Worried about this series. Mariners have some good pitchers going who have given us trouble and Ryu and Matz have been inconsistent. I don’t think we can sweep this but I’d be ecstatic to get 2 out of 3.

I'm not the only soul accused of hit and run/Tire tracks all across your back/I can see you've had your fun

Inspired by Liam Hendriks's meltdown last night?

Inspired by Seattle, not in the mood for grunge, no good Microsoft songs except the one Eno wrote.

Another alternative, Magpie, is Neko Case.  Great lyrics, even if she didn't write "Umpires Got A Lotta Nerve".  Or Heart. 

Neko Case? But she's from nowhere.

Welcome to the West
A mosquito to kiss your hands and feet
Welcome to this dirty business

Still not exactly sure why we've never given Gurriel a look at 3B.

What's the point of replay if it turns correct calls into incorrect calls?

Whoa, looked safe to me, hard call to overturn.

Fix is in?

Love bunts.

But seriously. There is something wrong with this team. Like I have said a few times, there are too many things that go wrong.

Yup I’d fire Montoyo just for the constant underperforming in pressure situations on all sides. It’s clear he doesn’t get this team ready to play their best. I refuse to believe luck could be this bad and there isn’t something to be done about it.

It’s also why I dreaded this series, nothing beats the Jays more than some slightly above average pitchers.

Since Brad Hand’s blowup to Cleveland which cost them the game, he’d pitched in a 7 run lead, a 1 run deficit (against one LHB with 2 outs), and a 8 run lead.

Despite that clear drop in leverage over the past week, Montoyo deemed it necessary to throw him into the highest leverage spot in weeks (and it went exactly as you’d expect for a guy who has struggled with command and struggled in general over the past couple of months). Where is the consistency in logic?

It’s hard to imagine this is the guy the bosses want running this team right now.

Cimber is the only guy in the pen who has been reliable lately, but a 2.something ERA means an earned run every 4 games for a 1 inning guy.

The pen currently has Thornton, Overton and Snead.
Maybe you wanted Dolis?

I imagine the bosses want a better pen. I sure hope so.

Ray was pulled on 90 pitches for some reason.

I’ve made my views about Montoyo clear, but in the case of Hand, I think you have to look to the scouting staff and the FO. If Montoyo has a defining managerial style it’s that if you give him a player he’s going to use him. Hand hasn’t passed the eye test from the first pitch in Toronto.

Wow Nigel. Correct. I remember Cito hardly ever using 2 of his relievers in 2010 for some reason. They won 85 games in 2010.

Not sure that I agreed with the decision to bunt in the first place since that was certainly going to take the bat out of Springer's hands, but the decision to try and score on the pop-up with the best hitter in baseball on deck was just plain dumb. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.

If a struggling Brad Hand is a legitimate 9th inning option for your team (which he obviously shouldn’t have been, any decent manager would have been warming Romano in the 9th there in case anything happened to Cimber), perhaps pulling a dominating Robbie Ray at 90 pitches is not the best decision.

The bunt was a defensible call in many circumstances but I thought it was the wrong call for the reason Hodgie mentioned. You were guaranteed to take the bat out of the back to back Player of the Week’s hand. It’s stuff like that that Montoyo really struggles with.

The problem again was the inconsistent offence that has plagued this team this year not pitching changes and who’s who. Romano has hardly been great lately and he is not a pitcher I want coming in with the bases loaded either. Hand against a rookie lefty is a perfectly fine matchup and should have worked. To me the issue is all with the inconsistency that they’ve not managed to do anything about. I’m tired of this score ten, score 1-3 we keep seeing over and over.

Hand against anybody over the past few months in high leverage is very far from a perfectly fine matchup.

He’s been fine since he joined the Jays and all our lefties are injured. Mayza is out, Borucki is out, etc. Hand to me was the second best choice to come in there other than Romano and not by much really given Romano is just as wild if not more so and has had his own issues lately. Plus the Jays are on the road so bringing in Romano has costs for how good he’s be in the next inning. Anyway I don’t think bringing in Hand is horrible or anything given injuries and availability.

My problem with this coaching staff is not in these small micro decisions here. (Mostly I do think bringing in Murphy the other day was bad) my problem is that they’ve not managed to get the team to consistently perform. Late game approach for hitting sucks, lots of mental mistakes, etc.

It was really hot and muggy in Seattle last night. I think it was 35 at game time. I wasn’t at all surprised that they took Ray out.

"The problem again was the inconsistent offence that has plagued this team this year not pitching changes and who’s who"

Oh for chrissakes.

I can’t agree that Hand has been ok since joining the team. He’s looked terrible since joining. His one good outing came in an extreme low leverage situation. I wouldn’t put him anywhere near a high leverage situation right now.

I wouldn't put him anywhere near a high leverage outing for the rest of the year.  Inability to throw a strike in that particular situation is a disqualifier. 

