Apparently the Tigers starter for Sunday is our old friend Drew Hutchison.

The Jays got lucky, they were originally slated to face both Mize and Skubal in each of the two upcoming series vs. Detroit.

The Tigers started off a terrible 9-24, but since then they have been playing solid ball and are 49-41.

And a second baseman.

But Schoop? Ohhhh, he's playing first base now. That seems weird.

Julian Merryweather has had a little setback. He has general soreness after his last game and his next appearance will likely be pushed back.

There are between 2 and 5 solar eclipses a year. Merryweather has managed 15 appearances in the past 3 years. When you are able to play as often as a solar eclipse, that news falls in the "unsurprising" category.

Nigel: too bad the next Solar isn't until December. Guess no more Merryweather this year then :). April 30th and October 25 next year so maybe he'll help the Jays win a WS next year! Hey, gotta look on the bright side, even in an eclipse.

I said this last week but I will repeat myself.

Managers prefer catchers who are strong defensively. Kirk is not strong defensively. I think his throwing is weak and he is not athletic behind the dish.

The problem is he can't play anywhere else, except DH.

Should he be the catcher the Jays trade this off-season?

Gerry. The Jays look strong for position players. This off season will require the acquisition or reaquisition of pitching. I think Kirk should be used to get a starter. Hoping Ray will resign as well.

Pitchers are looking great with Kirk behind the plate lately, horrendous with Reese back there.

I imagine Kirk's cERA lead over the other two catchers this year last time we checked has increased hugely over the last couple weeks.

We just pulled Kirk with a risk for breyvic fricken Valera to BUNT

What in frocken hell Montoya.

We deserve to lose.

I’m speechless with the stupidity of this move

Fire him.

Yeah I’d say that’s pretty indefensible.

Shockingly stupid move..

Concur.  Bad move to pinch-hit for Kirk on a telegraphed bunt. 

So who's the next Jays manager? Somebody good I hope.

Too many things go sideways with this team and it’s becoming a bit more clear why that is. May be a bit early to throw in the towel but I’m looking forward to seeing some prospects.

Pinch hitting for Kirk is indefensible in ANY situation.

Bunting in that situation is also indefensible.

Bringing in AAA fodder like Valera in that situation is unbelievably indefensible.

One of the worst manager decisions I have ever witnessed.

At the game. It was even worse because Valera squared so early the 1st basement was passed the mound by the time the ball got to the plate

I'm losing my mind at this decision... there isn't any plausible argument to remotely explain it nevermind defend it. A causal beer league wouldn't do something so foolish. Just WOW.

And Randall hits into another double play! Shocker! He must be close to league leader. Let’s see what Palacios or Wall can do.

I would rather have Kirk with the option to bunt.  If Schoop plays where he did, Kirk swings away. 

Not one criticism or question from the broadcast crew. What a joke

Yeah, I just can't anymore. The Jays have always made lots of unforced errors in my memory. But usually it was the players.I was indifferent but optimistic about Montoyo, but I don't think he has anything to offer any more. I have zero evidence, but this just feels like managing out of insecurity to show that his guys can bunt too.
0/9 RISP and 4 DPs is failure of execution, but that's even more reason not to give up outs with a bunt.

Bunting is fine but bringing in a guy to telegraph the bunt is pretty dumb. Just let Kirk do it.

I can understand pinch running for Kirk, but that's it.

Breyvic Valera has a 42wrc+ this year, 56wrc+ career.

And we used him as a pinch hitter in the bottom of the 9th for one of our better hitters.

With the intention of handing a first out to a pitcher that had walked the first two batters.

The more I think about it the worse it gets.

Thatbwas as good a bunt as you're going tonget from a lefty lefty matchup featuring 100mph bullets. Almost punched it through. But it still wasn't enough. Kirknwas our best chance.

Outside of Vladdy, they bunted for the player with the best strike zone control on the team when the pitcher had no control. Shockingly bad.

It's so terrible. I'm so upset with this move and I feel this way about Montoyo. Alejandro Kirk let the game-tying run get behind him but had a chance to win the game with any solid base hit. To deny him that opportunity for Valera to bunt is inexcusable.

And he did to to give Randal fricking Grichuk the one opportunity at a sac fly.

Richards coming up huge right now. Hope he can pull through.
I'm also thinking this PH/ bunt move worse and worse the more I think about it. And I think Valera is at least interesting to have on the roster. The points about losing the chance at redemption is also big.
And single and error as I type this and this loss is Montoyo's if it holds.

Probably Gurriel's worst throw of the season.

The team can't bunt. That's fine... if they'd stop trying to bunt. The situation called for it, conceptually at least (Kirk has a far higher DP rate than even Grichuk after tonight, and the value of the one run was paramount), but the personnel isn't there to execute. It's like they forget they have knees, and just start jabbing at it with their hands.

And if I see one more 2-strike bunt from someone who failed already, I'm going to need to start watching baseball with a pillow so I can cover my screams.

I mean, the bullpen's one thing - managers always screw stuff up there (and often less than fans think, given who is available on a given night), but if he doesn't know this team can't bunt by now, he's just not paying attention.

Indefensible? Hmm. Thats sounds like a challenge.

The thinking could be:
- 1 run wins it. Let’s throw the dice now to win it this inning. Too bad about the next one because we won't be needing Kirk again, right?
- Grichuk is prone to GIDP’s so it would be really good to move the runners over
- Who’s more likely to move the runner’s over? Breyvic or Alejandro?
At least that’s the best argument I could come up with. Either that or Kirk insulted Montoyo’s mother.

Never seen such unanimity on here.

I think what’s happening here is Montoyo prides himself on being a “player’s manager,” because he always gives his players a chance. I see a pattern where a player struggling or about to get DFA’d gets lots of opportunities by Charlie to “prove everyone else wrong.” Brad Hand, Rafael Dolis, Breyvic…

I seriously hope we don't come back to win. This call deserves all the punishment from the baseball Gods.

He’s managing like he has all the job security in the world. That look might work well in AAA while developing players, but at the MLB level chasing a playoff spot it’s out of place for sure.

Fire him tonight.

One thing that we are all overlooking is the fact that we have used our 3 best relief pitchers in a game where our starter went 8IP with 1 run on a wild pitch. Kirk put us in this position with his error which sucks.

Is there somewhere where you can find the Jays success rate in trying to bunt this year? I have to think it's around 10% to 20%.

Note again that the pitching looks awful again the moment Reese is catching.

Fire him tonight.

I would.

Get on the horn to Cito, Gene and Galen.

Have felt for a long time that this team is not a real contender. They have have a fatal flaw in the bullpen that has not been addressed but they also play an uninspired brand of ball. Just too many things go wrong. And I think it’s a manifestation from leadership.

Buck just can't bear to ever criticize a bunt.

Shulman is just a chicken.

Not one damn mention of that horrendous call since.

