I too agree that baseball just can't get out of its own way sometimes. The uniforms were just breathtakingly awful. I understand the league is probably trying to market the individual stars more, rather than the teams, (which BTW I think they are doing a better job of lately), but taking away the team uniform is going overboard. It also didn't help that Acuna, Trout, DeGrom and a couple other big stars weren't there. The voting system was also gimmicky, and should be changed back to overall votes. I'm not sure what the point of having the various rounds of voting was. It just makes something that should be simple harder to understand.
And the home run derby. I actually found the first round very entertaining, but after two hours, it just gets stale, and taxing on the players Again, why drag it out into a four hour thing? I'm sure it could have hooked a few more legit stars if they knew it wasn't going to be a marathon. It should just be like it was for so long, let the talent make the show and stop overthinking the format.
I'm happy the 7 inning doubleheader and extra inning runner on second is reportedly being scrapped.
Big Papi is starting to look like Mr. T.
After 436 relief appearances, made his 1st career start this past weekend, throwing 2 shutout innings.
2021
Starting pitcher, ERA, FIP
Aaron Loup, 0.00, 1.16
Jacob deGrom, 1.08, 1.23
Let's see if I can guess the other 3 JPR holdovers.
I'm pretty sure Ryan Tepera is one.
My second guess would be Jake Marisnick, though I have a feeling he might have been drafted earlier under AA.
Not too sure on the last one. Does Travis Snider still count?
So there must be a fourth.
Yan Gomes appears to be the right answer, which I was nowhere close to remembering. I of course remember the Esmil Rogers trade, but am too thick to understand hypobole's hint about a certain Ray.
I think maybe Gomes was traded for Robbie Ray at one point, but BBref says no.
It's clear that the rise of the NFL in the last couple decades has pretty much ended any chance of baseball reaching the level of interest it had in the 70's and 80's. With the exception of 2016 (the Cubs finally winning) and 2004 (The Red Sox finally winning) the television ratings have gone down steadily. Last year was the least watched World Series of all time.
TV ratings aren't what they used to be, but they're still probably a pretty good indicator of roughly how many people are watching.
It's obvious baseball will never get back to the level of 1980, where 32 million people on average watched the World Series. The world is just such a different place, and the pace and speed of a baseball game/season just doesn't jive with those changes. Yet, I think it's a realistic target that the MLB get back to where it was in the 90's.
2009: Yan Gomes 10th round did best, currently a 114 OPS+ for Washington at age 33. Jays traded him to get Esmil Rogers way back in 2012.
2008: Eric Thames round 7, just a 71 OPS+ for Washington last year, just 10 games in Japan this year with a 1.042 OPS (hurt maybe?)
2007: Brett Cecil Round 1 Supplemental (for loss of Free Agent Justin Speier), last pitched in 2018
2006: Travis Snider round 1, 14th overall pick but only 4.3 WAR lifetime, quite disappointing for a guy who was so hyped at one time, #6 prospect in MLB at one time.
2005: Ricky Romero round 1, 2013 last ML pitch, was in minors trying for a comeback as recently as 2017.
2004: Adam Lind round 3 last played in 2017 in majors, 2018 in minors, a 122 OPS+ in his final ML season.
2003: Aaron Hill round 1 (only 20+ WAR guy by JPR) - played in majors until 2017, and round 3 Shaun Marcum (13.4 WAR puts him among his best draft picks) played until 2015.
2002: Dave Bush round 2 (3.6 WAR, only guy with more than 0, the infamous Russ Adams had 0.0 exactly) Forgot Bush came back to play his final ML game here in 2013.
Ugh. Reminds me of how bad JPR was as a GM. After Ash he seemed good, but vs the 2 we had after he was horrid. 8 drafts and just 1 guy with 20+ WAR out of it.
OK, now I had to check AA's... (round in brackets, or DNS for did not sign)
2010: Kris Bryant (DNS) 27 WAR, Noah Syndergaard (1S) 16 WAR
2011: Aaron Nola (DNS) 23 WAR, Kevin Pillar (32) 16 WAR
2012: Marcus Stroman (1) 16 WAR
2013: Matthew Boyd (6) 7.8
2014: Jordan Romano (10) 1.9
2015: Brady Singer (DNS) 1.8, Travis Bergen (7) 0.7. Ugh.
Atikins
2016: Bo Bichette (2) 6.4
2017: Ty Tice (16) 0.1
2018: Nick Allgeyer (12) 0.0
2019: Alek Manoah (1) 1.1
2020 and 2021 haven't reached yet (no shock)
Far too soon for Atikins to have 20+, if Bo hasn't reached yet then it is pretty hard to that quick. AA's saw 2 20+ guys drafted but not signed, and 3 guys come close to 20 but not over it yet (all still active), but his last draft looks like a dud to this point. Ash's reign had lots of 'wow' in round 1 (Halladay, Wells, Rios) and others later on (Casey Blake (7), Orlando Hudson (43), Michael Young (5), but never could put together a solid ML team that could make the playoffs despite being handed Carlos Delgado, Chris Carpenter, and other quality players and a deep farm day one.
