runner-up again the foloowing year, when his Triple Crown wasn't enough to beat out Joe Gordon. Man. Gordon was a great player having a very good season. But still....
As for Gehrig, he finished fifth in the MVP vote after hitting .363 with 49 HR and 166 RBIs in 1934. Fifth!! Because Lou Gehrig never got any respect, and the Yankees finished second. He was behind three Tigers (MVP Mickey Cochrane, Charlie Gehringer, and Schoolboy Rowe) and his own teammate Lefty Gomez.
Jays are now 13 runs ahead of the Astros, only 18 behind the Rays, and up to a 115wrc+.
Lamb to the slaughter.
I mean, if you can't use him now, then when?
That's basically what happened.
I'm not sure what he's trying to do, but narrow down is arsenal, repeat his delivery, doesn't not seem part of it.
Meanwhile the Jays are honing in on the record for a 3 game series... 47 runs. They are now at 44. I hope they aren't tiring themselves out....some have 6 at bats.
And yeah they certainly are back in the "elite offence" category. Hope it keeps up.
Now the pitching has to catch up. Then we are a good team for a few years.
Craig Kimbrel gives it back.
They got Ryu, Manoah, Berrios, Stripling, Hatch and Pearson for next year.
Quite a few middle relievers. Just need to replace the pieces they lose every year.
Eventually, an infielder will rise up to claim 3B.
And boom, we're tied for first WC.
Boston's bullpen is in bad shape, and they fly across the country to play 3 in Seattle starting tomorrow.
*12 at home and 7 on the road
*10 against teams 2 of the 3 worst teams in the AL
*9 against Rays and Yankees, but 6 are at home
I guess now he's in the big league.
What's the logic behind the rule that would prevent Lamb from being on the playoff roster?
It's an ancient rule - I don't know how old, but it was definitely in effect back in 1920 (when Brooklyn graciously allowed Joe Sewell to play in the World Series - he'd taken over at shortstop after Ray Chapman was killed, but wouldn't normally have been eligible for the Series.)
It's possible that the thinking back then may have had something to do with bad teams selling their best players for cash, which used to happen all the time back in the day.
I assume that something must have happened, in the years between 1903 and 1920, that caused them to put such a rule in place. I don't know what or when or why, and that makes me crazy!
Brad Hand is back safely in the bosom of the NL. He has a 0.00 ERA for the Mets in 4.1 innings.
He's at the Athletic these days, and I'm sure this weekend will come up.
Ernie was the one who hit the record-breaking 9th HR, and he reported that the HOF asked for his bat. He was glad to donate to counter the one piece of Ernie-memorabilia there, which was because he had made the final out in Len Barker’s perfect game against the Jays.
Also… the comments about Jayson Stark: lots of bizarre stats out of this weekend, but I haven’t yet seen any count of how often Buck-n-Tabby raved about “these guys never quit… no quit in this team… resilient…” and variations. Best expressed in Tabby’s purrrring voice.
Glad to see Jansen turning things around. He always hit in the minors and looked good early in the majors so his lack of offense has been a surprise. A Jansen and Kirk duo looks pretty pretty good at C.
Obviously he played in a different era from 1969-1983 and put up an impressive 47 bWAR over his career, mostly from his offense, as BBRef evaluates him as a slightly below average catcher defensively for his career. He also interestingly started over 40% of his games at 1B, so he wasn't a pure catcher.
Tenace has an impressive 1:1 BB:K ratio for his career with a batting line of 241/388/429, OPS .817 and OPS+ 136.
It's also interesting that Tenace demonstrated a fair amount of HR power with 5 separate 20 HR seasons, but seemingly a lower than expected .429 career SLG%.
I hadn't realized that Jansen more-or-less showed an even BB:K ratio in the minors. His MLB career line off 77 BBs to 167 Ks is a little under 1:2, which is decent but will make it very difficult to match Tenace's batting eye and even moreso in the modern environment.
It similarly seems unrealistic to hope that Jansen could put up a ~130 OPS+ going forward like Tenace could.
However, I do agree that with some better BABIP luck and some improved walk rates, it is possible to squint to imagine Jansen putting up a modern-day poor man's Tenace line looking something like 235/325/415, which would certainly play as an everyday starting catcher on this team.