While we're at it, is it just me, or are they pathetic at getting the ghost runner in?

Chances of Jays making the post season with this BP and manager was pretty remote coming into the game. Frankly I’d rather they sink like a stone now so that Montoyo is replaced…which I suspect is the only way this happens.

They can upgrade the BP next year, but they clearly need to upgrade the manager. Nice guy but we need someone that knows how to win.

Just tuning in now. Can someone summarize for me what happened in the bottom of the ninth?

Just read up.

Totally agreed Krose. This team reeks of playing a system. Montoyo is not a leader of any sort and it carries through to how the team plays. Especially when the chips are down and they need to adjust their approach and can’t. Just like Gulutzan with the Flames he needs to go.

That's probably the season.

And the postgame is only dealing with wild pitch and the leg out crouch. Nothing on the PH.

Reading the ESPN Gameday play-by-play, I’m very confused. Bottom 9, runners on first and second, none out, you have to let Kirk swing away (or work a walk) in that situation, no? There is a good chance he wins it then and there.

Why would you pinch-hit a talented hitter with a mediocre one in that situation?

they also play an uninspired brand of ball“

Been feeling for a while that this team is more interested in having a good time than winning ballgames. Firing a manger can be a wake up call for players too, sending the message that underachieving is unacceptable.

Yeah the shennangins are fun and it’s nice to see the players enjoying themselves, but Instead of dancing around the dugout after a base hit, how about saving the dances till you win the ballgame…

There is nothing mediocre about Valera as a hitter.

He is an awful hitter. Full stop.

Is Montoyo going to talk to the press tonight? That should be interesting.

Pressure situations are when you should be judged as a manager in baseball. This game and bringing Hand in to the game the other day are unforgivably dumb decisions. I’d have no confidence in the manager if I were on the team.

You can’t expect Rogers employees to criticize the manager. Not going to happen. Don’t expect any on air criticism of Montoyo.

Hinch bunted with his catcher in the 8th.
Playing for the tie late on the road is not a good move, but they did tie it because of a wild pitch/passed ball.

Bunting for Kirk makes a lot of sense.
One run wins the game here.
Kirk runs poorly and so is a candidate for an easy double play.
I don't like it because the pitcher had already walked 2 guys.
What screwed everything up was Schoop playing in front of the pitcher.
Not sure how to respond here. Try a double steal?
There's no reason to think that Kirk would have had a hit here against this guy.
There is maybe a 20-25% chance.
They hit into lots of double play balls today and the runners were there mostly on walks.

After that, Richards was good until they pinched hit.
Walker explained what he wanted and that led to a slap in the outfield.
Normally Gurriel is money out there but he missed the plate by at least 30 feet.

Cimber did not get the outside call on Schoop.
That was pretty much the game there.
He can't survive without the outside corner.

Then in the next inning it must have been getting late because Soto was getting strikes several inches off the plate.
Those same pitches that loaded the bases in the previous inning led to a quick inning. 

The balls/strikes call in extra made all the differences. Balls called strikes against the Jays. Strikes called balls against the Tigers.

The absolute worst strategic manager in Blue Jays history. Don't even think it's close either.

It's time for Mark and Ross to actually get serious in 2022.

This seems like a good point to remind people that Buck Martinez was a blue jay manager, and he was worse at it than he is in the booth.

Tigers manager A.J. Hinch "When they take Kirk out of the game, they're not doing that to hit. Kirk can really hit."

Can they really continue with Montoyo when the opposing manager clowns on him like this?

Other teams understand how good Kirk is, at least.

Tigers manager AJ Hinch: "When they take Kirk out of the game, they're not doing that to hit. Kirk can really hit."

— Ian Harrison (@iananywhere) August 21, 2021

Apart from its impact on the outcome of the game, shouldn’t the Jays want to allow Kirk to hit in that situation to build his (not Valera’s) confidence for the long term?

Montoyo is holding this team back and is in over his head in this role. When other managers openly question his decisions, it becomes even more clear.

I just hope the FO is aware of that and takes the appropriate action this winter.

If they're "aware it's the right decision", then there's no reason to wait until winter.

Unfortunately, I’m not sure the FO feels the same way we do, that’s why I said “I hope”. I said before, you hire a career minor league manager to manage a rebuilding/tanking team, not one with playoff aspirations. If Montoyo was just an average manager, I probably wouldn’t care, but he is likely the worst one in the league. In the AL East with no margin for error, the Jays need a manager that can soak up as many incremental wins as possible. Montoyo has done the opposite this season. AJ Hinch on the Tigers is a good example of what a real manager could do to a team of young players.

The “brain trust” also needs to figure out how a team so talented with the bat can be one of the worst performers in late innings (6 onwards), including now sitting at 2-8 in extras. Yet again for three innings in a row late in the game they had a man at second base with nobody out and couldn’t get him home.

If this was game 50, it’s likely a coincidence. At game 120, it’s a major issue. Montoyo’s response when queried was “they’re good hitters, they’ll figure it out”. Clearly not.

The Jays are now challenging the Leafs for the most frustrating sports team in Toronto. And the manager, challenged as he is, is only one part of it.

I’ve made my views known about Montoyo since his first season (ie that he felt like the player development manager and not the playoff team manager). But I think we need to be careful in calling him the worst manager in the league etc. In game strategy is only a small part of a manager’s duties. Most of what they do is unseen by fans and hard to measure. Things like clubhouse management, individual player development, team “preparedness”, etc are all part of his job. I’ve always suspected that Montoyo was pretty good at those parts of the job. I still think Montoyo is a “horses fan courses” manager. He was a good choice at one stage of the success curve, not so much now.

for not fan - duh

Time to also call out Springer. The amount of time he’s missed for a big investment is costing us a playoff spot. We’re clearly a different team when he’s playing. I went back to look at the other available free agents but it looks like he’s smoking JT Realmuto and DJ Lemahieu this year, even with shortened time. Trevor Bauer is the only free agent that has “worked out.”

Ah, forget it, I’m just going to blame this lost season on Nate Pearson, what a tease. Robbie Ray is gonna win a Cy Young and we’re gonna miss the playoffs. Vladdy is in the MVP discussion and we’re gonna miss the playoffs.

Charlie Montoyo: “we didn’t execute.”

Anybody know what the setback is that Julian Merryweather had on his rehab? He’s gotta be the reincarnation of Rocco Baldelli.

Honestly question why are folks so frustrated? If you knew before spring training that Springer would miss a ton of time and virtually all the pen signings/options would implode or be injured, would you be happy with the Jays won/loss record?

They were supposed to be a fringe wc team. That's what they've been. Would we be happier if they got to this point the way the Mariners have?

Springer has 1.7 WAR in 49 games this year. Realmuto has 3.2 WAR in 100 games. Looks like a dead heat to me. Both players have been good.

