I think money is the important factor. One big and long contract is ok. The last 2/3 years of Springer should not harm the payroll. If they add any more expensive 5+ year contracts they could be in trouble for the years after the 3rd.

Moustakas & Votto have put Cincinnati in a bad rebuilding position for example. They probably are not fooling most of their fans.

In Toronto the fans support a winning team and abandon a losing team it seems. If our farm produces good players then they may be unable to keep them if we cannot afford them because we have bad contracts. Trading these good players is ok with me because it should result in a lesser payroll which is the goal.

Trades need time to evaluate. We traded a healthy Olerud and a recovering Donaldson. The Olerud trade IMO was bad but the Donaldson trade had the positive of getting him out of town.

I don't know what will be added the rest of this off season. I expect 2/3 year contracts for non elite FAs.

They still need to replace Panik/Shaw, but not with a big and long contract since they have Groshans, possibly Martin or Martinez. Who covers if Bichette is injured again? Otto Lopez?

Not many pitchers worthy of a big and long contract either.  1 or 2 years seems preferable.

I figure the Jays contract wise, can handle pretty much anything for 2-3 years, it is after that we hit the Biggio/Vlad/Bo getting expensive years (and hopefully contract extensions). The Dodgers without Price (took 2020 off) and Stripling still had 5 starters with 7+ starts with ERA+'s of 120+. Wow. Only Kershaw was over 26 last year of that group too. So young and good. I'd put a call in for Price if they want to dump his contract. His ERA+ was 113 for Boston in 2019 after all. The Dodgers owe him $16 mil a year for 2021/2022 and he was pretty much just contract weight the Red Sox put into the Mookie Betts deal. So no strong ties or anything, I suspect the Dodgers would be happy to trade him. Their OF was very solid in 2020 but 1B and 2B look weak based on the starters listed by BR. But again, Chris Taylor has been a super-utility guy who hits so he might take over one of those slots, while Edwin Ríos has hit very well at 3B/1B. I could see them wanting Tellez though so they'd have a good young 1B with power. That would free up a spot at DH (put Vlad at 1B full time) for Hernandez then put Grichuk in RF full time.

I figure the infield backup will be Santiago Espinal. However, I fully expect the Jays to grab someone off the free agent trash pile to fill in that role instead, letting Espinal play everyday in AAA instead, to be ready to step in if an injury happens.

No question right now starting pitching and 3B are the top concerns. But the management team has shown they will be patient to get the guy they want and risk not getting someone at all rather than act rashly. So I expect nothing until well into February unless a really good deal shows up. Thus Bauer is unlikely to come as he demands a high cost in dollars. I'm hoping the Jays figure out a way to dump Grichuk's contract on someone.

Short-term 3B, good SP, and perhaps another reliever are probably what the Jays are looking at now. I'd be fine with going free agency route. Something like Frazier/Franco and Paxton/Tanaka/Walker would be fantastic. Fangraphs has Jays with the 4th best team in baseball according to WAR right now so I don't think the Jays necessarily need to make big moves now. I also think they need to be flexible with pitching and as of now, would like a Ryu and mix-it-up rotation with lots of bullpen pieces throwing lots of innings.

Ranked 4th best in baseball probably means behind NYY, LAD and one of SD/NYM I guess. When I evaluate these opinions I find I am wrong a fair bit. So we are probably/definitely 7th best at worst which is still impressive if true.

Eephus - an SNL / late night talk show fan? Mike Shoemaker the producer has ties to those, but I'm pretty sure you meant to write about Matt Shoemaker, the pitcher who played for us last year :-)

So where are the Jays at?  Projected WAR via FanGraphs/ZIPS - 2.0 is viewed as a decent regular.  I mention if another system listed has a big difference.  I'm using their choices for position btw (as I don't see Vlad at 3B unless the Jays fail to find anyone)

Will Tellez hit more like the 2019 version than the 2020 version. I don't know, but I'm hopeful.
will Gurriel hit more like the 2018 version than the 2019 and 2020 version. I hope not.

