"Both AA and Atkins had no hesitation though to do a lot of tinkering and to pull the trigger on bigger trades"

Disagree on this, John at least somewhat. Last year, Atkins was pretty aggressive trading ranked prospects at the deadline to help the Jays, but not 2016. His big deal there was actually the Liriano trade, taking on an expensive, struggling pitcher's salary for prospects.

And AA was a master trader. But the 2014 deadline was a total dud, to the point that Bautista and Casey Janssen publicly groused about the lack of moves. At that point it almost seemed to me if AA didn't feel he would win a trade, he wouldn't make it. Polar opposite to the aggressive moves a year later.

In 2005, the Blue Jays finished 80-82 with a +70 run differential -- 3rd best in MLB history for a team with a losing record. Toronto was 4 games back of the wild card on August 18th, but lost 9 of 12 to finish the month. John McDonald's contract was purchased by Detroit.

The bullpen acquisitions were comparable. Grilli came in earlier and made a huge difference.
Benoit was great but then got hurt in a bench clearing brawl.
Feldman never quite delivered.

Lowe didn't pitch as well, by far, once traded.
Hawkins seemed to get worse and worse and was brutal by playoffs time.
They sure could have used another arm.
KC scored 38 runs in 6 games.

Other than acquiring 1/2 relievers I don't see Atkins being desperate because we are just starting to be competitive. We are most likely buyers.

We have a V good and young core. We do have a lot of OFs. Springer and Teoscar are our best and have future big years in the. Gurriel is streaky so he will have hot/cold streaks the rest of the year. Grichuk has a lot of value, we know who he is. Power, RBIs but hits into double plays and low OBP. Together we have V good depth. Corey Dickerson has lost his power. He may be just as good as Panik. He was a salary dump IMO.

Our rotation is V good and deep. Ryu and Ray are having good years. That should continue hopefully. Manoah needs to gain ML experience my playing. Stripling and Matz are doing quite well (#4S) in the rotation. Stripling seems to get you 6 innings more often than Matz who gets 5 innings. Our 5 starters go 5-7 innings fairly regularly which helps any bullpen.

The bullpen needs help but I would be shocked if we get a high end reliever like Kimbrel.

It's just such a perfect opportunity to use our non-star not-really-young guys like gurriel/jansen/biggio as trade bait to upgrade the pitching, with more high ceiling youngsters coming up to replace them as soon as this year.

There are a number of transactions that one could reasonably detest Ash for, but subjecting the fanbase to Steve Trachsel might be the most unforgivable for me. 63 of the most glacial and painful innings I may have ever witnessed as a fan of the team.

Upgrade pitching using Gurriel, Jansen or Biggio sounds good. In Gurriel you lose good offense, Biggio is solid/proven but due to Semien contributes less this year. Trading Jansen at the deadline means that our rotation will have to adjust to a new guy. This could be dangerous IMO.

A new SP would have to be quite good to displace Stripling/Matz. That would be hard to obtain.

Getting bullpen help can be very hard sometimes. Henke/Ward/D Wells kind of showed up and were very good. Joey M, Caudill, BJ Ryan and others were big names that did not work out. Joey not a big name.

I'd be hesitant to trade Biggio as I think he gives you a cheap average to above average 2b next year, letting the budget go towards 3b, SP, or RP.

Mostly academic, but I tried to figure out a challenge trade where Semien goes out and the Jays get back a 3b, but I can't really think of anything that makes sense. A contender isn't trading a top 3b, and a non-contender doesn't want Semien.

Or we could....sign Semien.

I thought about the Ugly, but I'm not sure if that's a good use of resources. They have a perfectly cromulent 2b, and Semien doesn't seem interested in play 3b. That said, I wouldn't be disappointed if they signed him, just not sure if that's the best use of resources.

Jordan Groshans will take 3B sometime next year if he can stay healthy and we have guys (Biggio,Espinal,Valera,Smith) that can compete in the interm But I'd Trade Semien for pitching.

Semien is an MVP candidate btw.

Semien's been incredible this year, but I"m not super optimistic that this is a new level for him.

85bluejay, trading Semien is a very bold move. SD will probably take him and send back some very good prospects.

Semien's bat will be hard to replace. Biggio, Espinal and K Smith can handle the defense at 2B & 3B. Even SS Espinal/Smith.

I am really impressed by Semien both in production and demeanor but I think he's priced himself out of the Jays future especially with the need for quality pitching, the coming Teo/Bo/Vlad contracts and internal options in the system.I don't believe that this company will go over the luxury tax.

Semien is eligible for a qualifying offer in the offseason so the return in a trade would have to be pretty good. This is the best case scenario for Semien to me. He has played so well that he has made a big impact on the team this year, and that it should be an easy choice for him to turn down the QO in the offseason. The Jays are still free to sign him of course, but I agree that the money would be better allocated to pitching.