Chris, I think the frustration stems from the discrepancy between the team’s run differential and its W-L record. This team should be a frontrunner in the WC race, but instead it’s well off the pace.

I had this team for about 84 wins before the year started. In my view, this team has been very lucky (leaving aside in game luck) and had almost every big “input” break right for them but for the Springer injury. With only one or two exceptions, what has happened in the pen was about what should have been predicted. What the team has gotten out of its starters, is way beyond the best reasonable case scenario. Frankly, what they’ve gotten out of the top 4 in the lineup is at the very upper end of reasonable expectations. I guess I’m frustrated because I don’t expect the team to be this fortunate next year.

If you knew before spring training that Semien and Ray would lead AL hitters and pitchers in WAR and that Vlad would breakout to an MVP-calibre hitter you'd be quite disappointed that the Jays are in 4th place at the end of August. Bullpens really aren't that hard to manage.

Did the front office map out last night's bunt before the game yesterday, or are we allowed to criticize the manager for that one?

It hasn't been mentioned yet in here that Grichuk had already failed with a runner on third and less than two outs earlier in the game, making the decision all the more indefensible.

He's just saying that Valera was bunting. We all know that. Not a surprise play.
Kirk is hitting .268 for the year. Gurriel is hitting .267 and nobody is saying that Gurriel can really hit right now.

The Jays had 5 hits over 10 innings.
They also had 5 walks and that extra runners on second in the 10th.
The only run that scored was Guerrero's solo shot.
They hit into 3 double play. (Bichette, Grichuk and Gurrero).
Kirk was hitting up to the 6th spot.
Smith, Espinal and Kirk had 1 hit each, but Grichuk, Bichette and Semien went 0 for 4 and Hernandez went 0 for 3.

Maybe they should have tried to steal a base or two, but they tend to wait for their big hitter to hit homeruns.
That leads to an all or nothing result. Some days you score 3 runs, some days you score none.

Montoyo has Lopez and Smith on the bench but doesn't really know what to do with them.
Espinal got on base twice, so good enough.
Can't really sit the big guys or plunk in infielder in left field.

Cimber does not look well suited for those late inning moments.
He induces a lot of ground balls and gives up a lot of singles.
That works better if he starts from a clean inning as then it takes 3 singles to score a run.

Catchers should not be playing on one knee with runners on third.
Certainly not on breaking balls.
I think that's a coaching failure, here.

Put this another way - how many players on this team are underperforming expectations (or were when playing)? Jansen, maybe Gurriel and ….. if this was a fringe playoff team to start the year and every single player is having a year that ranges between expected and blowing the doors off expectations, don’t you expect to be a playoff team and kind of frustrated when that isn’t happening?

At least we seem to have settled the question of who's making these late game decisions.

That was disturbing, like a rookie pressing and trying to do things he can't do and doesn't normally do anyway. Don't expect that from the manager.

Montoyo does things that no other manager in baseball does. I know some here will say bunting with 2 strikes might have been on the player (Espinal, IIRC), but it has happened more than once. I legitimately do not recall ever seeing a non-pitcher bunt with 2 strikes before, and I've watched baseball for 30 years. The Jays under Montoyo have done it more than once, which seems to suggest that even if a player decided to go rogue and try it one night, it wasn't an outlier. There is also the fact that Montoyo continuously does not know who his best players are and when to use them. Whether it's using a washed Brad Hand in high leverage spots even though he hasn't been good in over a year, or playing Joe Panik over Espinal, Tellez, etc, because he was an all star 6 years ago, or pinch hitting for Kirk with a 30 year old career minor leaguer who can't hit when he (Kirk) is one of the better hitters in the lineup after the top 4-5, etc, etc.

I don't think calling him the worst manager in the league is hyperbole. Usually a statement like that would be an exaggeration by a frustrated fan, but you legitimately see Montoyo do things that no one else would do. This isn't a typical "bad" manager, who most of the time is just a product of the talent on the field. This is a manager who just doesn't put his players in the best positions to succeed on a consistent basis.

SK, I think most of that is fair. But, Montoyo isn’t close to being alone in having those issues. Heck, Gibbons had the issue of poorly deploying his lineup to best advantage in spades. I’d guess Montoyo was something like mid pack in the league on those issues.

As always we make 100% of our judgment of the manager based on a much smaller part of his actual job. But that's all we see. And it doesn't look good.

Put this another way - how many players on this team are underperforming expectations (or were when playing)? Jansen, maybe Gurriel and ….. if this was a fringe playoff team to start the year and every single player is having a year that ranges between expected and blowing the doors off expectations, don’t you expect to be a playoff team and kind of frustrated when that isn’t happening? This is a big part of it for me, and the knowledge that they’re likely to lose their top pitcher and second best hitter (by war) without viable replacements. They have all the pieces but they just can’t put it together

Nice to see some are coming around. I didn't need to see the bunting thing five times, or another bullpen decision gone wrong. I was semi-convinced at the beginning of the season, solidly convinced in June, and now extremely convinced Montoyo is not the guy. As many have already said; Charlie was well suited for a rebuilding team, and well suited for a team under the Jays pandemic circumstances. The Jays need a guy who can manage a bullpen, and find the hot hand more often than not. Sounds too reductionist to say John Gibbons, but I just said it.

I actually think the FO will do it.The White Sox did it to Rick Renteria.

They lost the first game of the playoffs the same way last year.
Jansen was catching on one knee and one of Ray's slider went trough and the runner scored from third.
Can we learn from this already?

Montoyo knows that  they don't hit well against major heat in late innings, so he goes with a play that only requires a bunt and putting the ball in play. Maybe they could have asked Valera to bunt from the left side and push the ball towards third?
With a lefty throwing wicked sliders?

Montoyo prefers to go to more experienced guys in key situations.
That makes a lot of sense. Guerrero, Bichette, Biggio and Kirk don't have a full year of playing time behind them.
It's the same with guys like Overton, Snead and Saucedo who have been up for only a weeks.

Just look at this Tigers lineup. Not a lot of young stars for a club that has been tanking for years and years.

Ultimately, it would be nice if this crew learned to hit lefties.

" I guess I'm frustrated because I don't expect the team to be this fortunate next year."

Well, it is true that they've been fortunate with Ray and Semien performing so well, both were signed free agents so the front office expected something out of them. On the other hand, as of July 29, they were tied for second with the Rays for most man games lost to injury and stood 5th in expected War ( 7.5) lost to injury. Springer has lost a ton of time. Cavan Biggio hasn't been right physically all season, Yates gone before the season, and a whole slew of relief pitchers and some starters out for varying lengths of time. Every team has injuries but on that front I wouldn't consider the Jays fortunate.

The Jays actually grounded into 4 double plays last night, Scottt. Grichuk had two.

And, yeah, I'm with the absolute majority here, that was an asinine move pitch hitting for Kirk. By the way, the Jays ERA in extra innings is 10,38 and their batting average is .149 .