The short length of the 2020 season devaluates young players who took a step forward.
However, hitting is contagious, so having Springer's bat in there can only help.
The 26 roster will limit the number of platoons the Rays can have.
For the Yankees, it's more about predicting health.
Boston still has a solid lineup but the pitching does not look great.
Is Ottavino their setup guy now?

John Northey, the Fangraphs numbers I see are different from yours.  They are here.   The biggest single difference is Fisher who is projected to be 0.1 WAR rather than 1.1 WAR.  It's the difference between an emergency call-up from the minors and a decent backup.  

It's the difference between an emergency call-up from the minors and a decent backup.

And assumes that Fishes does indeed possess the ability to catch a routine fly ball, recent evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.

My subconscious clearly has its own agenda. Where's the fly ball? It's sleeping with the Fishes.

Interesting. MLB offered the NL DH and 30M to the players in exchange for pitch clock, electronic strike zone in spring training and expended playoffs. PA said no.

This feels like a window into the next CBA.

Right now, the players get a portion of the gate revenues during playoffs.
You'd hope they're confident in attendance next fall.
However, I'm not sure how they'd squeeze the extended playoffs.
Less travel?

The player committee is pitcher heavy, right?
Maybe they don't care about the clock and the robo-umps.

If they Jays don't add a quality starter before the season starts I will be very disappointed - for a team expecting to be contender, the starting rotation is very suspect.

I am not sure if you have discussed this.
https://fansided.com/2020/11/21/vladimir-guerrero-jr-dropping-ton-weight-offseason/

If that guy gets down to 220-230, it would be addition through subtraction :)

The Jays need starters. Walker and Paxton are my choices.

Do they dare offer a minor league deal to Osuna? Can he play here?

Hi Mike, those appear to be Steamer numbers not ZiPS. Check Fisher's page and you'll see the projections there. I seriously doubt any projection system that says if given the same playing time that Fisher will be worth as much as Gurriel, but like I said it is interesting to look at different systems.

I think there's a good chance the Jays end up with one of Paxton, Tanaka, or Odorizzi. Not sure they will be in the Bauer market after signing Springer.

With Kluber, Taillon, German, Severino and Cole the Yankees are formidable.

With Glasnow, McKay, Patino, Yarbrough, and Honeywell the Rays have a ton of elite upside. They have McKay, Honeywell and Patino, all three high upside talents in the same category of Nate Pearson.

Jays have Ryu, Ray, Pearson and after that they have a ton of depth pieces similar to depth of Rays and Yankees.

By my count the Jays need minimum 2 more starters of the #2/#3 slot category, minimum to be at similar level to the Yanks and Rays.

Odorizzi, Walker, Paxton ... signing 2 of those players will get it done.

Signing Bauer and sitting on the depth for the rest also gets it done and puts the Jays in the enviable position of having two legit aces unlike the other two teams.

The more I look at it the more I expect them to not get Bauer but instead get Paxton and Walker, then try to dump Roark on someone. A Cubs trade where the Jays eat a couple of their bad deals in exchange for Roark & Grichuk (Kimbrel & Heyward) could work as long as the Jays get Bryant back. Heyward is owed $21 this year, $22 each of 2022/2023 but did hit well last year (129 OPS+) while being a solid defensive RF most of his career. Cubs reduce their net payroll for the next 3 years (critical as they claim to have lost a lot), Jays get an unneeded OF but frees up the ability to trade another one for immediate pitching help. Kimbrel before going to the Cubs was one of the best closers in the game, has 348 saves in his career, but has been crazy wild the last 2 years (7 BB/9 last year) while still K'ing a lot. Owed $16 mil this year and a $1 mil buyout of his 2022 option ($16 mil otherwise). This wouldn't be too nightmarish for the Jays, an increase of about $30 mil this year, $10 mil each of the next 2 years, but would give a better RF option and a project in the pen with a super-live arm. Plus of course, solve the 3B issue for 2021 very nicely. Odds are the Cubs would be willing to include some cash to reduce the blow this year. Trade simulator says it would take $35+ mil to balance it out (or prospects from the Cubs). Still an interesting idea if the Jays can't get a 3B replacement as the Cubs seem determined to reduce their payroll in 2021. Fun to play around with this stuff.

