Looks like Friday night is sold out.  The lowest price Saturday is $103.

Shulman says he's calling the 3 Jays games this weekends, in between Olympic basketball games.

Ben Wagner working solo? on the radio.

Royals played Thursday afternoon, probably got to TO a few hours before the Jays.

CN Tower is lit up in Blue Jays colors tonight.

Michael had an interesting statement at the end of the Red Sox thread about how realignment would benefit the Jays and how they might have qualified for the playoffs multiple times in the last 20 years if they had played in the American League Central.

That is a debate onto itself but it lead me to looking at a cool site, the Baseball Almanac year by year MLB standings. They go back to 1901 and not only have the standings but also a synopsis of different things that happened in the league each year plus the leaders in a lot of the traditional categories, both hitting and pitching, as well as the top 25 in each category. ( Socks Seybold led the American League in home runs in 1902 with 16.)

In the years I looked at in the 2000's,the standings also showed the payrolls of each team. In 2008 the Jays finished 4th with 86 wins and a payroll of 51 million. The Yankees were 3rd with a payroll of 209 million. The Rays finished first with a payroll of 43 million which must have really ground George Steinbrenner's gears. Anyway I thought I would mention this site for anybody interested in the history of the game.

If LAD get Scherzer and Turner they give up good prospects and the luxury penalty gets worse. I think.

SD is making moves to win now. They are doing ok/well this year in that they should make the playoffs. Darvish and Musgrove are doing V well. Weathers is having a good season. Padack and Snell are not doing well. They traded for Darvish, Musgrove, Snell and Clevinger. Machado, Hosmer and Tatis are all expensive. Luxury tax costs are a threat now or may be soon.

I was curious what the Dodger's luxury tax was now, bpoz, and looked it up a little while ago. Spotrac has it at 285 million while Fangraphs has it at 281 million. Not sure what the difference is but the Dodgers are in a different stratosphere as far as salary goes.

Payroll parameters and playing in the ALE are KNOWN factors for the Jays.

TB and Baltimore have windows of contending that close for reasons that can be figured out, understood and analyzed IMO.

Boston and NYY are always in a window of contending. For 2021 Boston on pace for 98 wins. 2020 would have produced a 65-97 W/L record. Boston 2018 108-54 and 2019 84-78. They seem to bounce around. They mostly contend and had Dombrowski. NYY are always contending.

I don't yet know how the Jays view contending at the moment. The farm keeps getting better and better. Vlad, Bo are excellent recent products of the farm. The farm is still strong because of acquiring and hoarding prospects.

As of this AM:

TB: significantly added
NYY: significantly added
BOS: added
TOR: meh

Well, the Giants are in first place, Dodgers second, 3 games behind, Padres, 3rd, two and half game behind the Dodgers.  They are probably all playoffs bound but a Dodgers-Padres wild card game would be pretty intense.

So, it's not about wanting to have the most stars on their roster, but about winning in October.
Jays have stars at 1B, 2B, SS, RF and CF. 

Gomes is a strange target for the Jays, but catcher is still a weak hitting spot.

Looking at the Yankees, the cost for Gallo was a second round pick, a third round pick, a fifth round pick and an international signing. All guys who have looked good at the rookie/A ball level.

With Adams traded, the new 30th prospect on MLB pipeline is Canadian Curtis Taylor.
He came over in the Eric Sogard trade. Currently a reliever in Buffalo--It's okay to say that now.
He's part of a bunch of guys who didn't get picked in the last rule 5 draft, but Baker, Harris even Overton have been better.

It looks like the Jays have now adopted a 6 man rotation including Hatch.
Ray will continue to pitch on 4 days of rest. Ryu on 5. Everyone else moves to accommodate, I think.
There's a double header against Boston on August 7.

Boston's weakness is starting pitching, so they haven't really done anything yet.
Schwarber would have been great as a DH for the Jays, but he's injured and might not play until September.
He's a streaky guy, with extreme slugging splits, so who knows.

Toronto's weakness was the pen, so they did add.
Is it enough? What about Pearson?

None of the rumoured players associated with Jays for trades sound exciting to me. All seem to be rentals....Trevor Story, Yan Gomes, few relievers. Just meh....I guess nothing is going to excite me unless the player they are getting back has more years of control. Berrios is a good target, but seem like they would have to pay a high price, not sure if it's worth it for 1.5 years of control.

Not interested in Berrios at sky high price. Where did you hear Story to Jays rumours? That is exciting.

"Ingredients: Hand-Tossed Dough, Romano Cheese, Tomato Saucedo... Heat Until Warm in the Bullpen... Serve w/ Ice-Cold Bottle of Budzinski"

Amazing.

Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
"Berríos trade likely, sources tell @TheAthletic. Blue Jays appear leading option."


Jayson Stark earlier today mentioned the Jays were 'willing to discuss' Pearson in a trade for Berrios, so that might be one part of the deal if it were to happen.

"Not interested in Berrios at sky high price. Where did you hear Story to Jays rumours? That is exciting."

It's on Twitter...few of the Jays writers like Wilner, Stoeten commenting on it, I guess Joel Sherman is one of the first ones to float the rumour.

Of course its entirely dependent on the price, but I think a trade for Berrios is exactly the kind of deal the team should be doing right now. They need pitching assets and this woould let them play for this year and next.

Done deal according to Rosenthal. Berrios to the Jays. Morosi mentioned SWR being in the deal, but no other names as of yet.

The trade talk is fun. I remember AA saying "if you hear about it then it is not happening". That was probably just AA. He liked to do deals that were a big surprise.

It's going to take Pearson two years to build up to throwing 200IP best case scenario...might just be a reliever during the Jays contention window, so Jays might be willing to move him.

Sounds like Martin and SWR.

Berrios for SWR and Martin...pretty high price...hope we are getting a reliever back in the deal as well.

That's too much, in my opinion. I didn't love the Hand move, but i really don't like this.

That's an awful trade IMO unless the Jays are getting more back. 2 top-100 prospects for a good but not great starter with 1+ year left on his deal? Don't get it.

Wow, this looks like a big time overpayment by Atkins.

I probably should be unhappy about the trade. But for some reason I’m not. Berrios is a good add, SWR was always somewhat of a risky prospect, and Martin has been a bit of a disappointment so far — factoring in overall offense and defense — and the Jays have a lot of good infield prospects.

I'm a fan IF they resign Ray and Berrios long term. Otherwise...not a good trade.

"'This price (two top 100 prospects: one top 50 guy, one 51-100) is way too close to the price for 1.5 years of Turner and a rental Scherzer, for me. 1.5 years of Berrios isn't close to as valuable as Turner/Scherzer in my mind."

That's from Kiley McDaniel and it's entirely accurate. Not to mention Martin is a top 20 prospect and Gray is like 30-50.

I do not like this at all.

If Berrios had a 3+ year contract, I'd get it but you're getting a good but not ace pitcher for a year and a half.

Happy with the concept of the move, confused why the Jays are seemingly paying more than other teams have been doing this trade season.

The Jays got much less for 1.5 years of Stroman.

I don't think it is reasonable to argue against Thomas' post of Kiley McDaniel's tweet. Sounds like an overpay if they can't resign him. Especially compared to Dodgers price paid for Scherzer and Turner.

An extension for Berrios is the only thing that would make this deal look better, and even then it would still be too much to give up. Shocked that Atkins did this. I'm fine with adding Berrios since he's controllable through next season as well, but the cost was way higher than it should have been.

Basically I'm where 92-93 is at. One possible explanation is that the Jays have soured on Martin?

To add to 92-93's post, the Stroman trade was considered an overpay by the Mets by some at the time (SWR and Kay). And SWR wasn't the prospect then that he is now.

