What does Jays lineup look like if Vlad is at3B? Something like? (IMO, one of the top lineups in baseball)

2B-Biggio
CF-Springer
SS-Bichette
DH-Teoscar
LF-Gurriel Jr.
3B-Vlad Jr.
1B-Tellez
RF-Grichuk
C-Jansen

The Big Boy offer we've all been hoping for.

Great stuff.

Apparently we trumped the Mets 6/120 offer. Feels good. We're a big money team with low payroll and that's how its done.

Fantastic.

The surplus value is that we're instantly more attractive to other FA - so get out there and use that surplus value, Messrs Shapiro and Atkins. One more Big Boi signing and we are ready to rock.

Me I put the vet at #3 to take the pressure off the kids.

Bichette
Biggio
Springer
Vladdy

From my earlier article on career length the Jays have a 46% chance roughly of Springer not being active in year 6 (checking what has happened historically for 3 time all-stars) .  32% of those who make age 30 are retired by age 35 (ie: you get 4 out of 5 seasons), 46% by age 36, 59% by age 37. So you can see the risk skyrockets for each year you add to the deal after 5 years.  But I guess this is like the Ryu situation where the extra year was needed to get over the finish line.  Still, I like the odds given how well he is still hitting and that he plays CF right now (RF in a few years most likely).  His most similar on BR is interesting - Eric Davis - who was amazing but by 30 was falling apart (tons of injuries), but from 34-36 actually had an amazing last gasp (307/386/549 for a 143 OPS+ over 302 games in those 3 years net of 7.4 WAR which is pretty much all of his WAR from 31-36).  He kicked around until 39 but wasn't very good.  #2 is David Justice who was decent through age 36 then retired - 16.3 WAR over those 6 years (31-36) but he was never as good as Springer  (5.1 WAR peak, RF/LF).  #3 Tony Conigliaro whose final year was age 30 due to injuries.  None of those guys looks very similar in career path to Springer so I don't think we can learn a lot from them.  Still interesting to see.

As I mentioned in the other thread, there is talk from Rosenthal and now Heyman that the Jays could sign Brantley as well. The roster fit there is harder to figure out. I guess if Vlad goes back to 3B, then they could fit everyone (including Brantley) into the lineup with one OF on the outside looking in. Something like:

CA Jansen
1B Tellez
2B Biggio
SS Bichette
3B Vlad
RF Hernandez
CF Springer
LF Gurriel
DH Brantley

That would be an absolutely stacked lineup. Another option would be to move one of Hernandez or Gurriel in a trade for a SP and keep Grichuk in RF.

I find the Brantley coming here still interesting. His 120's OPS+ the past 3 years should get him a decent contract, but he is a LF/DH only now but is a 4 time All-Star including the 3 years before 2020. This is a very good player. 2 years $28 mil would be a solid deal even entering age 34 and that is what MLB Trade Rumors thinks he will get. Then 2 OF'ers could be traded to get a 3B. Hernandez and Gurriel Jr could easily be a package deal then, which would weaken the team a bit (I'd rather keep one of them over Grichuk, but contract situation makes them a better deal for someone else). Hrm...

3B is the issue. Who could they trade with?

• Cubs for Kris Bryant (very weak in LF so some potential there plus appear to be going into a rebuild mode with their trades so far, but his last year before free agency).
• Colorado for Arenado (massive contract) or Trevor Story (SS, free agent after 2021), very weak OF with Pillar in CF and the LF/RF's being a 96 and 103 OPS+ as they need to do a rebuild with SD & LAD in that division.
• San Fran for good ol' Evan Longoria. Still solid on offense and defense, but nearing the end entering his age 35 season. But they have a strong OF in the corners so I don't see the deal happening unless a 3rd team is mixed in (always possible).

I'm sure there are lots of other possibilities including signing Justin Turner (but would probably require a 3 year deal for a guy entering his age 36 season probably which would be a poor idea).

Of course, all of this also means the Jays have now lost their 2nd round pick and another top free agent (Bauer or Realmuto) would cost just cash and a 3rd round pick. Of course, even with this signing the Jays are still only at $105 mil based on figures at Cot's so they have lots of room to work with if they want Bauer or Realmuto or Turner or another expensive player. Fun times.

Excellent. You're always going to have to dig deep to land a top player, and a s with Ryu last year I feel like they've chosen the right player to do that for. LeMahieu is much more likely to turn into a pumpkin, Realmuto would put them in a position of having to sell low on some of the young catchers, and Bauer is all manner of unpleasant.

I like the Chatwood and Yates acquisitions too. It's a interesting shift from the bargain bin to the sale rack. The bin has served them very well (Bass, Cole, Dolis, Hudson, Oh), hopefully whatever scouting and analysis was going in to picking those guys will translate to this slightly higher tier.

Springer was the right guy to get.
The Jays have chased a few centerfields in recent years just to see some other team overpaying.
So, the outcome is not shocking.

I don't get the Brantley talks.
I get that he's a favorite of Shapiro and a friend of Springer but Tellez seems fine at DH and isn't a platoon like Brantley.
Teoscar and Gurriel are also friends of Guerrero.

The top need now is a thirdbaseman. Maybe a super utility guy. Probably a left bat.

Might want to wait until the deadline to really fix the rotation.
This will probably be another year in which pitchers hit the IL frequently.
I think the pen is more than done.

I'm really excited with the Springer signing as he was the guy I'd hoped they'd get.

No way would I trade Teoscar though. He's still cheap and looked like he was coming into his own as a power hitter last year with 16 homeruns in 50 games, a .919 OPS and much better plate discipline. I can see him as great protection behind Springer in the batting order.

They are loading up on the same kind of player. It makes for a wonderful theoretical offence but for a lesser team than one would expect. If they can convert one of the corner OFs into a starting pitcher and sign up JBJ to play centerfield, this deal will probably work out well. If they don't or can't, I think we are going to be disappointed.

Now get Bauer and trade Gurriel and/or Tellez for a 3B.

Awesome. The guy I hoped for and am pleasantly surprised they could beat out the Mets, although payroll and GM issues may have helped.

They do need a number 2 pitcher and may need to go the trade route. Bauer would be great but would put a lot of salary budget into 2 guys. A trade of one of the fielders makes sense. Grichuk of course is our preference but doubt he has that much value unless part of a strong package. I’m not sure who of the other 2 I’d trade. Replacing Hernandez’ defence with Grichuk’s would be an improvement but we’d lose his bat. Vice versa for Gurriel. Depends on trade partner’s preferences I guess. Ideally we keep them both but we really need pitching.

Third base needs filling but I don’t think they need to blow wads for what should be a temporary fill.

Some analysis:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-jays-put-a-springer-in-their-step/

I'm willing to be if the story fully comes out from Springer on why he came here the Mets GM mess will be a big factor - hard to negotiate when the team doesn't know who is in charge, even harder to know what will happen there when a mess like that happens (obviously he'd want to be with a contender).

I could easily see the Jays trading Hernandez due to his being into arbitration already and the old 'is this the real level for him or was 2020 a career year' question. My gut says 2020 was a career year and if someone wants to value him at that level then trade him. Even if real his defense is so poor it eats away at that value. I suspect Gurriel has more value in the market right now though with his under $5 mil a year deal for the next 3 years plus 1 more year of arbitration after that before a free agent. Grichuk is good purely as salary weight if the Jays get someone with a big contract coming back - ie: to help balance it out. The trade simulator lists Grichuk as -$12.6 in value, Gurriel as +$26.3, Hernandez +$32.5 so Hernandez has the greatest value on the market based on that. Bryant is listed at +$2.8, Longoria -$41.5 (wow, they are really down on him), Arenado -$43.7. Seager in Seattle is -$9.1, Rendon in LAA is -$43.1 despite his 151 OPS+ last year and 156 the year before ($38 mil a year contract is why).

Hard to find a good candidate for a trade at 3B. Lots of talent, but either too far from free agency to be tradeable, on too good a team, or has too big a contract. Turner as a free agent is ideal but he wants 3+ years and is 36 (ugh) and loves LA. Maikel Franco isn't bad and is also a free agent but would be a pure placeholder until something better came along. Marcus Semien some teams are starting to look at for 3B due to how bad the market is for solid defensive shortstops so he'd be possible, but not ideal. I'm very curious what the Jays see as their targets at 3B right now as I can't believe they plan to keep Vlad there, nice as it would be from a lineup POV. I suspect #1 focus is now on starting pitching (Bauer or trade).

The Jays are very deep in good position talent at the ML level so injuries can be handled better. Goins played a lot to cover the Tulo & Travis injuries. He produced well for his expectations but not at the Tulo/Travis expectations.

The pen usually sorts itself out. It too is quite deep in potential. The rotation is definitely not set. Behind Ryu competition will produce something reasonably reliable.

Most of the players are still V young so ageing is a minor issue. Nearing the end of Springer's contract there could be Budget and talent/position issues if he has to do more DH.