Also, there's a very good read at this link (never heard of this writer or site before);

https://www.pitcherlist.com/toronto-might-not-be-done/

He ranks the future surplus value of potential trade targets as follows:

Corbin Burnes: $71.1 million

Sonny Gray: $29.7 million

Tyler Mahle: $31.3 million

kyle Hendricks: $37.5 million

Trevor Story: $33.7 million

Kris Bryant: $2.8 million

Nolan Arenado: $-43.7 million

Kyle Sealer: $-9.1 million


There's a lot more in the article that you should go and read, including free agents and some other trade targets.

I expect them to not get Bauer but instead get Paxton and Walker, then try to dump Roark

That would work for me. I’d just sign Walker now and then see which of the others you can pin down.

brjas - given I haven't seen many rumors on Walker other than the Jays I'd hope he signs here. There was one for Seattle but they appear uninterested. Detroit as well. Seems odd as you'd think teams would be very interested in him. A 2-3 year deal for $10 mil a year I'd be willing to look at if I was the Jays depending on their medical reports on him. If he is 100% healthy then he should be easily worth more than that (108 lifetime ERA+, 161 last year in his 11 starts between Toronto and Seattle).

As to 3B - so many options. Simmons for SS is a big rumor right now (Phillies and Reds also serious). If Bichette can move over to 3B or 2B (2B he played 30 times in the minors, never at 3B) that could work out. Biggio at 3B mainly, but then a super-sub (3B/2B/LF/CF/RF/1B/DH) once Jordan Groshans is ready to take over. Of course, they also could trade for someone, or sign someone else. Simmons would be sweet though with that amazing defense that is so far beyond anything we've seen here since the days of Alex Gonzalez #1 or Tony Fernandez.

Scottt - I think the biggest reason the players are rejecting pretty much anything the owners offer right now is the collective agreement ending after the 2021 season ends. If you expect a war (and the players would be fools not to) you do not help your opponent build up for it. Expanded playoffs = tons of extra revenue for owners, minimal for players.

I'm hoping the two sides talk all summer so most of the side issues can be resolved and only a couple of big items are left for the November/December negotiating period before it all grinds to a halt (officially up on December 31st I think, at which point I expect owners to formally put in a lockout). I suspect free agency and arbitration to be key sticking points. Owners will also want a hard salary cap, or at least a harder luxury tax. Players want the opposite of course. I expect a full international draft, significantly higher minimum salaries, and other items like that to be used to get expanded playoffs, and maybe an earlier arbitration (back to 2 full seasons) with something done to reduce incentives to flop to the bottom and get top draft picks (I'd do a draft where the best non-playoff team gets #1 overall and worst overall gets the last pick before playoff teams pick, thus making every win count for a club - if you suck for a decade, well, then you are the Rays from 1998 to 2007). Wouldn't be shocked to see 2 more teams as part of it too (big plus for players, somewhat of one for owners short term) or an expanded roster (as high as 28 per team) to allow a harder luxury tax to come in. I just hope it isn't stretched out so we miss a chunk of 2022.

With Kluber, Taillon, German, Severino and Cole the Yankees are formidable.

1 of these is not like the others. Cole pitched 73 innings in 2020, the other 4 combined for.... 1. It was a closer match in 2019, with Cole at 212 innings and the others totalling 228.

They've got upside, for sure, but all 4 also have serious question marks.

Reducing revenues is not going to lead to players gain.
On the contrary.

I don' t see anyone asking for a harder cap. It's already treated as a hard limit.
I imagine the players will want the cap raised and the lessening of sanctions tied to signing restricted free agents.
Overall, the QO seems to work well, but there are exceptions.
I don't know about an international draft. Scouting seems pretty uneven on that side.

