This feels like a big series even though I think the jays chances of making the post-season are realistically quite small. Still, I'm excited.

Ryu on an extra day of rest.

Imagine where we would be without Manoah right now.  His ridiculously quick ascent has been huge.

Boom.

BOOM.

Trying to send a message and set tonw in the firat? Qorks for me.

Dickerson in C in Yankee Stadium is a brave choice. On the whole, I think it makes sense to get his and Gurriel’s bat in the game.

I honestly can’t think of a worse base runner in Jays history than Gurriel.

Has Danny changed his stance? Looks more stable and balanced.

He looks more upright.

I honestly can’t think of a worse base runner in Jays history than Gurriel.

Hmmm ....

From my memory (no stats consulted) candidates:
Alfredo Griffin
George Bell
Yunel Escobar

Yes to Escobar, absolutely. That’s a winner (loser). Like his fielding, I remember Bell as an excellent base runner to start his career and that he deteriorated with age. I really don’t remember Griffin’s base running as being terrible other than it looked like he should be able to steal bases but he just couldn’t.

I was at a game at the Dome when Bengie Molina hit a rocket into the right field corner and was thrown out at 2nd by a good 5 metres. As soon as we saw him make the turn, my friends and I knew he was toast. Anecdotal, true, but there's plenty of company at the bottom.

There are a ton of players who were ridiculously slow, far far slower than Gurriel. Moline is a good example. I was meaning a poor base runner in terms of poor judgment/instincts etc.

Griffin was a funny one - he was generally viewed as a smart ballplayer who knew a LOT but he was caught stealing a LOT, made a lot of errors, did a lot of stuff you wouldn't expect a 'baseball smart' guy to do yet he was thought of that way - had to be as otherwise his non-existent bat would've been out of baseball early on.

I seem to remember Emilio Bonifacio being a frustrating runner to watch, though it’s possible that perception is coloured by just how dreadful he was overall as a Blue Jay.

As far as slow guys, it’s hard (or easy, rather) to beat Bengie, though late career Frank Thomas rumbling station to station on the bases has to be as close as you get.

Well, Molina certainly didn't show off any baserunning smarts in the play I related.

Griffin was a funny one - he was generally viewed as a smart ballplayer

Not exactly - not at all a smart ballplayer. But a very smart guy.

I was at a game at the Dome when Bengie Molina hit a rocket into the right field corner

It was against Washington, and the right fielder - I think it was Jose Guillen? - was playing him in the gap, so he had run and run and run to fetch the ball in the corner. The play still wasn't close. It was one of the strangest things I've ever seen in a ballpark. He didn't fall down or anything, he wasn't dogging it out of the box. This was really as fast as he could go.

As a baserunner, Griffin was notorious for wild, insane gambles that actually worked out far more often than they had any right to work at all. Probably not often enough to make it worth while, definitely not smart percentage ball. But loads of fun. And certainly, he did unsettle the other team.

Frank Thomas rumbling station to station on the bases has to be as close as you get.

And Buck Martinez himself, in his final season - a 37 year old catcher, in his 17th season, coming back after a serious broken leg? Oh man, he was slow.

Bengie wouldn't have been able to catch him, but it would have been close.

Add-in runs would be helpful right about now.

* Add-on

Huge DP induced by Ryu there.

Ryu looks really sharp today.

Bonifacio is a good shout. I recall being frustrated by him on the bases repeatedly.

You be the manager. Bottom 7, Judge/Stanton/Rizzo coming up for the Yankees. Stick with Ryu (who is around 80 pitches)? Or bring in Cimber/Richards?

I think I would stay with Ryu as long as possible, then run with my highest-leverage relievers in (hopefully) the eighth and/or ninth.

*Clutch* hit by the torrid LGJ.

I seem to recall that Tony Fernandez had a reckless side, too often gambling on potential triples. Could just be my faulty memory, though.

Chuck - I remember that too - Loved Fernandez but man did he drive me nuts on the bases.

I don't know why we are pulling Ryu at this juncture. He could have gone 2 more innings.

I think it was 1988 or 1990? He got thrown oit st 3rd a lot.  Not sure where to look for those stats now

While most of the time I'd want the starter to stay in I get pulling Ryu here. He has had trouble his final inning lately it seems, so better an inning too soon than one too late.

It worked out against Judge.

And Stanton.

Judge and Stanton had to be what Montoyo was thinking about, and getting the platoon advantage. And maybe Ryu's last start going to hell in a huge hurry.

I agree with UO on this one. 80 pitches on 6 days is too early to pull Ryu.

He wasn’t as sharp overall in the 5th and 6th, but he still hit his spots when he needed to.

It "worked" but I still don't like it. Pulling a guy throwing a 2hit shutout on 80 pitches just means we're burning a bullpen arm or two in game 1 of the series.

Ugh. I jist lost eveything id been typing because of mobile browsee refresh. Kendrys Morales -14.8 runs in 280 gp

I would have left him in but Richards executed in an important inning in a must-win game. Decent call by Montoyo. And the Jays need Ryu to be strong for at least another month (hopefully longer). It’s OK to leave some gas in the tank.

I seem to recall that Tony Fernandez had a reckless side

Tony made many more outs on the bases than Alfredo, although Tony was also on base much more often. (The proportions seem fairly balanced, to be honest.) But Fernandez did make more outs at third base than anywhere else, with Griffin it was trying to score.

Remember when Gleyber Torres used to be good? Did he peak at 22?

5 day rest Ryu is a great pitcher.

Richards had not pitched in a while. Was good.

Beauty, eh.

Montoyo may also have been thinking - Ryu might get Judge and Stanton. But what if he doesn't? Then what? Bring in Richards to pitch to Rizzo? Better to just give him a clean inning. Besides - it's Gerrit Cole tomorrow, I'm not taking any chances with today's game.

Wait is that "hope" that I'm feeling for this team again? Frig!

A note on Springer - he suffered a Grade 1 knee sprain on August 14. That's also how the injury Bo Bichette suffered on August 15, 2020 was described. Bo didn't play again until September 12.

Weird that they're having a Don Mattingly bubblehead day. No player worth honoring on the current lineup?

Sanchez sucks at blocking balls and framing.

Why not pinch-run Dyson for Gurriel since Dyson will be taking over defensively anyway?

"Remember when Gleyber Torres used to be good? Did he peak at 22?"

Never thought his milb numbers justified the hype....and then he come smashing into the majors surprising me. Reassuring to see he's not as good as he first looked - and kinda nice in general to see some recent bosox and yank prospects turn into Aaron hills and Adam Linds for a change.

Did Springer re-injure himself? Why is Lamb pinch-hitting?

I would have left Ryu in too.
Smoak -18.9 684gp
overbay -16.2 723gp,
Morales -14.8 280gp,
griffin -13.4 923gp,
Lind -13 953gp, 
#10 grichuck -9.7   460gp
#12 guerrero -8.1 317gp
#20y escobar -4.2 338gp
#26 Fernandez -2.5 1450gp, #44 g bell -0.3 1180gp
best r davis 20.3 345gp
Fangraphs baserunning stats with Jays only

Springer foiked balls off his legs like 3 times last at bat, qas hobbled and made weak swings. He probably needs a game off.

Ka-boom.

Current win probability: 99.9%

Should have gone with the multi-year contract offer with Semien.

"Did Springer re-injure himself? "

Fouled it right off the kneecap of his injured knee.

Brooks Kriske is about as effective as Officer Krupke, though today's battle is hardly the Jets against the Sharks.

Springer clearly wanted to stay the game-at least for this 4th AB--but he also clearly had trouble swinging and limped back to the bench.

Meanwhile, I applaud the choice of walking 3 guys in the bottom of the lineup to load the bases so the pitcher had to attack Semien with fastballs. I wonder who pitches the 9th now. Can't be Romano, not unless somebody else screws up first.

The Jays were discussing a four-year deal with Semien in the off-season. They were probably haggling over $70m versus $80m or so. Now he might get a Springer or Realmuto-type contract.

Please bring in a bad reliever now Montoya. Like Soria.

Should have gone with the multi-year contract offer with Semien.

The off-season will show just how much Semien prioritizes playing shortstop. He may get more than one offer to play second base.

Hmm. You'd think we'd want to save cimber for a bigger spot against their rights power bats.

Umpire is just flipping coins back there.

Yuge statement win.

Now let's put up an ugly number on Cole. DO IT FOR ROBBIE!!

Cimber has a rubber arm. There's no real point in saving him.

First ball to Gallo was really close to the middle of the plate.
Second strike was outside by at least a couple of inches.
That evens things up, I guess.
By the boos he's getting, it seems Gallo hasn't flourished in New York.

After the umps miscalls 2 pitches in one AB, if I'm the batter I swing at everything I can reach.

I really get the feeling that Semien wants to go play for a west coast team.
He's from Oakland. His family is there.
I think Biggio can handle second and they just need someone to play third for a year or two.

The Yankees would be well served in going after a shortstop this winter.
I can't stand Correa, so he's probably a good match for them.

Dickerson is not a bad DH for this team.
Not sure there is anybody better on the market.

"Dickerson is not a bad DH for this team."

If Danny's bat keeps waking up, then Kirk is my DH.

I really get the feeling that Semien wants to go play for a west coast team.

Of the two Bay Area teams, one needs a shortstop but can't afford him and the other a second baseman, and can. The Dodgers will be bringing Trea Turner back but Seager and Taylor are free agents, so there could be a job opening there.

"If Danny's bat keeps waking up, then Kirk is my DH."

I have absolutely no problem with Kirk being the regular DH and backup catcher. How often does the starting catcher actually have to come out of the game because of injury? Twice a season?

I'd also be fine with continuing the McGuire/Jansen/Kirk three catcher setup for a whole season.

I agree that Kirk is the best choice at DH right now. If/when Springer is able to play CF everyday again, Dickerson can be the 4th OF and LH bat off the bench.

They’ll have to decide if they want to upgrade on Grichuk as the extra OF for next year. I’d prefer someone that can play a plus defensive CF. But that’s a decision for later.

The Rays and Red Sox are tied 9-9 in the ninth. Go pesky Rays!

Boston's D is shamboloc. Just cost them an inside the park HR to tie it up in the 9th. 9-9.