Ironically, they are very deep in prospects who can play third base and don't have much in the outfield.

There's no way Pearson starts 30 games.
However, they have a full rotation in AAA who can step up.
This is going to be fun to watch and they'll be ups and downs, but the offense should be quite good.

Our 1980s window was built on young talent from the farm. The talent was sustained by trades for young players D Ward and farm additions D Wells, J Olerud.

This rebuild/window is quite similar.

Curious to see what Realmuto gets now.
Should be in the same ballpark, but will probably be less.

Maybe the Jays can swap an outfielder with the Mets.
They were after Springer because they have too many left bats in the outfield.

I feel like the 3B answer is Kris Bryant, to give Martin a year, while the SP answer is David Price. (Maybe you could send Roark out in that deal, as the Dodgers would still save a bunch of money).

Even as contenders and with good attendance (>2.5m), I don't expect the Jays payroll to exceed the 150-180m range -some may argue that the owners are wealthy and should spend more, but this is my expectation - I expect the Springer contract will force choices to be made in a few years - will be interesting. I saw a list of outfielders who have signed for $100m plus going into their age 31 seasons, not many happy endings.

I'm not expecting Springer to last in CF more than another 2 or 3 years but I think he'll probably be a good defender in RF for the last few years of the deal which is still value. Defense is also much less important than it has ever been with fewer balls in play than ever before and teams relying on shifts more and more so guys can last longer in positions. Jays are going to be a very fun team for the foreseeable future. Now have a very good major league team (I see 84-88 wins as is, but a couple of moves like adding a starter and a 3Bman would push them to the 90 win range). They have a great system with 5-7 top-100 prospects. After a few years of suffering and a couple of decades of suffering before 2015, it's a good time to be a Jays' fan.

It could be that Springer will be decent in CF for two years (ideally spelled for some games/innings by someone like JBJ), decent in RF for two years, and more of an average or fourth OF for two years.

It would be better for Springer and the Jays if Rogers had already constructed a new stadium with natural grass. The team should monitor his health and not try to extract every last ounce of his value in the first couple of years of the contract.

Biggio is much better at second.
LaStella is an obvious lefty third baseman who would only command a 2 year deal.
Profar is another left bat who could handle third base.
Gregorius also, probably, if you pay him enough.

I would not trade for a Story/Bryant type unless the cost is low.
And by low I mean, an extra catcher, a pitcher who can't crack the team, some prospects outside the top 20.

The last couple of years on Springer's deal may look bad, at least relative to his salary, but that's the price of free agency. It's almost always going to take one more year than you feel comfortable with. It happened with Ryu last winter, and Springer in this one. The Jays were obviously willing to take that risk, even though their 2023-25 seasons should be better than their 2021-22 seasons. I would agree that I don't think Springer is going to be a CF by 2023, whether it be because of Martin, or maybe someone from outside the organization pushing him to RF. Ultimately though it is going to come down to how long he can be an effective hitter.

Reddit says that the Jays have agreed to a deal with Brantley. Obviously not confirmed, and I don't really understand it. Then you have to trade Tellez and one of your OFs? I could see a trade for Hendricks and Bryant making sense, but you really need to shed Grichuk if you take on their salaries, and the Cubs wouldn't be interested in him. I'm not sure how much value Tellez will have to other clubs either.

I really like the idea of the jays acquiring Michael Brantley's bat.

Using excess ML talent and the farm system to acquire quality pitching is probably the next step.

If it's to trade Grichuk, I'm OK with that.
I don't know if that means Guerrero at 3rd base, at least half the time.
I like Tellez and Hernandez's bats and Gurriel was ranked in the top 10 left fielders.

Hmmm.... if Brantley signed then could the Jays move Gurriel to 3B? An interesting idea I saw elsewhere. Not an ideal move, but he was at SS/2B for awhile, and the angle of the ball would be similar to LF. If it is Gurriel or Vlad at 3B then who knows which is the worse option.

Gotta figure something is going to give here - adding 2 great outfielders (via the bat) when you already have 3 solid ones seems crazy when DH/1B is fully occupied by young hitters too. But the Jays need to improve wherever they can.

Biggio and Tellez are our only LH bats, if you want to compete you need better balance and that is why they want Brantley. He will also bring better discipline to the lineup.

Either way this is a big get for the Jays and the front office gets a top man two years in a row. This is a legit line-up with Springer in the middle.

On a side note I wonder how much the implosion of the Mets front office yesterday played into this.

I can see Gurriel given a shot at 3b. We need to acquire a starting pitcher at this time much more than a 3b. Vlad at 3b is also a possibility.

Apparantly the Brantley deal is done.

Yep. Seems like Brantley may have agreed to sign last night, in sort of a package deal like Rosenthal alluded to. No official confirmation on that yet.

J Mayo will let up know about our draft pick loss and Int'l cap loss.

Hazel Mae just Tweeted that the Jays have signed Brantley to a three year deal. That was quick. Rosenthal was spot on about the package deal with Brantley and Springer.

That's 4 additions to a 39 man roster - I expect the trade announcements before the deals become official.

Brantley is a great hitter and a lefty which the Jays can use but now definitely need to find a trade. Teoscar or Gurriel likely to be traded either for pitching help or even prospects. A trade with Cleveland makes sense as they have no OFers. Something like Teoscar and good prospect for Zach Plesac?

Brantley and Springer may help Guerrero both in terms of tutelage but also taking pressure off him to produce.

Trade Gurriel, Jansen, Manoah and Groshans and go after Story and sign him to 10/250 along with Marquez or take Arenado with Marquez.

The good thing about this winter so far is that aside from the draft compensation lost with signing Springer, it's been all money used and not assets/prospects. I'm guessing that changes after Brantley's signing, assuming they end up moving Gurriel or Hernandez because of the log jam. I don't consider Grichuk an asset at his current contract/performance, so if he's moved then even better, but he likely has little to no trade value.

Brantley and Springer makes this lineup legitimately good, and Martin should be pretty close to the bigs. This is going to be a good offensive team for years. Now just need to fix the rotation.

I don't think Guerrero's English is good enough for anything like that.
It's not like he'd need a huge vocabulary to answer a couple of questions in an interview.

Hopefully, it's Fisher and Grichuk who loses out.

They can't trade Jansen now and that's 4 times what the Mets gave up for Lindor.

It's fine to overpay for free agents, but you can't give away prospects or a 10 year window becomes a 3 year window with a complete teardown at the end. 

"The good thing about this winter so far is that aside from the draft compensation lost with signing Springer"

And because of the new rules it's the 54th pick which normally will get you a decent prospect but rarely a player who becomes a major leaguer and the Jays will keep the 19th pick which should be a very good prospect so this is a huge difference.

I don't think Grichuk gets traded because his value is pretty neutral and he can cover CF (otherwise, you would need Jonathan Davis on the roster). I think the Jays probably trade one of Gurriel or Teoscar who have a fair bit of value and can be a piece in a big trade to get a 3Bman or long-term starter. Fisher is gone for sure.

Jays now have 9 hitters who had a WRC+ of over 110 last year and 7 with a WRC+ of over 125. That is an offense!

Fisher, Palacios, Luciano, Waguespack. Pick 3, DFA them, try to get a non-roster prospect in a trade. The 40-man roster is now significantly better than it was earlier this week.

Grichuk is too expensive to be all that desireable in trade, and he's probably too expensive to be a fourth outfielder. So I would assume that one of Gurriel or Hernandez will be dangled for a starting pitcher, or whatever useful shiny thing they can bring back. I don't know that it makes ahuge difference which one they keep but I'd rather see Gurriel hang around myself.

I'd also like to see him take a few ground balls at first base (where he's played exactly 11 innings in the majors.) Tellez has had no platoon split to date, but the law of averages gets most of them eventually. (That's assuming of course that Vlad returns to 3b, at least in 2021.)

It's pretty clear to me that the Jays will add a frontline SP at some point. You don't make these types of all-in moves and then ignore the need for quality starting pitching. Bauer or Castillo - someone of that calibre.

I expect they will add another infielder as well.

Hazel Mae has retracted her statement that Brantley has signed, says the two sides are still talking.

Apparently the Brantley deal is not a done deal. Premature announcement by Hazel Mae.

Those are not really all-in moves because they only used some available payroll and a second round pick (late one).
The farm is intact, the payroll is not maxed out.

The bullpen moves are only 1 year deals. They'll have to start over next year.
Brantley is a great platoon bat, but he sits against lefties and he's expected to lose his edge fast.
Hence the predicted 2 year deal.

The offense looks great, but they'll have to develop their starters.
We should see Hatch and Thornton at some point, anyway.
Maybe they give Guerrero a shot at 3rd and make a trade if he can't handle it?
Montoyo likes to use everyone anyway.
We'll see soon enough.