The 2019 players pool money was just shy of 81M. A share for the winning team was well over 300K, so not minimal money for more than half the players receiving it. More games means more gate revenues.

Personally, I prefer no NL DH. But, I'll believe it when the first game is played.
It seems there is more noise about players being kept down to prevent them earning a full year than over the super-2 status. I expect no new teams over the next CBA. That's why Dombrowski went to Philly.

Tanaka likely heading  back to Japan.

"With Kluber, Taillon, German, Severino and Cole the Yankees are formidable."

Nobody will argue that. Your comment about this rotation applies equally to the Jays (Ryu) and Rays (Glasnow)

I don't know if this is a different article, John, but The Athletic has a two part survey asking questions of player agents. A lot of them were pessimistic about the owners and players working out a new CBA without a work stoppage. It will depend on what happens with this season and there is already much friction on how to proceed with it.

One notable thing is that they asked agents what was the worst ball park to play in. Oakland and Tampa Bay were the top 2, but one agent noted that Toronto was on virtually every player's no-trade list. He acknowledged that Toronto is a great city but the combination of being in the AL East, Canadian taxes, having to move families to another country, and the turf field to play on makes it harder to attract players.

Don't forget about Deivi Garcia. He could be another good starter for the Yankees this year.

the PA ought to be pushing for significantly more for players in the first 3 years of their careers

This will sound cynical, but I ask in all sincerity and because I haven't followed the history very closely. How often does the PA push for things that will benefit its future members rather than its existing members (like a minimum wage raise, earlier arbitration). And how often, if ever, does it argue on behalf of the minor leaguers?

"Don't forget about Deivi Garcia. He could be another good starter for the Yankees this year."
You're right, he had a very decent start to his career, I would say stronger than Pearson's.

The MLBPA's advocacy on behalf of minor leaguers has been weak to non-existent. But minimum salaries and arb eligibility directly affect members of the bargaining unit. Failure to advocate wouldn't be about selfishness but rather about lack of preparation and lack of guts. They need someone who draws inspiration from Marvin Miller.

One of my problems with the MLBPA's bargaining committee is that it is littered with players whom I doubt have the skill set to be successful negotiators while the owners have more professional negotiators - I wouldn't be surprised if the owners bargaining unit craft inducements to appease players on the MLPBA bargaining unit while winning the negotiating war.

Expansion is not a player item. The owners don't want to add more teams when the revenues are down.
The only way I see it happen is if new teams are asked to drop huge sums, billions literally.

I don't trust Florida with respect to Covid-19.
I'm not sure how they'll manage those long bus rides between the Florida east coast and the Florida west coast.

I'm less worried about work stoppage.
We've just seen owners perfectly happy with a 60 games season.
So, it would seem that the players don't have much leverage.

The DH offer included "a willingness to rule in favor of two players on a pair of service time grievances".
I'd be curious to hear more about that one.

"One of my problems with the MLBPA's bargaining committee is that it is littered with players whom I doubt have the skill set to be successful negotiators while the owners have more professional negotiators - I wouldn't be surprised if the owners bargaining unit craft inducements to appease players on the MLPBA bargaining unit while winning the negotiating war."

Yup. Players have continued to make stupid choices for small wins. I.e. the draft pick compensation for free agents. It drove down the cost of a handful of players a tiny bit but the players wanted it as a major piece. Almost all their bargaining has come down to trying to maximize how much free agents can get but they didn't understand that baseball was going away from paying replacement level players big deals so they were pushing for something that didn't really matter. What they should be pushing is salary floors so teams like the Pirates and Cleveland need to spend money somewhere. That would mean free agents would get some decent deals. They should also be pushing when players are getting paid earlier in their careers. Earlier arbitration or FA. Also, need to get around the teams playing games with service time and maybe make service time less complicated. As a positive for the players, they did turn down the expanded playoffs. I'm not sure they understand how much this would kill salaries long-term but I hope they do and hold strong.