Rough day for Verdugo. The defence hasn’t been great, but their pitching has also given up 17 hits

One advantage to Kirk as DH is that he should be relatively fresh, having missed a lot of time this year. I think he would do well in that role over the next month (for as long as he’s needed).

And the rays take the lead!

Seems like the Red Sox bullpen is leaking more than ours right now. Let’s hope that keeps up. A few more days like this and things will get really interesting

Ryu came out because he felt some tightness in his arm, doesn't think it will affect his next start.

Good thing Stripling is working his way back — just in case.

Ryu says he thinks his elbow got a little tight because he threw a lot more sliders than he normally does. He usually doesn't throw many at all. But he says watching Robbie Ray throw his has been inspiring. Seriously.

Ballgame. The WC race just got tighter.

3 and 3.5gms back from both wildcard spots, with 26gms left.

And IMHO, we have a better roster than both teams we're chasing.

This is a very real playoffs race now.

Ah yes, this is more like it - these Jays are very good - lots of hitters, really good starting staff, and the pen is getting stronger and stronger. Just really bad luck they aren't fighting for 1st in the division. I doubt anyone wants to face these Jays in the playoffs.

Playoff Rotation (4): Ray/Manoah/Ryu/Berrios - Matz the long man - that would be a L/R/L/R mix with 3 different styles of pitching so an ideal setup (could flip Berrios/Manoah easily)
Playoff Pen (9): Romano/Mayza/Cimber/Richards/Soria/Pearson/Merryweather (supposed to be back this week)/Stripling/Matz

Lineup: 11 regulars (mix match CA with Jansen/Kirk, CF platoon with Grichuk/Dickerson)
CA: Jansen/Kirk
1B: Vlad
2B: Semien
SS: Bo
3B: ugh... will Espinal or Biggio be back? Please? If not then Valera and/or Smith
LF: Gurriel
CF: Grichuk/Dickerson platoon
RF: Hernandez
DH: Springer (would love him in CF but I don't see it after today)
Bench (2): Dyson, Lamb or Smith or Valera or Espinal or Biggio depending who is healthy

A few obvious holes - defense in CF, 3B is a mess unless some guys get healthy but overall a pretty strong team.

Injury Notes (most via MLB.com): Biggio supposed to start a rehab this week in Buffalo (again), Stripling should be doing a rehab game or two as well, Espinal is doubtful until the final week of the season from what I'm reading. CBS has dates: Biggio: Sept 12, Stripling Sept 11, Espinal Sept 8th. A bit more optimistic imo, but boy would it be nice to see Espinal back at 3B. Valera has been hitting better but a 67 OPS+ is sad, mixed with Smith's horrid bat so far (he looks like he could break out anytime, but hasn't).

So much fun to dream of playoffs instead of wondering who the Jays dump this winter to try to rebuild ala 2019.

The next few games are huge. After that the Jays will have 14 games remaining against bad teams and 9 against good ones. Win two or three of the next three games and they will be in a strong position to make a run. As Boone said today, “these are big-time games.” Tomorrow’s game against Cole is very important. A win would help the Jays maintain momentum and take clear charge of the series.

Re: Gleyber Torres

In 2019 he hit .394/.467/1.045 against Baltimore (26/66, 13 home runs). Take those away and he's at .263/.316/.465 against MLB-quality competition, right in between his 2018 and 2020 numbers.

Mariners getting blasted by the Stros.

Looks like there won't be any teams left between us and the wild cards now.

So what is the rotation right now?

• Yankees: Matz, Manoah, Berrios
• O's: Ray, Ryu/Stripling(?) double header, Matz
• Rays: Manoah, Berrios, Ray
• Day Off
• Twins: Ryu, Matz, Manoah
• Rays: Berrios, Ray, Ryu
• Twins: Matz, Manoah, Berrios, Ray
• Day Off
• Yankees: Ryu, Matz, Manoah
• Orioles: Berrios, Ray, Ryu
• Day Off
• Wild Card (hopefully): Matz (I suspect they'll skip Ryu on the final day so he can start this game instead with extra rest)
• Day Off
• Division Series: 2 games, Day Off, 2 games, Day Off, Final Game
• LCS: Day Off, 2 games, Day Off, 3 games, Day Off, 2 games
• WS: 2 days off, 2 games, Day Off, 3 games, Day Off, 2 games

Ray would be set up for the Division Series game 1 with this schedule, with Berrios or Manoah for game 2, game 3 would be Ryu, game 4 other of Berrios/Manoah, deciding game 5 Ray (5 days rest). Talk about a perfect rotation setup should they get that far.

"I really get the feeling that Semien wants to go play for a west coast team."

I'd be willing to bet he stays east.

A lot depends on when a spot is clinched but you have to do whatever possible to position Ray to start the WC game, don't you?

I'm willing to bet that both Semien and Ray both sign with the team that makes them the best offer regardless of geography.

Semien is part of the Jays for now and is having an MVP type season. I suspect some teams will push hard to get him, including the Jays, but he ends up somewhere out west to be closer to his family if the dollars/years are close. The Jays would be his #2 choice but a team like the Yankees or Mets would need to do what the Jays normally need to - an extra year, or a whole lot more money per year - to get him.

Ray will be interesting - he was a decent pitcher until he fell apart in 2020, now he is a Cy Young contender. Will he want to stay here with the pitching coach who helped him move like that or go elsewhere? Years and dollars will be the #1 factor - for once I think the Jays have an advantage on this, if we are close he probably stays here, but not if it is a full year more elsewhere or tens of millions more.

Matz is now getting interesting too - 117 ERA+ and looking better all the time. Also a free agent. He might feel a second year here with Walker might push him over the top ala Ray. So he is a good plan B. 2022 will be Ryu/Manoah/Berrios/Stripling/??? will that ??? be Ray, Matz, Pearson, Hatch, or someone else?

FYI: Hatch pitched on the 4th so his next start would be on the 9th logically, but I bet the Jays hold him back for the double header vs Baltimore in case Stripling isn't ready (odds are he won't be). I expect that 2nd game to be a Johnny-All-Staff game. Hopefully the Jays get a really strong start in game 1 and on the Friday.

Usually in these situations the free agent moves on. But there are exceptions.

Anthopoulos just extended Morton for a year ($20m). Would be nice to see the Jays do the same with Semien (for more money, obviously).

I suggested negotiating a Ray extension before the All-Star break, but maybe that was never going to happen.

The most likely outcome is that Semien and Ray sign for a lot of money with other teams, and the Jays acquire a couple of other players to fill those positions.

Probably the best outcome would be to take advantage of the manna from heaven (two MVP-calibre players falling into the Jays’ lap) and win the World Series this year while they have the chance.

Bold move changing the brand of rum, Magpie. Some players don't even change their underwear during a winning streak.

I saw on a Yankee's site that Luis Gil has been announced as their starter for Wednesday.

Some may have heard it on the broadcast but Vlad becomes just the third player in MLB history to hit the 40 home run and 100 RBI marks at age 23 or less. The others are Joe Dimaggio and Juan Gonzales. Also, the Guerrero's are the second father/son duo to hit 40 home runs in a season. Cecil and Prince Fielder are the others.

Boston's Covid-wracked lineup has two more games against the Rays, then 3 in Chicago against the White Sox and finally 3 in Seattle. That's a hard stretch and hopefully the Jays will be even with or past them by the time it's over.

It will be a tough game against Cole. A Cole/Ray game would be exciting, wouldn't it? Hopefully Matz will rise to the challenge.

Semien signed with the Jays in the first place because they were likely the only team willing to give him a $18M AAV (over one year or in general). Only a handful of teams were spending money last winter. In other words, he went where the money was. I see it playing out no differently in a few months.

As far as the Jays trying to extend him, he has no reason to extend before testing free agency. He is 2nd in MLB in position player WAR (just barely behind Vlad), and will probably end up with 40 HR as a SS/2B. He signed with Toronto specifically to make as much money as he could in 2021 and to build his value up to make as much money as he could in 2022-beyond. He doesn't benefit at all from signing now without knowing what his value on the open market is first.

For the most part I agree, but if he likes it in Toronto and the Jays make a substantial offer, Semien might consider it given that he ended up with few options last off-season. There is some limited precedent for players foregoing free agency to stay here (EE, Halladay).

Ray is not open to talking contracts during the year.
Semien is, but I think he wants to test the market and see if he can find a spot on the west coast.
Playing 2 positions and getting MVP votes should help.

Morton is an old guy on the eve of retirement.
He also wanted to stay close  to his home, Florida, I think.

Ohtani is both hitting and pitching very well. Potential MVP. They are playing around .500 ball. Another #1/2 pitcher would help a lot.

FA would be the best way to get this pitcher. Trading for someone like that in the off season hardly ever happens I think. Halladay to the Phils is 1 example.

"Ray is not open to talking contracts during the year"

We don't know this. All we know is that (according to Blair) the Jays have chosen not to make overtures to Ray during the season, whereas they have approached Semien about an extension.

Ryu is funny. He's great on 5 days rest, ok on 4 days and usually bad on 6 days of rest or more.
Wild card games are usually bullpen games anyway. You take it day by day.
That day off before the wild card is also the day they'll play a tie-breaker if they need one.

It's been reported several times during the pre-game shows.
They said that Ray likes to focus on pitching and they were able to talk with Semien's agent but not Ray's. 

Turns out the Ryu took himself out of the game - a reminder that there is so much we don't know when criticizing managerial moves.

Sometimes this Jays FO do signings fast. Ray, Estrada and Happ. Sometimes late. Ryu and Springer. I cannot think of anyone being extended mid year by this FO.

On August 12th, at the Field of Dreams, just one player -- Jake Lamb -- heard a voice whisper in the Iowa cornfield:

"Offer rum. He will come."

Nice to hear the Jays are trying - and i'm not as cynical anymore that their satisfied with just trying for optics' sake.

one thing that would make their lives much easier, of course, would be this Jays team winning the world series. that would make us a much more attractive destination for every free agent.

I don't know if Ray and/or Semien will be resigned by the Jays. They will try.

I strongly feel it will be hard to do as well in 2022 as they are doing in 2021. Ray is having his best year. Semien is kind of equal to his best year which is 2019. I don't expect a duplicate in 2022 of 2021.

