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Game Threads Cleveland at Toronto, August 2-5
The Cleveland Baseball Team is coming to town to play four against those fun loving Blue Jays.


Things are not going well for the Guardians of the Future. Their two best pitchers, Shane Bieber and Aaron Civale, are on the 60 day IL. So is centre fielder Josh Naylor, who won't be back this year. Even their manager, Terry Francona, is out for the season. Former Jays coach Demarlo Hale will be the acting manager the rest of the way.

They have two good hitters - DH Franmil Reyes and 3B Jose Ramirez - and one good starter. They're still in second place, still holding even at .500, but they've been falling faster and faster - just over a month ago, they were 42-33 and only two games behind the White Sox. They've gone 9-18 since then, and slipped to nine games back. They threw in the towel at the deadline, and got what they could get for second baseman Cesar Hernandez (traded to the first place White Sox) and dumping the salary of left fielder Eddie Rosario (traded for Pablo Sandoval, whom they immediately released.) The only new face we'll see in their lineup this week will be speedster Myles Straw, late of the Astros.

Matchups:

Mon Aug 2 - Morgan (1-3, 7.47) vs Ray (9-5, 3.04)
Tue Aug 3 - Plesac (6-3, 4.26) vs Ryu (10-5, 3.26)
Wed Aug 4 - Mejia (1-6, 7.60) vs Matz (8-6, 4.58)
Thu Aug 5 - McKenzie (1-4, 6.11) vs Stripling (4-6, 4.75)
Posted by Magpie on Monday, August 02 2021 @ 01:00 PM EDT.
Cleveland at Toronto, August 2-5 | 224 comments | Create New Account
The following comments are owned by whomever posted them. This site is not responsible for what they say.
Mike Green - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 01:11 PM EDT (#404118) #
Guardians of the Future

Excellent, Magpie.  Greta Thunberg, our marketing agents are in the most unlikely places. 
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Chuck - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 01:30 PM EDT (#404119) #
So is centre fielder Josh Naylor

I wasn't sure if this was a joke or if I simply haven't been following the Ind..., er, Guardians closely enough this year. Naylor always seemed like a lumbering dude to me and not the body type to play center field. Or centre field, given his country of birth.

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Mike Green - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 01:35 PM EDT (#404120) #
Santiago Espinal bats 7th and Cavan Biggio 9th with a RHP out there.  Oh how things have changed.
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Cracka - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#404121) #
Corey Dickerson is with the team and on the verge of being activated. Breyvic Valera is the obvious candidate to be dropped, but he would need to be DFA'ed and could (and probably will) elect to become a free agent. Cavan Biggio is coming off a horrible July (175/222/263 in 63 PA), which was even worse than his bad April. I wonder if there would be any consideration to optioning Biggio and letting him play everyday for the next month or so and then recalling him in September?

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Chuck - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 01:45 PM EDT (#404122) #
Cavan Biggio 9th

I like him here, as a wrap-around leadoff man. If he starts hitting again like he did in the last two seasons, the story is different of course. But for now, maybe he can concentrate on resurrecting his on-base skills.

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pooks137 - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 01:51 PM EDT (#404123) #
Naylor always seemed like a lumbering dude to me and not the body type to play center field. Or centre field, given his country of birth.

On first read, I thought the last sentence implied that Josh Naylor couldn't play CentRE field just because he was Canadian, lol.

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pooks137 - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 01:58 PM EDT (#404124) #
Breyvic Valera's last two years with the team has a fever dream, Snuffleupagus quality to them, "unclear if he's an actual ballplayer that actually exists and not just a made up placeholder in the minor leagues in MLB The Show or OOTP" vibe.

Like the utility infielder equivalent of Julian Merryweather in the rotation or Brian Jeroloman as your 3rd catcher.
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92-93 - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 02:04 PM EDT (#404125) #
Regarding Myles Straw, when was the last time a division leader traded their everyday CF for a reliever?

The Indians lineup is not good beyond Jose Ramirez and Franmil Reyes. Old friend Harold Ramirez bats 5th for them and at .266/.305/.416 he's their 3rd best hitter.

Might as well sweep these guys too and ride some serious momentum into the series with BOS.
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jerjapan - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 02:08 PM EDT (#404126) #
I like Biggio 9th too, that wrap around lead off hitter can offer real value at that spot in the lineup. 

But I wouldn't option him to protect Valera.  Urena or Colon in AAA could fill the same spot, and both seem to be playing great. 

Personally, I'd want to give a AAAA guy like Valera a chance to go somewhere with playing time.  It's just like the Raps / 905 ... if these players make it to the bigs through your system, other quality AAAA players will sign with you.  Same thing with the Growlers / Leafs - some of these ECHL guys see opportunity to play with the Marlies. 

And if the FO wants to option Biggio to find himself at the plate / in the field, and run with the hot hand at 3rd for a while, sure, why not. 
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uglyone - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#404127) #
I'm not a Santiago espinal believer but I would ride him when he's hot. Biggio/gurriel/Grichuk should all be fighting for every at bat they get, not handed anything.

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uglyone - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 02:20 PM EDT (#404128) #

Here’s a nugget on Hyun Jin Ryu.
He’s historically been better with an extra day of rest and has preferred it in some instances.
Not this week.
He asked to pitch Tuesday so he could be lined up to face Boston on Sunday. He wants the ball against the divvy leaders.#BlueJays

— Scott Mitchell (@ScottyMitchTSN) August 2, 2021
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hypobole - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 02:48 PM EDT (#404130) #
Espinal lately has not been hot. Remember you pointing out his .390-ish BABIP a couple of weeks back, and how it would regress. You were right big time. The past 14 days he's hit more than a few balls right at fielders for a .190 BABIP.

But he's still added 0.1 fWAR. Plus baserunning and plus fielding. And this cold 14 day batting stretch is mitigated somewhat by an 11.5 BB%, 3.8 K%.
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Polite Nate - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 03:00 PM EDT (#404131) #
When Dickerson comes back, it feels like it would be a good time for Biggio's neck to act back up again and get some convenient IL time.

I've thought all season that Espinal will be overexposed as an everyday player as his BABIP comes back down, but he's definitely earned the chance to prove me wrong and has spent most of the season successfully doing so.

It strikes me that Montoyo's approach to playing time has changed this season. It felt like in prior seasons, if you were on the bench you were going to get some starts. Maybe I'm imagining it. But this season, Jonathan Davis was left to rot, and same goes for Valera. Not that either of them have really done anything to prove they deserve differently, but I'm a little puzzled why they haven't thrown either of them a bone and let them start the odd game here and there. Definitely feels like a win-now shift in strategy compared to past years.
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Eephus - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 04:23 PM EDT (#404132) #
For a dude with an ERA over 7, this Morgan guy is dealing. Jays are chasing a bit though.
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jerjapan - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 04:42 PM EDT (#404133) #
“Remember long live and prosper?”

No Pat, I don’t.
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scottt - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 04:51 PM EDT (#404135) #
Not the first time they struggle against a soft tossing lefty.
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Eephus - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#404137) #
These older references have their charm, but Buck I might be the only person in the universe under 40 who knows what Gumby is.
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Chuck - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#404138) #
Nope, I had a posse of 20-somethings in my backyard yesterday all discussing Gumby. He's timeless!
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Chuck - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 05:02 PM EDT (#404139) #
Not the first time they struggle against a soft tossing lefty.

You watching the game in a mirror?

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Eephus - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 05:03 PM EDT (#404140) #
Damn. Shows what I know!

That HR from Vlad is one of his more impressive ones... and he has a lot of impressive ones. The definition of a missile.
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Magpie - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#404141) #
I might be the only person in the universe under 40 who knows what Gumby is.

Hell, I don't really know who Gumby is and I'm older than dirt. I do remember Eddie Murphy on SNL going "I'm Gumby, dammit." But he was clearly making some kind of cultural reference I wasn't familiar with.

Oh, and Eli Morgan is pretty much the opposite of a soft-tossing lefty so I don't know what that was.
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Chuck - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 05:04 PM EDT (#404142) #
This dismal Cleveland team doesn't figure to see .500 for much longer. A 20-40 finish to their season isn't out of the question.
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Magpie - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 05:06 PM EDT (#404143) #
You watching the game in a mirror?

I actually did that once. It was amazing. Suddenly, all the RH batters had beautiful swings.
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uglyone - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 05:09 PM EDT (#404144) #
OK let's see if our new bullpen can clutch it up long enough for our bats to win a big game, after Ray gutted through 6.
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Eephus - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 05:37 PM EDT (#404145) #
Soria has that veteran junkbally-ness I love. Changing arm angles, changing speeds, no two breaking balls look the same. I hope it works because sign me up for that.
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christaylor - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 05:40 PM EDT (#404146) #
I forget... did we trade for clutch hitting at the deadline?
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mathesond - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 05:44 PM EDT (#404147) #
You can't remember who you traded for?
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christaylor - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 05:47 PM EDT (#404148) #
Are you going Wilner on the "we" or being snide about my memory? Perhaps the cash considerations for Axford included a clutch?
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James W - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 05:51 PM EDT (#404149) #
The Brewers called up John Axford to replace Josh Hader, who is on the Covid list. Toronto sold him to Milwaukee earlier today.
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uglyone - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#404150) #
"I forget... did we trade for clutch hitting at the deadline?"