Teoscar is the guy you don't re-up, imo. Barely passable corner OF even now, with a good but not great bat. Only 2yrs younger than Semien with much less defensive leeway going forward into his physical decline years.

Hernandez would be a good guy to trade for a controllable arm if there's a contender out there with pitching to spare.

Agree with Ugly on multiple points. Trade not so young good young players like Gurriel, Biggio and Jansen… don’t forget about Pearson. That will get you a top 2 starting pitcher + more under a good contract which will free up budget to resign some of your existing players.

Trading Semien would be about the dumbest move this front office could do. In addition to being one of your top 2 players, he’s one of the head of the players union as a representative and well connected throughout the game. He’s been everything George Springer was promised to be and more. To sell him means you lose the trade in the short term and pull the plug in supporting your team for a stretch run while returning to Toronto.

“I know, let’s trade our best player that isn’t a defensive liability right before we return to Toronto. Yeah, that will fire up the crowd.”

“I know, let’s trade our best player that isn’t a defensive liability right before we return to Toronto. Yeah, that will fire up the crowd.”

Vlad isn't a defensive liability, but the rest of your point is bang on.

I have concluded that we are the youngest team in the AL that is in their contending window. I don't think the Jays should fear any other AL team. We need to prove to ourselves that we can beat all the other strong AL teams. NYY, Boston, TB, Oakland etc... while in our window. Hopefully we start beating them this year.

In the NL there are 2 super teams LAD who will use money and good player acquisitions to be very strong. Bauer & Betts. SD is the other team because they have added Machado, Snell, Darvish and Musgrove. They are committed to continue adding. Both are in direct competition for 1st in the NL West. SF got lucky IMO with their FA pitchers. That probably does not last.

Right now the Jays need to build a reliable pen and develop as many Aces/#1 SPs as they can to contribute for the next 5+ years. The only #1 we have is Ryu for 2 more years. A lot is probably riding on Manoah to become an Ace/#1. Ray may stay but probably leaves. Pearson, SWR and others will get opportunities to join the rotation and try to become Ace/#1 SPs.

I have strong doubts that Pearson will ever be in the Jay's rotation for any length of time. I think he is a pitching version of Dalton Pompey -- talented but injured a lot of the time.

I still don't know the details of Pearson's groin injury. Surgery or not?? I will wait until the end of next ST to see if he can get healthy. Merryweather is also long term injured. Groshans also seems to get many minor injuries.

I don't think the team will trade Biggio or Gurriel, and don't see them getting much of anything for Jansen. My guess/hope is they trade McGuire for whatever they can get as I don't see why a 2 week BABIP related hot streak has suddenly made him the starting catcher against RHP. A Kirk/Jansen tandem seems a lot more logical, mainly since Jansen might have a positive impact with Ryu which is important to the team's chances, and even in development stages Kirk is still likely better than Reese.

Beyond that, I could see the Jays trying to sell high on some expendable depth pieces (Smith, Adams, Taylor, etc) both to recoup value and for future 40 man roster clean-up. I'm not expecting any big moves either way. Big meaning trading legit top prospects.

I believe that the obvious trade candidate for the the blue jays is Kirk. I love the guy btw but I think we're okay for catcher at the moment. Jansen I think is better than he's shown and has the defensive chops. McGuire I think is fine for a backup. Kirk on the other hand seems like a great gamble for a team who isn't set at catcher and has some controllable pitching at hand.

There is a question as to what an extension would look like with Semien and whether the term/$ will make sense for the team, but I think Semien has clearly established his new level. Since his breakout in 2018, Semien is 7th in MLB in position player fWAR.

I'm with ugly on this one - put me down as a No for trading Semien* (*exceptions apply, as with anything in life).

I still think that if this team is going to go big, it's going to be for a player controllable for multiple years. That means it'd be really big, putting Person, Kirk, Gurriel, and others on the table. I'd be looking for a Marquez type, which would at least be a Snell-type package.

I'd be hesitant to trade Hernandez, though, because he's having a solid-good year without getting locked in power-wise.

I'm sure I'll have more thoughts as time allows. Darned work!

I'll say it again - trading Kirk is lunacy imo. He could well be the 2nd best youngster in the organization.

As for Semien - not as much as Springer due to the qualifying offer situation and a sportier track record.

But....6 x $20m?

Spottier not sportier. Ach.

Edit feature plz.

Semien's only missed 5 games since the start of 2019. I knew he was durable, didn't realize he was quite that great.