In 2017-2020 the AL leader has won 100+ games. I expect 100+ wins from the AL leader this year as well. Next year also, but not likely from the Jays. After that I think or hope that the Jays will have a few 100+ win years.

I hope the Jays win 91 games or better this year. Then hope for 94 wins in 2022 even if we lose Ray and Semien. The 91 and 94 wins may sound crazy to some bauxites. However some have predicted 84-86 which seemed reasonable to me.

100+ wins is a target we will/may need to hit quite soon I expect.

To improve in 2022 the need is to have a more stable rotation (15 starts to Roark, Milone, Zeuch, Kay, Thornton, Phelps, Bergen = 50 IP 48 H 32 R 25 ER 18 BB 42 K 4.50 ERA which isn't bad, but just 3 1/3 IP per start which is) which should be a lock - Ryu/Berrios/Manoah/Stripling/whoever (hopefully Ray). The pen should be better if healthy - 32 used so far this year, 13 with 10+ IP each, 19 with under 10 IP each. The worst ERA's are Zeuch, Soria, Beasley, Kay, Hand, Edwards, Milone, Barnes - all over 6 and only Kay might be here next year (AAA depth). The 5's are Dolis, Chatwood, Castro, Tice, Borucki - Borucki and Castro might be here next year. Who will be here? Romano, Cimber, Richards, Mayza, Pearson. All others are a crapshoot.

Defense/lineup? With luck we'll have Springer all year in CF (or we'll have to nickname him 'glass'), 2B/3B should be a bit of a mess but could be solid with Biggio back to 2B and a cast of many trying to win 3B (Espinal the early favorite, Smith trying to show he isn't a 12 OPS+ guy, Vinny Capra in AA/AAA hitting 320/392/543 (age 24), Samad Taylor AA/22 hitting 294/385/503, Otto Lopez AA/AAA/ML/22 319/385/437, Jordan Groshans AA/21 291/367/450 plus others I'm sure. I expect better from Grichuk and Gurriel (who has really come to life latley) and Kirk should get more playing time with any luck.

This team is at the beginning of a window, not the end. This will be a fun one to watch over the next 5-10 years.

With luck we'll have Springer all year in CF

What does all year optimistically look like for a guy in his 30s with some injury history? 120 games (with some time at DH)? My feeling is that the team will always need a secondary CF to fill in the missed games, and it's gotta be a whole let better than a Jonathan Davis type. If Grichuk becomes a 4th outfielder, then that seems obviously to be his role. With other holes to plug, I can't see the team prioritizing CF2 in the off-season.

Ha. Amazing.

Today Jeff Blair predicted that if the Jays beat Cole tonight, they will make the playoffs. I agree with that prediction.

This seems of interesting use towards helping an iffy bullpen.Anybody with the skills or access want to look further into it? https://community.fangraphs.com/using-clustering-to-generate-bullpen-matchups/

Making Cole look very very human.

For Robbie!!!

TB tooling the bosox.

Can you feel it?

Man. Cole out. What a development, not just today but the rest of the season. What a crazy year of attrition. I hope this doesn’t continue next year

Was following on gamecast and noticed the number of pitches the bottom of the lineup was getting Cole to throw. And now it appears that they have broken him! Tuned in just to see Cole take himself out, anyone notice what happened?

It's probably not serious. Soemthjng happened the previous inning and he tried to pitch thru it. Didn't look like an arm I don't think. Maybe a groin tweak or something.

Can't be totally  sure, but that's probably the first time the Jays have had 2 sac flies, a balk advance, and a passed ball, all in the same half inning.

Is it weird that Bichette reminds me of Eckstein as a thrower? Eckstein was accurate and had to put all of his effort into every throw (or so it appeared), whereas Bichette seems to have to put all of his effort into making an accurate throw - or is Vladdy just bad at making an inaccurate throw look like a routine catch or something? SEems like 2/3 throws from Bichette involve a dig, the splits, tippy-toes, etc. Almost seems like a small case of the yips? Or maybe the small sample I actually see is just a weird one...

I suspect a blister took Cole out.

Maybe a groin tweak or something.

Close! (Closer than me, anyway.)

Excellent start by Matz in a high-stakes game. He mixed his pitches (FB 93-95, changeup, curve) really well, in and out, great location, good poise on the mound.

Hammy?

I'm a broken record as usual but I bring matz out for one more....at least until the order turns around again.

Soria coming in. I'm a little nervous after his last outing.

Even though he's struggled Soria still fills me with calm.

Maybe because it looks like he's stoned.

Using Cimber in a 8-0 game only to follow it up with Soria the next night in a 4-1 game is certainly an interesting way to manage.

Yanks fans call him DP Lemehieu now.

Solid job by Soria to dispatch the Yankees in the seventh.

Now that’s how you DH.

Semien and Kirk now both have an 886 OPS.

Imagine pinch-hitting Valera for Kirk in a key situation with runners on. Safe to say that will *never* happen again.

"Imagine pinch-hitting Valera for Kirk"

To quote Buck from 2/3 weeks ago - Kirk has isn’t really suited to coming off the bench, I want a guy who can hit one out.

Its of course unlikely (duh), but it’s possible Kirk is a generational hitting talent for a C.

This team is scary when all aspects are working.

2 and 2.5gms back of both WCs.


Yuge game for the big rook Manoah tommorrow in the big Apple.

"To quote Buck from 2/3 weeks ago - Kirk has isn’t really suited to coming off the bench, I want a guy who can hit one out."

I'm so glad I've trained my brain to filter him out as background noise.

Yes. Big game for Manoah.

Buck's comment in the 8th inning," The Blue Jays pitchers have been pretty good."

Uh, yeah, 1 run allowed in 16 innings ( at that point) against the Yankees in Yankee Stadium is more than pretty good.

Oh, and that short, fat guy can really hit!

I'm pleased that Kirk is showing off his ability this year, so that the Jays either (a) keep him beyond 2021 (my preference), or (b) demand a lot for him in return in a trade (even more than Brad Hand!).

Please stop talking about trading Kirk.

And hey let's give a shout out to Matz. Here been dominant for a while now.

And Pete Walker. The pitcher whisperer.

Selling high on Kirk is a decent idea. Especially if it takes a short time to get a fat return on prospects with years of control.

I kid, I doubt he'd fetch much of value to the team and I want to see how far he can go in a Jays uniform.

"Please stop talking about trading Kirk."

Why? that's childish - I like Kirk but there isn't a player in baseball I wouldn't trade for the right price and talking about trading a player isn't the same as trading the player - Are you saying that if the Rays offered Wander Franco for Kirk you would say no?

Can't imagine a worse asset to trade than Kirk - the insanely underrated 22yr old stud.

Just think - baseball people think a 22yr old AA slaphitter that can't field like Austin Martin is worth more than a stud 22yr old catcher like Kirk.

The FanGraphs and ESPN models now have the Jays playoff chances at 36% and 26%, respectively.

Age 21-22, min 100pa, Blue Jays history:

1. Guerrero .312babip, 153wrc+, 4.7war650
2. Kirk .303babip, 142wrc+, 4.7war650
3. Bichette .361babip, 134wrc+, 5.0war650
4. Olerud .283babip, 118wrc+, 2.7war650
5. Lawrie .312babip, 112wrc+, 4.1war650

Were I offered, I would trade Kirk for Wander Franco. #hottake

I don't expect Kirk to have a huge babip given his lack of speed.
He brilliantly took advantage of Yankees Stadium for 2 cheap homers.
It shouldn't take too long for the Bronx Bummers to smarten up and pitch him inside.

The hamstring issue explains the balk.
2 runs on 2 sac flies in the same inning.
Imagine the frustration.

The Jays lefties like to work on the glove side of the plate.
Inside to righties, outside to lefties.
That seems to work well, but I'm not sure if they really get more than they lose from the shift against lefties in that case.

Ray is player of the week.

B-ref is up to 46%.
Tampa is on track for 101.
Red Sox/Yankees both tracking 90-91 wins.
Jays, 89-90.
Oackland, 86-87.
Mariners, 86.

The Yankees, like the Jays, have 6 games left against Tampa.
Boston has the one game left against the Rays, 3 against  the Yankees, 3 against the White Sox, 3 against the Mariners. Might be the easiest schedule, but they have 3 games less left to play.

The red flag is that the Jays haven't played well against bad teams.
There's a lot riding on those 7 games vs Twins and 7 vs Baltimore.

He brilliantly took advantage of Yankees Stadium for 2 cheap homers.

Smart hitting, sure, but those weren't cheapies. Per @Would_It_Dong on twitter, Kirk's 2nd-inning homer would have gone out in 20 of 30 MLB parks, the 8th-inning shot in 27/30.

The joke stadium specials were on Monday -
Vladdy - 6/30
Teoscar - 9/30
Semien - 3/30

And the previous series he yanked an inside pitch for a screaming line drive hr to left.

Thanks Jonny German for the Hr analysis. Yankee stadium I suppose helps certain types of hitters. The Green Monster probably does as well.

Wander Franco is a V good player who should get regular playing time. Kirk will get C/DH time at best it seems. Kirk is also a V good player but has to earn his playing time at C. Jansen is the regular catcher for Ryu and McGuire may be the regular catcher for some other pitchers.

I would trade Kirk for Wander Franco

Glibness aside, Franco's WAR is somewhere between 2.1 (FG) and 2.9 (BR) in just 60 games (or between 5 and 7 in 150 games), at age 20. He will be a free agent after his age-25 season. After Tampa has skimmed off 6 excellent, cheap seasons, Franco should become the highest paid player in the game. What will that contract look like?

Actually, Franco will be experiencing a Bryant/Guerrero situation, where he will play 6.x seasons before becoming a free gent. So Franco will be a FA at age 26.

In Yankees Stadium, you take the screaming line drive to left.
Blue Jays have been pitching inside all year.

Goodness! The Rays have promoted another top prospect, Josh Lowe - all those teams fighting for WC spots and then likely to be eviscerated by the Rays - And that Wander Franco is amazing - now there's a stud prospect!

I hope Franco doesn't sign one of those insanely cheap team friendly extensions. Going year to year with the Rays is the smartest strategy for a player because even if a player signs an extension with them, he will still get traded when the contract becomes even moderately expensive a few years later. Regardless, the Rays are an embarrassment of riches, and the fact that they have no fans means they can trade pieces one year too early (see Blake Snell) without worrying about optics, so they just continue to stockpile young talent.