When I read SWR, I thought it was steep, and I wasn't sure how i felt, but I figured that was what needed to secure Berrios in a competitive market.

When i read Martin was included, i was stunned.

Alternatively, it's not a terrible deal if they think SWR and Martin will not pan out.

Not crazy about this at all. Need to free a 40 roster spot. Maybe a starter has to move to the pen.

From Dany Hayes - The Athletic beatwriter for the Twins.

As we wrote the other night, #MNTwins aren't targeting Alex Manoah or Nate Pearson in talks. They'd rather focus on a group of position players on Toronto's Double A club.
Jordan Groshans as lead piece would be interesting.

So, it seems like the Jays preferred Groshans over Martin?

One thing I will say in favour of this, is that Berrios, to date, has been highly consistent and shown an ability to stay on the field and deliver innings. There's some real value to that over and above the rate stats.

Don’t underestimate how much payroll issues factor into this decision. The Jays badly needed pitching to compete. The FO does not like giving out lengthy/expensive contracts to FA pitchers. This move is about competing this year and next year (which has a ton of value in maintaining fan interest, preserving player motivation, and attracting FAs), limiting financial risk, and allowing flexibility for moves in upcoming seasons.

Yeah seems like an overpay. But at least he has one more year of control. Hope there isn’t a strike next year.

Also: with Ryu and Springer’s respective ages, this year and next year are prime years to compete hard for the postseason. Those two players may not be especially effective by 2023. Berrios fits that timeline.

Agree with greenfrog. Getting Ryu (Korean) and Springer was good. Springer was hoping for the Mets who chose J McCann. This left the Jays and X teams.

The bidding war for FA SPs this off season will we very risky to our financial flexibility.

I guess I’m in the minority. I think this is classic bird in hand vs two in the bush. We’ve seen umpteen good prospects not pan out. Most fans (here and otherwise) over value their own prospects. This may look like a steaming pile of poo in 5 years but I think it’s not an unreasonable risk for a good pitcher who Walker probably thinks can be a great pitcher. 1.75 thumbs up from me.

Both Martin and SWR have been slightly disappointing this season. Martin has played ok but has not shown much power. He seems to be turning into a decent center fielder but Springer would block his progress.

SWR has had a rocky 2021 which some have blamed on his Olympics secondment. He also needs to have all his pitches working.

It is a steep price to pay but competition was tough and they desperately needed starting pitching for this year and next. The Twins had them in a tough spot and they made them pay.

That is a pretty steep price for a #2 starter.
SWR is a perfectly reasonable lead in the trade. Him and someone around the same-ish would be a mild overpay. Martin.... was a surprise.

I mana I don't think Martin is quite the elite prospect we thought he was but still an overpay. If Jays make playoffs and have good runs for next two years, it's worth it. Anyway, I think they gave up too much hut still excited to see them go for it. Ryu, Ray, and Berrios is a very good top 3

I do think that part of the issue may be an industry wide view of Martin as falling stock. Given the small sample size of his professional experience, I'm not suggesting that that is a coherent view of Marin. But there has been a lot of unflattering buzz coming from his Future's Game cameo and his lack of power to date in AA.

It really depends if we think SWR and Martin were in fall or not. And both have underperformed this year. SWR has had a poor year and Martin has shown little or no power. (despite good OBP skills) If one of those 2 assets was close to cratering then I'm fine with this trade because then it becomes a 1-1 and that's better.

On our pitching side I still think Pearson is better than SWR. But SWR was likely our second highest pitching prospect and I don't really know who is third. On the batting side I'd rather have Kirk, Moreno, Orelvis over Martin. Groshans is a tougher call but I probably Like Groshans slightly more right now.

Anyway mixed feelings on the trade, hope it works out. (more next year than this with regard to Barrios)

As Gerry alludes to, though, current evaluations are more important than where they were at the beginning of the season. Also, internal evals are more important than public lists. So maybe there's a significant discrepancy between where they were and where they are now. That's my glass-half-full side.

This one isn't making me want Atkins lose his trading privileges like the Happ and Stroman deals did, but my eyes have narrowed with a bit of skepticism.

Fabgraphs moved Martin down to #59 on their list. I think Jays almost need to make another move now. Yan Gomes would be fine but I mean a starting 3Bman or upgrade in OF.

Atkins pulls an A. Anthropolous. Hopefully it energizes the team. No question they look better for this year and next. I'm excited to see Berrios in a Blue Jay uni.

If the Jays soured on both prospects and wanted to sell high, then I have no issues with that, but I have a hard time believing that they couldn't have done better than Berrios in a trade involving those two. It's not so much about Martin and SWR as much as it is not getting enough back. If it was Berrios and someone else, then you're getting closer to value.

I mean, what's done is done, so no point harping on it. Berrios improves the rotation not only the next two months, but more importantly next season when it was looking like just Ryu being a lock. Now there is a starting point of Ryu and Berrios. If they bring Ray back, then that's a solid top 3. They really need to extend Berrios prior to the start of 2022, though.

Enough on the prospect price of things for me, though - Berrios definitely improves the rotation for the rest of the year and next.

Since they definitely paid well for two playoff runs as opposed to one, how about juicing up 3B with Bryant? I'm not sure if Story is the best fit at the moment, but hey. Gomes at C wouldn't be the worst idea, either.

Don't empty the farm, but if there are reasonable rentals, why not?

That is flat out fantastic.


Martin has not impressed at all in his first taste of pros, doesn't look like he'll stick at a premium defensive position, isnt that young and, and doesn't even have the huge tools to dream on. Easily the guy with the biggest hype-to-performance ratio in the system - I.e. the right guy to move.


SWR i like a ton and think he'll be really good, but he's a couple years away and isnt a lock, and you have to give up something good to get something good.



Well done Messrs. Shapiro & Atkins.

Does Berrios get admission into the Barrio? Does he get to wear the jacket if he wins?

Note that the Jays will get a draft pick for Berrios after 2022 (if he’s QO-worthy).

Berrios’s modest salary should free up some cash to spend on other areas of need in the off-season.

If the Jays soured on both prospects and wanted to sell high, then I have no issues with that, but I have a hard time believing that they couldn't have done better than Berrios in a trade involving those two. It's not so much about Martin and SWR as much as it is not getting enough back. If it was Berrios and someone else, then you're getting closer to value.

Agreed. If Martin's stock was falling, which it may have been, the buzz online from baseball insiders is that this was a very steep price to pay. So, if his stock was falling, it doesn't seems to have fallen that much to warrant the price paid for Berrios. Plus, there's a very reasonable point of view that it makes sense not to trade Martin if his stock was falling, given that one year ago he was thought of as the best bat in the 2020 draft.

The more I think about this, the more this reminds me a lot of the Dickey trade, in which paying one of the two prospects may have been reasonable, but including them both seems like an overpayment.

Tyler Chatwood has been DFA'd to make room for Berrios.

They did go all out on pitching during the draft.

Martin is not a great defender, his arm is very limited.
As a  shortstop, I prefer Orelvis Martinez.
Still, SWR + Hiraldo should have been enough.
But, unlike Martin, Hiraldo has a good arm and could move to third if Groshans stalls.
Still got Lopez and Taylor as potential UT guys.
I wouldn't mind Smith being given a shot at 3B.

Was Berrios the best starter available? Scherzer could veto any move.

Did the Jays overpay or is it that players with non-trade rights don't bring as much when moved?

What could round up the team now is a platoon DH who can sit against lefties.

Tyler Chatwood has been DFA'd to make room for Berrios. I was on the fence previously, but I am now convinced. Excellent trade for the Jays.