I chortled a bit when Buck mentioned earlier that Jays led the league in hitting with RISP, and were 2nd in the league in hitting with RISP and 2 outs.

Who knew?
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uglyone - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 05:55 PM EDT (#404151) #
Clutch glove by Randal a couple times tonight.

Springer continues to impress me with better range than I expected.

The OF defense with both of them in it is not bad.
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mathesond - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 06:00 PM EDT (#404152) #
Ask a silly question, get an annoying answer
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greenfrog - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 06:02 PM EDT (#404153) #
Kirk has the ability to end it here.
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hypobole - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 06:06 PM EDT (#404154) #
Almost would have been better for Espinal to make an out. Gonna start the bottom of the 10th with Kirk on 2nd.
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Magpie - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#404155) #
Kirk has the ability to end it here.

Jeez, not for the other guys.
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greenfrog - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 06:11 PM EDT (#404156) #
Looks like the Brad Hand doesn’t know what the left hand is doing.
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Eephus - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 06:12 PM EDT (#404157) #
The Blue Jays might have been dealt a bad Hand here.
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Nigel - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 06:15 PM EDT (#404158) #
Hand doesn’t pass the eye test. He looks toasty.
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lexomatic - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 06:27 PM EDT (#404159) #
Just because a playet takes a roster spot doesn't mean they'll occupy the same role. It still doesn't look good,  but not the washy the comment reads.
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Kasi - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 06:52 PM EDT (#404160) #
As long as this team continues to suck at hitting after the sixth it’s going to be hard to go on any consistent runs.
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Glevin - Monday, August 02 2021 @ 07:43 PM EDT (#404161) #
It was bad by Hand but for me bigger issue is how team is so reliant on four guys to carry offense. Dickerson off IL tomorrow apparently which is great because he can play regularly against righties which just gives Jays a better offense.
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Kasi - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 12:57 AM EDT (#404164) #
On the matter of Axford vs Hand it looks like they traded Axford for 1 dollar and then he blew his elbow out tonight. Eeekz.
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scottt - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 08:23 AM EDT (#404167) #
Just lost to a team that relies on 2 guys to generate all their offense.

Yankees got beat 7-1 by Baltimore.
Cole returned from Florida positive.

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Chuck - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 11:31 AM EDT (#404169) #
bigger issue is how team is so reliant on four guys to carry offense

Did you mean five? Or are you intentionally leaving out one of the guys with an OPS+ above 120?

And without investigating this, are other teams' offenses configured differently? Even the the non-five on the Jays include several with an OPS+ in the 90s, so below average but not sinkholes.

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Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 11:51 AM EDT (#404170) #
Cleveland pitcher Zach Plesac is the nephew of Dan Plesac, his father's brother. Cleveland pitcher Cal Quantrill is the son of Paul Quantrill. Dan Plesac and Paul Quantrill were Blue Jays teammates in 1997, '98, '99, and 2001.

Young Zach controls baserunners quite well. In 43 career starts: 3 stolen bases allowed, 3 caught stealing, 9 pickoffs. Uncle Dan had 10 pickoffs during an 18-year career. (Dan was also a lefty and vulnerable to steals of 3rd base.)
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Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 12:13 PM EDT (#404171) #
Coach Luis Rivera played 781 games in the Big Leagues. A shortstop, he hit 28 career home runs. Just one came vs. Toronto.

Today, exactly 30 years ago - August 3rd, 1991 - Luis Rivera hits a solo homer over the Green Monster against the Blue Jays' Boomer Wells. Red Sox win 4-1.

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Mike Green - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 12:41 PM EDT (#404173) #
Apropos of nothing, how did I not know until today that Luis Tiant's father was also a great pitcher, but a skinny left-hander instead of a solid right-hander like his son?  I mean, I saw Tiant pitch maybe 10 or 15 times on the TV and no one ever mentioned it that I can recall.  I guess that I better start reading more about the Negro Leagues. 
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John Northey - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 01:25 PM EDT (#404174) #
Given the worst OPS+ on the active roster is 83 for Biggio I'd say the lineup is decent. Jansen at 62 is the worst currently on the 40 man who has played in the majors. The Red Sox have one at 29, 2 in the 70s, and one at 45. Just 4 over 112 vs 7 for the Jays.
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Kasi - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#404175) #
Once again it’s the situational hitting. Keegan wrote an article yesterday after the game going over some of the stats.

1-6 inning: .827 OPS 1st in majors
7-on: .685 OPS 20th in majors

If you look at late and close the Jays are even worse, being like 2nd or 3rd worst in the majors. I know I know not predictive but it is what it is. We all know if the Jays get into a close late game they’ll just hack and miss or hit into a shift or find a glove. We know they won’t score and this bullpen even with improvements will let in runs and the Jays will lose. Until this stat normalizes to something more in line with their overall hitting stats the Jays won’t go on any big winning streaks and they won’t make the playoffs.
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92-93 - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 04:55 PM EDT (#404183) #
Apparently Montoyo told the media Biggio "deserves credit for playing hurt”. He might, but if so the manager deserves blame for knowing about it and continuing to roll him out there out of position. Cavan hit .227/.317/.387 since his return from injury. His play not made at 2B was quite costly yesterday.
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Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 05:14 PM EDT (#404184) #
how did I not know until today that Luis Tiant's father was also a great pitcher

You think that's bad? I didn't know until last week that Felipe Alou and his brothers Mateo and Jesus were really the Rojas brothers. (Felipe didn't feel empowered enough to correct everybody when he came up back in the late 1950s.)
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Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 05:45 PM EDT (#404185) #
So I'm looking at the 1964 Braves because I couldn't remember why Felipe was playing first base when he could have handled centre field. And I start looking at Warren Spahn - 1964 was the year he finally fell apart, after pitching 245 IP every year from age 26 through age 42. He started out mediocre (5-4, 4.24), went totally to crap (1-7, 7.14), and they banished him to the bullpen. In the final week of the season he picked up three saves. Hello? I took a look.

The first one was legit. In the next one, he came in with an 11-3 lead, two on and one out in the ninth inning. He allowed the two runs to score, he got the final two outs. Final score 11-5. They gave him a save.

The next day, he took over to pitch the ninth inning. He had a 6-0 lead. He got the three outs. They gave him another save.
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92-93 - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 06:14 PM EDT (#404188) #
Even Spahn's first save of the season was interesting. He started the first game of a double header and got pulled in the 2nd inning after giving up 5 runs, but Milwaukee won the game anyway thanks to HRs from Hank Aaron, Rico Carty, and Joe Torre. Just a few hours later in the second game Spahn came out of the bullpen in the 8th inning up 11-10 and threw two scoreless innings for a legit save. The final score was 15-10 after Aaron hit another 3 run HR in the 9th.
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92-93 - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 06:20 PM EDT (#404189) #
Then you probably also learned that the Mets manager Luis Rojas is Felipe's son and Moises' half-brother.
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scottt - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 06:21 PM EDT (#404190) #
Biggio to the 10IL.
Dickerson activated.

Am I missing a DFA?

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Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 06:23 PM EDT (#404191) #
And naturally I went tumbling down a rabbit hole. Spahn went to the Mets the following year. So did Yogi Berra, who said of Spahn and himself "I don't know if we're the oldest battery in the league, but I know we're the ugliest." Alas, Berra never did catch Spahn - he caught two of Al Jackson's starts and retired.

But that sent me to the video of Jackie Robinson's famous steal of home in the 1955 World Series. Berra swore to the day he died that Robinson was out - he signed photos of the play "He was out!" - and if you look at the video... yeah, he was probably out. But here's the thing. It's the eighth inning, you're losing 6-4, and the pinch hitter at the plate hit .325 that year. Jackie, what are you doing? (And that pinch hitter singled to centre immediately thereafter.)
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Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 06:26 PM EDT (#404192) #
the Mets manager Luis Rojas is Felipe's son and Moises' half-brother.

I knew that - I think it's what promoted me to finally dig into the mystery of these names! Felipe Rojas Alou! Oh, I get it!
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Mike Green - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 06:31 PM EDT (#404193) #
Seeing the 1964 NL season mentioned here, reminded me that the Cardinals made a late charge from well back to win the pennant and ultimately the World Series.  So I checked where they were around this time.  On August 5, they were 55-51 tied for 5th with Spahn's Braves, 8 games back of the Phillies and 6 back of the Giants. And they had scored precisely the same number of runs as they had allowed.  The Giants appear to be the best team in the league that year, and I really don't know what happened to them down the stretch (most of the attention was on Gene Mauch's Phillies and the "short" rotation).  I guess I'll have to look that up too.  I do know that Steve Treder wrote about the serial disappointments of Giants' fans of that era, with the McCovey liner into Richardson's glove the nadir of a really bad time.
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Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 06:36 PM EDT (#404194) #
Am I missing a DFA?