Robbie Ray - run support in 23 starts:

12 wins - 90 runs scored - 7.5 runs per game
11 loss - 19 runs scored - 1.7 runs per game

Robbie Ray - 9 wins, 5 loss, 9 no-decision, 2.88 ERA.

Patrick Murphy has been claimed by the Nationals.

Yeah I think that stat Leaside describes the Jays issue well. Hot or cold and not much in between.

Also with the current injuries to the pitching staff they have to go to mediocre relievers. They can’t just throw out Richards, Cimber and Romano all the time. They have to use other pitchers in close games. Yates, Merryweather, Phelps, Mayza, Soria and Pearson would all be better than any of the non top three on the team. So right now you got guys like Saucedo, Snead, Dolis, Thornton, Hand, etc and you need to use them in close games because you have no other choice.

And on the other point run differential has no use. It’s a nice thing to say that your team is better than it’s record but you get no bonus for it. This teams horrid hitting late in games and especially late in close games (second to last in the majors) is a big reason for that disparity. You’d also think will all the moaning about the bullpen that we’d be last or something but we’re not even close. It is just the bullpen like anything else in this team is very inconsistent and very unclutch.

They can put up zeros when up or down big but game gets close and they soil their pants. The only thing I feel that has been mostly consistent this year is starting pitching. Defence, offence and bullpen is just like throw dice and see what it comes up with. I want coaching changes because I am tired of this yo-yo and want someone who will teach them about giving more consistent effort and approach.

If you ever followed the Yankees over the last 30 years, before they went all bullpen crazy.
They used to go through rough patches and the Jays would be .500 against them or close, but they'd still win 90+ games and make the playoffs every year.
Sweeps are hard because other teams save their best relievers for close games.

run differential has no use.

Well, it's got the same use as all the other numbers. It tells you something that might be useful to know. It doesn't tell you exactly how good your team is or exactly how many games your team should have won. But obviously it's much more helpful than a team's record in one-run games.

To me it shows me this in an elite hitting team that’s record is being held by by inconsistent performance. This is not exactly new since we were talking about this six weeks ago and thought things might rebound. Well it hasn’t and I think coaching changes could help here. It’s not like Montoyo is great in the in game decision stuff either so in my opinion I am not sure what he brings. It’s like in every aspect (hitting, pitching, defence) this team wilts under pressure. The stats clearly show it and I don’t see any sign of improving so I think they should change managers in hope of saving this season. Now I don’t think they will but I just want a manager who will get more out of this team and have no faith Montoyo is it.

I think coaching changes could help here.

I can't conceive of how. What's the manager supposed to do? Exhort them to greater efforts?

I think they might need to relax a little. Three decisive moments in last night's game were the direct result of players - Semien, Valera, Cimber - trying to make something happen. The result in all three cases was simple, random bad luck - and that just happens, there's nothing you can do about that - but I do think some of these guys have been pressing a little. I think Guerrero has been, for example. He hasn't been chasing balls out of the zone, but he hasn't been waiting for his pitch. (I do think he's about to come out of it.)

Relax, guys. Easier said then done, I realize.

I think there have been times when this lineup gets hacktastic late in tight/tiers games looking for a hero home run rather than just grinding out a normal AB.

Tied not tiers

So I thought I'd look at the individual splits, and see what I could see. And I'm even more confused than usual. Lourdes Gurriel has been indescribably awful when it's Late & Close - .163/.196/.245 in 51 PApps. But he's been just fine in High Leverage situations - .291/.288/.509 in 60 PApps.

Maybe Late & Close isn't High Leverage.

If the rest of those splits mean anything - Hernandez has been really good, Springer's been pretty bad, and they don't pitch to Guerrero.

There is probably some sort of overlap between the two but leverage is odd because in situations early game where they can break things open Jays are very good. Put them in late innings and it’s a different tale. When I was looking at the stats last month basically Teo was good, Vlad and Bo were fine but Semien, Biggio, Gurriel and Grichuk were completely awful.

It's weird.  The AL as a whole is hitting better in high leverage situations than in medium leverage situations and better in medium leverage situations than in low leverage situations.  Not so for the Blue Jays, indeed the exact opposite.  And the culprit in high leverage situations is not K rate or W rate or BABIP, but IsoP and most notably GDP.  They are hitting fewer home runs, many fewer doubles and grounding into way more double plays.  They have hit into 27 double plays in 722 high leverage PAs and 23 double plays in 2017 low leverage PAs.  Which I guess might explain why Charlie is so eager to bunt in high leverage situations.  It wouldn't hurt to have a fast smart pinch-runner on the bench, but almost nobody has that now.

They can't ground into double plays if there is nobody on base.
The more people on base, the more likely to hit into a double play.

They are supposed to be good with RISP, but poor with high leverage.
I'm guessing that high leverage means better pitching, most of the time.
Especially late in games.