I don't think any of Jansen, Gurriel or even Biggio have much trade value right now. They're all having poor years by their own standards. It might make sense to move one of them in the offseason depending on how they perform in the second half and whether there are any other additions. They're all needed at the moment.

To get something of value you likely need to trade something of value. If you want to sell low on players/prospects than thats fine but you're going to get less than what you would have gotten in the offseason. I think to get any true difference maker people will have to be ready to lose favored players/prospects, whether that be a Kirk or Orelvis or Groshans.

Supposedly the Twins' ask for Berrios was a pre-arb MLB player and 2 Top-100 prospects.

If the Jays win both series against the Red Sox before the deadline they'd be foolish to not target a true difference maker.

The 2000 trade deadline brought up a memory I hope someone else can confirm.

The Jays got Dave Martinez as replacement for Delgado who had broke his wrist a few days before the deadline? I remember Martinez had a very productive stint with the Jays but it wasn't enough.

You can't trade your OK major leaguers for big upgrades. If the Jays are going to make a big move (not saying they have to) they will need to trade prospects people want as the core of the trade and you can add some of those major leaguers to build more value in the deal. I like both Kirk and Moreno but it doesn't make sense to me to keep two catching prospects if you have needs elsewhere. I'd rather keep Moreno since he looks likely to stick at catcher and Kirk looks like he'll be a DH which kills a ton of value. I'd trust the organization to know more and obviously and I am positive Moreno would bring you back more as well. Similarly, it seems like Groshans and Orelvis are both 3B types so can trade one but I don't like trading Groshans when his value seems depressed and either could also move to corner OF in a year or two as well.

I'd be happy to sign Semien to a 4 year extension or something but also fine if the Jays don't do it because I think Bo needs to move to 2B soon and Jays can easily (if expensively) upgrade at SS with all the FA next off-season).

I don't see the Jays doing much before the deadline. The offseason might be a better time to try to find a partner for Gurriel/Jansen/Biggio/Hernandez. Don't get me wrong, a deal for Bryant/Kimbrel would be exciting the same way the 2015 deals were but the key difference is that team was old and the 2021 team is not.

Martinez was traded after the deadline and mostly played the OF. Looking at game logs Delgado was in the lineup at 1B in August. Were you thinking of a Mondesi injury, perhaps? I remember Martinez going on a good run that season too. 2000 was a bit of a mirage season IIRC -- the team never seemed competitive but hung around in the standings.

We've been talking about the Jays vaunted catching depth for years, and yet they don't have a solid everyday MLB performer at C yet. I'd hoard catching prospects personally. Probably lucky if one of Jansen, McGuire, Adams, Kirk, Moreno etc turns into an above average regular.

There are clues as to where they are heading. The acquisition of Dickerson makes it pretty obvious one of Gurriel, Grichuk, or Hernandez is expendable. They are not going to keep five outfielders. I'd be surprised if it's Teoscar.

You look at the Jays needs and how they could get better now and in the future. Getting a good controllable young pitcher is going to cost a ridiculous amount, and I don't see them doing that at this juncture.

Third base looks like it could use an upgrade with better defence and bat. I keep thinking if a Teoscar-Jose Ramirez swap with Cleveland might happen. Both teams would get a similar level of offense, the Jays get the better overall player, and a left handed bat to boot. Cleveland might do it since Ramirez is getting expensive and Teoscar has two more years of control after this.

For a 2 month rental, 1 or 2 prospects not in the top 10.
Stripling was a rental + 2 years and the cost was Kendall Williams and Ryan Noda.

The Twins want 1 pre-arb player and 2 top 100 prospect for Berrios.
That's the same Twins who didn't want to give a top 100 prospect for Stroman.

SD would have zero interest in Semien right now - their infield is killer with Cronenworth at 2B 133 OPS+, age 27;  Tatis Jr. at SS 182 OPS+ age 22;  Machado at 3B 139 OPS+ age 28; backup Ha-Seong Kim 74 OPS+ age 25 but so strong on defense his WAR is 1.3 in under 200 PA (around a 4 in a full season, marginal All-Star level).

• June 19th: Troy Miller for Jacob Barnes
• June 29th: Andrew McInvale and Joe Panik for cash, Adam Cimber and Corey Dickerson
• July 6th: Rowdy Tellez for Bowden Francis and Trevor Richards

• Cedric Mullins (O's CF 150 OPS+, not a free agent until after 2025) for Grichuk, Groshans, Miguel Hiraldo, and McGuire (I'd go for it)
• Joey Gallo (Texas RF 150 OPS+ 1 1/2 years left) for Groshans, Gurriel Jr., Miguel Hiraldo
• Joey Gallo Kyle Gibson (Texas SP 195 ERA+ 1 1/2 years left), Ian Kennedy (Closer 15 saves 169 ERA+ free agent after this year), and prospect Jonathan Hernandez (60 day IL 142 ERA+ in majors so far in relief mostly) for Lopez and Martin - a win now trade
• Jose Berrios (Twins SP 120 ERA+ 1 1/2 years left) for Jansen, Kirk, Lopez (there goes the catching depth)
• Kris Bryant (Cubs 3B/OF 130 OPS+ free agent) and Craig Kimbrel (closer 21 Saves 748 ERA+, expensive option year next year) for Espinal, Gurriel Jr., Jansen (I'd go for it)
• And many, many others.