I don't think so, Dickerson was already on the 40 man.
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Leaside Cowboy - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 06:42 PM EDT (#404195) #
"Jeez Alou!"
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Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 06:43 PM EDT (#404196) #
Breyvic Valera lives another day, and starts at 3b. Dickerson is the DH.

And Jonathan Davis has been claimed by the Yankees. If he pulls a Gio Urshela and becomes a major league hitter, it will prove that Brian Cashman has sold his sold to Old Nick.

He probably did anyway.
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Mike Green - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 06:53 PM EDT (#404197) #
I know you don't believe in these things, Magpie, but Jonathan Davis has an xwOBA of .308 (league average .312) in his 241 major league career PAs.   For reference, Randal Grichuk's xwOBA this year is .307.    All Davis has to do is hit a little better than his current xwOBA and he's a pretty good player.  I know that you don't have faith and now that he's with the Yankees, it will be a bitter blow if he does exactly that. 
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Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 07:01 PM EDT (#404198) #
Oh, I believe in many, many things. Just not Jonathan Davis, major league hitter. (It's his minor league record that really gives me pause - when he was... adequate at AA and AAA, it was his second crack at the level. Which always makes me suspicious.) But, hey - if he can hit .240 he's a fourth outfielder. He's got to hit .200 first.

The 1964 Giants weren't as good as they should have been and the offense was the biggest problem. (I initially thought it was the pitching, but not so much.) McCovey's foot problems popped up that year, and he had a very down year (.220/.336/.412, just 18 HRs.) They had three great hitters (Mays, Cepeda, Hart) cancelled out by three black holes (2b, ss, rf) in the lineup and no bench.
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92-93 - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#404199) #
The ESPN Jays schedule has them facing a righty in each of the next 8 games so Valera might finally get a chance to show something. Bit surprised though it's with Ryu and his 48.3 GB% on the bump. Hopefully his 19:24 K:BB in AAA translates to good ABs.
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greenfrog - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 07:25 PM EDT (#404200) #
Springer’s slash line in 2021 is pretty similar to his performance over the last couple of years. He’s an impressive hitter.
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Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 07:29 PM EDT (#404201) #
So... the Yankees go to Tampa Bay and two starters come back with COVID. Because Florida is basically one big hot zone these days. The Red Sox were there after the Yankees, and then the Mariners. But this is no way for a pennant race to play out.
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Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 07:37 PM EDT (#404202) #
And with Rene Rivera hitting the IL, Riley Adams has been called up by the Nationals. Not in tonight's lineup.
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Polite Nate - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 07:48 PM EDT (#404203) #
I have no idea if Valera is going to be any good, but I'm glad he's finally getting a start at least. I know people gripe about big bullpens but I'd even take another reliever over someone who's going to pinch hit once a week and play the 9th inning of a blowout. Especially with Biggio playing hurt, it has me scratching my head. Can't steal some PAs from a taped up 80 wRC+ with defence issues in Biggio this year? Why even have him on the bench?
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92-93 - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 07:50 PM EDT (#404204) #
The Yankees were in Miami this past weekend. Miami-Dade's vaccination rate is higher than Toronto's.
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Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 08:32 PM EDT (#404205) #
The Yankees were in Miami this past weekend.

And Tampa Bay before that.
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scottt - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 08:41 PM EDT (#404206) #
According to the New York Times, the 7-day average for new cases was 250 in Miami-Dade (where my mother in law lived the last 20 years, but she moved back here before the closed the border) at the end of June. Now, it's exploding. 7-day average for Aug 2 is 2226 new cases.
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scottt - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 08:48 PM EDT (#404207) #
Hard to get numbers on the official government site.

Message from the Mayor
"Dear fellow resident:

We have recently seen an enormous and and alarming rise in COVID cases across our community and the country."

Goes on to say masks are required everywhere federal regulations are in effect and in all indoor County facilities.
Is Florida one of those states with orders preventing mask mandates in businesses?

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uglyone - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 08:55 PM EDT (#404209) #
SP on 6.0ip+/gm streaks:

Berrios (5): 6.0 7.0 6.0 7.0 7.0
Ryu (2): 6.0+ 6.0
Ray (2): 6.0 6.0
Manoah (1): 7.0

This makes me happy.
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Magpie - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 09:04 PM EDT (#404210) #
Is Florida one of those states with orders preventing mask mandates in businesses?

"There will be no restrictions and no mandates in the state of Florida" says the governor. Unless you're a trans kid who wants to play sports or something like that.
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uglyone - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 09:40 PM EDT (#404211) #
Sure hope marketing is smart enough to start selling those HR jackets.
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scottt - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#404212) #
Glasnow is having TJ tomorrow, so basically we won't see him again until 2023, his last year of control.
Will the Rays trade him so they don't have to pay him?
They typically trade players before they reach their contract year.

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pooks137 - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 11:17 PM EDT (#404213) #
Nothing personal against Jonathan Davis, but I don't care if he becomes a major league hitter at this point.

He's playing in his age 29 season. He just seems younger because he has options left and he runs fast.
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uglyone - Tuesday, August 03 2021 @ 11:39 PM EDT (#404214) #
(I never cared about Jonathan davis)
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Michael - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 12:42 AM EDT (#404215) #
My county of California has gone from a daily average of 25 cases a day 1.5 months ago to 227 cases a day now. And that is with 78.2% of those 12+ fully vaccinated and 84.3% of 12+ at least one shot. And in a section of the state/country where people do wear masks and/or follow science to some extent.

But we have gone backwards on mask mandates as it used to be that we were only required to wear a mask indoors in most places if not vaccinated, but as of 20+ hours ago we are back to everyone required to wear masks any time you are indoors anywhere (other than your own home).
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scottt - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 08:49 AM EDT (#404219) #
It's interesting that the Yankees lost of couple of hard throwing pitchers in the rule 5.
They debuted Gil yesterday and he threw 6 shutout innings with 6Ks and 1 walk.
Ridings and Koerner pitched the other 3 innings--with a 12 run lead.
After the game, Gil was optioned back.

That's not the Yankees pitching we saw earlier or last year.
Montgomery has joined Cole on the Covid-IL.
For the Mariners series, fangraphs predicts a Yankees rotation of Nestor Cortes, Clay Holmes, Andrew Heaney and Nick Nelson.

Davis has limited earning potential.
Every extra day on a 40-roster is great news for him.
Is he better than some of the guys the Yankees have used this year?
Florial has actually been good. Ryan LaMarre has been OK (.768 OPS),
Andujar and Frazier are on the IL. So is Trey Amburger, apparently.  Locastro and Hicks are probably gone for the year.
Tauchman had a .552 OPS for the Bummers but he's with the Giants now.
Hoy Park?

[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#404220) #
Looking at the standings today, we are in a playoff race. Very impressive from 2019 when we lost 95 games.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 09:48 AM EDT (#404221) #
Blue Jays with 20+ PA's the past 30 days.

Springer has the highest K% (25.5) but also the highest wRC+ (173), thanks to 8 doubles and 7 home runs.

Who has the highest BB% the past 30 days?
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 09:59 AM EDT (#404222) #
Not sure, but Gurriel Jr. has been walking a lot more lately (especially compared to his minuscule walk rate for much of the season). Could he be the surprise answer?
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 10:15 AM EDT (#404224) #
Gurriel it is and just like you said. 9 BB's in his past 70 PA's after drawing only 8 BB's in his first 292 PA's.

12.9 BB% the past 30 days. Next closest were Espinal 9.3% and Vlad 9.1%.


[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#404225) #
Went back this morning to see if the scoring was changed on McGuire's bunt double. I would have scored it a single and E 5. I think the last one was Biggio vs Tampa back in 2019. That was a worse bunt but a real double.

https://www.mlb.com/bluejays/video/biggio-knocks-a-bunt-double
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#404226) #
Hey man, you don't need to hit your way off the island, you're already off it.

Gurriel's brother waited until age 37 to see the virtue in walking. Hopefully his little brother sees the light earlier.

Gurriel and frere are 9 years apart but have similar hitting profiles:
Y 292/334/472/117 OPS+
L 280/319/481/115 OPS+

Interestingly, Gurriel the younger strikes out at twice the pace, perhaps just a product of his generation.

[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 10:46 AM EDT (#404227) #
That would be a tough error to give Jose Ramirez because it was a mental one (if an error at all), not physical. He was playing by SS in the shift and tried to pick up the ball with his bare throwing hand to make a play on McGuire instead of safely gloving it first. It was a beautiful bunt from Reese.
[ Reply to This ]
bpoz - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 10:57 AM EDT (#404228) #
Looks like McGuire and Kirk are sharing the catching duties equally. SSS.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 11:58 AM EDT (#404229) #
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 12:00 PM EDT (#404230) #
Obviously the official scorer agrees with you, and much of what you said was true. It was a beautiful bunt and Ramirez did have to come from the SS position. But he did get to the ball and should have made a play on it. If he gloved it first, he had no chance to throw out McGuire.