I may be alone on this but I kind of like the 7 inning doubleheaders and don't mind the man on second in extra innings. That said, there are some really good extra-inning games but not everybody wants to watch baseball for 4+ hours. I do think that there needs to be some change in the mound, either lowering it or moving it back to restore more balls in play.
At least the runner on 2nd isn't changing the nature of the game drastically - unlike, say, a home run derby. Of course with the current Jays a HR derby would work well. :)
From a pedantic view, the ghostrunner adds an unaccounted for variable to a closed system.
Sabermetrics is a discipline of linear weights and three true outcomes where individual events can be tracked and assigned value independent of each other.
While small in impact, the runner on second suddenly conjures up two bases awarded that remain unassigned and similarly muddy events to come for hitters and pitchers that suddenly have different weights than they otherwise would in this artificial setup.
I was hoping that stuff was behind us.
2 players tested positive.
That won't help the feds approve the move to Toronto.
Judge (who was at the All-Star game), Higashioka and Urshela are considered "pending" which probably means they had one positive test and are waiting on a second one.
If the US was shaped like Chile, it wouldn't be an issue. The game starts too early in the west and too late on the east.
Kirk just brings back the Rowdy Tellez inflexibility problem again (though with a better bat, but also right-handed), except it's worse in some ways in terms of roster construction since Kirk can't even give Vlad 1/2 days off at 1B.
- wOBA: 350+ - ie: great: Vlad (388), Springer, Bo, Semien, Hernandez
- wOBA: 325-349 - ie: solid: Gurriel (331), Grichuk (330), Kirk (329), Biggio (329) - found it funny how tight all 4 are projected to be in offence.
- wOBA: 300-324 - ie: livable: Dickerson, Jansen
- wOBA: 275-299 - ugh, but with great D you can live with it: Espinal, McGuire, Davis
- wOBA: sub 275 - time for AAA: Palacios, Adams
Vlad is #5 in MLB for expected wOBA, Trout #1 429, Soto 408, Acuna Jr (408 before injury), Tatis Jr (395). Funny 3 of top 5 are juniors. Freeman & Jose Ramirez are next at 386. Worst projected is ex-Jay Jeff Mathis at 219
What does this tell us? That statistically the Jays are looking damn good for the 2nd half on offense. 320 is considered an average offensive season. 20 points is worth about 10 runs per season. So if the Jays got gutsy and did the trade I mentioned elsewhere for Ramirez (Groshans, Kirk, Orelvis Martinez, Pearson - might get away with 1 less player but not easily) we'd have a second Vlad level offensive player vs Biggio/Espinal at 3B - or about 55 wOBA points vs Biggio, more vs Espinal = 2 1/2 wins with just the bat, if we assume a mix/match of Espinal/Biggio would match a guy who is probably average or a bit above on defense. 2 1/2 wins could easily be the difference this year, plus he'd be here for 2 more years. Expensive, but probably worth it. The Jays would have to swallow hard to do that deal, but so would Cleveland as it is pure possible vs doing it. Could work like Donaldson did years ago or could blow up.
This happens when the Yankees are set to play Boston/Tampa a bunch of times, so probably not a lot of good coming out of this.
Give Kirk a couple more weeks of regular starts in AAA, but Kirk gives the Jays their best lineup, whether he's at catcher or DH. I don't know where he is defensively, but he should be able to contribute either way. Once up, I think you could make him the personal catcher of someone he works well with - Manoah, perhaps - and give him the one start every five days, with McGuire and Jansen splitting the rest.
Dolis, Chatwood and guys like Barnes shouldn't be guaranteed spots in the bullpen. They are essentially reclamation projects at this point, and having 2-3 of them in the bullpen is not a viable option for a competing team. We've got a couple weeks until the trade deadline to make a decision, but I'd be ready to move on from Dolis right now.
Napoli never became an adequate catcher, much less a good catcher. Kirk may, but if he's a good catcher a few years from now makes no difference for what he brings for the balance of this season. Which I thought we were discussing.
I guess the questions become how much does the team value catcher defence? And what's the problem carrying all 3?
Cubs and Atlanta are practically even in the standings so it is very strange that one is a seller and the other a buyer. By July 31 Cubs could be ahead of Atlanta.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vladimir-guerrero-jr-is-soaring-to-new-heights/
If the bat is so good, just play that guy at DH or another position. Most C can at least become adequate 1B or corner OF since those positions are forgiving to the slowies and are much less demanding. As a human bowling ball, Kirk doesn't have that option, so either he has to significantly improve his defensive game (best done in the minors) or be so good with the bat that they can afford to DH him full time. My personal opinion is that he is a long way off from being good enough defensively to play C in the majors, but could probably be called up tomorrow as a full time DH.
Mike Piazza would suggest that it is possible. I'm not saying that the offensive bar to offset poor defense need be that high, but it certainly exists.