Berrios price was probably influenced by what the dodgers paid for Scherzer & Turner - the dodgers gave up 2 prospects in Ruiz and Gray who currently are having better seasons and more valued than Martin & Richardson - If the Jays get Story, then it will be interesting to evaluate what the Dodgers gave up for a Scherzer rental and 1 plus year of Turner vs what the Jays gave up for 1 plus year of Berrios and a rental of Story - also depends whom you like better, I'm weary of Story's bat away from Coors.

It should also be noted that the FO has been pretty astute in terms of trading prospects who may have been overrated (Olivares, Stevenson, Leone, Greene, Woodman).

The BA writeup of the trade is worth a read. It provides a good summary of the strengths and weaknesses of Martin and SWR as prospects. It’s also a reminder that Berrios isn’t just another decent SP. He’s very good and in the midst of his best season yet.

Combined Rest of Season Projections (ZIPS, Steamer, THE BAT)


Berrios 6.1ip/gm, 3.91era, 3.86fip
Ryu 5.8ip/gm, 3.86era, 3.87fip
Manoah 5.8ip/gm, 3.98era, 3.93fip
Ray 5.6ip/gm, 4.01era, 3.97fip

That's a sweet front 4 now, and Berrios is arguably the best of them.

Matz 5.1ip/gm, 4.49era, 4.39fip
Stripling 4.6ip/gm, 4.59era, 4.50fip

still don't like these guys but a #5 guy is a #5 guy. Not sure which i put into the pen - stripling probably makes the most sense and has more experience there, but then again I could really see Matz' stuff playing up bigtime in the pen and him turning into a pretty terrifying lefty RP.

Chatwood for Berrios should please the clubhouse.

Now go get Story or Bryant to play 3B.

I agree with Thomas. I like Berrios, but when you adjust for strength of schedule, his numbers just aren't that great.  He's their fourth best starter behind Ryu, Ray and Manoah right now.  Granted that Manoah is a rookie and Ray hasn't been consistent.  He has been durable, and if you can sign him for an appropriate contract long-term, he will have significant value beyond 2022. 

Matz seems to need a dozen pitch to settle down lately.
Still, I think they sorta go with a 6-man rotation with Berrios and Ray on regular rest, Ryu get an extra day.
The other guys shuffle around as needed. They needed to limit Manoah's innings.

UO, the projections don't account for strength of schedule differences between the ALE and the ALC.  Those differences are very large.

Berrios last 5yrs:

#10 IP
#18 fWAR
#19 ra9WAR

The last guy who had strength of schedule concern was Happ signed back from the Pirates and he turned out much better than expected.

Last 5yrs

Ryu (34): 100gs, 5.7ip/gs, 67era-, 85fip-, 83xfip-, 3.5fwar/32, 5.3ra9war/32
Berrios (27): 121gs, 6.0ip/gs, 85era-, 88fip-, 94xfip-, 3.6fwar/32, 3.8ra9war/32
Ray (29): 116gs, 5.4ip/gs, 87era-, 100fip-, 88xfip-2.2fwar/32, 3.6ra9war/32

"The last guy who had strength of schedule concern was Happ signed back from the Pirates and he turned out much better than expected."

i'd say the last guy was.....Ryu.

Ryu was pitching against some good team. Happ had only faced bad teams and lineups loaded with left bats.

The beginning of the season I was higher on Martin than Groshans, but as the season went on, Groshans has looked better. I am glad they kept Groshans if it was a choice between Martin and Groshans.

So what's our pen now?

CL Hand
RSU Romano
LSU Mayza (Matz?)
RMR Cimber
LMR Saucedo
MR Richards
MR Stripling/Matz
(MR Pearson?)

Starting to look like a bullpen now.

One thing we don't know is the Jays payroll parameters for next year. Remember american ballparks are open for full stadiums now. Jays are capped at 15k. Who knows how long the Jays will be capped for home games which could very much cut into their payroll for next year and beyond. Thus having Berrios and his cost control could make a big difference next year as compared to signing a FA starter. And likely with the current Jays team they needed to sign 2 FA (a stud and at least a number 4)

This could give them more flexibility for next year.

Looking through Berrios' starts against AL-East and they seem fine. Like, in 2019, last full season with full schedule, he pitched 6 games against the East, had a 3.79 ERA (No Yankees, but shut out Jays). He's not an elite pitcher for sure, but he's also a very good starter. I would have him pretty clearly as our #2 after Ryu.

Everybody wants to get the best players and give up nothing.

This is a good trade for a team that wants to go to the playoffs for the next couple of years.

fWAR, bWAR, ERA and so on all don't adjust for strength of schedule.  The ALC has been chronically weak. In his career, Berrios has made 8 starts against the Orioles, he's 6-0 with a 2.94 ERA.  He has made 6 starts against the Red Sox and he's 0-5 with a 4.93 ERA.  He has made 3 starts against the Yankees, he's 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA.  He's made 4 starts against the Rays and he's 0-2 with a 7.15 ERA.  He's made 3 starts against your Toronto Blue Jays and he's 2-0 with a 0.46 ERA (and that may have a lot to do with the overpay).   Overall, he's 36-13 against teams below .500 and 19-30 with an ERA of 4.67 against teams better than .500.  My expected ERA for him in the AL East is about 4.25. 

"The beginning of the season I was higher on Martin than Groshans, but as the season went on, Groshans has looked better. I am glad they kept Groshans if it was a choice between Martin and Groshans."

I'd have had Martin as the 3rd SS in the system right now after Groshans and Orelvis.

"I'd have had Martin as the 3rd SS in the system right now after Groshans and Orelvis."

Not sure any of those 3 are SS, tbh. Though i might like Groshans chances of sticking there the most.

But Groshans and Orelvis both are younger than Martin, have outperformed him, and have more exciting toolkits imo.

Mike Green - maybe give us some examples of ALC pitchers who have seen their performance decline markedly after moving to a tougher division?

People…how about the point that we could have had Scherzer and Turner for this price if we added a lower level player as well? Is that not a hugely better option?

With vaccination rates being much lower in the US, I wouldn't be too concerned.

Ryu,
Berrios,
Manoah,
Stripling,
Hatch,
Pearson,
Kay,

Maybe just one starter to replace Ray.

Unloading SWR doesn't help long term.
Might have to wait for Hoglund/Carter to reach if nobody picks it up.

Not an option because Scherzer wanted to go to a team with a near 100% odds of making the playoffs.

The Twins are shopping Josh Donaldson - wonder how much of his contract they might eat - would not be surprised if he ends up in Atlanta.

This kind of thinking doesn't work because we don't anything. Maybe Nats don't like Martin. Maybe Scherzer didn't want Toronto, etc... Also, I think Ruiz easily the best prospect traded.

One hour and 15 mins to go. What are your predictions? Looks like all teams trying to take advantage of a Seller’s market. Rumoured to be on the move:

Trevor Story
Josh Donaldson
Byron Buxton
Javier Baez

Beating the weak teams is really important.
He's a dependable guy who doesn't get pulled in the second inning, thus saving the bullpen.

Berrios is a very good SP. No question about that. Even though I think the Jays gave up too much, it's clearly a significant upgrade to the rotation for the rest of this season and 2022. The Jays are getting him at age 27 (for 2 months) and then age 28 next season. I think assuming good health he provides a huge boost to the rotation.

Price for Kimbrel was very high. Happy Jays didn't pay it and surprised White Sox with already top bullpen.

Kenta Maeda,
Michael Fulmer,
Raisel Iglesias,
Luke Voit,
Kyle Gibson,
Kris Bryant,
Yan Gomes.

Next year is the more important year in terms of odds to make the postseason. Scherzer wouldn’t have helped with that.

White Sox are thinking “how do we beat LAD/Padres”

Jays could have sent Biggio and Borucki or some other reliever for a better offer.