Those trades could be by Jay fans or by other teams, but in all cases were judged by the system as fair trades.  A few I'd go for, I'd have trouble with the Martin & Lopez for all the best from Texas, although it is very, very tempting.  I can't imagine Atkins doing it though.

I do think its amusing that with this thread going on that today is the anniversary of the Michael Young for Loaiza trade. That one did not work out very well.

Breaking news: Alex Manoah tripped on slippery stairs. Start against BOS in question.

It always amuses me how silly baseball player off field injuries are.

Given the number of suitcase injuries, I'm not sure why they don't hire people to carry anything heavier than a pack of gum.

If only he had some sticky stuff for his shoes...

In 2000, it was Mondesi who suffered a season-ending injury in late July. The Jays traded for Dave Martinez two weeks later and he spent most of his time in Toronto playing RF in Mondesi's place. Delgado played all 162 games that year.

The FO tried hard to trade for Lindor. They were in the final mix for Bauer and they were reported to be in the running for Gerrit Cole. They’ve signed Ryu and Springer. They were down to the wire with DJ Lemahieu. They offered Gausman and Kluber very good deals. They signed Marcus Semien. They almost signed Michael Brantley. This front office has been very aggressive and I expect them to either trade cheap prospects for “rest of season” help on expiring contracts like Scherzer or Bryant, or trade high end prospects or core players for similar type starting pitchers from other teams. That means trading from surplus which is:

Kirk, Moreno, Jansen

Groshans, Martin, Martinez, Biggio

Gurriel

The “lesser prospects for short term rentals would be Taylor, Smith, etc.

I predict this FO will go big in the next 2 weeks and trade for short term help using “cheap prospects” and long term help using core prospects/help.

Shapiro and Atkins have said in the past that they would look to add an impact player at the trade deadline and another one during the 2021-2022 offseason.

I expect them to try to add an impact player with some years of control at the deadline...they might not succeed, but I believe that would be their aim. Other than that I do expect them to do a few deals for rentals like in 2016 and last year's trade deadline.

Dream scenario for the deadline would be getting a good starting pitcher with control and a good position player(3B) with control as well as 2 back end reliever rentals.

The Jays were reluctant to hand out more than 1 year deals (other than Springer who's a long term piece) last offseason. I wonder if that's due to the uncertainty over the upcoming labour agreement between the players and owners or because they intend to make some big free agent signings next year as they have a lot of contracts coming off the books with only have about 65 million in guaranteed contracts next year.

I hope Shapiro and Atkins stay away from giving out bad contracts.

Interesting note from Shapiro in his interview yesterday - one way to improve the BP is to give them a bigger lead to work with, indicating the Jays are looking to strengthen the lineup in addition to pitching.

I'd like them to give QOs to Ray and Semien.
Try to sign Ray to a deal similar to Ryu's.
Then sign 2 or 3 top relievers.
I'd be fine with using internal options at 3B. (Smith, Lopez, etc)

Gausman could be a target, but I expect him to sign a crazy deal.

I'd skip on a Michael Young type trade this year. 

No one makes a Michael Young type trade on purpose. But it's not the easiest thing to avoid because when they traded him he was only a B prospect, and had a very unusual development path ahead of him before he became a star. Kevin Smith and Otto Lopez are probably the closest comparables to Young as B prospects without excellent pedigree, but both are hitting much better than Young was when traded, Lopez doing it one year younger and Smith doing it one level higher.

Darvish trade illustrates the opposite.

Reading the trade rumors website it seems another starter might be too expensive this year (as it normally is) as the Padres announced they'll go over cap if needed (2 very good starters, 2 not so good, and 2 solid but IL), the Mets are in dire need of starting help with deGrom down (sad given the historic year he was having) and now are down to Stroman & Walker for experienced starters (next 3 are on the IL). The Phillies are Zach Wheeler then pray for 4 days of rain. 3 of Atlanta's top 6 are on the IL. The Dodgers crazy depth is being tested with Bauer on the inelgible list, Kershaw IL, Dustin May IL, so now they have just 4 starters (Buehler, Urias, Gonsolin, and Price) while being creative for 5th starter.