The pinch runner thing might change next year with the mandatory 4 player bench.

The homerun thing? Should they be swinging for the fence when a single can win the game?

Mike, as I said, I think the bunt is a very defensible choice in that situation. Except that bunting is the one choice that absolutely ensures that you’ve taken the bat out of Springer’s hands. I’m not doing that to the hottest hitter in all of baseball. I think you have to play hot streaks etc on occasion.

This lineup doesn't really grind out AB.
They excel at hitting the first pitch they see.
Even Biggio has turned away from grinding AB because all it takes is a bad strike call and you're out.
The new approach hasn't really worked out for him but it has for the others.
They swing at the pitches they like early in the count and they don't chase too much.
Maybe in high leverage, they become less selective. Maybe not.
They probably see better pitching from better pitchers.

I think there is some parts of it that is lineup construction. Not getting Brantley really hurt as this team lacks any good LH bats. Tellez and Biggio sucking also didn’t help. So it’s not a balanced lineup and it’s not on whole a patient lineup (just Vlad really, occasionally someone else has a patient game). And it’s a lineup that has fallen on its face late in games repeatedly as like Nigel has said they have a bad approach. I loved that Reese at bat from last week but what Reese is willing to do is different than what others do. I mean Bo or Semien occasionally get one of those at bats but it’s pretty rare.

I agree the LH/RH balance is a part of the problem.

Scottt, you're right about the GDP.  The league splits are the same.  The main thing about the club statistically in high leverage situations is the loss of power.  Which seems counterintuitive if you are swinging for the fences.   I do remember them passing up good pitches in important situations- it's a weird mix of overswinging and caution. 

Severino was supposed to start rehabbing, instead he's heading for a shoulder MRI.
Sale is back though and Boston can really beat on Baltimore.

If a walk is all it takes to beat you, the best choice out of the Jays pen is obviously Adam Cimber, who walks fewer hitters than any of their relievers. Next in line would be... uh, Brad Hand. And then Tayler Saucedo.

Hand doesn't walk many batters in general (201 BF, 19 BB, 4 intentional) so I was wondering how often he walks someone on four pitches. This was the third time this season. But it was the sixth time he'd walked the first batter he saw, which is roughly twice as high as his walk rate the rest of the time.

I'm not sure that having a speedy pinch runner would cut down much on GIDP in high leverage spots.

The risk of GIDP is mostly a function of the batter's footspeed, not the runner at first base.

A speedy pinch runner only cuts down on GIDP if you are willing to send the runner in high leverage situations, which is generally considered to be a bad play with your best hitters at the plate.

The other way you can reduce GIDP would be to hit-and-run more in high leverage spots, which similarly seems like an unwise idea.

On four pitches though, Magpie, in that situation?  I wonder how many times that happens per season.  Maybe I'll check.

If Late & Close is more meaningful to present concerns than High Leverage, so far in 2021: Hernandez has been excellent, Semien's been good. Vlad falls off some (they don't pitch to him). Bichette, Grichuk, McGuire, Espinal turn into somewhat below-average hitters. Gurriel, Springer, Jansen stop hitting altogether.

That's what we see in the tiny, tiny sample involved. It means nothing, nothing whatsoever. George Springer is one of two men in the game's history to hit five home runs in a World Series. I don't think Late & Close rattles him a whole lot.

Sometimes sh**t just happens. The mind resists anything so banal and irritating, and searches instead for some explanation.

Tepera was a Jay when he did that? Cause I don't remember.

Look at it this way. Over his career, Hand has walked 1 of every 12 batters he's faced (he's been better than that in 2021.) But he'd faced 18 batters as a Blue Jay and hadn't walked anyone. He was due!

Hey, if you can't have some fun with this stuff you ought to get out of show business.

The continued harping on the Jays performance in late and close situations made me curious so I had to look. The team with the worst OPS in that situation in MLB, the Houston Astros. They must also have a terrible approach and be in need of a coaching change.

I believe that was Aaron Hill against the Rays.

Not Aaron Hill, according to BBRef.

The question wasn't clear.  I meant a 3-0 walk-off walk.  Aaron Hill may have had a walk-off walk.

You have to wonder about the wisdom of McGuire catching Ryu with a LH starter on the mound for the opposition.  If Ryu is going to post an ERA of under 3, then you can see it. But, if it is closer to 4, McGuire's inability to hit a left-hander is going to come back to bite. 

The answer to the trivia question is a catcher.

Are kangaroo courts still a thing? If not Montoyo ought to consider reviving the tradition.

Can’t make a knowledgeable claim as to whether a different manager would help but that lack-of-slide by Hernandez is typical of this teams play. That play is unusual in itself but it’s careless, dumb even. Is there a lack of general awareness?

Yankees stave off the White Sox (who had the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth) and win 7-5. Grrr.