The 2015 team had whoever in LF, Pillar in CF, Groins at 2B, Smoak at 1B.
This has fewer holes but doesn't quite match the Donaldson/Bautista/EE trio.

I guess I'll be the lone dissenter here. I really want no part of any of the cheating Houston * on this team but the Jays don't have a problem with it as Dave Hudgens is still the bench coach and Ken Giles pitched last year.

"I guess I'll be the lone dissenter here. I really want no part of any of the cheating Houston * on this team but the Jays don't have a problem with it as Dave Hudgens is still the bench coach and Ken Giles pitched last year."
I completely agree and want no cheater here either. Thankfully, I don't think anyone expects Springer to be cheating as a Blue Jay.

I suspect any delay is due to the Jays trying to complete a trade at the same time - don't want an overflowing roster for any longer than necessary.

Kind of surprised this thread is 100's of messages yet given how big a deal it is to sign Springer. Guess we've all discussed it over and over again for so long that now that it has happened we are all out of words to type.

Springer is a nice addition.

The Jays still need one more good starter. I would love to see Walker come back and take a flyer on Paxton. Bauer would be incredible, but that would be a contract that we would regret someday.

Looks like Brantley is gone:

@MarkBermanFox26
MLB source: #Astros reach an agreement with Michael Brantley on a two-year deal worth $32 million.

So, we get scooped on basically EVERY free agent who gets a competitive offer elsewhere.. Wonder if fixing our stadium (real grass) would help?

We have no idea what the Jays offer was to Brantley, though. Or maybe the offer was contingent on a trade that didn't happen, so it was pulled back.

Do we know that the Jays offer was anywhere near that? That's more than i'd have guessed for Brantley, maybe Houston outbid them.

Huh, weird. Wonder if he failed his physical with the Jays or something. Otherwise going for 2 years instead of 3 seems weird. Ah well, not a perfect fit with Springer here already plus the 3 guys in the OF it was getting very, very crowded. Would've been nice, but was more a bonus than a must have.

Meh on Brantley. A great hitter but would have forced a move elsewhere so fine if he signed or not. They need to go spend that money on another pitcher and a 3Bman. Something like Walker/Paxton and Semien would be amazing.

I didn't see the fit with Brantley, but still disappointing since he's a great hitter and exactly what this lineup needed. Oh well. Move on.

For what it's worth, I checked out the Fangraphs projections for salaries.

They had Springer about about $22-$23 million a year for five years, and Brantley between 2 and 3 years, $12 to $15 million, depending on if you use the crowd or Craig Edwards.

(They had Yates at an avg of between $5 and $8 million)

I’m also not overly disappointed. Would rather spend the money on a 3rd baseman and pitching, though Brantley’s bat would have been juicy.

Clearly they’re still aggressive so we’ll see what develops.

Glevin agreed on that - Walker/Paxton (or both, not out of range by any means) and Semien would be nice. I'm hoping more for Walker/Bauer and Maikel Franco (a 100 OPS+/0 dWAR 3B - should be cheap, but useful for 1 or 2 years). Kolten Wong would be very nice at 2B (gold glove level mid 90's OPS+) with Biggio going to 3B (not ideal on defense, but if he knows he is there pre-spring he would work hard at it and from what we've seen you should never count him out when it comes to hard work).

So new lineup....
3B: Biggio (lets put him there for now)
SS: Bo (he hits well there, leave him there)
CF: Springer
RF: Hernandez
DH: Vlad
1B: Tellez
LF: Gurriel
CA: Jansen
2B: Wong (or Semien or whoever they get)

Btw, no way I'm penciling in Vlad at 3B until he actually plays there in spring. I expect one of Hernandez/Gurriel/Grichuk to be traded by spring for pitching or infield help. If a trade happens then 3B (or SS or 2B) could be pretty much anyone anywhere in the lineup. A 1-3 year commitment is the most I expect the Jays to give to anyone who isn't a pitcher at this point unless they go nuts and trade for Reardon or Arenado (both have insane contracts and are with teams that have low odds of making the playoffs in the near future - doubt either is coming here but one can hold out hope - use Roark & Grichuk as contract weight and get a decent pitching prospect or ML guy with the guy coming back here, maybe send a C prospect or two there to give their fans hope that it wasn't 100% salary dump).

The best part of the Springer news is the messaging about ownership's investment in the club. As for the actual move, it ticks a number of boxes (at least in the next couple of years when Springer is likely able to play CF). It does leave the line-up tilting hard to the right so the addition of someone like Wong would definitely make some sense (both to balance the line-up and add some additional OBP skill).

It's going to take me a long time to warm to the idea of cheering for Springer but, at least its not Bregman.

Fangraphs projections were low. MLBTR's were closer. They had Springer at 5/125M.
That would have been on the money had he gone to the Mets.

Maybe Brantley was trying to get more money from Houston.  They had him at 2/28M

It's not really a question of hard work.
Biggio played 2B through high school and college and the minor leagues.
He doesn't have a great arm.

As long as they are looking at guys who came from Cleveland, Bauer is still available and might not required that many years. His desire to pitch on 3 days rest is intriguing.

I'd lean toward a right handed guy since they already have Ryu and Ray.
Walker would be fine. Tanaka could chat with Yamaguchi.
Odorizzi would proably take several years.

Looks like most of the salary projections were on the low side at both MLBTR and FG.

I am very pleased with Springer, and not too displeased with the loss of Brantley, given all the moving chess pieces it would have required.

How much we boost the starting rotation should be guided by something we don't know, namely, how close the next wave of starting pitchers from the minors looks to be, and what their likely upside will be, in the eyes of the franchise. For example, I keep wondering whether some of SWR, Menoah, Merryweather, SRF, Pardinho and Luciano have the potential to round out a rotation of Ryu and Pearson at a high level, starting later in 2021 or by the start of 2022. If so, we need high upside but short term stop-gaps, like Kluber would have been. If the club thinks they have many gaps to fill until 2023, then a Bauer type solution may be desirable.

In the same vein, do we know how close Groshans and Martin are to earning starting roles (at 3B or OF, respectively)? Whether we go for a Semien or a Wong, or even someone on a longer-term, like a Suarez, would need to be governed by that information.

The absence of a full year of AAA/AA data makes it harder for us to project what they can do by when, but it may also make it harder for the Jays to get a lot back for an up-and-coming minor leaguer, when the other team can't know much more than we can.

Lastly, why do all the pundits outside of this esteemed body seem to assume that Roark will be part of next year's rotation - hasn't he proven what he is (not) capable of? Can the Jays not find a team willing to take him off their hands? I am intrigued by some version of the Price/Roark swap idea, for the two-way, short-term solution it seems to offer.

If Brantley had failed a physical, it would have come out. I'm fairly confident it wasn't that.

We have no information as to whether the Jays even offered 3 years, from what I can see online. It seems very possible though, I just don't think it's certain.

I wouldn't be surprised if Houston offered a higher AAV over 2 and the Jays offered more over 3 and Brantley chose to go back to a club he was comfortable with and believes he can make up the difference in the third year. I base that speculation on basically nothing though, so I could be off-base.

Don't mind missing out on Brantley. That's the B level type signing i would complain about before. And he's an awkward fit in our lineup.

But Bauer is the play, even if we must overpay.

Agreed. Jays have the swagger and dollars now to go after Bauer. Ideally they garb him, dump Grichuk for whatever salary relief they can get, and then land or trade for a stopgap 3rd basemen.

grjas - I'm with you. Screw this middle of the road player stuff the Jays have done so often from 1994 to 2012 with the exception of Roger Clemens (now if they had spent more to fill in the roster instead of wasting money on Garcia and others of that ilk who knows). That got us zero playoff appearances. Stars are what you need - as their offyears are still solid generally while any drop off from meh guys makes them unplayable.

Ryu was star quality at a discount last winter due to injury fears. The Jays may still regret it due to that but with that one playoff appearance he made it worthwhile (yeah, he sucked in that game, but without him no playoffs). Bauers worst fWAR (better for predicting future than bWAR) since 2015 was last years 2.5, otherwise 2.6. So even at his worst in the past 5 years he was worth 2 1/2 wins as a starter. In 2020 no one made 2 1/2 fWAR, in 2019 Stroman was the only pitcher worth that much, in 2018 no pitcher here was, in 2017 Stroman, Osuan, Happ, & Estrada were (huh, forgot so many did well that year). In 2016 it was Sanchez, Stroman, Happ, and Estrada (playoff team so makes sense). So 9 pitchers over that 5 year span for the Jays, while Bauer on his own did it 5 times. I'd say he is pretty reliable vs anything we've seen here since Halladay with peak values of 5.8/3.3/2.5 the past 3 years (the 2.5 being in 60 games of course, so multiple by 2.5 for an estimate of 6.75 over a full season).