Mike I agree with that last point and his weaknesses really haven’t mattered very much to date in his tenure. Unfortunately, we’ve now reached the point on the success curve where his areas of weakness have become disproportionately important. I think there’s a growing body of evidence to suggest that the wheels come off on his decision making in the kind of “perfect storm” scenarios you describe. I think that’s when you need your manager to keep his head and not lose it.

Unless I missed something from the broader context, I don't see anything wrong with Hinch's comment about taking Kirk out. It's true that Montoyo wasn't trying to get a hit there. That (and the way Valera was standing there telegraphing the bunt) is why Schoop was able to play that far in and ultimately get a pretty close out at 3B.

Island Boy - the team has definitely had injuries. But a huge chunk of games lost have come from Yates, Merryweather, Borucki, Phelps, Mayza, etc. To me, that comes under the category of “meeting expectations”. The FO had a bullpen plan that really didn’t have any chance of working out.

That's how it is for me. I expected this team to be a fringe wild card
contender coming into this season. But they've gotten there by having a
bunch of really good seasons, great underlying stats, run differential
that points to a much better record, and a bunch of coulda/shoulda wins
they left on the table.

Put this another way - how many players on this team are underperforming expectations (or were when playing)? Jansen, maybe Gurriel and ….. if this was a fringe playoff team to start the year and every single player is having a year that ranges between expected and blowing the doors off expectations, don’t you expect to be a playoff team and kind of frustrated when that isn’t happening?

This is what frustrates me. It's amazing how many players on the team are having as good as or better years than expected on a team that was projected to be at least a fringe playoff contender, and yet....they are where they are.

A lot of things definitely went right in terms of performance. The starting rotation has not only been unusually healthy all season but also more than good enough to be a playoff caliber rotation. Then there is the hitting, as discussed. That's what makes this season seem like more of a waste because health and performance isn't guaranteed next season, and the team is losing its 2nd best position player and best SP after this season.

The one thing that I would give the team is the fact that they had to play home games in spring training and minor league facilities for 4 months. If they started playing in Toronto a month or two earlier, it's hard to say how different their record would be, but I would imagine the comfort level and mental aspect of the game would have been much better had that happened. By the time they finally played in Toronto, they basically needed a 2nd half 2015 type of run, and this roster with this manager doesn't have it in them.

The bullpen injuries, to me, are not a valid excuse. Their biggest FA RP signing was a guy whose medicals were bad before the ink dried on the contract. Phelps has had injury history. Merryweather is well documented. Borucki has an injury past. And so on. There's also the fact that Montoyo has built up a bit of a track record for using his good relievers a lot, some times unnecessarily (4-5+ run leads). He watched from the dugout as Ken Giles' arm was hanging by a string and didn't bother to make a pitching change until a pitch or two later, IIRC. I usually like Atkins' bullpen approach, but there was a lot more injury risk than performance risk with the group they put together. Buying low on performance with relievers is not a bad idea. Buying low on medicals with relievers is hit or miss, and the Jays missed in 2021.

I would be steamed if I was Alejandro Kirk in that situation. I've just made a costly mistake in the field and when I have the chance to make up for it the very next inning; the manager takes the bat out of my hands for the team's worst hitter. This is a point that to me is just as inexcusable as the bunt itself. Charlie isn't going to make too many fans in the clubhouse if he's ignoring the human side of the game like that. You have the let the kid try and redeem himself.

Which brings up another point...Why is Montoyo playing for the one run lead considering the unreliability of this bullpen? Why not play for the big inning? It's like he hasn't been watching this team all season. It was just such a bad move on many levels.

I am sure that my last visit to the stadium was in 2012. Jonathan Schoop's rookie year was 2013. Somehow, I have a vivid memory of Schoop playing for Baltimore and hitting a home run into the 200 level, where I was sitting... Dear oh dear, I must be getting old! This is exactly what happens!

Judging by the lack of comments, I take it the majority of Da Box has folded up the tent.
Wilner made a good point recently. I believe he said the last 10 games of the season are 6 against Baltimore and 4 against Minnesota. There's still lots of time.

Not sure what others are thinking but I don’t expect anything to change with this team this season. Hoping to see more of Smith and some of Pearson. Maybe we get a peak at Palacios. As the pressure comes off Vlad and Bo I’ll be interested to see if they can start hitting again.

Wow, Romano trimmed the beard. Well done.

There's still lots of time.

If the Jays get three of Pearson, Soria, Stripling and Merryweather back in a reasonable time frame then we may have a shot. Not holding my breath on the last 3. Right now even the bad teams our pounding our pen.

I wouldn't be surprised if Bichette's and Guerrero's recent 'slumps' (relative to earlier perfomance, anyway) might be due to not being used to the rigours of a full MLB season. If nothing else, this season could be a lesson to them in preparing and pacing themselves for 162 games.

Bo’s OPS for the last few weeks is in the 500’s. . They might be wise to rest him, slide Semien into SS, Smith to 3rd and Espinal to 2nd. Not likely to lose much in terms offence and defence given Bichette’s battered shins and we’ll see what Smith can do.

So, following a deep dive into game logs, I have determined September 17th, 2008 was the game in question.

Aubrey Huff hit the homer, against David Purcey. The white guy, not the black guy, and not five years later. Am I old?

Vlad looks like he did in September 2019 when he admitted he ran out of gas. Bo has the shin contusions and has also looked tired.
It's the first full 162 game season for both of them, and it's coming off that short season last year. Vlad could still stand to work on his conditioning some. Management should've given them some off days here and there earlier on to keep them fresher. I think they'll come back next year better and stronger for this.

In a 1-1 tie with Romano waiting to close, playing for the one run lead is the right move.
Sometimes the wrong moves win and the right moves lose.
 
Guerrero should know by now that he's not going to get anything to hit with runners in scoring position and that he's not getting a fastball to hit on a 3-0 count.

It's hard to rest Bo--or most anybody else--coming off a Monday and a Thursday off.

"the last 10 games of the season are 6 against Baltimore and 4 against Minnesota"

This stretch of weak opponents could help if the Jays are within a game or two of a WC spot. Otherwise it'll be too little, too late. The Jays' main competition for the postseason are all playing well (.500 or over in their last 10 games; the Yankees are 9-1). The Blue Jays? They're 4-6 and falling off the pace.

Wilner made a good point recently. I believe he said the last 10 games of the season are 6 against Baltimore and 4 against Minnesota. There's still lots of time.

Sure...and he also talked about how the Jays had a chance to take advantage of a struggling Angels team and put some distance between the Jays and the Mariners on the West Coast trip, before getting Ray and Ryu against the Tigers, in order to gain some ground in the race before the White Sox came to town.

This team will go as far as Bo & Vlad take them.

AUG DET-1 CWS-4 @DET-3 BALT-2
SEPT BALT-1 OAK-3 @NYY-4 @BALT-4 TB-3 MIN-3 @TB-3 @MIN-4 NYY-3

too little, too late.