As far as Kirk, I don't think there's any chance the Jays move him. They are in a competitive window. Trading a big league player who is cheap for many years and is already contributing wouldn't make sense. If they are going to move a top prospect this winter it will probably be Groshans since it's questionable whether he's a future star and whether he will be ready to contribute by 2023.

They held on to Franco until he was passed the super 2 deadline, but they will certainly unload him before his last year of arb eligibility, assuming he's a top player at that point. They only let marginal players walk off.

Margot and Wisler are free agents at the end of next year.
I believe Arozarena will be a super two and get arbitration at the end of next year, just like Guerrero will get paid something this winter.

They are stuck with Kiermaier making 12M next year.
They probably give Zunino his 4M this time or somebody else could sign him for more.
They'll lose Wacha, McHugh, Roe. Nothing crippling.

Glasnow is making 4M, will miss all of next year and then would have a final year of arbitration.
Looks like a non-tender candidate.
People due for a raise that they could move:
Ji-Man Choi, Wendle, Yarbrough.

Guys who will hit arbitration for the first time this winter:
Kittredge, Meadows, Diaz, Beeks, Anderson, Springs, Phillips, Luplow, Reed, Mejia.
They probably dump a few of those too.

I don't see why they would trade a top prospect at a position of need.
It seems clear they'll do the right thing and trade from areas of strength, like they did with Adams.
If they were to sign Semien, Biggio would be a trade candidate, but would not bring much back.
I don't see much pressure on the 40 roster now.

They need to retain or replace Ray.
They also need a couple of top relievers.
They need a DH/LF/1B type, preferably a left bat.
They'll eventually need a CF so Springer can move to a corner.
They'll eventually need a 3B, but they can make do and pick a rental at the next trade deadline.

They'll have to figure out what to do with Hatch and Pearson.
Overall, they're in a pretty good spot.

AAA 2021

OF J.Lowe (23): 412pa, 12.4b%/26.7k%, .345bip/.282avg, .257iso, 138wrc+
SS K.Smith (24): 352pa, 11.4b%/23.6k%, .332bip/.296avg, .289iso, 148wrc+

Well said scottt about TB's future probable moves. Also the needs and probable Jays off season actions.

It was mentioned that the Jays were basically playing a little better than .500 each "completed" month so far. So an 85 win season seemed likely.

Next year we need to get to about 93/94 wins and quite likely without Ray and Semien. Quite likely neither will be the equal of their 2021 season.

Stuff happens as well. Like G Cole in yesterdays game.

C Morton got 1 year at $20mil with Atlanta. Good deal for him and also for Atlanta because now they have a deep 2022 rotation. Will be stronger when Soroka returns.

I looked at Matz. Not as good as Morton but reasonably close this year. Some kind of extension may happen with the Jays.

I hope the Jays are doing what they need to keep Walker happy who is clearly a difference maker in the organization. The emergence of Ray as a Cy Young candidate and Matz as a very solid contributor will catch the attention not only of other pitchers…but also other organizations.

The focus too often is on players only as the difference makers…or sometimes GM’s. But the value of other guys in the organization like super scout Eppy Guerrero in the 80s is sometimes not fully understood until they are gone.

Honestly, this is a sweet time to be a baseball fan.  A young, upstart team that won't quit.  A legit playoff race.  Massive individual milestones.  And a classic race between the Dodgers and Giants in the NL.  Best live experience I ever had was seeing late August baseball in San Francisco against the Dodgers.  Even better than seeing the Swallows in the Japan series, and they won that game and went on to win the series.  Anyone else see any international baseball over the years?  I saw a game in Havana too, another cool experience.  But with the pandemic lifting, I'm itching to get some baseball travel going on next summer. 

How do the Jays and Rays actually stack up, anyways?

might as well ride the wave and get ahead of ourselves, no?


1B Guerrero 153wrc+, 4.8war650 ----- DH Cruz 141wrc+, 3.7war650
CF Springer 146wrc+, 5.1war650 ----- 2B Lowe 137wrc+, 5.4war650
DH Kirk 142wrc+, 4.7war650 --------- RF Arozarena 136wrc+, 3.7war650
RF Hernandez 132wrc+, 4.0war650 ---- SS Franco 126wrc+, 5.1war650
2B Semien 124wrc+, 5.6war650 ------- C Zunino 120wrc+, 6.4war650
SS Bichette 116wrc+, 4.0war650 ----- 1B Choi 118wrc+, 2.2war650
LF Gurriel 114wrc+, 1.9war650 ------ 3B Diaz 116wrc+, 2.4war650
3B Biggio 102wrc+, 1.4war650 ------- LF Meadows 109wrc+, 1.6war650
C Jansen 84wrc+, 1.5war650 --------- CF Kiermaier 87wrc+, 3.8war650

UT Dickerson 98wrc+, 0.6war650 ----- UT Wendle 111wrc+, 3.3war650
OF Grichuk 95wrc+, 0.9war650 ------- OF Philips 101wrc+, 4.0war650
IF Espinal 96wrc+, 3.7war650 ------- IF Brosseau 103wrc+, 2.2war650
C McGuire 61wrc+, 2.1war650 -------- C Mejia 91wrc+, 1.9war650

UT Lamb 90wrc+, 0.3war650 ---------- UT Luplow 105wrc+, 2.0war650
OF Dyson 40wrc+, -1.6war650 -------- OF Margot 94wrc+, 2.2war650
IF Valera 66wrc+, 0.0war650 -------- IF Walls 76wrc+, 2.2war650
C Moreno --------------------------- C Odom -3wrc+, -7.1war650

IF Smith 15wrc+, -3.8war650 -------- OF Lowe ----




LH Ryu 77era-, 4.1war32 ------------ LH Mclanahan 91era-, 3.2war32
RH Ray 79era-, 3.9war32 ------------ LH Yarbrough 108era-, 1.7war32
RH Berrios 83era-, 3.7war32 -------- LH Fleming 107era-, 1.3war32
RH Manoah 82era-, 2.7war32 --------- RH Patino 114era-, 0.5war32
LH Matz 111era-, 1.5war32 ---------- RH Archer 127era-, 0.3war32


RH Romano 51era-, 1.6war65 --------- RH Kittredge 36era-, 2.0war65
LH Mayza 75era-, 1.1war65 ---------- RH McHugh 35era-, 1.9war65
RH Merryweather 69era-, 3.0war65 --- RH Robertson 54era-, 2.4war65
RH Cimber 64era-, 1.0war65 --------- RH Hunter 68era-, 1.5war65
RH Hatch 73era-, 0.7war65 ---------- RH Chargois 58era-, 1.4war65
RH Soria 96era-, 0.7war65 ---------- RH Wisler 67era-, 1.4war65
LH Saucedo 101era-, 0.6war65 ------- RH Fairbanks 77era-, 1.0war65
LH Borucki 90era-, 0.3war65 -------- RH Thompson 78era-, 0.9war65
RH Richards 102era-, 0.3war65 ------ RH Rasmussen 88era-, 0.9war65
RH Stripling 110era-, 0.3war65 ----- RH Wacha 139era-, 0.0war32
RH Pearson 143era-, -1.0war65 ------ RH Baz ----



The Jays have a healthy advantage in the batting order imo, and an even bigger advantage in the starting rotation.

The Rays, of course, have a healthy advantage in bench options and an even bigger advantage in the bullpen, which they of course use a ton.


I don't think there's anything to be too scared of here, and i doubt it would be an easy series for the Rays.

"AAA 2021

OF J.Lowe (23): 412pa, 12.4b%/26.7k%, .345bip/.282avg, .257iso, 138wrc+
SS K.Smith (24): 352pa, 11.4b%/23.6k%, .332bip/.296avg, .289iso, 148wrc+"

As always, numbers don't tell the whole story. There's a reason many scouts and industry people view Lowe as a top outfield prospect in baseball and not Kevan Smith as a top prospect.

That reason would be.....because he's a Ray.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves, despite this nice run the Jays are still on the outside looking in at the WC spot.

Every time Atlanta signs a player to an extension, I'm reminded of the excess spending money they have due to the below-market extensions signed by Acuna and Albies.

Yes it's true - the scouts and analyst all have a prejudice against Blue Jays prospects.