The A’s and Red Sox win as well. Every game is important when the competition is this tough.

What a disaster

Well now is the time to find out how the Jays respond.

Stop pulling your best pitchers at 90 pitches.

In a season full of brutal innings, that one has to be up there. Just hope that looked worse than it was for George.

When you have a lockdown bullpen like this, definitely makes sense to pull your $20 million a year starter after 90 pitches.

Ryu pulled at 89 pitches.

Hopefully we bunt in the bottom half.

Whatever you think of Montoyo, the story here is the injury to Springer.

The Springer injury has had zero impact on the game.

The implications of Springer’s injury obviously go beyond this one game.

I’m 44 years old, followed baseball since I was 5 years old, and never seen a manager - and certainly not one with a starting staff this decent 1-5 - this eager to get into a bullpen, let alone one this bad. He’s a decent enough fellow that I can see finishing the season with him, but they definitely need to have somebody else helming them ship next year.

So happy we use the DH to have the luxury of gurriel and grichuk and McGuire in the game instead of Kirk.

See this is it to me. He’s not adding anything with bullpen (although tbh don’t think it’s really his decision I think analytics are pushing the most buttons and of course walker/buschman have input. Remember they’ve talked multiple times about them planning scenarios before the game even starts) or any of his other on field moves.

He’s done a fair job in developing some young players but I see no signs that he’s getting them to play consistent or teach vet lessons like Cora or others do. I think he was brought in to be some sort of consensus manager who would do the will of the FO but that only goes so far. He might also just be a victim of poor luck and injuries but I just don’t see any added value here past some young player hitting development. I think he’ll be replaced with someone with more of an attitude and leadership this offseason.

So damn jarring to go from "Ace Ryu 2runs thru 6.1ip on 89 pitches" to "Rafael Dolis comes on to start the 8th as the FOURTH pitcher of the game".

Lmao we legit had our $20m ace on the mound with 89 pitches and 2 runs allowed thru 6.1ip.

Unreal.

What are you saving Kirk’s bat for if not to hit in the 8th inning of a 3 run deficit?

Get a real manager next year, please. It will make everything a lot more bearable.

Pull Ace Ryu on 89 pitches but LEAVE DOLIS IN WITH 4 RUNNERS ALLOWED AND NO OUTS.

amazing.

90 pitches for Ray

89 pitches for Ryu.

All to get to a bullpen that has been trash all year.

Unreal.

Honestly I never criticize managers. It's almost always the players.

But yanking our two aces at 90 pitches to get to our crappy bullpen is beyond the pale.

Embarrassing really.

Montoyo is getting good production from his starters.
Ray has an ERA of 7+ the third time through the order and over 90 pitches.
Ryu is not someone you want to push through the stretch.
Just count you're blessings he has been this healthy with the Jays.
Matz, Berrios and Manoah can go deeper.
The solution is to have guys in the pen who can throw the 7-8-9 innings with ERAs around 2.0.

Cimber has been that, but even with his "rubber arm", he can't pitch every day.

The one thing that bothers me is not throwing Hatch in the pen to finish the year, but that is not Montoyo's call.

I'm not a big Montoyo supporter but I can defend taking both Ray and Ryu out at 90 pitches. Like someone said, it was a hot, humid night when Ray was on the mound and I don't think leaving Ryu in longer would have changed things last night.

The bullpen is wildly inconsistent just like the team itself. An example is Dollis who actually had several scoreless outings before he imploded the last two appearances. I had my hopes of the Jays qualifying for at least a wild card spot after the strong home stand but this road trip is sucking all that momentum away.

Montoyo is a manager that a rebuilding team hires to soak up losses, then promptly replaces when the team is ready for the next step. I have always felt that way, and any bad managerial decisions made by Montoyo in 2021 (and unfortunately 2022) will be just as much on the FO as him. They have the power to replace him, and they haven't (and likely won't after this season). RPs are dropping like flies due to injury, but then you see just how much Montoyo uses his best relievers, combined with how he basically let Ken Giles throw his arm out right in front of his eyes, and there's no chance I am giving him the injury excuse.

I've said before, if Montoyo is not replaced after this season, then the FO deserves whatever consequences come out of that. Unfortunately for fans that means watching a team with one of the best run differentials in the game consistently being 5 games out of a 2nd WC spot.

#Bluejays starter Hyun-Jin Ryu on getting the hook in the seventh: “My pitch count wasn’t that high. It’s one of those things that’s not in my control.”

— Rob Longley (@longleysunsport) August 15, 2021

Kirk better hit today as he's not helping out Matz with the glove (or his body).

Kirk better hit today

Mission accomplished.

Hitters gonna hit.

But does his defense pass the eye test?

Kirk can hit.

"Montoyo is a manager that a rebuilding team hires to soak up losses"

I don't believe this is the reason the Jays hired Montoyo.