I like Trevor Story because of his speed and solid defence. Not sold on Bo’s defence in tight playoff games.

Yan Gomes going to the A's.

Fangraphs on Martin:

After striking out just twice in 69 plate appearances during Vanderbilt’s shortened 2020 season, Martin has racked up a 21.2% strikeout rate this year, while some feel his propensity for drawing walks (14.8%) also frequently puts him into bad counts he can’t fight his way out of. Data-minded evaluators also point to a loss of power, and while a dip would be expected during a transition from metal to wood bats, Martin’s exit velocities are down a whopping 8 mph from his college days. The questions surrounding Martin’s defense also haven’t been answered, and if anything, they’ve become more pronounced. Martin has split time between shortstop and center field for the Fisher Cats, and scouts have not been impressed with him at either position. He’s been error prone on the dirt, with 10 miscues in just 26 games, while in the outfield, his arm is below average and merely average speed limits his range in center.

Yeah, think Martin probably ends up at 2B. Still could be a very good player there but does diminish his stock.

Gut reaction is that it's an overpay on paper just going by prospect rankings, but these two names in particular I think have definite red flags on them, especially Martin. I'm a huge Berrios fan and I think he might even have potential for another gear in him. Thumbs up.

That fangraphs blurb fits perfectly with my scouting of his statline. Nice to see that confirmed by the scouts' eye tests. They don't seem to be seeing any excuses or encouraging explanations for his numbers.

I don't mind that the players traded were the lowest upside guys we have. Moreno, Pearson, Kirk, Groshans and Orelvis are more risky but also with greater upside. Would I have been happier if they included Kevin Smith instead of Martin or SWR? Sure but I'm not confident my evaluation is right. Obviously I'd rather if they could have gotten away with Hiraldo or someone like that but I guess it wasn't going to work.

The ususal saying with trades is whoever got the better play wins. I.e., quality trumps quantity. Also, there are multiple ways of turning minor league prospects in to major league value. One way is developing them. The other way is trading them for ML talent.

I'm not sure if it was an overpay or not, but you have to appreciate trades that make us better both this year and next. And unless you are very confident that SWR is better than Berrios next year, you have to like this deal at least a little.

come on Mssrs Shapiro & Atkins get me some Josh Donaldson.

Lol if they wanted Donaldson they could have had him as a throw in here. Twins likely want to get rid of that contract. Jays are never taking Donaldson again, purely because of the clubhouse.

Donaldson was part of the clubhouse that got us to back to back playoffs? is that bad?

The White Sox with that stacked BP, Red Sox with Sale back, Houston & TB - very tough to see the Jays winning a series - making the playoffs will satiate the season ticket holders and corporate sponsors.

Crazy trade deadline so far for MLB...I hope this becomes the norm.

Yes, there is a question about whether he is "very good".  I think that he's good and durable.  That will help the club a lot over the season.  In the post-season, the quality becomes more important and on that, I'm much less excited than most here.
I think the idea with Berrios is to at least take a decent shot at the post-season, this year and next, in any form. With "good and durable", hopefully it lets our bullpen rest a lot more, making them more effective when called upon. That in itself could be a huge boost. Plus the, Chatwood->Matz/Stripling upgrade. Maybe Matz/Stripling become tandem starters and part-time relievers? (had to throw that in for you, Mike :-)
As for post-season quality, Ryu / Ray / Berrios / Manoah aren't on the same level as the Dodgers, obviously - but maybe, with the 4th best offense, it's enough to get out of the AL, where most of the teams have some rotation weaknesses? Ryu would probably be the wild-card starter (assuming such a thing happens), then Ray / Berrios / Manoah and hopefully, with off-days, Ryu is ready for game 4.

To me, assuming no injuries, this will hopefully put an end to "bullpen starts", which have really hurt us in two ways - when you run 4-6 guys out there, you'll for sure find the guy who doesn't have it that day, and the next day, most of the bullpen is tired.

His skill on field was. His clubhouse presence not so much. Between Pompey and Hendricks I have more than enough reason to never want him on this team again. Just pure toxicity and no room for him on a club where they want Vlad, Bo and others to lead.

Jays getting Soria.

"Between Pompey and Hendricks I have more than enough reason to never want him on this team again."

I recall there was a beef related to Pompey, but what were you referencing with Hendriks here? I simply don't remember.

Hmm you'd think they have enough solid relievers now. Don't see the point of getting another solid one unless they just got him for nothing I guess. Which I doubt they did.

I'm not sure if it was ever explained, but I remember that pretty much the first pitch that Liam Hendricks threw as an Athletic against the Blue Jays went square into the middle of JD's back.

https://www.nbcsports.com/chicago/white-sox/white-sox-liam-hendriks-no-fan-ex-teammate-josh-donaldson

There you go. I've read/heard enough mutterings about how awful a person Josh is. I admire him as a baseball player but I don't want him on a team I cheer for.

I love how thin the sourcing is for these last minute moves. /s

That said a Soria rumor means they're done. Two fun months ahead.

Yes, there is a question about whether he is "very good". I think that he's good and durable.

He's not an ace, but he's a durable 3-4 WAR SP. "Good" or "very good" is up to your definition. He's also young enough to still have some upside left.

Man, I think the Rockies are pretty clearly the worst org. in baseball right now and this deadline shows why. It was a solid seller's market and Story and Gray both free agents. Neither was moved. They are in a division with 2 powerhouse teams and could have moved Marquez for a ransom to try to build a strong future where they can compete but nope, they're just going to muddle along. What a mess.

A terrible deadline. Which seems to be a pattern with this front office.

Berrios and Hand were both overpays relative to other deals; obviously we don't know the return for Soria, but I was surprised to see two PTBNL in the deal.

Overpaid relative to the market when we weren't even in a clear buyer's position.

We get two more months of meaningful baseball. It was a good day.

This deadline makes me think that the Jays payroll is more constrained then we'd like. I think a big part of the Berrios value is saving some money for next year as compared to being forced to go into a 20-25 million dollar starting pitcher with term.

I disagree that this was a buyer's market (see what the Dodgers gave up, see what the White Sox gave up for Kimbrel), or that they overpaid, particularly for Hand.

It was pretty clearly a seller's market. Lots of top prospects went.

In 2008 the Jays finished 4th with 86 wins and a payroll of 51 million.

That makes me think someone at Baseball Almanac badly needs to do some remedial math. The 2008 team was paying Burnett $13.2 million, Thomas $12.6 million (they may have released him, they still had to pay him), Ryan $12 million, Rolen $11.6 million, Halladay $10 million. That's about $60 million already and we've not yet begun to count Wells, Overbay, Rios, Eckstein, and Zaun who are close to another $20 million. The other half of the roster was quite a bit cheaper. It's still a lot of guys.

So...
Hand replaces Adams.
Saucedo's number changes to 54.
Berrios replaces Chatwood.
Soria is in and somebody will soon get DFAed.
My pick would be Davis.

I'm thinking about the active roster! My best guess:

Manoah's return bumps Hatch.
Hand will replace Snead.
Berrios will replace Thornton.
Soria will replace Saucedo.
Dickerson (when he gets here) will replace Valera.

I will be presently surprised if the Jays make the playoffs.

There is no doubt that signing free agents is difficult.
It could be extremely difficult this winter after the Yankees and Red Sox are allowed to go over the luxury tax again.
Manoah pitching well has probably a lot to do with the willingness to trade SWR.
It's not a question of being cheap.
The Jays might have to offer an extra year or more to get top talents.
The Phillies, for example, have spent "crazy money" on top talent and have not reach the playoffs since 2010.