The only chance was barehanding it. Almost, but not quite impossible with a clean pick, depending on the strength and accuracy of his throw. But he completely whiffed on the slow rolling ball. To me. that whiff is an error. Here's the play.

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/oxhsxr/reese_mcguire_strokes_out_a_bunt_double/

Apparently, McGuire now joins Biggio as the only Jays ever with bunt doubles.

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#404231) #
[Spahn] came in with an 11-3 lead, two on and one out in the ninth inning. He allowed the two runs to score, he got the final two outs. Final score 11-5. They gave him a save.

I sent an inquiry to bb-ref about this very thing (I've encountered many strange things in the Save columns over the years) and here's what they said:

Starting in 1969, a relief pitcher earned a save when he entered the game with his team in the lead and held the lead for the remainder of the game, provided that he was not credited with the victory. The extra qualifications involving the size of the lead did not come into effect until 1974. Before 1969, even though the save did not exist as a statistic, the 1969 definition is retroactively applied.

Okay then.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 12:53 PM EDT (#404232) #
The Jays are 6 over .500 for the 4th time. The 1st time, it was followed by a 6 game losing streak, the 2nd time 3 game losing streak, the 3rd time 1 game. So this time it has to be 0 games. Math never lies.
[ Reply to This ]
mathesond - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 01:19 PM EDT (#404233) #
And baseball is all about the numbers!
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#404234) #
Starting in 1969, a relief pitcher earned a save when he entered the game with his team in the lead and held the lead for the remainder of the game, provided that he was not credited with the victory. The extra qualifications involving the size of the lead did not come into effect until 1974. Before 1969, even though the save did not exist as a statistic, the 1969 definition is retroactively applied.

Okay then.

I thought that there wasn't a consistent definition prior to 1974.  It turns out that it's a longer story than that.  Emma Baccelliere has all the details.  But, yes, BBRef made a rare error by backdating an obviously ridiculous save rule that MLB discarded (on its own terms) relatively quickly.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 02:31 PM EDT (#404235) #
Talking saves, how many 3 inning saves have there been this year?

I have no clue how to find that info. I know Milone had a blowout save for us and Boston's Houck had one in 4-0 win over the Yankees. But that's the only 2 I know of.
[ Reply to This ]
Leaside Cowboy - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 02:34 PM EDT (#404236) #
"all about the numbers!"

Wins-Above-Replacement has become perhaps the leading statistic in baseball analysis. It allows pitchers and hitters to be compared on the same scale, only computed differently. Applying the WAR measure to historical records generally confirms which players were truly elite. In football, the Quarterback-Rating compares. WAR is more sophisticated than QB-rate in another sport. Overall, I think of it as a useful guide.

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 03:38 PM EDT (#404237) #
Wins-Above-Replacement has become perhaps the leading statistic in baseball analysis.

Because it's so freaking handy. I've moaned about it, and I've moaned about its effect on the discussion of the game - but it's just so handy and so easy to be able to reduce everything to one single digit. And there are actual circumstances - when large numbers of players are being crudely compared to one another - when it's very useful to have a single digit to impose some order on the discussion. It's just so handy!
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 03:54 PM EDT (#404238) #
"Because it's so freaking handy. I've moaned about it, and I've moaned about its effect on the discussion of the game - but it's just so handy and so easy to be able to reduce everything to one single digit. And there are actual circumstances - when large numbers of players are being crudely compared to one another - when it's very useful to have a single digit to impose some order on the discussion. It's just so handy!"

Yup. It's actually not a very accurate statistic. Differences of 1-2 are not seen as significant and it has other massive flaws (i.e. D much less accurate than O) but it's a pretty handy summary. People, myself included, tend to use it in a way more precise than it actually us. Most of the time, it's not actually a great stat.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 04:18 PM EDT (#404239) #
WAR is so good and well used now that average fan convos are now recognizing both its utility and its limitations, so I don't think anyone finds themselves in arguments pitting "war is perfect and he beat him by 0.5war!!!" against "WAR means nothing you nerd!!!" anymore.

Every baseball discussion im in now seems to to understand the ballparking approximate nature of war and be able to discuss why or why not one player's war advantage over another may or may not be real.

In fact it seems rare to ever argue much anymore between players with vastly different WAR production - its almost a background assumption now that they should be in the same ballpark in WAR before arguing about the nitty gritty differences.

[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 04:32 PM EDT (#404240) #
Mize pitching for Detroit tonight (Rodriguez starting for Boston). This may give the Jays a chance to pick up a game on the Red Sox. TB beat Seattle this afternoon, making the race for the second wild card spot a bit tighter. Oakland is currently leading SD 1-0 in the early going.

A bit early in the season for scoreboard-watching, I know...
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 04:38 PM EDT (#404241) #
And WAR is becoming more accurate as time goes on. FG added framing a few years back and now they are even discussing using OAA for much of their defensive stats rather than UZR.
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 04:50 PM EDT (#404242) #
Tellez just jacked a 3 run, pinch hit homer to put the Brewers in the lead. He's now up to .245/.321/.427 this year, a higher OPS than Gurriel and Grichuk.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 04:59 PM EDT (#404243) #
Tellez was just trying to be chasin' Shreve, but Shreve was unchastened and got the third out of the inning. 
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 05:01 PM EDT (#404244) #
Shea Spitzbarth on to pitch for the Pirates.  Do they have a thing for names now at the confluence of the Allegheny, Monongahela and Ohio Rivers?
[ Reply to This ]
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 05:08 PM EDT (#404245) #
"Differences of 1-2 are not seen as significant and it has other massive flaws (i.e. D much less accurate than O)"

1-2 WAR differences are, I believe, typically seen as significant, if not utterly determinative.

I think the problem is not so much that it's inaccurate to the degree indicated, but that it's incredibly complex under the surface, combining things which are hugely within a player's control with those which are not. Theoretically, the luck-based elements more-or-less wash out with larger samples, but they are still there and can have a significant impact on WAR, especially in smaller samples.

There's a particular problem comparing fWAR for pitchers with other types of WAR, because fWAR for pitchers is based primarily on what should have happened, while all other types of WAR are based mainly on what did happen.
[ Reply to This ]
Paul D - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 05:41 PM EDT (#404246) #
It's also not intuitive that your war isn't equal to your owar plus dWar
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 05:52 PM EDT (#404247) #
The Padres are now up 3-1 on the A's. If San Diego can hold on for the win, a Jays win tonight would bring them to within two games of the second WC spot (and a tie with Oakland in the loss column).
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 05:56 PM EDT (#404248) #
WAR is becoming more accurate as time goes on.

I think, by definition, it can't be accurate - it's based on a whole series of theories about how the game works, and what constitutes value, and how much value, of the many different things that happen. We perhaps find more recent calibrations more useful or more helpful or more satisfying.

Runs scored and allowed - they're accurate!
[ Reply to This ]
vw_fan17 - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#404249) #
It's also not intuitive that your war isn't equal to your owar plus dWar

This x1000.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 06:08 PM EDT (#404250) #
"fWAR for pitchers is based primarily on what should have happened, while all other types of WAR are based mainly on what did happen."

But fwar is certainly based on what happened. It just believes only certain things that happened are under a pitcher's control.
[ Reply to This ]
GabrielSyme - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 06:44 PM EDT (#404251) #
"But fwar is certainly based on what happened. It just believes only certain things that happened are under a pitcher's control."

Well, fair enough and perhaps I was imprecise, but fWAR still moves the dial backwards on what is "under a [player's] control", from runs to fielding-independent events. There isn't a similar effort to distinguish what batting events are under a batter's control by any WAR system.
[ Reply to This ]
jerjapan - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 07:06 PM EDT (#404252) #
Awesome to see Rowdy doing well.  A lot of us were supporters, and it's wonderful seeing this young dude, who lost his mom recently, finding a home in a pennant race. 

Did you guys read this?  So good.  I love this team right now, these kids are so easy to pull for. 
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 07:13 PM EDT (#404253) #
The Padres are now up 3-1 on the A's. If San Diego can hold on for the win

Never mind that...
[ Reply to This ]
Kasi - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 07:28 PM EDT (#404254) #
Springer really likes to lead off it seems. Anyway we’re up against good teams and they’re going to continue winning so Jays need to just be better than them.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 07:39 PM EDT (#404255) #
Holding a runner at first and getting a ground  ball is partially under a pitcher's control.
Maybe just as much as hitting a homerun is under a hitter's control.

[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 07:40 PM EDT (#404256) #
I'm going to have to stop scoreboard watching for a while.