When we talk about catcher defense, what are we really talking about? The ability to frame well (and influence ball/strike calls)? The ability to prevent passed balls and wild pitches? The ability to throw out would-be base stealers? The ability to call a good game and maximize a pitcher's effectiveness?
Which of these traits do we believe that Kirk fails at? I'm not arguing that he doesn't fail at these, I'm just wondering what "poor defensive catcher" means in his case.
Kirk at DH doesn't maximize his potential value to the team. A catcher who can play average defence and hit at 800-900 OPS pace would be something to dream on. I don't understand people who say we have enough hitting, we don't need a hitter at C or 3B...hitting has non-linear impact the more number of above average hitters you have in your lineup. The Jays have a chance to put together an elite lineup for years since they are loaded with young players and prospects at SS and C. Like someone else mentioned on this site, I like to see the Jays turn into the Big Blue Machine
http://sabr.org/sdi/2021-07-11#ALP
Matz ranks 5th in the pitchers. (2.4)
Stripling is also above average. (0.8)
McGuire is ranked as average. (1.6)
Jansen is ranked slightly below average. (0.0)
Zunino 2.7, Vasquez 2.3, Sanchez -4.1, Severino -4.2
Vlad is slightly below average at first. (-0.9)
Semien is AL best at second. (4.8)
Bichette is below average a short. (-3.8)
Torres -2.1, Bogaerts -5.9,
Biggio is slightly below average at third. (-2.0)
Wendle 3.5, Urshela 2.3, Devers -1.1
Gurriel is ranked slightly below average in left field.(-0.1)
Arozarena 1.3, Verdugo 0.8, Andujar - 1.0, Meadows -1.3, Frazier -4.3
Grichuk is ranked last in top 25 fielder in center. ( -1.5)
Gardner -0.8, Kiermaier 2.8, Enrique Hernandez 3.9, Brett Phillips 5.0
Hernandez is ranked slightly below average. (-0.1)
Margot 3.0, Judge 2.5, Renfroe 2.5,
Maybe even more surprising is that Jonathan Davis is 2nd last in the AL.
Somehow, Grichuk's defense has been 3x worse than a 37-year-old Brett Gardner.
I've watched a lot of games this year and there were very few times I thought Grichuk in CF looked like the worst defender in the league.
Goldstein from his time with the Astros opined public WAR measurements are pretty close to what teams have, except for catchers.
Having Biggio only slightly below average at third seems wrong - he has looked horrid at times there. Ranked 6th worst, sounds more accurate. Donaldson at -1.1 vs Biggio -2.0 seems too close imo. Jose Ramirez who I'd love the Jays to empty a chunk of the farm for is at 3.0 (3rd best). A shame I doubt Oakland would do another 3B trade with the Jays to get us Matt Chapman (6.5 but just a 99 OPS+ vs career 123).
Bo 2nd worst at SS? Not a shock. Kid needs to learn when to hold the ball and not throw it.
Gurriel barely below average makes sense - his arm fixes a lot as does his raw athleticism. Suspect he'll improve over the years, but more to compensate as his body wears down, so probably will stick around 0 for this measure.
CF having Grichuk at the bottom isn't a shock - he isn't bad, but he is a RF playing CF. His -1.5 is the best 'worst' score at any position. 3 CF's in the NL are worse (Heredia, Naquin, and Carlson).
Put it all into one spreadsheet and the best score is 6.5 for Chapman, worst a catcher - Zack Collins for the White Sox -6.8, surprising the oldest manager would put up with a poor defensive catcher. That is out of 483 players. Semien is #7 overall, Matz #66, McGuire 109, Stripling 181. That is it for Jays in the top half. The rest... Jansen 258, Gurriel 281, Hernandez 299, Ryu 307, Ray 353, Vlad 361, Grichuk 398, Biggio 423, Bo 464 out of 483 ranked.
49 catchers ranked, McGuire is 14th, Jansen 31st. Realmuto who was a Jays target 37th. Ex-Jay Yan Gomes 23rd, Yadier Molina 34th (makes me question this stat a bit).
Using an overall score I get the Jays with a 0.02, average rank of 270, puts them 19th overall in defense - sounds about right to me. Best is Houston at 1.74 (rank 143), worst is KC -1.48 rank 333 on average. For the AL East no one will be surprised the Rays rank #1 (2nd overall) with a 1.23, but the Jays are 2nd best for defense (!!!!) - Yankees 3rd, Red Sox 4th and O's worst (-1.19 score). All 3 were negative for score.
Rays: Best: Phillips 5.0, Worst: Lowe -2.6
Jays: Best: Semien 4.8, Worst: Bichette -3.8
Yankees: Best: Judge 2.5, Worst: Frazier -4.3
Red Sox: Best: Hernandez 3.9, Worst: Bogaerts -5.9
O's: Best: Hays 2.3, Worst: Franco -6.3
Interesting eh? Fun to dig into and passes the sniff test to me.