Although New Hampshire didn't play, Austin Martin was activated off the IL.

Good news on Martin. Will we see Kevin Smith up with the Jays before long? Looks to me like he could be a decent upgrade at 3B. Someone would have to be moved off the 40 man, but then the Jays would inexpensively address a weakness.

The Jays don't shy away from risking the 40 man crunch as far as I can see.

Atkins earlier had praise for F Wall. Saying that he was sure or almost sure that he would be called up sometime this year.

Been doing some thinking about the previous thread on our young pitchers. Pitchers seemed to have more success in our system, hitters almost none. The new FO did quick changes on the hitting side in PD, and prospects aren't stalling out in A ball like they used to far too frequently.

There were still a few holdovers for pitching. After 2019 it was noted this org "hasn’t been one that’s had success developing breaking balls." I know Horseman was replaced in NH, not sure about other pitching coaches. But whatever skills the new PD guys have don't seem to be translating yet.

For the 40 man who is next off it?
10 day IL: Chatwood, Dolis, Borucki, Dickerson, Jansen
60 day IL: Kirk, Cole, Edwards, Hatch, Merryweather, Milone, Phelps, Yates (phew)


Chatwood - sore neck? From twisting to first to watch guys walk there?
Dolis - back soon
Jansen - should be back soon, has played only 2 games, June 29th and yesterday but both as catcher)
Kirk - has played just 2 games as well, just 1 behind the plate
Hatch (has to be off rehab at some point, then either sent to AAA or on ML roster) 6 starts already, so his rehab period must be almost over.
Edwards, Merryweather, Milone - none on rehab that I know of, so could be awhile for any of them
Phelps, Yates: gone for 2021

So I'd say Dickerson and Borucki are 60 day chances (neither doing rehab yet). Kirk and Hatch will both require a 40 man slot to open up soon.

Not been called up: Otto Lopez, Gabriel Moreno - Jays very high on both so I can't see either removed.

Others not currently on the 26 man: Patrick Murphy - a meh prospect imo but might be held, T.J. Zeuch - low K guy, not much ML success, Rowdy Tellez - super high on him last year but now..., Josh Palacios - on the AAA shuttle, Elvis Luciano - would hate to lose him, Joel Payamps, like Palacios on the AAA shuttle, Nate Pearson - frustrating but far from a release candidate.

On ML roster but might be let go: Jonathan Davis (what purpose does he serve beyond PR/defense?), Riley Adams (with Kirk, Jansen both returning, McGuire hitting, and Moreno close he could be in a numbers game), and none of the pitchers right now catch me as a 'time to cut bait' guy. Really need a 2 or more for 1 trade soon to clear up some of this roster - ideally using Tellez and a catcher even if just to get some low C level prospect who is pre-40 man stage.

Agreed John. Team seems hamstrung with 40 man spots. That problem needs to be addressed in some positive way before bringing up prospects who could be helpful.

6 of the 8 games remaining before the break are vs. LHP. Hopefully Kirky hopped on a flight to Buffalo this morning.

Allgeyer, Barnes, Castro, Saucedo, and Thornton being on the active roster means there is plenty of room on the 40 when needed.

John, Milone has made 2 rehab appearances with the Bisons. Trade or DFA candidate.

.500ish teams don’t have 40 man roster problems. By definition.

For the rest of this year and next most likely pitching is going to be the deciding factor for the Jays.

I checked SF to see what they did correctly to have such a good record. I only checked the pitching. Very mediocre record last year. No playoffs.

A DeSclafani: Cheap FA that had a bad 2020. 7.22 ERA

K Gausman: Resigned him as a FA. May or may not have been an expensive deal. Compared to R Ray's 1 year $8 mil.

A Wood: FA signing. Underperformed in 2019 & 20 but had some good years in the past.

J Cueto: 60 IL in 2019. Now doing ok. Not a FA signing.

A Sanches: FA signing that is now injured.

So as hypobole said "sign the right FAs".

Did not check the pen but noticed D Leone doing well. Signed to a minor league deal.

I checked the Mets next because they expected/hoped to make the playoffs this year.

DeGrom doing incredible. Stroman and Walker doing well, both expensive QO and FA signings.

Next year Stroman is a FA. I think Syndergaard is also a FA. Stroman will get a good LT deal IMO. Syndergaard if a FA will not IMO due to the TJ. The Mets probably offer him a decent contract but no QO IMO.

There's plenty of room on 40 man roster to free up spots.

Currently here are the injured players on the 40 man roster.

60 IL Need 40 man roster spot when activated
Alejandro Kirk 
Thomas Hatch 
Julian Merryweather 

60 IL Candidates to be DFAed directly from 60 Day IL
A.J. Cole 
Carl Edwards Jr. 
Tommy Milone 

60 IL out for the season
David Phelps 
Kirby Yates 

So require minimum 3 spots freed up to activate players from the 60 Day IL.