Amazingly, Springer's OPS (1.001) this year is nearing that of Vlad (1.066).
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 07:55 PM EDT (#404257) #
Franmil Reyes is only 25. That kinda surprised me.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 08:34 PM EDT (#404258) #
That was awfully impressive from Semien. What a good player he is.
[ Reply to This ]
Glevin - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 08:45 PM EDT (#404259) #
This is a really fun team to watch and root for.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 09:02 PM EDT (#404260) #
Oh, the Blue Jays are playing tonight? Is it 8-0 yet?
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#404261) #
Anyone missing those 2 decent prospects yet?
[ Reply to This ]
Eephus - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 09:52 PM EDT (#404262) #
Saucedo probably misses his old number.
[ Reply to This ]
Kasi - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 10:00 PM EDT (#404263) #
Yay Cimber I’m definitely a big fan of him.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 10:19 PM EDT (#404264) #
Hey now bullpen.
[ Reply to This ]
Kasi - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 10:25 PM EDT (#404265) #
Romano has done okay but when I looked at Jays bullpen pitchers he was one who got a major hit from sticky stuff in regard to spinrate. He’s still been doing alright but he’s definitely taken a hit.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueMonday - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 10:26 PM EDT (#404266) #
The Jays win a close game (2 run margin). It’s a good thing, right?
[ Reply to This ]
electric carrot - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 10:27 PM EDT (#404267) #
This was a deflating 6-5 loss in the first half of the season without Springer and his 3 rbi.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 10:31 PM EDT (#404268) #
Anyone have an update on Julian Merryweather?
[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 10:34 PM EDT (#404269) #
Saucedo probably misses his old number.

He threw 13 pitches and his ERA went from 2.03 to 4.73.
[ Reply to This ]
BlueJayWay - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 10:38 PM EDT (#404270) #
Yeah Romano has not been the same since the sticky stuff crackdown. Also, saw this on twitter:

Over his last 9 appearances 8.2 IP, 11 H, 4 BB, 8 ER, 5 HR

[ Reply to This ]
Polite Nate - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 10:48 PM EDT (#404271) #
I was just about to put Romano's numbers here - since July Romano is absolutely not doing fine. He faced a lot of Tampa/Boston over that span, but all the same I do not trust him at all right now. I'm perversely hoping he continues to lock down 4/5 run leads so he's hopefully too tired for the higher leverage spots.

This is the kind of game that shows how meaningless your record in "close games" is without context -- this is a W for TOR and a L for CLE but it's not a game you're going to point to positively when it comes to talking about grit or clutch or bullpen management.

[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 11:31 PM EDT (#404272) #
Yikes. Thanks for the numbers guys.

So given such convincing evidence....who's the next choice? Soria? Hand? Pearson?
[ Reply to This ]
Kasi - Wednesday, August 04 2021 @ 11:59 PM EDT (#404273) #
Bullpen by committee. Aka just play matchups. Pearson or Merryweather obv would be improvements but who knows when they’ll be ready.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 12:10 AM EDT (#404274) #
Soria just got DL'ed which is why Saucedo was back. Is Hand any improvement on Romano? Pearson is supposed to make a complex league start soon, so still a while away.
[ Reply to This ]
Nigel - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 01:38 AM EDT (#404275) #
Hand would be near the last choice for me, he really hasn’t passed the eye test so far. I’d actually have Hatch close in Buffalo for a bit. Hatch was pretty dominant in stretches last year in the pen.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 08:57 AM EDT (#404276) #
They're going with Pearson for the high leverage arm.
Fingers crossed.

[ Reply to This ]
Thomas - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:12 AM EDT (#404278) #
If memory serves correctly, going back to his last couple of appearances with the Nats, Hand has allowed seven runs in his last 2.2 innings. So....not him.

I read recently that Montoyo described Merryweather as "not close."

I'd probably use Cimber as a closer for the time being, if he could be deployed in non-traditional closer situations, as well.
[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:21 AM EDT (#404279) #
I read recently that Montoyo described Merryweather as "not close."

Sadly, that's probably the default position, at all times, where Merryweather is concerned. It wasn't that long ago that he was annointed the next Tom Henke after just 4 innings. Alas, those might be the last 4 we see from him, at least this season.

Re Romero's demise, he has always felt like house money. Granted closer status after a strong 15 innings in 2020, and having no in-house competition for the job, it is not surprising now to see that he is merely good, not great. It will indeed be interesting to see how they opportunities for saves get meted out absent an obvious frontrunner.

[ Reply to This ]
Chuck - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:23 AM EDT (#404280) #
I'd probably use Cimber as a closer for the time being

He's very vulnerable to LHB, but there certainly would be situations where that threat would be minimal, particularly in this day and age of short benches.

[ Reply to This ]
pooks137 - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:36 AM EDT (#404281) #
Cimber is also the most vulnerable of all of your closer options to the BABIP Gods whims because of his well below average K rate.

That's not ideal for Jays fans and coaches who already have PTSD from bullpen horrors this year.
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scottt - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:49 AM EDT (#404282) #
They are already using Cimber a lot.

Oh, yeah. 2022 schedule is out.
They open in Baltimore. Home opener against the Rays.
16 of the 20 Interleague games are against the NL Central.
The other 4 are against the Phillies. That's not bad.
Easter long weekend and Canada Day long weekend series. (Oakland and Tampa)
In Seattle July 7-10.
Season ends hosting the New-York and Boston.

[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:57 AM EDT (#404283) #
I wonder if Ross Stripling could effective handle some of the high leverage relief work, presumably in longer outings.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 10:10 AM EDT (#404284) #
I was wondering if Matz could. Especially if his velo plays up in relief to more of a 97 fb and a 90 sl.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 10:31 AM EDT (#404285) #
You could try that, but Matz has no experience in the pen whereas Stripling does.  I'm not keen on mid-season conversion to new workloads in an important role. 
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 10:36 AM EDT (#404286) #
For some reason I like starters chances of becoming closers rather than middle relievers. But thats not based on any data.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 10:39 AM EDT (#404287) #
If they are auditioning for the 5th starter job, Stripling's got his work cut out for him after yesterday.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 10:54 AM EDT (#404288) #
You probably want to think about increasing the leverage on Tim Mayza's work also.  He's been awfully good against LHHs but also perfectly decent against RHHs.  Mayza and Cimber make a nice complementary pair.
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 11:12 AM EDT (#404289) #
Mayza's in that "he's been so good I don't really want to risk ruining it by upping his leverage" category to me.

But maybe it's the right idea.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 11:22 AM EDT (#404290) #
Here's the Statcast list by pitcher of expected statistics from batted ball data for the season.  Obviously there are some limitations.  Dolis has slightly better expected statistics than Ryu, but Ryu has been able to beat his expected ERA by a substantial margin every year since 2017 while Dolis has, um, not. 
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 11:24 AM EDT (#404291) #
With all this Romano talk you'd think the guy has been blowing saves routinely lately, but he hasn't blown a 9th inning save opportunity the entire season. The bullpen will be fine if the starters continue to go deep (relatively) into games. Having Stripling as a long reliever will be a big boost too. Manoah may have been a candidate to move into the bullpen to limit his innings, but after his recent DL stint Montoyo made it seem like he's good to go for the rest of the season.
[ Reply to This ]
ISLAND BOY - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 11:27 AM EDT (#404292) #
"Re Romero's demise"

I was reading this and thinking," I don't remember Ricky Romero ever closing". Then I saw the year and realized you meant Romano, Chuck. Romero certainly had a demise, though.

Cimber and Mayza are ideal 7 and 8th innings guys. I don't know how they'd be in the closer role. What we need, of course, is the big, bad closer who, when he enters the game, you know it is a guaranteed win. The Jays are great at running up leads against weaker teams but, boy, do they need someone who can hold a lead in later innings against good teams. ( Plus some timely hitting)
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 11:42 AM EDT (#404295) #
Romano hasn't come in with less than a 3 run lead in the 9th since June 23. At that time, his ERA was 1.37.  He has no history of being able to sustain performance over a season.

Do we have spin rate progressions over the season for him?  He's certainly maintaining velocity. 
[ Reply to This ]
uglyone - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 11:55 AM EDT (#404296) #
well, we don't have a big bad closer, so that's not happening.

we don't necessarily need one of course - we just need a guy who won't get rattled there.

he doesn't have to be our best guy - we can use guys like Cimber or Mayza in the highest leverage situations without giving them the added pressure of being "the closer".

it's walking a tightrope but it can work.
[ Reply to This ]
greenfrog - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 11:59 AM EDT (#404297) #
Hand has gone through a tough stretch, but he may rebound over the next month or two. Give him adequate rest, use him in lower leverage situations for now, and increase his leverage if/when he improves. Also, Walker may come up with some suggestions to improve his effectiveness.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 12:16 PM EDT (#404298) #
Fans like to do a lot of worrying.

Dave Laurila talks to Bo at Fangraphs.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/bo-bichette-talks-hitting/

Oh and once again, math spoke the truth. :)
7 over .500 and climbing! (I hope).
[ Reply to This ]
Thomas - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 12:38 PM EDT (#404299) #
Hand has gone through a tough stretch, but he may rebound over the next month or two. Give him adequate rest, use him in lower leverage situations for now, and increase his leverage if/when he improves. Also, Walker may come up with some suggestions to improve his effectiveness.

I'm not discounting that possibility, but Hand's advanced stats this year were trending downwards. I think your plan makes sense to limit his usage to lower-leverage situations; I just think he may end up stuck there. This is a situation where the three-batter rule may limit his usage, since facing a minimum of three batters is different from bringing him in for one tough lefty.