The main reason Kirk isn't playing all the time is stud Danny Jansen. With one of the stranger month-by-month splits I think I've ever seen (sorry for weird formatting, let's hope it works). I think the missing field is an actual "1.000" for BAbip in August - I guess BRef doesn't see this kind of thing too often?
SplitGGSPlate Appearances
When available, we use actual plate appearances from play-by-play game accounts
Otherwise estimated using AB + BB + HBP + SF + SH,
which excludes catcher interferences.
When this color click for a summary of each PA.">PAABRH2B3BHRRBISBCSBBSOHits/At Bats
For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA
per team game played
Bold indicates highest BA using current stats
Gold means awarded title at end of year." data-filter="1" data-name="Batting Average">BA(H + BB + HBP)/(At Bats + BB + HBP + SF)
For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA
per team game played" data-filter="1" data-name="On-Base%">OBPTotal Bases/At Bats or
(1B + 2*2B + 3*3B + 4*HR)/AB
For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA
per team game played" data-filter="1" data-name="Slugging %">SLGOn-Base + Slugging Percentages
For recent years, leaders need 3.1 PA
per team game played" data-filter="1" data-name="On-Base Plus Slugging">OPSTotal Bases
Singles + 2 x Doubles + 3 x Triples + 4 x Home Runs.">TBDouble Plays Grounded Into
Only includes standard 6-4-3, 4-3, etc. double plays.
First tracked in 1933.
For gamelogs only in seasons we have play-by-play, we include triple plays as well.
All official seasonal totals do not include GITP's.">GDPHBPSHSacrifice Flies
First tracked in 1954.">SFIntentional Bases on Balls
First tracked in 1955.">IBBReached On Error
Times a batter reached due to an error
DOES NOT include a fielder’s choice where no out was recorded.">ROEBatting Avg. on Balls in Plays(Hits - Home Runs)/(At Bats - SO - HR + Sac Flies)
This also measures how effectively the
defense turned balls into outs." data-filter="1" data-name="Batting Average on Balls In Play">BAbipOPS for split relative to Player’s Total OPS
A number greater than 100 indicates this batter(pitcher) did better(worse) than usual in this split.
A number less than 100 indicates that the batter(pitcher) did worse(better) than usual in this split.">tOPS+OPS for split relative to League’s Split OPS
A number greater than 100 indicates this batter(pitcher) did better(worse) than the league in this split.
A number less than 100 indicates that the batter(pitcher) did worse(better) than the league in this split.
League averages are for the major leagues as a whole and include pitchers’ batting.
sOPS+ is not park-adjusted.">sOPS+April/March1614494432100000512.045.143.068.2113200000.063-31-36May241769601013203800719.217.309.400.70924111000.26311299June22440210000000.500.500.7501.2503000000.500268236July7618173510220004.294.333.7061.03912010001.273196171August112111001100101.0001.0004.0005.0004000000
12561180Sept/Oct32881320110001.375.3751.0001.3758000001.333285248
A solid "5000 OPS" for August - beat that Barry Bonds :-) - although he's fallen back to earth with 1375 since then. No wonder Kirk is sitting /s.
Of course, outside of that horrible start (March/April), he's actually had a pretty good season with the bat - probably something like 750 OPS - and I would guess that most people would agree he's a bit better defensively than Kirk. OTOH, Kirk seems to have the game-calling ability a bit more? IIRC, his ERA is lower than for Jansen - although teams faced will also factor into that - maybe Kirk was played against some lesser teams initially?
Poor Reese McGuire - he had a hot month of June, where he seemingly helped salvage the season when Kirk was on the IL and Jansen was hurt off-and-on, by hitting 750+ OPS. Since then, he's fallen off again back to ~650. And he's probably has the least defensive skill of the three? Yet, he's, IMHO, definitely a viable MLB backup. Maybe even a platoon starter?

Dang. Looked so pretty in the composition window :-) Sorry.

Anyway, use this link: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/split.fcgi?id=janseda01&year=2021&t=band scroll down to "Months".

Split         G  GS  PA  AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  SB  CS  BB  SO  BAVG  OBP  SLG     OPS   TB  GDP  HBP  SH  SF  IBB  ROE  BAbip    tOPS+  sOPS+
April/March  16  14  49  44   3   2   1   0   0    0   0   0   5  12  .045  .143  .068   .211   3    2    0   0   0    0    0   .063    -31     -36
May          24  17  69  60  10  13   2   0   3    8   0   0   7  19  .217  .309  .400   .709  24    1    1   1   0    0    0   .263    112    99
June          2   2   4   4   0   2   1   0   0    0   0   0   0   0  .500  .500  .750  1.250   3    0    0   0   0    0    0   .500    268    236
July          7   6  18  17   3   5   1   0   2    2   0   0   0   4  .294  .333  .706  1.039  12    0    1   0   0    0    1   .273    196    171
August        1   1   2   1   1   1   0   0   1    1   0   0   1   0 1.000 1.000 4.000  5.000   4    0    0   0   0    0    0   1.000   256   1180
Sept/Oct      3   2   8   8   1   3   2   0   1    1   0   0   0   1  .375  .375 1.000  1.375   8    0    0   0   0    0    1   .333    285    248

(I do it in Firefox, take advantage of the source window and then use the "pre" not "pre" tags. And line up all the columns....

Anyone else see any international baseball over the years?

I used to periodically see games in the Republic of the US of A, back in the olden days, before they built their northern wall. (Yes, I know nothing, Jon Snow.)

I wouldn't mind to see Hernandez get extended.

I see that Baker has a thing with not letting Odorizzi go a third time through the lineup.
He hasn't gone longer than 5.2 innings since July and he's visibly not happy about it.
Honestly, it's probably not Baker's decision, he's just the guy who has to go get the ball from him.

"Let's not get ahead of ourselves"

Counterpoint: Let's

I see that Baker has a thing with not letting Odorizzi go a third time through the lineup.

Well, they are hitting .395/.435/.930 against Odorizzi the third time they see him. Baker's pitching coach is even older than Dusty, but they can both read.

"Yes it's true - the scouts and analyst all have a prejudice against Blue Jays prospects."

only Keith Law.

but they all have a prejudice FOR TB prospects....for good reason - it's no surprise that prospecters will give prospects the benefit of the doubt when a team develops as well as the rays do.

But the fact of that matter is that even with Lowe showing legit high end game power for the first time in his career this year, his overall performance has still been just "good", not great. And given that power numbers are high all over the Rays' AAA roster, this AAA power surge while it fills a narrative for this particular prospect might not actually be what it looks like.


And hey, looking at Manoah and Kirk, maybe the prospecers are biased against the jays after all.

Any favourite places to see a game Chuck?  I'm lucky enough to have gotten to old Yankee stadium as a kid, and a few minor league parks here and there. 

I always try to check neutral sites - stats based - to see if assumptions are right about players. Trade values basically considers years of control, contract, and value created to get a number. Higher the better. 100+ is 'never trade unless you are insane', 50+ is 'kings ransom to get'.

Trade Values: Vlad 141.7, Bo 127.7, Moreno 53.9, Manoah 36.8, Berrios 34.6, Hernandez 32, Martinez 29.3, Groshans 21.1, Pearson 20.3, Romano 16.6, finally we find Kirk: 15.8, McGuire 10.6 (nice recovery from being off the 40 man)

Rays: Franco 136.1, Lowe 87.1, Arozarena 76.7, McClanahan 51, ... 14 guys ranked higher than Kirk, 23 at 10+ vs Jays 12 at 10+.
Yankees: Torres 45 is the only one over 40, Judge, Dominguez both in the high 30's, 7 in the 20's, 5 in the 10's = 15 worth 10+
Red Sox: Devers 77.2, Bogaerts 52.4, Casas 47.7, 5 more worth 20+, 4 more 10+ = 12 worth 10+
Orioles: Rutschman 83.1, Mullins 63.9, 6 more 20+, 4 more 10+ = 12 worth 10+

Dang those Rays. Buried in cheap talent. Nice to see little value in the Yankees (basically they pay for each bit of value they get) and Red Sox. O's are at the start of a LOOOONG rebuild.

An interesting thing to look at - hardly the be all and end all, but interesting. FYI: Martin down to 38.3, SWR 14.5 - both dropping from where they were.

The O's rebuild started back in 2017.
Rutschman will debut next year, probably after a couple of weeks.
Whatever he does could have a huge impact on the duration of their rebuild.
If he's good for 6+ WAR, they could start signing good players the next year.
The have another top draft waiting for them next year.
They have a top farm and most of their top 10 will debut next year or the following year.

Merryweather activated.

Baker back to AAA.

Anthony Kay to the COVID IL.

Merryweather back. Huh. Hopefully he lasts the rest of the year before something else happens to him. Baker makes perfect sense to send back down - glad he got into a game. Kay on COVID IL - sucks for him. A reminder it is still out there for those who ignore the daily numbers and filling ICU's.

The O's are perpetual rebuild. 3 playoff appearances this century - every other year they were at least 10 games out of 1st. 61 games out in 2018, 40+ in 2021 and 2019. When they tank, they REALLY tank. 5 times in the 2000's 30+ out plus those 3, 7 more times in the 20's out of first. Of course, the Jays only within 10 once without making the playoffs this century (2000) but just 3 times 30+ out, never 40+, never sub 400 winning percentage. O's were sub 400 3 of the past 4 years, but just one other time since their disastrous 1988 season (0-21 to start, 3-17 to finish the year), to get another year sub 400 for Baltimore you need to go to 1955. So 2 times sub 400 from 1956-2017, then 3 times from 2018-2021.

Oddity on the O's page at BR - their top 4 in WAR almost all played together - only Brooks Robinson and Cal Ripken didn't (Brooks ended in 1977, Cal started 1981) - Jim Palmer and Eddie Murray played with both Cal and Brooks.

For the Jays it is almost the opposite - top 4 are Stieb, Halladay, Bautista, Fernandez. Stieb barely played with Halladay (Stieb caught the HR hit off Halladay in the bullpen when he went 8 2/3 no hit innings), Halladay barely with Bautista (Bautista with the team for 21 games in 2008, Halladay's last year here), while Fernandez played a lot with Stieb and a bit with Halladay (2001, 1999, 1998). Half of the top 10 are from the great 80's teams (Stieb, Fernandez, Key, Barfield, Moseby), half were on the 92/93 WS winners (Stieb, Fernandez, Key all lasted to then, Delgado just started in time for '93, Hentgen a key part of '93), the dark era has Halladay/Delgado/Wells (the between playoff teams), Just Bautista for the 15/16 teams though. Encarnacion is #11.

For active players, Marcus Semien is #50 among hitters already with his 6.3 so far, Hernandez #46 with his 6.7, Bo #40 7.6, Vlad #39 8.2 For pitchers Hyun Jin Ryu is #38 with 6.1, Ray #32 with his 7.0. To catch Moseby for #10 all time a guy needs 26.0 WAR so Vlad is a couple of years away still, but could reach the top 24 next year with another amazing year but probably needs 2 years to get there (Hill at 17.1).

The O's were a good team back in 2016, but they had a lot of bad contracts on their books, so they chose to shut it down for a while. They compete with Washington for revenue and the Nats have started their rebuild, so it makes sense for the O's to get out of theirs.

They should be better next year, improve on that in 2023 and be trying to compete by 2024.
Who knows what Boston and New York will look like in 2024?

Bautista with the team for 21 games in 2008, Halladay's last year here

Halladay's last year in Toronto was actually 2009 (he went 17-10); Bautista got into 113 games, and it was that September that he became Jose Bautista. Homered in Doc's last start as a Jay (three hit shutout of the Red Sox in Fenway.)

Really good approach in the first. Let’s hope it keeps up!

Ya know, I might move Bo down the order. Would have loved to see Kirk up with the bases loaded there instead of Bo getting himself without forcing a wild Gil to throw even one strike.

That last inning is a good example of why Dickerson probably should not be hitting leadoff.

Well that was frustrating. They’ve had two great opportunities to score and haven’t even put the ball in play

Vintage Juan Guzman start.