"The sip is shrinking"

"This team will go as far as Bo & Vlad take them."

This was true in April and wi be true for another couple of years. Fingers crossed.

The ship is:

(a) seaworthy
(b) listing
(c) sinking
(d) grounded
(e) at risk of mutiny
(f) in need of bullpen reinforcements

Not sure what your issue with all that was, Thomas; Wilner was correct back then, even if he often takes silly stances.

The Jays are a better team than OAK and BOS, and it will be a disappointment if they can't make up these 3 games in the L column by the end of the season. Hopefully the manager isn't the reason.

Titanic 2 (2021)

Lots of doom and gloom here even after a 3-0 win today, and 2 games with 8 innings from one starter, 7 from another total of 1 run allowed between them (which shouldn't have happened, but baseball).

Right now, August 21st, the Jays are 10 1/2 out of first (Rays running away from the pack). 4 1/2 out of the wild card. Texas beating the Red Sox 6-1 right now in the 7th inning - c'mon Rangers! The Red Sox and A's are tied right now for the last Wild Card. Seattle just 1/2 a game ahead of the Jays. The Jays are 8 games under their expected record based on runs scored/allowed (that would put them in the #1 WC position and 4 back of the Rays if everyone's record matched their runs for/against). The (#&@ Yankees are 5 games ahead of their xWL record. Sigh. Reminds me of the late 00's.

The Red Sox looked terrible tonight in a 10-1 loss to the Rangers. They made 5 errors and were thrown out on the bases 3 times.

"Judging by the lack of comments, I take it the majority of Da Box has folded up the tent."

Haven't folded up any tent, but I am still furious about the streak of horrendous game deciding manager calls the last couple weeks.

No question on that. Montoyo has made few friends here lately. His bullpen choices I could write off as stuff happening we don't know - guys not available due to whatever reason, someone looked really good in their warm ups but had zilch once on the mound, who knows? But that moronic pinch bunt thing... that was pure stupidity by any measure. It not only undermined a young talent, it put your worst hitter up in a key situation (well, his 45 OPS+ is a bit higher than Lopez' 0 for 1, and Smith's 1 for 5). FYI: after a decent start Valera is now 0 for his last 16 with a walk. He might have been good to hit with a runner on 3rd with under 2 out as he hasn't K'd in that stretch (impressive in an 0 for 16 slump to not strike out) but to bunt? He has 2 sac bunts in his career (181 PA), 32 in the minors (4279 PA) but 0 this year in Toronto & Buffalo. Just a 100% dumb move. The only possible excuse is a fear of a double play but Kirk has 5 double plays hit into vs 22 hits so the odds of a hit are far greater than a double play, and even a DP would likely get the runner to 3B.

Sigh. It is done. Time to move past it. Montoyo does seem to want to do bunts and the like but he doesn't have the players for it. FanGraphs had a 'manager measure' based on When he uses his best relievers, how rigid his approach to the bullpen is, where he puts his best hitters in the lineup, how often he bunts with non-pitchers.

for lineup I think Montoyo does an excellent job - it is rare you see the top hitters below #5 in the order, one can quibble about who should be 1st with Springer out but 1-4 are clearly the top 4 hitters on the team (Bo, Vlad, Semien, Hernandez in whatever order) and when Springer is healthy he is right in there making 1-5 the best 5 hitters. Those top 5 have only batted 6th or lower 8 times - all Semien 6th between April 21st and April 30th (Tellez ahead of him as he still hoped he'd hit I suspect and Grichuk who was hot then, Biggio leading off in an attempt to get him back to his 2020 form). Early on he fooled around a bit with Biggio and Tellez in the higher part but once it was clear neither was what they were in 2020 they were pushed down.

Most common in each lineup spot?: Semien leadoff*, Bichette*, Vlad*, Hernandez, Grichuk (Hernandez just behind), Gurriel (Grichuk just behind), Gurriel (Grichuk just behind) Espinal, McGuire. * = already started 82+ games making it mathematically impossible for anyone to pass them. Funny that Gurriel is #1 in two slots and is a close 2nd in the 8th slot. He is a tough one to figure out what to do with. He can be a really good hitter at times, really bad at others. Only 4 leadoff hitters (Semien, Springer, Biggio, Bichette), 3 #3 hitters (Vlad, Semien, Bichette). In boring Cito 1993 (WAMCO) who was known for keeping things stable only the #3/4 slots had under 5 guys (#3: Molitor/Alomar/Carter/Coles, #4: Carter/Olerud/Domingo Martinez - Martinez and Cole were the day after the team clinched the AL East, for 3 days Cito put whoever in the lineup and the Jays won all 3 games). Dang that team was healthy and good.

How Rigid his bullpen is: Pretty clear it isn't. The closer, Romano, used in the 7th inning 3 times (non-double headers), has 5 holds, twice over 1 IP, although oddly only has come in with runners on 7 times (never more than 1 runner, 4 scored so probably a good idea not to do that). 8 different guys have saves. 3 with more than 1 (Romano, Dolis, Merryweather). He clearly has shown a willingness to shift who is in which role depending on who is effective or not. Yeah, he gives guys too many chances who have done good in the past (Dolis, Chatwood) 12 guys have a blown save, but none more than 2 (Mayza, Richards). 11 guys have wins in relief, 15 have losses. 12 have holds. An insane 22 different guys have a relief Win/relief Loss/Hold/Save/Blown Save this year for the Jays. The guys without are 1 game wonders Allgeyer, Soria (if he gets healthy he'll have a few), Stripling and multi game guys Tice, Snead (I expect him to get a shot soon), Roark, Overton, Kay (that one surprised me, figured with his long relief role he'd have got a win or loss). Clearly Montoyo gives guys a shot at pressure roles and doesn't keep putting them there if they have issues (still can't believe no one has more than 2 blown saves).

Bunts with non-pitchers: this hasn't happened often but boy does it backfire when done. Espinal bunting with 2 strikes and K'ing a few times, the infamous pinch bunt attempt. Just 6 sac bunts though by non-pitchers but I think it is more due to the guys not executing than anything.

When using best relievers: until recently he went with the hot hand in all roles. But now Romano is clearly the closer, Mayza setup with Cimber & Richards. The rest is a mess but he works with what he has as best as possible. Like I said a few times now - no one has more than 2 blown saves, but many have 1 so clearly he gives guys a shot but if they fail they don't get another. I like that. He has been dealt a horrid hand on the pen and has done as good as possible with that mess imo. If Phelps and Yates had been healthy things would've been drastically different. If Merryweather had been healthy, again, drastically different (but only a fool would count on that - reminds me of Al Leiter who always seemed hurt here).