I agree with respect to the comments about being careful about Cimber's usage, which is why I suggested a non-traditional closer usage for him. Which I'm not sure is something Montoyo would want to do. And I do get the argument that he's succeeding in the 7th/8th inning role right now, so why mess with what's working for him.

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 12:50 PM EDT (#404301) #
we don't have a big bad closer

Rafael Dolis is pretty big. He's given up two singles in his last seven outings. I don't know if that makes him bad.
[ Reply to This ]
Kasi - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 12:59 PM EDT (#404302) #
TLDR here but to answer the questions on Romano if you go to baseball savant and look he’s taken a roughly 200 spin rate hit on both his slider and four seam. Slider has seen a slight rebound in last couple appearances but in general he’s lost a good deal of spin rate since mid June.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#404303) #
Thanks, Kasi.  Romano's spin rate on his slider was 2310 in May, 2153 in June, 2081 in July and 2290 so far in August.  Whatever is happening with his slider doesn't seem to be related to the sticky stuff rules.    On the other hand, the pattern for the 4 seamer is pretty clear- 2487 in May, 2426 in June, 2334 in July and 2290 in August.  His four-seamer stopped being effective in July- with xwOBAs of .203 and .228 in May and June, and .368 and .386 in July and August.  Romano has thrown 101 four-seamers in July and August and given up 4 homers.  He had not given up any homers on the four-seamer in 2020 or in April, May or June, 2021 (372 pitches).  The loss of spin on the 4 seamer seems to have led to make it easier to square up and hit out of the park (as in Mercado's homer yesterday). 
[ Reply to This ]
Leaside Cowboy - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 01:42 PM EDT (#404304) #
Cleveland's starter tonight is 24-year old Triston McKenzie. He was drafted 42nd overall in 2015. So far this season: 63.1 IP, 46 H, 43 ER, 14 HR, 45 BB, 79 K. McKenzie spent a few weeks with AAA Columbus back in June. He throws a 92-mph four-seam fastball for 63% of his pitch selection.

Max Scherzer's Hollywood premiere was the headline from last night's game with Houston. The night before, we did see one garbage can thrown onto the field. Actually, I was looking forward to bedlam.

Next Thursday, August 12th is the Field of Dreams game between the Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees. On the same farm, a new field has been specially built about 150 yards away from the original baseball field in the movie. It will be the first MLB game played in Iowa, the Hawkeye State.

[ Reply to This ]
mathesond - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 01:54 PM EDT (#404305) #
Actually, I was looking forward to bedlam.

Well, all you needed to do was look into the stands:

https://twitter.com/Mart_innn/status/1422786709536665602

https://twitter.com/dixongogetem/status/1422814291917373441
[ Reply to This ]
92-93 - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#404306) #
Martin Perez just got yanked in the 2nd inning in Detroit, making it only 10.1 IP for BOS SP this series. The bullpen toll bodes well for the Jays this weekend.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 02:02 PM EDT (#404307) #
Covid new cases in Florida yesterday was hovering around 12K.
The governor calls it a "seasonal spike". Not going to close anything. 
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 02:06 PM EDT (#404308) #
In 1843 Edwards moved his newspaper, the Fort Madison Patriot, to Burlington and renamed it the Burlington Hawkeye.

That's it?

Ontario could be the lone Star Province, I guess then.
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Chuck - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 02:12 PM EDT (#404309) #
Then I saw the year and realized you meant Romano, Chuck.

What? We're not talking about Jordan Romero who pitched in the independent leagues in the early 2000s?

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scottt - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 02:15 PM EDT (#404310) #
It's only 0-3. Looks like Perez was injured.
Robbie Grossman was hit by a pitch and left the game in the following inning due to "elbow injury".

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85bluejay - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#404311) #
J.R. Richard died today at 71 - I remember when he was a terror on the mound and then had a stroke that cut short his career - he apparently had a tough life afterwards - RIP.
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scottt - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 02:22 PM EDT (#404312) #
I don't know. Maybe it's not throwing as many sliders that is making the 4-seamer hittable.

In the 9th, all the extra runs don't mean anything.
I don't have a problem with the hitter putting the ball in play, especially early in the count. 
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bpoz - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 04:36 PM EDT (#404313) #
RIP JR Richard.
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Hodgie - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 04:40 PM EDT (#404314) #
Kiley McDaniel published his updated top-50 prospects list, and four Jays made the list:
  • Manoah (12)
  • Pearson (22)
  • Moreno (36)
  • Martinez (38)

Just missing the cut but in the next 20 under consideration were Kirk and Groshans. Former Jay Austin Martin also was in that next group.

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scottt - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 04:43 PM EDT (#404315) #
Final score 1-9. They used some relievers, but I wouldn't worry too much about that.
They're going to call Houck from AAA to pitch the second doubleheader.

Add Gary Sanchez to the Covid-IL.
It sure looks like the beginning of the 4th wave.

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Mike Green - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 05:25 PM EDT (#404317) #
Jose Ramirez is not in the lineup today for Cleveland. 
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92-93 - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 05:30 PM EDT (#404318) #
Good riddance! 4/14 with 2 HR and 0 K this series. Wonder how much more than Martin + SWR was the price tag on Ramirez.

Kirk watches from the bench again tonight. Presumably he’ll get two of the 4 games against Boston.
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Kasi - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 06:01 PM EDT (#404320) #
Seems pretty clear they don’t trust him much as a catcher, which leads me to my former question in how much they were willing to let the backup C DH. He’s a good enough bat to get in the lineup just as DH but he hasn’t got into many games that way lately it seems.
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Magpie - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 07:03 PM EDT (#404321) #
Seems pretty clear they don’t trust [Kirk] much as a catcher

They seem to be OK with him catching Ray, who has a very simple game plan - here comes something hard, hit it if you can. Kirk has caught 6 of Ray's starts.

Since coming back up, he's caught 2 of Stripling's, 1 of Manoah and 1 of Matz. He has never caught Ryu. Back in April, he was like the designated catcher for the random fifth starters and openers - he was in the lineup for games started by Zeuch (twice), Roark, Phelps, Milone, Thornton, and Bergen.
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Magpie - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 07:47 PM EDT (#404322) #
I always check these stories out.

Tabler never had three hits in a game against Charlie Hough while he was a Blue Jay, but in August 1992 Hough started against the Jays twice in the same week. Tabler had two hits in the first game, one in the second. (And Sprague was in the lineup for both games as well.)
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Glevin - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 07:57 PM EDT (#404323) #
Playing McGuire everyday is a bad idea. He just isn't very good. If they didn't trust Kirk to play, they should have traded for a catcher.
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Magpie - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 08:00 PM EDT (#404324) #
Playing McGuire everyday is a bad idea. He just isn't very good.

Well, he's certainly not supposed to be very good. But he has hit .290/.335/.400 in more playing time than the other two catchers. And the team has gone 27-15 when he's in the starting lineup, which is the sort of thing that keeps them running you out there.
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hypobole - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 08:36 PM EDT (#404326) #
McGuire per FG defensive metrics is good. And he's hit RH pitching well enough both this year and career despite his lack of power.



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greenfrog - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:07 PM EDT (#404327) #
BA’s International Big Board for the 2021-2022 international signing class links the Blue Jays to Luis Meza, a 5’11” 185lb 16-year-old catcher. Here’s a partial quote:

“Venezuela consistently is home to top international catchers, with Diego Cartaya (Dodgers), Francisco Alvarez (Mets) and Ronnier Quintero (Cubs) in the most recent signing classes. Meza fits into that tier of players as a catcher who projects to stick behind the plate and is one of the better hitters in Venezuela.”

Sounds like a great (anticipated) signing by Toronto.
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92-93 - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:19 PM EDT (#404330) #
Give Mayza the 9th.
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hypobole - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:20 PM EDT (#404331) #
As much as they mentioned McKenzie's walks, this is the 4th time is his last 5 starts he's walked 1 or none.
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Kasi - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:24 PM EDT (#404332) #
Catcher metrics is the one area where public really doesn’t have much insight into how teams evaluate them. It really doesn't matter if Kirk is a superior hitter if he gives up that much more behind the plate. I do think he should get more DH reps because his bat is good and the risk of losing the DH spot isn’t that great.

I wonder if they’re going to go back to Romano in the ninth tonight.
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uglyone - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:25 PM EDT (#404333) #
Don't mind if a pitcher gets booted for throwing at a guardian next inning.
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uglyone - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:34 PM EDT (#404334) #
At this rate Cimber gonna earn a spot in my heart right next to childhood fave Eichorn.
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greenfrog - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:39 PM EDT (#404335) #
The Cimber/Dickerson trade was a very good one by the front office. Nice that they were able to execute that move well before the trade deadline, too.
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Kasi - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:44 PM EDT (#404336) #
Cimber is very good and Richards is quite solid too. Both really good pickups. Nice to see the coaching staff didn’t run Romano right out there again.