Sheesh and we complain about all our pen injuries. If the Jays can somehow get a good starter for a decent price (unlikely, but weirder things have happened) or more pen depth that'd be ideal. If not, then a high end hitter who'd complement the lineup at 3B or OF (LF or RF) would be ideal. Jose Ramirez the switch hitting 3B who can hit and field is my top target, Bryant would be nice from the Cubs, Patrick Wisdom for the Cubs is a 29 year old out of nowhere who took over 3B with a 157 OPS+ but with under 1 year of ML experience it could be just a hot streak and odds are they wouldn't trade him at a reasonable price. German Marquez & Jon Gray in Colorado are tempting targets (1 1/2 years and 1/2 year respectively of control). KC middle man Scott Barlow is tempting (159 ERA+ 3.9 BB/9 vs 12.4 K/9). Minny would love to dump their crazy contract for Josh Donaldson on someone (132 OPS+ owed over $40 mil the next 2 years), Nelson Cruz having a very good year as a pure DH, Jose Berrios would be a solid starter (113 ERA+) Taylor Rogers a good LH middle man for the pen. Jose Cisnero for Detroit is having a solid middle man year too, Boyd on IL but has a 125 ERA+. Baltimore has Cedric Mullins (CF 150 OPS+) who'd be nice. Miami has Starling Marte (CF 131 OPS+) Sandy Alcantara a solid pitcher who is arbitration eligible thus Marlins might be willing to trade. Might.

But Texas with Joey Gallo (RF power), Kyle Gibson (solid starter, 155 ERA+ so far), and Ian Kennedy (closer 15-1 so far) are the best target imo - a last place team, with 3 guys who could help.

Very nice John N. C Sale started his rehab and was fantastic. I am guessing 1 more rehab start and he is back.

John,

This was a great post, and timely as well. Is there any way to pin this thread to the top of the web page?

Gillick was called Stand Pat because he was very inactive during that time. He was a smart baseball man so he would have good reason to do that IMO.

St Louis I believe overturned their position players back in the late 80s. I think they traded away power and pretty decent hitting for speed and defense.

There are reasons to trade and also positions on the win curve when you trade accordingly. Minor strengthening or big push.

Oh yeah, Gillick was a very smart baseball man, and probably still is. However, that stretch of no trades was a massive mistake by him. After the frustratingly so close 1987 season he didn't do a single trade for over a year. From September 22, 1987: Traded Mike Sharperson for Juan Guzman (a great trade in the long run) he didn't do another one until a minor one - March 9, 1989: Traded Cliff Young for DeWayne Buice. On April 30th he traded Jesse Barfield for Al Leiter - a good long term deal to open up OF space (Junior Felix took charge for awhile). But that 1988 team was expected to contend. No obvious holes in the lineup (Manny Lee was at 2B and had the worst OPS+ of any regular at 96), the rotation was wobbly with Clancy, Flanagan, and Stottlemyre all sub 100 for ERA+, Clancy the worst at 87. The 5 man pen was Henke/Ward/Cerutti/Eichhorn/David Wells. Hmm...far better team than I recalled. It would've taken a very gutsy trade to improve it. Lots of mediocre players (around 100 ERA+ or OPS+) who had shown more in the recent past. The #1 improvement would've been to fire the manager and not do the moronic Sil Campusano mess.

Thanks for the info on the 1988 Jays. I checked a lot of the stats.

Barfield had about 2.7 years left in his career post Jays. Gruber had about 4 years left in his career (most of it with the jays). So players age and careers end. They need to be replaced at the right time. Replace because of age and salary.

Whitt bb/k 61/38. Mulliniks 56/57. Baffling ... different era.

But that 1988 team was expected to contend.

In retrospect, the biggest thing that happened that year was the three brilliant young outfielders, the pride of the team, all started breaking down. They were all just 27 years old, and their best years were already behind them. I blame that damn concrete playing surface at the old Ex, and the manager who played them every single day.

Obviously it didn't help that Jimmy Key missed two months and that Jim Clancy pitched so badly for three months that they sent him to the pen for a few weeks. But it was the sudden decline of Bell, Moseby, and Barfield that really changed everything.

John, you seem to consider yourself a sort of Box custodian of the 1980’s. Lots of us were there, too. Aside from the sheer arrogance and presumption of your pronouncement that Gillick’s non-trading “was a massive mistake by him”, (were you privy to all the talks and abortive negotiations that went on during that period, to the myriad contingencies that might have thwarted trades?), the trades for Guzman and Leiter eventually proved, in fact, to be very shrewd indeed -- as you at least parenthetically hint.

After the 1988 "no trade" time Gillick did the Alomar trade. Then the Morris, Winfield and Cone acquisitions. The next year D Stewart and P Molitor and T Fernandez.