Likely WC standings after today (assuming a Jays win):

Oakland --
Boston --
NYY 2.5 GB
Jays 4.5 GB

It will be an uphill battle for the Jays but they are still in it. Hopefully Springer isn't out for more than a week or so. I imagine he'll be used as a DH quite a bit after he returns.

In the end, Kirk probably did a decent job wrangling a wild matz thru 5ip with only 1 run.

I think I'm ready for Valera to stop getting regular playing time.

Biggio has played four days in a row in Buffalo, so Valera will be DFA before the home series that starts Friday vs. Detroit.

Good to know.

Tho I wouldn't mind seeing Kevin Smith first.

What's that called? A platinum sombrero?

For a pitcher, a 5 0 0 0 0 5 line in the boxscore is outstanding. For a hitter, not so much.

I dunno. DFA Valera and someone will pick him up. I don't really want to see him in Boston or New York.

Blue Jays win 8-3 without the lineup drawing any walks. Toronto ranks 24th in base-on-balls, 3rd in hits, 5th in runs scored, and a good number, 29th in strikeouts.

Of course they could always keep Valera around, but that would require going to an 8-man bullpen until rosters expand in September. Heaven forbid.

I don't get the weeping and gnashing of teeth around our pen, tbh.  this is a conservative FO, on the verge of the years of contention that they have preached from the outset. We spent big to secure Springer, and big to score Berrios.  The pen seems to be the lowest priority, and fair enough.  'In the know' fans seem to love the bullpen on the cheap approach, but you aren't paying for WAR when you sign an elite reliever.  You are paying for consistency, for reliability.  I imagine many of the posters here upset by the pen would have been upset if the FO had signed Liam Hendrix to a big deal, for example, or if we made the Kimbrel trade. 

I think we are at the point with this team where we might spend large on a reliever this offseason.  But if your approach is to roll the dice and build a pen on the cheap, sometimes you roll snake eyes. 

And no way is the pen on Montoya alone.  That, to me, is just one of those sports radio talking points - you guys, who think Montoya is not worth being a major league manager, think this FO is just gonna punt on those decisions?  These trends - bigger pens, shorter starts for the starters, are industry wide.  And they are working, right?  Pitching is eclipsing hitting, precisely because teams are taking these approaches that we fans find so frustrating. 

Personally speaking, I just want to see guys throwing strikes out of the pen. 

Actually, right now calling up Biggio and sending a pitcher down would make a TON of sense with Springer injured but not on the IL. I'm more than ready to see Dolis put on waivers. However, Snead or Overton is more likely to go down instead - quality of work be damned. Still hard to believe Dolis just had a 9 game no runs allowed streak (he even stranded 2 runners he inherited). However, during that streak the average leverage was .15 (1.0 is normal). In the 2 games since that streak he allowed 4 R/ER in 0.1 IP plus allowed the one runner he inherited to score. 35 pitches, 23 strikes vs 22 balls.

In the end all 3 will probably be demoted/released by September to make room for Pearson and anyone else who gets healthy (Mayza, Stripling, Castro on 10 day IL)

I’m shocked to see so many beaxites believing the manager is making the decisions.

Boston has played 3 more games then the Jays.
Yankees and Red Sox play 3 against each other starting tuesday.
Oakland has White Sox-4 games, Giants-3g, Seattle-2g, Yankees-4g coming up

Oh I completely agree with you dalimon. I would be surprised if there was more than 15% of the decisions he appears to do (lineup, bullpen, on field strategy, etc) that were made alone by him. We have seen from plenty of articles already that things like bullpen choices are planned heavily in scenarios pre game. Wouldn’t be surprised to see it in other things to. I think Montoyo is just the on field rep of the FO. He carries out what the analytics department says. So it says that Ray for example sucks in the 7th thus you take him out. It’s not really the moves he’s made that have been the problem more so the results of the moves.

And that’s why I’m not impressed by his leadership since I don’t think repeating the FO gets that buy in and belief of the players. I dislike the inconsistent effort this team gives and we’ve seen multiple times over many games that pitchers and hitters alike crumble under pressure. Losing the strike zone completely, melting down in odd ways, trying to be a hero with a home run, blown defensive plays (although tbh the defence on the team sucks which doesn’t help), etc. This team has parts that should add up to a better record than it has and I think he has a non zero (but not full) part of the blame here. I do appreciate that he’s shown some more emotion this year but it also kinda reminds me of Glenn Gulutzan (former Flames coach) when he was losing the team that he made more showy emotional attempts to stir up the team but that ultimately proved fruitless and he was canned.

Kasi, personally speaking, I don't think there is a sports fan alive who 'knows' the vibe in the clubhouse, the reasons for a team that underperforms vs whatever Seattle is doing.  When you bang on the mismanagement drum, I hear radio talking points, not things that we can 'know'.  