One change I would like to see made, which is probably unlikely, is starting a player's MLB service time as soon as they are added to the 40 man roster. Example: Moreno was just added to the Jays 40 man roster, so his service clock in that scenario would begin in 2021 even though he'll start the year in AA. This accomplishes two things: 1) on average it should lead to players reaching free agency at a younger age, and 2) will incentivize quicker promotions.

Another one I'd like to see added is a buyout for non-tenders. Example: If there are three years of arb, then a player who is non-tendered in arb1 will get a $300k buyout. Non-tendered in arb2 will get $200k, and in arb3 will get $100k. Those numbers could be more or less, just using that as an example. Would that make teams think twice about non-tendering a player? Maybe not, but at least it would give the player some type of leverage/bonus in the arbitration process, as minimal as that may be.

There is nothing wrong with free agency. Teams shouldn't be obligated to pay big for a player's decline. It's the first six years of control that is the issue, but the MLBPA doesn't seem to care much about that for some reason. They care even less about amateur/international talent, which is why MLB has been able to cut costs in those areas without much resistance.

A new thread, another new thread hijacked by politics...

I think it helps if you picture the players as radical right wing capitalists.
They don't want communist measures like a higher minimum salary.
They want to hit free agency earlier.

There is a cost to developing players.
That cost is completely on the owners.
It's a cost that the owners have been reducing by dropping short ball and drafting more college players.
So maybe, college players could have fewer years of team control.
Time spent on the 40 roster is already limited by the rule 5.
Players on the 40 roster get paid more. If there are other constraint, teams could just keep their reserve roster around 32 to reduce those. Not a win. Lots of players spend time on 40 rosters and end up have basically no MLB career.
Guerro, Bichette and Biggio all have their 3 options intact and didn't spend a lot of time on the 40.
 

I see players as liberation in nature. They want to be paid for what they do. Owners are socialists - they want all costs to be 100% controlled by a central government (commissioner). I suspect a salary cap/floor revenue sharing agreement like the NBA and NHL have will happen at some point, but lord knows when. I think right now the union is at its weakest since the 60's as they are run by an ex-player, not by someone with normal union training. Clark sees things from a players POV which is 'I can do anything, pay me based on that'. He forgets how vital the minimum salary is for 90% of players who won't last long enough to get a multi-million dollar deal. Too much focus on the George Springer type, not enough on the Santiago Espinal types who will bounce up and down then get dumped without making millions (thus will need to get a 'real' job).

Ah well, in the end as fans all we care about is being entertained. I'd like fan favorites to stick around as long as possible but spare parts can bounce around. So something that puts a cap of some kind on annual salaries like the NBA has, but redistributes revenue so the weakest players get something as well. I know the owners will never base ticket prices on payroll, they will claim to but it is all supply/demand - how do you maximize revenue from tickets. If players are paid $0 or $200 million a year the ticket equation stays the same. See US college football for proof of that.

Springer would have signed for something similar with the Mets.
It's a bit frustrating, but the last few CF got overpaid as well.
The Realmuto deal involves 10M of deferred money.
No options or opt outs.

I, for one, believe the market will continue to trickle down.

Ozuna is the top guy left. Less of a market.
Next is Gregorius. I'd really be interesting if he's up for playing third base.
Then Turner who probably goes back to LA.
Semien is still there, but I'm worried about his bat.
Simmons, not even a year older than Semien, a better defender and a better hitter if you exclude Semien's 2019's season.
Pederson, Cruz, Bradley
Kolton Wong who could be a Super Utility, maybe. Not a lot of power, but he hits left and gets on base.
LaStella, nobody talks about this guy, but he can hit from the left and play third.
Molina

On the pitching side:
Bauer, Odorizzi, Paxton, Walker
Wainwright. 15 season with the Cards. You think they'd just bring him back because.
I think Colome is still out there too. Pretty quiet. Vastly outdid his peripherals last year.
Porcello, Hamels, Melancon, Archer

Jays getting Semien. Reported first oddly by Carlos Baerga but confirmed by Heyman now as well. He's a great risk and his ability to play multiple positions is also super useful for the Jays. The team just keeps improving.