Bases loaded, lefty coming in against Dickerson. If Springer is available as a PH, I'd want him here.

Only thing I like about Dickerson in leadoff is that the means they think Springer is back any day now.

I’ll take it!

Man, has this thing ever turned in the last 10 days.

I'm watching the YES network now after the Jays went up 3-0. I can only describe the vibe on the broadcast as one part bewilderment, one part downcast, and the other panicked.

Big boy strikeout by our big boy pitcher.

Fricken Gardner

Hate that guy

As usual, the home run isn’t the problem. The walks that preceded it are.

Certified Blue Jay Killer.

Fricken Gardner

Hate that guy

Preach.  I was just texting the same thing--He always seems to be in the mix when we play the Yankees.  I actually admire his play, but he sure is a thorn in the Jays' side.

Not bad, Trevor.

Red Sox just took a late lead. Let's not blow this.

Big strand by Richards there. As Buck said, he’s such a notorious changeup pitcher that hitters seem to look for it. Then he locates his fastball in good spots and catches guys way off guard.

Are all RP available?

Is it merryweather's night?

You have to think he’s available if they activated him. Maybe saving him for the ninth?

Tense ballgame! A lot on the line.

Does anyone have a handle on why Grichuk pinch-hit for Dickerson with the bases empty and two outs rather than the previous at-bat, where the bases were full? Makes no sense to me whatsoever.

Cimber don't need no ump.

"Ball"

Are Buck and Pat the last two remaining people in baseball who care about RBI totals?

Now there's a perfect use of Dyson.

I missed most of the game but I saw Manoah get robbed by the ump on a pitch as well (FB on the outside corner called a ball).

The general idea is that you don't pinch hit too early in the game.
You won't see defensive replacements before the 8th inning.
Pinch hitting in the 7th is fine. In the 6th? maybe not.
Before that? Nope.

The Jays have been on the receiving end of many beneficial calls tonight. On the inside to righties.

It was one walk and one hit, but I'm with you on walking Odor.
That's a sin.

HR was 114MPH off the bat for Vladdy

Not only this but they have 4 games against the Orioles coming up, don't forget.

Leaving Dickerson in was the right move. It was the 4th inning, and the PH options were Grichuk, Valera, and Smith. I certainly don't trust Grichuk over Dickerson to drive in the runner from 3rd with less than two outs, even against a lefty. Using Valera or Smith would have meant weakening the OF D (because Smith/Lamb would move into a corner and Teoscar to CF) or burning two players to send Dyson out there. Dickerson started in CF because the manager believes that's his best squad, and the 4th inning of a 0-0 game with one out was not the time to make changes. Turns out the lefty buried one in the dirt trying to stay away from Dickerson so the job got done anyway, and then Semien banged in two. You can argue the top of the 6th in a 3-3 game with 2 outs wasn't a good spot to PH for Dickerson either.

Dickerson shouldn't be leading off, even if it's just for a few games and meant to keep people in their spots in the order. The better play is to just bump everyone up one spot, and Hernandez and Kirk should bat before Bichette who has been slumping for 6+ weeks now. Heck, just leadoff Kirk and let him "clog" the bases.

Romano and Richards are probably off today, and it would be a 3rd appearance in 4 days for Mazya and Cimber so they could be down too. Wet day in the NY area, though.

I appreciate the idea of keeping a batting order intact as possible when it gets hot - so I don't mind Dickerson subbing in for Springer in that leadoff slot as long as it is a very very very short term thing.

" Not only this but they have 4 games against the Orioles coming up, don't forget."

It's not always a good thing playing a team out of the race. The Orioles are loosey-goosey and have won 4 out of their last 5 including 2of 3 from the Yankees. The Jays themselves barely took 2 of 3 from them in the last series and all the games were close. Anyway we can't look past this last game with the Yankees. I'm sure everybody would have taken 3 out of 4 wins against them before the series but now let's sweep these suckers!

Buck Martinez made a good observation, twice actually, during the game about Sanchez jerking his glove sideways to try to steal strikes. Good pitch framers move their gloves smoothly, like it's just the impact of the pitch hitting the glove that's causing it. Sanchez obvious movement makes an umpire think, " Hey, if he moved the glove that much and it's still on the edge of the strike zone then the pitch has to be a ball." In general, Sanchez does not seem to be a good catcher.

Subjectively, Sanchez is one of the worst defensive C's in baseball. He has excellent arm strength and that's about it as far as positive attributes. I think his framing stats suggest that he is merely below average rather than terrible. I will venture that if his framing stats are only below average its because there have historically been umpires who are inclined to expand the strike zone in Yankee stadium. Maybe that's my Jays bias showing:)

At the moment I only see 1 impact position prospect that is close to joining the Jays. Moreno maybe in the 2nd half of 2022 unless traded.

Espinal (no longer a prospect), O Lopez and K Smith I don't see as impact players. I doubt that all 3 are on the Jays next year because of playing time issues. Injuries will provide an opportunity for regular playing time. Espinal got more (not regular) playing time by beating out Panik. Currently Lamb is our 3B so Smith and Lopez are not getting any playing time.

Leaving Dickerson in was the right move.

Yep. Neither Grichuk nor Dickerson has a very big platoon split, Grichuk is somewhat more likely to hit into a DP, and it was too early anyway.

" Currently Lamb is our 3b so Smith and Lopez are not getting any playing time."

Otto Lopez is back in Buffalo, bpoz. Maybe you were thinking of Valera. Lamb isn't doing much hitting-wise but he does seem to grind out at-bats. Third base has been kind of a black hole for the Jays this season. Imagine what an even slightly above average player there would add to the lineup.

Thanks ISLAND BOY. I knew that Lopez was in Buffalo and Valera and Lamb were with us. I cannot remember what the plan was for 3B. Vlad?, he worked hard for it. Biggio? probably because he is an intelligent player with a high OBP in 2019 & 2020. But he got injured. Nobody has been good enough to claim 3B this year.

So I was thinking of 2022. Do we pay for a good experienced player via FA (trade) or go with kids?

So 3B and C have candidates currently. Kirk seems like the only one with a good bat.

José Berríos would look quite fine in the road grey uniform tonight. That's the only one featuring "Toronto" at the letters. However, the other uniform colours evidently keep the players feeling cooler in the summer heat. Berríos pitches best in the home white uniform: August 1st, 7th, 24th, & September 4th. As well, Robbie Ray certainly seems best in the dark blue.

Still say try Lourdes at 3B.

Lourdes at 3B may work. Strong arm for sure. Accurate?? What about quick reflexes?

Z Britton had TJ. I wonder if he is under contract to NYY for next year.

As we are now into September how does this team compare to Jays of the past?

Runs/Game: 7th (all who did better were 1st, 2nd, or 3rd)
HR/game: 2nd (#1 is 2010 with 1.59 HR per game vs this years 1.55. 2019 and 2000 also hit 1.5+ per game.
Triples: 4th lowest at 0.09 per game - worse are 2017, 2020, 2009. Most was 1984 at 0.42 per game (lots of super-aggressive runners back then)

DP turned per game: 3rd lowest - I was shocked by this one as they seem to do it all the time but only 0.77 per game, lowest was 1992 at 0.67, 2nd lowest is 1991, 4th is 2020.

RA per game: 6th best in Jays history.
Shutouts: 5th best, just 3 behind the record set in 1988
SO/game: #1 by a mile at 9.02, 2nd is 2020 at 8.65, 3rd is 2017 at 8.47
BB/game: #6 in Jays history at 2.91
9th oldest pitching staff ever at 29.2 years old. Years at 30+ were 1992, 1998, 2013.
With 1 complete game this team cannot be the worst for that, 0 CG's in 2018, 2020, and 2016. FYI: those 3 years combined for as many team shutouts as we've seen this year.
WHIP: 2nd best in Jays history at 1.232 (2015 is #1)

Current 1st in AL in HR (5th time in Jays history), Slg (7th time), OPS (5th time), youngest lineup (6th time - others were 2020 and 2019, 1980-1981-1990)
For pitching, only lead in team shutouts in the AL (last led league in that in 1997, also did it in 1982, 1988, 1991).

Taken out-of-context from MLBTR:and outfielder Jonathan Davis was designated for assignment to open a spot on the 40-man roster for Romano.
it would seem to be a roster move the Blue Jays made earlier this year. In fact, the "Romano" in question is Sal Romano, and the team doing the DFAing is the Yankees.. Just thought it was kinda funny.

Still say try Lourdes at 3B.

He's got the arm, but I don't think he has the kind of quick twitch reactions you need at third. His first step isn't good enough. You can even see it when he's running the bases - he's fast enough once he gets going, but it takes him a bit longer to get going.

Britton his getting 13M from the Yanks this year and 14M next year.
Not a huge deal for them as they will blow over the tax threshold.

DP turned per game is the wrong metric.
You can't turn double plays if there is nobody on first base.

No thanks to Gurriel at 3B. I'm still not over the trauma of Gurriel as a middle infielder. Gurriel's best defensive positions are DH and occasional OF when all your other options have broken their legs (and even then, you might go with the one with the least broken leg).

When the offense is producing, you don't change anything.

Also, I remember when Springer first came back and they asked Semien how it would affect him--going from first to third.
I expected him to say something like "my approach doesn't change" .
Instead he said that it will take him some time to get used to it.

Once the first inning is over, you can imagine that Dickerson (or whoever) is batting 9th.
The difference is not that Dickerson will come to the plate in high leverage situation--that is totally random.
The difference is that Dickerson--or whoever will finish the game in that spot--might get an extra AB over some guys at the bottom.
If that nets an extra AB for someone on the bench in a 6-3 win, it's alright.

Oakland won today. The WC race has really tightened up. Here are the standings:

Boston +0.5
NYY -
Tor 1.5 GB
Sea 2.5 GB
Oak 2.5 GB

And this weekend while the Yankees get the still-competing Mets and the Red Sox face the 3 best starters on the White Sox, Oakland hosts Texas and Seattle hosts Arizona.

Boston is on the road and they'll go to Seattle next.

Let's give credit to Montoyo for leading off Bichette today who looked cold as ice. Not an obvious choice but Bichette has risen to the challenge.

If I'm Bo, I'm stealing once Guerrero has a full count.
The odds of Sanchez catching a strike and throwing up a runner are pretty low.