It's statistical noise to me.  And as a teacher, from my own experience, different groups of people relate differently to different styles of leadership. 

baseball fans want to measure everything, but some things can't be measured.

You generally only hear about those things right at the end and then it’s usually shortly followed by the firing. Journalists don’t need to know the vibe although I’m sure someone like say John Lott after decades of following the team was likely able to figure stuff out. In the current access climate with the pandemic shutting things out I think it would be much more difficult to find out. More likely what will happen is if things are about to break there will be some leak from someone in the org whether a player or staff member.

Anyway I just don’t think he’s a good coach because of the constant underperformance and the questionable on field decisions (even if mostly FO driven) so I’d rather replace him with someone better able to maximize this teams talents. Totally ofc my own opinion I just think the Jays can do better.

Honestly it's ridiculous to think that the manager doesn't decide when the pitchers are changed.

I suspect the pitching changes are a group effort - the manager and pitching coach are the top 2 in the decision effort, but the teams management also influences via tracking if the arm is dropping (a big sign a guy is about to be hit hard) and other indicators (speed changes, accuracy changes, etc). I think it is safe to say that before the game the manager, pitching coach, bullpen coach, and statistical team all sit down and figure out who is available and how available each game. Some of that we can guess (you'd rarely see a guy used 3 games in a row for example) some we cannot (no idea which guy woke up on the wrong side thus has a mild sore arm today).

There are a lot of factors. It isn't like when I was a kid and managers just went on gut feel for a lot of it. The days of a closer being asked to go 3 innings are long over, or of the closer going 3-4 days in a row.

Ugly,

I’ll call you and raise the wager that the opposite is true. This is a front office known to be replicating lots of things the TB Rays have done, including hiring former staff from them as well as Houston. Both organizations are forward thinking and utilizing philosophies of below the surface analytical numbers to make decisions. When Dan Schulman has more intel than the manager in game I don’t think it’s fair to assume the manager is calling the shots.

Maybe one day we will see a manager with headphones and a lap top managing the team like a video game, analyzing pitch by pitch like a Game Day experience. At least that way he has access to all the numbers. If you have your eyes on the game then you don’t have access to all the underlying numbers.

Schulman was actually on the Bob McCown show talking about how much info he has during a game, even pitch to pitch to track a pitchers fatigue. He tracks pitch speed to the decimal point so if Ray goes from 96.9 to 96.7 multiple times then he asks if he may be tiring.

The idea that Montoyo will make a decision based on a view from the dug out where he can’t even actually see the strike zone accurately is ludicrous to me.

whatever Seattle is doing.

I can tell you exactly what they're doing. They're enjoying a run of good luck. That's how a team that plays .475 ball in their other 80 games goes 25-14 in one-run games. It's not a skill, it's not an ability. It's a run of good luck, and good luck almost never holds up beyond the small sample that happens in a single season.

Remember Texas in 2016? They went 36-11 in one-run games. They went 13-24 the following year.
Pittsburgh in 2015 went 36-17. The next year: 20-21.
LA Angels in 2015 went 35-17. The next year: 17-20.
Baltimore in 2012 went 29-9. The next yer: 20-31.

This is a basic law of the game.

That's done before the game.
Montoyo spends the entire game talking with Pete Walker.
He doesn't make those decisions based on his guts.

Both pitching coaches have input on what relievers are available.
Also, the relievers are warmed up ahead of time and you try to insert them when they are the most likely to succeed.
Yesterday, they stuck with lefty relievers following Matz.
The day prior they tried using Richards who is a changeup artists best used against big left bats.
They just don't have enough heat in the pen right now.
Murphy had the stuff but couldn't execute.
That leaves who? Dolis?
Hand looked good yesterday.

This is the exact thing that happened when they pulled Shoemaker for Ray in the playoffs last year.
Shoemaker for 1 turn through the rotation and Ray for 2.
Might have worked if not for Jansen's passed ball.

Castro, Edwards Jr, Mayza and Pearson are currently rehabbing.
I think Edwards will be DFAed instantly, but I'm not sure.
He can still bring it.
Castro is too risky for my taste.

The Jays don't get Ryu for 80M if other teams think he can be this effective and this healthy.
And what Ryu says does not matter. He wanted to face Boston on regular rest and he got hit hard.
He also got shelled by the Rays in last year's playoffs.
If they get 6 good inning from him, I'm happy.
They just need to find 2 guys to get to Romano.

Charlie's personality seems unlikely to make him a great dissenter with the front office. (If only he had just an element of Eddie Shore about him.)

OK I'll bite.

Walk me through the entire process of Ryu getting pulled at that juncture, and who is making what decisions.

Connor Greene pitching with LAD. Drew Hutchison with Detroit.

Walk me through the entire process of Ryu getting pulled at that juncture, and who is making what decisions.