So Bauer is a star quality, as is Justin Turner (still All-Star quality at 35). Those guys are worth chasing. Tanaka is close. Walker you get to fill in the roster, and if he pitches like a #2 great, but don't count on it. My ideal starters now are Ryu/Bauer/Walker/Ray-Stripling sharing a slot/Pearson - the rest can fight it out for bullpen slots and the #6 starter. If Bauer wants to go every 4th day so be it - make it happen (I figured it out once or twice and it can be done without a major disruption to the rest of the guys, just the odd extra day rest for them). Walker goes back on the market in 2 years lets say, Ray next year to open up space for kids.

Interesting - the Twins signed JA Happ for $8 mil (same as the Jays will pay Robbie Ray) but unlike Ray Happ has had positive bWAR's every year since 2012 (the year the Jays first acquired him). Ray probably has a higher ceiling at this point, but also is more likely to suck. Ah well. Hopefully Happ does well for the Twins but doesn't do well when they face the Jays :)

Yes, let's overpay for Bauer now too, and then I think we have a shot to surprise some teams in October.

Yeah Ray is definitely a risk. But I’m hoping two of the following three will live up to potential- Ray, Stripling and Pearson- and then we’d have a good 3 and 4, and only need a 2 or 1a. Pearson of course will have to be used more sparingly but still could be very impactful if healthy.

I personally would be all in on Bauer, and I’d probably still trade for another guy.

Apparently, Jays are talking to Tanaka (from Japanese twitter). I'd be very happy with him. A risk obviously but is always good and has been good in the AL East.

Of course, Tanaka throws a splitter.

The Jays has the highest percentage of splitters thrown in the league last season at 5.7% after targeting Dolis, Yamaguchi, Walker, Shoemaker and Anthony Bass. Kirby Yates is another splitter guy now in the fold.

Dude's arm has been a ticking bomb for years now. No thanks.

Walker has a spit-change. It's basically a 2-seamer.

Dolis, Shoemaker and Bass were very good.
Yamaguchi had trouble getting a grip.

The Jays were after Hendriks who got a massive overpay.
4 years on a reliever is playing with fire.
They are still after Hand, even after signing Yates.
Can't complain.

I think they're looking for a right hander, so no talks with Happ or Paxton.
The Dodgers have entered the Bauer picture and they are still the preferred destination for Turner.

I imagine that signing a starter would push Stripling to the pen, which might mean letting go of Yamaguchi.
Same deal if they sign Hand,
Just let the guys with option do the long relief.

On a one year deal Tanaka would be fine, but I'd wonder about him facing the Yankees.
If they get Hand, can they skip the starter? Would the bullpen be good enough to carry whoever 2 times through the opposing rotation? Guys like Hatch, Kay, Thornton, Zeuch, Merryweather. That would seem like a Rays strategy. Could we see openers?

I am guessing veterans like Ryu, Ray, Roark want to throw the 1st pitch of the game. How long Ray and Roark last is unknown. Hopefully 4/5 innings. So Pearson and Stripling could have openers.

I am thinking number of pitches thrown is how they will do it for Kay, Zeuch, Hatch etc... So stretch out to 65-75 pitches. This is a lot of pitches for the strategy of "throw as hard as you can". For 30-45 pitches maybe the "throw as hard as you can" is ok. How many days off does the pitcher doing these strategies?

Ray wasn't upset at coming after Shoemaker and Roark needs to put numbers up before saying anything.
Ryu likes to throw on long rest. Pearson doesn't have that many innings in him.

Hopefully, the defense is improved and the pitchers don't walk as many.

I think the Jays are fine with going with a more Rays-like approach. Ryu starting and going 6-7 innings and the other 12 pitchers all pitching when needed: Tandem starts, openers, long relief, etc...I think it can work with lesser pitchers pretty well unless someone like Ray or Pearson establish themselves are a legitimate starter.

Fangraphs has their Jays prospect list up.

As it stands, the Jays got the biggest piece in Springer. Also got Ray and Yates.
The Mets traded for 1 year of Lindor and went after McCann instead of Realmuto. Not the same player. They did retain Stroman but that wasn't their decision. They also got Trevor May.
Yankees retained LeMahieu and took a chance on kluber.
Padres got Kim and loaded up on pitching through trades.
White Sox went big on Hendriks and got Eaton.
Astros retained Brantley.
Angels signed Quintana and a number of lower profile guys.
Braves inked Morton and Smyly.
Twins signed Happ.
Nats, Lester.

Still feels like half the free agents are still unsigned and we're January 21.

They threw Manuel Beltre at 19.
They still have Kevin Smith at 14.
Joey Murray all the way up to 17.

They have Hector Perez at 37, just before Roither Perez and Naswell Paulino.
I feel he's about to be outrighted.

Merryweather's assessment reveals that he was imposed a fourth option year.
I still wouldn't bother throwing him in the rotation but he could be up and down in the bullpen as needed.

Fangraphs has been the low man on Jays prospects for a while. Not sure why, but they always seem to be. To me, the system looks very good still with almost 10 excellent prospects and some guys with upside lower down as well.

The things I find interesting:

They rate Jackson Rees as a finished product with a 50 fastball that tops at 95mph and a 70 curve. They think he's a middle reliever that could debut this year, thanks to his deception.

They give Trent Palmer a 55 splitter. Would need to develop his slider to start.

They can't really grade Zuleleta but he's back from TJ and tops at 96mph.

They also consider a finished product with a 60 fastball and a 50 curve.

They say Zeuch has replaced his curve with a cutter which they rate as his best pitch.

Hobbie, Harris, number 34 is a minor rule 5 pick from the Yankees.
70 fastball that tops at 101mph.
He's apparently working on a splitter which could make him a bullpen option.

Curtis Taylor, number 35 is one of the guys they got from Tampa for Sogard.
Rested from a ULC strain while dodging surgery, fastball tops at 98mph but seemingly still raw.

Palacios and Espinal didn't make the cut.
Neither did Castro--because he was dumped by Detroit--Winckowski and Gonzalez (the other guy they got for Sogard) even though they say he got great numbers in the low minors.

They think the last draft was impacted by finding money to sign Martin and that they might focus on college guys after losing a pick. Seems to me everybody is focusing on college picks, especially if those that draft late.

"This system will probably end up near the very bottom of the farm rankings".
That's a curious take. Because Hatch graduated? Really?

Fangraphs have the Jays as a close to bottom system. The main reason that I see is that they raise doubts on many of the top Jays prospects.

They suggest Pearson could end up as a reliever.

They note that SWR had lower velocity last season.

Kirk is high risk because of his size.

They imply Groshans hitting hasn't developed as much as others.

Orelvis Martinez, at #6, is described as high variance due to his contact skills.

Alek Manoah could end up in the bullpen.


Basically Fangraphs has attached a high risk level to most of the Jays top prospects. Even though they have Pearson at #1, it seems like Austin Martin is the safest bet.

Prospect forecasting is very uncertain so I don't get worked up about these rankings. It's up to the players to deliver on their potential.

Seems strange tbh.

The only one I really agree is especially risky compared to other top prospects is Groshans, and that's only really due to a lack of track record.

You can tell objectively that fangraphs is biased.
They found 46 prospects to review in the Red Sox system but only 39 in the Jays system.
That's because the Jays traded away a bunch of low ranked prospects to get Ray and Walker and Boston got a lot of lottery picks at the deadline. That's mostly deadwood.
Scouting is a bias activity. This guy has put on great number but I don't like him.
Eric thinks the Jays are not good at developing players.
Whereas the Yankees, Cleveland, Boston, Detroit which has had success in a long time all are.

Yeah, but at the same time I got a smile out of the Josh Donaldson comparison.

" Still feels like half the free agents are still unsigned and we're January 21".

I looked at one list of the top 50 free agents and only 21 are signed. I predict some will still be unsigned when spring training starts.

I haven't seen it mentioned, but with the talk of Trevor Bauer still being a target of the Jays, I wonder if he and George Springer could exist on the same team. Bauer was very outspoken about the Astros cheating scandal, but, of course, that's a little hypocritical when he has talked about using pine tar to get a higher spin rate on his pitches.

I think that it's an excellent system, and am not worried at all about the Fangraphs comments.  Time will tell.

Using pine tar when everyone in the game uses it is hardly comparable to using video footage to signal which pitch is coming. Trevor Bauer is one of the few pitchers that did not use pine tar for years until he challenged MLB and nobody did anything about guys like Gerrit Cole using it. He said forget it, I'll use it and we'll see where my numbers end up, and he has a good case of numbers just under Gerrit Cole.

Bauer with pine tar complaining about it and then saying 'screw it' reminds me of how Bonds reacted when everyone said 'so what' to McGwire roiding up so he said 'screw it' and destroyed the record book. Find it funny how the media and fans who cheered on McGwire and enabled his cheating became so butt hurt about Bonds after that. I clearly remember them finding creatine in McGwire's locker (now banned) and the reporter was blasted by the media for looking in the locker (!) while everyone else went back to cheering on Sosa & McGwire's home run race. To be honest, I'm shocked that any player didn't go nuts with it after that.