It makes tons of sense.
Bo doesn't care where he hits and he can see a lot of pitches.

Grichuk has had a tough season but he can make up for it with a good month of September. That was a big hit for him in a huge game.

No matter the result of today's game it's very clear which team is actually better and would be a more formidable opponent if in the playoffs.

BaseRuns provides a good way of measuring the overall quality of a club.  In the American League, the Astros are +157, the Jays are +131, the Rays are +122 and the White Sox are +112.  Next in the AL are the Yankees at +66.  Taking into account quality of competition, the Jays are right there with the Rays and fairly close to the Astros. 

I hope Montoyo lets Berrios pitch the seventh. He made a mistake to Rizzo (after a fluke hit by Judge), but he has been sharp otherwise.

Fantastic start by Berrios. ESPN recently gave the Jays a D for their deadline moves. Ridiculous. Hand was a terrible acquisition, but Berrios, Cimber/Dickerson, Richards and even Soria were all good moves.

Nothing to do with the action, but goatee Grichuk belongs in the Mirror Universe.

Had to walk Jansen there. He’s an offensive force of nature since July 1. Lol

As good as the team has been this month, they could find another gear when Springer, Espinal and Biggio return.

First of all, terrific 2-0 pitch by Mayza to Stanton to escape a jam with two on, one out in the eighth. Love that he executed so precisely under pressure.

Second, why are the umps checking the Jays pitchers’ gear so often this series? Is this being done at the behest of Boone? How many times a game can he request that this be done?

What a delightful at bat, with an even more delightful result. What a hitter.

why are the umps checking the Jays pitchers’ gear so often this series?

I think it's routine, I think everyone's getting checked. But the cameras are staying on the Jays pitchers, especially the relievers, when they finish an inning.

What a huge series. I was hoping for 3/4. A sweep is amazing.

"When the offense is producing, you don't change anything."

Unless of course change is the secret to your production.

From ESPN STATS:

First time since 1908, the Yankees were swept in a four-game home series while never leading

Who predicted that the Jays rotation would be leading the charge - this is why sports can be such fun.

Credit where credit is due, I thought Montoyo had a heck of a night tonight. His bullpen management was particularly gutsy.

I'm not sure there's a cooler more encouraging image for me than in the late inning of a playoffs race, in Yankee stadium, with the base loaded in a one run game.....seeing 22yr old Vladdy holding court in the dug out entertaining vets berrios Soria and teosacar with some great tale like nothing more important is going on.


Just awesome.


And then vladdy follows it up with a game sealing homer the next ups.

"ESPN recently gave the Jays a D for their deadline moves. Ridiculous. Hand was a terrible acquisition, but Berrios, Cimber/Dickerson, Richards and even Soria were all good moves."

Yep.

Berrios alone was the trade of the deadline.

God bless shapirikins.

Look I know I am crazy, and I have said alot of bad things about Nate Pearson for 4~ years now mostly in regards to his non existent command/control.
But can someone try to explain to me why the Jays wanna expose him more, kill his remaining trade value when it is evident he has no clue where his pitches are going and clearly won't help the team now?
Thanks, I'll hang up and listen.

Velocity. 101 MPH.

Might be dumb, but the radar gun is impressive.

If folks haven't seen it, this article from 538 covers how the Jays are one of the best teams in baseball but might miss the playoffs, and if that happens they'll be one of the best teams to ever miss the playoffs, at least in some of the more modern expanded playoff formats. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mlbs-hottest-team-is-in-danger-of-missing-the-playoffs/

I don't really see Cimber/Dickerson, Richards (and Bowden Francis) as deadline acquisitions since those trades happened earlier.

Hand will always look like a bad move. E
Berrios looks like a B now.
Soria, I'd give a C. He missed a lot of time and hasn't been consistent.

Maybe they made those trades on the account of their coaching (mostly Walker) being able to fix those pitchers.
If that's the case, they are fair gambles.
Otherwise, it's just hoping that guys with good records would make adjustments down the road.

I like how they found the right role players, even after the trade deadline.

They put a lot of effort into clubhouse culture and it's great to watch.
Part of it was Montoyo letting guys play and showing encouragement even when the results were not good.

Across the field, the culture looks like better grooming and smashing stuff in the dugout.
The Yankees has often been a team that let players develop elsewhere.
Did they have real success at developing players since Jeter?
Judge is heading into his last year of arbitration and it's not clear what they will do with him.
Shorter contract with higher AAV?
Stanton is there for a long time.

I looked up Stanton's contract: 5 more years at an average of 30 million a year, then 25 million in his age 37 year. I can't imagine fans being happy with him loafing around the bases on that double attempt where Gurriel threw him out.

I think Pearson needs a year, or most of one, at AAA just to get some innings in, stay healthy if possible, and just learn how to pitch. I get that the Jays want to use his electric arm in the bullpen but it's obvious that he shouldn't be used in any high leverage situations.

Seven straight over the A's and Yankees, what a winning streak! The only thing better than 4 wins at New York would be 4 at Fenway to shut up their mouthy fans.

Financial flexibility Shapiro says is very important. He also likes a strong farm.

Definitely TB is the best at both. Having few fans is a big factor in this for TB.

Shapiro's plan has to now consider Arb and extensions for our young stars. His FA strategy/plans are still a mystery to me.

I'm not superstitious at all, but under no circumstances change the offerings to Jobu!

Pearson has had a very unfortunate 2020 and 2021. Just 5 games in 2020 and only 36IP in 2021 with only 5.1 IP in the Majors. His 1st game was May 9 for the Jays. 2.1 IP with 5BB and shut down after that. Basically 2 lost seasons.

Not a good enough evaluation for Nate. I hope they stick with him because I don't want to see another C Carpenter situation.

Right now, it looks like Pearson needs to keep the slider out of the strike zone.
I don' t think he's going to get beat by the fastball much.
That was a good inning for him to test himself.

Yankees trade deadline moves were
Heaney, D
Gallo, C (Hasn't worked out so far)
Rizzo B (Would be an A but he's taking Voit out of the lineup)

Obviously the deadline deals were an attempt by the buyers to improve their their playoff chances, to make it and win a few series, and to set themselves up for future years. Berrios was a big deal for the 2nd half of this year and for next year.

Cimber for example was a smaller deal for this year and the future.

J Lamb is a very short term pickup just for experienced depth as we try to make the playoffs.

Berrios a B?

Tough crowd.

Berrios alone was the trade of the deadline.

One could argue that getting Riley Adams for the corpse of Brad Hand was the trade of the deadline.

Non-snarkily, I don't think Richards or Cimber were deadline deals either, since they were sufficiently before the deadline.

"Berrios looks like a B now."
"Rizzo B (would be an A but...)"

Since deadline:


1B Rizzo 116pa, .793ops, 118wrc+, 2.7war650
RH Berrios 8gs, 3.63era, 82era-, 4.0war650

I wasn't a fan of the Brad Hand acquisition, but it did fit Atkins' MO when it comes to pitching targets. He was having a down year but his velocity was up. If you look at Atkins' recent pickups (except Berrios) and even the ones dating back to his first year, they mostly seem to fit under that umbrella (P's with down performance but normal or increased velocity). A lot of credit should go to Pete Walker for fixing most of these pitchers (and doing it quickly), but he can't fix all of them, and Hand just happened to be one that couldn't be fixed. Thankfully they cut bait when they did, otherwise he would have still been used in high leverage spots.

The Berrios deal wasn't about Berrios himself, it was about what the Jays gave up to get him. He's a very good SP. The question was whether he was worth the prospect capital they gave up for him. Certainly if our perception of Austin Martin did not match his actual value to the FO/industry, then that would explain why he was moved, but just seeing his name being sent in that trade was very shocking at the time. We will see how it looks down the road, but all that matters at this point is if Berrios holds up his end and hopefully signs an extension down the road.

Don't worry about Martin. He's a slap hitter that can't hit or field.

https://twitter.com/No_Context_Jays/status/1436111357707948034?s=19

I think Berrios is a B+ to A- depending on the next few weeks. An innings eater is huge given the BP, especially one who can dominate when on.

Gallo on the other hand, I suspect, would not be rated a C by many Yankee fans. He’s been a strike out machine. Glad we got Dickerson, particularly at the cheaper price.

Whatever is evident to you from watching the minor league games is likely evident to the rest of baseball, tercet. If Pearson's value has truly taken a dive then the best way to repair it is to have him show some success at the MLB level, not to continue to hide him and hope that someone will ignore the last couple of years of performance and value him as the prospect he once was. Might as well see what he can do as a lower leverage reliever for a month, it helps with building the roster for 2021. He came into the game yesterday as the team's 6th RP on the depth chart, it's not like they are asking a lot from him. If he can't help, they'll go to someone who can.

Oh he hit one hard one wow what a prospect.

Martin and Groshans are quite similar if you look at the full season numbers. Both also kept improving as the season progressed.

Neither Groshans or Martin dominated in 2021. Maybe next year their power shows up.

I see Berrios as a good payroll management strategy. You have to give up something to get something. We gave up 2 high upside prospects, but they are still unknown. Berrios unless injured should give us solid #2/3 SP pitching.

And the farm is not bare. Definitely weakened.

A slap hitter is one who does not hit a lot of homeruns. This is Espinal IMO even if he gets 350-400 ABs per season. I will compare Espinal to Goins. Both should be bench players that provide good defense. For Goins 376 and 418 ABs in 2015 and 2017 for the Jays which were 2 of his best seasons. Still a nice career with good money.

Oh he hit one hard one wow what a prospect.

The certitude you have that a prospect currently appearing on basically every top 100 prospect list out there, even after midseason updates (see #38 at MLB.com for example), is a busted prospected is, frankly, astounding.

Austin Martin is the Jeff Hoffman of hitting prospects.

To me SWR isn’t a big loss although it does hurt more for the Jays given the SP weakness they have in the minors. It’s not that he’s great but that there isn’t a lot more left.