Thornton and Snead are down for sure.
They could send Hatch down until the rosters expend if they want him to keep starting.
Or they could send Saucedo down, since Hand is a lefty.
Saucedo has been very Britton like and we can only hope Hand produces numbers as good.
If Hatch is down, he can be called to start on a doubleheader as the 27th man.

You're forgetting one thing -- your assment might be used an example. Make a bet that this will be bad. Throw down some stakes.

I won't because like the process of what the FO has done. Will I be happy with the outcome? you never know (say it as fast as you can). If it works I'm happy, if it doesn't I accept that given the landscape the front office has the best map.

I will be presently surprised if the Jays make the playoffs.

I will be utterly shocked if this year's team makes the playoffs. The 2015 team wasn't as far back as this year's group, and the 2015 team went on the hottest run in franchise history to win the division. You can't expect that, you can't count on that. What they've done this week is more about 2022, and part of what they're doing for 2022 is making an effort in 2021.

Yeah this deadline is 2 things.

Next year: Berrios, Cimber, Richards. This puts us in better spot for 2022. It means that the Jays won't be forced to dive into the SP offseason stuff. Plus like Magpie said the learning experience from this year for the current players.

This year: Hand, Soria. Just some small moves to patch up the bullpen.

This helps them to make the wild card sure, but its still a long process to get to that and the team will have to play better.

Very tough job for the FO to acquire players and stay within the budget.

I feel strongly that we are still rebuilding and also have stiff payroll parameters which are handled with payroll flexibility.

Drafting talent is taking a guy when your turn comes up. For example with the 11th pick in the 2019 draft the Jays chose Alek Manoah. In the Jays rotation now. Seemed to move through the minors faster than Stroman. Could be as good as Stroman. Hope so.

With the 5th pick in the 2020 draft the Jays chose A Martin. Martin and Torkelson received the highest signing bonuses. Not sure who was #1.

In 2018 pick #12 is J Groshans who signed for $800,000 underslot.

2nd 2016 round Bo signed for $121,400 overslot.

4th 2017 round K Smith signed for slot.

Very hard to figure out what the plan is. Seems like Bo is looking the best. That is short selling him because he is an All Star.

For me, in addition to vladdy/Bo, we have 4 kids who have leapt forward to elite prospect type performance - Kirk Manoah Moreno Orelvis. We didn't touch any of them.

SWR was alongside Nate imo in the battle for #5. Both with elite track records that have stumbled lately. Hate to lose SWR but I get it.

Martin was imo in the group after that with guys like Groshans and Hiraldo who are very talented or at least hyped as much but haven't performed yet. These guys were the best guys to use as trade bait imo.

the learning experience from this year for the current players.

It's not just the learning experience - it's an expression of faith. It tells the players on the roster that the front office believes in them, and is willing to make moves on their behalf. This in turn allows the players to believe in the front office, that the front office will have their backs when the time comes, even if it doesn't come this year. Maybe it shouldn't matter, but it does. I think we all remember how the Jays played after Anothopoulos did nothing at the deadline in 2014. They stunk. Us older fellows remember how they simply threw in the towel back in 1995.

We're only 4.5gms back guys.

I think Colorado looks awful here. I’m a perfect world the Jays would have given up this package or Pearson instead of SWR for German Marquez.

You guys are hilarious sometimes. Everyone clamouring for a big move, we make one at market price, and everyone’s annoyed.

Trades cost a lot. Free agents cost a lot. We live in the ALE. This is what the big boys do, and props to management for doing what they said they’d do.

Tbh, I’m outta town and only checked in here to see ugly eating crow. You guys are missing your chance!

We're only 4.5gms back guys.

Alas, I think the Wild Card has lost some of its allure for me! It used to mean you made the playoffs. Now it means you've got a chance to make the playoffs. Now it feels like a consolation prize for losers.

OK, it's better than nothing. But nothing is a low bar!

I also don't understand the hate with the deal. It does look like a slight overpay for Berrios but we don't know what Jays internal metrics say about them. As for people losing their mind over dealing Riley Adams for Brad Hand, Adams is our #5 catcher and is essentially a spare part. There's a small % chance he turns into Yan Gomes and 'haunts' us but that's why teams trade for 40FV prospects in the first place. Adams is way more likely end up to be similar to Reese McGuire or Robinzon Diaz or Guillermo Quiroz in long term value than Yan Gomes, and all those guys were as highly rated if not more so than Adams. The most likely outcome for these mid-level prospects is a few cups of coffee at the big leagues. If they reach their 90th percentile projection and become the next Yan Gomes good for them I am happy they proved the evaluators wrong.

I also don't understand the hate with the deal.

It comes with the territory. Equally loud voices would have been raised if he had made no deals. Being a major league GM always means that you're damned if you do and you're damned if you don't. The one thing to remember is that when you start listening to the people in the stands, it's not long before you're sitting beside them.

But there's always a special hue and cry when prospects are sent out. Prospects are always special because they haven't yet had the opportunity to prove that they're not actually going to be what you're still hoping they can be. My ears are still ringing from Cal Stevenson, and they'd barely recovered from Franklin Barreto...

"That makes me think someone at Baseball Almanac badly needs to do some remedial math."

No, Magpie, it was my faulty memory. The Yankees and Rays numbers were right but the Jays were at 98 million for payroll in 2008. 2009 was down to 80 million and 2010 was down even further to 62 million as Ricciardi was obviously told to cut costs.

A general manager's life in any sport is not easy. They get crapped on if they do nothing, they get crapped on if they don't do enough, and they get crapped on if they do something big that seems like an overpayment. I am shocked by the trade but management got multiple eyes on these guys every time they're on the field so I trust they don't think SWR or Martin will be superstars ,merely having ceilings of being good players. Time will tell but thumbs up for doing something.

I'm saying they are bad moves. What stakes do any of us have here for the opinions we're giving?

Obviously, it could work out; but the likelihood is that it doesn't, and the process here is poor. I don't think it's hard to say that what the Yankees and the Dodgers pulled off with the Gallo and Turner/Scherzer trades is a lot better than what the Jays did. I don't think giving up a decent prospect for a very marginal bullpen upgrade makes sense.

somebody will soon get DFAed. My pick would be Davis.

Not just your pick! And Snead is back in AAA, Hand is active.

" Hand is active."

Don't mention McGuire, don't mention McGuire...

I'm saying they are bad moves.

I think they're reasonable moves. No one knows, and no one will know for a while, if they were good or bad. I'd rather have had Max Scherzer, but he'd made it pretty clear that it was NL West or bust. The second best starter on the market seems a reasonable fallback. And as far as I'm concerned, they got Brad Hand for a bag of baseballs, so I can't complain about that whatever he does.

What stakes do any of us have here for the opinions we're giving?

Um ... this is sports. If you pull out the dollars there are no actual stakes for anyone that aren't essentially illusory. But in my mind if there is one single value to sports as spectacle (rather than as a endeavor to play) it's that it creates interesting stories that you can follow and enjoy in its juicy narrative details and for which you have a rooting interest in following. And Berrios certainly provides that. I know that's not the answer you wanted but stakes in sports seems like a loaded term when you consider what's going on with the environment and the pandemic especially in countries with few resources. If you're looking for stakes -- that's where they are -- no illusion required.

Even Keith Law who is higher on Martin than most called it a reasonable trade considering the major questions for both Martin and SWR.

We're only 4.5gms back guys.

Alternatively, the Blue Jays only have approximately a 25% chance of making a play-in game in order to make the playoffs.

I don't think giving up a decent prospect for a very marginal bullpen upgrade makes sense.

If you think Riley Adams is a decent prospect, I have good news for you: The Jays have over 30 guys that are better prospects than him.

I saw that Kasi, but I can't square that with this comment "Bérrios gives them innings and above-average run prevention, good enough to be their No. 3." and the fact Law ranked Martin as the 12th best prospect in baseball this very month.