Now with pine tar or whatever pitchers use to get a better grip is finally out in the open after Cole got his $300+ mil deal and Bauer now will get a big deal as well, one has to figure in 10 years we'll be hearing all kinds of sermons about how horrible these guys were for doing it and demands they be banned from the HOF over it. Even though it was an open secret and a nudge nudge/wink wink thing.

Probably because Bonds is black.

Orelvis Martinez  MLB:Fangraphs

Hit 55:45/50
Power 55:Raw 45/50 Game 30/45
Run 50:45/40
Arm 60:50
Overall 50:50

They seem to agree on the overall, but not on the specifics.

In 2019, in Bluefield, he hit .275 with 8.6%BB and 17.8%K for a wRC+ of 150.
In rookie ball, Kevin Smith was hitting .271 with 5.7%BB and 24%K for a wRC+ of 104.

I don't think we've seen contact issues yet.
I think it's more appropriate to say he doesn't like his swing.

Some of the best trades the Jays have made were for under valued prospects like Hatch and SWR.
Guys that are over valued are good trade bait. I like to believe the Jays don't have any but I'm biased.
He refused to rank Espinal calling him replacement value, however a guy like Florial was still 8th in the Yankees system last year and he's been stuck at the A+ level since 2016. Can't wait to see where he ranks now.

I equate pine tar use with illegal curves to the blade of a stick in the NHL or oversized goalie equipment. The NHL disciplines for illegal curves so nobody does it and natural ability makes the difference. I wish MLB would just ban illegal substances and not rely on managers asking for an umpire to check during a game. It's unfair for players that do not want to cheat to have their numbers suppressed because prevalent cheating is allowed in the game.

Bonds, Bauer, Cole etc...they all didn't need the substances or drugs but were put in a position to fall behind other players if they didn't do what everybody else was.

So silly. To think of all the social change happening in the real world, Cleveland changing it's name and women entering GM roles, but MLB can't keep the game clean.

Either ban pine tar for all players and enforce it or don't ban it. Simple.

I'm more skeptical of Bauer than most because of how awful the central was last season. I think Bauer had something like (in 11 starts maybe?) 1 start against a top-10 offense and 5 against a bottom-10 offense. He's a good pitcher, but if he's more like I think (3.50-3.90 ERA type rather than elite starter), then he's going to be massively overpaid.

I believe Bauer is open to pitching for Houston.
I could see him exposing a cheating scheme as soon as he learns about it, though.
Would be funny.

Dalimon5 - I am 100% on board with you there. Enforce or don't bother with the rule. Maybe change the rule so clear substances can be used, but anything that makes it harder for players to see the ball cannot be used (IE: no making the ball pitch black with pine tar). IIRC it was put in place as a safety measure after poor Ray Chapman was killed by a beanball. From Wikipedia: "The sound of the ball striking Chapman's skull was so loud that Mays thought it had hit the end of Chapman's bat; he fielded the ball and threw to first base." Of course, back then they tried to play a whole game with one ball and there were no lights. Quite a bit different from today.

Bauer has been a regular in the rotation since 2014 and has 2 excellent seasons - He's too inconsistent to pay top dollar IMO and while he seems very smart, he's regarded as very tough to coach as he only listens to himself.

In addition to raw money Bauer said his concerns are...

"I want to win. I want to be with a team that has a winning culture. I want to be there in the playoffs. I want a chance at a World Series. That’s one thing that really drives me. I want a chance to pitch every fourth day instead of every fifth. That really drives me. Going along with that: how’s the medical staff? How’s the technology — the information that’s available on the coaching staff? What’s the culture of the organization like?"

The Jays are building that winning culture now, and by being aggressive clearly are trying to win now and keep prospects so they can win tomorrow. My question is will the Jays offer that magical every 4th day thing to him? I hope so as that could be fun and enhance his value overall to the team, especially in the early years.

4 man rotation for Bauer, 5 for everyone else by time through rotation....

1. Bauer - Ryu - #3 - #4
2. Bauer - #5 - Ryu - #3
3. Bauer - #4 (extra day) - #5 - Ryu
4. Bauer - #3 (extra 2 days) - #4 - #5
5. Bauer - Ryu (extra day) - #3 - #4
6. back to 1

Obviously off days add to that for all, but that way you'd get over 162 games 41 starts for Bauer, 33 for Ryu, 32 for #3, 32 for #4 and 24 for #5. I'd put that up as a win all around. Ryu gets an extra day every 20 games, as does the #3 and #4 starter. #5 is mostly in the pen (ideal). Sounds like a great plan to me if Bauer's arm can handle it (Stieb did in 1982 as did Clancy, Leal not as good but he was just 25 and not as good as the others in the first place other than Leal they had quite a few years left after that and Leal had 2 1/2 years left in the majors plus a few in the minors).

Bauer sounds high-maintenance. What happens if the team has an off-year? Does he start complaining, calling out his teammates and coaches, demanding a trade? Part of me would like to see the Jays sign him. Part of me says, “pass.”

What are the odds he'd melt down after a bad inning, take the ball and chuck it over the center field wall when the manager comes to pull him, then get traded a couple of days later for a pretty okay package of players for a second time. Fifty-fifty?

"I'm more skeptical of Bauer than most because of how awful the central was last season. I think Bauer had something like (in 11 starts maybe?) 1 start against a top-10 offense and 5 against a bottom-10 offense. He's a good pitcher, but if he's more like I think (3.50-3.90 ERA type rather than elite starter), then he's going to be massively overpaid."

First off, Bauer pitched to a 1.90 ERA last year. Do you really think he shaved off nearly 2 runs off his era because he pitched in the Central? Does that mean Luis Castillo is really a 5.21 era pitcher? Bauer has a weak era in 2019 but what about 2018? This speaks nothing of his underlying peripherals which are elite.

Regarding emotion...really? You guys have short memories. Bauer is no different from many other elite players. Remember Donaldson yelling across the diamond from his dugout telling the Angels to suck his ****? What about Bautista showing up the umpires over close calls? Sure, David Price and Edwin were stand up characters, but are we really going to say "pass on Bauer" because he plays the game with emotion? Frankly if you're willing to get on board with Springer then there's no reason to stop at Bauer because he's high maintenance.

"What are the odds he'd melt down after a bad inning, take the ball and chuck it over the center field wall when the manager comes to pull him, then get traded a couple of days later for a pretty okay package of players for a second time. Fifty-fifty?"

Probably the same odds of Springer cheating again.

Anthony Castro DFA.

To make room for Chatwood.

A reliever for a reliever.

A few more to come.

"First off, Bauer pitched to a 1.90 ERA last year. Do you really think he shaved off nearly 2 runs off his era because he pitched in the Central? Does that mean Luis Castillo is really a 5.21 era pitcher? Bauer has a weak era in 2019 but what about 2018? This speaks nothing of his underlying peripherals which are elite."

He made 11 starts last year and half were against very bad offenses. Even then, his XFIP was 3.25. Please stop trying to pretend his 1.73 ERA in last year's messed up season means anything. His 2018 was his best full season but also had an extremely fluky HR/FB rate of 6.2%. His career average is double that. Again, he's a good pitcher. I just don't think he's elite. ZIPS has him at having a 3.60 ERA and Steamer at a 4.08 and that's exactly the range I see him in with still more downside because of coming to a much better division. He is miles away from the DeGrom/Cole sort of pitcher but I think a team will pay him like he's close to that.

I agree with Glevin's take on Bauer, and at the risk of being told to stick to sports, also would vote a hard pass on adding birtherism, misogyny, online bullying, and more to the locker room.

Fangraphs' averaged projections has Bauer at 4.4war/32gs, and that uses both runs allowed and fip wars.

That's the exact same as Springer's 4.4 per 650pa projected.

In both cases you get an excellent top of the roster player, though neither is a real MVP/CY type.

But Bauer projects better than Ryu, and those 2 are both legit top rotation guys. You stick Ray and Nate behind them and that's a nice rotation with no major question marks.

“I wish MLB would just ban illegal substances and not rely on managers asking for an umpire to check during a game. “

Agreed. Not only would it level the playing field, it might also make the game more interesting rather than watching strikeout after strikeout.

There is clearly some risk with Bauer but it’s hard to find a pitcher without some. He’s the best FA available and I’d certainly applaud the FO if they can make it happen, but there seem to be more possible suitors for him than for Springer. So May be a tough fish to land.

A tier 2 pitcher or two is still workable while providing the cash to take a run at another Tier 1 in late summer or next fall.

"at the risk of being told to stick to sports, also would vote a hard pass on adding birtherism, misogyny, online bullying, and more to the locker room."