I would say these are the candidates to be DFAed next in order of likely to be with little to no return in trades:

Jacob Barnes 
Tayler Saucedo
Joel Payamps 
Anthony Castro 
Reese McGuire 
Jonathan Davis 
T.J. Zeuch 
Elvis Luciano 

There's also these players and mid level prospects who can fetch something in trades in order of possible return:
Otto Lopez 
Riley Adams 
Rowdy Tellez 
Santiago Espinal 
Josh Palacios 
Nick Allgeyer 
Anthony Kay
Patrick Murphy 
Tim Mayza 

Missed players on the 10 Day IL who need an active roster spot when activated:

Ryan Borucki 
Rafael Dolis 
Corey Dickerson 
Tyler Chatwood 

Any team can have or not have a 40 man crunch. Prospect hoarding teams like the Yankees end up with a crunch and lose a Garrett Whitlock for a pittance of cash. Twins lost Badooo. But bad teams like the Tigers and Orioles lost players in the Rule 5 as well. And the 1st pick in the Rule 5 was from the Angels.

Boston has the best record in baseball and doesn't have a crunch.

I’m sorry hypobole but those mediocre to bad teams were generally hoarding marginal 25 man roster players, for whatever their unique reasons were. That’s a choice not a 40 man roster problem.

Perhaps the problem is definitional. I definitely a 40 man roster problem as having more solid 25 man roster players and actual prospects (who must be protected) than you have 40 man roster spots. Choosing to keep someone like Drury (for example) on your 40 man at the risk of losing a prospect isn’t a 40 man roster problem. That’s a choice to hoard AAAA types (which many orgs occasionally become guilt of).

Here's a marginal player who got passed from org to org

2013 Selected off waivers by the Cubs from the Twins.

2013 Selected off waivers by the Orioles from the Cubs.

2014 Selected off waivers by the Blue Jays from the Orioles.

2021 Signed as FA, 3 yrs/$54M (21-23) & 24 team option

Sometimes what are thought of as AAAA types just need a few tweaks. That's why teams often hoard them.

Difficult to build a competitive team by hoarding and hoping on AAAA guys. Also, other teams are unlikely to engage in important trades when AAAA guys are involved. Haven’t done an assessment but I’m wondering if the Jays are in the situation of losing real prospects and/or major league players because of lack of 40 man space.

You forgot this step:
2014-2020: Increased average fastball velocity by 5mph.

I mean, it's fine to have some people around who you think you can fix, and sometimes it works. You generally have to churn through quite a bit of those opportunities before it happens, though, and shouldn't get too attached before they break through.

And if one of these projects is inhibiting winning games during a contending year? The answer to that one should be pretty self-evident.

I know that the occasional AAAA player turns into a player. As you say, it’s why some like to hoard AAAA types. I think it’s a low probability for play. You probably go through 20-30 of those guys before you find your diamond. The rosters of all bad and mediocre teams are filled with them. The Jays have had Davis and Panik most of the year. The Jays haven’t had a 40 man roster problem at any point this year. They could have cut one of those guys at the drop of a hat and not hurt themselves.

Teams probably think "We can fix this guy" too often. And sometimes teams can fix a Hendriks or Romano or Urshella, but your right that they often just end up with Drury's. And yes, even losing the fixable guys won't matter at the the time.

Mmmm! Could the 40 man problem that I’m sensing be position specific? Jays have AAAA pitchers and probably AAAA outfielders on the roster. But they are quite tight at catcher and on the infield.

There is no 40 man problem.
Also, I don't know if Kevin Smith is in the org's plans for 3B this year.  He's only got 9 games there this year.

.500ish teams don’t have 40 man roster problems. By definition.

It doesn't really work like that.
It's often the 100 win teams that  have no 40 roster problem.
Teams with good farm systems have often 40 roster problem regardless of the results on the field.
The problems come from having prospects with potentially their best years in the future on the 40 roster.
A team with a bad farm system will have several replacement players on the roster in AAA.
Since those guys have basically no future value they can be dropped easily.
A bad team with lots of prospects on the roster can drop a player from the MLB team, but that forces them to bring a prospect up before he's ready, potentially wasting a full year of service and development.
So they make room by trading guys for low minor prospects who don't need protection.

The thing about a roster crunch is that you have to have a LOT of meaningful prospects for it to be a problem, at the latter end of their development. 

When you get down to the 20s and lower on prospect lists, there really isn't much difference between my Taylor Saucedo and your Taylor Saucedo.  These are guys who, if they hit, they are Kendall Graveman with a new pitch. 

I actually think this org is intentionally keeping 40 man slots open for prospects, and will continue to shuffle through your Davis / Bergen types at the back of the roster.  once in a while, one those guys becomes Reese McGuire.  big deal, no offence to Reese.

From Future Blue Jays:

Gabriel Moreno had surgery on his fractured thumb this week. Recovery usually takes 4-6 weeks, sometimes longer to get full strength back.

Uh, I know I'm dense but does the title of this report reference anything, like a movie quote or something?

There is a Lady Gaga song titled Alejandro. I looked up a line from that song.

According to Wikipedia the song reached number two on the Canadian Billboard charts and number seven in the US.

A song that sure seems to have been cribbed from the much superior "Fernando" by the always underestimated Abba.