Sullen-Stanton Cam is a good addition to the broadcast after what went on earlier.
All four of the Jays’ competitors (Oak, Sea, Bos, NYY) lost by one run today.
They will end the year on the road going Boston-Tampa-Toronto.
Manfred's made a lot of noise about pace of play. But until he implements a strict pitch clock and somehow forces batters to stay in the box between pitches, I'm just not taking him seriously about that.
teams in September. OPS by player... Gurriel: 1.419; Jansen 1.398, Hernandez: 1.291; Semien 1.247; Kirk 1.227; Vlad 1.1116 (slacker); Grichuk 993; Valera 948; Bo 946; Lamb 735; Springer 699; Dickerson 445; Dyson 333; Smith and McGuire are 0-13 with an RBI (Sac Fly) combined.
Nice lineup so far over 12 games.
Percentage of hits that go for extra bases.
FYI: Milwaukee should be the first to clinch a division title with a magic number of 5 (Cincinnati and St Louis). White Sox have a magic of 9 (Cleveland). Right now the Jays, if they won the wild card game, would play Tampa in the Division Series (ugh).
Vlad, Bo and Teoscar are showing that they are very good. Gurriel is also V good but very streaky. They are playing smarter baseball now. This is Vlad and Bo's 1st full season. Gurriel did not have to go down. Teoscar is the finished product now.
The rotation got lucky this year with Ray and Manoah. Matz is having his best season. Then Atkins getting Berrios adds to a strong rotation.
The pen was terrible. It is ok now possibly because the rotation is not overtaxing them.
So basically the core of this team has proved that they can handle every team except TB. They get the chance to handle TB now.
In 1991, the thirteen games played averaged 277 pitches in 173 minutes. That's 1.60 pitches per minute.
The fifteen games played yesterday averaged 292 pitches in 194 minutes, which is 1.51 pitches per minute.
All told, yesterday we had 15 more pitches per game, which lasted an extra 21 minutes. The extra length is caused by the combination of the two, each roughly equal in importance - it's more pitches, with a bit more time between each.
Individual games vary widely, of course. Yankees-Mets was unbearably slow, Jays-Orioles was remarkably quick. Jays-Orioles had the most pitches of any yesterday's games (377), but it was a blowout from the start and everyone got on with it - 1.83 pitches per minute, which is positively brisk. Yankees-Mets was a close game til the end, had lots of pitches (336, third highest of the day), and proceeded at a snail's pace (just 1.37 pitches per minute, the slowest pace of any of the 58 games I happened to look at.
"Rule 6.02(b) Comment: The batter leaves the batter’s box at the risk of having a strike delivered and called, unless he requests the umpire to call “Time.” The batter is not at liberty to step in and out of the batter’s box at will. Once a batter has taken his position in the batter’s box, he shall not be permitted to step out of the batter’s box in order to use the resin or the pine tar rag, unless there is a delay in the game action or, in the judgment of the umpires, weather conditions warrant an exception."
Most pitchers aren't Dolis and want to work quickly. If they got the ball back and the hitter was ready, the game would move MUCH quicker.
The fifteen games played yesterday averaged 292 pitches in 194 minutes, which is 1.51 pitches per minute.
I've done these calculations for a few years. I call it "Pitch Pace"....literally number of pitches in the game, divided by the length of the game in minutes. I've found that in recent years the average is around 1.60 or so, but usually faster in the past.
Even nowadays you can get some games up over 1.70. The Jays Orioles game yesterday was 1.83, which is the fastest number I've seen, actually. I've found that if games are 1.65 pitches/min or more, especially if 1.7 or more, the game feels like it has decent pace. Some games drop into the low 1.50s, and some are even like 1.45. Those are a slog.
The other issue, as you point out, is the number of pitches in a game. A game with 340 pitches will take longer than one with 285. The average number of pitches for a non-extra inning game this year is about 293, and a lot of games are over 300. Well back in the past this number was more like 250, 260...another reason games are longer now (and complete games rarer).
The higher pitch counts now seem to be almost entirely due to more foul balls and swing and misses. More balls put in play will not only be more exciting to watch, it'll resolve at bats more quickly and the games will move faster.