Thanks for bringing attention to this, I didn't know any of that stuff about Bauer. Do you think it's ethical though, to judge players that share their personal beliefs/views when the others do not? Example, you don't want to sign Bauer because of his beliefs, but you would sign him if he didn't publicly share them, right? This viewpoint necessarily assumes that every other player that doesn't publicly share their view is in some way of a belief system that you can support. Seems ignorant to me to judge some and pass a blind eye on the rest.

"Do you think it's ethical though, to judge players that share their personal beliefs/views when the others do not?"

Yes. I believe when people show/tell you who they are, believe them and act accordingly.

That's like saying you won't eat poison if you know there is poison in your food, but you will eat it if unknowingly if someone doesn't tell you it's poisoned. Alright.

Melt down after bad innings? Old fans here like me remember Dave Stieb doing that. He was the best in baseball and he knew it. But the Jays had a horrid pen (to put it mildly) and often he got poor run support. He'd show rage whenever a player made a poor play behind him too. In 1982 he had 3 games where he threw 9+ innings (once 11 allowing just 1 run) and got no decision. It was ugly often. I'm sure Cy Young voters being idiots back then didn't help (82 they handed it to Vuckovich who was nowhere near as good as Stieb that year 2.8 WAR vs 7.6, 1 more win plus Stieb having a lot more losses cost him it - todays voters would've handed Stieb a unanimous win). I can live with a prima donna pitcher who acts like a jerk all the time as long as he is a top 5 in MLB type.

"That's like saying you won't eat poison if you know there is poison in your food, but you will eat it if unknowingly if someone doesn't tell you it's poisoned. Alright.

Yes, I will eat food that I don't have any reason to think is poisoned - where were you trying to go with that? To fix the analogy to fit your logic, you would prefer I eat the food I know to be poisoned because despite all outward appearances to the contrary I don't know that the other food available to me wasn't also poisoned, and doing otherwise would just be foolishly wasteful.

If your responses were a round-about way to the "ends justify the means" that's an opinion you are entitled to whether I share it or not. See how that is done without calling someone ignorant?

Where was I trying to go with it? Trying to show you that by calling out Bauer because of his personal views without assuming that every other player could have the same or similar views is naive. What's the purpose of passing on a player because of views he may have which every other player may or may not have?

Most insiders know at least 70% of pitchers use pine tar. Managers don't call it out unless it's egregious, like that huge glob on Pineda's neck, because managers know their pitchers use it as well.
It seems obvious Bauer didn't use it until last year when his FB spin rate went up about 400 rpm. If there is a huge crackdown he'll probably go back to the pitcher he was prior to last year. But most pitchers throughout the league will see their stats take a hit as well, so he should still be comparatively elite.

This goes without saying but it's completely fine not to want to sign Bauer or like him, without using political or personal reasons for explanation. I'm not against you for not wanting to sign Bauer, I can respect that, I will respect your opinion, but not your reasoning.

Nice thing with Bauer is to check his fWAR - it is based on more than just ERA+ (which is pretty much what BR uses to make WAR along with innings). For 2016/2017/2018/2019 he claims he wasn't using as much as in 2020 and his fWAR was 2.6/2.8/5.8/3.3 - all very solid with one year being elite (6th best in MLB in 2018). That suggests even if they really banned it and made it effective he'd still be solid, and maybe spectacular, especially if everyone had to stop and it is 70%+. If it is being ignored by MLB and the Jays aren't using across the board he might help push the rest of the team into using it and move everyone up a notch. Much like Canseco in the 90's as he wandered team to team preaching PED's (I don't buy for a moment that IRod wasn't juiced given Canseco was on the Rangers in his 2nd year and his 3rd year saw his first time over 300 for wOBA and his 4th a big jump of over 50 points - could just be he was naturally getting better but I put a big question mark there, he didn't hit as bad as his first 2 years until his final 3).

If everyone is cheating, is it still cheating?

If a player doesn't share his views, then I have no idea one way or the other. BUT, I'm not implicitly agreeing with their viewpoint by cheering for them either. If they do share their views and I find out, then I kind of have to evaluate what that means to me.

Of course, it depends on how innocuous or egregious their viewpoints are, and how forcefully they share them as well. If a player once posts "I don't agree with that economic theory", I don't really care. Lots of people seemed to care about Osuna's non-baseball life, or Kurt Schilling's tweets, or John Rocker's statements, just as an example.

Not saying Bauer's anywhere near that level (I haven't checked it out myself), but for me personally, there is a line. It's a pretty wide line, and not that easy to cross, but it is there.

I try my best not to know athletes views on things. Athletes aren't known for their brains and sophistication. I'd rather not know.

With their personal views - they can believe whatever they want. The line for me is when you advocate criminal activity or commit criminal activity. Cheat baseball rules? There are punishments for it. You get away with it? So be it - there is a guy in the HOF who admitted to use of the spitball throughout his career. That is why I am fine with Clemens & Bonds getting into the HOF. Guys caught multiple times I'm good with sitting on the sidelines for years and years though. I am good with Rose being out of the HOF forever as gambling has always been a baseball death sentence. But if you are a fan of Trump? Don't care. You beat your wife, part of that horrid mess on January 6th? I'd prefer to see the Jays dump you ASAP as they did with Osuna. Put a homophobic statement on your body like Yunel Escobar did? Same punishment - send him away ASAP. Let another team with no morals have him. But cheating like Bauer does? Who cares. Be outspoken like he is? Again, who cares, might make him more fun during slow stretches.

Ah well, to each their own. We all have our lines in the sand. They can change as we age (at one time I'd have been a lot harder on PED guys). But in the end we each have them. If some here don't want Bauer here that is fine. I lived through Rickey Henderson being a key part in 1993 and Jose Canseco being a Jay in 1998, I figure I can survive a guy who loads up the baseball and can be a jerk at times - as long as he is a solid 1/2 starter of course :)

Hmm... now that Michael Brantley is an Astro should the Jays chase Jackie Bradley Jr.? Would jump the OF defense - you'd have a solid CF then, move Springer to RF, ideally keep Gurriel in LF and trade Grichuk for a bucket of balls, Hernandez could get something good one would think. Then the OF would be very strong on defense and the infield could be too with a defense first guy at 3B, or the team could probably survive Vlad at 3B knowing most fly balls would be caught.

UZR/150 career (2020)

• 1B: Tellez 2.2 (3.1); Vlad -13.8 (2020 only season)
• 2B: Biggio 1.8 (4.6)
• SS: Bo 0.3 (5.9)
• 3B: Vlad -14.6 (dnp)
• LF: Gurriel 1.4 (3.5)
• CF: Bradley Jr 6.3 (5.5)
• RF: Springer 2.9 (-60.9 in 53 innings)
• Other Jays: Springer CF 1.8 (-4.0); Grichuk CF -3.0 (-11.8); Grichuk RF 4.3 (-0.7); Hernandez RF -8.5 (-9.2);
• Other free agents: Wong 2B 5.9 (7.5); Marcus Semien SS -0.3 (4.8 - first 3 years terrible, most recent 3 4.8 or better); Didi Gregorius SS 2.3 (-1.5);Justin Turner 3B 0.3 (-3.5); Andrelton Simmons SS 17.0 (4.0 his first year sub 10 ever); Tommy La Stella 3B -4.3 (74.9 in 34 innings) 2B -3.4 (-11.2); Maikel Franco 3B -1.9 (3.3)
• Trade Targets: Trevor Story SS 2.7 (5.3); Nolan Arenado 3B 7.2 (15.5); Evan Longoria 3B 8.7 (16.4)

Some not realistic targets there, but fun to check their defense. Just to dream if nothing else. Phew Vlad was terrible at 3B and at 1B - talk about a born DH. Put him at DH, sign Bradley Jr, and sign/trade for one of the better fielding 3B and you'd have a full team above 0 on defense with no holes anywhere on defense. Dang that would be nice eh? Semien's numbers overall were a lot worse than I expected, Gregorius isn't good enough imo to bother with, Simmons is tempting even if it would force Bo to move (big negative with the bat but dang that glove - every pitcher on earth would want to pitch here with him at SS and someone has to hit 9th). I'd probably chase Longoria as SF would probably give him away right now (hit bat is now sub 100 OPS+) but he'd be near perfect, great fielding, can fill in for 2 years (left on contract, owed $36.3 mil over next 2 years including buyout of 3rd year - could be a place to send Roark's contract, too good an OF to take Grichuk)

“I try my best not to know athletes views on things. Athletes aren't known for their brains and sophistication. I'd rather not know.”

Yeah this fascination with what celebrities’ views are- sports, entertainment whatever- drives me nuts. Spreading their comments on social media is bad enough but now mainstream news services are actively doing it sometimes at the expense of experts who actually know what they are talking about.

I care as much about their views as those of the guy that changes my tires.

Having said that, truly obnoxious comments turn me off athletes as much as those of the local garage. But. the tire guy is smart enough to keep them to himself and his buddies.