Martin to me is a real loss, even if he kinda ends up being another guy like Biggio. Basically a plus bat with no real position other than 2B. But to me that 1.5 years of Berrios is worth that. Especially next year when there is a real need for quality starting pitching. This gives a lot more financial flexibility and gives a better chance at making other Semien like moves or extending some of our young guys early. If we went into the offseason knowing we had to spend 25 million for a SP just before anything else it would restrict flexibility quite a lot. Now we have to pay not very much for a solid number 2 and don’t have to be stuck in an arms war in the offseason.

Or the Jays front office could you know, sign Berrios to an extension and win the trade.

AA

Biggio (23): 563pa, 17.8bb%, 0.9hbp%, 26.3k%, .307bip/.252avg, .247iso, 145wrc+
Martin (22): 384pa, 13.8bb%, 6.3hbp%, 20.8k%, .342bip/.266avg, .115iso, 127wrc+


only thing keeping Martin above water right now is some babip luck (which has been regressing since the trade) and that hilarious HBP% (i don't think HBP is a carrying tool).

Your obsession with diminishing Martin is starting to look pathalogical, ugly. Take a deep breath and let it go, man. Let it go.

Seriously.

At age 22, Biggio (who I am a big fan of) was in the FSL and hit .233/.342/.363.  He struck out more, walked about the same amount and had about the same IsoP as Martin but at a lower developmental level.  Biggio worked hard at his craft and developed from there, but Martin starts out with significantly more talent at the same age.  We'll see if he develops that talent as Biggio did.  Martin has battled injuries, both in college and in the minors.  That may be the biggest obstacle he has to overcome. 

I'm not diminishing him, i'm revealing him.

and why would i let it go?

I don't think uglyone's analysis of Martin is pathological. It seems like argumentation with data that supports it. On the contrary,I think the pathological analysis is off base. We should support argumentation even if we disagree and not resort to name-calling.

it's not like I even brought him up!

You're right - it was just me being glib and not meant in any serious way. I was just trying to highlight the focus, but should have chosen another way to do it.

Now, I happen to also disagree with parts of his analysis, but I'll put that in a post separate from my mea culpa.

Honestly though - what is it you like about Martin? This was supposed to be a very advanced prospect, not a project. He doesn't have the loud raw physical tools that you project for great improvement going forward - he was drafted that high because he was supposedly already that good.

His hit tool was supposed to be advanced - but he's hitting in the 260s even with a still generous (but quickly regressing) babip.

His power levels aren't just "below expected", but entirely absent. And again he's not a guy with projected huge raw power to grow into anyways.

Even his walk and strikeout rates are only good, not great.

It looks like minny may have already given up on the SS dream defensively, and now they're hoping he can be a CF, despite not being overly or fast nor showing natural defensive acumen.

The only thing great he's done this year is somehow get hit by pitches 24 times. That's pretty amazing, admittedly.

I dunno I just don't see where his avenue to success is.

Should have drafted Zac Veen.

The Berrios deal wasn't about Berrios himself, it was about what the Jays gave up to get him. He's a very good SP. The question was whether he was worth the prospect capital they gave up for him.

In assessing whether he was worth the capital, you also have to consider the alternatives - trading for a lesser pitcher, or doing nothing at all. The next best starter available* was what, Kyle Gibson? He would not have moved the needle on making this team better. And if you're not going to pull the trigger when you've got 2 of the top 3 MVP candidates and a top 3 Cy Young candidate and one of the best run differentials in the league... when exactly are you going to pull the trigger?

*Scherzer, or course, is an even better starter who was traded. But he wasn't actually available to the Jays.

Very honest and fair assessment of Martin's 300 ABs so far UO. Maybe another 600 minor league ABs will show better for him.

Most prospects fail so "failing lists" for top 100 prospects is expected. Sometimes it is injuries. Same with top 30 lists and draft ranking lists.

So how the heck did Manoah do what he did? IMO nobody including our FO thought he was this good. Manoah's start is great just like D Stieb. Better than any of our other home grown SPs. J Guzman was another one with a great start.

Jonny German - agreed on all of that. I'll add that Berrios (good and durable), given his salary and one more year before UFA, was the trade target whose actual or perceived list of suitors would have been the longest at the deadline. I know that if I were the Jays, I would have assumed that the competing bids were high (whether that would have been accurate or not, who knows).

Good analysis Jonny German.

I definitely recognized the great years Vlad, Semien and Ray were having. But I believed the chances of the Jays making the playoffs was below 50% at the time. They were well back in the standings then. Berrios for 1.5 years was way too expensive based on the generally accepted evaluations throughout baseball as far as I know. Minnesota thought that they were not being cheated I imagine.

When Detroit traded Verlander and cash (it is only money) and a player to be named later to Houston they received Daz Cameron, Franklin Perez and Jake Rogers. That did not work out for Detroit.

Well, a starter who is good half the time and bad half the time is worth a C at most.
A starter who is good more often than bad gets a B.
A starter who gives you a quality start every time would be worth an A.

Berrios had that terrible 6 run outing in Washington and that other not that great outing against the White Sox in which he only lasted 4 innings.
He's definitively trending in the right direction but, for now, a B seems fair.

In the series against the Jays, Rizzo was very good.
Was he not their best hitter in that series?
Well worth a B, I think.

"Very honest and fair assessment of Martin's 300 ABs so far UO. Maybe another 600 minor league ABs will show better for him."

When considering small sample size, remember that Martin's entire college career consists of 543ab.

His last 2yrs of college - the only time he put up elite performance - consists of 321ab.

I feel it's the lack of defensive value that's the problem with Martin.
Would he have worked out in center field? Probably not.
Does he leave a hole in the Jays depth chart. No.

Berrios has only 1 year remaining, but maybe they can extend him or get him to play a QO.

I look forward to the spirited debate and spilled ink after the Jays trade some TOP prospects for Jose Ramirez. Perfect piece for '22-23.

I didn't say my opinion of him hasn't changed - the potential to move down the defensive spectrum seems to have increased, and the power is going to be something to watch. Having said that, I still have him a lot higher than you, probably a mid-back top-100. Still plenty of value and utility, though not as much as a year ago.

As for your analyses, even the most advanced college prospects don't hatch from the egg fully formed. Think of judging Andrew Vaughn's power after his first 245 PAs at 21, at R, A and A+. Power was his calling card, and yet he only had 6 HRs and 17 2B, without any injury problems or large numbers of HBP. I bring that up because you muse over Martin's HBP sustainability without mentioning the potential impact it's had on his power, given that he's missed time with HBP hand issues, if I recall right. If Martin wants to get to his power, he'll probably need to deal with this either by getting hit less or getting hit 'better'. Vaughn's exit velos have been good, and wherever fangraphs gets theirs from for prospects indicates Martin is (or was) good there, too.

Your comparison to Biggio ignores the experience factor as well, and other things. Cavan had 189 games and 3 years previous experience (vs a bit of alternate site work for Martin). It also ignores the short right porch in NH, which is a boon to pull-side LHB flyball hitters. Additionally, I thought the consensus in the prospect ranking community (except the most stubborn) was that they were all too low on Biggio, and that they underestimated the impact of his discipline.

Anyway, I'm not going to be able to do my thoughts justice today - I didn't get to this til now because of work, and now I have to work some more. And really, I'm not sure how much more I care on the issue - my mindset for myself is leaning on "He's gone, get over it," - and hope he does well in Minnesota. I just feel the rush-to-judgement dumping-upon for someone scouts had in high esteem while he's still in his first season of pro games something that needs to be pushed back upon. Small Sample Sizes (especially on the development curve) are things that need to be called out even in Normal Times, and these are not Normal Times.

"Well, a starter who is good half the time and bad half the time is worth a C at most.
A starter who is good more often than bad gets a B.
A starter who gives you a quality start every time would be worth an A."

0 bad starts seems a high bar imo.

Here's his game log in order of imo best to worst:

7.0ip, 0er
6.0ip, 0er
6.0ip, 1er
6.2ip, 2er
6.2ip, 3er
5.0ip, 2er
4.1ip, 6er
3.0ip, 4er

Martin suffered a hand injury earlier in the season which can certainly impact power, so it’s too early to write him off.

However, the Jays paid the going rate for a year plus of a very good pitcher that times well with a playoff run this year and next. So much as I hate seeing Martin and SWR traded, I don’t have a major issue with the trade regardless of how they turn out. The cupboard is pretty bare for high end pitchers in the Jays system over the next couple of years, and they have not had a lot of luck historically in attracting top FAs … though things have improved in the last two years (ie Ryu and Springer).

Just a couple points:

1. Vaughan posted a .158iso in his debut milb year, and now has a .169iso in his first year in the bigs.....pretty much the same. Overall, as a not-young rookie he's been bang on league average at the plate - not exactly the kind of performance expected of a 23yr old 60fv all-bat prospect. Maybe those mediocre power and contact numbers in A ball shouldn't have been ignored.

Of course, Martin doesn't even have mediocre power numbers - his power numbers are closer to a guy like Reese McGuire's were at the same level.

And Vaughn had a more promising line in general - significantly more power but fewer strikeouts, similar weak batting average but at least not needing a high babip to get there....plus he does have one big tool to maybe dream on a bit despite his age - power. Though I'm not sure how much I'd dream on it anymore.


2. "just feel the rush-to-judgement dumping-upon for someone scouts had in high esteem while he's still in his first season of pro games something that needs to be pushed back upon."

This is where we differ - I think that the first year post draft, for older college guys using wood bats for the first time, is arguably the most important and urgent time to quickly sort out Hype from Substance - and capitalize if you can on a guy who quickly shows he's a different level of prospect than his draft status showed. Remember - all the scouting reports we're talking about are already well out of date - and any scouting report from his pro games so far have been concerning. This is why in all our pre-trade deadline threads I highlghted Martin as the perfect guy for us to trade - a guy who imo had already shown (literally) that he was not the caliber of prospect that many thought on draft day, but still had the shine of one.


3. "Small Sample Sizes (especially on the development curve) are things that need to be called out even in Normal Times, and these are not Normal Times."

See, but it's not small sample. He's got as big a sample as a pro as the entire record of his elite performance in college - and as such his college stats and scouting reports are already nearing worthlessness. It will be much more interesting to see scouting reports on him from this actual pro season, rather than from a much less useful sample in college.


All of this is especially important in regards to exactly this type of prospect that Martin is - an older, non-toolsy prospect. It would be much more of a rush to judgeement on a younger toolsy kid.