So FA signings & trades. That team was on its last legs. Right?? Guzman was the pitching star. Hentgen and Timlin were the pitching additions from the farm. Sprague and Dereck Bell added some value from the farm.

Yeah, that turf didn't help one iota. In 1987 all 3 played 155+ games despite having a decent backup in Rick Leach there (105 OPS+, not bad on defense iirc). In 1986 150+ games each, 1985 150+ games each. 1984 Barfield was a backup while Bell & Moseby played 150+ each, 151 for Moseby in 1983. Gee, what a shock they all broke down while playing on the hardest turf in the AL (Montreal's was worse - imagine how good Raines and Dawson could've been if it was better). Yet the Jays in '85 dumped a very good 4th OF in Mitch Webster (101 career OPS+, 131 in 1985 after being dumped to Montreal for Cliff Young (didn't reach until 1990 with the Angels). Bet the Jays would've won 100+ in '85 with him giving Bell/Moseby/Barfield a break instead of Lou Thornton (rule 5 - 58 OPS+ and avoiding being used as much as possible) and Ron Shepherd (career 28 OPS+, 3-1 SB-CS, only had an 800+ OPS in the minors once, over a 144 PA season). Sigh. Bobby Cox was a smart manager but he ran his players into the ground, and Jimy Williams repeated that mistake in '86 and '87. During that stretch Tony Fernandez set the Jays consecutive games record (last 9 of '84, every game in '85 and '86, first 70 of 87 for a total of 403 games in a row, broken by Carlos Delgado who made it to 432).

I'm quite glad the Jays don't do that anymore to the players. 150 is as far as you should push it for outfielders. DH time is a good semi-rest for guys like Vlad.

Dewey - not trying to be the Box custodian. Just giving opinions. Yeah, I do it a lot but that is what this site is for. I feel Gillick made his share of mistakes like all others did. His love for keeping duds like Upshaw and Iorg on the roster in '87 for example. But he did TONS great - the master stroke being that trade of a couple of relievers to get Dave Collins (key to the '84 team) and a prospect named McGriff. In the days before computers were 1% of what they are today, his legendary memory was super-useful in trade talks according to all accounts (Segap Wolley was his nickname - Yellow Pages backwards because he knew every name in the book it seemed). No question his deals for Guzman and Leiter were also great. But his sitting on his hands in '83 and '88 always bugged me, as did his pushing along with Williams for Bell to be a full time DH in '88 when it was painfully obvious at the time he wouldn't go along with it (his ego was well known to be massive, and given he won the MVP in '87 [which should've gone to Alan Trammell but that is a different discussion] he deserved to be part of the conversation). If they felt the defense was that bad they should've done a trade of Moseby to make room for Campusano instead.

Gillick was a HOF GM, no question. That rep of being unwilling to deal in '88 was a massive deal at the time (I remember many articles on it in the papers, and his 'Stand Pat' nickname). Like many he fell in love with his guys. Dealing Barfield was the break needed to make things change - I suspect Junior Felix doing so well right away helped move Gillick on that subject even more. Then the damn broke in 1991 with the McGriff/Fernandez for Alomar/Carter deal and the White for Felix (with others) deal, then the Winfield and Morris free agent signings the next season, etc. etc. etc. Maybe he needed to get hit with that rep and see the team be so painfully close in '88 and '90 to build the 92/93 teams. Sadly his hand picked successor was as bad as his replacement for Cox - guess that was a blind spot for him at the time.

The 1988 team was supposed to be a contender, and we look now at the final standings and assume that they were. But they weren't. Not even close. They were below .500 all season long. They just got really, really hot in September (22-7) once it was much too late to matter.

I don't know what Gillick could have done that year. That team was let down by their best players, and the development of McGriff and Gruber, in their first seasons as everyday players, wasn't enough to make up for it. The three outfielders, who had combined for almost 14 WAR in 1987, provided less than 6 in 1988. The two best starters from 1987 (Clancy and Key) who had won 32 games in 1987 were pretty much useless for half the season - Key got hurt, and Clancy was 4-11, 5.37 at the Break.

Newberg's proposal according to Trade Values is a major overpay for the Jays (most here would go 'duh') Scored as 39.7 to 55.2, you'd need to find 15-16 more value, or remove that from the Jays side. Either Martinez or SWR are needed to make it work, but not both. Hiraldo would do the trick instead of SWR based on that tool.

Gallo, Gibson, Ian Kennedy for Gurriel, Woods Richardson, Martinez, Kirk is again a gross overpay, I mean insanely so. The type of deal a GM hangs up the phone and refuses to call back about. Martinez, Gurriel, and Hiraldo is almost enough, add Otto Lopez and you're set.