According to Scott Mitchell, there is truth to the Jays discussing a trade for Bryant and Hendricks. It would cost some prospects/young players for sure but would be a massive upgrade and basically fill the Jays' big needs in one move and Hendricks is under contract until 2024 (and one more team option year).

I like that idea as long as the cost in prospects isn't too prohibitive. Bryant is under contract for only one more year, and there is no guarantee that he'll bounce back in 2021. Hendricks is 31 and may or may not perform well over the next few years.

The Jays would probably have to give up a couple of top ten prospects, plus one or two lesser-but-decent prospects, to make that deal happen.

Looking at Chatwood's bonus structure at MLBTR, it certainly seems he'll have the opportunity to be in the starters mix rather than simply placed the pen.

Padres re-up on Profar for 3/21M.

All in, it seems.

It seems like he'll start in the pen but would be compensated if they decided to throw him back in the rotation.

They need to trade a catcher. I'd give them Grichuk if they want him. They already have Ian Happ and Heyward.
They dropped Scharber for nothing Nico Hoerner might be their current CF.
Hendriks would cost a couple of pitching prospects.
The Jays don't really have that many.

If the Cubs are rebuilding, I don't see why they would want someone like Teoscar or Grichuk. I imagine they would prefer to select from prospects like Orelvis, Kirk, Moreno, Groshans, Manoah, Hiraldo, Kloffenstein.

" I try my best not to know athletes view on things. Athletes aren't known for their brains and sophistication. I'd rather not know ".

While it's true an empty barrel makes the most noise when it tips over, I feel this blanket statement does a disservice to the Black Lives Matter movement. I have seen many black athletes speak eloquently, or just plainly, on racial injustice and how it makes them feel, and how society, as a whole, needs to change.

Arash Madani did a piece recently on how black athletes helped sway the U.S. election by urging people to get out and vote. Atlanta Hawks players convinced ownership to open their stadium, turning it into one of the largest voting centers in the country, and Georgia turned out to be not only a pivotal state in the general election, but in the two senate seats that were contested later.

In general, yes, we hear a lot of drivel from athletes but that is due, in part, because of the media's constant desire for new content, no matter how trivial. Athletes have a whole host of social media platforms now such as tik tok, twitter, instagram, etc., etc. and there is much posted that is useless, but there is also some views and statements that shouldn't be ignored. Too bad there isn't a garbage filter on social media.

You're probably right, greenfrog.  They don't have much pitching at all and they are probably looking at a longer-term rebuild.

If the Cubs would want a lot of prospects, I'd just rather go via free agency. Sign Paxton/Walker and one of Didi/Semien/Franco/Gonzalez. Not quite as good but close enough to justify not having to give up top prospects. I do think Groshans/Martin are probably pretty close to that majors and don't see SWR as far away either. If you think about it, if someone was in A+ 2 years ago. If they were playing last year, you'd expect a A+/AA placement and this year would be starting in AA/AAA. Now these prospects missed development for sure because of the lost season, but I wouldn't necessarily put them back to where they left off.

Well done Padres - Profar & Kim on reasonable deals - I'm jealous.

Old friend Anthony Bass joins Kim Ng's Marlins on what's reported to be a 2 year/$5 million deal. I think that's fairly reasonable for Bass. He was effective for us last year. J.A. Happ signed a one year/$8 million dollar deal with Minnesota.

With respect to the Cubs, if the Jays are taking Bryant for a year and Hendriks primarily as a contract dump, that's okay. If they are trading upper-level prospect capital to get them, I'd rather pass.

I like Hendricks but I worry about the Blue Jays subpar infield defence - too bad Darvish probably didn't want to come here.

Island Boy i couldn't agree more with you there.

And there are plenty of smart informed athletes worth a listen to.

But imo that's the exception not the rule and I'm not going to be too upset at an athlete that's not too smart or informed, unless it's something truly egregious.

And tbh, even some athletes who have spoken eloquently about BLM have other beliefs and comments that I find disappointing as well.

Profar is still only 28, but I don't get the 2 opt outs in his contract.
He already produced at a career high last (shortened) year.
Is he going to opt out if Kim hits and he gets benched?
The way things are set up, he'll play mostly in the outfield.
Is it a kind of poison pill to avoid being traded?

Pass on Hendricks/Bryant if it involves top prospects. Hendricks doesn't have elite stuff other than control which is always a question mark in the AL East. Bryant has expiring contract.

Top prospects I'll include for a controllable player or for expiring contract that is extended. The one player I would go all in for, if he agrees to extend, is Trevor Story.

Story, Seager, Correa are all free agents end of season, and slight chance of Lindor. I'm not as sold on Bichette as the best player on the Jays like everyone in the media is saying. He's played 76 games in MLB, not even half a season.

Like other posters have said, go after quality 2/3 starters like Paxton or Walker and keep the prospects.

Happ has been formally announced by the Twins, leaving another 3 holes in their 40 roster.
The Jays have to DFA someone with every signing and trading someone for only prospects would have the same result.

The Jays need a starting pitcher who can dominate in the playoffs. I'm not sure they currently have anyone who fits this description (Ryu ran out of gas last year and proved hittable in the final game, and he'll be a year older in 2021). Pearson might get there at some point.

Paxton? Walker? Hendricks? When healthy, Paxton has the most dominant stuff of the three, but even he has come up a bit short in the postseason in recent years.

If we're being honest, the team may need to add someone like Bauer or Castillo if they plan on making a serious run in the next year or two.

They can just bullpen their way through.
The problem is getting there.

Youneverknow.  Pearson might be that pitcher this year.  You also can win in the playoffs without a great pitcher by simply having a devastating offence (as the 1993 Jays did).  That is another possibility for the 2021 Blue Jays if one or two of the young players develops better than anticipated. 

Agreed it's not impossible that the Jays could find a way to compete in the postseason without making one of those moves. But they can improve their odds of succeeding by adding a seriously good SP. Better to have both offense and pitching (and defense), than offense alone.

There's no rule that pitching has to be added now, of course. But elite starting pitching tends to be very pricey at the summer trade deadline.

During the season they "must" believe that they can come back from any deficit. They do that against Boston quite often. They also have to develop a pen that can hold a good team scoreless when they have to.

I like this offense to do its job.

I like Zeuch to get an easy ground ball. So if he pitched multiple innings the day before in the playoffs and is asked to get a 2 on 1 out ground ball double play he has to believe he can do it. Timlin in 1992.

Verlander - what a pitcher.

Whether executed in the off-season or regular season, any trade should be a good trade on the merits. Desperation can lead to moves like Erik Bedard in exchange for Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, and two others (2008).

Hector Perez gone for ptbnl or cash considerations. Sent to the Reds basically to clear up a roster slot for Springer I suspect. 1 2/3 IP last year in the majors, then sent away. Ah well. Was marginal on the roster at this point. Walked 5+ per 9 IP throughout the minors. Came here from Houston as part of the Osuna trade.

For me it's pretty simple - adding a 4+war type pitcher like Bauer for only money makes us an instant contender, and arguably the 3rd best team behind NYY and LAD. Even without any other moves at all.

and that would be true for the next few years too.

And then its much easier after doing that to to grab some more moderate upgrades to try to work our way up to favorites.

And for me, he's a 3 WAR pitcher with an ERA just a little under 4 in the AL East.  It makes a big, big difference.  I see him as a very useful and likely durable #2 pitcher behind Ryu.  That's nothing to sneeze at, but not the same kind of thing as his baseball devotees imagine from him.   

Who would be a better value play for the Jays - Kolten Wong or Cesar Hernandez?

WAR adjusts for much of those kinds of effects though. Ryu didn't suffer any real drop coming over.

Avg of fip and ra9 wars:

Ryu 13: 4.3war/32
Ryu 14: 3.9war/32
Ryu 15: ---
Ryu 16: ---
Ryu 17: 1.5war/32
Ryu 18: 4.9war/32
Ryu 19: 6.4war/32
Career: 3.8war/32
3-Year: 4.3war/32
2-Year: 5.9war/32

Ryu 20: 5.5war/32



Bauer 14: 1.7war/32
Bauer 15: 2.0war/32
Bauer 16: 2.9war/32
Bauer 17: 3.0war/32
Bauer 18: 7.2war/32
Bauer 19: 2.8war/32
Bauer 20: 8.7war/32
Career: 3.4war/32
3-Year: 5.4war/32
2-Year: 4.3war/32

Bauer 21: ?

Sure, but they did really well in 2016 by splitting the money between Happ and Estrada.
I'd be OK with any Tanaka or Paxton or someone like that.
I'm not crazy about Odorizzi.

Bauer is going to be expensive.

That one I saw coming.
There were too many pitchers ahead of Perez for him to get any chance this year and he was running out of options.
I liked that Castro had 2 options left.

I dunno. Comparing Bauer and Ryu is pretty though.
We don't know how Ryu will do over a full year.
Bauer is so resistant to injury that he wants to pitch on 3 days rest all year to have a chance at an IL stint.