If Law thinks the cost of a year and a half of "innings and above-average run prevention" is the 12th best prospect in baseball, as well as SWR, I'm not sure what a good #2 or #! would fetch.

Not sure but I think many people underrate Berrios. He's not really a number 3. By stats over the last 3-4 years he's most like a 1b. Realistically for us he's a 2 which is fine. We have 3 number 2s now with Ryu, Ray and Berrios.

I beg the people complaining about this to realistically project out what they think the middle road case for the future value of these two prospects and compare it to Berrios.

As for the big move, I’m down with it. The cost definitely feels high, but it really does improve the outlook for 2022. Without Berrios the Jays would be in a position of needing to sign 2 high-end starting pitchers. 1 is easy, Robbie Ray, but 2 is a real challenge, and costs a draft pick that could easily be a guy as good as SWR.

Underrated aspect of Berrios courtesy of Ian Hunter: since 2017 he is the AL leader in innings pitched (723).

"Alternatively, the Blue Jays only have approximately a 25% chance of making a play-in game in order to make the playoffs."

That depends on how good you think this team. For me they are now better than the teams they're chasing.

I don't mind Berrios at all (provided there isn't a strike next year). We absolutely needed to have a strong pitcher signed for next year to bolster this team. Hopefully we can resign Ray but at least the offseason now allows the team to have more flexibility, which I think will help. (aka it makes another signing like Semien more possible when you don't have to spend 20-25 million for a starting pitcher)

Don't mention McGuire, don't mention McGuire...
This is the second mention of some kind of Hand-McGuire connection / meme. Can someone explain? I'm at a total loss.

You do remember what McGuire got in trouble for last spring training? It did involve a hand. (not this Hand)

Oh, ok.. Sheesh, people are still thinking about that?

You mean those jokes I made about McGuire holding his own fell on deaf ears?

Not sure but I think many people underrate Berrios. He's not really a number 3. By stats over the last 3-4 years he's most like a 1b. Realistically for us he's a 2 which is fine. We have 3 number 2s now with Ryu, Ray and Berrios.

I get that you might think people, including Law, underrate Berrios. However, I read Law's article, and I don't understand how he can think a) Berrios gives the Jays "innings and above-average run prevention, good enough to be their No. 3"; b) Martin is the 12th best prospect in baseball and c) Martin and SWR, who is also a Top 100 prospect in Law's rankings, is a fair price for 1.5 years of Berrios.

Those three thoughts don't sit together comfortably to me.

If you think Riley Adams is a decent prospect, I have good news for you: The Jays have over 30 guys that are better prospects than him.

That's a pretty aggressive take when he was ranked 20th by FG and Keith Law pre-season, was 17th on the Jays list at MLB and just slid in at 14th on the Nationals list. I'm not the one out in left field on this.

I was responding to christaylor's suggestion that my opinions are somehow suspect because I didn't have anything riding on them.

So while I'm with you on the actual utility of sports, I think he was talking about the stakes we have in putting our opinions out on this board.

It is not that hard. Down weight your prior that any given prospect will do anything.

Law explains his reasoning himself at the end of the piece: "That’s an everyday player with strong OBP skills and a small chance for  some power, and a potentially above-average reliever with a small chance to start. For a year and a half of Bérrios, that sounds about right, even if these two prospects are more famous than their skills merit right now."

P.s. Keith law sucks

Much as I love prospects, playing in the major leagues is hard and many flame out. Just from a few years ago Anthony Alford, Logan Warmoth, Richard Urena and Ryan Borucki were top ten prospects. Now all of them have, or could have, major league time so they are not duds but we had high hopes for all of them back three or four years ago.

Trading prospects is risky but if they make it there is a significant financial payoff. But only if they produce plenty of value. If Austin Martin turns into a utility guy and SWR into a middle inning reliever then the Jays wont have given up much value. But if they turn into 3 or 4 WAR players then you have given up a lot of value.

I used to be more concerned over trading prospects but I am less concerned now, knowing that many don't make it to be a full time player.

I assume the Jays run a range of expectations for Martin and SWR. Lets say Martin has a 20% chance to be a 4 WAR player, a 40% chance to be a 1 WAR player and a 40% chance of him being of no value. That's a 1.2 WAR player on average. Thats worth say $6M a year for his first three years. Now lets assume SWR is worth a little less. To make the Math easier lets say he is worth $4M per year. That's $10M per year for the pair and $30M over three years (with more value in the arb years but thats further away and even more uncertain).

Berrios is approx. a 4 WAR pitcher. The Jays get 1.3 this year and 4 next for a 5.3 total. But they have to pay him $2M this year and say $12M next. Thats roughly $32M of value for $12M, a surplus value of $20M. So they give up $30M ($10M times three years) to get $20M. But Berrios could get them to the playoffs and could help in other ways, such as not forcing them to overpay on free agents next year. I am sure there are complex calculations going on before you get to the gut decision.

Anyway, back to the point, on average its unlikely that both Martin and SWR turn into very valuable players for Minnesota.

In a rosy scenario for the two prospects we gave 1 of them turns into a berrrios level player and one of them into a replacement player.

That's the rosy scenario.

Dome was electric tonight. I’ll be there again tomorrow when Berrios will be on the Jumbotron. I still have goosebumps from when Price showed up on the Jumbrotron live, heard the applause, looked shock, then smiled and tipped his cap.

It is awesome to be back in the dome.

Are all ya’alll FO haters gonna own it?

Ugly? Crow?

Reminds me of what Michael (Ted Danson) said on the TV show The Good Place: “It's a rare occurrence, like... like a double rainbow, or someone on the Internet saying, ‘You know what? You've convinced me I was wrong.’”

Checking FanGraphs for a reality check Martin a 50 and falling. SWR a 50 as well. So both very highly ranked there. Baseball Trade Values has Berrios as a 42.9 in value, Martin 42.6, SWR 22.3 suggesting a big overpay.

I'm wondering if Martin's power is gone as far as the Jays are concerned. If so and he needs to move to 2B and keeps hitting like Biggio (walks #1 asset) then his value would be more like a 10 to 20 imo. That is the only way this deal makes sense to me.

I really like Berrios, he's incredibly steady. I definitely would've preferred a world where we get away with one of SWR/Martin + a couple 11-15 rank prospects, but at least we get an additional year from Berrios.

I understand some are down on Martin, but outside of his power, he has been adapting well to AA and improving each month. In July, he had a 15:10 BB:K ratio, with a .500 OBP. Considering our team's OBP is well below average, I think he would've been a great asset to our team as a future leadoff hitter.

Law explains his reasoning himself at the end of the piece: "That’s an everyday player with strong OBP skills and a small chance for some power, and a potentially above-average reliever with a small chance to start. For a year and a half of Bérrios, that sounds about right, even if these two prospects are more famous than their skills merit right now."

I get it. I've read the article, twice.

However, here are Law's 7-13 prospects from his list, which he published on July 21 (and I recognize he artificially excluded a couple of guys like Duran):
7. "Best command and control in 2020 draft class" and "could be an ace".
8. "As long as he stays behind the plate, he’s a potential MVP."
9. "Plus defender in the corners" and "he’s a strong regular with some All-Star upside."
10. "his bat is ready to rock. He’s a 30-homer, high-OBP guy who’ll be the Tigers’ cleanup hitter for a long time, wherever they decide to play him."
11. "An 80 defender in center with 65-70 raw power, but his plate discipline has always lagged behind other parts of his game..... I’m still bullish on his long-term outlook, given the power/defense combination and his age."
12. Traded with Simeon Woods-Richardson for 1.5 years of a number 3 starter (in Law's words).
13. "he still looks like a superstar in the making, with an incredible approach at the plate, power (preferably not the labrum-tearing kind), plus speed, and plus defense in center"

I have read the article. I know what Law wrote.