Clearly Newberg is a local fanboy who isn't factoring in reality yet in trades. No matter what trade the Rangers make he'll be disappointed unless some GM trades damaged goods that aren't caught until after it is final (ala Wells for Sirotka all those years ago, which put the final nail in Gord Ash's career as a GM).

There was an archived thread from Nov. 1. 2013 titled Hypothetical Trade 1 by Eephus. In it he proposed a Colby Rasmus trade to Cincinnati for Homer Bailey. It's interesting to look back at this and the comments that followed with the benefit of hindsight.

Looking up stats on both players shows that if the trade had indeed been made that offseason, both teams would have benefitted the next year but both player's production dropped off in subsequent years, especially for Rasmus.

Bauxites were generally against the deal as we viewed Colby as a pretty good player ( Which he was at the time) and also that the Jays didn't have a surplus of talent in the outfield. I hate to pick on Mike Green but I have to highlight two of his comments. 1) " Bautista is great when healthy but cannot be counted on for more than 120 games in the outfield and even that may be pushing it." That was a reasonable statement at the time but Bautista went on to play more than 150 games in 3 of the next 4 years, albeit some of these games were as the DH. 2) " I like Kevin Pillar but counting on him to be any more than a platoon corner outfielder is unreasonable." Again, another reasonable statement at the time but Pillar surprised us by becoming Superman and patrolling centerfield for the next 5 years.

Whiterasta80 said " Unfortunately I don't see Rasmus getting us Bailey. He might get us Cueto however and I'd be interested in that as well." Actually Cueto looked like a better pitcher at the time and a Rasmus for Cueto trade would have worked out great for the Jays as he started a career high 34 games in 2014, averaging nearly 7 innings a start. ( 243 innings with 242 strikeouts)

Again, in hindsight years after the fact, it is easy to wish a certain trade had been made, or to criticize one that was completed. Also you can see that many prospects don't pan out, some become at least adequate major leaguers, but only a few turn out to be Michael Young types. Still, it makes me nervous to see Moreno and Martinez mentioned as trade bait because " ya never know!"

Atkins and his staff seem to understand probability theory and strategy. Vlad and Bo destroying Lansing and Dunedin together presented evidence that they may be good ML players. Both progressed and Atkins took his time promoting them.

Atkins loaded up on arms with the hope that some of Hatch, K Johnston, Waguespack etc... will become useful.

Kirk, Martinez, Moreno, Groshans and Martin are 5 V good prospects that need 1 or 2 more years to prove that they are elite prospects. Prospects fail, so expecting all 5 to succeed is not good probability IMO. 1 or 2 may become elite. I cannot pick which ones. Experience tells me that a Mark Appel failed. Hindsight.

We are entering our window and have hopes of prolonging the window. A cheap star or 2 will help prolong the window. A long window should produce a lot of protit for the owners.

" a lot of protit for the owners."

Uh, you mean hookers?

Island Boy,  the Bautista comment turned out to be pretty accurate.  Bautista did play 130 games in the outfield in 2014, 118 games in 2015 and 90 in 2016.  And while he was in the outfield a fair bit in 2015, his defence suffered due to the shoulder injury. 

Sorry, Mike, I tried looking up how many games Bautista DH'ed but couldn't find the right site. I had forgotten how much he DH'ed. I wasn't trying to discredit you, just saying what we speculate and predict on here often doesn't happen, like saying that a certain prospect might take over a position on the major league club but they don't turn out or get traded.

I thought for a while that Brett Lawrie was our star of the future, that Ricky Romero would be one of the best Jay's pitchers of all time and last year I would have said that Rowdy Tellez would be our first baseman for the next decade.

Clearly Newberg is a local fanboy who isn't factoring in reality yet in trades.

Newberg's position, not entirely unreasonably, is that Texas doesn't have to trade Gallo, due to both years of team control left and the fact they may wish to resign him, so any trade would need to be one that Texas was convinced was worth it from their perspective.

Thomas I get saying a team needs a very good deal but his were basically asking for multiple top talent kids for a good OF but not a HOF level one. If the Jays did his deals they'd be torn apart over it. It was the type of trade we see here often (Tellez for Judge type deal). Where you overvalue your asset and undervalue the other teams. That is why I now run stuff through trade values to see if I'm way off on my initial thoughts or not. Local bias is very real and needs to be controlled if you want to make reasonable deal scenarios, plus years of control, raw talent, etc. can be super hard to measure as a fan. Now, if he said "I think Texas needs to be overwhelmed to trade Gallo" then his deals make sense, but only if one thinks Atkins feels a LOT of pressure to win now ala AA in 2015.