Hey, Pete - runner on third, one out, one run lead? If the next man gets on, should we bring in the RH who was so good last time?

I don't know, Charlie. We better phone Toronto and see what they say. They're probably still awake.

In other words, I think the quick hook for Ryu was the work of Pete and Charlie. Alas. If only they'd called Ryan and Luke back home they would have been informed that on pitches 76-100 the opposition hits .222/.283/.322 against Ryu. Why, they might have left him in.

Maybe they could also informed Pete and Charlie that there's not a whole lot of difference when hitters are facing Ryu for the second time in a game (.234/.279/.380) or they're facing him for the third time (.235/.279/.378).

Charlie's personality seems unlikely to make him a great dissenter with the front office.

The fact that they chose him to manage the team makes it unlikely that he disagrees with the organization's ideas about team building and game management. They would have hired someone else. But I would always recommend not taking the personality a manager presents to the media as meaning much of anything.

But even if Pete has input, it's still Charlie's call.

Or else Pete is the manager.

I'm with ugly on this one - the debate seems a bit weird.

Unless there is a completely revolutionary chain of command in this dugout, Montoyo is the one bringing in the reliever. The likely environment is one where he leans heavily on the advice of his pitching coach and trainers, but it seems so strange to make him sound powerless in this whole matter.

Hopefully it was not the front office that was behind Manoah throwing 114 pitches in a 5 run game while yanking Ray and Ryu in tight games at 90. Or using their 9th RP (Thornton, who had just been dded to the roster) first out of the pen in a 2-1 game after an off day.

It does look like he's throwing darts at a board with his pitching changes at times. For all the handwringing (including my own) over pitching choices that seem sketchy on their face, though, I'll say one thing about Montoyo - this team has had 3 homes in the past 4 months, with a lot of surrounding uncertainty. In that time, while they may not be running optimal, they haven't given in, either.

Pulling Ryu last time really annoyed me at the time. Reasonable pitch count, just walked a guy but was a double play from ending the inning. I figured there was something we didn't see - maybe he was tired due to heat or something that we can't see - he did seem to be sweating. I figured he should've been allowed to keep going, but if he had to be pulled I'd have gone to Cimber who seems best at handing runners on vs any other option available. Richards is the best K guy they got right now so I guess I can see why they went there, although obviously he didn't have it that day.

Second guessing managers (or management teams) is part of the fun of baseball. We just have to accept that there will always be a stack of information we don't have. I like to try to figure out the logic behind a move (or non-move) but recognize that info-gap we have.

Right now the team seems a bit tight vs earlier. That is a challenge for the manager to deal with and why I think managers now need to be therapists more than anything. Figure out how to get the most out of who they have. The one run win/loss is dumb luck, but Vlad, Bo, Teoscar, Ray, Manoah, Romano, Semien, McGuire all outperforming expectations is what matters most. Of course, Tellez, Biggio, Gurriel not reaching expectations is also a factor.

I think Charlie is probably safe until at least May or June next season. The presence of John Schneider makes him a candidate as interim manager. Generally, it is preferable to avoid making that decision mid-season.

Right now the starting pitching is overachieving and the bullpen is underachieving.
There are 5 starters and 9 relievers and increasing the load of the starters is not the solution.
The solution is to do the best they can with the guys they have until better guys return from the IL.

What might make Montoyo's job safe is that Schneider might already be in charge of a lot of the stuff people are unhappy with.

I think Charlie is probably safe until at least May or June next season.

You must think they'll be well under .500 at that point, as that's generally what it takes for an AL team to fire a manager in mid-season. Mid-season managerial replacements have grown quite uncommon in recent years among the AL teams. The only AL team in the last ten years to fire a manager in mid-season was the 2014 Houston team, who fired Bo Porter on August 31 with a 59-79 record. It's been twenty years since a manager got fired when his team had a winning record (Dun Duquette in Boston firing Jimy Williams in 2001).

Toronto fans may have an odd view of the possibility because the only two AL teams that have made three mid-season managerial firings over the last twenty years are Toronto and Baltimore. J.P. Ricciardi is the only recent GM to fire three managers in mid-season.

I went and looked up the last time each team fired their manager in mid-season. All sorts of fun facts. The last time the Yankees did it was June 1990, but it was the ninth time in just fifteen years that Steinbrenner had changed managers in mid-season. The only other times in Yankees history was 1966 (Johnny Keane) and 1910 (George Stallings.)

Fastest recent firing, possibly the fastest ever, was when Phil Garner was fired in Detroit after an 0-6 start in 2002. Can't blame GM Randy Smith - they canned him as well.

for the record, I hate criticizing managers. i defended Gibbons to the death. I've defended Montoyo most of the season. Because it's almost always the players, not the manager. A manager isn't at fault for having a weak bullpen, for example.