However, he himself rates Martin ahead of "a superstar in the making with an incredible approach at the defence" and "plus defence in centerfield."

Would you trade that, plus another 100 top prospect (even if you accept a high probability reliever outcome) for 1.5 years of someone you call a number 3 pitcher?

Personally, I'd hang up the phone. (I'm not sure I'd rate Martin ahead of that prospect, but Law did, less than two weeks ago.)

I guess the more interesting question for Keith Law then would be why he rated an "everyday player" ahead of a so-called "superstar"? (Also, the answer is probably: Corbin Carroll's shoulder injury risk.)

Not that we should put a lot of stock in the Trade Simulator/Baseball Trade Values, but the other major trades:

Yankees/Rangers: Gallo 43.4 + cash; Prospects 29.8
Dodgers/Nationals: Scherzer/Turner 79.4 (Scherzer only 12); Prospects 71.7

And for good measure: Adams 2.1; Hand 0.3

Bravo Atkins. And I do solemnly pinky swear I have never looked up any of this before.

Martin's valuation seems out of reach.

I've seen him described as a five tool prospect, which he isn't.
His valuation on MLB is Hit 65, Power 50, Run 55, Arm 50, Field 50, Overall 55.

He has a good eye and excellent bat to ball skill, so he does get on base.
He does not steal many bases. This year he stole 9  bases, but got caught 3 times.
He hasn't shown much power at all and his swing does not look like a power swing.
His arm is very questionable. The Jays only played him at short and CF.
His fielding has not been very good, he's got 10 errors for a .900 fielding percentage at short.

I'm not sure Martin was going to become a regular CF for the Jays, so it's mostly SWR that I will miss.

Looking at the rest of division.

Let's start with Baltimore.
They traded Galvis to the Phillies for Tyler Burch and Armstrong to the Ray for cash.
That seems pretty bad for a rebuilding club.
It's not like they have have superstars walking for nothing, but still,

I won't dwell on what prospects were given.

Yankees added Gallo and Rizzo, they DFAed Ryan Lamarre. Huge lineup improvement.
They added Joely Rodriguez and Andrew Heany but traded away Justin Wilson and Luis Cessa. It that an improvement? I don't know. They didn't add a starter.
They are waiting on guys to come back from the 60IL including Severino, Kluber, King, Schmidt, Peralta and O'Day.

The Rays added Cruz to DH, which is very good.
They added Chargois and Tommy Hunter but traded away Hill and Castillo.
(Hard to follow since the Rays added lots of prospects, which is their thing.) 
They are also waiting on pitchers to come back from the IL. Legions of pitchers, really.

The Red Sox aquired Kyle Schwarber to play 1B presumably. He hasn't played there since his days in the AFL (and I heard it didn't go very well.) They traded Chavis. So, right now, just an intriguing move for an outfielder on the IL. They DFAed Marcus Wilson.
On the pitching side, they added Hansel Robles and Austin Davis and DFAed Brandon Workman.
They are waiting on Sale to come back from rehab, but compared to other teams, they have been very healthy. Their rotation does not look like a set of guys you go to the playoffs with.

You cant look at what was lost. Prospects are a roll of the dice.

Imo, the Jays needed
1. A starter... done. They got the best one available. I dont think scherzer was available to come here.

2. Bullpen help. It doesnt rock my world, but the price for Kimbrel was too high.
3. An upgrade at 3rd... incomplete. This is still a top offense imo.

So, I am optimistic that it is enough. The front 4 starters are solid and the offense is one of the best in MLB.

For the prospects lost, ... we will see.

Jays made the right move, no doubt, to acquire top controllable pitcher. Is he controllable for 2+ years? No. Did the wait too long and could they have gotten him earlier for less prospects? Yes.

Davidi has an article up saying the Jays tried for Jose Ramirez and Trevor Story. They were in on Gallo. Atkins on record saying the prices suddenly went up higher than what they already had as a framework. That sounds like they could have made more trades for giving up less in the off season.

Was Berrios available earlier for less? No. The Twins intend to contend next year and needed to be blown away.
Their ask 2 weeks ago was for 2 100 prospects and 1 pre-arb player, so the price went down.
Philadephia got Kyle Gibson and Ian Kennedy, that's the other package the Jays could have gone after.
Fewer strike outs, more ground balls.

Trevor Story is not really a fit. He is having a bad year.
We're better off with a Biggio/Espinal platoon.

They sold high on Martin. To keep SWR, they would have needed to include another top prospect and another young pitcher, maybe Hatch or Pearson.
To me, the important part was keeping Moreno.

I was high on Martin and SWR pre season but both have done poorly imo. Martin hitting 28/424/383 - a line that had to scare the Jays as low power and a walk dependant obp is not a recipe for success. SWR in 45 1/3 IP has walked 5 per 9 which is terrible. His k/9 is 13.3 which is excellent but those walks... yikes. In 124 innings before this year he walked 2 more than this year, gave up 2 more HR so 2 key areas he has dropped from elite to meh or worse. Again scary stuff.

I checked their scores as a reality check. Both have these guys very highly rated but their stats now suggest otherwise. Both were set up on a fast track so they could help in 2022 or 2023 at the latest. But now I'd push that back to 2023 at the earliest unless they each fix their biggest issue (power for Martin and control for SWR).

As to the other deals, Adam's was #5 on the catching depth charts while 2 PTBNL could be anything from 2 non prospects to 2 good ones, we have no way to know right now. What is clear is we now have another solid starter and 2 more very needed bullpen pieces. Take those pen pieces plus Cimber and Richards and that is a lot added to the pen. At some point I'll need to put a list of all lost and gained. But for guts we have to hand it to Atkins - he is risking looking bad here - if Martin finds his power and SWR finds the strike zone he could look very bad as soon as next year. If the Jays make the playoffs and go deep then he could look very good. I hope he looks good come October.

I am going to be patient to see if Martin and SWR beat all the odds and become v good players.

SWR is very young for AA so I give him time to figure it out.

Martin has been improving July 15/10 bb/K ratio. Has speed. The weak arm is a negative factor. I expect power to come. Only 196 ABs so far. Another 200 ABs this year will tell a lot. May start next year in AAA or get there.

It's unclear what you think uglyone should be eating crow for, jerjapan - being one of the only other posters in here who thought the Jays should be adding, not selling?

What we gave up for Berrios makes me sad more than anything else, Martin especially. Our 1st top 5 draft pick in ages looked like a steal at the time, and I had such high hopes coming into the season.

Yeah, the lack of power production was somewhat concerning, but I hoped it would be fixable. He does have a 90 mph average EV. What I didn't realize was how poor he was defensively until I watched him a few times. Maybe I saw him at his worst, but he was Joe Panik at 3rd bad.

Anyway, I'm not enthused about what we gave up, but not overly surprised either.

Disparaging the FO for the umpteenth time, because he thought Richards and Cimber were probably going to end up the FO's big adds?

I have no idea how Martin and SWR will end up performing in the majors, but I think this trade was driven by the Jays' strong need for pitching (with limited financial risk), both in 2021 and in future seasons. Earlier this season I heard Shapiro in an interview discussing the challenges of acquiring pitching via free agency. Although he didn't say so explicitly, I got the sense that the Jays front office prefers to avoid giving out big contracts to free agent pitchers (although Ryu was somewhat of an exception to this rule and the team apparently made a substantial offer to Gerrit Cole).

I guess I can eat some crow about the FOs willingness to take some risk and make the big moves, though thats tempered by them still waiting too long to address these obvious holes.