The Jays have signed Marcus Semien to a one year, $18 million deal. Great move. I would assume he's moving to 2B or 3B, but either way, there is a lot of upside there, and very little risk.

1/$18 which is great. He had a terrible start to last season but apart from that has been a very good player for the last few years. Zips has him as a 3.9 WAR player. He hasn't played 3b or 2b in years but it's down the defensive spectrum so I have faith he can.

It's been reported that he has agreed to move to 2b as primary position.

what about pitching?

trade coming?

I'm neutral until I hear the terms, but I really hope the Jays didn't give Semien more than a pillow 1/2 year deal. His $13M salary last year seems like an overpay. I would have preferred taking the money and throwing Baurer a record 1-2 year contract.

1 year / $18. There are no bad 1 year contracts and we have added a good player. What's not to like?

Can't say I like it.
His career OBP is .305.
He can cover shortstop if Bichette is injured, but he looks like the 9th hitter.

"Can't say I like it.
His career OBP is .305.
He can cover shortstop if Bichette is injured, but he looks like the 9th hitter."

12.7 WAR in the last 2+ seasons.

Sounds like he will play 2B based on reports written on Twitter. He broke out offensively in 2019 but unfortunately 2020 was only 60 games so not enough time to see if the turnaround was legit. He started the season very poorly, but came on strong in the final month and playoffs. This is a move with a solid floor but a potentially high ceiling, and very low risk as it's only a one year deal.

OPS of .706/.892/.679.

The Orioles have signed Galvis for 1.5M. There's a real possibility that Galvis has a better year.
However, Semien has upside.
I don't like Biggio's defense at 3B.
A left bat would have been better. How many lefties left in the AL East? Montgomery and Yarbrough?Here's hoping he doesn't hit at the top of the lineup.

"The Orioles have signed Galvis for 1.5M. There's a real possibility that Galvis has a better year."

Come on! Galvis hasn't had a better year than Semien since 2015 and even then it was basically the same. In the last 3 years, Galvis has 4.1 WAR. Semien has 12.7. That's more than 3X the value. Semien is a starter on a playoff team and Galvis is a backup for a non-contending team. It's like saying "Why sign Springer, Jake Marisnick might have a better year"? Yes, it's possible I guess but extremely unlikely.

For reference, Semien is 12th in baseball in WAR over the past 3 years tied with Arenedo and ahead of guys like Bellinger and Freeman. I don't expect anything like that but even the 3-4 WAR I expect would be amazing. Honestly, for that price, even 2-2.5 WAR would be fine. Current Jays plan is to play Semien at 2B and Biggio and 3B. Only weakness Jays have right now is a lack of lefties in the lineup. You can live with only 2 though (Tellez and Biggio) if the lineup is that good.

Semien has hit better than average only once in his career.
His oWAR seems high compared to his OPS. I'm not sure why.
He can run a bit, but his stolen base/caught ratio isn't good.
I'll have a better idea after watching him play a few games.

Semien looks like a really good get to me. No bad one year contracts and he was a monster in 2019. I don't think anyone expects him to get back to that level, but outside of that year he's been a consistent 95-100 OPS+ hitter with defensive versatility. Last year he was hurt to begin, and then really came on later, and was dynamite in the playoffs. There's the chance for significant upside here.

Davidi is reporting that, as of now, Semien has agreed to play 2B and the club sees Biggio as the 3B.

The 1/18 deal seems OK. The main reservation I have is if Bauer ends up signing for 1/36 or 2/72 for another team whether that 18 would have been better spent on him. If this is where the Jays stop (or stop because they can't make another deal) then I'll be disappointed. I'm also unsure whether this is an upgrade, but we'll never know because Vlad back a 3B won't happen now. Another low OBP addition to the lineup is hard to get excited about... then again it'll be a nice surprise if the 2019 version of Semien shows up.