TB - Glasnow, Morton, Snell (McKay, Honeywell coming in 2021)
LAD - Buehler, Kershaw, Urias, Dustin May (David Price coming in 2021)
ATL - Anderson, Soroka, Fried (Morton, Smyly coming in 2021)
HOU - Greinke, Valdez, McCullers (Whitley, Verlander coming in 2021)
Those were your top 4 teams. Compare their SP against Ryu, Pearson (innings limit in 2021)...

WAR does not adjust for division strength to the best of my knowledge. It was a huge issue with the schedule particularly last year. Ryu came from the West- different kettle of fish.

The Red Sox signed Kike Hernandez for 2/14M including some money deferrals.
That does not look like the kind of deals that will please the crowd in Boston.
Jeter Down will probably take over at second next base next year.
They also seem to be chasing Garett Richards.

Mets seems to be the leader on Bauer with the Blue Jays, Angels and Dodgers involved to some degrees.

The Jays and Angels are also linked to Odorizzi, along with the Giants, Twins and Red Sox.

The Jays are also targeting Paxton.

No real news on Walker so far. The Mariners don't even seem interested.

Pretty quiet with respect to Tanaka. He seems to want at least 15M. Might return to Japan.

So, it seems safe to say the Jays' next move would be to add a starter and then see what they can do at third base.

Via ShiDavidi's Twitter feed...
Structure of George Springer's deal with #BlueJays, per source: $10m signing bonus; $22m in 2021; $28m in 2022; $22.5m in 2023-26; $150K for MVP; $50K each for all-star, Gold Glove, Silver Slugger, WS MVP; 8-team no trade. For cap purposes it is $25 per, but this way the Jays get $60 million off the books in years 1 and 2 (the most likely years to be impacted by COVID & labor strife). Solid setup.

8-team no trade

From BBBanter:

"for once, we know that a premier player’s no-trade list would not include Toronto."

It sounds as if Hand is going to make a decision soon about where to sign. He has had an excellent career, but I don’t love the drop in velocity last year (although he was effective in the short season).

Hand would give them a very deep bullpen but there are a lot of clubs jockeying for position. Not typically the type of scenario in which they win.

Jameson Taillon is reportedly on the trade block. He could be a useful addition for the Jays.

Hmmm. 3 years to free agency, entering age 28 season, 112 ERA+ as a starter (but in the NL Central) 8.1 K/9 vs 2.3 BB/9 so lots of good there. The question is what do the Pirates want for him? I'd expect a lot as 3 years pre-free agency is a lot of time.

He had Tommy John surgery in Aug. 2019 but is apparently now ready to go. He was very good in 2018 with a 3.9 fWAR season.

I see on MLBTR that it was his second TJ surgery. That would seem to diminish his value significantly (not sure what the track record of pitchers who have had two TJs is).

I see the signing bonus in Springer's contract as a way of partially avoiding the tax hit.

I'm guessing he's got the western teams on his no-trade list.
Usually, once on a huge contract, you don't get traded to non-competitive teams.

Taillon might cost a lot. This is a Pirate system that has a lot of info on the Jays system.
You always have to check though.
2016, he threw 104 innings + 62 in AAA.
2017, he threw 133 innings + 14 in AA,AAA (rehabing, following surgery for testicular cancer)
2018, he threw 191 innings.
2019, he threw 37 innings and  blew his elbow.
2020, nothing.
2021, how much can you push him?
1 year would be fine, but I don't know if I'd buy 3 years.
Maybe 2 and half if he can show that he's really good.
I don't think the Pirates would be desperate to trade him yet.
Taillon is a Canadian from Florida. His parents were Canadian.
He threw for Team Canada in the 2013 World Classic.
The Pirates spent 6.5M on his signing bonus. Second highest in MLB history.
He had his first TJ in 2014 and missed all of 2015 to an hernia.

10M for Garrett Richards seems like a lot.
The Red Sox were interested in Profar.
The infield market is progressing.
Pitchers and catchers are reporting in less than a month.

Isn't the tax hit a straight $25 million per season?

Depending on how many games are played this season, salaries could again be prorated, but he gets the full bonus irrespectively.

For luxury tax purposes, the signing bonus is just treated as part of the salary, so it's averaged over the length of the contract as well.

The 'cap hit' is $25M per year.

I meant the Canadian/Ontario tax hit.
The signing bonus would be charged in his home state.
After that, the tax on his salary is charged where each game is played.
Florida is great as they have no income tax--like Texas.

For the Jays' purpose, it's front loaded. Which I like, but not by much.

Taillon to Yanks for 4 prospects...

Return per Passan:
RHP Miguel Yajure (#15)
RHP Roansy Contreras (#19)
SS Maikol EscottoOF Canaan Smith (#21)

Similar return could have been Van Eyk, Brown, Murphy and Machado from the Jays

Escotto is the key to this deal, but still seems a little light for the Yankees. If Jays sign Free agent starters then I'm happy they passed on this deal to preserve the farm...IF they sign one or two guys like Hand, Odorizzi, Paxton etc

Taillon is good friends with Gerrit Cole as they played together in the Pirates organization. He'll be making under 3 million and could be good for them if his arm holds up. ( He had reconstructive elbow surgery in 2019)

On FG, the last Yankee update compared to the Jays 2021 list would be something like Hiraldo, Van Eyck, de Castro and Kloff.

Escotto is only 18 but has looked good in Rookie ball 2 years ago.

Yajure threw 7 innings in 3 outings against the Rays, Orioles and Marlins and allowed only 1 run on a single homerun.
He's probably a starter for the Pirates.

Smith has upside as a left handed corner outfielder.
He was a 4th round draft pick.

Contreras still project as an end of rotation starter and was also on the 40 roster.
This creates one roster spot for LeMahieu or Kluber.

Taillon is a ground ball pitcher. The Yankees defense is not great.
It's a good move for them, but the Jays can probably top it with a free agent signing.

The Pirates wanted low level prospects with high upside.
The Yankees wanted to trade guys already on their 40 roster so that they don't lose some for nothing.

So, it seems a mix of that.

The Jays really need to trade a catcher on the 40 roster, so any smart package for a starter would include one.
Maybe the Pirates wanted Moreno.

Note that Albert Abreu is out of options for the Yankees.
So is Tauchman and newly acquired Greg Allen.

I think roster construction is going to be different this year with most teams counting on needing 8-9 guys who can start. Nobody threw 85 innings last season and not many threw more than 70. To ask for a few guys to go 175 might be a lot. I can see some things like lot of tandem starts and 6 man rotations as well.

I like this move for the Yankees. The Yankees are building quality depth at SP. I wouldn’t be surprised if Taillon is good in the next two years, even if his longer-term health is uncertain.

Love Bill James recent statement on Biggio - 159 games, 112 walks, 24 home runs, scored 107 runs, grounded into only 2 double plays, and is 20 for 20 stealing bases. - pretty short but dead simple. Showing what a damn fine player he has been even if many still doubt him (like Keith Law who still sees him as a backup only). His stat line for his 2 seasons is 240/368/430 116 OPS+ - very nice rookie season (if you merge 2019/2020). Vlad has a few more games - 183 - with a line of 269/336/442 109 OPS+, very nice but not as good as Biggio. Bo is only at 75 games 307/347/549 137 OPS+ (double his HR to a full season and you get 32, with 100 R and 88 RBI's). I love having all 3 around and if they can improve together the next few years the Jays could have a tough choice to make when they hit free agency in 5 years.

Yeah, we're probably going to see lots of pitchers on the IL this year.
I like that the Jays will have a fairly decent group in AAA.

Hand to the Nats for 1/10.5.

A lot of teams screwed up here.
Cleveland for not taking the option and trading him.
Nationals and others who would give him 10M now.

This. Why wouldn't you have just taken the contract on waivers? Seems totally silly.
Maybe some kind of old-boys-network unwritten rule?

NYY made a luxury trade tax with Boston it seems. Boston gets Adam Ottavino and F German. NYY don't get anything is being reported.

I don't think it was an old-boys network thing. I suspect that a lot of teams didn't want to claim Hand at that time, as they were waiting to see how some of the other big free agents played out.

The Nationals ended up paying $500,00 more, but that's not the end of the world. It sounds like the Mets have gotten victimized by the fact that Hand went on waivers during an uncertain time for their front office.

It's like everybody was happy to let Cleveland pay the 1M to buy back the option.
It's great for Hand. He got to pick his team and got an extra 1.5M.

I suspect some teams also suspected COVID would hit the market harder. It's hit some teams harder, and it's probably hitting mid-level free agents, but elite, or potentially elite, free agents are still doing well. And, Hand is a top-level free agent at his position, behind only Hendriks.

The PA has held fast to any concession over the number of games played.
As long as the players are paid for 162 games, the owners will make them play those games.
It could be a crushing schedule once Covid-19 delays start to spring up.