But in a playoffs race, in back to back games, pulling near-ace pitchers at 90 pitches in tight games WHEN THEY'RE NOT EVEN STRUGGLING AT THE TIME, to bring in MIDDLE RELIEVERS, just set me off. I can't make any sense of the decisions. How on earth any number would show that those middle relievers were better bets for the next few outs than Ryu and Ray is beyond me.

UO I do think you need to look at the circumstances of each pull. I can tell you first hand that it was ridiculously hot (it was still 33-34) at game time on the night Ray pitched. I wasn’t surprised in the slightest when Ray was pulled. I don’t know the circumstances of the Ryu pull so that may have been an early hook. I’m not defending Montoyo generally here, I think he’s been struggling with his bullpen management on and off all year (acknowledging that he’s trying to play a crap hand that he’s been dealt).

Ray is terrible the third time through the order.
Any middle reliever that bad would be off the team.
It's not really close either.
With Ryu, it's more a case of load management I think.
He was really good in April.
Struggled in May, than he's gotten a second wind since then.
He's currently averaging 5.78 innings per starts which is more than last year (5.58).
He was doing a bit better in 2019, but his ERA was 2.32 and his WHIP was 1.0, now it's 1.165.
So, it doesn't look like he's throwing fewer pitches than in those years.
He's at an all low strike out rate of 7.2 per 9.


Pulling the starter too late is a loss, that's basically the definition of pulling the starter too late.
You don't wait until they struggle. Ray struggles by giving up long balls. Oops.
Pulling the starter too early is harder to characterize. It's quitting when you're ahead. Selling high/buying low, etc.
With that huge pen, they should be able to cover 3 innings.
The hardest thing is probably bringing him someone who was warming up to come in later to finish an inning with runners in scoring position.

Per MLBTR, Jays have acquired Mallex Smith from the Reds - presumably as a September-expanded-roster callup to pinch-run on occasion..

I like Charlie, although I am largely indifferent. The Blue Jays are 95-82 since the start of last season. All things considered, that is quite an accomplishment. So, Charlie stays. For now.

Baseball managers tend to be less impactful compared to head coaches in other sports. Yet, it might seem harder to find a great manager. Perhaps it speaks to the implicit difference between coaching and managing. After all, focus is the key to baseball, not necessarily hustle.

I keep thinking John Schneider is the heir apparent. There is not exactly a host of established candidates out there. Buck Showalter? Hard no. John Farrell? He is asleep. Ozzie Guillén? Yikes! A first-time manager is likely the next great hire. Only who can identify the next Kevin Cash?

The idea of somehow poaching another current manager has crossed my mind, but none would seem likely to leave their current gig. Anyway, the only actual gripe I have with Charlie is bunting with 2 strikes. And not playing Kirk more, except that is a conspiracy.

There are rumours that Otto Lopez is being called up.

Saw a bit of the Angels-Yankees game.
Bullpen was shutdown, but getting some very favourable calls outside that they Angels were not getting.
That last strikeout  by Green had 2 strikes that were clearly balls. Meh.

J. Davis had to get a haircut. It looks like he shaved his head.
He made a nice catch and didn't even lose his hat.
Maybe it wasn't affecting his performance, but it took away from it. 

The manager is the one with the authority to change the lineup, which includes the pitcher even with the DH.
It's a bit like the governor general calling the election.
He's also the boss of the coaches. He doesn't coach the players individually. There's a whole bunch of coaches doing that and he's often not the one calling the offensive and defensive plays. Charlie was talking about using 4 outfielders once, but that's decided before the game. One thing I don't like is the pitcher not being included in the shifting strategy; I think shifting is a bad idea if you're trying to strike a hitter out with breaking stuff outside. Who's going to pull that? Especially while choking with 2 strikes.

Bunting with 2 strikes if fine if you're worried about a double play ball.
Doing it also keeps the infield in which makes it a lot easier to get a ground ball or a line drive through.
On an 0-2 call, the next pitch is often a ball. So if you take a ball with the bunt on, they'll keep the infield in.
What bothers me is the hitters not bunting properly. It's not really that hard.
They used to do drills in which you had to bunt into a bucket.
Those guys can't even put the ball in play.

The Jays have to play without the DH for the next two games. If I remember correctly the Jays have called up an extra position player for games in NL parks because of the pinch hitting opportunities. Will it be for more than 2 games?

What of Breyvic Valera, he hasn't distinguished himself.

That's a good point. The Jays have done very well in NL parks because they don't have a true DH.
What do they lose? The 7th or 8th hitter.
They can't DH Bichette or Springer here. Maybe give them a PH AB?
If neither can play, you want a guy who can hit replacing them.

Valera distinguished himself against Boston but has faded since.
Lopez can play 2B if Bichette needs more time.
Grichuk would have to be in center. They have a decent platoon in left with Gurriel and Dickerson.

I will settle for a swinging bunt. The old Baltimore chop.