They did get the three out of four but somewhat disappointed that it wasn’t a sweep that was doable. Now they get a reeling Sox team and need to do the same. All our best starters are starting this series as well.
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hypobole - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#404337) #
8 over .500 after tonight. 1st time since 2016 I think.
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Magpie - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:49 PM EDT (#404338) #
The team is now 28-15 with McGuire starting behind the plate. They've gone 19-20 with Jansen, 8-9 with Kirk, 2-5 with Adams. It's not the sort of thing I'd want to argue with.

Ryu has better overall numbers with Jansen, but that may be because his June sag coincided with Jansen's first DL stretch. (His first June start, with Jansen catching, was actually his worst of the year.) His last two starts with McGuire have been outstanding. Manoah hasn't worked with Jansen. The other three have all done better with McGuire.

Data Table Time!

                             G     IP    ER   ERA    PA     AB    R     H   2B 3B  HR  SB  CS   BB   SO   SO/W   BAVG   OBP   SLG    OPS
                                                                                    
Manoah     Alejandro Kirk    1     7     0    0.00    24    23    0     2    0  0   0   0   0    1    4   4.00   .087  .125  .087   .212
Manoah     Reese McGuire     8    40.1  13    2.90   168   149   16    28    6  0   7   0   0   15   52   3.47   .188  .280  .369   .649

Matz       Alejandro Kirk    2     6     2    3.00    24    21    2     4    0  0   1   0   0    3    6   2.00   .190  .292  .333   .625
Matz       Danny Jansen     12    62.1  32    4.62   270   249   32    68   12  1   9   0   0   17   66   3.88   .273  .330  .438   .767
Matz       Reese McGuire     6    25.1   8    2.84   112   104    9    29    4  2   2   2   1    6   24   4.00   .279  .321  .413   .735
Matz       Riley Adams       1     2.2   4   13.50    13    13    4     5    1  0   1   0   0    0    3   ----   .385  .385  .692  1.077

Ray        Alejandro Kirk    6    34.2  10    2.60   144   129   10    29    7  0   4   7   0   15   32   2.13   .225  .306  .372   .678
Ray        Danny Jansen      6    36.1  15    3.72   146   137   16    28   11  1  10   3   1    7   42   6.00   .204  .247  .518   .765
Ray        Reese McGuire     5    30.2  10    2.93   121   115   10    26    4  0   5   1   1    5   46   9.20   .226  .264  .391   .656
Ray        Riley Adams       4    22.2   7    2.78    94    88    7    19    1  0   4   3   0    6   34   5.67   .216  .266  .364   .630

Ryu        Danny Jansen     13    76    24    2.84   305   288   26    68   16  2   8   0   1   14   70   5.00   .236  .270  .389   .659
Ryu        Reese McGuire     6    35    14    3.60   145   137   15    36    8  0   3   0   0    6   26   4.33   .263  .297  .387   .683
Ryu        Riley Adams       2    12     6    4.50    49    44    6    10    3  0   3   0   0    5    6   1.20   .227  .306  .500   .806

Stripling  Alejandro Kirk    2    10.1   3    2.61    39    38    3     9    2  1   1   0   1    1    7   7.00   .237  .256  .421   .677
Stripling  Danny Jansen      5    20    16    7.20    96    85   15    28    8  0   6   0   0    9   22   2.44   .329  .389  .635  1.025
Stripling  Reese McGuire    12    61    26    4.25   249   229   25    48    9  0  12   3   1   17   62   3.65   .210  .261  .406   .667

[ Reply to This ]
Magpie - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 09:51 PM EDT (#404339) #
Forgot to update Stripling's ERA with McGuire (I did BAVG, Slugging, and I forgot ERA?) - anyway, it's now 3.84
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uglyone - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#404340) #
Does that chart say Kirk has the best catchers ERA?

Nice to see McGuire doing well. I never quite understood why a 1st round pick great defensive catcher with everything but power was dismissed as a prospect.
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Magpie - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 10:03 PM EDT (#404341) #
McGuire per FG defensive metrics is good.

Still, I don't think anyone has a clue how to measure what I suspect is by far the most important defensive metric for catchers - how does he call a game, how does he handle his pitcher?

It's nice that we now understand how much a difference pitch framing can make - it explains Jose Molina's long career - but it doesn't account for Jeff Mathis.
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Magpie - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 10:07 PM EDT (#404342) #
Does that chart say Kirk has the best catchers ERA?

It certainly would. Obviously, the samples are pretty tiny with the exception of Robbie Ray. His work with Ray is interesting. They've kept the runs from scoring, which is the main thing, but look at the walks.
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Magpie - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 10:22 PM EDT (#404343) #
The team ERA is 3.61 with Kirk, 3.74 with McGuire, 4.04 with Jansen (Runs per game is closer, 4.12 to 4.14 to 4.36). Opponents have lower BAVG, OBP, Slugging with McGuire catching. The pitchers have a better K-W, more baserunners have been thrown out.

Which is what McGuire was always supposed to be - a better catcher than Jansen. He wasn't supposed to be a better hitter.
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Thomas - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 10:24 PM EDT (#404344) #
Yanks are about to defeat the Mariners on a 3-run homer by Gallo in the 7th inning.

I agree with Kasi and Magpie in that there is still so much defensively about catchers that we are still learning how to measure, if that's possible. I also suspect what teams have in their proprietary data on catcher defence would be so interesting to read.
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hypobole - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 10:30 PM EDT (#404345) #
"Still, I don't think anyone has a clue how to measure what I suspect is by far the most important defensive metric for catchers - how does he call a game, how does he handle his pitcher?"

Teams do internally. To what extent I don't know, but definitely far more than any of us.
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Kasi - Thursday, August 05 2021 @ 10:41 PM EDT (#404346) #
Thomas: Kevin Goldstein has said on fangraphs that catcher metrics is the biggest difference between public and private metrics and he would know having been in the Astros front office. Ofc he can’t go and talk about that proprietary stuff but it makes sense when you see people like Mathis still catching despite not being able to hit.
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Mike Green - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 07:54 AM EDT (#404347) #
Prospects I was entirely wrong about, #165.  Santiago Espinal.  I thought "decent fielder, marginal hitter", and headed for a backup IF role.  That is the role he is in, but man is he good at it.  He's not a decent fielder- he's an excellent fielder.  And for an excellent fielder, his hitting is not marginal at all, but perfectly adequate. The smooth barehanded stuff is nice, but it's his beautiful and consistent throws across the diamond that are a constant source of satisfaction to watch.

And the numbers?  As usual, the defensive numbers don't quite agree- UZR thinks he is very good and DRS thinks that he is Scott Rolen-level great (actually a little better if you must). The Statcast data is in the middle, which is probably the safest place to put him.  So, in 222 PAs he has 1.3 fWAR and 1.7bWAR with most of his value being defensive.  Strangely enough, I think he has another gear in him, this time offensive.  He's knocked his K rate down this year and shown that he can handle the fastball.  And his walk rate is up.  With his pattern of growth, it wouldn't surprise me at all if he learns to control the strike zone even better and pushes his walk rate up north of 10%. 
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scottt - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 08:54 AM EDT (#404350) #
Pipeline's comments from 2018 when he was 23rd in the system:
Espinal's defense is a separator. His athleticism is on display at shortstop, where he has above-average range, soft hands and the above-average arm needed to stick at the position. He's also seen time at both second and third base, and it's led some evaluators to peg him as a future utility infielder at the highest level.

They also talk about his speed on the basepaths and the potential to steal double digit bases.
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greenfrog - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 09:44 AM EDT (#404352) #
Barring injury, I think we're in for an exciting couple of months. The team is playing with a lot of confidence and they're obviously having fun. The addition of Berrios, Dickerson, and the bullpen arms -- and the return from injury of Springer and Kirk -- has resulted in a deeper, more flexible roster. The Jays are now an excellent team that has a very good chance of making the postseason.
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Glevin - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 10:12 AM EDT (#404353) #
Count me as extremely skeptical of the McGuire as an elite defender talk for two reasons. 1) He doesn't pass the eye test. Catcher Defense is very hard to quantify but I see McGuire making plenty of mistakes, not moving over well, backhanding balls, poor framing, etc... 2) He passed through waivers making minimum salary a few months ago. Teams have their own metrics on catcher D but I think it's pretty safe to say that if anyone saw McGuire as an excellent defender or close, making $570K, they'd be snapping him up. He's a way better defender than Kirk for sure but also a way worse offensive player.
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uglyone - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 10:30 AM EDT (#404354) #
I'm not sure the eye test is even the most important thing to being a good catcher.

More likely the most important thing is some ineffable ability to just plain make your pitchers comfortable, focused, and locked in.
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Magpie - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 11:17 AM EDT (#404356) #
McGuire's framing may not pass the eye test, but Jays pitchers walk slightly fewer hitters (3.09 per 9 IP) than they do with the other catchers (Kirk 3.11, Jansen 3.19) and they strike out more (McGuire 9.8, Jansen 9.5, Kirk 8.0).