Hate to say it but Montoyo by these measure is a very good manager. Odds are a replacement would not be any better and probably worse. Although I would enjoy a Cito round 3 about now to push this team in the final month :)

Probably worth noting, before we turn the page on this thread, that Rambling Gambling Man was Bob Seger's first hit, reaching #17 on Billboard in 1969.

In 2016 our pitching staff was very healthy. 5 healthy SPs. The pen was also good with a lot of guys doing a good job when called upon.

Then we have this year. 6 good enough SPs if healthy. Currently no Stripling and Manoah. The pen is currently and season long unreliable or terrible to be more exact.

The army of young SPs have not stepped up. Pearson, Hatch, Kay and Zeuch in the rotation. When healthy enough and tried in the pen they have still not enough success to show. All the other young relievers like A Castro, J Payamps, Merryweather etc... have not established themselves in the pen. Snead and Saucedo have done reasonably well considering that they were "nobody" before the season started.

Actually, with runners on first and less than 2 outs, Kirk has 4 hits and 5 double play ground outs and he's hitting .235.
Basically, 24% chance of a hit vs 29% chance of 2 outs.

In 2016, the position players were not good enough.
They got 7+ WAR from Donaldson, 4+ from Edwin, 3+ from Pillar and Tulo, but only 2 from Martin and 1.2 from Bautista. Travis was good for 2.5 WAR and then was gone. The rest of the outfield wasn't good.

We have 41 games left this season. Montoyo has to manage well. I think his 2021 managing will determine if he returns next year.

Montoyos managing career in Toronto has been with diverse teams.

2019 was a get rid of the old and replace with the young when ready. Winning may not mean anything BUT winning always means something. Grichuk established who he was and got an extension. Youth got tried out. Teoscar, Gurriel, Tellez, Biggio showed a lot of offensive promise. Bo only played 46 games but was great. Vlad was good if not tired and out of gas. The pitching was not good Stroman (good) and Thornton (decent). Sanchez was establishing his injury history. The pen was K Giles and some no names that were able to do well enough for that season but have not developed for 2020 and2021. They are no longer with the Jays.

Montoyo's good move was using J Davis in the OF late in the game to protect a lead. That worked very well IMO.

2020 was 60 games against the East AL & NL. Making the playoffs was not a very big challenge.

Basically, 24% chance of a hit vs 29% chance of 2 outs.

And you contend that rates based on 21 plate appearances are predictive?

“ The army of young SPs have not stepped up. Pearson, Hatch, Kay and Zeuch in the rotation. When healthy enough and tried in the pen they have still not enough success to show”

This is what worries me looking forward. In today’s game, many of the top teams can trot out reliever after reliever with good numbers and lots of octane to soak up innings 6-9. The Jays aren’t producing much from the minors right now to supplement their free agents and cover the inevitable injuries. The BP might continue to be a sore point in the next couple of years even after off-season reinforcements.

The only way this team gets in the wildcard game is, some semblance of the following has to happen.

1. Vlad and Bo return to form
2. Springer only misses another week or so
3. Pearson comes up and is lights out
4. The starting pitching continues to be good.

5. Montoyo stops bunting.

Constructing the pen going forward is our crucial area. It has cost us too much this season.

The good position player youth will get better with experience or prove like Tellez that we have to move on. Catcher right now is in that boat.

IMO luck will determine if we sign better pen pieces this off season. At the moment I don't think we go expensive. If we fail like 2020 SPs and 2021 bullpen pieces then we will have to trade for cheap pieces like Ray & Walker in 2020 and Cimber & T Richards this year. The cost for relievers are generally the Joe Smith for Pannone and Taylor trades.

That's the current numbers. It's exactly what I'd expect from a bad runner.
Toronto's lack of success executing the bunt is even less predictive.
It's based on a tiny sample involving several hitters.
The premise is that bunting is easier than hitting.
It's obvious to anyone that has ever played baseball.

Grichuk's number for the year with runners on first and less than 2 outs is now 16 hits and 15 GDP.
One of those GDP came in that game.

Mathematically, bunting is absolutely the right move.
Nothing like last year when Montoyo failed to pinch hit for (Alford?) with a good bat on the bench (Tellez?).
He said after that game, that he thought he was going to have a big hit.

I think the disconnect is that Montoyo wouldn't ask Semien, Bichette, Hernandez or Guerrero to bunt or pinch hit for them, hence the same apply to Kirk who hasn't quite reached the All-Star level yet.

Fascinating: Joe Carter hits the home run against Mitch Williams, with Alfredo Griffin's franchise record 74 sacrifice hits in the on-deck circle.

The key factor is really #4. If the starting pitching continues to be good (and there's little reason to think otherwise, provided health) there are all sorts of ways the Jays can catch OAK and BOS, who have 3 and 2 less losses respectively than the Jays. Heck, TOR can hand those 3 losses to OAK themselves.

Lopez has been optioned to Buffalo because Manoah is back from the bereavement list. Weird that he wouldn't just sit out another day until his start tomorrow.

The relief pitchers who will still be here next year have been throwing strikes.
I don't like Thornton much in the pen. Not enough strikes, too many grips.
Romano's slider hasn't been as good without sticky substances, but he's still getting it done.
Mayza has been fine. Cimber throws strikes. Richards has a 3.8 K/BB ratio and a WHIP under 1.
Saucedo, Overton and Snead have looked decent so far. Castro has potential.
Borucki needs to bounce back.

It's all on replacing Dolis/Hand/Phelps/Soria over the winter.

Free Agents: Semien, Dickerson, Ray, Yates, Matz, Soria, Phelps, Hand. Ray & Semien are the only ones worth more than a $5 mil one year contract. Dickerson might be but I don't see him being resigned. Phelps, Soria, and Yates I wouldn't be shocked to see resigned. Matz maybe if Ray goes elsewhere and Matz is still on the market. No way I see Hand coming back.

Snead, Overton, Thornton, Kay are all on the 'might be shifted off 40 man' list.

Saucedo on the 'has to earn it' list.

Merryweather & Pearson on the 'needs to be healthy' list

Dead locks to be here are: Romano, Borucki, Richards, Cimber, Mayza.

Hatch & Pearson & Stripling on the 'if he failed to make the rotation will relieve' list.

So I see the pen in 2022 being Romano, Borucki, Richards, Cimber, Mayza and 3 open slots (8 man limit next year). I expect 1 of those to be filled by a free agent (Phelps, Yates, or someone else signed ideally a rock solid setup guy or closer). One of the rotation flops will probably get the final slot, but I wouldn't be shocked for Hatch to be left in AAA as insurance and Pearson in the pen with Stripling starting. Yes, I put Pearson on 2 lists but he fits both.

Whatever we need to replace this winter before ST.

4 experienced relievers.

1 SP added to Ryu, Manoah, Berrios and Stripling. It will be very hard to bring in someone having a season like Ray. A Matz type season is much easier to replace but still hard. A healthy Pearson in the rotation would be good. But is it likely?