But hey I'm one of the few here cheering the front office for this move, while most here are bitching and complaining about it, so it's a bit weird for me to have to apologize for being mean to the FO in the thread where I'm aggressively defending them.

Anyways, great trade and fantastic choice to use the one prospect in the system whose hype greatly outshone his performance.

I was wondering if this FO would trade some of their best prospects. Hoarding is great. Trading some of your best prospects is risky. This makes Magpie, I think, correct for saying that they will as for Kirk, Moreno, SWR, Martin etc... rather than your lesser prospects.

The shock to me is that it looks like Minnesota has given up on winning next year. Their window seems closed by these actions.

And I'll say that while this deal is good based on my personal valuation both of these particular prospects and the value of prospects in general, there is still a good argument that the FO overpaid relative to other trades, and that was the result of them backing themselves into a corner by waiting so long to address an obvious need.

For me though I don't care - I want to see the team succeed, not just stockpile prospects. Our system is still stacked after this trade, these two weren't at the top of it anyways, and now we have a legit solid pitching staff to support our elite offense.

Oh, and I agree with Glevin. WTF, Rockies? WTF.

I mean, this has been the best seller's market at the deadline in a while, and they don't even move the guys that they had to move in Story and Gray. That they apparently wouldn't even consider moving Marquez is just nutbar.

I mean, look at what Barrios just netted, and then compare Marquez to him as an asset. 2 years more control. Comparable performance track record. A bit better fastball. Comparable control (though I'm not in a position to comment on command). As good of a health record. More grounders. The Coors Experience. I thought Berrios was an overpay (not a murderous one, but an overpay), and I would have added Kirk to that package without even blinking (and I like Kirk).

The Rockies need to tear this thing down and start over. That they don't realize it, or don't have the guts to do it is going to resign them to a death spiral of mediocracy until either they bottom out and can't even delude themselves into thinking they have a choice, or they snap out of it and get their act together. It really looks like this is going to be a franchise that has to hit rock-bottom first before they will do the work they need to do. This is where 120 loss seasons are conceived.

The Twins are loaded with pitching in the high minors.
They'll try to use those guys and if they need to add a pitcher at the deadline, they can still flip Martin.

3. SWR in AA
4. Balazovic in AA
5. Duran in AAA
7. Canterino in A+
8. Ryan in AAA

The Jays are getting a bit thin.

AAA
Joey Murray
Zach Logue
Waguespack
Bowden Francis
Allgeyer

AA
Luciano
Maximo Castillo
Kyle Johnston
Luis Quinones

I think that he's going to be a fine centerfielder

Mike, have you watched him play CF? I only saw one game with him in CF. He had 2 flyballs, both with poor routes, going to his right a couple of steps before realizing the balls were going over him. He did correct and catch one. With the other he caught up to it, but mis-timed his leap at the wall and it ended up a triple. Again it's only one game so I can't say he'll be fine or not. But he sure didn't look instinctive.

Well, most of the argument for selling is that the Dodgers and Padres are too good to try to compete.
If Gray is happy to pitch there, it's not losing Story that will make them any worse next year.
Not that it's a well run franchise, but they could still try to get better if they want.

The only move the Tigers made was sending Norris to the Brewers for Reese Olsen.
For a while, it looked like Schoop would be easy to move.

Well "loaded with prospects" is nice, but....

Ryan 25 (AAA)
Pearson 24 (AAA)
Duran 23 (AAA)
Manoah 23 (MLB)
Balazovic 22 (A+)
SWR 20 (AA)

Just yesterday the jays had imo the 3 best of these kids. Switching one over to the other team I don't think makes them loaded and us barren.

Gerrit Cole was always going to be out of price.
They absolutely have to make substantial offers to drive the price up on Yankees and Red Sox targets.

They made an offer to Gausman, but for considerably less than he's getting with the QO.
Those are the hard gambles.

Will the Luciano gamble pay up in the end?
It's going to be easier to steal position prospects in the rule 5 draft since they're going back to 13 position players.
Harder to steal pitchers.

So, they'll have to add Hiraldo, maybe Taylor and Smith.

Manoah is already up and Pearson will join him soon.
The Twins have a bunch of guys that can compete for spots now, early next year and later next year.
That's all I'm saying.

They made an offer to Gausman, but for considerably less than he's getting with the QO.

How do you know how much they offered Gausman?

Everything about his hitting line so far is weak, other than his elite walk rate.

I'm not sure where the confidence in him being a good corner OF level bat comes from tbh.

I’m fairly neutral on this page since I am seeing what Magpie is. I think this trade on a purely cost/value basis is a loss. I think Martin/SWR are worth more than Berrios for 1.5 years.

But I think there are other things that have value here.

1. Showing belief in the team and how the players will trust the FO more.
2. Current players growth from being in the next two months.
3. Getting a cost controlled strong pitcher for next year. I think with lower attendance the Jays are more budget constrained than we think.
3b. Gives more flexibility for the offseason FA. Now the team isn’t forced to overpay in term or salary for a Berrios quality SP.

However this could definitely blow up if there is a strike next year. Jays better hope for no strike or just a partial one. If baseball loses a year again this trade goes to huge loss.

The organization may have formed its own judgment that Martin isn't that great.  Time will tell.

I'm assuming it's that. The Jays must have soured on Martin to the point where he was expendable to get a piece like Berrios. After getting a look at him for a year maybe they came to the conclusion that he isn't all that. Otherwise I can't see them including Martin in a deal like this...

I wonder if teams’ willingness to part with more quality than in past years is due to the upcoming labour situation. Do they know something we don’t?

Also, perhaps the negotiations with Ray have not gone well, so they wanted certainty and thought the value they’d recoup from Ray’s qualifying offer will soften the blow?

I think the dialog on the page, and watching the game last night, has lead me to a position closer to that, too, Kasi. There's a lot more going on than just increasing the odds at a world series in 2021 (though it does that). There's a lot of value in getting them into the hunt itself, rewarding both them and the fans for their perseverance. Also, as you said, you take one item off the shopping list in the offseason.

Of course, if the pythag record is closer to their true talent, maybe you catch lightning in a bottle and the team really takes off.

It was still a high markup on the sticker price, though.

With Glasnow being out I’m sure the Rays and others were in on Barrios too. That cost drive up was probably an intense bidding war. Very unlike Scherzer who only had 3-4 options he was willing to go to (the west coast teams). Still I think the Dodgers paid more but they also got more so it’s a better deal for them value wise.

A lot of good ideas expressed on this trade thread.

Sometimes 1 addition is bigger than itself. Consider offense. Manny without Ortiz or vice versa. Getting Alomar & Carter was what? A need for a big right handed bat? The other 2 players McGriff & Fernandez were also stars.

But Berrios is a pitcher. This off season probably does not get us an Ace or #1. A good #2 like Ray will cost a lot in $ and term. I see Stroman as a #2 also because he has multiple good years and has been consistently living up to what he is.

A good pitcher can save the pen by going deep into games. This year Atkins had to rebuild the pen mid season. It is probably not a good pen still.

I think getting Rogers some ROI had a part in the go for it moves also. A playoff run one season increases attendance the next. And I imagine the Jays are projecting full attendance will be allowed next year.

It also looks a bidding war may have developed for Berrios - San Diego was evidently after him as well. The Twins may even have planned to keep him until they got an offer they couldn't refuse.

Covid isn’t going anywhere and I don’t expect full attendance will be a thing sanctioned by the government anytime soon. My workplace isn’t opening to us til next year at minimum and I expect things to stay conservative. I can see a next year where American teams have no attendance restrictions because duh USA and Canada is still throttling attendance at 50% values. That would lead the Jays to be more cautious with their payroll parameters.