But it's his ineffable impact on winning that I like. They have a losing record when any of the other guys starts the game. They're 28-15 when McGuire starts. I don't care if it's a fluke, I'm going with it. It's always better to be lucky than good anyway.
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bpoz - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 11:21 AM EDT (#404357) #
What ever the 2021 Jays team is I think it can do better.

How?

I expect we lose Semien and Ray. But will Semien duplicate his 2021 season? And for how long? Same 2 questions for Ray. A full season from Springer will cover a lot of Semien's production. Maybe others also pick up for lost Semien production. Donaldson is a player who lost production since 2015 when he was 29 years old. Semien is 30 years old at the moment.

Our 6 SPs in the rotation is currently a deep and good rotation. Not expecting the 2022 rotation to be as strong as we currently are. Having hope though.

Hoping for a better pen in 2022. But it can always be worse. Better quite likely.
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SK in NJ - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 11:26 AM EDT (#404358) #
I could see Espinal carving out a Maicer Izturis (pre-Blue Jays version) type of career. Very solid utility infielder who can cover multiple positions and not hurt you with the bat. Hopefully he gets the bulk of the playing time at 3B with Biggio out.
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ISLAND BOY - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 11:32 AM EDT (#404359) #
For some reason Espinal reminds me of Manny Lee.
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Nigel - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 11:44 AM EDT (#404360) #
I think one of the challenges with McGuire and the eye test (and this goes for Kirk to some extent as well) is that we're used to watching Jansen at C. I think that Jansen is a very good defensive C - by eye test and otherwise.

Whatever his long term future, Espinal is clearly in a groove right now and they should just ride that at 3B for as long as that lasts. I think he should be in there every day right now with Biggio injured.
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uglyone - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 12:04 PM EDT (#404362) #
Was Manny Lee even actually good defensively? I thought I remembered him having a weak arm and not all that much range.
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Leaside Cowboy - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 12:36 PM EDT (#404365) #
Speaking of Maicer Izturis, he tore up his knee in 2014 when he slipped on the dugout steps. Alek Manoah's injury was thankfully minor, although the premise was eerily similar. Likewise, Michael Barrett was injured in 2009 when he tripped on the clutter of the on-deck circle and never played again. I suppose the whole world cannot be bubble-wrapped...

I joined Team Espinal on April 25th, following his RBI in the 1-0 win at Tropicana Field.

Reviewing the catchers' ERA and other measures, the numbers are remarkably alike. The biggest outlier is that win-loss record, as Magpie has noted. (And, of course, the context of which catcher is working with particular pitchers.) As long as Kirk does not struggle defensively like Gary Sánchez, I think he will be just fine. He deserves more than 3 starts at DH.

Alejandro Kirk - listed 265 lbs. Alek Manoah - listed 260 lbs. Is that the beefiest battery in team history? 525 lbs.
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85bluejay - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 01:13 PM EDT (#404366) #
I heard former catcher Buck Martinez in a radio interview just before the trade deadline express reservations about Kirk's ability behind the plate and his conditioning, apparently he gained weight during his injury time and Buck felt he gets fatigued later in games he's catching - Buck felt the Jays should try to acquire another veteran catcher - hopefully Jansen returns in September.
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hypobole - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 01:33 PM EDT (#404367) #
Yeah, I thought of Izturis when I heard about Manoah's injury. One other one - Michael Saunders ripping up his knee when he stepped on an exposed sprinkler head in Dunedin.

On McGuire - yes he's not VERY good. But none of our catchers are. Statcast has him as slightly above average framing this year, Jansen and Kirk slightly below average. He controls the running game better than either Jansen or Kirk.

McGuire has hit righties well, even better than Kirk this year. Even Jansen is kinda OK for a catcher vs RHP. Kirk has been the only one of the 3 to hit lefties - McGuire is awful, and for some reason, Jansen even worse.
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Magpie - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#404368) #
Alejandro Kirk - listed 265 lbs. Alek Manoah - listed 260 lbs. Is that the beefiest battery in team history? 525 lbs.

Nah. I give you Jose Molina (250 lbs) and Jon Rauch (290 lbs).
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hypobole - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 01:40 PM EDT (#404369) #
Posted something a while back on Kirk's relationship with one of the Jay's nutritionists. Kirk refuses to eat healthy, all he would do is eat smaller portions of what he wants to eat.
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Magpie - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 01:59 PM EDT (#404371) #
all he would do is eat smaller portions of what he wants to eat.

That's what I do! It works for me! (Hmmm. Maybe "works" is not the proper word here.)

I'm not quite sold on Espinal yet, but I think he's probably hit more balls hard this season than Manuel Lee hit in his life. I remember Lee as... some guy. (But definitely not A Guy.) Generally adequate defensively. Probably it was barely adequate, but... adequate. I remember no memorable plays at all, ever, good or bad (well, there was that extra inning game in 1987, but he was just a baby filling in.)
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electric carrot - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 02:11 PM EDT (#404374) #
Kirk refuses to eat healthy
Wow. Not a strong statement on Kirk's character. I mean particularly with VGJr's example starkly written all over the stat sheets. Does he realize how much those french fries cost? Could be thousands of dollars each.
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jerjapan - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 02:45 PM EDT (#404375) #
My only clear memory of Manny Lee was my friends and I calling him '3 pitch Manny'.
Humbly speaking, '3 Pitch' remains a great nickname for a crappy hitter.  '3 pitch Danny'?


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scottt - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 03:43 PM EDT (#404376) #
Personally, it's Jansen I find hard to watch, and I'm not the one pitching to him.
He does not provide a target at all. Maybe he's good at decoying the other team, but it must be pretty hard for pitchers trying to find the strike zone.
The framing talk is extremely overrated. The umps are misjudging pitches at a high rate.
There was one this week--not a Jays game--where a ball was called on a fastball dead center. 
If an ump calls anything close a strike for one catcher and not another, that's bias and it's all on the ump.
The umps could go back and review their calls and improve if they wanted to. They don't.
It's not framing. It's ump bias.

Pitching in the last week as been excellent.
They just had a shutout.
Weird time to complain about catcher defense.

The only game they lost in this series, I wondered how it would have ended if McGuire had replaced Kirk in the top of the 10th rather than in the bottom. There was an early passed ball that moved the runner to 3rd which led to the infield playing in and the first hit.

McGuire was an automatic out last year. That's mostly why he cleared waivers.
Fangraphs ranked the Jays 5th at catcher before the season started.
That was based on OPS of .736 for Jansen, .779 for Kirk and .647 for McGuire.
McGuire projected for 0.2 fWAR but has produced 1.2 so far.
Jansen projected for 1.9 fWAR and has produced 0.0 so far. ( 0.3 last year)
Kirk projected for 1.0 fWAR and has produced 0.4 for far.

[ Reply to This ]
dalimon5 - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 03:46 PM EDT (#404377) #
If we’re focusing on a discussion of catcher framing ability right now it tells me that the team is strong and there aren’t a lot of weak points to discuss.
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 03:48 PM EDT (#404378) #
Arozarena to the Covid IL. Yes, they were in Floriday.

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lexomatic - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 03:49 PM EDT (#404379) #
So i have a lot of thoughts about sizeism and fatphobia disordered eating in all the talk about Kirk. I hope nobody has issues there that have been affected.  Anyway ..size not necesarily unhealthy. Yes,  it's harder for someone who spends lots of time putting pressure on their knees. Eating when your body tells you it's needed is something most people lose, and many nutritionists can lead to disordered eating. BMI is also junk science and lots of medical thought isn't based on valid research.
Fatphobia kills people and stuff like this makes me mad (note i was VERY unaware for a long time and now i notice how it's everywhere). So I'm just asking people think a little about how they talk about other people's bodies before they post.
[ Reply to This ]
hypobole - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 04:19 PM EDT (#404380) #
Shouldice nutritionists put me on a diet. I was not told how much to eat or when to eat. I was told what I should eat and what I should not eat. I lost over 20 lbs. And I'm not a professional athlete.

I agree fatshaming people is wrong. But so is your opinion of proper nutrition. And there are plenty of studies (whether you wish to believe them or not) that show direct links between obesity and cardiovascular disease.
[ Reply to This ]
Mike Green - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 04:34 PM EDT (#404381) #
Maximizing mobility and endurance is part of the job of a ballplayer.  Good nutrition aids in that, whatever the body type. 

Incidentally, Vladdy looks to me like he's slowing down.  I hope that he's sticking to the routine. 
[ Reply to This ]
scottt - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 04:39 PM EDT (#404382) #
My first reaction is to say that weight issues should not impact the performance of a young player much, but then Vladdy certainly demonstrates the opposite.
[ Reply to This ]
Leaside Cowboy - Friday, August 06 2021 @ 05:26 PM EDT (#404386) #
In the larger sports world, whether it's baseball, football, or hockey, I tend to think most players perform better lean-and-mean. One would think all these players are like astronauts, being monitored daily for all body changes. Jimy Williams frequently fined George Bell for being over-weight.
[ Reply to This ]
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