2019, F Galvis (did well), 2020 T Shaw (not well), 2021 Semien (super). I don't expect a 2022 Semien. Hopefully a healthy Kirk and Springer make up some of the Semien production. We have enough depth for offense in our 4 outfielders. The experience of Bo, Vlad etc... will also help the offense.

Very good pitching analysis John N. I just counted our 40 man roster and we have 19 that can return next year which included Merryweather. Add 3 more pitchers and we get to 22. 2 of these pitchers should by SPs in the Matz general category.

The pen still looks bad unless we have better health. I cannot think of any pitcher from the farm that we must add before the rule 5 draft.

We keep the 4 current 40 man catchers. 6 IFs once Semien is removed. 5 OF once Dickerson and Valera are removed. Palacios is the 5th. Valera may stay but I would not use a 40 man spot for him because he has not shown that he would hurt if lost.

So I see the pen in 2022 being Romano, Borucki, Richards, Cimber, Mayza and 3 open slots

We need more than that given inevitable injuries. May be Snead and Overton as backups in Buffalo will help but they are unproven at the MLB level. We’ll see. The FO has had some success in the past with the pen but a dearth of options in the minors is a cause for concern. We need some more Mayzas and Romanos on the way.

I *really* hope the they make a serious attempt to re-sign Ray. He's been so good, and you can never have too much pitching. There don't seem to be too many pitchers in the minors who look ready to move up.

Matz too, although he's likely to be much more affordable.

Excellent bunt. Surprise factor is big in most bunting situations. Yah! They’re smarter than we are.

There's the invisible pitcher, Joe Murray. He's rule 5 eligible this winter.
So are Logue and Francis.
None of these are a lock to be drafted.

On the reliever side, Kyle Johnston has looked interesting.
Will someone take a chance on Bryan Baker?

With the limit on pitchers fixed at 13, I think teams will mostly go after position players to fill that 4-man bench.

If Matz finishes strong this year, he might receive a QO. It would arguably be an overpay, but it would be better than giving a two-year deal to another Tanner Roark or Chase Anderson.

Trent Thornton in a high leverage situation? Yikes. I wouldn't do that.

Thornton in a tie game? *gulp*

What’s that definition of insanity?

Charlie is just trolling us all now

Thornton, Sauceado and then Mayza?

That worked. Thornton throwing 96-97 helps. Youneverknow.

Watched Vlad in the AFL. He was not picking up on sliders off the outer part of the plate. Between that, his flightiness and his weight, I didn’t think he would be the player he showed earlier in the season. He has not been able to adapt to the way he is being pitched and I wonder if he’ll always have a problem with those off speed pitches away.

Flightiness?

Starting Dickerson on the 3-2 pitch was kind of crucial there. Good idea, somebody.

Kirk with runner on first less than 2 outs.
Thankfully he got the count full and they had no choice but to send the runner to stay out of the double play.
That was a routine double play ball all the way.
And Gurriel comes up clutch.

Now, I'm not sure if Cimber is the guy I want to close this.

It was puzzling to me that they didn't start Dickerson earlier in the count. And, yes, I agree with  Buck this time.

In the absence of a Proven Closer*TM this is the right move going to Saucedo.

......unbelievable.

I literally cannot believe how allergic this team is to one run wins.

WOW.

It's unbelievable what Montoyo has to go through.
Saucedo against a lefty was the right move. He's basically a LOOGY.
Next the best defender on the team can't make the most basic play there is.

For the love of God please win this damn baseball game.

That 9th inning isn't on Montoyo. I agree that the move to Saucedo made sense in the circumstances.

The Tigers broadcast, which I am watching, was speculating that Montoyo would go to Hand. That move would have been on Montoyo.

As for the error.....it's pouring right now.

Biggest moment in saucedos career. He’s been a fun story

Every move is on Montoyo.

Hinch is taking notes like a Nork general at a presidential review.

It's not just the manager and the poor offense, this team has just gotten crappy breaks all year long in these close games. That ball could have ricochet anywhere and went right to the second baseman there.

Positively speaking, it's only been the one game but Smith's glove looks pretty serviceable at 3B.

Yeah, the glove looks fine and the arm as well.

The odds of scoring one run in OT is about 50%.
The Tigers had the top of their lineup vs the middle of the Jays'.
The do have the better pitcher.

I thought that was an excellent, under control, AB by Kirk.

Kevin Smith swinging from the heels there. You only needed a basehit, kiddo.

Yeah. And I like that he was off his knees with the runner on third the last time.

Yep, definitely a mummy's curse.

Smith is basically a power hitter.
They play him to pull.

Bunch of players who have gotten into their own head that they can’t win tight ones. Self fulfilling prophecy. Led my a management crew who is incapable of getting them out of that mindset. The only thing that’s worked at all this year for that is Springer but he’s been off the field too much. Without him they lose their mojo and live in to the lowered expectation of themselves. Fire Montoyo and bring in someone better able to install belief in these guys.

Remember when Buck was lauding the Tigers for coming out before the game and taking fielding practice; just to get them into the flow of the game; part of preparing?

Are you guys talking about Semien?
He's one guy who does not fool around.
That play was too easy to be worth practicing.
If you're not into the "flow of the game" by the 9th inning, it's a medical problem.
If anything, this will make it easier to wave him goodbye.
That was basically a -1 WAR play.

They must have offended the baseball gods while in Seattle.
Maybe it's because they didn't feel the stadium with Blue Jays fans?

Yes, the idea that Semien is unclutch all of a sudden is pretty silly. They lose games because their bullpen fails and they've struggled late, not because of a flaw in their character or a lack of clutch ability

Because he has been this year?

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,6,11,12,13,21,-1,34,35,40,41,-1,23,37,38,50,317,61,-1,111,-1,203,199,58,71&season=2021&month=0&season1=2021&ind=0&team=14&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=&startdate=&enddate=

Semien, Grichuk and Espinal lead the way.

Look laugh at me all you want but I’m seeing more and more media coverage of the team call the Jays out on this. When you’re as laughably bad as the Jays are late in games it’s going to draw notice and the stats that have them being dead last in the league are bound to draw attention. Of course the tire fire dumpster fire that is the bullpen gets more attention but we all know that in just about any late inning situation the Jays are just going to meekly bow out.

This team has no guts at all. If they can make a bad play or pitch to lose a game they will. Montoyo needs to go and get someone else who can motivate this group before we waste their primes.

I always avoid digging into clutch stats, nothing seems predictive to me. But, Semien struggles with some pitches and pitchers on the outer half of the plate so I can’t say that he’d be on the top of my list of Jays batters in key situations.

Sigh...
Games like this suck, but every ounce of proof I've ever seen or tried to research screams there is no such thing as 'clutch ability'. It is dumb luck.