Texas doesn't have to trade Gallo

I don't know why they'd even be thinking about it. The only reason is if they're certain they can't sign him long term. Gallo's younger than all four Toronto outfielders, and his specific skills - power and plate discipline - have been known to age rather well. He should still be a very good player when the team gets good again.

Bautisa is a good reminder of how we as fans know little...

Opening Day 2010 the year he hit 50. - so many pushing for Bautista to be at 3B, Randy Ruiz seeing tons of love, former regular TamRa "i continue to be mysitifed that people think we should be better offensively with Bautista out there every day instead of Encarnacion", lots pushing Lind in LF (ugh), Bautista at 3B (ugh), Ruiz as DH, EE on bench.

Or for real fun this game in 2009 has someone pushing for seeing if Bautista can handle SS!!! and thankfully jerjapan was wrong with "I'd be surprised if the Jays resign Bautista. His contract was viewed pretty negatively round these parts last year, and he's been worse in 09 than in 08. Add in that we are cutting costs and I call him as close to a goner as any free agent this side of Johnny Mac." Magpie was a lot more accurate mentioning the idea of Bautista at SS was crazy. Or katman "Bautista has a great outfield arm, flexibility at 3rd, and an unreliable bat."

I don't think ANYONE here thought Bautista was about to break out, let alone like he did. I know I didn't know if he was worth keeping at the time. Just goes to show how for all our talk we still don't know everything. Part of what I love about baseball - it can always surprise.

I don't think ANYONE here thought Bautista was about to break out, let alone like he did.

Mal from the Blue Jays press box team knew. I spent all of 2009 saying to him that Bautista's obviously a useful guy, but where's the power? I thought he was supposed to have a little pop. And Mal kept saying "just you wait!"

I've been getting the impression that what Atkins is really looking for is starting pitching and that he's frustrated by both what's available and what the price would be. This looks like a seller's market. The team is 8-8 when Matz starts. Maybe you can go 9-3 in the 12 starts you'd get from Max Scherzer. Is that enough to make a difference? How much would it cost?

I read something today that suggests Minnesota is not really willing to trade off their pitchers with control. So if the twins are out of the reasonable market than who is there available? Scherzer would be expensive and they're not out of it either in that weak division. So that leaves Hendricks and Gibson pretty much and neither are that great of an option.

"He should still be a very good player when the team gets good again."

But when will they be good again? Not much talent on the big league roster and not a strong farm system, even with the addition of Leiter. Rebuild will probably take more than a couple of years. Trading peak value Gallo might accelerate that if they find the right deal.

Scherzer cannot be traded anywhere without his consent. Who was the last player with a full no-trade clause to accept a trade to the Jays?

I'm still not convinced this is the season to cash those chips and doubt they will

Me neither. Max Scherzer is the only David Price type difference maker, he's probably not available, and he probably wouldn't make enough difference if he was.

Marquez is probably as good, but apparently despite Colorado sucking as usual he's not available.

Trade Value Series at FG 2021.

Bo makes the list at #20, with IMO, an excellent breakdown of his strengths and weaknesses and how much they really matter.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2021-trade-value-11-to-20/

Marquez with 3 years of control is the type of guy I'd go nuts for. 119 ERA+ lifetime, 130+ this year and last. He is exactly who every team would offer up a farm for, and the type Colorado needs to trade right now. Sucks for their fans, but they ain't gonna be contending in the next 3 years so they might as well cash in big chips like Marquez now rather than wait and get far less.

Jays are one of the few teams with cash available so they could eat Charlie Blackmon's (95 OPS+ RF age 34) salary as part of a deal ($31 mil over next 2 years in player options). That could be a massive sweetener for a team that is very budget orientated right now.

Without eating Blackmon's payroll Trade Value says it would take Groshans, Hiraldo, Martinez, and Pearson. Ouch. Taking on Blackmon would let you remove Groshans or Pearson. The system has Pearson and SWR as about equal value (tiny bit more for SWR now). A pure cash eat would be taking reliever Scott Oberg who has blood clot issues and hasn't pitches since 2019 but is owed $7 mil (team option for $8 mil in 2023) plus whatever is left of this years salary. He would cover most of Hiraldo's value.

Given how I have to think Colorado's #1 priority right now is reducing cash outlay and the Jays have the payroll space right now this might be how a deal could work out. Jays give up a lot still but by eating salary they give up less and get a star for the rotation for a few years while Colorado gets what they need - youth and payroll space. Not saying it will happen, but that I see that as how it could happen. Of course I don't know how much space on payroll the Jays really have but given they are moving back to the dome and Rogers had a great last quarter at least in part due to Jays TV ratings according to what I read I'd say it makes a lot of sense.

Nelson Cruz is off to Tampa Bay.