• Semien: Hit 256/324/439 in his career. 263/352/476 with RISP. This year (not counting today) 272/337/534 vs RISP 220/289/510 - higher ISO (290 vs 262) but lower Avg (52 points) leading to a low OBP (48 points). Guess he smashes the ball harder but isn't 'clutch' for average this year vs the entire career of his.
• Vlad 2021: 312/406/605 RISP: 352/474/694 but, but, but today he failed so he must be an unclutch hitter.

You get the idea. I could do more but am a bit tired. This weekend sucked due to 2 plays - if Semien made the throw he makes 99.9% of the time the Jays win and we are all happy. If Kirk blocks a ball he normally blocks the Jays win Friday as well and we have a sweep. That is it. 2 plays. Yes, the pinch bunt was amazingly dumb (but almost worked out), yes, the Jays hitters should've scored more. Yes, the pen could've done better. But today we were onto guys who are about 20th on the depth chart by the 11th so I don't put the blame on them.

This weekend was a classic case of whatever can go wrong does. The rotation was the biggest fear going in.

• Ray: 5 starts in a row of under 3 R allowed, 6+ IP
• Ryu: Shaky with 2 out of past 3 starts being poor (4+ runs allowed) but past 5 starts averaged 6 IP, 3.90 ERA even including those 2 poor starts.
• Matz: 4 starts in a row with 2 or fewer ER. ERA under 3 since start of July (7 starts) - that is our weakest starter as far as most are concerened.
• Manoah: June 25th to now has 1 start allowing more than 2 ER. 7 starts, 5 1/2 IP average. 2.82 ERA. Despite that horrid 3 inning 6 ER 7 R affair last time when I suspect he was distracted by whatever caused him to go on the bereavement list after.
• Berrios: 4 starts, 3 5+ IP, 1 4 1/3. 3 with under 3 ER, 1 bad one with 6 ER. Jays 1-3 in those starts.

Despite 5 very good starters right now (a 6th on the IL and likely into the pen when he returns) the team in August is 11-10. Wait, I thought they were skunking it up this month? Ah yes, lost 4 of the past 5 to Washington and Detroit. Ugh. Also 3 of the 4 before that - so 2-7 their last 9. Yep, that sucks. On the "easy" part of the schedule too. Reminds me of the old days vs the Devil Rays - they'd beat up on the Jays anytime the Jays needed a good series despite that team being a horrid one back then. At least it always seemed that way. Manoah, Ray, Berrios the only starters with a loss during that time (one each) - the pen gets the rest (Richards, Hand, Cimber, Snead).

I still feel good about this team overall, even if today and Friday were very painful. This team is thisclose to winning but can't seem to get any good luck. The only good luck was that Tiger swinging on a HBP thus getting a strike called. If Cimber K'd him or that had been called a HBP instead of a strike the Jays probably win today (Simeon a bit more alert with a runner coming at him, might flip to 2B instead). Sigh. Even good luck goes bad it seems. Like the last week of 1987 when all that could go wrong did, but lower stakes. Hopefully this means the bad luck will flip in 2022 and the Jays get amazing good luck next year. Can always hope. 4 1/2 out of the Wild Card with 40 games to go. It can easily happen. A good week and the Jays could be in a playoff slot. A bad week again and they could be right out. Next is the White Sox who are just playing out the string while preparing for the playoffs (9 1/2 game lead in the central, no pressure on them at all right now, LaRussa most likely trying to keep everyone healthy and will work on keeping them fresh).

I completely agree that clutch is not predictive. It’s just the difference between a predictive and descriptive stat. Things like that are descriptive and just described analytically how things have broken down. And this year in about every way they’ve broken badly for the Jays. Like John I hope they rebound next year with that luck. But it’s clear at this point that it’s not going to happen this year. I first brought this up two months ago and was told that it would rebound and I hoped they were right. If anything it got even worse. I just hope next year is better since a team shooting themselves in the foot so many times isn’t fun to watch. Unclutch or cursed or whatever I’m tired of it.

Funny thing about luck is that it can be horrid today, but flip tomorrow. Right now it feels like this team is snakebit and won't ever get it going. But that can change with the next game. Who knows? Maybe Springer comes back and is healthy the rest of the way, Vlad finds his April stroke, and the starters keep going strong. Then suddenly these games going into extras would be easy wins before getting there. This team is crazy close, and if the 'luck fairy' just would flip from bad to good they could go on a charge and take over. Sneak into the playoffs and watch out (ala 2015). Or it could just keep going as is and 2021 is viewed like 1987, 2008 (Pythag 93-69, real 86-76), and other snake bit years were.

NYY has made a strong move. 9 wins in a row. Maybe A Boone survives.

The Blue Jays are requiring proof of vaccination or negative COVID test for all fans 12+.  Better late than never. 

August 3rd, 1979: Tony La Russa's managerial debut. Chicago defeats Toronto 8-5.

June 29th, 1990: Dave Stewart no-hits the Blue Jays. Oakland wins 5-0.

Aside from the 1989 and 1992 playoffs, these were La Russa's only notable highlights involving the Blue Jays, that I could find. Scott Rolen or Colby Rasmus exiting St. Louis? Those were indirect storylines, anyway. La Russa's sheer longevity (and egomania) would have you expecting a few more points of trivia, even if only on the stat sheet.

per FG, the Jays starters rank 17th on the season, but 1st over the past 30 days. They have propped up the team for some time now.

Read a study on clutch some time ago, and the conclusion was that it's mostly randomness for a player to hit better in clutch situations.

However, I've never seen the opposite studied, where players hit much worse in clutch situations. I would guess most every player should be a bit worse in theory, since they would be facing the other teams best relievers in many cases. But this years team seems to be taking it to the extreme for quite some time.

Semien's gaffe was obvious and painful but a less obvious mistake was Matz throwing a changeup to Cabrera for the home run when it was easy to see all series that he couldn't hit the fastball.

Agreed Island Boy. It is like when they faced ex-Jay Adams who could clobber low pitches but was helpless vs high ones and the Jays kept throwing him low pitches. Sometimes you wonder if our pitchers have a death wish or something.

a less obvious mistake was Matz throwing a changeup to Cabrera

That may well be true, but it would have been a tall order to tell Matz that he must throw 6 shutout innings for his outing to be successful, even against that particular Tiger lineup.

I think the Tigers pitching staff did a great job of recognizing the flaw in the Jays offense; their lack of patience. The obvious signs were the 3-0 counts that Vlady and a couple others hacked at, and the amount of soft stuff down and away the Jays received this past weekend was crazy. A more patient team would have taken the walks the Tigers were dangling in front of them and been disciplined enough to wait it out. To a certain extent, the entire road trip before this series was the same deal.

" it would have been a tall order to tell Matz that he must throw 6 shutout innings for his outing to be successful,"

I wasn't throwing shade at Matz, Chuck. In fact, I thought he threw a great game which made it all the more puzzling that his only mistake wasn't in pitch location but in pitch selection. I don't if that is on him or Kirk.